Which commercial real estate markets are set to recover first, and where will recovery be strongest? The Capital Economics real estate team has been looking closely at the comparative performance of the US, European and UK markets to advise clients on where to find opportunities – and where painful adjustments to the post-pandemic world are likely to linger. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, CRE team lead Kiran Raichura and Amy Wood, who focuses on the European market, talk to David Wilder about their work, highlighting potential recoveries and ongoing pain in commercial real estate. They touch on the key issues for investors, including:Which regional markets and which sectors are likely to outperform and which will lag; Why a lot more distressed assets are coming, and where they’ll come from; Whether political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic is weighing on activity. Analysis referenced in this episode:Global Commercial Property ChartpackCMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisisDistress rising, but still a long way to goHow big a threat is debt distress in Europe?

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown speaks about the macroeconomic implications of the global IT outage before going on to explain what’s happening to the world inflation and monetary policy picture. Jenny talks about the challenges posed by sticky services inflation, discusses why central banks can’t afford to wait to cut rates and looks ahead to outline where prices and rates are going over the medium-term.Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, is also on to talk about the outcome of the Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum, explaining why the official communications so far suggest that the economy’s fundamental problems aren’t going away any time soon. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:The economic threat from cyberwarfareWhat explains the stickiness of services inflation?Global rate-cutting cycle is not “one size fits all”Third Plenum fails to resolve policy tensionsCE AdvanceR-Star Dashboard

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth reflects on a couple of crucial inflation reports, explaining how they’ve shifted the disinflation narrative and could even lead to even more aggressive policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year. Paul also discusses with David Wilder how his team is trying to cut through the noise around the US election to forge a coherent view of the US economic outlook in 2025 and beyond. Andrew Kenningham, our Chief Europe Economist, is also on the show to preview the coming week’s ECB meeting but also to talk through Europe’s own election uncertainty as the French political establishment continues to reel from the fall-out from last month’s legislative election against a backdrop of a worsening fiscal picture. 

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics presents our Drop-In briefing to clients the morning after the UK general election. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing spoke to Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory and Ashley Webb from our UK Economics team about the results. During this 25-minute briefing, they highlight key implications for the UK economic outlook as they address client questions, including:How much the new Labour government could increase spending;What the new government could do to boost the UK's dire productivity growth rates;Whether Labour could drive a surge in housing construction – and what that could mean for the economy.We hold several Drop-Ins each week on key issues around macro and markets. These short, online briefings are designed to get clients the analysis and answers they need as quickly as possible. See our upcoming Drop-Ins and watch recordings of previous events here. 

In the aftermath of Joe Biden’s poorly received debate performance, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the market response and highlights potential economic risks around a second Trump presidency. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and talks about the AI’s transformational promise in the wake of a sharp market sell-off in stocks linked to the emergent technology. Plus, Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team preview the coming week’s general election and discuss when we could see details on tax and spending plans from Keir Starmer’s government if the Labour government win on Thursday.Finally, as shipping costs rebound, Simon MacAdam speaks to Leah Fahy about what’s driving their resurgence and whether this presents an inflation risk.

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews upcoming US inflation data, outlines the fiscal challenges facing the next UK Chancellor and explains how Chinese manufacturing overcapacity isn’t just a problem for advanced economies.Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses the growing bubble in US stocks – and why we think it can continue to inflate for now.And Shilan Shah, our India Economics lead, is on the show to talk about how the Indian economy is likely to fare in Narendra Modi’s third term, and why – despite widespread optimism – investors need to be clear-eyed about the country’s long-term challenges. 

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what’s happening in France and what that means for the bond market. He also assesses the Fed’s June meeting and previews what the Bank of England could decide on Thursday – as well as the discussing how the onset of elections could influence these institutions. (00:00-13:30)Plus, following the European Union’s announcement of plans to slap tariffs on Chinese EV imports, Andrew Kenningham and Mark Williams talk through the Union’s strategy, comparing how it stacks up against similar US measures announced just a few weeks ago. (15:54-25:22)Finally, as OPEC lashes out at IEA oil demand forecasts, Olivia Cross talks to Elias Hilmer about our own long-term forecasts for when fossil fuel demand will peak. (26:46-31:02)

Will the US continue to dominate the global economy in the coming years? Will China or Europe ever catch up? Is the US where investors will continue to see stronger stock market returns? The question of US outperformance runs to the heart of the global economic outlook and is the subject of our Spotlight project for 2024. Spotlight is our annual step back from the ebb and flow of macro to dive into those tectonic issues that will shape the global economy and markets and Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown and Hubert de Barochez, a senior economist on our Markets team, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss some of the key takeaways from this work.In their discussion with David Wilder, they talk about the drivers of outperformance, the potential challenges to US dominance, and what happens to relative returns when the US stock market bubble bursts. The Spotlight project launches on Monday, 10th June and details of the project and in-person and on-line events can be found here. 

The European Central Bank is likely to become the first major advanced economy central bank to cut rates since the end of the pandemic when it meets this Thursday – easing policy ahead of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. It’s a move that’s been well flagged by ECB officials, but it’s also one that they probably wouldn’t have signalled quite so strongly given what the latest inflation data show. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Europe economists Andrew Kenningham and Jack Allen-Reynolds preview a key moment in the global economy’s post-pandemic inflation-interest rate cycle. They explain the rationale for this Thursday’s likely move and why the path ahead for easing is less assured.  Andrew and Jack also put this ECB decision in its international context, exploring the risks around lowering European rates even as the Fed stands pat. 

How important are elections for the trajectory of economies? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics explains why the just-announced general election may not be hugely consequential for the UK economy, but also why South Africa’s vote this coming Wednesday could prove momentous. In the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews key inflation data for the US and euro-zone, discusses the latest on the timing of rate cuts and talks about whether an investment frenzy in artificial intelligence is translating into productivity benefits.EM Economists David Omojomolo and Jason Tuvey are also on the show, exploring possible outcomes for South African party politics and their economic implications as the sun sets on thirty years of ANC dominance. Plus, an exclusive clip from our UK election briefing outlines some of the key issues around the July 4 vote, including the fiscal constraints that await the winner, structural reforms and this election’s potential long-term economic impact. 

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses the White House announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and what that signals about the direction of the global economic system. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and explains what to expect from the coming week’s UK CPI release.Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is also on the show, talking to David Wilder about this month’s recovery in US equities, our no longer out-of-consensus 2024 and 2025 forecasts and what to look for before the market bubble finally bursts. And there’s more on those China tariffs, with an exclusive clip from our client briefing about how Europe could respond to Chinese EV imports and whether higher US tariffs will lead to a further reordering of global trade flows.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the latest signals from the Bank of England and that Q1 UK GDP report mean in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. He also previews the coming week’s US inflation data, tells David Wilder why EM monetary easing will need to slow and puts the US current account deficit in context. Also on the show, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks to Leah Fahy from our China team about what his analysis of Chinese auto production and exports says about what’s been missing from the growing global row about Chinese industrial overcapacity.And, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing about global inflation, the team talk services inflation and signs of labour market softening on both sides of the Atlantic. 

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks a tumultuous week that ended on a high. April's soft payrolls report may have given the market much-needed evidence that US disinflationary forces are gathering, but will that sway the Fed? And what can investors expect from the Bank of England this coming week? Neil also frames Xi Jinping’s trip to Europe against a backdrop of rising global trade tensions and previews our upcoming ‘Spotlight’ project, which will answer the question of whether US economic and financial market dominance will continue. Plus, Abhijit Surya from our ANZ team lays out our case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday and, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing, our Commodities team discuss Saudi and Russian oil production in the run-up to the US election and why the copper price rally looks overdone.

