Peter Schiff is an economist, financial broker/dealer, author, frequent guest on national news, and host of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast. The podcast focuses on weekly economic data analysis and unbiased coverage of financial news, both in the U.S. and global markets. As entertaining as he is informative, Peter packs decades of brilliant insight into every news item. Join the thousands of fans who have benefited from Peter's commitment to getting the real story out to the world.
Gold and Silver Are Poised to Melt Up - Ep 985
Gold rises, Fed policies, inflation, QE, Trump, Bitcoin, BRICS, debt.Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldSign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldPeter Schiff delves into recent economic developments and market trends, returning from the Orlando Money Show to share his insights. He discusses the significant rise in gold and silver prices, the unexpected increase in long-term bond yields following the Fed's rate cuts, and critiques of mainstream media narratives about the economy's strength. Schiff argues that underlying economic conditions are weaker than reported, leading to higher inflation and growing budget deficits. He touches on the sell-off in U.S. treasury bonds, the BRICS Summit's implications for the dollar, and the illusion of wealth created by inflation. Schiff analyzes Donald Trump's economic policies, including the potential for a 'Trump dump' on Bitcoin and the harms of new tax schemes and tariffs. He concludes by advocating for an honest default on debt to avoid hyperinflation, highlighting the need for realistic economic solutions to manage the impending crisis effectively.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff01:03 Introduction and Market Update01:42 Gold and Silver Price Surge04:45 Impact of Fed Rate Cuts07:24 Economic Indicators and Job Market Analysis08:35 Inflation and Bond Market Dynamics10:39 Gold Market Trends and Predictions26:47 Trump's Influence on Markets33:16 Understanding Direct and Indirect Taxes33:53 Trump's Tariffs and the BRICS Summit34:39 Impact of Tariffs on the Dollar36:44 Global Shift Away from the Dollar43:30 Paul Tudor Jones on Inflation and Debt48:57 The Looming Debt Crisis57:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts#GoldMarket #Inflation #EconomyPredictionPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/23/2024 • 56 minutes, 1 second
Investors and Gamblers Are Betting on Trump - Ep 984
Stock and Bitcoin trends, Fed's influence on metal prices, policy impacts on economy, and tariff effects on manufacturing.For 20% off your Momentous order, head to https://livemomentous.com and use code GOLD.Get $20 credit by being one of the first 500 traders. https://kalshi.com/goldPeter provides a comprehensive analysis of the current economic and political landscape. Beginning with the record highs in the Dow Jones and the booming interest in Bitcoin, Peter attributes market optimism to Donald Trump's rising poll numbers and potential tax cuts. He critiques the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and their long-term implications on interest rates and the U.S. dollar. Peter dives into the disconnect between rising long-term interest rates and stable gold prices, and highlights the growing interest in Bitcoin among traders.He also scrutinizes Kamala Harris's faltering poll numbers and her economic proposals, arguing against government intervention in business funding and advocating for free-market solutions. Delving deeper, Peter discusses the negative impact of tariffs and the decline of American manufacturing, urging for deregulation and tax cuts. Concluding with a discussion on the hidden costs of tariffs, taxes, and government spending.Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and Orlando Money Show Announcement01:51 Market Trends and New Highs02:42 The Trump Trade and Bitcoin09:38 Gold and Silver Market Analysis17:48 Oil Prices and Political Influence20:46 African American Vote and Political Strategies33:31 The Flawed Business Model33:52 Unconstitutional Programs and Racial Criteria36:34 The Problem with Government Funding38:44 Occupational Licensing Laws42:34 Tariffs and Economic Misconceptions45:58 The Decline of American Manufacturing51:12 The Real Impact of Tariffs53:58 The History and Consequences of Taxation57:32 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/15/2024 • 54 minutes, 50 seconds
You Can’t Depend on Politically Crafted Government Data - Ep 983
Critiquing job reports. Questioning the Fed. Scrutinizing data. Inflation methods. Political motives. State preparedness.Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldLaughing Cats - GYB OFFICIAL MUSIC VIDEO: https://youtu.be/dSdTZ3judPs?feature=sharedSchiff critically examines the recent jobs report, labeling it as misleading and detailing the implications of government employment statistics. He questions the significance of the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest cuts, given what he considers unreliable government data. Schiff delves into the complexities of inflation reports, expressing skepticism on the methodologies for calculating inflation and unemployment. He also addresses the political motivations behind such statistics. Emphasizing Milton Friedman’s perspective, Schiff highlights government spending as the true measure of taxation and inflation. Additionally, he critiques the inefficiencies of FEMA and advocates for state-level emergency preparedness. Schiff touches on his wife's new music project and encourages support for her band, 'Laughing Cats.' The episode wraps up with Schiff’s comments on upcoming content and a holiday observance note.Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/11/2024 • 57 minutes, 51 seconds
Government Hiring Spree Means Higher Taxes and Inflation - Ep 982
The September Jobs Report: A Deeper Dive into Government Hiring and Market ImplicationsCut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold. $45 upfront payment required. For new customers on the first 3 month plan only. Get $20 credit by being one of the first 500 traders. https://kalshi.com/goldPeter unpacks the September jobs report, highlighting the surprising surge in government hiring amidst looming elections. He questions the authenticity and timing of these figures, suggesting political motivations behind the data boost for the Biden-Harris administration. Peter contrasts private versus government job creation, explaining the economic implications of these new roles funded by taxpayers. As he laments the service sector's dominance and the fading strength of manufacturing, he predicts post-election job revisions. Peter also advises against broad faith in market indicators and reiterates the urgency of investing in gold and silver stocks, casting a skeptical eye on Bitcoin's faltering performance compared to gold. Overall, he stands firm against superficial economic narratives, advocating for practical investment strategies informed by a realistic outlook.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffTimestamps:00:42 Jobs Report and Political Implications04:18 Analyzing the Jobs Data09:57 Government vs. Private Sector Jobs14:53 Economic Consequences of Government Hiring25:08 Labor Market Developments and Automation32:51 Employer Liability and Automation34:22 Market Reactions and Fed Rate Cuts36:20 Oil Prices and Inflation Concerns37:51 Manufacturing Recession and Service Sector Strength45:49 Gold and Silver Market Dynamics52:59 Emerging Markets and Investment Opportunities54:23 Bitcoin's Bear Market Analysis57:28 Conclusion and Final Thoughts#jobsreport #governmentjobs #inflationPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/5/2024 • 55 minutes, 14 seconds
Government Stimulus Is Inflation in Disguise - Ep 981
Gold reaches record highs, silver follows. Market reactions, inflation concerns, Fed's policies, and economic predictions Get an extra 3 months free. https://expressvpn.com/goldGet $20 credit by being one of the first 500 traders. https://kalshi.com/goldPeter discusses the new all-time records set by gold and silver, highlights the puzzling behavior of gold mining stocks, and criticizes the mainstream financial media's understanding of inflation and Federal Reserve policies. He elaborates on the significant data from the Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core PCE, revealing how it misrepresents the true state of inflation. Peter also explains why the Fed's strategy is misguided and suggests that persistent inflation will lead to an eventual return to QE. He ties in how geopolitical moves, like China's recent stimulus announcement, and domestic factors, including Saudi Arabia's oil production strategy, influence market dynamics. Furthermore, Peter argues for the importance of investing in gold and silver as he predicts a substantial increase in their value due to ongoing economic missteps by the Fed.Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Ethos: ethoslife.com/GOLD* Check out The Moorings: moorings.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/28/2024 • 53 minutes, 19 seconds
Fed Caves With Aggressive Rate Cut - Ep 980
FOMC Rate Cut Analysis: Fed's Decision, Market Reactions, and Economic RealitiesPeter Schiff analyzes the highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut following the two-day FOMC meeting, emphasizing its effects on the markets and broader economy. He critiques Jerome Powell's justification for the 50 basis points cut, the Fed's stance on inflation, and the true state of employment in the U.S. Schiff also discusses the contradictions in Trump's and Harris's economic promises, their implications for future fiscal policies, and the potential consequences for the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and the overall economy. He highlights the ongoing issues with the national debt and the risks of price controls. Additionally, Schiff advises on investment strategies, including gold, silver, and international equities, amid the anticipated economic downturn.Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/gold🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff01:39 Market Reactions and Predictions02:36 Inflation and Price Controls Discussion05:11 Trump's Economic Policies and Price Controls08:53 Interest Rates and Economic Indicators16:37 Fed's Rate Cut and Market Impact28:19 Questioning the Strength of the Economy29:01 The Fed's Balance Sheet Dilemma30:01 Historical Perspective on Interest Rates33:33 The Recession and Rising Interest Rates38:27 Trump's Economic Promises and Criticisms47:13 Preparing for the Economic Collapse51:09 Investment Strategies for the Future53:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts#FOMCMeeting #InterestRates #EconomicOutlookPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/19/2024 • 53 minutes, 54 seconds
Gold Soars as The Fed Readies Rate Cuts - Ep 979
Market Analysis, Gold Surge, and Personal AnnouncementPeter Schiff discusses the stock markets' performance on Friday the 13th, noting that while major indexes ended on a positive note, the only asset to hit a new all-time high was gold. He interrupts the usual podcast to announce his wife Lauren's new music duo, 'The Laughing Cats,' and their debut album, 'Funny Money,' highlighting the first single 'G.Y.B.' now available on Spotify. Peter then resumes, detailing gold's significant rise to new record highs and contrasting it with the stock market's performance in terms of gold pricing. He also critiques the U.S. budget deficit, discusses potential economic impacts of the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut, and assesses the presidential debates, focusing on issues of tariffs and tax cuts. Peter emphasizes the investment potential of gold and gold stocks amidst the current economic landscape.Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/gold 🎶 New single from Laughing Cats out today: https://open.spotify.com/artist/2f3z6IPGfomCl9FsJeyb8d?si=9morm92NRdikGW3hbt0iPA🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff00:25 Stock Market and Gold Performance00:46 Announcement: The Laughing Cats' New Album04:48 Gold's Record Highs and Market Analysis17:25 Bitcoin and Oil Market Insights22:46 Inflation and Federal Reserve Rate Cuts26:22 CPI and PPI Data Analysis32:56 Wall Street's Call for Rate Cuts33:27 Record-Breaking Budget Deficit36:07 Economic Weakness and Job Statistics37:26 Presidential Debate Analysis43:32 Tax Cut Promises and Economic Realities48:23 Tariffs and Their Impact54:43 The Illusion of Tax Cuts01:00:20 Conclusion and Investment Advice#goldprice #investmenttips #stockmarketanalysisOur Sponsors:* Check out Ethos: ethoslife.com/GOLD* Check out The Moorings: moorings.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/14/2024 • 1 hour, 19 seconds
Financial Markets Back on the Brink of Collapse - Ep 978
Market Turmoil & Economic Uncertainty: A Deep Dive into Non-Farm Payroll Report and Fed PoliciesIn this episode, we explore today's weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report and its impact on the markets. Despite a brief improvement in stock indices following rate cut expectations, concerns loom as markets question whether a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut is forthcoming. The podcast dissects the current state of the labor market, the potential Fed actions, and the implications for tech stocks, gold stocks, cryptocurrencies, and overall market dynamics. We also delve into the historical context, drawing parallels to the financial crisis of 2008 and discussing the looming recession and inflation threats.Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at NetSuite.com/GOLD🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#stockmarket #inflation #cryptocurrencyOur Sponsors:* Check out Ethos: ethoslife.com/GOLD* Check out The Moorings: moorings.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/7/2024 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 38 seconds
Making Lemonade Out of Economic Lemons - Ep 977
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold. $45 upfront payment required. For new customers on the first 3 month plan only. 🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Ethos: ethoslife.com/GOLD* Check out The Moorings: moorings.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/2/2024 • 54 minutes, 43 seconds
The Fed Makes Its Biggest Mistake Yet - Ep 976
Market Turmoil, Political Drama, and Economic ForecastsPeter delves into a tumultuous week in the markets and politics. He covers key events including Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech and its implications for interest rate cuts, the Democratic National Convention, and Robert Kennedy Jr.'s decision to drop out and endorse Donald Trump. Peter argues that the Federal Reserve is pivoting from fighting inflation to addressing rising unemployment, critiques the state of unemployment statistics and job market data, and discusses the potential for a gold price boom amidst a weakening dollar. Additionally, Peter offers in-depth commentary on the flaws in government spending and social security, the misrepresentations in political narratives, and explores future economic outlooks. He closes with a call to invest in gold and gold stocks.NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. http://netsuite.com/gold🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out The Moorings: moorings.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/24/2024 • 55 minutes, 3 seconds
Gold Breaks $2,500. Harris Would Send it to the Moon - Ep 975
Unprecedented Gold Highs and Underlying Market DynamicsPeter discusses the historic rise of gold prices, which closed above $2,500 per ounce for the first time. He contrasts the performance of gold with that of Bitcoin, highlighting gold's significant growth since the start of the century. Peter also explores the underwhelming response of gold mining stocks to gold's record highs and predicts a bullish future for gold prices and mining stocks. Additionally, he critiques potential economic policies of Kamala Harris, cautioning that they may lead to increased inflation. Peter urges listeners to invest in gold, silver, and mining stocks, emphasizing the importance of proactive investment to mitigate inflationary risks.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Ethos: ethoslife.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/17/2024 • 55 minutes, 23 seconds
Inflation Data Supports Rate Hikes, Not Rate Cuts - Ep 974
Peter Schiff dissects the latest inflation data, emphasizing the government's manipulation in underreporting true inflation figures. He compares the July CPI and PPI reports, suggesting real inflation rates could be double the official numbers.Schiff highlights the significant federal budget deficit and its implications for future inflation. He argues that the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut is politically driven and could backfire.Schiff also discusses the repercussions of government policies on industries like solar energy, resulting in SunPower's bankruptcy. He critiques government intervention in housing, education, and healthcare, asserting these measures have increased costs and decreased efficiency.Lastly, Schiff commends Elon Musk's take on inflation and calls for substantial reductions in government spending and more market-driven solutions.⭐️ Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Ethos: ethoslife.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/15/2024 • 55 minutes, 42 seconds
Bank of Japan Rescues the Markets... For Now - Ep 973
⭐️ NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/gold🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com📈 Invest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/invest🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Ethos: ethoslife.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/12/2024 • 57 minutes, 29 seconds
Will There Be an Emergency Rate Cut to Avert a Crash? - Ep 972
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold. $45 upfront payment required. For new customers on the first 3 month plan only. Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Ethos: ethoslife.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/3/2024 • 55 minutes, 44 seconds
Bitcoin Faction Exposes the Evils of Democracy - Ep 971
NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/goldVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/26/2024 • 53 minutes, 49 seconds
Trump Is a Living American Folk Hero That No Democrat Can Beat - Ep 970
Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldNetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/goldSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comInvest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/investFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/21/2024 • 50 minutes, 52 seconds
Trump Dodged a Bullet, but Economy Won’t Be So Lucky - Ep 969
Visit https:/indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comInvest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/investBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/15/2024 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 40 seconds
Bad News for Biden and the Economy - Ep 968
NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/goldSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comInvest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/investBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/8/2024 • 56 minutes, 48 seconds
Biden Bombs Bigly - Ep 967
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold. $45 upfront payment required.For new customers on the first 3 month plan only. Thanks Constant Contact. Start GROWING your business today with a free trial at https://constantcontact.comSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comInvest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/investBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out BetterHelp : betterhelp.com/GOLD* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/29/2024 • 56 minutes, 21 seconds
New Inflationary Government Program Subverts Fed - Ep 966
NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/gold🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com📈 Invest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/invest📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out BetterHelp : betterhelp.com/GOLD* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/24/2024 • 55 minutes, 39 seconds
Fed Fakes Inflation Fight as Pretext for Future Cuts - Ep 965
Get an additional 15% off an annual membership at https://masterclass.com/goldVisit https:/indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com📈 Invest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/invest📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/15/2024 • 52 minutes, 41 seconds
Did China Just Sucker Investors Out of Their Gold? - Ep 964
NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/gold🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com📈 Invest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/invest📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/10/2024 • 56 minutes, 4 seconds
Biden Is the Real Felon, Not Trump - Ep 963
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold. $45 upfront payment required. For new customers on the first 3 month plan only.Thanks Constant Contact. Start GROWING your business today with a free trial at https://constantcontact.com🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com📈 Invest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/invest🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Yahoo Finance: finance.yahoo.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/3/2024 • 1 hour, 46 seconds
Is the Money in Your Pocket Counterfeit? - Ep 962
During an unexpected podcast episode from The Bahamas, Peter Schiff discusses the significant breakout in silver prices, reaching the highest since 2013, and the new record highs in gold. He elaborates on central banks' preference for gold over silver and the retail selling trend, emphasizing an opportunity to buy both metals after a correction. Schiff points out the ineffectiveness of the Fed's statements and actions on the true value of gold and silver, suggesting that prices will rise regardless of rate cuts. He uses historical experiences and the transition from real silver coins to nickel-clad copper as an example of government devaluation of currency. Schiff highlights the potential in buying physical silver, especially 'junk silver', for its barter value and the current low premiums as an investment opportunity. He also touches on the importance of investing in gold and silver mining stocks, recommending professional guidance for navigating the sector.NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/goldGet an additional 15% off an annual membership at https://masterclass.com/gold🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com📈 Invest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/invest🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out BetterHelp : betterhelp.com/GOLD* Check out DeleteMe: joindeleteme.com/GOLD* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLD* Check out Yahoo Finance: finance.yahoo.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/23/2024 • 56 minutes, 32 seconds
Tariffs and Inflation Are Taxes - Ep 961
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/gold🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com📈 Invest like Peter: https://schiffradio.com/invest🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out BetterHelp : betterhelp.com/GOLD* Check out DeleteMe: joindeleteme.com/GOLD* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLD* Check out Yahoo Finance: finance.yahoo.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/17/2024 • 56 minutes, 18 seconds
Abolish the US Council of Economic Advisers - Ep 960
NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/goldJoin Peter on the Annual Investor Summit at Sea! Get the details and reserve your spot at https://InvestorSummitAtSea.comJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Harry's : harrys.com/GOLDPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/13/2024 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 37 seconds
Dovish Fed Rescues Markets - Ep 959
Get an additional 15% off an annual membership at https://masterclass.com/goldCut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold. $45 upfront payment required. For new customers on the first 3 month plan only.Join my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiff Our Sponsors:* Check out Yahoo Finance: finance.yahoo.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/6/2024 • 1 hour, 31 seconds
The Secret Word Is Stagflation - Ep 958
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out BetterHelp : betterhelp.com/GOLD* Check out Yahoo Finance: finance.yahoo.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/27/2024 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 13 seconds
Rotating From Growth & Bitcoin to Value & Gold - Ep 957
NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/goldCheck out the exclusive discounts for my audience https://neolightbed.comJoin Peter on the Annual Investor Summit at Sea! Get the details and reserve your spot at https://InvestorSummitAtSea.comJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiff Our Sponsors:* Check out Yahoo Finance: finance.yahoo.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/21/2024 • 56 minutes, 2 seconds
The Gold Canary Didn’t Die of Natural Causes - Ep 956
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Register for The 2024 MoneyShow in Miami, FL (April 10-12): https://www.miamisymposium.com/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/?scode=062042Join Peter on the Annual Investor Summit at Sea! Get the details and reserve your spot at https://InvestorSummitAtSea.comJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiff Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/12/2024 • 58 minutes, 7 seconds
Any News Is Good News for Gold - Ep 955
NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/goldRegister for The 2024 MoneyShow in Miami, FL (April 10-12): https://www.miamisymposium.com/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/?scode=062042Join Peter on the Annual Investor Summit at Sea! Get the details and reserve your spot at https://InvestorSummitAtSea.comJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiff Our Sponsors:* Listen to NerdWallet’s Smart Money PODCAST on your favorite PODCAST app. “Future You” will thank you.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/6/2024 • 49 minutes, 9 seconds
Everyday Is April Fools' Day, for Most Investors - Ep 954
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold. $45 upfront payment required. For new customers on the first 3 month plan only.Register for The 2024 MoneyShow in Miami, FL (April 10-12): https://www.miamisymposium.com/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/?scode=062042Join Peter on the Annual Investor Summit at Sea! Get the details and reserve your spot at https://InvestorSummitAtSea.comJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Listen to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast on your favorite podcast app. “Future You” will thank you.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/2/2024 • 54 minutes, 37 seconds
🔴 Get Ready for an Inflation Bloodbath - Ep 953
NetSuite is offering a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program. https://netsuite.com/goldVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Listen to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast on your favorite podcast app. “Future You” will thank you.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/21/2024 • 57 minutes, 21 seconds
Resurgent Inflation Will Surprise Investors and Rattle Markets - Ep 952
Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Listen to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast on your favorite podcast app. “Future You” will thank you.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/14/2024 • 43 minutes, 52 seconds
Biden and Powell Do America, Part 2 - Ep 951
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring nowJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiff Our Sponsors:* Listen to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast on your favorite podcast app. “Future You” will thank you.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/11/2024 • 56 minutes, 43 seconds
Gold's Breakout Signals Monetary Policy Too Loose - Ep 950
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Listen to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast on your favorite podcast app. “Future You” will thank you.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/7/2024 • 46 minutes, 24 seconds
Bitcoin Mania Creates Golden Opportunity - Ep 949
Cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldCheck out the exclusive discounts for my audience at https://neolightbed.comRegister for The 2024 MoneyShow in Miami, FL (April 10-12): https://www.miamisymposium.com/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/?scode=062042Join my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiff Our Sponsors:* Listen to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast on your favorite podcast app. “Future You” will thank you.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/1/2024 • 53 minutes, 9 seconds
A Tale of Two Stocks - Ep 948
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldhttps://factormeal.com/goldpeter50 and use code goldpeter50 to get 50% offJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/23/2024 • 59 minutes, 33 seconds
Inflation Threat Is Graver Than Investors Realize - Ep 947
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring nowCheck out the exclusive discounts for my audience at https://neolightbed.comRegister for The 2024 MoneyShow in Miami, FL (April 10-12): https://www.miamisymposium.com/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/?scode=062042Join my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/14/2024 • 54 minutes, 16 seconds
When Jerome Powell Talks, People Shouldn't Listen - Ep 946
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring nowOne-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/7/2024 • 56 minutes, 9 seconds
Another BS Jobs Report From the Gov't - Ep 945
Check out the exclusive discounts for my audience at https://neolightbed.comJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/3/2024 • 50 minutes, 37 seconds
Powell Rains on March Rate Cut Parade - Ep 944
Cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/1/2024 • 50 minutes, 41 seconds
Despite the Data, Economy May Already Be in Recession - Ep 943
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldhttps://factormeals.com/goldpeter50 and use code goldpeter50 to get 50% offJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficOur Sponsors:* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/27/2024 • 54 minutes, 42 seconds
Markets Are Poised to Confound Investors - Ep 942
Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldRegister for The Microcap Conference at https://themicrocapconference.comJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/20/2024 • 54 minutes, 31 seconds
Jobs and Inflation and Bitcoin, Oh My! - Ep 941
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring nowOne-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/12/2024 • 56 minutes, 4 seconds
2024 Surprises Will Be Greater Than in 2023 - Ep 940
Join my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/30/2023 • 1 hour, 38 seconds
Did the Fed Just Steal the Santa Claus Rally? - Ep 939
Go to https://joindeleteme.com/gold and use promo code GOLD for 20% off.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/gold.Join my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/21/2023 • 58 minutes, 17 seconds
Fed Tempers Rate Cut Enthusiasm - Ep 938
Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/gold.Join my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/16/2023 • 54 minutes, 15 seconds
The Fed Finally Surrenders; Inflation Wins - Ep 937
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/14/2023 • 57 minutes, 28 seconds
Just Another Hyped Up Jobs Report - Ep 936
Visit htttps://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Pete Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/9/2023 • 48 minutes, 18 seconds
Fed Gov't Argues for Unlimited Taxing Power Before the Supreme Court - Ep 935
Go to https://joindeleteme.com/gold and use promo code GOLD for 20% off.Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/gold.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/6/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 42 seconds
Gold Breaks Out to a New Record High - Ep 934
Go to https://joindeleteme.com/gold and use promo code GOLD for 20% off.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/2/2023 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 13 seconds
I Won My Defamation Lawsuit in Australia - Ep 933
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/29/2023 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 3 seconds
A Soft Landing Is Impossible - Ep 932
Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldGo to https://oxyhelp.com – Tell them Peter Schiff sent you and get 10% off your hyperbaric chamberJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/18/2023 • 55 minutes, 29 seconds
Reports of Inflation’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated - Ep 931
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/15/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 5 seconds
Investor Optimism at Odds With Reality - Ep 930
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Go to https://oxyhelp.com – Tell them Peter Schiff sent you and get 10% off your hyperbaric chamberJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/11/2023 • 56 minutes, 15 seconds
Fed Won’t Achieve Either Mandate - Ep 929
Get an extra 3 months free. https://expressvpn.com/goldSign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/gold Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/6/2023 • 56 minutes, 11 seconds
The National Debt Is the Scariest Halloween Costume - Ep 928
Go to https://joindeleteme.com/gold and use promo code GOLD for 20% off.Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/goldTake back your privacy! Register for the free data security webinar on October 12th at https://schiffradio.com/actionJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/31/2023 • 54 minutes, 48 seconds
The US Isn't Japan, It's Argentina - Ep 927
Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring nowTake back your privacy! Register for the free data security webinar on October 12th at https://schiffradio.com/actionJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/27/2023 • 54 minutes, 48 seconds
Powell’s Not Qualified to Be a Member of an Economic Club - Ep 926
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldGo to https://oxyhelp.com - Tell them Peter Schiff sent you and get 10% off your hyperbaric chamberJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/20/2023 • 55 minutes, 17 seconds
The "Unsinkable" American Consumer Is Drowning In Debt - Ep 925
Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring nowJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/18/2023 • 54 minutes, 50 seconds
Gold Rises on Worse Than Expected Inflation News - Ep 924
Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upGo to https://oxyhelp.com - Tell them Peter Schiff sent you and get 10% off your hyperbaric chamberJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/14/2023 • 53 minutes, 20 seconds
The US Can’t Afford Peace, Let Alone War - Ep 923
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring nowTake back your privacy! Register for the free data security webinar on October 12th at https://schiffradio.com/actionJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/10/2023 • 55 minutes, 36 seconds
Debt Clock a Ticking Time Bomb Ready to Explode - Ep 922
Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldGo to https://oxyhelp.com - Tell them Peter Schiff sent you and get 10% off your hyperbaric chamberTake back your privacy! Register for the free data security webinar on October 12th at https://schiffradio.com/actionJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/6/2023 • 50 minutes, 51 seconds
The Biggest Crisis Is the One Few See Coming - Ep 921
Reserve your free ticket for The 2023 Expat Money Summit. Online, October 2-6. https://2023.expatmoneysummit.com/?ref=ps112Take back your privacy! Register for the free data security webinar on October 12th at https://schiffradio.com/actionJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/30/2023 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 6 seconds
The Entire Economy Is About to Implode - Ep 920
Reserve your free ticket for The 2023 Expat Money Summit. Online, October 2-6. https://2023.expatmoneysummit.com/?ref=ps112Take back your privacy! Register for the free data security webinar on October 12th at https://schiffradio.com/actionJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/27/2023 • 54 minutes, 45 seconds
Inflation Is Strong, Not the Economy - Ep 919
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldCut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/21/2023 • 55 minutes, 39 seconds
The Inflation War Has Already Been Lost - Ep 918
Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring nowJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/15/2023 • 52 minutes, 1 second
Fed Money Magicians Running Out of Rabbits - Ep 917
Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring nowGet an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiff Our Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/9/2023 • 53 minutes, 2 seconds
Job Market Cools as Inflation Heats Up - Ep 916
Reserve your free ticket for The 2023 Expat Money Summit. Online, October 2-6. https://2023.expatmoneysummit.com/Get 25% off + a FREE bottle of Premium Pure CBD ($50 value, limit 1 use per customer) at https://nextevo.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/1/2023 • 56 minutes, 22 seconds
Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Is Full of Holes - Ep 915
Reserve your free ticket for The 2023 Expat Money Summit. Online, October 2-6. https://2023.expatmoneysummit.com/Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiff Our Sponsors:* Check out Justin Wine and use my code PETER15 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com/Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/28/2023 • 53 minutes, 34 seconds
Peter Schiff's Reaction to the 2024 Republican Party Presidential Debate - Ep 914
First 2024 Republican Party presidential debate reaction.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldOne-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/24/2023 • 54 minutes, 26 seconds
The Days of Low Inflation and Low Interest Rates are Over - Ep 913
Reserve your free ticket for The 2023 Expat Money Summit. Online, October 2-6. https://expatmoneysummit.com/💬 Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium/ to become a member.📈 Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest💯 RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/peterschiff/reviews/🔔 SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/⭐️ Schiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books/👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/21/2023 • 48 minutes, 11 seconds
Minutes Show It’s Later Than the Fed Thinks - Ep 912
Live podcastVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Get 25% off + a FREE bottle of Premium Pure CBD ($50 value, limit 1 use per customer) at https://nextevo.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investSIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.comSchiff Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/newsBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksFollow Peter Schiff on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffFollow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFollow Peter Schiff on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/17/2023 • 56 minutes, 28 seconds
The Fed Will Never Hit Its Inflation Target - Ep 911
Live podcastGo to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upSign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldGet an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/goldBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/14/2023 • 56 minutes, 41 seconds
A Market Driven U.S. Dollar Downgrade Is the Real Threat - Ep 910
Live podcastVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/7/2023 • 54 minutes, 46 seconds
Powell Commits to Rate Cuts Before Inflation Hits 2% - Ep 909
Live podcastCut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/31/2023 • 53 minutes, 49 seconds
Is the AI Inspired Tech Bubble About to Pop? - Ep 908
Live podcastVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/21/2023 • 56 minutes, 45 seconds
Dollar Breakdown Confirms Lower Inflation Is Transitory - Ep 907
Live PodcastGet 20% off your first order of $40 or more at https://nextevo.com/goldExpressVPN: https://expressvpn.com/goldRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/16/2023 • 53 minutes, 15 seconds
Today’s Dollar Rout Confirms Inflation Will Worsen - Ep 906
Live podcast.Visit http://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/12/2023 • 41 minutes, 36 seconds
Bond Bear Will Maul Stocks and the Dollar - Ep 905
Live podcast.Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldGo to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upInvest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/9/2023 • 57 minutes, 24 seconds
Supreme Court Trumps Biden - Ep 904
Live podcast.Get 15% off your entire order. https://fastgrowingtrees.com/goldInvest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/2/2023 • 59 minutes, 3 seconds
An Independent Fed Would Criticize Bad Fiscal Policy - 903
Live podcast.Get 20% off your first order of $40 or more at https://nextevo.com/goldOne-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldInvest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/26/2023 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 2 seconds
National Debt Time Bomb Ticks $32 Trillion - Ep 902
Live podcast.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldInvest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/21/2023 • 45 minutes, 15 seconds
The Pause That Doesn’t Refresh - Ep 901
Live podcast.Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upInvest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/15/2023 • 47 minutes, 26 seconds
French Style Price Controls Are Coming to America - Ep 900
Get $30 off your qualifying order at https://omahasteaks.com and use code GOLD at checkout. Minimum order may be required. See site for details.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/9/2023 • 56 minutes, 55 seconds
Abolishing Govt. Departments Restores Freedom & Prosperity - Ep 899
Live podcast.Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldGet an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/goldInvest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/6/2023 • 55 minutes, 12 seconds
🔴 Restructuring the Debt Beats Inflating It Away - Ep 898
Live podcast.Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Go to https://collective.com by June 13th to save on taxes.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/3/2023 • 56 minutes, 8 seconds
Fiscal Irresponsibility Shatters the Debt Ceiling - Ep 897
· Live podcast.Get 15% off your entire order at https://fastgrowingtrees.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/1/2023 • 57 minutes, 11 seconds
Powell and Bernanke Do America - Ep 896
· Live podcast.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldThanks Inflation Education. Save 15% at https://inflationeducation.net - promo code goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/23/2023 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 30 seconds
Fed's Tough Inflation Talk Sparks Gold Correction - Ep 895
· Live podcast.Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/19/2023 • 56 minutes, 31 seconds
Biased Media Fails Investors and the Public - Ep 894
Live PodcastSign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldCut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/11/2023 • 53 minutes, 25 seconds
Economic Data Confirms Entrenched Inflation - Ep 893
· Live podcast.Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/8/2023 • 43 minutes, 30 seconds
Powell Pause Is Off, so Risk Is On - Ep 892
· Live podcast.Visit https:///indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/4/2023 • 50 minutes, 33 seconds
Growth Slows Down as Inflation Speeds Up - Ep 891
Live PodcastTry Headspace FREE for 30 days by going to http://headspace.com/gold30dayGet 15% off your entire order. https://fastgrowingtrees.com/goldhttps://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/1/2023 • 55 minutes, 14 seconds
Fire Joe Biden, Not Tucker Carlson! - Ep 890
· Live podcast.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/27/2023 • 47 minutes, 17 seconds
The Debt’s the Problem. Not Raising the Ceiling Is the Solution. - Ep 889
· Live podcast.Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upOne-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/24/2023 • 56 minutes, 15 seconds
Just When You Thought Government Couldn’t Get Any Dumber - Ep 888
· Live podcast.Visit https:///indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/21/2023 • 45 minutes, 41 seconds
The Fed and Yellen Make Startling Admissions - Ep 887
· Live podcast.Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/goldThanks ClearComp. Book a demo at https://clearcomp.com.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/17/2023 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 36 seconds
Traders Still Get Jobs and Inflation Wrong - Ep 886
· Live podcast.Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/12/2023 • 38 minutes, 7 seconds
King Dollar Will Soon Be Dethroned - Ep 885
· Live podcast.Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/gold.Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/10/2023 • 49 minutes, 16 seconds
Gold Stocks Are the New Tech Stocks - Ep 884
· Live podcast.Get 15% off your entire order. https://fastgrowingtrees.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/1/2023 • 44 minutes, 30 seconds
Bank Regulations Are the Problem, Not the Solution - Ep 883
· Live podcast.Try Headspace FREE for 30 days by going to https://headspace.com/gold30dayThanks ClearComp. Book a demo at https://clearcomp.comJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/28/2023 • 52 minutes, 5 seconds
Financial Media Surprised by the Obvious
· Live podcast.One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/24/2023 • 43 minutes, 31 seconds
Powell Brushes off Banking Crisis as Bump in the Road - Ep 881
· Live podcast.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/23/2023 • 47 minutes, 32 seconds
PREVIEW: The Peter Schiff Show Premium Member Special - March 20, 2023
Introduction to a special episode of the Peter Schiff Show. Get the full episode with Q&A https://schiffradio.com/premium/Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/20/2023 • 18 minutes, 14 seconds
Fed's Balance Sheet Confirm QE5 - Ep 880
· Live podcast.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/17/2023 • 35 minutes, 4 seconds
The 2023 Financial Crisis Just Went Global - Ep 879
· Live podcast.Thanks ClearComp. Book a demo at https://clearcomp.comJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/16/2023 • 45 minutes, 35 seconds
The 2023 Financial Crisis Has Started - Ep 878
· Live podcast.Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/14/2023 • 53 minutes, 41 seconds
Will the Fed Pivot to Postpone Another Financial Crisis? - Ep 877
· Live podcast and audience Q&A.Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/goldSign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/11/2023 • 59 minutes, 14 seconds
ABC Four Corners’ Fake News Exposed - Ep 876
· Corrupt media deliberately distorts the truth and lies to the Australian people in order to advance a political agenda that is detrimental to the living standards and freedoms of every Australian.Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/7/2023 • 40 minutes, 12 seconds
All Roads Lead To Higher Inflation and Hard Landing - Ep 875
· Strong week for the stock market and gold stocks.· ECB’s inflation goals were asinine.· The Fed will soon break its money losing record.· Debt is going to spiral out of control.· Big money is leaving crypto.· Markets don’t get that inflation isn’t coming down.Thanks Headspace. Try it free for 30 days at https://headspace.com/gold30dayThanks ClearComp. Book a demo at https://clearcomp.comJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/5/2023 • 53 minutes, 30 seconds
Hotter Inflation Chills Stock Market- Ep 874
· The inflation genie is impossible to put back in the bottle.· CPI and PPI are lagging for a number of reasons.· Beaten down stocks of 2022 enjoyed a short-lived dead cat bounce in 2023.· Consumer spending in January surged after a record decline in tax revenue.· The PCE is the most inaccurate way to measure inflation and it’s no coincidence that it’s also the Fed’s favorite way.· The progress the Fed claimed to have made against inflation is already lost.· The inverted yield curve is now even more inverted.Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/26/2023 • 54 minutes, 25 seconds
The Fed Brought a Knife to an Inflation Gun Fight - Ep 873
· People who think that we've seen the worst of inflation are wrong. · Surge in credit card debt proves labor market is weak.· Ronald Reagan’s tax system was the closest we’ve been to a flat tax since 1913.· Presidents’ Day is about honoring George Washington, not Joe Biden.Thanks HelloFresh! Go to https://hellofresh.com/gold65 and use code gold65 for 65% off plus free shipping!Thanks ClearComp. Book a demo at https://clearcomp.com.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/19/2023 • 48 minutes, 1 second
CPI Shows Disinflation Trend May Have Turned - Ep 872
· Biden putting America in much more vulnerable position with continued selling of strategic oil reserves.· Replacing full-time jobs with part-time jobs is not a sign of a strong labor market.· The National Debt is the same thing as having a National Credit Card.· Politicians claiming to care about Social Security are voting to destroy the value of it.· Gold and silver will take off when investors realize inflation is not going back to 2%.Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/15/2023 • 37 minutes, 31 seconds
Neither Biden nor Powell Understands the State of the Union - Ep 871
· As an American, Biden’s State of the Union was horrible.· Inflation Reduction Act will increase prices.· Republicans supporting Trump deficits paved the way for Biden deficits.· Biden is cutting Social Security through inflation.· Biden promises to save your pennies while stealing your dollars.· More savings reduces inflation through decreased demand and increased supply.Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/9/2023 • 43 minutes, 16 seconds
Risk-On, Economic Understanding Off - Ep 870
· Short covering fuels tech rally.· Good news on the economy is bad news for the market.· Fewer people have full-time jobs today than 10 months ago.· The media is racist.Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldVisit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/6/2023 • 48 minutes, 14 seconds
The Fed Can’t Fight What It Doesn’t Understand - Ep 869
· As expected, the Fed did exactly what was expected.· Gold trades highest it’s been in almost a year.· Government causes inflation, not consumers.· Investors are seeing through the outliers when it comes to stronger economic data.· Congress acts shocked to discover fraud with PPP loans.Thanks Winmond. Visit https://winmond.com to inquire about purchase or a joint venture.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/2/2023 • 40 minutes, 51 seconds
Government Worsens Every Problem It Tries to Solve - Ep 868
· Weakening dollar will worsen trade deficit.· Fed is nowhere near victory in inflation fight.· Google does not have a monopoly on advertising.· San Francisco wants to incentivize African Americans to commit drug crimes.Get $15 off at Nutrafol.com when you got to https://nutrafol.com/men and use promo code goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/29/2023 • 54 minutes, 50 seconds
Davos Investors Are Skiing Towards a Debt Cliff - Ep 867
· Growth stock will rollover and make new lows in 2023.· Gold hit new 9 month high on the week.· While tech stocks are rising, their headcounts are falling.· New economic data blows away low-end expectations.· 2023 could be one of the worst years ever for the dollar.· Politicians and central bankers waste public money being hypocrites at Davos.· Netflix documentary on Bernie Madoff proves more regulation won’t help us.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/21/2023 • 44 minutes, 9 seconds
Soaring Consumer Credit Means Higher Consumer Prices - Ep 866
· The Fed will surrender to inflation in 2023.· Recession will be the Fed’s next battle, and they’ll lose that too.· Inflation is expanding with money supply and credit supply.· Consumers in debt are going out with a bang.· Republican compromises continue to err on the side of big government.Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/11/2023 • 42 minutes, 10 seconds
Gold Stocks Ring in the New Year With a Bang - Ep 865
· Investment rotation continues into value, international, emerging markets, and precious metals.· Precious metals mining stocks are best performing sector of 2023 so far.Expect a breakdown in the dollar and an even bigger breakout in mining stocks.· Bitcoin is sliding a slope of hope.· NY Attorney General files civil charges on Alex Mashinsky for Celsius fraud.Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/7/2023 • 57 minutes, 48 seconds
2023 Begins Where 2022 Left Off - Ep 864
· 2023 is gearing up for a lot of volatility and weakness in the stock market.· 2023 stock market highs may have already been made.· NASDAQ stocks will implode when Cathie Wood turns from being biggest buyer to biggest seller.· 2023 will likely be the year Bitcoin collapses and gold shines.Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/4/2023 • 44 minutes, 30 seconds
This Time Japan Dropped a Bomb on Us - Ep 863
· Everyone realizes recession is coming, but nobody realizes how bad it will be.· Too many people are getting rich off war in Ukraine for there to be a chance of peace.· Gold and silver mining stocks are at the beginning of a bull market.· Institutional interest in Bitcoin is gone.· Bank of Japan has now joined the tightening party.Go to https://bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign upGo to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE trial.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/24/2022 • 51 minutes, 47 seconds
Powell Admits He’s Clueless on the US Economy - Ep 862
· The days of low inflation are over.· Jerome Powell threw cold water on investors’ hope.· Terminal rate of interest continues higher.· Mr. Schiff Goes to Washington: https://youtu.be/mANOqcnLtqA· Mr. Schiff Returns to Washington: https://youtu.be/UvMGHzB37loGet an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE trial.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/15/2022 • 56 minutes, 39 seconds
Bad News on Inflation Should Not Be a Surprise - Ep 861
· 2023 will see a new high-water mark in producer prices.· Declining Coinbase stock is an ominous sign for crypto market.· Kevin O’Leary is culpable in the FTX scam.· Americans on the hook for Teamsters pensions.Thanks Raycon! For a limited time, go to https://buyraycon.com/gold and use code HOLIDAY for 15% off your entire Raycon order.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/11/2022 • 48 minutes, 51 seconds
Investors Are Mistaken About the Fed’s Mistake - Ep 860
· Weakening economy will expand inflation· Bitcoin is building a trapdoor, not a bottom.· Jobs under Biden were returned, not created.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month. For a limited time, buy any 3-month Mint Mobile plan and get 3 more months FREE at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/7/2022 • 38 minutes, 52 seconds
The Dollar Breaks Down as Gold Breaks Out - Ep 859
· New jobs created indicate a weak labor market.· Manufacturing is as weak now is it was in the worst part of the covid pandemic.· 2023 will be an explosive year for gold and silver.Go to https://fountainheadme.com/peter for a free analysis that will tell you how to be more profitable selling products online.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/4/2022 • 46 minutes, 10 seconds
Markets Finally Call Powell’s Bluff - Ep 858
· The next leg down in the dollar and the next leg up in gold may be here.· High interest rates creating a glut of sellers and a lack of buyers in housing.· 2023 will be the year that the air finally comes out of the Bitcoin bubble.Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/1/2022 • 38 minutes, 1 second
Deja Vu All Over Again… Again – Ep 857
· Dubai is a world leader in economic freedom.
