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The Julia La Roche Show

English, Finance, 1 season, 173 episodes, 6 days, 5 hours, 20 minutes
About
Julia La Roche, a veteran financial journalist, brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and the emerging names she finds fascinating. In each episode, Julia dives deep into the lives and minds of her guests, uncovering their stories, experiences, and insights. Whether you’re interested in finance, technology, entrepreneurship, or want to hear compelling stories and pick up some worldly wisdom, this podcast is for you. Tune in every Tuesday and Thursday, and join Julia for some enlightening conversations.
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#172 John Cochrane On The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level, Causes Of Inflation, And The Need To Stop Throwing Money Down Trillion-dollar Rat Holes

John Cochrane, the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and former professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and, before that, the Department of Economics, joins Julia on episode 172. Professor Cochrane is the author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level book, and he writes the Grumpy Economist blog. and In this episode, Professor Cochrane discusses the current state of the US economy, the fiscal theory of the price level, the causes and challenges of inflation, and the concerning levels of government debt. He emphasizes the need for supply-side efficiency and fiscal discipline to sustain economic growth and control inflation. Cochrane also highlights the limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the importance of responsible fiscal policy in addressing the fiscal picture. He suggests reforming the tax code, social programs and reducing middle-class subsidies are necessary to ensure long-term sustainability.  Cochrane concludes by emphasizing the need to pay attention to incentives and the interconnectedness of various policies. He also mentions the potential of AI and biotech to drive future growth and warns against stifling innovation. Takeaways:  The US economy is currently experiencing low unemployment and a bout of inflation caused by government stimulus. The fiscal theory of the price level explains that money, government debt, and inflation are interconnected, and the quantity of money and government bonds both impact inflation. The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has limitations in controlling inflation, and fiscal policy plays a crucial role in addressing inflation and government debt. To fix the fiscal picture, it is necessary to reform the tax code, social programs, and reduce middle-class subsidies to ensure long-term sustainability. Responsible fiscal policy, economic growth, and steady primary surpluses are essential to control inflation and maintain a stable economy. The US economy may be more fragile than it appears, with concerns about the ability to pay back debts and the difficulty of selling longer-term debt. Forecasting inflation is challenging, and the Federal Reserve and other forecasters have often missed the mark. The mechanics of inflation are similar to the stock market, and there are risks of higher inflation in certain scenarios. Fiscal dominance refers to the constraint on monetary policy caused by fiscal policy. The ability to control inflation through fiscal policy may be more challenging now. The Federal Reserve was slow to act on inflation and needs to consider a wider range of scenarios and incentives in its decision-making process. The biggest economic story in our lifetimes is long-term growth and the importance of embracing new technologies and innovation. Incentives play a crucial role in solving economic problems and driving growth. Social programs and the tax code need to be examined together to understand the full impact on incentives and redistribution. The interconnectedness of policies and the need to consider the whole system when addressing economic challenges. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/JohnHCochrane Website: https://www.johnhcochrane.com/ Substack: https://substack.com/@grumpyeconomist Book: https://www.amazon.com/Fiscal-Theory-Price-Level/dp/0691242240 Timestamps:  00:00 Intro and welcome John Cochrane  01:30 Macro picture and understanding inflation 04:00 We’re a supply-limited economy, more money and stimulus thrown down ratholes won’t make the economy grow  05:30 The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level 11:35 Limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy 17:00 History lesson on 1970s, 1980s inflation  19:00 Fiscal picture today and possible solutions  25:00 The fragility of the US economy 31:00 More persistent inflation 37:55 Fiscal Dominance 41:00 Assessing the Fed's actions 48:00 Long-run growth is the only thing that matters 53:00 The Role of Incentives 
5/23/202458 minutes, 36 seconds
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#171 Dave Friedberg, CEO Of Ohala And Co-Host of The All-In Podcast, On The New Breakthrough Can Boost Crop Yields By 50-100% And Could Change Farming Forever

Investor and entrepreneur Dave Friedberg, the CEO of The Production Board and CEO of Ohalo and co-host/"Bestie" on The All-In Podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 171 to discuss his company's breakthrough technology that could solve world hunger. Ohalo, a startup that's been in stealth mode, recently filed a patent for its groundbreaking technology, Boosted Breeding. This novel, non-transgenic plant breeding system has the potential to revolutionize agriculture by sustainably increasing crop productivity and yields by 50 to 100%. After years of research by Ohalo's scientists, the technology has been proven effective across various crops. The technology can be applied to a wide range of food crops, including those that currently lack commercial seed systems, such as potatoes. With its significant potential to enhance food availability and sustainability, Ohalo's Boosted Breeding is poised to make a substantial impact on the global agricultural landscape.  Links:  Twitter/X: https://x.com/friedberg Ohalo: https://ohalo.com/ The Production Board: https://www.tpb.co/ The All-In Pod: https://www.allinpodcast.co/ Episode 18 featuring Dave Friedberg: https://youtu.be/0ARf45HiS1M?si=yWFwnCPdJ1fv_Nxj Timestamps:  0:00 Intro and welcome back Dave Friedberg 1:42 Big picture + challenges facing humans today  3:18 A new enlightenment or a new dark ages?  6:33 Independent thought and understanding through reason  9:15 Ohalo and Boosted Breeding breakthrough  13:20 Going all in as CEO of Ohalo  18:00 Results from Boosted Breeding  22:44 Benefits to farmers  27: 52 Potential impacts of the technology  34:30 State of the economy, No. 1 issue is debt  41:00 Optimism is technology and productivity gains  45:17 Parting thoughts 
5/21/202447 minutes, 49 seconds
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#170 Bob Elliott: The Biggest Risk For Equity Investors Is The Economy Remains Too Strong

Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 170. In this episode, Elliott discusses the macro picture and highlights that the economy is in an income-driven expansion, where people are spending out of their income, leading to sustainable growth. However, this income dominance is creating challenges for the Federal Reserve, as inflation remains elevated and nominal growth is strong. Elliott believes that the Fed will continue to collect more information before making any significant policy changes.  He points out that assets are in an “air pocket” right now, and that the biggest risk for equity investors is the economy remains too strong, creating pressure on the bond market. He suggests that investors should consider holding more cash, allocate a portion to gold and commodities, and be cautious about stocks and bonds. Links: Twitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BobEUnlimited Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Bob Elliott  01:15 Macro picture today + income-driven economic expansion  03:34 Different angles of looking at inflation  06:11 Fed's policy outlook 09:15 Implications of higher for longer  11:50 Long-end of the bond market is the critical driver of asset prices 14:47 The biggest risk for equity investors is the economy remains too strong that creates pressure on the bond market 16:00 Allocating in this setup  18:30 We’re in an 'air pocket’ right now  23:19 The Fed 25:50 Gold allocation and commodities  30:10 Parting thoughts  32:46 Confusion of the income-driven expansion 36:00 Recession
5/16/202438 minutes, 55 seconds
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#169 Carol Roth: The Stagflationary Economy Is Making A Resurgence 

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 169 to discuss the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve, the impact of deficit spending, and the challenges faced by small businesses.  Links:   You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/  Follow Carol Roth on Twitter: https://twitter.com/caroljsroth Timestamps:  0:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth 1:15 Macro picture, assessment of the economy  2:30 Massive inflation in assets  3:20 Economy has been “window dressed”  5:40 Deficit-driven economy  8:30 Fiscal dominance  10:45 Stagflation  15:00 The Fed 17:00 Debt  20:00 Gold  24:00 State of small business today 
5/14/202431 minutes, 45 seconds
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#168 The ‘Acid Capitalist’ Hugh Hendry On The Fed’s No-Win Situation, The Fragility Of Valuations, Gold As ‘The Alchemy Of Chaos,’ Buying Bitcoin, And The Dangerous Sign The Japanese Yen Is Sending

The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry joins Julia La Roche again, this time in the East Village, for an in-person, unfiltered conversation on macro and more.  Links:  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial Timestamps:  0:00 Intro and welcome 1:36 Macro view and the Fed’s no-win situation  2:45 Revisiting financial history  4:20 The U.S. has become the economic locomotive of global growth 5:00 Policy error of fiscal conservatism  6:30 Everything is expensive 7:52 Invest 10% of net worth  9:00 Hugh’s hedge fund years  12:24 ‘To manage a lot of money you have to be serious.’ — the suits 19:07 Looking at charts and patterns while listening to Pink Floyd 24:30 China 36:19 The bubble today - the fragility of valuations  38:00 How you want to be allocated  44:16 The conceit and the arrogance of a well-formed argument   47:00 Hugh’s mistake buying Reader’s Digest in the 90s 48:48 Hugh’s go-to interview question: Tell me when you know it’s going wrong 50:44 Gold’s breakout — not an agent of chaos, the alchemy of chaos 52:24 Japanese Yen  53:49 Bitcoin  57:09 Silver  1:01:50 The Fed’s no-win situation  1:06:49 The Fed shouldn't be cutting interest rates 1:08:47 Present danger 1:11:00 The death of money? 1:15:00 Millennials and Bitcoin 1:18:43 The Bono story
5/9/20241 hour, 21 minutes, 31 seconds
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#167 Michael Pento: If Rates Don't Come Down Across The Yield Curve Relatively Quickly, The Economy's In For Big Trouble

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 167 to discuss the current state of the economy and the potential risks ahead.  In this episode, Pento highlights the rising inflation rate, the burden on the middle class, and the unsustainable levels of debt. Pento predicts a slowdown in GDP growth and the possibility of a negative quarter in the second half of the year. He believes that the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates and engage in quantitative easing to stimulate the economy.  Pento also discusses the potential impact on the housing market, equities, and the bond market. He suggests overweighting energy, base metals, and gold in a stagflationary environment. Links:  https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 00:00 Intro and welcome Michael Reno 00:54 Macro view, inflation, and the bankrupting of the middle class 4:08 If rates don’t come down the economy is in trouble  5:49 Fed rate cuts ahead this year?  8:00 Market is massively overvalued  9:36 Stagflation and how to invest in that environment  11:32 Home prices  13:50 Why Powell can’t wait to end QT now  15:23 Long-term yields might not come down 16:00 Explosion of rates in high-yield will crush the economy 17:27 Gold  20:00 Erosion of the middle class
5/7/202421 minutes, 47 seconds
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#166 Nancy Davis: 'Whatever They Say, The Opposite Happens' — Fed Meeting Reaction, Why Inflation Is Here To Stay, And The Opportunity For Investors

Nancy Davis, founder and portfolio manager of Quadratic Capital Management, joins The Julia La Roche for episode 166 to react to the May Fed Meeting and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged.  In this episode, Nancy shares that inflation is a persistent issue that cannot be easily resolved. However, she sees this as an opportunity for investors, as many people do not have inflation-protected bonds or exposure to the rates market in their core bond portfolios. Nancy notes that during the last period of high inflation in the 1970s, people often turned to commodities and cyclical equities because the interest rate derivative markets, rates market, and even the inflation-protected bond market did not exist at that time. She adds that investors now have more options to protect their portfolios against inflation compared to the past. Links: IVOL: https://ivoletf.com/ Quadratic Capital: https://quadraticllc.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/nancy__davis 0:00 Intro and welcome Nancy Davis 0:59 FOMC reaction  1:22 Fed allowing mortgages to run off 2:30 Volatility, explained  3:15 Fed interest rate policy  5:19 Be really careful about not focusing too much on consensus and looking more at what's priced in. 5:59 Rate cuts this year/ inflation exposure in investor portfolios 7:36 Opportunity in rates 10:49 IVOL (Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF) 15:48 Rates market a leading indicator for you 18:04 Macro picture  19:47 Inflation protected bond market  22:45 Inverted yield curve  24:13 Bonds a good buy?  25:18 Will the Fed cut this year? Will they cut before the election?  26: 22 Assessment of the Federal Reserve/ stagflation?  29:03 Nancy's background 32:40 Parting thoughts 
5/2/202438 minutes, 42 seconds
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#165 Jim Bianco On Stickier Inflation, A 10-20% Chance Of A Rate Hike, And Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Surge To 5-5.5%

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy.  In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation.  Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system.  Links:  BiancoResearch.com  BiancoAdvisors.com twitter.com/biancoresearch  Timestamps:  0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro  0:59 Macro picture  1:49 Stickier inflation  4:27 Bifurcated economy 6:06 Interest rate policy outlook  7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political  9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5%  12:00 The Fed doesn’t change policy in the summer up to election day  13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5%  19:59 Demographics  24:01 Bitcoin ETF  31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million 34:10 Parting thoughts 
4/30/202437 minutes, 28 seconds
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#164 Chris Whalen On Higher Interest Rates, Illiquidity, And The Death Of Leverage

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets. He highlights the dichotomy between the consumer side, which is doing relatively well, and the commercial side, which is suffering due to low interest rates and illiquidity. Whalen predicts that interest rates will rise, leading to a preference for income-focused investments and a shift away from speculative pricing.  He also emphasizes the need for reimagining and redeveloping cities to address the challenges in the commercial real estate sector. Overall, Whalen believes that the economy is producing nominal growth but that people are struggling due to rising costs. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Death of Leverage; What’s the WAC of Bank America? https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/the-death-of-leverage-what-s-the-wac-of-bank-america Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen  0:55 Macro view, we’re in a weird dichotomy   2:55 Higher interest rates  4:03 Rate outlook  7:13 5 handle on 10-year treasury  10:18 The death of leverage  12:00 Confidence  16:43 Silent crisis in commercial real estate  20:25 A qualitative recession  25:15 Election year  27:23 Higher rates and impact on investor behavior  32:30 Goodbye 
4/25/202433 minutes, 39 seconds
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#163 Professor Scott Galloway: We're Turning Into Something That's Not Very American

Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, returns to the pod to join Julia La Roche on episode 163 to discuss his newest book, “The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security.”  The Algebra of Wealth book: https://www.amazon.com/Algebra-Wealth-Formula-Financial-Security/dp/0593714024 0:00 Intro and welcome Scott Galloway  1:04 Macro picture of the economy  3:03 Prosperity is not evenly distributed generationally  5:32 The Algebra of Wealth  7:30 Don’t follow your passion, follow your talent  9:20 Focus + Stoicism x Time x Diversification  9:56 Galloway went broke twice  12:25 Divorce  13:30 Having children  15:35 Myth of balance  17:00 Raised by a single mom  21:00 We’re turning into something that’s not very American  25:31 Investing and harvesting  27:00 Our economic policy is we’ve declared war on the young  24:47 Universities, free speech, and antisemitism on campuses  32:32 DEI  38:15 Masculinity  50:00 Parting thoughts
4/23/202451 minutes, 4 seconds
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#162 Keith Fitz-Gerald, Investor Who Nailed 2023 Market Rally, Says The Fed Doesn’t Matter — Investing In Optimism Does

Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal of the Fitz-Gerald Group, shares his macro view of the world and the five big picture lenses through which he sees the world. He believes that investing in optimism and knowing where the world is going is better than trying to be right at specific moments in time. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that have great demand for their products and services and can change consumer behavior. Keith also discusses the role of the Fed and the importance of investing in optimism rather than trying to second-guess the unpredictable actions of the Fed. Link: https://www.keithfitz-gerald.com/ 00:00 Introduction and welcome Keith to the show 0:53 Simple is better 1:50 The five Ds 2:50 Does the Fed matter?  5:30 The AI Opportunity and Changing the World 8:22 Keith Fitz-Gerald’s S&P 4750 target in 2023  10:50 Buying right now — chaos creates opportunity  13:00 History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes  14:00 Geopolitics and markets  15:55 When in doubt, zoom out  17:13 Portfolio construction  19:03 Took out S&P 500 price target, 5500-5600 may be next stop 20:20 The Fed needs to stay on sidelines  22:40 Are markets healthy?  26:00 Outlook for the U.S.  26:50 Gold  29:20 Parting thoughts
4/18/202431 minutes, 3 seconds
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#161 Michael Howell On Global Liquidity, A Re-entry Point For Risk Assets, Monetary Inflation, Gold, The US Dollar

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 161 to discuss the global liquidity cycle and its impact on the economy.  He explains that liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and that the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. Howell argues that the focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced, and that the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. He also highlights the importance of liquidity in the refinancing of debt and warns of the risks of a liquidity shortage. Howell suggests that investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation. Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 Takeaways Liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. The focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced; the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. A shortage of liquidity can lead to banking and refinancing crises. Investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation. Timestamps:  00:00 Introduction  1:38 Macro view + liquidity cycle  3:07 Interest rates  6:10 What really matters is the integrity of the US Treasury market  07:47 Hedging Against Monetary Inflation 9:16 Gold 11:56 US public debt  15:15 Monetizing the debt  18:06 Gold is the pole star in the financial system 20:40 US dollar 26:29 Inverted yield curve 31:37 Conclusion and parting thoughts
4/16/202435 minutes, 22 seconds
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#160 Bill Fleckenstein: The Fed Is Trapped And Unable To Fight Inflation

Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, discusses the macro view of the world and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies.  He criticizes the Fed for its incompetence and reckless policies that have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital.  Fleckenstein also highlights the power of the passive bid in distorting the market and the importance of understanding its effects. He believes that the stock market has become a lagging indicator and that the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation.  Elsewhere, Fleckenstein discusses the bond market, gold, and silver.  He also expresses concerns about the US national debt and the lack of fiscal responsibility. Links:  Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website:https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/ Takeaways The Federal Reserve's incompetence and reckless policies have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital. The passive bid, driven by defined contribution plans and 401k plans, has distorted the market and changed what works and what doesn't. The stock market has become a lagging indicator, and the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation. The US national debt is a significant concern, and there is a lack of fiscal responsibility. Gold and silver are seen as insurance policies against inflation and financial disruptions. Chapters 0:00 Introduction and welcome Bill Fleckenstein 0:55 Macro view and what the Fed does really matters 4:30 The distorting effects of the passive bid 6:30 The stock market is a lagging indicator  10:45 Equity markets in a bubble or not?  13:30 End game — long end of the bond market rates rise 18:26 Inflation and the inflation psychology   23:53 The Fed’s inflation fight, Fed cutting rates would be an obvious mistake 26:30 The economy and millennials  29:49 Gold price, gold market has figured out Fed is trapped  34:44 Silver 37:04 Outlook on the U.S. and conclusion
4/11/202443 minutes, 42 seconds
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#159 Lyn Alden On Fiscal Dominance Macro Backdrop, Why The Rise In Gold Is Indicative Of Fiscal Problems, And Why Bitcoin Could Hit Six-Figures In This Cycle

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 159 to discuss the macro view of the economy, focusing on fiscal dominance.  Alden highlights the wide performance gaps between sectors, which are influenced by fiscal and monetary policies. She discusses the implications of fiscal dominance and the challenges it poses for the Fed's tools to control inflation.  Alden also shares her insights on asset markets, including the rise of gold, Bitcoin, and undervalued energy stocks. Links:  https://www.lynalden.com/ https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6 https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact 00:00 Introduction and overview 01:16 Fiscal dominance and its impact sectors 04:37 Fiscal dominance, explained  09:37 Higher highs, higher lows of inflations in 2020s 12:20 Ironically stimulative  16:18 Assessment of the economy, is it healthy?  18:53 Asset markets, rise in gold is indicative of fiscal problems  22:00 undervalued energy stocks and their catalysts 25:33 Insights on Bitcoin, its performance, why it could hit six-figures in next two years 30:17 Conclusion and parting thoughts
4/9/202432 minutes, 49 seconds
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#158 Larry McDonald: We’re Entering A Sustained Inflation Regime, Why Trillions Of Dollars Are Currently Misallocated, And The Opportunity Right Now In Hard Assets

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss his newest book, “How To Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy.” According to McDonald, we’re in the financial equivalent of the “Fourth Turning,” where the macro regime has shifted from a disinflationary, austerity-driven world to a new era of sustained inflation and increased demand for hard assets. As such, trillions of dollars of assets are currently misallocated.  McDonald highlights the potential for a colossal energy and commodity crisis in the coming years, driven by factors such as the aging power grid, global conflicts, and rising carbon consumption in developing countries. He suggests reallocating portfolios to include a higher component of commodities. Links:  How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ 00:00 Introduction and welcome Larry McDonald  01:21 The macro outlook and the shift to a new era 06:00 A different macro regime, great migration into a totally different portfolio construction 09:05 Inflation 11:53 Trillions are misallocated  16:00 Recency bias 20:23 Early innings in commodities  22:00 Headed for a colossal commodities crisis  26:57 Bitcoin, gold, and silver  31:50 Closing remarks
4/4/202434 minutes, 35 seconds
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#157 Dr. Gary Shilling On The Hidden Flaws In The Economy

Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 157 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.  In this episode, Dr. Shilling discusses the current economic picture, including the possibility of a soft landing and signs of a potential recession. He highlights the narrowing focus of the stock market and the amount of speculation in certain areas. Dr. Schilling also discusses the labor market, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and the impact of inflation on interest rates.  Elsewhere, he shares his investment themes, including the US dollar and the preference for US Treasuries. Dr. Shilling addresses the debt situation in the US. He also points to the risks in commercial real estate.  He concludes by emphasizing the importance of finding hidden flaws and going against the consensus in making investment decisions. You can Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll-free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/). 00:00 Introduction and welcome Dr. Shilling 01:01 Current macro picture, economy isn’t looking like it’s going into a major recession 06:21 Not a healthy economy, highly dependent on labor market and employment 07:07 Federal Reserve and interest rate policy 10:09 Consumer bifurcation 11:35 Interest rates 17:40 Hidden flaws  21:00 Investment themes 25:35 US Treasuries  27:26 Debt situation in the US 32:12 Bubble on the radar? Commercial real estate  36:42 Conclusion
4/2/202438 minutes, 19 seconds
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#156 Tom McClellan On Why The Recession Is Still Coming And Why The Second Half Of 2024 Could Be Unpleasant For Stocks

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report and a prominent figure in stock market and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156.  In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices send stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and, of course, the famed McClellan Oscillator.  Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet. Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969.  Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern.  He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.  Links:  https://www.mcoscillator.com/ https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc 0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan  0:55 Macro view  1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks  2:45 Recession is coming  4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits  5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks  8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June  10:57 McClellan Oscillator  13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns  15:20 Taxes could be a problem  20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate — staying too tight for too long  25:30 Recession call  27:27 McClellan Oscillator — neither bulls nor bears are in charge 29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy  35:05 Gold  37:00 Bitcoin 38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story  44:00 Parting thoughts
3/27/202445 minutes, 54 seconds
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#155 Meredith Whitney On The 'Bifurcated' Economy And Consumer, Why It Will 'Pay To Be Patient' For Young Homebuyers, And The Coming 'Silver Tsunami'

Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, discusses the state of the US economy and the consumer.  Last year, she did not expect a recession because of the strong consumer. Today, she describes the economy as “bifurcated” because higher-earning households are driving consumer spending.  Whitney also explores the housing market and predicts a supply glut that will lead to a decline in home prices, making it more affordable for younger generations. She delves into the demographic changes and challenges posed by an aging population, particularly in terms of long-term care and housing.  Whitney also addresses the fiscal position of states and the nation, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget and the potential risks of relying on foreign buyers for debt. Links:  https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/ Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction  01:05 Macro view, bifurcated consumer 04:19 Sentiment  05:58 Housing market and homeownership 09:21 Timeline for home prices 10:38 Demographic changes and solutions 12:31 Demographic trends and aging Americans 20:31 National debt and foreign buyers 22:46 Possibility of a balanced budget 23:44 Fear and impact of research calls 32:11 Meredith Whitney Advisory Group
3/26/202434 minutes, 7 seconds
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#154 Dr. Art Laffer: We Are In The Middle Of A Massive Redistribution Revolution And It's Destroying Growth

Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 154. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics. Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms. In our wide-ranging discussion, Dr. Laffer shares his insights on the current state of the U.S. and global economy, fiscal and monetary policy, and his outlook for the future. Links: https://www.amazon.com/Taxes-Have-Consequences-Income-History/dp/1637585640 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Overview 01:08 The Five Pillars of Prosperity 11:13 Factors Leading to the Current Situation 26:08 Addressing Incentives in Politics 30:41 The Flawed Logic of Stimulus Spending 35:17 The Fallacy of Redistribution 37:38 The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies 38:04 The Lack of Economic Understanding Among Professional Economists 39:02 The Laffer Curve and Tax Rates 40:19 The Role of Private Money in the Economy 44:34 The Possibility of a Low, Broad-Based Flat Tax Rate 50:25 The Failure of Government-Controlled Money 54:30 Assessment of the Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy 57:23 The Importance of Economic Principles over Political Labels 01:01:50 Future Topics: Medical Transparency, Debt, Enterprise Zones, and Climate Change
3/21/20241 hour, 4 minutes, 40 seconds
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#153 Amy Nixon On Inflation Running Hot And Pivoting On The Deflationary Recession Call 

Amy Nixon, a housing and economic analyst, makes her first podcast appearance in six months after making a pivot on her deflationary recession call.  In his episode, Amy discusses the current macroeconomic environment and the challenges it presents. She highlights the combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy as a significant factor in the economy.  Amy shares her experience of adapting her forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions.  She also discusses the state of the housing market, the impact of institutional buyers, and the future of real estate agents. Amy addresses the concerns of millennials in the housing market and offers insights into owning a home as an investment.  Links:  https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW Takeaways The combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy is a significant factor in the current macroeconomic environment. Adapting forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions is crucial for accurate analysis. The housing market is facing challenges due to tight credit, low transaction volume, and high liquidity. Owning a home as an investment can be beneficial for wealth building, especially for individuals without much investment knowledge. The future of the economy is influenced by factors such as inflation, political decisions, and market dynamics. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and macro view of the economy 01:18 Tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy 03:15 The importance of admitting mistakes and analyzing new data 04:12 Adapting forecasts and expectations for 2023 and 2024 04:23 The impact of changing analysis on housing market 09:46 The state of the housing sector 12:38 The impact of institutional buyers on the housing market 21:15 The housing market and Millennials 25:21 Owning a home as an investment 26:03 The Airbnb bust thesis 32:06 Inflation and the future of the economy
3/19/202436 minutes, 13 seconds
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#152 Brian Hirschmann: This Is Probably The Most Dangerous Time In US Financial History

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, makes his debut on episode 152 of The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Hirschmann argues that we're currently in the most dangerous time in financial history and that three bubbles—stocks, real estate, and global bonds—could all burst. Hirschmann also makes the case that we'll likely see more persistent inflation in the future, given the massive deficits and debt burden. He argues that the price of gold could soar to $7,000. For investments, he favors gold miners and exposure to international equities. Links: https://www.hcapital.llc/ 00:00 Introduction and Macro View of the Economy 00:43 Dangerous Time in US Financial History 03:08 Consequences of Crisis Suppression Policy 04:35 US Equity and Real Estate Bubbles 06:27 Government Debt Problem 08:20 Global Government Debt Crisis 09:47 Government Debt Crisis and Private Sector Recession 11:03 Gold's Performance and Market Environment 13:13 Factors Affecting Gold's Valuation 19:36 Fed Policy and Fiscal Dominance 23:39 Impact of Fiscal Dominance on Gold 27:26 Investing in Gold Mining Companies 31:53 Impact of Bubbles Bursting 35:36 Potential Impacts of Recession 40:10 Likelihood of Recession 44:21 Closing Remarks
3/13/202447 minutes, 1 second
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#151 Whitney Tilson On The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, now Editor at Stansberry Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, markets, and common mistakes investors make.  Whitney discusses the strength of the macro picture and the importance of not betting against America.  In this conversation, Whitney shares stock picks, reflects on missed opportunities, and discusses the importance of letting winners run. He also talks about closing his hedge fund, lessons learned, and the wisdom he gained from the late Charlie Munger.  Tilson emphasizes the need for patience and discipline in investing and highlights the five calamities that can derail a successful life. Links:  Stansberry Research: https://stansberryresearch.com/our-team/whitney-tilson The Art of Playing Defense: https://www.amazon.com/Art-Playing-Defense-Falling-Behind-ebook/dp/B091QFHJ6B Timestamps  00:00 Introduction 00:55 Big picture view of the economy and markets  02:43 Caution against letting politics influence investment decisions 03:38 The mistake of predicting gloom and doom 05:24 Betting against America doesn’t make sense  06:59 There are warning flags, but stocks aren’t in bubble territory  8:10 Bitcoin smells frothy, but ‘I would never short it’  09:22 Stock Picks: Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, and other opportunities 10:02 Bitcoin is an instrument of pure speculation  15:56 Stock pick ideas - Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, etc. 21:26 Introduction to Warren Buffett and value investing 26:48 Stock exchanges as interesting investment opportunities 29:08 Lessons from missed opportunities 36:07 The importance of letting winners run 38:50 Reflecting on closing the hedge fund, mental mistakes investors make 43:48 Running a Hedge Fund with Patience and Discipline 46:13 Charlie Munger's legacy 50:06 The Art of Playing Defense
3/12/202453 minutes, 9 seconds
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#150 Alfonso Peccatiello On The Risk of a Global Recession Triggered by China's Deleveraging And The Spillover Effects Not Many Are Paying Attention To

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations.  He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies.  Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund. Takeaways Investors are adjusting their expectations based on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates fewer times than initially anticipated. The prevailing narrative of a structurally stronger US economy may overlook the tightening of financial conditions and the potential spillover effects from China's deleveraging process. The data is ambiguous, with some parts of the economy showing signs of slowing down while others remain resilient. Portfolio construction should focus on diversification and protecting purchasing power, considering assets that are uncorrelated to one's job and the overall economy. Links:  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/ Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:22 The macro view 03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it’s 1995’ 05:30 Alf’s contrarian narrative 08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns 11:42 Spillover effects from China 15:41 Possible recession and risks 27:14 Conclusion
3/7/202430 minutes, 30 seconds
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#149 Jeff Snider: We're Still On The Same Path To Recession

Jeff Snider, host of the Eurodollar University podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the current macroeconomic picture, characterized by confusion and ambiguity.  In this episode, Jeff explains the Fed's focus on consumer prices and the risks associated with this approach. Jeff also highlights the lurking risks in the commercial real estate market and the Chinese real estate bubble. He provides insights on asset allocation and portfolio construction in this uncertain environment. Jeff is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University (https://www.eurodollar.university/) aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles.  Timestamps:  00:00 Introduction 01:05 Welcome Jeff and the macro view 03:08 Confusion and ambiguity in the economy 07:24 The Fed's focus on consumer prices 08:43 Market pricing and signaling 11:57 What the Fed should be focused on 14:30 Ambiguity in economic data 23:51 Fiscal support and the economy 26:39 Lurking risks: Commercial real estate and China 31:10 Asset allocation and portfolio construction 33:47 Eurodollar University and parting thoughts
3/5/202437 minutes, 20 seconds
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#148 'Convexity Maven' Harley Bassman: The Market Is Ahead Of The Fed By A Lot

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, discusses his macro view of the economy and markets. He believes that the market is ahead of the Fed and that inflation will not come down as quickly as people think due to demographic factors. Bassman also discusses the yield curve and its implications for a recession. He recommends investing in mortgage-backed securities due to their attractive risk-return profile. Finally, Bassman, the "Convexity Maven," explains convexity and its importance in bond investing. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/convexitymaven Convexity Maven: https://www.convexitymaven.com/ Simplify Asset Management: https://www.simplify.us/ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and macro view 03:03 Inflation and Fed Policy 05:01 Inflation expectations 07:26 Yield Curve and recession 10:06 Trade Opportunities in bonds 14:47 Mortgage-Backed Securities and convexity 19:55 Rate expectations and mortgage bond trade 20:15 Understanding convexity 25:55 Wrap up
2/29/202428 minutes, 32 seconds
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#147 Andreas Steno On Why The Resurgence In Inflation Could Mean Another Rate Hike From The Fed