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews the coming week’s Fed meeting, tackles market talk that the next move on the US policy rate could be up, addresses an intriguing report about Fed independence and decries the absence of a grown-up conversation around fiscal commitments. Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, is also on the show to talk about what he picked up about the true state of the Chinese economy during a visit to Beijing and Shanghai. Plus, with all eyes on the dollar, an exclusive clip from our online Drop-In briefing on the risks to emerging market economies from a stronger-for-longer greenback.  

In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing assesses just how much the global inflation picture has really changed in the wake of that US March CPI print. He talks to David Wilder about which central banks are likely to cut when, previews a busy week of economic data and explains why a strong dollar isn't as much of a problem for the global economy as many think. And, in the wake of retaliatory Israeli strikes on Iran, he explains how investors should tackle macro and market risks amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Also on the podcast, Deputy Chief Global Economist Simon MacAdam discusses his new report about why excess savings should no longer be considered an issue for DM policymakers and an exclusive clip from our online client briefing about the outlook for financial markets.

Janet Yellen lent official voice to resurgent global worries about the threat of Chinese overcapacity when she pointedly criticised Beijing’s overinvestment and underpowered consumption during her trip there earlier this month.  But are the US Treasury Secretary’s criticisms justified? Will China’s leaders push through the necessary reforms to bring down the savings rate? And how will western governments respond if they don’t?  In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, all about the politics and economics around the perception that China’s factories are once again flooding global goods markets. 

The EM team has taken over the podcast this week to highlight two of the biggest issues in emerging market investing.  William Jackson talks to Shilan Shah about how emerging market economies will fare as fossil fuels are phased out in favour of green technologies. From oil producers in the Gulf and Africa to geopolitics and supply chains, William and Shilan tackle some of the key risks and opportunities facing emerging markets as the green transition progresses. Also, Liam Peach explains how his EM Financial Risk Indicators act as an early warning system for investors trying to identify bank, debt and FX vulnerabilities. In his discussion with Jason Tuvey, Liam talks about which economies are currently flashing red. Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode. 

Before Neil Shearing gets on to discussing the key takeaways from our latest Global Economic Outlook, he talks to David Wilder about the inflationary risks stemming from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge at Baltimore’s port.  The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist also explains what to make of the apparent contradiction of US business leaders making high-profile visits to China even as the US and UK governments slap sanctions on state-affiliated hackers. Also, this November’s big election is happening in the US but is being watched closely worldwide – not least in Canada and Mexico. Jason Tuvey and Stephen Brown talk through the risks of a potential re-election of Donald Trump, not least to the tripartite trade pact. Note: This week's episode is being published early ahead of public holidays in the UK. The next Weekly Briefing will be published on Monday, 8th April.

Germany's economy is in “troubled waters” and doing “dramatically badly” – and those are just the assessments of its economy minister. But are the recessionary conditions in the euro-zone’s biggest economy merely a cyclical blip or signs of deeper structural malaise?  In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Andrew Kenningham, Chief Europe Economist, about our new, in-depth report on the long-term German outlook. Over the course of their discussion on the trajectory of Europe's biggest economy, Neil and Andrew take in everything from the threat posed by Chinese electric cars to the domestic risks of a resurgent political right-wing. 

A few hot(ish) US inflation prints has spooked the market about how easily the Federal Reserve can get back to its 2% target. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses whether those fears are justified and tells David Wilder what to expect from the coming week’s meetings from the Fed and the Bank of Japan.  He also talks TikTok, putting congressional efforts to ban the video app in the broader context of a fracturing global economy.  Plus, an exclusive clip from our recent briefing on the Russian presidential election explains why the economy has proven so resilient to sanctions and outlines what to expect under another six years of Vladimir Putin. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

The good news is our China team has solved a mystery about Chinese property construction: why has it held up so well, even as sales and starts have collapsed? The bad news is that their conclusions point to a painful adjustment with massive implications for China’s growth and policy outlook.  With Neil Shearing out this week, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to tell David Wilder why China faces a wrenching economic future – and why officials at the National People’s Congress seemed so unfazed about the growth challenges. Plus, speculation about Fed rate cuts took hold in Q4 last year and equities prices surged. Then policymakers pushed back on those expectations coming into 2024 – and prices still surged. As a bubble forms in the market, Markets Economist James Reilly explains what’s driving stocks as hopes for policy easing ebb and flow, how stocks could respond when the Fed finally does cut rates, and what a Trump re-election could mean for the market. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

China. Inflation. Trump. In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Neil Shearing addresses some of the questions which kept coming up during a recent round of client meetings in the Middle East and Asia. (00.00-10:15)Also on the show, Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team preview the coming week’s Spring Budget and discuss why the UK’s fiscal constraints mean that the winner of this year’s general election faces some ugly choices. (12:19-20:57)Plus, as the European carbon price falls to fresh lows, Caroline Bain and David Oxley talk about the forces weighing on prices, but also why market reforms should see prices turn around over the medium-term. (22:13-28:25)Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this podcast.

For all the blustering about trade wars, the fact is that Donald Trump’s punitive actions against China during his presidency didn’t do much to hurt its economy. But it’ll be a very different story if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to slap tariffs up to 60% on Chinese imports.  Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing about what Trump 2.0 might mean for China, and how fresh trade actions could exacerbate the forces that are fragmenting the global economy. Neil also explains what lies ahead for this stock market bubble in the wake of that Nvidia earnings report and previews the coming week’s key inflation data for the euro-zone and the US.  Also on the show, Asia-Pacific Head Marcel Thieliant and Senior Markets Economist Tom Mathews discuss what the stunning rebound in Japanese stocks says about its economy and Ariane Curtis from our Global Economics team introduces the Long Run Economic Outlook, our unique, in-depth look at the world to 2050. 

In a week in which UK and Japanese data both confirmed two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why the concept of “recessions” can be unhelpful in understanding the state of economies. He also tells David Wilder why, whoever wins in upcoming elections, governments on both sides of the Atlantic are likely to be shackled by fiscal constraints. Plus, the most aggressive monetary tightening in a generation appears to have succeeded without breaking anything. Is the global economy off the hook or does financial instability still loom? Chief UK Economist Paul Dales speaks to David about his major new study on the theory and practice of tackling financial stability risks in a higher rate world.Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode. 

We’re trying a ‘quickfire round’ on this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to get Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing answering the questions that clients have been asking most frequently in recent days:Could inflation rebound?Could escalation in the Middle East drive up inflation?Are falling commercial real estate valuations fuelling a new banking crisis?Is the boom in US productivity growth sustainable?Will Donald Trump start a trade war if he’s re-elected?Jonathan Petersen from our Markets team is also on the show to speak to David Wilder about the dollar and what the team’s ‘smile’ framework says about how the global economy is shaping the greenback outlook this year. Plus, in an exclusive clip from our latest emerging markets online briefing, economists Leah Fahy, Gareth Leather and David Omojomolo talk monetary policy, debt risks and ongoing restructuring negotiations.  

If Jerome Powell dampened talk of a March rate cut on Wednesday then the January payrolls report on Friday stamped it out for good. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing dives into the latest US jobs numbers to discuss what they say about the health of the labour market and what they signal about the timing of the first Fed rate cut this year. Neil also talks to David Wilder about what’s happening with inflation and labour markets in Europe and the UK and whether generative AI is already giving productivity growth a boost. David also talks to Kiran Raichura about the exposure of US banks to real estate loans. With $1.2tn in loans coming due over the coming two years, Kiran explains where distress is most likely and whether CRE’s problems threaten a crisis in the banking sector. 