· Financial media will ignore gold stocks until they’ve tripled.
· More fraud happens under regulation than without.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE trial.
Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package. https://expressvpn.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/26/2022 • 53 minutes, 35 seconds
The King of Crypto Had No Clothes – Ep 856
· More economic data confirms we’re in a recession.
· Republicans gain control of the purse strings.
· Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX was a crypto Ponzi scheme.
· If you’re still holding Bitcoin, you’re the bag holder.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE trial.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/18/2022 • 46 minutes, 31 seconds
In the Eye of the Inflation Hurricane – Ep 855
· Investors being lulled into false sense of security.
· More higher income shoppers turning to Walmart.
· FTX dominos continue falling.
· Donald Trump is running for president.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/16/2022 • 58 minutes, 20 seconds
Voters and Investors Keep Getting It Wrong – Ep 854
· CPI data sends stocks and bonds soaring, while dollar tanks.
· Moves of magnitude in gold suggest something significant is going on.
· Junior mining stocks are in a stealth bull market.
· Sweden is handling inflation far more responsibly than America.
· Only vote your conscience when there are no consequences.
· FTX turns out to be a Ponzi scheme perpetuating a house of cards in crypto.
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/11/2022 • 47 minutes, 43 seconds
The Gold Train Has Left the Station – Ep 853
· Commodities break out of their bear market corrections.
· Tech stocks collapsing further.
· Smart money is buying gold mining stocks.
· Labor force participation rate has declined despite extra jobs.
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/7/2022 • 51 minutes, 21 seconds
Powell Pulls the Hope Out From Under the Market – Ep 852
· Federal Reserve raises interest rates again as expected.
· Markets spooked as Jerome Powell dropped bombshells in Fed meeting.
· Biden administration gets fact checked and deletes tweet.
· Weakness in the stock market will continue on after the election.
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/3/2022 • 32 minutes, 34 seconds
For Now, Bad News Is Good Again – Ep 851
· Dow has best October in its history.
· Rotation continues from growth to value stocks.
· Market is priced for perfection with anything but perfect circumstances.
· Inflation will never go back to 2%
· Amazon, Apple, and Netflix disappoint investors.
· Meta and Alphabet hurt by dried up advertising.
· Consumers need to save now and buy later, not buy now and pay later.
· Elon Musk buys Twitter and thanks Peter Schiff.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/30/2022 • 58 minutes, 2 seconds
Fed Folds With a Soft Pivot – Ep 850
· Interest rates are the Achilles’ heel of this bubble economy.
· Shelter costs are going up, even if housing prices are going down.
· Gold will be gaining value as the dollar loses value.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE trial.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/26/2022 • 44 minutes, 52 seconds
Despite 14 Year Highs, Bond Yields Have a Long Way to Rise – Ep 849
· High inflation is here to stay.
· Biden shifts the blame for high oil prices on to Putin.
· Financial intervention and bailouts are simple politics.
· The stock market is far away from the bottom.
· Netflix and Tesla are expensive stocks.
· Markets will react before the Fed has a chance to pivot.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE trial.
Join me at the Traders Summit online October 21-23 where I’ll be debating a former Bank of England policy maker. Free registration at https://tradersummit.net/event-oct-2022/?ref=1019
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/20/2022 • 58 minutes, 43 seconds
Inflation Insanity Continues – Ep 848
· CPI numbers worse than investors feared.
· Less younger people working while more older people retiring is bad news for Social Security Ponzi scheme.
· Selling British Pounds for American Dollars is jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
· I’ll be debating a former Bank of England policy maker on October 22nd. Free registration at https://tradersummit.net/event-oct-2022/?ref=1019
· Bitcoin teetering on the edge of collapse.
· Precious metals holding up better than stock market, even as gold is being given away at bargain prices.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/15/2022 • 57 minutes, 48 seconds
The Fed Has Made Zero Progress Fighting Inflation – Ep 847
· Bank of England has Wall Street questioning the Fed.
· Consumers are spending and borrowing more than ever.
· Oil prices rise on OPEC+ production decrease.
· Bitcoin is very close to a major collapse.
· Michael Saylor is harming more investors than Kim Kardashian.
· Bond investors still don’t believe inflation is here to stay.
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
Thanks Raycon!. For a limited time, go to https://buyraycon.com/gold for up to 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/9/2022 • 59 minutes, 17 seconds
Live Gold and Silver Update Plus Q&A – Ep 846
· Peter Schiff does a live update on the markets, particularly gold and silver prices, plus takes listener questions.
Go to Bambee.com and type in Peter Schiff under PODCAST when you sign up
Thanks Ladder. Go to ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/3/2022 • 1 hour, 55 minutes, 56 seconds
A September Investors Hope to Forget – Ep 845
· Market has worst monthly drop since covid began, and worst September since 2008.
· Carnival Cruise sinking like the Titanic.
· CNBC finally starts criticizing Cathie Wood.
· Anyone one who dropped gold for Grayscale has lost tremendously.
· Puerto Rico needs relief from government, not hurricanes.
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/2/2022 • 49 minutes, 26 seconds
Bank of England Pivots First, Fed to Follow – Ep 844
· Bank of England commits to another QE Infinity.
· Inflation is here to stay for the British.
· Reversals in the dollar and gold may mark key turning points.
Thanks https://rocketmoney.com/gold. It could save you hundreds a year.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/29/2022 • 44 minutes, 27 seconds
Fed’s Feigned Inflation Resolve Lifts Dollar and Sinks Stocks – Ep 843
· Huge job losses will lead to imploding earnings and exploding debt service costs.
· Gold proving to be an excellent store of value in many currencies.
· Fed will pivot to postpone financial crisis
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/25/2022 • 52 minutes, 29 seconds
Powell Still Hopes to Do the Impossible – Ep 842
· Jerome Powell delivers exactly what the market expects.
· State governments’ cash will be depleted.
· Ethereum traders bought the rumor and sold the fact.
· The Fed will always choose inflation over deflation.
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/22/2022 • 43 minutes, 35 seconds
FedEx Proves the Fed Can’t Deliver a Soft Landing – Ep 841
· Big losses following Suckers Rally in Bitcoin and stock market.
· The Fed will pivot when the economy starts to buckle.
· Atlanta Fed lowers their estimates for Q3 GDP.
· Silver may be showing a silver lining in gold’s cloud.
· We’re likely nowhere near a bottom in the stock market.
· One of these Mondays will be a Black Monday.
· Bond market may crash harder than stocks.
· Bond market crash has implications well beyond the stock market.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/17/2022 • 45 minutes, 36 seconds
Inflation Data Sparks Biggest Market Crash Since Covid Lockdowns – Ep 840
· Stock market has its biggest crash since 2020 covid lockdowns.
· Food prices see biggest year over year increase since 1979.
· Bitcoin gets smoked.
· Fed needs to make some hard political decisions if it wants to stop inflation.
· Get exposure to gold now before the entry point is a lot higher.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/14/2022 • 39 minutes, 48 seconds
ECB’s Inflation Fight May Knock Out the Dollar – Ep 839
· ECB hikes rates as Europe’s inflation outpaces the U.S.
· Powell admits we’re on an unsustainable fiscal path.
· The Fed is not a friend of the public. It’s the enemy.
· U.K. government will make their energy crisis worse.
· No new money is going into crypto.
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/11/2022 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 13 seconds
Any News Is Bad News for Stocks – Ep 838
· Inflation’s day of reckoning can’t be postponed much longer.
· Markets show risk of a Black Tuesday.
· More Bitcoin sellers above $20k than buyers below it.
· Gold bucking the downtrend in stocks.
· Higher unemployment data surprises markets.
· Putin understands the global inflation problem is the fault of the Fed and ECB.
· Biden gives dishonest and divisive speech in Philadelphia.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.
Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/4/2022 • 58 minutes, 15 seconds
Fed Can’t Solve an Inflation Problem It Doesn’t Understand – Ep 837
· Consumers have misplaced confidence.
· Job hirings shrink as job openings grow.
· Jeremy Siegel, Becky Quick, and Joe Biden compete for most ridiculous inflation comment.
· Los Angeles liberals’ virtue signaling reaches new level of idiocy.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/31/2022 • 42 minutes, 51 seconds
Powell Promises Pain, Markets Deliver – Ep 836
· Jerome Powell no longer believes the economy will have a soft landing.
· Joe Biden is creating severe moral hazards with student loan forgiveness.
· Most unsold new homes on the market since aftermath of financial crisis.
· Service sector is at its weakest since the depths of covid lockdowns.
· More consumers are relying on savings and debt.
· A Black Monday is possible.
· Bond market investors are clueless to the reality of inflation.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Businesses only pay for quality applications matching the sponsored job description. Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/28/2022 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 9 seconds
Markets Push Back the Powell Pivot – Ep 835
· 4-week winning streak for S&P comes to an end.
· Investors chasing momentum.
· Not-as-weak is the new strong.
· Mortgage applications at their lowest since aftermath of dot com bubble.
Thanks Raycon! For a limited time, go to https://buyraycon.com/gold for up to 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/21/2022 • 57 minutes, 11 seconds
Government Can’t Do Anything Right – Ep 834
· NASDAQ loses steam.
· Rising gold and silver propels mining stocks.
· Food prices increased faster than any month since 1979.
· Consumer sentiment among Democrats tumbled to a two-year low.
· The Jones Act hurts everyone except the owners of certain ships.
Businesses only pay for quality applications matching the sponsored job description. Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/14/2022 • 52 minutes, 28 seconds
Biden Taunts Public With Inflation Victory Dance – Ep 833
· Wall Street parties on CPI data release.
· Minimum wage is bad economics.
· Democrats prepare to shakedown the middle class while protecting the billionaires and millionaires.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/11/2022 • 44 minutes, 34 seconds
The Truth Behind the Strong Job Market Hype – Ep 832
· Jobs report evidences a weak, not strong, economy.
· Putin delivered price cuts, not price hikes.
· Going into debt is not a sign of prosperity.
· More people jobless than ever before.
· Gold market shows strength.
Businesses only pay for quality applications matching the sponsored job description. Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/7/2022 • 1 hour, 30 seconds
Damn the Recession, Rate Hikes Ahead – Ep 831
· Treasury yields surge.
· Fed forgets about inflation averaging.
· Households take on all time record debt.
· Nominal wages are going up, but real wages are collapsing.
· China can do more damage to our economy without harming Nancy Pelosi.
· Buy gold before the Chinese beat you to it.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/3/2022 • 40 minutes, 10 seconds
U.S. in Recession Amid Weak Labor Market – Ep 830
· U.S. goes into recession; Biden and Fed deny it.
· Media goes along with redefining recession.
· The Inflation Reduction Act will increase inflation.
· Forex and gold investors finally figuring things out.
· Bond investors still clueless.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/31/2022 • 49 minutes, 21 seconds
Powell Gets Democrats’ Memo to Redefine Recession – Ep 829
· Fed meets market expectations with 75 basis point rate hike.
· Jerome Powell sidesteps recession questions.
· Walmart confirms consumer weakness.
· Gold may have found a bottom.
· Gold miners rally.
· Any rally in Bitcoin is a selling opportunity.
Businesses only pay for quality applications matching the sponsored job description. Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now. Terms and conditions apply.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/28/2022 • 50 minutes, 7 seconds
Recession Deniers Waking up to Reality – Ep 828
· More data pointing to a worsening economy.
· ECB hikes rates for first time in 11 years.
· Dollar looks to have topped out.
· Gold looks to have bottomed.
· Tech companies hurting as advertisers flee.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/24/2022 • 47 minutes, 37 seconds
Unwarranted Optimism Lifts Stocks, Pressures Gold – Ep 827
· U.S. stock markets rally.
· Home builder sentiment will go from new highs to new lows.
· Elon Musk dumps Bitcoin.
· Taxes in California are higher than Sweden.
· American standard of living has declined since the 1960’s.
Businesses only pay for quality applications matching the sponsored job description. Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now. Terms and conditions apply.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/21/2022 • 55 minutes
A Tale of Two Dollars – Ep 826
· Consumer prices reported hotter than expected.
· Dollar is rising on the greater fool theory.
· Inflation is not a product of expectations.
· It's good politics to talk about fighting inflation. It's horrible politics to actually fight it.
· Investors sheltering in the U.S. dollar abroad are in for a rude awakening.
Businesses only pay for quality applications matching the sponsored job description. Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now. Terms and conditions apply.
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/17/2022 • 59 minutes, 8 seconds
Official Inflation Hits Another New High – Ep 825
· Inflation is soaring across the world.
· U.S. monetary and fiscal policies are at odds with each other.
· Motor vehicle repair costs have highest increase since the 1974.
· Dollar rises as gold tanks.
· Gold stocks are at bargain prices.
· Don’t fall for bait and switch scams from gold and silver dealers.
Thanks Raycon! For a limited time, go to https://buyraycon.com/gold for up to 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/14/2022 • 35 minutes, 30 seconds
A Surge in Moonlighting Evidences Weakness Not Strength – Ep 824
· Dollar strengthened and gold tanked.
· Needing a second crappy job is not good news for the economy.
· Shinzo Abe was assassinated before he could be held accountable for his disastrous economic policies.
· Peter Schiff was right about Elon Musk’s Twitter bluff.
· Bitcoin big shot advocates for government regulation against alt coin competitors.
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. It could save you hundreds a year.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/10/2022 • 36 minutes, 14 seconds
Atlanta Fed Finally Forecasts Recession – Ep 823
· Atlanta Fed blindsided with negative GDO numbers.
· Labor force participation rate near its lows.
· Biden’s approval rating reaches new low.
· Gold investments will pay off big.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/3/2022 • 39 minutes, 38 seconds
A Truly Independent Fed Would Criticize Bad Fiscal Policy – Ep 822
· Gold less volatile than stock market indexes.
· Bitcoin more volatile than stock market indexes.
· Rising interest rates pushing up deficit.
· Abortion laws should be left to the states.
· Democrats are only pro-choice when it comes to abortions.
· The Patriot Act should have been called the Anti-Privacy Act.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/26/2022 • 59 minutes, 17 seconds
Recession Rears Uglier Head Than Inflation – Ep 821
· Dow Jones just did something it hasn't done since the great depression.
· Rates in the UK and Japan headed higher.
· Weakness and volatility in crypto markets.
· Government moves to ban Juul vapes.
· Jerome Powell uses politics as an excuse.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Plus earn up to $500 extra in sponsored job credits with Indeed’s Virtual Interviews.Terms and conditions apply.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/23/2022 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 58 seconds
75 Basis Point Rate Hike May Signal Peak Hawkishness – Ep 820
· Fed makes biggest rate hike move in 28 years.
· Powell makes excuses for Fed’s role in causing inflation.
· Credit card debt at all time high while credit card interest surges.
· Atlanta Fed predicts zero growth for second quarter.
· Green New Deal Democrats should embrace higher oil prices.
· Gold shows strong support at $1800.
· CNBC gives Michael Saylor a podium to keep pumping Bitcoin.
Thanks, Tommy John Get 20% off your 1st order https://tommyjohn.com/gold. See site for details.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/16/2022 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 7 seconds
The Bull Market Is Dead. The Bear May Live Long. – Ep 819
· Dow is now the only major index not in a bear market.
· Bitcoin and Ethereum have a Black Monday.
· Highest inflation in US history will be game changer for dollar and precious metals.
· Google settles frivolous lawsuit.
· Bitcoin pumpers lower the bar.
· Celsius crypto accounts frozen.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/14/2022 • 50 minutes, 25 seconds
Peak Inflation Was Transitory – Ep 818
· Inflation beat expectations by a wide margin.
· Consumers more pessimistic now than in depth of Covid lockdowns.
· CNBC ridicules David Einhorn for recommending gold investing.
· Investors selling both the rumor and the fact.
· Christine Lagarde said nothing hawkish.
· Recession will kick inflation into a new gear.
· Gold stocks unexpected victim of inflation.
· Government causes inflation, not prices.
· Putin calls out Biden for lying about price hikes.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Plus earn up to $500 extra in sponsored job credits with Indeed’s Virtual Interviews. Terms and conditions apply.
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/11/2022 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 52 seconds
The US Economy Gets Weaker as Inflation Gets Stronger – Ep 817
· Food prices headed higher.
· Energy prices headed higher.
· Chief is not an offensive word to Native Americans.
· Inflation is not the private sector’s fault
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/8/2022 • 42 minutes, 4 seconds
Jobs Are a Lagging Indicator – Ep 816
· Encouraging action in gold stocks.
· America has never been in a weaker position to fight inflation.
· Busts are the solution to artificial booms.
Thanks to The Jeffrey Verdon Law Group. Go to https://jmvlaw.com by 7/15 and mention my name for 50% off your initial consultation.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/4/2022 • 51 minutes, 52 seconds
Biden Passes the Buck on Inflation – Ep 815
· Investors come back selling.
· Crypto among worst performers of May.
· Gold stocks are in a buying opportunity.
· Germany is the key to the European Union.
· Biden outlines a plan for fighting inflation.
· Oil will continue spiking because of Biden, not Putin.
Thanks to The Jeffrey Verdon Law Group. Go to https://jmvlaw.com by 7/15 and mention my name for 50% off your initial consultation.
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. It could save you hundreds a year.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/1/2022 • 55 minutes, 32 seconds
Don’t Buy a Bear Market Rally – Ep 814
· Bull trap fooling investors.
· Bitcoin did not participate in the rally.
· Homeowners will make money as debtors.
· The Fed postponing recession will result in decades of inflation.
Thanks https://avast.com!
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/29/2022 • 58 minutes, 28 seconds
🔴 The Devil Returns to Collect America’s Soul – Ep 813
· Dow on its longest losing streak in 100 years.
· Snapchat implodes.
· Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch investors learn a hard lesson.
· Inflation can no longer be solved with higher interest rates.
· Even rigged CPI can’t hide rising prices now.
· Ruble strength proves sanctions didn’t work.
· Bitcoin shows surprising resilience... for now.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer good for a limited time
Get $300 off and FREE shipping at https://liveouter.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/25/2022 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 50 seconds
It Was the “Strong” Economy That Was Transitory – Ep 812
· Dow and S&P see biggest drop since the pandemic.
· Walmart was the jab. Target was the knockout punch.
· Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen show strength.
Thanks to The Jeffrey Verdon Law Group. Go to https://jmvlaw.com and mention my name for 50% off your initial consultation.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/20/2022 • 53 minutes, 35 seconds
Powell Admits Soft Landing May Be Bumpy – Ep 811
· Americans are spending more, but buying less.
· Jeff Bezos calls out Joe Biden.
· Businesses are absorbing costs, not gouging prices.
· Ben Bernanke is right about Bitcoin.
· Brace yourself for an economic crash.
Thanks to The Jeffrey Verdon Law Group. Go to https://jmvlaw.com and mention my name for 50% off your initial consultation.
Thanks, Tommy John Get 20% off your 1st order https://tommyjohn.com/gold. See site for details.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/18/2022 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 59 seconds
Consumers Worried About Inflation. Investors Worried About the Fight. – Ep 810
· More downside to go as investors panic buy stocks.
· Robinhood will ultimately go bankrupt.
· Jerome Powell gets reappointed as Fed chair.
· Consumers are borrowing more, despite rate hikes.
· Oil positioning for a big move up.
Thanks to The Jeffrey Verdon Law Group. Go to https://jmvlaw.com and mention my name for 50% off your initial consultation.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/15/2022 • 55 minutes, 18 seconds
Bitcoin May Luna After All – Ep 809
· Gold and silver remain strong while gold and silver miners continue caving.
· Lisa Cook was not the most qualified person for the FOMC.
· Neel Kashkari had a Freudian slip.
· Companies are imploding and massive layoffs are coming.
· Crypto is collapsing.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer good for a limited time
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/12/2022 • 1 hour, 49 seconds
Black Monday 2: Electric Boogaloo – Ep 808
· Investors resorted to indiscriminate selling amidst today’s carnage.
· The Fed can’t do the impossible.
· Housing foreclosures will go through the roof.
· Covid shutdowns were just a dress rehearsal for what’s coming next.
· Weak hands sold precious metals today.
Thanks to The Jeffrey Verdon Law Group. Go to https://jmvlaw.com and mention my name for 50% off your initial consultation.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/10/2022 • 41 minutes, 33 seconds
The Fed Has Already Lost the Inflation Fight – Ep 807
· Stock market gets clobbered.
· Crypto market gets clobbered.
· Markets still closer to the top than the bottom.
· Productivity sees biggest drop since 1947.
· We may already be in an inflationary depression.
Thanks https://avast.com!
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/7/2022 • 52 minutes, 47 seconds
Fed Hawks Turn Chicken – Ep 806
· Fed raises benchmark interest rates higher than it has in 20 years.
· Lyft stock hits 52 week low.
· Jerome Powell admires Paul Volcker, but not for his policies.
· New York Times argues for less courage and more cowardice.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/5/2022 • 50 minutes, 54 seconds
GDP & Stocks Down + Inflation Up = Recession – Ep 805
· NASDAQ has worst first 4 months since 1971.
· S&P has worst first 4 months since 1939.
· FANG stocks enter bear market.
· Prices increasing faster than wages.
· Cathie Wood is the guru of mindless meme stock investing.
· Bitcoin HODLers are deer staring into the headlights of a Mack truck.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Thanks Athletic Greens. Go to https://athleticgreens.com/peter to get a FREE 1 year supply of
immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/1/2022 • 56 minutes, 16 seconds
Outrageous Positive Spin on Negative GDP – Ep 804
· Mortgage are rates too high for anyone to refinance for better rates.
· Markets rally on horrific economic news.
· Russia ranks higher than Ukraine in economic freedom.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/29/2022 • 45 minutes, 55 seconds
Good Politics Is Bad Economics – Ep 803
· Elon Musk buys Twitter.
· NASDAQ has weakest day since September of 2020.
· Indonesia bans palm oil exports.
· Bad politics are good for the economy.
Go to https://novo.co/gold and get your FREE business checking account
Get $300 off and FREE shipping at https://liveouter.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/27/2022 • 53 minutes, 15 seconds
Investors on High Wire Without Fed’s Net – Ep 802
· Jerome Powell triggers market selloff after IMF roundtable comments.
· Higher inflation is lowering the minimum wage’s barrier of entry.
· Bill Ackman loses almost half a billion dollars on his recent Netflix bet.
· Bitcoin will crash hard once Paul Tudor Jones bails on it.
· Elon Musk’s Twitter funding is dangerous for Tesla’s stock.
· Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund may hit new lows on Monday.
· Loses are just getting started in Anthony Scaramucci’s Skybridge funds.
· FOMC egos are the only thing bigger than the economic bubble.
· Gold bull market is being birthed as crypto bull market dies.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Thanks StoryWorth. Get $10 off your first purchase at https://storyworth.com/gold
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/23/2022 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 45 seconds
The Inflation Monster May Devastate Japan First – Ep 801
· Netflix loses subscribers.
· Incomes are collapsing at an unprecedented rate.
· We're probably in a bear market that will last at least a decade.
· Slow motion disaster is playing out in Japan.
· Sanctions may end up benefiting Russia.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 4/30/22
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/20/2022 • 40 minutes, 22 seconds
Risk of Market Crash Keeps Rising – Ep 800
· If the bond market doesn’t crash, the stock market will.
· Weakness continues in tech and crypto.
· Gold and silver mining stocks show strength.
· We’ve never had this much inflation and the Fed has never been this far behind the curve.
· Elon Musk is bluffing.
Thanks https://avast.com!
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/16/2022 • 1 hour, 18 seconds
Peak Inflation Is Wishful Thinking – Ep 799
* Inflation is double what the Fed admits.
* March budget deficit is quadruple consensus expectations.
* Bitcoin struggles.
* The retired won’t be able to stay retired much longer.
* Dollar outlier signals its last hurrah.
Thanks Tommy John Get 20% off your 1st order https://tommyjohn.com/gold. See site for details.
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/13/2022 • 40 minutes, 16 seconds
Something’s Gotta Give – Ep 798
* Bond bulls haven’t thrown in the towel yet.
* Biden wants to expand Obamacare.
* Bitcoin moves from diamond hands to paper hands.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/10/2022 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 42 seconds
It’s Much Later Than the Fed Thinks – Ep 797
* You can't have normal interest rates unless you have normal inflation.
* Politicians are pandering to crypto enthusiasts.
* Peter Thiel delivers pie in the sky speech at Miami Bitcoin Conference.
* The only time government can do good, is when it undoes bad things it’s previously done.
* The constitution doesn’t authorize the federal government to ban marijuana or any other drugs.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 4/30/22
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
Join me and other world class speakers on the Traders Summit live online conference 8th-10th April! Register FREE here with one click: https://tradersummit.net/event-2022/?ref=1012
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/8/2022 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 4 seconds
Fed Doves Pretending to Be Inflation Hawks Are Chickenhawks – Ep 796
* Bond market continues getting beaten up.
* Lael Brainard spooks the markets with sudden hawk talk.
* When you live in a glass White House, don’t throw stones.
* Sanctions created a bottom and bull market for the Russian ruble.
Join me and other world class speakers on the Traders Summit live online conference 8th-10th April! Register FREE here with one click: https://tradersummit.net/event-2022/?ref=1012
Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/6/2022 • 43 minutes, 56 seconds
Q1 Ends as Market and Economic Pain Begins – Ep 795
* Fools bought the dip in March.
* Don’t wait to sell in May and go away.
* Cathie Wood turns down debate invitation.
* Meme stocks pumped, peaked, and dumped.
* Dollar’s tailwind in Q1 will become a headwind in Q2.
* Bonds suffer their worst quarter in 40 years.
* Commodities experience their best quarter in 32 years.
* America is headed for stagflation.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Thanks Athletic Greens. Go to https://athleticgreens.com/peter to get a FREE 1 year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/2/2022 • 56 minutes, 22 seconds
German CPI Exposes ECB’s Low Inflation Lies – Ep 794
* Europe has a serious inflation problem.
* The ECB says the cost of living isn’t rising fast enough.
* Politicians and central bankers are using covid and Putin as scapegoats for inflation.
* The bigger the government, the bigger the problems.
* Gold and oil react to peace talks in Ukraine.
Get $300 off and FREE shipping at https://liveouter.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/31/2022 • 44 minutes, 41 seconds
The Fed Will Be Turning Japanese, I Really Think So – Ep 793
* Japanese will pay higher taxes, officially or through inflation.
* All bonds, not just treasuries, will fall in price.
* Biden calls for new wealth tax.
Thanks https://avast.com!
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/28/2022 • 55 minutes, 41 seconds
Stock Investors Bathing in Bond Blood Bath – Ep 792
* Bond market has worst quarter since 1980.
* Recession will not take care of inflation.
* Mortgage rates will double far sooner than income.
* Gold stocks outperforming tech stocks is a sign of things changing.
* Biden will prolong the Russian invasion to scapegoat inflation crisis.
* Ukraine is fighting for sovereignty, not freedom.
* Idiot reporter asks Biden stupidest question ever.
Thanks https://avast.com!
Go to https://athleticgreens.com/peter to get a FREE 1 year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/26/2022 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 39 seconds
Government Solutions Worsen Every Problem Government Creates – Ep 791
* Stocks are going up and down while gold is just going up.
* Bond prices are a function of government intervention and nothing else.
* Bitcoin, tech, and meme stocks caught up in bear market rally.
* Democrats’ Gas Rebate Act will fuel the inflation fire.
Go to https://novo.co/gold and get your FREE business checking account
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/25/2022 • 39 minutes, 53 seconds
Inflation Far Bigger Threat Than Investors Expect – Ep 790
* Everything-is-awesome attitude won’t last long much longer.
* Stagflation is here.
* This round of QE won’t be like the last 4.
* The economy has never been as addicted to cheap money as it is now.
* Bond investors will begin to realize that bonds are mispriced.
* We’ve been making our inflation bed for years and now it’s time to lay in it.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 3/31/22.
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. it could save you hundreds a year.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/23/2022 • 58 minutes, 36 seconds
Stocks Soar as My Reputation Tanks – Ep 789
* Investors buy the fact after selling the rumor.
* Fed will raise rates until it can’t.
* The emperor’s new clothes is Zelensky’s t-shirt.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 20% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/19/2022 • 54 minutes, 9 seconds
The Most Anticipated Yet Least Significant Rate Hike Ever – Ep 788
* Elizabeth Warren blames covid and corporations for problems caused by Congress.
* Bond market thinks the recession will cure inflation; it won't.
* Congressional staffers get a huge pay raise, paid by taxpayers.
* Small rate hikes will hurt the stock market, not the gold market.
* Fed is doing the minimum it can get away with to try to save face.
* You live by low interest rates, you die by high interest rates.
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold
Thanks https://avast.com!
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/17/2022 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 53 seconds
The U.S. Has More to Lose Than Russia – Ep 787
* Record highs coming for oil.
* Dollar rallies into its last hurrah.
* Don’t throw stones when you live in a glass White House.
* Consumers wrongfully expecting inflation relief.
* Russia is not causing inflation, the U.S. government is.
* Biden is interfering with job creation, not improving it.
* Inflation is one of the few things still made in America.
Go to https://novo.co/gold and get your FREE business checking account.
https://babbel.com promo code GOLD to get 3 additional months when you purchase a 3 month subscription.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/12/2022 • 55 minutes, 5 seconds
Gold Is the Safest Haven – Ep 786
* Joe Biden’s executive order will hurt Bitcoin.
* Elizabeth Warren has a deep seated hatred for Bitcoin.
* Biden displays cringe level hypocrisy on oil companies.
* Gold miners will make far more money than investors think.
* Watch out for gold scams.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/11/2022 • 54 minutes, 33 seconds
Gold to the Moon, Bitcoin Stuck on Earth – Ep 785
* Biden bans Russian imports.
* Oil push higher.
* Dow enters into correction territory.
* S&P plunges deeper into correction.
* Russell 2000 and NASDAQ enter bear markets.
* Gold hits new all time high.
* US economy hemorrhaging red ink.
* Bitcoin is setting up for a crash to zero.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 3/31/22
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/9/2022 • 55 minutes, 58 seconds
The Road to Debt Monetization Is Paved With Good Intentions – Ep 784
* China will begin selling more US dollars and treasuries.
* Food and energy prices surge.
* Biden’s State of the Union was misinformation.
* Jerome Powell skips SOTU to prepare his own lies.
Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/5/2022 • 58 minutes, 47 seconds
Russia Is the Newest Excuse Variant – Ep 783
* Russian economy gets cut off from the world.
* Russian stocks obliterated.
* Investors should stop questioning gold and start buying it.
* Russia will replace Covid as the Fed’s scapegoat.
* As the streets get bloodier, the opportunities get bigger.
Thanks https://avast.com!
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/1/2022 • 43 minutes, 27 seconds
Biden’s Supreme Court Pick Will Ignore the Constitution – Ep 782
* Democrats hate the constitution.
* The constitution doesn’t need to be interpreted.
* Republics protect the minority from the majority.
* Founding fathers warned of the evils of democracy.
* You can’t have liberty in a democracy, but you can in a republic.
* The constitution was written to protect against democracy.
* The government that governs best, governs least.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Thanks https://avast.com!
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/26/2022 • 53 minutes, 19 seconds
What if the World Sanctions America? – Ep 781
* Russian stock market loses big.
* Gold’s bullish story strengthens.
* Sanctions will have ramifications beyond Russian borders.
* Joe Biden does a premature victory dance.
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. it could save you hundreds a year.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/25/2022 • 43 minutes, 22 seconds
Sanctions for Russia Mean Higher Inflation for America – Ep 780
* Bad presidents, like Joe Biden, do not deserve to be honored on Presidents Day.
* George Washington was the greatest American in history.
* Joe Biden avoids taking questions to avoid giving stupid answers.
* Government’s solution to the energy crisis will be rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
* NATO should have been disbanded with the fall of the Soviet Union.
* Bitcoin leads risk assets lower, in the opposite direction of gold.
* Markets are reacting more to inflation fears than concerns over Russia and Ukraine.
* Buying Bitcoin is better than shorting gold.
* Hex coin scam epitomizes the problems with Bitcoin.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 3/31/22
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/23/2022 • 50 minutes, 39 seconds
Recession Will Make the Inflation Problem Worse – Ep 779
* Supply will decrease faster than demand.
* Fed will fight recession with more inflation.
* Democrats bribing voters with gas tax holiday.
* American investors watching their wealth evaporate.
* Falling Bitcoin proves it’s a poor hedge against the rising inflation.
* Russia invading Ukraine is the noise. Inflation is the music.
* Dry powder in cash is getting wet.