Andreas Steno, founder of Steno Research, discusses the resurgence of inflation and its impact on the global economy, and his contrarian take that the next move from the Federal Reserve could be a rate hike.  In this episode, Steno highlights the labor market as a major driver of inflation, with wage pressures increasing due to labor scarcity. Steno suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates instead of cutting them, but acknowledges the political challenges of such a move.  He also discusses the macro situation in Europe, with Germany and France struggling while southern European economies thrive. Steno is the former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea, Northern Europe's largest bank. This episode was recorded on February 19.  Links:  https://stenoresearch.com/ https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Timestamps  00:00 Introduction 00:49 The macro view: inflation resurgence 02:38 Indicators of inflation resurgence 04:40 Labor market and wage pressures 07:00 Federal Reserve's interest rate policy 09:00 Possibility of a rate hike 10:26 Implications for markets 14:12 Structural changes in the labor market 15:48 Surprising rebound in asset markets 18:50 The European macro situation  21:40 Implications of production shifts in Europe 24:00 Watching Europe from the outside 26:00 Portfolio construction  27:50 The Fed's rate hikes paused too soon 29:15 Parting thoughts 
2/27/202433 minutes, 15 seconds
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#146 Darius Dale: We’re Pivoting To A Reflation Macro Regime — What It Means For Markets 

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 146.  In this episode, Darius discusses the current market regime and the transition to a reflation regime. He explains the drivers of the reflation regime and the implications for portfolio construction. Dale also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve and interest rate policy in the current environment. He highlights the importance of liquidity and its impact on asset markets. Dale concludes by discussing the risks and benefits of the reflation regime and the potential for a market correction. Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm’s economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale. Links:  42 Macro https://42macro.com/ Darius on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/dariusdale42 42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro 42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro 0:00 Introduction and macro view 1:20 Reflation regime and drivers 6:29 Understanding the Global Macro Risk Matrix 11:50 FOMC and interest rate policy 15:49 Liquidity cycle and implications 21:46 Benefits and drawbacks of the reflation regime 22:05 Risks and existing economic conditions 28:45 Risk of market correction 31:43 Parting thoughts, more on 42 Macro
2/22/202435 minutes, 16 seconds
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#145 David Woo, Analyst Who Nailed The 2016 And 2020 Elections, Sees Huge Headwind For The Economy Ahead Of The 2024 Vote

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 145 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics. In this episode, Woo shares his macro framework, emphasizing the intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics and the need to understand their impact on market outcomes. Woo also explores the potential risks and challenges facing the US economy, including political instability and polarization.  Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy, & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 and the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested. With the increased political polarization in the U.S., Woo sees a real pressure point once we enter the third quarter. “Once we get into July, we're four months away from the election, I think it's going to feel like shit. I think America, Americans are going to be petrified about what is going to be in store for the country in the final four months leading up to the election,” Woo said, adding that when safeguards to the system get “seriously stress tested” it will be “a huge economic headwind” to households and companies.  Elsewhere, he shares contrarian investment views and highlights the importance of facts and numbers in public discourse. Finally, Woo discusses his work with David Woo Unbound and the mission to bring diverse perspectives together for meaningful discussions. Links:  Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound 0:00 Intro 1:18 Macro view and why it’s harder to make money  3:05 Intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics  4:52 Biden has to get the economy right, needs a soft landing  6:50 Game Theory with oil prices  9:00 Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy  13:00 Government spending contributed 1/3 of GDP growth last year 17:30 Economic risk in the U.S.  18:40 Political risk 22:00 Political division ahead of election day  26:26 Contrarian views and ideas today  34:44 Perception of the U.S. from the outside  42:20 Parting thoughts 
2/20/202447 minutes, 36 seconds
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#144 David Rosenberg: Recessionary Forces Are Building And The Economy Is Weaker Than The Narrative Suggests

Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, shares his macroeconomic view of the economy and explains why he’s not throwing in the towel on his recession call. Rosenberg highlights the importance of understanding the business cycle and the impact of interest rates. While many economists have thrown in the towel on their recession calls, Rosenberg remains in the recession camp, pointing out that the economy is weaker than the narrative suggests. He also emphasizes looking at the full picture, noting the divergences in various economic indicators.  Elsewhere, Rosenberg provides insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy and its implications for bond and equity markets. Rosenberg is bullish on bonds and explains how you could make a 20% total return in the 30-year Treasury. SPECIAL OFFER: Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show can access a free 30-day trial of Rosenberg Research with no upfront commitment. The free trial grants access to Rosenberg Research’s premium service, where you’ll receive complimentary macro and market insights every day. Request a trial at this link: https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trial Timestamps 00:00 Introduction, welcome, macro picture 0:54 Economists throwing in the recession towel 2:55 State of the consumer 4:15 Fiscal stimulus 6:40 Bullish on bonds, sees equity-like returns  7:30 Recession call  10:30 Bifurcation and divergencies in the markets and economy  12:00 GDP and GDI  14:00 Growth in credit card usage, epic drawdown in personal savings 15:00 Employment  22:30 Fiscal policy likely to be a drag 24:30 Household balance sheets - auto loans and credit card delinquencies  26:30 GDP likely close to flat this year 28:30 Outlook for Federal Reserve rate policy, need to go to 2.5% 35:45 Yield curve, why you could make more than 20% total return in 30-year Treasury bond 38:20 Implications equity markets if Fed cuts rates 44:30 Stock market has become a bidding war 48:27 Equity risk premium  53:33 Bob Farrell's influence 57:44 Parting thoughts
2/15/20241 hour, 1 minute, 43 seconds
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#143: Danielle DiMartino Booth On The Jobs Market, The Economy, And Why The Recession Already Started

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 143.  In this episode, Danielle provides an update on the economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the job market and the increase in layoffs. She discusses the impact of the white collar recession and the decline in net worth for high-income individuals. DiMartino Booth also shares her insights on the market performance and the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates. She suggests a question for Fed Chair Powell regarding the regulatory changes and their impact on the financial system. Additionally, DiMartino Booth emphasizes the importance of backlogs as an indicator and discusses the current state of the economy in an election year. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.   DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links:  QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Takeaways The job market is facing challenges, with layoffs increasing and the demand for labor collapsing. The current recession can be characterized as a white collar recession, with high-income individuals experiencing a decline in net worth. The market performance is driven by the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but the timing and extent of these cuts are uncertain. Backlogs serve as an important indicator of the economy, reflecting pent-up demand and potential future trends. The upcoming election is crucial, and voters should be aware of the government's spending and the importance of their vote. Timestamps  00:00 Introduction and update on the economy 03:08 Job market and layoffs 08:25 White collar recession 10:03 Market performance  15:06 Outlook for interest rates 17:19 Question for Fed Chair Powell 18:41 The importance of backlogs as an indicator 20:05 Recession 21:34 Journalism background and Warren Buffett 24:00 Parting thoughts
2/13/202426 minutes, 28 seconds
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#142 Dr. Burton Malkiel On 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street,' The Best Way To Invest, And What You're Getting Wrong About 'Efficient Markets'

Dr. Burton Malkiel, author of the influential book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," which revolutionized how people approach investing, joined Julia La Roche on episode 142. Link: https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/1324051132 0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Burton Malkiel  1:30 Writing ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’  4:30 Reaction to ‘A Random Walk’  5:30 90% of active managers do worse than the index  8:14 Investing in the first index fund, and its returns  12:48 This is the way to invest 19:30 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) 22:29 Bitcoin spot ETF, bubbles  27:18 Debunking that ETFs distort financial markets, fuel a passive investing bubble  33:40 Efficient Market Hypothesis and what the media gets wrong 38:20 View of the markets, macroeconomics   43:50 Retirement crisis ahead? 48:48 Background 50:38 Parting thoughts
2/8/202457 minutes, 9 seconds
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#141 Marc Faber On Interest Rates, Inflation, And 'QE Infinity'

Dr. Marc Faber, editor of “The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report," provides a macro view of the global economy and financial markets. He discusses the diverging trends in different countries and the impact on standards of living.  Dr. Faber expresses concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the high levels of debt in the US. He recommends investing in gold as a safe asset and highlights the undervalued opportunities in Latin America.  Dr. Faber emphasizes the importance of being a contrarian investor and encourages individuals to focus on personal freedom and not rely on government interventions. In uncertain times, Faber advises diversification as a strategy, allocating assets to stocks, precious metals, real estate, and cash and bonds. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a consistent asset allocation regardless of market conditions. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and welcome Dr. Marc Faber 01:13 Macro view  04:00 Cost of living in advanced economies is higher  06:00 EM valuations attractive, US expensive  08:46 Long-term cycles of inflation and interest rates 10:00 Inflation is not under control 11:28 The rich have never had it this good in their lives 12:27 A silent depression for ordinary people  14:45 Long-term cycles of inflation, interest rates in context of growing debt 20:00 Printing money 23:20 Re-acceleration of inflation  26:00 The Economics of Inflation  28:01 ‘If you trust the central banks, you’re stupid’ 35:08 Gold and precious metals  48:17 Recession outlook 50:39 Investment opportunities, asset allocation  54:50 Parting thoughts 
2/6/20241 hour, 2 minutes, 47 seconds
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#140 DoubleLine Capital's Jeff Sherman On Fed Policy, The Economy, And Why Rate Cuts Likely Won't Happen Until June Or Later

Jeff Sherman, Deputy CIO of DoubleLine Capital, joins The Julia La Roche Show for episode 140 to break down the first FOMC meeting of 2024 and his outlook for the economy and the markets, inflation, and more. Takeaways The FOMC meeting indicated that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon, but the timing and extent of the cuts are uncertain. Positive real yields in the bond market offer attractive investment opportunities, especially compared to the volatility of the equity market. The current economic outlook is relatively positive, but there are risks to consider, such as potential inflation and the impact of interest rate policy. Investors should be cautious and evaluate the risks associated with their investments, considering factors such as inflation, market volatility, and the potential for economic downturns. Timestamps:  00:00 Introduction and welcome 01:00 FOMC meeting reaction 05:27 QT   11:20 Positive real yield investment opportunities  14:50 Stocks vs. bonds  20:00 Economic outlook  30:00 Value threshold is higher  32:30 Inflation 39:00 Risks Links:  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap and https://twitter.com/ShermanShowPod DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com/ Podcast: doubleline.com/podcasts/
2/1/202443 minutes, 11 seconds
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#139 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini On The 10 Megathreats That Could Destroy Our Economy

Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging discussion on economics. Roubini, known as "Dr. Doom" due to his tendency to make pessimistic predictions, shared his near-term macro outlook for 2024, pointing out that a hard or no landing scenario looks unlikely, and a soft or soft-ish landing is the most likely probability.  Elsewhere, Roubini gave an update on the medium-to-longer-term outlook, which includes ten interconnected megathreats that collectively are a slow-moving trainwreck. Roubini is the Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, and Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com. He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com. Links: Megathreats book: https://www.amazon.com/MegaThreats-Dangerous-Trends-Imperil-Survive/dp/031628405X Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/nouriel Website: https://nourielroubini.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome 1:00 Macro view — soft landing, no landing, or hard landing scenario 3:54 No landing and hard landing scenario don’t look as likely today 6:00 The downside scenario  9:03 Why we avoided a recession in 2023 12:49 Update on Megathreats, worrisome risks in the longer-term, stagflation 20:00 Impact of AI, positive deflation  23:00 Deaths of despair  28:38 Debt situation, the mother of all debt crises  31:00 Inflation in the medium-term, 5 or 6% 34:00 Fiscal dominance 36:00 Addressing the debt situation in the U.S.  41:00 Inflation rate likely 6% rather than 2%, impact on 10-year treasury, mortgage rates 46:00 Take on the markets. Are they pricing in a soft landing?  49:30 Bitcoin, Bitcoin Spot ETF, and crypto 55:25 World Economic Forum in Davos, the conventional wisdom of WEF is always wrong
1/30/202459 minutes, 56 seconds
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#138 Peter Mallouk, CEO of $245B Creative Planning: 'It’s Hard To Be Anything But Optimistic Over The Long Run'

Peter Mallouk, CEO and President of Creative Planning, a $245 billion RIA, shares his macroeconomic view, emphasizing long-term optimism due to low unemployment, emerging markets, and technological innovation. He advises investors to focus on the long run and not be swayed by short-term risks.  Mallouk discusses the potential for rate cuts, the US debt situation, and his skepticism towards cryptocurrencies and gold as investments. He recommends a diversified portfolio focusing on equity-oriented investments, including stocks and private equity. Mallouk also highlights the importance of avoiding common investor mistakes and maintaining a long-term perspective. Takeaways Maintain a long-term perspective and focus on the macroeconomic factors that drive long-term growth, such as low unemployment, emerging markets, and technological innovation. Do not try to time the market or make investment decisions based on short-term events. Instead, focus on asset allocation and diversification to protect your portfolio. Be cautious about investing in cryptocurrencies, as the majority of them are likely to go to zero. Treat them as speculative bets rather than long-term investments. Gold is not recommended as an investment for wealth growth, as it has historically underperformed other asset classes. However, it can serve as a store of value in uncertain times. Avoid common investor mistakes, such as market timing and overactive security selection. Instead, focus on long-term asset allocation and controlling costs and taxes. Links: Money, Simplified book: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Simplified-Peter-Mallouk/dp/B0CLZ1W9RD Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/PeterMallouk Creative Planning: https://creativeplanning.com/ Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:46 Macroeconomic view 03:14 Navigating short-term risks 04:42 Market outlook for 2024 06:15 Investing in stocks, small caps 07:38 International markets 08:28 Federal Reserve and interest rates 10:30 US debt situation is the No. 1 risk  14:00 Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies 15:23 Role of gold in a portfolio, Mallouk not a fan of gold 17:06 Preferred investments 18:54 Common investor mistakes 20:21 Investor psychology 23:07 Peter Mallouk's journey 24:46 Where to find Peter Mallouk 25:17 Long run optimism
1/25/202426 minutes, 27 seconds
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#137 Professor Campbell Harvey, The Inventor Of The Most Famous Recession Indicator — The Inverted Yield Curve — Sees Economic Slowdown In 2024

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — joins The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy, the Federal Reserve, and the yield curve.  In this episode, Professor Harvey highlights how the Federal Reserve made things worse in 2023 with its unnecessary rate hikes. According to Professor Harvey, we’re fortunate if the economy delivers slow growth this year in spite of the Fed’s damaging actions. He argues that the Fed will need to undo the damage they did with immediate rate cuts no smaller than 50 basis points at the next meeting.  Elsewhere, Professor Harvey shares the origin story of the inverted yield curve indicator and it’s 8 for 8 track record in predicting economic recessions. Now that we’re in the 9th inversion, he shares that it’s way too early to call if we’re in a false signal. He also makes a case that the inverted yield curve is causing slower economic growth, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing because you avoid a deep recession.  Links:  DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey 0:00 Intro  1:00 Big picture macro view  1:30 Understanding the current state of the economy and the role of the consumer 5:20 Fed needs to  5:55 The story has to do with the consumer 8:30 Federal Reserve undoing the damage 10:00 Inflation, the false narrative, and policy errors 18:00 Fed rate cuts need to happen immediately  21:27 What would Professor Harvey do differently at the Fed?  23:30 Inverted yield curve indicator origin story 30:00 Difference between long-term rate and short-term rate is highly predictive of economic growth  36:40 8 out of 8 without a false signal  39:00 If Fed undoes the damage it created, there’s a good shot of a soft landing 39:30 What do folks get wrong when it comes to the inverted yield curve?  45:00 The inverted yield curve is causing slower economic growth  47:00 Understanding how the inverted yield curve works  49:30 What keeps Professor Harvey up at night? 
1/23/202453 minutes, 44 seconds
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#136 Professor Jeremy Siegel Shares Outlook For The Economy, Fed Rate Cuts, And The Stock Market

Famed economist Professor Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance emeritus at Wharton, discusses the macroeconomic overview, his outlook for the Fed’s interest rate policy, the probability of a recession, the stock market outlook, and owning stocks for the long run.  Timestamps  00:00 Introduction  01:12 Macro overview 04:50 Probability of a soft landing is over 50% 06:09 3 reasons to lower interest rates 10:24 Commercial Real Estate and banks 13:07 Expectations for the Fed, how fast will the lower? 17:45 Misconceptions about rate cuts 20:27 Most important message from the latest FOMC 22:22 Goldilocks economy, 60-40 soft landing odds  25:20 Stock market 27:27 Productivity  29:10 Market outlook for 2024 32:00 Value stocks 34:37 Bond market outlook 34:30 The Noisy Market Hypothesis  37:48 10,000 students in 49 years as a professor 39:25 Never taken a finance class  42:42 Milton Friedman 44:10 Parting thoughts Links:  https://ir.wisdomtree.com/company-information/advisor https://fnce.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/siegel/ https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/1264269803/
1/18/202446 minutes, 35 seconds
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#135 Chris Whalen On Pain In Commercial Real Estate, More Bank Failures, And A Maxi Reset In Home Prices In The Future

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets, including an impending maxi reset in home prices and the potential for more bank failures.  He also highlights the “silent crisis” in commercial real estate and the potential increase in bank failures. Whalen shares his insights on the earnings of big banks and media coverage. He provides an outlook on the Federal Reserve and discusses the debt situation in the US. Lastly, he addresses the possibility of releasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship and shares his work and parting thoughts. Takeaways The commercial side of the economy is experiencing pain, particularly in commercial real estate and corporate defaults. The housing market is expected to undergo a reset in the future, leading to a decrease in home prices and potential challenges for developers. There is a silent crisis in commercial real estate, with legacy properties becoming toxic and banks being urged to sell assets. The Federal Reserve may need to drop rates, start buying bonds, and increase reserves to address the challenges in the economy and banking sector. The US debt situation is a significant concern, and long-term rates may rise, impacting various sectors of the economy. The release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship is unlikely due to their credit ratings and challenges in functioning as private entities. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Comments most recent Fed proposal in Basel III Endgame: https://www.regulations.gov/comment/OCC-2023-0008-0052 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:08 Big picture view of the economy and markets 3:29 Impact of Basel III endgame  4:50 A maxi reset in housing 06:20 Silent Crisis in commercial real estate 09:28 Potential increase in bank failures 13:00 Big bank earnings and media coverage 15:30 Grim economic picture for commercial  21:15 Outlook on the Federal Reserve 24:55 Fed could cause a bank crisis  26:15 Debt situation in the US 31:30 Release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from Conservatorship?  35:15 Parting Thoughts
1/16/202436 minutes, 59 seconds
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#134 Luke Gromen: A Hard Landing Isn't Going To Come In Stocks. It Will Come In Treasuries

Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the macro picture and the sovereign debt bubble that’s bursting in the U.S. In this episode, Gromen makes a case that he thinks this is the year where the consensus realizes the Federal Reserve as a “shadow third mandate,” which is the Treasury market functioning. He explains the concept of fiscal dominance and its implications for the economy, including higher inflation and a weaker dollar.  Gromen predicts that there will not be a recession in 2024 due to the Fed's focus on maintaining the functioning of the treasury market. He recommends investing in gold, Bitcoin, and industrials as these assets are likely to perform well in the current environment.  Gromen also discusses potential scenarios that could avoid the negative outcomes of the sovereign debt bubble. Links:  https://fftt-llc.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen Dr. Charles Calomiris’ paper on fiscal dominance: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2023/10/02/fiscal-dominance-and-the-return-of-zero-interest-bank-reserve-requirements.pdf Timestamps:  0:00 Introduction and macro view 1:40 The Fed has a “shadow third mandate” 3:54 Fiscal dominance and its symptoms  9:24 Realization of fiscal dominance by the consensus  14:10 No recession in 2024 21:31 It’s a new Great Depression 26:00 Investment Opportunities: gold, Bitcoin, and industrials 35:19 Avoiding the scenario 40:05 Conclusion and parting thoughts
1/11/202442 minutes, 25 seconds
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#133 Jim Bianco On Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 5.5%, Implications For Stock Market, And Concerns About The Bitcoin Spot ETF

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche to share his macroeconomic outlook, his prediction for 5.5% on the 10-year Treasury yield impact on the stock market, inflation, the US debt situation, and the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF.  Links:  BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com twitter.com/BiancoResearch  Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and macro outlook  03:07 Call for 5.5% 10-year Treasury and impact on the stock market 6:12 The pathway to 5.5% 8:08 The Fed's response to inflation 11:26 Soft Landing vs. No Landing 15:40 Implications of 5.5% on the 10-year 21:40 Why can’t we get to 2%?  28:38 Biggest worry with 5.5% on the 10-year 31:16 US debt crosses $34T 36:35 Bitcoin Spot ETF  44:40 Closing remarks  46:50 Consensus forecasts have been wrong
1/9/202449 minutes, 4 seconds
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#132 Morgan Housel: Save Like A Pessimist And Invest Like An Optimist

Bestselling author Morgan Housel, partner at The Collaborative Fund and first-ever guest on The Julia La Roche Show returns for episode 132 to discuss his newest New York Times Bestseller Same As Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes. Morgan’s first book The Psychology of Money has sold over four million copies and been translated into 50 languages worldwide. Morgan is a two-time winner of the Best in Business Award from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, and winner of the New York Times Sidney Award. In 2022, MarketWatch named him one of the 50 most influential people in markets. He serves on the board of directors at Markel.  Takeaways Managing expectations is crucial for happiness and success. Social media can lead to inflated expectations and feelings of inadequacy. Envy and the pursuit of status and success can hinder happiness. Unforeseen consequences and tail risks play a significant role in shaping our lives. Personal experiences can shape our perception of risk and influence our decision-making. Economic forecasts are in high demand because they reduce uncertainty, even if their track record is poor. Calm periods in the economy or markets can lead to instability and eventual crises. Simplicity and endurance are key to successful long-term investing. Charlie Munger's legacy lies in his wisdom and willingness to share it with others. Writing is a process of self-discovery and learning. Timestamps  00:00 Introduction and Catching Up 01:08 Surprising Success of 'The Psychology of Money' 02:24 The Value of Low Expectations 04:08 Managing Expectations and Balancing Optimism 07:28 The Dangers of High Expectations and Social Media 09:37 The Gap Between Expectations and Reality 12:59 The Inflation of Expectations 15:11 The Impact of Social Media on Happiness 18:30 Envy and the Pursuit of Status and Success 23:39 Risk and the Unforeseen Consequences 26:17 The World Hanging by a Thread 31:41 Personal Story: Skiing Accident and Risk Aversion 40:32 The Demand for Economic Forecasts 43:01 Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy 46:00 Investment Strategy: Simplicity and Endurance 48:23 Charlie Munger's Legacy 51:08 Writing for Self-Discovery
1/4/202454 minutes, 34 seconds
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#131 Sallie Krawcheck: Nothing Bad Happens When Women Have More Money

In this conversation, Julia interviews Sallie Krawcheck, the CEO and founder of Ellevest, about the economy, the role of women in finance, and the retirement crisis. Sallie shares her assessment of the economy and markets, emphasizing the importance of long-term investing and the historical growth of the stock market. She also discusses the significant impact women had on the economy in the past year and the growth of Ellevest as a platform for women's wealth-building. Sallie reflects on her initial skepticism about starting a women-focused investing firm and the importance of overcoming imposter syndrome with a growth mindset. The conversation concludes with a shared love for their alma mater, UNC, and a reminder to support and promote women in finance. Takeaways Long-term investing in the stock market has historically delivered strong returns, making it a scalable way to build wealth. Women played a significant role in the economy in the past year, defying stereotypes and embracing their spending power. The retirement crisis disproportionately affects women, who have less wealth and live longer than men. Women tend to be better investors than men, as they are less likely to panic and trade frequently. Men have a crucial role to play in advancing gender equality and supporting women's financial empowerment. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Gratitude 00:46 Assessment of the Economy and Markets 03:12 The Role of Women in the Economy 04:48 Update on Ellevest 07:33 Sallie's Initial Skepticism and Change of Perspective 10:26 The Retirement Crisis and its Impact on Women 12:48Women's Investment Behavior and Performance 16:02 Regional Banking Crisis and Risks 20:01 Incentive Structures for Bank Executives 20:48 The Role of Men in Advancing Gender Equality 23:57 Overcoming Imposter Syndrome with a Growth Mindset 25:33 Shared Love for UNC and Closing Remarks
12/28/202328 minutes, 27 seconds
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#130 Dr. Charles Calomiris On Fiscal Dominance And The Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements

Dr. Charles Calomiris, Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions Emeritus at Columbia Business School, joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss his recent paper, ⁠Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements⁠. In this episode, Dr. Calomiris examines the state of the economy in the near-term and longer-term, as well as the fiscal challenges facing the U.S. According to Dr. Calomiris, there's a significant probability of a fiscal dominance problem arriving in the next decade. Fiscal dominance is the need for the government to fund its deficits on the margin with non-interest-bearing debts, also known as "inflation taxation." He points out the need for political leadership and accountability in addressing the unsustainable promises of entitlement spending. Dr. Calomiris explains what could trigger panic in the bond market and the potential solutions, including taxing the banking system. He also discusses the implications of such policies on the banking system and the broader economy. Overall, he emphasizes the importance of addressing the long-term fiscal challenges to avoid a crisis in the future. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and background 01:01 Short-run and long-run perspective of the economy 03:23 The dysfunctional state of the economy, the blame is ours 06:37 Generational government accounting and political responsibility 10:06 We are not a grown-up society right now  11:20 Debt situation in the U.S.  13:53 The point of no return?  17:50 Less than a decade to make the political decision 19:50 Deficits, recessionary environment, and the consequences 23:00 Signs to look out for in the bond market  24:40 Fiscal Dominance and its definition 27:30 Will the government tax the banking system into almost oblivion?  28:50 Taxing the banking system and the inflation tax 34:00 If nothing changes, how implied annual inflation could be 35-40% 37:00 Fed could raise reserve requirements and pay zero interest to expand the inflation tax base, lower implied inflation rate 40:00 Impact on the banking system 46:17 The power of the Federal Reserve 51:00 Bitcoin 54:19 Parting Thoughts and Advice Links: Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements Fragile By Design The Political Origins of Banking Crisis and Scarce Credit
12/26/202358 minutes, 58 seconds
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#129 Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Analyst Who Nailed The 2023 Stock Market Rally, Shares His 2024 Market Outlook

Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat and FS Insight, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to share his market outlook. Lee was among the bullish entering 2023, with a prescient call that the S&P 500 would rise 20% to 4,750 as inflation cooled off.  In this episode, Lee shared his 2024 market outlook, noting it’s a year that investors shouldn’t be afraid. He expects the S&P 500 will end 2024 at 5,200, but with a caveat that most of the gains will be in the second half of the year. He pointed out that his base case is the S&P could be flat or down 5% during the first half. Looking ahead to 2024, Lee predicts positive changes in monetary policy and an earnings recovery cycle, with small caps and financials as top picks. He anticipates that small-cap stocks could outperform and rally as much as 50%. He also shares his bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Takeaways The successful call for 2023 was based on the belief that inflation would be transitory and volatility would collapse. Investors got it wrong by focusing on a singular analogy and underestimating the importance of volatility. For 2024, Lee predicts positive changes in monetary policy and an earnings recovery cycle, with small caps and financials as top picks. Bitcoin is expected to have a strong year in 2024 due to dovish central banks and the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. Links: https://fsinsight.com/ https://fundstrat.com/ Timestamps  0:00 Intro and welcome Tom Lee 1:13 Retrospective on 2023 market call, what people got wrong 5:13 Mass psychology playing a bigger role than ever 6:58 Institutional and retail investors reading from the same playbook 8:42 2024 outlook, a year investors shouldn’t really be afraid  14:12 Base case is S&P down/flat in first half, most gains in the second half 18:26 Small caps  21:10 S&P 5200 22:00 Sector positioning 24:20 ‘Permabull’ reference is a cheap shot    30:00 Bitcoin 32:00 Closing remarks 
12/21/202334 minutes, 32 seconds
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#128: Felix Zulauf: 'Hell Will Break Loose' — The Next Big Crisis In Late 2020s Will Be A Shocker

Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, who is the founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, joined The Julia La Roche Show to share his insights on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and the market. Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. In this episode, Zulauf predicted that the market will continue to rise in early 2024 due to the economy appearing stronger than expected. However, he anticipates a drop in equities due to a recession. He described the current market as a "rollercoaster," with ups and downs that could be particularly frustrating for passive investors. He suggested that these investors might see low or even negative total returns in the next decade. According to Zulauf, those who can play mini cycles could find the environment beneficial. Zulauf also commented on the concentration of fund managers in the Magnificent 7, a level of concentration he has never seen in his 40-year career. Turning to inflation, Zulauf argued that what we're currently seeing is only a "temporary victory" and that we have "not killed the inflation beast." He shared his thesis for the latter part of the 2020s, predicting a possible 10% inflation rate. He noted that while occasional crises have been managed and kept under control, he worries that the next big crisis in the late 2020s "will be a shocker." As he put it, "all hell will break loose," and the latter half of the decade will be characterized by social, economic, financial, and currency crises. 0:00 Intro and Welcome Felix Zulauf  1:12 Macro view, geopolitical impact, changing world order 2:40 Equity markets likely to go up first, then drop 3:50 Inflation could rise above 10%  5:20 Nimble and flexible  7:29 Playing the markets in the environment  9:40 Fund managers piling into Magnificent 7 stocks, never seen this kind of concentration  14:24 FOMC reaction, Fed outlook, rate cut likely  17:40 Late 2020s, higher inflation, debt trillion 19:38 Inflation cycle similar to late 60s/70s 21:15 Next inflation cycle will create a problem for the bond market 22:15 Yield curve control  23:30 Hell will break loose, next big crisis will be a shocker  24:30 Addressing the fiscal problems  25:37 Gold not just a monetary asset, but a geopolitical asset 30:40 Parting thoughts, Japanese Yen 
12/19/202334 minutes, 27 seconds
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#127 Grant Williams: Get Rid Of Certainty — Be Prepared For A Recession And A Soft Landing 

Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.  The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market. The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan's monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money.  Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored.  Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI.  Grant also shares the worst experience in his career. Links: https://www.grant-williams.com/ https://twitter.com/ttmygh Timestamps:  0:00 Welcome Grant Williams 1:30 Macro view 3:00 Two opposing ideas at once  5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong  8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen 9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook  10:29 Bank of Japan moves  13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies  17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S. 18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan  21:00 1987 crash  23:50 People want to help  26:15 World views we form generationally  29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing  32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations  34:46 The Fourth Turning  39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk  42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point. 43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense  44:11 Gold  51:02 CPI  57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career 
12/14/20231 hour, 25 seconds
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#126 Liz Ann Sonders On The 2024 Market Outlook, A Different Investing Environment, And Why You Can’t Rule Out A Recession

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab, discusses the macro picture, behavior of asset classes, active management, Federal Reserve outlook, interpreting economic data, the yield curve and recession, the bond market vs. equity market, and lessons from the legendary late Marty Zweig. Takeaways * The current economic cycle is characterized by rolling recessions, with different sectors experiencing periods of growth and contraction. * The relationship between bond yields and stock prices has historically been negative during inflationary periods and positive during periods of economic growth. * Active management may become more important in the new era, as market conditions change and there is greater dispersion in how securities behave. * The Federal Reserve is likely to be in pause mode with regards to rate hikes, but a significant loosening of monetary policy is not expected. *Interpreting economic data can be challenging due to the presence of crosscurrents and conflicting indicators. * The yield curve has historically been a reliable predictor of recessions, but the timing and duration of recessions can vary.* The bond market and equity market may have different perspectives on the current economic environment, with the bond market being more cautious. * Lessons from Marty Zweig include the importance of understanding how monetary policy influences asset prices and the value of sentiment analysis. Links: 2024 Outlook: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/us-outlook-one-thing-leads-to-another Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders On Investing Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-investing/id1711806955?ls=1&mt=2 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Macro Picture 03:55 A Different Environment 05:29 Behavior of Asset Classes, Opportunities 08:52 Active Management in the New Era 10:25 Federal Reserve Outlook 14:07 Interpreting Economic Data 19:03 Yield Curve and Recession 22:27 Bond Market vs. Equity Market 25:21 Lessons from Marty Zweig
12/12/202330 minutes, 5 seconds
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#125 Jason Calacanis On American Society And Getting Past The Victim Mentality, Friendship With Elon Musk And Owning The First Tesla Model S, The All-In Podcast And Leaving Millions On The Table

Angel investor and entrepreneur Jason Calacanis, “The World’s Greatest Moderator” and co-host/Bestie of All-In Podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 125 for a wide-ranging discussion. Calacanis, affectionately known as “J-Cal,” is one of the best angel investors in the world, having turned $100,000 into $100,000,000, with early investments in Uber, Calm, Robinhood, Wealthfront, and more. He co-hosts the popular All-In Podcast alongside Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg. The conversation covers various topics, including the despicable display on Capitol Hill, the meaning of being an American, the impact of abundance on society. They also get into the breakout success of the All-In Podcast, interviewing presidential candidates, and how the show is leaving millions on the table by not having advertising.  In the conversation, Julia learns how Jason came to own the first Tesla Model S and 16th Roadster. They also got into some of the media scrutiny of Musk. In this conversation, Julia and Jason discuss the rise of independent creators and the shift away from traditional media networks. They explore the advantages of being an independent content creator and the potential for greater financial success.  Elsewhere, Jason shares his journey to success, highlighting the importance of hard work, seizing opportunities, and understanding every aspect of one's field. They also discuss finding purpose and joy in life, the power of partnerships, and the future of the All-In Summit.  Links:  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Jason The All-In Podcast: https://www.allinpodcast.co/ This Week In Startups: https://thisweekinstartups.com/ Newsletter: https://calacanis.substack.com/ Launch: https://www.launch.co/ Angel University: https://www.angel.university/online More links: https://linktr.ee/calacanis/ 0:00 Welcome Jason Calacanis  2:14 Antisemitism on college campuses, Harvard, MIT, and UPenn on Capitol Hill 6:20 Identity politics madness is coming to an end  850 Why has America drifted?  10:50 Democracy + capitalism  13:20 Get rid of the victim mentality  15:55 Hard work pays off, keep adding skills  20:14 Success of the All-In Podcast  23:00 Presidential candidates on the All-In Podcast  26:30 All-In Summit  28:40 All-In leaving $25 million on the table  29:35 Elon Musk and how Jason got the first Tesla Model S 35:14 Media scrutiny of Musk 40:50 Podcasting and rise of independent creators  43:50 Power of going the independent route  54:40 Jason’s background and journey to success 54:00 Finding purpose and joy 56:20 Besties and the power of partnerships 
12/7/20231 hour, 2 minutes, 58 seconds
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#124 Michael Howell: Rising Liquidity, Monetary Inflation, And Why Gold Could Surge To $3,000

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 124 to share where we are in the global liquidity cycle and why gold is ready for a breakout moment. Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Intro and welcome Michael Howell to the show 1:00 Macro picture today  2:15 2024 outlook, why liquidity is increasing  6:30 Global Liquidity Index  8:53 Gold, global liquidity, and U.S. CPI  16:00 Gold is not the inflation hedge you think  17:30 Gold holdings of BRICS & friends  21:18 Gold is a monetary inflation hedge  25:00 Breakout moment for Bitcoin like gold?  27:00 Asset allocation  30:30 Past crises were refinancing crises  34:50 Will there be a recession?  37:00 Portfolio construction, parting thoughts 
12/5/202340 minutes, 51 seconds
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#123 Cullen Roche On Inflation, Why The Fed Won't Cut Rates Soon, And Is The S&P 500 Broken?

Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 123.  Going into 2023, Cullen’s big call was disinflation, which was a largely correct call. In this episode, Cullen shares his views that it might take a full year for the Federal Reserve to hit the 2% target. Because of that, the Fed can’t start signaling rate cuts without risking a resurgence in inflation. Therefore, Cullen believes the Fed will remain tighter well into 2024, increasing the risk of a hard landing or credit event as we get deeper into 2024. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cullenroche Discipline Funds: https://disciplinefunds.com/ Is The S&P 500 Broken? https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/11/21/is-the-sp-500-broken/ Pragmatic Capitalism: https://www.amazon.com/Pragmatic-Capitalism-Every-Investor-Finance-ebook/dp/B0B4V1KHVD 0:00 Welcome Cullen Roche to the show  1:03 Macro view  5:44 Real estate  10:13 How resilient is the economy really?  13:33 Disinflation call, 2024 outlook, road to 2% more difficult  17:29 Expect Fed to hold rates tight 18:23 Opportunities in bonds 20:28 Stock market is a 17-year instrument, duration of other asset classes  26:50 Allocating in this environment  30:00 Is the S&P 500 broken, are there hidden risks?  Marlinski Media produces the Julia La Roche Show: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/
12/1/202335 minutes, 45 seconds
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#122 Charles Payne On The Bifurcated Economy, Being An Unbreakable Investor, And The Roaring 2020s

Charles Payne, host of FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Making Money with Charles Payne (weekdays 2-3PM/ET), joined Julia La Roche on episode 122 to discuss his newest book, "Unbreakable Investor." Charles began his career on Wall Street as an analyst at E.F. Hutton in 1985. In 1991, he founded Wall Street Strategies, an independent stock market research firm where he serves as chief executive officer and principal analyst. He published his first book, "Be Smart, Act Fast, Get Rich" in May 2007, and "Unstoppable Prosperity: Learn the Strategy I’ve Used for Years to Beat the Market" in 2019. He joined FOX News Media as a contributor in 2007 and provides financial analysis across FBN and FOX News Channel. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cvpayne Wall Street Strategies: https://www.wstreet.com/ Unbreakable Investor: https://www.unbreakableinvestor.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome Charles Payne 1:24 Big picture view, bifurcated economy and markets  2:51 Recession  4:15 Unbreakable Investor  6:34 Stock market  10:13 Roaring 2020s  12:28 Leadership  15:30 Outlook on the U.S.  19:30 Charles’ journey to Wall Street  25:50 Closing thoughts  The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/
11/28/202326 minutes, 46 seconds
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#121 Raoul Pal: Get Ready For ‘Macro Summer’ — Falling Rates, Falling Inflation, And Growth Picking Up

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 121 to share his macro outlook, views on cryptocurrency and AI, and his Exponential Age thesis.  In this episode, Pal makes a case that we’re currently in the bottom of the business cycle and could be headed for what he’s coined as “macro summer” next year. According to Pal, a macro summer is the “holy grail for macro investing,” characterized by falling rates, falling inflation and growth picking up. Pal noted that tech stocks and crypto priced in a recession last year, and they’re forward-looking, indicating a more positive outlook for the economy, while the Russell 2000 and oil are more reflective of the present day and a slow economy.  Pal, a Goldman Sachs alum, previously co-managed GLG's global macro fund, one of the world's largest. Since retiring back in 2004 at age 36, he now authors a research letter, The Global Macro Investor (GMI), which is read by some of the most influential hedge funds and asset managers. He's also the founder of Real Vision, an online subscription media company specializing in long-form investor interviews. Links:  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi GMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/ https://www.realvision.com/ 0:00 Welcome Raoul Pal  1:23 Macro view today 4:37 We’re at the bottom of the business cycle now 6:02 In “macro spring” headed for “macro summer”  7:50 Why rates will go lower faster than people think 8:27 Paying interest on the debt 10:15 Did we experience a recession already?  12:29 Inflation  14:15 False narratives in macro  16:12 Central Bank’s currency debasement  19:08 Destruction of the American Dream  21:51 The debt problem  26:30 The Exponential Age and the Everything Code  30:27 The darker view  32:40 Higher for longer  34:45 Portfolio construction in this environment  39:40 Robotics and UBI   43:13 Timeline on crypto and broader adoption  48:12 Psychology of the ups and downs  53:07 Acceleration of AI  54:04 Fourth Turning  55:30 Parting thoughts  The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinksi Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/
11/21/202359 minutes, 13 seconds
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#120 Dr. Gary Shilling On Recession Risk, Inflation, Rate Cuts, And Bonds

Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 120 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy. In this episode, Dr. Shilling predicts an imminent recession, citing key indicators such as the inverted yield curve and actions of the Federal Reserve, which is determined to curb inflation even at the risk of triggering a recession. He expects the Fed to be slower in cutting rates in the event of a recession, emphasizing their focus on ensuring inflation is under control and considering the labor market's slower response to economic changes. Elsewhere, Shilling explores the correlation between Treasury bond yields and inflation, indicating that excess supply leads to lower inflation and, thus, lower interest rates. He believes the peak of interest rates has been reached and expects a rally in Treasuries.  He also shares his investment approach, favoring long treasuries, the US dollar, and short positions in stocks and commodities like copper. He's skeptical about the potential of commercial real estate and sees it as a current bubble. 0:00 Welcome Dr. Gary Shilling to the show 0:53 Macro picture today, recession outlook  3:40 Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target  4:30 Globalization  6:30 Rates and inflation  12:18 Bond market  15:20 Hard landing  18:13 What’s ahead for the Fed?  20:00 Higher for longer? Maybe, but I’m not convinced 21:17 Winners and losers in this environment?  23:44 Oil  26:26 U.S. Dollar outlook  28:09 Agnostic on gold  29:13 Bullish on Treasuries  30:46 Housing  37:37 A contrarian?  40:27 Commercial real estate bubble  42:46 Forecasting as an art  46:00 Beekeeping  51:20 Parting thoughts 
11/16/202352 minutes, 59 seconds
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#119 Michael Kao: The Four Horsemen Of Economic Resilience, And Why We Haven't Seen A Hard Landing (Yet)

Michael Kao (@Urbankaoboy) joins Julia La Roche on episode 119 to discuss his macro outlook, why we haven’t seen a hard landing yet thanks to the “four horsemen of economic resilience,” and why he’s favoring shorter duration assets in this economic environment.  Mike has been in the investment business for 30 years and has experience analyzing and investing in many markets and asset classes, spanning commodities to credit to convertible/capital structure/event arbitrage to distressed debt/equity investing.  Mike began his career in the commodities unit at J. Aron/Goldman Sachs in NYC in the early 90’s and traded over 25 different commodity markets and their derivatives. Mike left Goldman to pursue an MBA in Finance at The Wharton School.  After business school, Mike joined Canyon Partners, a credit-oriented hedge fund in Los Angeles, where he went on to become partner and co-founder of the Canyon Arbitrage Fund, which focused on various strategies including convertible and capital structure arbitrage as well as event-driven/risk arbitrage. After 5 years at Canyon, Mike decided to leave Canyon and begin his own investment firm, Akanthos Capital Management, LLC. At Akanthos, Mike ran an opportunistic, value-driven investment strategy that looked for “fulcrum securities” up and down the capital structure.  Mike stopped actively managing external capital in 2019 and now invests primarily for his family office and enjoys blogging about the markets and economy on Substack at urbankaoboy.substack.com and Twitter @UrbanKaoboy.  Mike holds a BS in Electrical Engineering/Computer Science from UC, Berkeley and an MBA in Finance from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Links:  https://www.urbankaoboy.com/ https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy 0:00 Welcome Michael Kao  0:51 Macro view / The Four Horsemen of economic resilience  7:43 Recessionary outlook in the “vodka-Red bull” economy  11:00 The dollar wrecking ball  15:30 The rest of the world ‘out-doving’ the Fed  19:23 Oil outlook  26:27 Portfolio construction, favoring shorter duration  33:00 Thinking about stocks and bonds 35:00 Exit strategies  41:16 Parting thoughts
11/14/202343 minutes, 30 seconds
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#118 Jim Rogers: A Recession Is Not Here Today, But I Can See It Coming

Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 118 to discuss the economy, markets, and where he’s finding opportunity in a world with higher inflation. 0:00 Welcome Jim Rogers back  1:18 Macro view ahead of an election  3:00 Recession outlook  4:48 Inflation  7:03 Bond market  10:15 Inflation globally  11:00 Allocating in a higher inflation environment  12:20 Silver, gold  14:13 Stocks  15:08 Short-selling  17:40 U.S. Dollar  21:34 Moving to Singapore  25:30 Guinness World Records 
11/9/202329 minutes, 40 seconds
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#117 Ted Oakley On Staying Rich With A Balanced Portfolio

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins in-person in Austin, Texas, for episode 117 to discuss the economy, markets, life, and his new book, “Stay Rich With A Balanced Portfolio.”  With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. 0:00 Welcome Ted Oakley to the show 1:08 Macro outlook  3:10 Economic picture  5:06 Wealthy don’t mind being safe right now 8:00 Short-term treasuries  9:16 10-year Treasury  14:13 Inflation  17:15 Investor bias  20:20 Ted Oakley’s upbringing  27:04 Writing Staying Right With A Balanced Portfolio  30:30 Folks can afford to wait now  31:50 Psychology of investing  39:00 Gold  40:27 What is a balanced portfolio these days?  41:51 Every landing is hard  44:16 The small investor  46:20 The curse of second-generation wealth 
11/7/202351 minutes, 4 seconds
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#116 Lyn Alden On Broken Money, Higher Inflation, Gold, And Bitcoin

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 116 to discuss her new book, “"Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better.”  Links:  https://www.lynalden.com/ https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6 https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ 0:00 Welcome Lyn Alden to the show  1:11 Macro picture  4:18 1940s comparison  9:04 Fiscal spiral  12:49 Inflation in Egypt  20:00 Expectations of a recession, higher inflation  23:20 Stagflationary outlook  25:30 Why is money broken?  28:44 160 currency bubbles  30:33 Why is the system so antiquated?  34:45 Self publishing  36:40 Role of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency  45:00 Gold  47:41 Bitcoin  51:30 Could Bitcoin ever be a bubble?  55:18 Role of central banks with the rise of Bitcoin  57:43 Parting thoughts 
11/2/202359 minutes, 50 seconds
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#115 Dr. Lacy Hunt On The Impending Recession

Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we're facing an impending recession. Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist.He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics." Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others. This is the 54th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases. Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well. 0:00 Welcome Dr. Hunt 1:55 Macro picture  3:00 Corollary between severity of inflation and recession 4:50 An untenable situation for moderate/modest households  6:29 Looking under the hood of the economy  9:50 Michigan consumer sentiment index  11:55 Coordinated fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic  14:20 Law of diminishing returns  17:03 What does a hard landing look like  20:30 Another contra cyclical development in the financial cycle  23:00 A deep/short recession or long/narrow recession 26:00 Debt, demographics  29:40 US dollar  30:40 Private spending has a positive multiplier, government spending has a negative multiplier  36:06 Other Deposit Liabilities (ODL)  41:55 Contra normal developments 43:15 Discretionary monetary, fiscal policy have failed 48:30 Fed needs to move away from full discretion 50:20 Groupthink at the Fed, no diversity of opinion 54:00 Classical economist  57:00 5 phases of the business cycle  
10/31/20231 hour, 15 seconds
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#114 Bob Elliott On Why It's Time For A 10% Gold Allocation

Bob Elliott ( @BobEUnlimited), cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 114 to discuss the macro picture, why the odds of a recession are increasing, and why it might make sense to allocate 10% of a portfolio to gold.  This episode was recorded on Friday, October 20.  Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues. Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups, including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. He revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision-making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions. 0:00 Welcome Bob Elliott  0:45 Macro picture  2:30 Probability of a recession has gone up  5:20 Bond market  8:30 Bond sell-offs are self-correcting  14:20 Higher for longer, but how much longer?  18:03 Fed’s 2% target for inflation  20:20 Jamie Dimon’s 7% rates comment  22:29 Allocated to gold and diversified commodities 
10/26/202330 minutes, 6 seconds
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#113 Jim Rickards On What The Israel-Hamas War Could Mean For The Global Economy

Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) returns to the podcast to discuss what the Israel-Hamas war could mean for the global economy, the impact on oil prices, and the rise of antisemitism on American college campuses.   This episode was recorded on October 19.  Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.  An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:  http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards 0:00 Welcome back to the show, Jim Rickards 1:20 The big picture, according to Rickards  2:16 Horror of October 7  8:27 Israel’s response in Gaza  10:30 Egypt, Jordan unwilling to take in Palestinians  12:16 Ground invasion and logistics  13:45 A much more brutal, drawn-out and violent result  15:20 What this could mean for investors  21:00 A financial war  26:00 Greatest threat to the dollar 28:00 Ineffectiveness of sanctions  34:00 Antisemitism on college campuses 
10/24/202339 minutes, 33 seconds
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#112 Darius Dale: Why We Could Have A Worse Recession Than Investors Anticipate

Darius Dale (@DariusDale42), founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, joins Julia La Roche on episode 112.  In this episode, Darius presented his proprietary 42 Macro Weather Model to share his economic and market outlook. Growth in the real economy is expected to decelerate over the next 12 months, while inflation is reaccelerating.  Darius’ model predicts below-normal returns for the stock and bond markets over the next three months. It also suggests above-normal returns for the U.S. dollar and below-normal returns for commodities and Bitcoin. A key takeaway is that with so many negative indicators, cash is currently the preferred asset.  Darius also discussed the likelihood of a recession, citing that the most probable window for its onset is Q4 of 2023 to Q1 of 2024. Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm’s economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale. Links:  42 Macro https://42macro.com/ Darius on X/Twitter https://twitter.com/DariusDale42 42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro 42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media. Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Darius Dale to the show  1:15 Macro view using the 42 Macro Weather Model  6:50 Recession outlook  8:45 Indicators of a broader breakdown in the business cycle  13:00 Inflation was going to bottom at a level inconsistent with 2% mandate 14:30 Rethinking expectations for inflation target  20:30 Fed outlook  26:44 Higher for longer and the duration of how long  28:49 Why we could have a worse recession than investors are anticipating  29:48 Fed won’t be able to do large-scale asset purchase programs that we’re used to 30:35 Fourth Turning empirical analysis  33:55 Powell  35:50 Where are we within The Fourth Turning?  38:00 Parting thoughts 
10/19/202340 minutes, 56 seconds
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#111 David Hay: The Odds Of A Recession Are Going Up, Not Down, With Each Passing Day

David Hay, co-CIO at Evergreen Gavekal and author of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack, joins Julia La Roche on episode 111. In this episode, Hay makes a case that the odds of a recession are going up, not down, with each passing day.  The conversation dives into the bond market, exploring the shift to a secular bear market and the implications this holds for the broader financial ecosystem. Elsewhere, Hay shares where he’s allocated and why he’s mildly bullish on energy. He also points out we have a supply problem, and we’re likely to experience an acute and lasting oil shortage. Links:  Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/ Bubble 3.0 Audiobook: https://awesound.com/a/bubble-30-historys-biggest-financial-bubble Evergreen Gavekal: https://evergreengavekal.com/about-us/ David Hay: https://evergreengavekal.com/team/david-hay/ The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ Timestamps:  0:00 Welcome David Hay to the show  1:20 Macro view  2:50 Odds of a recession are going up with each passing day  4:17 Misleading data  6:30 Higher for longer’s impact on bankruptcies  7:40 GDI recession  10:45 Federal Fiscal Funding Fiasco  12:29 Structural bond bear market  15:27 Supply and demand in bond market  17:44 Hedge funds buying USTs with leverage / the basis trade  19:40 T-bills  21:26 A ‘transitory’ bond rally  25:30 The country is circling the drain  28:00 Bondholders are going to be the sacrificial lambs  29:20 Where do you want to be allocated  31:40 We’re going to have an oil supply problem  33:00 Parting thoughts
10/17/202335 minutes
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#110 Marc Chandler: The Dollar's Rally Is, If It's Not Over Yet, It's Nearly Over

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of the blog Marc To Market, joins Julia La Roche on episode 110. Chandler, who has three decades of experience in capital markets and foreign exchange, argues that the dollar trending higher since the end of the Great Financial Crisis is coming to an end. "It seems to me in the stock market, you need a new opinion, like every week or every two weeks, but the currency markets just trend for a long time. And I think that the dollar's rally is, if it's not over yet, it's nearly over," Chandler said. As of late, the dollar has been strong, but that's likely due to the Fed being more aggressive in raising rates and the U.S. economy looking better than the rest of the world. The Fed's tightening is likely coming to an end, and the economy weakening is likely to bring the dollar's rally to an end. Links: Marc to Market: http://www.marctomarket.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/marcmakingsense Bannockburn Global Forex: https://www.bannockburnglobal.com/ The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media. Learn more: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome Marc Chandler to the show 1:20 Macro view and forex market 3:30 Dollar likely peaked already 6:50 What's lifted the dollar is coming to an end 7:30 Headwinds for US economy 11:30 Dollar is overvalued 15:00 Currency misalignment creating opportunity for U.S. investors to diversify more to Europe/Japan 18:20 Recession 20:30 Government spending/ deficit 22:30 Wholesale/retail price for money 24:36 Why not let the business cycle play out? 29:27 Minksy moment? 30:30 Debt is a problem, but not yet 36:40 Biggest risk for Marc 40:36 Thoughts on crypto
10/12/202344 minutes, 9 seconds
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#109 Danielle DiMartino Booth: 'It’s Clear That The U.S. Economy Is In A Recession If It Wasn't For Everything That Uncle Sam Is Either Spending Or Fudging'

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 109. In this episode, DiMartino Booth argues that the U.S. economy would already be in recession if it weren't for the government's spending. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ Timestamps:  00:00 - Welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show  1:06 - Macro outlook on the economy, discussion on job market and revisions 3:56 U.S. economy is clearly in a recession if it weren’t for government spending  6:30 - Discussion on the Federal Reserve and the higher for longer regime 9:20 An about-face for equity investors   11:46 - Conundrum for RIAs 15:22 - Biggest risk is in middle portion of commercial real estate and corporate debt 17:30 - Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and a passive investing bubble?  18:27 - Discussion on Federal Reserve's zero bound interest rate policy 22:30 - Geopolitical risks following an attack in Israel 24:30 - US deficit at wartime levels, fiscal responsibility and potential long-term consequences 26:30 - Conclusion
10/10/202328 minutes, 10 seconds
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#108 Chris Whalen On The ‘Silent Crisis’ — The Looming Commercial-Led Recession

Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108. In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis’ lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot. Links: Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show  1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit  2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon 3:34 Commercial real estate risk  4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income  5:30 Commercial, not consumer  6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing  9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed  11:24 Landlords are a small business  13:00 Silent crisis 14:50 Impact on banks  16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive  17:30 A strange economic cycle  19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market  20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade 21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks 22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting?  23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers  27:00 Parting thoughts 
10/5/202328 minutes, 53 seconds
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#107 Claudia Sahm: The Economy Is At An Inflection Point 

Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, the founder of Sahm Consulting and creator of The Sahm Rule — a recession indicator — joins Julia La Roche on episode 107 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro and the Federal Reserve.  In this episode, Sahm noted that the economy is potentially at an inflection point, and we’ll know soon if we’re getting a soft landing or are headed in a slow grind that could lead us over the edge and into recession. At the moment, she’s in the 50-50 baseline case when it comes to recession. To be sure, Sahm is concerned about the cooling in the labor market. She noted, "Once things get going in a bad direction, they keep going.”  Throughout her career, Sahm has worked at the Federal Reserve, the White House, ad has advised Congress. She’s the creator of the  Sahm Rule, a reliable indicator of a recession based on the unemployment rate. The rule was developed as a trigger for automatically sending out relief like stimulus checks in a recession, taking the politics out of it.  Links: Stay-At-Home-Macro: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com X: https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/claudiasahm/ 0:00 Welcome Claudia Sahm  0:44 Potentially an inflection point  2:07 Labor market  3:40 What’s weighing on consumers?  6:30 Long and variable lags  10:03 Has the Fed done too much?  11:50 Risk of doing too much is aligned with the risk of doing too little  14:58 Fed’s inflation fight  19:02 Assessment of the consumer today  23:09 Great Recession  25:54 Sahm Rule  31:17 Are we in a recession according to the Sahm Rule?  32.22 Labor  36:00 Risk of a recession? 40:05 50/50 case of a recession  42:56 Housing  47:22 A decade Federal Reserve  53:00 Storytelling is the most important part of the forecasting  57:00 Groupthink at the Fed  1:01:12 Parting thoughts 
10/3/20231 hour, 4 minutes
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#106 Harald Malmgren & Nicholas Glinsman: The U.S. Treasury Market Is The ‘Ultimate Wrecking Ball’ 

Dr. Harald Malmgren and Nicholas Glinsman, co-founders and partners of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, join Julia La Roche on episode 106 for a deep discussion on macro, geopolitics, politics, and the implications for financial markets. Links: Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/ “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf 0:00 Welcome Harald and Nicholas to the show  1:00 Harald Malmgren’s macro view  2:20 Huge debt situation worldwide, and growing U.S. budget deficit  3:30 Strong dollar, lots of disruption  4:55 U.S. Treasury Market is the ‘ultimate wrecking ball’  8:00 Malmgren-Glinsman’s call on China  10:00 Problems for the Treasury Market  11:19 Looking 3-months, 6-months, and a year out  15:00 10-year Treasury likely going north of 5  20:25 Implications of higher rates  24:19 Negative economic outlook doesn’t mean rates will come down 26:43 Stagflation/ where to invest in a stagflationary environment  37:20 Is it realistic to get back to a 2% inflation target?  42:00 When are we going to trim this fiscal monster?  43:30 The big risk today - the fiscal imbalance  49:00 Biden  53:58 Leadership  56:00 Message for Millennials  1:01:30 Hal Malmgren on political teamwork across parties  1:04:22 Parting thoughts 
9/28/20231 hour, 8 minutes, 27 seconds
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#105 Sam Burns: The Economy Isn't Headed For Recession Any Time Soon

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research (www.millstreetresearch.com), an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 105. In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis. When it comes to the economy, Burns points out that the economic data has been better than expected and that inflation is headed in the right direction after the worst of it peaked last year. He doesn’t expect an imminent recession in the next six to 12 months. Instead, he expects a gradual slowdown in the economy rather than a sudden fall off a cliff. As for markets, Burns is overweight equities compared to bonds. Burns, who had been bullish stocks earlier this year amid the pessimism, pointed out that things have gotten back to more normal expectations.   Burns has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Burns worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process. Learn more at www.millstreetresearch.com. 0:00 Welcome Sam Burns to the show  0:57 Top-down, bottom-up approach to research  2:23 Macro view today 4:15 Better-than-expected economic data, inflation coming down  6:13 The balance between fiscal and monetary policy  8:14 A gradual slowdown in the economy 11:05 Worst of inflation peaked last year  14:19 Can inflation get to 2-2.5%? 16:06 Higher for longer  18:10 Not currently expecting a recession in the next 6-12 months 20:00 Consumer  22:25 Markets  25:08 Bond market  32:00 Stock market  36:40 Opportunities in the market  39:15 Traditional 60/40  41:30 Parting thoughts 
9/26/202343 minutes, 20 seconds
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#104 Christopher Zook On Stagflation, Energy, And A 'Generational Opportunity' In Commercial Real Estate

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees just under $6 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 104 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion.  In this episode, Zook shares that he still sees stagflation ahead. In this environment, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets, particularly in energy and real estate. Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber. 0:00 Welcome Christopher Zook to the show 1:07 Macro view today  2:50 The Fed likely to maintain credibility  4:08 Inflation and stagflation  5:40 Stagflation impact on stocks and bonds  8:30 Entering into a lost decade  11:44 Passive investing v. Active investing  16:20 Dichotomy in the market  19:00 Fiscal picture in the US 22:19 Betting against subprime  22:53 Concern about the consumers’ spending habits 25:27 Investment opportunities  28:52 Commercial real estate  34:27 Energy
9/21/202342 minutes, 57 seconds
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#103 Matt Higgins: The Only Way Out Is A Reckoning

Wall Street Journal bestselling author Matt Higgins, author of “Burn the Boats” and co-founder and CEO of RSE Ventures — a private investment firm that focuses on sports and entertainment, media and marketing, food and lifestyle, and technology — joins Julia La Roche for episode 103 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, the consumer, artificial intelligence, and unlocking your individual potential.  Links:  Burn the Boats: https://www.amazon.com/Burn-Boats-Overboard-Unleash-Potential/dp/006308886X? Matt Higgins on X: https://twitter.com/mhiggins Matt Higgins on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-higgins-rse/ RSE Ventures: https://rseventures.com/ A quick correction: I mistakenly referred to an episode featuring Peter Cecchini in a discussion about the consumer. The episode I should have referred to would have been the most recent Larry McDonald episode (ep. 101). I apologize for the error. - Julia Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Matt Higgins  1:16 Macro view  2:29 The consumer is laboring under a mountain of debt 5:00 Housing market at a stalemate  6:03 “‘Soft landing’ is a euphemism for soft-peddling”  8:50 Valuations  10:45 Purpose of raising rates  13:12 Only way out is a reckoning  13:45 How is Matt Higgins preparing?  15:45 Bullish long-term  17:30 Greatest catalyst of wealth creation in our lifetime  20:12 Burn The Boats book  25:30 Metaphorical boats that hold you back  31:09 Career  35:50 Education system not designed to meet a student where they are  38:30 Opening up 41:30 Most important skills of a founder  42:45 Rex Ryan  46:15 Best part of the book 48:40 Parting thoughts 
9/19/202351 minutes, 44 seconds
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#102 Masha Bucher On The State Of Venture Capital, Investing In AI, And How To Navigate Today's Market

Masha Bucher, founder and general partner of Day One Ventures, joins Julia La Roche on episode 102 for a discussion of the state of venture capital, investing in artificial intelligence, valuations, navigating PR, the changing media landscape, meeting Jeff Bezos, and more. https://www.dayoneventures.com/ 0:00 Intro + welcome Masha to the show 1:08 Venture capital landscape today 2:40 Decreased interest in late-stage investing, not early-stage 4:50 Investing in AI ahead of the AI boom 7:45 Robotics 9:25 Correction for generative AI companies? 11:33 Meeting Jeff Bezos 14:00 Valuations 19:00 Investment activity 20:50 Vetting companies 26:48 Public relations to venture capital 31:35 When to get a PR agency? 36:12 Changing media landscape 40:00 Exits 45:35 Meeting founders through social 48:40 Starting a VC fund
9/14/202352 minutes, 43 seconds
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#101 Larry McDonald: The Probability Of Sustained Stagflation Is Rising

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101. 0:00 Welcome Larry to the show 1:00 Macro picture  2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising 3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation  5:32 Stagflation  9:20 One-year breakevens  10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI 14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market  18:40 Indexing creating a bubble  23:15 Regional bank risks  27:25 Buy into capitulation selling  29:17 Economic picture today  34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade 37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)  39:34 Zombies  42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value 47:00 Shift to stagflation 50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives
9/12/202353 minutes, 46 seconds
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#100 Bill Ackman On Activist Investing, The Economy, And Learning From Mistakes

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman (@BillAckman), CEO of Pershing Square Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 100 for an exclusive and wide-ranging conversation. In this episode, Ackman revisits the various eras of his investing career, from his first stock purchase as a Harvard Business School student to his bet against MBIA and his activist stake in Wendy’s. He also discusses his transition to a “quieter” phase of activist investing and his foray into tech investing with the recent addition of Google's parent company, Alphabet. Along the way, Ackman shares lessons and insights on a range of topics, including raising capital in the face of rejection, learning from mistakes, and the importance of optimism and free speech. Ackman also provides an update on the macroeconomic outlook, shares his thoughts on the 2024 presidential election, discusses the recent regional banking crisis, and more. 0:00 Welcome Bill Ackman to the show  0:25 A ‘self study’ in investing  1:30 The first stock Ackman purchased  4:00 Raising capital like ‘blind dating’  5:45 Willingness to go against ‘the system’  8:30 Origins of Ackman’s persistence  9:20 Incentives drive human behavior 11:30 Learning from mistakes/failure  12:50 Optimism  15:05 Why Ackman/Pershing Square survived the challenging years   17:50 Codifying the eight principles in stone  19:30 Three eras of Pershing Square 26:30 Rise of passive/indexing 31:10 Twitter/ free speech  34:10 Macro assessment  35:30 Longer-term risks to the economy  37:45 2024 election  39:40 Would Ackman ever run for office?  41:10 Regional banks  43:00 Buying Google/ impact of AI  48:06 $600 million to philanthropy  50:30 Parenting 
9/7/202350 minutes, 57 seconds
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#099 Peter Cecchini: 3 Reasons Why We're Headed Toward Recession

