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Saxo Market Call

English, Finance, 1 seasons, 268 episodes, 3 days 16 hours 21 minutes
About
Saxo Bank's strategy team delivers market insights across all asset classes.
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Commodities: Why speculative interest is important for everyone

In today's episode we're talking with Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, about the weekly so-called Commitment of Trader report and discuss why it may be relevant for all investors interested in commodities. We do so by focusing on cocoa, which has seen a very steep price increase. We dig into the why, how and future perspectives for the commodity. We also discuss grain and natural gas and the difference in dynamics in all three commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
29/02/202424 minutes 19 seconds
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Equities: Evaluating geographical valuations

In today’s episode it’s all about equities. That also means that Peter Garnry is the host. He takes on a journey from Asia to the US and through Europe to give a status on the valuation of equities in some of the major markets in the world. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
27/02/202423 minutes 47 seconds
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Macro & FX: Will markets turn their attention to macro?

In today’s episode Charu Chanana, macro expert and Head of FX strategy. After a week with a very high focus on the Nvidia earnings report, markets may move to focus more on macro figures with one of this week's most important ones being the American PCE. Depending on how it comes out, this may inform Fed's approach to rate policy. She also gives an update on last week's positive performance in China and presents what forex to watch. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
26/02/202423 minutes 53 seconds
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Special edition: Why traders and investors should care about the US election

In this special episode of the Saxo Market Call podcast, Peter Garnry, Head of SaxoStrats and Equity Strategy and John J. Hardy, former podcast host and US politics expert, dive into the turbulent seas of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election and its potential impact on the financial markets. Their discussion revolves around key points are relevant for investors and traders alike to get a better understanding of the effects of what promises to be a highly contentious electoral battle on global economic dynamics.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo. This podcast episode was recorded on February 14, 2024.
22/02/202428 minutes 55 seconds
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Equities: Will Nvidia shake the AI boom?

Nvidia's earnings report is the most important event for market sentiment in this week. Expectations are sky high, but past performance has also been remarkable. But the further you go up, the further you risk falling. In today's equity focused episode, Peter Garnry is the expert and he discusses the expectations of Nvidia's earnings and take the temperature of the boom in AI stocks and their expected growth over the past few years. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
20/02/202427 minutes 29 seconds
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Macro & FX: How the debate about the US economy has shifted

In today’s episode Charu Chanana, macro expert and Head of FX strategy. She discusses how the debate about the US economy has gone from expecting recession to now looking at a so-called “no-landing” scenario. She also touches on the US dollar, US equities as well as Chinese and Japanese performance. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
19/02/202421 minutes 38 seconds
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What rate cuts mean for bond markets

In today’s episode, Althea Spinozzi, Head of fixed income strategy, is the expert. She presents a status of the US and EU bond markets so far in 2024. She then presents what the current development may mean for fixed income in the coming quarter before discussing what that may mean in terms of diversification and positioning. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
15/02/202421 minutes 16 seconds
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Is confidence in a soft landing restored?

In this episode, Head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry looks back at an action-packed earnings week and concludes the general vibe of it. Looking ahead to the coming week, there will be less earnings, but a host of important macro figures especially from the US, which are bound to come back in to investors' focus as they judge if we are heading for recession, when rate cuts are happening and whether we will have a soft landing. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
12/02/202419 minutes 51 seconds
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Year of the metals

This week's thematic podcast episode is all about metals. Ole S. Hansen, Head of commodity strategy, is the expert. He talks about the idea that 2024 could be the year of metals - especially gold, silver and copper are in focus. He discusses their performance so far, why it may be their year and how curious people can be invested in the sub-asset class. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
09/02/202426 minutes 20 seconds
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Has the March rate cut been cancelled?

With Charu Chanana in the studio, we leave the earnings season aside for a while and focus on the macro side of things.  We take a look at the US economy in the light of the very strong non-farm payroll report that came out Friday. We also discuss the Red Sea crisis and its implications for oil, freight rates and markets at large. Finally, we assess the financial situation in China and Australia. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
06/02/202431 minutes 29 seconds
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Tis the (earnings) season

This week has been teeming with earnings and many of the US mastodons as well as Europe's largest company has reported. Therefore, Peter Garnry is once again in the studio to give us an overview of what has happened and what it means for investors and traders across the globe. It's earnings, earnings, earnings. This episode comes out a little bit later than usual, so we're able to catch the freshest earnings from the US region. We hope you still like it and look forward to listen in. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
02/02/202432 minutes 57 seconds
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The biggest earnings week is here

This week is the biggest during this earnings season, as many of the US tech mastodons will report. Therefore, Peter Garnry is in the studio. Before touching on this exciting week, he and Søren Otto also discuss last week's earnings as well as the key figures that come out of the US. The two also talk about the Chinese real estate company Evergrande and the important central bank meetings that also takes places in the coming week.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Normalise
30/01/202423 minutes
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Earnings are heating up

In this week's thematic episode, we're talking earnings season with Peter Garnry, Head of equity strategy. We talk about earnings seasons in general and what Garnry pays attention to when reading an earnings report. He also gives his view on some of the biggest reports this week and looks ahead to the coming week, where earnings will roll in. Finally, we talk about how investors can get going by integrating earnings seasons into their investment strategy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
26/01/202428 minutes 55 seconds
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Central banks and key figures run the show

In today's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Charu Chanana, Market Strategist and Head of FX strategy is the expert. Together with Søren Otto, she provides an overview of the financial status in important financial regions. First, she talks about the US and how a variety of factors may impact the timing and pacing of rate cutes by the FED (1.02). She also gives a brief overview of the European situation and how the ECB meeting this week may affect that (6.45), before a short status on the earnings season (9.49). Moving East, Chanana gives a brief take on China's challenges (11.30), before zeroing in on Japan and the BOJ's approach to interest rates (14.30). Finally, she considers how that may affect forex and Japanese equities (22.02). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an acc
23/01/202427 minutes 57 seconds
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Sticking the landing: what a normalising yield curve means for bond investors

In the first episode of our thematic podcast, we zero in yield curve normalisation. The expert in the studio is Head of fixed income strategy, Althea Spinozzi. She talks about how the yield curve is bound to normalise and how that may look depending on whether we see a soft or hard landing - or what she refers to as a 70's landing. She also takes the temperature on both sovereign and corporate bonds to consider the risk and return pictures for the fixed income asset class. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
19/01/202423 minutes 22 seconds
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Uncertainty is the name of the game

In today's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto and Ole S. Hansen discuss the conflicting CPI and PPI numbers that came out last week and their potential impact on the markets' expectations to rate cuts through the year (01.57). They then talk about the new SEC-approved Bitcoin ETFs (04.48) followed by a brief update on the Taiwan election (9.36). Friday, the banks kicked of the earnings season, which is only going to pick up pace over the next weeks (10.51). As Ole is our commodities expert, we take the temperature on different commodities, starting with gas (12.50), followed by our (15.55), grain (17.36). We end with a discussion about price conviction and what commodities look to have a tough year and which may increase in value in 2024. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click
16/01/202423 minutes 13 seconds
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Fixed-income: Fair value, inflation report and our outlook for bonds

This is the first fixed-income episode of the year and we are talking about the negative start to the year with rising bond yields and one US rate cut almost being priced out already. We also talk about whether the US 10-year yield here at 4% is attractive and what the risks are and especially in the context of tomorrow's US inflation report. We also talk about our recently published quarterly outlook where we highlighted three scenarios in the economy and how these scenarios will impact the yield curve, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
10/01/202416 minutes 26 seconds
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Macro and FX: Upcoming US CPI figures, USD momentum, and musings on China

In today's episode we talk about Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls and how to read the report while looking ahead to this week's US macro figures across NFIB small business optimism index, initial jobless claims and the important inflation report on Thursday. We also talk about the USD rebound this year and whether momentum can continue and touches on levels in USDJPY and EURUSD. Finally, we touch on the weak sentiment in China and the big batch of Chinese macro data coming out before ending the week with a lot of tensions around the Taiwan election, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
08/01/202417 minutes 39 seconds
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Commodities: Crude oil and gold in focus as a new year begins

In today's episode we discuss the developments in the Middle East and how it is impacting crude oil, gold given the expected lower policy rate this year and inflation expectations generally trending down, and finally a perspective on the grains sector that had a terrible 2023, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
04/01/202417 minutes 14 seconds
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Equities: What to expect in 2024?

In the first episode of the year we discuss what to expect in equities. We touch on different topics ranging from BYD overtaking Tesla as the largest EV maker in the world, earnings growth expectations and whether they are realistic, the AI hype and whether it can continue, what we like the most in developed market equities, thoughts on China and India, and whether we can expect a recession or not, with Søren Otto Simonsen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
03/01/202417 minutes 11 seconds
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Macro and FX: Watch USD sentiment and BoJ hints on rate policy

This is the last macro episode before the holiday season. We talk about the upcoming macro figures this week and why they might matter less given the Fed pivot on policy rates. The USD weakening last week and we discuss whether the trend will continue into in the year. Finally, we focus on BoJ rate decision tomorrow with expectations looking for no change but markets are certain that BoJ will hint of maybe leaving negative interest rates behind at the January meeting, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
18/12/202314 minutes 22 seconds
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Special Edition: The best outrageous prediction for 2024 by our clients

In this episode we discuss what we have chosen to be the best outrageous prediction for 2024 sent to us by our clients at Saxo. The outrageous prediction is simply that government abandons the GDP measure as the yardstick for progress and how to steer the economy. Given that rising GDP has been the key policy objective by developed countries since the Great Depression this would truly be an outrageous prediction. We discuss this outrageous idea and the problems with GDP in a greater macroeconomic context, with Peter Garnry and Steen Jakobsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
14/12/202319 minutes 20 seconds
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Fixed-income: Where are we now, surprises in 2023, and what to expect in 2024

This is likely the last podcast on fixed income this year so we take a look at the current situation with rate decisions this week from the Fed, ECB and BoE. We also go through the key events and performances across bonds in 2023 with high yield bonds and the Austrian 100-year bond being some of the biggest surprises. Finally, we talk about what to expect in bonds next year as the market has fixed its expectations on lower inflation and lower policy rates, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
12/12/202319 minutes 52 seconds
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Macro and FX: Will central banks, inflation, and PMIs deliver fireworks?

This week is crucial for markets given the big moves last week across gold and JPY with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday supporting the soft landing narrative. Tomorrow, the US inflation report will set the stage for the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the key focus is still on services inflation. On Thursday, ECB and BoE will deliver rate decisions and Friday will end the week with key PMI figures across the Eurozone, UK and the US. Central banks will not keep rates so the market will focus on the details in the communication and it feels that markets are sensitive to changes in the narrative around monetary policy and inflation so this week could become more volatile than expected, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
11/12/202316 minutes 12 seconds
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Equities: YTD performance, rate cuts pricing, and Adobe earnings

Today we discuss equity market performance across country indices and thematic baskets highlighting Nasdaq 100 as the big winner together with semiconductors and cyber security. We also talk about the equal weighted performance between US and European equities which has not been that bad after all for Europe. We also discuss the current policy rate cuts priced in markets and how for now they are viewed as a positive thing but that it could quickly change. Finally, we flag upcoming earnings releases the next week from Lululemon, Oracle, and Adobe, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
06/12/202316 minutes 27 seconds
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Special Edition: Saxo’s Outrageous Predictions 2024

Link to our publication -&gt; Outrageous Predictions 2024: The end of the road It is the time of year when Saxo releases its Outrageous Predictions. For 2024 our Outrageous Predictions are titled The end of the road building on the idea, that the world is set for a very different journey than the calm environment post the pandemic with little geopolitical risks, stable technology backdrop, low inflation, and low interest rates. Three our outrageous predictions are 1) With oil at $150, Saudis buy the Champion League franchise, 2) generative AI deepfake triggers a national security crisis, and 3) Robert F. Kennedy Jr wins the 2024 US presidential election. In the podcast, we discuss all of our outrageous predictions, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team <a href='https://
05/12/202330 minutes 25 seconds
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Macro and FX: Key macro data this week, the USD slide ended and gold is on the move

Last week's backdrop was shaped by Fed Waller's comments about rate hikes had ended and the market got into overdrive mode on those comments and soft inflation figures repricing bond yields lower across the curve. This week will be interesting with key macro figures across JOTLS job opening ISM Services tomorrow and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. The USD also finally turned around last week and gold spot was also reacting forcefully to the lower bond yields. Finally, with RBA rate decision coming up in Asia session tonight, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
04/12/202316 minutes 2 seconds
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Commodities: Mixed performance as peak rates gather momentum

Oil markets await the upcoming OPEC decision with the expectation to another production cut to bolster favourable conditions for oil markets. We also discuss the diverging performance across many commodities in November including coffee up 8% and US natural gas down 25% as the peak rate narrative sets in, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
30/11/202315 minutes 17 seconds
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Equities: Dangerous index concentration, cyber security stocks, and the wisdom of Charlie Munger

Today we reflect on the meteoric rise in the index weights of mega caps as a function of the generative AI hype this year pushing S&amp;P 500 index concentration to the highest recorded since 1991. The cyber security is a super interesting industry for many reasons that we go through in addition to our reflections on CrowdStrike earnings. Finally, we discuss the wisdom of the now late Charlie Munger and the influence he had on Warren Buffett and some of his key opinions on investing and why he did not like the accounting metric EBITDA , with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
29/11/202319 minutes 53 seconds
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Fixed-income: Biggest rally in US 10-year Treasuries since August 2011

Today we talk about government bond markets and whether market expectations are getting a bit ahead of themselves. Especially, the rally in UK Gilts market could be unsustainable given the underlying inflation and likely more fiscal stimulus next year. We also discuss yesterday's conflicting messages around ECB policy and the upcoming Eurozone CPIP report on Thursday. Finally, we discuss the US Treasury market that has rallied the most since August 2011 with the 10-year yield declining 60 bps, but the bigger question is whether the rally is sustainable, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
28/11/202313 minutes 43 seconds
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Macro and FX: Inflation week, PMI test in China, and USDJPY

After last week's quiet backdrop due to the US Thanksgiving holiday this week will drum up more energy with important inflation reports from the US, Eurozone, and Australia which will be important for the direction of the USD that have found itself increasingly in negative momentum. China has had so many false starts this year and this week we will get another PMI report that will show whether the recent stimulus actions by the Chinese government is moving economic activity. Finally, we talk about the USDJPY which seems to have reached a top and this narrative could be bolstered on a weaker than expected USD inflation report, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
27/11/202315 minutes 36 seconds
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Commodities: Will Santa deliver another golden gift?

Today we talk about the possibility of another Santa rally in gold and silver. The previous six years have had a strong December in those two precious metals - is the setup right again this year? The oil market is nervous with a tricky supply and demand situation with traders awaiting OPEC's next move. For all the weakness in China, Copper is still holding up pretty well and the recent moves from the Chinese government to support real estate developers and the economy could turn things around for copper. In addition, Chinese inventory of copper is at a rock-bottom low, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
23/11/202316 minutes 58 seconds
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Equities: Nvidia growth bonanza, earnings estimates, and the surge in nuclear power theme

We discuss four topics today. Nvidia's earnings were incredible strong blasting estimates but US export controls are upsetting and lowering the visibility of its Chinese business. The US economy is still expanding but slowing down while earnings estimates are coming down in Europe and S&amp;P 500 (ex. technology sector) which are at odds with a rallying equity market. Across equity themes the green transformation baskets are still under pressure while nuclear power and commodities are doing well. Finally, we talk about batteries with both Chinese based CATL and Swedish based Northvolt expecting to list next year, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
22/11/202312 minutes 47 seconds
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Fixed-income: What is fiscal dominance and why is it important?

Today's episode is about a concept called fiscal dominance which is when the fiscal policies begin to dominate the monetary policy. Under conditions of high debt levels and rising interest rates it can create a negative feedback loop in inflation and interest rates potentially leading to sustained negative real rates and fiscal repression. We also talk about yesterday's 20-year Treasury auction and how the market response might indicate that the market is pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
21/11/202320 minutes 2 seconds
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Macro and FX: Fed pivot hopes as USD continues to slide

The USD continues to weaken with the market betting on a Fed pivot as inflation cooled more than expected last week and more indicators are suggesting the US economy is slowing down. We also cover FOMC Minutes, initial jobless claims, and Black Friday. In Europe, this week is going to be a key test of the turnaround narrative with fresh PMI figures and IFO survey, while we also keeping an eye on UK budget and Riksbank. Finally, in Asia FX traders should have a focus on RBA Minutes and the stabilisation/strengthening of the Chinese Yuan, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
20/11/202317 minutes 12 seconds
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Commodities: Silver comeback, watch OPEC as crude oil slides lower

In today’s commodities focused podcast we explain what has driven the sudden comeback for semi industrial metals, such as silver and platinum. The current negative momentum in crude oil carrying the risk of an overshoot to the downside ahead of the November 26 OPEC meeting. Finally a look at realized gross roll yields in commodities, which sectors are contributing the most and how returns compare with recent history. With Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
16/11/202316 minutes 48 seconds
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Equities: Year-end rally, inflation, thematic winners, US consumer and Nvidia monster earnings

Today we discuss yesterday's small positive surprise on US October inflation that sent bond and equities soaring with Nasdaq 100 on a trajectory to set a new closing high for the year. We also go through which equity themes responded the most positive to lower interest rates, and also the recent reading on the US consumer based on earnings results from Target and Home Depot. Finally, we go over recent earnings and the most important earnings to watch over the next week including the important Nvidia earnings next Tuesday, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
15/11/202316 minutes 9 seconds
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Options: How to take advantage of options

Today we discuss options and how investors and traders can use them. We go through an example on getting long exposure to Novo Nordisk, alternative entry strategies selling in-the-money puts, creating recurring income from selling covered call options on stocks in the portfolio, zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options, and finally how maybe not to use options around earnings releases, with Koen Hoorelbeke and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
15/11/202320 minutes 6 seconds
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Fixed-income: Inflation expectations, views on yields, and Moody’s US rating outlook

While today's US inflation report will move markets and be important the longer term importance will come from inflation expectations which are all on the rise. In today's podcast we also talk about our views on bond yields given the market's pricing of the Fed Funds Rate a couple of years out and why we still like the barbell strategy. Finally, we discuss Moody's change of the US rating outlook from stable to negative over the weekend and why it matters for credit bonds from Microsoft and Johnson &amp; Johnson , with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
14/11/202317 minutes 13 seconds
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Commodities: Crude oil capitulation, the floor in gold, and roaring softs

In today's episode we discuss the recent plunge in crude oil which is definitely not part of the OPEC+ plan, the correction in gold following a strong period for equities, and finally we talk about the roaring prices in soft commodities due to extreme weather patterns, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
09/11/202316 minutes 33 seconds
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Equities: EVs and oil demand, Recession or not, Adyen Investor Day

Today we discuss 1) battery electric vehicles deliveries in Q3 and how it relates to Brent crude being down 18% from its recent peak, 2) is a recession finally coming after great delay? and 3) the Adyen Investor Day tonight European time as an important event for the payments industry, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
08/11/202317 minutes 35 seconds
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Fixed-income: The present opportunities in corporate bonds

In today's episode we talk about corporate bonds in USD and EUR taking a look at the historically high bond yields and investment grade vs high-yield spread. We also take a look at performance across the different corporate bond segments and zoom in on some individual names such as Leonardo and 3M, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
07/11/202318 minutes 38 seconds
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Macro and FX: Weaker USD, China data, and RBA rate decision

In today's podcast we discuss the weaker USD on the back of the big risk-on move across markets last week, and whether the lower long-end US bond yields in fact cancel out a bit of Powell's remarks last week. We also discuss Bank of Japan and JPY, China data this week and the lack of growth revive, and finally tomorrow RBA rate decision, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
06/11/202317 minutes 24 seconds
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Commodities: Special edition with WisdomTree

In this week's extended commodity focused podcast we welcome Nitesh Shah, head of commodities research at WisdomTree, Europe's largest commodity ETP provider. First we discuss the pros and cons of investing in commodity ETPs vs companies, and what to be aware of. We move on to having a broad discussion about the outlook for key commodities. Nitesh gives his view on China and why he is cautiously optimistic about the demand outlook. Also the green arms race and its impact on transition metals and how investors gain exposure to these green metals, with Nitesh Shah and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
03/11/202343 minutes 26 seconds
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Equities: Key earnings, green transformation meltdown, and Q3 earnings status

Today we discuss three things. Earnings expected tomorrow from Apple, Novo Nordisk, and Fortinet. The green transformation meltdown that just continues every month with Orsted as the key example today down 16%. Finally, we discuss the earnings season and the surprises from US technology and European companies, with Oskar Bernhardtsen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
01/11/202317 minutes 30 seconds
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Fixed-income: A barbell strategy and three central banks

Today we talk about the three major central bank rate decisions this week (BoJ, Fed, and BoE) and how the bond market is pricing policy rate trajectory long-term in the US and Europe. we also explain the barbell strategy as one way to approach the bond market these days, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
31/10/202317 minutes 17 seconds
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Macro and FX: Will BoJ allow government bond yields to rise further?

