Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the main takeaways from the October CPI reports and what to expect from here. A fall in consumer energy prices brought some relief to DM consumers last month. However, after a sharp downshift in core inflation last quarter––from 4.7%ar in 2Q23 to 3.3%ar in 3Q23—global core inflation remained firm in October and the 3-month annualized rate has stabilized above 3%. This hints at stickiness in underlying inflation as a result of still firm services inflation which stands in stark contrast to the sharp slide in core goods inflation.   This podcast was recorded on 28 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4571422-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/

Ravi Balakrishnan, Allan Monks, Francis Diamond discuss their thoughts on the recent Autumn Statement in the UK. They talk through its economic impact, what it reveals about the fiscal and broader policy landscape in the UK, and the implications for markets   This podcast was recorded on November 27, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4568777-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4564625-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4568901-0   for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. <

We approach the end of the year thankful for a resilient global expansion that has weathered the storm of numerous adverse shocks and rapid policy tightening. But we also know that, while some may be looking to the coming months with tunes of “I’m dreaming of a soft-landing” in mind, the pressures continue to build. We end the year with less conviction than when we started but lean in the direction of an earlier end to the expansion.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Softer-than-expected inflation along with resilient consumer spending in the US has reignited the Goldilocks bid. However, a closer look shows sufficient reason to be cautious and recognize that the inflation threat is not eliminated. At the same time, a China that keeps producing more than it demands will remain a global disinflationary force. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Greg Fuzesi joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent underpeformance in European growth and why we could see an improvement from here. Euro area growth has been stagnating over the past year and is running well below its estimated potential. One key factor behind this weakness is a striking turn towards caution on the part of European consumers evident in a household saving rate that has risen well above its pre-pandemic levels and stalling consumer spending. Our view that the Euro area avoids a recession––we look for a 0.5% GDP gain this quarter and 0.6% in 2024­­––is predicated on an improvement in consumer spending in response to falling inflation, continued real income gains, and healthy balance sheets. However, the risk is that this year’s excessive consumer caution leads to a pullback in hiring.  While the manufacturing sector has likely done better than often claimed, it is hard to ignore the weakness in the latest PMIs, which we still believe are a reliable indica

The deceleration seen in the data of late raises questions. The latest US payrolls report points to a deceleration in hours, the October global PMI shows a step down in growth, and Western Europe is flirting with recession. Is this a loss of momentum to below potential growth in line with our forecast, or a more pernicious sign of something about to break? We believe the former. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.  

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy, discuss the October jobs report. This podcast was recorded on 03 Nov 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

A week of softer-than-expected data leads some to see earlier recession and others to see Goldilocks. We temper fearful conclusions from a “soft” US payroll report but see more concern in the retreat in the October business surveys. Nevertheless, we maintain our call for near-term resilience.  Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

US real GDP boomed last quarter but the more meaningful signal was in the strong nominal income gains that will support growth into year-end. This contrasts with a disappointing flash October PMI reading from Europe, underscoring our call for weakness to continue. While we see the odds of a Dec hike as higher than current pricing, we expect next week’s Fed to deliver a hawkish hold to see more data. The BoJ is expected to edge closer to removing YCC bands in favor of a more flexible approach to JGB interventions (though not next week). Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent tightening in financial conditions through the prism of the Fed staff’s new FCI-G index.    This podcast was recorded on October 25, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4536724-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Dan Silver discuss the main takeaways from the September CPI reports, the outlook for coming months and how we see central banks responding to the incoming data. The latest reports suggest core inflation may be stabilizing amidst significant sectoral and regional divergence. On net, we’ve marked higher our 4Q23 global core inflation forecast to 3.2%q/q annualized (ex China and Türkiye) from 2.8% a month ago; this implies only limited easing from the 3Q pace. In the US, the details of the September report prompted an upward revision to US core inflation which we now expect to rebound to 3.6%ar this quarter from 2.8% in 3Q. While we continue to see the Fed on hold, we think the latest CPI report reinforces the idea that the FOMC will continue to communicate a tightening bias. This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at <a href='http

The dynamic of resilient but divergent growth against a worrying backdrop of rising bond yields kicked into overdrive this week. The US and China both reported better-than-expected data that show a much stronger 3Q GDP outturn with solid September momentum into the current quarter. At the same time, the UST 10yr yield surged yet again lifting borrowing costs. Likely to skip November, the Fed has time to data-watch but strong growth and rising inflation skew risks to more tightening. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by CE-3 chief economist Jose Cerveira to discuss inflation developments in EM and the scope for central banks to cut rates in a more challenging global environment of higher US rates and a stronger dollar. Core inflation has fallen sharply, in some cases  even faster than expected, bringing run rates close to central bank targets. But the disinflation trend appears overly reliant on core goods and the risk is that weaker EM currencies will now push inflation higher again, particularly in the countries where labor markets remain tight and/or fiscal policies turn more expansionary. Thus, while there is still space for EM central banks––especially those with high real rates and ample FX buffers ––to cut rates, it is only natural that they will be more cautious.    This podcast was recorded on October 17, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at <a hr

The latest developments are a reminder that the return to normal still has a ways to go. In the US, core inflation bounced back in September—boosted by some of the stickier components. More broadly, the resilience in both inflation and growth is reinforcing the high-for-long stances of central banks even as financial and geopolitical shocks loom over the outlook. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Michael Hanson, Dan Silver, and Murat Tasci discuss the health of the US consumer. Recent benchmark GDP revisions imply more excess saving while liquid asset holdings and net worth have surged since the pandemic began. These should cushion US households against recent headwinds, and support our call for a continued, if soft, expansion next year. Speakers: Michael Hanson Daniel Silver Murat Tasci This podcast was recorded on 12 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4528206-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Amid plenty to worry about of late, we appreciate this week’s data showing a resilient global expansion. From our global PMI’s pointing to trend-like growth, to improvements in manufacturing bellwethers Asia and the US, to a robust payroll report in the US that comes with positive news on labor supply, the message is clearly positive. The risks from a weak Europe, rising bond yields, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not ignored, however. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Michael Feroli Samantha Azzarello This podcast was recorded on October 6, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

The jump in long-rates poses a risk of something breaking in the near-term and curtailing the expansion in the medium-term. Against a backdrop of strong US growth and resilient—though struggling—growth elsewhere, the central bank challenge to it balance these two forces while assuring inflation cools. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the August CPI reports and the inflation outlook for the coming quarter.    This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520743-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Amid a set of near-term headwinds from the oil shock, UAW strike, possible government shutdown the restart of student loan repayments, we maintain the US expansion continues. We have less conviction in Europe, were we now see GDP growth stalling amid a different set of headwinds. Making sense of this tension and how it resolves is important to the outlook. It is also a challenge faced by central banks trying to return inflation to target without generating a recession. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.  

Nora Szentivanyi, Joseph Lupton and Natasha Kaneva discuss the rise in oil prices since mid-year and its implications for global growth, inflation and monetary policy.    Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Economic and Policy Research Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 21 Sept 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4516358-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4510542-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

A week of better than expected data from the US and China support our view that the goods sector is lifting. The latest jump in the price of oil is a concern, however. Next week’s flash Sep PMIs are important to watch. The ECB delivered a dovish hike this week rather than the hawkish hold we see for the Fed next week. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

We maintain the global expansion has legs. While the latest (and upcoming) activity data show somewhat more moderation than anticipated, this comes after stronger readings. At the same time, inflation is cooling. Combined, the case is set for central banks to stay on hold and assess the outlook. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

This week’s US reports provide a number of comforting signals to the Fed, putting any doubt about a September pause to rest. The signal on demand was strong and we raised our 3Q23 GDP forecast to a 3.5%ar gain. But there was positive signals on labor supply, productivity and signs that excess demand for labor is moderating. The signal from this week’s PCE price report was also constructive, although it also highlights the difficulty in accurately assessing underlying inflation trends. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Daniel Silver This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy, discuss the August jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 01 Sept 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views. Core goods disinflation gathered steam in July on the back of manufacturing sector weakness, fading supply chain bottlenecks and excess China supply. Services inflation remains stickier and generally still above CB comfort zones. In the Euro area, we look for another relatively firm 0.36%m/m sa core HICP gain but now see the ECB on hold in September. With the Fed on hold, a number of EM CBs are set to keep easing in response to significant cooling in core inflation.  Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research Greg Fuzesi, European Economic and Policy Research This podcast was recorded on August 24, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4497

