In this livestream, Global Head of Investment Communications Kiran Ganesh and colleagues discussed the implications for Fed easing and US equities, while evaluating risks from the upcoming US election, and looked at the scenarios for the months ahead.

US Michigan consumer sentiment is due, including the inflation expectations reading. Is this useful information? It is not. The data will be distorted by frequency bias (there is more to life than food and fuel for the family fleet of SUVs, but that is pretty much all US households focus on for inflation). Political bias will also distort the data—Republicans think they are living in Weimar Germany, Democrats think inflation is under control.

Patricia Zobel serves as Head of Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, and previously served as an executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed). Patricia shares perspective on a range of topics, spanning an outlook for the US economy, to the direction of monetary policy. We also spend time on allocation preferences across fixed income, real estate, and ex-US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation revisits the emerging markets as we explore opportunities across equities and bonds, along with touch on what investors should keep in mind as it relates to the upcoming US election. Plus, we take inventory of what was a busy month of September spanning monetary and fiscal policy developments out of the US and China. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The authors of the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book are clearly followers of TikTok memes. The economy was described as being modest and demure (actually as growing at a “slight or modest pace” but it amounts to the same thing). The benign growth story fits with most economists’ central projections. On inflation, anecdotes suggested a more concerted resistance to profit-led inflation from consumers.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs diverging viewpoints when it comes to the condition and health of the US economy, along with whether there is further room to run in equity markets in consideration of realized returns over the past couple of years. In doing so, Burkhard breaks down the anatomy of bull-and-bear markets.

ECB President Lagarde is set to speak again. It is very unlikely that the last 24 hours have changed the world view of the ECB president. The tone of yesterday’s remarks signaled the direction of travel for Euro area rates was clear, though there was an attempt to insert some ambiguity about the pace of easing.

We spotlight the latest edition of the quarterly UBS CEO Macro Briefing book as we explore how business owners and investors feel about the upcoming US election, the state of the US economy, the course ahead for Fed monetary policy, and more. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s pontification of Federal Reserve speakers created a stir in bond markets. There were a range of views expressed, from “keep on cutting” to “more gradual cuts”. Markets, rendered skittish by Fed’s “data dependency” on undependable data, have raised yields. US inflation is down one percentage point since last December, which would justify a similar reduction in rates over the course of this year.

On this episode, Jason and Ron meet in-studio to discuss investment considerations and opportunities as it relates to potential outcome scenarios of the upcoming US election. They also spend time exchanging thoughts on the health of the US economy, the road ahead or monetary policy, and more. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ron Temple, Chief Market Strategist with Lazard Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on Oct 17.

As talk of a “no landing” scenario for the US economy has reemerged, Jason weighs whether the US economy has already landed, though with a 5% nominal growth rate. We also discuss CIO’s recent upgrade of equities to “attractive” and outline additional asset class views per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

German September producer prices are expected to stay in deflation (this is not a surprise, they have been in deflation for over a year). While other factors will add noise to consumer price data, producer prices are a better reflection of corporate pricing power. The deflation signals should secure expectations for further rate cuts from the ECB.

US data once again reminded investors of the wisdom of never underestimating the hedonism of the US consumer. September retail sales were strong (the data do include the effect of inflation). Consumers are often disbelieving of the data, but the value of US retail sales are up over 25% from the start of 2021 while goods inflation is up a little more than 17% over the same period. That suggests a rising living standard, at least when measured by material possessions.

As we look towards year-end, Frank Sileo drops by the studio to provide a performance update and outlook for the preferred securities sector. We also spend some time highlighting positioning considerations within preferreds. Featured is Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The ECB meets. Final September Eurozone consumer price data should confirm that inflation has fallen almost nine percentage points from its peak, and a whole percentage point this year. Cutting rates is simply an act of chasing inflation lower and keeping real rates stable.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Former US President Trump suggested tariffs of up to 2,000% on cars imported from Mexico (an unconventional interpretation of NAFTA). US and European investors have viewed proposed tariffs as a bargaining device, not to be taken seriously. The random suggestion of numbers like 2,000% does suggest more rhetoric than rigorous policy analysis. However, the repeated theme of trade taxes implies the policy is important.

Our conversation updates on relief and recovery efforts for hurricane-impacted states, recent developments surrounding growing tensions across the Middle East, and what key swing state polling is pointing to with Election Day just a few weeks away. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK labor market data are due. Employment is not a constraint on British consumers (and unemployment data come with quality health warnings). Average earnings will be a market focus, although if flexible working allows people to move into higher paid employment this raises average earnings without raising wages.

As we begin a new trading week, Jason takes inventory of potential sources for volatility in the coming weeks, as it relates to uncertainty surrounding economic data, Fed policy, the US election, Q3 corporate earnings, and policy developments out of China. Plus, a review of CIO’s current positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s much anticipated economy ministry press conference over the weekend did not give much detail. There were hints, and suggestions, and promises, but few clear proposals. International investors are looking for fiscal support because if consumers are restricting spending out of concerns for the future, monetary policy easing is unlikely to offer much help.

As we conclude another trading week, Matt reflects on the latest round of inflation data, along with recaps the September FOMC meeting minutes. We also spend time addressing current equity market valuations, equity positioning views, along with the commencement of corporate earnings reporting. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US September consumer price data signaled disinflationary trends. Food prices have disproportionate political importance, but around 40% of the monthly increase in food prices was due to eggs. Can an election be swayed by an egg? Some key states saw food prices fall compared to August. Voters remember price levels, and tend to have an idea of a “fair” price for food items that would have been fixed in their minds many months ago. The political impact of this price report is probably marginal.

US September consumer price inflation should show a slower rate of growth in the headline measure. Now that the Federal Reserve has finally started its easing cycle, this matters a little less to markets, but it is still important. Critically, middle-income inflation is running at about half the headline rate, and that gives the group an important degree of spending power.

On this episode, Jason and Ken meet in-studio to discuss investment considerations and opportunities across Artificial Intelligence, private markets, and real estate. They also spend time exchanging thoughts on the health of the US economy, the road ahead or monetary policy, and more. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ken Caplan, Global Co-Chief Investment Officer with Blackstone. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on Sep 26. Blackstone and portfolio company data discussed in this podcast (including portfolio revenue, default and other data) is as of Q2 2024, unless otherwise stated.

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating. This meeting cut interest rates by 50bps, and had the first Fed governor dissenting in over two decades. Dissents may possibly be managed as part of the theater of the Fed—a single high profile dissent may mask wider disquiet at the scale of the rate cut. Certainly Fed Chair Powell’s dependence on dodgy data is looking a questionable strategy in the wake of recent (inevitable) data revisions.

October House View live conversation, featuring insights from Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, CIO Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist, CIO Americas. Recorded on Oct 3.

New York Federal Reserve President Williams—a genuine economist, who should thus be listened to —signaled that the Fed is happy with the state of the US economy and that two 25bp rate cuts this year would be appropriate. This clearer guidance for the future is a big improvement on Fed Chair Powell’s inept dependence on dodgy data.

On this week’s Snapshot, Jason reflects on the latest round of jobs data and weighs what a better-than-expected growth outlook means for the Fed’s monetary policy course into 2025. We also spend time outlining CIO’s current allocation views and guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US employment report last week was wrong, because the data always is. However, the general direction of US employment signals an economy very far from “recession”. However, voters do not think about abstract concepts like GDP, have a distorted view of price levels, and believe that pay increases are due to them working harder. While the reality is people have a higher standard of living for the same amount of work, the perception is people are working harder to stand still.

As we close out the trading week, Brian and Paul weigh in on the latest jobs data, and what it means for the health of the US economy, along with the course ahead for monetary policy. Plus, we review CIO’s current allocation recommendations, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

It is US employment report Friday, the monthly celebration of dubious quality data that always thrills markets. Looking at the broad picture of the US labor market, the position is what it has been all year. Firms are slower to hire, but not keen to fire. This gives job security, and supports consumer spending patterns.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard turns focus to the notable rally across Chinese markets in recent time, and speaks to how investors should interpret the move, along with shares investment lessons to consider.

The economic calendar is strewn with irrelevancies in the form of business sentiment opinion polls. For-profit polls crave the oxygen of publicity, but neither their profit motives nor the attendant media attention are guarantees that they reflect economic reality. Partisan bias, inaccurate answers to questions, and falling response rates are all challenges to the usefulness of surveys (of any kind).

Hear from Mark Haefele, GWM Chief Investment Officer, Kiran Ganesh, Global Head of Investment Communications, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation for CIO Americas, and Carolina Corvalan, Fixed Income Strategist.

Markets have responded to escalating violence in the Middle East. Overnight missile attacks by Iran against Israel differed from those in April—there was less warning, and faster missiles were used. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has pledged retaliation. Investors have seen this as a more serious escalation, and oil prices have risen. However, even at higher levels oil prices are still near the lows for the year. This limits the economic consequences for now.

With the Fed’s easing cycle underway, we examine how central banks across the EM landscape are moving toward accommodative policies, and the implications for investors. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US vice-presidential debate is more political entertainment than market relevant. Investors are interested in policy details, and election probabilities. Policy details are unlikely (neither campaign wants to give their opponents ammunition). Vice-presidential debates rarely affect the main political race. The question is whether this debate generates the same level of TikTok content as the presidential debate.

As the third quarter concludes, we take stock of the US economy and financial markets heading into the fourth quarter, as well as other geopolitical matters, along with developments within China. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Politics can dominate headlines without creating meaningful consequence for financial markets. Escalating military action in the Middle East is an example. Investors are likely to focus on consequences for oil prices and safe-haven flows, which seem muted for now. The success of the far-right in Austria’s weekend elections may be a larger investor concern. The global trend toward prejudice politics risks disrupting global trade and capital flow in the near term, and undermining the benefits of technological change in the longer term.

Brad rejoins the podcast to discuss the investment thesis behind CIO’s most preferred view of the US financials sector. We cover a performance update, and outlook, along with a look at related investment themes, risk considerations, and sub-sector preferences. Featured is Brad Ball, Financials Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We close out a busy week by recapping the annual UN General Assembly in New York, how an agreement was reached to avoid a shutdown of the US government, along with a look at the latest developments on the Presidential campaign trail. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affair US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the relaunch of the Municipal Market Guide publication series, Sudip drops by the studio to discuss performance trends across the muni market, along with a near-term outlook, and positioning views. We also spend some time spotlighting the Private Higher Education sector. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As September quickly draws to a close, Burkhard reflects on how this traditionally turbulent month for investors has not proven as such here in 2024. With that, Burkhard considers scenarios, or unexpected possibilities, that could serve as ‘the next surprise’ for both equity and bond investors. Plus, thoughts on the Cycling World Championship in Zurich, Switzerland.

Yesterday’s US GDP revisions offered several lessons to investors. The tendency for many countries to revise economic activity frequently, significantly, and positively is a reminder that real-time data lacks precision and data dependency is not a proper policy framework. Someone should attempt to explain that to Federal Reserve Chair Powell. The 2022 “technical recession” (a media term, not an economist’s term) was predictably revised out of existence.

In the wake of new economic stimulus measures announced by China’s central bank, Xingchen Yu drops by to review the announced measures, what they’re aimed at, along with both the economic and investment implications that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Leslie and Barry rejoin for a deeper dive look into the implications of the Fed’s commencement of policy easing to fixed income assets, in particular credit sectors. We also cover CIO’s broader thinking when it comes to positioning across fixed income, in anticipation of further easing measures by the Fed to be implemented through year-end. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategist, Barry McAlinden. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US offers the “final” revisions to second-quarter GDP alongside annual data revisions. Declining real-time date reliability means that revisions matter to economists. US growth data is generally underestimated quite a bit, in the early releases. This problem may increase in the future—for instance, budget cuts mean that labor market data is likely to become less reliable.

A fireside chat which covers the current market and macro environment, including thoughts around the US economy, the Fed, the upcoming US election, and positioning across fixed income and real estate. Featured is Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Policy interests markets, but few voters. Emotion tends to be more important in elections. The global rise of economic nationalism is rooted in emotion, but is also a policy with real world consequences. Yesterday, former US President Trump pledged to use corporate tax cuts and consumer tax increases (via tariffs) to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. Who would do those jobs with near full employment was not specified. Investors have hitherto regarded Trump’s tariff proposals as being emotional rather than policy, given their extreme nature.

It’s Climate Week in New York! Amantia drops by the studio to outline the focus items of Climate Week, this as part of the annual United Nations General Assembly. We also discuss the implications of US election outcomes to climate policy, what’s in focus as it relates to ESG at the ‘State Level’, and the historical performance of sustainable investments during both Republican and Democrat administrations. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements, eased home ownership regulation, and proposed support for equity markets. The measures were announced with considerable dramatic effect, presumably aiming to ensure China’s officially reported GDP data meets the official GDP target.

We kick off the trading week by reviewing the latest UBS House View and positioning recommendations. Jason also weighs whether the Fed’s aggressive commencement of easing signifies a sustained soft landing on the horizon, along with the newly in focus debate over the terminal Fed funds rate. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There are a few Federal Reserve speakers scheduled, freed from the self-imposed silence that precedes a policy decision. Fed President Bostic, talking specifically on the economic outlook, is likely to attract attention. Markets want to hear that the Fed is scrambling to catch up with falling inflation, not that there is anything wrong with the economy. Fed President Kashkari is speaking on childcare—not immediately market moving, but important. Flexible working has allowed women (who are disproportionately responsible for childcare) to move to better paid jobs.

In the wake of the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, the CIO fixed income team spends time reflecting on the policy shift, what to look out for in the months ahead, and what an easing policy environment means for fixed income assets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

US politics keeps resurrecting ideas from the 1970s—most recently questioning central bank independence. Some economists argue that Federal Reserve Chair Powell is the worst central bank head since Fed Chair Burns (who served US President Nixon). Burns was independent in theory, but not in practice. Former US President Trump suggested this week’s rate cut was political in nature, and that the Fed should be more under his control. US President Biden defended Fed independence yesterday.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reacts to yesterday’s decision by the FOMC to cut interest-rates for the first time in four years, and what this policy move might mean for the economy and markets. We also touch on the implications to the yield-curve, along with global environment for debt, inflation, and market preferences.

The US rate-cutting cycle began with a 50bp cut—the sort of move normally reserved for an economic emergency. The US has near full employment, steady consumption, and rising real wages. This is no economic emergency. It is not plausible to claim Federal Reserve Chair Powell knows something economists do not (especially after yesterday’s press conference). The fact that a Fed governor dissented for the first time in 19 years helped reduce the impression of panic.

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on the outcome of the September FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Finally, several months later than it should, the Federal Reserve will cut rates today. Stressing data dependency when data are not dependable has led to this unnecessary delay. The Fed has been lucky the damage has been limited—middle-income borrowers locked in mortgages at absurdly low rates, and real rates for borrowers (deflated by income growth) have not risen too much.

Our conversation focuses on considerations around tax management, namely if the capital gains tax rates go higher, does it make sense to harvest capital gains at the lower tax rate today. We also review additional tax changes being proposed that investors should be mindful of. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As Election Day in the US quickly approaches, Paul drops by the studio to outline the economic agendas of both candidates, and reviews the implications of certain outcomes to global entrepreneurs and business owners. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is hedonism day in the US, with the release of August retail sales data. Two limits to the data. This is a value measure, and US goods prices have been falling for four months now. This underrepresents consumption at a time when people are still favoring fun over goods. Instagram reels of holidays and congealing restaurant meals cost money (and of that spending, only the congealing restaurant meals are captured in retail sales).

We begin by updating on the second assassination attempt of former President Trump, and where that investigation stands. We also discuss where negotiations stand as it relates a government funding bill, bipartisan legislative initiatives aimed at China, along with a look at the polls a week out from the recent Presidential debate. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The big event this week is the anticipated commencement of Fed rate cuts. Joining us to discuss outcome expectations, potential market response, and why focusing on the size of the cuts is not the most important issue, is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting this week. A rate cut is clearly expected (and long overdue), as inflation pressures continue to fade in the US. However, a rate cut of more than 25bps seems unlikely—while the Fed is late in cutting rates, a larger move might be taken as a sign of panic. Higher frequency cuts rather than larger cuts seem most likely.

As we close out another trading week, Matt drops by the podcast to reflect on recent equity market return drivers, along with recaps this week’s inflation data. We also outline current views on equity positioning, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US has more people employed, working longer hours, for more pay. Last Friday’s employment report essentially summarized a soft economic landing. There was evidence of slower hiring (without firing) in the employment details, also consistent with a soft landing. While the Federal Reserve is late in cutting rates, the delay has not yet done much economic damage.

The team discusses takeaways from the first presidential debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, CIO’s latest views on the state of the race, and investment implications. Featured speakers are Jason Chandler, Head of GWM Americas, Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, and John Savercool, Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy.

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets.

The European Central Bank is expected to ease rates a quarter point today, as it continues its policy of following inflation lower. Seen over a proper time frame this is not properly a stimulus, as it is more focused on stabilizing real rates. Lagarde’s press conference will hopefully signal a steady pace of rate cuts to come.