* The trend is not your friend if you’re Cathie Wood.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Thanks Tommy John. Get 20% off your 1st order https://tommyjohn.com/gold. See site for details.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/19/2022 • 56 minutes, 11 seconds
The Fed Is Running Out of Minutes – Ep 778
* Economic data blows away expectations.
* Wages are a price and prices are going up because of inflation.
* Keynesians can’t even follow their own playbook.
* Real demand is determined by supply.
* Don’t take free heroin just because you don’t want to waste it.
* Fed hawks went the way of the dodo bird.
* Fed policy is the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt’s Big Stick policy.
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/17/2022 • 45 minutes, 47 seconds
It’s Mission Impossible for the Fed – Ep 777
* Value stocks becoming the new momentum stocks.
* Previous momentum stocks pick up momentum in the wrong direction.
* Bitcoin’s reaction to Russia Ukraine tensions prove it’s the opposite of a safe haven.
* Consumer sentiment at its gloomiest in 11 years.
* Worst inflation numbers since 1982.
* Companies like Peloton hiding their price increases in delivery and service fees.
* Government is deliberately cooking the books on the CPI.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 20% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/12/2022 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 8 seconds
Markets Miss Important Fed Admission – Ep 776
* Momentum stocks rally.
* Gold inches higher under everyone’s radar.
* Investors distracted by Bitcoin’s bear market rally.
* Atlanta Fed President Bostic admits policy will be less loose, not tight.
* Original CPI change was intended as a stealth way to cut social security.
* Unemployment numbers don’t count people with covid.
* New jobs are currently being created by statisticians, not employers.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter.
Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 3/31/22
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/10/2022 • 55 minutes, 15 seconds
The Fed Will Lose an Inflation Fight – Ep 775
* Surprise earnings send Nasdaq on a roller coaster.
* Companies are paying the price for not raising their prices.
* Bitcoin trading above $40k, perhaps for the last time.
* $10/gallon gasoline on the horizon.
* Rising Euro will be problematic for the US economy.
* Jobs report reveals strength in inflation, not the labor market.
* Gold market shows investors are waking up to the Fed’s failing inflation fight.
* Markets punish discrimination; government rewards discrimination.
* Washington DC should pick a more appropriate name for their football team.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Go to https://babbel.com and use promo code GOLD to get 3 additional months when you purchase a 3 month subscription.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/5/2022 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 55 seconds
Sell the Rip, Don’t Buy the Dip – Ep 774
* The stock market is rotating, not crashing.
* Weak economic data will make it harder for the Fed to tighten.
* Fed may begin blaming rising oil prices on economic slowdown.
* Market will assign premium to companies producing earnings and paying dividends.
* Facebook abandons their cryptocurrency project, Libra.
* 6 more weeks of winter is nothing compare to the crypto winter ahead.
* National debt reaches $30 Trillion.
* The dollar is Monopoly money held up by a giant Ponzi scheme.
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. It could save you hundreds a year.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/3/2022 • 43 minutes, 46 seconds
The Bigger the Bubble, the Smaller the Pin – Ep 773
* January could end up being the worst month ever in the stock market.
* Worst is yet to come for Robinhood.
* Fed’s hawkish talk pushing the dollar higher and gold lower.
* Value investments continue to outperform growth investments.
* Consumers are buying less, but spending more.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 20% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/29/2022 • 52 minutes, 6 seconds
No Pivot: Powell Put Expires – Ep 772
* Jerome Powell surprises no one in FOMC meeting.
* Tesla is not Microsoft.
* Hedge fund sharks will smell blood on Cathie Wood.
* Bullish gold news ignored by traders.
* Powell confuses economic strength for an economic bubble.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31st
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/27/2022 • 46 minutes, 11 seconds
A Stock and Crypto Reversal, but Not a Bottom – Ep 771
* Stocks pump on potential Powell pivot.
* Fed trying to prevent its credibility and the market from imploding.
* More than two thirds of Bitcoin holders are underwater on their purchase.
* The gold standard didn’t fail.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/25/2022 • 46 minutes, 17 seconds
Risk Assets Crash Tests Fed’s Resolve – Ep 770
* Fed’s talk pricked the mother of all bubbles.
* Netflix becomes a victim of its own success.
* Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund sees an entire bear market in one week.
* Investors are no longer taking refuge in the US dollar.
* Tether is an accident waiting to happen.
* Pumpers are now conceding that Bitcoin is correlated to risk assets.
* There is no basis for owning Bitcoin.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 20% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/22/2022 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 51 seconds
The Most Obvious Crisis Almost No One Saw Coming – Ep 769
* Stock market is in bad shape, but bond market is worse.
* Silver rallies.
* Any negative yield in bonds is a positive for gold.
* Numbers on economy getting weaker as numbers on inflation get stronger.
* Fed can’t fix an inflation induced recession with more inflationary policies.
* The crash I wrote about in my 2007 book, Crashproof, is happening right now.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/19/2022 • 40 minutes, 26 seconds
2022 Kicks off the Great Rotation – Ep 768
* Oil prices headed for record highs.
* Massive rotation from growth stocks to value stocks in effect.
* Investors rushing to dump Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund.
* Grayscale Bitcoin Trust follows growth stocks decline.
* Gold will follow oil’s breakout.
* Lael Brainard should be fired, not promoted.
* The Fed is saving some jobs… the unproductive ones.
* Quantitative Easing has a disproportionately negative impact on minorities.
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. it could save you hundreds a year.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/15/2022 • 55 minutes, 45 seconds
Fed Unveils Field of Dreams Monetary Policy – Ep 767
* Official CPI is at its worst in 39 years.
* Real CPI is at its worst in history.
* Investors beginning to realize that the Fed is too little too late.
* Elizabeth Warren wants the Fed to blame inflation on price gouging.
* Democrats are laying the foundation for price controls.
* Paul Tudor Jones believes Bitcoin will do poorly in 2022.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31, 2022.
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/13/2022 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 41 seconds
Less Loose Will Lower Markets, Not Inflation – Ep 766
* Stock market off to a bad start for first week of trading in 2022.
* Fed minutes send bond markets tanking.
* Investors spooked out of speculative bets and into commodities.
* Inflation pressure building on producers and consumers.
* Workers fall further behind as prices increase faster than wages.
* Bitcoin chart looking ominous.
* El Salvador is underwater on their Bitcoin bet.
* Microstrategy balance sheet will soon have a big hole in it soon.
* Michael Saylor talks out of both sides of his mouth about US Dollar.
* NASA agrees, gold has intrinsic value.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.
Thanks Tommy John! Get 20% off your 1st order https://tommyjohn.com/gold.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/8/2022 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 18 seconds
The Year of Living Dangerously in Review – Ep 765
Peak speculation in 2021 lead to meme stocks, silly named crypto, NFTs, and all time record highs for:
* Issuance of SPACS
* Mergers & acquisitions
* Corporate buy-backs
* IPOs from money losing companies
* IPOs from regular companies
* Home loans
* Trade deficit
* Government borrowing in a non-recession year
* Bitcoin price
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/5/2022 • 1 hour, 41 seconds
2021: A Year of Peak Speculation – Ep 764
* Everyone is talking about inflation.
* Fed is re-rigging the CPI again to hide increasing inflation.
* Strong economies create surpluses, not deficits.
* US is importing more and exporting less.
* Prices up on lumber and other commodities.
* Bitcoin stole gold’s thunder in 2021.
* 2021 was a great year for Bitcoin sellers, but not buyers.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 10% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/31/2021 • 58 minutes, 11 seconds
Peak Inflation Is Nowhere in Sight – Ep 763
* Santa Claus rally comes early.
* Even Fed’s sugarcoated data shows inflation twice has high as their target.
* Gold may be turning its $1800 ceiling into a floor.
* Bitcoin pumps with risk assets.
* Record GBTC discount shows investors are losing interest in Bitcoin.
* Inflation will peak when people least expect it.
* Elon Musk wrote the biggest tax check to the US government in history.
* Elizabeth Warren is a freeloader.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/24/2021 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 36 seconds
The Era of Low Inflation Was Transitory – Ep 762
* Chinese imports have kept a lid on goods prices, but not services.
* Dollar will decline when foreign investors no longer want US stocks.
* We now have more inflation and less ability to deal with it than in the 1970s.
* US may soon trade used American cars for used Chinese bikes.
* The US Dollar is still backed by more than Bitcoin is.
Thanks https://avast.com!
Thanks Mack Weldon. For 20% off your first order, visit https://mackweldon.com/gold with promo code GOLD
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/18/2021 • 58 minutes, 58 seconds
A Dove Can’t Change Its Feathers – Ep 761
* Elizabeth Warren blames inflation on greedy business owners.
* Producers aren’t price gouging. They’re being gouged.
* Fed should stop QE now, not just taper it.
* Retail consumers are buying less and paying more.
* Congress raises the debt ceiling $2.5 Trillion.
* History will judge Jerome Powell before his second term ends.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/16/2021 • 1 hour, 56 seconds
Government Rigged the CPI to Understate Inflation – Ep 760
* October and November see biggest back to back CPI increase of the year.
* 2021 inflation was worse than any year in the 1970s.
* Rigged CPI adds to government revenue.
* Jussie Smollett hangs himself with fake noose story.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Thanks Theragun. Go to https://therabody.com/peter to try Theragun for THIRTY-DAYS starting at $199.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/11/2021 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 22 seconds
Crypto Hearing: Irony, Lies, and Hypocrisy – Ep 759
* Bitcoin continues to lose ground to Ethereum.
* Maxine Waters leads Congressional hearing on crypto.
* FDIC made banking less safe.
* Bitcoin competes with 14,000 other cryptocurrencies, but not the US dollar.
* Michael Saylor sails off the deep end.
* Bitcoin will lead to greater racial divide in wealth.
* Discount on Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shows institutions are not rushing into Bitcoin.
* Ark Invest launches new Transparency ETF.
* Cathie Wood is the epitome of “this time it’s different”
* Most people have lost money who have invested in Ark ETFs.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold.
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. it could save you hundreds a year.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/10/2021 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 29 seconds
A Fed Policy Error That Will Live In Infamy – Ep 758
* Markets recover most all of their Black Friday losses.
* Fed can’t fight inflation without deflating inflated economic bubble.
* Data shows biggest drop in productivity in 62 years.
* Consumer prices are headed much higher.
* Real wages are headed much lower.
* Bitcoin is a lousy store of value in terms of Ethereum.
* Americans made real sacrifices during World War 2, not during the war on Covid.
* US would have to fund a war with China by borrowing money from China.
Thanks Raycon! For a limited time, go to https://buyraycon.com/gold and use code HOLIDAY for up to 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Thanks FEALS. Become a member at https://feals.com/gold and get 40% off your first three months with free shipping
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/8/2021 • 55 minutes, 10 seconds
Do Weak Stocks in Dec. Portend Fed Ease in Jan? – Ep 757
* Nasdaq suffers worst start to December in 20 years.
* Stay-at-home darling stocks crash with no bottom in sight.
* Covid is the gift that keeps on giving the Fed excuses.
* Real unemployment rate is much higher than 10%.
* Biggest fools now are those buying Bitcoin.
* Maxine Waters pats herself on the back for giving away other people’s money.
* Janet Yellen wants to postpone big catastrophe now for bigger catastrophe later.
* Jerome Powell admits he now sees a substantial risk of persistent inflation.
For a limited time, buy any 3-month Mint Mobile plan and get 3 more months FREE at https://mintmobile.com/gold
Thanks Aura Frames. Get $30 off your order by going to https://auraframes.com with promo code GOLD
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/4/2021 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 46 seconds
Powell Finally Admits Inflation Isn’t Transitory – Ep 756
* Dow down over 1300 points in 2 days over Omicron variant concerns.
* Bubble market found its pin.
* Powell is essentially a member of the Biden administration.
* The only tools the Fed has left will destroy the bubble economy if they use them.
* Powell lies about the credit worthiness of the US.
* Ray Dalio says the only thing the Fed will successfully raise will be prices.
* Build Back better targets the middle class with new bank account monitoring.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter.
Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021.
Thanks Theragun. Go to https://therabody.com/peter to try Theragun for THIRTY-DAYS starting at $199.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/1/2021 • 57 minutes, 17 seconds
Black Friday Leaves Investors Black and Blue – Ep 755
* Covid crashes market again with new Omicron Strain.
* Dow suffers its worst drop since Covid lockdowns started.
* Investors choose Euro and Swiss Franc over US Dollar as safe haven.
* Markets begin pricing out rate hikes that they previously priced in.
* Smart money dumps crypto while dumb money buys the dips.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 10% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER
Mene's 24k gold jewelry is giving my listeners 5% off their purchase at https://mene.com/?promo=schiff
Use promo code "SCHIFF" at checkout. Offer expires December 2nd, 2021.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/27/2021 • 42 minutes, 24 seconds
Thanksgiving: How Capitalism Saved America From Socialism – Ep 754
* 2021 marks the most expensive Thanksgiving dinner ever.
* Oil companies can’t pump oil as fast as the Fed can print money.
* Pilgrims set sail for Communism, but landed on Capitalism.
* Desperate Americans look to crypto as a ticket to wealth.
* Bitcoin is fiat and people will lose faith in it like other fiats.
* Alex Mashinsky of Celsius tells desperate Americans to take out loans to buy Bitcoin.
* CNBC hosts an hour-long special shilling Bitcoin.
* Cathie Woods is bullish on Bitcoin, but expects deflation.
* Wherever inflation starts, it always ends up at the supermarket.
* Fed can’t fight inflation and bail out the housing market at the same time.
* Even Fed’s preferred data shows they are miles above their inflation target.
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/25/2021 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 31 seconds
The Devil You Know Is Still a Devil – Ep 753
* Biden reappoints Powel as Fed Chairman and promotes Brainard to Vice Chair.
* Gold sells off and dollar rises on Fed news.
* Investors worried about inflation under Powell two days ago now celebrate Powell’s reappointment.
* If Biden wanted to fight inflation, he’d stop creating it.
* Generation of entitled American socialists don’t think stealing is wrong.
* MSNBC promotes racism.
* Law abiding citizens don’t use cars or guns to kill people.
* Rittenhouse trial being used to promote Communism.
Thanks Raycon! For a limited time, go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for up to 20% off your entire Raycon
order.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/24/2021 • 58 minutes, 48 seconds
Rittenhouse Innocent, Government Guilty on All Accounts – Ep 752
* Socialists are the only ones who believe Biden’s bill will Build Back Better.
* Democrats accidentally admit that inflation is caused by expanding deficit and money printing.
* The rich don’t have to cheat on their taxes like the middle class does.
* Government wants to give all workers a 4 week paid vacation every year.
* Government attack on civil liberties has crypto crowd concerned.
* Kyle Rittenhouse innocent on all accounts.
Thanks https://avast.com!
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. it could save you hundreds a year.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/20/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 8 seconds
Government Recycles 1970s Inflation Propaganda – Ep 751
* Janet Yellen lies to the nation.
* The Fed doesn’t want to let the peoples’ cost of living decrease.
* 2% inflation isn’t a target; it’s a floor.
* Retail investors move from bubble to bubble without learning any lessons.
* Sell your Bitcoin before Logan Paul’s audience does.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/17/2021 • 58 minutes, 33 seconds
Fed’s Credibility Is Transitory, Not Inflation – Ep 750
* CPI data heavily contradicts Fed’s transitory inflation narrative.
* Reagan was more popular during a recession than Biden is during this “booming” economy.
* The government has too much money on the line not to lie about inflation.
* Media’s bias taints their inflation reporting.
* Federal Reserve can print money, but they can’t print stuff.
* Biden’s Build Back Better plan would have even Keynes rolling in his grave.
* Biden considers releasing US strategic oil reserves to China.
* Consumer sentiment plunges.
* Gold price surges.
* Fed won’t try to fight inflation because it will reveal their weak position.
* Fed’s policy: Speak loudly when you have no stick.
* Falling dollar will be the next domino to fall.
* Record number of Americans tell their employer to take job and shove it.
* Bitcoin whales conning institutions and bribing politicians.
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold
Thanks https://avast.com!
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/13/2021 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 49 seconds
Consumers on the Hook for Rising Producer Prices – Ep 749
* Supply shortages exacerbated by consumers reading the inflation writing on the wall.
* Gas prices at the pump close to all time record highs in most of the country.
* Dollar is being propped up by taper.
* The crypto market has flipped the gold market.
* Joe Biden looks to replace Jerome Powell with Lael Brainard.
* Is Elon Musk sending a message to the government, or is he trying to sneak out of his overpriced Tesla stock?
* Government should be financed through consumption, not income.
Thanks Raycon!. For a limited time, go to https://buyraycon.com/gold for up to 20% off your entire Raycon order.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/10/2021 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 15 seconds
Gold’s Surprise Rally Shows Sellers Are Exhausted – Ep 748
* Press knows Biden doesn’t have the aptitude to even answer softball questions.
* Record high stock market eyes blue skies ahead.
* As Peloton bikes become overpriced clothes racks, Peloton stock becomes dirty laundry.
* Gold may end up being the pin that pricks the Bitcoin bubble.
* The IRS tricked the middle class.
Get your new wireless plan for just $15 a month. https://mintmobile.com/gold
Thanks Mack Weldon. For 20% off your first order, visit https://mackweldon.com/gold with promo code GOLD
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/6/2021 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 4 seconds
Fed Finally Launches the Taper, Now What? – Ep 747
* Markets blessed Fed’s decision to begin tapering.
* Jerome Powell says economy is healthy, but requires monetary policy of an economy in crisis.
* Full employment is subjective and rarely achieved.
* Powellnomics: It’s inappropriate to have interest rates above 0% in an economy that’s not at 100% employment.
* Fed knows the economy is hanging by a threads, and that thread is 0% interest rates.
* It doesn’t matter who the President of the United States is. What matters is who runs the Federal Reserve.
* Dollar falling may be investors buying the rumor and selling the news.
* No bad news in sight for gold, and no good news in sight for the dollar.
* Don’t pick up pennies in front of steam rollers.
* Zillow’s moronic house flipping business model caves.
* Don’t confuse brains for a bull market or a bubble.
* Taper is fully priced into gold and silver market.
* Don’t jump onto a moving train; get on it before it leaves the station.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/4/2021 • 55 minutes, 47 seconds
Shiba Inu Highlights Bitcoin’s Lack of Scarcity – Ep 746
* Nasdaq and S&P finish the week strong.
* Robinhood closes the week near its all time low.
* Newmont leads gold mining stocks lower.
* Gold mines don’t lose missed earnings, they postpone them.
* Crypto ships will rise and sink on the same tide of fear and greed.
* Inflation is driving up labor costs.
* Hypocrisy is the one thing all politicians have in common.
Thanks https://avast.com!
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. It could save you hundreds a year.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/30/2021 • 56 minutes, 24 seconds
Markets Can’t Ignore Exploding Trade Deficits Forever – Ep 745
* US dollar would tank if traders understood implications of economic data.
* Trade deficit continues to break records month after month.
* Strong economies have trade surpluses; we have a bubble economy.
* We’re only consuming and importing because we’re printing a currency the world still values.
* Massive trade deficits aren’t a problem until they’re a crisis.
* Government pretends rights are privileges so it can tax them.
* Moral hazard and rampant fraud will ramp up childcare costs under new Biden plan.
One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/29/2021 • 44 minutes, 38 seconds
Irrational Exuberance on Steroids – Ep 744
* Elon Musk needs a rocket ship to find Tesla’s PE.
* Bakkt Holdings rises on crypto partnership with MasterCard.
* Jack Dorsey warns of imminent hyperinflation.
* Stanley Druckenmiller doesn’t realize the Fed is the problem.
* When politicians aim their weapons at the billionaires, they always hit the middle class the hardest.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/27/2021 • 59 minutes, 12 seconds
Written off for Dead, Gold Comes Back to Life – Ep 743
* Netflix and Tesla stocks make all time highs.
* Trump SPAC makes a splash.
* Investors buying WeWork SPAC are putting lipstick on a pig.
* Gold price gains on inflation news, which means bigger gains may be around the corner.
* Oil price increases while oil production decreases.
* Inflation in 2022 will eclipse inflation in 2021.
* Weak economic indicators signal the opposite of a booming economy.
* Inflation is the government’s silent partner.
* America’s increased spending and reduced production will be paid for with inflation.
* Bitcoin ETF flops.
* Logan Paul and Peter Schiff is the collab we didn’t know we needed.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 10% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/23/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 37 seconds
Inflation Is Not the Price of Prosperity – Ep 742
* Bonds are never a safe haven against inflation.
* Consumers can’t afford to buy houses for what it costs builders to construct them.
* Zillow bails on home flipping business.
* Biden describes inflation as a high class problem.
* US government now using Soviet propaganda tactics to explain inflation.
* Bitcoin futures ETF BITO is the antithesis of what Bitcoin is supposed to stand for.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021.
Thanks FEALS. Become a member at https://feals.com/gold and get 40% off your first three months with free shipping
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/20/2021 • 55 minutes, 1 second
Soaring Inflation Suppresses Consumer Confidence – Ep 741
* Markets turn risk on.
* Producer prices rise to levels not seen since peak inflation of the 1970s.
* Inflation is double the Fed’s benchmark now and will be triple by year end.
* Bitcoin rallies on ETF news, but will likely sell off on ETF launch.
* Putting profits first is putting people first.
* The Art Institute of Chicago fires their volunteer staff for the color of their skin.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
Thanks https://avast.com!
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/16/2021 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 48 seconds
Entering an Inflation Super Cycle – Ep 740
* Expecting accurate inflation reports from the government is like expecting accurate crime reports from the mafia.
* Dollar falls and gold rises as investors begin to see through Fed’s fantasies.
* Inflation is here to stay and markets may finally be acknowledging that reality.
* Only the government can make the prices of everything go up all at once.
* Biden risks the health of journalists so he can create the appearance of press conferences.
* The crypto casino is an even bigger casino than the stock market.
Thanks Raycon!. Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/14/2021 • 59 minutes, 15 seconds
Weak Jobs & Bonds + Strong Oil = Stagflation – Ep 739
* Jobs numbers come in lower than anyone expected.
* Investors aren’t buying gold as an inflation hedge because they don’t think there is any real inflation to hedge.
* Buying gold won’t be as hard as selling bitcoin.
* US lead tax cartel pushing the world to less freedom through collusion.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package. https://expressvpn.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/9/2021 • 51 minutes, 49 seconds
Inflation Burns While the Fed Fiddles – Ep 738
* Gold stocks going down because investors are disappointed they aren’t going up.
* Fed President Jim Bullard admits inflation is here to stay.
* The digital revolution has made gold more valuable than ever.
* Jerome Powell on the chopping block means the Fed’s composition may soon change for the worse
* Janet Yellen wants to remove the debt ceiling entirely.
* The individual is above society.
* The federal government uses extortion to circumvent the constitution.
Get your new wireless plan for just $15 a month. https://mintmobile.com/gold
Thanks Raycon! Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/6/2021 • 58 minutes, 35 seconds
Government Creates Problems. Its Solutions Make Them Worse – Ep 737
* Markets rally on news of Merck Covid pill.
* Drug efficacy should be left to the market, not the government.
* FDA sacrifices human beings like lab rats.
* Ray Dalio chooses gold over Bitcoin.
* Home sales numbers are exaggerated by institutional flippers.
* Zillow shareholders set up for huge losses.
* Government involvement in education has driven costs up and quality down.
Thanks https://avast.com!
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/2/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 4 seconds
Powell Sings a Different Tune – Ep 736
* Political theater plays out over the debt ceiling.
* US was biggest gainer from low interest rates, but will be biggest losers when rates are high.
* IRS continues its attack on lower and middle income Americans.
* Getting into bed with the government will get you screwed.
* Cost of having a bank account will get more expensive.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 10% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/1/2021 • 54 minutes, 15 seconds
Inflation Talk Tanks Markets – Ep 735
* Fed has become an arm of the US Treasury.
* Powell admits inflation problem is bigger and worse than he predicted.
* Investors rush back into energy stocks.
* Natural gas prices hit multi-year high.
* Taper trades are in; markets moving back into the inflation trade.
* Janet Yellen would be fired and sued if she managed a private company’s treasury like this.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through September 30, 2021.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/29/2021 • 56 minutes, 20 seconds
Taper Already Priced In. Now What? – Ep 734
* Less dovish is not hawkish.
* Mother of all bear markets in bonds may have just begun.
* Republicans only care about deficits and spending when Democrats are in charge.
* Plans for minting $1 trillion platinum coin would officially make the U.S. a banana republic.
* Increase in home inventory could lead to decrease in home prices.
* Standard of living will drop for American service workers as their pay decreases and the prices of products they buy increase.
* Bitcoin can’t be digital gold if Bitcoin trades the opposite of gold.
* Buying Bitcoin is gambling, not investing, and governments regulate gambling.
Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features.
Thanks https://avast.com!
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/25/2021 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 50 seconds
The Fed That Cried Taper – Ep 733
* Fed says the economy is great, but they will maintain the emergency policies they put in place when the economy was terrible.
* Fed will always choose to fight unemployment over #inflation.
* Fed turns blind eye to inflation because the alternative is a complete economic implosion.
* Fed’s policies disproportionately hurt African Americans.
* Republicans only care about the debt ceiling when they can use it as a political weapon.
* Jerome Powell dismisses concerns over #Evergrande and excess corporate leverage.
* Gold will explode and the dollar will implode when markets start to realize the #Fed keeps crying wolf.
* Gold went up with safe havens while Bitcoin fell with risk assets.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through September 30, 2021.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/23/2021 • 45 minutes, 30 seconds
Paying More, but Buying Less – Ep 732
* China won’t let Evergrande be the next Lehman Brothers.
* Fed took us 1 step forward and 100 steps back.
* Higher retail sales doesn’t mean consumers are buying more.
* Americans are least likely to buy a new car since 1974.
* Sweden sets successful example for dealing with Covid.
* America is worse off for invading Iraq.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
For a limited time, get 40% off a Calm Premium subscription at https://Calm.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/18/2021 • 54 minutes, 58 seconds
When There’s Too Much Money, There’s Never Enough Stuff – Ep 731
* Take the CPI numbers with a grain of salt.
* The CPI will catch up to the PPI.
* Fed’s new definition of transitory means a permanent reduction in standard of living.
* The problem isn’t a shortage of stuff, it’s an excess of money.
* Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
* Consumers are expecting higher prices.
* Gold stocks mark potential turning point.
* Inflation will pay for government spending, middle class will pay for inflation.
* Hedge funds buy preferential tax treatment from politicians.
Thanks Raycon! Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/15/2021 • 57 minutes, 44 seconds
Government Is Consistent; It Always Lies – Ep 730
* Producer Price Index numbers come in higher than expected for 9th month in a row.
* Inflation trends show no sign of being transitory.
* When you properly define inflation, you know exactly who’s causing it.
* Bitcoin whales want the minnow’s cash.
* There are more job openings than unemployed people.
* Left shows its true colors after hate crime against Larry Elder.
* Media buries stories of racist Democrats.
* The government took away our freedom so the terrorists wouldn’t have to.
* Tax havens keep a lid on taxes everywhere else.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through September 30, 2021.
Become a Firstleaf member and get 6 bottles of wine for $29.95 and free shipping https://TryFirstLeaf.com/GOLD
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/11/2021 • 1 hour, 6 minutes, 22 seconds
Let’s Replace Labor Day With Entrepreneur Day – Ep 729
* Grover Cleveland was really a libertarian and one of our greatest presidents.
* The populist movement lead to Labor Day and ultimately in 1913 to the The Federal Income tax, The Federal Reserve, and the popular election of U.S. Senators.
* The Woodrow Wilson presidency proved to be a disaster for America.
* Washington incumbents have rigged the system.
* Workers have benefited from entrepreneurs, despite the drag of labor unions.
* Henry Ford’s risk taking resulted in higher wages for his workers and cheaper cars for his customers.
* Business owners are in the crosshairs of the government.
Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package: https://expressvpn.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/6/2021 • 59 minutes, 38 seconds
Summer Data Swoon Puts Fall Taper in Doubt – Ep 728
* Jobs numbers disappoint expectations, but Biden brags.
* Inflation expectations highest since just before 2008 financial crisis.
* AOC pressures Biden to nominate a more woke Fed chair.
* Fed causing a lack of savings, which pushes up asset prices and makes the rich richer.
* Gold prices calling Fed’s bluff on tightening.
* If Bitcoin is better than gold, Ethereum must be better than Bitcoin.
* Markets not sure if bad news is good news or if bad news is bad news.
Get your new wireless plan for just $15 a month. https://mintmobile.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/4/2021 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 2 seconds
Tapering the Taper Talk – Ep 727
* Powell offers no clues on taper timetable.
* Powell vows to keep interest rates low until QE is finished.
* Powel blames price increases on exploding demand and lack of supply.
* Powel blames inflation on the public’s expectations.
* Fed’s only goal is to delay the inevitable crisis as long as possible.
* Invest in gold stocks before they recover ground they never should have lost.
* Afghanistan proved to the world that the US is no longer a military or economic super power.
* America’s biggest export may soon be our used cars.
For a limited time, get 40% off a Calm Premium subscription at https://calm.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/28/2021 • 54 minutes, 20 seconds
Less Loose Is Not Tight – Ep 726
* Fed will talk about tapering until it can use Delta as an excuse not to.
* Bitcoin is irrelevant to monetary policy.
* Accepting Bitcoin for mortgage payments is a publicity stunt, not a use case.
* Fed uses owner’s equivalent rent data to hide the scarier actual rent data.
* FDR may have killed the dollar, but Nixon helped bury it.
Thanks FEALS. Become a member at https://feals.com/gold and you'll get 50% off your first order with free shipping.
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. It could save you hundreds a year.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/21/2021 • 1 hour, 25 seconds
Stimulus Even Harder to Exit Than Afghanistan – Ep 725
* Markets spooked by CNBC interview with Boston Fed President.
* Higher inflation leads to more poverty and a wider wealth gap.
* Food stamps are really money stamps.
* Media campaigns to soften up the public to inflation.
* Stimulus postponed the pain for some, but it’s about to come due.
* Jerome Powell warns Americans to prepare for a recession.
* Fed created a dollar crisis in response to the looming financial crisis.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/18/2021 • 47 minutes, 6 seconds
Fifty Years of Fiat Failure – Ep 724
* Rising costs increasing producer pricing.
* US home prices rising at fastest pace in history while affordability hits record low.
* Trade deficit continues its path higher.
* Inflation exposed in increased export prices.
* The whole of this tightening cycle will be all talk and no rate hikes.
* Consumer sentiment goes lower as consumer prices go higher.
* Fed in Catch-22 with consumer sentiment.
* We left the gold standard 50 years and may soon leave the dollar standard.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/14/2021 • 57 minutes, 54 seconds
Larger Deficits Mean Higher Inflation – Ep 723
* Gold reacts counterintuitively to inflation fears.
* Fed changes the definition of transitory inflation.
* Q2 Productivity numbers disappoint analysts.
* Biggest government expansion of the welfare state since the New Deal and Great Society.
* Elizabeth Warren wants to sick the IRS on the middle class.
* AMC tries to pump their stock as a crypto play.
* Bitcoin will live and die by the gold sword.
Thanks Raycon! Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/12/2021 • 50 minutes
Markets Move on Fantasy, Ignore Reality – Ep 722
* Wall Street trading on “garbage in, garbage out” algorithm.
* Another month, another record trade deficit.
* Moratorium on student loan payments extended.
* Eviction moratorium will send rent prices skyrocketing.
* Supreme Court says eviction moratorium is unconstitutional; Biden extends it anyway.
* AOC says we have a supply and demand problem.
* CNBC baits Lyft CEO for a Bitcoin headline.
Become a Firstleaf member and get 6 bottles of wine for $29.95 and free shipping https://tryfirstleaf.com/gold
INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/7/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 58 seconds
Central Banks Have Inflated the Mother of All Bubbles – Ep 721
* Jack Dorsey’s Square acquires Afterpay in largest corporate takeover in Australian history.
* Activision discriminates against Republicans, not women.
* Black Women’s Equal Pay Day is based on nonsense.
* Gender pay gap in women’s soccer is a result of their own choices.
Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package. https:/expressvpn.com/gold
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/4/2021 • 1 hour, 11 minutes, 18 seconds
Inflation: Stealth Default, Fake Growth – Ep 720
* Inflation creating illusion of economic growth.
* Oil prices go up, but energy stocks get beat up.
* Fed won’t wage a war on inflation, never mind win it.
* Robinhood steals from the poor and gives to a few rich hedge funds.
* Saylor’s Bitcoin comparisons are nonsense.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/31/2021 • 43 minutes, 7 seconds
It’s Game Over if Investors Call Powell’s Bluff – Ep 719
* Trade deficit isn’t a problem until it’s a crisis.
* Home sales fall while home prices rise.
* Rent prices increased 25% year over year.
* Fed’s only monetary policy is talk.
* Markets may have begun calling the Fed’s bluff.
* Powell finally admits this inflation is permanent.
Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. It could save you hundreds a year.
Get your new wireless plan for just $15 a month. https://mintmobile.com/gold
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/29/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 9 seconds
Bad Policy Disables Economies in China and America – Ep 718
* High roads don’t win votes.
* The road to hell is paved with good intentions and is wheelchair accessible.
* Bitcoin rallies on its slope of hope.
* China cracks down on private education.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter.
Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through September 30, 2021.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/27/2021 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 16 seconds
COVID Isn’t the Reason Markets Got Sick – Ep 717
* Bitcoin gets skipped over in investors’ rush to safe havens.
* Gold mining stocks have never been a better deal.
* Fiscal stimulus without monetary stimulus is no longer possible.
* Bitcoin has a sucker’s rally after getting comfortable below $30k.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Get 10% off your first purchase as a new customer by going to
https://truniagen.com/peter with the promo code PETER
For a limited time, get 40% off a Calm Premium subscription at https://calm.com/gold
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/21/2021 • 1 hour, 52 seconds
PBS Frontline Misses the Fed’s Real Power to Destroy – Ep 716
* The power to inflate is the power to destroy.
Fed ensures most Americans are living on the edge.
* Quantitative Easing is just another word for government debt monetization.
* We’re always just one bubble away from the next financial crisis.
* Government creates a moral hazard with every subsidy it gets involved in.
* Power is most dangerous when it’s not understood by those wielding it.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter.
Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through September 30, 2021.
Redeem your 30-day trial for only 99¢ at https://Literati.com/gold
Watch The Housing Bubble film: https://letusdisagree.com/
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/19/2021 • 1 hour, 16 minutes, 44 seconds
Fed Bets the Farm on Transitory Inflation – Ep 715
* Government data says inflation worse than the 80s; real data says inflation already worse than the 70s.
* Hypocritical Republicans criticize Biden for the same policies they pushed for under Trump.
* Jerome Powell claims economy is great, but it needs the same amount of stimulus as when it was crashing.
* Fed claims to have the tools to fight inflation if it gets too high, but not using them now proves they don’t.
* Powell admits people aren’t working because they’re being paid not to.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Thanks Raycon!. Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/16/2021 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 22 seconds
CPI and PPI Expose Transitory Inflation Ruse – Ep 714
* Fed forced to admit that inflation will be higher and last longer than they predicted.
* June CPI numbers come in almost double Fed’s expectations.
* Highest monthly CPI increase in 13 years.
* Stock indexes are not a hedge against inflation.
* Producer costs are rising faster than consumer prices.
* Consumer prices are rising faster than wages.
* No signs that inflation is transitory in the oil market.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/14/2021 • 49 minutes, 53 seconds
Lies That Central Bankers and Bitcoin Pumpers Tell – Ep 713
* Oil prices break their winning streak.
* As stimulus runs out, Americans reach record high in consumer credit.
* ECB vows to increase cost of living for Europeans.
* Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin spin should fool no one.
Become a Firstleaf member and get 6 bottles of wine for $29.95 and free shipping https://TryFirstLeaf.com/GOLD
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/10/2021 • 54 minutes, 34 seconds
Markets Are Bracing For the Wrong Impact – Ep 712
* Bitcoin and other risky assets being sold off.
* Investors flee to gold and other safe havens.
* Fed goes from thinking about thinking about tapering to talking about talking about it.
* Supply of starter homes at 50 year low.
* Buying Bitcoin is as risky as it’s ever been.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter.
Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through Sept. 30, 2021.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/8/2021 • 50 minutes, 58 seconds
All Americans Can Celebrate Independence Day – Ep 711
* Oil marches toward record highs in Europe.
* Inflation disguised in new restaurant fees.
* The Constitution applies to all Americans.
* Slave trade started and ended in Africa, not the United States.
* Slavery was outlawed in the US before anywhere else in the world.
Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package. https://Expressvpn.com/gold
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/6/2021 • 53 minutes, 34 seconds
Unemployment and Prices Rising Together – Ep 710
* Inflation spilling into the labor market.
* Pressures pushing dollar down and costs up.
* What does Basel III mean for gold?
* CNBC pundits are as clueless now as they were in 2006 and 2007.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/2/2021 • 44 minutes, 45 seconds
Government Protected Monopolies Are the Only Ones to Fear – Ep 709
* Facebook anti-trust case thrown out of court.
* Breaking up monopolies protects the competitors, not the consumers.
* John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil was a perfect model of free market efficiency.
* Consumers are indirectly price gouged by labor unions.
* Labor unions destroyed jobs and wages for laborers.
* Government unions should be illegal.
* San Francisco buys $70,000 tents for the homeless.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter.
Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through Sept. 30, 2021.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/30/2021 • 58 minutes, 11 seconds
Everything Is Awesome Because the Fed Says so – Ep 708
* Bond market sells off for opposite reason it rallied a week prior.
* Institutions are not rushing in to buy #Bitcoin.
* Huge Socialist agenda moving forward using #covid as the excuse.
* #Biden vows to grow government and use it against entrepreneurs and small business owners.
* We’ve barely begun to pay the piper for all the inflation the Fed has created.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Get 10% off your first purchase as a new customer by going to https://www.truniagen.com/peter with the promo code PETER
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/27/2021 • 47 minutes, 7 seconds
Political Hypocrisy on Inflation Lets Fed Escape Blame – Ep 707
* Fed triples its estimated duration of transitory inflation.
