Dana Samuelson, president of the American Gold Exchange, joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss why gold prices are set up to rally further -- even after a 20% rise so far this year. This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, July 19. 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following business day. For information on becoming a premium subscriber -- and the host of other benefits it involves -- visit our Substack. Content Highlights Gold is trading right near all-time highs. Can there really be more room for upside? (1:48); One thing missing from the equation for still higher gold prices is interest rate cuts... (3:36); Another thing missing is fear in the market (5:07); Gold has rallied 20% so far this year. A Fed rate cut will supply another 10%. $3000/oz. gold is in sight... (8:36); What of the argument that there's no tangible use for gold? (11:20); Why gold coins are preferable to bars (14:30); Background on the guest (19:39); Quarters and dimes vintage 1964 are 90% silver (26:40); View on digital currencies and Bitcoin. There is a place for it... (33:20); How much of one's portfolio should be earmarked for gold and precious metals? (37:15) More Information on the Guest Twitter/X: @DanaSamuelson99; LinkedIn: @American-Gold-Exchange-Inc; Website: AmerGold.com; YouTube: AmericanGoldExchangeAustin.

Darius Foroux, author of the upcoming book 'The Stoic Path to Wealth,' joined the podcast to discuss his, well, stoic approach to investing. This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, June 25, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack. Content Highlights How interest in philosophy rekindled his interest in investing after the great financial crisis (1:32); A brief introduction to stoicism, a 2,300 year-old philosophy that is distinct from cynicism (4:08); How to apply this to investing (6:14); Isn't investing in indexes just the best way to go? (12:38); The '90/10' portfolio allocation: 90% in the S&P 500, 10% in individual stocks (17:24); The Dutch Stripe, trades in Amsterdam and on Pink Sheets (18:06); Background on the guest (28:54); The guest's second individual stock holding. Listeners will have heard about this one (33:01); How does a stoic combat FOMO (41:41). More Information on the Guest Website: DariusForoux.com; Twitter: @DariusForoux; Instagram: @DariusForoux; YouTube: @DariusForoux. Not investment advice.

Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a 'stagflation lite' environment. This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, June 7, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following Monday. Visit the Substack or Supercast for more information about premium subscriptions. Content Highlights "Labor markets are way too hot." There will be "no landing" (1:48); Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59); 'Stagflation lite' (8:31); Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59); The Federal Reserve probably needs to cut rates. Could they? Probably not -- this year (22:21); What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51); Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54); Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07); The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).

Bob Elliott of Unlimited rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism that may not be based on economic realities...   This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 28, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack. Content Highlights Stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism. Just how unrealistic is that? (1:19); What is there to indicate the economy could slow this year or even next? (4:34); A recession may be years away rather than months under current conditions. But conditions, as we know, can change quickly... (8:58); There is a precedence to interest rates going up dramatically without it causing an immediate and dramatic entrenchment in economic growth (11:52); Tech stocks might be overvalued but comparisons to the dot-com bubble are unfair and inaccurate -- and may preclude a spectacular bust (16:10); Today's economic expansion is income-driven. Not a result of credit expansion (18:13); What kinds of indicators should investors study to spot a slowdown in this particular type of economic activity? (30:45); Regional banks are for the most part fairly priced at present... (35:50). More Information on the Guest Website: UnlimitedFunds.com; Twitter: @BoBEUnlimited; YouTube: @BobEUnlimited.

Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 7 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber. Content Highlights: The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56); The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31); Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there's no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn't be the first time) (8:50); Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03); China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit... (15:58); India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11); The guest's favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07); A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00). For more about the guest, visit her firm's website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. 

This episode was recorded April 15, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or interruptions. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack page. Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview -- one where the US is no longer the sole superpower -- the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities. And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy. Content Highlights The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09); China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It's just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07); The guest's trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52); One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19); Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15); Background on the guest (41:04); Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40); As Russia's economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis... (53:03); US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has "something like five years" before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45); Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45). More Information on the Guest LinkedIn; Website: FlorinCourt.com.

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 29, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the next trading day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit our substack. Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick -- and it's not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length. Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised.  The guest's microphone setup is significantly better than the host's so don't get discouraged by the host sounding like he's hiding in a cave at the open. Content Highlights Trends are underrated. Many investors don't respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21); However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back -- as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24); On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30); When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same... (15:36); Contrarian take: there's no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00); Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54); Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20); One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51). More on the Guest Website: HXResearch.net; Twitter/X: @EnriqueAbeyta.

This podcast was released for premium subscribers on March 20, 2024. For more information on premium subscriptions please visit our Substack. Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows. Note: The host's mic was a little 'stuffy' for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear! Content Highlights Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55); No, this isn't about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22); Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder... (18:30) Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37); Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33); What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40). More on the Guest Website: StrategicDividendInvestor.com; Twitter: @HistoryInvestor; Order the book.

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack. Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment. Content Highlights What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56); The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36); The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04); Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51); Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40); Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06); Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05); Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17); The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36); The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25). More From the Guest Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com; Order the book on Amazon.com; LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins.

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast. Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio. Content Highlights The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47); "There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08); One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59); Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05); Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22); Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48); Background on the guest (23:07); What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32). More from the guest Website: OxbowAdvisors.com; Twitter: @Oxbow_Advisors; YouTube; LinkedIn: Oxbow_Advisors.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his "surprisingly optimistic" outlook for the US economy in 2024. This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages. Content Highlights The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30); The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39); Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps... (6:35); The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren't rate cuts right away (10:05); How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US... (17:01); Commercial real estate is 'the canary in the coal mine' but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008... (24:36); The guest's take on the impact of this year's US presidential election (28:15); Top concerns start with deficit spending... (33:23); An economist's take on the AI revolution (39:28). More on the Guest Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024. Content Highlights Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29); Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00); The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57); How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36); Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58); The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06); Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35); Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40); How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31) More About the Guest Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com; Twitter: @BarryKnapp.