Our conversation revisits the progress of energy transitions across the globe, as growing global energy demand and regional geopolitics are making transitions more complex. We also spend time highlighting the technological innovations at work, along with review how to invest in these energy transitions. Featured is Jay Dobson, Energy & Utilities Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week on the Viewpoints podcast, Burkhard returns following a late-summer hiatus to bring us up to speed on how the global market and macro landscapes have evolved over the past month, and what to look out for in the months ahead. We also spend time discussing how investors should factor politics into investment decision making, along with take reading on the health of economies across the globe.

The market consequences of the US presidential debate rested on whether it changed probabilities around the election, and whether more substantial policy insights were offered. On the former, betting markets and the media suggest US Vice President Harris “won”—although debate victory does not always translate into electoral victory. On the latter, this was a debate of social media memes more than in-depth policy analysis.

Hear insights from David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities, CIO Americas, and Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and Municipal Securities, CIO Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

The only scheduled US presidential debate is after US markets have closed today. This is near enough to the election for investors to care. Investors’ focus is whether the debate influences election probabilities, and if the candidates offer new policy insights.

The Snapshot is back in session with a busy stretch of weeks ahead - Jason reflects on the current state of the US economy and recent market performance, along with previews upcoming inflation data, and next week’s FOMC meeting. We also touch on the prospects for a recession in the US, along with review CIO’s current positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US has more people employed, working longer hours, for more pay. Last Friday’s employment report essentially summarized a soft economic landing. There was evidence of slower hiring (without firing) in the employment details, also consistent with a soft landing. While the Federal Reserve is late in cutting rates, the delay has not yet done much economic damage.

The latest employment report is in - Brian stops by to provide thoughts around the health of the US labor market, and what this latest data means for the potential timing and extent of Fed rate cuts in the weeks ahead. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Just one month ago, markets were panicked by the release of an unreliable labor market signal, distorted by seasonal peculiarities. Now, once again, it is time for the US employment report. The unreliability adds unpredictability to the numbers, but the expectation is for a lower unemployment rate as temporarily unemployed auto-sector workers return to work.

The Washington Post reports that US President Biden will prevent Japan’s Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel, citing national security grounds. There will probably be a legal challenge to this, as national security might be hard to justify. Economic nationalism, however, is not just about trade in goods—it also often covers capital flows. Interestingly, economic nationalism goes both ways on capital flows: “how dare foreigners buy our assets?” for inflows; and “why are you not investing at home?” for outflows.

As Congress returns from summer recess, and the race for the White House heats up, Shane drops by to outline legislative priorities over the next few weeks, along with updates as to where polling for the White House and key Congressional races currently stands. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Equity markets had one of their funny turns yesterday. Some commentators, searching for scapegoats, want to blame the US ISM manufacturing sentiment poll. This seems unfair, as the ISM sentiment poll does not know what it is doing. Despite sentiment signaling five months of contraction, US manufacturing output is above where it was at the start of the year.

As Election Day in the US quickly approaches, Alejo stops by the studio to outline the implications of different outcome scenarios to emerging market assets. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Following Canada’s decision to dramatically tax Canadian consumers of electric vehicles made in China, China has launched anti-dumping investigations into Canadian exports. “Dumping” is the deliberate sale of exports at below market price. It is not a common occurrence, but it is a convenient way of pursuing economic nationalism (per US and EU accusations of dumping against China).

In Germany, the far-right AfD won the largest share of the vote in Thuringia’s state elections. That and high support levels for the AfD and the far-left BSW in eastern Germany remind investors that prejudice politics is widespread and persistent. Industrial revolutions create insecurity about jobs, income, and social status. The causes are complex, but people crave simplicity. Blaming a scapegoat (scapegoat economics) offers simplicity, and encourages prejudice politics.

Disinflation data continues today. The US July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any US household (as OER is a fiction).

In this global CIO livestream, Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and his colleagues from around the world will delve into the recent market volatility and subsequent corrections. They discuss the implications of these changes and share their investment outlook for the months ahead.

The cycle of European consumer price inflation data is about to start again (in reality, this is pretty much a perpetual cycle). The Spanish and German preliminary August numbers are due today. Both are expected to show a fairly sizable decline. That means, of course, that real interest rates are rising. The ECB should continue to chase inflation down, not to offer policy stimulus but to maintain policy stability.

There is little macroeconomic data today. Asian markets have been moved by corporate news, with micro evidence of additional weakness from China’s consumers. At a time of structural change, the assumptions behind macroeconomic data can become further and further removed from reality. Corporate data should be more precise, but listed companies are relatively unimportant in most economies.

We weigh in on the state of the race and investment implications following the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Featured are Tom McLoughlin, Co-lead of ElectionWatch, CIO Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist, CIO Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

The rise of economic nationalism has encouraged a rise in accusations of export “dumping” (selling at a loss in foreign markets)—and China has been specifically accused of this. China’s official industrial profit growth data, if accurate, argues against general export dumping. Profits growth accelerated in July, and with domestic demand lackluster some of this must be due to exports. Accelerating profit growth is not compatible with dumping.

As we begin a new trading week, investors do so with further clarity around the course for monetary policy, namely the prospects for rate cuts in the months ahead. Jason will spend some time reflecting on last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, along with outline the updated allocation preferences per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke to the Japanese Diet, and was inclined to be somewhat hawkish. There was an acknowledgement of the instability of financial markets, which is hardly surprising in the wake of recent volatility—including suggestions that BoJ action may have contributed to it. The yen strengthened modestly in the aftermath.

The Federal Reserve minutes make it clear that rate cuts are coming (some wanted to cut in July). The Fed is late, and is now going to have to scramble after the decline in inflation, in an undignified manner. Policy operates with a lag, so the economic benefit of these cuts will take some time to come through (policy lags are why “data dependency” is so dangerous). The Jackson Hole summer camp for central bankers gets underway, and between marshmallow roasting and campfire songs there is a chance for some interest economic papers.

The US will be revising last year’s non-farm payrolls data. Markets have a heightened interest in the labor market, and these revisions are likely to be negative. However, this does not change anything about the economy. Making payrolls marginally less inaccurate is about spin, not substance. Consumers have been spending this year based on the labor market they experience, not the labour market that was reported.

Tune in monthly to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. We hear candidly from them on their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

US politicians are politicking. At the margin, Vice President Harris’s endorsement of the proposed increase in US corporate tax rates might seem to be market relevant. However, listed companies are not always that sensitive to headline corporate tax rates. Otherwise, this is still mainly political theater (obviously, were Taylor Swift to do an impromptu concert in Chicago, the theater would become serious).

Jason explains why financial markets have become more prone to rollercoaster swings that result in positive momentum and sharp reversals. We also preview this week’s Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, and what markets will be looking for in Fed Chair Powell’s speech, along with review CIO’s current guidance when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The data calendar today is so quiet even ECB President Lagarde does not appear to be speaking. The lack of economic data to guide investors might be troubling—but recent market swings were not based on rational economic analysis.

We close out another trading week by recapping some notable economic data releases that could influence the Fed’s decision on rate cuts for the September FOMC meeting, and through year-end. We also preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US middle-income consumer is doing just fine, with yesterday’s retail sales data showing little fear of unemployment and a willingness to indulge in the national pastime of spending money. Today’s Michigan consumer sentiment data will tell us about the extraordinary degree of US political partisanship, not about what consumers are feeling.

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets.

US July consumer price inflation data continued recent trends. Most sectors of the US economy have deflation somewhere (furniture prices seem to be plunging in California. Clothing prices are falling in New York). Fictional prices for housing are propping up the inflation data—which means middle income homeowners have more spending power than consumer price numbers imply.

The publication of US consumer price inflation forces economists to become used car salespeople and real estate fantasists. Part of the disinflationary trends come from used cars (which most US households will not buy this year) and the fictional owners’ equivalent rent (which no one pays). Disinflation in these categories does not improve the spending power of most consumers.

US July producer price data are due. Producer prices better represent corporate pricing power than consumer prices. (Consumer prices are a combination of the pricing power of retailers, and the power of imagination in devising owners’ equivalent rent.) This means the real fed funds rate is around 3% for companies—an unnecessarily restrictive rate.

Jason explains last week’s market evolution, and what this week might deliver for the markets as we anticipate key economic readings on consumer spending trends and the inflationary environment. Jason also outlines CIO’s medium-term market outlook, and views when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

At the risk of tempting fate, financial markets seem to have got the past week’s hysteria out of their systems and are prepared to go back to looking to economists for guidance. Unfortunately, there is relatively little economic news today—although inflation data is likely to be significant this week.

As we close out another trading week, Matt recaps the drivers behind the volatile swings within US equity markets over the past four sessions, along with updates on the Q2 corporate earnings season. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

China’s July consumer price inflation rose a little more than expected, but this was not a signal of better demand. Excluding food prices inflation moderated, suggesting broader demand remains anemic. Food price inflation was supported by supply constraints for fresh vegetables and pork, and this sort of inflation signals potential damage to consumer spending rather than being a response to better demand.

Following a period of volatility across Asian equity markets, notably Japan, and within the technology sector, Xingchen stops by the studio to explain the drivers, share an outlook, along with guidance when it comes to positioning within the region. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the wake of the recent episode of global market volatility, Jeffrey rejoins Jason on the podcast to exchange views on the volatility drivers, an outlook for the markets, the health of the US economy, and the direction of monetary policy. Plus, we spend time sharing thoughts when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager with DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is an eerie calm over the economic calendar. Weekly US initial jobless claims data may get more attention than normal. This is not survey evidence (people have to do something to make a claim), but it is also not comprehensive as unemployed new entrants to the workforce are not captured. The state breakdown may offer some helpful insights into the effects of Hurricane Beryl on Texas (and through that, national employment data).

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Alex Obaza, Portfolio Manager, T.Rowe Price. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Bank of Japan Governor Uchida indicated that there would be a pause in interest rate hikes in the wake of the strong financial market reactions. Central banks are not supposed to create disorderly markets, so this is not necessarily surprising (the last rate hike will not be reversed). The political pressure on the BoJ to raise rates was not properly backed by economic fundamentals—there is a lesson there for all central banks.

Following a tumultuous start to the week for US equity markets, Jason stops by the studio to reflect on today’s rebound rally and what the days and weeks ahead might have in store for investors. Plus, considerations when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer, CIO Americas, hosts Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy to discuss the market selloff, our outlook going forward, and how to position.

The Japanese equity market is behaving with all the decorum and rationality of someone dancing the Hokey Cokey at a family wedding at two in the morning. Economic fundamentals are not driving equity prices—no economic data justified yesterday’s 12% plunge, nor today’s 10% rally.

As volatility across asset classes continues, Jason breaks down the drivers behind the market moves, explains CIO’s current investment outlook, and shares guidance for positioning during these volatile conditions. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve has been late in cutting rates, but that has been true for some time. The policy error is making things worse for lower income households. Middle income households are the critical group for economic activity, and are less negatively affected by the delay in rate cuts. Last Friday’s employment report (seemingly weather impacted) does not change that; indeed, unemployment for college graduates declined.

As we close out another trading week, Brian shares his thoughts on the latest jobs report, along with the health of the US labor market. We also spend time reflecting on this week’s FOMC meeting, and what the outcome suggests about prospects for a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

On this week’s episode we examine President Biden’s proposed reforms from the US Supreme Court, along with an initiative from the White House the curb the flow of fentanyl into the US. We also spend time on the regional implications of recent escalations related to the Israel-Hamas War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US employment report for July is due. Like Orwellian newspeak, this can often mean the reverse of what it says it means. The household and establishment surveys portray contrasting pictures of employment (and both have shocking response rates). Immigration, self-employment, automation, and switching to higher quality jobs all play a role in messing with the data.

The Bank of England’s rate decision is due. Unlike some other central banks, the BoE has a tradition of dissent and disagreement. Arguably this produces better quality decisions (that is only true if the BoE agrees with my view and cuts rates). Disinflation forces argue that the bank should lower rates to prevent unnecessary real policy tightening, which would be a relief for the minority of households with a mortgage.

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on the outcome of the July FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We outline considerations when it comes to how to address company stock within a financial plan, including a review of risks, and guidance on how to navigate behavioral bias. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Katie Williams, Discovery Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office.

Solita Marcelli is first joined by John Savercool, Head of the US Office of Public Policy, to discuss President Biden’s decision to drop out, and the impact on the race and investments.

The Federal Reserve is not expected to end its policy error today, but hopefully a rate cut will be signaled for September. Monetary policy has progressively tightened since the start of last year. For savers, slowing price inflation has increased real interest rates. For borrowers, slowing household income growth has increased real interest rates. The pressure of real policy has become ever more onerous as the economy has slowed.

We spotlight the latest edition of the quarterly UBS CEO Macro Briefing book as we explore how a shifting macro environment and unprecedented election cycle has impacted the outlook for business owners. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This month’s episode focuses on the reasons for and benefits of investing in people, along with the opportunities and challenges that exist within this ever-evolving landscape. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jennifer Anderson, Head of ESG with Lazard Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Germany and Spain offer July inflation data. German data is expected to be stable. That puts it within a reasonable range around the ECB’s 2% target. Spanish data is expected to slow, though somewhat further away from the target level. However, the extent of disinflation recently is truly remarkable—German inflation has fallen over nine percentage points in less than two years, and Spanish inflation has fallen over seven percentage points.

Jason explains the factors that have been behind the notable market rotations over the past month, and for how much longer these moves may continue. We also preview a busy week ahead of Q2 earnings reports and macro data, including the July Jobs Report. Plus, provide thoughts around portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets care about politics when policy probabilities change. So far, the US political circus has not changed many probabilities. The polling position of US Vice-President Harris has improved, but sentiment surveys (as low quality indicators of markets) are not significantly shifting probabilities. The prospect of an announcement about the Democrats’ vice-presidential nominee might matter. Vice-presidential nominees rarely change things much, but they can hint at policy direction—which investors care about.

Solita Marcelli is first joined by John Savercool, Head of the US Office of Public Policy, to discuss President Biden’s decision to drop out, and the impact on the race and investments. This is followed by a conversation with Justin Muzinich, CEO, Muzinich & Co., and former Deputy Secretary, US Department of the Treasury under former President Trump, discussing the Trump policy agenda and the economic implications coming out of the RNC.

As we close out another trading week, Danny Kessler drops by to reflect on this week’s abundance of Q2 corporate earnings results, notable economic data releases, plus previews what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Yesterday’s second quarter US GDP release showed the US consumer is alive and well, and spending money. Some of the GDP data reflected a bounce back from the first quarter. Today’s personal income, consumption, and deflator data offers more insight into the direction of travel. It would be unwise to bet against reasonable US consumption, with middle-income households still relatively well supported.

In the wake of Sunday’s announcement from President Biden, Shane outlines what comes next for the Democratic Party and the 2024 election cycle, including what the ticket could look like in the weeks ahead, and the role President Biden will play on the campaign trail. We also examine how the GOP has been responding to the events of the past week, and recap Monday’s Congressional testimony involving former US Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Jason Thomas rejoins Jason Draho for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at The Carlyle Group. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Equity markets exhibited some volatility yesterday. This is not the fault of economists (there was no news of any economic note). The nature of the moves are unlikely to offer any economic signals either.

The US Dollar has been the undisputed global reserve currency for decades, though can this standing sustain? Alejo joins to weigh in on this pressing question, along with shares thoughts on alternative currencies and commodities that can thrive in a more diversified global currency environment. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Assorted business sentiment opinion polls are published, in an otherwise quiet data calendar. This, unfortunately, means that the surveys will get more attention than they deserve because talking heads have little else to talk about. Political polarization and biases in news cycles have depressed sentiment, which has tended to underperform economic reality.

Join Kiran Ganesh, Global Head of Investment Communications, Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income & Municipal Securities, Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist, & Constantin Bolz, FX Strategist.

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets.

Tune in monthly to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. We hear candidly from them on their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

There is almost nothing happening on the economic data calendar today—things are so quiet even ECB President Lagarde and former US Treasury Secretary Summers are not speaking. As markets abhor a vacuum, there is a danger that idle investors may start listening to politicians.

A look at the performance of fixed income sub-sectors, along with a review of positioning recommendations. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Alina Golant, Sudip Mukherjee, Barry McAlinden, and Frank Sileo.

Following Sunday’s development of President Biden withdrawing from the 2024 race for the White House, Jason speaks to the implications to the markets, and to CIO’s investment outlook. Jason also touches on the recent ‘rotation trade’ and explains why the trade is unlikely to persist and is actually likely to reverse. Plus, a look at the current positioning recommendations from CIO per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The decision of the People’s Bank of China to cut rates by 0.1 percentage point was perhaps inevitable—even on official data, the domestic economy is lethargic. Does a small change in borrowing costs really alter anything? Arguably, China is not constrained by the cost of credit. This is a signal of policymakers’ concerns over economic growth, and perhaps represents a downpayment on future action.

After an eventful week in Milwaukee Wisconsin, Shane recaps the RNC events and speeches. We also spend time discussing what comes next in the investigation into the assassination attempt of former President Trump. Plus, thoughts on the conviction of NJ Senator Bob Menendez. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the first week of Q2 corporate earnings now behind us, we reflect on how the initial round of reporting is coming in. We also spend some time reviewing this week’s economic data releases, including Retail Sales, and the Fed’s Beige Book. Plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

UK June retail sales were soggy, coming in below consensus (although not that many economists bother to forecast these numbers, so “consensus” is not necessarily that reliable). The weather was bad in June—there was also a rather unexpected general election campaign, but politics is not really a reason to stop shopping.