* Republicans have no credibility to criticize government spending and money printing.
* Fed vows to make the rich richer and the poor poorer by focusing on employment rather than inflation.
* Jerome Powell refuses to acknowledge whether being paid more to not work discourages employment.
* Republicans won’t put blame on the Fed, because they benefit more from blaming the Democrats.
* Maxine Waters praises Jerome Powell on his irresponsible leadership.
Redeem your free trial at https://Literati.com/Gold
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/25/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 28 seconds
Investors Call Bullard Bluff – Ep 706
* Markets begin to comprehend the Fed’s powerless against inflation.
* Oil prices may put the nail in the coffin of transitory inflation.
* Crypto traders unload their Bitcoin on Microstrategy. Microstrategy’s diamond hands are made of glass.
* Barry Silbert hesitates on buying GBTC shares.
* Tesla’s Bitcoin gamble enters into the red.
* Government creating moral hazards in rental housing markets.
* Why pay your rent when the government will pay it for you?
* The government has become our master and we’re all its servants.
* Liberals care about stacking the deck, not fairness.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/Peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through June 30, 2021.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/22/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 28 seconds
Juneteenth Is Only the Beginning – Ep 705
*
Democrats using racism to pass the legislation they’ve always wanted.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/19/2021 • 41 minutes, 51 seconds
The Fed’s “No Stick” Monetary Policy – Ep 704
* Jim Bullard undoes Jerome Powell’s damage control.
* Fed goes from not thinking about thinking about raising interest rates to now talking about talking about raising interest rates.
* Fed’s monetary tightening is as believable as George Costanza’s house in The Hamptons.
* Bitcoin looks for lower support.
Thanks Clear. For a limited time, get your first two months of Clear for free by going to https://Clearme.com/GOLD2 and use the promo code GOLD2
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/19/2021 • 51 minutes, 14 seconds
Inflation Doves Coming Home to Roost – Ep 703
* Trade data uncovers what the CPI was hiding.
* Fed acknowledges the obvious; inflation is higher than 2%.
* Fed gives no indication of taper plans.
* Jerome Powell out-doves himself again.
* Paul Tudor Jones gets a gift from the Fed.
* JP Morgan does not believe inflation is mandatory.
* Economy has a collision course coming with reality.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/17/2021 • 40 minutes, 54 seconds
Despite Data, Markets Embrace Transitory Inflation – Ep 702
* Economic data disappoints.
* Sean Hannity to Tucker Carlson: Peter Schiff was right!
* Paul Tudor Jones going all in on inflation trade.
* Bitcoin moves again on Elon Musk tweets.
* Congress proposes Patriot Tax, which isn’t constitutional or patriotic.
* Paying as little tax as possible is a patriotic duty.
Check out Ladder today to see if you’re instantly approved, go to https://ladderlife.com/GOLD
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/15/2021 • 50 minutes, 35 seconds
The Fed Flunks Monetary Policy – Ep 701
* Worse than expected inflation report furthers transitory fantasy.
* Fed failing its mandates.
* IRS abates my excessive $1.4M penalty.
* US using Covid to keep citizens from getting passports.
Thanks Raycon!. Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Thanks to ItsEasy Passport & Visa for helping me out! Check out their website to see how they can help you too: https://www.itseasy.com/
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/12/2021 • 53 minutes, 27 seconds
Surging Inflation Is Anything but Transitory – Ep 700
* Consumer prices on the rise and going higher.
* Markets figuring out the Fed can’t fix Inflation.
* Trump calls Bitcoin a scam.
* Michael Saylor goes on damage control with Hannity.
* Biden’s administration wages class warfare against rich with IRS leak.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through June 30th, 2021.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/11/2021 • 54 minutes, 6 seconds
Financial Media Downplays Inflation Risk – Ep 699
* Inflation is on the rise and so is denial about it.
* Oil prices reach their highest levels since Covid began.
* Broken bond market and rising stock market are not evidence of low inflation.
* Janet Yellen admits higher inflation is coming, but says it’s a good thing.
* Global minimum tax is a big negative for the world.
* Bitcoin 2021 cult member love fest comes to an end in Miami.
* Michael Saylor goes into more debt desperately trying to keep Bitcoin from collapsing.
* The world will not be following El Salvador’s economic lead.
Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package. https://Expressvpn.com/gold
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/9/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 41 seconds
The U.S Dollar Is a Meme Currency – Ep 698
* Contradictory jobs reports creating market volatility.
* Russia begins dumping dollars and buying other currencies and gold.
* AMC buyers think they’re sticking it to the man as they hand their money to institutions.
* Bitcoin 2021 kicks off in Miami.
* Ron Paul does not believe in Bitcoin.
* Gold has never been easier or cheaper to authenticate.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31, 2021
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/5/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 25 seconds
Americans Lost Every War – Ep 697
* Falling Dollar elevating Yuan.
* China increases its child limit.
* Ray Dalio didn’t endorse Bitcoin; he condemned treasury bonds.
* American soldiers died protecting our freedoms, but our freedoms didn’t survive the wars.
* Truth in advertising should apply to legislation.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/31/2021 • 49 minutes, 53 seconds
Traders Begin to Realize Higher Inflation Is Bullish for Gold – Ep 696
* The Great Rotation is underway.
* Gold closes the month with its highest monthly close since August 2020.
* Headline PCE has biggest rise in 13 years.
* Core CPE has biggest rise in 25 years.
* Rent rises 5.4%. Food rises 28%.
* Traders waking up to reality that inflation is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold.
* JP Morgan risks their clients’ investments to collect their fees.
* Government budgets are just optimistic wishlists.
Thanks Tru Niagen. Get 10% off your first purchase as a new customer by going to https://truniagen.com/PETER with the promo code PETER
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/29/2021 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 55 seconds
Inflation Tax Already Destroying Purchasing Power – Ep 695
* Gold close to breakout and dollar close to break down.
* Fed admits unpleasant inflation is a possibility.
* Major disappointment in home buyer data.
* Surplus of money is pricing Americans out of the home and automobile market.
* Government begins blaming companies for higher prices instead of inflation.
* Don’t let your money retire before you do.
* Warning signs of crypto bubble popping.
Free $75 sponsored job credit at https://Indeed.com/peter.
Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through June 30, 2021.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/26/2021 • 56 minutes, 43 seconds
Bitcoin Is Nothing Like Gold – Ep 694
* Rotation continues from momentum to value as Bitcoin investors turn to gold.
* China is the excuse, not the reason for the Bitcoin bubble bursting.
* This Crypto Winter may be the longest and most brutal of all.
* Dave Portnoy shills Safemoon gimmick.
* Coinbase may be the biggest failure vs. expectations of any IPO in history.
* Crypto crash ushers in bear market for Tesla, Square, Microstrategy, Riot Blockchain, Galaxy Digital.
* Gold is in a solid bull market making new highs.
* Paul Krugman is right on Bitcoin and wrong on gold.
* The US is now officially a Banana Republic without the bananas.
Check out Ladder today to see if you’re instantly approved, go to https://ladderlife.com/GOLD
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/22/2021 • 56 minutes, 35 seconds
Crypto Crash. Buy the Dip or Sell the Rip? – Ep 693
* Bitcoin proves it is not a safe haven asset.
* Investors begin rotation from Bitcoin to gold.
* Bitcoin is the white whale and Michael Saylor is Captain Ahab.
* Anthony Pompliano wants your cash, not your Bitcoin.
* Gold investors spooked by suggestion of a possible discussion to potentially think about talking about tapering.
* US Dollar crash may look similar to today’s Bitcoin crash.
Free $75 sponsored job credit at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through June 30, 2021.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/20/2021 • 45 minutes, 26 seconds
Investors Begin to Worry the Fed Won’t Fight Inflation – Ep 692
* Dollar falls towards new lows.
* Inflation fears become more widespread.
* Wall Street beginning to realize there’s no political solution to inflation. Bitcoin following risk stocks lower, as inflation hedges like gold and silver rise.
* Fearing 2% inflation, Bitcoin investors lose 34% on their hedge.
* Bitcoin staring at enormous head and shoulders top.
* Microstrategy stock down 63% from its high.
* Michael Saylor lies and hides.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/19/2021 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 29 seconds
All Signs Point to Stagflation – Ep 691
* Oil prices pump.
* Bitcoin prices dump.
* Gold prices shine.
* US leads world in over-valued momentum stocks.
* Tucker Carlson talks inflation.
* Windows look like nails to the Fed’s hammer.
* Soaring inflation outweighs record lows mortgage rates.
* Manufacturing decreases in April.
* Economic statistics point to stagflation.
Thanks to Amazon Pharmacy. Amazon Prime Members can save on prescription medication when not using insurance and get FREE 2-Day delivery! Learn more at https://amazon.com/GOLD
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/15/2021 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 2 seconds
Soaring CPI Shocks Clueless Investors and Economists – Ep 690
* CPI numbers shock expectations.
* Biggest monthly gain in CPI since 1981.
* Gasoline supply chain disrupted by ransomware hack.
* Price gouging alleviates shortages.
* Unemployed workers shouldn’t be picky.
* Disincentivizing people from jobs is not good for the economy.
* Dogecoiners buy the rumor and sell the fact on Elon Musk SNL appearance.
* Accolades have gone to Cathie Woods’ head.
* ARKK will likely make a new 52 week low this year.
* CNBC continues to ignore emerging markets, value stocks, and gold.
* ]The people saying sub-prime was contained in 2008 are the same people saying inflation is transitory now.
Thanks Raycon!. Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/12/2021 • 54 minutes, 34 seconds
Jobs Not Required to Spend Printed Money – Ep 689
* Huge misses in jobs numbers.
* Biden’s Blue-Collar Blueprint to build back better will be another big bureaucratic blunder.
* Jobs report is more evidence the Fed’s policies aren’t working.
* Weaker labor market means stronger inflation.
* Dollar decline will accelerate.
* Strong week for gold and silver with more strength ahead.
* Investors continue their move from growth to value stocks.
* Bitcoin maximalists in glass houses throwing stones at Dogecoin.
* Elon Musk may create a market top in Dogecoin after his SNL appearance.
* Jeff Gundlach is a fan of The Peter Schiff Show.
Listen to the latest season of Business Wars (Vaccine Wars) on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, or listen early and ad-free by joining Wondery Plus in the Wondery app.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/8/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 1 second
The Fed Can’t Be Honest About Inflation – Ep 688
* Inflation concerns increase along with commodity prices.
* Trade deficit will fuel inflationary spiral.
* Government reclassifying our rights as privileges so they can take them away.
* Supreme Court sets precedent for the federal government to start seizing property.
* Americans need property rights, not property privileges.
Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package. https://Expressvpn.com/gold
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/5/2021 • 50 minutes, 25 seconds
Fed Helps Biden Cheat to Avoid Economic “F” – Ep 687
* Markets, gold, bonds, oil end April up; US dollar down.
* Investors may “sell in May and going away.”
* More than one third of US household income is now coming from the government.
Thanks Clear. For a limited time, get your first two months of Clear for free by going to https://Clearme.com/GOLD2 and use the promo code GOLD2
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/1/2021 • 36 minutes, 56 seconds
Biden and Powell Do America – Ep 686
* New record high in S&P and Nasdaq.
* New record high in monthly trade deficit.
* New record high in shipping containers falling off ships into the ocean.
* Powell not worried about increases in the cost of living.
* The middle class created labor unions and then, like Frankenstein’s monster, the unions turned on their creator.
* Biden’s plan to make healthcare more affordable will backfire and make it more expensive.
* American Families Bill will set a new record high in fraud.
* Government will do to childcare what it’s done to college tuitions.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/30/2021 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 40 seconds
Less of What’s Taxed, More of What’s Subsidized – Ep 685
* Jeff Gundlach sounding a lot like Peter Schiff again.
* Biden’s American Families Plan extends entitlements to child care and sick leave.
* Covid policies created multiple layers of unemployment fraud
* Government wants to pick winners and losers in the economy.
* IRS going after business owners with new increased auditing budget.
* Presumption of innocence is under attack.
Free $75 sponsored job credit at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through June 30, 2021.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/28/2021 • 57 minutes, 3 seconds
Government Spending Is Taxation – Ep 684
* Stock market indexes break their 4-week winning streak.
* Biden tax plan creates bearish environment for stock market.
* Technical data for the dollar continues looking weaker.
* Conspiracy theories surrounding the Perth Mint are wrong.
* Republicans opposing Biden’s tax plan are hypocrites.
Thanks to Amazon Pharmacy. Amazon Prime Members can save on prescription medication when not using insurance and get FREE 2-Day delivery! Learn more at https://amazon.com/GOLD
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/24/2021 • 55 minutes, 32 seconds
The Beginning or the End of the Bitcoin Bear Market? – Ep 683
* Coinbase already in a bear market within a week of its IPO.
* GBTC selling at a record discount.
* Bitcoin dump is underway.
* Biden readies massive federal tax increase on capital gains.
* Rich gringos are benefiting Puerto Rico.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/23/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 8 seconds
The Woke Mob Silences Dissenters – Ep 682
* Woke mob is preventing justice and cramping freedom of speech.
* We should be mourning the death of justice, not the conviction of Derek Chauvin.
* Jurors can now go home as heroes instead of fearing for their lives.
* George Floyd didn’t sacrifice himself for justice. It was justice that was sacrificed.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/21/2021 • 44 minutes, 13 seconds
Trial by Mob: Injustice in America – Ep 681
* George Floyd's autopsy results show he died of hypertension, heart disease, and drug overdose that complicated police subdual, restraint, and compression.
* Video of Derek Chauvin shows he was following procedure and not trying to murder George Floyd.
* Maxine Waters urges BLM to be more confrontational with their protests.
* Benjamin Crump lies about Daunte Wright and Kim Potter on ABC's This Week.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/20/2021 • 53 minutes, 35 seconds
Is Dogecoin the New Bitcoin? – Ep 680
* Record setting day and week for the markets.
* Dollar sells off as gold rises.
* China eases restrictions on gold imports.
* There is no silver scam at the Perth Mint.
* CNBC treating the Coinbase IPO like they did the AOL Time Warner merger.
* Bitcoin lost 97% of its value measured in Dogecoin.
* Dogecoin was created as a joke and may become the punchline for hodling Bitcoin.
Check out Ladder today to see if you’re instantly approved, go to https://ladderlife.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/17/2021 • 50 minutes, 44 seconds
Madoff Dead, but Government Ponzi Schemes Live On – Ep 679
* This inflation isn’t transitory. Higher prices are here to stay.
* Coinbase IPO triggers a buy the rumor sell the fact crypto avalanche.
* Jerome Powell has zero understanding of gold.
* Bernie Madoff died in prison, but his spirit lives on in the US Government.
* Daunte Wright, like George Floyd, contributed to his own death.
* Minnesota officer charged with manslaughter to appease the mob.
Free $75 sponsored job credit at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through June 30, 2021.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/14/2021 • 52 minutes, 59 seconds
Powell Guarantees Fed’s Indefinite Economic Support – Ep 678
* Our leaders, including Chairman Powell, are cowards.
* You can’t buy what hasn’t been produced, no matter how much money is printed.
* Bitcoin price moves up ahead of Coinbase offering.
* Michael Saylor’s latest propaganda stunt proves Bitcoin is neither currency nor money.
Thanks Raycon!. Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/13/2021 • 47 minutes, 37 seconds
Transitioning Into Stagflation – Ep 677
* Dow closes the week at a new all time high.
* Small gains in gold and silver.
* Investors haven’t yet realized the Fed can’t stop inflation.
* Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge.
* Record number of Americans don’t want jobs.
* 60 Minutes is fake news.
* US Customs targets me at the airport.
Thanks Tommy John Get 20% off your 1st order https://TommyJohn.com/gold. See site for details.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/10/2021 • 1 hour, 31 seconds
Fed Can’t Put Inflation Genie Back in the Bottle – Ep 676
* Jamie Dimon touts optimistic fairy tales.
* Moratoriums on evictions and student loan payments boosting consumer spending.
* The 70’s were an economic disaster because of the policies of the 60’s.
* Fed betting the house on inflation being transitory.
* China’s digital Yuan threatens both Bitcoin and the US Dollar.
Free $75 sponsored job credit at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through June 30, 2021.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/8/2021 • 50 minutes, 48 seconds
Biden Wants to Lead the World to Less Freedom – Ep 675
* Stock markets hit record highs.
* Weakness in Russell shows recovery is happening outside the US.
* Biden and Yellen push for collusion through global tax cartel.
* Nobody has voting rights.
* Democrats want to keep dumbing down the voter base.
Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package. https://Expressvpn.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/6/2021 • 53 minutes, 43 seconds
Employees Returning to Work Is Not Job Creation – Ep 674
* Restored jobs will be lost again permanently.
* Gold bulls throwing in the towel.
* Archegos is a lesson for Bitcoin HODLers.
* Derek Chauvin’s trial begins with odds against him.
* Media ignores murderers if they’re the wrong race or gender.
* Hate Crime laws will lead to Thought Crime laws.
Free $75 sponsored job credit at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through June 30, 2021.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/2/2021 • 53 minutes, 23 seconds
Biden’s Plan Will Weaken Economy & Lessen Opportunity – Ep 673
* Treasury bonds creep higher to new post-Covid highs.
* Gold sellers are not Bitcoin buyers.
* Market has been buying Fed’s bluffs.
* Ferocious moves in gold ahead.
* Covid is incomparable to the tragedies of war.
* Biden takes a stake to the heart of capitalism.
* The middle class was created by capitalism and destroyed by government.
Thanks FEALS. Become a member at https://Feals.com/gold and you'll get 50% off your first order with free shipping.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/1/2021 • 52 minutes, 46 seconds
Inflation: Fed Won’t Pick a Fight It Can’t Win – Ep 672
* Markets rally as the rotation to value and dividend stocks continues.
* Treasury yields slip.
* Big moves in oil and dollar.
* Gold and silver take a hit.
* Unemployment and trade deficit numbers dangerously high.
* Powell’s tool will turn the economy from recession into a depression.
* FOMC looking to advance a political agenda.
* Infrastructure spending is not stimulus.
* Despite more competition, Disney+ subscription price increases 14%.
* Read the fine print before bartering your Bitcoin for a Tesla.
Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/27/2021 • 57 minutes, 8 seconds
When Krugman Talks, Don’t Listen – 671
* Stock market down on anniversary of 2020 crash.
* Biden readies $4 Trillion more in stimulus before the ink dries on the last round of checks.
* Krugman back with more Keynesian nonsense.
* Virtual Fifth Avenue is not valuable when you can have infinite New York Cities.
* Affirmative Action is condescending to African Americans.
* Massive racial hate crime gets swept under the rug by the media.
Visit https://Audible.com/PETER or text PETER to 500-500 to start your free 30-day trial.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/24/2021 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 50 seconds
Markets Are Not Buying What the Fed Is Selling – 670
* St. Patrick’s Day green turns into a sea of red.
* CPI is another government lie.
* Markets worried the Fed will fight inflation.
* Gold mining stocks strengthen.
* Tensions rise as China puts Biden administration in a PR box.
* The same problems are now playing out on a bigger stage.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/20/2021 • 47 minutes, 42 seconds
Fed Turns Screens Green for St Patrick’s Day – Ep 669
* Markets rally as Fed continues its game of chicken.
* Jerome Powell gambling that this time things will be different.
* Gold and silver up. Dollar down.
* Bank of America agrees, Bitcoin is just for gambling.
* Morgan Stanley allows restricted crypto speculating to high net worth investors.
Thanks to Amazon Pharmacy.
Amazon Prime Members can save on prescription medication when not using insurance and get FREE 2-Day delivery!
Learn more at https://amazon.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/18/2021 • 49 minutes, 20 seconds
Anchors Aweigh. Adrift in a Sea of Inflation – Ep 668
* Dow breaks its streak of seven day record highs.
* Import and export prices rise.
* Home building prices rise.
* Expansive tax hikes coming on income.
* NFT mania moves to virtual sneakers.
* I lost $4,000 HODLing my tweet.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31, 2021.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/17/2021 • 58 minutes, 10 seconds
Fed Playing Chicken with Bond Market – Ep 667
* Investors starting to adopt my thesis.
* Money doesn’t create purchasing power.
* Biden’s stimulus is just a down payment.
* Massive loopholes will be exploited.
* Artists and athletes like Beeple and Gronk are ripping off their fans.
Thanks Raycon! Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/13/2021 • 49 minutes, 46 seconds
Peak Insanity – Ep 666
* NASDAQ enters into a correction.
* Cathy Wood buys overpriced momentum stocks.
* The madness of crowds has reached an all-time high.
* NFTs are for rookies.
* Tweets for sale!
Check out Ladder today to see if you’re instantly approved, go to https://ladderlife.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/10/2021 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 8 seconds
Fed Between a Rock and a Hard Place – Ep 665
* Oil prices surge to two year highs.
* Restaurants being allowed to reopen is not employment strength.
* Jerome Powell spooks the markets with his false sense of confidence.
* Bitcoin trading like a NASDAQ stock with no earnings.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter
Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31, 2021.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/6/2021 • 58 minutes, 52 seconds
Fed Gets RBA to Do Its Dirty Work – Ep 664
* Big gains on Monday give back on Tuesday.
* Australia doubles down on their QE program.
* US stock market rally made in Australia.
* Kevin Leary has Bitcoin backwards.
* Mark Cuban unknowingly refutes his own arguments.
* Democrats play politics with Wealth Tax.
* Anybody can consume, saving capital is the tough part
Get 3 extra months free: https://ExpressVPN.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/3/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 57 seconds
Inflation Is No Threat to Gold – Ep 663
* Stock markets end February hemorrhaging.
* March may start with a black Monday blood bath.
* Meme stocks mania add to the market craziness.
* Cancel culture insanity infects The Bachelor.
* Don't assume Mr. Potatohead's gender.
* How will the future generations judge us?
Get 15% off your 1st order https://Tommyjohn.com/gold. See site for details.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/27/2021 • 54 minutes, 48 seconds
The Fed Can’t Fool All the Investors All the Time – Ep 662
* Jerome Powell becomes more dovish each time he speaks.
* US Dollar hits new low against Australian and Canadian Dollar.
* Technical charts show dollar heading towards a cliff.
* Elon Musk responds:
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/25/2021 • 1 hour, 26 seconds
Elon Musk Replies to Peter Schiff’s Bitcoin Tweet – Ep 661
* Renewed momentum out of Covid stay-at-home stocks and into value stocks.
* Crude oil, industrial metals, and other commodities move higher.
* Tesla slips back into a bear market.
* Can Elon Musk convince Peter Schiff to buy Bitcoin?
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://www.Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31, 2021.
Schedule your FREE Product Tour at https://www.NetSuite.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/23/2021 • 51 minutes, 57 seconds
Security Regs and IRS Audits Targeting the Rich Will Hit the Middle Class – Ep 660
* Copper leads rise in commodities.
* By end of year, a penny may be worth a nickel.
* Elon Musk admits, BTC is BS.
* Bitcoin bubble may get popped by a gold pin.
* Game Stop bubble popped.
* Robinhood going to be writing a lot of checks to small investors.
* If you can’t afford a professional broker, blame the government.
* IRS setting their sights on the middle class and small business owners.
Listen to the latest season of Business Movers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or listen ad-free by joining
Wondery Plus in the Wondery app.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/20/2021 • 53 minutes, 23 seconds
Stimulus Checks Funded a January Christmas – Ep 659
* We don’t have a booming economy, we have a shopping spree.
* Food and energy prices on the rise.
* There is no gender pay gap, but new laws will create one.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://www.indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid
through March 31, 2021.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/18/2021 • 40 minutes, 6 seconds
Surging Bond Yields and Oil Still Pressuring Gold – Ep 658
* Spike in interest rates hit gold and silver hard.
* First time home buyer credit tucked into stimulus bill will breed fraud and moral hazard.
* Tesla stock hurt by Bitcoin investment, potentially scaring off other CEOs from following Elon Musk into crypto.
Schedule your FREE Product Tour at https://www.netsuite.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/17/2021 • 47 minutes, 21 seconds
Surging Trade Deficits Signify Weakness, Not Strength – Ep 657
* Record highs in the S&P and lumber prices.
* Commodity prices and bond yields soar.
* More Americans losing their jobs.
* U.S. has been obliterated in the trade war.
* Lucasfilm feigns outrage from the leftist mob, proving Gina Carano’s point.
Go to https://www.Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/13/2021 • 53 minutes, 43 seconds
Fed Gives Treasury a Blank Check – Ep 656
* Pot stocks were blazing today after getting smoked last year.
* Big action in platinum may be the start of bigger action in precious metals.
* Oil prices make new post-covid highs.
* Signs point to a possible peak in MicroStrategy’s stock.
* Jerome Powell encourages the government to get into a deeper hole.
* Puerto Rico would be one of the biggest losers of the minimum wage.
* Virtue signaling is harming the poor and minority communities.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. To lock in your best rate today and get your family covered with Ladder, go to https://ladderlife.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/11/2021 • 56 minutes, 45 seconds
Did Tesla Jump the Shark Buying Bitcoin? – Ep 655
* Elon Musk dumps Tesla shareholder money into Bitcoin.
* Tesla is overvalued, but Bitcoin has no value.
* Will one bubble be the pin for another bubble?
* The establishment is behind Bitcoin!
*
Dogecoin is better than Bitcoin.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter.
Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31, 2021.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/9/2021 • 47 minutes, 35 seconds
All Roads Lead to Stagflation – Ep 654
*
Jobs data weak and revisions are worse.
*
Bond yields weighing heavy on gold prices.
*
Dollar gets clobbered by disappointing economic data.
*
Oil prices rising and going higher.
*
Increasing trade deficit will soon explode.
*
Kamala Harris and the Senate pass $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.
*
This is the first and probably smallest of many stimulus payments from Joe Biden.
*
Warren, Sanders, AOC pushing Biden for student loan forgiveness.
*
Bitcoin hodlers seem to be the only ones talking about inflation.
Thanks Raycon!. Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/6/2021 • 48 minutes, 40 seconds
When Neel Kashkari Speaks, Smart People Buy Gold – Ep 653
*
Quieter day in the markets with notable moves in oil.
*
Dollar consolidating before its next move lower.
*
Kashkari believes inflation is purely psychological.
*
Outsourcing will boom under Democrats.
*
New York is paying people to get COVID at “Covid Parties.”
*
Visa uses Bitcoin for cheap publicity, not for DeFi.
Get 3 extra months free: https://ExpressVPN.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/4/2021 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 13 seconds
Schiff Gold Becomes Schiff Silver – Ep 652
*
Big moves in silver outshine modest gains in gold.
*
Robinhood users are the product, not the customers.
*
Government regulators emboldened to act.
*
Watch out for the numismatic bait and switch from precious metals dealers.
*
Elon Musk and Ray Dalio don’t sound like Bitcoin buyers.
*
Elon Musk is wise not to throw pins while living in a bubble.
Schedule your FREE Product Tour at NetSuite.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/2/2021 • 47 minutes, 8 seconds
Reddit Raiders Ride Silver – Ep 651
*
All four major market indexes end the week down.
*
So goes January, so goes the year … so buckle up!
*
Hedge funds continue to take it in the shorts.
*
First Majestic Silver gets targeted.
*
Robinhood limits stock trading and puts halt on instant crypto buying.
*
The establishment does NOT want you to buy physical silver.
*
The establishment LOVES Bitcoin.
*
Elon Musk plays with his Twitter followers like puppets.
Thanks Keeps. To receive your first month of treatment for free, go to https://keeps.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/30/2021 • 42 minutes, 20 seconds
The Mother of All Short Squeezes is Yet to Come – Ep 650
*
Powell delivers most dovish press conference ever.
*
Anthony Scaramucci’s Skybridge… fund wins trophy for ridiculous bitcoin logic
*
GameStop proves Bitcoin can’t work.
*
Technicals starting to deteriorate on Bitcoin.
*
Bitcoin speculators have moved onto greener pastures..
*
Big shorts in gold and silver could be squeezed next.
Visit https://Audible.com/PETER or text PETER to 500-500 to start your free 30-day trial.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/28/2021 • 55 minutes, 57 seconds
Is the Bitcoin Game about to Stop? – Ep 649
*
Big gains in the most heavily shorted stocks like Game Stop.
*
Robinhood traders buying Game Stop think they’re smarter than the hedge funds shorting it.
*
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
*
In the short-run, stocks are a voting machine. In the long-run, stocks are a weighing machine.
*
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
*
When it comes to bubbles, the markets first bankrupt everyone who bet against them, and then bankrupts everyone who bet on them.
*
Premium for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is collapsing along with the demand.
*
If you’re at the poker table and you don’t know who the patsy is, it’s you.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through March 31, 2021.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/26/2021 • 49 minutes, 28 seconds
We Elected Biden But We Got Sanders – Ep 648
*
Markets finish positive on a quiet week.
*
IBM’s chickens coming home to roost.
*
Gold positive on the week despite heavy pressure.
*
Biden’s executive orders bullish for gold fundamentals.
*
Chicago teachers don’t care about students.
*
Regulatory costs of Bitcoin will exceed traditional banking.
*
There is no shortage of Satoshis.
Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/23/2021 • 53 minutes, 38 seconds
Biden Takes the Helm of Sinking Ship – Ep 647
*
Markets couldn’t care less who’s the president.
*
Despite the change in the White House, there’s no change at the Federal Reserve.
*
Joe Biden is not everybody’s president.
*
Democrats made a deal with the devil.
*
The country will now suffer like never before.
*
Nothing Joe Biden wants to do is Constitutional.
*
This can is too big to kick down the road.
Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. To lock in your best rate today and get your family covered with Ladder, go to https://www.ladderlife.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/21/2021 • 40 minutes, 43 seconds
Trump Leaves America Further From Greatness Than Ever – Ep 646
*
I told you so. Donald is a one term President.
*
Trade deficit worse now than before we were “winning” trade deals.
*
Trump added almost as much to the deficit in 4 years as Obama did in 8.
*
Only thing Trump didn’t like about Obamacare was the name.
*
The cornerstone of Trump’s legacy and the cornerstone of Trump’s criticisms of Obama are the same.
*
Trump failed to make America great, but pretended that he succeeded.
*
To his credit, Trump didn’t lead us into any new wars and he nominated three good justices to the Supreme Court.
Schedule your FREE Product Tour at https://www.netsuite.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/20/2021 • 51 minutes, 54 seconds
Biden to Throw Drowning Economy an Anchor – Ep 645
*
Power and ignorance is a dangerous combination.
*
Biden’s stimulus plan will make the European Union look responsible by comparison.
*
Affirm’s IPO epitomizes what’s wrong with markets and the economy.
*
Dollar denominated financial assets on expedited track to worthlessness.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://www.Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/16/2021 • 42 minutes, 24 seconds
Commodity Boom Evidences Inflation, Not Growth – Ep 644
*
Agricultural commodities ore on fire.
*
Nobody needs bitcoin.
*
A market driven by inflation is different than a market driven by earnings.
*
Biden administration will exploit the attempted “insurrection”
*
Tech currying favor from Biden administration through conservative censorship.
Get an extra 3 months. Expressvpn.com/gold.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/13/2021 • 46 minutes, 11 seconds
Tesla vs. Bitcoin: The Battle of the Bubbles – Ep 643
*
Gold and silver shellacked.
*
Jobs report worse than anyone expected.
*
Elon Musk becomes richest man in the world.
*
Chamath Palihapitiya’s poorly chosen quote may be an omen for things to come.
*
Bitcoin bubble brings bizarre bedfellows.
*
Biden vows to put low-skilled workers out of work.
Thanks Raycon! Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/9/2021 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 16 seconds
The Real Threat in D.C. Comes from Congress, Not Protests – Ep 642
*
Democrats bribe Georgia voters with cash.
*
Massive divergence between International stocks and domestic stocks.
*
Bitcoin is propping up the system that it’s supposed to take down.
*
Protesting a stolen election is a right.
Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/7/2021 • 51 minutes, 22 seconds
Did Global Financial Markets Just Decouple? – Ep 641
*
Rare dichotomies playing out in the markets - something big is happening.
*
Dollar continues to fall against the Yuan.
*
Institutional money is flocking to real commodities, not Bitcoin.
*
Connecticut passes idiotic new law giving workers 3 month yearly vacations.
Schedule your FREE Product Tour at NetSuite.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/5/2021 • 53 minutes, 42 seconds
2021: The Year of The Chickens Coming Home to Roost – Ep 640
*
Fed turned stock market into a casino.
*
Investors buying everything in sight with cheap money.
*
Trump ends term with biggest trade deficit and budget deficits in history.
*
Trump vetoes less bills than any other president in 100 years.
*
Race to the bottom will start when Fed starts bailing out state.
*
Tesla is better than Bitcoin.
*
Bitcoin is like the Emperor’s New Clothes.
Thanks Keeps. To receive your first month of treatment for free, go to https://keeps.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/31/2020 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 17 seconds
Bitcoin May Feel the Ripple – Ep 639
*
Trump grandstands over stimulus bill.
*
Ripple gets ripped.
*
Is Bitcoin also a security?
*
Biden will be bad for Bitcoin.
*
Greyscale gets clobbered.
Go to https://Literati.com/Peter for 25% off your first 2 orders.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/24/2020 • 50 minutes, 10 seconds
Government to Sedate the Economy with More Stimulus – Ep 638
*
New Covid-19 relief stimulus bill passes Congress.
*
200 years worth of debt added in one year of 2020.
*
Trump outdoes Obama’s deficit in only one term.
*
Reparations via voting is nonsense.
*
Banco Popular has bad business practices.
*
I recommend First Bank of Puerto Rico.
Schedule your FREE Product Tour at https://NetSuite.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/23/2020 • 50 minutes, 2 seconds
The Dollar’s Loss Is Not America’s Win – Ep 637
*
Dollar melts down toward new lows.
*
Tesla added to S&P, making the index even more overvalued.
*
Exporting is a means to pay for importing.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 12/31/20.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/19/2020 • 55 minutes, 10 seconds
Fed’s Inflation Ignorance Will Not Be Bliss – Ep 636
*
Fed leaves interest rates unchanged.
*
More stimulus checks and PPP on the way.
*
State governments owe business owners compensation.
*
Big move in silver and bigger moves building.
*
Bitcoin outshines the precious metals.
ExpressVPN.com/gold Arm yourself with an extra 3 months of ExpressVPN for free.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/17/2020 • 45 minutes, 27 seconds
Fed Fuels IPO Folly – Ep 635
*
Doordash and Airbnb go public with successful IPO, despite never making a profit.
Thanks Hawthorne. Get special offers for the holidays, going on right now, by visiting Hawthorne dot CO.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/11/2020 • 46 minutes, 1 second
Rigged Bond Market Sends False Signals – Ep 634
*
Stock indexes and gold mining stocks hit 52-week highs.
*
Fed can’t stop the dollar from falling or gold from rising.
*
Bitcoin isn’t gold 2.0, it’s fools gold 2.0.
Thanks RAYCON! For a limited time, get 15% off your order at https://buyraycon.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/9/2020 • 46 minutes, 17 seconds
The Fed Fights Inflation with Inflation – Ep 633
*
2021 may be the weakest year yet for the dollar.
*
Investors whistle past the mother of all graveyards as inflation mounts.
*
Grayscale printing money and buying CNBC ads.
*
Watch for Bitcoin’s double-top before you let the champagne pop.
*
HODLers on Sesame Street try to silence my video.
*
Walter E. Williams, a black life that mattered greatly to me.
Thanks Keeps. To receive your first month of treatment for free, go to https://keeps.com/GOLD
Thanks to Wondery for supporting The Peter Schiff Podcast. Listen to the latest season of Business Wars (TikTok vs Instagram) on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or listen ad-free by joining Wondery Plus in the Wondery app.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/5/2020 • 49 minutes, 9 seconds
Government Help Has Made a Bad Situation Much Worse – Ep 632
*
Best November for the Dow since the roaring 20s.
*
While stocks saw a boom, gold saw a bust.
*
Negative backdrop may have firmed gold’s bottom.
*
Bitcoin reaches new highs.
*
Joe Biden is from the government and here to help.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through
12/31/20.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/2/2020 • 54 minutes, 2 seconds
Bitcoin Roasted for Thanksgiving – Ep 631
*
Grayscale Trust leads Bitcoin into a Thanksgiving Day Massacre.
*
Sharp declines in gold on Black Friday.
*
Inflation will not save debtors who want to retire.
Thanks Literati. Go to https://Literati.com/Peter for 25% off your first 2 orders.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/27/2020 • 35 minutes, 43 seconds
Dow 30k. Fed Gets the Credit and the Blame – Ep 630
*
Markets hit all time record high of 30k.
*
Record TSLA stock price rockets Elon Musk to second richest in the world.
*
Trump takes credit for record markets he said would tank on Biden win.
*
Janet Yellen for Secretary of Debt.
*
The opposite of the Roaring Twenties are here.
*
Bitcoin flirts with 20k.
*
FDA blocks harmless drugs.
Thanks Keeps. To receive your first month of treatment for free, go to https://keeps.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/25/2020 • 56 minutes, 30 seconds
Trump’s Prescription for Higher Drug Prices – Ep 629
*
Hedge funds are no longer hedges; they’re risks.
*
Investors hope for more monetary stimulus as fiscal stimulus dries up.
*
More fiscally stimulated companies going bankrupt.
*
Bitcoin will replace the tulip bulb in future economic textbooks.
*
Trump’s executive order is unconstitutional and will drive prescription prices higher.
Thanks RAYCON! For a limited time, get up to 20% off your order at https://buyraycon.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/21/2020 • 57 minutes, 18 seconds
If COVID Didn’t Hurt Stocks, Why Should a Vaccine Help? – Ep 628
* Another vaccine, another rally.
* Easy money is here to stay no matter what happens with COVID.
* Price surges coming.
* Was Buffett embarrassed by his big Barrick buy?
* Ray Dalio recommending the entire Euro Pacific investment strategy.
* Airbnb going public with no reason for optimism.