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by China economists Grace Ng and Tingting Ge to discuss our recently published research note examining China’s deflation and its spillover to the rest of the world. China’s lockdowns and re-opening played a significant role in pandemic supply-chain dynamics that are responsible for much of the current slide in global core goods inflation. China’s policy supports have boosted supply more than demand resulting in domestic production running ahead of domestic demand; this imbalance has driven deflation in both domestic and export prices. The slide in China export prices, alongside CNY weakness, is evident in material declines in trading partner import prices. This unexpected development is a potent force aiding near-term global core goods disinflation which we expect to slide towards its pre-pandemic norm in coming months. Unless China’s policy mix changes to support demand more powerfully, there remain downside risks on near term growth and inflation. <p

Incoming news supports our forecast for global growth resilience but the widening divide between US strength and China weakness generates risks that financial market stress might emerge. At the same time, the compression in profits which we think will eventually undermine corporate health is moving more slowly than anticipated increasing hopes for a soft-landing scenario. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Sin Beng Ong and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the near-term and longer-term prospects for Asia’s tech-sector. Following the sharp deceleration in tech-related output since 2Q22, a lift in production is evident, led by Korea and now Taiwan. With rising global demand for semiconductors driven increasingly by sector-specific and idiosyncratic forces, the tech cycle could become less synchronized with the broader industrial cycle. Over time, it could thus loose some of its bellwether properties for the global manufacturing sector. Beyond the near-term lift, rising tensions between the US and China also bear watching. Some of this shift is already evident in the decline in tech exports from Korea and Taiwan to China but also evident in the material reduction in the share of Asia ex. Japan in global semiconductor shipments for the first time since 1986. Given recent industrial policies in both the US and Europe, this shift could continue to proceed rapidly.   This podcast was re

Recent weeks have trimmed downside growth risks and upside inflation risks. This constructive alignment of data leads us to entertain the Goldilocks scenario. Next week’s growth data should help support the growth part of the story. But there is enough inflation still out there to question whether we settle above central bank comfort zones. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

In this episode of the Global Data Pod: Research Rap, Joe Lupton and Bruce Kasman discuss a recently released research note assessing the global spillover effects from this year’s positive (US) and negative (Euro area and China) growth shocks. We quantify the historical impact of regional shocks filtered through the lens of GDP, our nowcasters (NRI), and our Forecast Revision Indexes (FRI). The results confirm that GDP shocks emanating from Europe and China have less of an impact on the global economy overall than those from the US. This owes in part to the powerful spillover of US to global financial conditions. As financial conditions are currently reinforcing the message that US shocks dominate, we expect the recently upward revised and more resilient US economy to set the tone for the global economy even as Western Europe and China are expected to continue to deliver sub-par growth. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded

Latin America economists Cassiana Fernandez, Gabriel Lozano and Diego Pereira join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the region’s easing cycles that kicked off with bolder-than-expected rate cuts. While risks of more front-loaded easing, especially in Brazil, have risen, there are important divergence across the region. Mexico’s business cycle and policy response vis-à-vis other major LatAm countries in particular remains striking and overheating concerns point to renewed risks of a later start of the easing cycle. In all, despite significant disinflation and rate cuts priced in by markets, we see LatAm’s monetary policy stances remaining restrictive through next year. Much will depend on the sustainability of the disinflation process, fiscal policy responses to the economic slowdown as well as global developments. This podcast was recorded on 8 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at <

The July data releases reinforce our conviction that the global expansion has more life. The global all-industry PMI remains at a level consistent with trend-like growth while the US payroll report shows ongoing solid job gains. The momentum loss in both, however, is a reminder that growth paths are rarely smooth. Even if the near-term threats are fading, resilience in growth along with tight labor markets and inflation above central bank comfort zones keeps an observational equivalence between our “Boil the Frog” and “Goldilocks” scenarios. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Michael Feroli Samantha Azzarello This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Mike Hanson is joined by EM economists Sajjid Chinoy, Vinicius Moreira and Katherine Marney to discuss the rising probability of a strong El Niño, which could push up global inflation, especially through food this year and into the next. The inflationary effect could be amplified through rising commodity prices. While El Niño thinks globally, its effects tend to be quite localized, with the most pronounced impacts in Latin America and parts of Asia. But the impacts have varied by episode, and the starting points for crops and energy look good this cycle. Speakers: Michael Hanson Katherine Marney Vinicius Moreira Sajjid Chinoy This podcast was recorded on August 2, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461348-0, <a href='https://www.jpmm.com/research/con

A week of data that trims both downside risks on growth and upside risks on inflation are giving a bid to Goldilocks. As we noted in recent weeks, don’t fight the cyclical sweet spot we are entering. While Europe is the weak link, the US stands out this week with strong 2Q GDP and solid consumer spending in June. The Fed and ECB hike but turn data dependent, while the BoJ loosened its YCC. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.  

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views. In  this month’s edition we highlight  our recent research on the likely impact from El Niño and our forecast for US core inflation to prove sticky around 3%.    Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research Michael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research   This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4469084-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461348-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4454302-0 for more information; please visit <a href='http

There is much to debate about whether global expansion will come to an end around the turn of the year, later next year, or even later (Goldilocks). Regardless, the near-term picture is looking more resilient and if so, a turn back up in the goods sector should help offset some moderation in service sector. Next week’s flash July PMIs will be key to watch, as will be the guidance coming out of the Fed, ECB, and BoJ. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.  

The "Debatable" series provides a window on the discussions taking place within J.P. Morgan economic research on key issues in the outlook. Here Malcolm Barr moderates as Bruce Kasman argues the case for inflation to remain problematically elevated relative to central bank targets, while Joe Lupton and Nora Szentivanyi argue that the recent inflation is surge is transitory and the policy actions already taken will push inflation back into central banks' comfort zones.   This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

June reports suggest that core inflation is now moving lower and risks to our forecast – that core inflation decelerates from a 5%ar in 1H23 to a 3.7%ar this quarter – are shifting to the downside. Much of the near-term downward pressure is coming from core goods inflation. The delayed unwind of supply chain price pressure appears to have taken hold and is combining with the disinflationary impulse associated with manufacturing sector weakness and falling China export prices. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Nora Szentivanyi This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.  

The service sector remains a growth engine at midyear, despite clear signs that normalization lift is beginning to fade. With manufacturing survey still pointing to weakness, this engine will need to continue to be the primary source of global growth this quarter. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Michael Feroli, Economic Research Samantha Azzarello, Global Research   This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Joseph Lupton take stock of the rise in household (and overall private sector) debt service ratios in the wake of the sharp rise in interest rates since 2021-22 and discuss what to expect from here. While the projected increases in DSRs this year look manageable on the whole, there is significant variation across countries: the most interest rate-sensitive are seeing a faster pass-through; differences in leverage and the size of rate hikes also matter. Whereas many in DM have yet to see a significant rise in DSRs, the bulk of EM’s rise is likely behind us as EM central banks started hiking earlier and are already shifting towards rate cuts even as DM remains in tightening mode. Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research Joseph Lupton, Global Economic Research This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at <a

While our modal views on the global outlook are not changing much, risks of imminent recession are fading and the likelihood of an intra-cycle lift should not be ignored. The goods sector is most primed for a bounce in this case, but the fate of the medium-term outlook will rest more on service sector normalization and the broader sensitivities to past policy tightening. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views. This podcast was recorded on June 28, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4447959-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Our midyear outlook published this week maintains that a recession is not imminent but will take time to manifest as rates rise further. However, the data out this week from the ugly flash June PMIs across the developed markets to another high US claims reading raises the risk that, rather than a distinct break, the expansion is grinding into a recession more gradually but sooner than expected. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Gabriel Lozano to discuss how Mexico is benefitting from the reshuffling of global trade and investment, primarily outside of China, and how much further this trend could run. While Mexico has caught up with China in terms of its US import share, domestic factors including institutional hurdles, low productivity and competitiveness will likely limit the reach and depth of “near-shoring” despite Mexico’s cost and location advantages.   This podcast was recorded on June 21, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4281790-0   for more information; please visit www.jpm

