Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor and Founder & CEO and of Dilweg, joins Forward Guidance to share shocking information from the world of commercial real estate (CRE) in general and office in particular. Dilweg, whose firm owns over 5.5 million square feet of real estate, mostly located in the Southeast United States, argues the challenges CRE will contend with may be greater than those faced during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Dilweg’s base case is that office as an asset class is structurally broken as the trends of remote and hybrid work are here to stay. He expects over a billion square footage of U.S. office space will be rendered obsolete in the coming years. With all these challenges notwithstanding, Dilweg is optimistic that there will be great investment opportunities for well capitalized players who can take advantage of market distress. Filmed on November 29, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to

Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Follow Marko Papic on Twitter https://twitter.com/Geo_papic Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Geopolitical Risks Are Often Mispriced (09:20) Papic's Outlook on Russia-Ukraine War (13:30) Blank Checks For Ukraine Are Getting Very Politically Expensive For Western Politicians (23:11) Military Alliances Can Be Dangerous (25:41) Papic on Israel-Hamas War: "Palestinian Issues Have Never Had A Market Impact" (27:31) Papic Believes That Conflict "Will Be Contained To Israel" (34:29) Gold's Recent Rally As Central Banks Diversify Away From U.S. Dollar (37:16) The Market Has Become Aware That World Is Increasingly Multipolar (42:39) Analogy To World War 1 and Wor

Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets. Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserve’s last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against “risk-off” currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and even gold. Filmed on November 22, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_F

Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update his views on fixed-income and the economy. He argues that shorting the yen // buy non-yen-denominated assets trade, the “greatest carry trade in the world,” may be unwound as the Bank of Japan steers away from yield curve control and potentially will raise interest rates. This would have massive implications on global markets, which Glinsman expounds on in depth. Filmed on November 20, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of Crowded Market Report, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his philosophy for trading markets. Shapiro explains that while the only position he currently has on is being long the Swiss Franc, he still thinks stocks will likely outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Filmed on November 16, 2023. __ Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:51) Stock/Bond Correlation (14:39) Hindsight Is 20/20, Show Me The P&L (16:30) Gold & Oil (21:55) Narratives Are Cheap (26:36) Investing Vs. Trading (32:37) Banks & C

George Robertson joins Forward Guidance to argue that the exceptionally large fiscal stimulus will mean that the economic boom has no end in sight. Once the market realizes there will be no recession, Robertson continues, stocks will soar and the 10-year will rise. Robertson makes the case that the “true” risk-free yield curve is actually not inverted, a claim at odds with common conceptions and one of many claims that Jack pushes back on, some others being that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has effectively no impact on the economy and that the 10-year Treasury yield is an accurate gauge of future nominal GDP. FIlmed on October 30, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Sw

Jonny Matthews, founder of Super Macro and former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and managing director at Citi & Saloman Brothers, joins Forward Guidance to share his view on markets and the economy. Having netted a near 100% return in 2022 with a very large short in Treasury bonds, Matthews has been a proud “recession denier” for several years. While he is now concerned with some worrisome data in the U.S., Matthews continues to believe that an imminent recession in the U.S. is unlikely. Matthews and Farley also discuss the dangers of correlation trades, the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and the perils of variance swaps in 2008 and Long-Term Capital Management. Filmed on November 2, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portf

In January of 2023, a time where extreme pessimism on stocks and the economy reigned, Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, shared his bullish outlook on equities with Jack. Now that his prediction has come true, Sam returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is much less overweight on equities now than in January, but that he remains somewhat constructive on risk assets even as he expects a modest slowdown in 2024. Filmed on November 3, 2023. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Less Overweight Equities Than In January... But Still Overweight (06:54) Monitor of Analysts’ Earnings Revisions (MAER) (11:31) The Housing Market (& Homebuilding Industry) (15:18) The Banks (16:50) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (18:43) Healthcare & Commodity Sectors (20:18) Chinese Stocks (23:55) S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (31:40) Equity Momentum Has Weakened (34:39) Disinflation Will Continue, The Soft Landing Is Here (42:40) At What Point Does Global Manufacturing & Trade Downturn Impact The

On Todays episode, Ben Santonelli Portfolio Manager at Polen Capital joins the show for a discussion on the state of the high yield bond market. Expecting further weakness in the high yield space, but nothing outside the normal credit cycle, Ben explains where he is finding the best opportunities as "debt investors can now generate equity type returns". To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: FG20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:49) Debt Investors Are Generating Equity Type Returns (05:38) Default Rates Will Increase In 2024 & Beyond (12:41) Loan-to-Value (LTV): Investing In High Quality Businesses (20:05) Loan Demand Has Declined Since 2022 (22:35) Liqui

MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Spinozzi Remains Bearish On Very Long Duration Bonds (08:18) View On Investment Grade Bonds (09:46) Who Will Be Marginal Buyer Of U.S. Treasurys? (15:40) Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasurys (& Japanese Investors) (22:40) The Shape of the Yield Curve (24:07) Balance Sheet Policy (QT & QE) (32:32) Much Of Europe Is In Recession (42:21) European Demand For U.S. Treasurys (45:47) Barbell Approach To Fixed Income (Short-Term & 10-Year) __ Follow Althea Spinozzi on Twitter https://twitter.com/Altheaspinozzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitter ht

Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, returns to Forward Guidance alongside Blockworks co-founder Michael Ippolito to break down the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) and Fed’s FOMC meeting that marked the first day of November.  MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Michael Kao’s article discussed in the show: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationoilgoldyield-curves-revisiting Follow Michael Kao on Twitter https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Michael Ippolito on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin on Twitter https://

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on oil, bond supply, the housing market, and the labor market. Having been an underweight bonds and overweight commodities (oil), Pies now views both the 10-Year Treasury and oil as roughly fair value. Pies expects the mortgage buydowns, where homebuilders shield new homebuyers from the cost of higher mortgage rates, to no longer work at 8% mortgage buyers. He thinks a recession might start in Q2 2024 as employment in residential construction begins to wane. Filmed on October 27, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG

What you’re about to listen to is a conversation with Jeremy Siegel, distinguished professor of economics at Wharton, Jeremy Schwartz, CIO of WisdomTree, and Dave Goodson, head of securitized products at Voya Financial, and Jack Farley, who was a guest on this episode of the “Behind The Markets” podcast. The first part of this discussion features Professor Siegel’s macro view on bonds, stocks, and the economy, and the second part of the conversation is devoted to Dave Goodson’s in-depth analysis of the world of securitized products, such as agency MBS, non-agency MBS, commercial MBS, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Original episode of “Behind The Markets”: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley-dave-goodson/id1194707802?i=1000632103956 __ Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Fol

Jack welcomes Casey Wagner, Blockworks' senior policy correspondent, to recap the wild day of the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) on October 26th, when SBF at last takes a stance to testify and rebut allegations of financial crimes. Casey Wagner's recent article on the trial: https://blockworks.co/news/sbf-trial-defense-missing-document https://blockworks.co/news/sam-bankman-fried-trial-day-13__ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:27) Evidence Destruction (Document Retention Policy, Of Which There Is No Available Record) (18:17) First Two Witnesses For The Defence (27:04) Sam Bankman-Fried Breaks His Silence (Sworn Testimony Without Jury) (34:38) Courtroom Politics (42:29) How Long Would SBF's Potential Sentence Be? (45:38) Jury

On todays episode, Craig Manchuck Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Osterweis joins the show for a discussion on the end of the zero interest rate era.  We deep dive into the bond market sell-off over the past 3 years, where to find opportunities in the bond market & the rise of private credit. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! --  Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:43) The Low Interest Rate Era Is Over (06:55) The Fed's Tightening Will Lead To A Recession (17:47) Investing In A Zero Rate Regime vs Today (23:34) The Indexation Of Fixed Income (27:22) How CLOs & Passive Have Impacted Bonds (41:33) Where Is The Pain From Higher Interest Rates Being Felt? (48:10) The Heyday Of Private Equity Is Over (01:00:19) Liquidity In Private Credit (01:09:35) Understanding The Cred

On todays episode, Aidan Garrib Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global joins the show for a deep dive into the Chinese economy.  We take a look under the hood into the shadow debt within China, the Governments crackdown on credit & Aidan's outlook for both Chinese equities & more broadly the economy. Finally, we shift over to the U.S and discuss the recent bond market sell-off. Have we seen enough pain for bond investors, or will recessionary headwinds lead to a rally in bonds? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance --  Follow Aidan Garr

Today’s interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023. Some of Borio’s and the BIS’ works mentioned in this interview: “Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust,” June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf “The two-regime view of inflation,” March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajšek

John Toohig, managing director and head of whole loan trading at Raymond Jaymes, and Nathan Stovall, director of the financial institutions research team for S&P Global Market Intelligence, join Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to update listeners on the state of the U.S. banking industry. Surging deposit costs, steadily rising defaults, and a freeze on loan liquidity are just some of the topics discussed in this conversation. Filmed the afternoon of October 18, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Latest edition of John Toohig’s “Let’s Talk Loans”: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-

Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the recently released third quarter earnings from banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citi, Charles Schwab, and Goldman Sachs. Whalen also discusses with Farley companies about to report such as American Express, PNC Financial, Bank of the Ozarks, and Truist. Filmed the afternoon of October 17, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forwar

Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge and author of “Disorder: Hard Times In The 21st Century,” joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on European energy, the Federal Reserve, financial repression, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Filmed on October 12, 2023. __ Helen Thompson’s book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Disorder-Hard-Times-21st-Century/dp/0198864981 Helen Thompson’s book on Oxford Press: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/disorder-9780198864981 Helen Thompson at Cambridge: https://www.polis.cam.ac.uk/Staff_and_Students/dr-helen-thompson __ Follow Helen Thompson on Twitter https://twitter.com/HelenHet20 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Energy In Europe (09:27) Wind and Solar (13:36) Nuclear Energy (22:0

On todays episode, Bob Elliott CIO at Unlimited Funds & Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion on the late cycle slowdown coming throughout the end of 2023 & into 2024.We discuss the impact of passive investing & to what degree earnings really matter in todays modern market structure, the relative value in bonds vs stocks & what delinquencies could be signalling in terms of credit going forward. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) The Bond Market Sell-Off (04:09) Is The Bond Market Pain Over? (06:37) The Economy Remains Strong… For Now (13:23) Fading The Soft Landin

David Cervantes of Pine Brook Capital Management LLC joins Forward Guidance to share why he faded the recession consensus of 2022, why he decided to short bonds this year, and why as of early October he sees an opportunity to be long the U.S. 10-year Treasury as a tactical long. Filmed on October 5, 2023. Follow David Cervantes on Twitter https://twitter.com/pinebrookcap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:58) Why 1 Year Ago Cervantes Thought Recession Was Unlikely (07:05) Cervantes' Short Bond Trade (14:45) Fed Policy (26:16) Tracking The Economy (32:35) There May Be A Slowdown, But A Recession Is Unlikely In Near-Term (45:41) The Maturity Wall Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financi

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Lyn Alden Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy & Author of Broken Money joins the show for a discussion on the recent bond market meltdown before diving deep into why our current monetary order is broken, the pro's vs con's of hard money and how Bitcoin could be a solution to the current monetary disorder.To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show: Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better: https://amzn.to/3tizFVg Money and the Mechanism of Exchange: https://bit.ly/3rJDpi0 -- Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Meltdown (11:18) Buying Bonds Here Is Not A Great Trade (14:30) Are We Heading For

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Alfonso Peccatiello Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass joins the show for a discussion on the U.S bond market sell-off and it implications for broader markets, both domestically & internationally. Weighing sentiment, risk/reward & economic signals, Alfonso assesses if the current sell-off is justified, or is the trend about to reverse and provide an attractive opportunity to go long bonds? To hear all this & much much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Sign up to The Macro Compass bond course & use the code "Macro20" for a 20% discount: https://www.themacrocompass.com/courses/#bond-market-course -- Follow Alfonso on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Sell-Off (11:38) Testing Bond Market Sentiment

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest For The Trees, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the steep sell-off in the long-end of the U.S. Treasury market. Filmed on September 25, 2023. Follow Luke Gromen on Twitter https://twitter.com/LukeGromen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Spencer Jakab, editor of Heard On The Street for The Wall Street Journal, joins Forward Guidance to share what he learned writing his latest book, “The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors.” Jakab and Farley discuss meme-stock mania in all its aspects: the outwitting of hedge funds by individual investors, the transformation of r/WSB from a trading club to a “movement,” the shameless promotion by influencers, and the tallying of who ultimately got rich. Filmed on September 19, 2023. Spencer’s book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/690543/the-revolution-that-wasnt-by-spencer-jakab/ Spencer’s book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Revolution-That-Wasnt-GameStop-Investors/dp/0593421159 Follow Spencer Jakab on Twitter https://twitter.com/Spencerjakab Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockwork

Nanette Jacobson, Global Investments Strategist at Hartford Funds, joins Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook. Jacobson argues that it might be time to lean into bonds because the bonds tend to rally 13 months before the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and she and Jack Farley debate the various merits of owning bonds at this juncture in the business cycle. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Economic Outlook (09:04) Outlook On Banking System (12:45) Views On Interest Rates & Fed (25:20) China is "Cheap For A Reason" (30:14) U.S. Fiscal Stimulus (37:22) Cautious Views On Stocks (39:05) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (39:06) Debate About Bonds (45:56) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (50:52) Expensive Stocks Can Always Get More Expensive

Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jay Powell Goes Off Script (16:50) Oil & Inflation (25:54) Odds Of A Liquidity Crisis Forcing The Fed To Stop QT (Danielle Doesn't Buy It!) (40:13) Normalization of Credit (46:52) Danielle's Hypothesis That March 2020 Might Not Count As A Recession (53:13) Will Th

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce joins Jack Farley to share her views on crypto regulation and the SEC’s purview of it. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks’ Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:39) Crypto & Transparency - What Is The SEC's Role? (07:29) What Is A "Security"? Commissioner Peirce's Views (15:00) SEC Proposal To Change Definition Of An Exchange (17:00) Crypto And Alleged "Lawlessness" (20:21) Does The SEC's Jurisdiction Begin And End With "Securities"? (23:07) Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) (26:45) Proposed Money Market Fund (MMF) Reform (29:14) Difference Between A Money Market Fund And A Stablecoin

Brian Quintenz, head of policy for a16z crypto and former commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), joins Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of crypto regulation. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks’ Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps:

Jack Farley hosts Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital, and Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, for a panel on whether the near-term macro situation will be a headwind or tailwind for crypto. Filmed on September 12, 2023, at Blockworks' Permissionless II in Austin, Texas. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Is Macro A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto? (23:41) Will Fed Keep Interest Rates "Higher For Longer"? (28:53) The Banking System (34:14) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (39:58) Final Verdict: Will Macro Be A Headwind Or Tailwind For

Jack interviews Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital at Blockworks’ Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Macro Doesn't Matter For Crypto (05:24) 4 Main Factors That Affect Venture Capital (VC) Returns (13:59) Metcalfe's Law As A Valuation Framework (17:21) Mark Yusko: "I Am Not A Bitcoin Maximalist" (20:44) Mark Yusko: "I Am A Big China Bull"

Jack interviews Jim Bianco of Bianco Research at Blockworks’ Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) No Rate Cuts If Oil Prices Stay High (06:28) Jim Bianco: The Recession Already Happened In 2022 (15:11) What Is Appropriate Level On Interest Rates (And Bond Yields) For U.S. Economy? (24:59) A "Garden Variety Recession" Hasn't Occurred In Many Decades (33:28) Household's And Corporates' Terming Out Of Debt In 2020 (34:41) Mortgage Market Is Hurting Banks (42:55) Fixed-Income Outlook: Duration Vs. Credit (45:37) Jim Bianco: Macro Will Be A Headwind For Crypto (51:54) Increased Regulatory Scrutiny For Crypto

Andrew Beer, managing member of DBI, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the need for drastic fee reduction in hedge-fund like return vehicles. Beer and Farley explore in depth the mysteries of trend following (also known as CTAs or managed futures) strategies, which provide investors with positive carrying uncorrelated return streams that can be very beneficial in years such as 2022, when stocks and bonds both suffered a severe drawdown. Filmed on September 6, 2023. Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:04) Alpha & Beta (02:25) What Hedge Funds Do Well (11:17) Paying High Hedge Fund Feeds Is Like "Shooting Yourself In The Foot" (14:31) The Strategy of Managed Futures (or Commodity Trading Advisors) (29:40) The Rise of the "Pod Model" In Multi-Manager Hedge Funds (39:00) Picking Hedge Fund Managers Is A Largely Hopeless Task (44:29) Many Hedge Funds Have Missed The 2023 Tech Rally (50:24) Optimal Rebalancing Between Strategies (57:53) History Of Bad Ideas In Creation of New Investment Pro

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share his view on the U.S. business cycle. Basmajian notes that the 2022 decline in economic growth rate turned into a remarkable stabilization of broad coincident indicators of economic activity that began in January 2023 and persisted throughout the spring stresses in the banking system. However, he remains confident that the U.S. economy will enter a recession soon, and he discusses in detail several of his leading indicators that motivate his view. Filmed on September 7, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduc

This is Jack’s guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well as the banking system, which Jack shares his thoughts on in some depth. Recorded on September 1st, 2023. Original episode on Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley/id1194707802?i=1000626532544 Jeremy Siegel’s book, “Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies”: https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/0071800514 Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Fol

When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed on September 5, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:09) Reviewing Milton Berg's Successful Bullish Call in January 2023 (07:23) Market Outlook Now (20:00) "This Market Is In A Lot Of Tro