It is a big week for central banks with rate decisions from Bank of Japan, the Fed, and Bank of England. In all cases, the central banks are expected make no changes to their policy rate, but Bank of Japan might tweak their yield-curve-control allowing the Japanese government bond yields to rise above 1%; the ceiling on Japanese bond yields was raised back in July by 0.5%-points. We also talk about the UK economy where inflation is still running hot, Eurozone inflation figures, and lastly the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
30/10/202317 minutes 30 seconds
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Commodities: Gold defies rising bond yields, but why?

Today we talk about rising gold prices despite rising yields in a move that smells of investors seeking hedging for a financial system in which something could soon break due to rising bond yields. We also talk about the oil market and how it is perceiving supply disruptions amid the escalating war between Hamas and Israel. Finally, we touch on the strong gains in soft commodities such as orange juice, cocoa touching a 44-year high, and sugar touching a 12-year high, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
26/10/202315 minutes 41 seconds
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Equities: Q3 earnings, China restart, and the robust economy

Today we discuss the Q3 earnings season and in particularly earnings yesterday from Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) with Microsoft being the big winner according to investors as the cloud business grew faster than estimated at 24% y/y while Google's cloud business disappointed. On a positive note, advertising revenue growth from both Google and Snap suggest that companies remain positive on their outlook for the economy. In China, Xi Jinping visited the PBoC for the first during his leadership and new economic aid measures are being launched, but the market is still not buying the turnaround case on China. Finally, we talk about the recent economic figures confirming a robust US economy and early signs that Europe's economy might be turning around, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to
25/10/202315 minutes 43 seconds
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Fixed-income: ECB pause, Treasury auctions, and yield curve positioning

The ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate on Thursday but the room for maneuver is tight for the ECB with the European economy in contraction and inflation remaining stubbornly high. Add to this rising US bond yields, potential tweak to BoJ yield-curve-control and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the ECB is in pause mode it it not a pleasant one. We also discuss this week's Treasury auctions for clues about positioning of bond investors on the yield curve and with recent weak Treasury auctions this week's auction could prove important. Finally, we discuss the different options investors have on the US yield curve depending on portfolio objectives, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
24/10/202318 minutes 33 seconds
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Macro and FX: USD strength to get tested

The US economy has been the big positive this year defying every forecast but can this exceptional run in the US economy continue? We discuss that and also what this week's US GDP and PCE reports could mean for the USD. In today's podcast we also discuss carry trades in CHF and MXN, and the upcoming ECB rate decision on Thursday which is expected to be a non-event. UK jobs report is out tomorrow ahead of next week's BoE meeting. Finally, we talk about the Australian economy and the upcoming inflation report and how it could move the AUD, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
23/10/202317 minutes
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Commodities: Gold likes peak rates and is the oil market running out of steam?

Falling bond yields the past week and the market positioning itself for 'peak rates' have seen gold bid. We discuss the different aspect of why gold could extend its momentum and what to look out for. The terrible developments in the Middle East have also pushed the oil market into a more volatile situation but still limited upside from here due to spare production capacity. In natural gas we of course discuss the latest developments including the leak on the Baltic natural gas pipeline, and finally we discuss crops from soybean and wheat that are seeing weak prices due to stronger production from major suppliers, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
12/10/202318 minutes 33 seconds
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Equities: Is the mojo back? Novo Nordisk keeps surprising and Tesla earnings showdown

A lot of action has come back in equities with the latest move lower in the US 10-year yield following geopolitical events in the Middle East pushing equities higher again. We also debate the 'higher for longer' narrative and whether the backdrop for equities is actually okay given the US economic strength. We also talk about Novo Nordisk that again has released another very positive trial data now related to kidney failure sending its shares higher while the world's largest dialysis provider Fresenius Medical Care has seen its share tumble as much as 24%. Finally, we go through the upcoming earnings on Friday from US banks such as JPMorgan Chase and next week's earnings from Tesla, ASML, Netflix, and American Express. Especially Tesla earnings will be important for sentiment in equities and the latest price cuts may be a warning of weakening demand for electric vehicles, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call an
11/10/202319 minutes 52 seconds
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Fixed-income: The uptrend in bond yields remains, watch our for the BTP-Bund spread

The US bond market reaction to events in Israel over the weekend was delayed because of yesterday's closed US markets, but today bond trading has resumed and the initial reaction was lower bond yields. However, the longer end US bond yields have already come back higher again so the uptrend in bond yields remain intact. In today's episode we reiterate our call for staying in the short end of the yield curve or short-term high quality investment grade corporate bonds. Finally, we talk about the widening BTP-Bund spread and what it means for Italy and ECB rate policy, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
10/10/202315 minutes 48 seconds
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Macro and FX: Potentially a defining moment in the Middle East

We are coming into this new week after a horrible weekend with geopolitical risks rising after Hamas' attack on Israel. The initial market reaction has been equities lower (-0.6%), Brent crude higher (+3.3%), gold and USD spot are also bid. But the medium term outcome both across markets and geopolitics will come down to how Israel responses as the spotlight is pointing at Iran as a supporting actor in Hamas' planning. In any case, the weekend's attacks could be a defining moment for the Middle East region. Across equity themes we expect logistics, defence, and cyber security stocks to be bid. Today's podcast is not only about geopolitics and we do discuss the US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday and the weak consumption figures coming out of China during the Golden week holiday, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a href='http:
09/10/202316 minutes 7 seconds
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Equities: Mike Tyson moment, Birkenstock IPO, Q3 earnings in focus

We are back with another episode on equities and with US bond yields galloping higher equities are under pressure. We talk about ways investors can reduce risk and what sectors or themes make sense under the pressure from higher interest rates. Then we talk about the Birkenstock IPO scheduled for pricing on Tuesday and first day of trading on Wednesday. The valuation of Birkenstock has actually gone up since the roadshow started as investors are recognising the strong brand and the upside potential from direct-to-consumer. Finally, we talk about the first batch of Q3 earnings releases next week with a focus on PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and JPMorgan Chase, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
04/10/202318 minutes 7 seconds
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Spiking US long yields a dangerous moment for markets

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we quickly discuss the dynamics driving the spike higher in long US treasury yields (and yields around the world).  This sharp rise in real yields at the long end of the curve to remarkable new highs is creating a significant danger moment for markets. Investors should move to protect their portfolios. Here is a chart deck supporting some key points from the podcast and more.  The Saxo Q4 Quarterly Outlook. 
04/10/202312 minutes 31 seconds
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Fixed-income: Keep it short if you think about bonds

We back with another episode of the Saxo Market Call following a few missed episodes. In today's episode we cover what is going on in fixed-income markets which are essentially driving everything in markets these days. We argue staying in short duration bonds across inflation-linkers, corporate quality and safe-haven due to uncertainty over timing of 'peak rates' and the outlook for a potential stagflation, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
03/10/202316 minutes 35 seconds
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Fixed-income: How much higher can bond yields go?

In today's episode covering fixed-income we aim to answer the crucial question of how much higher bond yields can go given the latest move higher in the US 10-year yield putting pressure on equities. If energy prices remain bullish and economic data continues to look solid then the US 10-year yield could reach the 5-5.25%. In the case of weakening economic data and lower inflation the narrative in bonds could quickly turn on its head. We also talk about timing and bond carry to understand the dynamics of investing in bonds. Finally, we provide some example of credit bonds for those investors seeking high bond yields with short maturity and high credit quality, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
26/09/202316 minutes 50 seconds
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Macro and FX: Can the higher for longer narrative continue?

Last week ended with both equities and bonds lower following the Fed's hawkish message with rates staying higher for longer to deal with inflation and the strong economy which lifted the longer end of the US yield curve. This week key event risks to monitor are the UAW wage negotiations, gasoline prices and more jitter around a potential US government shutdown. US consumer confidence figures tomorrow are also key to track and on Friday the market will get the latest PCE inflation data. Across the Atlantic in Europe, the market will get Eurozone lending survey on Wednesday and the latest inflation figures from Wednesday to Friday. Finally, we talk about China and how Saxo's clients in the APAC region have positioned themselves for a rebound in the Chinese economy through a net positive positioning in Hong Kong equities, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home
25/09/202318 minutes 36 seconds
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Commodities: What does a Fed soft landing mean for commodities?

In today's podcast on commodities we discuss the FOMC rate decision and what the Fed's soft landing outlook means for commodities. We discuss everything from the opportunities in gold as a hedge against monetary policy mistakes, tightness in energy markets, downside pressure in copper due to rising copper inventories, and recent developments in the agriculture sector, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
21/09/202317 minutes 46 seconds
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Equities: Red flags in IPOs, low volatility in US equities, and earnings to watch

With the market waiting for central bank rate decisions this week we take a step back and zoom in other parts of the equity market. We discuss the several red flags in the Instacart IPO and the extremely elevated forward valuation of Arm which is three times that of the Nasdaq 100. Realized volatility has lately been very low in the US equity market and investors might begin considering adding some hedges to their portfolio which can be done in different ways, and finally we discuss the three most important earnings releases next week from Micron Technology, H&amp;M, and Nike, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
20/09/202315 minutes 42 seconds
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Fixed-income: The US 10-year yield is on the loose

The US 10-year yield is breaking on a combination of improved economic activity in the US since May and recently a rally in oil lifting energy prices and inflation expectations. We talk about the upside and downside case on bonds, and finally we talk about interest rates in Europe and why higher bond yields in Europe are sending a different signal than in the US, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
19/09/202315 minutes 52 seconds
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Macro and FX: Central banks bonanza this week

A big week ahead for financial markets with central bank decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ with the market expecting no change from the Fed and BoJ, while BoE is expected to follow the ECB decision from last week hiking 25 bps. The economic landscape is getting increasingly difficult for central banks with the recent run-up in energy prices across both oil markets and uranium lifting inflation expectations and bond yields. In this podcast, we talk about the evolving economic landscape in the context of this week's major central bank decision. The key for investors will be the details in the forward-looking language and forecasts rather than the actual decision, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
18/09/202317 minutes 14 seconds
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Commodities: Oil rally raises stagflation risks and yuan’s correlation to copper

Brent crude is marching on as Saudi Arabia keeps the oil market tight raising the risks of stagflation in both Europe and the US. Will the current oil price curtail demand and will China begin tapping into its reserves? Copper has recently been supported by China's efforts to strengthen the yuan. We also talk about how copper is still structurally attractive giving the ongoing electrification, EV adoption and China stimulus. Finally, we go through the key movers in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
14/09/202317 minutes 17 seconds
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Equities: Energy on the move, Europe’s ”EV war” with China, and FedEx earnings

Oil prices are moving higher on Saudi Arabia's oil production cuts. This is naturally adding tailwinds to energy stocks which are quickly catching up with the rest of the global equity market. We discuss energy stocks and their attractive valuations. The market for electric vehicles is being flooded with cheap Chinese EVs to a degree where the EU is now launching an investigation into Chinese subsidies for EVs lifting European carmakers and surpressing Chinese EV-makers. Finally, we talk about next week's earnings from FedEx will provide information on how the global economy and whether the outlook for global goods transportation is improving or not, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
13/09/202315 minutes 56 seconds
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Fixed-income: A hawkish pause from ECB and attractive risk-reward in bonds

In today's podcast on fixed-income we preview the ECB rate decision on Thursday on the back of a recent stagflation outlook from the EU Commission making the policy decision a difficult one. We argue for a hawkish pause with the potential move by the ECB to stop reinvestments into the PEPP facility. Based on a slowing economy and stagflation light outlook we go through why both European and US sovereign bonds have an attractive risk-reward ratio, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
12/09/202316 minutes 41 seconds
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Macro and FX: King Dollar, pressures on China, and will ECB hike?

In today's podcast on macro and FX we discuss the ongoing strength of USD which is a function of relative weakness in Europe and China, and to what extent the US inflation report on Wednesday will impact the USD trade. China has been in focus a lot lately as its real estate sector is in a deep crisis, but last week a ban of Apple's iPhones brought geopolitics back into focus. We also discuss what China's next potential policy move is to offset the recent weakness and how we should think about the weekend's G20 meeting with China's Xi Jinping not showing up. Finally, we discuss Europe's economy, inflation outlook and the tough decision for ECB on Thursday given the slowing growth and stubborn inflation, with Peter Garnry and Charu Chanana. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo</a
11/09/202318 minutes 59 seconds
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Commodities: Crude’s artificial tightness, uranium and gold in focus

In today's podcast on commodities with discuss the recent rise in oil prices driven by an artificial tightness and what it means for the oil industry but also the economy. Our nuclear power equity theme basket was the performance winner August and today we discuss the underlying drivers for uranium and the nuclear power industry, and finally we touch on gold and silver on which we are patiently bullish given our stagflation call, with Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
07/09/202317 minutes 25 seconds
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Equities: EV ecosystem, Adobe earnings, and AI washing

In today's podcast on equities we talk about the growing electric vehicles ecosystem of recycling and charging, Adobe's earnings Thursday next week which will be important for sentiment on AI-related stocks, and finally we talk about next week's IPO of Arm and whether this is potentially "AI washing", with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
06/09/202316 minutes 11 seconds
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Fixed-income: Peak rates and the impacts

In today's fixed income focused podcast we take a closer look at recent developments, especially the emerging focus on peak rates and its potential impact on yields and short-term rates. Also what are corporate bonds telling us, and finally we explain how the COT report for fixed income futures works and what drives the current record speculative short positions w/ Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen standing in for Althea Spinozzi  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
05/09/202316 minutes 45 seconds
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Macro and FX: Could soft landing hopes slow down USD rally?

First episode in our new podcast format with Charu Chanana talking about macroeconomic topics and currencies. We talk about Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls figures underpinning the soft landing narrative ahead of potential stagflation concerns later this year. We also talk about the USD rally and whether it could end with strength going into the direction of CNH and JPY. Finally, we discuss the central meeting this week from RBA (tomorrow) and Bank of Canada (Wednesday) which have very different tasks at their hands.     Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
04/09/202315 minutes 31 seconds
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Will US jobs report extend current momentum?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L6i4WN   - Markets are calm ahead of today's US August Nonfarm Payrolls report which is expected to show continuous job gains in the US economy. In today's podcast we discuss the positive week in global equities led by technology stocks, potential turnaround in the US fiscal impulse, galloping prices on rice and orange juice, and a stronger Chinese yuan as recent policy moves have strengthened the currency. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
01/09/202318 minutes 32 seconds
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’Peak rates’ narrative continues to underpin momentum

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3q2zG   - Momentum in equities is extending as 'peak rates' narrative gets stronger amid weakening macro data suggesting that tighter monetary policies are beginning to have an impact on the economy. We expect the ECB to go into a hawkish pause mode on policy rates and this thinking has got the market to bid up EURUSD in recent trading days. Momentum in gold is also responding well in recent weeks to the 'peak narrative' and elsewhere in commodities cocoa futures are approaching their highest price since early 2011. We also touch on earnings from Salesforce and UBS. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outr
31/08/202316 minutes 51 seconds
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Bad news is good news, or so the market thinks

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3UV7k   - Bad news was good news yesterday as significantly weaker than estimated US August consumer confidence and July JOLTS jobs opening pushed the US 10-year yield lower lifting equities, and especially the cyclical sectors such as semiconductors and carmakers. In currencies, the AUD is seeing the strongest bid and in commodity markets crude oil is still supported by tight markets. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
30/08/202310 minutes 48 seconds
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Chinese equity narrative turns to hope of a turnaround

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QYEMnq   - Risk-on sentiment continues this morning with a strong Chinese equity session seeing Hang Seng futures rallying 2%. We discuss the new positive sentiment on Chinese equities, but also the ongoing risks to the Chinese economy. We also talk about the recent headwinds for the USD and positioning in industrials metals. Finally, we cover the 3M lawsuit settlement over defective earplugs to the US military and the upcoming earnings today from HP and NIO. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
29/08/202317 minutes 11 seconds
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Volatility collapse post Jackson Hole as Powell delivers nothing

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hjv27   - Jackson Hole delivers nothing that changes the outlook leading to muted reactions across various markets except for a collapse in implied equity volatility (VIX). Chinese regulators have lowered trading costs today causing a rally in Chinese equities with Hang Seng futures up 1% after being up as much as 3.2% as the market has its eyes on the Chinese shadow banking system. In currencies speculative short positions on the USD are being reduced and in commodities we still observe broad-based selling due to worries over China. We also discuss the rising refinery margins on gasoline and diesel impacting costs of transportation. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.<
28/08/202317 minutes 20 seconds
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Market deflates with NVDA options premium. Beware new EU regulations!