Central banks are signaling a resolve to continue raising policy rates and a “boil the frog” scenario is becoming increasingly likely. In this regard,  the Fed delivered a pause but guided towards two further rate hikes, pointing to a hike in July as a reasonable possibility. The ECB was even stronger in guidance towards a further hike next month and the Bank of England will likely hike and signal more to come next week. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

While rate decisions look relatively well signaled at next week’s G3 meetings, forward guidance is in flux. The Fed’s pause will be hawkish and likely accompanied by a rise in the dots to show an additional hike this year. The ECB is likely to eschew strong guidance, keeping uncertainty high about where they will pause. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC band but signal that the start of rate normalization is not near. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Nicolaie Alexandru and Katherine Marney to discuss vulnerabilities of the EM Edge economies to higher interest rates, slower growth and lower oil prices. Amid higher global interest rates, several EM Edge economies have lost market access and have turned to multilateral funding. Tighter funding is coming against the backdrop of wide fiscal deficits, larger debt stocks and lower reserves stocks. Declining oil prices also offer mixed benefits to the EM Edge group as global growth moderates. Against this backdrop, efforts to improve debt sustainability have become even more pressing. Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research Katherine Marney, EM, Economic and Policy Research This podcast was recorded on June 8, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at <a href='http

Speakers: Joseph Lupton, Senior Global Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy   This podcast was recorded on June 5, 2023.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4429734-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428335-0,  and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4405286-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

From downside risks in the US and upside risks in Europe and China just a few months ago, we now are seeing fading tail risks in the US (banks stress and debt ceiling) and improving data pointing to upside risks while recent data have taken out the upside in Europe and China. Although we still see the Fed pausing this month, the bias to hike will remain. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Michael Feroli Samantha Azzarello This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Although zero-COVID and its removal have been dominant drivers of China growth over the past year, the outlook hinges on a recovery in business sentiment which has been depressed by a housing correction and a set of government policies which had generated private sector uncertainty. We expect those drags to gradually fade, and the recovery in business spending from depressed levels should be an important source of China growth.  Speakers: Bruce Kasman Jahangir Aziz  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

With the full set of April CPI releases to hand, Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook. Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi Michael Hanson  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi, Sajjid Chinoy and Sonja Keller discuss EM’s debt dynamics and why boosting GDP growth is so crucial to achieving post-pandemic debt sustainability. While some of the pandemic surge in EM debt ratios has been pared back in last two years, reducing them further will be much more challenging in an environment of slowing nominal GDP growth and rising interest rates.    This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at   https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395071-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4326109-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4402859-0 <a href='https://www.jpmm.com/research/conten

We downgrade our current quarter forecast for China and recognize the looming risks associated with extending the US debt ceiling. But the overall message from the global economy is one of still solid growth amidst early signs that a weak manufacturing sector is poised to recover. The Fed and other central banks are inclined to pause but we would resist describing these moves as the end of the tightening cycle. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week’s news of tightening US bank lending standards and a sharp rise in unemployment insurance claims fuels worries about an impending recession. However, beneath the surface, there are reasons to fade the downsides somewhat. More importantly, April activity data are shaping up for a solid bounce after softness late last quarter—echoing the global survey data and US payrolls report already in hand. While we still see recession taking hold eventually, we also maintain our call that its not going to come in the next few months. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi, Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson discuss the tightening in US, Euro area and EM credit conditions through the lens of the latest bank lending surveys, the implications for the growth outlook and central bank decisions. While these surveys show that that credit conditions did tighten further last quarter and loan demand continued to fall, the moves were not as severe as some might have feared. Indeed, against a backdrop of continued resilience in recent activity data, the latest surveys do not indicate an imminent break in growth. Rather, we expect this drag to accumulate over the year, contributing to a mild year-end recession in the US in our base case.   Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research Greg Fuzesi, Economic and Policy Research Michael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research   This podcast was recorded on 10 May 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can vie

The Fed moved towards a pause this week as it sees clouds on the horizon related to bank stress and the debt ceiling deadline. But the data continues to emphasize that the battle to lower is far from done. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Feroli This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Speakers Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy This podcast was recorded on May 5, 2023. Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April payrolls report.   This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

In this week’s Research Rap of the Global Data Pod, Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss the launch of our natural language processor (NLP) tracking Fed, ECB and BoE communication. The output of this analysis is synthesized in the J.P. Morgan Hawk-Dove Score (HDS) that generates a deep archive of central bank policy statements and speeches. It tracks well the generally perceived shifts in central bank attitudes over the past few decades. At this week’s meetings the HDS highlights the dovish tilt at both central bank press conferences. For the Fed, the HDS fell to its least hawkish stance in nearly a year. For the ECB, the press conference maintains a more hawkish stance than last year’s meetings.        This podcast was recorded on May 4, 2023.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/resear

Despite downside surprises, there is plenty of constructive signals in this week’s set of data releases. Global GDP growth last quarter is tracking 1%-pt above potential and 2%-pt above start-of-year expectations. While momentum is slowing, the sources of lift still point to resilience this quarter. Next week’s Fed and ECB to deliver another round of hikes. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the global CPI data for March and the outlook for 2Q and beyond.    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4392511-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4385270-0,  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

A robust 1Q23 is contrasted with signs of momentum loss through the quarter. However, while some data (US initial claims) raise concern, the latest data point to ongoing resilience. Combined with banking sector stress looking to be contained, the odds of the “boil the frog” scenario are increased and we look for another round of rate hikes in May from the major central banks. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty following the recent credit shock has led some central banks to pause and others to slow — but sticky core CPI, still-tight labor markets, and elevated inflation expectations are keeping the pressure on. Some signs of cooling (but not cracking) are emerging in the US, whereas we now expect an even stronger rebound in China and see resilience in the latest Euro area data.  Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

First-quarter global activity looks to have strengthened materially and, while we are looking for a deceleration in the current quarter, the March surveys are still pointing to strong momentum. Ahead of tomorrow’s US payroll report, we are expecting a slowing in job growth but to a still-solid pace. Combined with inflation that continues to run hot in most corners of the world, and in the US where next week’s core CPI is projected to have accelerated for a fourth straight month in March, central banks are caught between overheating and a potential credit crunch. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Curation and Strategy, discuss the March payrolls report.   Speakers: Michael Feroli Samantha Azzarello This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The global expansion is looking even more resilient than expected, raising questions about the likelihood of our call for a US recession and global slowdown later this year. With global GDP growth over the past two quarters tracking a full %-point strong than expected in our November outlook, the profit margin compression we see as a catalyst for recession later this year has yet to start.  The latest credit shock could be a game changer, but healthy fundamentals are likely to temper the drag. While headwinds are building and supports are fading, either greater financial stress or more central bank tightening may be needed to take steam out of the expansion. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/

The risk of a meaningful tightening in credit conditions raises the odds of a US recession and potentially a global one as well. However, it is unclear whether the fallout from recent events is a newly-added headwind or a consequence of central banks’ intended slowdown. For now, growth and inflation are running hotter than expected even if the credit shock is also larger than expected. Consequently, forecasts remain unchanged even if tail risks have fattened. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Feroli to discuss the Fed’s response to the recent banking stress, historical parallels and the likely economic fallout. A rough estimate is that slower loan growth by mid-size banks could subtract 0.5-1% off the level of GDP in coming quarters. We believe this is broadly consistent with our outlook of a Fed-induced recession later this year. The Fed isn’t done, in our view, and we look for another 25bp hike this week, and a final hike in May.     This podcast was recorded on Mar. 21, 2023.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4361113-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

Elevated financial market stress and uncertainty have arisen against a backdrop of sticky high inflation, still-tight labor markets, and recent upward revisions to growth in the US and China for this quarter. The ECB reacted to this quandary by hiking 50bp as previously signaled and maintaining a tightening bias, but removing any formal guidance and noting its available tools to address market dysfunction. We expect a broadly similar message from the Fed as it hikes 25bp next week. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