As growth and inflation trend lower, coupled with the next rate cutting cycle on the horizon, we discuss how fixed income investors should position accordingly, along with what to expect across fixed income markets in the months ahead. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Two Federal Reserve speakers signalled that interest rate cuts are coming (the tone is consistent with a September rate cut). The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of economic anecdotes strongly suggests that profit-led inflation is in full retreat (retailers are discounting to buy back customer loyalty, and customer price sensitivity is high). Growth and employment also appear to be moderating. The ECB meets today, giving Lagarde an opportunity to speak—no rate cut is expected now, but the quarter-point-a-quarter rhythm is looked for.

UK June inflation was broadly as expected, and on target. However, the popular music artist Taylor Swift had several UK concerts in June. Swifties need some place to stay. Hotel price increases were a very sizable part of June inflation. BoE Governor Bailey should ignore this effect (whether or not the governor is a Swiftie). Goods prices, and in particular durable goods prices, remain firmly in deflation. Producer price inflation was weaker than expected.

Former US President Trump’s selection of Senator Vance as his running mate is not immediately market moving but it is market relevant. In a television interview, Vance identified China as the US’s greatest threat. Markets have been inclined to think that Trump would not really tax US consumers who buy goods partially made overseas as aggressively as they threaten—but the rhetoric suggests tariff threats may be serious.

Jason rejoins the podcast to share his take on recent economic data and what it means for the timing of Fed rate cuts in the months ahead. We also spend time discussing current investor sentiment, along with equity valuations, Q2 earnings, and the political landscape. Plus, what this all means for your portfolio, and how to think about positioning accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The shooting at former US President Trump’s election rally during the weekend has provoked only a limited market reaction. Markets are concerned about policy probabilities, and while individuals may condemn acts of violence against political candidates, they will not necessarily change their policy projections. There is a popular perception that acts of violence against a candidate increase their support, but this is not necessarily true. Analysis is complicated by US polarization, and shorter news cycles from social media. This adds to uncertainty without necessarily changing policy probabilities.

We close out the week by sharing expectations for Q2 corporate earnings reporting, along with thoughts around equity valuations and positioning. We also touch on this week’s inflation data, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US consumer price inflation details continue to suggest that US rate cuts are overdue. Harmonized inflation slowed again (to 1.85% y/y). Durable goods prices are falling at the most aggressive rate in two decades. Most sectors experience deflation somewhere in the US. Investors should remember that the slowing of the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent has no direct effect on consumer spending power.

With the Republican National Convention set to commence, we preview the themes that will be covered, along with a look at potential VP picks. We also take a pulse on swing state polling in the aftermath of the first Presidential debate, and touch on calls for President Biden to step down from the ticket. Plus, thoughts on this week’s NATO Summit in Washington DC. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Join members of the UBS Chief Investment Office for some timely thoughts and reflections around the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and what this latest inflation data might mean for monetary policy, and the markets. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week on the Viewpoints podcast, Burkhard spends time reviewing performance trends across global markets, and what they tell us about investor sentiment. We also touch on the outcomes of the recent snap elections within France and the United Kingdom. Plus, on the lighter side, share a summer reading recommendation now that summer holiday season is in full swing.

We have US June consumer price inflation data. Federal Reserve Chair Powell thinks this matters, because politicians think this matters, and Powell thinks politicians are important. Economists, who are actually important, tend to regard headline US consumer price data as a rather poor quality statistic.

As we have made our way into the second-half of the year, Xingchen drops by to reflect on Emerging Market equities performance drivers over the first-half, and shares expectations for performance in the months ahead. We also review the current opportunity-set for Emerging Market equities, and some developments within the asset class to be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Perhaps Federal Reserve Chair Powell has opened an economics book (possibly “How the world really works—the economy”). Powell told the Senate banking committee that cutting rates too early would be bad, but cutting rates too late would also be bad. Unfortunately, the Fed Chair insisted that more “good data” was required to induce a rate cut. With inflation down over eight percentage points in less than two years, real rates soaring, and deflation peppering sectors of the US, it is starting to look like rate cuts are too late.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is testifying to the Senate Banking Committee today. The issue is whether Powell (who is not an economist) will be able to answer any perceptive questions that might be asked. If US inflation is lower than in Europe, why is the Fed not cutting rates? Why emphasize data dependency when data is unreliable and policy works with a lag?

In the wake of the June Jobs Report, we take a pulse on the state of the US Labor Market and how the Fed might be interpreting the latest round of data. We also review expectations for monetary policy in the coming months, along with the current asset allocation recommendations from CIO. Featured is Brian Rose, CIO Senior Economist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On the mid-year outlook edition, we spend time reflecting on the drivers of fixed income performance over the first-half of the year, and outline expectations for the second-half, including for rates and monetary policy. We also spend time sharing views when it comes to positioning within fixed income. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ashok Bhatia, Co-Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income with Neuberger Berman. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Tune in for to hear commentary on the first debate between President Biden and former President Trump. How might the debate impact the election in November and your investments?

France’s second-round legislative election produced an unexpected result, with the far right Rassemblement National pushed into third place. This highlights again a market problem—politics is becoming more important to markets, but opinion polls are less reliable as a guide to outcomes. Polarization means financial institutions try to strike a neutral tone—“opinion polls suggest” rather than “we believe that”, but if polls are less reliable market mispricing is more common.

The UK general election result is now clear (for the benefit of US readers, many countries are able to get a definitive result within hours of voting having concluded). The result was entirely as expected by markets, with the Labour Party winning a sizable majority. Former Prime Minister Truss (who presided over the Truss debacle in markets) lost her seat.

US markets are closed as the country celebrates its attempt to escape rule by a monarch. There has been media speculation about US President Biden’s candidacy for re-election. Markets are not likely to react to such speculation at this stage. Politically, markets primarily focus on the probabilities of economic policy change.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell said yesterday that the strength of the US economy and labor market meant the Fed could take its time in cutting rates. This is a rather risky point of view. US inflation has collapsed more than eight percentage points, and the harmonized measure is below 2%. Taking time means tightening policy further. Can the US economy withstand more tightening?

The British Retail Consortium shop price index (measuring prices in selected stores in the UK) sank to a 0.2% y/y rate. Is this the end of profit-led inflation? Profit-led inflation occurs when retailers use a dominant narrative to disguise profit increases when raising prices. However, at some point, price increases become the dominant narrative and consumer rebellion defeats margin expansion.

The first round of the French elections produced results broadly in line with opinion polls (as to the popular vote). An unusually large number of second-round votes could be three-way contests. That makes the final outcome harder to predict. In the past, there has been a “front républicain” with third-placed moderate candidates withdrawing to increase the chances of defeating a more extreme party (in this election, the Rassemblement National). It is not clear how many constituencies will follow such a strategy.

Polls immediately after the US presidential debate declared former President Trump the winner. While incumbents often “lose” debates, US President Biden reportedly lost by a large margin. This invites increased investor scrutiny of Trump’s policies, especially around trade. The economic consequences of tariffs are relatively obvious, but there is uncertainty about how many campaign pledges will translate into policy action.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard spends time reviewing an abundance of global election-related developments, including thoughts around Thursday’s US Presidential debate, along with upcoming snap elections in both the UK and France. Burkhard explains the impact of these developments to markets, along with offers guidance as to how investors should navigate through election-induced market volatility.

For this week, Shane previews the highly anticipated debate between President Biden, and former-President Trump, including a review of the rules and conditions. We also spend time reviewing likely areas of focus and the issues on the minds of the American voter. Plus, examine what the latest national and swing-state polling is pointing to. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation revisits the emerging markets as we discuss how the asset class has evolved in recent years, performance expectations for the asset class through year-end, and considerations when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Officer. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US first quarter GDP is revised, and will keep being revised; we will not have a clear picture of current GDP performance for five years or more. Markets will pay some attention to prices from the personal consumer expenditure deflator, but May data is due tomorrow. Politicians use GDP as a weapon or a rallying cry, but GDP is so far from real world living standards that voters do not care whether growth is reported as 1.4% or 1.3%.

Our conversation revisits the possibility of a ‘Roaring 20s’-style economy to take shape in the US, as we review the updated assessment of such a scenario from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

There are several ECB speakers on the agenda today. One speaker, Rehn, has already suggested that two further rate cuts are a reasonable estimate for ECB action this year. This is in line with most economists’ views.

Our conversation today focuses on the current election cycle as it relates to the potential impacts of political bias when it comes to financial decision making, and how to navigate accordingly. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team.

Jay Dobson is joined by Dave Intoppa for an in-depth conversation about where we are in the energy transition story, including a look at technological innovations, investment considerations, and what to expect in the years (and decades) ahead. Featured are Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist Americas, with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dave Intoppa, Portfolio Manager, at Newton Investment Management (BNY Investments). Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the absence of interesting data, markets focus on less important things, like politics. France has a political debate between current Prime Minister Attal, Rassemblement National president Bardella, and Nouveau Front Populaire leader Bompard. Presumably they will promise voters everything that they desire, without explaining how it will be paid for. Some plans are estimated to cost two Trusses (4% of GDP of unfunded commitments). The reality of government is likely to moderate such plans.

In a special session from Singapore, Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele is joined by Min Lan Tan, Head CIO of APAC, Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, and Sundeep Gantori, Equity Strategist, to discuss our outlook for the second half of the year and provide recommendations for investors.

This week, Jason outlines the events that are set to take place that will not only determine the investment landscape through year-end, though also shape expectations for 2025. We also review the current asset allocation recommendations from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

For this month we focus on the 2024 proxy season, including a review of expectations, a look at some notable trends and themes, along with comparisons to what 2023 delivered. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Amy O’Brien, Global Head of Responsible Investing with Nuveen. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week has a lot of politics in it, and markets are rarely that good at pricing political risk. The US presidential debate may make investors pay attention to political risk earlier than is normal in the US political cycle. Because so much attention has focused on the suitability of the candidates for office (rather than their policy positions), this debate might actually matter.

This week we follow-up on rulings issued by the Supreme Court, including US tax on foreign business income. Shane also provides some takeaways from the recent G7 Summit, and touches on this year’s focuses and themes. Plus, some background on the Russia-North Korea military pact and the global implications. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s central bank decisions support the trend of following inflation lower. The Swiss rate cut reflected a desire to stabilize real rates, not stimulate the economy. Bank of England Governor Bailey linked future rate cuts to lower inflation; an August rate cut looks increasingly likely. Only the Federal Reserve seems to have forgotten that rising real rates are repressive.

With the halfway point of 2024 having arrived, we reflect on how market and macro conditions have evolved thus far, and share expectations for the balance of the year. Plus, we outline positioning recommendations across equities, fixed income, and alternatives. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

The Bank of England offers some excitement as investors await the start of the UK interest rate easing cycle. That start is probably not today, but should be soon. The BoE relishes dissent and discussion to help form higher quality decisions (the Federal Reserve might like to take note), making policy outcomes less predictable. With consumer price inflation down nine percentage points from the recent highs, the case for lowering real interest rates is strong—but the BoE might want a couple more data points before acting.

May UK inflation data was as expected across the multiple measures released today. Headline consumer price inflation was 2%. The decline in inflation has almost nothing to do with government policy, and not that much to do with the Bank of England—a lot of this is the natural slowing of temporary inflation drivers. Durable goods prices sank further into deflation.

Eurozone final May consumer price inflation is very unlikely to change from the initial report. At 2.6% y/y, the rate is above the ECB’s target, but rate cuts are still justified. Inflation has fallen eight percentage points from its high. The impact of that on real interest rates is significant.

This week Jason ‘connects the dots’ to make sense of market performance, this in the wake of last week’s inflation data, along with the outcome of the June FOMC meeting. We also consider emerging geopolitical risks, and upcoming macro factors. Plus, share CIO’s current investment outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s May data dump showed weaker-than-expected industrial production, despite earlier reports of stronger exports. Domestic retail sales were stronger, slightly distorted by the timing of holidays. Restaurant sales were stronger, as people seem inclined to spend on having fun.

Yesterday’s US producer price inflation numbers added to a general sense of disinflation. However, the lower inflation reported in consumer and producer prices will not be fully experienced by consumers. The slowing fantasy price of owners’ equivalent rent does not affect real world spending power. Seasonal adjustments deliberately distort reality, and so disinflation here does not change consumers’ inflation experiences.

This week Shane highlights a slate of rulings expected to be delivered in June by the Supreme Court, updates on the campaign trail (including recent and upcoming primaries), reflects on former President Trump’s visit to Capitol Hill - plus, recaps the annual Congressional baseball game! Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard covers a range of topics, including a potential timeline for higher for longer rates in the US, the gathering of world leaders at the G7 Summit, how the law of acceleration will change the world and economies over the next decade, and more.

The Federal Reserve did nothing on rates. Investors have desperately sought additional guidance on policy, putting the fabled dot plots in focus. These black smudges on a piece of paper are really not that helpful. More Fed members think that there will be two cuts this year than anything else. Given the disinflation forces in the economy, several of those who suggested one cut likely give a high probability to two cuts.

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on May inflation data, along with the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Economists are overstimulated by the US today. We have the excitement of US consumer price inflation. We have the excitement of a Federal Reserve policy decision. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference can be relied upon to dampen economists’ passions. The Fed is unlikely to change policy. The fabled dot plots of policy projections will add confusion (a black mark on a chart gives no sense of confidence or risk).

As mid-year approaches, we take time to reflect on fixed income performance drivers over 1H24, along with preview performance expectations for the balance of the year. We also outline expectations for monetary policy and rates, along with review positioning recommendations across fixed income. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtagh, Fixed Income Analyst Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets dislike any increase in uncertainty. Politics in Europe was judged to have increased uncertainty, and markets responded accordingly. It is the change in uncertainty that matters. The outcomes of the thousands of US elections held this November are also a source of considerable uncertainty, but, perceptions of that level of uncertainty are not changing very much.

With growth fears last week having eased, investor confidence in a soft-landing having been reinforced, and the S&P 500 having hit an all-time-high, Jason explains why the story is likely to continue this week with the May inflation data and the FOMC meeting. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In any society experiencing a period of economic upheaval, some people do better while others do worse. The causes are complex, but those suffering want a simple explanation. This encourages scapegoat economics—blaming economic problems on a minority group. Scapegoat economics encourages prejudice politics, where politicians promise everything will be OK if that group can only be excluded. This helps explain the extremists’ success in the European elections.

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas.

As we close out another trading week, Brian Rose recaps the May employment data and provides a health check on the US labor market. We also preview next week’s FOMC meeting, along with some other points of interest on the US data calendar. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As expected, the ECB offered a 0.25-percentage-point rate cut, with general vagueness about the future. The rationale was also as expected—interest rates are following inflation lower. Applying the ECB’s logic to the likely path of the economy, another couple of rate cuts seem likely this year, but Lagarde was not prepared to signal that strongly at yesterday’s press conference.

This week Shane reflects on the 80th anniversary of D-day, recap’s Dr. Anthony Fauci’s Congressional testimony, updates on the latest executive action directed at the US Southern border, along with developments surrounding the Israel-Hamas War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the wake of Mexico’s election outcome earlier this week, Gaby outlines the results, weighs in on the market response, and shares the investment implications to be mindful of. Featured is Gaby Soni, Head of Investment Strategy Mexico, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is a strong consensus about today’s ECB policy rate decision. A total of 53 out of 55 surveyed economists expect a 0.25% rate cut, and ECB Chief Economist Lane has practically promised an easing (chief economists are, of course, never wrong). The idea this year has been that most major central banks would follow inflation lower. Eurozone inflation is lower. Rate cuts are not stimulatory, but stabilizing (keeping the real interest rate steady).

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard explains the underestimated importance of the upcoming European elections, football championships, and the Olympics, along with what investors can learn from professional athletes, coaches, and teams.

Japan published some labor market data, with April cash earnings. On a like-for-like comparison, these were somewhat weaker than expected (and they remain negative in real terms). There are two points worth bearing in mind. An increasing share of Japanese consumers do not depend on earnings to finance consumption, because of population aging. And more of the Japanese economy has been supported by foreign consumers as tourists.

Paula joins Jason in-studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Paula Campbell Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist for Global Wealth, KKR, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US provides the main data releases. JOLTS data on job vacancies is expected to continue to decline. The initial surge in vacancies in 2021 was strongly influenced by labor market churn. As that subsided, vacancy rates fell. Nominal wage growth continues to slow, which argues against a tight labor market.

To begin the week (and a new month), Jason reflects on May market performance drivers, and outlines what investors should be mindful of throughout the month of June, and into the summer season. We also take a pulse on current investor sentiment, and review the current allocation recommendations per the June UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve President Kashkari has advocated a significant tightening of central bank policy, by raising real interest rates (keeping nominal rates stable as inflation slows). The pain of this would likely hit lower income groups disproportionately. Kashkari’s wants to keep inflation expectations anchored—yet inflation expectations are properly observed through consumers’ actions (certainly not through surveys). Moderating wage growth suggests well-anchored expectations.

Markets and life are full of conundrums. This week, our Viewpoints podcast addresses at least three current ones. Some of them have unexpected resolutions, related to the surprising roles and impact of cheating, free-riding, bond-yields, the sometimes-infectious nature of mood-swings and time’s canny ability to heal many wounds.