Post-ECB and pre-Fed and Bank of England meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what 'data dependency' means for central banks as they try to gauge when to begin rate cuts – and to manage the market’s expectations about when those cuts will start.David Wilder is also joined by Deputy Chief Global Economist Simon MacAdam to discuss the inflation risks stemming from disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea. Simon explains how our new Shipping Disruption Dashboard helps investors cut through the noise to assess exactly what risk Houthi attacks present to global supply chains and the inflation outlook.Finally, in an exclusive clip from our latest monthly Asia Drop-In, China Head Julian Evans-Pritchard and Senior Markets Economist Tom Mathews discuss whether a string of announcements from Beijing will be enough to support the country’s struggling economy and stock markets.Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

Why are markets pushing back on rate cut expectations? How will the ECB play its upcoming meeting? What’s really happening to China’s economy? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles the big macro and market questions in our latest episode of The Weekly Briefing. Plus, our forecast for the S&P 500 this year is one of the most bullish in the market. John Higgins, who leads our financial markets team, tells David Wilder what’s behind the forecast, including why valuations may not be so stretched, how earnings will fare in a weaker US economy, and the risks that a bubble is already forming. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this show.

With US and UK strikes on Houthis in the headlines and Taiwanese voting in their flashpoint election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpicks what the now- clichéd idea that we live in a “more dangerous world” actually means for thinking through macro risk.He discusses with David Wilder our framework for looking at a world that’s fracturing into competing economic blocs and what this means for globalisation, as well as how the US election outcome in November could radically shift the narrative.Neil also previews the coming week’s UK CPI release and explains what it could mean for the timing of rate cuts and talks about what the return of bond vigilantes means for governments in a higher rate world.Plus, last year was a watershed moment for the global energy market as the US became the largest exporter of LNG. Bill Weatherburn from our Commodities team has just completed five-year forecasts which show another 60% surge in US energy net exports.He tells David what will drive the surge, discusses the potential impact of November’s election and what this all means for the global economy.Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this podcast. 

The Fed-triggered financial market exuberance which ended 2023 hasn’t carried into the new year, with yields rising and equities struggling. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what’s changed – and what hasn’t – to explain this mood shift.In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Neil also talks to David Wilder about the latest euro-zone inflation numbers and what they mean for the start of ECB rate cuts. Neil also previews the coming week’s US CPI release and, with Houthi attacks continuing to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, he delves into the inflationary risks around conflict in the Middle East.Plus, with Taiwan’s presidential election less than a week away, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks about potential outcomes. With Taiwan’s status probably the key flashpoint in a deteriorating US-China relationship, this election is likely to be one of the most consequential this year for the global economy.In his conversation with David, Mark profiles the three candidates for the presidency, talks about the potential direction of relations between Beijing and Taipei and explains the consequences for the Taiwanese and global economies. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode. 

After the Fed supercharged the bond market’s recovery, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about issues around 2024’s flagged rate cuts, including the impact of loosening financial conditions as investors front-run policymakers, whether “team transitory” has been proved right, and why the ECB and Bank of England are still sounding decidedly hawkish.Plus, our EM team sees “unusually large” growth divergence coming for emerging market economies in 2024. Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Assistant Economist Leah Fahy highlight the key takeaways from our latest quarterly EM Economic Outlook – including how elections could shape these economies in the coming year.Finally, the agreement among participants of the UN Climate Conference in Dubai was described as “historic”, but what was actually achieved that will help meet climate goals? David Oxley, the head of our Climate Economics coverage, separates the reality from the hype to show why some of the cynicism around the deal isn’t entirely warranted, but also explains the challenges of building out renewables to meet COP28 commitments as well as the long-term impact of the green transition on the oil market.Click here to read the analysis referenced in this podcast episode.

The same questions kept coming up in our client briefings on the 2024 outlook and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles them in this latest episode of our weekly podcast. He talks about why economic resilience will be increasingly tested and which DM central banks are likely to cut rates first, but also talks about what could go wrong for our calls in the coming year. Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory is also on the podcast to explain why the Bank of England won’t be in a hurry to ease policy next year and talk about how immigration is affecting the labour market. We’re also joined by Tom Ryan, who leads our coverage of the US housing market. Amid signs that a weird moment for the market is coming to an end, Tom talks about the outlook for mortgage rates and prices in a year that’s expected to see some hefty rate cuts from the Fed. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this podcast.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing warns the potential threat to fiscal positions from higher rates is “perhaps the most important question hanging over the outlook for the next couple of years”. In this episode, he speaks to Head of Research Vicky Redwood and Andrew Kenningham, Chief Europe Economist, about the size and scope of that threat, including what governments need to do to keep markets onside, whether Italian and US debt positions are particular causes for concern and how a busy year for elections could shape the market’s perceptions of which issuers are at risk.Plus, after the FT’s Martin Wolf highlighted our unique analysis of global economic fracturing, Neil talks to Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams about why investors should be considering US-China competition in terms of blocs of aligned countries and territories rather than as individual economies. Mark shows how that economic competition looks very different when measured by these blocs, but also highlights the risks to our view that fracturing will remain a relatively benign process.Click here to read the analysis and register for the events referenced in this episode.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles what we think will be the key themes for the global economy in 2024, including why the consensus for growth is too optimistic, how quickly the Fed could cut rates and how to think about the macro and market consequences of a full slate of elections. Plus, with COP 28 about to get underway in Dubai, Climate Economics head David Oxley and Climate Economist Hamad Hussain discuss why these high-level meetings aren’t the solution to a successful green transition and highlight just some of the key findings from our new CE Climate Reporting Tools. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode. 

Does the surprise victory of Javier Milei in Argentina's presidential election mean the country is about to experience a raft of unorthodox economic policymaking to fix its ailing economy? How likely is Milei's dollarisation plan? What does this electoral victory mean for Argentina's negotiations with the IMF? In this special episode of The Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Chief EM Economist William Jackson and Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey get to grips with the potential risks around the election outcome and whether Javier Milei has what it takes to turn around the Argentine economy.Click here to explore our dedicated Argentina election hub page.    

After nearly two years of monetary tightening, debate rages over whether advanced economies are heading for recession. However, as Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder in this latest episode, recessions come in more flavours than the two sequential quarters of negative growth that have come to define them. Plus, in the wake of that Joe Biden-Xi Jinping meeting in San Francisco, an exclusive clip from our Drop-In briefing on global fracturing explains why a broad agreement to fix US-China economic relations looks unlikely and what the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could mean for the structure of the world economy.And Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory are on the show to preview the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, including the core dilemma facing Jeremy Hunt and what the OBR’s latest forecasts might signal. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this podcast.

Central bankers have a tough task when it comes to communicating with markets – just ask the Bank of England’s Huw Pill, who started the week hinting at rate cuts and ended it with an insistence that the current setting has to remain in place to quash inflation. In this week’s episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing delves into the challenges that central banks face in articulating policy to the market, and what lies behind the relatively hawkish rhetoric of late. Neil also talks about some of our key calls for the global economy in 2024 and discusses how concerns about debt sustainability will play out next year. The departure of three pandas from a zoo in Washington also comes up in his conversation with David Wilder as they talk through the latest on the fracturing of the global economy. Plus, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey is on the show to talk about Saudi Arabia in a fracturing global economy, including what’s changed in the Kingdom’s relations with Beijing and Washington and how a return of Donald Trump to the White House could affect this diplomatic landscape. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back to discuss what the recent data say about the global economic outlook – including October US payrolls and China PMIs – and what to expect from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England following their decisions to keep rates unchanged over the past week. Neil also explains why a persistent focus on the threats to humanity posed by artificial intelligence is unhelpful. Franziska Palmas from our Europe team is also on the show to discuss her worrying new forecasts for Italy’s debt ratio and whether it could be a trigger for a crisis within the euro-zone. Plus, an exclusive clip from the latest monthly Drop-In briefing in which our Asia team talks through the Bank of Japan’s next steps after that latest tweak to its Yield Curve Control policy.Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.