* Hidden agenda of Bitcoin whales is to trap the minnows.
* Voting for the CARES Act shows how little you care about the country.
Free $75 credit to boost your post at Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through
12/31/20.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/18/2020 • 56 minutes, 54 seconds
Biden Advisor Proposes National Paid Vacation – Ep 627
* Biden advisor proposes another lockdown; says the Fed will pay everyones’ wages. Is it a Trojan horse for UBI?
* No recovery in sight for the economy, only a relapse.
* Democrats fight for Senate control through Georgia.
* Americans in their 70s taking on record debt.
* 60 Minutes Australia compounds their damages.
* PayPal’s Bitcoin adoption is a gimmick.
Thanks Hawthorne! To take your quiz and get 10% off your first purchase, go to hawthorne.co and use promo code GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/13/2020 • 42 minutes, 28 seconds
There’s No Vaccine for What Really Ails the U.S. Economy – Ep 626
* Big moves in all the markets on news of COVID vaccine from Pfizer.
* COVID vaccine will not be ready soon.
* Investors sell stay-at-home stocks and buy the leave-the-house stocks.
* Gold gets thrown out with the safe-havens.
* Bitcoin has the least volatility.
* Statehood for Puerto Rico would be a disaster.
Get 3 months free. Expressvpn.com/Gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/10/2020 • 52 minutes, 10 seconds
Dollar Dumps as Stock Market Pumps – Ep 625
* Investors having deer in headlights moment.
* The light at the end of the tunnel is a Mac truck.
* Rally in gold stocks are a small taste of what’s ahead.
* Biden has the same tricks to play as Trump.
* Biden, like Trump, criticizes the stock market as a candidate and will embrace it as president.
* Bitcoin gains, but its popularity doesn’t.
Free $75 credit at https://Indeed.com/Peter
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/7/2020 • 38 minutes, 57 seconds
Investors are as Clueless as Pollsters – Ep 624
The election polls were horribly wrong.
Blue wave barely makes a splash.
Wall Street content with the election results.
Biden will reregulate what Trump deregulated.
Biden regulations will take toll on workers.
China and pharmaceutical companies optimistic on Biden.
Pot stocks get smoked.
Ranked voting would blow open the Democrat and Republican duopoly.
Free $75 credit at https://Indeed.com/Peter
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/5/2020 • 45 minutes, 56 seconds
The Peter Schiff Show Election Night Coverage
Peter Schiff gives his thoughts on the election and takes questions from the listeners.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/4/2020 • 4 hours, 6 minutes, 31 seconds
Worst Pre-Election Stock Market Week in History – Ep 623
US stock market has worst week since March.
Wall Street bought on the rumor of a Biden win; now selling before it becomes a fact.
Selling will continue even after he wins.
It’s all about the Fed and nobody cares.
Losses will be most pronounced in the bond market.
Fed holding back the cure for the economy.
Under Capitalism, people get rich by helping other people.
Under Socialism, people get rich by controlling other people.
Great buying opportunities in gold mining sector.
Dollar heading into the biggest bear market it’s ever suffered.
Schedule your FREE Product Tour at NetSuite.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/31/2020 • 46 minutes, 37 seconds
All Bubbles Eventually Find a Pin – Ep 622
Stock markets tumble on renewed fears.
Blue wave may not crest as once was expected.
More stimulus comes with bigger government.
Trump is the Republican Jimmy Carter.
Trump’s legacy will be his successful Supreme Court nominees.
The most important thing this election is to prevent Democrats from taking control of the Senate.
Free $75 credit at https://Indeed.com/Peter
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/27/2020 • 48 minutes, 18 seconds
Was the Hatchet Job on Me a Snow Job on Australia? – Ep 621
Addressing the elephant in the room.
Australian media accuses me of masterminding the biggest money laundering and tax evasion scheme in the history of the world.
Realtors, accountants, lawyers may soon be required to spy on their clients.
Real Bitcoiners respect me. Fake Bitcoiners hate me.
PayPal announces Bitcoin news.
Dollar weakest in weeks.
Thanks RAYCON! While the deal is running, get 15% off your order at https://buyraycon.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/22/2020 • 44 minutes, 41 seconds
America Has Never Been Less Great – Ep 620
Bank analysts want more artificial stimulus.
Retail sales surge while production crashes.
PPP monkey business driving spike in business applications.
Borrowing from poorer countries is a sign of decay, not strength.
The income tax is proof that Americans are not a free people.
Hunter Biden compromises national security and economy.
Twitter censors the story from the public.
The coverup is as outrageous as the story.
Washington full of pickpockets, not public servants.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/17/2020 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 46 seconds
Almost Everything the Federal Government Does is Unconstitutional – Ep 619
US stock market breaks a 4 day winning streak.
Enormous tax hikes being proposed dwarf tax cuts.
Fed creating a launch pad for gold.
Amy Coney Barrett agrees to maintain unconstitutional precedent.
The government interprets the Constitution to grant themselves unlimited power.
Get an extra 3 months.
Express VPN: https://expressvpn.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/14/2020 • 1 hour, 12 minutes, 53 seconds
Trump Out-Democrats the Democrats – Ep 618
Trump extends stimulus olive branch to Pelosi.
Kudlow lies behind his mask.
Republicans cave on spending.
QE goes from tool of last resort to standard operating procedure.
Stimulus begets stimulus.
Dollar breaks down; gold and silver rally.
Gold and silver will move big following the election.
Debates need a referee, not a moderator.
Republicans are being stingy socialists.
Trade deficit with China bigger than before we declared a trade war.
Bitcoin gains on news of Jack Dorsey’s Square allocation.
Free $75 credit at Indeed.com/Peter
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/10/2020 • 49 minutes, 56 seconds
Debt Explodes as Stimulus Hopes Implode – Ep 617
Trump temporarily dashes stimulus hopes.
National debt tops $27 Trillion.
Trade deficit in manufactured goods hits all time record high.
Jerome Powell either doesn’t understand the economy or is a liar.
Lower-skilled government workers retiring with multimillion dollar pensions paid for by private sector.
Donald Trump condemns white supremacy, but Joe Biden won’t condemn Socialism.
Thanks Keeps. To receive your first month of treatment for free, go to keeps.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/7/2020 • 50 minutes, 5 seconds
Trump COVID Positive, Job Prognosis Negative – Ep 616
Last jobs report before election overshadowed by COVID-positive Trump.
Possibility of a President Pence becomes more probable.
Deregulation and lower taxes would stimulate the economy.
Consumption is the caboose; production is the engine that moves the train forward.
California will need a Federal bailout to pay reparations for the slaves they never had.
Princeton placates mob and gets caught in a lie.
BitMEX founders indicted on criminal charges.
Coinbase bans political discussions.
Try 3 months free of ExpressVPN at https://ExpressVPN.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/3/2020 • 51 minutes, 47 seconds
A Debate to Forget – Ep 615
Stock market finishes the worst September since 2011.
Silver down on the month, but outperforms stock market on the quarter.
Stephen Roach speculates 35% collapse in the US dollar in 2021.
Paying taxes is nobody’s patriotic duty.
Home appraisers aren’t racist.
Democrats pissed they can’t put black people deeper into debt.
Biden wins the first debate by simply proving he’s not senile.
Trump defends the indefensible about healthcare.
Biden dodges questions about Supreme Court and Green New Deal.
Schedule your FREE Product Tour at https://www.NetSuite.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/1/2020 • 59 minutes, 34 seconds
The Stock Market Needs the Fed More Than Gold – Ep 614
Dollar rallies in the face of stock market fall.
Bubble stocks more bubblicious.
Monetary stimulus only stimulates inflation.
Daymond John wants the government to print more money.
It’s not an L-Shape or V-Shape recovery, because it’s not a recovery.
Too much can kicking has made the can too big.
Democrats throwing stones from their glass house.
Wells Fargo CEO shamed by race baiting mob for telling the truth.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/24/2020 • 52 minutes, 43 seconds
Political Tension Puts Near-Term “Stimulus” in Doubt – Ep 613
Everything gets slammed.
Chart looking weak for the Dow and Russell, strong for silver.
Bloom coming off the rose of economic recovery.
Political tensions rise with death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
US government is the biggest threat to America, not terrorists or COVID.
Fiscal stimulus requires monetary stimulus.
The constitution has to be applied, not interpreted.
Thanks RAYCON! Get 15% off your order at https://buyraycon.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/22/2020 • 1 hour, 38 seconds
Fed Not Dovish Enough for Markets – Ep 612
Rough ride for the indexes this week.
Fed commits to 0% interest rates until 2023.
Neel Kashkari thinks that’s not enough.
Air is coming out of the retail sales bubble.
Temporarily closed businesses close permanently.
Markets ignoring dangerous warning signs.
Trump stabs Republicans in the back.
American energy companies are dead, but oil prices will rise.
Morgan Stanley wakes up to gold.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/19/2020 • 55 minutes, 26 seconds
Soaking the rich will drown everyone else – Ep 611
Secretary of Treasury is really Secretary of Debt
Fed doesn’t think Americans are in enough pain.
Education and healthcare are too important for the government to be involved in.
Biden pledges to nationalize corporate America.
The road to serfdom is better than the road we’re on now.
Episode Sponsor: ExpressVPN
Get an extra 3 months free on a one year package.: https://ExpressVPN.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/16/2020 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 40 seconds
Fiercest Fires Were Lit by the Fed – Ep 610
Markets end week on a mixed note.
Gold consolidating support above previous highs.
Fed has come out of the closet.
Alan Greenspan sounds more like Peter Schiff as he gets older.
Government did more harm to Americans with the War on Terror than the terrorists did.
Government doing more harm again with the War on COVID than the virus has done.
Government incentives maximum racism.
NFL discriminates.
Go to https://indeed.com/peter for a $75 credit on your job post
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/12/2020 • 1 hour, 38 seconds
The Dollar and Bonds are Bigger Bubbles Than Stocks – Ep 609
NASDAQ has a full blown correction.
TSLA is the poster child of the stock market craziness.
Slack is not an investment.
Air coming out of stock market bubble.
Dave Portnoy is the poster child of day traders.
Bitcoin’s support is weakening.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/9/2020 • 59 minutes, 29 seconds
Did the Biggest Bubble Ever Just Pop? – Ep 608
The biggest bubble may have popped without a pin.
Charts show bad omen for the NASDAQ.
The biggest bubble ever won’t die easily.
Strength in gold stocks improving.
Tesla (TSLA) sells off.
Treasury market killed.
China commits to dumping US treasuries.
Bond market’s bottom ready to drop.
Bitcoin may never trade above $10,000 again.
Trade deficit biggest since July of 2008.
Jobs numbers are not what they seem.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/5/2020 • 52 minutes, 50 seconds
The Biggest Bubble Ever – Ep 607
S&P has its best August since 1986.
APPL and TSLA continue soaring after splits.
TSLA rains on its own parade.
Zoom zooms.
Loot this book.
George Floyd died of a drug overdose.
McDonald’s sued for treating black owners equal to white owners.
Rampant wave of race-based lawsuits on the way.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/2/2020 • 1 hour, 15 minutes, 58 seconds
Inflation will destroy the dollar and the economy – Ep 606
Fed changes the rules for inflation target calculations.
Markets react to Powell's announcement.
Prices go up when people aren’t working.
Majority of middle class will be impoverished Into lower class.
Gold’s resistance has become support.
What Trump Steaks may teach us about the Trump Economy.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/28/2020 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 33 seconds
Weak economy enables strong housing market – Ep 605
Good news for Facebook stock is bad news for Main Street.
Housing market booms - just like it did before the 2008 crash.
Layoffs increasing. Many jobs permanently gone.
The voting age should be raised.
Happy Birthday Spencer! Follow my son on Twitter @SpencerSchiff
David Portnoy bails on Bitcoin and Chainlink.
Paul Tudor Jones should be the next big name to bail on crypto.
Cuban-American an emotional and heartfelt warning at the RNC.
Leaked George Floyd tapes show why it’s so important to wait for all the facts.
Link to leaked footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPSwqp5fdIw
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/26/2020 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 37 seconds
Main Street’s Pain is Wall Street’s Gain – Ep 604
S&P and Nasdaq close the week with record highs.
Apple capitalizes on speculator mania with stock split.
Weak economy benefits Wall Street and sedates Main Street.
Real estate booming, but mass defaults may be on the horizon.
Uber shareholders are being exploited, not the drivers.
Republicans have philosophically lost the debates.
Stimulus works great when it comes to buying votes.
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/22/2020 • 51 minutes, 37 seconds
Buffett Boosts Gold Back Above $2,000 – Ep 603
S&P recoups COVID losses, closing today on an all-time high.
Tesla cruises on stock splits driving into the mother of all short squeezes.
Traders will sue Robinhood for their losses.
Dollar index gets smoked.
Warren Buffett knows the inflation tax is coming and he’s trying to avoid it.
Never mind the answers, the news doesn’t even have any questions.
Bitcoin not making any new highs.
Democrat National Convention was an embarrassment to Americans.
$2000 gold may look cheap soon.
Thanks RAYCON! Get 15% off your order at https://buyraycon.com/GOLD
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/19/2020 • 54 minutes, 32 seconds
Buffett Buys Barrick Gold, Sells Banks – Ep 602
Berkshire Hathaway loves gold, bets against the US.
Bidders aren’t showing up for 30 year treasury bonds.
Food prices soar and this is just the beginning.
Fair-weather capitalists claim we’re all socialists now.
Socialism is Larry Kudlow’s new credo, now that he works for the government.
Warren Buffet is too smart to buy bitcoin.
California wants to tax out of state residents' wealth.
Episode Sponsor: ExpressVPN Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package.: https://ExpressVPN.com/gold
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/15/2020 • 57 minutes, 16 seconds
Massive shakeout in gold and silver – Ep 601
Gold’s spectacular move down is the sign of a bull market.
Paul Krugman admits inflation is driving up gold price.
Curing COVID won’t cure the economy.
Do-gooders in California will put Uber and Lyft out of business.
Donald Trump’s tax cuts will drive up the inflation tax.
Joe Biden insults black women before nominating Kamala Harris.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/12/2020 • 1 hour, 15 seconds
Trump’s executive orders are bad economics and unconstitutional – Ep 600
Gold is up for 9th consecutive week.
Gold stocks scaling a wall of worry.
Clock is ticking on TikTok and WeChat.
Trump acting more like a king than a president.
US government more dangerous to Americans than China’s government is.
Jim Rickards is wrong on inflation.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/9/2020 • 50 minutes, 5 seconds
Cat 2k Hurricane Goldie blows through Comex – Ep 599
Gold breaks a new milestone at $2000.
New thousand dollar milestones will start dropping like dominos.
https://www.instagram.com/stories/peterschiff/2368614209700051718/
GDX makes a new high for the year.
Crashing dollar will leave many broke millionaires.
Fed codifying commitment to reckless money printing and endless inflation.
16 year olds lip-syncing is not a national security threat.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/4/2020 • 40 minutes, 59 seconds
U.S. Treasuries are Junk Bonds – Ep 598
July ends with record monthly closes.
Apple becomes world’s most valuable company.
Gold settings records.
Silver has its best month since 1979.
US Dollar has lost better than 99% of its value.
Slow orderly decline could turn into rapid disorderly crash.
10 and 30 year Treasury Bonds close with lowest yields in history.
This is the 1970s on steroids.
Jerome Powell levels up on not thinking about rates.
Meals & Entertainment back on the menu for tax deductions.
Trump’s Kodak moment is not a pretty picture.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/31/2020 • 50 minutes, 56 seconds
What the dollar losing reserve status portends – Ep 597
Gold and silver rise as the dollar falls.
Bitcoin getting pumped - watch out for the dump.
Don’t go all in on gold.
Quantitative easing is here to stay.
American’s will be much poorer when the dollar loses its reserve status.
Republicans introducing $1 Trillion stimulus bill - Democrats say it’s too small.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/28/2020 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 20 seconds
Schiff and Pomp Live on Bitcoin and Gold
Peter Schiff and Anthony Pompliano discuss the big rise in gold, silver, bitcoin, and crypto. Recorded live July 26th 2020.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/28/2020 • 1 hour, 39 minutes, 14 seconds
The ADA has disabled the disabled for 30 years – Ep 596
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
The ADA further disables the disabled.
American Samoa was crippled by the Fare Wage Act.
Discrimination laws create more discrimination.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/26/2020 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 14 seconds
Gold’s record close above $1,900 – Ep 595
US dollar begins it’s decline.
Financial news ignoring the biggest financial story out there.
Intel and Tesla move into bear markets.
Gold up 50% over Trump’s 3.5 years in office.
A brief history of legal tender in the US.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/25/2020 • 37 minutes, 30 seconds
Investors remain oblivious to gold’s warning – Ep 594
Gold prices tease $1900.
Big gains in silver, but that bull market has barely started.
CNBC oblivious to what this means for economy.
Trend broken of declining unemployment.
A dollar crisis is much worse than a financial crisis.
Wall Street learned nothing from 2008.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/23/2020 • 46 minutes, 35 seconds
What silver’s breakout really means – Ep 593
Investor money still piling into at-home stocks.
The world is going back to a gold standard whether the Fed wants one or not.
Massive moves in silver coming.
Traders unwinding short spreads on precious metals.
The canary in the coal mine is dropping dead.
The coming crash will likely be worse than I ever imagined.
New government relief package in the works, but we really need relief from the government.
You get less of what you tax and more of what you subsidize.
Payroll tax is a tax on jobs.
Student loans should be forgiven.
Thanks RAYCON! Get 15% off your order at https://buyraycon.com/GOLD
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/21/2020 • 56 minutes, 20 seconds
My Joe Rogan Experience – Ep 592
Why I interrupted Joe Rogan.
Are capitalists mean?
Dictionaries changed the definition of inflation.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/17/2020 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 27 seconds
Confiscatory taxation is coming – Ep 591
Gold passes $1800 and reaches all time highs in every currency in the world except the US dollar.
China may cut US from trade. China propping up US dollar so US may not be able to buy from anyone soon.
600 financial firms took forgivable PPP loans.
Entrepreneurs created the middle class.
Biden wants equal outcomes, not equal treatment.
Estate Tax is unconstitutional .
Big tax hikes coming.
Follow my new Instagram account: https://instagram.com/peterschiff
Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/11/2020 • 1 hour, 9 minutes, 8 seconds
Gold keeps knocking on 1800’s door – Ep 590
All indexes in the red today.
Closed down college towns is more bad news for banks.
Massive support built for gold’s bull market.
Gold stock fundamentals continue to improve.
Fascism is Socialism.
Episode Sponsor: ExpressVPN Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package.: https://ExpressVPN.com/gold
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/8/2020 • 48 minutes, 2 seconds
Peter Schiff’s Independence Day Remix
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast Ep 264: https://youtu.be/vdnF9t-kHt4
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast Ep 265: https://youtu.be/onMqKwyhKLw
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast Ep 368: https://youtu.be/XGqHMoY7ris
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/6/2020 • 1 hour, 35 seconds
Jobs and Stocks Are Nothing to Brag About – Ep 589
Trump disingenuous about job creation.
Employment numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.
The relapse has started.
Gold is a coiled spring and the market is primed for a huge move up.
Check out Larry Elder’s documentary “Uncle Tom”
https://uncletom.com/
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/3/2020 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 56 seconds
Gold Is The New Gold – Ep 588
Air going back into the bubble is fueling Q2’s phony rally from Q1.
Spectacular gains in the gold stocks eclipse the gains in the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P.
Gold breaking out and stealing the spotlight from Bitcoin.
The dollar privilege, enjoyed by all Americans, is about to go away.
When the dollar loses its reserve status, gold will take its place.
Congress and the Fed open the door for reparations.
The income tax is racist!
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/30/2020 • 59 minutes, 43 seconds
The V-shaped recovery narrative is falling apart – Ep 587
As I predicted, US stock market continued to be under pressure throughout the week.
Financial stocks lead lower by Goldman Sachs.
Companies that can’t make money need to go out of business.
Betting odds overwhelmingly favor Democrats victory in White House and Senate.
House of Representatives pass bill to make Washington D.C. the 51st state.
When Republicans lose the Senate in November, they may never get it back.
Elizabeth Warren has inside track on Secretary of Treasury in Biden cabinet.
Euro Pacific funds made up for 5 years of under performance in 6 months.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/27/2020 • 55 minutes, 4 seconds
The Dollar Milk Shake Theory is all Wet – Ep 586
I’m going on the Joe Rogan Experience July 14th.
I’m speaking at FreedomFest July 15th and 16th.
Gold is the last safe haven left standing.
Trump an even bigger underdog than he was in 2016.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/25/2020 • 49 minutes, 54 seconds
During bad times, a good Fed Chair is not popular – Ep 585
Strong signs we’ve exhausted this bear market rally.
Dollar and Bitcoin bottoms ready to drop from under them.
Real estate sales masking underlying weakness in market.
Trump is the Republican Jimmy Carter.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/20/2020 • 50 minutes, 42 seconds
Fed buying junk bonds to reward speculators – Ep 584
Powell testifies in front of the Senate.
Fed beholden to Wall Street speculators.
The nail is in the coffin. We are the future generation that has to pay for the Fed’s profligacy.
We’re in the lull before the storm. Dollar crash looming.
I touched the third rail and the mob has come to get me fired.
The bar has been lowered, letting real racists off the hook.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/17/2020 • 1 hour, 14 minutes, 1 second
Trump damage control falls flat as stocks tank – Ep 583
Wall Street sees a sea of red.
Fed is stealing your purchasing power and giving it to someone else.
Government should be lightening the burden it places on the economy.
Trump should make big cuts in government spending.
Market still in denial over likelihood of Democrats winning the White House and Senate in November.
Bernie Sanders won whether he’s on the ticket or not.
Democratic Socialism and slavery reparations are coming to America.
The crisis is just beginning for Bitcoin.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/11/2020 • 38 minutes, 40 seconds
Powell admits to Fed’s Monetary Hail Mary – Ep 582
Fed not thinking about thinking about raising interest rates.
We dodged a bullet and stepped on a land mine.
Fed gives green light on more stimulus.
Fed creating an inflation episode for the history books.
Mania in stock market driving short-lived successes on Robinhood app.
Other currencies will collapse with the dollar.
Episode Sponsor: ExpressVPN
Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package.: https://ExpressVPN.com/gold
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/11/2020 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 50 seconds
Paying Employers to Recall Workers Boosted Payrolls – Ep 581
Shocking jobs numbers.
Shipping industry virtually non-existent in America due to Jones Act.
White privilege didn’t save Tony Timba.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/5/2020 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 22 seconds
Printing Money Matters – Ep 580
Government policies destroy the economy and enable racial injustice. Capitalism is the solution.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/3/2020 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 49 seconds
Looting is Socialism without the Middle Man – Ep 579
Rioting now being used to advance Socialist policies.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/2/2020 • 33 minutes, 49 seconds
We Need to Print the Money to See Where it Goes – Ep 578
Big moves in gold and silver.
Jerome Powell admits that things are so bad, it’s worth the risk of killing us with the cure.
Personal income surges by 10.5% as consumer spending declines by 13.6%.
Mark Cuban thinks money printers are the economic fountain of youth.
Goldman Sachs couldn’t care less about Bitcoin.
Trump shifts blame from the Federal Reserve to China.
Check out The Bubble film: https://thebubblefilms.com/
My 1987 correspondence with Alan Greenspan: https://schiffradio.com/my-1987-correspondence-with-alan-greenspan/
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/29/2020 • 1 hour, 32 minutes, 3 seconds
Do the Math: The U.S. is an Insolvent Zombie Nation – Ep 577
Market rallying on hope and hype.
Trump’s odds of winning re-election continues decreasing.
Chinese trade deals unwind.
Stimulus more dangerous than virus.
Everything that can go wrong, likely will go wrong, all at the same time.
American taxpayers stuck with 8 years of tax debt and counting.
We are a zombie country and the world is about to find out we’re insolvent.
Jerome Powell saying the antithesis of what a Fed Chair should be saying.
Investors have a lot left to learn, which leaves gold stocks a lot of room to gain.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/27/2020 • 55 minutes, 27 seconds
Paul Krugman & Stephen Moore Agree – Ep 576
Paul Krugman & Stephen Moore are both advocating the same policies.
Price for plane tickets are skyrocketing.
Q&A
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/23/2020 • 1 hour, 28 minutes, 8 seconds
Fed To Go All-In On No-Limit QE – Ep 575
Markets rose yesterday on promising vaccine news and Jerome Powell interview.
Printing money doesn’t solve economic problems, it compounds them.
Powell admits there is no limit to the amount of inflation the Fed will create.
Gold stocks make new highs for the year.
Another big jump for the price of silver.
Best way for some to buy gold right now is with silver.
Government borrowing half of the money it spends.
Most of the world’s currencies at all-time records lows against gold.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/19/2020 • 50 minutes, 21 seconds
Nothing That Can’t Last Forever Will -Ep 574
Quiet day in the stock market.
More jobs lost than expected.
Fed’s balance sheet moves through $7 Trillion.
Ron Insana says big deficits are not a problem.
Next crisis will happen overnight.
Retails sales declining fast, even as shoppers hoard groceries.
Netflix and Amazon are not COVID investments.
Federal Reserve illegally grabbed the authority to do what It’s doing.
Gold is at the beginning of a big rise.
Buying the stock market is not contrarian.
Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge.
Q&A
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/15/2020 • 1 hour, 21 minutes, 55 seconds
The Debt Bomb Has a Shorter Fuse Than Anyone Thinks – Ep 573
Financials take out new lows today before rallying the market positive.
Tech stocks providing false sense of security for the markets.
Powell throws cold water on negative interest rate expectations.
Trump beats the drums demanding negative interest rates.
Betting odds increase on Democrats taking the Senate.
Congressman now proposing to pay people to go off unemployment.
Restaurants will not recover from this.
Entrepreneurs and business owners are the real heroes, not teachers.
Swedish response was more responsible.
Inflation is a consequence of government, never the private sector.
Gold and gold stock charts looking great as markets start to roll over.
Home builders are in trouble.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/14/2020 • 49 minutes, 6 seconds
Ignore the CPI: Inflation is a Huge Problem – Ep 572
Stock market drops.
CPI lowest since 2008.
Prices will begin rising higher and sooner than most expect.
$2000 monthly UBI proposed for Americans as young as 16 years old
Socialists love coronavirus even more than they love climate change.
Norwegian Airlines sets an example the US should follow.
Bitcoin halves.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/12/2020 • 53 minutes, 4 seconds
Most of the Lost Jobs Aren’t Coming Back – Ep 571
Market rallies on worst jobs report in history.
Decimated gig economy isn’t even factored in.
Majority of service industry jobs are not coming back.
If nobody’s producing, nobody’s consuming.
Market’s now factoring in negative interest rates.
Second wave of layoffs coming.
Businesses now at risk of regular shutdowns.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/9/2020 • 1 hour, 13 minutes, 43 seconds
The Economy is Far Weaker than Investors Believe – Ep 570
Fog lifting on the recovery narrative.
Tech stocks strong on hope.
Government ready to sacrifice other businesses to save Boeing.
Fed feeding the same BS from 2008 about unwinding stimulus.
Financial stocks are the canaries in the coal mine, and they’re dropping dead.
National Debt passes 25 trillion dollars.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/6/2020 • 56 minutes, 16 seconds
Has Reality Ended the Bear Market Rally? – Ep 569
Government encouraging people not to work.
Jim Cramer’s restaurant can’t stand the heat.
Businesses at increased risk for lawsuits.
Nobody is forced to go to work.
Democrats don’t believe all women.
Q&A.
Link to my Standup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne__pTRAenc&t=42s
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/2/2020 • 1 hour, 18 minutes, 23 seconds
It’s Time to Worry About the Debt When the Fed’s Not – Ep 568
Final trading day in April will go into the record books.
Markets ignoring more bad economic data.
Jerome Powell flashes the green light to buy gold.
US considers suing China and defaulting on debt.
Money supply surges by a third of a trillion dollars in a week.
Major housing real estate disaster before us.
Travon Martin Hoax Free Video: https://youtu.be/QAw5ykIPOBM
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/30/2020 • 49 minutes, 48 seconds
The Era of Big Government Never Ended – Ep 567
More bad data getting a pass.
Confidence doesn’t drive an economy, but it does reflect bubbles.
Trade deficit imbalance getting worse.
You cannot consume what has not been produced.
We’re still paying taxes imposed to win WWII.
Jeff Gundlach blocked me.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/29/2020 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 38 seconds
The Debt Time Bomb May Soon Detonate – Ep 566
Inflation video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI3Nya5L9g
The economy was sick long before the coronavirus.
Businesses need big government to bail them out because of big government.
The economy will be a lot smaller at the end of this year.
Economic stimulus is actually a sedative.
Working from home will be a lasting change that will affect real estate.
Q&A
Register for the Money Show virtual event: http://schiff.moneyshow.com/
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/25/2020 • 1 hour, 40 minutes, 21 seconds
Soon Even The Village Idiot Will be Buying Gold Stocks – Ep 565
Gold stocks a coiled spring; prices already doubled in one month.
Paper gold might end up as just paper.
More money for small businesses will be fraudulently claimed by big businesses.
People are about to find out he economy isn’t a light switch and won’t just switch back on.
Gold has no ceiling and the dollar has no floor.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/22/2020 • 45 minutes, 30 seconds
First Negative Interest Rates, Now Negative Oil Prices – Ep 564
Oil prices collapse into the negatives.
Lower oil prices are still inflationary.
Gold ETFs beginning to look risky as supplies lag demand.
Oil and gold may be the one-two punch that takes out the dollar.
The gold standard is coming back.
Unlike oil, at least Bitcoin will only go to zero.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/20/2020 • 43 minutes, 23 seconds
Government will Kill More Businesses Than it Saves – Ep 563
Optimism in market from progress toward vaccine.
Wall Street showing their bias against gold stocks.
Fed’s balance sheet climbing toward 7 trillion.
Bailouts will kill businesses.
Q&A
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/18/2020 • 1 hour, 36 minutes, 12 seconds
Self-inflicted Wounds Can Be Just as Fatal – Ep 562
Markets rallied yesterday and surrendered it all back today.
Financials did not participate in yesterday’s rally, signaling trouble ahead.
Banks getting backdoor bailouts.
Lenders clamping down on mortgages as housing market prepares to collapse.
Donald Trump buys votes with voters’ money.
2020 Election comes down to a Democrat vs. a Democrat.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/16/2020 • 45 minutes, 5 seconds
Gold Smokes Bitcoin – Ep 561
Gold hits 7 year high and is still cheaper than it’s ever been.
Mining stocks even better bargain than the metals.
Amazon and Netflix overvalued and waiting for bottom to drop.
Don’t fight the Fed.
Still not too late to buy gold.
Presidential election will be a bidding war for benefits and handouts.
US is producing less of everything except for money.
Real estate prices are going to collapse.
Cigarettes are a better currency than Bitcoin.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/13/2020 • 54 minutes, 25 seconds
More QEs than Super Bowls – Ep 560
Another week, another multi-trillion dollar Fed program.
Government spending has to be paid in either taxation or inflation and we’re about to pay for it in spades.
Trump draining the whole country instead of just the swamp - will add more debt in 4 years than Bush did in 8.
Unemployed will stay unemployed for a long time.
We’re buying time before an explosive rise in gold prices.
You can’t outperform a bubble.
Betting against the economy is not the same as rooting against the economy.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/9/2020 • 58 minutes, 1 second
Former Fed Chairs Still as Clueless as Ever – Ep 559
Markets overly optimistic that the worst is behind us.
Trump keeps his friends close and his enemies closer - gets Kudlow to repudiate everything he spent an entire career advocating.
Fed chairs past and present are clueless.
RINO DJT joins the ranks of FDR, JFK, and LBJ Dems.
Must watch Janet Yellen exposed videos referenced in this podcast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfLlF1vtit8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-9aZrmYEqk
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/8/2020 • 56 minutes, 48 seconds
Is Recovering from Depression to Recession a Recovery? – Ep 558
Jobs numbers came out today and the news didn’t matter.
Art Laffer knows there’s no free lunch - calls stimulus taxation.
Nothing is as permanent as a temporary government program.
S&P reaffirms US AA+ rating.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/3/2020 • 45 minutes, 26 seconds
The Tide is Out and Everyone’s Been Swimming Naked – Ep 557
China cashing in treasuries for oil.
Unemployment exploding.
Bankruptcies and layoffs to continue.
The old saying about the piper having to be paid is an old saying for a reason.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/2/2020 • 36 minutes, 56 seconds
The Fed’s Medicine Makes the Economy Sicker – Ep 556
Trying to fix this economy is like trying to unscramble an egg.
Government short circuiting capitalism.
Investors will rush to sell and there won’t be any buyers.
Politicians exploiting coronavirus to grab power, buy votes, hide blame.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/1/2020 • 37 minutes, 54 seconds
Printing Money Doesn’t Make Government Free – Ep 555
Full speed ahead to hyperinflation city.
Congress passed a 2.2 trillion dollar bill and already want more.
Employment is a hazard. Unemployment may become a gravy train.
Inflationary pressure mounting as companies retool their factories to make masks, ventilators, sanitizer, and other coronavirus related products.
Donald Trump is now the president of the United States AND the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/31/2020 • 40 minutes, 15 seconds
America is Already a Socialist Nation – Ep 554
Here's the link to Dave Ramsey agreeing with Peter Schiff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jsQ-EdQYVU
Thomas Massie vilified for having integrity.
Every other Republican should change their party affiliation to Democrat.
Bankruptcies don’t destroy industries — they destroy moral hazards.
Bernie may be a socialist, but Trump is officially a communist now.
US government now has the authority to nationalize any business in the country, providing the mechanism for a communist revolution without firing a shot.
The dollar is falling and the Fed can no longer pretend there will be an end to QE
The Gold Standard is coming back, but will coronavirus disrupt the gold miners?
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/27/2020 • 37 minutes, 24 seconds
Bernie Sanders has already won – Ep 553
Market rallies on relief of stimulus bill passing and biggest government expansion since the New Deal.
Increasing evidence that this will be the longest bear market in history, like the fact that the “experts” on CNBC believe the opposite.
Dollar starting to sink as fed dilutes its value with endless money printing.
The Greater Depression has just begun.
Unemployment now more lucrative than employment.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/26/2020 • 31 minutes, 42 seconds
QE Infinity and Beyond! – Ep 552
The Dow had the biggest rally today since 1933 during the Great Depression.
Physical gold market is selling out of inventory.
Stimulus package dragging on as Democrats pack in the porkbarrel.
The digital dollar is coming.
Pandora’s box has been opened on landlords.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/24/2020 • 32 minutes, 57 seconds
LIVE: QE infinity is here!
Spread the word. Help make knowledge go viral!
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/24/2020 • 3 hours, 35 minutes, 7 seconds
The Bubble Behind the Virus – Ep 551
Volatile day and week for the Dow, which ended down almost a thousand today..
The sacrifices we made in WWII are completely different than the sacrifices we’re making now
Milkshake theory is working, for now.
IRS deadlines should be postponed to Election Day.
Gold seeing more buyers; Bitcoin seeing less.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/20/2020 • 40 minutes, 47 seconds
Helicopter money was meant to be a joke – Ep 550
Dow ends it’s streak of thousand point moves after 8 consecutive days.
The unemployment claims are skyrocketing and they’re going to increase.
America lost every war it ever fought.
The government will not let this coronavirus crisis go to waste.
CNBC brings in captains of industry to weigh in with their bad ideas.
CEOs are looking for bailouts to protect their ownership of the companies, not the companies themselves.
Helicopter money was a term invented as a joke. Now the joke’s on us.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/20/2020 • 51 minutes
LIVE with Peter Schiff: The Real Crash Is Here
Peter Schiff is live and taking your questions as his predictions of the Real Crash unfold before our eyes. Streamed live March 18th.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/19/2020 • 4 hours, 30 minutes, 6 seconds
Wall St. Bailout 2.0 – Ep 549
Another day, another couple trillion dollars in QE. Fed doing everything they can to prevent market forces from raising interest rates to a market clearing level.
Sometimes stocks trade on peoples’ emotions and we’re seeing a lot of that now. Today marked the seventh consecutive day that the dow has moved by 1000 points. Markets surge on Trump’s promise of helicopter money and bailouts.
Dollar rallies sharply on what may be a technical head-fake. Gold likely finding it’s bottom and set to go higher.
Donald Trump is.a Socialist now and he’s trying to buy the election by bribing the electorate.
Elizabeth Warren has some conditions.
And while this podcast was being recorded, another bailout was announced!
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/18/2020 • 51 minutes, 23 seconds
Fed cuts rates to zero, ramps up QE – Ep 548
Fed finally did what I’ve been saying they would for years: cut rates to zero with the biggest point cut in history. Powell afraid to call it QE.
There are no atheists in foxholes; there are no free-market capitalists in a recession. If we fought WWII with bailouts, like the way we’re fighting coronavirus, we’d be speaking German now.
Waiting in line for food and toilet paper does not mean business is booming. Neither is having full hospitals.
More records broken today as the Dow lost almost 3,000 points - the biggest single day point drop in history! Percentage-wise, it was the second biggest drop percentage in history, next to the stock market crash of 1987. For all the years of the Great Depression and WWII, the economy never saw a drop like this.
The stock market has never lost this much value this quickly. The whole rest of the world is now tapping into their savings, but we have nothing left to rely on other than a printing press.
Gold takes a hit as investors cover their losses, but still down only 2% on the year compared to the Dow down 32%. Gold is liquid, easy to sell, yet its barely down, even though so many people are desperate enough to sell it.
Trump “pleasantly surprised” Powell followed his orders after having his job threatened.
Oh, and banks no longer need reserves.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/17/2020 • 44 minutes, 15 seconds
Bailout spreads nationwide – Ep 547
Dow up almost 2,000 points today; a record point gain, 10th biggest percentage gain, with most larger gains occurring during the bear market of the 1930s. We had a lot of stock market firsts this week and it was one of choppiest weeks on record.