As we look to the coming spring, the data is anything but clear. This week’s news points to ongoing resilience while Chair Powell’s comments underscored that this may be too much of a good thing. Next week’s US CPI report looks to be hot yet again, moving the needle toward a 50bp Fed hike. The ECB is on deck for next week and has already pointed to 50bp. Also up next week will be the key China activity data for Jan-Feb. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The news on the week points to even greater resilience in the global expansion and more upside surprises on inflation. What’s a worried central bank to do? With a number of key data releases and central bank meetings coming up in March, the various scenarios of our outlook are considered: from soft-landings, to boiling frogs, to wrathful old testament central banks. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Jahangir Aziz to discuss China’s reopening and spillovers to the rest of EM. A consumption and services-led recovery in China points to a more muted spillover than typically implied by China’s headline growth. But if the rebound and reduced growth volatility spur a positive shift in business sentiment, the full impact can be larger than the sum of the parts. Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4341171-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures

In this week’s Research Rap of the Global Data Pod, Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Alex Wise to discuss our recent special report on public sector debt sustainability. After gradually rising 35%-pt in the 30yrs since the mid-1970s, government debt in the developed markets has jumped roughly 50%-points in just 15 years. A framework is considered for assessing debt sustainability, while thoughts are provided exploring the path ahead. Speakers Bruce Kasman, Economic and Policy Research Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research Alex Wise, Long-term Strategy This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4340654-0.pdf  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/rese

Another week of data showing resilient growth—even strong in the case of the US—along with upside surprises in inflation add to the risks that the most rapid global hiking cycle in over forty years has longer to run. While we are willing to fade some of the signal in the punchy January data, the pressure is on for February data to show a return to the path of moderating growth and inflation in line with the goals of central banks to generate a soft-landing. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Nigeria faces a pivotal election this coming Saturday where voters will choose a new president. Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa with vast oil wealth, but years of mismanagement have worsened imbalances and it has failed to fully benefit from the commodity windfall. From multiple exchange rate regimes to Central Bank quasi-fiscal spending to ballooning fiscal expenditure to high inflation, the next president will have a full in-tray. But based on the polling there is a chance that this election represents a break from the past. In this edition of the Global Data Pod, Katie Marney is joined by Gbolahan Taiwo to discuss Nigeria’s election, what the polls say, the tall task ahead, and policy priorities for the next president. Speakers: Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Gbolahan Taiwo, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research This podcast was recorded on February 22, 2023. This communication is provided for i

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Bruce Kasman to discuss why the widely held that monetary policy is already restrictive may be wrong. Central banks have been downshifting the pace of rate hikes based on the view neutral real rates remains close to zero in developed markets. But dramatic changes to the cyclical backdrop following the pandemic shock, along with the erosion of policy credibility and higher risk premia in several EMs, point towards higher neutral policy rates. Absent a recession taking hold this year, we expect views about the appropriate level of policy rates to shift higher. But if the dramatic rate hikes (400bp in DM and nearly 500bp in EM) generate a recession then the neutral rate rise will be obscured for some time. The path to the next recession is hard to tie down, but risks are skewed in the direction of this dynamic taking longer and requiring higher rates than markets expect. Incoming data suggest that the path may not incorporate any meaningful pause bu

The latest data show a US (and global) economy that is not only proving more resilient than some had feared but also more inflationary. The odds have risen for an expansion that may be in need of central banks stepping on the breaks more than we had expected and even more than markets. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Ayako Fujita and Benjamin Shatil to discuss the latest developments in the Bank of Japan’s path towards monetary policy normalization. We do not expect the new BoJ nominations to materially affect the timing of YCC removal which we still see taking place around mid-2023. However, rising demand-side pressures on prices and growing market pressures suggest risks are for an earlier move. Our forecast also anticipates an eventual exit from negative interest rates (NIRP) by 2024. The BoJ’s shift will have important implications for capital flows and the yen as Japanese investors continue to rotate investments from foreign assets back to domestic debt. This podcast was recorded on February 13, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4332950-0.pdf

We continue to process January activity readings which point to the US expansions remaining intact while the China reopening bounce gathers. But this week’s news was the surprising firmness in January core CPI readings. The message of positive growth and inflation news should be reinforced by next week’s US reports where we look for a rise in core CPI of 0.5% m/m and a 2.2% bounce in retail sales.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Katherine Marney to discuss an improved macro landscape for EM and what it means for growth, capital flows and monetary policy. The fading of key near-term headwinds has led to a strong start for EM capital flows, and we believe these sources of support, including China’s re-opening, disinflation, and reduced near-term recession risks can last a while. Prospects of a late 2Q Fed pause, weaker USD and better global growth should open up space for EM central banks to ease monetary policy this year. Sustained strength in the US labor market poses a risk to this view. But provided inflation eases as we expect, and barring a re-pricing of the US dollar, we think the macro backdrop can remain supportive for EM.    Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research   This podcast was recorded on 7 February 2023. This communication is provided

On this week’s Global Data Pod Edge, our focus is on Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain. Our economists covering the region had one full day of meetings in each of them. They met with authorities and local companies. The podcast discusses recent developments and 2023 outlook for this set of GCC economies. The mood in the area remains positive after a strong year which saw high growth thanks to the rebound in hydrocarbon production as well as a strong and resilient non-hydrocarbon sector performance. On top of that, the region experienced a limited amount of inflationary pressure, well below anything seen in other Edge countries or around the entire globe. Hydrocarbon prices are expected to continue to be supportive but surely some differentiation remains amongst countries and expectations for their 2023 performance. We invited two of our Edge Economists, Anatoliy Shal and Francesco Arcangeli, who recently returned from a business trip from the area t

After a few weeks of data fanning worries of a near-term recession, this week’s activity data provided relief. The global January PMIs improved broadly across countries and sectors. In the US, a gangbuster payroll report belied a number of more anecdotal reports suggesting labor market retrenchment. Also, the US consumer looks to have opened their wallets in January for motor vehicles. Not all is rosy, as the industry data out of Asia continue to be ugly and the risks outside of China are skewed to the downside. News on capex spending is also softening. Moreover, while US and European resilience is welcomed, too much strength reinforces the risk of more aggressive rate hikes that risk recession later. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 J

The EM Edge economies are a diverse group across the globe—from investment-grade countries, including some large oil-exporting economies, to sovereigns long since in financial distress. In between are many frontier markets with varying degrees of vulnerabilities. Understanding external financing needs and sources is a critical piece of the analytical puzzle for such economies, where funding needs, external and domestic, act as binding constraints that shape economic policies. This year brings signs that several sources of stress that have buffeted emerging markets could be ebbing: global food and energy inflation are slowing. Reopening in China may help offset downside risks to growth elsewhere. Signs that inflation has peaked in the US have raised hopes for a soft landing that would allow the Fed to relax its hawkish stance. Important risks remain, however, including a scenario in which disinflation stalls and global central banks continue tight

Next week will deliver three eventful central bank meetings as we expect the Fed, ECB, and BoE to continue to hike but also provide guidance on the path ahead while also maintaining optionality. Nevertheless, with rates restrictive, central banks have become more data sensitive. In this regard, next week will also deliver a set of key data on growth, inflation, and labor markets. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Dan Silver to discuss the 1H23 global inflation outlook. We anticipate that the slump in manufacturing, fading commodity price shocks and easing supply bottlenecks will drop global goods inflation to 1%ar in 1H23. Regionally, we expect downward pressure to be concentrated in Europe where the benefits of the unwind in the natural gas price shock is substantial. Emerging markets should also see a large drop in goods inflation, helped by a rebound in EM currencies and lagged effects of supply chain normalization. While China’s re-opening is a key reflationary impulse, we do not expect it to disrupt the near-term global disinflation trend. The drop in goods inflation bolsters the case for a central bank pause. In Emerging markets, central banks are already moving to the sidelines, and we see eight countries cutting policy rates this year. The bar for a pause is higher in DM and will also depend on labor market and wage develo

Having trimmed near-term recession risks recently, this week delivered stronger than expected data from China and a reassessment upward of our European outlook. However, not all is up. Disappointing US retail sales and IP data raise some concerns, but we are inclined to fade this given still-solid fundamentals. Fed speak this week shows growing comfort with 25bp, while hawkish comments from the ECB suggests a longer road to terminal. The BoJ left YCC unchanged as we expected, but disappointed markets. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan’s Chief U.S. Economist, is joined by Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill, for a discussion on policy, politics and the U.S. economy. Among the topics discussed, the two explore what implications the new leadership in Congress could have for government spending, and also take an early look at the 2024 presidential election.   Speakers: Michael Feroli Bob Cusack   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