It's Fed week and Deputy Chief US Economist Andrew Hunter joins David Wilder to discuss what to expect from the Tuesday-Wednesday FOMC meeting, including how the recent surge in long bond yields could influence the decision and accompanying language. Andrew also talks about the new House Speaker and whether Mike Johnson's appointment lowers the risk of a US government shutdown next month. Plus, it's been three weeks since Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel and financial markets have remained largely resilient. Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann tells David why there hasn’t been a greater negative reaction and talks about what recent history has to say about the impact of geopolitical events like these on asset prices.  Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

With the 10-year Treasury yield finally hitting 5%, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the macro risks around rising bond yields, telling David Wilder what this all means for central banks.  He also talks about how policymakers manage geopolitical uncertainty in light of Israel’s conflict with Hamas and talks about how events in the Middle East fit with the idea that the global economy is fracturing into competing US- and China-led blocs. Plus, Mark Williams tackles market talk that China is dumping its dollars and Bradley Saunders discusses his recent analysis on whether AI hype is fuelling a bubble in stock markets. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode. 

Which countries are leading the AI race? What role is AI playing amid growing strategic competition between the US and China? Does AI spell doom for EM outsourcing industries?  Moneli Hall-Harris from our Consultancy division and Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah talk to David Wilder about our AI Economic Impact Index and what its rankings say about which economies are best positioned to develop AI, but also to diffuse and adapt to the technology.  The discussion with Moneli and Shilan includes:   The AI Economic Impact Index’s unique global view of the emergence of AI; How China’s position on the Index contrasts with Beijing’s ambitions; Whether AI will help or hinder emerging market income convergence with developed economies. This is special podcast episode is part of our 2023 Spotlight project on artificial intelligence and its implications for the global economy and markets.  Explore the project, including the AI Economic Impact Index and our report ‘AI, Economies and Markets: How artificial intelligence will transform the global economy’ by clicking here.

The surprise attack on Israel by Hamas last weekend upended a lot of geopolitical assumptions, but what will this mean for the economic and markets outlook? Liam Peach, a senior economist on our Macro team, and Chief Commodities Economist Caroline Bain join David Wilder to talk through the local and regional economic risks around the conflict and the potential knock-on effects on global energy markets. Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing introduces our major new work on equilibrium interest rates, why we’re moving to a world of structurally higher rates, and what this could mean for returns from bonds, equities and a host of other assets through the end of this decade. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

That September US payrolls report has triggered renewed selling in global bond markets. With yields threatening to hit fresh multi-year highs and investors scrambling for reasons behind the sell-off, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann tell David Wilder just worried we should be and what’s likely to happen next. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Neil and Jonas talk through a tumultuous few weeks in bond markets, addressing the key issues around this historic rout, including:  Why bond yields have risen so far in such a short amount of time; Whether yields could rise further from here; The macro fall-out from the yield surge – not least financial stability risks.

Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown provides a sneak peek of our upcoming Q4 Global Economic Outlook. She tells David Wilder why “higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness and also explains why monetary tightening hasn’t had the direct and immediate impact that had been expected. Jenny also previews our upcoming work on neutral interest rates.Plus, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing on the Bank of Japan, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams, Japan lead Marcel Thieliant and Senior Markets Economist Tom Mathews discuss what a Japanese rate hike could look like and how it would affect domestic and global financial markets.  

From hope to reality to hype and hysteria. The rapid development and adoption of generative artificial intelligence may be keeping headline writers busy, but is there anything to their warnings about the technology’s roll-out leading to mass unemployment? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Senior Economic Advisor Vicky Redwood and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discuss AI’s potential as an economic game changer and what that could mean for labour markets.  Vicky and Ruth are two of the co-authors of our Spotlight report AI, Economies and Markets – How artificial intelligence will transform the global economy.They talk to David Wilder about some of the key takeaways from their work looking at AI’s economic and market implications, including:  The size and timing of the coming AI productivity boost; How AI’s productivity boost could have economy-wide effects; Whether AI will lead to a wave of “technological unemployment”. 

The potential of artificial intelligence to reshape the global economy is more than just the breathless hype of headline writers. Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, explains why AI’s impact should be thought of in terms of previous technological developments such as railways and the desktop computer and how they transformed economies in their time.   Ahead of the 26th September launch of our major new report on what AI means for economies and markets, Paul discusses recent developments with large language models, where the technology is heading from here and why this could translate into massive productivity gains.  Plus Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through the latest central bank decisions to address client questions including:  Why we think the Fed will be cutting rates more quickly and aggressively than officials are signalling  Why the latest data from Europe is so worrying  And why bond markets on either side of the Atlantic have been moving in different directions Finally, Neil introduces our forthcoming work on where equilibrium interest rates are likely to settle in a post-pandemic world, and why this is something that all investors – regardless of what they’re investing in – are going to have to pay attention to. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode. 

We think the Fed and ECB have ended their tightening cycles, and that the Bank of England's will be over by the end of this week. With hikes over, attention invariably turns to when rates could be cut. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why investors hoping for clues on timing from central bankers are going to be disappointed.  He also tells David Wilder why the Bank of Japan may seize a chance to raise rates for the first time in 16 years, why hard landing fears around China won’t go away and why Europe’s moves against an influx of electric car imports are about much more than industry protection. Plus, US GDP is pointing up but GDI is pointing down. Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains what could be driving this data discrepancy and why it means it’s still too soon to say the US has dodged a recession. Click here to explore the analysis and reports referenced in this episode.

For consumers, it’s the camera lenses on the outside that may draw them to Huawei's Mate 60 Pro. For those tracking shifts in the global macro narrative, it’s the chip inside the sanctioned Chinese firm’s newest flagship phone that’s most interesting.In the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what one of the Mate 60’s key components means in the context of US controls on technology exports and the fracturing of the global economy.Neil also talks about the significance around Nvidia’s Jensen Huang going to India to meet Narendra Modi and also takes in the inflationary risks around the recent spike in energy prices.Plus, a big growth upgrade means the UK has overtaken Germany and is no longer at the back of the G7 pack. Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Chief UK Economist Paul Dales discuss whether this matters in the grand scheme and the growth outlook for these two struggling economies.

As summer holidays draw to a close attention is quickly turning to September’s big central bank decisions. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and the team have been sifting through weeks of data from the US, euro-zone and UK to assess what the Fed, ECB and Bank of England are going to do when they sit down to decide their next moves on rates. He tells David Wilder what to expect from these meetings, but also what central bankers mean when they keep telling the press that intend to stay the course on policy tightening. Neil also talks about Ernie Bot, the new Chinese AI-powered chatbot, and what its release signals about the global race to dominate in this emerging General Purpose Technology.Plus, is policy paralysis over in Beijing? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks about what’s in the latest stimulus announcement from the Chinese government and whether it’s enough to turn around China’s flagging economy.  Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing walks through the summer’s big market themes to discuss the growth outlook, the China slowdown scares and whether the hype around AI is justified. Along the way, he gives his take on the latest PMI readings, explains the problem with China stimulus hopes and previews our forthcoming work on the impact of artificial intelligence on the global economy and markets.Plus, Tom Mathews, a senior economist on our Markets team, talks about what the enthusiasm around AI is doing to equities valuations now as he talks about that blowout Q2 earnings report from Nvidia. He also discusses why the market has come off the boil in recent weeks, including the rise in bond yields and shifts in the macroeconomic narrative. 