Market strategist Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund with $4.5 billion in AUM, joins Julia on episode 99 to explain why the U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. In this episode, Cecchini shares the three reasons why he’s taking a cautious stance and why it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” we’ll see a recession. Links: https://www.axoniccap.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercecchini/ 0:00 Intro 0:57 Macro picture/ remaining in the recession camp 2:29 3 reasons why we’re headed toward recession 4:19 American consumer 5:31 Equity markets 8:34 Credit markets 12:06 CMBS, the beginnings of a repricing 15:43 Vulnerabilities 18:08 Zombie companies 22:37 Fed outlook 26:00 How Cecchini got ahead of inflation 27:50 Long and variable lags question
8/29/202331 minutes, 12 seconds
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#098 Rick Rule: 'Potent And Very Ugly Cocktail' In A Rising Interest Rate Environment

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to the show for episode 98, featuring a discussion on the macro environment. Rule, who has 50 years of investing experience, looks at the macro picture from the lens of a credit analyst. He's long-term optimistic but short-term pessimistic. 0:00 Intro 0:59 Macro picture 2:30 Arithmetic of the deterioration in purchasing power 4:10 Rich Men North of Richmond 5:20 Rule’s savings losing purchasing power at about 7% compounded 7:00 Severe but survivable 10:45 What is the fair value of gold? 12:50 No one size fits all for how to own gold 15:20 Arithmetic around long bonds is lousy 19:40 Underlying economy has been amazingly strong 22:47 A richer world is good for everyone 23:40 Future for younger generations
8/24/202329 minutes, 47 seconds
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#097 Peter Borish: My Concern Is More Than A Recession

Legendary trader Peter Borish, president of the Computer Trading Corporation, joins Julia La Roche on episode 97. In this episode, Peter shares his macro outlook, and why we’re in the early stages of a longer term rising rate cycle. He also revisits his time working with Paul Tudor Jones at Tudor Investment Corp, the 1987 stock market crash and its aftermath, and some of the lessons and principles he’s learned over the years.  Links:  https://twitter.com/pborish https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-borish-bb54119/ 00:00 Intro 0:43 Macro view  2:30 This really isn’t the 70s  4:55 More like post WWII  7:14 Tax rate 8:42 Debt 11:38 Implications of higher rates 13:50 We’ll see wages go up more 14:53 S&P likely to move down from here  16:10 Difference between cautious/bearish  17:15 Concern is making policy mistakes  18:30 More on the markets  21:03 Risk management  23:10 Learning from mistakes  25:00 You have to trade your own personality  27:30 Advice for young people  29:50 1987 Crash  35:00 Robin Hood Foundation 38:00 Assessment of New York City today  40:30 Return to office  42:00 Brady Commission  44:40 Paul Tudor Jones  48:30 Parting thoughts 
8/22/202351 minutes, 40 seconds
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#096 Michael Howell: It's Bonds, Not Banks, That Look Dangerous

Michael Howell (@crossbordercap), CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 96 to discuss what's happening in the bond market. Howell recently shared a piece on his Substack, "It's Bonds, Not Banks, That Look Dangerous." Read the piece here: https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-bonds-not-banks-that-look-dangerous Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Intro 1:02 Macro view today 2:26 Why is the bond market so important 6:40 Pressures in the bond market 10:15 Term premia 14:43 BRIC economies’ gold-backed currency 16:16 Who is going to want to buy the Treasuries? 19:00 Bond market is distorted 22:50 US dollar 27:30 Liquidity
8/17/202334 minutes, 26 seconds
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#095 Carol Roth: You Will Own Nothing

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 95 to discuss her newest bestseller, "You Will Own Nothing."  Links:  You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/ Follow Carol Roth on Twitter: https://twitter.com/caroljsroth 0:00 Intro  1:00 World War F  4:19 Writing for the underdog  7:50 Social credit  13:50 Useful idiots  19:45 Cancel culture  21:55 ESG  27:00 Elon Musk  29:50 Housing  35:20 More institutions buying homes  39:30 Macro picture  44:40 What can the individual do to reclaim the ‘American Dream’? 
8/15/202350 minutes, 5 seconds
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#094 Todd Gordon: Why We're Not Headed Toward Recession

Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 94 to break down markets and the opportunities he sees in this current environment. Todd has been a CNBC contributor since 2010 and continues to provide actionable, insightful, and light-hearted commentary for CNBC.  He is known for blending technical and fundamental analysis to interpret the ever-changing market landscape to produce specific trading and investment ideas for CNBC viewers and his clients. Currently, he is one of the only CNBC contributors who manages his actual investment account live with full transparency on the ‘TradingNation’ web show.  He has appeared on various shows such as CNBC Fast Money Halftime show, Fast Money, Squawk Box, Power Lunch, Squawk Alley, Squawk on the Street, Money in Motion, and the CNBC Stock Draft. He started his career as a professional proprietary trader of NYSE listed stocks in San Diego, California in 2001, then moved to Connors Capital, A CTA and hedge fund in 2004, and then back east on Wall St with Forex.com / Gain Capital.  In that dual role, Todd wrote the widely followed Strategy of the Day research report, while trading for the parent company’s hedge fund GAIN capital during the 2008 financial crisis. Todd successfully guided his readers through that wild market time building enough of a following to launch his own research business TradingAnalysis.com in 2010. Since 2010, TradingAnalysis has grown to serve clients in over 100 countries as Todd and his team guide their clients through the markets by trading their actual live portfolios showing the good, bad, and the ugly. He is gearing up to launch his own wealth management business in 2021. Todd attended St Lawrence University while majoring in economics and competing on their Division I alpine ski racing team. He transferred out to focus on business at University at Albany, earning a Bachelors of Economics, where he continued his ski racing career. Follow Todd on Twitter @toddgordonTA 0:00 Intro 1:16 Macro setup today 2:25 New age of investing 4:30 Soundbites and hot takes 6:00 Bullish? 8:18 Interpretation of the yield curve 12:35 Disinflationary environments and stocks 15:07 Tech boom 20:00 Rally is broader than you think 23:07 Relationship between US yields and value/growth rotation 27:23 Stocks in a rising rate environment 31:07 What have the bears gotten wrong? 33:54 Elliott Wave, explained 38:05 Dow to double in the next five years? 41:00 Made a mistake from being too bearish? 42:30 Parting thoughts 46:35 Active v. passive
8/10/202350 minutes, 12 seconds
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#093 Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Is Here — How Will This Crisis End

Neil Howe, author, historian, economist, and consultant who is best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 93.  Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society. A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement. Links:  Twitter: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734 0:00 Intro 1:21 Generational Theory  5:00 Generations arrive in patterns  8:00 These periods of crisis come once in a lifetime 11:20 Writing “The Fourth Turning” in 1997  13:00 Fourth Turning catalysts  15:30 Sales of “The Fourth Turning” book accelerated since pandemic  16:50 The role of Millennials in the Fourth Turning  20:00 Younger people losing faith in democracy  21:18 Generational archetypes  27:43 Millennials as the “Hero”  33:40 Fourth Turning will likely end in the early 2030s  39:00 An internal or external conflict?  44:00 Macroeconomic picture and the Fourth Turning  49:00 Relationships  50:28 What keeps Neil up at night?  53:00 Optimistic about the future 
8/8/202354 minutes, 21 seconds
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#092 Milton Berg On Why There’s Strong Evidence The Market Won’t Do Well

Milton Berg, CFA, the CEO and Director of Research of MB Advisors (https://miltonberg.com), joins Julia La Roche on episode 92 for a deep dive into his technical analysis and macro. Berg focuses on "Turning Point Analysis,” where he looks for turning point ends of trends. In this episode, Berg shared reasons for why he sees strong evidence that this market won't do well and the bull market may be ending and heading toward a significant correction. 0:00 Intro 0:37 Long-term big picture 6:27 Short-term big picture 8:54 Turning points in the market  11:00 No evidence of momentum. It’s an emotional feeling 21:30 Accelerations 27:02 Bank stocks and the bear market  35:40 Why he’s short right now  37:38 Gap down and gap up, explained  47:00 Price target for the S&P 500 50:00 Worried about dissing capitalism 
8/3/202352 minutes, 17 seconds
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#091 Peter Atwater On The Troubling Disconnect Between Main Street & Wall Street

On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy. Links:  The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/ Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/ 0:00 Intro / Background 2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making 3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong 4:30 The role of confidence  6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework  10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level  13:00 Executives discussing AI  14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant  15:35 The K-shaped recovery  17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower  18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences  20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today  24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election  28:00 Gen Z’s confidence?  31:00 Millennials’ sentiment  33:00 Real life moves us around  35:00 Music and the mood  38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon  39:30 Peak confidence?  40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven  41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat”  44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme 47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood”  50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands”  53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession  55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator  
8/1/202358 minutes, 36 seconds
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#090 Jens Nordvig On How AI Is Changing Investing Forever

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of Exante Data, joins Julia La Roche on episode 90 to share his macro outlook, his views on the U.S. dollar, and his latest venture — Market Reader — a startup providing real-time explanations of market movement for investors and advisors. Links Twitter: https://twitter.com/jnordvig Substack: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/ Market Reader: https://marketreader.com/ Exante Data: https://www.exantedata.com/ 0:00 Intro 0:55 Macro picture 1:57 A turning point in inflation 4:10 Evidence of an inflection point 7:35 Market 8:30 Don’t see evidence of a dramatic tip in the economy 10:00 Housing not crashing 12:40 A brief history of dollar hatred 19:00 Impact of weakening dollar on investments 20:25 Artificial Intelligence and building Market Reader 24:33 Started Market Reader pre ChatGPT 26:55 AI and the macro outlook 28:48 Two trends that are worrisome 31:40 Will Fed policy have to consider AI? 33:43 No cuts any time soon 35:13 Positives of AI for a researcher 37:50 Impact of AI on certain finance jobs 42:00 Founding a startup 45:00 Market Reader examples 48:49 How Market Reader has helped Jens' productivity 51:20 Study 52:52 Parting thoughts
7/27/202356 minutes, 3 seconds
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#089 Jim Bianco On Why Inflation Will Be Problematic And There Won't Be A Fed Pivot

Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@BiancoResearch), the president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche again for a wide-ranging conversation on the macroeconomic environment. In this episode, Bianco shares why he thinks we've seen a bottoming in inflation and that it will start to creep back up. He also explained why he doesn't see the Fed pivoting because the inflation rate is likely to be problematic. Elsewhere, Bianco explains why he's not necessarily in the recession camp. 0:00 Intro  1:00 Macro view  4:20 That’s not “TINA”  6:35 Unusual market performance this year  10:29 Thoughts on passive investing 14:00 On AI: Overhype the short-term, underestimate the long-term  18:00 Impact of AI on finance 25:05 Might not be in the recession camp  29:40 Did something already break?  32:34 Sticky inflation  36:00 Labor market is very different from what anyone thinks it is right now  43:00 Impact on cities, commercial real estate, public transportation  51:33 Regional bank risk  55:15 Energy  1:01:00 Parting thoughts 
7/25/20231 hour, 2 minutes, 29 seconds
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#088 Dr. Ed Altman: We’ve Reached An Inflection Point In The Credit Cycle 

Dr. Edward I. Altman, Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, New York University, joins Julia La Roche on episode 88 for an in-depth discussion on where we are in the credit cycle and the global phenomenon of zombie companies. Dr. Altman is a renowned professor and researcher for his bankruptcy prediction and credit risk analysis work. Dr. Altman earned his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has been with NYU Stern School of Business since 1967. He is most famous for developing the Z-Score formula in the late 1960s. The Z-Score is a financial model that uses historical data to predict a company's likelihood of bankruptcy. This formula is widely used by investors, financial analysts, and auditors as a tool for predicting corporate defaults and an aid in credit risk management. Dr. Altman has published numerous books and articles on the topics of bankruptcy, corporate distress analysis, corporate financial restructuring, and credit risk. His work has had a significant impact on both academic finance and practical investment analysis. Links:  Where We Are In The Credit Cycle: https://creditorcoalition.org/special-feature-professor-ed-altman-on-where-we-are-in-the-credit-cycle/ Wiser Funding: https://www.wiserfunding.com/ Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring and Bankruptcy Book: https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Financial-Distress-Restructuring-Bankruptcy/dp/1119481805/ NYU Stern: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman 0:00 Intro  0:49 Where are we in the credit cycle?  2:43 5 indicators (Default Rates; Recovery Rates, Required Rates of Return; Distressed Ratio; and Liquidity)  10:00 Is the market underestimating the near-term risk of defaults? 15:50 We’ve reached an inflection point  18:00 Historical default rates, benign credit cycles, and recession periods in the US 22:00 Warning of a great credit bubble in 2007  25:15 Why have defaults been so low?  28:20 Scenario of 10% default rates in credit markets? 33:30 Zombies and the Z-Score 39:40 Zombieism globally has increased from 1.5% to about 7%  44:00 Implications of keeping zombie companies alive  48:30 Why does the US have so many zombie companies?  50:00 Triple Cs risk of default  53:48 Bankruptcy v. Bailout 1:01:00 Bankruptcy reforms and impact on zombies  1:04:25 Zombies only increased slightly during Covid  1:06:30 What are people asking Dr. Altman on his lecture tour?  1:08:36 Starting a fintech called Wiser Funding  1:12:08 Parting thoughts 
7/20/20231 hour, 16 minutes, 11 seconds
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#087 Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months

Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture. Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future. 0:00 Intro 1:06 Quite cautious on the markets/economy  2:40 Chances are good that you’re going to get a recession  4:33 The magnificent seven  6:06 40% of the Russell 2000 has not had profits in the last 12 months  7:10 Inflation  9:00 Long way away from the Fed easing  10:25 Not buying stocks at reasonable prices right now  12:30 Opportunities, energy sector  15:30 Thoughts on AI   17:50 Themes  18:40 The end of globalization  22:11 Labor market  24:17 Hard or soft landing  26:00 Regional banks  27:48 Energy sector 32:50 Lobbying ETF (policy opportunities)  37:24 TINA  40:30 Fair value of S&P is probably between 3500-4100 42:00 Career in financial markets 
7/18/202345 minutes, 35 seconds
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#086 The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry On The Economy: 'I'm Fearful'

The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry (@Hendry_Hugh) joins Julia La Roche again for an unfiltered conversation on macro, markets, Bitcoin, the Fed, and more.  Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks. These days, Hendry is a luxury hotelier on St. Barts, where he spends his time surfing and still thinking about macro. He also hosts a weekly podcast called "Acid Capitalist" and shares his views on Instagram, Twitter, and Substack. 0:00 Intro 1:18 Macro picture, ‘my imagination is as dark as it was in 2007’ 5:00 “I’m fearful”, already in recession as we speak  8:18 Want to own equities right now  12:30 Bitcoin  15:00 Sitting with cash, waiting to buy  17:58 Been in a depression since 2008  22:30 Banking sector  27:30 Eurodollar system  32:00 Entrepreneurial dream has been replaced  34:50 Inflation Reduction Act is actually smart  38:00 A recession of a similar magnitude to 2008-2009  42:47 The five who know  45:30 Music and charts  47:30 Twitter 49:23 Parting thoughts 
7/13/202352 minutes, 10 seconds
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#085 Kyle Bass On China: 'We Sit At A Hinge In History Right Now'

Texas-based hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founder of private equity firm Conservation Equity Management, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, geopolitics, and the rising threat of China.  0:00 Intro  0:35 ‘Out of body experience’ meeting with former central bankers, academics 3:30 Fed is ‘completely out of touch with reality’  5:30 This has nothing to do with the Phillips Curve  6:58 Chain-weighting inflation  9:57 Frictions in society  12:15 Heading toward a recession  14:15 Commercial real estate  19:22 Yellen’s trip to China 26:00 Wall Street greed  21:03 Is the business community waking up?  26:20 Exposure to China 28:00 Risk of invading Taiwan  30:00 Talk about what Xi Jinping says  34:00 Should be ringing alarm bells about China  38:00 Need peace through strength  41:00 Economic War Department is needed 44:00 We sit at a hinge in history right now 
7/11/202346 minutes, 11 seconds
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#084 Michael Green On Passive Investing Creating Distortions In The Market Right Now

Michael Green (@profplum99), Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 84 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy and market. In this episode, Mike Green breaks down some of the implications of systematic and passive investment strategies and how they lead to the current market phenomena. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder. Follow Mike on Twitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99 Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ 0:18 When are we going to see a recession?  1:06 In the recession camp  2:40 Labor is bifurcated  4:55 Student loan debt  8:00 Implications of AI  13:55 Markets and the implications of passive investment strategies  18:10 Creating an asset bubble  21:57 What happens when the selling starts?  24:00 Driving a car uphill with no brakes  28:20 Growth of passive  33:58 Inelasticity of the markets  36:20 The Fed  42:22 Operating off fantastically outdated theories  45:00 Downside of these strategies  49:30 Narratives in the markets  54:00 Parting thoughts
7/6/202359 minutes, 23 seconds
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Nassim Taleb And Scott Patterson On Black Swans And Chaos Kings

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb), the author of “The Black Swan” and “Antifragile," joins episode 83 of The Julia La Roche show alongside veteran Wall Street Journal reporter Scott Patterson (@pattersonscott), author of “Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions In the New Age of Crisis.”  “Chaos Kings,” which features Taleb, recounts the story of Universa Investments, a Miami-based investment firm specializing in risk mitigation, deploying a tail-risk hedging strategy to limit losses from an outsized market event, like a Black Swan. Taleb is the Distinguished Scientific Advisor at Universa. Led by Mark Spitznagel, Universa is among the best-performing investment managers of the last 15 years, reaping massive gains from market crashes. During the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, Universa delivered a stunning 4,000% return during the first quarter when markets sharply sold off. The firm has posted a 15-year average annual return on capital north of 100%. 0:00 Show open 1:00 Chaos Kings story  6:40 A problem with infrequent but large losses   9:45 Precautionary Principle  12:29 Tail risk hedging  15:30 Flaws of modern finance  17:17 Mark Spitznagel learning to “love to lose”  19:00 Fragilities, hidden risks, big picture macro environment  23:43 Addressing misconceptions around Black Swans  25:30 Optionality  30:16 Experience and execution of the strategy  31:49 Black Swans v. Dragon Kings  34:30 Predicting an event is one thing; benefitting is another thing 36:00 Sornette’s Dragon Kings  38:50 Universa’s 4,000% gain  41:45 Getting to know Nassim Taleb  46:01 Rethinking investing  49:01 New age of crisis  54:40 Parting thoughts 
6/29/202357 minutes, 56 seconds
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#082 David Hunter On Melt Up In Stocks, Global Bust, And Gold $20,000 Forecast

David Hunter (@DaveHcontrarian), Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 83 to discuss his forecast for the market and economy. Hunter, who’s been in markets for 50 years, is calling for the end of a 41-year bull market. He expects the market will continue to melt up, forecasting the S&P peak at 6,000 to 7,000 before a global bust.  He’s also bullish on gold, calling for $3,000 by the end of the year. He also made a case for why gold could soar to $20,000 in the decade's second half.  0:00 Intro  0:40 Becoming a contrarian  2:40 Macro view  5:18 Stock market is one of the best leading indicators  8:40 What is the market forecasting?  11:22 Another melt up in the market  16:39 Calling for the end of a 41-year bull market 18:24 Economic and market cycles  20:17 Global bust forecast for 2024 23:05 Forecasting S&P peaking at 6,000-7,000, before 80% drop 29:00 Deflation 34:30 Bullish gold, calling for gold $3,000 this year, $20,000 second half of the decade 41:00 Outlook for the U.S. Dollar  44:00 Treasuries  47:00 The debt is ‘a giant Ponzi scheme’ 49:20 Challenge to the thesis  52:30 Parting thoughts  
6/27/202356 minutes, 57 seconds
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#081 Professor Steve Hanke Sees Decline In Inflation, Recession On The Way

Steve H. Hanke (@Steve_Hanke), professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy. Two years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. Hanke thinks the inflation story is over, and a recession is likely on the way.  Read “Did Lockdowns Work?” Here: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Perspectives-_1_Did-lockdowns-work__June_web.pdf The Hanke-Cofnas Gold Sentiment Score: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com/ 0:00 Open 0:47 Money supply drives the economy 3:00 Inflation story is basically over  4:49 Economic picture around the world  5:25 Inflation is a local problem 7:02 The Fed has been a complete disaster  12:13 One-to-one linkage in change in money supply and inflation  13:00 Path to becoming a Monetarist  15:00 Why doesn’t the Fed pay attention to the quantity theory of money  18:24 Recession  20:47 Preparing for a recession  22:18 Long-term bullish on gold  27:29 Covid lockdowns biggest policy mistake in modern times
6/15/202336 minutes, 4 seconds
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#080 Nick Glinsman: Investors Beware China

Macro investor Nicholas Glinsman (@nglinsman), co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, joins Julia La Roche on episode 80 for a wide-ranging discussion on China. In this episode, Glinsman highlights the risks investors and corporate decision-makers face with their investments in China, including the inability to get money out of the country. Link to Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/ Read Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) and Nick Glinsman’s “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper here: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf 0:00 Show open 1:08 Welcome Nick Glinsman 1:40 From Salomon Brothers to hedge funds 2:28 Harald Malmgren  5:08 Long Dollar against Chinese Yuan trade  6:25 Assessment of macro environment  7:24 The Fed  9:00 Regional banks, commercial real estate  15:00 Liquidity 18:00 Liquidity impact 23:30 China  25:50 Xi is decoupling China’s economic model  29:30 Investors need to be careful about putting money in China  34:14 Anecdote of a friend who couldn’t get capital out of the country  37:30 Getting money out of Hong Kong is difficult  43:22 A lot of corporate earnings are going to be kept in China  46:40 China Is The Next Japan  51:00 Chinese growth to disappoint headed for “Lost Decade”  55:30 EV cars 58:00 Parting thoughts
6/8/202358 minutes, 56 seconds
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#079 Brent Johnson, Creator Of ‘The Dollar Milkshake Theory,’ Explains Why We’re Heading Toward A Sovereign Debt And Currency Crisis

Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund), the CEO of Puerto Rico-based wealth management firm Santiago Capital and the creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, returns to the podcast for episode 79. Brent, who believes we’re heading for a currency crisis, is the creator of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, a framework he developed to explain how a sovereign debt and currency crisis might play out. He explained how the world was flooded with liquidity thanks to extraordinary monetary policies following the Global Financial Crisis. The Dollar Milkshake is a simplified way to demonstrate how capital — all of the liquidity that makes up the “milkshake” — would flee the rest of the world and get sucked up by the U.S. Dollar (the straw) and U.S.-based markets creating a myriad of problems globally.   During this conversation, Brent explains his Dollar Milkshake Theory and what’s changed since publicly sharing his thesis five years ago. Brent weighed in on the de-dollarization narrative and why he expects the U.S. dollar to go higher. He also made a case for investing in gold.  0:00 Show Open  1:22 Welcome Brent Johnson  2:04 Macro framework  2:57 Heading toward a sovereign debt and currency crisis  4:04 Rate hikes will likely pinch economy in back half of the year 4:50 The Dollar Milkshake Theory, explained  6:52 Why we’ll likely see easy money again 7:45 “This is not a story that ends well”   10:00 Has the Dollar Milkshake Theory changed in 5 years? 13:42 Last year solidified our thesis  17:37 Catalysts for a higher dollar 19:19 Credit crunch  21:43 Geopolitical concerns  22:40 De-dollarization  29:49 A blowback from rate hikes?  35:00 Headlines don’t match reality  37:33 Debt ceiling short-term and long-term implications  44:14 Why is the Fed continuing to hike?  48:20 Why the Fed will pivot  50:05 Regional banks  52:52 Owning physical gold as an insurance policy  55:05 Cash for optionality  56:56 Camino de Santiago  1:01:01 Parting thoughts 
5/30/20231 hour, 2 minutes, 18 seconds
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#078 Guy Spier On How Lunch With Warren Buffett Changed His Life

Zurich-based author and investor Guy Spier (@GSpier), the founder and CEO of Aquamarine Capital, joins Julia La Roche one episode 78. In 2008, Guy and his friend Monish Pabrai bid just over $650,000 for a charity lunch with Warren Buffett. That meal with the Oracle of Omaha was a transformative experience for Guy, which he wrote about in his book, “The Education of a Value Investor,” which has sold more than 40,000 copies and has also been translated into Hebrew, German, Japanese, Korean, Polish, Mandarin and Spanish. Guy completed his MBA at the Harvard Business School, class of 1993, and holds a First Class degree in PPE (Politics, Philosophy, and Economics) from Oxford University, where he studied at Brasenose College with British Prime Minister David Cameron. After completing his MBA, Guy started the Aquamarine Fund, an investment vehicle inspired by the original 1950s Buffett partnerships and run with a close replication of the original Buffett partnership rules. The focus is on investing for long-term capital appreciation and capital preservation by running a portfolio of equity investments with the goal of acquiring companies with outstanding long-term economics at a reasonable price and where there is a sufficient margin of safety between the company’s market price and its intrinsic value. Typical investors include high net-worth individuals, family offices, and private banks. 0:00 Show open 1:50 Welcome, Guy Spier 3:00 Started as a Gordon Gekko wannabe, found a ‘lifeline’ through Buffett 6:13 Reading about Warren Buffett 9:47 The pilgrimage to Omaha 11:00 Power of sending thank-you notes 17:00 Handwritten notes from Buffett 18:09 Bidding on lunch with Buffett 22:30 Lunch with Buffett was “transformational.” 27:44 The inner scorecard 30:00 Deep fear ahead of meeting Buffett 34:06 How much does the macro matter? 37:28 Siren songs of the hyped stocks 40:25 Writing with William Green 44:26 Why he changed his mind about not talking to company management 49:20 New investment process checklist items 54:15 Debt 57:10 Buffett spends time thinking about the downside 1:01:20 Content diet for investing 1:08:40 Surrounding yourself with a mastermind group
5/25/20231 hour, 15 minutes, 30 seconds
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#077 Harold Bradley On The Danger ETFs Pose To The Stock Market

Harold Bradley, a long-time investment manager and chief investment officer, joins Julia La Roche on episode 77 to discuss why Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have distorted the role of equities markets in capital formation while posing systemic risks. Bradley has broad and deep experience in mutual funds, foundations and endowments, exchanges, and private equity partnerships, including venture capital and hedge funds. His experience also encompasses investments in farmland, metals and mining, futures and options, and a track record of successful engagement with venture-backed technology and FinTech companies, including W.R. Hambrecht's OpenIPO, Euronet Worldwide, StarMine Corp (sold to Reuters) and Archipelago, LLC (IPO). In 1982, Bradley introduced first of a kind cash-settled stock index futures contract in the Value Line Composite Index while at the Kansas City Board Trade before purchasing a membership and trading for five years on the floor. In 1988, he was hired at Twentieth Century, now American Century, as the first equity trader, and built a globally recognized trading operation over the next ten years. He was the lead portfolio manager of small-cap growth funds from 2003 to 2007. He was later appointed Chief Investment Officer of aggressive growth strategies before being named President of American Century Ventures in 1999, which invested $63 million in businesses likely to disrupt the mutual fund industry. From 2003 to 2007, he managed American Century Tomorrow and a team of software engineers and developers who used artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, inference engines, and pattern recognition to develop manager compliance systems and quantitative investment strategies for American Century growth mutual funds managing $10B. The American Century trading desk received global recognition as an innovator of electronic trading techniques and protocols, including the Financial Information Exchange (FIX) Protocol steering committee that created open source standards for order, trade and settlement instructions between investment firms, brokers and exchanges in global equities and foreign exchange trading. Throughout his career, Bradley delivered Congressional testimony on stock market regulation, electronic trading, soft dollars, decimalization of stock prices, and ETFs. As Chief Investment Officer of the Kauffman Foundation from 2007 to 2012, he co-authored a vital research paper with Robert Litan highlighting risks to market stability from lax regulation of ETFs. He also co-authored widely-cited papers on subpar venture capital fund returns, with recommended best practices. He's been interviewed by CNBC, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others. Read Harold Bradley's October 2011 testimony on ETFs here: https://www.etf.com/docs/Bradley_Testimony_10-19-11_SII.pdf 0:00 Open 1:21 Harold Bradley 2:15 Accidental investor 3:00 Agricultural commodities reporter 5:43 A major structural shift 6:45 Pace of change 7:50 Wheat pit to stocks 10:29 1987 crash 13:04 Black Monday blamed on portfolio insurance. ETFs 'a form of portfolio insurance' 13:45 20 Building trading operation 16:30 Electronic trading 21:15 Fees 22:40 Flawed system was a bug, not a feature 23:01 Soft dollars 28:59 Testified before Congress six times 30:10 Risk in ETFs 32:00 Drawback to mutual funds 35:12 Why did ETFs start 38:22 Decimalization 40:30 How D.C. works 43:00 ETFs are presented as a passive investment, but they're not 48:30 KRE 53:29 ETFs have instant liquidity, but the component securities within an ETF aren't immediately liquid 57:00 Gold/silver ETFs 1:00:45 Margin lending 1:03:18 How are ETFs distorting markets and the systemic risk they pose 1:06:00 Undermining price discovery 1:10:38 Bubbles 1:11:50 AI next ETF craze 1:13:00 Punishing good management 1:17:00 Investing today 1:20:00 Investing challenges 1:22:54 Why market won't go down? 1:27:00 Fragile markets 1:28:00 ETF risk likely won't go away 1:34:00 Markets today
5/23/20231 hour, 39 minutes, 50 seconds
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#076 Herb Greenberg On The 'Golden Era' Of Business Journalism

Herb Greenberg (@HerbGreenberg) is the editor of the Empire Financial Daily e-letter, Herb Greenberg's QUANT-X System, and Empire Real Wealth. Previously, he was the co-founder of Pacific Square Research and Greenberg Meritz Research & Analytics – both independent, short-biased investment research firms. Greenberg spent more than 40 years as a financial journalist at some of the country's leading newspapers, websites, and broadcast media, where he covered almost every industry. He served as senior stocks commentator at CNBC and was a financial correspondent at the Chicago Tribune. He also spent 10 years as the daily business columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle, during which time he started his five-year run as Fortune's monthly Against the Grain columnist and was the morning business reporter for San Francisco's KRON-TV. When the Internet and online media were still emerging, Greenberg was one of the first mainstream journalists to make the shift online, when he became senior columnist at TheStreet. He later shifted to the same role at MarketWatch. When Dow Jones bought out MarketWatch, he added a weekend investor column for the Wall Street Journal to the mix. Earlier in his career, Greenberg was a reporter at Crain's Chicago Business and a business reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press. He also spent a year as an analyst at a risk arbitrage firm. Greenberg holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of Miami and completed the Herbert J. Davenport Fellowship at the University of Missouri. 0:00 Show Open 1:54 Welcome Herb Greenberg 2:40 Wanted to be a radio disc jockey, turned out to be a business journalist 4:06 Getting hooked on reporting  5:40 Path to the University of Miami  6:00 Late bloomer in journalism career  9:00 From Miami to St. Paul 10:25 Herb’s big break at Crain’s (the “bootcamp” of his career) 14:00 ‘Golden era’ of business journalism  15:08 Herb wrote the ‘original Business Insider’ column 18:08 The story Herb never talks about  22:00 State of business journalism today  24:44 Stories  27:14 Assessment of the markets and the economy  28:44 Paying the price for ridiculously low rates  30:00 Discrepancy between what’s real and the data  31:16 Markets are messy  32:55 Wish I had been more aggressive in funding 401k and IRA 34:55 Best question anyone has ever asked me  37:57 Family office analysts are happier than hedge fund analysts  42:00 Red flags  46:00 Silicon Valley Bank, regional bank failures 49:00 The ETF Monster https://www.cnbc.com/2010/09/13/man-vs-machine-the-etf-monster.html 51:30 Blaming the short-seller narrative  53:10 Concept of avoiding loss 53:50 ChatGPT is the ‘new weather’ on earnings calls 58:00 Longevity 
5/16/20231 hour, 10 minutes, 18 seconds
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#075 Mike Maloney Sees An Economic Storm ‘Far Larger Than 2008’ Coming 