On todays episode, Aahan Menon Founder of Prometheus Research joins the show for a discussion on his current macro outlook looking at the economy, growth, markets & liquidity. With a wave of U.S Treasury issuance on the horizon, Aahan explains why he now sees a perfect opportunity to be short stocks & bonds and he expects further headwinds for assets in this environment. To hear Aahan explain why, and much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Prometheus Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up t

Today’s interview is a deep-dive into commercial real estate (CRE), an asset class which includes office, multifamily housing (apartments), hotels, data centers, malls, and more. Jack welcomes John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, Thomas LaSalvia, Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics, and Victor Calanog, Manulife’s Managing Director & Global Head of Research and Strategy, Real Estate Private Markets, for a wide-ranging discussions on the challenges and opportunities within CRE, with a focus on how the recent interest rate shock has impacted property values, cash flows, interest expense, and other key metrics in the CRE world. Filmed on August 30, 2023. -- Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open -- Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ja

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Ne

In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of “stealth stimulus” would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/trading. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow StoneX on Twitter https://twitter.com/stoneX_official Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https

Follow Mike Singleton https://twitter.com/InvictusMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Singleton's Macro Process (12:47) The E

On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mark Neuman on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkNeuman18 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:vhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news.

Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, shares his insight why country selection has a greater effect on excess returns than company selection, and shares his view on investment opportunities and challenges in China, Greece, India, South Africa, and other countries. Filmed at Camp Kotok in August 2023. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Country Allocation Is Greater Source of Excess Returns Than Company Selection (03:55) Greatest Country Overweight: Greece (07:32) Underweight South Africa and India (08:33) Can Governments Default On Debt Denominated In Currencies They Can Print? The Answer May Surprise You! (10:54) Could The U.S. Ever Have An "Emerging Market Debt Crisis"? (12:31) Chinese Equities ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should

Today Jack interviews William “Bill” Isaac, who served as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985. Isaac recounts his handling of large bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, including the collapse of Continental Illinois, which was the largest FDIC takeover until Washington Mutual in 2008. Isaac argues that at the core of banking issues is fiscal imprudence by the U.S. Congress which has caused inflation and rate volatility. Filmed on August 16, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bill's Early Journey To The FDIC (03:23) Anatomy Of A Bank Failure (12:40) Does Technology Haste

Few outside the banking world grasp the true importance of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), whose collective loans to U.S. banks outpace the Federal Reserve’s by more than 10 to 1 as of summer 2023. Today Jack speaks to Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, and Dan Siciliano, chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB, about the FHLB’s mission, capitalization, and implicit government guarantee. Ericson and Siciliano argue that the declining advances from FHLBs to U.S. banks since May 2023 may indicate an easing of liquidity pressures in the U.S. banking system. Filmed on August 15, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Bl

Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open ____ To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email [email protected] Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Resilience Of The U.S. Housing Market (09:28) Comparing the

Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok. We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade (07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch'

Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation. Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Inflation (05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates (08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal

David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to “Camp Kotok” with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of “Camp Kotok” and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitch’s recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023. About Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00)

Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023. Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying t

Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leen’s Lodge for the first week of “Camp Kotok.” Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:22) The Bond Market (12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bian

James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of “The Informationist” newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/trading. ____ Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavish Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction  (03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt (16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral (28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money (42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option (49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System (58:36) Why Just Bitcoin? (01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund (01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are,

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap ___ Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/ More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Michael Howell’s Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity (04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big

Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year. Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a “knife’s edge” and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates. Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference at the close of the meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of “Insider Talks” on Real Vision Pro. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills

Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasury’s renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SEC’s new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks R

Peter Atwater, Adjunct Professor of Economics at William and Mary, and author of “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity” joins Forward Guidance to diagnose the sentiment that’s driving the current (unofficial) bull market in risk. Follow Peter Atwater on Twitter https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Peter Atwater’s book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity”: https://peteratwater.com/the-confidence-map-2/ “The Confidence Map” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559#:~:text=The%20Confidence%20Map%20is%20a,that%20too%20often%20feels%20senseless. ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now

Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now “cautiously bullish” on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabia’s significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023. ____ Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Johnston’s latest Substacks on Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockwor

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, deg

On todays episode Michael Robbins, CIO of Larson Financial & Professor Of Quantitative Investing at Columbia University joins the show for a discussion on the quantitative investing strategy. Authoring the book "Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing" Michael takes us back to the very basics in answering what is quantitive investing, what actually causes markets to go up, why most investors are NOT stock pickers and how a quantitive strategy can help manage risk & create sizeable returns. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29076 Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for

Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming plans to increase capital requirements for U.S. banks. Filmed on July 11, 2023. ____ Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Kelly’s latest “Without Warning” Substack: https://www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-story-of-svb-isnt-just ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insig