 Government bond yields have been hitting multi-year highs even though data show inflation in retreat and central bankers are preparing to down tools – if they haven’t already. Why the disconnect? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about what’s been happening in the bond market, whether this is why some EMs have been struggling, and what Jerome Powell might say at Jackson Hole this week.  Plus, Global Economist Ariane Curtis has just completed work on the outlook for fiscal policy in developed markets. She talks to Senior Global Economist Simon MacAdam about why policy is likely to continue supporting growth and why this complicates the task of central banks to get inflation under control.And, amid growing fears about China’s economic and financial risks, the team held an online briefing to give clients a chance to ask about everything from where the renminbi is going to local government debt to whether China is turning into Japan. Listen to an exclusive clip from that briefing with Neil, China Economics head Julian Evans-Pritchard and Senior Global Markets Economist Thomas Mathews.Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

While China’s latest price reports have markets worrying about deflation, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing thinks the real issue is what’s happening in core inflation against a backdrop of a struggling economy. He also reviews the “immaculate” July CPI report from the US and what means for the Fed and previews the UK CPI report for July due this coming Wednesday. Plus, Caroline Bain, our Chief Commodities Economist, talks about a raft of supply pinches facing commodities markets, from the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to Indian food protectionism to OPEC+ production cuts. Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.

Economies aren’t doing what Economics 101 says they should be doing, with disinflationary evidence piling up, even as labour markets remain in relatively good shape. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about the sell-off in the bond market, potential paths to a soft landing, and the key messages from the July non-farm payrolls report. He also explains what an announcement from AMD says about artificial intelligence in a world of economic fracturing.Plus, Kimberley Sperrfechter and William Jackson discuss the risks around the upcoming presidential primary in Argentina.Plus, Julian Evans-Pritchard introduces our worrying new estimate for China’s economic trend growth rate and explains what that says about the underwhelming post-COVID recovery.  Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this podcast.

It was one of those turning points in the global economy which deserved more attention: Chinese passenger car exports exceeded Japan’s this past May, powered by the country’s rapidly-expanding electric vehicle sector. It’s a marker of China’s increasing dominance in this emerging industry, and another sign of Japan’s struggles to make more headway, despite its early forays into alternative fuel vehicles. But secure is China’s EV dominance, how big a threat are its EVs to the likes of Toyota, and will a steady flow of EV exports trigger a regulatory backlash? Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, and Marcel Thieliant, who leads our Japan coverage, discuss the Chinese EV challenge and what it means for Japan’s auto industry in this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. During their conversation, Julian and Marcel cut through the hype to address the key issues around the rise of China’s EV industry, including: ·        How Beijing nurtured a globally-dominant EV industry;·        The growing risk of Western protectionism against Chinese EVs;·        How Japan’s car makers lost their lead in alternative fuel vehicles.Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.

The euro-zone may be mired in recession, but that won’t stop the ECB from raising rates again this coming week in order to get inflation – a “greedy beast”, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – under control. Deputy Chief Eurozone Economist Jack Allen-Reynolds tells David Wilder why another 25 basis point hikes is a done deal for this Thursday, but also why the ECB could take rates up to 4% from 3.5% now and keep them there – and what that means for an already-faltering European economy. Plus, Chief Commodities Economist Caroline Bain and Climate Economics head David Oxley discuss some of the macro, market and policy risks around the return of El Niño.And, in an exclusive clip from our UK ‘Drop-In’ about the June CPI report, Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory, Jonas Goltermann and Ashley Webb tell clients why we’ve raised our Bank Rate forecast, what recession will mean for the inflation outlook and what lies ahead for the Gilt market.Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

Markets cheered the US June inflation report, with equities rising and yields falling on solid evidence that the forces that drove core inflation to a four-decade high are in retreat. But is the crisis really over? How will the Fed respond in July and subsequent meetings? And what does the US experience say about the UK and European outlooks?In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about this latest shift in the US inflation narrative and the implications for policy. Neil also previews the coming week’s UK inflation report and discusses the risks to the economic outlook posed by El Niño.Plus, following Wagner Group leader Yezgeny Prigozhin’s dramatic failed rebellion last month, Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach discusses his major new report about Russia’s precarious economy. Liam explains the tricky task that the Putin regime now faces in maintaining macro stability at the same time as prosecuting the war on Ukraine, including the economic pressures that could force the government to seek a way out of the conflict. Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.

We've just published our Q3 Outlook reports for the global economy and markets. They tell a fairly grim near-term story of inflation, recession and weaker equities prices. But there's nuance within that narrative, including emerging markets outperformance and a much, much brighter outlook for stocks beyond 2023. Ariane Curtis and Tom Mathews speak to David Wilder about the key takeaways from their reports ahead of client briefings this coming week. Plus, Neil Shearing explains why the bond market has been freaking out this week, why inflation is taking so long to respond to its monetary medicine and introduces our major new research project coming this September. Click here to explore the events and analysis referenced in this episode. 

Accusations of ‘greedflation’ are flying thick and fast, fuelling public anger over rising prices, putting executives on the defensive and pressuring politicians to do something. But are companies really taking advantage of inflation’s return to maximise profits? Simon MacAdam, a Senior Economist on our Global Economics team, has just completed in-depth analysis into the ‘greedflation’ question and talks to David Wilder about his findings – including why the current debate is fundamentally flawed but also just how much corporate pricing behaviour has inflamed the inflation situation. Plus, what happens in Sintra doesn’t stay in Sintra. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why central bankers sounded so hawkish in their comments to the ECB forum at the Portuguese resort town. He also reviews the latest inflation data and addresses the Bank for International Settlement’s call for fiscal policy to join the fight to get price pressures under control. Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.  

After that shock CPI report and the Bank of England’s aggressive response, Neil Shearing discusses whether the UK is a high inflation-slow growth outlier. Along with his survey of the latest advanced economy data, the Capital Economics Group Chief Economist also talks about what EM central banks have been doing right. And he explains why, despite signs of improvement, fundamental strains in US-China relations will continue to drive the fracturing of the global economy. Plus, in an exclusive clip from our online client briefing following the Bank of England’s June meeting, our UK, Housing and Financial Markets economists answer client questions about the impact of another ratcheting up of Bank Rate on everything from household finances to house prices to the gilt market.  Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.

In this special episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, our team of property economists explain how commercial and housing markets are faring in a world of rapid and large increases in interest rates. Taking in everything from the crisis in the US banking system to panic around UK inflation, the team discuss what’s been happening on both sides of the Atlantic and where they think markets are going.  Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell revisits our forecasts going to into 2023 to discuss whether markets are passed the worst; Andrew Wishart, the head of our UK Housing service, explains what the recent surge in UK mortgage rates means for transactions and prices; Kiran Raichura, our Deputy Chief Property Economist, and Senior Property Economist Matthew Pointon discuss the similarities and differences between the US and UK commercial markets, including the office outlook in both. Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.