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P9KAsU   - Today we look at the market turning tail badly yesterday and posting a bearish reversal after a gap opening higher. The action was sympathetic with the massive deflation in NVDA options premium as the gap higher in that company's stock on the company's results was entirely erased during yesterday's session. Elsewhere, we look at the USD resurgent ahead of a speech from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole, with ECB President Lagarde also set to peak. In fixed income, we note the continued elevation at the short end of the US treasury yield curve suggesting the market has priced in a higher-for-longer policy stance from the Fed. We note as well that today is the first day for major internet companies to face the EU's new Digital Services Act, with possibly huge implications. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy host
25/08/202318 minutes 50 seconds
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Nvidia smashes everything in sight.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ORhX22   - Today we look at Nvidia's results smashing everything in sight on results and guidance and offer some thoughts on what we missed in waxing so skeptical in yesterday's podcast, while still posing a few questions on whether its trajectory is sustainable. We also note the very weak Eurozone and UK PMI data, which helped engineer a steep slide in global yields and whipsawed currency markets. In commodities, the focus is on the resurgence in silver and the collapse in gas prices and surge in uranium prices. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Int
24/08/202324 minutes 58 seconds
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Who the heck is buying so many Nvidia GPU’s?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3YNlKCd   - Today we look at the wild swings in Nvidia shares ahead of that important company's earnings report after the close today, with much at stake as the company has a very high bar to clear in terms of results and guidance, given the share price. We take a look at some of the largest likely buyers of Nvidia and why their capital expenditures have not expanded in line with the expected surge in Nvidia revenues. Elsewhere, we continue to discuss what the Fed will hint at in this Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell. In commodities, we focus on copper and oil. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/MarketCall
23/08/202320 minutes 12 seconds
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Nvidia blasts higher ahead of earnings. What does Jackson Hole deliver?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/45C8m63   - Today we look at the strong resurgence in US equities yesterday, particularly in the most popular speculative names like Tesla and Nvidia, which jumped over 8% yesterday, trading close to the cycle highs just ahead of its earnings report after the close tomorrow. The strong resurgence unfolded despite US yields rising sharply, with the 10- and 30-year yields posting new 15-year and 12-year highs, respectively. We look at key upcoming Treasury auctions and what the Fed's Jackson Hole conference on Friday and into the weekend may be set to deliver in terms of policy hints. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/
22/08/202317 minutes 54 seconds
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Long US treasury yields perched at cycle highs

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P5e62S Today, we look at the start to a new week as China disappoints once again on soft-pedaling its approach to stimulus, weighing on risk sentiment in Asia. We also wrap up last week's rather dire action in the US and other equity markets as rising yields continue to pressure valuations. The week ahead features the biggest AI name of them all as Nvidia reports on Wednesday after the market close. On the macro data front we'll have a look at preliminary August PMI's incoming on Wednesday, while the bigger focus rolls into view with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium up on Friday and into the weekend. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
21/08/202319 minutes 41 seconds
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Darker clouds on the horizon

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/epMS6   - Risk-off sentiment continues in markets as worries over the Chinese economy intensify with the latest news being that Chinese property developer Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US. The Chinese shadow banking system is likely galloping towards a significant restructuring event. In addition to Chinese weakness big moves in the long end of the US yield curve are also putting pressure on risky assets. We also talk about Nvidia's earnings next and the negative sentiment across commodity markets. In today's On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by ASh
18/08/202313 minutes 53 seconds
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FOMC Minutes and ugly JGB auction spook investors

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/diEK5   - The weakness in equities continues with China's economic uncertainty being one driver and the FOMC Minutes yesterday another driver as they showed that the Fed still views inflation risks to be high and that rates will stay higher for longer. We also cover the ugly 20-year JGB auction that together with the FOMC Minutes took interest rates higher globally. In commodities we focus on copper and the general outflows in ETFs tracking commodities. Finally, we discuss terrible first-half results from European payment company Adyen and Orsted price momentum that is looking very ugly together with the rest of the green transformation segment. In today's On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.
17/08/202317 minutes 34 seconds
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If you are not watching China, you are not paying attention

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/flR34   - Significant risk-off session yesterday with S&amp;P 500 futures taking out the trading ranges of the prior two trading sessions as Fitch warned of US banking downgrade including JPMorgan Chase and strong US retail sales lifted bets for one more US rate hike. But outside US equity markets focus is increasingly on China with another company missing payments and worries over the shadow banking system in China. In commodities we talk about weak crude oil causing energy stocks to be the worst performers yesterday and gold that did not like the US retail sales report. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
16/08/202311 minutes 30 seconds
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Chinese weakness reverberates through markets

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/uJUW4   - Equities rebounded yesterday with Nvidia shares leading the rebound, but equity futures are already turning around again with more weakness coming out of China forcing the PBoC to cut several key monetary policy rates.  Today we highlight inflation linkers in the US and also talk about the biggest outflow in ultra long-term US Treasuries in over a year. On commodities we talk about bids in copper despite Chinese weakness, gold weakness as real yields are increasing, and finally how grains futures have reacted to yesterday's US crops condition report. We also touch on Home Depot earnings expected to be released before the US market opens. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.saxo/ins
15/08/202319 minutes 31 seconds
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New cracks in China’s real estate market continue to weigh on markets

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/dqNTY   - Equity markets ended last week on a weak footing which has continued this Monday as Country Garden, China's largest real estate developer, missed coupons on some of its high-yielding investment products setting off fresh nervousness among investors. Speculators have cut positions in USD but increased their short positions on bonds highlighting that investors are betting on higher interest rates across the entire curve. In commodities traders are shredding exposure in metals and agriculture while holding on to their long positions in energy on the recent move higher. On equities, we cover Exor's new 15% stake in Philips, Nvidia's weakness on Friday, and the new bid for a takeover of US Steel. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team <a href='http
14/08/202312 minutes 35 seconds
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US inflation review, equities during stagflation, and gold weakness

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/ejmuO   - Yesterday's US July CPI report was a non-event for the market. We discuss how the more stickier part of the inflation basket remains elevated and well above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. We also discuss equity returns during stagflation, which is our new big macro call, and what it means for equity sector returns. The high short-term bond yields continue to act as headwinds for gold and wheat is struggling to find bids looking for the WASDE report for direction. Finally, we talk about a major acquisition in the US luxury industry, Alibaba's strong Q2 results, and ending on talking about next week's earnings releases. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/M
11/08/202317 minutes 51 seconds
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Our stagflation light call explained

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/inqJ8   - The AI rally with Nvidia at its center is showing cracks with our bubble stocks basket down 13% this month and Nvidia shares breaking down technically yesterday. In today's episode we have also invited our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen to talk in more details about his big call that the economy will enter a stagflation light environment. We also touch on today's US July CPI report and what it means for bonds, the big move yesterday in natural gas due potential Australian LNG supply risks and finally we talk earnings from Novo Nordisk, Siemens, and Disney. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Steen Jakobsen on macro, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here
10/08/202327 minutes 14 seconds
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Will US CPI report accelerate bets on rate cuts?

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/lzC57   - Today we discuss the possibility of stagflation in the years to come as our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jacobsen laid out the arguments for why such a scenario could play out. In daily grind of financial markets we discuss tomorrow's US July CPI report which is expecting to see another month of core CPI at 0.2% m/m. If US inflation continues to ease it could mark the peak in the Fed Funds Rate and accelerate bets on rate cuts next year. We also discuss the troubles at WeWork, oil markets, Novo Nordisk's 17% rally yesterday on good Wegocy trial data on heart risk, and the clarification from the Italian government on the new extra bank tax. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a hre
09/08/202318 minutes 6 seconds
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Weak Chinese data jolt markets with fresh risk-off sentiment

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hnrHW   - Risk-off sentiment is coming back into markets today after disappointing July export figures from China confirming the weakness in the global manufacturing sector and risks to the global economy in the later part of the year. Equity futures are headed lower but in a bigger context still not showing signs of an incoming recession, so the direction in the bond market will be crucial to watch in the coming weeks and months, and especially given the recent curve steepening in US Treasuries. Commodities have lately been doing well due to tight supplies across many key commodities including oil, but some weakness has arrived on the back of disappointing demand linked to China's lack of economic momentum. With the market now pricing six Fed rate cuts by January 2025 we expect gold to come back into focus in the coming months. Finally, we talk about the surprise extra tax on Italian banks, Glenc
08/08/202320 minutes 16 seconds
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Special Edition: Deep dive on trading the energy markets

Slide: https://bit.ly/450p3Ia   - In this Special Edition podcast, Saxo head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen takes us on a deep dive into the energy markets, with a rundown of supply and demand drivers, how balanced the market is these days, what the forward curve for oil tells us about the market, why refined products are as important to follow as crude oil itself, ways to trade the energy markets and much more. John J. Hardy hosts. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
28/07/202328 minutes 18 seconds
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Inscrutable Bank of Japan will have to surprise someone

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3OwkuA1   - Today we discuss the FOMC meeting, which brought the expected data dependency and a complete lack of new guidance, which has allowed the US dollar to continue lower as the VIX pushes back at the cycle lows. Meta reported strong results after the close, helping to take US S&amp;P 500 futures to new highs for the cycle. We look forward to the ECB meeting today and wonder whether Lagarde and company have already pre-empted any ability to surprise with the recent shift to less hawkish rhetoric. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, can only surprise the market as we are all quite uncertain on their course of action from here. In upcoming earnings, we spotlight Intel and note important inflation data up tomorrow on the macro calendar. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.saxo
27/07/202314 minutes 32 seconds
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Commodities breaking up. Fed policy as cycle end looms.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44C0Yrk   - Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we discuss the break higher in commodities that will likely eventually challenge the assumption of ongoing disinflation. We also ponder what today's FOMC meeting will bring relative to market expectations, and more importantly what the Fed is trying to accomplish as this cycle plays out into an eventual recession. We also look at the woes Europe faces here and the impossible task for the ECB. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
26/07/202318 minutes 34 seconds
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Disinflationary daydreaming

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rDYt9n   - Today we look at incoming data and how it will impact the yield curve, suspecting that weak data and the key Friday US PCE inflation release will see the market marking the forward Fed expectations lower, seeing this week's Fed rate hike as the last for the cycle, even if tomorrow's FOMC meeting will likely see the Fed maintaining optionality for the possibility of another hike. The ECB is certainly set for a more dovish turn, and we eye EURJPY downside risks in coming months. In earnings, we note the incoming semi-annual report from LVMH today and Google and Microsoft after the US close. This and more on today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/MarketCa
25/07/202317 minutes 31 seconds
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Germany July Manufacturing PMI sets up dovish ECB

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DtRVwN   - Today we wrap up last week's action and note that the market could be in for some consolidation after the recent blistering run higher, with key themes in focus, especially AI after NVDA posted an ugly week and Microsoft backed out all of its share gains from the Copilot AI story last week. It reports tomorrow, as does the luxury giant LVMH after luxury stocks posted an ugly week. Elsewhere, Germany's horrific initial July Manufacturing PMI print of 38.8 begs the question on why the ECB is even hiking this week. We can likely expect even more dovish shift from Lagarde and company as growth woes dominate the focus. A EURUSD reversal risk in in play this week if 1.1000 fails. This and more on today's pod, hosted by John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a hre
24/07/202315 minutes 46 seconds
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Big market break with big week ahead

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44WWADd   - Today we look at the ugly break lower in the US equity market after the Tesla and Netflix earnings spoiled the party, with a snappy move higher in treasury yields possibly adding to the negative tilt in sentiment.  We look at the technical implications of yesterday's break in the rally and note that the status of the US dollar bear market is suddenly in play as well after yesterday's punchy rally and the spike in yields. All of this with a critical week ahead as the FOMC, ECB and Bank of Japan lined up for next week. Today's pod features Kim Cramer Larsson on technical analysis, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo 
21/07/202317 minutes 23 seconds
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Tesla and Netflix chill market sentiment

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44VbCcD   - US equities tested new highs yesterday but closed mixed, with Tesla and especially Netflix earnings after the close chilling risk sentiment, with focus on Netflix's weak guidance and concerns for Tesla centered on the margin story as Musk forecast further price cuts on Tesla's cars, with fewer details than hoped on the Cybertruck. Elsewhere, we have a look at the strong euro versus weak JPY and CNH and wonder whether the ECB's recent dovish turn is prompted from the currency angle. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
20/07/202315 minutes 15 seconds
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Earnings season accelerates today with Tesla. GBP outperformance is history.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44NGKKU   - US equities ripped to new highs for the cycle as financials got a boost from more banks and financial services companies reporting, led by a huge advance in Charles Schwab on a strong earnings beat and guidance. But Microsoft stole the limelight, adding $150 billion in market cap in announcing the pricing for its new AI tools. Elsewhere, sterling was walloped by a softer than expected CPI report - does this spell the end of sterling's strong performance after a remarkable first half of the year? Today's pod features a run-through of the technical analysis outlook for key stocks, indices and gold with our technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson. Hosted by John J. Hardy.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an a
19/07/202317 minutes 26 seconds
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Will Tesla earnings support or shatter the complacent backdrop?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XYOzeo   - US equities closed at new cycle highs yesterday as financials recovered sharply after the prior day's sell-off. The first two major US regional banks are set to report earnings today. Elsewhere, commodities prices suffered a drawdown as China-linked sentiment remains soft. In the earnings overview, we wonder whether Tesla's earnings report could inject some volatility into the very complacent backdrop, as the calm ironically increases market fragility and risk to any news that doesn't fit with the narrative. This and much more in today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
18/07/202318 minutes 21 seconds
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Earnings season hits full stride after financials stumble

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pZ7bhT    - The equity market was unable to hold an extension of the steep rally on Friday, with financials leading the intrasession selling. Strong results from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo saw those shares gapping strongly higher on the open, but generally selling off thereafter. In FX, the USD backed up after a strong US University of Michigan sentiment report for July that boosted yields, but last week on balance saw a firm break lower in the USD's fortunes. In commodities, we focus on crude oil and the divergent and volatile grains markets. We also look at the week ahead in earning and macro risks and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click her
17/07/202313 minutes 56 seconds
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Big moves all around, if not in implied volatility.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44n5rhj   - The equity market rallied continued apace yesterday, encouraged by a drop in treasury yields all along the curve and benign US PPI data. Earnings season kicks off in earnest today and gathers pace next week - can companies deliver after the aggressive expansion of multiples over the last three months? In FX, we note that in trade-weighted terms, the Euro is at all time high (nominal effective terms according to ECB measure). We also note the rising anticipation that the Bank of Japan may have to tweak policy at its meeting in two weeks. Commodities have also been rocked by developments, where today we focus on crude oil, copper and silver. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a href='ht
14/07/202315 minutes 7 seconds
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The disinflationary no landing nirvana?

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hyW13   - Equities got the best of all worlds yesterday with US June inflation figures surprising to the downside painting a perfect picture of lower inflation, higher real disposable income, and no landing in the global economy (maybe even an acceleration?) leading to a US yield curve steepening with long bond yields declining. With animal spirits already running high this new setup took US equities to new highs for the cycle and the highest close in 15 months. We also cover the moves across other asset classes as the USD fell sharply and gold and silver rallied hard. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/MarketCall
13/07/202316 minutes 8 seconds
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A big test for US dollar and market narrative on today’s US CPI

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PR5uO8   - Equity sentiment continued to strengthen in Europe and US today, with Japan's equities under pressure from the recent sharp strengthening of the Japanese yen. A big test for USDJPY  and the US dollar in general over today's June US CPI data as the dollar index trades near the big range lows of this year. In equities, we break down why the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing should prove much ado about not-so-much in the near term and note that most of the upside in equities over the last quarter has been on multiple expansion more than anticipation of earnings growth. In fixed income, we note the extreme outperformance of junk debt this year and wonder when elevated US yields will begin to attract more assets into cash and short treasuries from equities. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. R
12/07/202320 minutes 39 seconds
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Nasdaq 100 rebalancing and big JPY short squeeze

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XJQVho   - Today we look at the market sentiment stabilizing overnight as China moved to extend support to the property market. With yields edging lower still yesterday, the JPY rally picked up further momentum - is that move chiefly positioning drive and will the US CPI data tomorrow offer support for USDJPY or accelerate its decline? We also discuss the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing that is set for next week and whether this will trigger notable volatility in especially the very largest cap US stocks. Elsewhere, we discuss UK yields dropping after mixed labor market and earnings data, gold making a bid at rallying through resistance and crude oil trading into range highs. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Te
11/07/202317 minutes 27 seconds
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Heavy stocks and bonds, heavy JPY crosses, heavy metals

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43k7th9   - Today we discuss the weak close to the week for equities on Friday after the official US jobs data came in far softer than the blowout ADP private payrolls numbers the prior day. Interestingly, while long US treasury yields remained elevated, the JPY strengthened the most of any major currency versus the US dollar - is this on overextended positioning? Elsewhere, we look at TSMC's better than feared preliminary results of the last quarter, look ahead to the start of earnings season later this week, talk metals in the commodities round up and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account w
10/07/202316 minutes 55 seconds
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Strong US data resets the narrative across markets

Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/439Lyco   - Today we discuss the strong US data yesterday, including a blowout June ADP payrolls growth number and strong June ISM Services survey print. The data blasted yields higher once again at the long end of the US yield curve, a move that markets found unsettling as it represents a tightening of financial conditions. We also discuss the very odd internals of yesterday's US equity market session and whether all corners of the market are "getting" the risk of a narrative reset: that the US economy may be reheating. In FX, we look at why the JPY strengthened, so unusual to see when US treasury yields are surging. In commodities, we discuss the conflicting forces hamstringing the market in a range and the crosswinds hitting gold as well. This and much more in today's pod, which features Pete
07/07/202325 minutes 9 seconds
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US 10-year yield on the move before the key US data releases

Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble Link to this episode's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rcubu5   - Today we note yesterday's break of key chart resistance in US 10-year yields and ponder the implications while noting it is critical to watch whether the break holds through the next couple of days of incoming US macro data, especially the jobs report tomorrow. We also take an extensive look at UK gilts and whether UK yields there will compete with returns on equities, as well as how much work the BoE has to do (or core inflation has to fall) to get real yields anywhere close to neutral. A look at the JPY move overnight (in conflict with developments in US treasury yields), the upcoming US economic data calendar and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Mar
06/07/202315 minutes 28 seconds
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Do any of the scenarios lead to tighter financial conditions?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PDCutb   - Today we look at a market that is waiting for incoming data, with the long end of the US yield curve in focus as we watch whether we get stronger data and a yield surge that may tighten financial conditions, or whether soft data plays as "bad news is bad news" rather than continuing to encourage the seemingly ever easier financial conditions of late. We also note fresh "fragmentation game" angles on signals out of China and the US looking to possibly at the loophole in its restrictions on Chinese access to AI, we discuss the incoming earnings season, important perspectives for bond investors as significantly positive coupons have dramatically shifted the risk/reward in bond investing and much more Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats
05/07/202317 minutes 50 seconds
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How quickly will EVs destroy crude oil demand?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DhGzMp   - Today we wrap global market developments as the US headed home early yesterday for today's market and national July 4 holiday. We also discuss the remarkable adoption curve of EV's in light of this week's impressive delivery figures from Tesla and others, especially the under-appreciated scale of two- and three-wheel vehicle production, and whether crude oil demand destruction will accelerate more steeply than currently anticipated. In fixed income, the focus remains on the remarkable inversions of global yield curves, with EU- and UK swap spreads indicating more pressure on rates to rise further than in the US. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team h
04/07/202317 minutes 29 seconds
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Quarter end sprint for stocks. Historic moves in grains.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CWCmNN   - Today we discuss the further rush of buying into month- and quarter-end on Friday that took the US S&amp;P 500 index to a new high for the cycle, with Japan following suit to open this week after a strong Tankan survey. A look at the liquidity conditions that are supporting the move of late as well and whether these are set to continue, with the next test for markets either from the long end of the yield curve (which has teased the upper range of late and will be watching the heavy data calendar this week) or in the strength or lack thereof in the upcoming earnings season. Elsewhere, we look at the most extreme relative moves in corn and soybeans in modern memory, crude oil, AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA meeting and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market
03/07/202312 minutes 56 seconds
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Is the narrative on the economy and interest rates about to change?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pyvWBh   - Today we question whether the treasury market's sharp reaction to yesterday's strong US weekly initial jobless claims and jump in yields reveals that the market is very poorly prepared for a change of the narrative: one that suggests the economy remains strong rather than heading toward a soft landing. All eyes on the long end of the US yield curve! If financial conditions are set to tighten and next week's data proves strong, the US dollar could be set for a significant further surge higher and volatility could pick up from the quite low levels of late. We also discuss ASML's drop, Nike's results, equity market valuations, grains and gold and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team <
30/06/202319 minutes 27 seconds
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What can blast us out of this low vol rut?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pq1Fog   - Today, we note volatility still stuck in a rut as the concerns of coming US export restrictions on AI-chips failed to get any traction yesterday. The US yield curve is frozen in place and we ponder what might change the dynamics and blast us out of this period of remarkable calm. In FX, the USD is firming, while sterling was sent lower by BoE rhetoric yesterday. We also look at gold, crude oil, incoming earnings and the macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
29/06/202317 minutes 7 seconds
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Is Nvidia set to hit an air pocket on new US export restrictions?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42WYm5O   - Today, our top story is the news that broke late yesterday suggesting the Biden administration may look at slapping new export restrictions on AI-related chips and how this casts a shadow on Nvidia's recent explosive share price rise. The news took Nvidia and AMD shares sharply back lower after the close yesterday. We delve into whether Nvidia's recent blowout quarter is in part due to panic buying from China ahead of anticipated restrictions and whether its longer term guidance is over-reliant on Chinese demand that may not be realized due to these restrictions. Elsewhere, we look at the latest moves in FX and commodities, where gold is under pressure near key support and crude oil is also languishing near cycle support. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market C
28/06/202321 minutes 31 seconds
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High flyers get big haircut, but fear levels very low.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44jjofR   - Today we look at another weak day for equities, with the selling concentrated in the mega-cap and AI-linked names after a Goldman downgrade of Tesla. Despite the extension of the sell-off, market fear measures remain very low. In FX, China puts up a fight against the yuan weakening trend. In corporate credit, we note an interesting turn for the worse in high yield relative to investment grade debt, noting the high nominal rates that less credit-worthy names will have to refinance at in this environment. We also preview debt-addled Walgreen Boots Alliance, which is reporting earnings today, as well as focusing on what to watch for in today's US data, particularly the June Consumer Confidence report up later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call
27/06/202316 minutes 22 seconds
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Bull market status teetering in places

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43Z2TFZ   - Today we discuss equity markets where the bull market status is teetering, and the weak internals in many themes and sectors in the US even as the headline advance has not yet reversed much of the recent large rally wave. We take a look at the limited impact from the kerfuffle in Russia at the weekend, note the importance of food prices, especially driven by wheat. We also offer some thoughts on where we stand with the AI theme, outline the incoming earnings reports for the week ahead, interesting stretched positioning in some currencies, and more. Today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an accoun
26/06/202317 minutes 28 seconds
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Perilous narrowness in US equity market. Bonds to crowd out stocks?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/431EFJT   - Today we discuss the strong return of AI-driven animal spirits in yesterday's US equity market session, as AI-linked names dragged the averages higher while most sectors and the average stock posted an unimpressive day. In FX, we note the inability of the Norwegian krone and pound sterling to get a boost from large rate hikes yesterday from Norges Bank and the BoE. Elsewhere, we wonder when strong bond yields might see bonds beginning to crowd out stock allocations, particularly in the UK. We also discuss the recent rally in grains and how to gain exposure to agriculture via agribusiness stocks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <
23/06/202317 minutes 55 seconds
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A weak market, but a VIX shrug. Norges Bank goes 50.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42XXv4G   - Today we look at another weak day for the US equity market, but note that the VIX continues to shrug off the soft risk sentiment, closing at a new cycle low yesterday. We cover the hefty menu of central banks meeting today, with the Norges Bank hiking 50 basis points (market was divided on what they would do) as we were recording the podcast. We also look at heavily inverted yield curves, whether the Bank of England can deliver sufficiently hawkish guidance today to clear the bar of expectations, stocks to watch, including in agribusiness as grain prices are soaring and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSign
22/06/202320 minutes 58 seconds
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Speculative pockets shine even on a down day

Link to slide deck:   https://bit.ly/3XhX43Y  - Today we note that, despite the first negative day in some time in the US market yesterday, pockets of pronounced strength were found in many speculative names. Our Global Risk Indicator also shows the scale of improvement in financial conditions of late and suggests that the speculative energy may have room to extend. In FX, we note the interesting market reception of another new cycle high in UK core CPI this morning, as the market wonders whether the Bailey Bank of England has the right stuff to deliver as much tightening as is currently priced into the forward curve. We also talk the wildly strong US housing starts number yesterday, earnings to watch today and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.saxo/insight
21/06/202317 minutes 8 seconds
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PBoC disappoints the market questioning stimulus pace

Link to slide deck: bit.ly/3PmO5wz   - The energy is quite low across markets outside the fixed-income market with a lot of action this week around BoE and upcoming UK macro figures including CPI. PBoC cut the key 5-year benchmark rate in China by 10 basis points but the market was looking for 15 basis points. Chinese equities were disappointed extending their selloff from yesterday adding fresh worries that China is more constrained that initially believed when it comes to backstop demand and lifting economic activity. We also discuss FedEx earnings which is scheduled for after the US market close. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and Peter Garnry on equities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - In
20/06/202315 minutes 53 seconds
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Liquidity fears have been the boy who cried wolf...so far

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/444wOMS   - Today we look at the market closing last week on a slight dip after the prior furious run higher. One issue that has failed to trigger any market turmoil of late has been the US Treasury rebuilding its reserves, possibly as liquidity "stored" in the Fed's repo facility may provide some offset, at least for now. Elsewhere, we take a look at the rapid repositioning unfolding in the grains market on supply concerns in part driven by El Nino, copper and crude oil, EU versus US real rates, a preview of the Bank of England meeting this week and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account wi
19/06/202315 minutes 3 seconds
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Hawkish ECB gets traction, especially as BoJ remains unmoved.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43J0fnE   - Today we break down the answers to our latest Listeners' Survey, with more discussion of your questions coming up next week. Today we look at the surprisingly hawkish ECB, which doubled down on its guidance for more tightening, particularly via sharp upward revisions to inflation and labor costs for coming years. This gave the euro plenty of traction for extending its rally, aided by a soft US jobless claims number and on the Bank of Japan failing to even hint at plans to tweak policy overnight. The yen is in a death spiral. Elsewhere, we look at what has  been a very strong month for the commodities complex, discuss Adobe's results and the very busy week ahead on the macro calendar with another bonanza of central banks. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates
16/06/202322 minutes 27 seconds
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FOMC’s hawkish hold pressurizes BoJ. Adobe faces big test.

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6     - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Nc0tg4   - Today we breakdown the FOMC's hawkish hold and the market's reaction to the upgrade of the outlook on the economy and higher dot plot projection for the Fed Funds rate for this year and the next two years as the Fed delivered a "higher for longer" message. We also preview the ECB and note that the long end of the US yield curve is the most critical, especially for pressure on the JPY, which has ratcheted dramatically higher ahead of a now critical meeting for the Bank of Japan. If yields continue higher, the BoJ must signal a willingness to tweak or risk further disorderly JPY declines. In stocks to watch, we note US homebuilder Lennar's stron
15/06/202318 minutes 9 seconds
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Market extends melt-up into today’s FOMC

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6  -    Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NdNI4W   - Today we look at the market continuing its melt-up into today's FOMC meeting after yesterday's benign CPI , which most believe will bring a pause and only slightly better than 50/50 odds for a final July hike, although further out the curve, the market is moderating its bets on Fed cuts and treasury yields rose all along the curve yesterday. Will the Fed pushback or deliver on market expectations? In fixed income, we focus on the 30-year US T-bond yield and the huge rise in UK gilt yields. In commodities, copper is teasing key levels, while gold is pushing on key supports in places as risk sentiment and yields are on the rise. In equit
14/06/202316 minutes 24 seconds
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Will the Fed’s third mandate be in play tomorrow?

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6 -     Link to slide deck for today's podcast: https://bit.ly/3Pc1lnA   - Today, we look at the market rally extending higher and verging on melt-up status. On that note, interesting to see whether the Fed's "third mandate" of financial conditions, or arguably the S&P 500, will play any role in its decision on whether to hike tomorrow, with most believing the Fed is set to pause and possibly hike in July. Of course, today's CPI will weigh as well. We also talk commodities after China's surprise rate cut, including copper, corn and uranium and note the AI-hype in individual equity names bordering on the absurd as seen in yesterday's Oracle earnings report and related headlines. This an more on tod
13/06/202321 minutes 6 seconds
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Can FOMC and BoJ pop the rapidly inflating bubble?

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6   - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43VKnxQ   - Today, we continue to discuss the building market bubble, with little sense of whether the FOMC and/or the BoJ this week will bring enough to the table to provide notable pushback. Regarding the FOMC, we wonder, given the March forecasts, why the Fed won't hike at both of the upcoming meetings. We also talk heavy treasury issuance this week, the energy outlook and recent rise in commodities, incoming earnings to watch this week and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Mark
12/06/202317 minutes 18 seconds
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A Tesla 0DTE circus today. Huge week ahead for global markets.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Cleu6k   - Today we look at the market rebound yesterday, though still one with a number of divergences we have recently noted. Tesla had a banner day and was administered a dose of rocket fuel after the close on GM announcing that it would join Tesla's EV super-charging network. Given that today is Friday, this could well drive a bonanza of volatility and heavy trading in Tesla shares on the impact of the weekly options going 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiry) today. In fixed income, we focus on upcoming US treasury issuance and the pricing at the front-end of the European yield curve. FX moves, an emphasis on the heavy calendar of event risks next week (US CPI, Fed, ECB, BoJ & more) and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market S
09/06/202314 minutes 51 seconds
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Strange brew: big megacap sell-off, stark divergences and lower VIX.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3oPzIGj   - Today, we look an even odder equity market session yesterday in the US than the prior day's session, as it featured another spike higher in value and small cap indices, while the broader market was mixed and megacap names, and particularly AI names, suffered a steep sell-off. This on a day that saw the VIX posting a new post-pandemic cycle low. In commodities, we focus on gold on the defensive after another central bank, this time the Bank of Canada, surprised hawkish. We also check in on natural gas, discuss diverging forward expectations curves for many central banks, note key stocks to watch, including a sudden jolt lower in Amazon, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.saxo/insight
08/06/202319 minutes 42 seconds
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A very calm surface hiding important developments?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NisSTc   - Today, we look at a remarkable US equity market session yesterday, which saw some underperforming sectors and themes performing extremely well while the broader market was very quiet. The sudden "calm" in markets here is reflected in the VIX dropping to its lowest level since before the pandemic breakout. We also look at the massive US treasury issuance set for the balance of this month and whether this will pinch liquidity and sentiment. We remark on 2-year EU yields and whether these are realistic, given further expected ECB hikes. In FX, focus on Bank of Canada today and whether it will prove the second central bank after the RBA to restart its tightening regime. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market S
07/06/202318 minutes 10 seconds
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Market gives Apple’s Vision Pro a thumbs down

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ne8get   - Today, we note that the US equity market rally looks remarkably extended after a more than 30% advance in the Nasdaq 100 year-to-date. We also offers some thoughts on, and look at the interesting market reaction to Apple's announcement of its Vision Pro "mixed reality" headset. In commodities, the focus is on the crude oil market after the weekend OPEC+ meeting and new cuts announced there, while we note the forward risks for grains on weather concerns and deteriorating crop condition for corn in the US. In FX, the RBA announced the second consecutive surprise hike and AUDUSD is trading at critical resistance. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here</
06/06/202321 minutes 1 second
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Oops - that wasn’t supposed to happen post-debt ceiling.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qfu4gO   - Today we discuss the market action yesterday possibly suggesting a "buy the fact" moment for risk appetite on the debt ceiling lifting after the US Senate signed on to the deal yesterday. This, after many, ourselves included, have fretted the impact of the coming blitz of Treasury issuance on liquidity. We also quantify what is coming, in terms of the pace of Treasury bill issuance and discuss the confusion around the speculative positioning in treasury markets - is the pain trade for higher or lower yields? Elsewhere, have ECB expectations come off too aggressively, what are we watching for in crude ahead of the OPEC+s meeting this weekend, some stocks to watch, including Tesla, and much more, including several answers to SMC listeners' questions in our most recent survey. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
02/06/202324 minutes 9 seconds
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AI names stumble. Concerns on liquidity after lifting of debt ceiling impasse.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3N6dzMZ   - Today, we discuss the steep consolidation in AI-related names after the recent huge surge, also noting the S&P 500 in complete limbo technically, possibly on volatility sellers continuing to bottle up the action. We also look at the winding down of debt ceiling concerns, which ironically could lead to liquidity pressures across markets as the US Treasury will need to rebuild its reserves. A look at crude oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, copper, grains, incoming earnings and sharp market reactions for Crowdstrike and Salesforce, important incoming macro data and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click
01/06/202321 minutes 49 seconds
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AI hype is faded and China slump adds to growth worries

Link to slide deck: Saxo Market Call slide deck   - Risk sentiment headed lower yesterday as the AI hype was faded by traders and the weaker sentiment extended overnight as China published weaker than estimated PMI figures for May adding fresh worries over global growth. In today's podcast we cover equity futures, Salesforce earnings, China's weaker growth, lower bond yields, the US debt ceiling deadline, strength in gold, and weaker across iron ore and copper. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
31/05/202318 minutes 3 seconds
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Extreme divergence in equity market internals over last week

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ILNoZJ   - Today, we note the extreme divergence in equity market themes over the last week that is a hidden development underneath the strong performance of the major US indices on Friday. We look at the moderate impact thus far of the debt ceiling agreement-in-principle reached at the weekend, discuss the strong earnings season and few interesting names set to report this week. Energy and the European natural gas market are in focus in commodities while we also try to gauge where we are in terms of timing an eventual recession with US yield-curve and consumer confidence survey indicators. This and more in today's, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo
30/05/202316 minutes 20 seconds
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Deep dive: Investing in commodities through futures and stocks.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q82UbL   - This special episode of the podcast features an in-depth view on how to invest in commodities, one of the more difficult to understand asset classes at first glance for the novice, whether using futures, equities and other exchange traded products. The podcast is hosted by Saxo Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy and features Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
29/05/202334 minutes 34 seconds
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US Treasury Yields turning the screws. Also: this is a Listeners’ Edition!

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IIo7PR   - Today we do a brief market wrap as US treasury yields continue to ratchet higher as a possible debt ceiling deal may be looming and as we ponder how that could alter the landscape. But the bulk of today's podcast is dedicated to the results from our latest Listener survey, rounding up the SMC listener's thoughts on where the US equity market, commodities and the US dollar are headed and addressing some of the many topics that our listeners thoughtfully forward. We'll round up some answers to more of these great questions in next Friday's podcast. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to ope
26/05/202335 minutes 51 seconds
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Nvidia and the AI bubble risk as its valuation nears $1 trillion

Latest Saxo Market Call Survey will be available until 1400 CET on May 25. If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts:  https://bit.ly/3OEFntn   - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IEHtoZ   -  Today we look at yesterday's session, which was mostly downbeat as US treasury yields continue to back up, but then with a huge change of tune in late trading on Nvidia results beating handily and guidance smashing expectations on company anticipating a bonanza of AI-related chip sales. We do a deep dive on the company's valuation and outlook and wonder, at 29.2 x sales (before the big jump after hours) whether the company's future growth can live up to the hype. Elsewhere, we look at another slide in copper prices, the performance of uranium prices and ETFs, key FX themes and much more
25/05/202326 minutes 9 seconds
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An ugly feeling about yesterday’s pivot

Latest Saxo Market Call Survey is now available! If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn   -  Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IH63FR   - Today we assess yesterday's market downdraft and some of the reasons it is giving us an uneasy feeling, particularly with unknown volatility risk from rampant speculation in short term options in the mix. The big mark-down in luxury stocks was also a key signal. As well, we break down massive core inflation surprise in the UK and what it might mean for sterling and gilts, the debt ceiling lessons from 2011 for the US treasury market, key stocks reporting earnings, including NVidia today and much more. Note that we are saving the deep dive podcast on commodities for later release. Stay tuned for that. Toda
24/05/202320 minutes 15 seconds
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Are equity investors missing what treasury investors see?