We get fresh evidence on the hedonism of the US consumer, with personal income and spending numbers. The personal consumer expenditure deflator will be the markets’ focus. This is less influenced by the nonsense of owners’ equivalent rent than is consumer price data. There are other notable differences (like motor insurance). Overall, the inflation data is expected to stay steady.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

Yesterday equities were a little upset because bonds were a little upset because of weaker demand at a US bond auction. Should investors be upset? This is not a US version of the UK’s Truss debacle. Markets are not disorderly and government policies are not destabilizing. The absolute level of debt is not a concern—many countries (including the US) have had and do have higher debt ratios. The political polarization that prevents a policy for a sustainable deficit is a concern, but is probably more a background worry for now.

We explore the behavior of action bias, including a look at when it might and might not makes sense for one to adjust their investment approach, along with strategies to consider that can protect against the behavior of action bias. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Katie Williams, Discovery Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, along with Mark Halloran, Head of Business Development for Individual Markets with Transamerica. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The entertainment from the US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey comments did not disappoint. Several would be met with a disparaging “OK, boomer” if only the TikTok generation read the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Today’s anecdotes come in the form of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. These comments are indirect quotes, and sanitization reduces entertainment value. Remarks on prices and pricing power are still likely to be investors’ focus.

Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and colleagues from around the world discuss the state of play in global markets and recommendations for investors.

Today we spotlight the May edition of the monthly Sustainable Investing Perspectives publication. Among the topics featured within, Amantia highlights global plastic reduction efforts, including the role companies are playing, along with the potential investment considerations from these efforts that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK’s May shop price index showed ongoing non-food deflation, and a slower pace of food price increases as the profit-led inflation episode wanes. Supermarkets’ dual pricing structure (offering preferential discounts to loyalty card holders) seems to be ending. Shop price data includes the discounts, consumer price data does not—and the gap between the two has disappeared.

ECB Chief Economist Lane stated the central bank is ready to cut rates. We have heard this from other ECB governing council members, but Lane’s remarks come with the added authority and insight that only a chief economist can bring. Europe has (on a like-for-like basis) the same inflation as the US or the UK, and the ECB is not known for the speed of its decision-making. That the ECB looks to be first to cut rates may be due to the narrative around European growth, rather than the substance of economic data.

Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas of UBS, along with Jeffery Gundlach CEO of DoubleLine, share valuable insights and perspectives on the current investment landscape.

Japan’s April consumer price inflation was a little dull—the inflation rate slowed more or less as expected, as food prices offered disinflation. Some sources of inflation are probably not domestic in origin—although the rate has moderated, hotel price inflation remains close to 20% y/y. Very strong foreign tourist numbers helped push up those prices.

US President Clinton’s admonition “It’s the economy, stupid” puts economists in their proper (superior) place. But which economy? Economists get excited about inflation, but voters think in terms of price levels—a higher price level can be considered unfair even as inflation falls. GDP is too abstract for voters, who do not care whether “growth” is -0.1% or +0.1%. Economic perceptions (honest perceptions, not sentiment surveys) drive politics.

With US equity indices having recently reached record levels, many investors are wondering how long this momentum can continue (and what might disrupt it). Burkhard outlines CIO’s view on equity returns, along with breaks down the anatomy of a bull market. Plus, we spend time on the implications of the bull market wealth effect to consumer behavior and economic activity.

European Central Bank President Lagarde did, after all, offer policy comments yesterday—in an Irish TV interview. Lagarde signaled a June Euro area rate cut is coming, because inflation is under control. Markets already expect this. Currently, US inflation is the same as that of Europe when measured on a like-for-like basis, so why is the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts?

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning, and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, and Frank Sileo, along with Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist, Sangeeta Marfatia, and Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

US Treasury Secretary Yellen receives an honorary doctorate today, which gives ECB President Lagarde an opportunity to speak in public. It would be poor taste to talk of policy on such an occasion. Of more interest is Yellen’s motive for visiting Europe—the G7 finance ministers’ meeting on Thursday. This may discuss using the income from frozen Russian assets (including central bank assets) to aid Ukraine. Markets may pay attention not just to the implications for Ukraine, but the implications around the security of asset ownership in a politically polarized world.

With US equity markets having reached all-time record closes, Jason weighs the ‘sell in May, and go away’ narrative, and discusses how investors should consider positioning in light of current market levels. We also reflect on the latest round of inflation data, as well as near-term market drivers. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Iranian President Raisi has been killed in a helicopter crash. The first vice president becomes interim president, and elections will be called within 50 days. No change is expected in Iran’s main policy positions as major policy decisions are overseen by Supreme Leader Khamenei. Over the longer term, market considerations will focus on the implications for Khamenei’s successor, and the potential for protests around the elections.

We preview the current calendar for US Presidential debates, unpack the FAA Bill and the implications for consumers, and share takeaways from Secretary of State Blinken’s recent visit to Ukraine. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China reported stronger industrial production and weaker domestic retail sales. If these figures are accurate, they present some risks to China’s policy-makers. Production strength seemed focused in politically-sensitive areas, including computing and autos.

Join members of the UBS Chief Investment Office for some timely thoughts and reflections around the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and what this latest inflation data might mean for monetary policy, and the markets. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US consumer price data was less weird—no 4% monthly increases in rent in Detroit (as in March). The detail showed for almost every business sector, there is deflation somewhere in the United States. For the benefit of non-economists (like the Chair of the Federal Reserve) this is not remotely consistent with sticky prices.

Following a brief Springtime hiatus, we catch-up with Burkhard to hear about his recent travels and the connections that can be drawn from the picturesque landscapes of Europe to the European economic landscape. Burkhard also shares takeaways from a recent conversation with IMF-Head Kristina Georgieva, where they discuss the ingredients for a successful economy (tune in to find out!).

Join members of the UBS Chief Investment Office for some timely thoughts and reflections around the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and what this latest inflation data might mean for monetary policy, and the markets. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell wants further inflation declines before the Fed cuts rates. US inflation is already at or near target for the prices over which the Fed has control. Last month’s consumer price inflation did surprise to the upside, mainly because of rents in the city of Detroit.

We catch-up with Leslie Falconio to discuss how a shift in the Fed’s course for monetary policy has impacted fixed income assets, along with review CIO’s expectations for rate cuts in 2024, along with current positioning recommendations within fixed income. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Following a sharp rebound in Chinese equities, Xingchen weighs in as to how investors should treat their Chinese equity exposure, along with cites some near-term market catalysts that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Germany and Spain are offering final consumer price inflation data for April today. Although a lot of data is Europe is revised, the initial estimates for consumer prices are rarely altered. The narrative is of Eurozone inflation within a reasonable range of the ECB’s target, and evident disinflation pressures.

Join us for a fireside chat that Mark Axelowitz, Managing Director and UBS Private Wealth Advisor and Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer for CIO Americas, hosted with Bill Ackman, Founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, and Ryan Israel, Chief Investment Officer at Pershing Square Capital Management.

We take inventory of recent market performance and drivers, along with consider the prospects for downside in the markets if certain near-term macro and micro factors disappoint investor expectations - including this week’s key April inflation prints. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of 3-Levels, Justin and Ainsley explain the differences between traditional accounts and Roth accounts, including considerations when it comes to contributions, frequency of account reviews, and taxes. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

More details are emerging about US President Biden’s imminent US consumer tax increases. Some of the tax changes are sizable, with suggestions that consumers of electric vehicles from China could be set at over 100%. Steel and aluminum consumers will also pay more to the US Treasury. However, the economic impact is likely to be muted. US President Trump’s taxes on intermediate goods generally squeezed US corporate profits more than they raised consumer prices, and the US is not a big consumer of electric vehicles from China.

Following a pause of arms shipments to Israel from the US, Shane outlines what the response has consisted of and what might come next. We also cover this week’s efforts to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson from his post, along with the testimonies on Capitol Hill surrounding antisemitism across US school campuses. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We revisit our conversation on the emerging markets and outline CIO’s current thinking when it comes to equity and fixed income positioning within the broader asset class. We also explore risk factors, spanning inflation to geopolitical concerns. Featured is Chi Amaechi, Emerging Markets Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Media reports suggest US President Biden plans to announce new taxes on US consumers of products from China, specifically, electric vehicles and solar products. These taxes are not as broad as the consumer taxes imposed by US President Trump, but they are reflective of the trends of scapegoat economics and prejudice politics. Economic nationalism is a specific manifestation of those trends.

Sweden’s Riksbank followed the Swiss National Bank’s leadership with an interest rate cut. The move was generally though not universally expected by financial markets. The press conference implied that lower inflation was driving interest rates lower, and that more rate cuts may be forthcoming later this year.

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Dan Scansaroli, Head of Portfolio Strategy & UBS Wealth Way Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist Americas.

Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to cut interest rates at its meeting today (this is a widespread but not a universal expectation). Swedish inflation is some way above 2%, but the trend has been for slower price increase. In cutting rates, the Riksbank would simply be following inflation lower (as with the earlier Swiss rate cut).

Eric rejoins the podcast to share his take on how current economic conditions and the rate environment have impacted consumer behavior and spending patterns. We also touch on how brands have been adapting or pivoting in order to maintain consumer engagement. Featured is Eric Clark, Portfolio Manager with Accuvest Global Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the Middle East, Hamas accepted a Qatari/Egyptian proposal for a ceasefire, but the Israeli government has rejected it. There are obvious humanitarian consequences from this, but little direct market impact. Over the longer term, there may be some wider political considerations as this is a polarizing issue in the US (and Republican and Democratic party conventions loom in July and August).

As we turn the page on a volatile month of April and look ahead to the summer, we consider whether the April FOMC meeting and Employment Report outcomes have hinted at the return of a ‘goldilocks’ environment? Jason explains, along with outlines positioning considerations for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A single, dubious quality US data report last Friday was enough to send bond and equity markets into paroxysms of delight. One month’s employment report should not trigger market moves of this degree. It is easy to put all the blame for this on the exuberance of traders, but Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s mantra of “data dependency” means investors will naturally elevate imprecise short-term data releases into the arbiters of US monetary policy.

We recap the week that was, including today’s release of the April employment report, Wednesday’s Fed statement and press conference, along with preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation covers recent developments and potential executive action surrounding the US-Mexico border, Secretary of State Blinken’s Middle East regional tour, and a motion to vacate House Speaker Mike Johnson. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US employment report Friday looms. Around 119,000 companies will be asked about their employees. Around 67,000 companies will not bother to reply. Markets will obsess about the data anyway. The expectation is for slower job creation (as measured by payrolls), with a stable monthly change in average earnings (which are not the same thing as wages).

Our series of emerging markets conversations continues as we expand on CIO’s view on emerging market debt, along with risks and positioning considerations to be mindful of. Featured is Donald McLauchlan, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele, and colleagues around the world discuss inflation expectations, the outlook and implications of the situation in the Middle East, and scenarios for investors.

The Federal Reserve announced a slower pace of shrinking its balance sheet. Context is important here—quantitative policy is about the balance between the supply of and demand for liquidity. Demand for liquidity was slowing significantly after the pandemic, requiring the Fed to shrink its balance sheet to match. Liquidity demand is now slowing less, so the Fed’s balance sheet can shrink more slowly.

A large part of the world is not working today, in celebration of workers. But the old order is changing—and increasingly we may need to celebrate profits. One of the features of the pandemic was an explosion in small business creation. More people have side hustles: Selling on eBay; renting on AirBnB; writing economic books that are widely available for purchase. Self-employment and contract work have increased. The income from these endeavours is often classified as profits.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

Our conversation outlines some trending tax considerations and developments associated with the muni market. We also spend time reviewing muni-related portfolio themes, along with a review of recent muni market performance drivers. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Eurozone April inflation data generates less of the tense excitement that a US inflation release can produce. The regional data we have already had suggests a modest decline in the headline consumer price inflation rate. Overall, Eurozone inflation has fallen from 10.6% to essentially an on-target number within a year and a half—without an unemployment shock. This suggests that inflation is neither sticky, nor conventionally cyclical.

To begin the week, Jason outlines the current market outlook scenarios of the UBS Chief Investment Office, along with recommendations when it comes to asset allocation. We also recap market activity throughout the month of April and touch on renewed concerns over ‘stagflation’. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Preliminary consumer price inflation numbers for April are due from Germany and Spain. There are no sizeable base effects or peculiarities in these numbers. The expectation for both counties is an inflation rate similar to March—although the consensus range is moderately wide, and unwinding profit-led inflation is difficult to forecast.

Dan rejoins the podcast to provide his near-to-medium term outlook for the US economy, monetary policy, and equity markets. We also discuss where Dan is finding opportunity within equities, as well as the risks to be mindful of as we approach 2H24. Featured is Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As we close out another week (and the month of April), Frank and Barry recap fixed income performance, as well as this week’s notable market moving events, notably the Q1 GDP print. We also preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists for the Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

On this week’s episode, Burkhard reflects on April’s market performance and whether potential adjustments to the timing of Fed rate cuts could impact the prospects for growth. We also touch on how investors should consider positioning for rising geopolitical risk, and on the lighter side, share some reading and movie tips for a Spring weekend!

This week we examine what national polling in currently pointing to for the race for the White House, including takeaways from this week’s Pennsylvania primary. Shane also outlines some upcoming agenda items and focuses for Congress, and shares his expectations for Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets exhibited a naïve belief in the accuracy of economic data yesterday. US first quarter GDP will probably be revised stronger, and hinted at future consumer strength. The data does put more focus on today’s personal spending figures—and in particular the personal consumer expenditure deflators.

Jason and Paul rejoin the podcast in-studio to discuss the second edition of the new CEO Briefing Book quarterly series. We dive into how the macroeconomic environment, the landscape for corporate transactions, and geopolitics have all evolved thus far in 2024, and in turn what that means for corporate operating environments and decision making. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US releases its first guess at first quarter GDP (a generally accurate number should be available sometime around 2029 or 2030). The rapid pace of structural change means that increasing amounts of economic activity are likely being missed in this sort of data. Overall, there should be some signs of a slowdown, but middle-income consumers will still provide resilience.

As US taxes are expected to rise (especially for wealthy families), spanning income tax, capital gains tax, and estate tax, Justin and Ainsley join to discuss strategies that investors can leverage in order to prepare. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Matt rejoins Jason in the studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Matt McLennan, Co-Head of the Global Value Team, First Eagle Investment Management, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Senate has passed legislation defunding parts of Gen Z, with a ban on TikTok being allowed in US app stores unless the Chinese owner sells within 270 days. This potentially removes the economic activity generated by US content creators (influencers reportedly have an average income of over USD120,000—albeit with a very uneven income distribution). This economic activity may be underreported in official data, but it still takes place.

Our conversation outlines performance expectations for fixed income over the next few months, along with CIO’s current thinking on Fed rate cuts in 2024. We also review allocation fixed income allocation preferences. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Another blast of business sentiment opinion polls will be trying to get attention today. European business sentiment has tended to underreport economic reality. The gut instincts of respondents do not necessarily match an objective assessment of the facts. The challenge is that any gains in sentiment might reflect improving reality, but might also reflect sentiment catching up with reality without the real world outlook shifting.

The markets have been faced in recent weeks with notable economic data releases, updated views on the Fed’s course for monetary policy, rising geopolitical concerns, and Q1 corporate reporting. Jason Draho addresses all of these factors and how they’re impacting markets, and shares guidance when it comes to positioning your portfolio. Plus, Jason weighs in as to whether the US economy has already “landed”. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Structural change is a challenge. Data becomes less reliable, and traditional economic relationships break. Last week, the UK reported London house prices underperformed the rest of the country, reflecting shifts triggered in part by flexible working. That trend changes real estate demand, consumption patterns, travel patterns, productivity, and leisure time—and tends to mean that economic activity is under-reported. This is why details in data are increasingly important.

Tensions in the Middle East continue to rise following Iran’s attack on Israel. To discuss the latest developments and what could happen next, Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management, is joined by Admiral James Stavridis, Vice Chair of Global Affairs at The Carlyle Group, Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management, and Jay Dobson, CIO Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist, UBS Global Wealth Management.

In the wake of recent direct conflict between Israel and Iran, Shane recaps where the conflict stands and what the response has consisted of. We also preview a key weekend up on Capitol Hill where the House is slated to vote on legislation aimed at delivering several aid packages, with House Speaker Johnson’s future in question. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As we conclude another trading week, we reflect on the start of the Q1 corporate earnings season, and recent activity within US equity markets. We also cover an outlook for equity market performance, as well as positioning preferences. Plus, a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shaivon Chatman

On this week’s episode, Burkhard explains how a young statistician saved the lives of many Air Force pilots during WWII - while the famous anecdote dates back almost 80 years, it still has lessons for investors. We also cover what the recent annual IMF meeting suggests about the global economy, and in turn, the potential road ahead for Fed rate cuts.

Financial markets are having to assess political risks—something markets are ill-equipped to do. US officials confirmed Israel had attacked Iran, with reports of an explosion in Isfahan. The market response was a classic (perhaps unthinking) safe-haven trade. Does Iran now respond? Iranian media is downplaying the attacks, and it might be difficult for Iran’s government to retaliate if the narrative in Isfahan is “nothing to see here”.