Vítor Constâncio witnessed firsthand severe recessions, inflationary bouts, and a global financial crisis, as former Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) (2010 to 2018) and Governor of The Bank of Portugal (1985-1986, 2000-2010). He brings this considerable experience to examine the current challenges facing central bankers at the ECB as well as the Fed. Constâncio argues that while U.S. inflation is driven by a strong demand generated by loose fiscal policy, the primary agent of European inflation was the surge in energy prices in 2022. However, he recognizes that what began as supply-side pressure has broadened out to other sectors of the Euro area economy, so the ECB’s hiking of interest rates to 4% was necessary. Constancio expects that a mild recession in Europe will tame inflation and that substantial further rate hikes from the ECB will likely not be needed. Filmed on July 6, 2023. ____ Follow Vítor Constâncio on Twitter https://twitter.com/VMRConstancio Follow Jack

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023. After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/ Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, go

Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.” Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.“The Price of Time”: https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069 ____ Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitter https://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=en Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featured Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Researc

Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June. What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the “lender of second-to-last resort.” Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SEC’s move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFR’s replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023. ____ Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudge Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://

-- On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets. Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023. Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twi

To get $1,000 off an annual subscription to QI Pro, Danielle DiMartino Booth’s institutional-grade research service, go to https://quillintelligence.com/register/qi-pro-friends-of-farley/. $3,000 instead of $4,000 for the first year, offer ends in July. Interested parties may request a sample report of QI Pro by emailing Danielle DiMartino Booth at [email protected]. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance on a mission to dispute the notion that the U.S. economy is strong. Booth challenges the apparently-rosy economic data and points to where the data is either very lagging or, as she says about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) data, “painfully corrupted.” Booth explains why she expects inflation to continue to fall very sharply, and why she expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at least one more time in July (and perhaps again in September). Filmed on June 20, 2023. -- Follow Danielle: https://twitt

__ Today’s special guest is a true expert in global money. Robert McCauley’s life work on the international monetary system is authoritative and seminal, and he joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang to answer questions such as: - how do Eurodollars actually work? - is the rest of the world long or short dollars? (the answer may surprise you) - how does the level of the dollar mechanically impact offshore dollar credit? McCauley confirms many rumors about Eurodollars (offshore dollars), as well as debunks several of their myths. He shares his view on the dollar’s role in the future of global money, and he details the astronomically large sums in the FX swap market used to hedge dollar exposure. McCauley also asks Joseph Wang a question about the fall of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) and the rise of SOFR (secured overnight financing rate). Filmed on June 21, 2023. Robert McCauley is the Senior Fellow at the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Develo

With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what it’s like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol). Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023. -- Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Ambrus’ paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity. -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: h

Louis Camhi, founder and chief investment officer of RLH Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to provide a strategic update on the world of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies). ___ Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, ca

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto new

On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code

Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplan’s website: https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing (01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) (05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes (06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress? (15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves (16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present (24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing. Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/

Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return.  Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which w

Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute “hottest hand” when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year. Quoting George Soros’ saying that, “when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it,” Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023. Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down. Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks: “Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat “Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress”: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable “Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit “SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities ____ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discu

Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing. Immortalized in “The Big Short,” Vincent’s interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s ____ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.4% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance ____ Follow Vincent Daniel on Twitter https://twitter.com/VD718 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The Current Setup (06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally? (09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks (13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution (21:17) Public.com (22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds (26:24) Outlook on Sto

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Alex Etra Senior Macro Strategist at Exante Data & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show for a discussion on the path ahead for H2 2023.  Reflecting on the record bond losses in 2022, Alex shares his outlook on what to expect in the second half of 2023 as bond fund managers experience inflows and tech related equities continue surging higher despite the bearish sentiment in the broader market.  We then move on to some of the monetary plumbing implications amidst the debt ceiling resolution and what impact it could have on markets as the U.S Treasury looks to re fill is dwindling Treasury General Account. To hear all this & more. you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show:  Back to 2019: https://fedguy.com/back-to-2019/  Money: Inside and Out: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/  -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and

Warren Mosler, founder of Valance Co., Inc. and author of “The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy,” is widely viewed as the intellectual godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a framework for understanding money and debt which underscores a government’s ability to print money to pay for goods and services without relying necessarily on borrowing or taxation. Mosler joins Forward Guidance to apply these ideas to today’s financial issues. He argues why a failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling would be truly catastrophic, and he makes the case that the Fed’s rate hikes are actually contributing to inflation, rather than fighting it, because the government is printing more money in order to pay its debt. Filmed on May 30, 2023. ____ Follow Warren Mosler on Twitter https://twitter.com/wbmosler Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blo

Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Macro Hive return to Forward Guidance to update listeners on the U.S. debt ceiling, which may be breached as early as June. Filmed on May 25, 2023. To access a 40% discount to an annual subscription of Macro Hive Prime, go to www.macrohive.com/jack. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Twitter https://twitter.com/firstkicktires Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_f Joseph’s latest piece on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/probing-lclor/ Joseph Wang YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before t

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of The Crowded Market Report, joins Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to share his contrarian trading style and to explain why he remains long stocks even after this year’s huge equity rally. Shapiro shares wisdom from his long career of trading, as well as why he is long the dollar and short gold. Filmed on May 25, 2023. ____ Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market in

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Oil market veteran Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical vs secular trends in the oil market that investors should be paying attention to. Highlighting how the current market is extremely difficult to trade directionally, as oil remains rangebound after it's 2022 highs of over $100 a barrel, Paul outlines both the supply & demand picture in 2023. Paul goes on to explain the four structural drivers of oil prices, energy companies profitability with oil sitting around the $70 mark & what investors can expect throughout the rest of 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Paul on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Bloc

During her tenure as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011, Sheila Bair managed over 300 bank failures, including the collapse of Washington Mutual in September 2008, the largest bank failure in American history. Bair joins Forward Guidance to apply her vast experience to share insight on recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic. Filmed the afternoon of May 18, 2023. ____ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. ____ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Sheila Bair on Twitter https://twitter.com/SheilaBair2013 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Right Now, The Main Issu

Nicholas Glinsman, macro investor and co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on banks, commercial real estate, and China. Glinsman says that he and his partner Harald Malmgren expect a ban on new foreign investment into China will be “imminently” passed via executive order of U.S. President Biden. ____ Malmgren Glinsman Partners is a research partner of Forward Guidance. To get discounted access to the Malmgren Glinsman Daily note (“Ahead Of The Heard”), go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Forward%2520Guidance?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgern-glinsman-partners-daily-ahead-of-the-herd  And use code “Forward Guidance” at checkout to get a discounted rate of $900/year. “Ahead of The Heard” typically is released at a daily cadence so subscribers can expect 5-6 issues per week. To obtain access to Malmgren Glinsman’s institutional product, a long-form research note aiming to flag for large institutional investors important market-

Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and Author joins the show for a historical comparison between the previous bank runs & the banking turmoil of 2023. Knodell reflects on the development of the U.S banking system throughout history, the measures taken today to curb deposit flight and how the Federal Reserve ultimately became the lender of last resort. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell  Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj  --  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw  Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos — Referenced In The Show: Making

Last year, Patrick Perret-Green, veteran bond trader and macro strategist, warned his clients that plummeting liquidity at regional U.S. banks could cause serious issues. Now that these issues have made themselves apparent with the fall of three U.S. banks, Perret-Green of PPG Macro joins Forward Guidance to share his views on bank liquidity, loan growth, and credit risks within banks as well as shadow banks. Filmed on May 11, 2023. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/PPGMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors.  ____ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante on Twitter https://twit

Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:40) China's Economic Growth Model (18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China (26:01) Van Eck ad (26:51) Domestic Consumption In China (35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works (39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Ch

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her thoughts on May 3rd’s Federal Reserve’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the ongoing issues at several regional U.S. banks.  Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest

Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of “Trillion Dollar Triage” joins Jack Farley to share his analysis of yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed at 10am ET on May 4, 2023. --- Timiraos' article on May 3 Fed meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-rates-signals-potential-pause-eb264784 Timiraos’ article on 2006 hiking cycle: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-fed-debate-17-years-ago-reveals-about-its-rate-deliberations-now-4835936 Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage”: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817 --- Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ --- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be con

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Forward Guidance to break down the Federal Reserve’s meeting on May 3rd, during which Fed Chair Powell noted that “conditions in the banking sector have improved.” Shortly thereafter, shares of PacWest Bank ($PACW) plummeted. Bianco and Farley also explore whether this is the Fed’s last hike in interest rates, and how the consequences of the looming debt ceiling will impact the banking system and markets. Note: this interview started to filmed at 3:30pm ET on May 3rd, almost immediately after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference, but BEFORE the crash in $PACW (over 50%), which occurred shortly after 4:30pm ET. Bianco and Farley’s discussion of PacWest occurred before PacWest announced it was pursuing a strategic sale. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jim