The latest Saxo Market Call Survey is now available! If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn  - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WwUirs   - Today we look at building tensions as US equities trade sideways at elevated levels for the cycle while US treasury yields rose once again to new highs since the March banking system turmoil. We wonder whether equity market investors are complacent on the risks of a liquidity pinch once the US debt ceiling issue is (presumably) resolved. We also take a look at Japanese and even Greek equities, two star-performing markets this year, the reaction to Zoom's earnings report, the upcoming RBNZ meeting, crude oil and gold and positioning and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commoditi
23/05/202321 minutes 27 seconds
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Debt ceiling talks a headline risk nuisance this week.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q5bWGh   - Today we discuss the collapse in the US debt ceiling talks on Friday, with little to guide us on what happens next, but with markets mostly in a complacent mood on the issue. We also look at China's partial ban on Chinese companies using US chip-maker Micron's products, upcoming earnings this week, including Nvidia, which has been bulled up on its links to powering the AI future. In commodities, the focus is on grains and other softs already seeing a possible impact from the shift to an El Nino climate pattern. Gold technicals also deserve a mention as higher us treasury yields pressure higher. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.
22/05/202316 minutes 8 seconds
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Debt ceiling soon solved? Careful what you wish for...

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pWMzGU   - Today is the second of our Saxo Market Call Listeners' Editions, prefaced with a brief market wrap from yesterday, which produced a strong rally extension in the US equity markets, supposedly on hopes that a debt ceiling deal is near, but also on benign economic data. With treasury yields also on the rise, it felt like the market expressing a belief in an improving economic outlook. On the debt ceiling issue, we caution that a solution could lead to a severe liquidity crunch as the US treasury rebuilds its reserves. The bulk of today's podcast is a look at listener questions from our survey last week. Stay tuned early next week for the next Saxo Market Call listener survey. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here
19/05/202327 minutes 3 seconds
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What shocks this market out of the 0DTE volatility dampener?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pJWL5o   - Today we ask whether it is the 0DTE phenomenon (zero-days-to-expiry in S&P 500 in particular) that has dampened volatility so extraordinarily of late and how long this phenomenon can continue to bottle up the market. We also take a look at US Retail helping to shock the USD stronger and push metals lower again, with gold taking out 2,000/ounce. Stocks to watch include Target and Walmart for more on the US consumer. The earnings outlook supporting European equities (including from Siemens), crude oil, the risk of a leg of stronger US dollar and much more on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account
17/05/202320 minutes 9 seconds
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Maximum confusion: market in a vice-grip of uncertainty

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42Y5HSX   - Today we highlight the enormous confusion and uncertainty in this market as elevated, but extremely rangebound markets are at odds with market pricing for an incoming recession and "the experts" have the most diverse set of opinions imaginable. Meanwhile, we get the latest extreme data points that don't provide any clarity: a wildly negative US May Empire Manufacturing survey after the strong April number and then a huge drop in UK payrolls in April that the market stumbled over and then largely ignored. Elsewhere we highlight stocks to watch, including Home Depot on its earnings release today and the debt ceiling meeting set for later today that will offer some insight on how sensitive the market is to that issue as we near the crunch time for US default risks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the
16/05/202319 minutes 17 seconds
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US UMich sentiment survey the worst of both worlds

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pIVWto   - Today we note the release of the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment survey, which showed the expectations component tanking badly while longer term inflation expectations suddenly ticked higher to their highest since 2011. Elsewhere, we note huge US credit growth as a possible sign of distress, the important macro data and earnings reports in the week ahead, the lack of a notable animal spirits in either direction in equities and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
15/05/202317 minutes 58 seconds
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Listeners’ podcast - First Edition!

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3O4VL5Y   - In this first edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast Listeners' Edition - we take a look at the many answers to our listener survey. Thanks very much to the Saxo Market Call community for the strong response. To address more of your questions, we have decided to make the survey a biweekly one, so we will follow up on more of your questions next week. We also have a brief market wrap at the end of today's pod, covering Google AI, copper breaking key support and sterling selling off on the Bank of England and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AS
12/05/202344 minutes 47 seconds
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Mean reversion continues: sterling next?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42s3qj1   - In today's podcast, we note the market's choppy, but in the end positive embrace of the slightly softer US CPI data point yesterday as US treasury yields eased. On that note, we suggest that a crisis is almost needed to justify the market's forward expectations for the Fed, as pricing of significant easing starting later this year intensified yesterday. Could the debt ceiling issue drive that possible crisis scenario? Elsewhere, we preview today's Bank of England meeting and wonder whether the recent sterling surge means this will drive a "sell-the-fact" moment, as seemingly everything that tries to get moving ends up mean reverting (former EUR strength now erased, former JPY weakness now partially erased, etc..) We also talk Disney's woeful streaming results and much more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Rea
11/05/202322 minutes 56 seconds
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Druck calls imminent hard landing. US CPI matters less jobs.

Responses to our new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey are pouring in. If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content this Friday's podcast:  https://bit.ly/42jEiLg   - Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nM683M   - In today's podcast, we note that, while today's US CPI release is the US data highlight of the week, that it is unlikely to drive a significant shift in forward Fed expectations unless there is a rather profound shock in the numbers (more likely on a hot number than a cooler one). Elsewhere, we talk Stanley Druckenmiller's imminent recession and "hard landing" call, the dire situation for US office REITS and dark clouds over Blackstone on the commercial real estate worries made worse by the recent bank turmoil, crude oil & grains, incoming earnings, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on
10/05/202322 minutes 44 seconds
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What shoe is this market waiting for to drop?

Please take the new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey: your weekly chance to provide feedback and drive the content of the Wednesday and Friday podcasts!   Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NN4uK1   - In today's podcast, we note that the market is scratching around for catalysts as we await US CPI data tomorrow and wonder whether it will even prove a catalyst. The most interesting news overnight was the surprising plunge in China's imports in April, further challenging the "re-opening" narrative. We also look at gold, stocks to watch today, the challenges for Sweden's financial system, earnings to watch and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. <a href='http://g
09/05/202318 minutes 31 seconds
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Big sentiment shift Friday. US CPI next test on Wednesday.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nClmbx   - Today we look at the big sentiment shift on Friday, in part driven by strong US April payrolls growth (although do note the negative revision of March data), but also driven by improved sentiment in US regional banks. We look at remarkably stretched positioning in US treasury futures for at least part of the curve, highlight the big shift in currencies late last week, note the treacherous shifts in the oil market, break down the week ahead in earnings, note the geopolitical risks in owning Apple shares, Warren Buffett's concerns on the US-China relationship, the week ahead on the macro calendar, especially the Wednesday US April CPI release, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here
08/05/202319 minutes 49 seconds
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US yield plunge, risk off had nothing to do with FOMC

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42jqelf   - Today we look at yesterday's FOMC policy statement and press conference delivering, by design, as little as possible to markets and then the late slump in risk sentiment and US treasury yields that was driven by another US regional bank, PacWest declaring that it was "reviewing its strategic options". This after Fed Chair Powell declared that US banks are "sound and resilient" in yesterday' presser. We also look at the coincident spike in gold prices on this development, crude plunging again, copper near support, incoming earnings (including from Novo Nordisk), stocks to watch, the ECB coming up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/Ma
04/05/202323 minutes 1 second
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What on earth is the FOMC reaction function?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40XRS5t   - Today we look at yesterday's rocky market session on the March US JOLTS survey showing far fewer job openings than expected, but also on further turmoil and concern related to US regional banks. We also ponder what the reaction function to tonight's FOMC meeting will be, when the market has already fully priced a pivot and aggressive rate cut cycle into 2024 (Fed funds priced to drop to 4.40% by end of this year and another 100 basis points or more by mid-next year). Elsewhere, more bearish action in commodity prices and FX, JPY jumps on yield dump, and mixed news in incoming earnings, with bright spots but the overall earnings season and guidance heading south. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.saxo/ins
03/05/202318 minutes 10 seconds
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FOMC tomorrow: worth hedging the ”sell-the-fact” risk

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LwsIpc   - Today we look at the US equity still poised just under key cycle resistance, although the narrow rally in megacap names had the Nasdaq 100 testing new cycle highs over he last couple of days. We look at FX developments, including a surprise RBA rate hike overnight and an extension of the aggressive JPY sell-off which has taken USDJPY to critical resistance just ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. On that front, we wonder whether the Fed delivering the expected pivot to a glide path on rates could prove a "sell-the-fact" setup, noting at least that is far cheaper to hedge downside risk with much lower implied options volatility. Incoming earnings, including from AMD, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href=
02/05/202320 minutes 11 seconds
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Market pre-celebrating the Fed pivot. Is it too complacent?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LGbXJm   - Today we look at the US equity market closing up against cycle resistance as earnings season has impressed and as the market seems in a celebratory mood on the prospects for the Fed pivot to a glide path this week after an anticipated 25 basis point hike, currently priced as the final hike for the cycle. Elsewhere, we look at FX, where the JPY continues to suffer a drubbing, and at position in US FX futures, which show the EURUSD position stretched. Notably EURJPY is hitting its highest levels in almost 15 years. Grains, crude oil, incoming earnings reports and the macro calendar for the week ahead and more all on today's podcast, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSign
01/05/202315 minutes
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Stocks make fresh bullish bid on earnings. BoJ to take its sweet time.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/449Xw7u   - Today we look at the market zipping back higher as the busiest day of the earnings season impressed even if Amazon's guidance spooked after the close. We also look at a very dovish Bank of Japan meeting as it sets itself up for a very leisurely policy review. The ability for the JPY to drop further will quickly depend on whether yields elsewhere turn higher again, however. A discussion of whether Germany increasingly sees China as a rival, industrial metals and food commodities and much more also on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic</p
28/04/202322 minutes 38 seconds
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Regional banks continue to suffer, but Meta!

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Lc0O1x   - Today we look at a bit of deja vu all over again as we saw a negative session yesterday in the US followed by a megacap - this time Meta - reporting after hours. We note that regional bank stocks continue to struggle at cycle lows. Some of the weak sentiment yesterday was on the Republicans passing their spending bill in the House that would lift the debt limit, but with no one having a clue on next steps as this bill is dead-on-arrival in the Senate, much less Biden's desk. Elsewhere, crude oil dropped sharply again, while gold is sticky near 2,000. Today brings perhaps the busiest earnings report calendar of the season, while the first BoJ meeting with Governor Ueda at the helm is up tomorrow. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='h
27/04/202320 minutes 51 seconds
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Choppy sentiment shifts as first megacaps report earnings.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Nh6xG0   - Today we look at the sharp sell-off in US equities in the cash session yesterday, in part on a weak April US Consumer Confidence reading, but also noting the big sentiment shift back to the positive side after hours on Microsoft and Alphabet reported earnings. It is also difficult to discern how much the US debt ceiling issue is weighing on the US treasury market (and therefore supporting the Japanese yen yesterday). Elsewhere, we look at metals and crude oil and stocks to watch, rounding up major companies reporting and previewing Meta reporting today after the close. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Sa
26/04/202319 minutes 59 seconds
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If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LqrFbg   - Today we look at the most rangebound US market since late 2021 and wonder what will spark the next momentum move in either direction as we note the confusing evidence that various macro data points are throwing off about the US economy. We also note the increasingly downbeat earnings outlook from analysts and the huge incoming load of earnings reports, including from Microsoft and Alphabet today after the close. In commodities, we look at investor flows and the latest declines in wheat prices, while the weak US dollar is really mostly a strong Euro at the moment. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
25/04/202323 minutes 33 seconds
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Heart of earnings season this week. Debt ceiling next steps.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LoIaEG   - Today we look at global markets in very different places as slumping commodities are a huge question mark on the quality of the recovery and the China re-opening story, while Europe has gunned to within reach of all time (non-inflation adjusted) highs. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling concern level continues to intensify while we try to identify the next steps this week that will determine whether the odds for a mishap are rising or falling. For equities, this week brings the heart of earnings season, with a long list of megacaps and bellwether names reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   -</p
24/04/202318 minutes 13 seconds
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Debt ceiling crunch time. Geopolitical tectonics rumbling in the background.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UWzOYn   - Today features Saxo Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen. In the market wrap session, we take a look at market sentiment softening, in part on soft US data and Tesla's very bad day, but perhaps as well as the debt ceiling crunch time is drawing nearer and is finding expression in corners of the markets. We also take a look at crude oil retreating further, while iron ore spilled lower again confounding the China re-opening bulls. Steen takes us through his thoughts on the debt ceiling issue, the China re-opening story, but especially the market's nervousness as geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, as we discuss the recent seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde on "Central Banks in a fragmenting world" and all of its geopolitical and policy implications, adding to that US President Biden's setting up the May 19-21 G-7 meeting in Japan as a key incoming event risk on possible further
21/04/202323 minutes 17 seconds
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Time to buy some downside insurance? Big weather shift coming...

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3mI0PSJ   - Today we discuss the very quiet US equity market, highlighting that VIX has dropped to the lowest since late 2021 and with the gains this year driven by a very narrow slice of the largest megacap names, which have yet to report earnings for the cycle. Concerns looking forward include liquidity and the debt ceiling issue approaching crunch time. We also take a look at Tesla's results that saw that stock sharply lower after the close. Elsewhere, we discuss metals, climate change risks intensifying ironically due to cleaner air from new shipping fuel standards, and the big shift from La Nina to El Nino weather patterns underway and possible impacts. Incoming macro data and more also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.saxo/i
20/04/202321 minutes 16 seconds
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It’s been a narrow US equity market rally. Tesla is on tap.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UKZYx5   - Today we discuss the US market continuing to hold its breath ahead of key cycle resistance as European equities are also near all-time highs, at least in the EuroStoxx50. It's important to note that the US market rally has been driven by a short list of megacap names. Elsewhere, we round up Netflix and ASML and preview Tesla's earnings report after the close, and many US regional banks will be reporting in coming days, particularly tomorrow, so we should have a broad picture of the state of play for US bank stress by Friday. In commodities, we look at crude oil and natural gas, noting ETF flows that suggest investors are reducing exposure to oil upside. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team he
19/04/202322 minutes 7 seconds
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Listening to Lagarde for once. Was Empire Manufacturing whiplash a signal?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UIHxZG   - Today we discuss the market in a holding pattern, which is actually quite impressive given the further sharp advance in US treasury yields, in part on strong US data, including a whiplash turnaround in the April Empire Manufacturing survey. Is this a sign that the industrial policy initiatives the US has announced over the last few quarters are finally working their way into the numbers? Elsewhere, we note a seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde before a US think tank, in which she riffed on the "fragmenting" world and policy imperatives, including the aims of fiscal policy, CB interdependence and more. We will follow up in coming days on the importance of this speech. Elsewhere, we consider stocks to watch this earnings season, the latest on gold and wheat & more. Today's pod features Peter Ga
18/04/202322 minutes 54 seconds
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Special Edition: Generative AI Part 2 with Emil Sarauw

Link to Part 1 of this podcast:  In this continuation of the conversation from Part 1, we feature special guest Emil Sarauw, head of AI with Droids Agency, who takes us through his thoughts on all things Generative AI, from its applications to its implications. These span from envisioning how AI can provide a tremendous boost to productivity to some of the dangers it brings in terms of our ability as a society to trust information that is presented to us in all forms, from text to images and even video. We also have thoughts on how blockchain might address some of the latter dangers. Emil also peeks into the near and more distant future on the how the AI revolution will impact our professional and even personal lives. Also on the pod are Saxo's Peter Garnry and John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. <a href='http://g
17/04/202339 minutes 52 seconds
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Treasury yields jump, USD fights back as earnings season hits full stride this week.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43FXvrC   - Friday saw a solid jump in US treasury yields, one that the incoming data didn't really justify, suggesting that market players have an agenda here. Could that agenda be the sense that there was an overreaction to the immediate implications for Fed policy from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis? The results and outlook from regional US banks this week should help answer that question. We also look at the bump in US yields helping the USD to reverse sharply from recent weakness and offer extensive commodity market coverage, especially on positioning, crude oil and copper. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - <
17/04/202316 minutes 30 seconds
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Market in goldilocks mode, with massive earnings week ahead.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KVuJMl   - Today we look at the market posting a strong session as US data was benign and as the US dollar rolled over to new cycle lows. Hard to read too much into local price action, however, as we await the Q1 earnings season kick-off today with the large US banks reporting and a heavy earnings calendar next week. We also delve into metals and commodity performance generally here, the end of the EuroDollar futures market as SOFR futures take over, the macro calendar for the week ahead and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
14/04/202324 minutes 15 seconds
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Inflation is not going away. Earnings season incoming.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UBoG2W   - Today we look at the choppy reception of the US March CPI figures and evidence that inflation remains a problem, with the risk that energy prices re-aggravate the inflation story in coming months as oil breaks higher. The US dollar is on its knees and breaking lower - a situation that could extend here. We also look at key stocks to watch, including the great news from luxury giant LVMH and preview the coming attractions for this earnings season set to kick off on Friday. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
13/04/202318 minutes 40 seconds
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Another 0DTE frenzy in wait on US CPI?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/4001mwQ   - Today we look at the market continuing to hold its breath, likely in anticipation of today's US March CPI release, where a strong directional surprise could unleash the latest round of zany intraday volatility on 0DTE (zero-day-to-expiry) S&P 500 options. We also discuss the compelling Japanese equity market, crude oil breakout potential, softs and precious metals on fire and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
12/04/202322 minutes 40 seconds
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This market is tough to keep down. US CPI tomorrow to set tone.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UuuM4T   - Today we look at a market that doesn't want to stay down as signs of incoming economic weakness aren't yet urgent enough to spook confidence, while we're also unlikely to see a significant reheating of inflation concerns. This could mean we have room for an extension of the equity rally, provided earnings season doesn't bring worrying guidance. We also take a look at FX, crude oil and wheat, stocks to watch, the economic calendar for the rest of the week and more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
11/04/202318 minutes 32 seconds
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Special Edition: Generative AI Part 1: what it is and how and whether to gain exposure.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ub9x81   - In this special edition of the podcast, Saxo's John J. Hardy and Peter Garnry discuss the Generative AI phenomenon, both defining what it is and offering a few thoughts on its enormous potential impacts as Generative AI applications mature. The discussion also turns to the opportunities and especially the difficulties in finding publicly traded companies that are directly involved with Generative AI as virtually all of the pure-play activity in the space is still in the start-up phase. Plenty of food for thought on this technology, which is likely set to be the third great computing revolution after PC's were introduced in the late 70's and early 80's, then the internet arrived in the late 1990's and early 2000's.  Note: Sequoia Capital piece referenced extensively in the podcast.   
06/04/202329 minutes 46 seconds
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Market jolted by JOLTS - an overreaction or sign of fear?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mi1Smo   - Yesterday saw a change of tone in the US on the far weaker than expected JOLTS survey of job openings, with the market reaction seemingly far more sharp than a single data point might justify, particularly in US treasuries. This sets up even more focus on incoming US labor market data in coming days. A letter from JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon bemoaning sustained risks for banks also spooked the market and banking stocks. We also discuss the massive wave of electrification to come and some of the equities that are involved in that process, discuss FX stories like the surprising large RBNZ hike overnight and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click he
05/04/202322 minutes 51 seconds
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Market shrugs off oil spike, celebrates lower yields