US President Biden called China “xenophobic” in comments highlighting China’s structural economic challenges. Biden also pledged higher taxes on US consumers of China’s steel and aluminum. US Congress lives in terror that China will learn the “Texas hold‘em” TikTok dance before Speaker Johnson has mastered the moves, and is proposing to tie a TikTok ban to aid measures for Ukraine and Israel.

Torsten rejoins Jason in the studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is not an economist. Not everyone can be an economist, but central bank heads probably should be economists. Yesterday, Powell stated reaching 2% inflation was taking longer than expected. The US PCE deflator is 2.5% y/y, the core PCE deflator is 2.8% y/y, and harmonized inflation is 2.4% y/y. Imprecise data means most economists regard a 2% inflation target as meaning a 1%-to-3% range. The fictional owners’ equivalent rent may be taking longer than expected to reach 2%, but that is not the same thing as inflation.

Listen to our first ElectionWatch virtual event, where Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, was joined by Frank Kelly, Founder & Managing Partner at Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, Mike Rogers, Former Director of the National Security Agency, and David Rubenstein, Co-Founder of The Carlyle Group.

This new monthly podcast focuses on topics that help families understand the basics of investing and financial planning at three different levels of depth (Definition, Identification, and Implementation). Featured to discuss the topic of “risk” are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s official first quarter GDP data reported surprising strength. Unsurprisingly, this surprise will make the official 2024 growth target easier to achieve. March economic data was less supportive, with weakness evident in production and retail sales figures. The industrial data may reflect the ongoing pivot away from goods by global consumers. Amidst the general hedonism of yesterday’s US retail sales data, the trend away from spending on durables and in favor of spending on services was evident.

Following an eventful couple of weeks in the markets, spanning upside surprises in macro data to geopolitical developments, Jason Draho brings us up to speed on CIO’s current outlook (including the forecast for Fed rate cuts) and portfolio positioning guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets are relatively calm in the wake of events in the Middle East. This may seem peculiar, but markets rarely price in extreme tail risks. Iran indicated it considers the matter concluded. US President Biden has urged restraint. Signs from the Israeli war cabinet suggest a response, but there is no idea of scale. The G7 has been as effective as the G7 ever is, talking about sanctions against Iran without agreeing on action.

Kathleen and Jon discuss a wide range of topics, including considerations when it comes to muni duration, sector preferences (including tax-exempt), implications of the 2024 election, and much more. Featured is Jonathan Mondillo, Head of US Fixed Income with abrdn, and Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team.

On this week’s episode, Burkhard explains what investors can learn from stock market all-time-highs, placing the US and global economy into the context of a “new world order” rising, and how the UBS House View offers guidance in a fast-changing world (plus, what Bob Marley had to say about "what's wealth?”).

We recap the week that was, including a look at the March CPI print and the potential implications to monetary policy (including a review of CIO’s rate cut expectations). We also recap remarks from this week’s Fed speakers, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation revisits ongoing debate up on Capitol Hill over aid packages for both Ukraine and Israel, and what this all could potentially mean for House Speaker Mike Johnson’s tenure. We also touch on renewed bi-partisan efforts within the US Senate to stem advanced technology sharing with US adversaries. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host Daniel Cassidy

ECB President Lagarde signalled nothing markets did not already know yesterday. Rate cuts are coming. Economically, the dissenters on the governing council are probably correct and rate cuts would be better now—but precise timing on monetary policy is less important when the objective is cyclical (precision matters when the aim is liquidity or managing disorderly markets).

Inevitably markets reacted to US consumer price inflation headlines, but the details did matter. There is very strong evidence against inflation stickiness. Aside from rents and fictitious owners’ equivalent rents, there is deflation in almost every consumer price subcategory somewhere in the US. With collapsing clothing prices in Tampa or plunging communication prices in Chicago, it is difficult to argue that structural inflation stickiness exists when every key sector has deflation somewhere in the country.

With a strong Q1 behind us, Melda and David outline their thoughts on current valuations, along with a performance outlook for US equities. We also cover notable headwinds to performance and discuss positioning preferences within the US and around the globe. Featured are Melda Mergen, Global Chief Investment Officer for Equities, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US March consumer price inflation data is due. Inflation is a complex subject (reasonably priced, widely available books could be written about it). Sadly, the world of hashtag economics reduces everything to a single data point (or at best, two). However, the details today really do matter.

Each quarter we will dive into what’s new amongst the six thematic focuses of the UBS Chief Investment Office, as outlined within the new Longer Term Themes Quarterly publication. Our inaugural conversation focuses on how the ‘space economy’ intersects with one of the six thematic clusters, security & critical infrastructure, along with potential implications of the 2024 election outcome to the space economy. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The market calendar is mainly noise. Quite a lot of that noise has come from Federal Reserve members. Investors can pick whichever view they want, to confirm whatever preconceived policy views they hold. Recent remarks offer a choice of three rate cuts, vigilance against inflation, or too soon to cut rates. The range of views matters less than in the past, given the Powell Fed’s weird unanimity of decision-making.

Our conversation focuses on the landscape for residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), including thoughts around investment considerations. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets await US March consumer price inflation data, due for release on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s 2022 policy errors elevated the importance of consumer price inflation, and thus downgraded the importance of actual, real-world inflation. The details of the inflation data may be important. City-based inflation figures, and the trends in price levels (and inflation) for high frequency purchases are politically relevant ahead of the November elections.

Our conversation provides some takeaways from this week’s phone meeting between President’s Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, along with Treasury Secretary Yellen’s visit to Beijing. We also discuss where Congressional negotiations stand around an aid package for Ukraine. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Brian Rose joins to share his take on the March employment report, along with the health of the US labor market. We also review other key economic releases from the past week, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

It is US employment report Friday (or “average earnings are not wages” day). Since mid-last year, the US has added almost 1.60 million jobs, and has also lost almost 0.25 million jobs depending on which bit of the employment report you read. Labor markets are changing—flexible working, changing industries like online retail, new jobs like social media influencers, the rise and fall of job hopping, side hustles and more self-employment, automation, volunteering, early retirement, and population movements. Data is not capturing these changes properly.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke yesterday. Today, no fewer than five members of the Fed are speaking on the economic outlook, presumably to clarify what Fed Chair Powell “meant to say”. Actually, Powell’s speechwriters did not say much controversial, keeping rate cut expectations alive. Media comment around this has tended to sensationalize—inflation is branded as sticky (it is not), and above target (moot point).

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on the economic outlook today. An explanation of how Fed policy transmitted (or failed to transmit) to inflation would be interesting. Instead, comments are likely to focus on the prospect for three rate cuts this year, in line with other Fed speakers.

With US equity markets trading near all-time-highs, we share considerations when it comes equity diversification via emerging markets, notably within Asia’s technology sector. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK British Retail Consortium’s shop price index exhibited more disinflation than had been expected, with prices rising 1.3% y/y. This measure does include the discounting applied to loyalty card holders in the two-tier pricing system (consumer price inflation excludes this), and retailers have been keen to shore up customer loyalty with selective discounts as resentment about profit-led inflation has increased.

Our conversation outlines the thesis behind CIO’s most preferred view of the US Industrials sector. We also touch on sub-sector preferences, investment themes, and headwinds associated with the sector. Featured is Nathaniel Gabriel, Industrials & Materials Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team.

Our conversation recaps the recently signed Government Funding Bill, and examines efforts from within the House of Representatives to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson. We also check in on what recent Presidential polls are pointing to, and discuss Federal support in response to the bridge collapse in Baltimore earlier this week. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management

Our conversation outlines the implications of potential outcomes of the 2024 US Elections to emerging market economies and markets. We also cover positioning considerations, spanning China, Mexico, India and Brazil. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The latest guess at UK GDP in the fourth quarter left headline numbers unchanged, while the details shifted. Strike action undermined fourth quarter activity. The data will be revised for years to come, and history suggests it will be revised stronger. Things like productivity gains from flexible working and additional income streams from side hustles are harder to capture in early GDP guesses.

View Points is a new weekly podcast series which focuses on global market and macro developments. Tune in each week to hear timely insights from Burkhard Varnholt. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In a relatively quiet data calendar, Spanish March consumer price inflation gets some attention. The expectation is for a modest increase in the headline rate and a modest decline in the core rate. However the consensus is built on a relatively small number of forecasts across a relatively wide range of views, so comparisons need to be treated with caution.

CS Head of Investments Burkhard Varnholt and colleagues around the world discuss three of the big questions investors are asking today.

This month we examine the evolution of the green labor market landscape, along with a look at shareholder engagement when it comes to the energy transition. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Martin Grosskopf, Vice President & Portfolio Manager with AGF Investments. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, and Alina Golant, along with Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist, Sangeeta Marfatia.

The head of the US Congressional Budget Office issued a warning about US debt sustainability, suggesting an extreme parallel with the debt debacle presided over by former UK Prime Minister Truss. US debt levels are not necessarily a concern (the US could sustain a 150% or even 200% debt-to-GDP ratio if it chose). The problem is the rapid growth in debt—which raises questions about the long-term ability of the US government to service its debt.

Our conversation recaps the latest round of Primary results, along with a look at the prospects of a ‘No Labels’ Presidential campaign launch. We also update on recent developments surrounding the Israel-Hamas War, including Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Israel. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation examines positive supply-side developments that have been a boon to the US economy, along with the latest asset allocation guidance from the UBS Chief Investment Office (per the April UBS House View: The next stage). Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

After last week’s flurry of central bank decisions, we now have assorted central bankers giving more detail on their views. The Bank of England’s Mann is on the calendar today. Mann has been a fairly consistent policy hawk, and yet she switched her vote to “unchanged” last month. Details on what caused that shift will be interesting.

This week was all about the Fed, though we heard as well from several other global central banks - we outline the notable takeaways, plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

View Points is a new weekly podcast series which focuses on global market and macro developments. Tune in each week to hear timely insights from Burkhard Varnholt. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week has increased certainty about interest rate reductions in the world’s main economies. That certainty was absolute in Switzerland, where rates were cut. The uber hawks of the Bank of England had their wings clipped, and the Federal Reserve may start to believe that US trend growth is higher.

We outline the recent downgrade of China to neutral by the UBS Chief Investment Office, plus touch on a performance update of Chinese equities, along with a review of preferences. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.

Financial markets had the right reaction for the wrong reasons to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Certainty about US rate cuts has increased. This should be driven by the details of inflation data, which show clear disinflationary forces. It should not be dependent on the crude, almost vulgar abuse of economics that is represented by the fabled dot plot projections.

Fresh off of the latest FOMC policy meeting and press conference, the UBS Chief Investment Office shares reflections on the outcome. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We continue our series of thematic investing conversations by reviewing recent updates to the ‘Circular Economy’ longer-term investment theme from the Chief Investment Office. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our monthly conversation on the muni market examines the resiliency of local governments, the recent reversal of muni performance, portfolio themes to consider, and a performance outlook for the asset class. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Bank of Japan did exactly what the Nikkei said it would. The only surprise was that two members of the policy committee appear not to have read the article, and disobeyed by dissenting. The Bank of Japan has had more internal dissent than the Federal Reserve in the past 18 months. Dissent between economists is perfectly natural.

Jay Dobson and Ed Coyne drop by UBS Studios in New York for an in-depth conversation about where we are in the energy transition story, including a look at technological innovations, investment considerations, and what to expect in the years (and decades) ahead. Featured are Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist Americas, with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Partner, at Sprott Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Join us as we explore a new provision that allows excess college 529 assets to be rolled to the 529 beneficiary’s Roth IRA. Isaac Chota, UBS 529 and Donor-advised fund program manager and George Walsh, UBS IRA program manager, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discuss the possibilities and limitations of such rollovers. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US interest rate expectations jumped about yesterday. There was a lack of either meaningful data or Federal Reserve commentary. However, there is also a lack of a medium-term policy framework, articulating the Fed’s views on the interaction between policy and economics. At a time of structural change, that lack of a framework encourages volatility.

With the next FOMC meeting a day away, Jason Draho speaks to how the Fed might interpret recent economic data, and how the data may influence the Fed’s policy decision making. We also discuss an investment outlook, and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by UBS Studios in New York to update us on Congressional action against TikTok, the unfolding developments within Haiti, and upcoming milestones on the 2024 campaign trail, including the potential entrance of No Labels into the race. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week marks a new phase in the battle between markets and central banks about the timing of rate cuts. We are not at the end—no one is expecting the assorted central bank meetings to produce rate cuts this week. We are not at the beginning of the end—explicit forward guidance of rate cuts also seems unlikely. But we are at the end of the beginning. Ongoing disinflation forces continue to make a forceful case for rate cuts in the second quarter.

As we conclude another trading week, Matt Tormey rejoins us to weigh in on equity valuations and recent momentum in markets. We also reflect on the latest round of inflation data, and discuss positioning consideration for your portfolio. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

We have consumer inflation expectations surveys from the US and UK today. These will probably generate media excitement, but economically they are meaningless noise. Consumers’ inflation expectations are shaped by high-frequency purchases like food and fuel—most UK and US deflation is focused on low frequency purchases like durable goods. Inflation perceptions have more to do with the daily cost of buying a Snickers bar than the actual cost of living—although slower US food price inflation and UK supermarkets’ two-tier pricing may help lower perceptions.

As we near the end of 1Q24, we reflect on fixed income performance and CIO’s current positioning recommendations within the asset class. We also outline the investment case for investment grade corporates and review considerations when it comes to investment grade portfolio construction. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US producer price data is mercifully free of problematic used-car prices and fantasy owners’ equivalent rent. It is also less susceptible to profit-led inflation, covering prices further up the supply chain. The final demand measure has been below 2% y/y for almost a year now, and the overall picture should be of benign inflation pressures.

Following the upgrade of the US Healthcare sector to most preferred, Eric Potoker explains the allocation shift and sub-sector views within the broader group. We also spend time discussing healthcare-related investment themes, along with the investment risks to be mindful of. Featured is Eric Potoker, Healthcare Sector Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Following this morning's release of the February CPI print, Senior Economist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, Brian Rose, drops by to share his thoughts on the data release and the broader US economy.

US consumer price inflation was largely as expected, but the detail shows a narrower number of prices that are contributing to inflation. Excluding shelter the figure remains below 2% inflation, and durable goods had their fifteenth consecutive month of deflation. Economists exclude items from the headline not to fiddle the figures, but to better understand disinflationary forces. Food price inflation slows (though most prices are not falling, and chocolate and vending machine inflation is still high). This may be politically relevant in impacting inflation perceptions.

Following this morning's release of the February CPI print, Senior Economist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, Brian Rose, drops by to share his thoughts on the data release and the broader US economy.

Mike Contopoulos rejoins Leslie Falconio for a discussion around asset class performance, the potential course for monetary policy from here, positioning, and more. Featuring Mike Contopoulos, Director of Fixed Income for Richard Bernstein Advisors, as well as Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US February consumer price data are due. It is the detail that will tell us about the strength of disinflation forces. The January number had less headline disinflation than anticipated, but this owed much to the fairy tale of owners’ equivalent rent—a price no one pays. The inflation experience of homeowners is a lot less than headline consumer prices, which means their spending power is better.

We begin the trading week by recapping last week’s macro developments, including the latest US jobs report, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. We also preview this week’s inflation data and discuss the potential implications to the course for monetary policy and markets. Plus, we share current views when it comes to positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We conclude the week by reflecting on the February Jobs Report, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony, and discuss the investment implications of these macro events. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Japan offered a timely reminder of the unreliability of economic data. Fourth quarter GDP was revised from -0.4% to +0.4%. Admittedly, this is an annualized number, which sensationalizes and exaggerates changes, but it is still a notable revision. The revision was mainly due to stronger investment spending—Japanese consumer spending was revised somewhat weaker.

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist Americas.

We reflect on President Biden’s third State of the Union address, including a look at the key themes and messaging. We also update on Decision 2024 and the road ahead. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We conclude the week by reflecting on the February Jobs Report, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony, and discuss the investment implications of these macro events. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US employment report looms—for all its flaws (which are many), it still evokes excitement. Investors have two questions. Is the economy slowing? Will wage pressures create a fourth inflation wave? Payrolls data hints at the former—if the economy is not slowing the Federal Reserve might feel justified in allowing real interest rates to rise. The answer to the wage question is “no,” and average hourly earnings do not measure wages. Every time you use a self-service checkout, you push up average hourly earnings; your voluntary unreported labor replaces a low-paid worker.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell testifies to the Senate today. Yesterday’s remarks were consistent with three or four rate cuts this year, but there was surprise suggestion that a proposed tightening of bank regulation may be rethought. Fed President Kashkari hinted at support for a drastic tightening of monetary policy (suggesting only one rate cut this year, generating soaring real rates).

The US “Super Tuesday” primaries offered no real surprises for markets as to the outcome. However, opinion polls seem to be the clear loser. The Republican primaries were the main contested votes, and there notable errors in predictions of former US President Trump’s victory margin.

China announced a growth target of around 5%. China’s officials are strongly motivated to ensure official numbers meet the target, but do investors care? China’s domestic growth rate is more important to global companies (who make goods in China to sell in China) than to the global economy. China’s imports for domestic use are limited in volume. The quality of growth also matters. Were growth to come from increasing the consumer share of the economy, it might have more of a global impact.