After a week in which growth prospects for 1H23 improved, inflation prospects improved as well this week. The disinflation trends that began in early 4Q22 continued through yearend as supply conditions look to be moving into better alignment with demand—a key condition that central banks need to see. But the journey has further to run, and the improvements will only be enough to get policy rates to hold in the coming months—not to start cutting. China re-opening is a positive for growth but the inflation impulse to the rest of the world will be keenly watched. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Since the last JPMTV in mid-December, the news has been mixed but on balance shaves the risks of a near-term global recession, and boosts slightly the odds of a soft-landing while leaving a two-thirds chance of a recession by late-23/early-24. China’s COVID-drag looks worse but also points to a sooner-rebound, while stronger US expenditure data point to a more robust 4Q22. We are not out of the woods as the manufacturing sector looks particularly fragile and the Fed remains geared to stamping out inflation risks. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

A busy week of central bank meetings largely delivered on expectations, with the Fed and ECB slowing the pace of hikes to 50bp but underscoring their hawkish forward guidance. With Fed/ECB projected inflation running well above our forecasts next year, one question will be how they will respond if inflation undershoots those hawkish views. A special guest, Chief China economist Haibin Zhu, joins the call to discuss the rapidly changing China outlook. This will be the last episode for the year. Happy holidays to all. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton Haibin Zhu This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

China appears to be relaxing its zero-COVID policy which will eventually open the door for a substantial growth rebound. However, a starting point of low immunity and limited health care capacity points to a bumpy growth path in 2023. It’s impact on the global economy depends on two key linkages – the impact of stronger demand on commodity prices and the impact of rising COVID cases on supply. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The near-term is characterized by a number of cross-currents, including brewing concerns about China, but the balance remains one of resilience. This week’s November PMIs paint a grim picture for global industry but other data show upside risk to the current-quarter growth outlook in the US and Europe. Global inflation is past its peak but remains elevated. The growth/inflation message reinforces our call for further rate hikes followed by an extended hold, but the risks around this are debated. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We probe key issues raised in our recently published 2023 global economic outlook. In the face of near-term risks to China and Western Europe we continue to  see the global economy to move forward on the back of fading supply-shocks that lowers inflation and fading DM fiscal drags. This will not, however, likely deliver a soft-landing scenario and we discuss the alternative scenarios in which the US and global economy could slip into recession over 2022-23.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton Greg Fuzesi Jahangir Aziz   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

After a late start to the hiking cycle, central banks have put in place a policy path that is expected to generate a sharp slowing in global growth—and a US recession—that will contain inflation pressures. This will take several quarters however as consumers are getting a near-term boost from fading inflation. The benefits are not felt evenly, with the US tracking strong growth his quarter, Europe expected to slide into recession, and China’s homegrown headwinds holding growth to below potential. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

While not overreacting to one month of data, a welcome deceleration in US inflation this week points to both a consumer that is set for a marked improvement in purchasing power growth as well as a Fed that can slow its pace of hikes and eventually conclude by early next year. We maintain that recession risks are more of a concern for 2H23 rather than coming quarters, but recent indications of a sharp tightening in bank lending conditions raises some concern. China also remains a downside risk. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The latest PMIs are consistent with the global economy settling back to the lackluster pace of growth is has averaged this year, but the momentum-loss is a concern even if tempered by further signs of ongoing strength in labor markets. The Fed pivoted but in the hawkish direction this week as did ECB rhetoric, while a more nuanced message is coming from other central banks. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Katherine Marney to discuss the recently launched EM capital flows monitor, a new tool for tracking and nowcasting capital flows in Emerging Markets EM capital flows have become more diversified in the last ten years. FDI and loans carry more weight. Portfolio flows have weakened. Resident flows have become as large as non-resident flows. This is starkly different from the pre-2013 era, when resident outflows were small and capital flow dynamics were largely driven by foreign portfolio flows.   This podcast was recorded on October 31, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4237103-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4247869-0.pdf, <a href='https://www.jpmm.com/resear

A macro pivot is underway with US and China GDP having bounced back last quarter after contracting in 1H, and with Europe now sliding into a recession this quarter. However, inflation remains high and surprising to the upside in both the US and Europe, tempering any chance of a material central bank pivot. Next week, we expect more hikes from the Fed, BoE, Norges, and RBA. If our forecasts are right, the global hiking cycle comes to an end by 1Q23. But this will require a significant moderation in inflation. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Mike Feroli, Greg Fuzesi and Jose Cerveira to discuss recent trends in inflation expectation surveys across the US, Euro area and CE-3, and what these mean for monetary policy outlooks. While longer-term consumer inflation expectations have generally not become unmoored, short-term measures have been more elevated of late. Even as global headline inflation has moderated in recent months, underlying pressures remain intense. A particular concern is that elevated inflation could get embedded into wage- and price-setting behavior, making it much more challenging—and ultimately more costly—to return inflation to target. The amount of economic pain needed to get inflation back down to central bank targets varies by country and region, but a painless disinflation is unlikely anywhere. The large shocks working their way through economies are not yet giving a clear sense of where inflation will ultimately settle. Survey measures of price and h

Global policy rates outside China/Turkey are up over 300bp in the past year. Beyond the direct impact of higher borrowing costs on growth, the risks are that something breaks in the financial system. From the GFC to the Taper Tantrum, central banks have learned a lot and the rapid response to the pandemic was a case in point. But the UK flap is also a reminder that there are unknown unknowns to worry about. For now, central banks are focused in inflation—to be underscored by next week’s expected 75bp ECB hike and even a possible shift in tone from the BoJ. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Ayako Fujita, Benjamin Shatil and Yuka Mera. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC policy in March next year, Kuroda’s last meeting before the end of his term, alongside broadening inflation momentum. But until that time, policy faces a tension between maintaining a functioning JGB market and limiting the impact of dovish monetary policy on currency stability. We do not expect the BoJ to provide any advance signal ahead of tweaking policy, but think every meeting from hereon is probably live. We do not expect a change at the October meeting, but nor is it a zero-probability event. This podcast was recorded on Oct 21, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4231649-0, https:/

Recession risks abound and the mood at this week’s IMF meetings in Washington D.C. was downbeat as people expect central banks to keep pressing the break until something actually breaks in the expansion. But timing matters and the near-term drop in headline inflation is pointing to resiliency more so than fragility. While financial tightening risks morphing into outright stress in areas that are hard to foresee, the biggest risk remains a central-bank induced recession that takes shape much further down the road (like 12-18 months from now). Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The latest surveys for September show the global expansion slowing but continuing. In the US, strong job growth (albeit a moderation) makes the case for a 75bp hike at the next Fed meeting. Speakers:  Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on October 7, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Turmoil in UK markets this week raises the specter of broadening financial stress beyond its shores. We fade this concern owing to the lack of imbalances that tend to amplify such shocks. However, those same strong fundamentals keep us focused on the key threat to the global expansion: central banks that need to press the breaks a lot more than anticipated. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Central banks continue to tighten aggressively with the DM moving aggressively and more muted action from EM central banks. But the pressure for more is there with labor markets having yet to show signs of easing and EM central banks leaning on FX intervention to limit their currency depreciation. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week we downgraded the UK outlook but see scope for more policy support across Europe; conversely, better August activity data in China do not quell our concerns over COVID lockdowns and a weak real estate sector. Another 75bp move by the Fed headlines a busy upcoming week of central bank hiking. We now see the Fed’s policy rate reaching 4.25% early next year. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

While Europe remains the weakest link in the global outlook, rapidly rising natural gas inventories combined with continued large doses of fiscal support are tempering downside tail risks. Risks remain skewed to the downside in China. Against this backdrop, major DM central banks are on track to hike at the fastest pace this quarter since 1980. With the inflation threat still unvanquished, more hikes are to come. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We are increasingly confident that the global economy will avoid a recession. This owes largely to improvements in the US where a resilient labor market looks set to combine with falling inflation to boost spending. By contrast, surging inflation in Europe—which surprised to the upside this week—is expected to spark a recession. And in China, headwinds are building and we lower the outlook. Against this backdrop, the Fed and ECB are still focused on getting rates above or at least back to neutral respectively. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