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ubf7r1   - Today we struggle a bit with the market backdrop, as equities pulled back higher to post new local highs in places despite the huge surge in crude oil prices after the weekend OPEC cut announcement, perhaps as treasury yields wilted on the back of a weak ISM Manufacturing survey out of the US. More important incoming data lies ahead. We check in on FX after the RBA hold on further tightening overnight, discuss the crude oil market after the huge weekend gap, talk gold and wheat, and look at stocks to watch, including miner Teck Resources and biotech name Illumina. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account w
04/04/202318 minutes 58 seconds
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OPEC spoils the megacap party

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nx9FCy   - Today we look at the strong close for US equities on Friday as they surged into month-, quarter-, and Japanese financial year-end, especially driven by a megacap surge and hype in names linked to the generative artificial intelligence phenomenon. The party was partly spoiled at the weekend on OPEC announcing a surprise cut in production, which triggered a several dollar jolt higher in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at the week ahead on the macro calendar, with the RBA set to meet Tuesday, and look at Tesla's delivery numbers for Q1, grains and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with
03/04/202317 minutes 39 seconds
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If market is right on Fed, the economy has to nosedive, and fast.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nCn9gi   - Today we look at the narrow slice of companies, especially the market cap heavyweights that are taking the big US indices higher, while we note that all does not look well beneath the surface. We also break down the somewhat incoherent market view on the Fed vs. equities, as Fed rate cuts later this year would seem to require a rapid deterioration of the economic outlook. A look at Tesla and CATL looking to build batteries in the US, Netflix news, the busy economic calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
31/03/202319 minutes 39 seconds
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Equities marching higher on AI and mega caps focus

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zkMuOK   - In today's podcast we talk about the improved momentum in equities driven by technology stocks and especially with yesterday's best performing theme being semiconductors driven by AI focus, strong EV demand, and improving demand for memory chips in data centers. We also talk Sweden as a showcase of the impact from tighter credit conditions and the new financial year in Japan. On commodities we cover oil with a focus on recent changes to the Brent crude contract and the slowing production in the US due to cost pressures, lastly on commodities we highlight recent developments in the grain markets. Finally, we cover better than expected earnings from H&M and talk about US non-financial corporate profit margins reached the highest levels in 2022 since the end of WWII. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy on FX. Read daily in-dept
30/03/202321 minutes
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Equities extend momentum led by energy

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zdrdX2   - Risk sentiment is on the rise with the second straight session yesterday in equities with procyclical industry groups such as energy, transportation, banks, and mining rallying. Today's sentiment is extended with news that Alibaba is splitting into six separate business rallying 13% on the news. We also got a strong outlook from Lululemon yesterday and better than expected US March consumer confidence highlighting a strong US economy despite the obvious cracks at banks and real estate. In today's podcast we also cover the positive momentum in oil markets and gold that continues to benefit from the recent nervousness over banks. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/MarketCall
29/03/202314 minutes 21 seconds
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Bank stocks bounce, broader market uninspired by relief

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TMxqmn   - Today we note that, while bank stocks bounced strongly in the US yesterday and yields mean reverted back higher, the broader market was uninspired by these developments and tech stocks sold off after failing once again to take out the key cycle resistance. We continue to fret the next shoes to drop and bemoan the lack of good indicators to get a sense of where the worst pressures in the system lie (likely in the darker corners of shadow banking and private equity). A look at rebounding commodities, especially oil and copper, stocks to watch, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click
28/03/202319 minutes 28 seconds
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Markets try to stabilize, but looking for next shoe to drop.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JQz81z   - Today we look at the market trying to breathe a sigh of relief, but with concerns lingering, not only on the risk of another round of bank turmoil as the weakest links may be in commercial real estate and real estate exposures, but also on the likelihood that this latest crisis has brought the recession forward via an incoming credit crunch. We delve into earnings for the week ahead, commodities positioning and precious metals, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
27/03/202318 minutes 10 seconds
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The unbearable tightness of bank funding

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TD3fhj   - Today we look at the multi-speed market, as tech stocks tried to pump on vague new language from US Treasury Secretary Yellen aimed at softening prior comments on the official posture to banking system turmoil. Alas, US bank stocks were in for a further drubbing yesterday and we also discuss the negative focus on European banks is pummeling sentiment into early trading in Europe as well. Also on the call: the knock-on effects of all of this into FX, earnings watch next week, the China re-opening story fighting for attention and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - In
24/03/202320 minutes 37 seconds
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Yellen statement on deposits spooks market, while Powell thoroughly ignored.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40eSCUn   - Today we look at the market's negative reaction to Yellen clearly stating that she has never discussed "anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits" at the same time Powell was holding the FOMC press conference. While the Fed kept its dot plot policy forecasts unchanged, the market ignored this as the Fed is clearly pivoting with this latest statement, which introduced new language on recent developments impacting credit conditions and the economy. We assess the impact of Yellen's statements across markets, including gold and FX, consider the situation for European banks, especially on real estate pressures, note stocks to watch, preview the Bank of England today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy
23/03/202316 minutes 35 seconds
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Catch 22 for the FOMC: market leans for a hike, but...

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TDgNtk   - Today we discuss the uncertainty around the Fed's interest rate decision and guidance at today's FOMC meeting, where the Powell Fed faces the unenviable task of weighing financial stability risks against ongoing inflation risks, with the market leaning more strongly for a hike now but watching whether the Fed is willing to cave on its "higher for longer" forward guidance. And in the event the Fed does pause, will the market celebrate this or be spooked that the Fed sees things as worse than feared? We also look at where unease is greatest among global banks, note hot UK CPI numbers in this morning, crude oil, grains positioning surprises and gold. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here</a
22/03/202322 minutes 22 seconds
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Are markets too calm? Will FOMC play ball with market expectations?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yVYfei   - Today we look at the eerie calm across markets after the two consecutive weekend interventions to deal with systemic risks from failing banks. We also discuss whether the FOMC will be willing to market its forecasts anywhere near where market expectations have shifted in its forward guidance at tomorrow's meeting, look at copper, natural gas and platinum, stocks to watch, including Amazon, where we wonder if activist investors could soon make an appearance and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
21/03/202320 minutes 55 seconds
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Weekend Credit Suisse deal unsettles markets on debt wipeout.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3n7RIdy   - Today we look at the weekend's shotgun wedding arranged by the SNB that sees UBS taking over Credit Suisse with a number of liquidity guarantees and a massive eyebrow-raising wipeout of Credit Suisse's Tier1 debt. That last move has markets unsettled on the implications as it breaks the assumed rules of engagement for bankruptcies, putting bank debt and bank shares under heavy pressure this morning.  We also look at what the Fed may do on Wednesday after the crazy repricing of the yield curve, the week ahead for equity earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with S
20/03/202323 minutes 49 seconds
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Market sees a glass that is half full of liquidity for now.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42mi0sE   - Today we note the strong comeback in sentiment yesterday after an initial dip on the ECB moving ahead with a 50 basis point hike that surprised many and was initially read as a possible policy mistake. An injection of cash into troubled lender First Republic Bank in the US by peers in the banking industry was also behind some of the brightening in sentiment yesterday. We talk through the difficulty in interpreting market signals here when the first move in a shock is simply to reverse prior trends, something that doesn't always add information value. We also look at positive versus negative interpretations of the backdrop, action in key commodities and the earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo St
17/03/202324 minutes 33 seconds
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Credit Suisse gets lifeline. ECB faces unenviable task today.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FuIoXD   - Today we continue to highlight the tremendous volatility in asset markets, particularly bonds, on the bank-centered turmoil and wonder whether the extension of a lifeline by the Swiss National Bank to Credit Suisse will provide any calm beyond the immediate relief that the latest weakest link isn't set to break. We also look at the ECB's impossible task at its meeting today as it juggles concerns with financial stability and its formerly most-hawkish guidance, we note the turmoil slipping into the commodity markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic</p
16/03/202323 minutes 41 seconds
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Nervous calm doesn’t feel very stable here

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lddufp   - Today we look at the market's attempt to piece together some calm after the sudden trauma and lightning official response/bailout of depositors after the SVB bankruptcy. We highlight the need for more time to assess the fallout, continuing to note the longer term risks to credit transmission if recent events have served as a wake-up call for depositors, who have yet to demand higher returns on their savings. A look at earnings and macro data on watch through next week's FOMC meeting as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
15/03/202318 minutes 34 seconds
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Careening toward a credit crunch?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/404Z6Vj   - Still very early days, as we ponder the ongoing fallout from the turmoil in the US banking system, which has triggered a massive collapse in yields as the market brings forward the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. One significant danger is that we risk a credit crunch as banks are forced to scramble for funding and deposits. We highlight areas and indicators that are flashing red, the impact of the situation into currencies, precious metals, and equity sectors. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
14/03/202321 minutes 27 seconds
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SVB fallout: Nobody knows what will happen next

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZFKGew   - We follow up on Friday's big event with SVB Financial failing as a financial institution which set in motion a US government backstop of uninsured deposits over the weekend which extended to Signature Bank which was also taken over by the US government yesterday. We focus on the market reaction across equities, US bonds, interbank spreads, and gold with our main message being that nobody knows what will happen next. It is all one big guessing this week on fallout from the failure of SVB Financial. Today's pod features Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
13/03/202318 minutes 32 seconds
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A warning shot has been fired

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Li0Ne9   - Markets got big jolt yesterday when Silvergate Capital announced a liquidation of the bank that has suffered from the implosion in cryptocurrencies. The event cascaded into SVB Financial (Silicon Valley Bank) plunging 60% in the main session and another 20% in extended trading as the bank has been forced to sell bonds at great losses. These moves cascaded further into other banking stocks and led equity futures lower in Asian and European trading. JD.com also announced a weaker than expected Q1 revenue outlook saying the Chinese consumer is weaker than estimated and that the extended lockdown has impacted behaviour. In today's podcast we go through the implications of the SVB Financial fallout and what it means for markets moves and especially with the large trading volumes in zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) options. We also cover the JPY following the BoJ meeting and the moves in CHF on banking ris
10/03/202319 minutes 13 seconds
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Bank of Japan could cast a very long shadow over global markets

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FaQOmL   - Today we look at a market that is holding its breath in anticipation of incoming US data to refresh the probabilities that the Fed feels forced to re-accelerate the pace of rate hikes at the March 22. But as well, all traders need to consider the Bank of Japan meeting risk up overnight tonight as a surprisingly large adjustment from Kuroda could set even global bond and equity markets on edge, not just the Japanese yen. We also look at interesting stories in equities, from the latest on ASML to CATL and other companies. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
09/03/202319 minutes 43 seconds
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Fed Chair Powell hawkish blast unsettles markets again.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kVUQZw   - Today we look at the market swooning as it is forced to price the Fed terminal rate higher still after Fed Chair Powell pointed to higher rates than previously expected and even expressed a willingness to re-accelerate the pace of hikes if the "totality" of data points toward higher inflation risks again. We also look at the reaction to Powell's rhetoric in the US yield curve and across commodities and FX. Thoughts on earnings from cybersecurity firms Darktrace and Crowdstrike and from Adidas and much more also on today's pod, which features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AS
08/03/202323 minutes 10 seconds
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Triangulating ahead of the event risk blitz. RBA policy mistake?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L16cpC   - Today we look at the choppy equity market failing to extend the upside momentum for now as we triangulate mid-range ahead of a series of event risks, among these two days of Fed Chair Powell testimony starting today. Overnight, Australia's RBA announced a dovish hike, clearly looking for excuses to pause its tightening regime - is this a policy mistake in the making? We also look at evidence on what may have driven China's about-face on stimulating its economy, crude oil, natgas and wheat & other grain markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music b
07/03/202321 minutes 29 seconds
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Bulls celebrate yield dip. Heavy central bank calendar this week.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Zp2Y3s   - Today we look at the strong comeback in equity markets Friday as yields dipped sharply, providing some relief after the recent strong ramp higher. Still, it is interesting to note that inflation expectations may be undergoing a sea change as well, which has come to the aid of gold. Elsewhere, we gauge the market reaction to China's policy signals, note the busy week ahead on the central bank front, with the RBA up tonight, Fed Chair Powell out speaking in testimony before Congressional panels tomorrow and Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, which will be Governor Kuroda's final meeting. This and much more on today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/Mark
06/03/202317 minutes 47 seconds
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Neither bulls nor bears have conviction here. Week ahead a big one for macro.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3SJstKl   - Today we discuss the lack of conviction in the market after the action spilled lower below the 200-day moving average but failed to follow through and backed up to close the session higher, despite fresh pressure from rising yields, as the 10-year treasury benchmark took out the 4.00% level. In equities, a breakdown of what European equities have to offer relative to US equities. In commodities, focus on gold and natural gas. A look at the week ahead calendar for both earnings and especially macro as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic</
03/03/202320 minutes 59 seconds
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Tesla nothingburger and 4.0% 10-yr yield sets market on tilt

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/41Bzt00   - Today we look at the market closing on a weak note on a fresh rise in Treasury yields and then spilling lower in later trading after Tesla's investor event was a damp squib. Elsewhere, inflation remains very much on the brain in Europe, with today's Eurozone-wide inflation print for February rounding out the set of February CPI reports across the bloc. In FX, sterling feels the heat on dithering BoE governor Bailey. In commodities, the latest on copper and crude oil and in equities, thoughts on where we are in the current historic drawdown. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro a
02/03/202322 minutes 52 seconds
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The China reopening narrative tries to get back on the rails.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EOkrdE   - Today we look at the stunning official February Manufacturing PMI numbers out China overnight, which suggested the most rapid pace of expansion in China's manufacturing sector in over a decade. We look at how this development propagated through commodities and currencies, as well as the impact on EU rates after hot CPI numbers from France and Spain yesterday. Thoughts on inflation and real growth, stocks and earnings to watch, weakening US Consumer Confidence expectations and what that signals and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by
01/03/202321 minutes 31 seconds
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Can yields also be the cart and not the horse?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3m6SAyJ   - Today we look at yields remaining near cycle highs, with US equities struggling into the close after an odd, intraday rally stumbled. Note that end of month is rolling into view today after a terrible month for bonds, with the US 2-year yield up 60 basis points month-to-date into today. On that note, we delve into whether yields really have any bearing on company investment. Elsewhere, pondering what inspires crude to pull itself out of the range, forward curves in the commodity space, the struggling JPY, Tesla's incoming Investor Day and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   -
28/02/202323 minutes 58 seconds
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US PCE inflation data spikes yields, but US equities hold the line.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IVT2IZ   - The hot core US January PCE inflation data spooked markets on Friday as the market was forced to take Fed rate hike expectations to new cycle highs, with even discussion of the possibility of a 50-bp hike at the March FOMC meeting. Equities have been quick to recover as critical support held Friday, but the USD is firmer. Elsewhere, we note the many assets linked to the China reopening narrative struggling, from copper and other metals to AUD, etc., we also look at grain prices hitting new 1-year lows, look at the focus for equity markets this week on incoming earnings and more. Today's pod features Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. <a href='http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSign
27/02/202316 minutes 56 seconds
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The China recovery narrative struggling

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KDjvfJ   - Today we look at the expression of the China recovery narrative in markets continuing to struggle, with the Chinese currency weakening and commodities generally under pressure, with a fresh sell-off in copper overnight that reversed the recent rally. In FX, the Aussie weak on that account, while the JPY is adrift after a damp squib from Ueda's nomination hearings. Elsewhere, we delve into shareholder yield perspective for the US market, European listed companies closing in on the US in earnings margin performance, the still fragile sentiment backdrop on geopolitical concerns. We also look at the week ahead in earnings and macro data. Today's pod features Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team h
24/02/202321 minutes 49 seconds
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The next support levels are the bigger ones for a capitulation

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xLbvSf    - Today we look at market sentiment remaining fragile ahead of the next support levels for the major US indices, which are the important ones for a . We again highlight the geopolitical risks as a possible trigger for a significant capitulation in sentiment, even as rising yields are already driving concerns. We discuss the comedy of NVidia continuing to pretend that crypto-mining doesn't exist, delve into the struggling China recovery narrative as expressed by commodities, the JPY focus in FX tonight as Japan reports CPI and BoJ Governor nominee Ueda is set to testify and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
23/02/202317 minutes 55 seconds
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Helmets on as yields pressure, stocks plunge

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KupfIF   - Today we break down the worst session in US equities in some two months, as traders finally wake up to the risks of higher treasury yields, but also possibly on concerns that wage pressures may drive a negative impact on corporate margins. On that front, interesting to note the market reaction to Walmart and Home Depot earnings and guidance. A look at FX themes, earnings and macro data ahead and more also on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
22/02/202319 minutes 1 second
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This limbo unlikely to last as geopolitics weigh.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kauWkq   - Today we are watching and waiting for the US to come back online after the three-day weekend as the close on Friday has kept equity markets and the US dollar in limbo. We discuss the remarkably steep natural gas forward curve at length and what it is telling us, highlight interesting retail names reporting earnings today in the US, and note the huge headline risks in geopolitics as Russia's Putin is out speaking today with China's top diplomat in Moscow. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
21/02/202322 minutes 30 seconds
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Geopolitical risks crowd out all other considerations for now