Following what has been a busy week in Washington DC, Tom McLoughlin join us to update on government funding negotiations, preview this week’s Super Tuesday events, and the State of the Union address. Plus, we touch on what early polls are pointing to for the Presidential election, as well as the top issues on the minds of voters. Featured is Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the S&P 500 having closed higher 16 of the past 18 weeks, Jason Draho outlines the factors that could determine whether the momentum will continue, including upcoming data releases, and the next FOMC meeting. We also cover positioning considerations for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It’s a quiet start to a busy week. The ECB makes a policy decision later this week—no one is expecting a change, but it allows for an official statement and ECB President Lagarde will speak. While Lagarde speaking might lack a certain scarcity value, the tone of recent comments from ECB members has tended towards rate cuts being later.

We recap the week that was, including the latest PCE data, remarks from several Fed officials, and ongoing public policy negotiations in Washington DC. Plus, we preview what you expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US personal consumer expenditure deflator remains in disinflation. Durable goods prices sank ever deeper into deflation. Market-based prices showed disinflation, as did services excluding financial service (financial service prices often follow market valuation). There was an intensely technical clarification about calculating owners’ equivalent rent—price no real person pays or cares about, but which excites economists. The clarification makes it unlikely OER will add more to inflation this year.

Our conversation provides a performance update and outlook for hedge funds, along with a look at the investment case for hedge fund investing in the current environment. We also cover considerations when it comes to participating in the asset class. Featured is Sean Sanborn, Hedge Fund Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office, including Mark Haefele, David Lefkowitz, Rolf Ganter, and Crystal Zhao, as they share an economic and market outlook.

Yesterday’s US GDP revisions did not add much to investors’ stock of knowledge. The US consumer proved stronger than initially thought, as US consumers so often are. The market-based personal consumer expenditure deflator has slowed quite notably over recent quarters. What good old fashioned supply and demand is doing is creating a quite powerful disinflation story.

Our conversation outlines considerations when it comes to earmarking assets for tax-efficient retirement spending, along with those for inheritance and philanthropy. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist Americas, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US fourth quarter GDP data is revised today. This does not give us a slightly less ill-informed picture of economic activity at the end of last year, but it is still likely to miss quite a lot that is going on in the economy. Economies are changing faster than statisticians, and things like home working and self-employment are challenges—to say nothing of recording the economic value of the latest TikTok meme. Early GDP numbers are inclined to underreport activity, although today’s data is unlikely to correct all of that underreporting.

Brian Levitt is a Global Market Strategist at Invesco. Brian shares is economic outlook (including a look at the US inflation picture), reflects on the Q4 reporting season, and outlines his preferences when it comes to asset allocation. We also spend time examining the Fed’s course for monetary policy, namely the timing for rate cuts in 2024. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We discuss the cataylsts behind the stall in the muni rally, examine the results of CIO’s annual review of widely held New York credits, and look at some muni-related portfolio themes. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As officials in Washington DC meet to negotiate an aid package for Ukraine and avert a partial shutdown of the US government, Shane discusses what’s at stake and how negotiations might progress from here. We also recap the South Carolina primary and preview upcoming milestones on the campaign trail, along with recap last week’s Governor’s Summitt at the White House. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In this episode, we’re rejoined by Katherine Kroll of Brown Advisory for a discussion around the decarbonization of the shipping industry, and how this intersects with artificial intelligence. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Katherine Kroll, Director of Equity Research, Sustainable Investing with Brown Advisory. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s January consumer price inflation data slowed, but the slowdown was less marked in services. This was because of foreign holiday prices—Japanese consumers are following the developed economy trend of prioritizing fun. The drivers of inflation numbers are relatively few, making a sudden rate increase by the Bank of Japan unlikely, but the modest nature of the inflation slowdown keeps alive prospects for a later rate increase.

William Davies is the Global Chief Investment Officer at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. William shares his thoughts on the condition of the US economy, relative to other regions around the globe. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, and how to think about positioning your portfolio for the current environment. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Jason starts the week by updating with the latest changes per the March UBS House View. We also discuss the factors that could flip the US economy into a ‘Roaring 20s’ scenario, after having been near ‘Goldilocks’ for the past year. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is a lot of central bank speak today. European Central Bank President Lagarde will of course be offering comments. However ECB officials have given the impression that the ECB will follow the lead of the Federal Reserve. That, and a rather dangerous focus on data dependency, reduces the impact of ECB officials’ public pronouncements.

Federal Reserve governor Waller suggested there was “no rush” to cut rates. There is no absolute urgency, but there are three counter arguments. Real rates for businesses and consumers have risen significantly since last July. Any lingering US inflation is mainly confined to Texas and Florida, not the whole country. And saying there is “no rush” is unlikely to be appreciated by struggling lower income households.

We examine a potential timeline for the Fed to commence Quantitative Tightening, including the criteria which needs to be met, and how fixed income markets might respond to such a policy shift. We also review allocation preferences within the asset class, and highlight recent performance drivers. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtah, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve minutes offered some clarity on future Fed policy. The tone is consistent with rate cuts and a soft economic landing. The Fed does not want rising real interest rates with a slowing economy. Disinflation trends were discussed (economists selectively adjust data to better identify these trends).

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and markets will care. The US is approaching changes in both monetary and quantitative policies. Fed Chair Powell seemingly lacks the communication skills of his predecessors, so markets are easily pushed about by shifting policy expectations. The minutes offer a more considered view of where policy should be heading.

The ECB releases a negotiated wage settlement index. ECB President Lagarde has repeatedly highlighted wages as a factor determining policy moves. Real wages should be rising—after so long a period of weak wage growth, rebalancing is needed. Rising real wages should not be seen as an automatic cost pressure for inflation—changing working habits and automation have increased productivity, allowing companies to pay workers more in exchange for more output.

Before we start this holiday-shortened trading week, we first reflect on last week’s market moving macro data and assess current equity market valuations. Plus, we preview what you can expect over the next four days. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The ending of the lunar new year holiday has people focusing on China’s domestic demand. The number of trips rose above pre-pandemic levels, but early indications are that the amount of money spent per trip was subdued. As with developed economies, China’s consumers want to see friends and family, and have fun. Unlike developed economies, there seems a bias to having fun cheaply.

US producer price inflation is due. This does not have the political importance of consumer price data. It matters because most companies sell to other companies (not end-consumers). It is also mercifully free of the fiction of owners’ equivalent rent. However, producer prices do not tend to capture profit-led inflation, which hits at the end of supply chains.

Japan’s population fell 0.44% last year. Fewer people make and consumer fewer things. Japan’s economy had a second quarter of economic contraction at the end of 2023, but in the context of a declining population this is less surprising.

Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation rate slowed slightly less than expected—in the world of hashtag economics that was “hot” and a cue for hysteria. In reality, the fictitious owners’ equivalent rent drove most of the inflation. Moreover, inflation is geographically concentrated. For homeowners in most of the US, inflation in reality (excluding OER) is around 2%—bad luck if you live in Texas or Florida, where it is approaching 5%.

Following this morning's release of the January CPI print, Senior Economist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, Brian Rose, drops by to share his thoughts on the data release and the broader US economy.

With the S&P 500 having topped the 5,000 level late last week, investors are curious as to how markets might evolve from here. Jason provides his take on the road ahead, along with updates on the Q4 reporting season and previews this week’s inflation data. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The Truth About Inflation is a complex subject, worthy of a book. The challenge for economists with today’s US consumer price data is stripping away the fiction to get at the reality. The largest part of the consumer price index is owners’ equivalent rent, which rose 6.3% in December. It is a price no one pays, and it means middle-income homeowners have a lower cost of living increase and thus more spending power.

Former US President Trump was making some strongly pro-Russia comments over the weekend, in the wake of increasingly hostile rhetoric toward China. Markets to date are largely unmoved. Investors are not yet prepared to price scenarios for the November elections. While defence and trade policy fall under presidential commander in chief powers, fiscal policy will depend on Congress as well as the White House.

To close out a busy week in the markets, Danny Kessler rejoins the podcast to share CIO’s view on renewed concerns about commercial real estate exposure at US banks. We also update on the Q4 corporate reporting season, review the week’s notable data releases, and preview the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The calendar is quiet. The recent pattern of data deluge then data desert is unhelpful. In an increasingly complex world, overworked economists need time to examine the details of numbers to judge if they are reliable. Gaps in the calendar allow markets to speculate on irrelevant topics.

China’s consumer prices have been in deflation since last July (producer prices for far longer). January consumer price deflation was the worst in over 14 years, but this is distorted. The lunar new year is (literally) a moveable feast—occurring in January 2023, and in February 2024. That distorts food price patterns, exaggerating deflation. Nonetheless, deflation trend is indicative of weak domestic demand.

US December trade figures are due. Trade will be an increasing focus in 2024 as elections encourage economic nationalism. Structural changes are also adjusting trade patterns as the lengthy supply chains of the third industrial revolution appear unnecessarily complex given the technologies of the fourth industrial revolution. Geographic details of trade patterns are of interest, therefore. While the focus will be on imports (the US role as consumer of last resort is why it is the world’s most important economy), the US does still export and shifts there should not be overlooked.

In this week’s episode, Jason explains why the US economy’s ‘vibecession’ appears to be over and a ‘vibespansion’ has begun. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy and portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

There is a narrative that rising equity markets are good, and falling equity markets are bad. This is not true. Fairly valued equities are good, and bubbles or disorderly markets are bad. If the latest barrage of equity market measures by China’s government are aimed at correcting irrational pessimism and disorderly markets, they are economically beneficial. If they are driven by a desire to see equities higher just because they want equities higher, they are economically negative.

A pre-recorded television interview with Federal Reserve Chair Powell was broadcast over the weekend. Powell’s public remarks have a scarcity value that certain other central bank leaders might learn from. The value of the content of Powell’s remarks is, perhaps, more questionable. Powell focused on what his colleagues were thinking—no March rate cut, three cuts this year. Powell added that a weaker economy might mean more rate cuts, a stronger economy fewer rate cuts.

As another eventful week comes to a close, Brian Rose shares his take on the latest employment data, along with Wednesday’s Fed statement. We also discuss the overall state of the US economy and what to expect in the month’s ahead. Plus, preview what you can expect next week. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

With a new year underway, we discuss what investors will be focused on and how factors spanning global elections to potential shifts in monetary policy might impact the sustainable investing landscape. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Lucy Thomas, Head of Sustainable Investing at UBS Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist Americas.

The US reminds us that average earnings are not wages, and also publishes some other employment data. Today’s employment report will be a bit messy—US workers do not like cold weather, and the weather was cold. There is also the big set of benchmark revisions to past data, which are likely to reduce estimated payrolls.

Following this past weekend’s attacks in Jordan against US servicemembers, Shane discusses how and when the US will respond to Iran and what it all means for brewing tensions in the region. We also update on House GOP impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas, and bi-partisan Congressional legislative efforts aimed at tax breaks for businesses and children. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office, including Mark Haefele, Paul Donovan, Mark Andersen, and Nadia Lovell, as they share an economic and market outlook.

The violent swings in US equity pricing yesterday tell investors all they need to know about Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s communication skills. In the battle between extremists predicting a hard landing and the realists who see a soft economic landing, the Fed seems to tilt towards a soft landing. Rates have peaked, a March cut is (probably) not happening, but cuts are coming.

Fresh off of the latest FOMC policy meeting and press conference, the UBS Chief Investment Office shares reflections on the outcome, and how markets have been responding. Plus, an outlook for monetary policy is shared, along with considerations when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy. Fed Chair Powell (not an economist) is unlikely to apologize for past policy errors. The Fed chair might try to take undeserved credit for the rapid US inflation slowdown.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management

The Eurozone and assorted components release preliminary fourth quarter GDP guesses. A small drop in growth is expected, led by Germany. The German economy was poorly positioned for global consumers’ spending focus shifting from goods to having fun. Any drop will provoke media hysteria about the nonsensical term “technical recession”. Falling GDP is more probable when countries have falling populations, and in the real world no one differentiates –0.1% from 0.0% growth.

Investors can expect a lot to digest in the week ahead, spanning a Fed policy meeting, to numerous corporate earnings, all leading to the January Jobs report to cap off the week. Jason Draho outlines his expectations and what certain outcomes may mean for the markets and your portfolio. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today’s calendar is so quiet even ECB President Lagarde is not speaking (former US Treasury Secretary Summers might be speaking, but that is just background noise at this stage).

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

We recap the week that was, including an update on Q4 corporate earnings reporting, and a look at the drivers behind recent equity market momentum. We also discuss equity positioning and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

With the 2024 campaign trail in full swing, Shane reflects on the results of the New Hampshire primary and previews what the next few weeks have in store. We also update on border negotiations within Congress and ongoing tensions in the Red Sea. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US GDP data showed stronger growth, although inventory numbers hint at some slowing ahead. Inflation continues to moderate. Can the Federal Reserve claim credit for this? It cannot. Central banks slow inflation by weakening credit and demand. This is not what has happened in the US. Inflation was always going to slow, and US economic performance seems to have happened in spite of the Fed, not because of it.

We continue with our series of muni market conversations by reviewing YTD asset class performance, as well as some portfolio themes. We also spend time on outlining the investment case for high quality water and sewer bonds. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas.

ECB President Lagarde speaks. This is not an especially rare occurrence. In one of last week’s multitude of speeches, Lagarde took time to brand economists a “tribal clique”. Today’s remarks come after the ECB decides on policy, so could generate a flicker of interest. ECB colleagues have periodically had to “clarify” some of the president’s remarks, but assuming that is not necessary this time vague signals of a summer easing seem likely.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, and Alina Golant, along with Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist, Sangeeta Marfatia.

Today’s calendar is plagued with business sentiment survey opinion, and little else. Surveys attract media attention because if you assume the survey does what it says it does, it can produce a more dramatic story. However, survey evidence has been a progressively less reliable description of reality across various measures. The UK government’s ONS says its labor force survey is unreliable—why would sentiment surveys of employment be more credible?

Our series of thematic investing conversations continues as we explore the top sustainability-linked investment ideas for 2024, outlined within the latest edition of Sustainable Investing Perspectives from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Bank of Japan continued its policy of masterful inactivity—leaving everything but its inflation forecasts unchanged (headline inflation forecasts were revised lower). Investors are focusing on policy meetings after the spring pay round as being the earliest chance of a policy change. The ECB bank lending survey is due, and relevant to future policy discussions there.

In this week’s episode, Jason Draho reviews the ‘key questions for 2024’ as outlined within the latest Monthly Letter from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Jason also discusses the latest allocation recommendations and messages in focus. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Initial trade data for January from South Korea suggests that there was a slowdown in export growth. The data should not be affected by rerouting ships away from the Red Sea (it is counting when goods leave Korea, not when they arrive at their destination). Global trade has to contend with consumers shifting demand from goods to services, the hype about artificial intelligence (and its associated technology), and simplifying supply chains.

Our conversation covers a range of timely topics, including takeaways from President Biden’s White House meeting with Congressional leadership, a status as to where government shutdown negotiations stand, and an update on Decision 2024 ahead of next week’s New Hampshire primary. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A timely conversation with insights into the current environment for fixed income investing, the road ahead for monetary policy, and considerations when it comes to allocation within the asset class. Featured are Gene Tannuzzo, Global Head of Fixed Income, Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK retail sales volumes were weak in December. Consumer rebellion over profit-led inflation pushed consumers into buying earlier when discounts were on offer, and simply refusing to consume when prices were higher. Online retail also slowed, but fared a lot better than in person retail. Elsewhere German producer prices continued in deflation in December.

With 2024 underway, Richard Bernstein rejoins the podcast to share RBA’s economic and market outlook, as well as discusses investment views, monetary policy, and market risk factors with Jason Draho. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets seemed surprised that US December retail sales were stronger than expected. This is weird—some part of US retail sales data surprised positively every single month during 2023. Never go short the hedonism of the US consumer. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book suggested leisure travel also benefitted. However, unlike 2021/22 this spending is unlikely to be indifferent to prices— but instead to be a response to price discounting.

In this week’s Snapshot, Jason Draho answers five ‘bigger picture’ questions that may help to determine ‘what’s next’ for both the markets and the economy. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Retail sales dominate, and there seems no reason abandon the hedonism of the US consumer. Lower income US households are more constrained, but middle income homeowners are living in a world of around 2% inflation (except in Florida) and have more spending firepower. The narrative has shifted. In 2022, consumers were spending the President Trump’s profligate unemployment payments and were relatively price insensitive. Today consumers are responding to evidence of price discounting.

As we look ahead over the first half of 2024, Leslie Falconio outlines expectations for rates and fixed income returns. We also spend time reviewing the latest fixed income allocation recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A container ship has been struck by a missile in the Gulf of Aden, without sustaining serious damage. The economics of the threat to shipping remain muted. There are still ships sailing through the Red Sea. European gas prices are at the lowest level since last August, so concerns about energy prices should be limited. The additional nine days it takes to ship cargo around the Cape of Good Hope is unlikely to result in shortages, and shipping costs are a tiny part of the price consumers pay for goods.

The World Economic Forum gets underway in Davos, filling the media with policymakers’ comments. Policymaker comments are normally recycled statements that have already been made, but making such statements in close proximity to a) other policy makers and b) snow-covered mountains creates more dramatic television coverage and amplifies the noise.