Trump announces beginning of national bailout including open-ended moratorium on student interest loans, allowing debtors put their loans into deferment indefinitely and never pay them again. Trump leaves door open to bailout any industry in the country.
Lawsuits driving many shutdowns across the country.
Gold’s recent late day buys a sign of illiquid investors trying to get in at lows.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/14/2020 • 49 minutes, 40 seconds
Fed’s QE “cure” is fatal to the economy – Ep 546
Market reacted poorly to Trump’s Wednesday night coronavirus address. Today’s historic drop was the biggest since the 1987 crash.
Fed’s cure will be worse than coronavirus and fatal for US economy. QE5 coming with more cheap money and artificially low interest rates. CNBC says this is nothing like 2008, but everything about it is like 2008.
Jim Cramer proposes the US government suspend collecting taxes, increase all spending — and print all the money needed to pay for it.
Short term noise and illiquidity affecting gold stock. Nothing is a safe-haven on a daily basis.
Bond vigilantes are waking up and the bond market is starting to blow up.
Bitcoin and crypto market crash. CNBC remains silent. The whole bitcoin narrative is blowing up.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/13/2020 • 43 minutes, 48 seconds
Longest bull market in history officially ends – Ep 545
Longest bull market in US history is officially over and it’s the fastest we’ve ever gone from record highs to a bear market.
The same financial anchors who said not to worry about the banks in 2008 are saying the same thing now.
Dollar gained on yesterday’s strength, but still in a downtrend. Gold prices acting very similar to 2008.
Biden can’t lost and Trump can’t win.
Kudlow saying the same nonsense he was saying as a cheerleader of the President’s economy, except now he’s actually a player in it.
Inflation, even the way the government measures it, is breaking out of its slumber.
Companies more afraid than ever of legal consequences.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/12/2020 • 34 minutes, 52 seconds
Did fiscal stimulus just prick the bond bubble? – Ep 544
Markets, bitcoin, and the dollar had a Reversal Tuesday fueled by Trump’s promise of massive artificial fiscal stimulus. Trump trying to buy a second term, but with democrats holding stimulus hostage, stimulus will come with socialist labor laws and Keynesian helicopter money. Betting markets see now see Trump as the underdog.
Mandated paid sick leave will hurt employees.
Bailouts for oil, airlines, hotels, and cruise ships are just another backdoor bailout for the banks.
While all the safe-haven assets dropped today, bitcoin’s price rose along with the other risk assets. Bitcoin now trades highly correlated with the stock market.
Joe Biden’s gender-based VP list is sexist. Bernie Sanders says America’s tax system should be more like Sweden, then admits he knows very little about it.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/11/2020 • 42 minutes, 15 seconds
It’s not the oil, it’s the debt – Ep 543
Oil war that began today will bankrupt many US companies. 60% of stocks in Russell 2000 are lower now than when Donald “the stock market president” Trump took office. Financials continue to get clobbered and stimulus won’t help them this time. This time nobody will believe QE is temporary or interest rates will normalize. Australia looking to repeat the mistakes of others central banks.
Gold broke $1700 today, but didn’t break out. All the babies were thrown out with all the bathwater, including gold mining stocks. Gold price much stronger during this crisis than in 2008. In contrast, the dollar is now falling against other currencies. Massive swings in the currency markets leaving the dollar crumbling against other major safe-haven currencies, unlike in 2008 when that crisis sent the dollar soaring. Gold has much less ground to recover now so if it reacts the way it did after the fed’s last bailout, it has a lot more upside ahead.
Perfect conditions for a bitcoin rally, yet it’s collapsing as it fails to live up to hype and people realize it’s nothing more than digital risk. CNBC suddenly and conveniently seems to have forgotten the word “bitcoin.” Phenomenal opportunity now to dump bitcoin and buy gold before the bottom really drops out on bitcoin.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/10/2020 • 39 minutes, 1 second
Financial conditions are rapidly deteriorating – Ep 542
Week closes out with another big drop in the markets. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 hit new lows. Russell 2000 on-track to have lost value during Trump’s four years in office.
Oil prices are plunging, which is bullish news for gold mining companies as their production costs decrease and gold prices increase.
Fed’s balance sheet rose by a whole month's worth in one week and it looks like that trend will continue in the weeks to come. Fed’s crisis hasn’t even begun.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/7/2020 • 33 minutes, 57 seconds
Multiple bubbles pricked by same pin – Ep 541
Another huge move down in the markets today. Heavy carnage in the banks as treasury yields plunge.
Fed’s days of bubble blowing are over. Next dose of stimulus will be the overdose. Coronavirus may be the pin that pricks stock market, bond market, and bitcoin bubbles.
More bad news expected as the only previously strong jobs market, travel and leisure, starts to suffer from coronavirus. Layoffs will trickle through the economy quickly.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/6/2020 • 33 minutes, 14 seconds
The Fed’s gonna need a bigger rate cut – Ep 540
* More bearish technical signs in the market. Fed issues an historic 50-basis-point, inter-meeting, emergency rate cut. Investors are realizing Fed can’t cure the coronavirus or the markets with their rate cuts.
* Fed’s rate cut is decisively bullish for gold and silver. As the market was tanking, gold had one of it’s best days in a while, signaling more strength ahead.
* Who were Friday's gold sellers?
* Better to have been early and right, than late and wrong. The Real Crash is coming.
* Democrats would rather lose with Biden than risk winning with Sanders
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/4/2020 • 34 minutes, 43 seconds
Stimulus overdose to propel gold to new highs – Ep 539
Bear markets have notoriously big rallies as they fall down the slope of hope. Today’s record breaking 1200 point rally in the Dow may be an example of that. Markets betting on a 50 basis point rate cut to interest rates and more quantitative easing.
Part of the market rally likely also due to diminishing chance of a Bernie Sanders presidency. But Biden will also be bad for the markets and he has a greater chance of winning
Nothing goes up in straight lines. Bull markets have notoriously big declines as they climb the wall of worry, which we may have seen on Friday. Gold stock positioned for record highs.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/3/2020 • 33 minutes, 40 seconds
When a market priced for perfection doesn’t get it – Ep 538
* Dow down 404% with a record 1200 point drop.
* Coronavirus damage to the market cannot be undone
* Major discounts in the gold mining stocks
* Coronavirus task force is more like a plunge protection team for the stock market
* Fed’s bullets may no longer work against superman bubble
* I have a PR problem in PR
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/28/2020 • 38 minutes, 10 seconds
Bitcoin pumpers forced to admit it’s not digital gold – Ep 537
US stock market pounded again for the 6th day in a row.
Two back to back days with markets down 3%. The only time it’s ever happened three days in a row was during the great depression.
Gold living up to its role as a store of value.
Bitcoin fails the test as a reserve currency.
Bitcoin pumpers forced to admit it is not digital gold. It’s digital risk.
Democrat candidates pander against each other.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/27/2020 • 44 minutes, 36 seconds
Gold will be the only safe haven left standing – Ep 536
* All major indexes down and looking weak.
* Bubble is looking for a pin and coronavirus might be it.
* Dumb money is piling into treasuries. Safe-haven money is moving to gold.
* CNBC still obsessed with bitcoin. Remains silent on record breaking gold prices.
* Warren Buffet thinks Bitcoin is garbage and it’s going to $0.
* Baby Boomers sowed the winds for socialism.
* If you thought Obama was bad with executive orders, just wait for a President Sanders.
* The markets will drop by 50% under President Sanders.
* More people will die from the Sanders virus than coronavirus.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/25/2020 • 46 minutes, 55 seconds
Bonds are the bubble, gold is the pin – Ep 535
* Significant moves in the bond market today.
* Coronavirus is inflationary.
* US has never been less credit-worthy than it is right now.
* US treasuries have the lowest yields in history and are GUARANTEED TO LOSE money.
* Bond market is now undisputedly a bubble, but CNBC spins a different view.
* I won a bet.
* Perspective is everything when it comes to an investment strategy.
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/22/2020 • 53 minutes, 5 seconds
CNBC dismisses Citi’s $2k gold call and pumps Bitcoin instead – Ep 534
Liz Claman has a new podcast called “Everyone Talks to Liz Claman.” It’s a great show and I was on it earlier this week where I talked about growing up, some personal stories, and things you haven’t heard me talk about in other interviews. I highly encourage you to check out the episode here.
Coronavirus continues to help the dollar, but is helping gold even more. Gold’s bull market continues upward as more countries see their currencies lose record value to gold.
Citibank calls for $2k gold within 1-2 years. CNBC dismisses the call as an unimpressive 25% gain and pumps bitcoin instead.
Gold may be the best hedge against the stock market. Gold ETFs have accumulated a record amount of gold in storage.
Gold is up 60% in the past 4 years. Get your gold and silver BEFORE the big moves start happening.
* The best way to own physical gold is by purchasing it from SchiffGold.
* The best way to own gold jewelry is by purchasing from Menet jewelry. If you bought some when I first promoted it, you could trade it in for MORE gold than you originally purchased.
* If you want to see more of a return on gold’s climb, buy the Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX)
RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/
Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news
Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/21/2020 • 53 minutes, 9 seconds
QE won’t cure the Coronavirus or the economy – Ep 533
Coronavirus may be worse than anyone thought, but why aren’t the markets worried?
Gold mining stocks looking positive again.
Underlying weakness in the dollar being revealed in gold.
Obama and Trump are fighting over a booming economy that doesn’t exist.
1/3rd of Americans run out of money between paychecks.
Over 25% of households spend half or more of their income on rent.
Delinquencies on auto-loans are higher now than they were at the worst part of the great recession.
Bernie Sanders has an advantage over Michael Bloomberg.
Art Laffer cheerleads Trump on Fox Business.
Trump nominates ass-kissing liar to the Fed.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/19/2020 • 47 minutes, 4 seconds
The political center keeps moving left – Ep 532
Nobody seems to be talking about the downward revisions in the jobs reports, particularly for 2018. Trump’s celebrated jobs numbers have been revised down 370k jobs for that year.
Obama’s weak jobs record is better than Trump’s. A lot more jobs were created in the last 3 years of Obama’s presidency than the last 3 years of Trump’s.
Deficits are exploding through the roof. Trump is setting records in government debt, but thanks to Trump and the Republicans, no one cares about the deficits anymore.
Gold hit a record high in terms of the Euro, which means people who are bearish on the Euro are turning to gold as a safe-haven.
Stock market doesn’t seem to be worried about the possibility of a President Bernie Sanders. Maybe they want more QE and negative interest rates?
Bernie Sanders can out-promise Trump and people are underestimating the power of all that free money.
Sean Hannity’s fake outrage is not a good look.
Owning a home does not make you wealthy.
Bitcoin may be rising now, but it’s still not gold.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/13/2020 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 48 seconds
The Trump Show – Ep. 531
The impeachment trial of Donald Trump ends no real surprise, he was acquitted. The whole thing came down along party lines and was all calculated political theater and posturing for the 2020 election.
But the real theater was during Trump’s State of the Union last night. Trump pitched socialist policies and touted his fake Chinese trade deal. He spoke to Congress for 90 minutes and not once mentioned the national debt. Since Trump took office, trade deficits have increased and manufacturing jobs have decreased. More women are forced to join the workforce due to economic circumstances at home.
If the economy were as good as Trump claims, he’d be calling on congress to cut spending or balance the budget or reduce the size of budget deficits. If you can’t tackle the debt when the economy is in the greatest boom in the history of the world, when can you tackle it? Trump apparently can’t find one program or agency to cut spending on. Instead he just bragged about all the social programs and weapons he was spending money on, not to mention Space Force!
Trump is playing a massive PR game right now.
Rush Limbaugh has cancer.
Liberals are sick.
Pete Budajudge wins the Iowa Caucus disaster.
Sanders wants to give new “Rights” to the disabled.
Markets have recouped from their recent “coronavirus sell-off.”
Ford Motor Company earnings disappoint investors.
GM is still trading where it was 7 years ago.
Tesla is a bubble in itself.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
“So goes January, so goes the year.” If the old adage is true, this could mean the longest bull market in history is coming to an end. And from a political perspective, it couldn’t come at a worse time.
Another adage in investing is “buy the rumor sell the fact.” I mentioned in a recent podcast that investors would soon be selling the facts behind Trump’s trade deal. Well, it didn’t take very long for the markets to find a reason to sell.
The markets were clobbered today and contrary to what the media says, the coronavirus is not the reason. It’s just an excuse and if they didn’t have the coronavirus, they’d find something else to blame. A lot of the stocks going down are retailers and have nothing to do with coronavirus. If the coronavirus passes and this slump in the market doesn’t, reasons for optimism will start fade fast.
2019 numbers show only 2.3% GDP growth. Could 3 rate cuts and a return to QE possibly be the reason?
Joe Biden gave Bernie Sanders a bone by claiming he’s not a real Democrat. Voters are sick of party insiders and this will backfire on Biden the way it did on the Republican candidates when they accused Trump of not being a real Republican.
Nobody would invent keto ice cream in a Socialist economy.
Gold stocks continue to be undervalued. This is a gift horse and you don’t want to look it in the mouth.
Gold is up again. If gold is this strong with the headwind of a strengthening dollar, just imagine the strength it will have with the tailwind of a falling dollar.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/1/2020 • 46 minutes, 49 seconds
Sanders surge more dangerous than coronavirus – Ep. 529
Weak days for the stock market Friday and Monday will likely be blamed on the coronavirus.
The real virus to be concerned about is Bernie Sanders as he infects more voters with his rapidly spreading burn.
Bernie Sanders was on Phil Donahue in 1981 when it made news that a Vermont town elected a Socialist mayor. Phil Donahue asks if he believed in competition. Bernie Sanders said no. He said he believes in cooperation, a.k.a. Socialism/Marxism/Communism.
Bernie has certainly been very consistent. He’s been saying the same things the past 30-40 years, but he’s been wrong the whole time. He never grew up, became wise, or developed intellectually. He’s Peter Pan except he can’t fly.
The stock market has barely started to react to the possibility of a Sanders president and that possibility may be becoming a probability. And if not Sanders 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in a good position for 2024
Frustrated father questions Elizabeth Warren about her student loan policies and she laughs in his face.
Gold is up better than 4% for the year and there are more reasons to be bullish on gold stocks.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/28/2020 • 47 minutes, 40 seconds
Capitalism empowers people. Socialism empowers government – Ep. 528
While I was at VRIC, Trump was in Davos touting to other world leaders the “unmatched” period of prosperity America is experiencing, thanks to him.
Trump claims that nobody benefits more from his presidency than the middle class. In reality, the only people benefitting are the asset owners - the 1%.
There are more women than men in the workforce for the first time ever. Housing prices and household income are at all-time highs. Trump spins these as signs of a healthy economy, but the opposite is true.
This period of prosperity America is going through is a figment of Trump’s imagination, but the Republican party and Wall St aren’t questioning it.
On CNBC, Trump tells Joe Kernen that he still doesn’t know who’s buying these negative yielding bonds. He admits to having no intentions of paying off the national debt or cutting government spending. Trump pretends we can pay for it all with the bubble that he thinks is an economic “boom.” Trump and the Fed are proving there is no exit strategy for these inflationary policies.
Tesla stock, the most heavily shorted stock has skyrocketed, putting shorts through the grinder.
Sanders passes Biden to #1 in the Democratic presidential polls. Democrats are worried because Sanders will actually try the socialist policies that they know won’t work. It’s not common a Democratic presidential candidate has principles. Unfortunately, this time those principles are socialism. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and the people who vote for Sanders are going to be feeling the burn worse than anyone.
If you thought socialism was scary, AOC has gone full blown communist. She says inventors, business owners, and entrepreneurs are stealing off the backs of the workers and the workers should organize and steal those businesses back.
AOC and Bernie are reactions to Trump and when this economy finally blows up on Trump’s watch, it’s going to pave the way for a socialist (or worse) president of the United States of America. And there may not be any coming back from that.
Also, I lost all my bitcoin. They’re gone.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/23/2020 • 59 minutes, 56 seconds
The Art of the Fake Trade Deal – Ep. 527
Dow Jones closed above 29,000 today for the first time ever. Part of the impotence of this rally has been anticipation of the trade deal with China, but the majority of the rally is due to the policies of the Fed as it quietly returns to quantitative easing. The so-called good news of the trade deal is in the past and traders who were buying the rumors may start selling off on the facts. Especially since the facts of the trade deal didn’t even live up to the rumors.
The trade deal is a big fat disappointment that didn’t live up to Trump’s hype. It’s not even a real deal; it’s written as a bunch of suggestions that either party can back-out of at any time. The deal is a double-win for China. It supposedly commits China to buying more food and energy from the U.S., but China ends up getting the commodities they need with an easy way to unload their U.S. treasuries before they collapse. The Fed will have to buy more treasuries and print more money, to keep interest rates from going up.
Gold market stronger now after the trade deal signed. Gold’s technicals haven’t looked like this since 2000 when the dot com bubble burst and gold’s bear market ended. Americans don’t see the gold bull market that foreigners do because gold has made a new high in every currency except the U.S. dollar and is outperforming foreign stock markets, but not the U.S. stock market.
Fed released a weak jobs report with a big loss of 12,000 manufacturing jobs. Americans are working less hours and getting paid less for the hours they work.
Bloomberg wins the democratic debates by not showing up. Democratic presidential candidates are right about healthcare costs being too high, but they’re wrong about the reasons and solutions.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/16/2020 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 40 seconds
War is off so risk is on – Ep. 526
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are less diffused than everyone seems as the propaganda strengthens on both sides of the political theater.
NASDAQ, Dow, S&P hit new record highs. Trump is eager for Dow to hit 30k so he can tweet up a storm claiming credit.
Risk premiums for crude and gold are still there although gold mining stocks got obliterated as war became less imminent. Investors were spooked as gold dropped from $1610 to $1540 in a 24 hour period. Despite gold mining stocks getting crushed, gold itself is up 2% for the year. This presents an even better buy for gold stocks as they catch up to gold’s $1550 support.
People are underestimating the popularity of socialism in America and investors are underestimating the possibility of a Bernie Sanders win.
A lawsuit tries to postpone California’s new law aimed at the gig economy. Lawmakers say it’s to protect independent contractors, but it’s the independent contractors filing the lawsuit.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/10/2020 • 49 minutes, 19 seconds
Iranian missiles launch gold past $1,600 – Ep. 525
We had a break-through in gold, which I predicted could happen. That means there’s a very good chance gold is done going down. All signs point to a big bull market in gold and the window of opportunity to get in on it may be closing rapidly. While recording this podcast, reports of a U.S. airbase in Iraq under attack from Iranian missiles launched gold above $1,600.
It’s amazing how little people understand about how well gold mining stocks are performing. While the S&P has returned 72% over the past 4 years, GDX has returned 125% over the same period. Over the past 5 quarters, S&P is up 12% while GDX is up 58%. You won’t hear any of that on CNBC.
I think the best way to gain exposure to gold mining stocks is to buy the Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX), managed by the expert, Adrian Day. Morning Star gave the Euro Pacific Gold Fund 5 stars and it’s been the number 1 performing gold fund from 2013 to 2018. The fund is also rated to have above average returns and below average risks, making it one of the smartest investments you can make right now.
Videos to watch:
Peter Schiff at Occupy Wall Street "I am the 1%. Let's Talk"
Democrats: Let’s Ban Profits
2006 Mortgage Bankers Speech
Walmart Shoppers Support Everyday High Wages
Is a College Degree Worth the Cost? You Decide
Peter Schiff Argues Against 3 Typical Liberals (my last appearance on CNN)
Mr. Schiff Goes to Washington (first Congressional testimony)
Mr. Schiff Returns to Washington (second Congressional testimony)
Peter Schiff Stand-up Comedy .
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/8/2020 • 1 hour, 55 seconds
Gold climbs wall of worry to $1,550 – Ep. 524
Markets off to a volatile start for the new year.
U.S. assassinates an Iranian military general driving up safe haven investments like oil, gold, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Treasury market. Gold outshines them all. But is the world safer or more dangerous than ever?
Bitcoin touted as the best performing asset of the decade. But it’s not that simple.
CNBC thinks the hardest job for the Fed is creating inflation. The biggest problem is really their inability to stop inflation. The monetary spigots are flowing heavy and they’re going to flow even heavier leading up to the election.
It’s a dangerous time for markets with the coming election. There was a time when America would never vote in socialism, but that’s no longer the case. This election may bring in one of the largest single day stock market drops in history.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/4/2020 • 48 minutes, 32 seconds
Ringing in a Decade of Stagflation – Ep. 523
Second to Last Trading of the Decade...
All of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the second to last trading day of this year in the red. Although, it's not just the second to last trading day of the year, it is the second to last trading day of the decade. Technically speaking, I know the next decade doesn't really start until January 1, 2021, but practically speaking, it's going to be the 20's. So, to me, that's a new decade.
Closing With a Gain of About 30% in the S&P
So let's just say tomorrow is the last trading day of the decade. And even if we get another decline tomorrow, I don't know what's going to happen - maybe we'll get a bounce, but I doubt it will be significant enough to turn the tide on this bull market or this bubble - bear market rally - whatever you want to call it - but it looks like we're going to close the year with a gain of about 30% in the S&P 5000.
Not our Strongest Year in Recent Memory
That's going to put the market with its best annual increase since 2013 - which, of course is not that long ago. So we did have a rise in 2013 when Obama was President, where the S&P had a year that was as good as this year, with Donald Trump as President. So clearly, it's not simply a case that we have Trump as President and that's why we have such a strong market. We've had plenty of years where the market was this strong and Trump wasn't President. In fact, Barack Obama was President. One of the reasons that the market was so strong this year is because it finished last year so weak. I think the 4th quarter of last year we were down 13 - 14% - but it was a very big decline which would have been much much bigger but for that record surge the day after Christmas. Remember that Boxing Day - I think the Dow was up about 1,000 points.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/31/2019 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 41 seconds
America’s Economy Is the Biggest Bubble Ever – Ep. 522
Liz Claman, Gene Epstein, Jim Grant, Peter Schiff, David Tice, Tom Woods at the NYC Premier of Jimmy Morrison's "The Bubble" Order The Bubble here
November Personal Income and Spending Positive
On Friday, all of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the day and the week positive, in record territory. The only index not in record territory (but it did make a new 52-week high) is the Russell 2000. The supposed catalyst for Friday's optimism was a better than expected report on Personal Income & Spending for November. They were looking for personal spending to rise by .3% following the prior month's flat number. They actually revised that one up to +.1%, and the November number came out at +.5%, so incomes rising. Spending came in and met expectations of +.4%, so apparently the savings rate ticked up a bit. But this was better than expected. I think that caused some optimism on Wall Street.
Kansas City Manufacturing Index Disappoints
But the markets likely would have gone up, anyway, even if that number disappointed. We did get weak data from manufacturing. Kansas City manufacturing number came out for November. It was supposed to be weak at a -3%, but it was even weaker at -8%. That is the lowest level for this index in 4 years. . In fact, we've had 6 consecutive monthly declines in the Kansas City Manufacturing Index, and that really is par for the course. We get stronger economic data when it comes to people spending money but we have weaker data when it comes to generating real production, real wealth, goods production manufacturing - all that data comes out weaker than expected.
U.S. Steel Lays off 1,500 Workers in Michigan
In fact, we got news on Friday that U.S. is going to be laying off more than 1500 workers in the state of Michigan. Of course, this flies in the face of the fantasy that is being promoted by Donald Trump that the steel industry is back - the steel industry is booming. He's been talking a lot since he's been elected about the steel industry, in particular, about how he saved it, and how it's great. But here we are, laying off workers, shutting down production facilities. This is a sign that reality is in direct contradiction to President Trump's fantasy.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/21/2019 • 58 minutes, 56 seconds
Trayvon Martin Race Hoax Exposed – Ep. 522
Narrative of Racism
So I decided to record a special edition of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast, and it's very important topic, and I also wanted to include some video. It's not directly related to the economy or the markets, but really, indirectly, it is, because this nation is being pushed to the left by a lot of false narratives. One of them, being racism, particularly when it comes to the issues of wealth disparity and trying to blame the difference in wealth between African Americans and the general population, and the reason for this is because of a pervasive and systemic racism, and that the only way that African Americans can succeed is if we elect a bunch of socialists who will enact laws to save them from racism and to re-distribute the wealth.
Media Remains Steadfast as Evidence Contradicts
And part of that narrative really was advanced back in 2012 with the Trayvon Martin incident with George Zimmerman and people who were listening to the Peter Schiff Show back in 2012, I really covered this topic pretty extensively. I was one of the earliest defenders of Zimmerman, and the reason I did that is because, as the evidence was coming out, it was completely contradicting the false narrative that was being pushed by the Martin family, by the media. Yet the media remains steadfast in their opinion, even though they had all this evidence that contradicted it.
New Information Brought to Light
Well, the reason that I've resurrected this topic is that now George Zimmerman is in the news again, he has filed a $100 million lawsuit against the Trayvon Martin family, the mom and dad, the lawyers, prosecutors, and the media is again pushing the same false narrative. They are writing all sorts of articles really vilifying Zimmerman all over again: "How dare this guy file this lawsuit! Hasn't he done enough damage? He murdered a child and now he is suing the parents of the victim - all this terrible coverage.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/18/2019 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 18 seconds
Phase One Is a Truce, Not a Victory – Ep. 521
U.S. China Trade Deal Rumors are True
The U.S. stock market continues to add to its gains; the Dow Jones is up another 100 points today - a new record high: 28,235.89. We were up better than 200 points at one point in the day, but all the indexes are hitting new 52-week, or record highs. Basically, we continue to bask in the light of the U.S. China Trade Deal that on Friday, we finally got news that the rumors of a trade deal were actually true. There actually is a trade deal because the Chinese have agreed, or admitted that they, too have come to some type of understanding with the United States on a Phase 1 Deal.
Lost in Translation?
Of course, we don't actually have the phase 1 deal yet because nothing is actually official; nothing has been signed. In fact, both sides seem to have different versions over what they have agreed to; so maybe some of the stuff has been "lost in translation". We'll have to see if they can actually put something in writing where both sides will agree.
A Truce in the Trade War
But one thing we know is that whatever is involved in this deal - this is not the resolution. This is not a trade deal; this isn't even the end of the trade war. I would say it's probably a truce. It's not an outright surrender, although that's probably coming eventually, but it's really a truce in the trade war, and a de-escalation of arms. One of the things that the U.S. is supposedly committed to is rolling back the tariffs. Not only calling off new tariffs that were supposed to take effect over the weekend, but eliminating or reducing the tariffs that are already in place. But as far as a comprehensive deal that actually delivers the type of structural change that President Trump promised; nobody thinks that any of that stuff is involved in this deal at all.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/17/2019 • 59 minutes, 53 seconds
Volcker Dies as Inflation Comes Back to Life – Ep. 520
Fed: Interest Rates on Pause
Today the Federal Reserve had its last official meeting of the year. And, as was widely expected, the Federal Reserve was unanimous in their decision not to cut interest rates. They didn't even consider hiking interest rates, but they decided not to cut them any further for now. So, they're on a pause. The short-term rates are now 1.5%. The target is 1.5% to 1.75%, and the idea is that the Fed is going to remain there for some time. Now, I don't really think it is going to be that long before they cut rates.
Fed Will be back to Rate Cutting Soon
I was on Fox Business earlier today with Liz Claman, and Liz asked me when I thought they were going to cut rates in 2020. I said, I don't know the exact meeting, that they're going to choose to do it. I think a lot of it depends on what's happening with the stock market. As soon as the stock market starts to sell off, if that's what happens, I think that could motivate the Fed for the next rate cut. And maybe, if we get enough bad economic data, the Fed might move for that reason. But whatever the reason is going to be, whatever the excuse they're going to make up, the Fed is not done cutting. I don't think they will pause until 2021 or later, as a lot of people seem to believe. I think the Fed is going to be back in the rate cutting business much sooner than that.
The November deficit: $2o9 Billion
Of course, the quantitative easing business - that's not going to stop. They're going to continue to expand their balance sheet and print money so that they can prop up the bond market and prop up the stock market and prop up the government. So that is going to continue. In fact, we got the official budget deficit released, I guess at about the same time as we got the Fed decision. The November deficit: $2o9 billion. We've not got two months into this quarter and the deficits are running much higher than they were earlier, so even though the economy is supposedly getting better, the deficits are getting bigger.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/12/2019 • 39 minutes, 48 seconds
Justice for George – Ep. 519
The Trayvon Hoax: Unmasking The Witness Fraud That Divided America
Jeantel's Lies: Prosecution's Star Witness in George Zimmerman Trial Commits Perjury
Special Podcast about a Hoax
I wanted to to take some time and record a special podcast today, really having nothing to do with the markets and the economy and just focus on a topic that I haven't discussed in quite some time. I do believe that the politics surrounding this event are relevant to the economy, and to the markets, although, because really has set in motion political winds that are blowing the country in a direction that is very detrimental to the U.S. economy and to the markets.
Circumstances Surrounding the Death of Trayvon Martin
I think it was 2012 when the Trayvon Martin story really took off in the U.S. If you remember, George Zimmerman is the person killed Trayvon Martin and, initially, everybody was quick to believe the completely ridiculous-sounding story that was being perpetrated by the Martin family and their attorney, as to what happened, and the circumstances surrounding the death of Trayvon Martin.
Who is the Racist?
I was one of the earlier who came out and I was defending George Zimmerman. I took a lot of heat back then, initially, because people were saying, "Hey, it's racist for me to be defending George Zimmerman. But the reality was, I thought it was racist for the people to have believed the complete nonsense - a ridiculous story about what happened. It made a lot more sense to me, just judging by the facts, not looking at the races of the individuals or any of that, just judging by the facts - George Zimmerman's version of events made sense.
Plausible vs. Implausible
The other version made no sense at all. I think it was the racists who were so quick to dismiss George Zimmerman's version, which made sense, was supported by all the evidence and the other witness testimony that came out - rather than simply believing the parents of Trayvon Martin or their lawyer.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/11/2019 • 39 minutes, 17 seconds
Another Trumped up Jobs Report – Ep. 518
Schiffbooks.com
Letusdissagree.com
Mene.com
Dow Up From Last Week's Trade Deal Woes
The Dow Jones closed out the week with 3 plus days in a row, culminating in today's 337 point jump, back above 28,000 - the Dow settling in at 28,015.06. Remember, when I recorded my podcast on Tuesday, we had just finished 3 consecutive down days in a row, and that's been reversed. The catalyst for the decline, prior to my last podcast was negative news on trade. In particular, the news that Donald Trump, at a press conference, let the cat out of the bag and said, "As far as I'm concerned, it would be better if we waited until after the election to have a trade deal with China. And, of course, the markets were expecting a trade deal any day and all of a sudden Trump is saying, "Hey, I think it's better to wait until after the election." - which is a year from now. Of course, it's not a lock that Trump is going to win a second term. Nonetheless, that was a negative for the market.
Positive Trade News Equals New Dow Highs
Well, what happened, was, on Monday morning, pretty much before they even rang the bell, the White House was already doing damage control and walking that back because all of a sudden I started reading these headlines, "White House Says Trade Talks Going Well". Of course, that means nothing. But you have a lot of traders now who are keying in on these press releases. As soon as they see any positive news, they just buy. As long as positive trade news makes the market go up, whenever they see the positive trade news, they're going to buy.
Will We Ever Have a Fact to Sell On?
The reason that all of this news makes people want to buy stocks is because everybody believes that when we do get a deal, the stock market's going to soar. So everybody wants to be in so they can sell that rally. Of course, I've been saying since the beginning that I think it would be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact", which is why we're probably never going to have a fact to sell.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/7/2019 • 52 minutes, 58 seconds
Trump Trade Talk Tanks Stocks – Ep. 517
What Phase One?
When the Phase One trade deal was first announced, it was October 11, I think was the date. And before that date, nobody ever heard, "Phase One". It was always, "trade deal, trade deal". There was never any talk of Phase One. Then all of a sudden Trump comes out and says, "We've completed Phase One! The Phase One deal is done. We have concluded negotiations, we have come to a deal. We have this great Phase One deal; it's already done. It's in the bag. We've agreed to it in principle, all we need is the formalities of putting it on paper. We're going to have a big signing ceremony, and it's all going to be done." Oh, and by the way, Trump said, "This is the greatest deal ever for American farmers. They have never had a deal this great; go out and buy some more tractors; I don't even know if we can fill this order, it's so big - it's the biggest order in the history of agriculture!" It's a good thing farmers didn't go out and buy new equipment based on Trump's phony promises.
Sending the Dow Up - Buy the Rumor!
But in any event Marc Faber asked Wilbur Ross, "Do you regret this?" Do you think Trump should not have come out and said this?" And he said, "No, we don't regret it." Of course, why should he regret it? The Dow rose by 1600 points following that comment! That comment sparked all sorts of more comments; the deal is imminent any day, any week or they're going to sign it here... "Buy the rumor, buy the rumor, buy the rumor!" And they pushed the market. The Dow went through 28,000 on all that B.S. So why should Wilbur Ross regret that, when the comments worked?
Bidding the Spoos Higher
I said a long, time ago: "Trump is not talking to the Chinese. He's not negotiating, because if he was, he's the worst negotiator ever. He ought to read, "The Art of the Deal". What he is saying makes no sense, if you're trying to negotiate. The only way Trump's statements make any sense is if they're really designed to boost the stock market. He's not talking to the Chinese; he's talking to the algo's. He's talking to the traders. He's trying to bid the spoos higher.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/4/2019 • 1 hour, 8 minutes, 23 seconds
Be Thankful for Capitalism – Ep. 516
Recorded November 26, 2019
The Radical Solution Should Be Free Market Capitalism
The problem is, this coming crisis is going to be so bad, it's going to be so much worse than 2008 and you know it's all going to be blamed on capitalism. It's all going to be the left saying "We told you so!" "We cut taxes for the rich, we deregulated. Trump inherited a great economy from Obama and everything he inherited he squandered it with tax cuts for the rich." And things are going to be very tough. People will demand radical solutions. I wish the radical solution could be Free Market Capitalism, because we haven't had that in a long time - but everybody's convinced that that's all we've had. Even the people who supposedly defend capitalism think that it needs a makeover, that it needs to be re-done for the modern era.
Get Government Out and Market Forces Back In
We don't need to re-do capitalism. We just NEED capitalism. What we have to do is get all the socialism out of capitalism. It's giving it a bad name. We need to get government out of all this stuff so that market forces can get back in.
How Old Is Too Young to Vote?
I want to finish up the podcast talking about voting. So I read this article about a town, Brookline, that had approved a measure to lower the voting age down to 16. That's part of the Democrat platform. In addition to doing away with the Electoral College and making D.C. and Puerto Rico states, they want to lower the voting age to 16. I don't blame the Democrats for wanting the 16-year-olds to vote; almost all of them are going to vote Democrat, because, they're only 16 - what do you expect? In fact, the Democrats want 14-year-olds - 10-year-olds, 5-year-olds! The younger the better!
Directly Pandering to Children for Votes
They're not old enough to know any better. It's so much easier to fool these people. But I can just imagine elections where the politicians have to directly pander to children in order to get their votes.
Raise the Voting Age
So I tweeted that this is a step in the wrong direction. We shouldn't be lowering the voting age, we should be increasing the voting age. The response was, "Oh, my God! How could you want to do that?". We've talked about that on this podcast before. The voting age up until the 26th Amendment in the early 7o's was 21. The idea was, if you're old enough to fight for your country you're old enough to vote. No. That makes as much sense as saying that if you're too old to fight, you're too old to vote.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/27/2019 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 21 seconds
Maybe Trump Can Close a Phase 1A Trade Deal – Ep. 515
What a Shocker
The phase one trade deal is not going to happen this year. What a shocker. If you remember, when Trump first surprised everybody and talked about a phase 1 deal. If you remember, it was never phases; it was one big comprehensive Deal. In fact early on, and I've said this before, the President scoffed at the idea that we would negotiate in stages. "That wasn't going to work, It's all or nothing, we need to get the big comprehensive deal. " Then all of a sudden he announces this phase 1 deal, and he say it's going to be the greatest deal, it's going to be great for farmers, the Chinese are going to buy 50 billion dollars worth of food; American farmers better buy some more equipment; we don't even know if they can fill this order, it's the biggest order anyone has ever had; it's the greatest achievement in the history of achievements - all this was supposedly a done deal. And then nothing happened.
Phase One China Trade Deal
Of course, Kudlow and other White House people would come out and,"Oh, the phase 1 deal is almost here - but now Reuters is saying it's not going to happen this year. Now, it's probably not going to happen next year either, I mean, maybe, because phase 1 - there's hardly anything involved in it, at least the way it is going to end up being.
How About Phase 1a?
But what I think the President should probably do is forget about phase 1. How about phase 1a? Let's break down phase 1 into a, b and c. Let's at least do phase 1a. First we could tease 1a, and then when we get phase 1a, if we ever get phase 1a well then we've got phase 1b to talk about!
Surrender without Admitting Defeat
Of course, none of this is going to matter, because none of the real stuff is going to be included in any of these phases. Whether it's 1,2,a,b… Whatever it is, this is all a way for the President to try to save face and surrender in the trade war without actually admitting defeat.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/21/2019 • 45 minutes, 8 seconds
QE4 Sends Dow Above 28,000 – Ep. 514
Markets Making More Milestones
The Dow continued its weekly winning streak with another milestone, closing above 28,000 for the first time: 28,004.89 to be exact. That's a gain of 222.93. Now, I'm sure everybody is getting their "Dow 30,000!" hats ready, because obviously that's not too far off, now from 28,000. But it's not just the Dow that is setting records and crossing milestones. The NASDAQ - another record high today - up 61.81, closing at 8,540.83. That's the first time the NASDAQ has been above 8,500. The S&P also making new highs, up 23.83 - 3120.46 is the close. This is the first time the S&P has been above 3100.
Russell 2000 Sitting Out the Party
The only major index really not enjoying the party, although it was up again today is the Russell 2000, still not quite near an all-time record high. That index is at 1,596. Again, the Russell is the one that most reflects the domestic economy, and it is the domestic economy that is in a lot of trouble. In fact, the Dow rose today, despite more weak economic data that was released during the day.