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Josh Young Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Bison Interests joins the show for a deep dive into the oil and gas industry. After a record year in 2022 for oil & gas, with energy being the best performing sector, 2023 has sent investors on "a wild ride" with crude oil retracing gains from its high of around $120 to around $75. Josh walks through the relative performances of the oil majors, and the small/mid size cap companies he specializes in. As many oil & gas companies have restructured their balance sheets and paid down overhanging debt, is the stage set for an outperformance of the oil & gas companies that incurred tougher times throughout the previous decade. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/

Today First Republic, America’s 14th largest bank, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) who sold the vast majority of the stranded assets to banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM). Jack welcomes two veteran bankers, Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, for an in-depth look at why First Republic and how the banking system can move on from today’s takeover. Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news,

Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System,” Dr. Mehrling shares insights on the extension of the dollar to the global south and globalization of shadow banking. Mehrling and Farley explore whether rumors of the dollar’s death are greatly exaggerated, and how the end of a zero-interest-rate-fueled credit cycle could be a “little rocky.”  “Money and Empire”: https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/macroeconomics-and-monetary-economics/money-and-empire-charles-p-kindleberger-and-dollar-system?format=HB “Money and Empire” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Empire-Kindleberger-Economic-Thinking/dp/1009158570 __ Follow Perry Mehrling on Twitter https://twitter.com/PMehrling Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitte

Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he’s no longer bearish on natural gas, why he thinks the May Fed meeting could be a catalyst for gold, and why hedge fund managers who are still short officer REITs (real estate investment trusts) will get their faces he’s no longer bearish on natural gas. He discusses several essays from his latest book, “Those Bastards: 69 Essays On Life, Creativity, & Meaning.” Filmed on April 17, 2023. ____ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 fo

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Nathan Tankus Author at Notes on the Crises joins the show for a deep dive into the shadow banking system, recent financial crises and the current state of the banking system post SVB's collapse.  Questioning conventional monetary theory, Nathan outlines his thesis authored in a recent paper released in January 2022 "The New Monetary Theory". Nathan also shares his thoughts on the current FDIC limit of $250,000 and how an increase in this limit could help prevent future bank panics. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Subscribe To Notes on the Crises: https://www.crisesnotes.com/ Follow Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NathanTankus Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show:  THE NIGHT THEY REREAD POZSAR (IN HIS ABSENCE): https://www.crisesnotes.c

Recent efforts by foreign leaders have led some to claim that the U.S. Dollar system will soon cease to be the global reserve currency. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to Forward Guidance to argue that these arguments are utterly wrong, and he explains why in great detail. He expects a major squeeze to occur sometime over the next two years, although he and Jack discuss the potential for China’s re-emergence from recession as a catalyst for more potential short-term dollar weakness. Filmed on April 20, 2023. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/

On today's episode of Forward Guidance Lou Crandall, Chief Economist of Wrightson ICAP & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show to discuss the fallout of the recent bank panic. With two monetary plumbing experts on the show, we take the opportunity to cover a wide range of topics including the real reason bank deposits were leaving banks, the impact of the record $2 trillion parked in the reverse repo, how the Fed can use interest rates to control financial stability and the looming debt ceiling. In the opaque world of financial plumbing, there are no two better guests to welcome to the show, but to hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 10/4/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national h

This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes! Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM -- This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: ht

The last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy. At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing nothing. Despite the unprecedented scale of record-setting JGB buying (or, foreign and domestic investor selling pressure), the Bank of Japan delivered a unanimous vote of no change in Yield Curve Control policy for Governor Kuroda's second to last meeting of his historic, and dramatically controversial tenure of radical policy experimentation.  Ahead of today's policy release, Weston had been discussing his outlook for a "no-change" BOJ policy outcome, and had positioned for the event against market consensus, using the same framework that he and Jack had discussed at the end of December of mar

Kyrill Asatur, Co-Founder and CEO at Centerfin, joins Jack Farley to talk about stocks, macro and the .com bubble. Asatur explains how important the services Centerfin offers because they have exclusive access to funds that retail investors normally don’t have. What are some of the common behaviorial mistakes investors make? Working with institutional investors for almost 20 years, Asatur says individuals are prone to the same behaviors as retail investors. -- Follow Kyrill Asatur on Twitter https://twitter.com/wallsthobbes Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Macro at Centerfin (03:04) Decisions of an Individual Investor (08:55) Kyrill's View on Macro and the Fed (18

With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal? On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that inflation will increase the value of scalable, economically resilient business models with exposure to hard assets, and he shares several examples, ranging from gold royalty companies and financial exchanges to timber companies and agricultural processing firms.