China data for May fell short of expectations and Capital Economics clients want to know what the government’s going to do about it. Our China Drop-In was one of two online briefings we held for them last week, along with our post-Fed, post-ECB, pre-Bank of England briefing. In this special episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles some of the most commonly-asked questions during those sessions, including:  What will Chinese stimulus look like? Why is the German economy in such a dire state? Could the Bank of England signal a pause after a June rate hike? Plus, have Turkey and Nigeria come in from the cold? Post-election signals in both countries indicate their presidents are willing to break with the market-unfriendly policies that they’ve previously supported – but is this the real deal? Jason Tuvey and Liam Peach from our EM team talk about the lira and naira’s recent sharp devaluations, the path back to “normal” policy-settings, and whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bola Tinubu are likely to stay the course.Click here to view recordings of the Drop-Ins and the analysis referenced in this episode.

These are not normal economic times and that makes the job of policymakers – and economists – that much harder. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about why this cycle is unlike any other, but also why it's likely to end in recession. Plus, the headline were all about LIV Golf, the PGA Tour and Karim Benzema, but the other big Saudi Arabia story this week was the oil production cut that barely raised a peep in the market. Bill Weatherburn talks about the price outlook and the OPEC+ dynamics that are driving decision-making, while James Swanston explains why he's just slashed his Saudi growth forecast, the chances of more high profile spending in sports and what Antony Blinken's trip to Riyadh signifies. Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.

US stocks ended the week with a broad rally in the wake of the May jobs report, but the S&P 500’s performance this year has been mostly dictated by the outsized strength of just a handful of giant tech firms. Oliver Allen and Adam Hoyes from our Financial Markets team talk to David Wilder about what’s really been happening under the hood of the US stock market, how this has played before and what it means for the outlook for equities.Plus, from that jobs report to euro-zone inflation to the latest PMIs, Simon Macadam from our Global Economics team reviews the week’s data to discuss how they’ve affected the global growth-inflation-policy outlook – including why we still think recessions in advanced economies are on the cards. Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.

Neil Shearing says the UK’s April CPI report was a “horrorshow”. The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist tells David Wilder why sticky inflation readings make recession more likely – despite the popular view that a downturn can be avoided – while previewing May inflation data for the euro-zone and the US non-farm payrolls report.Plus, the reports suggest a deal is near, but what if Democrats and Republicans fail to agree in time and the US actually defaults? Hear an exclusive clip from our client briefing about the macro and market impact if the unthinkable became a reality.Also, most studies tend to understate the impact that a bigger-than-expected rise in global temperatures would have on economic activity. David Oxley, the head of our Climate Economics service, has tried to put that right with new analysis. Here he talks through some of the global and country-level impacts.Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.

The cover story of The Economist magazine this past week has been largely based on our long-held view that China’s economic growth would slow to just 2% by the end of this decade, and wouldn’t surpass the US as the world’s biggest economy. The Capital Economics report outlining this view was first published five years ago this month, and Mark Williams, one of its co-authors, tells David Wilder why the drags on Chinese growth that were highlighted by the China team back in 2018 have only become more pronounced in the intervening years. Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what’s happening in advanced economy housing markets, and why the inflationary surge has helped push through their adjustment from positions of extreme overvaluation. Finally, Liam Peach from our Emerging Markets explains why the result of first-round voting in Turkey’s presidential election is such a negative for the country’s economic outlook.Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.

The sick man of Europe. Broken Britain. Stagflation nation. The UK has had an unenviable post-pandemic economic recovery, lagging other advanced economies on growth but ahead of the pack when it comes to inflation. But how much of what ails the UK economy is cyclical? Are fundamental changes needed to put the economy on a surer footing and, if so, is there the political will to deliver them? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory speak to David Wilder about the UK’s near-term growth, inflation and policy outlook, as well as the longer-term issues that need to be addressed if the current gloomy narrative is going to be changed. Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.

The White House and congressional leaders are still working to try to reach agreement on raising the debt ceiling, but there’s no guarantee that a deal will get done in time. Deputy Chief US Economist Andrew Hunter and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann speak to David Wilder about this latest flare-up over the debt ceiling, including the potential for default, why minting a trillion dollar coin wouldn’t work and what's really going on in the CDS market.Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses some of the big themes that have come out of a series of client roundtables in Asia, including whether China’s economic recovery is already over, why core inflation data look so troubling and what’s wrong with the idea of a BRICS currency.  Read all the analysis referenced in this episode here.

Last week began with another US bank failure and ended with hotter-than-expected headline jobs data. In between, Jerome Powell sounded optimistic about the likelihood of a soft economic landing. But how realistic is that? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about credit conditions, labour markets and why the Fed may have stopped hiking, even as the ECB is set to carry on.Plus, upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections are make or break for the country’s crisis-battered economy. Liam Peach, who leads our Turkey coverage, discusses the risks around the election with Chief EM Economist William Jackson – including the tough choices that Kemal Kilicdaroglu would have to make if he defeats President Erdogan. Click here to read the analysis in this episode.

After months of resistance, China has been making positive noises around talks on restructuring the debt of a number of EM borrowers. But William Jackson, our Chief EM Economist, isn’t optimistic. He talks to Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams about the mounting challenges facing these restructuring talks in an age of global fracturing.Plus, it’s a big week in central banking, with a rate decision from the Fed due on Wednesday and the ECB a day later. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown talks to Paul Dales, who leads our UK coverage, about what we’re expecting, including why the ECB is set to continue hiking rates after the Fed stops, and what we’re concerned about on the inflation front. Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode. 

It’s one of the big questions in markets after March’s banking sector turmoil but the prevailing guides to financial conditions don’t paint a very clear pictures. That’s why Simon MacAdam, our Senior Global Economist, has revamped and relaunched our Financial Conditions Indices – and he’s got a very worrying message about what they have to say about the ease of funding availability and what that means for the economic outlook.Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about the week’s big data releases and their policy implications, as well as some potentially good economic news for Sub-Saharan Africa.Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, our Head of China Economics, talks to Steven Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, about what lies ahead for globalisation in an age of economic fracturing. The discussion includes the current health of globalisation, the risks of a broad reversal of trade flows and evidence so far of US-China decoupling, as well as how the DHL Global Connectedness Index drew on Capital Economics’ work in classifying the world’s economies by geopolitical alignment. Click here to read the analysis referenced in this podcast.

How will the ructions in the banking sector be reflected in the data? Tracking the credit impact of March’s events isn’t as straightforward as it appears, says Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. He talks to David Wilder about how to cut through the noise and where to look for signs that banks are curbing lending activity – including in our proprietary Financial Conditions Indices.Plus, with the UN projecting that India is now the world’s most populous country, Deputy EM Economist Shilan Shah discusses what the country needs to do to make the most of its demographic dividend – including how to bring millions of women into the workforce.  

It may be too soon to say that the banking turmoil is definitively over, but it’s not too early to try to understand why events of the past few weeks are going to leave a painful legacy for the US economy. Chief US Economist Paul Ashworth talks to David Wilder about the coming credit crunch, what this means for the Fed's next moves, and why sentiment can shift like a dam bursting. Also this week: Leah Fahy discusses her work for our Global Economics team looking at countries whose populations are ageing rapidly and how this has shaped their labour forces. (9:41) An exclusive extract from a client briefing on the bank turmoil given by our Asia team discusses Indian NPLs, China as a safe haven, and what’s lurking in Japanese overseas lending. (17:04)

Two weeks into the banking sector turmoil and there are few signs that the panic is ending. David Wilder speaks to Neil Shearing about why investors are still uneasy, whether central banks have made a mistake, and why there's growing focus on commercial property holdings amid the intensifying hunt for the next source of instability. Plus, wheat consumption has typically grown along with the global population. But that's set to change, according to economist Bradley Saunders. He talks to Caroline Bain about his new report which warns of an unprecedented drop in consumption in the coming years.Click here to read the analysis referenced in this podcast.  