Industrial Production: Weak
Probably the weakest data point of them all was on industrial production. It was supposed to drop again after falling .4% in September, and they did revise the September drop to -.3% from -.4%. But instead of a .4 drop in October, which was the consensus forecast, we dropped by .8. So twice as large a decline. In fact, I think you have to go back to March of 2009 to see a larger decline than that in industrial production. Capacity Utilization really contracted as well, from 77.5; it went all the way down to 76.7.
Halfway to Recession
And we also got more weak news on business inventories, which were revised lower. And I think that, and industrial production and some other weak data points that had come out caused the Atlanta Fed to reduce its forecast for Q4 GDP all the way down to .3%. It was at 1%, and now it's at .3% which is close to zero. And in fact, it's very likely that we could end up with a negative print for Q4 GDP, which means we're halfway to recession.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/16/2019 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 47 seconds
Rich Democrats Secretly Prefer Trump to Warren – Ep. 513
Why is Michael Bloomberg Actively Preparing to Enter the 2020 Presidential Race?
I want to talk a little bit about Michael Bloomberg, entering the primary - and the reason that I think Michael Bloomberg is in. Bloomberg is now a Democrat, but he was a Republican. He served as mayor of New York as a Republican for 2 terms. Then, I think he served a third term as an independent. But he was a Republican and now he's a Democrat. The reality is, he is a very middle of the road guy. He's a liberal Republican or a conservative Democrat. But conservative Democrats have not place in the modern Democrat party. I think Bloomberg's motivation to throw his hat in the ring is the diminishing prospects of Joe Biden. Initially, everybody thought, "OK, Joe Biden's the guy." I think Michael Bloomberg was fine with a President Biden because it represented a continuation of the status quo and the status quo has been very good to Michael Bloomberg, do why wouldn't he want to continue that status quo?
Socialists are Frankenstein's Monster Consuming the Democratic Party
But with the rise of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and the increasing likelihood that Warren could actually be the next President, I think that scares the hell out of Mike Bloomberg and I think it also scares the hell out of Mike Bloomberg's rich friends who are also Democrats. This is an example of Frankenstein and the monster. Baron Von Frankenstein created a monster and then Frankenstein's monster turned on its creator. And I think that's what these limousine liberals have done with the Democrat party. They have created this monster and now the monster is about to consume them.
Rich Democrats Would Rather Re-Elect Trump Than Support Warren or Sanders
I think what wealthy liberals are afraid to admit is, as much as they claim they don't like Donald Trump (and some of them don't like Donald Trump) they dislike Warren even more. A lot of these rich Democrats would rather see Trump re-elected than have Warren or Sanders elected. Now they don't want to come out and admit that, but they don't want to support a socialist. They're not that crazy - but they don't want the rest of the crazies in the Democratic party to know that.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/13/2019 • 46 minutes, 1 second
Destroying Savings Doesn’t Create Jobs – Ep. 512
Better Luck Next Fall
I just got back yesterday from the New Orleans Investment Conference, and I actually came to Connecticut for a few days; I really wanted to experience some of the fall foliage. It's normally at its peak in the beginning of November. But, unfortunately we had a big storm here - a lot of rain, a lot of wind, and it knocked most of the leaves off of the trees. So you know what they say about the best laid plans… hopefully I'll have better luck next fall.
Stock Market High on Trade Rumors
But as the leaves have been falling from the trees, stocks have been going the other direction. Yesterday, all of the major stock market indexes hit new record highs. I think the catalyst, again, were rumors about a potential phase 1 trade deal. Of course, it really is ridiculous now. What rallies the market is not the rumor of an actual trade deal but the rumors of a phony trade deal - a phase 1 deal which really isn't a deal at all. In fact, to the extent that anybody is even celebrating phase 1, what they really celebrating is that the trade war is over. That Donald Trump has basically surrendered without admitting that he has surrendered. In fact a lot of the talk about what the Chinese even need to get the phase 1 deal is for all of the tariffs to be removed. Not just cancelling the future tariffs, but to take away all the tariffs that are already there, which, of course would be a relief for the American consumer, who, contrary to Donald Trump's claim, they're the ones who pay the tax - not the Chinese.
Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact… Again?
But, basically, what the markets would really be celebrating, is if we went back to where we were before the trade war ever began. Of course, this is not a victory for the president if all the markets could hope for, is a return to the status quo, but again, once we get that deal - if we get that deal, it should be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact", especially since the fact is not going to live up to the height of the rumor.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/6/2019 • 47 minutes, 20 seconds
It’s Bad Monetary Policy Not a Good Economy – Ep. 511
New Highs in the Headlines
We had record high closes today in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite; the Dow Jones not quite a new record but still up better than 300 points: 301.13 to be precise. Of course, all of the headlines, and President Trump - they're going to be claiming that the reason that we had these surging stock prices is because we had a stronger than expected jobs report. We got the October nonfarm payroll that came out this morning and it was better than was expected. You had Larry Kudlow out there talking about how this is a fantastic jobs report. It basically shows how we have this great economy; the greatest economy in the history of America, and that's the reason that the stock market is making record highs, because we have this great economy.
Economic Data was a Mixed Bag
Well, first of all, the jobs report is really not that great. Sure, it was stronger than expected, but that's not why the stock market went up today. We had other economic data that came out that was weaker than expected, so it was an overall mixed bag. In fact, the Atlanta Fed came out today and downwardly revised their forecast for Q4 GDP from 1.5% down to 1.1%, and I think the New York Fed is actually below 1% in its forecast for fourth quarter GDP. So hardly the strongest economy in history, yet the markets and President Trump are certainly celebrating like the economy is strong.
Nonfarm Payroll up from an Upwardly Revised Previous Month
But let me get to the tale of the tape first in the jobs report, because we were looking for a weak number. So the bar was pretty low. The consensus was for 90,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, and one of the reasons was because of the striking GM workers, so they were going to be subtracted from the numbers. So that was already baked into the cake. We ended up getting 128,000 jobs, so nicely above those diminished expectations. But probably more significantly, they went back and upwardly revised the number they told us for the prior month, which was originally reported at +136,000. Now the government claims it was +180,000.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/2/2019 • 54 minutes, 44 seconds
Powell Admits Inflation Is Headed Much Higher – Ep. 510
The Fed Slashes Interest Rates for 3rd Time
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates today. This is the third rate cut of this cycle. We're now down to 1.5%. But of course, what everybody has to remember is a year ago, when the Fed was hiking interest rates, the forecast from the Fed was that they were going to continue to hike rates. They were supposed to have another 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2019. And, of course, a year ago, as the Fed was hiking rates, they were still shrinking their balance sheet and they were going to continue to shrink it. They were talking about auto-pilot. They were going to continue to do $50 billion/month of quantitative tightening. And they said this with a straight face. And everybody believed them.
Not a Surprise to Me
Of course, everybody except me and maybe a few other people out there in the financial media. But I was telling anybody who would listen - which was not that many people in the mainstream, but certainly the people who listen to my podcasts, that none of this was going to happen. I said that the Fed was going to have to stop hiking rates, and that they would be cutting rates in 2019, and that not only were they going to stop quantitative tightening, that they were going to have to go back to quantitative easing. And that's exactly where we are.
A Distinction without a Difference
Although, Jerome Powell went out of his way - I think the first thing that he said when he made his prepared remarks - was to reassure everybody that what the Fed was doing now, with its repo program was not quantitative easing. He drew a distinction between what the Fed was doing when it was doing QE and what it is doing now when it is not doing QE. The main distinction had to do with the maturities of the debt that the Fed was buying. He said that when they were doing QE, they were buying longer term government bonds, but that now, they're buying shorter term government bonds and so therefore it's not QE. But this is really a distinction without a difference.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/31/2019 • 47 minutes, 3 seconds
Government Is the Threat, Not Facebook – Ep. 509
I am Back!
I am back! I know a lot of people have been upset that I haven't been able to do a podcast in almost 2 weeks. The reason I've been absent… I just haven't been feeling well. I've been coughing a lot and and haven't been up for doing a podcast - I'm doing one today, though. I'm still a little bit sick… but I figure it's been long enough, so I have to talk a little bit about what's on my mind.
Dollar Index Trending Lower
First of all, there hasn't been that much activity, I guess, in the markets over this time period. The U.S. dollar has generally been weaker. It has been trending down. It hasn't really broken down yet, but it is going lower. In fact, the dollar index closed today near 97.69. so that is lower than it had been. Remember, a few weeks ago, the dollar index was above 99. So the dollar is trending lower.
Interest Rates Up - Bond Prices Down
Interest rates are actually moving higher. Bond prices are going down. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury now is at 2.26, and I think this is significant because it really shows the problems that are building in the economy because the dollar is weakening and interest rates are rising. That is going to mean higher consumer prices, it's going to mean higher borrowing costs; now of course, the Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to artificially suppress interest rates. One of the stories that I've read several times over the last couple of weeks is how the Federal Reserve is having to do more repurchase agreements; having to increase the size of the amount of Treasuries they're buying in the market. I didn't see that in today's balance sheet numbers; the balance sheet was up only about 2 billion over the prior week. But I have a feeling that the number is going to be much, much higher than that when we get it a week from today.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/25/2019 • 53 minutes, 19 seconds
Trump and Powell Follow the Same Script – Ep. 508
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Dow jumps 300 points
U.S. stocks finished out the week on a strong note; in fact we broke a 3-week losing streak. This was the first time in 4 weeks that the major averages finished higher on the week. When I recorded my podcast earlier in the week, the week was off to a rough start. But we had a turnaround. In fact, today the Dow Jones was up 319 points on the day - about a 1.2% gain. The NASDAQ was up even more; 106 points, that's 1.34%. The Russell 2000, even better, up 1.8%. The Dow Transports were the stars of the day. They were up 2.23% - 224 points. Look at stocks like Apple, rising almost 3% to a new all-time record high.
Rumors and News Driving the Market
There was a lot of news driving the market today. Initially, we got rumors of some type of Brexit deal that potentially was imminent. Of course, there have been all sorts of rumors that have never panned out regarding a Brexit deal. But this morning, there was a rumor that really was causing a lot of buying in the European markets and that spilled over into the U.S. futures, which helped the U.S. market. And of course there was a lot of brewing optimism over some kind of impending trade deal with China, although that news didn't come out until very close to the close.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Climbs to 3-Month High in October
But, earlier in the day, we got the Consumer Sentiment number for October, and the markets are already higher by the time we got this release, which comes out at 10am; the market opens at 9:30. The prior month was 93.2, and the consensus was for a slight drop in consumer sentiment to 92. After all, there are a lot of reasons for consumers to be less optimistic now than they were back then. But the consumer… surprise - ended up being more optimistic. The number came out at 96 and that sent the price of stocks much higher.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/12/2019 • 36 minutes, 34 seconds
Powell Announces the Fed Is Not Doing QE – Ep. 507
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Another Weak Day in the Equity Market
We had another weak day in the equity market, so the 4th quarter is starting off on a particularly sour note. The Dow, down 314 points today. Technically speaking, closing right near the lows: down 1.2%. NASDAQ had a much worse day, down 132 points - that's 1.67%. Russell 2000, similarly beat up: 1.7%, down 25 points. The Transports really took it on the chin. They down 1.85%. 185 points down on the Transports. The money losing stocks, the recent IPO's continue to get beat up. The real debacle du jour was Smile Direct. That one was down another 15% today: down $2 - it closed at $11.34 right off the new low of $11.20. Remember, this stock came public less than 2 weeks ago and it was $23 a share. The highest it actually traded was $21.10. Now we're down better than 50% from the IPO.
Fed: QE but not QE
But I really don't want to spend a lot of time talking about the markets today. In fact, I only want to talk about one thing, and that's the Fed and the return to Quantitative Easing . I wasn't even going to do a podcast today; Yom Kippur starts in a couple of hours so I was just going to skip it. In fact, I wasn't even going to do one tomorrow - I was probably going to wait until Thursday. But then I was watching this press conference with Jerome Powell where basically the Fed came out and said they were doing QE, except they said they weren't doing QE.
"Increasing Securities Holdings to Maintain an Appropriate Level of Reserves"
There's an old saying: "Never believe something until it's been officially denied. Jerome Powell went out of his way today in his statement and in the Q and A that followed to emphatically say that the Fed is not doing QE. This is an exact quote from Powell: "This is not QE. In no sense is this QE." Except, in every sense it's QE, because it's exactly QE. There's also an old saying," If it walks like a duck, it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it's a duck."
Well, this looks like QE, it smells like QE, it quacks like QE, it walks like it… it is QE! What is the difference between QE and what the Fed is now doing? I wish someone would really ask that question. In his prepared remarks, this is what Powell said:
“As we indicated in our March statement on balance sheet normalization, at some point, we will begin increasing our securities holdings to maintain an appropriate level of reserves,” he said. “That time is now upon us.”
Already? In March they said that "at some point"? Did anybody back then think "some point" meant "NOW"?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/9/2019 • 27 minutes, 35 seconds
Service Sector to Follow Manufacturing into Recession – Ep.506
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
The Weakest First Two Days of Any Quarter Since 2008
Before I get into what happened with today's nonfarm payroll number and the 372.68 rally in the Dow that it helped spark, I want to back and talk about what happened on Wednesday and Thursday, which were the 2 days following my Tuesday podcast, from the first day of the 4th quarter of the year. On Wednesday, the market sold off sharply, in fact at one point we were down better than 600 points on the day. We managed to close down just under 500 - 494 points. At that point, the first 2 days of the 4th quarter of 2019 were the weakest first 2 days of any quarter - not just a 4th quarter - but of any quarter going all the way back to 2008, which was the year the market imploded because of the '08 financial crisis.
Weakness in Private Sector Jobs
One of the data points that came out on Wednesday that may have been a contributing factor - but probably not - was the ADP employment number, which is an early look at the official numbers that came out today. This is just the private sector, which is certainly weaker than the government sector, and I'm going to get into that when I discuss today's numbers later in the podcast. But, the estimate was for 152,000 jobs created in the private sector and we only got 135,000. But, not only that, there was a downward revision to the prior month, from 195,000 to 157,000. So, this was additional evidence of economic weakness that was weighing on the market.
IPO's Cancelled Due to Insufficient Investor Demand
Also, again we had the follow over from what I had pointed out on my podcast not only on Tuesday, but on Friday the prior week regarding the weakness in the newly publicly traded companies - money losing companies - the fact that some of these companies had to cancel their IPO's due to insufficient investor demand. All of that was weighing on the market and helped produce that sharp decline.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Down A Lot - Not Just a Little Bit
And when we got into the market on Thursday, the market had opened initially a little bit higher. But then as soon as we got the ISM non-manufacturing number (remember, we had gotten a very weak manufacturing number and was part of the reason we had the big decline earlier in the weak) but now we got the ISM non-manufacturing number and this number was forecast to come in at 55.5. This would have been a reduction in the 56.4 that we had for August. But instead of going down a little bit, the number went down a lot - all the way down to 52.6.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/5/2019 • 49 minutes, 34 seconds
The Party Is Over. Don’t Be the Last to Leave. – Ep. 505
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
First Day of Q4 2019
Today was the first trading day of the 4th quarter of 2019. And if today's action was a harbinger of things to come, it is going to be one difficult quarter for the bulls on Wall Street. In fact, when they rang the opening bell this morning, everybody was happy, the stock market was up, the dollar was up, gold was down again. In fact, gold has had a pretty big correction since my last podcast.
When You Live in Glass White Houses…
Yesterday, gold saw a $25 decline; again, with a stronger dollar and a stronger stock market. For some reason, I think investors were a little bit more optimistic over the last few days after my last podcast Donald Trump talked about - or there were some rumors that he was thinking about maybe de-listing Chinese companies from U.S exchanges, making it illegal or something for Americans to invest in China - which I thought was a very dangerous road for the President to go down. Remember, when you live in glass White Houses, you don't want to throw stones.
Chinese Still Big U.S. Investors
The United States benefits from a lot of direct investment from overseas, particularly China. Chinese invest a lot in U.S. businesses; they're big buyers of U.S real estate, and, of course, they're still big holders of U.S. Treasuries. If the United States says, "Well, Americans can't invest in China." what happens if the Chinese return the favor? I think we have a lot more to lose than they do. I think the following day or maybe over the weekend the President kind of backtracked away from that trial balloon and they said, "No, we're not considering that." So probably that was good news and a relief for the market that that wasn't going to happen.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/2/2019 • 52 minutes, 41 seconds
Riskiest Assets Leading the Decline – Ep. 504
Check out my podcast, "What it Means to be an American", Episode 265
Earthquake Hits Puerto Rico
Last night, I was lying in bed, I wasn't asleep yet; I just finished watching television; my wife and I were still awake, and next thing we know, the house starts shaking. And it kept on shaking. I couldn't believe I was in an earthquake. This was a decent-sized earthquake - it was over 6.0 on the Richter scale. The earthquake occurred in the ocean, but not too far from Puerto Rico. I think it rattled a lot of the islands here in the Caribbean. I haven't felt an earthquake since I lived in California. To be honest, I never even considered earthquakes here in Puerto Rico. I knew about hurricanes, but I really didn't think we would be hit by an earthquake - and we did. Fortunately, it didn't do any actual damage; in fact, I don't think anything in Puerto Rico was damaged. Of course, the big risk when you get earthquakes in the ocean is tsunamis - but that didn't happen. In the meantime, I've got a tropical storm overhead as I am recording this podcast. Tropical Storm Karen has arrived in Puerto Rico later than expected. It was supposed to come this morning but it didn't get here until this afternoon, although "Karen" doesn't sound particularly menacing, and it's living up to its name. It's really just a little rain, not too much wind; so that's not bad.
Disaster in the Cryptocurrency Markets
The real disaster is not here in Puerto Rico with earthquakes and tropical storms; it's the disaster that is unfolding in the cryptocurrency markets. We are seeing some real carnage - a real bloodbath over there. I think this is just getting started, because we've finally really broken down on the Bitcoin chart, although the biggest declines today are in the alt coins. Bitcoin is down about 13% right now. But this about the high that Bitcoin is been in the last half hour. We're trading up around $8500. We did get as low as $8000; I think we maybe ticked below it briefly. That means from the nearly $14000 high that's a better than 40% drop in the price of Bitcoin from that peak, which, by any definition constitutes a bear market.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/25/2019 • 43 minutes, 57 seconds
Ep. 503: How Government Inflated the Student Loan Bubble
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
These two videos were referenced in today's podcast:
How government programs drive up college tuitions
Is a college degree worth the cost? You decide
Fed Proving Me Right
As I surmised, when I recorded my podcast on Wednesday, it seems pretty clear that the Federal Reserve has already returned to quantitative easing. And that didn't take long, because they just ended QT (quantitative tightening) and they've already begun QE. - Although, the Fed is not going to admit that that's what they're doing. Apart from proving me right, which was one of my forecasts from the very beginning, even before the Fed was talking about ending QE, I said they could never end it before they even started it.
Monetary Roach Motel
I had forecast what the Fed was going to do before they did it. And when they announced quantitative easing, not only did I say it was a mistake, but I said the Fed was checking us into a monetary roach motel from which we could never check out. It was the delusion that we could check out - the Fed was able to convince the markets that it was a temporary policy and that they would only be doing it in an emergency, then they would unwind the policy and shrink their balance sheet and the market believed them.
QE Plus Zero Interest Rates Equals Bigger Problem
I didn't believe them, and I was warning everybody that the Fed was either lying or didn't know what they were talking about or foolish, but the markets bought into this nonsense. So, clearly, if the Fed were going to go back to quantitative easing, they would basically be admitting that the policy was a failure. Because the policy was intended to be temporary, not permanent. If they have to do it again, then it proves that it wasn't temporary. Again, what I said, by doing quantitative easing in conjunction with lowering interest rates to zero, they were simply taking a debt problem and making it much bigger by encouraging even more debt. So once you load up with debt, once you encourage everybody to lever up, then you can't pull the rug out from under them.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/21/2019 • 58 minutes, 14 seconds
QE by Any Other Name Still Stinks – Ep. 502
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
No Surprises from the Fed: Quarter Point Reduction
A lot has actually happened since I recorded my last podcast on Friday. I want to start with what happened today and then work backwards. First of all the big news of the day is the Federal Reserve did exactly what the markets expected and reduced interest rates by a quarter point.
Fed: "Mid-Course Correction"?
This is the second quarter point reduction since the Fed reversed course on monetary policy and started what it once called a 'mid-course correction". The markets didn't really like that, so the Fed kind of walked that back. Although, in the press conference today, Powell was asked about the "mid-course correction" and he kind of dodged it a little bit, but still maintained the pretense that all is well in the economy. But anyway, the Fed delivered the quarter point cut #2. It is now targeting the Fed Funds Rate at between 1.75% and 2%.
Short Term Interest Rates Back Below 2%
So we now have short-term interest rates back below 2% - certainly on the way to zero, maybe even lower, we'll see. Jerome Powell was specifically asked about negative interest rates during the Q&A session following the announcement. He basically said the Fed is not really thinking about negative interest rates, or don't think they're going to be doing negative interest rates, but of course we'll see what happens when we get to zero, and the problems are not solved. The Fed may well do negative interest rates; they may well not want to let that cat out of the bag just yet.
Bullard: "Interest Rates are Too High"
At one point there was some anticipation that the Fed would do 50 basis points but by the time we actually got the announcement this morning, I don't think anybody was really looking for 50 basis points. Although, in the decision to reduce rates, Jim Bullard actually dissented and said that he wanted a 50 basis point rate cut, rather than the 25, but there were 2 other dissenters who didn't want any cuts at all.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/19/2019 • 47 minutes, 5 seconds
Gold to Decouple from Treasuries – Ep. 501
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Dow 200 Points from Record High
It was pretty quiet today in the equity markets; the Dow Jones managed to inch up 37 points, closing at 27,219 but, you know, how we're less than 200 points away from a new all-time record high in the Dow Jones.
Long on Bonds? Bad Friday 13th!
But the real action today was in the bond market. If you're suspicious on this Friday the 13th, and you were looking for bad luck, that's where you would have found it, if you were long the bond market. Now, I've been talking about this bond market bubble for a long time - it's been inflating for a long time. Whether or not it's actually popped, well, we'll have to wait a little longer to find out. But the carnage in the bond market that I mentioned on my last podcast has continued, with bonds continuing to suffer.
Biggest Single Day Decline on 10-Year Treasury
In fact, today was the biggest single day decline of the entire move. The yield on the 10-year Treasury up to 1.903%. Now, of course, it's still a very, very low yield, but when you consider that a week ago, we were as low as 1.429%. That is a huge increase, percentage-wise, in the yield on the 10-year bond, which means a big drop in prices.
Risk in Bonds if Interest Rates Go Up
I'm not sure the percentage decline; maybe 5 or 6% was the drop, which, in the stock market, that's not a big deal. Stock prices could drip 5% in a week - no big deal. But when the price of a bond drops by 5% in a week, especially a Treasury bond - people think about Treasury bonds as being risk-free - well, there's actually a lot of risk. Especially when you're buying a bond with such a low coupon. There's a lot of risk if interest rates go up, then the value of that bond is going to go down.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/14/2019 • 56 minutes, 31 seconds
By His Own Definition, Trump’s the Bonehead – Ep. 500
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Millions of Americans were Affected by the Terrorist Attack on 9/11
Today is the 18- year anniversary of the tragic events that surrounded the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon back in 2001. I do not wish to make light of the suffering of the individuals who died tragically, not only the people who lost their lives on the ground, but also the ones aboard the airplane that crashed into a field in Pennsylvania. And, of course, thousands of families were profoundly affected by those events, and they're still affected by those events today.
Loss of Liberty and Freedom
So, what I am about to say is not to minimize their suffering, but there are 300 million or so Americans who were not personally affected by those events, other than the fact that we certainly empathize with our fellow citizens who did have to endure the tragedy on a more personal level. But on a broader level, the biggest loss, historically, from those events is not just the loss of lives and the family members who lost loved ones, but all Americans who lost individual liberty and freedom.
Self-Inflicted Loss
That is the real tragedy, historic tragedy of 9/11. The tremendous loss of individual liberty and freedom. America today is a far less free society than it was prior to those attacks 18 years ago. And that means that the terrorists won. They didn't win based on the damage that they inflicted. They won based on the damage that we inflicted on ourselves. The self-inflicted wounds are much greater on a national scale than the terrorists' direct acts.
And it's not just the 300 million Americans who are alive today. It's all the Americans yet to be born who are going to be born into a society that is far less free than America would have been but for these attacks.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/12/2019 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 36 seconds
Trump Puffs up His Presidency like His Steaks – Ep. 499
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
The Numbers Really Look Bad in Private Payrolls
Where the numbers really start to get bad is when you look at the private payrolls. There, they were expecting 150,000 private sector jobs created. The private sector jobs are far more important than the government jobs. The private sector jobs are self-sustaining. The tax payers are on the hook for paying the salaries of the government workers and the private sector employees, by and large are actually productive. They're making our lives better.
Manufacturing is Very Weak
They were looking for 150,000 private sector jobs; we got just 96,000 jobs. AND, they revised last month's private payrolls down from 148,000 to 131,000. Manufacturing - very weak: they were looking for 8,000 jobs - instead, we added just 3,000 manufacturing jobs in August and last month, July, they originally said that we created 16,000 manufacturing jobs and we only created 4,000 manufacturing jobs.
34,000 Jobs Created in Category "Government"
Now if you actually look at the breakdown of all the jobs that were created, 34,000 jobs were created in the category of "government". So, of all the different job categories, the one that added the most was government - 34,000 jobs. I think about 20,000 of these people were temporary hires associated with the 2020 Census. Where's the money coming from to pay for these government jobs? It's being borrowed. We're borrowing more money to hire more government workers. Of course, ultimately the taxpayers are on the hook for paying all these salaries, for paying interest on the money borrowed, to pay all these salaries.
Slowest Job Growth in Private Sector Creation in 8 Years
In fact, if you look at the private sector job creation so far in the Trump Presidency, this year, 2019, is on track to have the slowest growth in private sector job creation in 8 years. Trump is out there talking about how this is the greatest economy ever - he's the greatest jobs president ever. We've got the manufacturing sector, the weakest it's been in 10 years, we have the slowest growth in private sector payrolls in 8 years - this is a disaster!Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/7/2019 • 49 minutes, 44 seconds
U.S. Manufacturing Weakest in 10 Years – Ep. 498
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Silver DID Join Gold's Party
Back in mid-July I titled my podcast, "Is Silver Finally Joining Gold's Party?". Well, I think we know the answer to that question. Since I recorded that podcast about a month and a half ago, the price of silver is up another 15%. In fact, it's up better than 30% since the end of May. Silver having a sterling performance today. As I am recording this podcast, it's about an hour after the close of the U.S. market, we're up almost 90 cents an ounce. We're at 19.22.
Gold Still Meeting Resistance at $1,550
Gold, not quite having as strong a day as silver; gold isn't making a new high. It's up $19.50 on the day: $1548. Still having some problems with the $1550 resistance area. GLD, the exchange-traded ETF did make a new high for this move, but the spot market did not register a new high - but I think that's just a matter of days - if not hours - before that happens.
Silver is Leading the Charge
Because silver is leading the charge. It's leading gold higher; pretty much the way I said. A week ago, I titled my podcast, "Hi Ho Silver, Away" and that prompted a number of people to comment that somehow I had just capped the silver rally by getting too optimistic on silver. Well, that was a week ago. We just hit $18.00, we're now over $19.00, and I said on that podcast, I thought we would have a pretty quick move up to about $20, and once we take out $20, I think this thing could really, really take off.
Overdue Move Down in the Dollar
What is going to be the catalyst, I think, for a much bigger move up in both gold and silver is going to be the long overdue move down in the dollar. Paradoxically, when the dollar starts its decline, it is even possible that gold and silver take a bit of a breather, or maybe pull back a little bit, in terms of dollars, but pull back even more in terms of other currencies. Remember, as strong as gold has been in dollars, it has been even stronger in other currencies.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/4/2019 • 45 minutes, 2 seconds
Andrew Yang Debunked: Free Stuff Is Not Freedom – Ep. 497
Don’t miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Let's Debunk Andy Yang's Platform
I decided to take a little time out on my Labor Day to record a podcast debunking Democratic Presidential Candidate Andrew Yang. I've been getting a lot of emails about Yang; especially since he did the Joe Rogan Podcast about six months ago. He said a lot of things that certain people find appealing, so I've been asked to comment on him and I've seen other notes about Andy Yang and I wanted to talk about him because, number one, he is rising in the polls. He's now in sixth place among the Democratic candidates; he's polling at about 3% ant that puts him ahead of established politicians like Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, so he's gaining in popularity and I think the trend is going to continue.
Yang Rising in the Polls
The next Democratic Debate is coming up in about a week and a half and they're no longer going to have two debates; they've narrowed it down to just ten candidates and Andy Yang is one of those 10. I think as there are fewer candidates in the race, Yang is going to get more and more attention from the media and I think he is going to rise in the polls.
Attractive Among a Bunch of Democratic Socialists
To me, he is like the Bernie Sanders of this campaign. Sanders, and "Feeling the Bern"… he was popular in the 2016 campaign, mainly because he was the only alternative to Hillary Clinton, who was extremely unpopular. So, given that matchup and there was only two choices, it made it very easy for Sanders to gain a lot of support. He's having a much harder time galvanizing that support this time because people have a lot of alternatives. If you want a Democratic Socialist, there's a bunch of them to choose from.
Clearly a Smart Guy… But
But a guy like like Andy Yang, a younger guy, and clearly a smart guy. I had not watched his appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience until just yesterday. I decided to watch it, and that's the motivation for doing this podcast. Once I heard him talk about his ideas, I spent a lot of time on his website looking at a lot of things he didn't discuss with Joe Rogan. One thing is certainly clear to me: he's a smart guy. Clearly, if you gave an IQ test to all of the Democratic candidates, Yang would win.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/2/2019 • 1 hour, 10 minutes, 26 seconds
The Coming Financial Hurricane Will Be a Cat 5 – Ep. 496
Recorded August 30, 2019
Don't miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Waiting for Hurricane Dorian
When I recorded my last podcast on Tuesday evening, we were getting ready for Hurricane Dorian, which was supposed to pass by the south coast 0f Puerto Rico on Wednesday. But when I woke up on Wednesday morning, the meteorologists had the hurricane pretty much coming right over my house. It had changed course and had moved north, and it was supposed to come right through Puerto Rico, rather than just go by it to the South. But then the hurricane kept moving north, and it ended up missing Puerto Rico completely. We were here, the kids were home from school, everybody was battened down waiting for what at that time was maybe a strong tropical storm… maybe a category 1 hurricane.
Puerto Rico Spared from Hurricane
But we didn't even get a rain drop. Not even a gust of wind, as the hurricane just missed Puerto Rico to the north. I think it did go by the U.S. and British Virgin Islands - didn't really do much damage, there, because the store hadn't intensified but Puerto Rico's gain will be Florida's loss. The storm did not go over Puerto Rico, and initially it was supposed to go over the Dominican Republic, and the mountains there, it's a much bigger island, and it would have really beaten up the storm, but because the storm was really uninterrupted, and it has been over water the entire time, now it looks like it will be a category 4 when it hits somewhere along the Florida coast. It looks like a pretty powerful storm.
Broken Window Theory
You're going to hear, as is always the case, economists are going to be saying, "Oh, well, this is good for GDP." Whenever there's a hurricane, people say, "Oh, look! We have to spend all this money repairing and rebuilding everything that was destroyed." But that is not good for the economy. If you haven't heard the "Broken Window Theory", Henry Hazlitt does a very good job of explaining that and refuting the Keynesian idea that disasters are somehow good for the economy.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/31/2019 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 40 seconds
Hi Ho Silver, Away – Ep. 495
Recorded August 27, 2019
Real Significant Action in the Market: Gold and Silver
The real significant action today was in the gold & silver market. I wanted to mention today that on Friday, the U.S . dollar sold and then today we're back at 98. So the dollar is not weakening against other foreign currencies. In fact, most people are still talking about the strong dollar. Even Donald Trump talks about the fact that we have a strong dollar. Now, Trump is bothered by the fact that we have a strong dollar, and he wishes it wasn't as strong, but he keeps talking about the strong dollar and everybody acknowledges that the dollar is strong.
Silver is a Great Buy
The problem is: the dollar is not strong. The price of gold going up shows you that the dollar is not strong. Gold was up $16 an ounce: we closed at $1542.50. This is the highest close in over 6 years for the price of gold; but the real star today was silver. Silver was up 53 cents - $18.17. It's been a while now since silver was above $18. If you have been listening to my podcasts, you know that I have been pounding the table on silver. I've been telling people that silver is the key; it is really cheap relative to gold. In fact, it was better than 90:1. You needed more than 90 ounces of silver to buy a single ounce of gold. That was an all-time record low for the price of silver. Now we're at 85. The ratio has moved back in silver's favor, but you still need 85 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. That is historically extremely cheap. In fact, the only time it was cheaper was when it was 90. So it's still a great buy.
Cash in some Gold to buy Silver
I have been telling people, even at SchiffGold - we have actually been calling clients who we know own gold and have them sell us back their gold and buy silver, because you can get so much silver for your gold right now that it is a real bargain. Silver has never been this cheap, and so if you have gold and don't have any silver, it makes sense to buy some silver with your gold. Even after today's move, I would still say that that trade makes sense.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/28/2019 • 57 minutes, 42 seconds
Trump Loses It on Twitter – Ep. 494
Recorded August 23, 2019
A Bad Day for Everybody Except the Democratic Candidates
If you are one of the Democrats running for President, today was a pretty good day for you. But it was a bad day for just about everybody else; I guess other than gold investors, which I clearly am, but I'm also an American and I hate to see bad things happening to my country, even though I know bad things are going to happen. I would just rather be among those who profit from these events than suffer additional monetary loss in addition to the losses you endure as an American citizen as a result of the ensuing chaos and loss of liberties.
President Trump Lost It on Twitter
Today, President Trump really kind of lost it. On Twitter. Real time. Maybe what Trump needs is somebody to be his official Twitter filter. Maybe there should be a policy where when Trump wants to tweet, there is like a one or two hour cooling off period where the tweets get reviewed, maybe edited, maybe someone gets to talk a little sense into him before he tweets. But today's tweet storm probably really indicates that the White House, I think, is in disarray. I think the President realizes that the air is coming out of this big, fat, ugly bubble. That he's not going to get out of Dodge.
CBO Revised Up Budget Deficit Estimate Again
He's trying to pretend that the economy is in great shape, yet we're hearing rumors that we need a payroll tax cut, we need stimulus for the economy. Why would you stimulate an economy that's doing great? If we have the greatest economy in the history of America, why does it need even more fiscal stimulus? After all, we already have the most fiscal stimulus ever. We have the largest budget deficits in history. In fact the Congressional Budget Office this week came out and revised up again their estimates for the deficit.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/24/2019 • 50 minutes, 19 seconds
Media Flips Narrative as Recession Risk Rises – Ep. 493
Recorded August 20, 2019
The Day the Yield Curve Inverted
I am finally back in the United States - well, in Puerto Rico, technically is part of the United States, it's a territory - after my extended trip through Italy. I recorded that one podcast, and on the very next day, we had probably the most volatile day in memory. What happened that morning was that we got some weak economic data that came out of China and then we got some more weak economic data that came out of Germany and that immediately caused yields to drop around the world. In the United States, for the first time, the yields on the 10-year treasury dipped below the Fed funds rate. So the entire yield curve, out to 10 years was inverted. In fact, the 30 year yield hit a new low for this whole "quantitative easing - zero percent interest rate" cycle. The 10-year did not quite do that yet, but the 30-year did, and as soon as this happened, as soon as the curve inverted, I think it triggered a lot of sell programs in the stock market.
The Media was Waiting to Flip the Narrative
Stocks got clobbered, in fact, by the end of the day the Dow Jones was down 800 points; one of the worst point drops in Dow Jones history - not one of the worst percentage drops, but 800 points is a lot of points. And of course, as soon as this happened, the media began to cover the possibility of a recession to a much greater degree than they had in the past. If you remember, I said that this was coming. I said that I thought that maybe the media was waiting to flip the narrative on Trump, which is exactly what they've done.
Fake News?
All of a sudden, a media which was pretty much buying the booming economy narrative now is questioning whether the economy is actually strong. In fact, now you have Donald Trump accusing the media of being involved in some kind of conspiracy to make the economy look bad. In other words, a lot of the data that's been coming out indicating that the economy is weak, that it is slowing, that this is just Fake News.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/21/2019 • 52 minutes, 48 seconds
Gold Traders Still Don’t Understand the Rally – Ep. 492
Catch Peter on Simon Black's podcast, "Sovereign Man" recorded yesterday in Italy.
https://www.sovereignman.com/category/podcast/
Catch Me on Sovereign Man
There's been a lot of action over the last couple of days in the U.S. stock market. In fact, the market just closed a few minutes ago, as I am recording. It is now after 10pm in the evening here in Italy. If you don't already know by now, I am out here in Italy with my son, and that's why I'm not recording as many podcasts as I normally would. Although, I did record a podcast with my friend Simon Black, of Sovereign Man. I'm actually staying with Simon and some other guests of his for a few days in Umbria. We leave tomorrow for Florence, then Venice and then home. So I recorded a podcast with Simon yesterday. We talked for about an hour. So if you want more material, just go ahead and have a listen to that. You'll get over another hour discussion.
Check out my Debate with Art Laffer on YouTube
Also, I put up the YouTube video this morning that I meant to put up a couple of weeks ago. I uploaded Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/14/2019 • 42 minutes, 5 seconds
The U.S. Economy Was Stronger Without Economic Advisors – Ep. 491
Recorded August 6, 2019
Trade War: New Tariffs and Accusation of Currency Manipulation
Yesterday was the worst day of the year for the Dow Jones. At one point, we were down about 950-odd points. I think we closed down under 800; 767 points. But it was a follow-though from the weakness that we had on Friday and the news, too, that we had on Friday about the escalation of the trade war, where Donald Trump announced the imposition of new tariffs on China.