Mike Maloney (@mike_maloney), author of Guide To Investing In Gold And Silver and founder and CEO of GoldSilver.com, joins Julia La Roche on episode 75 to discuss his newest book and latest warning that an economic storm is coming that will dwarf the 2008 global financial crisis and why we could see the unleashing of a massive bull market in gold and silver. You can buy Mike’s newest book, The Great Gold And Silver Rush Of The 21st Century here: https://www.amazon.com/Great-Gold-Silver-Rush-Century/dp/B0BP3HW5HJ You can read Chapters 3 and 4 of The Great Gold and Silver Rush of the 21st here: ⁠https://ggsr21.com/online-chapters/⁠ You can buy Mike's first book Guide To Investing In Gold And Silver here: https://www.amazon.com/Guide-Investing-Gold-Silver-Financial/dp/1937832740/ 0:00 Show open 1:30 Welcome Mike Maloney 2:56 Mike says the new book is not easy to find on Amazon 4:00 Macro picture today — the world is drowning in debt 5:59 ‘An evil monetary system’ 7:20 ‘You have been monetized’ 13:00 When we used gold  14:29 Modern monetary system based on ‘fraud, theft, and enslavement,’ says Mike Maloney  17:00 ‘Unless it stores value, it’s not money. Period.’  17:15 Money v. Currency  22:12 A monetary system that’s ‘an illusion'  24:00 ‘On a path toward an implosion’  26:00 CBDCs  27:58 Central Banks buying gold  28:47 China and gold  33:00 A bigger financial crisis than 2008?  35:00 ‘The Almost Everything Bubble’ and ‘The Bernanke Bust’  39:00 Open Market explained  48:33 Warping the economy  50:35 Interest in gold and silver  53:00 US dollar  54:00 Trapped in an ultra-complex system  56:26 Taxpayer takes a loss  59:00 Benefits of owning precious metals during a meltdown  1:02:50 Gold and silver could soar 
5/11/20231 hour, 32 minutes, 46 seconds
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#074 Bob Elliott: The Regional Banking Crisis Is A Policy Problem

Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited), cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 74 for a deep dive into macro, the regional banking crisis, inflation dynamics, and more. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues. Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups, including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. He revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision-making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions. Bob holds a BA in History and Science from Harvard. 0:00 Intro 1:43 Welcome Bob Elliott  2:27 Macro picture  3:30 Many people haven’t experienced a typical macro cycle in their careers 4:48 Income-led cycle, not a credit-led cycle  6:33 Areas that aren’t sensitive to rise in rates 9:33 Banking crisis  9:54 Not like 2008 13:30 Not a credit problem. It’s a policy problem.  16:00 The bank run issue  19:00 We’ve entered a point in the crisis where the ineffective policy framework is creating the instability  20:10 Bank runs are self-reinforcing  21:00 Speculators creating sizable moves in banking stocks  23:00 Best way to deal with banking crisis  25:35 Impact from the Fed’s policies  29:18 Commercial real estate risk  32:55 Globalization  36:16 Disconnect between the market and the Fed  38:42 Higher for longer most probable  40:20 Paths that align with the bond market pricing  42:30 Likelihood of getting back to the 2% inflation target  44:32 Inflation entrenchment  46:20 Risk Fed faces with inflation  47:46 Wage inflation  48:50 Raising prices and not seeing demand destruction  51:33 Teaching macro 
5/5/202356 minutes, 52 seconds
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#073 Chris Whalen On First Republic Collapse And Why More Banks Will Fail

Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 73 to discuss the failure of First Republic Bank, the Federal Reserve’s role in the spate of bank failures, and why we should expect more failures ahead.  In this episode, Whalen outlines why thee will be a repricing across the banking industries as banks have to raise deposit rates to get closer to T-bills, but many banks can’t do that. As a result, he expects that the Fed will have to drop rates before the end of the year or risk more bank failures.  0:00 Intro  1:41 Welcoming Chris Whalen  2:22 The false narrative around First Republic’s failure  3:14 The Fed panicked and started excessive open market intervention in 2019 4:09 Outliers in banking are the ones going down  5:02 It’s just like the 1980s  5:48 If banks don’t reprice, they’re not going to make it 6:20 The Fed likely didn’t recognize this existential risk  7:00 Fed buying MBS was a terrible mistake  7:47 Monetary policy is implemented in the bond market  8:11 Why was the Fed buying MBS? It’s dangerous. 10:19 Not surprised by bank failures 11:45 Most banks are insolvent  12:45 Weaker banks will get picked on, but larger banks could go down 13:36 Bank of the Ozarks successfully raised more deposits  14:00 Powell will have to drop rates before end of the year or we’ll have more bank failures  16:38 Not a failure of supervision  17:24 Where is the blame placed?  18:50 All banks are going to be vulnerable  19:50 Net Interest Margin is going to get squeezed  20:45 How many more bank failures can Powell and Yellen survive?  22:41 Different from 2008?  24:00 Impact or rate hikes  25:11 Fed raised too far, too fast, and left the banks with big losses 26:40 Commercial real estate risk  29:33 Powell could lose control of the situation if he doesn’t talk to Congress and the public about the situation 
5/2/202332 minutes, 6 seconds
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#072 Christopher Zook: A Recession Is Coming And It’s Going to Be Deeper and Longer Than People Think

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees around $5 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 72 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion.  In this episode, Zook shares that a recession is coming, and it’s “going to be deeper and probably longer than people think.” He adds that we’ll have a “manufactured recession,” where inflation is running so hot that the Federal Reserve has to raise rates fast to slow down inflation, forcing the economy into a recession. Moreover, he points out that markets believe the Fed will start cutting rates by the end of the year, something Zook does not expect to happen.   In these types of environments, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets or persistent assets that perform well, even if his hypothesis is found to be true.  Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber. 0:00 Intro 2:12 Welcoming Christopher Zook to the show 2:50 Beginnings in investing  3:43 Trading commodities to pay for college 4:40 Reading about traders  5:55 Managing risk extremely carefully  7:20 Starting own firm  8:20 Managing money at age 22  8:50 Set goal to start firm in 10 years  9:50 Tony Robbins  10:40 The bigger the way, the bigger the try  14:00 Zook’s “why”  16:20 CAZ Investments structure and focus  18:36 Thematic approach  20:30 Betting against subprime housing  25:00 Macro outlook 25:12 Meme stock bubble  26:23 It takes longer than people think to reconcile dislocations  27:07 We haven’t seen true dislocation yet  27:40 Recession is coming and it will be deeper and longer than people think  28:08 A manufactured recession  29:00 I’ll be shocked if the Fed cuts rates this year 30:06 More of a 2-3 year recession  31:00 Disconnect between the Fed and the market  33:20 Be greedy when others are fearful  33:54 Stagflation  34:34 Worst economic regime for financial assets  38:13 Opportunities  40:20 Themes right now  41:09 Cord-cutting  41:40 Opportunity in sports teams, media rights 43:55 Themes that exist in real estate today  45:40 Stress from higher rates will force refinancing  46:45 Why we haven’t seen panic selling yet  47:45 Every sector of real estate will be stressed  50:40 U.S. Dollar outlook  53:39 U.S. debt levels are terrifying  56:29 Growth of private assets  57:04 Opportunity in GP stakes 
5/2/20231 hour, 1 minute, 41 seconds
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#071 ‘The Patriot Economy’: Omeed Malik On The Rise Of A New Economy In Response To ESG

Omeed Malik (@RealOmeedMalik), founder and CEO of Farvahar Partners, a boutique merchant bank and broker/dealer which invests partner capital into growth businesses and acts as a liquidity provider of private placements on behalf of companies and institutional investors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 71 to share what he sees as an emerging parallel economy in the U.S. that’s in stark contrast to ESG. Omeed is the chairman and CEO of a SPAC called Colombier Acquisition Corp. that is taking PublicSq., a marketplace for “pro-America business and consumers,” public later this year. He also started a fund called 1789 Capital to provide “venture and growth capital to companies building the next era of American prosperity.”  Prior to starting his own firm, Omeed was a Managing Director and the Global Head of the Hedge Fund Advisory Business at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Omeed was also the founder and head of the Emerging Manager Program within the Global Equities business. In this capacity, Omeed was charged with selecting both established and new hedge funds for the firm to partner with and oversaw the allocation of financing/prime brokerage, capital strategy, business consulting and talent introduction resources. Before joining Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Omeed was a Senior Vice President at MF Global, where he helped reorganize the firm’s distribution platform globally and developed execution and clearing relationships with institutional clients. An experienced financial services professional and securities attorney, Omeed was a corporate lawyer at Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP working on transactional matters in the capital markets, corporate governance, private equity and bankruptcy fields. Omeed has also worked in the United States Senate and House of Representatives. Omeed received a JD, with Honors, from Emory Law School (where he serves on the Advisory Board) and a BA in Philosophy and Political Science, Cum Laude, from Colgate University. He holds Series 7, 63, 3, 79, and 24 registrations.  Omeed is a Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Centennial Society Member of the Economic Club of New York and a Chairman’s Circle Member of the Milken Institute. Omeed is a Contributing Editor and minority owner of The Daily Caller. 0:00 Intro 2:06 Welcoming Omeed Malik 2:50 From D.C. to corporate law to Wall Street 3:30 Started as a speechwriter in D.C.  4:11 Working for Jon Corzine at MF Global 5:12 Launching Farvahar in 2018, advising founders 5:38 New opportunity in a new economy called the “patriot economy”  6:33 D.C. is a place where you get a lot of power, but not money 7:20 The country has changed 8:05 No longer identifying as a Democrat 8:33 2016 election of Trump 9:12 Rise of China  11:33 Leaving the Democratic Party  14:15 Tulsi Gabbard  16:22 China is the most significant geopolitical threat in my lifetime  20:16 ‘Red America’ is a huge TAM  21:02 ESG is a marketing scam  23:00 ESG backlash  26:20 Opportunity for a parallel economy focused on ‘EIG’ (Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Growth) 28:30 A $7T opportunity  33:00 A bifurcated economy  34:30 Taking PublicSq. public via SPAC 35:00 Bud Light Dylan Mulvaney backlash led to spike in search for alternative beer 36:30 Scratching the surface of the opportunity  38:40 Changes on a personal level 40:00 TikTok a ‘Trojan Horse’ in a modern-day Opium War  41:00 Evisceration of the middle class 42:00 Ceding liberty when you work for a large corporation  44:41 Need to reevaluate the relationship between the U.S. and China  51:27 Optimistic for the future of the U.S. 53:00 Big Tech’s “Devil’s bargain”  55:00 Impact on relationships 
4/27/202358 minutes, 24 seconds
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#070 Axel Merk On Why Banks Are 'The Big Elephant In The Room'

Long-time macro investor Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, returns to the pod for episode 70 and a wide-ranging conversation on monetary policy, the economy, the banking crisis, problems plaguing commercial real estate, the U.S. Dollar, gold and more. In this episode, Merk points out how the economy is a mess. He also explains that those in the “soft landing” camp are ignoring “the big elephant in the room,” which is the bank balance sheets exposed to interest rate risk and commercial real estate. He later adds that the Fed’s actions are converting an acute problem into a chronic problem, where banks with holes in their balance sheets will lend less, which is a headwind to growth.  Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. 0:00 Intro 1:50 Welcome Axel Merk 2:22 Background in macro 3:32 Deep dives into central banks  4:00 The Fed is higher for longer  4:53 Big elephant in the room are the banks  6:02 Banking crisis is still here 8:40 Banking system limping along  10:38 Policymakers will bend the rules  11:29 People will invest based on next bailout as opposed to fundamentals  13:00 Commercial real estate  15:22 How to fix banks  20:07 Moral hazard?  21:30 Banking is risky  23:22 SVB depositors 29:00 Converting acute problems into chronic problems 30:00 Inflation 34:00 Stagflation a longer more persistent issue 48:00 Dedollarization  51:47 Risk of people moving out of the dollar is more than theoretical  56:41 Debt ceiling fight  1:01:01 Capitalism 
4/24/20231 hour, 7 minutes, 51 seconds
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#069 Joseph Wang On Why A Decade Of Persistently High Inflation Is Ahead

Joseph Wang (@fedguy12), the CIO of Monetary Macro and a former senior trader on the Open Markets Desk, joins Julia La Roche on episode 69 for a wide-ranging conversation on the monetary system, macro economy, and recent banking panic.  Wang is also the author of Central Banking 101, which is now an Amazon best-seller, and operates Fedguy.com, a blog on developments in the financial markets. During this episode, Wang said it’s almost inevitable that the U.S. will have a decade of persistently high inflation. He also mentioned that this trend is difficult to combat and is driven mainly by the culture and politics of the era. According to Wang, we are in the early stages of the inflationary cycle. 0:00 Introduction 1:40 Welcoming Joseph Wang on the show 2:11 From practicing law to trading on the Open Markets Desk 3:20 Practicing law is boring 4:02 Graduating in 2008  5:38 Open Markets Desk at the Fed  7:02 Central Banking 101  8:26 Misconceptions around the monetary system  10:50 Disconnect between school and real-life in macro 11:58 Commercial banks create money out of thin air  13:49 Eurodollar system  16:42 Eurodollar futures market  19:08 Market is fighting the Fed  20:17 Eurodollar banking  21:33 De-dollarization 24:00 There aren’t a lot of good alternatives to the U.S. Dollar 25:00 What it takes to be a reserve currency  25:45 Weaponization of the U.S. Dollar  26:58 Bitcoin  28:06 Will the U.S. Dollar lose its reserve status in our lifetime?  28:47 Implications of the U.S. dollar losing its global reserve status  30:33 Inflation will be a lot higher than we are used to  31:08 Big driver of inflation is the culture and politics of the era 34:27 Macro outlook  35:46 Demographic changes 39:48 Banking crisis is over  44:42 Intervention during the banking crisis  49:19 Is banking safer for depositors?  50:15 Fed is in inflation-fighting mode  53:38 Parting thoughts
4/18/202354 minutes, 52 seconds
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#068 Ray Dalio On Where We Are In The Changing World Order

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins Julia La Roche on episode 68 to discuss where we are in the changing world order, the macroeconomic outlook, and the rising tensions between the U.S. and China. Dalio revisited his thesis from his best-selling book, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail." The investor outlined three significant forces, including enormous debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the U.S., due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (the U.S.) and the existing world order. Dalio points out that the last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. 0:00 Intro 1:52 Introducing Ray 2:14 Macro picture 2:56 3 big forces shaping the world 5:14 2 other big influences 7:20 Tracking the typical cycle 7:50 We're in stage 5 when there are very bad financial conditions and intense conflict 10:20 U.S. and China approaching greater risk of War 11:02 Debt problem 12:57 If you mark-to-market bonds at existing rates, you have a lot of financially hurt entities worldwide 13:35 Silicon Valley Bank is a 'canary in the coal mine' 18:00 Political internal fighting 19:45 Emergence of populism 21:41 The cycle in the U.S. since 1945 23:45 Over-indebtedness and increasing wealth gaps 25:38 Spend more than we earn, in debt, and large wealth, opportunity, and values gaps 28:01 Can we avoid the decline? 28:41 If Ray Dalio were president… 30:16 If you worry, you don't have to worry. 31:22 U.S.-China relationship 35:00 The redline 36:40 Brinksmanship 37:15 Risk of investing or doing business in China 40:00 World order breakdown 41:33 The bifurcation 43:00 'I know I'm scaring people…' 44:40 The biggest risk on Ray's mind 45:54 'One thing Democrats and Republicans are united on is anti-China.' 49:30 U.S. Treasuries 51:42 Portfolio construction 54:24 Diversify internationally 55:58 Status of the U.S. dollar, de-dollarization story 57:57 Bitcoin views today 1:01:01 Bridgewater, after stepping down 1:03:57 Parting thoughts
4/11/20231 hour, 4 minutes, 57 seconds
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#067 Jeff Snider: Markets Are 'Screaming Bloody Murder' And Are Hedged For A 2008-Style Scenario

Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP) is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles. He is a regular contributor to Real Clear Markets and a columnist for the Epoch Times and is active on Twitter as well as He has been a guest on countless programs, including MacroVoices, and Real Vision, for his insights into the Eurodollar system, LIBOR and repo/securities lending markets., etc. During episode 67, Jeff explains that since late last year, markets have been "screaming bloody murder" in a way that hasn't been since 2007. According to Jeff, markets are hedged for a 2008-style scenario. 0:00 Introduction 1:53 Welcome Jeff Snider 2:40 Macro picture is “all sorts of ugly” 3:29 Economy in 2021 was an “artificial high” 4:00 Not just about macro, also about monetary system too 4:40 Still in the beginning stages 5:11 The economy is looking worse in short to intermediate-term outlook 6:00 Base case is mass layoffs 6:33 A false sense of confidence about the unemployment rate 9:48 Unemployment 11:43 The market is screaming bloody murder 12:48 A 2008-style scenario 14:40 Something wrong in the global system 17:30 How’d we get here? 18:20 Misconceptions around money printing and interest rates 19:45 Suffering from a lack of credit growth 22:06 The Eurodollar story 26:00 The Fed doesn’t print money 27:50 Distortions in the economy 29:00 Fed is ‘smoke and mirrors’ 33:00 What is money? 34:34 Banking crisis 36:23 Monetary system has become incredibly fragile 37:33 Fragility of the monetary system 38:07 A shortage of good quality collateral 43:00 Treasury Bills 46:00 De-dollarization story 49:00 Shortage of dollars 49:37 The Eurodollar system will be replaced at some point 53:00 The shadow money system 55:00 Eurodollar system is a black hole 58:00 Digital currencies 1:01:37 What keeps Jeff up at night?
4/4/20231 hour, 4 minutes, 42 seconds
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#066 Bethany McLean On The Rise Of Legal Fraud

Bethany McLean (@bethanymac12), author and journalist, joins Julia La Roche on episode 66 to revisit some notorious corporate failures and discuss fraud. Bethany is the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron and All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis. She has also written two mini books, Shaky Ground: The Strange Saga of the US Mortgage Giants and Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World. She also serves on the board of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago. She's a 1992 graduate of Williams College. 0:00 Background and path to journalism  1:47 Goldman Sachs to fact-checking at Fortune  4:15 Writing about investing  5:45 Another side to stories  6:37 Enron  9:20 Reporting the Enron story  14:45 Lessons from Enron  15:20 Do you own homework  18:00 Emotion in business  20:00 Short-selling  23:11 Do your own homework  24:19 Valeant stock battle  26:10 Legal fraud  30:38 A thin line between a fraudster and a visionary  33:15 World of business is crazier than ever before  37:45 Golden age of fraud?  41:03 Venture capital and private equity’s reliance on low-interest rates  43:43 A different environment  44:44 Curiosity covering corporate failures  47:00 Can greed be eliminated?  48:48 Banking crisis  49:55 State of journalism 
3/31/202357 minutes, 47 seconds
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#065 Mark Yusko: We Are On The Precipice Of The Global Financial Crisis II

Mark Yusko (@MarkYusko), founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, which manages close to $2 billion in assets, joined Julia La Roche on episode 65. In this episode, Yusko, a long-time macro investor, frames up the current macroeconomic backdrop and why we’re on the precipice of what he calls the Global Financial Crisis II as banks fail and jitters spread throughout the financial system. As Yusko puts it, “calm is the edge we need” as the crisis worsens. Yusko was the CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, contributing to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. In this episode, Yusko provides a deep dive into the Endowment Model, which takes advantage of time-horizon arbitrage. He also delves into the mandate of investing in innovation, sharing an example of a half-a-million-dollar investment that turned into a $200 million return thanks to Sequoia’s early bet in Google on behalf of Notre Dame. Yusko points out that the greatest wealth is created by being an early investor. However, making that investment requires believing in something before most people understand it, making you mocked, ridiculed, and criticized for your non-consensus action. Today, he continues to see that opportunity in blockchain technology, digital currency, and digital assets. He is again at the forefront of institutional investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018 to invest in these opportunities. 0:00 Intro  3:08 The Endowment Model  4:08 Taking advantage of time-horizon arbitrage 6:47 What else makes the Endowment Model unique? 8:00 Equity 10:20 Greatest wealth is created by being an early investor in innovation   12:08 Mark’s background 13:33 Dialogue and debate through active listening 16:00 Lessons investing in bonds 19:00 A-ha moment in venture capital  20:00 Investing in Sequoia early  21:19 Being a journalist might be the best training for investing  22:08 Half-a-million investment turns to $200 million thanks to Google investment  25:30 Living the path of technological innovation  30:40 The Truth Net explained 32:44 Macro backdrop  34:19 Liquidity drives markets  35:55 Fractional reserve banking  39:00 Banking system driven by liquidity 41:20 Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin 2009 white paper  44:00 Digital asset innovation  47:00 Bitcoin as a digital store of value 50:15 A better system  51:00 Duration mismatch in the banking system  55:00 Impact of money printing  57:16 Bitcoin  58:49 Money printing doesn’t create wealth  1:01:10 On the precipice of GFC II  1:07:00 Chance meeting with Howard Marks 1:14:30 Blockchain is an Operating System
3/28/20231 hour, 19 minutes, 28 seconds
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#064 DoubleLine's Ken Shinoda On Macro, Housing, And The Opportunities In MBS

Ken Shinoda, portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 64 to provide his macro outlook and views on housing. He also shares one of his highest conviction ideas right now. Ken joined DoubleLine at its inception in 2009. He is Chairman of the Structured Products Committee and oversees the non-Agency RMBS team specializing in non-Agency mortgage-backed securities, residential whole loans, and other mortgage-related opportunities. He is co-Portfolio Manager on the Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. He is also lead Portfolio Manager overseeing the Mortgage Opportunities private funds. Ken is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and also participates in the Global Asset Allocation Committee. Ken is also the host of DoubleLine’s “Channel 11 News” (@DLineChannel11), a YouTube and webcast series that provides market insights and commentary with peers and industry experts. 0:00 Intro 0:38 A ‘master’s degree in finance’ analyzing MBS during the GFC 2:20 Macro view 5:07 Way more negative on the economy 6:00 Structured Products, explained 7:50 Why housing didn’t crash 8:27 Mirror opposite of the financial crisis 9:30 Office space 12:00 Less of a soft landing now 13:30 Housing outlook 17:50 Existing home sales 19:11 The Great Migration 21:00 Institutional buying in housing 24:55 Why the desert states are declining 25:30 Seeing homebuilding pick up again 26:37 Investing in RMBS explained 31:50 Forbearance 33:00 Views on credit quality, performance during different market cycles 37:00 Rates 40:00 Structured products 41:41 Commercial real estate 45:00 Parting thoughts
3/23/202347 minutes, 44 seconds
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#063 Jonathan Boyar On Finding Value During Uncertain Times

Jonathan Boyar, President of Boyar Research and host of The World According To Boyar podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 63 to share how he’s finding value during uncertain times.  During this episode, Boyar shares some of the opportunities he’s finding on an individual company level when looking under the hood of the markets.  0:00 Intro  0:51 Looking for intrinsically undervalued stocks 2:06 Evolution of value investing  3:35 Dislike of the term “value investing”  4:25 Lesson of patience 6:28 Big picture is important but it’s not critical to our investment  6:58 Make decisions on each individual company  7:24 What investors should be focused on  8:00 Does the macro matter?  9:04 Steve Einhorn, Leon Cooperman 9:55 Banking crisis and opportunity in the big money center banks 11:04 You’re never going to catch the bottom, but there are attractive entry points 12:01 Catalysts for upside in banking  12:25 Markets are being driven by fear and emotion  13:11 Nibbling on stocks  14:00 Psychology to stick through tougher times  15:00 Be humble know when you’re wrong  15:50 Market outlook is cloudy  16:44 Opportunities in microcap stocks  17:09 Return to stock-picking?  17:47 Top Golf, MSG Sports, Big Banks  18:20 Importance of reading 19:01 Top Golf is a “growth stock at a value price”  21:40 Big banks for those who are “brave”  22:23 MSG Sports “special situations” thesis  28:25 The “Forgotten 40” and favorite ideas 31:41 What would provide more clarity  32:00 Long-term view  33:20 Regional banks 
3/21/202337 minutes, 26 seconds
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#062 Jim Rickards: ‘Are You Kidding Me? This Is The Biggest Bailout In History’

Best-selling author Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) returns to the podcast for the third time to share his views on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and why the intervention — especially the Federal Reserve’s new emergency lending program, the Bank Term Funding Program — is the biggest bailout in history. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. 0:00 Intro 1:00 Reaction to SVB, Signature Bank failures 1:54 The mistake Silicon Valley Bank made 4:12 Bond Math 101 4:45 The Fed is between a rock and a hard place 4:52 Huge unrealized losses on the bond portfolio at SVB 6:35 There already was leakage 9:33 Friday’s press release from the FDIC 12:50 Global ripple effects of SVB failure 14:50 Other banks had similar problems 17:08 Biggest bailout in history 23:00 Executive stock sales 24:11 There would likely have been lines at banks 25:00 The biggest crybabies were the billionaires 26:15 The banking system is effectively nationalized 32:00 This was risk management 101 39:46 The Volcker mistake 40:50 Inflation 42:30 You’ll see the Fed expanding the balance sheet 43:30 Name your poison 44:10 25bps at the next Fed meeting is the most likely scenario 44:55 This is the no-drama Fed 45:45 ECB 46:10 It’s a global economy 47:00 Panics have two stages 47:30 Credit Suisse 52:10 A road to ruin 54:35 Each bailout was bigger than the one before 55:30 A front based on confidence 58:30 Deteriorating trust in institutions 1:07:27 Gold
3/16/20231 hour, 12 minutes, 20 seconds
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#061 Willem Middelkoop On SVB Collapse, The Big Reset, And The Financial Endgame

Willem Middelkoop (@wmiddelkoop), founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of “The Big Reset: The War on Gold and the Financial Endgame,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 61. In this episode, Willem shares his reaction to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and the actions by the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and the Treasury. In response to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and FDIC have taken emergency measures to ensure all bank depositors will be made whole, including those whose funds exceeded the maximum FDIC-insured level of $250,000. He explains why the guarantee of all depositors in the U.S. banking system is inflationary. Willem also outlines his thesis from his book “The Big Reset” and why we’re already witnessing the financial endgame. Elsewhere, he shares why he expects investors will seek assets like gold, silver, and bitcoin that don’t have counterparty risks. He also details his simple model for portfolio construction. A free PDF version of The Big Reset is available here: https://www.cdfund.com/clientdata/222/media/pdf/The-Big-Reset.pdf Willem's writings on Patreon can be found here: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=84858815 0:00 Intro 1:00 Reaction to SVB failure 1:50 A record pace of rate hikes 2:10 Financial system is unstable because huge debt burden 2:41 The Federal Reserve is cornered 3:40 A big question is whether they should stop raising rates or continue raising 4:50 Raising depositor guarantee limits is inflationary 6:20 Gold, silver, and bitcoin on the rise are inflationary signs 7:20 Losing trust in the banking system? 11:00 Pressure on the dollar 15:50 Endgame of the current dollar system 17:20 The start of a new financial crisis 19:11 FDIC/Fed/Treasury move shows the desperation 20:27 A system built on paper assets 22:20 A new monetary system? 24:22 When too much money starts to flee paper assets to hard assets 25:21 Where gold, and silver could go? 29:00 How to hedge and hide? 29:35 Bitcoin is digital gold since 2014 30:00 Portfolio construction 31:05 Parting thoughts 31:59 Stress within the system becomes visible 33:20 A huge rally in stocks wouldn’t surprise
3/13/202334 minutes, 21 seconds
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#060 Tom Lee On Why Stocks Are Already In A New Uptrend

Tom Lee (@fundstrat), managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat and FS Insight, joins Julia La Roche on episode 60 to discuss macro and markets. In this episode, Tom makes a case that the markets bottomed in October 2022, and stocks have already been in an uptrend. He also shares what he thinks the bears are getting wrong. With nearly 30 years of macro markets and equity research experience, Lee is one of Wall Street's most widely recognized and followed macro strategists. He’s best known for his evidence-based work on equity markets and fast-growing technologies, including digital assets and wireless technologies. Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get a complimentary 30-day membership to FS Insight by using this link: http://fsinsight.com/julialaroche 0:00 Intro 0:31 30 years on Wall Street 3:10 How markets work 5:19 Psychology plays a far bigger role than people realize 5:54 Macro outlook 7:01 Inflation appears to be slowing 8:03 Stock market is starting to see that the valley is behind us 9:18 Inflation peaked last year 10:31 Market bottomed in October 2022 10:50 Two things happened that is a big deal for the market 12:05 What are the bears missing? 13:58 Stock market was bad between February and October 14:49 Bias in the markets 16:50 Contrarian 19:21 Recognizing biases 22:22 Investors have to pay attention to people in their 20s, 30s 23:50 Tech is more important than any other decade 25:28 Only two ways to solve the labor shortage 28:00 Thoughts on AI and large language models 31:59 The Fed 36:13 Stock market is a good discounting mechanism 38:17 Yield curve is important to respect 42:20 Why have we avoided a recession? 45:00 Tech layoffs 51:06 Contrarian ideas 55:35 Biggest risk
3/9/202359 minutes, 11 seconds
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#059 Larry McDonald: We've Permanently Come Into A New Higher Interest Rate Regime And Trillions Are Currently Misallocated

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joined Julia La Roche on episode 59. In this episode, Larry explains that trillions of dollars are currently misallocated. In other words, a ton of wealth is invested in a world designed for inflation normalization to 2% or less. Larry makes a case that inflation will be stickier, and we’ll see inflation likely normalize at 4% instead of 2%. Elsewhere, he points out that many on Wall Street have been discussing the “no landing” scenario as a good thing. However, he explains that it’s bad because without it — and without 9 to 10% unemployment — the Fed can’t kill inflation. 0:00 Intro 0:44 “Delivering pizzas” to get a job on Wall Street 4:11 Background 6:13 Democratizing information 9:14 Stickiness of inflation 11:11 Trillions of dollars are misallocated 14:20 $1 million in 6-month T-bills = $51,000 of interest 16:00 Inflation is a threat to growth stocks 18:25 Opportunities in global value stock portfolios 20:41 Next crisis that’s coming is from a government point of view 24:00 We've permanently come into a new higher interest rate regime 24:07 Debt jubilee? 27:43 Why a soft landing or no landing is really a bad thing 30:00 Economic divide, Occupy Wall Street 2.0? 35:06 Question for Fed Chair Jerome Powell 37:02 Only way to kill inflation is with a hard landing 39:19 When you don’t allow the business cycle to function you create more excesses 42:40 Opportunities in the macro environment 46:59 Renaissance in EM bond, equity funds 49:04 Reconfiguring supply chains 53:53 Young investors want to go back to the same playbook 57:02 Parting thoughts
3/2/20231 hour, 1 minute, 55 seconds
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#058 'Lunatic Farmer' Joel Salatin On The Only System That Can Ultimately Feed The World

Famed farmer Joel Salatin, the co-owner of Polyface Farm in Swoope, Virginia, joins Julia La Roche on episode 58.  Joel, featured in the New York Times bestseller The Omnivore's Dilemma and the award-winning documentary Food Inc., has been called "the most famous farmer in America." He calls himself a "Christian libertarian environmentalist capitalist lunatic farmer." In this episode, Joel shares how his style of regenerative farming is having a cinderella moment. He also outlines the frailties of a centralized industrial food system and why the decentralized, more democratized model is the way forward. According to Joel, it's the only system that can ultimately feed the world because it's the only system that honors sustainability and regenerative capacity. Learn more about Polyface and visit the farm here.  Subscribe to The Julia La Roche Show's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@TheJuliaLaRocheShow Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JuliaLaRoche 0:00 Intro 1:10 Big picture  1:40 Fragilities of centralized, industrial food system 2:35 Prices in the industrial sector have escalated  3:00 Polyface working with decentralized, democratized suppliers  3:44 A cinderella moment for Polyface 4:00 Answers, resiliency  4:50 Didn't have to raise prices as much  5:58 Ways to buy better with less money 7:55 Use your kitchen  11:00 How'd we get so far away from where our food comes from? 12:30 No freedom without participation  14:00 How to get involved  17:39 The biggest lie  19:28 Polyface Farms regenerative farming  20:00 Biomimicry  24:00 When you fight nature, nature tends to fight back 26:00 The only system that can feed the world  27:40 Scale not by centralization but by decentralization  29:40 Production per acre is way above the industry  37:10 If we had a Manhattan Project in  39:50 Living things can heal  43:00 A violation of life principle  44:00 Stigma of farming  45:49 The intellectual agrarian  46:30 The regeneration economy  48:00 You Can't have a respected farm community and a cheap food policy 49:40 Power is in the consumers' hands  51:00 80/20 Rule 55:00 Will there be a reckoning of the factory farming model? 
2/28/20231 hour, 7 minutes, 33 seconds
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#057 Milton Berg: How To Spot ‘Turning Points’ In The Markets