With what promises to be an eventful 2024 now underway, Shane Lieberman updates us on a range of negotiations taking place within Congress as it relates to government funding, the US Southern border, and foreign aid packages. We also touch on the road to the White House by previewing Monday's Iowa caucuses and recapping President Biden's recent campaign appearances. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We recap the week that was, including a look at some notable developments in the digital assets space and what it all means for investors, along with a review of the December inflation data and how the Fed might be interpreting it. Plus, a preview of what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The Gulf region will be a focus in the aftermath of Western attacks on Houthi positions. Economically this does not change much in the short term. Shipping has diverted away from the Red Sea, and it seems unlikely that trade flows will adjust just because of one defensive measure. China’s trade data officially suggests some export growth, with toys and autos improving.

US December consumer price inflation is due. Are investors are focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy response, or economic realities? If the former, then headline numbers and Fed comments likely matter the most (the Powell Fed is more about spin than substance). If the latter, then the headlines matter less than the signals buried in the detail.

As a new year begins, Ainsely Carbone and Justin Waring join the podcast to outline what’s new in 2024 as it relates to Medicare and Social Security benefits. We also cover provisions taking effect as it relates to SECURE 2.0, as well as how one can manage taxes on retirement assets. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist Americas, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects offered gloomy forecasts for GDP growth in the coming five years. If we suspend disbelief and accept the forecasts as accurate, global living standards should do better than the World Bank forecasts imply. Swathes of the world economy have declining populations, meaning headline GDP does a poor job of reflecting living standards. Structural change increases efficiency, and those efficiency gains may go to improving impact economy standards (the environment, work-life balance, etc.) rather than the crude output metrics of GDP.

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Tom Digenan, Head of Americas Investment Solutions Specialists.

Join us for a conversation with Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist with the UBS Chief Investment Office (CIO), and Melinda Hightower, Head of the UBS Multicultural Client Segment. Nadia discuses highlights from the UBS CIO Global Wealth Management’s Year Ahead 2024 publication and what investors should expect.

US November consumer credit jumped higher. Middle income consumers may borrow while still having savings to smooth consumption. Lower income consumers are more likely to borrow involuntarily (buying essentials on credit card, without having enough money to pay the bill at the end of the month). The increased dependence on credit supports consumer spending for now, but is a reminder that there are limits to spending—a soft economic landing is still an economic landing.

A lot has developed within the markets since the UBS Chief Investment Office published its 2024 outlook a couple of months ago - to kick-off the CIO Strategy Snapshot series for the new year, Jason Draho outlines the updates to the 2024 scenarios, along with positioning considerations and what to expect in the months ahead across the markets, the economy, and more. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the US, the official leaders of Congress have agreed to a spending limit. This reduces the risk of a government shutdown although no legislation has been passed and details still need to be agreed. The spending limit has been denounced by the hard right Freedom Caucus, which presents a challenge for House Speaker Johnson. When another Republican leaves the House on 21 January, the Republicans will hold 219 seats to the Democrats’ 213.

As we conclude the first trading week of 2024, Leslie Falconio reflects on the movement of treasury yields and the Fed’s December meeting minutes. We also discuss the prospects for rate cuts in the months ahead and expectations for fixed income total return in 2024. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Fresh off the release of the December Employment Report, Brian Rose offers his take on the data and outlook for the US Labor Market. We also recap some recent data-points and preview next week’s inflation readings. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

German, French, and Dutch December consumer price inflation was as expected, with a very subtle downside surprise. While energy base effects are raising headline inflation rates a little in Europe, the implication is that Eurozone flash consumer price data could surprise in a very unsurprising way by being marginally less than consensus.

The Federal Reserve minutes of the December FOMC meeting suggested rate cuts were self-congratulatory about the decline in US inflation (though this was only partly due to the Fed). They signaled rate cuts this year. They also signalled no rush to cut rates, and interestingly mentioned that activity may be stronger than reported. Economic indicators designed in the 1920s struggle to accurately measure modern ways of working in the 2020s.

The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its December meeting—which is when Fed Chair Powell had a Damascene conversion to dovishness, and fueled a rally across asset classes. The Fed minutes were written and agreed after that, and the nuance may reflect other Fed members’ concerns with the dovish flip-flop.

The last month of 2023 was marked by equity and bond rallies. The economic outlook did not really change, but the language of Federal Reserve Chair Powell did. Because Powell’s past policy errors comprehensively trashed forward guidance, investors can choose which guidance they wish to follow. Other Fed members trying to dilute the reaction to Powell have been ignored.

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist.

Korean export data for early December strengthened. Exports to the US grew quickly (exports to Europe slowed), hinting at restructuring supply chains within Asia. This implies less economic impact from the attacks in the Red Sea, with fewer sailings from Asia to Europe. The Wall Street Journal reported the Biden administration is considering taxing US consumers of Chinese electric vehicles (adding to the Trump administration’s extensive consumer taxes).

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for munis and where opportunity can be found. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Tom Digenan, Head of Americas Investment Solutions Specialists.

UK consumer price disinflation was more than expected. This is a global trend. As consumers rebel against profit-led inflation, retailers scramble to shore up customer loyalty by means of price discounts. UK inflation is probably still overstating reality, as price discounts under supermarkets’ two-tier pricing structures are not currently captured in the data.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

As the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference ‘COP28’ has come to a close, Glen and Amantia spend time reflecting on what this year’s conference delivered and what to expect in the months and years ahead in the way of progress. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Glen Yelton, Global Head of ESG at Invesco. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Bank of Japan, well known for its masterful inactivity on policy, was masterfully inactive on policy today. A change to yield curve control in the first quarter is possible if wage data supports such a move—it is wise never to get too excited about Bank of Japan action.

In our final episode of 2023, Jason outlines his prediction for the 2024 ‘financial word of the year’. We also reflect on the 2023 word prediction, ‘disinflation’, as well as recap the December FOMC meeting, and explain CIO’s rationale for an allocation to US small-cap equities. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell sparked an “everything” rally last week. This prompted the others on the FOMC to dampen the more extreme speculation. New York Fed President Williams (an economist, so deserving of considerable respect) suggested a March cut was not feasible. Markets have retreated in response.

As we make our way through the 2023 holiday shopping season, we take a pulse on the health of the US consumer and what the year ahead might have in store for consumer spend. We also highlight what consumers are spending on and what retailers are reporting. Featured is Sunny Mehra, Consumer Discretionary Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Clearing aside the meaningless noise of sentiment surveys, the data calendar offers insights into global supply and demand for goods.

As 2023 winds down, we look ahead to the policy and legislative priorities of Washington DC in the year ahead, along with update on developments surrounding potential changes to US immigration policy and the scope of recent sanctions announcements by the US government. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office, including Mark Haefele, Leslie Falconio, Themis Themistocleous, and Daniel Kalt, as they outline their New Year’s portfolio resolutions for 2024.

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for Investment Grade Corporate Bonds and where opportunity can be found. Featured is Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, but three rate cuts are forecast for 2024. It is as if Fed members finally read the UBS Year Ahead report. This is not really an easing of policy, however. Real interest rates will be kept more or less stable as US inflation falls, quantitative policy continues to tighten, and regulatory policy may also constrain activity.

Steve Chiavarone stops by the 1285 podcast studio to outline his macro and market expectations for 2024. We also spend time discussing the risks and headwinds facing markets in the new year and where to locate opportunity across multiple asset classes. Steve Chiavarone is the Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, an Equity Strategist, and a Senior Portfolio Manager with Federated Hermes. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve should leave policy unchanged. The meeting will be followed by Fed Chair Powell delivering the full benefit of his economic insight at the press briefing (this should not take long). Powell will try to prevent markets from expecting earlier rate reductions. This task would be a lot easier had Powell not trashed the Fed’s reputation for forward guidance.

As 2024 quickly approaches, our conversation offers perspective on the current market and macro environment heading into year end, as well as what 2024 might have in store for investors. We also spend time discussing asset allocation preferences and positioning ideas. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager, and member of the Global Allocation Team with BlackRock. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US November consumer price inflation is expected to be stable. Economists must act as second-hand car salespeople; used car prices are a volatile (probably declining) component. Record numbers of people were travelling for fun over Thanksgiving (assuming seeing family constitutes fun), which may have raised leisure travel prices. The fantasy of owners’ equivalent rent adds a lot to consumer prices but not to the cost of living.

As we reflect on the year that was, we take inventory of how the ‘year of inflections’ unfolded relative to expectations at the start of 2023, along with examine the inflections that will carry over into 2024. We also preview this week’s central bank meetings and inflation prints. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We recap the final GOP debate ahead of the Iowa caucus in January and reflect on developments up on Capitol Hill as it relates to Congressional testimony of US Bank CEOs and aid for Ukraine. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor with Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Friday’s US employment report was stronger than expected, but the surprises could be revised away in the coming months (US data quality has deteriorated, meaning more revisions). However, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s failure to articulate an economic thought process and consequent mantra of “data dependency” has left markets at the mercy of high frequency data releases of dubious quality.

We close out a busy week by analyzing the November employment report and previewing next week’s Fed policy meeting. Brian provides his take on the health of the US labor market and what the course for monetary policy looks like as we head into 1Q24. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday means it is time for the monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages, and are definitely not wage costs. If wages are stable and the number of low-paid workers in the economy increases, average earnings fall. At a time of structural upheaval, the composition of the workforce is likely to change. The distinction is important because (real) wages matter to consumer spending power, and wage costs matter to profit margins and potentially inflation.

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for preferreds and where opportunity can be found. Featured is Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s November trade data showed stronger exports and weaker imports—an outcome which will help the government to meet this year’s official growth target (always something of an overriding concern in China). The data is difficult to interpret with shifts around friend-shoring and localization. Export growth to the EU remain weak, but exports to the US rose compared to last year. In contrast, US data shows import growth from China falling every month to October.

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for fixed income and where opportunity can be found. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

German October factory orders were weaker—although (being Germany) earlier data was revised stronger. Switching from spending on goods to spending on fun continues. Germany has a strong reputation as an exporter of goods. It has a relatively less strong reputation as an exporter of fun.

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for equities and where opportunity can be found. Featured is David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is a day of rather dubious data ahead. The US job vacancy numbers are based on a survey with a response rate so low it should not really be published. The data also only records a subset of job vacancies, and the collective mid-life crisis experienced by US workers in recent years has distorted the reporting of the numbers.

Our conversation breaks down the factors that matter for the market outlook over the near-term, namely the Fed’s policy course, and explains the drivers behind the recent November ‘everything rally’. We also cover considerations when it comes to positioning over the near-term. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There are reports of missile and drone attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea. There may be a tendency to regard this as an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war, but the attacks seem to be quite small scale and markets are not inclined to price in much additional risk. Oil trade and thus the oil price will be the focus. While container ships were among those targeted, trade in goods continues to slow and is less of a market concern.

With the temporary ceasefire ended, we discuss how the Israel-Hamas War might evolve from here. We also cover some recent developments up on Capitol Hill and reflect on the legacy of late Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We reflect on recent fixed income sector performance and dive into a year-ahead outlook, along with a review of fixed income positioning. Plus, a preview of what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

European and US inflation numbers again surprised the markets by coming in lower than expected. The ending of the 2021–22 transitory inflation was very rapid (in the US, durable goods inflation went from record high to deflation within nine months). It may be that the ending of profit-led inflation is similarly fast. This does, of course, mean that real central bank interest rates are rising more rapidly—and the full effect of past monetary tightening has yet to be felt.

Yesterday’s German and Spanish consumer price inflation was lower than markets had expected, and the figures fit with the idea that profit-led inflation is coming to an end. Profit-led inflation works until it does not—once consumers realize price increases are less about fairness and more about margin expansion, they use the force of their spending power and form a rebel alliance. Companies then have to scramble to shore up customer loyalty.

Kevin Dennean joins us in-studio to explain the opportunity set behind the new Tactical US Equity Theme, ‘Select semis’, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. We also cover the cyclicality of semiconductor revenue growth, industry risks, current demand trends, and more. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Technology and Communications Services Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

We get Spanish and German preliminary November consumer price inflation data today. Spanish data is expected to be stable, with a little more disinflation in Germany. Markets have, perhaps, recently become used to the idea that consumer price inflation surprises by being lower than expected. Durable goods price disinflation and resistance to profit-led inflation should push down on the headline number, but fading energy subsidies should slow disinflation forces in the coming months.

Hosted by Liam McCormick, Senior Strategist, UBS Family Advisory and Philanthropy Services

The extension of the ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war is, of course, primarily a humanitarian concern. Investors may interpret this as lessening the risks that the conflict broadens to the wider region.

After a quiet holiday week, investors are gearing up for the final few weeks of the year. We discuss what this final stretch might have in store for the markets and how that sets the stage for 2024. Plus, thoughts on the US consumer and the holiday spending season. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

ECB President Lagarde testifies before the European Parliament. A central bank head speaking to the legislature is something markets often care about, but we hear so frequently from Lagarde that the chances of her saying anything original are very low.

With US consumers consuming, the day ahead for markets looks subdued. ECB President Lagarde is speaking, but this is the fourth time in two weeks we have heard from Lagarde. It seems unlikely that she will add anything markets care to hear.

US consumers are gearing up for the most important celebration on the national calendar; Black Friday sales. Increasing consumer awareness of profit-led inflation may shift focus from flashy headline discount numbers to the question “is this price lower than it was a year ago?”. Deflation of durable goods means that for big ticket items the answer is probably “yes”.

Since the COVID pandemic of 2020, we’ve entered a new world: One defined by economic, social and political uncertainty - but also profound technological change. 2023 was a historic year for markets. Bond yields reached their highest level in more than 15 years. The first trillion-dollar artificial intelligence company was crowned. And the US economy powered ahead, confounding expectations. What can we expect in the year and decade ahead?

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Central bankers keep stressing rates will stay high—the Federal Reserve minutes signalled much the same message. Markets are not paying attention. There is a sense that central bankers are trying to manipulate the bond market vigilantes—but bond traders are like three-year olds at a party who are high on sugar and will not be controlled. Investors are increasingly looking at the disinflationary details of advanced economy consumer prices and speculating on rate cuts having to come sooner.

Our conversation spotlights the landscape for climate-related lawsuits, including recent developments within California and across the globe. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jonathan Bailey, Global Head of ESG & Impact Investing at Neuberger Berman. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The United States does not have a monopoly on fiscal incoherence. Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court banned shuffling money between different projects, prompting a government spending freeze. The German government may have to look back at 2023 and say “that looks like an emergency”; emergencies allow rules to be broken. Meanwhile the EU seems set to declare that most of the EU is breaking or sort-of breaking fiscal rules.

We take inventory of the drivers behind the recent market momentum, including the October inflation data, as well as outline market expectations over the next six weeks as we begin to close out 2023 and look ahead to the new year. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Dan rejoins the podcast to provide his near-to-medium term outlook for the US economy, monetary policy, and equity markets. We also discuss where Dan is finding opportunity within equities, as well as the risks to be mindful of as we approach the new year and into early 2024. Featured is Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The end of this week marks the most important celebration in US consumers’ calendar—the Black Friday sales. This is primarily focused on US consumers spending money they do not have on things they do not need, but online retail and transnational companies have globalized the event somewhat. This year will be interesting as consumers have shifted in favor of having fun rather than buying stuff.

We discuss takeaways from the APEC Summit, namely as it relates to the mending of US-China relations, the deal reached which averted a shutdown of the US government, and an update on the Israel-Hamas War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We catch-up on the municipal market with Kathleen McNamara for a performance update and outlook. We also outline some portfolio themes and where to find opportunity within the asset class. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Financial Times reports Iranian officials signalled no desire to see the Israel-Hamas war broaden in the region. Markets seem content to assume no wider conflict. Crude oil prices have fallen to levels not seen since the summer.

As we continue with our series of year ahead conversations, Alejo Czerwonko walks you through an outlook for Asia, Latin America, and EMEA. We touch on investment considerations for your portfolio and the risks to be mindful of across the globe. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer with Emerging Markets Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UBS Chief Investment Office has characterized the year ahead as a ‘new world’ - Jason Draho explains what elements have come together to remake the geopolitical sphere and how you should position your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US retail sales reinforced the resilience of the US consumer. That resilience depends on middle-income consumers, and middle-income consumer resilience depends on real spending power being better than headline data suggests. Inflation pressures continue to moderate, and today’s US import price data should show falling prices.

As year-end quickly approaches, we reflect on 2023 performance drivers and preview return expectations over the near-to-medium term. We also provide some thoughts around rate volatility and outline positioning recommendations within the asset class. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets’ reaction to US consumer price inflation reflects Federal Reserve policy failings. There is nothing wrong in markets pricing three rate cuts in 2024—it seems the most likely outcome. But abrupt reactions to a single data release reflects the damage that excessive reliance on “data dependence” can produce.

The unusual and hard-to-explain data for the US economy throughout 2023 has at times puzzled both investors and the markets - might the 2023 macro landscape be indicative of a "Roaring '20s" macro regime? We discuss with Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

October US consumer price inflation headlines have two significant factors. Health insurance calculations are changing and are likely to add to the inflation rate—but of course changing how inflation is calculated does not change inflation reality for consumers. And the fictional owners’ equivalent rent data should contribute less to inflation, again without changing reality.