Link to slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Ensvlf   - Today we look at the solid bounce in risk sentiment on Friday ahead of a three-day weekend in the US (where markets are closed for Presidents Day today) as US treasury yields rolled over and took the USD lower as well, a bearish reversal for the greenback just as it was trying to break free to the upside. In commodities, we focus on copper and crude and the lack of follow-through in the China re-opening narrative. In FX, we touch on the USD reversal, the JPY this week and NZD and SEK. In stocks to watch, a discussion of Deere and its strong results on Friday as well as the busy week ahead in earnings reports, where a wide variety of companies are reporting. But drowning out everything is the risk of an escalation in the US-China confrontation after the US warned China in stark language against providing lethal aid to Russia. This after VP Harris charged Russia with crimes against humanity in
20/02/202318 minutes 49 seconds
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Market nerves fraying on US yield pressure. Big OpEx today.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/414Ihem   - Today we look at risk sentiment spooked badly yesterday, first by strong US data, and then later by a Tesla recall announcement that suddenly cratered the most speculative corner of the options market ahead of the weekly expiry for Tesla options today. US 10-year yields are near the pivot highs from late December and ahead of heavy new issuance incoming next week. We also discuss our new luxury theme basket which we think will be a more "pure luxury" collection of companies than many of the broader luxury ETF's out there. The latest in FX, the earnings and macro calendars for the week ahead and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here
17/02/202314 minutes 54 seconds
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Animal spirits or casino spirits?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lIYIgf   - Today we look at the equity market remaining buoyant if not yet following through higher, even as US treasury yields remain pinned near the highs of the cycle after strong US Retail Sales yesterday. Also, we have a possible interesting twist in the US seasonals and a warning from JPMorgan's options expert on the "Volmaggedon 2.0" risks from the 0DTE options trading. Stocks to watch, including Shopify and Nestle, and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
16/02/202322 minutes 25 seconds
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Fed terminal rate hits new high. China recovery story stumbling?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lwPzr7   - Today we look at the market's unsuccessful attempt to draw meaning from yesterday's CPI data, but US yields ending the day near the highs for the cycle, in terms of Fed expectation ahead of today's US January Retail Sales print. We also look at a significant change of temperature in the China recovery story overnight, discuss AirBnB results and outlook as a sign of a resilient US economy and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
15/02/202314 minutes 18 seconds
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Another US CPI circus today. Tightening financial conditions?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3k2LnyS   - Today we look at the odd session yesterday in the US, with no readily apparent proximate cause to the rally outside, perhaps of traders hedging today's US January CPI release, which could trigger considerable volatility, especially on the impact of heavy 0DTE options trading if the release is a big surprise in either direction. We also note tightening financial conditions in the corporate bond market, talk market reaction to incoming earnings data, including from ThyssenKrupp, SolarEdge and Palantir, and look at today's crop of earnings reports, as well as stories impacting FX & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with S
14/02/202316 minutes 9 seconds
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What does a ”no landing” scenario look like?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3E2AGDc   - Today we look at the market narrative around the coming "landing" and what might happen if the economy re-accelerates and the market has to price in a "no landing" scenario. The key is the long end of the yield curve, which has remained very anchored for a few months. Elsewhere, we discuss the important US January CPI release coming up tomorrow, discuss Interesting stocks to watch as some vulnerable companies seek liquidity and Lyft craters in contrast to Uber's recent report, and look at earnings reports up today.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
13/02/202318 minutes 13 seconds
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Risk off, BoJ Governor nominee, Adidas dump, SEK soars

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3RPuTGP   - Today we look at the US market turning lower again yesterday and closing down through an important level that was providing resistance on the way, setting up the technical situation of a risk of downside capitulation. Higher US yields weighed and the US dollar rallied yesterday, although the big news in FX was a watershed Swedish Riksbank meeting that blasted the Swedish krona higher. Breaking this morning was the unanticipated news of the nominee for BoJ Governor, which sparked JPY volatility. We also delve into the disastrous news from Adidas this morning, the earnings calendar this week, commodity developments, the latest on natural gas and the week ahead macro calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='https://www.h
10/02/202321 minutes 11 seconds
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Market celebrates Disney cost-cutting axe

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40Fq1It   - The Saxo Q1 2023 Outlook Today we look at the choppy market action as yesterday's sell-off has been in turn partially reversed by a strong report from Disney after the close, with the company’s stock jumping on cost-cutting and job cut announcements. We also wonder whether Uber's guidance and performance suggest a phase shift in the company’s and other companies’ potential. In commodities, we look at crude oil, natural gas, gold and grains. FX traders are awaiting for clarity on the identity of the new BoJ governor, while SEK has jumped on a hawkish Riksbank surprise as we were recording the podcast. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. . Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and
09/02/202321 minutes 31 seconds
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Fear not the Fed for now, concludes market

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3I8xMj1   - The Saxo Q1 2023 Outlook Today we look at the strong market rally yesterday after considerable volatility in the wake of Fed Chair Powell's interview. In the end, the market decided that Powell is benign and not anxious to push back against market expectations or the dovish interpretation of last week's FOMC meeting. We look at leading market sectors that suggest the market is pricing increasing probability of a new upswing in the economy. We also break down key stocks to watch, including Cybersecurity leader Fortinet, Vestas and more. In FX, the focus is on whether the USD rally can continue if the market feels the Fed is passive here. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call a
08/02/202318 minutes 33 seconds
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Saxo Q1 Outlook! USD has reversed, will equity market follow?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3E9G5J5   - The Saxo Q1 2023 Outlook Today we look at the cross-market developments after the latest surge in US treasury yields and the US dollar on the market pricing Fed peak rate expectations back higher, wondering if the equity market can hold up under the pressure. In FX, the RBA waxed more hawkish overnight and Japan's December wage inflation data was the hottest in 25 years. Crude oil, gold, stocks to watch today, our Outlook dropping today and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - I
07/02/202320 minutes 52 seconds
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Massive US jobs report strength confounds market

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wWC86b   - Today we break down the massive January jobs report surprise out of the US on Friday as the positive surprise was a multi-sigma event that shocked US yields and the US dollar back higher. The timing added to the reaction function after USD bears were already wrong-footed by a dovish ECB and Bank of England the prior day. We also look at the confusing mix of data that is keeping the signal-to-noise ratio on the direction of the economy very low. In equities, we look at what now be an entrenched secular decline in cloud computing growth, the earnings season for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Sa
06/02/202317 minutes 17 seconds
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Pump and dump on BoE, ECB dovishness, megacap earnings duds

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3l64rg2   - Today we look at the market running away to the upside again yesterday in a melt-up driven by Meta's squeezing 25% higher and the Bank of England and ECB surprising loudly on the dovish side as they may pause their tightening regimes ahead of schedule. In late trading, the mood shifted to the downside on downbeat earnings reports from the three mega-caps Apple, Alphabet and Amazon all reporting after the close. We also look at the ugly gold reversal, soft commodities in the spotlight, earnings season still in full swing next week, the macro data up today and next week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to ope
03/02/202322 minutes 34 seconds
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Market uncorks fresh rally on Powell’s weak push-back

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3l4DE3P   - Today we look at the market ripping higher still after the FOMC statement and Powell press conference left plenty of room for the market to feel that its forward expectations for the Fed easing by later this year are spot-on, allowing the recent squeeze or rally in US markets to extend higher still, and through key resistance. We also look at strong Meta results after hours and preview the mother lode of earnings reports up today. A look a the reaction to the FOMC in FX as well as a preview for the ECB and BoE today, a run-down of crude oil and precious metals and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here
02/02/202322 minutes 7 seconds
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Powell may protest to market expectations, but data in driver’s seat.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XUY11O   - Today we look at the market gunning back higher after a soft employment cost index report for Q4 and, wouldn't you know it, a WSJ Timiraos article touting the possibility of a Fed pause after another March hike. What can Powell and company do today in the press conference to get financial conditions to tighten? And then we have the ongoing blitz of earnings reports, with Meta a concern today after a very weak Snap yesterday. Crude oil, metals, FX and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
01/02/202323 minutes 32 seconds
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The squeeze ran out of oxygen. Blitz of event risks into Friday.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kXwQEK   - Today we look at the sudden reversal in risk sentiment yesterday as US equities made an abrupt about-face and turned sharply lower, just after having challenged interesting resistance levels. No surprise to the see the US dollar gaining a strong bid on the change of mood, as the market suddenly shows a modicum of respect for incoming event risks, including tomorrow's FOMC meeting. A look at the shifting fundamentals for banks, earnings reports to watch today and tomorrow, crude oil and gold & much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMus
31/01/202319 minutes 32 seconds
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Fed set to push back against this market squeeze

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3HpAoaK   - Today we look at the market squeeze in the US continuing into the close last week, with bubble stocks finishing the week with a furious additional squeeze and Tesla up over 10% and now 75% from its lows from earlier this month. The Fed can't be happy and is likely set to push back as hard as it can against easing financial conditions at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Will it succeed? We also dive into the latest on copper and crude oil, the very busy earnings and macro calendar this week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
30/01/202319 minutes 23 seconds
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Massive week ahead. Pondering Adani contagion in EM.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3R9lt8M   - Today we look at the US equity market posting another strong session and bulling toward the last major local resistance area in the S&P 500, with the Nasdaq 100 closer to the key resistance and managing a close above the 200-day moving average yesterday. We express strong concerns that the market is ignoring the risk of margin pressure on company profits this year. We also look at the massive downdraft in Adani after short-selling outfit Hindenburg issued its report on the company, wondering at the scale of the contagion. Concerns for global food prices, latest thoughts on crude, the huge week ahead for earnings, central bank meetings and macro data and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.saxo/insig
27/01/202318 minutes 58 seconds
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Choose a direction, already...

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XEe83F   - Today we look at the US market once again righting itself, rallying hard from intraday weakness and the gap lower in Microsoft after its earnings report from the prior day, and keeping the sense of suspense on the coming market direction very much alive as the price action is churning in pivotal areas on the chart. Tesla's report after hours and outlook kept that stock in rallying form as well. US yields eased again, and the Bank of Canada hiked, but indicated that it will pause its tightening cycle for now, one of the first non-EM banks to do so and driving hopes that other central banks will soon follow suit. A look at crude oil, wheat, gold, the earnings calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.
26/01/202318 minutes
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Market holds breath as Tesla to report after sharp squeeze

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Rch59i   - Today we look at the US market treading water and even dipping a bit after hours, spooked in part by Microsoft guidance and 3M results for the quarter and mulling the incoming Tesla earnings report today after the close after the most popular stock for speculators  has rallied over 40% off the recent lows. We note that demand for US treasuries at yesterday's 2-year auction was the strongest in over two years, take stock of the AUD surge overnight on a strong Q4 CPI report, wrap ASML results and look at the rest of today's busy earnings calendar, with a wide variety of companies reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with
25/01/202318 minutes 39 seconds
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Uncomfortable squeeze as earnings season rush kicks off

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JcTpzw   - Today we discuss the US equity market melting up technically at an awkward moment, as leading indicators suggest we are barreling into a recession. In any case, a big test ahead as earnings season kicks off in earnest with today's batch of companies reporting, including beaten down mega-cap Microsoft after hours. In commodities, a check-in with crude oil, silver's ugly dip relative to still-strong gold, and one of the most shorted commodities, coffee. Stocks to watch today, the macro calendar picking up and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro
24/01/202316 minutes 31 seconds
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Mixed signals ahead of US earnings blast

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wkQ0XV    - Today we look at Friday's strong resurgence in US equities, which came after a seeming strong rejection of the rally into pivotal levels in the US S&P 500 index. This leaves market technicals in limbo ahead of the blast of earnings reports from large US companies this week and next. We also discuss confusing macro signals as financial conditions continue to ease, although treasury yields have pulled back from their recent slide. Also on the pod: the latest positioning data in commodities markets, natural gas on colder weather, wheat and coffee under pressure, JPY weaker, a look ahead at this week's busy earnings and less busy macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here
23/01/202323 minutes 28 seconds
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US jobless claims, hawkish ECB halt the slide in yields

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kwAo0u   - Today we note that rebounding yields on hawkish ECB talk and another very strong weekly jobless claims report out of the US have the JPY weakening again, but not supporting the US dollar outside of USDJPY. Elsewhere, we look at stronger than expected results from Netflix and weaker than expected results from Procter and Gamble as volumes drop due to price hikes. A look at crude oil dynamics now that the EU is attempting its embargo on Russian crude, gold maintaining remarkable strength and avoiding notable consolidation, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - <p
20/01/202314 minutes 41 seconds
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Wait, was bad news actually bad news yesterday?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZPdT7e   - Today, we look at the US equity market reacting poorly to bad US economic data yesterday rather than celebrating the drop in treasury yields to new cycle lows, an interesting change of behavior. We also look at the suddenly firming US dollar and an even firmer Japanese yen overnight, just a day after the Bank of Japan triggered a slide in the yen. Gold holding steady through all of the fuss, while cyclical commodities rolled over a bit as China is set to go off line next week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
19/01/202316 minutes 42 seconds
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Kuroda is not for turning, but will step down soon

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kpPRzF   - Today, we look at the jolt back to the downside for the JPY after wily Bank of Japan governor Kuroda failed to deliver further policy tweaks and looks set to end his time at the helm in April without offering further policy tightening. Still, the JPY may not sell-off much more beyond the knee-jerk as bond yields are on the decline, keeping spreads to "capped" Japanese yields orderly and even tighter. Elsewhere, we note easign financial conditions and plenty of USD liquidity and whether it has the potential to driver further gains for risky assets and a weaker US dollar. We also dive into the latest on crude oil and metals, and earnings reports and macro data up today in the US. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team her
18/01/202314 minutes 29 seconds
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Bank of Japan in a corner, can’t avoid volatility

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XeSVgD   - Today, we look at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, noting the extreme anticipation around the event, together with the likelihood of considerable intraday volatility in the wake of the event, even if the Bank of Japan tries to deliver as little as possible, as we all know that new leadership and a likely further tightening of policy is in the pipeline with Kuroda's replacement after April. A look at crude oil, copper, upcoming earnings and macro data and more on today's pod, which features macro strategist Charu Chanana on the BoJ, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
17/01/202315 minutes 45 seconds
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Market bracing for BoJ impact Wednesday

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZFqklV   - Today, we look at an interesting week ahead as US equities continue to trade up against a pivotal resistance area (just above the 200-day moving average and just below the 4,000 level for the US SP& 500 index) as earnings season set for a big blast next week. Today US markets are closed. The event risk of the week, meanwhile, is the hotly anticipated Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, with markets unsure on whether Governor Kuroda and company are set to deliver further policy tweaks. Futures positioning in commodities, especially metals and the latest on natural gas in Europe and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an acco
16/01/202313 minutes 19 seconds
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Market has moved on from US CPI, here comes BoJ

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZvKoaz   -  Today we look at the ironically in-line US CPI release yesterday and the market eventually deciding that the data was benign. Equity markets rallied into very critical resistance levels as US treasury yields dipped into the range lows and financial conditions eased. While the US dollar was weaker, the big mover in FX was the JPY, which is pounding stronger into anticipation of a further policy tweak at next Wednesday's Bank of Japan meeting. In commodities, we look at the jump in grains on the WASDE report, talk natural gas, metals as gold has traded into key levels after the CPI release and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an a
13/01/202316 minutes 19 seconds
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Market showing no fear ahead of US CPI

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3k03vco     - Today we look at global equity markets gunning for more to the upside, apparently expecting a benign US CPI release today and pricing in a soft landing scenario as long treasury yields settled back lower after a strong US 10-year treasury auction yesterday. We also look at a resurgent JPY, why the euro is strong, but some thoughts on longer term caution, coffee and grains in commodities, the latest expansion plans abroad from TSMC, weak housing news but strong housing stocks & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
12/01/202321 minutes 4 seconds
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Metals are sending loud signals as US equities in limbo

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vRPi3Y   - Today we discuss the bounce-back in US equity markets as we are all supposedly holding our breath for a CPI release tomorrow when the last soft CPI release in December drove zany intraday volatility and a rally that was quickly erased - etching out a market top at the time. Elsewhere, we discuss the conflicting signals from expanding US credit while another sentiment survey disappoints, look at strong metals markets as a clear expression of hopes for a China-driven recovery, Apple's deepening vertical integration moves as it looks to ditch Samsung screens, and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   -<
11/01/202317 minutes 20 seconds
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European equities have come full circle since Russian invasion

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QpVrOp   - Today we note that the major European equity markets have come full circle since the Russian invasion of Ukraine last February, in part driven by a near freefall in natural gas prices over the last few weeks on mild weather. How much more can the market wring out of this development? We also note the reversal in the US equity market rally yesterday ahead of the important CPI data on Thursday. In equities, focus toward the end of the week on the major US banks reporting, but in the meantime, we have the important news for Google of a $10 billion investment in OpenAI as the future of internet search is heating up for the first time in many years. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='https://www.home.sa
10/01/202315 minutes 38 seconds
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Over-reacting to a single data point?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3k0mbcf   - Today we look at the mixed US jobs report on Friday and more importantly, the wild reaction to a very weak December ISM Services survey, while we question whether a single data point deserves such a strong reaction function. Regardless, the market took down US treasury yields  and the US dollar in the wake of the data. Elsewhere, the market is scrambling to absorb the remarkable policy shift out of China, with metals, AUD and especially CNH firming further. A look at stocks to watch, perspective on the big US banks as they are the first to report for the upcoming earnings season on Friday. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click
09/01/202318 minutes 34 seconds
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Beware risk of options tail wagging the market today.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GlgGw7    -   Today, we look at the market reaction to strong US labor market data yesterday, which triggered higher yields as the market was forced to mark the Fed policy rate higher for longer this year. Equities dropped and the US dollar surged, but the main even awaits today in the form of the US official jobs and average hourly earnings data as well as the December ISM Services is also up later today. On that note, heavy interest in very short-dated options could mean huge volatility swings on big data surprises today. Elsewhere, all things China-related are also on the move, including the yuan as every day brings new signs of official support for the economy. A look at earnings next week, metals, & more  also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and
06/01/202319 minutes 33 seconds
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Market stumbling around, awaiting incoming data.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3jN6Co1   - Today, we look at the market continuing to stumble around in the range, with little conviction emerging so far this year. Will this mean a trigger-happy reaction to incoming data? Elsewhere, we look at the gold rally fading, crude oil ripping lower and the Japanese yen mean reverting to weakness after its spectacular two-month rally, a likely sign of near-term exhaustion for that move. We also discuss Amazon chopping more jobs than expected, the still tight US labor market and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
05/01/202316 minutes 43 seconds
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Global markets getting back in synch today

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3X82XzD   - Today, we note that today's inter-market picture makes far more sense than what we saw yesterday as some low inflation data in Europe is helping to drive global bond yields lower, lifting risk sentiment and seeing a weaker US dollar. This came after a volatile and confusing day yesterday. The biggest winner of the first couple of days this year has been gold, which has soared above major resistance. We also look at the latest Tesla plunge and some of the network effects that may be aggravating its decline, discuss the reversal in crude oil prices and new lows in natural gas prices and how markets may continue to flourish on signs of a weakening economy. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Read daily in-depth market u
04/01/202318 minutes 53 seconds
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2023 really starts today and tomorrow

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Iitmq2   - Today, we remind traders that the market action doesn't really start for much of global liquidity until today's opening of UK and US markets, with Japan not even set to start trading until tomorrow. This makes the JPY volatility in particularly difficult to interpret in thin markets. Most of the USD move that has unfolded this morning did so during and after the recording of this podcast, but we suggest that it is important to wait for the US data on Friday for a firmer sense of where the market stands on the US dollar and other markets, including gold. Today we also discuss the important year ahead for Tesla, with more products and platforms in the mix than at any time in its history, contrasting its outlook with that of Volkswagen. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. C
03/01/202314 minutes 23 seconds
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First weeks of a New Year often pivotal