No mind tricks in Fed Chair Powell’s brief but forceful message that more restrictive policy is coming and the Fed will not prematurely reverse course. With another solid US jobs report expected next week, we see the Fed hiking 75bp in September. This week also saw us put a deeper recession and higher inflation into our Euro area outlook, whereas more fiscal support in China reduces the downside risks to growth there. Speakers: Michael Hanson Daniel Silver This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week’s data highlight regional divergences: US IP and retail sales were good, China’s domestic demand and real estate investment were not, and a surge in natural gas prices risks deeper downturns across Europe. Elevated inflation should keep DM central banks hiking further – we added 75bp to our BoE call for this year and look for Chair Powell to stress the Fed’s focus on getting inflation down at Jackson Hole next week. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

July CPI readings signify that a significant slowing of global inflation momentum is underway, largely due to falling energy prices. Softer demand and easing supply pressures should help bring down core as well. But with natural gas prices surging, Europe may stand out with limited disinflation and a contraction by year-end. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Despite an onslaught of supply shocks, the global expansion looks to have continued through July. Risks remain elevated, as the July global PMIs this week showed a concerning loss of momentum across sectors and regions—including Asia. However, a huge upside surprise in US job gains suggests employers continue to expand. With recession risks having faded some and headline inflation set to slow sharply, the focus is now on how aggressive central banks will need to act to remove underlying price pressures. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on August 5, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Daniel Silver to discuss our inflation forecasts that see Euro area inflation remaining elevated in 2H22 in contrast to significant moderation in the US and many EM economies. High inflation, boosted by surging natural gas prices, plays a key role in our forecast for Western Europe to slide into a mild recession in 2H22 whereas easing commodity price inflation should boost household purchasing power elsewhere. The July CPI reports likely mark the beginning of this phase of inflation divergence that also augurs a rotation toward weaker relative European growth. We now expect Euro area inflation to remain at a 9%ar this quarter, boosted significantly by upward pressure on energy and food prices. At the same time, we are expecting a large drop in US CPI energy to lower headline gains to 0.2-0.3%m/m. A moderation in food price pressures should be significant in holding EM CPI gains to 0.3-0.4%m/m in coming months‑‑half their

The US contracted again last quarter, while the Euro area bounced more than expected. Central to our call that the US avoids recession is that businesses keep hiring (claims remain below 275k). However, we now see the Euro area slipping into a mild recession later this year. Both the Fed and ECB to keep hiking, though growth risks are making them more data-dependent. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Malcolm Barr, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss our recent forecast revisions which sees Western Europe sliding into recession during 2H22.   Speakers Bruce Kasman, Economic and Policy Research Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research Malcolm Barr, Economic and Policy Research Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Economic and Policy Research   This podcast was recorded on July 27, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4155520-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Further evidence of a loss in growth momentum in the US and Western Europe reinforces the message that recession risks are elevated. Central banks continue to hike rate and we look for an additional 75bp move from the Fed next week. However, there will likely be a greater sensitivity to both sides of the risk distribution as policy rates reach neutral levels and as labor markets weaken. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast we review how our economic outlook for Latin America has evolved as we pass the midpoint of 2022.  While we remain wary of challenges related to high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and significant political and electoral uncertainty, the slowdown in growth we expect has been pushed back, helped in part by terms of trade gains. However, the risks around global recession also put downside risk to our LatAm outlook, even raising the specter of financial stability concerns in some parts of the region. Speakers: Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Cassiana Fernandez, EM, Economic and Policy Research Gabriel Lozano, EM, Economics Research Diego Pereira, Economic and Policy Research This podcast was recorded on July 19, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Ins

More inflation in the US puts more stress on consumers and on the Fed. China hole gets bigger but so too does the rebound. On net, we leave the week seeing risks of recession largely unchanged: under 50% but not much. Anxiety builds ahead of an expected restart of Russian gas flows to Europe next Thursday, while next Friday’s flash PMIs to flag further momentum loss. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Behind welcomed resilience, the data flow of late reveals a vulnerable global expansion at midyear. While strong US June payrolls should disabuse those thinking the US is already in recession, it raises concerns about long it can last given soft GDP growth and the resulting drag on profits. Similarly, a strong global PMI report for June masks underlying momentum loss excluding a robust reopening bounce in China.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

After a weak first-half, unrelenting adverse shocks look set to reduce global GDP growth in the second half to remain below trend. The data flow this week—from disappointing news on the US consumer to a grim PMI report on global industry—underscore that momentum loss at midyear. With the bar on growth lowered, the next rung for downside risks to flag is a global recession. Short of this materializing, the Fed is likely to stay the course until reaching 3% on rates before turning somewhat more growth-sensitive. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In the wake of impressive resilience through 1H22, the global expansion looks increasingly brittle at midyear. While activity data from Asia show an encouraging bounce back from earlier pandemic drags, relentless inflation headwinds threaten to break the back of the consumer in the US and Europe. Confidence has dropped to forty year lows in Europe, while US and European flash PMIs took a larger than expected dip in June—with a surprising decline in the service sector PMI belying the strength of the much-anticipated re-opening dynamic. Next week’s inflation and survey readings to further underscore downside risks. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

China is rebounding smartly in May, and spillovers from the downturn remain mild. But inflation is surging everywhere and this is damping growth in the goods sector. The Fed upped its hiking pace to 75bp this week with another likely to come, guiding to a restrictive stance before yearend. In doing so while also now forecasting a rising unemployment rate suggests a singular focus on inflation and less of a growth-put than in the past—at least until inflation moderate. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam and Sin Beng discuss some of the key drivers of the macro narrative in EM Asia for 2H22, which we have coined – on the macro side “Mercury Rising” – and for strategy it’s going “From acute to chronic.”  We talk through some the salient drivers underlying these macroeconomic views and their implications for FX and rates markets. This podcast was recorded on Jun 16, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4119405-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4121834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week’s news centered around continued upward inflation pressure and the response from those central banks with still accommodative stances. The ECB made a significant shift this week and now looks likely to hike 125bp before year end. The RBA is also front-loading its rate hikes with the Fed set to deliver a 50bp hike with the promise of more to come. This dynamic is unlikely to change until growth slows materially, a development we now expect for the US during 2H22. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The latest data continue to show encouraging resilience to the headwinds weighing on growth in 1H22. Strong labor markets are supporting consumers while factory output is humming along outside of China and Russia. Although the downside risks remain material for the near-term, the medium-run risk is shifting to a 2H22 rebound with upside inflation pressures that require more central bank normalization than currently expected. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The latest data underscore the remarkable resilience of the global expansion, a testament both to the bounce-back potential still levering growth as well as the robustness of the fundamentals. However, with the headwinds intensifying rather than fading as we have hoped for, the risks to 2H22 are skewing down. Along with a global overview, we do a deeper dive on the US consumer and the Fed with US economist Peter McCrory. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Peter McCrory This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Ayako Fujita and Yuka Mera. The recent significant cost pressures have hit firms in Japan, but Japan’s CPI inflation remains low, with limited cost passthrough. This is particularly notable among SMEs, as large companies have forced them to limit price increases. To address this, the government is creating policy to enforce cost passthrough, such as changing legal operation standards and strengthening its monitoring system. Such moves likely will help Japan break out of its long-standing low-inflation equilibrium. We thus expect the trend of core inflation (ex. food and energy) will rise from a pre-pandemic three year average of 0.3%oya to around 1.2% by the end of 2022. However, even with this acceleration, inflation still remains well below the BoJ target of 2%, and therefore we don’t expect a policy shift from the BoJ. If a positive cycle can be created in which a rise in firms’ pricing power leads to higher wages, which in turn raises consumers’ purc

The data this week underscore a worsening headwind from China and a continued purchasing power drag from rising refined energy prices. However, it also showcases the strength and resilience of the consumer. Despite rising market jitters, we (and more importantly the Fed) have conviction the expansion continues. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