As the dust began settling on a hastily arranged takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, our economists briefed clients on what’s next in this recent surge in turmoil in the banking sector. In these excerpts from the briefing, you’ll hear them discuss key issues, including:  Whether the Credit Suisse deal draws a line under this crisis;  What to expect from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England’s March meetings; Why, even if this is the end of the turmoil, even deeper recessions loom. Participants: Jennifer McKeown, Chief Global Economist Vicky Redwood, Senior Economic Adviser Paul Ashworth, Chief US Economist Paul Dales, Chief UK Economist Jack Allen-Reynolds, Deputy Chief Euro-zone Economist Jonas Goltermann, Deputy Chief Markets Economist

A rushed deal for UBS to take over embattled rival Credit Suisse ahead of the start of the Monday open is the latest effort by authorities to restore market confidence and staunch a crisis in the banking sector that is now threatening to run into its third week. Has enough been done? As details of the UBS-Credit Suisse deal trickled out, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses some of the uncertainties around the weekend’s events but also points to the bigger picture macroeconomic risks associated with this crisis.Plus, ahead of the release of a key UN report on the climate crisis, David Oxley, the head of our Climate Economics coverage, explains why we think the long-held relationship between emissions and economic growth will break down and why India will become the world’s biggest polluter in the coming decades. Click here to access the analysis referenced in this episode.

Could turmoil in the US banking sector mark the end of Fed rate hikes? What are the contagion risks from the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank? What will the regulatory response look like?This is a special Capital Economics Weekly Briefing episode all about the SVB crisis. It contains some key edited excerpts from an online briefing held for clients with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Chief US Economist Paul Ashworth, Chief Global Economist Jenny McKeown and Chief Markets Economist John Higgins. The briefing was held at 0900 New York/1300 London on Monday, 13th March. The full recording, and all our key coverage about this crisis, can be found on our dedicated SVB page.

Was Silicon Valley Bank's failure an isolated case of bad balance sheet management, or does it point to the start of another financial crisis? As policymakers scrambled to shore up market confidence ahead of the open, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discussed what SVB means for the broader economic and policy outlook. Plus:· Julian Evans-Pritchard, our Head of China Economics, on what another five-year term with Xi Jinping in charge means for China and the world.· And, Senior Global Economist Simon MacAdam explains why the big hit to economic activity from monetary tightening so far is still to come.Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.

It’s US payrolls week and all eyes will be on whether January’s blowout jobs growth number was just a one-off or confirmation that – despite the Fed’s actions – the labour market remains tight.Labour market conditions matter hugely for how much further central banks across advanced economies have to go to whip inflation. The challenge is in understanding how they're evolving as pandemic-era distortions take their time to fade. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses with Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief US Economist Paul Ashworth what’s going in labour markets and what this means for policy, with a special focus on February non-farm payrolls and how the Fed will respond. Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.

By mid-century, India will have risen to become the world’s third biggest economy. But China will remain at number two, despite forecasts that it is set to overtake the US. These are findings from our latest Long Run Economic Outlook, a report which looks out decades to show a global economy that has been reshaped by intense US-China competition, but also by major demographic shifts and the widespread adoption of productivity-boosting technologies. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discuss just some of the report’s key takeaways, including the forces that will propel India up the global GDP rankings but will also hold China back from the number one spot.Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the phone from a departure lounge in Singapore after a week briefing clients – and it seems they share common near and long-term concerns about what’s happening in the global economy. Click here to access the analysis referenced in this episode.

Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago this week, prompting a torrent of prediction about how much this singular moment would change Europe’s economy forever. 12 months later, David Wilder talks to Andrew Kenningham, our Chief Euro-zone Economist, and Liam Peach, our Emerging Europe research head, all about how the war in Ukraine has – and hasn’t – altered Europe’s economic picture. Plus: A looming UK recession will trigger a wave of corporate insolvencies. Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory talks to UK Economist Olivia Cross about how big this wave will be and how it will affect the UK’s long-term economic outlook. As Nigerians prepare to head to the polls for a crunch presidential election, Jason Tuvey and Virág Fórizs discuss what this could mean for the future of Africa’s biggest economy. Click here to read the analysis referenced in this analysis.

Not only have emerging market economies, for the most part, come through this aggressive global tightening cycle without being plunged into a 1980s or 90s-style debt crisis. In many cases, their central banks were raising rates even as their advanced economy peers were still debating whether inflationary forces were “transitory”. In the latest episode of The Capital Economics Weekly Briefing:·        Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what’s changed in EMs since crises past; ·        Why their central banks didn’t hesitate to raise rates; ·        How they’re likely to fare as advanced economies stall. Plus: ·        With the Adani Group’s woes continuing to dominate the headlines, our EM team assess Indian – and broader emerging world – bank vulnerabilities. Click here for the analysis referenced in this episode.

A stunning January jobs report has shifted the market narrative around the US economy, but has the fundamental story really changed that much? And does the economic picture justify the market’s bullish start to 2023 or have investors been partying in the face of a looming recession? Paul Ashworth, our Chief US Economist, joins Chief Markets Economist John Higgins for a discussion about what’s really happening in the US economy, what the Fed is likely to do, and what this all means for US equities, bonds and the dollar. Click here to read the analysis in this episode.

In this episode: Forecasts are being revised up, the global tightening cycle is slowing down and markets are cheering. But are things really looking better? Group Neil Shearing reviews the recent data – including January’s stunning US payrolls numbers – as he explains why the isn’t an entirely feelgood story. Plus; Long-standing buyers of US Treasuries may not have the appetite they once did, says Tom Mathews from our Markets team in an in-depth new report.. He discusses what this means for the outlook for yields. Click here to read the research referenced in this episode.

In this week's episode: It's a big week for markets, with US December payrolls due and the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England all set to deliver their first policy decisions of the year. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what to expect, showing how the economic landscape has shifted since these institutions last voted on rates and highlighting the scope for any surprises. Also this week; Andrew Kenningham and Jack Allen-Reynolds from our euro-zone team talk through the ECB's policy challenges; And Sheana Yue and Gareth Leather on what China's reopening means for Asia.  Click here to read all the research referenced in this episode.

Headlines have been dominated by talk of what follows this most recent era of globalisation, forming the basis of this year’s Davos meetings and a new IMF paper warning of a potentially major hit to the global economy. It’s a theme we’ve been discussing with clients for months, leading up to and following last October’s publication of our work on the fracturing of the global economy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what's missing from the debate around fracturing, what the world economy looks like in an age of fracturing, and explains which countries and sectors will be most vulnerable as geopolitics increasingly drives policy-making. Plus, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood talks to Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown about housing market downturns and what they mean for advanced economies and the timing of central bank pivots. Click here to read the research referenced in this episode.

This special episode is all about property markets, with Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell leading wide-ranging discussions about what to expect in 2023 and some key sector trends. In this episode: Andrew outlines our forecasts for US, UK and European markets this year, explaining how bad things can get as recessions take hold; Kiran Raichura, head of our US Commercial Property coverage, and Property Economist Sam Hall run through our latest rankings of US metro demand, exploring the factors behind southern markets taking the top spots as most desirable among remote workers; Andrew talks with David Oxley, the head of our Climate Economics coverage, about the property sector's outsized contribution to global carbon dioxide emissions and what it can do to decarbonise, including office versus residential and how construction regulations in emerging markets need to catch up.  Click here to read the reports referenced in this episode. 