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QnnEFH   - Today, we look at how markets closed last year, noting the weakening of the US dollar in to year-end even as US treasury yields backed up into year end. Despite those higher yields, USDJPY trades near multi-month lows in anticipation of the Bank of Japan and the Fed moving in opposite directions with their policy for the balance of this year. Elsewhere, we dive into commodity positioning and the energy market as mild weather continues to drive gas and power prices down in Europe while crude oil actually rallied. A look at energy stories to track this year and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='https://www
02/01/202322 minutes 20 seconds
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Special Edition: The Listeners’ Podcast

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Cbk2jQ   - In this Special Edition of the podcast, the Saxo Market Call crew reveal our Listeners' predictions for the S&P 500, Fed Funds and the US 10-year yield in 2023. We also offer our thoughts on the same and run down a whole bevy of questions our listeners sent, including on our energy future, whether fossil fuel, alternative or nuclear, geopolitics of trade and currencies, investment themes and market returns, scenarios for inflation and more. We also highlight some recommended reading (lots more in the slide deck) and even reveal some of our personal interests in our downtime. A huge thank you to all of the listeners who responded and made 2022 a great year for the Saxo Market Call podcast! On this special edition of the podcast were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Click here to open an ac
30/12/20221 hour 6 minutes 6 seconds
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Special Edition: A look ahead at 2023 with Steen Jakobsen

This Special Edition of the podcast features an interview with Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen on the outlook for 2023 after a remarkably brutal year for investors in 2022 on the double whammy of bear markets in both bonds and equities. In particular, the conversation looks at the misguided optimism for next year that is ironically based on a base case of disinflation, recession and an eventual return of central bank easing, the impact of China coming back online, and where investors should focus their efforts for achieving returns in coming years. John J. Hardy hosts. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
29/12/202235 minutes 1 second
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Special Edition: Equity Outlook 2023

Slide deck for this episode: https://bit.ly/3PukShj   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - In this special edition podcast we outline our equity outlook for next year. We come around a wide range of topics such as recession, inflation, China, Tesla, energy sector, Europe, earnings, margin compression, and equity valuation. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Kim Cramer Larsson on technical analysis. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.    Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
28/12/202226 minutes 52 seconds
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Special Edition: Commodity Outlook for 2023

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3HTyTTX   - In this Special Edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast, host John J. Hardy discusses the wild year of 2022 for commodities and what may be in store for the commodities markets in 2023 with Saxo's Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen. We delve into what the forward curve is telling us, market positioning in commodities and zero in on Crude Oil, copper and the precious metals and Natural Gas. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
27/12/202227 minutes 7 seconds
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Special Edition: Investors’ Wish List for 2023

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vfDR5X      - In this Special Edition of the podcast, we discuss what investors are hoping to see in 2023 after the most traumatic year for "balanced" portfolios in modern memory. Items on the Wish List include hopes for a soft landing, easing pressure from central banks as inflation fades, a weaker US dollar, Chinese demand returning and more. But is this what investors will get? Discussing these pressing wish list items for the New Year on this special edition podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
23/12/202232 minutes 3 seconds
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Special Edition: Saxo Outrageous Predictions for 2023

Slide deck for this episode: https://bit.ly/3HSUsUw   - Saxo Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy PDF  - Saxo Outrageous Predictions Webinar with the strategy team   - In this Special Edition of the podcast, we discuss the Saxo 2023 Outrageous Predictions for 2023, based on the theme of The War Economy. Our Outrageous Predictions are a yearly exercise in looking at possible, if improbable events that may unfold in the year ahead and will alter the investment landscape if they do come to pass. This Special Edition podcast features Editor-in-Chief of the 2023 Outrageous Predictions John J. Hardy and major contributor Peter Garnry. <a href='http://goto.saxo/MarketC
22/12/202229 minutes 13 seconds
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Tesla wipeout as 2022 draws to a close

We want to hear from you, our daily Saxo Market Call podcast listeners! Friday, December 30 we will release a Special Edition Saxo Market Call Listeners Podcast. The content? Entirely up to you: let us know what you would like for Peter, Ole and John to talk about - markets, personal or otherwise. As well, please provide your end 2023 forecasts for: The S&P 500, the Fed Funds rate & the US 10yr yield. Send your forecasts and request to the SMC team: via e-mail: [email protected] and on Twitter: @saxomarketcall  Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PGhjok   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we look at markets posting an indifferent day yesterday after an initially negative reaction to the bump in global yields on the Bank of Japan's policy tweak. We also discuss precious metals jump yesterday, the l
21/12/202222 minutes 22 seconds
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Bank of Japan roils markets with a surprise policy tweak

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WqOONm   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we look at the Bank of Japan shocking markets overnight with a surprise shift in its yield-curve-control policy, as it lifted the cap on 10-year JGB's to 50 basis points from 25 basis points. The JPY rose in stepwise fashion together with the jump in longer Japanese yields and global yields were also impacted, taking risk sentiment lower. In commodities, we discuss metals and natural gas. In equities, we discuss the outlook for European defense stocks, including Rheinmetall and cover upcoming earnings reports from Nike, where the bar of market expectations looks high, and from FedEx, where the bar of expectations is quite low. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo
20/12/202218 minutes 41 seconds
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Rolling into a New Year after a traumatic 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3VaVYnU   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we look at whether investors have anything left to express in global markets for the balance of this calendar year after the traumatic experience for portfolios that 2022 has delivered. We delve into the latest on Tesla as its stock price continues to crater, we check in on FX positioning and special impacts on the US dollar from debt ceiling shenanigans that are afoot once again head of the new Congress set to take charge in two weeks time, look at precious metals technicals, stocks to watch this week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by
19/12/202219 minutes 43 seconds
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Santa rally becomes the Santa rout

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UZqbGx Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we look at an ugly day for global equity markets, with a bloodbath in Europe yesterday on a suddenly over-ambitious ECB that surprised with maximum hawkishness and spiked European rates, even if this ECB will hardly be able to carry out significantly more tightening than its global central bank peers from here. The Bank of England, meanwhile, surprised on the dovish side, taking down sterling several notches. We also look at natural gas and commodity backwardation perspectives, an interesting signal from First Quantum Mineral's run-in with Panama's government, earnings for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team
16/12/202219 minutes 58 seconds
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Market shrugs off FOMC. Another agenda now?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Wh2MS2   -   Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we look at the FOMC waxing about as hawkish as one could expect with higher inflation and rate projections for next year, especially relative to market expectations. And yet, despite some churning, US yields and the US dollar reacted very modestly to the meeting. Still, this morning has seen some sudden USD strength and weak risk sentiment - could this be due to forward liquidity concerns rather than anything the Fed delivered yesterday? Thoughts on precious metals, crude oil, today's heavy central bank calendar and more also today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AS
15/12/202214 minutes 10 seconds
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FOMC will have a hard time moving the needle today

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WeCzUi   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we look at yesterday's reaction to the softer than expected US November CPI data, with equity market upside fading quickly even as the reaction in US yields and the US dollar was stickier. We also discuss today's upcoming FOMC meeting, with the Fed facing a tough task if it wants to push back against easing market conditions and Fed policy expectations today. We also look at Tesla posting new cycle lows and concerns for the stock and EV market, Apple, Inditex, crude oil, precious metals, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMu
14/12/202218 minutes 29 seconds
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When will the US CPI three-ring circus stop?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hm7gYN   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today, we highlight the absurd levels of volatility around recent US CPI releases ahead of today's US November CPI data point, noting signs that market speculators and hedgers are revving up for another blast of volatility in the wake of today's release. At the same time, we suggest that the reaction function may be difficult as the FOMC meeting follows hot on the heels of this release the following day. Elsewhere, we look at precious metals and copper levels, whether regulators will (or should) approve mergers like the Novozymes-Christian Hansen attempt, earnings to watch for the rest of the week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Str
13/12/202215 minutes 11 seconds
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Volatile week ahead on US CPI, FOMC meeting

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3HnKoTo   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today, we look at what will likely prove a volatile week ahead for financial markets as the monthly US CPI release due tomorrow has sparked tremendous volatility and is up tomorrow, with an FOMC meeting and fresh set of Fed dot plot policy forecasts to follow on Wednesday. Elsewhere, we focus on the odd combination of power prices spiking in Europe even as gas prices ease, discuss low open interest in the commodities market, look at the week ahead in earnings and more. Today's pod features Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
12/12/202214 minutes 45 seconds
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Next week’s likely FOMC dot plot is not what the market is pricing

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Pdd9E4 Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today, we look at recent commodity market performance, where hopes for a reopening of Chinese activity is weighed against concerns for the forward outlook elsewhere. We also highlight the market's conviction that the Fed will be cutting rates in the second half of next year and wonder how the market will treat a less accommodative dot plot from the Fed at next Wednesday's FOMC meeting. A look at recent earnings reports, soybeans ahead of today's important WASDE report and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
09/12/202218 minutes 52 seconds
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Will market be allowed to go into hibernation until 2023?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Y3gQAi   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today, we look at the overall sense that market players don't want to take any strong new bets until we get to the other side of Dec 31. We also look US treasury yields dropping through pivotal levels at the longer end of the curve and the remarkable fact that the curve remains near its most inverted even as the 2-year yield is at local range lows. The market is increasingly convinced that Fed easing is set to start within 12 months after a bit more hiking next week and early next year. We also look at crude oil dynamics, natural gas in Europe, Swedish housing prices, weak outlook from US banks, the latest woes for Tesla, the Bank of Canada keeping CAD the weakest of G10 currencies, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and
08/12/202220 minutes 1 second
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US equity market limping at pivotal levels after sell-off extends

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3VBFGpt   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we note the US market continuing lower and closing near pivotal level, this time with no notable catalyst driving the selling, as US treasury yields actually dropped at the long end of the US yield curve, taking the yield curve inversion to a new cycle- and multi-decade extreme. It also looks like the easing of China's Covid policy is running out of steam as a factor. In commodities, we look at crude oil plunging to new lows despite alarming supply fundamentals, and wheat prices also on the defensive on unusually elevate export activity for the season. A look at today's Bank of Canada meeting, TSMC making even larger investments in the US, Apple postponing its EV plans and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hostin
07/12/202218 minutes 57 seconds
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Strong ISM Services survey a new bump in the road for bulls

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P6Apn2   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we are announcing our newly released 2023 Outrageous Predictions highlighting improbable, but not impossible, events that could really shake the markets. We discuss the reversal in S&P 500 futures to the big 4,000 level driven by a surprise beat on ISM Services Index yesterday suggesting that the US economy is reaccelerating again. The US yield move higher yesterday is also setting the stage for our attention on USDJPY in today's FX focus. On commodities our focus today is on the oil market given the demand uncertainties over China's reopening and supply worries over the Russian oil price cap. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy
06/12/202213 minutes 49 seconds
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Financial conditions continue to ease, ease, ease

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UvXqRy   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we note that the market seems to be in see-no-evil, hear-no-evil mode, as hot earnings data from the US on Friday was unable to sustain a reaction in treasury yields, with financial conditions at their easiest in months. Still, key economic indicators point to an incoming recession in Europe even as the EURUSD manages to pull above 1.0500. We also preview tonight's RBA meeting, interesting earnings reports this week and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
05/12/202216 minutes 6 seconds
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Equity markets fail to celebrate latest yield dip on soft US data.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XULGef   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we look at a slight divergence in reaction patterns across markets after a weaker than expected core PCE inflation reading and ISM Manufacturing survey in the US pushed treasury yields and the US dollar lower, but failed to support further equity market upside. Elsewhere, we round up interesting earnings reports from yesterday, discuss silver technicals and the crude oil and natural gas outlook, today's November US jobs report and more.  Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
02/12/202217 minutes 37 seconds
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’Tis the season, or at least the day, to be jolly.

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3OYS9Rp   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Today we look at the market exploding higher in the wake of the Fed Chair Powell speech on inflation and the labor market yesterday, as we note that Powell failed to specifically push back much against the current easing of financial conditions and market expectations that Fed policy will be loosening already by late next year and especially in 2024. But we also caution that, while the US equity market rallied through key resistance yesterday, the market has a tendency to react strongly to event risks on the day without notable follow through in following sessions. On that note, we also have important incoming data that can test yesterday's reaction in the form of the October US PCE inflation indicator ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report. We also look at the commodities market reaction to Powell's s
01/12/202218 minutes 50 seconds
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Can a hawkish Powell pour cold water on this market?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AVTRx9   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  Today we note that Fed Chair Powell is set to speak later today and will likely try to push back against the recent strong easing of financial conditions and pricing of hefty Fed rate cuts that the market has priced to start as early as late 2023. If Powell can't impress the market, the incoming US data might have to do so, with the November ADP private payrolls up today and the PCE inflation data tomorrow. Elsewhere, we zoom in on the latest on crude oil and commodity performance this month, talk Apple, Crowdstrike and incoming earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.<
30/11/202218 minutes 37 seconds
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Markets taking a strong view that Fed will succeed

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3urJOfP   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  Today we look at the market trying to recover its feet as it hopes that China will remain on the path toward reopening on fresh signs that it wants to avoid curbing activity excessively after recent civil unrest due to Covid restrictions. We also note, ahead of important incoming US data over the next couple of weeks and a Fed Chair Powell speech tomorrow, that the market is taking a very strong view on the path of Fed policy and the economy, assuming the Fed will succeed in its fight against inflation and will cut aggressively in 2024. Will Powell and/or the data challenge this pronounced view? We also look at electricity prices spiking in Europe, crude oil rebounding and wheat falling, stocks to watch and upcoming earnings reports and macro data. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities,
29/11/202215 minutes 55 seconds
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China protests are a powerful new distraction

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3AS3mgV   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  Today we look at how the market is absorbing the news of widespread protests in China against Covid policies there, from lower yields to lower crude oil prices. That combination offers strong support for the Japanese yen, while Apple risks a further haircut on the risk of widening production disruptions. It is worth noting that corn prices in China are diverging from prices elsewhere, also on Covid policy disruptions. Elsewhere, we consider the status of "de-globalization" (or is it re-globalization?), and look at incoming earnings and macro calendar events for the week ahead. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='https://www.ho
28/11/202214 minutes 52 seconds
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When will we shift from one-dimensional focus on US yields?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GK19Yo    - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  Today we look at the market still in complacent mode as it continues to celebrate easing US yields and the FOMC minutes Wednesday confirming the view that the Fed is set to slow its pace of tightening. We note that the US equity market is working into a critical resistance zone, just as the US dollar eyes important support, with the overriding question of when the market will begin to fret the impact of an oncoming recession rather than maintaining the one-dimensional focus on yields. Thoughts on Apple, commodity performance, platinum vs palladium, Natgas in Europe and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team <a href='https://www.h
25/11/202213 minutes 3 seconds
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Bad news is good news as the Fed pivot is alive

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XoM193   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -   Today we look at the market continuing to rally despite US Services PMI figures for November missed estimates suggesting the US economy continues to slow down. This means that equities right now interpret bad news as good news because it will force the Fed to pivot on the policy rate which will be net positive for equities. We also discuss expected PBOC easing, Riksbank's expected 75 basis point hike today, and the weakening USD helping financial conditions to ease globally. In commodities, our focus today is the energy market with Europe's gas market holding up well despite low volumes coming from Russia. Finally, we talk Deere earnings as the US agricultural equipment maker is delivering strong results as pricing power remain high on the back of high commodity prices on agricultural products.
24/11/202217 minutes 5 seconds
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Financial conditions continue to ease: any Fed pushback?

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3EyxcrO   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -   Today we look at the market bouncing back strongly yesterday as we await a data dump from the US today ahead of the long Thanksgiving weekend there. While the focus from the Fed is on how the FOMC delivers its "deceleration of tightening" message, it is worth noting that financial conditions are close to their easiest since the Fed began hiking in 75 basis point increments back in June. Will this receive any comments in the FOMC minutes release tonight? We also look at leading indicators pointing to an incoming recession, talk crude oil, copper and wheat, the RBNZ hiking 75 basis points overnight, stocks to watch and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Marke
23/11/202221 minutes 26 seconds
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Crypto and Tesla bubbleverse under siege

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3EwDBDI   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -   Today we look at the latest downbeat action in the equity market as we still await a more determined directional move after the multi-sigma upside explosion in the wake of the November 10 US CPI release. But it is interesting to note that the speculative nexus around crypto and Tesla are under intense pressure here and could prove a broader catalyst. We also look at the latest impact of rising Covid cases on commodities, the zany dump and pump yesterday in crude oil, the earnings and macro calendar ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by ASh
22/11/202218 minutes 14 seconds
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Zero Covid threat refuses to go away

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3Vd3jnt   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -   Today we look at downbeat sentiment on the latest concern that the reopening trade in China isn't going to happen any time soon with the first official deaths from Covid there in months reported. Elsewhere, we look at tight inverse correlation between risk sentiment and the US dollar and positioning in the US FX futures market, the holiday-shortened week in the US, gold, copper & crude oil, incoming earnings including Dell and Zoom Video, the macro calendar for this week (including the US Thanksgiving holiday) and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro m
21/11/202218 minutes 35 seconds
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Massive Op-Ex today: maybe meh now, but maybe mayhem another time

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GrdFvO    - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -   Today we look through key markets for the technical lay of the land, from the US and German equity markets to gold, US yields. We also note a very heavy crude oil market, with cycle support possibly coming into play in the days ahead. Elsewhere, we dive into some examples of the enormous rise in options trading and note the background risk this brings to the market, regardless of whether today's massive options expiry in the US on over $2 trillion in underlying assets proves a non-event. Today's pod features Saxo Technical Strategist Kim Cramer Larsson, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
18/11/202216 minutes 50 seconds
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Could weather be the next major trigger?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3URcx9q   - Click here to open an account with Saxo   -   Today we look at risk sentiment taking a breather after a particularly strong US October US Retail Sales report, although long US treasury yields fell on the day and took the yield curve inversion to its most negative in over forty years as markets continue to price a recession ahead. The key incoming data doesn't start rolling in for another couple of weeks, so we wonder if a possible shift in weather into proper winter mode could change the complacent stance in energy markets. Elsewhere, we wonder if the Budget Statement from UK Chancellor Hunt can continue to support sterling, look at the plunge in coffee prices, Nvidia and Siemens earnings, and more. Today's podfeatures Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Marke
17/11/202219 minutes 46 seconds