While high inflation and a range of shocks have dragged down 1H22 growth, we still see a resilient global economy returning to above-trend growth in 2H. However, lingering COVID-related lockdowns in China, rising food prices, and tightening financial conditions put some downside risk into this outlook. Next week’s April activity data will be a study in contrasts: very weak in China but rebounding in the US. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by David Mackie to discuss his recently released special report Living with COVID-19. Much of the world is moving quickly from a pandemic to an endemic equilibrium in which COVID will require minimal government restrictions and only limited pressure on healthcare systems. While this transition should boost global growth and promote a narrowing the wide growth gaps created by the virus, there are two important obstacles to normalization. First, the most populous country in the world China, is not in position join the rest of world in this transition. Second, the pandemic has likely had a lasting impact on labor markets which are remarkably tight and will likely place constraints on normalization. Speakers: Bruce Kasman David Mackie This podcast was recorded on May 12, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at <a href='https://www.jpmm.com/research/

The global economy is proving resilient so far to the many shocks and headwinds slowing activity this year. This has greenlighted central banks to normalize more rapidly. News that Fed will follow its 50bp hike this week with two more 50’s underscores the strong desire to return to neutral before yearend. Hawkish sentiments are sweeping through the central bank universe with even former doves changing tune. China remains a key near-term global growth threat. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We are proud to launch a new weekly economics publication, the EM Edge Data Watch. The Edge provides in depth coverage of over 30 economies currently not followed in our flagship Global Data Watch and folds in a set of regional products for this group. While the Edge is far from unified and represents countries with widely varying per capita GDP levels, market structure, and available economic indicators we see considerable value in standardizing their weekly coverage under one roof. Our aim is to provide a market-leading vehicle tracking economic releases and policy narratives while presenting insightful economic analysis both within and across countries. We hope you will find the EM Edge Data Watch useful and welcome feedback.   Speakers Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research   <

A modest contraction in 1Q US GDP masks stronger underlying strength and is also offset by upside surprises across Europe and Asia. Inflation surprises continue, this week notably in the Euro area. While energy prices to moderate across the DM, core is elevated and more sticky. Next week, the Fed is to ramp up the pace of its most rapid normalization in over a quarter-century, with a raft of hikes elsewhere. Downside risks to the global outlook from China loom large over the near-term. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

While the US and Europe are displaying impressive resilience China is slowing sharply following its strong start to the year. With China hurt by COVID restrictions the region will face both slower export demand and increased supply pressures in the coming months. Importantly, other economies in the region are set to receive a boost from fading COVID drags and China policy is pivoting towards ease. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Sin Beng Ong This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Hiroshi Ugai and Benjamin Shatil. The pace of recent yen depreciation has been remarkable, and the debate around its effect on the Japan economy is understandably intensifying. Under such conditions, concerns about the rise in import prices are mounting, but the impact of yen depreciation on inflation has been mild so far, while that on growth is still positive. That said, current yen depreciation highlights a divide between direct sufferers and beneficiaries, raising political issues. In particular, attention should be paid as well to its impact on corporate and household sentiment. BoJ is unlikely to adjust YCC due to yen depreciation unless it faces a significant rise in political pressure, in which case the BoJ could temporarily allow the 10yr yield to exceed the upper band. If any relief in yen weakness is temporary, the impact would not last. More drastic measures would be from the income distribution side if needed. At this point, currency interve

Current data show a consumer resilient to a powerful set of headwinds but also one that is slowing into the current quarter. Powerful supports are expected to lift spending in 2H22 as inflation pressures fade. China remains a wildcard as next week’s data to show strong 1Q22 GDP but monthly contractions heading into 2Q22. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The global economy is undergoing the largest purchasing power squeeze in a quarter century, with March inflation running twice the fastest pace seen since the early 1980s. Beyond the near-term threat, however, fundamentals keep our outlook for a return to robust growth by 2H22 and for central banks to keep normalizing. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week brings a set of March data that underscores the forces buffeting the global expansion and the supports that are helping to cushion it. European inflation and US payrolls point to a huge purchasing power squeeze that is being offset by robust job growth. The global PMIs show the shocks falling differently around the world, with Asia feeling the brunt (so far) from China’s zero-COVID lockdowns. Central banks are still looking beyond the near-term downsides and we revise up rate forecasts for the Fed, ECB, and BoE. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Cha

Featured in this podcast are Hiroshi Ugai and Ayako Fujita. Japan’s economy has long faced deflation and disinflation; in this it has been an outlier globally. Unlike in other DMs, reflationary feedback between a tight labor market and inflation has failed. However, the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and especially Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may change that, as other nations limit Russia’s participation in global energy markets, and Japan likely will accelerate the use of high-cost renewable energy to compensate for the loss of fossil fuels, and focus more on economic security than economic efficiency. The resulting persistent input cost pressures could prompt firms to change their price-setting behavior, supported by accommodative macroeconomic policies, and allow Japan to exit its disinflationary equilibrium. While recognizing the caveats that this scenario assumes that the global economy will return to above-trend growth after 1H22 and there will be no pr

The global economy is being buffeted by two related shocks – a spike in inflation magnified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a large increase in global bond yields sparked by the hawkish pivot by the Fed. There is a risk that we underestimate the size of these shocks, with the greatest concern linked to the potential for Russian energy supply to Europe to be shut off. In addition, there is concern that these two developments could interact and generate financial stress. To date, financial conditions are tightening as interest rates rise but there are no clear pressure points of stress raising unusual concerns. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit <a href='http://www.jpmm.com/research/dis

Bruce Kasman is joined by Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to introduce our monthly Global Inflation Monitor which details CPI performance through February.  While pressures from energy price shocks related to the Russia invasion were an important source of the 0.6%m/m February CPI increase, food and core price pressures have been building broadly (with the notable exception of China). 1Q22 Global core inflation ex. Turkey and China is tracking at its fastest pace of increase in over thirty years (5.6%ar). Inflation pressures are prompting central banks to tighten policy, but the squeeze in household purchasing power associated with this spike poses a threat to global growth. While we have already shaved 2.5% off our 2022 Euro area GDP forecast there is risk of a much sharper drop if the conflict pushes energy prices substantially higher. A number of low-income EM economies face a large terms-of-trade loss and building domestic political unrest due to surging food prices in

In this podcast we investigate the strength of Brazil’s labor market. In particular, we use the formal jobs quits rate to gauge labor demand in the country. We find that labor market conditions have tightened beyond the reported official labor data in the last couple of years. This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4036404-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Near-term risks to growth remain skewed to the upside on inflation and to the downside on growth, but the early-year data continue to show a resilient global expansion. Our global GDP nowcaster is tracking twice our forecast for 1.5%ar growth this quarter. While ready to act nimbly should growth falter, central banks are looking through the risks and on a path to normalize. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Despite growth downgrades amid surging inflation, the global economy is still expected to expand at a trend-like pace in 1H22. This is keeping central banks focused on normalization. The ECB was hawkish this week and next week’s Fed is set to lift off. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Olya Borichevska, Jessica Murray and Joe Lupton to discuss gender gaps in labor market performance and how women have fared in the recovery from the pandemic. Concerns over labor market scarring have been especially pronounced for women, who experienced an outsized hit during the 2020 recession compared to men, both in absolute terms and relative to previous recessions. This has raised concerns about structural change and potential scarring that could set back female labor performance. While the recovery has seen the gender gap close in DM economies, women’s recovery has lagged in EM. We explore the reasons for this divergence and discuss what recent global developments mean for female labor and global labor markets more generally. Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Global EM Economist Olya Borichevska, Global Economist Jessica Murray, EMEA EM Research Joe Lupton, Managing Director, Global Economic Research  