China’s economy was tied down by the government’s tough zero-COVID regime. And then it wasn’t. The virus appears to have ripped through much of China’s urban population in the wake of the dramatic policy U-turn by Beijing, setting the stage for a dramatic rebound in economic activity this year. But how big will it be, and what will it mean for the global outlook in 2023? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, about what could be one of the year’s biggest economic curveballs. Plus, after a cheering US CPI report, Senior US Economist Andrew Hunter and Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, discuss about what lies ahead for US and Canadian inflation and what the Fed and Bank of Canada are likely to do next. Click here to get the research referenced in this episode.

It was meant to be a discussion all about the upside and downside risks that clients should keep an eye on in 2023. But a growing online debate about attempts to push the renminbi in energy trade between China and the GCC countries sidetracked it. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing does talk about potential inflation surprises – both positive and negative – and address what post-zero-COVID China could mean for the 2023 global outlook. But his conversation with David Wilder also takes in geopolitical risk, and that brings up the faddish idea of a "petroyuan" and whether it could displace the US dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency. Also this week, Mark Williams and Julian Evans-Pritchard from our China team talk about what's really happening on the ground in China following the government's abrupt public health policy U-turn and what that means for the timing of an economic recovery. You'll find the research referenced in this episode here.

The Bank of Japan's last policy meeting of 2022 was a big one, with a surprise announcement of changes to its yield curve control policy. In this special episode, Marcel Thieliant, who leads our Japan coverage, speaks to David Wilder about out what the Bank has done, whether it is sustainable and what it means for the Japanese policy outlook. 

Say what you want about 2022, but it wasn’t a dull year. After 12 months of geopolitical upheaval, the biggest inflationary spike in decades, central bankers going full Volcker and giant swings in financial markets, what will 2023 bring? In this special end-of-2022 episode, Neil Shearing, our Group Chief Economist, and Chief Markets Economist John Higgins discuss what to expect in the coming year for economies and markets, talking recession, China and zero-COVID and why equities may have yet to bottom out. See our guide to The World in 2023 for more key calls for the coming year. 

Last week was a relatively quiet one for markets. The same won’t be said about this coming week. US inflation data and a slew of central bank decisions will give investors plenty to chew over as they scan for signs that the end of monetary tightening cycles could finally be looming into view. Will policymakers at the Fed, the ECB and/or the Bank of England give the market what it wants? Plus, the stunning political comeback of Lula in Brazil has fuelled hopes of a renewed push to curb deforestation in the Amazon. Will the incoming President do what it takes, or will other economic challenges take priority?Research referenced:Fed: Peak in rates coming into viewECB set to hike by 50bp; more to come next yearBoE: Peak is in sight, but we’re not there yetLula’s fiscal plans intensify Brazil’s public debt risks

The Ever Given made worldwide headlines when it became stuck in the Suez Canal in March 2021. The cargo ship's dilemma symbolised global supply chain disruptions that were reflected in a record surge in shipping costs. But those costs are now falling as quickly as they rose in 2020-21. What’s behind the plunge, and can this help win the battle against inflation? In this episode of The Weekly Briefing, Simon MacAdam and Leah Fahy from our Global Economics team get to grips with the rise and fall – and potential disinflationary impact – of shipping costs. Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what zero-COVID means from a global macro perspective and explains why the latest UK house price was so shocking. 

China's zero-COVID policy is under mounting strain as the economy reels and public anger grows. The government is responding but will it be enough to bring relief to China's economic outlook and its beleaguered public? And what do record infection numbers and the threat of more lockdowns mean for the global economy? On 29th November, economists from our China, Global, Commodities and Markets teams held a special online briefing with clients to take questions and explain what the latest developments mean for everything from vaccination rates to global oil demand to the renminbi. In this special edition of The Weekly Briefing, you can hear the 25-minute discussion between Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams, Senior Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann and Commodities Economist Ed Gardner.    

Recent data releases suggest the global economy is holding up better than anticipated by gloomy forecasts (including ours). But it's far too soon to breathe a sigh of relief. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why there's still appetite among central banks to keep raising rates, and why recessions still loom in advanced economies. Plus, EM sovereign debt may be in better shape than in the past, but households and corporate borrowing has surged and they now face a sharp rise in debt service costs – are they going to be able to cope? Liam Peach and Shilan Shah from our EM team discusses which economies are most vulnerable. 

This year’s has been a dollar rally for the ages, but recent weeks have seen the currency come under pressure. That’s fuelling talk that the greenback is finally past the peak with only downside ahead. Jonas Goltermann and Jonathan Petersen from our FX Markets team aren’t convinced and in this episode they talk about the drivers of dollar strength this year and what – if anything – has changed of late. Plus, fresh from client meetings in New York and Toronto, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives our take on the latest activity data and what they mean for the policy outlook and whether Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement means the UK government has finally made its peace with markets. 

Despite the rumours, the Chinese government isn't about to abandon zero-COVID. Although new measures to tweak the rules raise hopes of a near-term end to the draconian policy, Mark Williams and Julian Evans-Pritchard explain the many difficulties involved in doing so – including the fact that the economy would likely suffer, rather than get a boost, from scrapping it. Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the challenges central bankers face at this stage of the monetary tightening cycle, not least in understanding inflation dynamics and how far rates will have to rise accordingly.    

A slew of central bank decisions last week highlighted a range of policy dilemmas at this stage of the tightening cycle, from the impact of higher rates on teetering housing markets to the threat that even hints of a slower pace of hikes triggers a market stampede back into risky assets. In this episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through the outcomes of the meetings to explain how policymakers are coping with the challenge. Plus, as COP27 kicks off in Sharm El Sheikh, David Oxley, the head of our new Climate Economics coverage, explains why multilateral efforts such as these aren't the answer to containing the rise in global temperatures. 

Central bankers are driving the global economy into its steepest downturn in four decades, barring the GFC and the pandemic. But which economies will be hardest hit and how will the onset of recession change the inflation-monetary tightening calculus? David Wilder speaks to Jennifer McKeown, the head of our Global Economics coverage, about our just-published Q4 Global Economic Outlook and asks her why, even with such gloomy forecasts, the risks are skewed to the downside. 

David Wilder talks to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing about the latest on the central bank war on inflation. They discuss what signs of persistently high core numbers mean for expectations for how far and fast interest rates need to rise and the role that weaker activity and cooling housing markets will play in easing price pressures. Plus, our Europe team has slashed its forecasts for euro-zone growth next year. Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham explains what's dragging on the economy and whether the ECB will change tack accordingly.  

The Communist Party 20th Congress will accelerate a huge personnel reshuffle throughout the party and the state apparatus, affecting key policymakers including central bank governor Yi Gang, Guo Shuqing, the chief bank regulator, and Liu He, a Vice Premier known as Xi Jinping's "economic czar". David Wilder talks to Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard about who might replace these influential reformist voices within the government, but also what it will mean to be a reformist under Xi's more centralised and authoritarian decision-making process. Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses whether Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's defenestration marks an end to the UK's crisis.      

Globalisation isn't dead, but it is undergoing a fundamental shift which will reshape the global economy and markets in the years ahead. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses The Fracturing of the Global Economy, our major new research project, which makes the case for the resurgence of geopolitics as a major driver of economic and market outcomes for the first time in a generation. He talks about how the global economy is coalescing US and Chinese economic blocs and explains what this will mean for flows of everything from finance to technology to people. 

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing flew from London to Singapore intending to talk global macro with clients there. Instead, his discussions were dominated by the chaos of the UK's political economy. He calls in (on an occasionally spotty line) from Changi Airport to explain the teachings that an extraordinary week for the UK have for other governments and central banks as interest rates move up from historic lows. Also this episode, Jennifer McKeown, who heads our Global Economics service, discusses our new global forecasts and we have an exclusive extract of our Markets team briefing clients on FX intervention in Asia.