Milton Berg, CFA (@BergMilton), the CEO and Director of Research of MB Advisors, joined Julia La Roche on episode 57 for a deep dive into his technical analysis, which was taped on February 16. YouTube video: https://youtu.be/x7ms5ildUCQ Berg focuses on "Turning Point Analysis,” where he looks for turning point ends of trends. For example, he called the market bottom on June 16. On the day this episode was recorded (February 16, 2023), Berg explained why February 2 may have marked an important turning point in the markets, suggesting a probable end to that uptrend and a correction at least for the short term. Berg also shared that his firm is 100% short, going from leveraged long, to just 100% long to flat, and now 100% short. Milton has been in the financial services industry since 1978, with an extensive background in various roles on the buy side. Milton founded MB Advisors in 2012 to address a need for high-quality independent research with a macro, technical and historical focus. Milton began his career as a Commodities Analyst and Trader at Swiss-based Erlanger and Company. In 1980, he was a Fund Manager at First Investors Corp. and managed a natural resource fund as well as an option writing fund. In 1984, he moved to Oppenheimer and managed three mutual funds, which were each ranked as the top performer over a five-year period by Lipper. Milton then became a Partner at Steinhardt, one of the earliest hedge funds on Wall Street. More recently, he has worked with well-known titans of the hedge fund world, including Michael Steinhardt, George Soros, and Stanley Druckenmiller (Duquesne). Milton’s work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Barron’s, and Institutional Investor, in addition to other media outlets. His groundbreaking report “The Boundaries of Technical Analysis” was published in the summer of 2008 in the MTA’s Journal of Technical Analysis. His 2015 research report “Approach to the Markets” outlines his method for analyzing the stock market. Milton has held a Chartered Financial Analyst designation since 1979. The Institute for Economic Research named Milton as the Mutual Fund Manager of the Year in 1987 given his performance during the crash. That same year, Milton was jointly named with Stanley Druckenmiller as Mutual Fund Manager of the Year by Sylvia Porter’s Personal Finance Magazine. He has a forthcoming book “Milton Berg’s Guide to Technical Analysis and the Stock Market" 0:00 Intro 0:31 Background from fundamental analysis to technical analysis 2:00 Approach to technical analysis 2:44 False assumption that stocks do well over the long term 3:50 More you stray from capitalism the more likely stocks won’t perform as well 5:08 Capital gains tax is an error 6:50 Debt situation 8:50 Study of the Dow 10:00 What happened in the past will not necessarily happen in the future 10:15 Emergence of the Fed changed nature of the economy 10:54 Called market bottom on June 16 17:40 Yield curve 18:30 Coming out of the slowdown 18:50 Bullish for the year, projection of 4650 in the S&P 19:04 Turning point analysis 19:28 February 2 was a turning point 24:50 Something happened on Feb. 2 that might signal the end of the rally 36:00 Reason we had a great bull market 36:40 Bonds 39:00 Missing bull market signals 47:46 Why had stocks ignored Fed’s tightening moves? 48:00 Maybe the real decline begins now 49:39 Gold 52:40 Bitcoin is a fiction
2/23/20231 hour, 5 minutes, 31 seconds
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#056 Sam Burns On Being More Bullish On Equities In At Least A Year

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research, an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 56. In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis. He outlines why he’s recently been more bullish on equities and risk assets in at least a year. According to Burns, the economy is “not great, but it’s not as bad as expected.” He pointed out that the market had priced in much of last year's pessimism. Moreover, he’s not expecting an imminent recession like many were at the end of last year, noting that it’s, “at least being put off, if not, delayed until maybe in the next year.” Sam has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Sam worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process. We also provide customized work and special research projects for clients. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Background 2:53 Building an independent research firm 3:23 Combining top-down macro research with bottom-up analysis 5:36 Macro analysis 6:15 Distortions in the data 7:00 The economy is doing OK 7:46 Don’t think we’re heading for an imminent recession 8:45 Things aren’t going to be as bad as the bears are saying 9:49 Fed rate hikes impact on the economy 13:19 Why has the labor market held up? 17:30 Inflation 21:45 Can we get back to the 2% target? 25:50 Fiscal policy 29:44 Debt 33:09 Assessment of the markets 36:07 Opportunities 52:41 Yield curve
2/21/202359 minutes, 19 seconds
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#055 Jim Grant: Disinflation For The Short Run, Inflation For The Long Run

James Grant (@grantspub), founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a leading journal on financial markets since 1983, joins Julia La Roche on episode 55. Jim Grant is also the author of multiple financial history and biography books. His journalism has been featured in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs. He has appeared on 60 Minutes, Jim Lehrer’s News Hour, and CBS Evening News.   In this episode, Jim and Julia covered the monetary realm, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. indebtedness, gold, the Federal Reserve, inflation, bonds, and more.    According to Jim, the theme in the short run is disinflation, but inflation is for the long term. "We've boiled this down to a couple of headlines: We think that inflation is for the long term. We think that this is inherently inflationary setup we have with runaway public borrowing and with an unchecked and undisciplined engine of credit creation —the Fed — so inflation for the long run. But for the short term, we think it's things rather disinflationary, meaning the rate of rise and inflation is going to subside. And conditions will tighten for the financial markets,” Jim tells Julia, adding that, "Inflation is never transitory, at least not in the modern era, because prices never come down again, when they go up, they stay up."  0:00 Intro 0:38 How we got here 1:30 Monetary realm as an area of concern 2:29 Defining the dollar 2:57 Biggest change in sweep of financial history 4:30 Gold standard 5:50 Defining the dollar? How has it evolved 6:50 Weaknesses of the dollar 9:47 Lockdowns wouldn’t have been feasible 10:30 Origins of the great bulge in public debt 13:55 Fed actions during pandemic 16:43 Excesses in our financial and fiscal lives haven’t been fully felt yet 17:37 Rate of growth in debt far outstripping means to service it 20:30 Fed is going to carry us all into the poorhouse 22:00 Worrying about the debt 26:59 Outlook on the U.S. dollar 28:30 A poisoned chalice 30:00 Better if we lost the world reserve currency franchise 32:57 Gold 36:06 Central bank gold buying 38:20 Higher for longer? 41:00 Why the Fed might retreat? 45:00 Inverted yield curve 49:00 Does the yield curve predict a recession? 51:30 Bond market and interest conundrum 58:00 The Forgotten Depression 1:01:00 Setting up Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
2/17/20231 hour, 7 minutes, 2 seconds
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#054 Ted Oakley: A Long Way To A Normalized Investing Environment Post ‘Super Bubble’

Ted Oakley is Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors. With more than forty years of experience in advising high net worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Reaction to CPI 1:09 Fed pivot not going to happen 1:45 Jay Powell is serious about getting inflation down 2:38 Many in the industry haven’t experienced higher rates 3:00 Biases 5:00 Things will likely be more volatile the next 10 years 6:03 60/40 risk parity trade 7:10 There always comes a change in investing 8:04 Volatility in rates could reflect to volatility in bond prices 10:45 Stock picking 12:26 Macro outlook 14:20 Markets aren’t priced correctly 15:10 50% liquidity 16:20 Not timing the market, timing the value 17:00 Earnings 18:00 Assessment of markets so far in 2023 19:09 Sobering up in markets 20:00 Capitulation? 23:00 What would happen if the Fed cut rates 23:30 Debt situation 26:00 Real estate 29:08 Housing 34:00 Opportunities 34:49 Gold and gold miners 38:52 Gold continued 41:00 Bitcoin 43:20 Super bubble and what a normalized investing environment looks like 48:00 Backstory, work with foster children
2/15/202354 minutes, 8 seconds
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#053 Michael Howell On How Liquidity Drives Markets And Where We're Likely Headed

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, "Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity," joins Julia La Roche on episode 53 to provide a deep dive on what is global liquidity, why it matters, and how it drives markets.  Michael points out that liquidity is inflecting upwards and explains what's driving that move and the implications for markets, which are sensitive to these infections. What's more, with the liquidity cycle inflecting upward, the economy will likely see a turning point in the U.S., which Michael predicts will happen around May. He believes there will be a few more months of softness, but we're near "a turning point."  While many believe an inverted yield curve warns us that a recession is fast approaching, Michael explains why it's a flaky predictor and how term premia bias the yield curve. Julia and Michael also explore some of the themes from the book, "Capital Wars," including that as the investment world has gotten bigger, it's become more volatile, where financial crises are more common. They also touch upon the intensifying tussle between the U.S. and China as the dominant financial economy.  Michael founded CrossBorder Capital in 1996. He developed the quantitative liquidity research methodology while he was Research Director at Salomon Bros. from 1986. He was subsequently appointed Head of Research at Baring Securities in 1992, and was top-ranked "Emerging Market Strategist" by institutional investors for the three years before setting up CrossBorder Capital. Michael has worked in financial markets since 1981 and is a regular international conference speaker. He is a qualified US Supervisory Analyst and has a Doctorate in Economics. 0:00 Intro  0:31 Macro view 1:00 Understanding money flows  1:30 Salomon Brothers  3:35 What is liquidity and what is it signaling today 5:00 Financial markets suddenly kickstarted upwards  6:00 Crypto is purely a liquidity phenomenon  7:00 Tech bouncing significantly as liquidity has picked up  7:15 Why is liquidity turning up?  8:00 China  9:30 What's happening in the big economies 11:15 Liquidity conditions from Fed have picked up  12:50 Q.T. is dead effectively is dead in the U.S.  13:27 Implications for markets  15:06 Term premia for bond investors  17:50 Why the inverted yield curve is a flaky predictor of a recession 18:08 What are fixed-income markets signaling?  18:28 Think of the stock market as a predictor of the economy  19:09 Close to an inflection point on the economy  22:37 Global financial system is now collateral based  23:00 Term premia is biasing the 10-2 yield curve  25:34 Good reasons why the yield curve is distorted  26:19 Evidence the Fed is in control  26:45 Ukraine War 28:48 U.S. is the cleanest shirt in the laundry  29:50 Ultimate job of central banks is financial stability  31:30 Capital Wars  35:00 As the world gets bigger it becomes more volatile  35:19 China's ambition to unseat the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency  38:40 Understanding equity markets  40:17 Tech stocks  41:30 Credit is dependent upon collateral  44:13 Debt mountain has grown  47:00 Financial crises will appear more regularly in the future  47:35 Japan is the canary in the coal mine  50:00 Threat to the financial system  51:15 Need liquidity because of debt  52:00 Financial markets of Victorian London  53:17 Yield curve control is coming klTK j
2/7/20231 hour, 1 minute, 9 seconds
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#052 James Lavish: We're Walking A Very Thin Tightrope Over A Cliff

"Reformed" hedge fund manager James Lavish (@jameslavish), the author of The Informationist, joins Julia La Roche on episode 52 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro and a deep dive into the debt problem in the U.S.  In this episode, Lavish makes a case that the world has changed in a way that the market understands, and that is — we can't go into economic turmoil because we're walking a "very thin tightrope over a cliff" because of the massive amounts of debt in the U.S. Lavish explained that the tax base in the U.S. currently brings in about $4.6 trillion, which could get impacted by a recession. At this same time, a massive amount of entitlement spending goes to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and unemployment in addition to long-term contracts for defense spending and, finally, interest payments on bonds we've issued. Adding up all those expenditures, it's over $6 trillion annually, so the U.S. is spending $1.4 trillion more than its bringing in tax revenue. As Lavish puts it, if the U.S. were a company, it would be considered a "Zombie."  "The Fed's got to either lower rates to appease The Treasury because the Treasury has got all these payments it's got to make, or [The Fed's] got to somehow get inflation under control without crippling the economy. It's a problem," Lavish said on the show. Right now, the U.S. is in a precarious position. The big picture is this tension between inflation versus recession, where the Treasury needs inflation to help inflate away all this accumulated debt, while at the same time, the Fed wants to curb inflation via rate hikes and quantitative tightening, which creates a risk of pushing the economy into recession.  As Lavish puts it, the Fed and the Treasury are "painted into a really tight corner here, and the market knows it. And they know the first sniff of what would be instead of inflation — deflation — the first sniff of that, the Fed's got to print again."  It's one of the reasons Lavish, currently launching a hedge fund, The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund for accredited investors, wants to own bitcoin because it's a system that doesn't depend on inflation.  0:00 Intro 0:41 Macro view 2:00 Understanding money 2:50 Inflation vs. Recession 4:00 Market participants terrified of missing the pivot 6:00 Why did the market melt-up on Thursday 7:54 Market conditioned to Fed put 11:00 We can’t go into economic turmoil because we’ve got so much debt 12:20 Fed and Treasury painted into a tight corner 15:42 How does the sovereign economy work? 18:20 U.S. is essentially a “Zombie” country 20:00 We’re in a debt spiral 23:00 We’re going toward Japan 28:00 There’s no longer free money 29:40 High probability of a credit event 30:40 Money printing is the root of all evil 33:50 Bitcoin thesis 36:00 Money will continue to pour into Bitcoin 38:40 Bitcoin is still seen as a risk asset 42:00 Bitcoin Opportunity Fund 46:00 Bitcoin should not be correlated to anything 47:00 Treasury needs inflation, Fed doesn’t want inflation 49:30 Likelihood of a recession 54:27 Why inflation is higher than what’s reported 58:00 Parting thoughts
2/3/20231 hour, 4 minutes, 47 seconds
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#051 Peter Boockvar On The 'Death By A Thousand Cuts' Economy

Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar), Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and author of macro newsletter The Boock Report, joins Julia on episode 51 for a wide-ranging conversation on macroeconomics. In this episode, Boockvar makes a case that investors need to get accustomed to a slower rate of growth in this new interest rate environment where rates will stay higher for longer. As Boockvar puts it, it’s a “death by a thousand cuts” economy. The conversation touched on the housing market, the Federal Reserve, earnings, layoffs, China’s reopening, inflation, and much more. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Macro view 1:12 Still in a bear market 2:31 Debt coming due 5:56 A death by a thousand cuts 8:06 A slower rate of growth 9:40 Housing market 10:35 To what extent do home prices fall? 13:58 Economic outlook 15:00 Higher rates relative to inflation is a more healthy environment 17:00 The Fed’s reputation has been shattered 18:03 Powell doesn’t want to repeat the 1970s 19:00 Fed wants market to ‘sober up’ 20:44 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number 25:00 Earnings picture are a headwind for stocks 27:40 White Collar recession 30:24 China’s reopening 31:40 Chinese consumer has been unleashed 34:45 Why oil will go well north of $100 this year 36:30 Playing the China reopening 37:40 U.S. big tech’s best of their stock days are over 40:30 Every investor focused on macro has to keep an eye on BOJ 44:00 How to think about inflation 49:00 Be aware of your investing/economic surroundings 50:08 Boockvar’s marrying macro and micro 53:11 Time horizon is the key to successful investing
1/31/202356 minutes, 30 seconds
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#050 Cullen Roche On Macro Outlook And Housing Risks

Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, joins Julia La Roche on episode 50 for a wide-ranging discussion of the macro environment and Housing — the risk keeping him up at night. In this episode, Roche raises the point that when it comes to macro research, many economists argue that the U.S. economy is a housing economy, meaning when the housing market slows down a lot, it filters through everything else. “It’s really up in the air… Does this environment look more like a 2008-type of slowdown? Is it more like a 2002-ish type of long drawn-out slowdown that nothing really crashes, but things persistently adjust lower?” Roche said on the show. Roche is in more of the 2002 scenario camp, but he notes there’s still an outlier risk of a credit event lurking that’s more akin to a 2008-style event, but that’s a big outlier. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating and review. Email me at [email protected] with any future guest ideas or suggestions. I’d love to hear from you! 0:00 Intro 0:39 Slinging stocks and bonds after college 2:30 Coming full circle to low-cost ETFs 5:40 Understanding the details of what you’re buying 8:45 Big picture macro view 10:40 Process of digesting Fed policies during the pandemic 11:09 The big uncertainty — the housing market 13:38 Housing market is the backbone of everything the credit market is structured around 15:13 House prices boomed 40% during COVID 15:47 Outlier scenario that worries Cullen 17:00 Housing has become a speculative asset 18:45 Looking at the stock market as a multi-decade instrument 20:29 Is your house a great investment? 25:23 Will 2023 be the year of Disinflation? 30:30 Disinflation or deflation? 31:44 Can the Fed remain too aggressive? 38:50 Factor investing 42:20 Bonds 44:40 Importance of understanding time with asset allocation 47:40 Bitcoin as a 90-year instrument 52:00 Parting thoughts
1/26/202356 minutes, 10 seconds
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#049 You're Going To Be Working Until You're 85 Or 90 | Ric Edelman

Ric Edelman (@ricedelman), one of the most influential people in the financial planning and investment management profession, joins Julia La Roche on episode 49 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, markets, retirement, Bitcoin, and more. Edelman, ranked three times as the nation’s No. 1 Independent Financial Advisor by Barron’s, is also a best-selling author of a dozen books, including his newest, “The Truth About Crypto.” He’s also a top financial educator, host of The Truth About Your Future Podcast, and the founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP). 0:00 Intro  0:31 Macro view  1:30 Stock market is a leading indicator  2:40 Understanding the difference between the economy and the stock market  4:28 Separate the headlines from your financial planning goals  7:46 Technology is changing everything  9:44 Time to rethink the financial planning process  11:39 People are not financially prepared for retirement  13:22 Social Security  14:33 Rethinking retirement  17:27 Life-long learning 18:48 Higher education paradigm is completely shifting  21:23 Generation wealth transfer  23:19 A formula for how much you need to retire today  26:14 Thoughts on FIRE  29:18 Health of the population is a problem  31:50 No. 1 subject is crypto  33:50 Thoughts on crypto winter  35:40 Thoughts on SBF/FTX fiasco  39:12 Involved in crypto since 2012  45:03 Need for a financial advisor  50:52 Questions to ask an advisor  52:29 Bitcoin $150,000?  57:03 Stock market outlook?
1/24/20231 hour, 20 seconds
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#048 Carol Roth On How The Government And The Fed Created The Largest Wealth Transfer In History

Carol Roth @caroljsroth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche on episode 48 to discuss her last book “The War On Small Business: How The Government Used The Pandemic To Crush The Backbone of America.” Carol’s book highlights how the government's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic favored the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of small businesses. This has led to a consolidation of power and wealth, with small businesses struggling while the stock market reached new highs. According to Carol, this is not a new problem, but the pandemic exposed it. In "The War on Small Business,” Carol details the abuses of power inflicted on small businesses during the pandemic and argues that government is the problem, not the solution. The book also advocates for decentralization to help small businesses and individuals participate in wealth creation. In this episode, Carol discusses how capitalism in the U.S. is being replaced by cronyism, the Fed’s role in this epic wealth transfer, the nonsense surrounding ESG and the nefarious side of that movement, her biggest fear when the next pandemic arises, and more. 0:00 Intro 1:05 “Recovering” investment banker 3:04 Cronyism replacing capitalism in the markets 4:00 Didn’t have Fed tipping the scales and picking winners/losers 5:40 A focus on short-termism 6:15 ESG nonsense 7:23 Why write “The War On Business”? 9:30 The underreported story of the epic wealth transfer 10:40 The “Black Swan” was the government’s reaction to the pandemic 12:50 Partial lockdowns, not full lockdowns 15:00 “All in this together” got “completely bastardized” 16:00 Impact on small business owners like Shelly Luther 19:05 Carol’s “biggest concern” about future pandemics 20:40 Less trust in government, media 21:28 Covid amnesty? 24:30 Importance of small businesses in U.S. 26:38 Central planning is “America’s worst trade deal” 27:33 Capitalism is freedom and choice 30:00 Assessment of capitalism today 32:34 The Federal Reserve is a “failed experiment for the average American” 36:30 Ways to reform the Fed 38:50 The Fed’s actions got us here 41:48 The epic wealth transfer 44:38 Millennials, Gen-Z making more money, but don’t have as much wealth 47:05 Fed’s role in financial institutions buying up homes 47:33 Nefarious side of ESG 50:25 Worried about personal recessions 54:15 Parting thoughts
1/19/202358 minutes, 6 seconds
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#047 Joe Fahmy On Why Biotech Will Outperform The Broader Market In 2023

Joe Fahmy (@jfahmy), a portfolio manager at Zor Capital, LLC, a New York-based investment management firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 47 to share his 2023 market outlook. In this episode, Joe shares his 2023 outlook and why he thinks the biotech sector is poised to outperform the S&P. He also reflects back on lessons gleaned from the challenging environment in 2022. Joe explains why having a big-picture macro view is important, but there’s no need to obsess over it. He also shares why “don’t fight the Fed” has resonated with this trading and investment style in recent years and how folks should think about what that phrase really means. Joe has nearly 25 years of trading experience, during which he developed his investment strategy. His extensive knowledge of technical analysis, market forecasting, and risk management has landed him appearances on Wall Street Week, CNBC, Fox Business, ABC News, and CNN Money. He is a regular contributor to Yahoo Finance. 0:00 2023 market outlook 1:00 Don’t fight the Fed 1:34 Don’t fight the Fed works both ways 2:15 A new uptrend in the market this year? 2:40 What the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” really means 3:30 Understanding the big picture 4:20 Does the macro matter more than ever? 5:30 Important not to be obsessive over macro 6:29 Opportunities in 2023 7:55 Why biotech could outperform the S&P 9:53 Energy thesis 11:13 A return stock picking? 14:00 Where are we headed in the markets? 16:00 The big institutions control the markets. Period. 17:45 How to watch what the biggest players are doing in the market 19:33 A shift in the sentiment? 22:00 Lessons from 2022 25:44 Book recommendations for trading 28:52 What’s Joe watching in 2023? 31:23 When will we see the pause? 32:14 How much does the economic picture matter? 35:00 Parting thoughts
1/17/202338 minutes, 42 seconds
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#046 Whitney Tilson On Avoiding The 5 Calamities That Can Ruin You

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, now the founder and CEO of newsletter publisher Empire Financial Research, joins Julia La Roche on episode 46 to share some worldly wisdom and his views on the market. The bulk of this conversation focuses on life lessons from his new book “The Art Of Playing Defense: How To Get Ahead By Not Falling Behind.” Whitney outlines five calamities to avoid, including: Loss of reputation and/or wealth Loneliness and/or suffering a permanently impaired relationship with a loved one A bad marriage, often ending in divorce Addiction and abuse The death, serious injury, or illness of yourself or a loved one In this episode, Whitney, 56, revisits his childhood, including growing up in Africa with his educator parents. He also shares whether or not he ate the marshmallow in the famed Stanford marshmallow experiment, a psychological study that examined delayed gratification among young children. He recounts how he met his wife Susan (thanks to his friend Bill Ackman!) and his journey from being the lowest-paid Harvard Business School graduate in his class working for a non-profit to the world of hedge funds (also thanks to Bill Ackman). Throughout the conversation, there are plenty of lessons gleaned over the years from being a long-time student and follower of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Whitney also discusses value investing in the current environment and why he’s “reasonably bullish” and estimates the market could rise 15 to 20% this year. 0:00 The Marshmallow Experiment 4:30 Whitney likely didn’t eat the marshmallow 5:10 Growing up in Tanzania 7:00 Emphasis on education 9:15 Met wife after crashing party with Bill Ackman 10:15 Interest in investing 12:20 Amassed $10K, called up Bill Ackman 13:58 Early days of the internet stocks 14:32 Warren Buffett 15:50 A ‘clueless fool’ turning $20,000 into $120,000 in AOL 17:00 Absolutely no business starting a hedge fund 19:20 Dale Carnegie’s “How To Win Friends And Influence People” 21:18 Lessons for Tilson’s daughters 23:23 Raising athletic daughters 24:30 Price of Privilege 27:00 Sports and self-confidence with teenage daughters 36:00 The most important decision is who you marry 37:00 ‘Fishing in the right ponds’ 39:00 Other important relationships 41:30 Epidemic of loneliness 44:00 Repairing and building relationships 46:10 Scott Galloway 49:00 Avoiding calamities 51:00 Loneliness or ruptured relationships as a calamity 52:48 The 5 calamities 53:30 How not to screw up your marriage 1:05:00 Risk taking and risk management 1:15:08 Reasonably bullish on the markets 1:19:57 Best guest is the market is up 15-20% 1:20:20 Value investing back in favor? 1:22:19 Berkshire Hathaway, Meta (Facebook), Netflix, Amazon, PayPal 1:23:40 Why the average person shouldn’t be picking stocks 1:30:00 Achieving long-term wealth
1/13/20231 hour, 34 minutes, 4 seconds
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#045 Caleb Franzen: The Fed Is Being Challenged By Ongoing Labor Market Dynamics

Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen), senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 45 to discuss macro, markets, Bitcoin, and more. A big theme in the conversation centers around the labor market and the Fed. Franzen discusses the Federal Reserve's prioritizing of three methods for reducing demand to bring down inflation, including creating an inverse wealth effect, increasing the cost of capital, and softening the labor market. The Fed suppressed demand in two of its three approaches, but the dynamics in the labor market are keeping demand elevated and offsetting these effects. That's why the Fed focuses on the labor market softening this year. As Franzen puts it, the labor market is "the last box that they're really looking to check to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable path lower." Franzen makes the case that the Fed balancing the scales of its dual mandate — maximum employment and price stability — will be a thin line for the Fed to walk in 2023, with the labor market being historically tight (full/max employment) and inflation at historically elevated (price instability). 0:00 Macro view 1:05 Historic tightening cycle 2:04 Not a rosy picture for risk assets 3:25 Why the Fed will continue to raise after inversion 5:30 Inflation likely to moderate lower 7:16 A soft landing still on the table? 8:54 3 dynamics that stood out in the NFP data 11:18 The Fed can’t be too happy right now 12:30 Market outlook 16:25 Became macro obsessed in college 20:53 Enthusiasm capitulation then price capitulation 29:08 Bitcoin 30:00 Speculating on bitcoin is dead 36:00 Content diet
1/10/202342 minutes, 40 seconds
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#044 Standing Up to the Woke Mob and Walking Away From $1 Million: Jennifer Sey's Story

Jennifer Sey (@jennifersey) said she was on track to be the first female CEO of Levi Strauss & Co. until she resigned after over two decades at the jeans maker after facing pressure to stay quiet about her opposition to San Francisco’s public school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Throughout the pandemic, Sey was vocal about the policies impacting children, including the closure of schools and playgrounds, the masking of toddlers, learning loss, the increased educational gap, and the mental health crisis among teens that resulted from these closures. In February 2022, Sey, then-Brand President of Levi Strauss & Co., resigned and published an op-ed in Bari Weiss’s Common Sense (now The Free Press) where she revealed that she was offered $1 million in severance if she signed a non-disclosure agreement. She chose to forfeit the money and tell her story in the new book, “Levi’s Unbuttoned: The Woke Mob Took My Job But Gave Me My Voice.”  In this episode, Sey discusses her time at Levis, joining as a marketing assistant in 1999, rising to Chief Marketing Officer, a role she held for several years, and her promotion to Global Brand President in October 2020. In January 2022, she was asked to resign because of her social media posts that were critical of COVID mandates.  Topics featured in the episode include woke capitalism infiltrating corporate America, cancel culture, policy failures during the pandemic, free speech, the political divide, why there shouldn’t be pandemic amnesty, and more.  Sey, the 1986 USA Gymnastics National Champion and a 7-time member of the U.S. Women’s National Team, also revisited her time as an elite gymnast and why she walked away from the sport ahead of the 1988 Olympics. She is the author of the book “Chalked Up,” which detailed the coaching cruelty in the sport, and the producer of the Emmy award-winning documentary “Athlete A.”  0:00 Intro  1:06 An ‘unusual childhood’ as an elite gymnast  2:00 Gymnastics rife with abuse  3:30 Too broken to continue  5:00 Said the thing you’re not supposed to say out loud  6:23 Thoughts on quitting   9:26 Imposter syndrome  12:21 Early career after Stanford  15:50 Overcoming the doubters  18:38 CMO is a very slippery seat  20:00 Live In Levi’s campaign  22:22 No raise, no equity 26:05 No stock payout at the IPO  26:41 ‘Use your voice’  28:00 Speaking out during COVID  30:56 The ‘controversial’ tweets  32:12 An ‘unacceptable’ ‘problematic’ view 33:58 The Fox News appearance  35:00 The viral Twitter thread 35:36 The email before the ‘apology tour’  37:29 A dark time, treated as a ‘toxic employee’  39:00 ‘It’s really cult-like’  39:44 Promoted to brand president in October 2020  40:53 Told she was a candidate for CEO   41:28 Submitted to a background check  43:00 Offered $1M severance to walk away quietly  45:30 Vaccine mandate  46:30 Wrote book to encourage folks to speak up 47:19 Why are people quiet?  48:50 Views on political binary 51:50 A return to corporate America?  53:25 Should there be COVID amnesty?  56:29 Lessons for children 
1/5/202359 minutes, 30 seconds
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#043 Jon Hilsenrath On Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen And Navigating An Era Of Upheaval

Jon Hilsenrath of The Wall Street Journal joins Julia La Roche on episode 43 to discuss his new book, "Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval."  In this episode, Hilsenrath discusses his decision to write a book about Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her husband, Nobel laureate economist George Akerlof, in the form of a love story. He highlights the couple's central role in economic debates over the years. He aims to humanize top figures in economics while also incorporating historical lessons and personal lessons about work, family, and more. He also touches on the imperfect nature of capitalism and democracy, the importance of rebuilding trust in institutions, the state of journalism, and his own experiences as the son of a war refugee. He also shares how he got a C in Economics 101 at Duke (Full disclosure: Julia also got a C in Econ 101 at UNC).  Hilsenrath is a senior writer for The Wall Street Journal, where he has written about economics and finance since 1997. He has worked as a writer and editor in Hong Kong, New York and Washington, D.C. Many of his stories have focused on causes and consequences of economic and financial crises. He was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 2014 for his coverage of the Federal Reserve; part of a WSJ team that was a Pulitzer finalist in 2009 for coverage of the financial crisis; and contributed on-the-ground reporting to the WSJ’s 9/11 coverage which won a Pulitzer in 2002. He graduated from Duke University in 1989 and was a Knight-Bagehot Fellow and M.B.A. graduate from Columbia Business School in 1996. 0:00 Intro 0:45 A shower idea 2:00 A love story 3:17 4 lessons for breaking glass ceilings 7:35 What did Yellen get right? What did Yellen get wrong? 10:00 Recency bias in economics profession 12:28 Larry Summers 15:00 Late to the Biden Administration 17:00 She’ll be the Treasury Secretary for a little longer 17:55 Yellen, Summers’ approach to an airport 20:30 Human behavior in economics, markets 22:40 Human screw up on both sides of the equation 24:30 Hilsenrath’s takeaways 27:33 Trust is a mess 30:26 Examining issues through Yellen’s story 31:00 Rebuilding, restoring trust 34:58 Hilsenrath’s family story 38:10 Are you proud to be a journalist? 41:59 Jon and Julia both got a C in Econ 101 45:21 Explaining economics through the book, “Yellen” 46:17 Thoughts on “Fed Whisperer” nickname 52:22 Parting thoughts
12/29/202255 minutes, 34 seconds
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#042 MEGATHREATS: 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini's Scariest Prediction