Events are unfolding rapidly and yet uncertainty is still high and rising. This week, we mark down growth and raise inflation outlooks around the world but this may not yet be enough. Beneath the surface is a healthy global expansion, but it will be put to the test in the coming months. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We view the macro economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine largely through the lens of the energy sector where Russia accounts for more than 10% of global production. So far, sanctions have spared the energy sector and potential additional supply is in the offing from Iran. While risks will remain high – and risk premium maintained in crude oil and natural gas prices – this week’s events are prompting modest downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation forecasts. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Jahangir Aziz This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Bruce Kasman is joined by Natasha Kaneva and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict and its implication for commodity prices and the global outlook. With Russia moving troops into Ukraine we now believe risk premium will continue to put upward pressure on commodity prices and have raised our forecasts for a number of commodities in which Russia is an important export market. Most notably, we the Brent oil price averaging $115/bbl in 2Q22. There are two sided risks to this forecast. We are not forecasting the imposition of the full range of Western sanctions imposed that could produce large retaliatory action.  At the same time, the rising prospect that Iranian oil comes on to the market could produce lower prices if tensions around Ukraine abate. Rising oil prices is a drag on global growth buts its impact should be tempered by the lifting now underway as the Omicron wave is fading. In all, we do not expect the conflict to give the Fed reason for pause at

Featured in this podcast are Bruce Kasman and Michael Hanson. While we continue to raise inflation forecasts and add to our expectations for central bank tightening, it is important to remember that global growth is downshifting this quarter. A risk of oil price spikes remains an important risk, but the latest news highlights consumer resiliency and signs that the COVID drag is fading in Europe. If we are right, these developments are setting the stage for a growth bounce next quarter. This podcast was recorded on February 18, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joseph Lupton discussing how Inflation continues to run much hotter than already heightened expectations, this week from a blistering US CPI report for January. Gone is the word “transitory,” but there is a growing sense that the strong readings have more signal of a much tighter global economy that requires much more rapid normalization. March meetings are unlikely to surprise much but beyond that, the path look set to steepen notably. This podcast was recorded on February 11, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Nora Szentivanyi to discuss our recent research on the dramatic tightening underway in global labor markets. Both our DM and EM aggregates show unemployment rates approaching pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2021, an outcome that contrasts with a still-substantial shortfall in GDP. For both regions, this partly reflects pandemic-related disruptions to labor supply that have depressed participation rates. However, a number of other factors are at work. Demand has rotated toward higher-productivity sectors in the US while European policies have reduced the work week while preserving jobs. In EM, we believe the pandemic hit informal sectors unusually hard, reducing GDP in a manner not fully reflected in measured employment. Central banks across the globe are under increasing pressure to adjust policy in response to rapidly labor markets. For now, the DM central bank response will be limited by hopes that a fading of the pandemic might elicit st

Featured in this podcast are Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton. Despite clear signs of growth slowing in response to the Omicron drag, the latest data reveal resilience in a number of areas including labor markets. This is keeping central banks focused on inflation and normalization. Last week’s hawkish Fed meeting was followed this week by hawkish meetings from the ECB and BoE. We add rate hikes to both for this year. This podcast was recorded on February 4, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Hiroshi Ugai, Takafumi Yamawaki, and Benjamin Shatil. While other DM CBs are approaching liftoff, the BoJ will lag in the exit from easy monetary policy, reflecting that only Japan has no clear way to achieve 2% inflation target. That said, the inflation outlook is highly uncertain and the difference in policy direction between the BoJ and other DM CBs may move the financial markets. Under such conditions we discuss whether the BoJ has the possibility to start the process toward the exit, what would be the policy sequence toward the exit, and how it would impact markets. To conclude in advance, adjusting to YCC may come in 2023 as a risk scenario, while the hurdle for liftoff would be much higher. The next governor may put less weight on achieving the target, thereby advancing the move toward the exit. In a plausible risk scenario of adjustment to YCC the BoJ could allow the 10yr JGB yield to rise to 0.15%-0.30% in 2023, implying 1%-2% lower fair value f

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joseph Lupton to discuss how Chair Powell has sent a strong signal that this normalization cycle will prove different than the last and we now expect the FOMC to hike seven times (175bp) by the end of March 2023. This shift comes against the backdrop of a sharp slowing in US and global growth this quarter. To realize our Fed call, the Omicron drag needs to be short-lived and the threat posed by energy and agricultural supply shocks needs to pass unrealized. Looking beyond the start of the year, risks turn towards the transmission of Fed tightening to financial markets which has varied greatly over previous policy normalizations. This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Jay Barry, Joe Lupton, and Michael Hanson to discuss today’s FOMC meeting and the path of policy normalization across the Developed Market economies. As expected, the FOMC laid the ground work for an expected March hike and mid-year start to QT. While Chair Powell also met our expectations in eschewing the gradual adjustment guidance delivered on the eve of the 2004 and 2015 normalizations he went further by emphasizing differences that “are likely to have important implications for the appropriate pace of policy adjustments.” His hawkish comments raise the risk of a more aggressive pace of tightening and add upside risk to the interest rate outlook. We remain comfortable that the economy will prove resilient in the face of this adjustment and will rebound from an expected large Omicron drag at the start of the year.  Other DM central banks are also in motion, but at a more gradual pace on both balance sheet and rates. Importantly, this cycle should also pr

Featured in this podcast is Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton. The global economy looks to have bounced back strongly last quarter as bottleneck pressures eased and pandemic headwinds faded. But a new round of the same pressures are set to damp growth this quarter. The consumer will bear the brunt. Inflation is a key concern, as rising energy and core prices are joined by surging agriculture prices. Central banks to look through the near-term headwinds and move toward normalization. The Fed next week is widely expected to deliver guidance to March lift-off. This podcast was recorded on January 21, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Featured in this podcast are Malcolm Barr, Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Greg Fuzesi. We discuss recent changes to our forecasts for inflation (higher) and the ECB (earlier tightening). This podcast was recorded on January 21, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3972532-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Ben Ramsey, Cassiana Fernandez, Gabriel Lozano, and Diego Pereira. In this podcast we review our economic outlook for Latin America in 2022, a year in which we see many challenges amid prospects for high inflation, tightening monetary policy, slowing growth, and significant political and electoral uncertainty.  In particular, we focus on the main questions we’ve been getting during our conversations with investors as we kick off the new year. This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3968916-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Featured in this podcast is Hiroshi Ugai and Ayako Fujita. Since Japanese firms’ wages have barely increased for 20 years, currently the Japanese government is planning to introduce many measures like a tax incentive, moral suasion, and selective wage increases to accelerate Japanese firms’ wage growth. The government expects that these measures will lay the foundation for future economic growth, and that a large rise in wages would also contribute to a sustainable rise in prices. We discuss the impact of these measures, and find that these measures are unlikely to work under the current high labor income shares and firms’ still cautious price-setting behavior in the face of the huge increases in energy and commodity prices. We think persistent labor shortages or policies to boost labor productivity such as through promoting digital transformation (DX) would have more impact, though it would take time to reap results. This podcast was recorded on Jan 20, 2022. This co

Momentum continues to soften as consumers took a breather through the holidays. Downgrades this week point to 1Q21 being the weakest of the expansion. We see the Omicron wave as a concentrated drag that will reverse in later quarters. But elevated inflation and a faster-than-expected normalization in labor markets is challenging the view of a gradual path of monetary normalization around the world, and this should temper the expansion.  Featured in this podcast is Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton. This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss recently published research showing that factory output is rebounding and sending encouraging signs that the bottlenecks holding back activity are easing. Evidence is emerging from the global PMIs and a range of transportation price measures. Even more encouraging is the robust recovery gathering steam in Asia, a goods-centric region at the center of the supply chain bottlenecks, and the motor vehicles sector where global output fell 25% over the first nine month of 2021. While final demand is growing at a modest pace, the strong desire to replenish depleted inventories has pushed global factory output gains to a double-digit annualized pace in the last three months of 2021. The evolving spread of the Omicron variant looks likely to slow this recovery and generate a significant, synchronized drag on global growth this quarter. Our view is that services will bear the brunt of the near-term drag and that it is unlikely that there

Marco Protopapa and Malcolm Barr discuss the economic and political outlook for Italy in the light of the forthcoming choice of a new president. This podcast was recorded on January 11, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3965695-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The global recovery is experiencing a fading of the supply shocks that damped growth last year but now facing a new resiliency test in the form of Omicron. We expect industry to weather the storm better than services, a view supported so far by the December PMIs, and for the economy as a whole to fare better than prior COVID waves. Central banks are keeping their eyes on normalization, and we now see the Fed hiking in March and beginning balance sheet roll-off in July.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This  was recorded on January 7, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.