We outline the latest near-to-medium term market and macro-outlook from the UBS Chief Investment Office, along with the investment case for equities over the next year and the latest Messages in Focus. We also preview this week’s inflation data and discuss whether the Fed and investors will look through potentially hot Q4 inflation data on the expectation for cooler times ahead. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The economic outlook is more or less well behaved. Economic soft (or softish) landings seem on track, with slowing growth and inflation pressures moderating a little faster than expected.

We begin by spotlighting the UBS Veterans Network and how they support our veterans. Shane then reflects on Election Day and discusses the implications of the results, along with several Congressional retirement announcements, to Decision 2024. We also update on the status of talks to avert a shutdown of the US government and provide some takeaways from Secretary of State Blinken’s recent visit to Israel and the region. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Brian recaps what we heard this week from several Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, along with outlines expectations for monetary policy as we head into 2024. Plus, a preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The UK reportedly grew 0% in the third quarter. To any normal person, the difference between 0% and –0.1% growth is not noticeable. For the media, it means that they cannot call this a “recession.” UK growth was slowed by weaker housing activity, with evidence of higher interest rates doing damage.

China’s consumer prices are falling again, and producer prices remain in deflation. The consumer price move is driven by pork prices, which have zero effect outside China. Globally, the consumer prices of imports are mainly about domestic labor costs, so China’s producer price deflation has very limited direct global consequence.

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Enrique Davila, Multi-Asset Investment Specialist.

Economists risk being trampled by the herd of central bankers rushing towards media microphones. Bank of England Governor Bailey and Federal Reserve Chair Powell are both speaking, as are several European Central Bank members. Do investors care what they say? Probably not. Markets are comfortable that monetary policy rates have peaked; central bank speak is unlikely to change that. Any defensive hawkish rhetoric implying rate hikes are possible is likely to be met with a cynical “they would say that, wouldn’t they?”.

Torsten rejoins the podcast for an assessment of how economic conditions in the US have evolved since his prior appearance six months ago, along with a look at how the economy might progress as we head into 2024. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy in the wake of the Nov Fed meeting, the market implications of higher-for-longer, along with how to allocate your portfolio for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US holds elections today. The US election cycle means these are limited in number, but there is a state referendum on abortion rights and hints at the balance of power between Republicans, MAGA Republicans, and Democrats. While markets are unlikely to respond, with 2024 a politically charged year today’s votes are very exciting for political-economic geeks.

In the wake of what was a memorable week in financial markets, with notable moves across equities and treasuries, Jason explains the market moves and what the road ahead for markets might look like, along with how to think about positioning your portfolio accordingly. We also spend time on macro developments, such as the Oct Jobs Report and the Nov FOMC meeting. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Market reactions last week highlight the dangers of central banks bleating about data dependency without explaining their medium-term framework or how they expect policy to transmit to the real economy. It leaves investors tending to react very strongly to individual data items, even when (as with the US employment data) the figures are not precise and will likely be revised significantly.

Volatility has increased in recent weeks as investors digest the latest economic and earnings data, sharp moves in interest rates, the Israel-Hamas war and more. David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, and Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, will break down key market drivers, our outlook moving forward and how to position portfolios.

We touch on Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to Israel and the region, along with efforts from the Biden Administration on crime prevention, limiting China’s access to new chip design technology, and an executive order aimed at cutting risk associated with artificial intelligence. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We recap a busy week that was including a look at the October employment report, takeaways from the Fed’s November policy decision, and an assessment of Q3 corporate earnings reports. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Today is the monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages. When the composition of the labor market shifts, the gap between the two is likely to grow. In other words, it is time for the US employment report. The UK recently admitted that no can trust its labor market data, and it is worth remembering that US non-farm payrolls is based on a survey with a less than 50% response rate.

We discuss an outlook for markets and macro conditions and revisit why you should consider an allocation into alternatives as part of your portfolio strategy in order to achieve portfolio diversification. Featured are Daniel Scansaroli, Head of Portfolio Strategy and UBS Wealth Way Solutions Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dan Villalon, Principal and Co-Head of the Portfolio Solutions Group, AQR Capital Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged—surprising no one. There was no apology for past policy errors or the unnecessary risk premium created by Powell’s lack of a policy framework, but Fed Chair Powell finally seemed to acknowledge this might be the rate peak. Bond markets rallied. Let speculation about rate cuts begin.

Our conversation outlines the opportunity set when it comes to investing in infrastructure, including what to be mindful of as an investor when participating in infrastructure related investments. Featured are Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist for the Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, as well as Brookfield’s Sam Pollock - Sam is Chief Executive Officer of Brookfield’s Infrastructure business and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve meets, with no plausible justification for a rate increase. Slowing price and wage inflation mean that real interest rates continue to rise. A growing economy normally requires liquidity growth, but quantitative tightening is withdrawing liquidity.

Achieving circularity in order avoid material waste is not a one-size-fits all approach for companies - we discuss how companies are effectively achieving circularity, the hurdles that exist, and the scope of global demand for alternative materials, most notably plastic alternatives. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Martin Grosskopf, Vice President & Portfolio Manager with AGF Investments. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We outline the opportunity set for investing in India, along with the trajectory for economic growth and the risk considerations to be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK’s BRC shop price index registered another meaningful amount of disinflation, as the profit-led inflation episode seems to be working towards a conclusion. Food prices in this index do include the discounts of supermarkets’ dual pricing structure, and those are not in consumer price data, so the slowing of the food sub index will be greater than the disinflation of the official numbers.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Adam Scheiner, Senior Portfolio Manager, Private Client US Equity Team and Portfolio Manager on the UBS Tactical US Themes portfolio, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

The week ahead will deliver investors a lot of information to digest, accounting for central bank policy meetings, economic data and numerous Q3 corporate earnings results. We discuss what is most relevant, what could move markets, and how to be positioned accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The word “recession” is a curse cast on the economics profession. There is no formal, universal definition. The media’s obsession with “two consecutive quarters of negative growth” is increasingly meaningless in the modern world. Output economic measures like GDP depend on how many people are working, and how hard those people are working. Thus, countries with declining populations are more likely to have falling GDP, but are not more likely to have falling living standards.

Our conversation provides some background on the newly elected Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, along with a look at his agenda priorities in the months ahead. We also update on the Israel-Hamas War and what the weeks ahead might have in store. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation addresses ongoing rate volatility and the impact to other asset classes, such as equities. We also touch on a Q3 earnings update, and a recap of this week’s notable macro data releases. Plus, we preview the week ahead and the November Fed meeting. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

When the economic history of the early 21st century comes to be written, the opening sentence in a bold font should be “never go short the hedonism of the US consumer”. Middle-income consumers have lower inflation than consumer price data implies, giving them more spending power. Historically, this would have sent them flocking to the shopping mall—nowadays, they are spending enough at Taylor Swift concerts to reportedly make the singer a billionaire.

Vincent joins us to discuss the impact rate volatility has had to the broader markets and how conditions might evolve from here. We also discuss the prospects for a recession to occur in the US, an outlook for monetary policy, and considerations when it comes to positioning across fixed Income and equities. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer, Amundi. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US releases the first guess of third-quarter GDP—less than half the data used in the final estimate is available today. Recent UK and European GDP revisions have changed their growth narratives in recent years. Historically, first estimates are revised over one percentage point (up or down), so today’s number is not precise.

China has announced a fiscal stimulus, increasing the deficit limit from 3% to 3.8% of GDP. The money is focused on infrastructure spending. China was expected to meet this year’s growth target of around 5%. The rush to stimulate at this point in the year suggests concern about growth momentum in 2024, or a worry that living standard reality is not as good as the reported GDP figures imply.

We discuss the implications of higher US rates to emerging market equity returns, along with considerations when it comes to positioning. We also touch on opportunities within India and update on China’s economy. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the recent rate volatility and road ahead for monetary policy. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Vishal Khanduja, Co-Head of Broad Markets Fixed Income, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

The data calendar is littered with business sentiment opinion polls today. In the world of soundbite economics, the sensationalism these surveys offer means they get more attention than they deserve. The US ISM manufacturing survey has reported a slump and now a recovery this year—the reality is that manufacturing output has been dull and stable. German manufacturing sentiment signals dire activity levels, but manufacturing sales have been more stagnant than collapsing.

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, and Alina Golant, Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist, Sangeeta Marfatia, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

The inter-relationships between economic growth, interest rates, and the Fed are critical for the investment outlook, yet there's not much clarity on them right now. We discuss what catalysts might deliver some clarity in the days and weeks ahead, what is all means for the markets, and how you should think about positioning your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We recap the week that was, including reflections on the first major week of Q3 earnings reports, thoughts on this week’s Fed speak, and takeaways from the Beige Book release. Plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation updates you on the latest developments, including President Biden’s visit to Israel and takeaways from his Oval Office address to the nation. We also update on the House Speaker search and what the days ahead up on Capitol Hill might have in store. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The latest babble from Federal Reserve members gave bond investors reason to hope rate hikes are finished. Bond yields have retraced some of their recent increase. The swings in the bond market, in the absence of a coherent policy framework, add an avoidable risk premium to real interest rates which has economic consequences.

Since early May 10-year Treasury yields have risen from 3.3% to 4.8%, with around half of that increase coming since the start of September. Some investors have certainly found recent yield movements intimidating. Are the bond vigilantes back? And what are the bond markets telling us about growth, inflation, and policy rates from here? In our CIO Livestream, we discuss why, where, and how to put money to work today.

No fewer than seven members of the Federal Reserve speak today. Some are highly qualified economists who grasp the complex structural upheaval affecting the US economy. Fed Chair Powell is also speaking. The initial success in talking down bond yields has reversed. The Powell Fed’s data dependency means markets overreact to every data release, and the farce on Capitol Hill makes things worse.

An explosion at a hospital in Gaza has subtly shifted financial markets’ response to the Israel-Hamas war. Initially markets gave little weight to the risk of a wider conflict. Since the explosion, the Palestinian, Egyptian, and Jordanian leaders have cancelled meetings with US President Biden. While safe-haven flows still seem to be muted, the gold price is now back in the range seen over the summer, and oil prices have moved a little higher.

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Tom Digenan, Head of Multi-Asset Investment Specialists.

We expand on an outlook for long-term treasury yields in the months ahead, and preview next month’s Fed policy meeting, along with provide a look at the opportunity set for high yield in a portfolio and overall positioning recommendations within fixed income. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Alina Golant, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK delayed some labor market data on concerns over quality. This is a growing global problem. Structural change and the fact that no one answers survey questions mean data is steadily less reliable in real time. With the Federal Reserve and the ECB both using data dependency rather than formulating an economic framework, there is a risk of greater volatility around policy expectations.

We discuss what has contributed to the rise of long-term treasury yields and how the move has impacted other asset classes, namely equities. We also touch on CIO’s current market outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Exit polls from Poland’s general election suggest the pro-EU opposition parties will have sufficient seats to form the next government. The final result may not be known until tomorrow. If polls reflect reality, this removes a potential source of financial markets uncertainty, reducing the risk of further division in the EU. Other divisions remain in place.

In the wake of the devastating attacks on Israel this past weekend, we discuss what the response has consisted of and what to expect in the coming weeks. We also update on the search for US House Speaker and outline the implications to legislative progress on Capitol Hill. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affair Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation previews expectations from the 3Q23 corporate earnings season, along with recaps the September FOMC meeting minutes. We also touch on the drivers behind recent equity market momentum and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US headline consumer price inflation rose, but the details hint at weakening pricing power and support for a soft economic landing. Most market-determined prices are softening. Durable goods deflation continues. The fairy tale of owners’ equivalent rent, where statisticians pretend people pay themselves an ever-rising monthly rent to live in the houses they own, was the main driver of higher prices.

Listen to the authors of the 2023 Year-End Guide, Jennifer Lan and Premini Scandurra as they share their thoughts on some selected planning ideas from the guide. Jennifer is a Senior Wealth Strategist based in Dallas, TX, and Prem is a Wealth Strategist based in Los Angeles, CA. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We discuss the drivers behind recent performance of the muni markets, along with a performance outlook, and highlight some portfolio themes to consider. Plus, spotlight performance of leveraged closed-end funds and what to expect in the months ahead. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, and Sangeeta Marfatia, Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US consumer price inflation requires economists to become second-hand car dealers by proxy—the volatility of used car prices explains a lot of inflation uncertainty. Developed economies have experienced three inflation waves: transitory durable goods price inflation has been deflation since December 2022; energy prices are less disinflationary, but crude prices have moved more than consumer prices; profit-led inflation is under pressure as consumers rebel, but some sectors may still expand margin.

Featured are Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Robert Giangregorio, Portfolio Manager, Spectrum Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is not the best time for the US House of Representatives to be paralyzed. Voting for a speaker is expected today—markets are not, perhaps, expecting an edifying spectacle. Investors’ main concern is whether the government shuts down on 17 November. This might possibly be avoided even without a speaker in place, but not having a speaker adds risk to markets.

Our conversation recaps a recent string of key economic data releases and what they’re revealing about the state of the US economy, along with how the data might influence monetary policy in the months the come. We also discuss how the data has been influencing recent market conditions, and how the market environment might progress through year-end. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear the current investment views, allocation recommendations and market outlook from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featuring David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

US 10-year Treasury yields have fallen back to the levels of about a week ago. There are two narratives seeking to explain this—a safe-haven bid from Middle East violence, or more dovish comment from Federal Reserve members. The muted currency market response suggests it may be more about Fed expectations. Five members of the Fed are jostling one another for the media spotlight today.

Hamas’ attacks in Israel weakened the shekel and increased oil prices. The Bank of Israel pledged to intervene in the foreign exchange markets and provide dollar liquidity to domestic banks. There is little sign of a broad safe-haven bid for the dollar, at this stage. Investors’ concerns about an escalation of the conflict to include Iran have prompted oil price moves.

Our conversation offers thoughts and reflections on the latest employment report and health of the US labor market, along with a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

This is your monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages, and wages are not labor costs. There is only a weak link from average earnings to inflation pressures from labor costs. Otherwise, it is US employment report Friday—a survey that has been declining in quality in recent years, but which is still a market obsession. Because the US Federal Reserve is a reactive institution, today’s report will impact monetary policy expectations. The skew in market forecasts is for a weaker number.

Following a historic past few days up on Capitol Hill, we provide some background on how the series of events came to be and discuss the next-steps. We also touch on the political implications and what to expect next as we approach the November deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation addresses the global impact, on both a human and economic scale, of diabetes and obesity, along with the innovations and therapies being developed to combat these diseases. Featured is Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the last few days, we have seen bonds sell off, then rally, and the oil price has suddenly plunged USD 5 per barrel. Equities have swung back and forth. What is going on? This, in short, is what happens when economists are not in charge.

With yet another Presidential election cycle underway, the UBS Chief Investment Office has launched the ElectionWatch publication series to keep you informed on the progression of ‘Decision 2024’. We spend time outlining key policy priorities, provide tips for investors on how to navigate the cycle, and more. Plus, a timely look into this week’s historic developments within the US House of Representatives, and what the next several weeks might have in store leading up to the November deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government. Featured is Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Members of the US Congress are now incapable of doing anything. Financial markets are not surprised that members of the US Congress are incapable of doing anything. Former Speaker McCarthy confirmed he will not run again for Speaker. Investors only care whether House Republicans can get the extreme wing under control long enough to elect a speaker before the next government shutdown in mid-November.

We reflect on developments from over the past two weeks, such as notable economic data releases, the September FOMC meeting, and the sharp rise in longer maturity interest rates, and the impacts being felt across financial markets. We also touch on a market outlook and recommendations when it comes to asset allocation. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK British Retail Consortium reported “fierce competition” (otherwise known as “competition”) driving falling food prices. Profit-led inflation, which tends to occur at the end of supply chains, may be in decline. Competition did not lower prices earlier, because consumers were sold a story that oil prices, global shortages, or the war in Ukraine caused inflation. Consumers are not now prepared to believe those stories, and profits and prices are under pressure.

The US government shutdown has been delayed—but in the meantime, journalists and (more importantly) economists have had to waste time analyzing this nonsense. The uncertainty the fiscal farce periodically creates also carries an economic cost.

We recap the week that was, including performance across fixed income markets, an update on negotiations to avert a shutdown of the US government, and more. Plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Japan’s disinflation was on display with the Tokyo consumer price measure for September. As ever, local factors are important (service sector inflation was softened by weaker hotel prices, for instance). Retail sales seem to have a slowing momentum, which may keep domestically determined inflation pressures in check.

With the deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government only a few days away, Shane brings us up to speed on the latest as to where negotiations stand and how the next few days might unfold. We also touch on the impact of a government shutdown to services and the potential duration. Plus, takeaways from the second GOP Presidential debate. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

German and Spanish preliminary September consumer price inflation is due. Energy prices are a focus of course, but transitory durable goods price inflation should continue to exert disinflation pressure. Controlling profit-led inflation pressures were an early focus in Spain, and will naturally be a fading disinflation force. They are still an issue in Germany.

We touch on takeaways from the 2023 voter proxy season, the overall health of the ESG, Sustainable fund landscape, as well as sustainability themes to consider for your portfolio. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Officer, and Dan Roarty, Chief Investment Officer for Sustainable Thematic Equities at AllianceBernstein. Host: Daniel Cassidy