Dr. Nouriel Roubini (@nouriel), Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, joins Julia La Roche on episode 42 to discuss his newest book, MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them. Roubini, known as "Dr. Doom" due to his tendency to make pessimistic predictions, warned of the housing crisis and impending recession, but it was too late. Roubini is now making another prediction that is even more alarming and should not be overlooked. The world is facing a multitude of interconnected threats, referred to as Megathreats, that have the potential to cause widespread disaster. According to Roubini, these Megathreats are all connected and threaten not only our jobs, income, savings, and wealth but also our health, the planet's health, and even our species' survival. These Megathreats include the worst debt crisis ever seen, excessive money printing by governments, blocked borders for workers and goods, the growing competition between China and the US, and the effects of climate change on heavily populated cities. Roubini says we're "sleepwalking into disaster," and this book is a "wake-up call." Time is of the essence in addressing these issues and attempting to prevent their adverse outcomes. Roubini is also the Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, and Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com. He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com. 0:00 Roubini's new book 2:58 Connecting the dots of 10 Megathreats 4:00 World faces the biggest test since WWII 5:50 Mother of all debt crises 11:00 A perfect storm 18:00 Can we go back to 2% inflation without a hard landing? 19:30 Debate is no longer a soft or hard landing 20:42 Not going to be a short and shallow recession 23:42 Factors that could lead to a hard landing 24:00 Central banks are going to blink 24:45 Demographic time bomb 28:50 Intergenerational conflict between young and old 31:40 AI as a megathreat 35:14 AI will usher in a massive increase in income and wealth inequality 36:00 The trouble with UBI 39:00 Threat to our species 41:00 ChatGPT 41:50 Roubini's advice to young people 46:27 Public enemy No. 1 of crypto since 2017 49:40 Crypto is 'the biggest financial fraud in human history' 51:58 Megathreat of financial instability 54:40 US dollar status as the global reserve currency 56:00 Divided world 58:00 De-dollarization, rise in gold 1:00:31 Do you want to own gold right now? 1:03:00 What to own in this scenario? 1:06:38 Global pandemics 1:11:13 Things Roubini never used to worry about 1:13:05 World looks more like the period between 1914 in 194 1:15:20 Sleepwalking into disaster 1:19:00 How do we survive the Megathreats? 1:21:20 Technology is the solution 1:23:00 Parting thoughts
12/27/20221 hour, 26 minutes, 52 seconds
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#041 Jim Bianco: Recession Has Become The New Bull Story On Wall Street

Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch), founder and president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 41.  In this episode, Bianco makes the case that we’ve entered a different market era from 2009 to 2021 and why he doesn’t expect the Fed to cut rates or pivot anytime soon. He also breakdowns this paradox where for the first time most Wall Street strategists expect a decline in the stock market in 2023, which wasn't the case during the Great Recession or after 9/11.  He explains that a recession has become their bull story where the Fed will cut rates and the market will rise. Bianco also outlines how we’ve entered a post-pandemic economy marking the end of an era of cheap goods, labor, and energy. As such, he makes a case for why inflation won’t return to 2%.  Bianco notes that the market going forward will turn into a stock picker’s market versus buying indexes and ETFs and relying on the Fed put. He also outlines opportunities in fixed income, what he’s watching for in equities, and his thoughts on gold. Finally, Bianco weighs in on the FTX fiasco and explains why he’s still a big fan of cryptocurrencies and what’s needed for the space.  0:00 Macro view 0:31 2023 starts off with a divergence 1:10 A different era of persistent inflation 2:14 Market is a liquidity junkie 3:36 Paradox of wanting a recession 5:01 A recession is the bull story 5:35 Bianco’s view on a recession 7:05 What the Fed is hoping for 10:35 Inflation 12:41 Why we won’t get back to 2% 13:11 Watch what the MTA is doing with subway service 14:40 Giant shift in workforce attitude 15:42 China is a disaster right now 18:02 Era of cheap goods, labor, and energy is over 20:30 The path 2% requires killing the economy 23:00 Energy 27:48 What folks are missing on the China reopening story 33:10 Bank of Japan expands trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds 35:58 Japan has an inflation problem 37:00 There’s a developed world inflation problem 38:22 More implications from the BOJ’s surprise move 40:29 It’s now a stock picker’s market 42:26 George Noble 43:33 Fixed income is becoming interesting 45:35 Equities 47:00 More on fixed income 50:45 Thoughts on gold 52:20 GLD 58:09 Thoughts on crypto in the wake of FTX/SBF 1:01:01 Crypto turned into a casino 1:02:48 Banking system is inherently unstable 1:05:37 Impacts of FTX on the crypto industry 1:11:40 Book recommendation
12/22/20221 hour, 15 minutes, 59 seconds
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#040 Tom Thornton On Why We Might See True Capitulation In The Markets In 2023

Tom Thornton (@TommyThornton), founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, has had an incredible year amid market turbulence. The former portfolio manager, senior trader, and technical analyst has delivered returns of 52% so far in 2022. In this episode, Tom, who focuses on sentiment indicators, explains why markets are nervous and that we haven’t seen a true market capitulation yet. He predicts that in 2023 we might see capitulation as the retail investor starts to give up. Elsewhere, Tom weighs in on his investment process and approach. He also shares his thoughts on the Fed’s rate hikes and why he doesn’t expect any rate cuts next year. He also details his short on Tesla.  Tom has written a daily market note for a select group of hedge fund managers for years and now has offered it for all investors with Hedge Fund Telemetry, which features market sentiment, macro daily insights utilizing DeMark Indicators, sector rotations, and long and short trade ideas with professional commentary and more. 0:00 Approach to markets 4:47 Sizing positions 11:13 Time horizons 13:12 The market is nervous 16:50 Capitulation 18:26 No safe place to hide 22:50 The Fed 27:27 Market’s Fed dependency 38:48 Elon Musk and Tesla 48:08 Hedge Fund Telemetry
12/20/202254 minutes, 18 seconds
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#039 Stephanie Link On The Fed, Markets, And Working With Jim Cramer

Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist at Hightower Advisors and CNBC contributor, Joins Julia La Roche on episode 39 to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate hike, her economic and market outlook for 2023, her investment process, what makes a great CEO, working with Jim Cramer, and more. Stephanie Link joined Hightower in June 2020 as Chief Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Hightower. Before joining Hightower, Ms. Link was the Senior Managing Director and Head of Global Equities Research at Nuveen. She also served as Chief Investment Officer at TheStreet, Co-Portfolio Manager of Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, and Managing Director of Institutional Sales and Director of Research at Prudential Equity Group. With over 27 years of experience managing money, Ms. Link’s insights are frequently sought after for industry events and by the media, and is a CNBC contributor for several shows, including The Halftime Report, Closing Bell, and Squawk Box. 0:00 Intro 0:00 Reaction to the Fed rate hike 2:33 Should be ratcheting down the hawkishness 3:33 Outlook on rate hikes 4:30 Theory on market reaction to Fed 5:30 Pivot off the table in Q1 7:08 Inflation 9:06 Fed’s 2% inflation target 10:06 Big picture view of the economy 14:45 Investment approach 19:12 Opportunities 23:12 Picking the No. 1 and 2 players 25:00 Betting against consumer is not a great thing 27:12 Evaluating management teams, CEOs 30:22 What makes a great leader? 34:39 Jim Cramer 39:57 Buying when a stock is down 42:00 Pursuing a career in finance/investing 45:00 CNBC 47:40 Sports team 49:20 Routine 51:20 Parting thoughts
12/15/202254 minutes, 11 seconds
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#038 ‘Art & Equity’ With Blythe Masters, Brett Redfearn, Elizabeth Von Habsburg, and Carlos Domingo

Blythe Masters, founding partner at Motive Partners; Brett Redfearn, founder of Panorama Financial Markets Advisory; Liz Von Habsburg, managing director at Winston Art Group; and Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize, join Julia La Roche on episode 38. This episode is a recording of a panel from Art Basel hosted by Securitize called “Art & Equity: Expanding Access to High-Quality Assets from Fine Art to Private Equity.” 0:00 Intros 6:27 Defining tokenization, the blockchain 8:51 Use cases for tokenization 10:14 How blockchain, crypto has disappointed many 13:00 Looking at crypto/blockchain through First Principles 15:00 Real-world use cases 16:20 Opportunity to democratize capital markets with blockchain 19:00 Expanding access to art and PE 22:08 Thoughts on FTX fiasco 25:40 Crypto industry’s reaction 28:08 Evolution in art investing through technology 29:20 Short-term pain, long-term gain 30:15 Ownership is an ‘enormous prize’ for blockchain technology 34:00 You can’t break everything 35:28 Basic fundamental problems that could benefit from digitization 37:15 Don’t underestimate what can be done with the existing regulatory framework
12/13/202239 minutes, 47 seconds
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#037 Axel Merk On The Fed's Sledgehammer Approach To The Economy

Macro expert Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, joins Julia La Roche on episode 37 to discuss monetary policy, the economy, gold, and more. In this episode, Merk details the Federal Reserve's sledgehammer approach to monetary policy and why the central bank will likely push the economy into recession. He also shared his thesis on stagflation.  Merk outlined why next year's market might be "more nuanced." He also shared his outlook on gold, the U.S. dollar, and more.  Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Macro view 1:45 Sledgehammer approach 2:06 A more nuanced market in 2023 2:49 Central banks trying to fix their mistakes 5:14 Extremely counterproductive policies 6:18 Rates should be coming down 7:27 Fed is basically a debating club 8:11 The Fed needs a new framework 10:38 Why The Fed might pause hikes at the May meeting 13:00 Inflation outlook 16:40 Social implications of policy 19:24 Stagflation thesis 23:00 Investing in gold 25:30 3 types of gold investors 26:56 Gold is the purest indicator of monetary policy 30:24 U.S. Dollar outlook 32:48 What does a more nuanced market look like? 35:40 Merk’s framework 40:20 Why invest in gold miners 45:00 Merk’s journey in the financial markets 49:40 Building and growing a business 51:40 Pilot 53:13 Parting thoughts
12/8/202255 minutes, 52 seconds
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#036 Jim Rickards: We're Looking At A Global Recession

Jim Rickards (@jamesgrickards) returns to the Julia La Roche Show for episode 36 to discuss his new book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. In this episode, Rickards shares his macro view and why we may be headed for a global recession. He also provides a deep dive into supply chains, describing when and how they broke down and why they won't return to the way they were before 2019. He also shares the emergence of what he calls "supply chain 2.0," which he predicts will consist of a college of nations. Elsewhere, Rickards discusses his take on inflation and why deflation is coming faster than you might think. Finally, he shares his best asset allocation strategies for these uncertain times. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. 0:00 Jim's new book "Sold Out" 0:54 View of the global macroeconomy 1:37 The supply chain is the economy 3:33 What do China, the war in Ukraine, and climate change have to do with supply chains? 6:58 China's Zero-Covid policy and its possible consequences 12:11 We're looking at a global recession, and that's rare 13:24 The future supply chain will look very different 14:35 Why the supply chains broke down and won't go back to the way they were 20:00 Supply Chain 1.0 23:42 What happened when Trump put tariffs on soybeans 30:24 National security and geopolitics 33:48 A college of nations 39:00 Peak China  42:00 Inflation 47:05 Why the Fed can't do anything about the supply side of the equation 49:49 Disinflation and deflation 51:12 Severe recession 54:34 How long would it take for the Fed to cut rates? 1:01:08 Central bankers' worst nightmare 1:05:10 What would a deflationary scenario mean for the economy?
12/6/20221 hour, 13 minutes, 53 seconds
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#035 Envestnet Co-CIO Dana D’Auria On Personalizing Portfolios

Dana D’Auria, co-CIO of Envestnet, joins Julia La Roche on episode 35.  D’Auria, an English major, started her career as a journalist on the business beat and transitioned into finance after earning an MBA. A background in writing has been instrumental in the investment world, especially in explaining complex topics.  She spent 14 years at Symmetry Partners, serving as director of research and managing director and portfolio manager before joining Envestnet. The fin-tech b2b company provides technology and tools for financial advisors to offer hyper-personalized experiences for clients’ portfolios.  Elsewhere, D’Auria shared her macroeconomic outlook, what’s top of mind amongst investors and clients, and why value investing is attractive in a rising rate environment.  0:00 Dana’s journey from business journalism to working in finance 2:41 Gaps in the education system as it relates to finance 5:06 Envestnet, explained 8:20 Leveraging insights for client’s portfolios 10:37 How the advent of tech and access to data changes the money management 13:00 Humans + machines 16:28 Rough ride in markets 19:08 Future of the traditional 60/40 portfolio 21:53 Types of bear markets 24:11 What kinds of conversations with clients? 29:27 Value investing 31:42 Market outlook 36:39 Personalizing a portfolio
12/1/202242 minutes, 33 seconds
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#034 Carson Block On Latest Shorts And The 'Mass Investing Delusion' Of ESG

Carson Block, the activist short seller, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, and host of Zer0es TV and the Zero F**ks Given podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 34. Block rose to prominence over a decade ago by exposing Chinese companies listed in the U.S. that were frauds. He’s best known for his 2011 takedown of Sino-Forest, which overstated its timber holdings and ended up filing for bankruptcy, causing big-name investors to lose hundreds of millions. Block is often referred to as an activist short seller because he conducts in-depth research, takes a position, and publicly releases a report explaining his thesis. In the episode, he explained why he prefers the title “investor journalist.”  In the episode, Block details his two latest short targets — DLocal, a payments company in Uruguay, and Sunrun, a solar panel company. He also shares why ESG is the 2nd "mass investing delusion" he's witnessed. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Origin story as an activist short-selling 1:45 We were getting lied to all the time 2:35 Law School  3:29 Shorting Chinese stocks 5:45 Conflicts of interest, laziness, and ineptitude in the capital markets 6:55 The Sino-Forest short 9:55 Grifting in the ESG space 13:20 The Sunrun short thesis 19:50 Impact of rising rates 21:18 DLocal short thesis 26:28 DLocal’s response 29:40 Block’s process for building a short thesis 35:05 “Investor Journalist” 38:20 Why short selling exists 42:45 How short selling is perceived 45:02 The “Tick The Box Apocalypse”
11/29/202247 minutes, 16 seconds
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#033 Jan Van Eck On Why Now Is The Time To Buy Bonds

Jan Van Eck (@janvaneck3), CEO of Van Eck Funds, one of the world’s largest sponsors of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), joins Julia La Roche on episode 33 to discuss the next big investment opportunity in fixed income.  During the conversation, Jan explains why we’re entering a period where bonds will outperform equities. That’s why he thinks investors must be majority weighted in fixed income. He also points out that too many investors are too focused on the next equity rally since they’re accustomed to the Fed put.  The conversation also touched upon Bitcoin and digital assets amid the FTX fiasco. Jan noted that Bitcoin had demonstrated an ability to withstand a lot of tests. He also shared his thesis on the digital asset and why it’s a store of value against paper money.  Founded in 1955, VanEck was one the first U.S. asset managers to offer investors access to international markets, setting the tone for identifying asset classes and trends – including gold investing in 1968, emerging markets in 1993, and exchange-traded funds in 2006, and digital assets in 2017. VanEck manages approximately $70 billion in assets, including mutual funds, ETFs and institutional accounts. 0:00 Intro 0:33 Macro view 1:55 2022 can be summarized in one sentence 2:43 Fixed income can and should be a bigger part of a portfolio 3:02 Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio 4:50 Where in the fixed income universe? 7:22 Views on the economy 9:16 Outlook for equities 10:00 Inflation may be more persistent than people think 12:30 Is the 2% target unrealistic 13:12 Labor market 14:12 Outlook for commodities 16:35 Don’t over chase equities 19:00 Why fixed income can be an under-appreciated part of a portfolio 20:50 Using history to identify all potential outcomes 23:23 Powell will make sure he slays inflation 26:11 FTX one of the last shoes to drop in the deleveraging of crypto 27:47 Knock-on effects from FTX 29:00 The good news for investors in crypto 30:00 Journey into digital assets, Bitcoin 31:24 Bitcoin Futures ETFs 32:10 Spot EFT 35:00 Thesis on Bitcoin 38:26 Biggest risks 41:00 3 big drivers on financial markets 43:00 Psychology of investing
11/22/202247 minutes, 42 seconds
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#032 Scott Galloway: It's Never Been Easier To Become A Billionaire, But It’s Never Been Harder To Become A Millionaire

Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, and best-selling author of multiple books, including Adrift: America In 100 Charts, joins Julia La Roche on episode 32. In this episode, Julia and Scott delve into the “hunger games, winner takes most” economy that’s emerged, where it’s never been easier to become a billionaire in America and never been harder to become a millionaire. According to Scott, a millennial born in 1984, who’d be 37, only has a 50% chance of doing better economically than their parents. Scott highlights the erosion of the middle class in the U.S. and what it means for the country's social fabric. Scott pointed out how broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort. He also detailed how the rise of dating apps — an ecosystem that would have greater inequality than Venezuela — has hindered relationship formation. Elsewhere, Scott broke down how universities and colleges have become luxury brands. As Scott put it, this rejectionist luxury positioning at universities is the “most un-American thing.” He argued that we could easily expand freshman seats. Scott also shared his thoughts on Twitter and its new owner Elon Musk, which he describes as a “train wreck you can’t look away from.” He also shared his take on TikTok and his issue with its ownership. 0:00 Intro 0:43 Never been easier to be a billionaire in America 1:48 More business school students will be dependent on their parents 2:40 Millennials have it worse off than their parents 4:50 Consequences of an eroding middle class 6:30 Age inequality 8:30 What Social Security should look like now 11:00 The greediest generation in the world 12:10 Creating anger and volatility among younger people 15:00 Broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort 17:30 Need a leveling up for young males 20:45 Solution is viable young men 22:08 Need to double number of freshman seats at universities 24:00 Leveling up young men is not zero-sum or misogynistic 27:23 How dating apps make it difficult to find a partner 30:00 Dating app economy would have greater inequality than Venezuela 32:28 Need to invest in third spaces 34:13 Universities have become luxury brands 38:22 Rejectionist luxury universities are un-American 40:18 Student debt forgiveness was terrible 46:02 UNC is a gift, literally like a pharmaceutical 48:39 Thoughts on Twitter/ Elon Musk 54:30 Thoughts on the power of TikTok
11/17/20221 hour, 28 seconds
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#031 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Recession, Housing, And Killing The Fed Put

Danielle DiMartino Booth, the CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 31.  DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how markets intelligence is conceived and delivered with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers, but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans to analyze the trends and provide critical analysis on what is driving the markets – both in the United States and globally. Since inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. (Also, here are the links to Danielle's 2007 papers at the Dallas Fed, The Rise And Fall Of Subprime Mortgages: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2007/el0711.pdf, and From Complacency To Crisis: Financial Risk Taking in  the early 21st Century https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2007/el0712.pdf) 0:00 Intro 0:42 At a critical juncture 1:38 We’re in a global recession right now 2:50 A much different construct in this layoff cycle 4:17 A white-collar recession 5:45 How a white-collar wave of layoffs impacts the economy 6:37 Quiet quitting is un-American 8:32 Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? 10:40 Few are accustomed to the type of Fed we have now 12:05 Maybe Jay Powell wants to kill the Fed put 15:20 Jay Powell wants to establish a better legacy 16:47 Not enough at the Fed has changed 18:12 If the Fed succeeds, Main Street will be the real winner 22:22 There will be air come out of this housing bubble 25:08 Investors exacerbating this housing cycle 27:13 Fed policies fed speculation in housing 28:18 The risk lives in the credit market 30:50 Watching continuous jobless claims 32:00 Are we set up for an even worse recession? 33:00 Biggest risk 35:19 Millennials, Gen Z will have to deal with a different reality 37:17 Time for Millennials to rise
11/16/202240 minutes, 31 seconds
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#030 Vitaliy Katsenelson On The 'Dot-Com Bubble 2.0' Ushering In 'A Value Investor's Paradise'

Vitaliy Katsenelson, the CEO at IMA, a value investing firm in Denver, joins Julia on episode 30 to discuss his newest book, Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life, which is his first non-investing book. Vitaliy shares his love of writing, family, work, music, and stoic philosophy in the book. In this episode, Vitaliy details his backstory of growing up in Soviet Russia and coming to America. He also shares his impressions of capitalism and how investing was “love at first sight.” For Vitality, writing is the most important thing that’s transformed his life and career, and he spends 700 hours each year writing. Vitaliy views Stoicism as an operating system for life. He wishes he had encountered Stoicism when his mother died of brain cancer when he was 11, and that tragedy helped bring him closer to his father. Elsewhere, Vitaliy shares his views of the markets and why high-interest rates are making value investing great again. He dives into his thesis of a Dot-com Bubble 2.0, how tech stocks became overvalued thanks to abundant capital, and how eventually, that sector will be a “value investor’s paradise.” He also shared his economic outlook and house the housing market is worse than you think. 0:00 Intro 0:42 Born in Russia, made in America 2:36 First impressions of capitalism 4:31 First taste of Pepsi 8:01 Finance was ‘love at first sight’ 12:28 Writing journey 16:30 700 hours per year writing 19:08 Navigating a painful period through writing 22:50 Losing mother to brain cancer at age 11 25:00 Stoicism as an operating system for life 27:00 Stoicism and investing 30:12 High interest rates make value investing great again 32:33 How low rates fueled tech stocks 35:36 Thoughts on tech layoffs 36:46 Quiet quitting ends with loud firing 39:00 Dot-com bubble 2.0 44:37 Tech stocks will become a value investor’s paradise 46:00 We’re likely going to have a recession 46:55 Housing market is worse than you think 51:00 Where it gets worse for homeowners 52:05 A value investor’s framework during a recession 53:37 America became more tribal 55:40 Student loan debt forgiveness is a slippery slope 1:02:00 A moral hazard 1:03:00 Final thoughts
11/10/20221 hour, 5 minutes, 42 seconds
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#029 Steve Case On Peak Silicon Valley And The Rise Of The Rest

Billionaire investor and tech entrepreneur Steve Case, the co-founder of AOL and now the CEO and Revolution, joins Julia La Roche on episode 29 to discuss his newest book, "The Rise Of The Rest: How Entrepreneurs in Surprising Places are Building the New American Dream." In 2014, Case launched Revolution's "Rise of the Rest," an initiative to accelerate the growth of startups based outside of Silicon Valley. Rise of the Rest is based on a simple idea: talent is equally distributed, but opportunity is not. Historically, 75% of venture capital money has flown to three states — California, New York, and Massachusetts, resulting in a "brain drain," where people who grew up in Middle America move to Silicon Valley for opportunities. Since 2014, Case and the Revolution team have traveled more than 11,000 miles to 43 cities on the Rise of the Rest bus to visit entrepreneurial ecosystems and highlight great companies and entrepreneurs. On each tour, they hit five cities in five days, meeting with startups and elected officials. Rise of the Rest hosts a pitch competition and invests $100,000 in a local startup. As a result of our tours, Revolution launched two $150 million Rise of the Rest Seed Funds to invest in seed stage companies between the coasts. Rise of The Rest has attracted big-name backers, including John Doerr, Jim Breyer, Henry Kravis, David Rubenstein, Eric Schmidt, Tory Burch, Jeff Bezos, Ray Dalio, Howard Schultz, and many more. 0:00 Intro 0:35 Traveling the U.S. by bus 2:00 American cities on the rise 3:25 Top-tier returns outside of Silicon Valley 8:35 75% of venture capital goes to 3 states 11:46 Peak Silicon Valley? 15:10 The Third Wave of the Internet 17:30 Something is brewing out there 19:30 Dealing with the skepticism 21:28 200 investments in 100 cities 23:05 New venture firms launched outside CA, NY, MA 24:20 Evaluating entrepreneurs 26:30 Startups fuel job growth 29:15 Seeing America by road 30:22 Why is America divided? 33:50 Slowing the brain drain 36:15 The boomerang effect 39:09 America’s success is not guaranteed 41:45 Need for immigration reform 43:11 Early days of the internet 47:47 Director of New Pizza Development 49:24 Advice for the next-gen entrepreneur
11/8/202253 minutes, 20 seconds
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#028 Dr. Nomi Prins On How The Fed Created A ‘Permanent Distortion’

Dr. Nomi Prins, economist and author of the new book “Permanent Distortion: How The Financial Markets Abandoned The Real Economy Forever,” joins Julia on episode 28. Dr. Prins is an international economist, investigative journalist, geopolitical financial expert, and outspoken advocate for economic reform. She was a member of Senator Bernie Sanders’ panel of top economic experts advising on Fed reform. Dr. Prins’ new book exposes the ever-growing divide between the financial markets and the real economy and the unprecedented crises it has caused. This conversation explores how we got to a permanent distortion and why the Fed and its policies are at the epicenter.  0:00 Intro 0:43 Goldman Sachs MD to investigative journalist 3:05 What is the Permanent Distortion 5:00 The Fed is at the epicenter 8:55 The Fed is pretending to be an inflation hero 13:02 One big convenient lie 14:55 Relationship between the Fed and Wall Street 18:00 Will the Fed ever be reformed? 21:06 Unelected officials control the money 22:33 Credibility of the Fed 24:08 From a great distortion to a permanent distortion 27:44 Inflation likely to remain higher than Fed’s 2% target 32:02 Fed could’ve mitigated the home/rent part of inflation 35:11 What would Dr. Prins ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell? 36:40 Dr. Prins' speeches before central bankers 40:10 Why central banks globally act in lockstep 41:49 Meme stock mania a symptom of Fed policies 44:20 The evolution of Bitcoin 47:33 Solutions to address the permanent distortion 50:40 5 economic sectors emerging 52:20 What happens if nothing changes? 54:00 Final thoughts
11/3/202256 minutes, 2 seconds
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#027 Rick Rule: The Damage Will Be Severe But Survivable

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and board member of startup bank Battle Financial, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on natural resources.  Rule, who has more than 49 years of investing experience, looks at the macro picture from the lens of a credit analyst. He’s long-term optimistic but short-term pessimistic, thanks mainly to the excesses of artificially low interest rates, artificially induced liquidity, and systematic overregulation. Rule expects there will be 3 or 4 “very hard years not too far in the future,” and it will be “severe but survivable.” He added that he’s investing aggressively.  During the conversation, Rule shared his view on energy, the diesel shortage in the U.S., and his thesis on investing in uranium. He detailed some of the fictional narratives about energy, including why the narrative that we’re going to replace fossil fuels is a joke. Elsewhere, Rule outlined why one should invest in gold, which he characterizes as an insurance policy. He also shared why he's speculating on silver.  0:00 Intro  0:31 ‘Failing’ retirement  2:46 Macro view as a credit analyst  5:00 A reckoning from rising rates 6:25 War on savers 8:58 Young people are becoming aware at a great rate  10:15 Long-term demographic trends 13:03 Idiocy of energy policies  15:27 People are waking up to the need for fossil fuels today 17:30 Diesel fuel shortages in the U.S.  21:31 It’s a joke that we’re going to replace fossil fuels 24:44 Investment thesis for uranium  28:15 Triumph of reality over narrative 32:55 Ways to invest in uranium 34:30 Biggest risks of investing in uranium 34:45 Outlook on gold 40:00 Gold as a life insurance policy  41:45 Why buy a 10-Year Treasury?  43:30 Will the Fed stop inflation? 44:45 Will long-term optimism end? 48:30 Social Security  49:45 How to invest in gold 52:30 Thoughts on silver 56:00 Where to find more from Rick Rule
11/1/202258 minutes, 42 seconds
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#026 Brent Donnelly On Why It’s Starting To Feel Like 2001

Brent Donnelly (@donnelly_brent), president of Spectra Markets, joins Julia La Roche on episode 26. Brent has been trading since 1995 and writing about global macro since 2004. He is the author of “Alpha Trader” (2021) and “The Art of Currency Trading” (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected global macro daily called am/FX. He just published a trader handbook and almanac this week. Throughout his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in the U.S. and a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund. Brent also has a creative side, publishing colorful commentary. He also wrote a cartoon that ran on television in Canada. During this episode, Donnelly shares his macro views and why he’s near-term bullish and riding this optimism wave. Donnelley’s investment style takes only a one-week to a one-month horizon. Donnelly, who traded during the dot-com bubble burst, shares why we might see something similar to 2001 next year. 0:00 Intro 0:36 Early beginnings trading FX 2:24 Trading and writing cartoons 7:14 Writing critical to trading success 12:31 Daily trading plan 16:20 There’s no Fed pivot happening 18:05 Long stocks, short dollar in near-term 19:46 Mortgage resets 21:14 Pain from rate hikes in the U.S. comes later 23:23 Sell rallies in stocks 24:16 Fed losing credibility 28:03 Playing the optimism trade 30:28 Good time for macro 32:00 Tactical trading approach 34:34 Pavlovian buy-the-dip mentality 37:07 Why we might see something similar to 2001 42:00 What breaks things? 43:43 Magazine cover indicator
10/27/202252 minutes, 22 seconds
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#025 Alex Gurevich On Why Deflation — Not Inflation — Is The Real Concern

Alex Gurevich is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of two books — The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020. Gurevich led HonTe’s macro strategy in 2020 to rank second by net return according to BarclayHedge—and in the top ten of emerging managers in all strategies by Eurekahedge. Gurevich has over twenty years of trading experience and was hailed by the Wall Street Journal in 2003 as the star trader of JPMorgan, where he served as Managing Director responsible for global macro trading. In this episode, Gurevich shares his divergent views, which are that rates are most likely going to zero, and deflation — not inflation — is the concern. 0:00 Intro 0:31 St. Petersburg to America 1:38 Early interest in Wall Street 2:53 Poker and investing 4:39 Psychology of trading 8:37 Turning HonTe’s 2020 trading success into a book 12:33 Extreme side of the deflation camp 13:33 Two words: Policy lag 17:04 Outlook for rates 20:22 Implications of deflation 24:15 Why is there a shortage of dollars? 27:10 Scenario for deeper a longer recession, global depression 30:59 Oil and energy pivotal to the deflation story 33:14 Why Japan might be in the best position 34:34 What the inflation camp is missing 37:58 Focus on the Fed 42:11 Thesis of deflationary depression and implications for a portfolio 44:50 Why bonds will have more upside 46:00 What would alter or reinforce the thesis on deflation? 48:12 Final thoughts
10/25/202251 minutes, 37 seconds
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#024 "Convexity Maven" Harley Bassman On Repricing For Reality

Fixed income market legend Harley Bassman (@convexitymaven), known as “The Convexity Maven,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 24 for a wide-ranging conversation on the bond market, volatility, housing, demographics, and more.  Bassman is currently a managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, a fast-growing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) provider. At the recording date, the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX), which aims to hedge interest rate movements arising from rising long-term interest rates and to benefit from market stress when fixed income volatility increases, is up 100% year-to-date. Bassman is also the creator of the MOVE Index, a standard measure of interest rate volatility similar to the VIX. He clarifies how investors should think about the index and why levels near 50 and 150 are the “wrong number.”  In the conversation, Bassman discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and why there needs to be a repricing of all assets for reality.  0:00 Intro 0:31 Harley’s background 1:42 Convexity explained 3:22 Macro views 5:17 Inflation isn’t coming down quickly 8:30 The Fed is doing the job 11:17 Demographics is the iceberg 14:17 Boomers have robbed the Millennials 15:14 Public policy mistake with housing 18:14 People trying to buy a house right now are ‘unfortunate’ 20:40 Not going to be a housing crisis 22:19 The MOVE Index 30:27 Yield Curve single best predictor of a recession 34:58 MOVE and the VIX 37:19 Stocks will likely go down in an orderly fashion 40:25 The world’s not broken 43:47 Repricing for reality 46:34 Recession outlook 49:55 Learn to write, expand your mind 53:12 The Maven Mantra
10/20/202259 minutes
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#023 Nick Maggiulli On Why You Should ‘Just Keep Buying’

Ritholtz Wealth Management COO Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata), author of “Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth” and the popular finance blog Of Dollars And Data, joins Julia La Roche on episode 23.  In 2017, Nick made it his New Year’s Resolution to publish a weekly blog post. His “Of Dollars And Data” blog has grown in popularity, and his writing habit turned into a book deal.  In the conversation, Nick discusses his strategies for saving money and investing. He shared the biggest life perpetuated by personal finance experts, his “2X Rule” that lets you enjoy your money. Nick also explained his argument for why you shouldn’t pick individual stocks and why you shouldn’t max out your 401k. The self-described permabull also explained why investing is still the way to go, even during turbulent times.  0:00 Intro  0:31 Insights into the book publishing business  4:20 New Year’s Resolution to write 7:59 Saving is for the poor, investing is for the rich  12:13 How much should you save?  14:08 Biggest lie in personal finance  15:43 “The 2x Rule”  17:39 Retirement is about more than money  19:50 Thoughts on the FIRE movement  21:21 Think like an owner 23:13 Don’t buy individual stocks  26:35 Talented or lucky?  28:54 Thoughts on dollar cost averaging  31:46 How to buy during turbulent times 37:00 How do you know when it’s a buying opportunity  40:56 Why you shouldn’t max out your 401k  43:18 State of financial education  44:33 Why you’ll never feel rich  47:44 The most important asset  48:49 Begin life as a growth stock, end as a value stock
10/18/202252 minutes, 41 seconds
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#022 Brent Johnson On The "Dollar Milkshake" Theory And Why A Currency Crisis Is Ahead

Brent Johnson, the CEO of Puerto Rico-based wealth management firm Santiago Capital and the creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, joins Julia on episode 22.  Brent’s view is that we’re heading for a currency crisis. The Dollar Milkshake Theory is a framework Brent developed to explain how a sovereign debt and currency crisis might play out. He explained how the world was flooded with liquidity thanks to extraordinary monetary policies following the Global Financial Crisis. The Dollar Milkshake is a simplified way to demonstrate how capital — all of the liquidity that makes up the “milkshake” — would flee the rest of the world and get sucked up by the U.S. Dollar (the straw) and U.S.-based markets creating a myriad of problems globally.   During this conversation, Brent explains his Dollar Milkshake Theory, where he thinks we are within that framework, and why the U.S. Dollar’s explosion to the upside could cause problems to pop up worldwide. Elsewhere, Brent discussed how to navigate a currency crisis, the case for investing in gold, why everyone should have cash, and his concerns about bitcoin.  0:00 Intro/background 1:25 Macro views, focus on currencies  2:41 Explanation of the Dollar Milkshake Theory   6:39 Where are we in the Dollar Milkshake framework?  10:26 What could be the endgame?  13:16 Why should individuals care about the implications of currencies? 19:39 How currency problems will create contagion  26:37 Weaponization of the Dollar  33:17 Views on The Fed  37:55 How to navigate a currency crisis  41:29 Investing in gold  43:52 Advice for CEOs and companies navigating currency headwinds  45:28 Everybody should have cash  47:42 A complicated relationship with Bitcoin  50:00 What a new monetary system could look like 53:41 The Dollar Milkshake Theory doesn’t have a happy ending…  56:23 Think for yourself but think about what’s going to happen
10/13/202259 minutes, 35 seconds
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#021 Jim Rickards: We're Going To Wake Up This Winter With A Severe Recession

Best-selling author Jim Rickards joins Julia La Roche on episode 21 of the podcast to discuss his outlook on why a severe recession is coming and how to prepare for it. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. He is the author upcoming book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. In this episode, Rickards outlines his thesis for why a severe recession is coming. According to Rickards, "we're going to wake up this winter with a severe recession, high unemployment, and a much lower stock market." He notes that the stock market is "starting to get the message," and those who believe in the Fed pivot narrative are missing two huge fallacies. Rickards also warns on the dire debt situation in the U.S., with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 130%, well past the critical threshold. As Rickards notes, the U.S. is now "well past the point where you can borrow your way to growth, or you can borrow your way out of a debt crisis, and we're heading for a debt crisis." Elsewhere, Rickards shares his views on why inflation will turn to deflation, a "central banker's worse nightmare" and "pure poison" for debtors. He also details his outlook on the U.S. dollar and weighs in on currency fluctuations globally. 0:00 Intro 0:44 Views on the global economy 1:35 U.S. ‘almost certainly’ in a recession 3:08 What’s coming is a ‘very severe’ recession 3:43 Supply chains breaking down 4:50 Bloated inventories, slashing prices 5:15 Fed tightening rates into weakness 5:45 The stock market is starting to get the message 6:23 The Fed pivot crowd face huge fallacies in that narrative 10:40 Bottom might not be until late 2023 11:40 We’re going to wake up with winter with a severe recession, high unemployment, and a much lower stock market 12:30 Explanation of financial crises and recessions 19:30 Recession may be worse than 2008 21:01 Odds of a financial crisis are ‘uncomfortably high’ 22:26 Fed raising rates to curb inflation will be effective at a ‘very high cost’ 24:02 Deflation/disinflation coming down the tracks 24:46 2 types of inflation explained 29:16 The impact of debt is like an extremely powerful glacier 35:40 Thoughts on MMT 44:30 Debt does matter 45:05 Deflation is ‘pure poison’ when it comes to the debt-to-GDP ratio 51:09 Thoughts on U.S. Dollar, currency fluctuations 58:46 Diversifying your portfolio
10/11/20221 hour, 5 minutes, 5 seconds
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#020 Josh Brown: You Weren’t Supposed To See That

Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm managing over $2.7 billion, joins Julia La Roche on episode 20. Josh, a frequent commentator on CNBC, is the author of three books, including Backstage Wall Street and the popular financial blog, The Reformed Broker. In this episode, Josh shares his journey from a retail stockbroker launching a financial blog during the 2008 crisis to building and scaling an RIA. For Josh, writing changed the course of his career. Writing is what connected Josh with his firm's co-founder, and creating content through blogs and podcasts has been the sole driver of the firm’s clients. These days, Josh has slowed the frequency of his blog posts, but when he writes it's an accumulation of ideas he's been pondering, and the latest blog he dropped on Sunday, Oct. 2, though, called “You Weren’t Supposed To See That,” went viral. In 3,400 words, Josh examines “the greatest economic experiment” of the last three years, from the shutdowns, remote work enabled by technology, the stimulus, appreciation in stocks and housing, the emergence of digital art and SPACs, an increase in new businesses and LLCs, used car prices going up, household debt shrinking, household net worth rising, squandering of stimulus checks, and so on, all resulting in the worst inflation in 40 years. As Josh highlights on the podcast, all of this revealed “a dark truth about the American dream.” As Josh puts it in the blog, “Widespread prosperity, it turns out, is incompatible with the American Dream. The only way our economy works is when there are winners and losers. If everyone’s a winner, the whole thing fails. That’s what we learned at the conclusion of our experiment. You weren’t supposed to see that. Now the genie is out of the bottle. For one brief shining moment, everyone had enough money to pay their bills and the financial freedom to choose their own way of life. “And it broke the f*****g economy in half.” Timestamps:  0:00 Intro 2:16 Retail stockbroker to blogger 3:59 Lessons from broker days 7:08 Blogging during the financial crisis 9:53 Writing is essential for investors 13:18 Teaming up with Barry Ritholtz 15:37 Content is the sole driver of clients 19:31 “You weren’t supposed to see that” 23:50 A dark truth about the American dream 25:11 Legal immigration is one solution 28:44 Views on the “American Dream” 32:30 Implications for younger Americans 35:42 Where does the blame lie? 37:26 Mass prosperity wasn’t the goal 38:15 Reactions to the viral blog post 40:12 This recession is necessary to prevent the next recession. - Fed policy, literally 41:35 Why @Downtown doesn’t Tweet often 48:06 Where do we go from here?
10/6/202254 minutes, 26 seconds
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#019 Marty Chavez On How Software Ate Finance

Joining Julia La Roche on episode 19 of the podcast is R. Martin (“Marty”) Chavez, a partner and vice chair of Sixth Street Capital and a former Goldman Sachs executive. Before joining Sixth Street, a global investment firm with more than $60 billion in assets under management, Chavez served in various senior roles at Goldman Sachs, including Chief Information Officer, overseeing the firm’s 9,000 engineers; Chief Financial Officer; and global co-head of the firm’s Securities Division. Chavez was also a partner and member of the Goldman Sachs management committee. In this episode, Chavez shares his background, growing up in a large family in Albuquerque, New Mexico. His parents strongly emphasized education, and as Chavez’s mother put it, he had to “work twice as hard to get half as far.” As a student, Chavez excelled in math, and by the 7th grade, he was taking college math courses at the University of New Mexico. That’s also where he discovered his love for computers. A Stanford Ph.D., Chavez shares his unlikely path from Silicon Valley to Wall Street. He was the first openly gay employee at Goldman Sachs in 1993 and was among the most senior Latinos on Wall Street. Chavez is widely recognized for helping transform the Wall Street trading business into a software business, revolutionizing how capital moves and works. He is also known for bringing the front and back offices together. The episode delves into Chavez’s views on the future of finance, his thesis on how software ate finance, his thoughts on regulating fintech, and the powerful trend of dematerialization. 0:00 Intro 0:23 Growing up in Albuquerque, New Mexico 4:15 Education is the answer 6:40 Harvard sophomore at age 16 8:00 Early work on the protein folding problem 10:00 Creating a ‘digital twin' with software  12:10 Focus was on AI, not finance 16:00 A ‘free trip’ to NYC from Goldman 17:17 First openly gay employee at Goldman 19:13 ‘Just being me’ 22:50 Building trust and connectedness with colleagues 23:48 Leaving Goldman in 1997, choosing sobriety 25:35 Launching a startup before the dot-com bubble 28:30 The call from Gary Cohn 30:20 A vow of silence and cleaning toilets in a monastery 31:50 Evolution of tech at Goldman 34:04 Connecting with clients in Spanish 36:00 How software ate finance 40:50 Application Programming Interface (API) explained 44:10 Same number of people, different skills 46:27 future of fintech is banks 50:14 Digital assets, and the powerful trend of dematerialization
10/4/202255 minutes, 27 seconds
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#018 David Friedberg On Reimagining The World Through Decentralization

Investor and entrepreneur Dave Friedberg (@friedberg), the CEO of The Production Board and co-host/“Bestie” on The All-In Podcast, joined Julia La Roche on today’s episode for a wide-ranging conversation. Friedberg was born in South Africa and moved to Los Angeles with his family at age 6. Friedberg studied astrophysics and UC Berkley. He joined Google months before its initial public offering working in corporate development. At the end of 2006, Friedberg left Google to start The Climate Corporation, a software company focused on agriculture. Monsanto acquired the Climate Corporation in 2013 for around $1 billion.  In the episode, Friedberg shares his struggles raising venture capital for The Climate Corporation and later rapidly iterating and evolving the business model and product. According to Friedberg, three predictors for a startup’s success — grit, bias to action, and narrative — are all traits he looks for in making investments today. Friedberg started The Production Board, a holding company that creates and invests in agriculture, food, human health, life sciences, and biomanufacturing businesses. A core tenet of The Production Board focuses on decentralizing industrial processes to reinvent how we make and consume things as a species, from clothing, materials, plastics, food, and more. Friedberg sees a tremendous opportunity to deploy technologies such as biomanufacturing, automation, 3-D printing, or additive manufacturing to modularize and decentralize production, which benefits the planet and serves human needs. One example is Cana, a molecular beverage printer that allows consumers to turn water into soda, juice, coffee, and tea at home using a flavor cartridge without all the CO2 emissions that span the existing supply chains. Elsewhere, Friedberg shared his views on how we can achieve free, abundant energy. He predicts terrestrial nucleosynthesis could drive the greatest source of value and wealth creation in the 22nd century, and he extrapolates what this might mean for civilization.  0:00 Intro 0:30 Origin story 2:18 Friedberg’s interest in science 3:56 Lessons in entrepreneurship 7:15 Predictors of startup success 8:15 Building ‘grit’ in business 10:05 Importance of narrative 12:35 Strong storytellers more likely to succeed 14:14 Everything is learnable 18:42 Macro view of reimagining earth 25:45 Why anti-consumerism is dumb 29:30 Cana, the molecular beverage printer 32:15 Decentralization in media expanding to physical goods 33:45 Creators’ products will win against traditional products 39:58 Starbucks the first personalized consumer products company 42:30 Abundant free energy 53:45 From laborers to knowledge workers to narrators 1:00:34 Thoughts on UBI 1:04:55 Why is there fear around new technology? 1:06:03 Implications of solving the protein folding problem
9/29/20221 hour, 14 minutes, 43 seconds
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#017 Jim Rogers: The Next Bear Market Will Be 'The Worst In My Lifetime'

Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers joins Julia La Roche on this episode for a wide-ranging conversation from the economy, markets, and investing to seeking adventure and lessons for younger generations.  In this episode, Julia and Jim revisit his Guinness World Record adventures, including his motorcycle ride across six continents in the early 90s and his journey across 116 countries in a custom-made yellow Mercedes convertible at the turn of the century.  In the conversation, Jim shares his views on the global macro economy and markets. The 79-year-old investor predicts that the next bear market will be “the worst” in his lifetime because of the explosion in debt.  Elsewhere, Jim weighs in on debt, inflation, the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin, commodities, agriculture, and China. He also imparts lessons for the younger generations.  0:00 Seeking adventure  2:22 Lessons learned traveling the world  4:30 How traveling shaped Rogers’ investing  6:30 Alabama to Wall Street  9:06 Working with Soros  10:00 October 19, 1987  12:15 Questioning everything  16:20 Macro outlook  18:15 “Worst bear market” in life  20:30 Longer-term consequences of debt  23:36 Outlook for the U.S. Dollar  25:19 Prescriptions for the U.S.  26:07 Thoughts on Bitcoin  27:50 Protecting yourself from inflation  30:00 View on agriculture  31:48 Secular trends  34:06 Investing opportunities  35:50 Bond Bubble  37:17 Short-selling  40:25 China  43:20 Lessons in life, investing  49:00 Views on education  52:40 Thoughts on the future of the world 
9/27/202254 minutes, 52 seconds
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#016 Marc Benioff On The New Era For Business

Billionaire tech titan Marc Benioff, the founder and CEO of Salesforce, joins Julia La Roche on a special episode at Dreamforce, the software and cloud giant's annual technology conference in San Francisco.  This year's Dreamforce attracted 40,000 attendees, making it the most significant event in San Francisco since the COVID pandemic. Benioff shared that the event brought in an estimated $40 million to the local economy, giving a much-needed "big shot in the arm" to the city. With sparsely populated offices, the San Francisco native CEO made a case for companies choosing San Francisco to host large events and conferences instead of places like Las Vegas. The conversation also touched upon the homelessness situation in San Francisco. As San Francisco's largest private employer, Benioff supported the passage of Proposition in 2018, which levied a 0.5% tax on the city's largest companies to combat the homelessness crisis. During the conversation, he called for institutionalizing affordable housing in the U.S. and for more mental health and addiction treatment programs. Benioff started Salesforce in 1999 as a pioneer in software-as-a-service (SaaS) and customer relationship management (CRM). Since then, it's become the largest enterprise software company and customer relationship management (CRM) company globally. The company is expected to do $31 billion in annual revenue this year and aims to hit $50 billion in the fiscal year 2026. While at Dreamforce, Benioff unveiled the company's newest product, Salesforce Genie, the first real-time CRM. Since its inception, Salesforce has integrated philanthropy into its business, primarily with its 1-1-1 model, where the company donates 1% of its equity, product, and employee time to charity. Benioff discussed some of the focus areas, including the environment through reforestation and adopting public schools. He also shared some of the biggest influences in his life and business and advice for next-generation entrepreneurs.  0:00 The Great Reunion  1:38 Future of Work  2:57 Quit Quitting  4:42 Views on the Economy  5:56 Salesforce Genie  7:32 Talk to Your Customers  9:02 $50B Goal  10:03 Ecopreneur Revolution  11:40 Public Education  14:34 San Francisco  17:47 Influences  21:54 Advice for Entrepreneurs 
9/23/202224 minutes, 5 seconds
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#015 Activist Short-Seller Dan David On 'The China Hustle' And Uncovering Frauds

Activist short-seller Dan David, the founder of Wolfpack Research and host of the “I Hung Up On Warren Buffett” podcast, joins Julia La Roche on today’s episode. Dan is best known for uncovering frauds in Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges. In this episode, Julia and Dan discuss his journey from being a long-only investor to an activist short-seller exposing frauds. Dan delves into his process of uncovering fraudulent companies, from deploying a tea salesperson to inquire how many employees were at a plant to posting video cameras to monitor truck traffic. Dan also details the involvement of the U.S. banks and law firms in these frauds that impacted millions of everyday Americans’ retirement and investment accounts. Dan, who has been sued for $250 million, breaks the merits of short-selling and the importance of Freedom of Speech. He also shares what he's focused on today.  0:00 Intro/ journey into short-selling 3:55 Carson Block’s Orient Paper short report 5:22 The pervasiveness of Chinese stock frauds 7:28 How U.S. banks, law firms enabled stock fraud 9:30 Why frauds targeted U.S. investors 11:08 U.S. banks involvement 13:31 Thousands of people involved 14:20 How the fraud worked 17:16 An example of uncovering a fraud 22:19 Thoughts on “The China Hustle” film 26:00 Sino-Forest fraud 28:00 Orient Paper 30:40 Why we “won this round” 33:10 Sohn Conference in Hong Kong 35:50 U.S./China geopolitical tensions 40:30 Short-selling 46:00 Freedom of Speech  49:22 Hanging up on Buffett 56:12 Opportunities today 
9/20/202258 minutes, 54 seconds
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#014 Nik Bhatia On The Coexistence Of The Dollar And Bitcoin

Nik Bhatia is a financial researcher and Adjunct Professor of Finance and Business Economics at the University of Southern California Marshall School of Business, where he teaches Applied Finance in Fixed Income Securities. He is the author of the best-seller Layered Money: From Gold and Dollars to Bitcoin and Central Bank Digital Currencies. He currently writes The Bitcoin Layer, a research publication on Substack. In this episode, he discusses the younger generation's interest in Bitcoin and digital assets. He also dives into monetary history and some of the most important takeaways. Nik takes a global macro approach to Bitcoin analysis as a former bond trader and rates analyst. He expects the U.S. dollar “will remain King Dollar for decades to come.” Moreover, he thinks Bitcoin won’t break the dollar and will coexist with the dollar system. 0:00 Intro 3:00 Teaching at USC 7:00 Students embracing bitcoin 11:00 Monetary History 17:50 Views on the U.S. Dollar 23:29 Protecting yourself from a broken dollar system 31:00 Inflation and possible path for monetary policy
9/15/202242 minutes, 52 seconds
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#013 Epsilon Theory's Ben Hunt On The Narratives Everywhere

Ben Hunt, the author of Epsilon Theory and co-founder of Second Foundation Partners, joins Julia La Roche to discuss narratives and how they shape everything from financial markets to politics.  Ben’s Epsilon Theory is a newsletter read by over 100,000 investors and allocators that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history and provides novel insights into market dynamics.  In this conversation, Ben details his focus in the investment world on examining unstructured data, which includes “the words that we read and the messages that we hear.” He explains that whether it’s in investing or politics, once you start to understand underlying narratives and story arcs, you begin to see them everywhere.  Ben also discussed how narratives are pervasive in the media and his approach to his content diet. He also outlined his “Fiat News” concept and how narratives get “weaponized.”  Elsewhere, Ben, who has written in praise of Bitcoin, explained how Wall Street co-opted the narratives surrounding the cryptocurrency, and it’s now “just another table at the Wall Street Casino.”  Finally, Ben discussed polarization and how American politics is approaching an “event horizon” that it might not be able to escape.  0:00 Intro/ Ben’s background  4:54 Unstructured data    10:02 Why don’t we recognize narratives/stories?  13:40 Michael Crichton’s Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect  17:30 Ben’s content diet  22:09 ‘Surviving’ in the environment  24:23 ‘Fiat News’  30:10 Weaponized narratives  35:21 The story of Bitcoin 40:16 Wall Street co-opted Bitcoin  45:39 Pervasive political conflict 52:22 How to protect yourself from political crisis  Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/frQ5SPKQMb4
9/13/202258 minutes, 27 seconds
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#012 Jim Bianco: This Is The New Normal. Get Used To It.

Macro researcher Jim Bianco, the president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macroeconomic environment. Bianco’s research style is macro with a bent toward fixed income and dabbles in the traditional macro to highlight things that people are not focused on or emphasizing enough. In the conversation, Bianco highlights three bubbles that existed pre-2020 that were unrelated to the financial markets, including cheap labor, goods, and energy. According to Bianco, the pandemic pulled forward 20 to 30 years of change, and we are not returning to a pre-2020 way of life of globalization, cheap goods, and cheap energy.  Bianco notes that this change drives financial and economic volatility and persistent and chronic inflation. To be sure, Bianco doesn’t see it as an apocalyptic or pessimistic scenario but rather one of significant change and volatility.  Watch the interview on YouTube: https://youtu.be/D1O4pr8mdKA Follow Jim on Twitter: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/julialaroche
9/8/20221 hour, 2 minutes, 10 seconds
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#011 Anthony Scaramucci On Failure, Bitcoin, and Trump

Anthony Scaramucci, founder/managing partner of fund-of-funds SkyBridge Capital and affectionately known as "The Mooch," joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on life, business, investing, and politics.  Scaramucci details some of his biggest career failures — including being fired by Goldman Sachs, failing the New York State bar exam, and getting fired from the White House — and the lessons learned along the way, from resilience to relationship building.  Scaramucci also discusses the markets and the opportunities he sees in this environment. Once a bitcoin skeptic, Scaramucci talks about SkyBridge's big bet on the cryptocurrency, why he thinks it's "dirt cheap" at these price levels, and his thesis for $300,000 per bitcoin.  Scaramucci famously served as the White House Director of Communications from July 21 to July 31, 2017, before getting fired. Scaramucci, a vocal critic of the former president in recent years, reveals if he could ever "make peace" with Trump. He also shares his thoughts on Mar-a-Lago. Watch the interview on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vS9x2cyewYw Follow Scaramucci on Twitter: https://twitter.com/scaramucci Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/julialaroche
9/6/202255 minutes, 17 seconds
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#010 Kyle Bass On Energy, China, Inflation, And More

Texas-based hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founder of private equity firm Conservation Equity Management, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and investment opportunities.   Regarding macroeconomics, Europe is facing one of the worst winters of high power prices ever due to its overreliance on Russia and policies pushed by shareholders, NGOs, and teenagers. As a result, Bass expects Europe to see a meaningful recession. What's more, he believes the solution to the mess in the short-to-intermediate term is more hydrocarbons and embracing nuclear energy in the long term. Elsewhere, Bass, a long-time critic of China, discusses why he thinks China will invade Taiwan. He also highlights how the Chinese economy is "circling the drain," and the banking system is hyper-levered, especially in real estate. He notes that investors should probably sell Chinese equities to limit the "risk to a genocidal regime that's likely to become militaristically belligerent." The U.S. is still in the best position globally, according to Bass. His macro take is to expect a sharp recession, and depending on how aggressive the Federal Reserve is with its rate hikes; they could make it worse. Bass expects the U.S. to come out of that recession, and the Fed will cut rates by the end of next year or early 2024 and expand its balance sheet again. As a result, Bass is interested in hard, productive assets like rural land that can can generate superior returns that outpace inflation. Watch the interview on YouTube: https://youtu.be/p0_euL0QnnE Follow Kyle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jkylebass Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/julialaroche
9/1/202253 minutes, 59 seconds
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#009 CrowdStrike's Adam Meyers On The Biggest Cyber Threats

In this episode, Julia is joined by cybersecurity expert Adam Meyers, the senior vice president of intelligence for CrowdStrike.  Meyers looks after CrowdStrike’s intelligence gathering and cyber-adversarial monitoring activities, which include around 185 adversaries.  With more than twenty years of experience in cybersecurity, Meyers has a talent for breaking down incredibly complex and nuanced concepts in cyber for everyday folks.    In this wide-ranging conversation, they discuss Chinese cyber economic espionage, the greatest transfer of wealth. The discussion also touches on North Korea’s targeting of cryptocurrency and decentralized financial systems for revenue generation meant to increase state wealth. The discussion explores data weaponization by hackers and the worrisome trend of making that data easily searchable and accessible. Meyers sheds light on cyber threats from Russia and details the growing threat of election meddling.
8/31/20221 hour, 25 minutes, 31 seconds
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#008 Alan Patricof on 50 years of investing, Burning Man and the NYC Marathon at 87, and living to 114

Alan Patricof (@alanjpatricof) is a venture capital pioneer with a career spanning more than 50 years and showing no signs of slowing down. The 87-year-old started his third venture capital business nearly two years ago called Primetime Partners, wrote his first book published this year, and this week he'll be attending Burning Man, and in the fall, he'll run the New York City Marathon for the sixth time. He joins Julia La Roche on this episode for a wide-ranging conversation on life and investing.  Patricof started in venture capital at 36 in 1970, before a venture capital industry existed. His Patricof & Co. Ventures Inc. was the predecessor to Apax Partners, one of the largest private equity firms today. In 2006, at 72, Patricof founded Greycroft Partners, a venture capital firm that led numerous investments in digital media companies. He has since left Greycroft to take on the founding partner and chairperson role at Primetime Partners. At Primetime Partners, Patricof, who said he plans to live until 114, is focused on what he calls the "ageless generation" — those over the age of 60 that are part of the fastest-growing part population. Since its inception two years ago, Primetime Partners has deployed capital across 25 investments with a focus on seed and early-stage investments in products, services, and experiences for the aging, including aging in place, financial security for retirees, care management, longevity health services, and consumer experiences. Primetime has also backed older entrepreneurs building companies, with 18% of its founders over 50. With his new book, "No Red Lights," Patricof hopes to encourage the older generation "not to pack it all in and go to the golf course and retire." He also hopes to share lessons with the younger generation to be open to new opportunities and live a life of curiosity.
8/25/202257 minutes, 29 seconds
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#007 Ryan Williams On Unlocking Access To Commercial Real Estate Investing

Today's guest is Ryan Williams, Cadre's founder and executive chairman. Cadre is a tech-enabled commercial real estate investing platform backed by Goldman Sachs, Andreessen Horowitz, Ford Foundation, Harvard Management Company, Khosla Ventures, Thrive Capital, General Catalyst, and others. A native of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, entrepreneurship runs deep in Ryan's veins. In this episode, Ryan and Julia discuss his entrepreneurial journey and building that entrepreneurial muscle, from his time selling sports sweatbands as a teenager to first investing in real estate as a college student.  With his college roommate, Ryan began his career in real estate investing in Atlanta during the 2008 subprime credit crisis. The pair purchased foreclosed properties using pooled funds from classmates and, in many cases, helped those families buy back the homes. After working at Goldman Sachs and Blackstone Group, Ryan launched Cadre, which sits at the intersection of finance, technology, and real estate.  Ryan recognizes that real estate ownership is a significant driver of economic prosperity. Since its founding in 2014, Cadre has closed more than $5 billion in transactions, delivered a greater than 25% net average IRR, and returned more than $400 million to investors. His vision involves opening up more access to investing in commercial real estate. 
8/23/202252 minutes, 27 seconds
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#006 Greg Lukianoff on Free Speech and 'Free Speech Culture'

Prominent First Amendment attorney Greg Lukianoff, a New York Times best-selling author and the President and CEO of The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (previously called the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), joins Julia on this episode for a wide-ranging discussion on free speech. In this discussion, Lukianoff explains what free speech is, some of the biggest misconceptions surrounding free speech, and the importance of fostering a free speech culture. He also covers his work on college campuses and why free speech has worsened since 2015. The conversation also covers FIRE’s expanded mission in the workplace, why journalism is the worst industry for free speech, cancel culture, and free speech on social media. Lukianoff is the author of Unlearning Liberty: Campus Censorship and the End of American Debate, Freedom From Speech, and FIRE’s Guide to Free Speech on Campus. Most recently, he co-authored The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation for Failure with Jonathan Haidt. He’s working on his next book Cancelling of the American Mind with his co-author Rikki Schlott.
8/18/202255 minutes, 32 seconds
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#005 Hugh Hendry on Why We’re Already in the 4th Depression

Contrarian macro investor and thinker Hugh Hendry (@Hendry_Hugh) joins Julia La Roche for a two-hour, unfiltered conversation that covers everything, from his early years in the hedge fund world to why he’s currently fearful of the economy. In this episode, Hugh discusses his time “healing” from the hedge fund world while living on St. Barts for the past five years. He revisits his earliest years, how he got into markets, and his investment process while running his hedge fund. Hugh also explains why he’s fearful of the economy and unpacks his views on why he thinks we’re currently in the fourth depression in the last 200 years that he argues will end in “a revolution in money.” Hugh is also critical of the Federal Reserve and believes they’re making a mistake with rate hikes while debt is “at warning levels.” The conversation also covers inflation, class warfare, the problems with ESG, current opportunities in the market, why he thinks gold is a “stupid” investment, and his thoughts on Bitcoin. Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks. These days, Hendry is a luxury hotelier on St. Barts, where he spends his time surfing and still thinking about macro. He also hosts a weekly podcast called “Acid Capitalist” and shares his views on Instagram, Twitter, and Substack.
8/16/20221 hour, 56 minutes, 13 seconds
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#004 Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Gerry Parsky on Lessons from the 70s and Parallels to Now

In this episode, Julia is joined by Gerry Parsky, founder and chairman of private equity firm Aurora Capital Partners and partner of Endurance Partners.  When Parsky was 31, he was appointed Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, a position he held from 1974 until 1977. In that role, Parsky was responsible for capital markets policy. He also was responsible for all of the Treasury Department’s international affairs, including trade policy, international monetary policy, investment and energy policy; relations with industrial and developing countries; and U. S. policy relating to the international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.  In this episode, Julia and Gerry discuss the importance of mentorship, public service, lessons from the 1970s, inflation, energy, private equity, and more.  
8/11/20221 hour, 22 seconds
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#003 David Cote on Winning Now, Winning Later

David Cote, executive chairman of Vertiv Holdings and former CEO of Honeywell, joined Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion of his best-selling book “Winning Now, Winning Later.” Cote knows a thing or two about turning things around. He describes his early years as a “tumultuous beginning.” The first in his family to graduate high school, Cote had a 1.8 GPA in college before he stopped attending classes to be a fisherman. Shortly after getting married, Cote and his wife found out they were expecting, and he only had $100 in the bank. Cote got serious and returned to school, earning straight As. He later started at GE as an hourly worker before moving up the executive track only to be fired by Jack Welch. Cote’s opportunity to change as a leader began in February 2002 when he joined Honeywell as its CEO. During his 15-year tenure, Cote took Honeywell's market cap from $20 billion to $120 billion, delivering returns of 800 percent and beating the S&P by nearly two and a half times.
8/9/202256 minutes, 14 seconds
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#002 Bill Browder on Surviving Putin's Wrath

Bill Browder is one of the most influential human rights activists in the world today, working to hold human rights abusers to account. Browder architected and spearheaded the campaign to pass The Magnitsky Act, a federal law that allows for sanctions, freezing assets, and visa bans on foreign nationals who’ve committed human rights abuses. Browder, the founder of hedge fund firm Hermitage Capital Management, was once the largest foreign investor in Russia, where he took an activist investing approach by exposing high-level corruption among company managers and officials. He was expelled from Russia in 2005 and declared a threat to national security. Police later raided his Moscow offices, and those officials used the seized documents to commit a complex and massive fraud. This $230 million fraud was discovered by Browder’s friend Sergei Magnitsky, a 37-year-old Russian lawyer. Magnitsky, a married father, was tortured and ultimately beaten to death while in a Russian prison in 2009. Magnitsky’s murder changed Browder’s life. From that day, he vowed to put aside his business and dedicate all his time and resources to exposing the corrupt Russians responsible for Magnitsky’s death. He joins Julia La Roche on this episode taped in mid-June 2022 to discuss his newest book, “Freezing Order: A True Story of Russian Money Laundering, State-Sponsored Murder, and Surviving Vladimir Putin’s Wrath.”
8/9/202255 minutes, 29 seconds
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#001 Morgan Housel on The Psychology of Money

In this episode, Julia La Roche (@julialaroche) is joined by Morgan Housel (@morganhousel), the best-selling author of “The Psychology of Money,” with over 2 million copies sold worldwide. Even Morgan was surprised by the book’s viral success after being turned down by every major New York publisher before being picked up by London-based Harriman House. “The Psychology of Money” surfaces timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness hiding in plain sight. During this conversation, Morgan takes us inside his writing process. Morgan also shares stories of the rich throwing gold coins into the Pacific Ocean (for fun!) only to later go broke to the janitor who died with a secret multi-million dollar fortune. Plus, learn why Warren Buffett is NOT the best investor of all time and why average individuals who can’t even remember their investment account passwords are beating the hedge funds. Morgan Housel is a partner at Collaborative Fund, a board member of the Markel Corporation, and a former columnist at The Motley Fool and The Wall Street Journal.
8/9/20221 hour, 39 seconds