Normal Movements in a Currency Market
But what happened overnight in China was the yuan went below 7:1 against the dollar. This is the first time it has been that low since China started to allow its currency to appreciate against the dollar. It had been appreciating… now 7 is not that much weaker than it was when Donald Trump became President. The Chinese yuan is only down 2-3% since Trump took office. That's not a whole lot, when it comes to a currency. Everybody is up in arms; now Trump is upset that the Chinese are weakening their currency, when the currency has not weakened very much. In fact, the U.S. dollar is down about 2 or 3% against the Swiss franc since Trump became President. So what's the big deal? Switzerland isn't accusing the United States of manipulating its currency, just because the currency dropped a few percent. These are normal movements in a currency market.
Dow Trading Higher after China Blinks?
But the minute the yuan dropped below 7:1, everybody was saying, "Currency War!" and "Who knows how much further the yuan is going to drop?" And so that sparked a lot of selling in the Chinese market. And so the U.S. market went down… I think the futures went down maybe about 300 Dow points or so before we opened. But then, as soon as we opened, we sold off hard and we did have a little bit of a rally into the close, so we closed off the lows, but as soon as the U.S. stock market closed, the futures sold off again. I think at one point last night, the Dow was off another 4-500 points before reversing on the Chinese yuan having a fix, I think, that was a little bit higher than the markets were worried about, so that caused the traders to breathe a little sigh of relief that the yuan didn't fall again. So that sparked a rally.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/6/2019 • 37 minutes, 21 seconds
Jobs Hype Won’t Work Much Longer – Ep. 490
Recorded August 2, 2019
July NonFarm Payroll Report: Great? Not so Great
This morning we got the release of the July NonFarm payroll report, and the general consensus among the analysts seem to be that it was s strong report, a solid report. I saw Larry Kudlow this morning on Fox Business talking about another "solid performance" in job creation. But once again, once you look beneath the surface, and you don't have to look too deep, this is not a good report.
The Bar Was Set Pretty Low
First of all, the bar was set pretty low. The consensus was 151,000 jobs. That's not a lot of jobs, so it's not that hard to beat it, and we did. We got 164,000 jobs. But the reason we beat it was because we created more government jobs than the market expected. For private payrolls, the consensus was 160,000 jobs and we only created 148,000 jobs. So we created 12,000 fewer private sector jobs than had been expected and we made up the difference by creating government jobs, whether they are for the Federal government or state government.
Public Sector Jobs vs Private Sector Jobs
But there's a very big difference between private sector jobs and public sector jobs, in that the taxpayer isn't on the hook to pay the salaries of the private sector workers. They're working in companies that are generating profits, so the salaries are paid for by the profits that the businesses generate.
The Government Does Not Generate Profits
The government doesn't generate any profit. It just has to suck up tax revenue; we have to pay for these. So it's not a good thing that government gets more bloated and hires more people. Especially since a lot of government bureaucrats tend to complicate things. They make everybody less efficient. If we're hiring more regulators to slow down the economy and get in everybody's way, that's not a good thing. I'd rather have a lean, mean government. Of course, that's not going to happen.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/3/2019 • 55 minutes, 39 seconds
Fed Trumped by Tariff Card – Ep. 489
Recorded August 1, 2019
Trifecta Podcasts this Week
I hadn't planned on recording a podcast today; I did one yesterday and I figured I'd wait until Friday, get the … payroll numbers and finish up the week with a Friday podcast. But so much action in the markets today, that I just couldn't resist. I knew there would be a lot of people who would be excited to get a podcast today, so we're going to have a trifecta - we're going to have three days in a row of podcasts.
Nobody on CNBC saw the Rate Cut Coming… But I Did
Before I even get into a lot of the market action today, I want to talk a little bit about what I heard on CNBC this morning. They're still talking about the rate cut that we got yesterday and the host said, "Six months ago, nobody could have possible predicted… nobody would have believed that we'd be here today and the Fed would be cutting rates. And nobody could have possibly believed that the Fed would be ending the quantitative tightening program, because it's now over!" So, according to CNBC, nobody could have possibly predicted this, yet it happened anyway. Wait a minute: what about me? I predicted it. I said it was going to happen. I didn't say it on CNBC because they won't let me on, but I said it on my podcast. I even said it on their competitor network, Fox Business. Maybe if they watched Fox Business they would've known about this.
I Predicted, Live, That December Hike Would the Last Hike
So, really, what they meant is nobody on CNBC saw it coming. None of their anchors, none of their regular guests saw an end to quantitative tightening. None of them saw the rate cut. But I did. Not only did I predict that the Fed would cut rates, I predicted, live, that the December hike was the last hike. and that the very next move by the Fed would be a cut. And that is exactly what they did.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/2/2019 • 43 minutes, 5 seconds
Rate Cut First Step on the Road to Zero – Ep. 488
I Bet an Ounce of Gold that Fed would Cut Rates
Today I officially won an ounce of gold! I am referencing a bet that I made back in January of this year. During a panel discussion, I said that I though that the Fed was more likely to cut rates in 2019, than hike them. I was the only person on the panel who believed that. Everybody else thought that the Fed would be raising rates, which pretty much was the conventional wisdom in early January.
Check out My Forecasts in December and January on YouTube
So today, the Fed cut rates, which is what I have been saying they would do. In fact, not only did I put up a small YouTube video of that bet, as well as a video of the entire panel on my YouTube channel. But I also cut a minute or so segment from my interview on the Monday in December 2018 the week the Fed raised rates, 2 days later on a Wednesday. That was the final hike where the Fed went from 2% to 2.25%, to 2.25% to 2.5%.
Fed Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points
I was interviewed by Liz Claman- by the way I will be on Liz Claman's show tomorrow - they've renamed the show it is the Claman Countdown. But when I was on Liz' show back in December I made the forecast then: If the Fed raised rates in December that week, which, I thought they would, (everybody believed they would - they wouldn't want to disappoint the markets) I said that it would be the last hike, and that the very next move that the Fed would make would be to cut rates. And that is exactly what they did today. They cut rates by 25 basis points.
December's Rate Hike Erased
So they basically took away the last rate hike and the rate is now where it was prior to the December rate hike. Now, I believe that cutting rates was a mistake. I think the Fed should have already raised rates by more than they have. Not because the U.S. economy is in great shape, because it's in lousy shape. It is a gigantic bubble.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/1/2019 • 50 minutes, 5 seconds
Peter Schiff Challenge: It’s Inflation, NOT Deflation
Two Camps: Inflation vs Deflation
I did the first live stream a couple of weeks ago; that was on bitcoin. I got a lot of feedback on that one and a lot of people were coming up with potential topics for the next one. I think the most common request was for inflation or deflation: which one is it going to be? Because there are a lot of people out there who see the world similar to the way I do, as far as the problems that are confronting the U.S. economy in particular but the global economy, but everybody seems to fall into two camps as to how it is all going to go down; whether it is deflation that is coming - we should prepare for that, or whether it is inflation that's coming and you should prepare for that. Now I am an inflationist. I am in that camp. Other people in that camp may be, like Jim Rickards or Jimmy Rogers or Marc Faber - there are a number of people who would be in the inflation camp. Deflation would be guys like Robert Prechter, Harry Dent, there are a number of guys that are looking for deflation.
Defining Terms
Now before I really get into it, I want to talk a little bit about the terms, so we know what we're talking about. Let's define the terms. What is inflation? What is deflation? The actual definition of inflation, the actual meaning of the word, is an expansion of the money supply.
What does "Inflate" Really Mean?
That's what inflation is; it's not about prices. If you think of the word, "inflate" - what does inflate mean? It means to expand. You inflate a balloon; when you inflate a balloon, it expands. Prices don't expand - they go up, they go down; they don't expand. What expands? Money supply. When the government creates money, the money supply expands, like a balloon. It blows up. So that's what inflation is, it is an expansion of the money supply.
What is Deflation?
Deflation is the opposite; it is a contraction of the money supply. Now when you inflate the money supply-you create more money - you have more money bidding up prices. So inflation will result in prices going up. But prices going up is not the inflation they are the consequence of inflation.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Participate in my next YouTube Live Challenge next Monday, July 29, 9pm EDT
The Topic: It’s Inflation, NOT Deflation
What is Really Happening to Corporate Profits?
Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rose to all-time record highs today; nominal highs, of course. The Dow Jones didn't quite make it to a new high, it did close better than 50 points higher - 27,192.45, but probably the most interesting thing about the record high, is what's actually happening to corporate profits. I'm talking about operating profits, which are profits before you subtract interest and taxes. I'm looking at some new statistics that came out today. There were some revisions that came out from the government; some of them on the GDP, which I will get to a bit later in the podcast.
Corporate Operating Profits Moved Sideways Since 2014
Just looking at corporate operating profits, it turns out that operating profits actually peaked in the third quarter of 2014. That is while Obama was still President, a few years before Trump was President. So corporate profits - operating profits peaked in Q3 of 2014. And they basically have been going sideways ever since, although they have been dipping recently. If you take a look at the last quarter, operating profits are now the lowest they've been since 2011.
Profits Have Gone up - but Not Operating Profits
Now, the Dow Jones finished 2011 at about 12,000 - 12,200, I think was the end print. Well, we've more than doubled since then, but operating profits haven't gone anywhere. How are you doubling stock values when the profits are staying the same? Now, of course it's not the profits - profits have gone up - but not operating profits. But operating profits are really more important if you want to look at what's going on in the companies in these averages. Operating profits is how much money the companies make from operating their businesses.
Tax Cuts Boosted the Stock Market
So, actual profits have risen even though operating profits have not. Why is that? One: we got the big tax cuts. Corporate tax rates went way down so that enabled after tax earnings to rise. So that provided a boost to the U.S. stock market. But these corporate tax cuts are temporary. They are not permanent; corporate taxes are going to be raised. Especially if I'm right about Trump being a 1-termer; the Democrat who succeeds Trump is going to raise corporate taxes.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/27/2019 • 56 minutes, 19 seconds
Trump Buries Tea Party He Once Praised – Ep. 486
Participate in my next YouTube Live Challenge next Monday, July 29, 9pm EDT
The Topic: It's Inflation, NOT Deflation
Not to Praise the Tea Party but to Bury It
President Trump originally won the Republican nomination by appealing largely to what used to be the Tea Party. A lot of Tea Party Republicans ended up embracing Donald Trump; in fact I think a lot of the support that might have otherwise gone to Rand Paul (a Tea Party favorite who went to Washington in 2010 as part of the Tea Party movement); a lot of his thunder was stolen by Trump, who appealed a lot to Tea Party Republicans.
Even Tea Party Corpse Seems to Approve of its Demise
When Trump went to Washington, he wasn't exactly praising the Tea Party, but few people expected that he went to Washington to bury it, either. But that's just exactly what he just did by agreeing to this budget deal with the Democrats. The Tea Party is dead! President Trump just put the final nail into the coffin, lowered it in the ground and covered it in dirt. The irony is, nobody seems happier about this than the corpse itself! The Tea Party Republicans are not up in arms against the Commander-in-Chief. Everybody still loves Donald Trump.
Where is Rick Santelli?
Even the father of the Tea Party, Rick Santelli, (he is credited for getting it all going) where's Rick? Where are his tears, where's the eulogy as his child is being buried? Again, no criticism, everybody thinks Trump is great… As I said, I was back at Freedom Fest, which they should have just re-named "Trump Fest".
Continuation of Policies Once Criticized by Candidate Trump
Donald Trump is simply continuing all of the policies that he once criticized in order to become President. When he was running for the Republican nomination, he was extremely critical of the big deficits under Obama. He was even critical of the big deficits under Bush. That was one of the things I liked about Trump. He was criticizing big spenders of both parties. He was supposed to be different. He was rising above politics. He was going to drain the swamp. And draining the swamp meant putting an end to the deficits.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/24/2019 • 49 minutes, 11 seconds
Expect More Inflation but Don’t Expect the Fed to Fight It – Ep. 485
A Podcast from Freedom Fest in Las Vegas
I'm still here in Last Vegas at Freedom Fest, but I wanted to take some time out to come up to my hotel room here and record a short podcast - otherwise I'd have to wait until Tuesday. There's been a lot of stuff that's happened over the last few days, so I definitely wanted to record something; the quality might not be up to snuff. But I figured I'd talk a little bit about what's been going on in the market.
The Action Was in the Metals Markets
Really, the stock markets - not much action. All the major markets finished the day and the week lower; bond prices a bit higher. The real action, though, was in the metals markets. You wouldn't really know it to look at the price of gold, which was only up maybe about a dollar or two on the week, although we did have a big $20 rise yesterday, followed by a $20 drop today. I'll get into why that happened in a minute.
Strength in Silver
But the real action was in silver, which finished the week better than up 90 cents, I believe. So, a very strong week for silver - even on days when gold was down, silver was up. In fact, even this morning, silver was up for a while while gold was down. I titled my last podcast, "Is Silver Finally Joining Gold’s Party?" and, as of now, it really looks like the answer to that question is yes. We've see a lot of strength in silver.
Clarida Shakes Markets with Rate Cut Comments
In fact, we had the biggest two-day gain, going back several years, in the price of silver. The big jump that we has yesterday really was set into motion by some Fed comments, although that probably was just a catalyst; it probably would have moved up anyway. But in particular, we had Clarida came out and he said that the Fed should not wait for the data to turn before cutting rates. Meaning that, "We should cut rates, anyway, even if we don't get negative data; even if it doesn't look like the economy is going into recession, we should just preemptively cut rates."Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/20/2019 • 21 minutes, 48 seconds
Is Silver Finally Joining Gold’s Party? – Ep. 484
See Peter at the Las Vegas Freedom Fest – July 17-20
https://www.freedomfest.com/
Save $50 using promo code SCHIFF
93 Ounces of Silver for One Ounce of Gold
I think the most interesting development today in the market was in the metals market. I've been talking on the podcast for some time about the spread between gold and silver, and the fact that silver has never been this cheap, in terms of gold. The spread got to almost 93:1, where you can buy 93 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold - which is incredibly cheap.
Some Silver Stocks up 10% or More on the Day
It's a great time to be buying silver, and I've really been pounding the table on people buying silver. I recommended it again last night last night on my live YouTube event, I recommended it to my Managed Account clients on our last webinar, encouraging people to contact their brokers and maybe buy more silver stocks. In fact we had silver stocks today; some stocks up 10% or more on the day. Very, very significant jump up in the price of silver stocks, even thought the price of silver itself did not have that big a move. It was only up 19 cents.
Silver Up as Price of Gold Fell
But the significance of the move is that gold was down $8. So not only did silver have a relatively large move, although not large enough to normally cause silver stock to rise by 10%, but what was significant about it was that it rose as the price of gold was falling. This could signal - and it was looking to me technically that we saw some indications of this last week (I added to my own silver stocks last week - but it looked to me like this trend was about to change. We're still above 90:1. We're close to getting back to 90:1 even. But this is still an incredibly good opportunity to buy physical silver; to buy silver oriented stocks. But what I think this is showing me is that the bull market in gold is getting ready to kick into a higher gear.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/17/2019 • 42 minutes, 6 seconds
Peter Schiff’s Bitcoin Challenge Live Stream
First Live YouTube Event
Welcome to the Peter Schiff Bitcoin Challenge. First of all, I have to make a confession. I really was not familiar with YouTube live streaming and live chatting, and so the way I thought about this in my head; I thought that people were going to be able to talk. Like a Skype group conversation. People would be able to actually engage me and make their case in their own voice, and to be able to have a little back and forth.
Post a Cogent Argument
I didn't realize that the way I had to do this was with a chat, where people who want to make a point have to do it by chat. So I'm going to try my best. Hopefully, this format can work. There are so many chats going by, it is hard to keep track of them. But I want to see if people can put together a cogent, concise argument. Think of it like you're composing a tweet. I can try to address each point, and try to take in what you're trying to tell me as to why I'm wrong about Bitcoin, and why I should actually be embracing it as digital gold.
Don't Forget to Subscribe to My Podcasts
So, what I'm going to try to do is to see the best points that are being made on this chat, then read it out loud, and then address it, make a statement and the person who authored that particular text listens to what I have to say, if they want to do a follow up or something, they can do that, and hopefully I will see that follow up. I'm doing this chat in my home studio in Connecticut. I'm in the studio where I normally do my video blogs, so if you're new to this channel, you should subscribe it. Two or three times a week a do these video blogs (podcasts) where I talk about all sorts of things that are relevant to people who buy Bitcoin.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/16/2019 • 3 hours, 5 minutes, 34 seconds
This Time Rate Cuts Will Backfire – Ep. 483
Tune in to my first live YouTube event Monday, July 15, 9pm Eastern time U.S.
Call in and convince me that I’m wrong on bitcoin!
DJIA Record High Today
Dow Jones set a record high today, closing above 27,000 for the first time ever. We added 227.88 points on the day. We closed at 27,088.08. The record high, 27,088.45 set just before the close. You know, we added to yesterday's gains, the S&P 500 was also up again - not taking out the record that was set yesterday, but we did, for the second day in a row managed to trade above the 3000 mark, although we have yet to close above it - ever so close today: 2999.91. But a very small percentage gain for the S&P, not even a quarter of 1%.
Russell 2000 Down .5%
Broader market was weaker. The NASDAQ was actually down slightly - 6.5 points. The weakest index being the Russell 2000, down almost a half of a percent. It was lower during the day. Again, the Russell 2000 is the index that is most sensitive to the domestic economy. I've pointed out on this podcast many times that it is the index that is the weakest, and is not even close to making a new high. And I don't believe it will. I think the broader market is going to roll over, and the small caps are going to lead the way.
Traders Weren't Paying Attention to Bond Market
In fact, if the traders were paying attention to what was going on in the bond market, we probably would have seen a bigger selloff today. I think we still have some euphoria left over from the two-day "Dove Fest" where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was up on Capitol Hill basically green-lighting the July rate cut, which is coming up in a couple of weeks. Remember, when we got that better than expected nonfarm payroll report, the odds of a rate cut in July went down from about 100% to maybe 91%, and the odds really came down for the probability of a 50 basis points cut. So it was pretty much 91%, I think, 25 basis points, and that was it.
Odds of Rate Cut in July Back up to 100%
But after Powell released his prepared remarks, before he even made it up to Capitol Hill - just merely when the markets got a look at his prepared testimony, the odds of a rate cut in July immediately went back up to 100%, and, in fact the odds of a 50 basis point cut went back up to 20%.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/12/2019 • 1 hour, 1 minute
Moral Hazard and Unintended Consequences – Ep. 482
Tune in to my first live YouTube event Monday, July 15, 9pm Eastern time U.S.
Call in and convince me that I'm wrong on bitcoin!
More Market News after Powell's Congressional Testimony
The markets have been pretty quiet over the last couple of days, so I really don't feel like spending a lot of time on today's podcast talking about the markets. I probably will have more to say, maybe on Thursday when I'll probably do another podcast because Jerome Powell is making his way up to Capitol Hill tomorrow and Thursday to testify before the House and the Senate. My guess is that some of his comments may move the markets; the currency markets, the gold market, maybe even the stock market. I'll probably have more market-oriented commentary to give you on Thursday.
Laffer Curve for Dummies
But there are a few things on my mind, which is why I wanted to take some time today and record this podcast. One has to do with Art Laffer. Of course, Art Laffer gained fame back in the Reagan era. He came up with the "Laffer Curve" that he supposedly sketched out on a napkin one day and showed it to Ronald Reagan. The Laffer Curve basically says that when you reduce taxes, or lower marginal tax rates, you actually end up collecting higher tax revenues because you incentivize people to work more, they earn more, and then they pay more taxes even if they are paying taxes at a lower rate. Obviously, the Laffer Curve bends at some point, because if taxes are zero, you collect no revenue and if taxes are 100%, you also collect no revenue. Because if you're going to tax somebody 100% of their income, they're not going to work at all. Nobody is a complete idiot - they're not going to work for nothing. So at a 100% tax rate and a 0% percent tax rate the government collects exactly zero taxes. So somewhere along that curve is an optimal point where you would have the tax rate that generates the most amount of revenue.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/10/2019 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 21 seconds
Holiday Markets Overreact to Jobs Report – Ep. 481
See Peter at the Las Vegas Freedom Fest – July 17-20
https://www.freedomfest.com/
Save $50 using promo code SCHIFF
Markets Up on Low Volume
A lot of people on Wall Street probably took today off; after all yesterday was the Fourth of July, the market was closed. On Wednesday they closed the markets early in preparation for the July Fourth holiday. So when you have a Friday where the markets are open, but you have a Thursday when they're closed… most people probably left for the Hamptons on Wednesday afternoon, and so were not in their offices or down at the stock market when we released the nonfarm payroll numbers today.
ADP Disappointing Number Teed Up Low Expectations
The June number, highly anticipated, as always, especially with a rate cut on deck now by the Fed. Most of the people who were probably handicapping the jobs number thought that it would probably come out weaker than expected. After all, most of the data we've been getting has been weaker than expected. In particular, the jobs numbers, including the ADP report that came out on Wednesday, on that holiday-shortened trading session. We got a disappointing number. The consensus for private-sector employment for ADP was 140,000, and we ended up with 102,000. So we had a significant miss in the ADP numbers.
Back-to-Back Declines in Small Business Jobs
But also, look at the employment components of some of the other numbers that also came out weak on Wednesday, like the ISM non-manufacturing index. It printed 55.1 versus an estimate of 55.8. The employment component of that index was notably weak, especially for small businesses which had major reduction in jobs, no only in this month but the previous month. In fact, I read a tweet by Dave Rosenberg who pointed out that he hasn't seen back-to-back monthly declines like this since February/March of 2008. That was the year of the Financial Crisis. He basically said that small business job growth is the weakest it's been in over 9 years.
Bigger Decline in Factory Orders
Now, small business job growth, that is the heart of the job market. That's where most of the jobs are created. So, if you look at a lot of the other data that has been coming out that might reflect on employment, you might have thought that there might have been a weak number. Look at the factory orders number that also came out on Wednesday. They were looking for a drop of .5% in factory orders, and instead, the orders dropped by .7%. So a bigger decline.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/6/2019 • 47 minutes, 46 seconds
Monday’s Gold Drop Flushed out Weak Longs – Ep. 480
Recorded July 2, 2019
See Peter at the Las Vegas Freedom Fest – July 17-20
https://www.freedomfest.com/
Save $50 using code SCHIFF
Markets Worried About Slowing Domestic Economy
If you just looked at the U.S. stock market averages, you would conclude that not much happened today, but you would be wrong. Even though the S&P and the Dow and the NASDAQ were only up about a quarter of a percent, or maybe .3% - pretty small days. Although, as has been typical recently the Russell 2000 was down .6% and the Dow Transports down .8%. So the market, contrary to all the hoopla that you hear about how great the U.S. economy is, the markets are more worried about the slowing domestic economy than they are the global economy.
Strongest Economy in U.S. History?
In fact, the Cheerleader-In-Chief, for how strong the U.S. economy is, of course, is Donald Trump. He is constantly up there tweeting about how strong the U.S economy is. In fact, today, he proclaims that we currently have the strongest U.S. economy in history. Now, I remember, when he used to tweet about h0w strong the economy was, that we had the strongest economy in history, he would say, "Oh it's probably the strongest economy in history…" I mean he would qualify it a little bit. But now, no more qualifiers. He is emphatic. Without a doubt, this is the strongest economy is U.S. history.
Fake News
Of course, I don't like hypocrites. One of the things that Trump does, is he calls out the media for spreading fake news. The problem, is, he spreads fake news, too. When he is talking about how we have the strongest economy ever, that's fake news! So you can't live in a glass house and then throw stones and that's what the President does.
More Weak Numbers
In fact, if you look at the economic data that came out this week, the data was weak! The ISM manufacturing number and the PMI number were weak . In fact they weren't as weak as they were expecting, but they were expecting weak numbers and we got weak numbers. Just not quite as weak. Although, the construction spending number that came out yesterday was considerably weaker than had been expected. Now, the Atlanta Fed is still at 1.54% .
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/3/2019 • 46 minutes, 27 seconds
Political Reality Could Sink Stocks in 2nd Half – Ep. 479
See Peter at the Las Vegas Freedom Fest – July 17-20
https://www.freedomfest.com/
Save $50 using code SCHIFF
Recorded June 28, 2019
Dow Jones Had Best June Since 1938
U.S. stocks finished a down week on an up note, but the gains were not that large today. But of course, they were very big for the month of June. In fact, the Dow Jones just had its best June since 1938. That was during the Great Depression. S&P, not as big a record; you only have to go back to 1955 to find a June where the S&P did better than June 2019. So these are big moves up. Percentage-wise, though, I think it's about 7%, approximately, maybe a little bit less.
Stock Market Actually Lost Value In Terms of Gold
Now the price of gold was up 8% during the month of June. In other words, while the price of stocks went up in terms of paper money - dollars - in terms of real money - gold - stocks actually lost value during the month. Now, the first half of the year also comes to an end today, as does the second quarter, and this is the best first half of the year in 22 years. the S&P was up about 17.5% or so, the Dow about 14%. I think I'm counting dividends - I'm just talking about the appreciation, so the total return would be a little better when you throw in the meager dividends that you can collect on U.S. stocks. NASDAQ was up about 20% - not much in the way of dividends there. Russell 2000 was up about 9%. This is on the first half of the year.
Stocks Recovering From Worst December Since Great Depression
I'm sure you're going to read a lot of tweets from Donald Trump about how great the stock market is in 2019; how great the month of June is and why we should thank him for this spectacular performance in the stock market. But the only reason that the market has done so well this year is because it got destroyed in the 4th quarter of last year. Remember, we had the worst December since the Great Depression, as well.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/29/2019 • 54 minutes, 59 seconds
The Fed Has Served Government Well, Not America – Ep. 478
See Peter at the Las Vegas Freedom Fest – July 17-20
https://www.freedomfest.com/
Save $50 using code SCHIFF
Gold: Six-Year High Overnight
Overnight the price of gold rose to a six-year high. We almost got to $1440. I think the high I saw was maybe $1438 - 39… we were up about $19 at the high point. Then it became a very volatile session overnight into the wee hours of the morning. But I think by the time we got into the New York time zone, gold was still up about $10-$12-$13 dollars on the day and it was up about that amount when the U.S. stock market opened for trading.
Before Today, Gold Stocks Up 20%
Gold stocks initially had a small rally, but nothing big. Then they spent most of the day on the downside. Obviously the gold traders are still very cautious. As I have been saying, this gold breakout, even though we did see pretty big moves in gold stocks, I think the GDX, not counting today's losses, (the GDX was down about 2% today) but not counting today, we were up 20% in the month of June. So, still, a very big rise. But really not nearly as big a rise as it should be, considering, I think, the significance of this gold breakout. Except, of course, if people don't believe it. If they're cautious about it, so they're reluctant to bid up the price of gold stocks.
Investors Still Reluctant on Gold and Silver - Why?
The same thing with silver. In fact, silver never had much of a rally today, and it actually settled down, I think 8 cents on the day, even though gold ended up finishing up $4 - well off the highs. But it didn't close negative. At one point during New York trading, the price of gold was negative on the day, but it managed to bounce back for the close. Silver, I think, ended at 15.33. The gold/silver ratio that I spoke about on the last podcast now, I think is close to 93:1. Again, I think investors are reluctant to buy up silver because they are expecting the price of gold to roll over.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/26/2019 • 55 minutes, 53 seconds
Gold Breaks out but Investors Remain Cautious – Ep. 477
Recorded June 21, 2019
See Peter at the Las Vegas Freedom Fest - July 17-20
https://www.freedomfest.com/
Save $50 using code SCHIFF
S&P Record High: Why?
U.S. stock market averages finished an up week on a down note. In fact, the S&P 500, before closing negative on the day made a new all-time record high. The S&P is the only major index that did make a new record high this week, in fact Donald Trump tweeted about the record high in the S&P twice yesterday. As soon as the market gapped open at a record high, Donald Trump tweeted out a reminder that the S&P opened at a record high, and then when it closed at a record high, he sent out a second tweet to remind everybody that the stock market closed at a record high.
Fed's Lower Rates Behind Stock Market Highs
The idea is that he's taking credit for it. The stock market is doing so well because Donald Trump is President, and if anybody else were President, the market would be collapsing. That's the impression that Donald Trump is trying to convey. But, of course, the reality is the opposite. The reason the market made a new high is because investors are relieved that the Fed is going to cut interest rates. So, it's lower interest rates that is behind the record high in the S&P - not anything Donald Trump has done.
Low Interest Rates Needed to Bail out Economy
Now, Donald Trump is saying, "Hey I've been telling the Fed to cut rates!". So maybe he can claim credit for the fact that the Fed is cutting rates because he beat them up so much, but that's really not what he is trying to claim. He's trying to claim that the rising stock market is indicative of how great the economy is under his presidency. But, it's not because the economy is great that the Fed is cutting rates, it's because it's lousy!
Heading for Recession
The Fed is cutting rates because the economy is headed for recession. So if that's the only reason the stock market is going up, that the economy is so bad that the Federal Reserve has to abort their rate-tightening campaign, and they have to come to an emergency rescue mission, they have to try to bail out the economy with rate cuts, is that really something that Donald Trump should be bragging about?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/22/2019 • 48 minutes, 55 seconds
Fed Readies Markets for July Rate Cut – Ep. 476
Visit me at the Benzinga Trading Conference, NYC tomorrow
Fed Tweaking Language to Officially Adopt Easing Bias
Keeping with its tradition of having a tendency to act incrementally, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee today announced that it was leaving interest rates unchanged - which was the consensus. There was an 80% probability that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged. The other 20% was that they would cut rates. So there was a zero percent probability that the Fed would increase rates. But before delivering an official rate cut, what the Fed wanted to do was to prepare the markets in advance and take one step in that direction, which was to tweak its language to officially adopt a bias toward easing, which is exactly what the Fed did.
Fed to Sustain "Expansion"
The Fed basically acknowledged that the economic data had been weakening and that they wanted to do what was appropriate, or that they were willing to do what was appropriate to sustain the expansion. Now, they didn't come right out and say that the economy is headed for a recession; even though that is exactly what is happening. They said they wanted to see more data before they moved. But after they failed to cut rates, the probability for a rate cut in July, which is the very next time the Fed meets, rose to 100%. So they took the 20% probability for the cut in June, since we didn't get it, the markets added that to the 80% probability of a cut in July.
Looking Toward Negative Data
Which means the markets are convinced that whatever data the Fed sees between now and the July meeting in going to be bad. It's not going to be good (positive) data. Of course, it IS going to be bad data. The data has been bad. The economy has been weakening. We've been seeing a series of weakening economic data. The economy is not just slowing down, it is headed to a recession. That is something that the Fed will never admit.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/20/2019 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 55 seconds
Trump Is Keynes on Steroids – Ep. 475
Recorded June 14, 2019
Gold: Up Today
When I recorded my podcast last Friday, I speculated that the price of gold might gap up the following Monday above $1350/oz., but that didn't happen because over the weekend Donald Trump managed to tweet out a face-saving way in which to not impose the tariffs on Mexican products that may have gone into effect on Monday. The markets breathed a sigh of relief. So, instead of gapping up. the price of gold went the opposite direction and gapped down.
Fourteen Month High
This morning, we got the gap. It was on the last day of the week, not the first day of the week, but gold gapped higher on the day. It was actually trading as high as $1356 or $1357 earlier this morning. That was a 52-week high in the price of gold. In fact, it was a 14-month high. We were actually up even before we got any economic data. I think the high of the day might have been before the U.S stock market opened, when we were up about $15 or so.
The Key is Above $1350
What happened was, at 8:30, prior to the opening of the U.S. market, we got some economic data that was a bit stronger than expected. And that stronger than expected data rained on the gold rally parade, sending the price of gold down on the day. It only closed down about a buck or so, but we did not hold above $1350. Now the key level is not really $1350 - it's a little bit higher up, because the price of gold has been above $1350 twice before, I think, in the last six years, not counting today. But it wasn't able to hold. That's the key. We need to see the price of gold get higher. Maybe close above $1375.
Gold the Favorite Trade for the Next 12-24 Months
There's a lot of noise. That's where all the resistance has been coming in - between $1350 and $1375. But nonetheless, I think, as I said in the last podcast, the more times we knock on this resistance door the more likely it is that the door is going to open. In fact, the buyers continue to come in to the price of gold. I was listening to an interview with Paul Tudor Jones. He was asked what his favorite trade was for the next 12-24 months, and his answer was gold. And a lot of smart people are now coming out and saying that, "Yeah, gold's going higher. Gold's got everything going for it, and they want to be involved. And of course I think if the price of gold does what I think it is going to do, and what some other smart people think it's going to do, well then the price of gold stocks are going to do even better.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/15/2019 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 9 seconds
Trump Defuses His Own Bomb – Ep. 474
Recorded June 10, 2019
Tariffs Off, Gold Gapped Down
On Friday's podcast, I speculated that potentially we could see a gap up in the price of gold, gapping above the $1350 resistance level that has capped every gold rally for the past 6 years. But gold actually gapped in the other direction. It gapped down about $13 and it was down all day - never filled that gap.
Catalyst for Sell-off
The catalyst for the gold sell-off was Donald Trump calling off the tariffs that were supposed to go into effect today. The five percent across the board tariffs on Mexico. That announcement came out on Friday, pretty much right after I finished recording my podcast, we got the news. So I immediately knew that that forecast probably was not going to come to fruition, or that speculation, potentially. Because I knew the markets would react positively to this news. After all, everybody was rightly worried about the negative impacts that those tariffs would have on the U.S. economy, in particular. They weren't as worried about Mexico, at least when it comes to the gold market, but they were worried about how it would impact the U.S. economy.
One Less Thing for the Fed to Worry About
And of course, one of the reasons (of course there are many) that the Fed is talking about cutting rates is because of all the uncertainty that is being created because of tariffs. If there aren't going to be as many tariffs, if the Mexico tariffs aren't going to actually happen, well then that's one less thing to worry about, and maybe that's one less reason for the Fed to cut rates.
Mexican Tariffs are a Sideshow
Of course, cutting rates is part of the reason that people have been buying gold; the reason we had that big 8-day rally, which came to an end today. What's been powering the gold rally is the talk of Fed rate cuts. Now I don't think today's sell-off is going to be significant. It's just one more time we knocked on that resistance door and it didn't open, but it is ultimately going to open. Because at the end of the day, the Mexican tariffs are a sideshow. The main event is that the U.S economy is going into recession anyway, and the rate cuts are coming.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/11/2019 • 58 minutes, 22 seconds
Game over for the Fed – Ep. 473
Recorded June 7, 2019
Dow Finished the Week with a 4.7% Gain
The Dow Jones soared 263 points today, although at one point the index was up better than 350 points. But it managed to finish the week with a 4.7% gain. That is the best showing for the Dow Jones Industrials in 6 months and in fact we snapped a six-week losing streak this week. All of the major averages had positive weeks. The NASDAQ - the best gainer on the day; up 1.7% - not quite as strong on the week because it took a shellacking on Monday with the FANG stocks leading the way down - but up about 3.7% on the week. Similar gains for the Russell 2000, the Dow Transports, the S&P 500 not quite as strong as the Dow - I think up about 4.2% on the week.
What was the Catalyst?
But why? What was the catalyst for this big move up in the U.S. stock market? Was it better than expected earnings? Not really. Some companies beat estimates. Take a look at some of these recent IPO's like Zoom Video. Zoom Video was up 18% today because it earned 3 cents a share instead of the one cent that Wall Street was expecting. Now, 3 cents per share is not a lot of earnings when you're a $94 stock, but that's where the stock is.
Beyond Meat to Infinity and Beyond
Even more ridiculous is Beyond Meat, which is beyond sanity as it's going to infinity and beyond. Now, Beyond Meat was up almost 40% today, $138.65. The high was $149.46. This stock is already more than tripled its IPO price - or quadrupled, I can't really tell. Now they're still not making money at Beyond Meat, so they still haven't moved beyond losses. The company lost $6.6 million on the quarter; that's 95 cents per share. But it is an improvement, because a year ago, in the same period, they lost 98 cents a share. If you adjust it, if you back out a lot of other stuff, like stock-based compensation and things that nobody likes to count, then they only lost 14 cents per share, which was better than the 15 cents a share loss that Wall Street was expecting. So clearly that's worth an extra 40% on the price of the stock. I forget what this thing is trading; 100+ times revenue. It is a crazy multiple, but at least the stock has a viable product.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/8/2019 • 44 minutes, 32 seconds
ZIRP and QE Are Now Conventional Monetary Policy – Ep. 472
Recorded June 5, 2019
Volatility Led by NASDAQ
There's been a lot of volatility in the stock market since I recorded my last podcast on Friday. In fact, on Monday, the tech stocks in particular got beaten up. The NASDAQ dropped by better than 150 points, led lower by the so-called FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google). Google and Facebook, the biggest drop - I think it was something like 6-8%. Part of that had to do with the Justice Department investigating Google.
Enlisting the Power of Government in the Marketplace
Of course, I don't think that we should be involved at all in anti-trust. Almost all of the companies that have been broken up or that had been put through the ringer by the U.S. government achieved whatever type of market dominance they had based on just being good competitors, delivering the best quality at the lowest price. And government just came in and really what they were doing was advocating for competitors that were having a problem competing. It wasn't because the consumer was getting ripped off; in general the consumer was being rewarded with low prices and high quality. But companies that couldn't compete, since they couldn't win in the marketplace, enlisted the power of government to work for them. So government, really is not about preventing monopolies - they create monopolies. The government comes into a market and legally gives a company a monopoly and uses the power of government to make sure that nobody competes. This is all a bunch of nonsense that we need government to "keep the markets free".
Moving Away from Risk
But, in general, if you look at what was happening to the markets on Monday, there was a huge movement from growth stocks, momentum stocks, speculative stocks, riskier stocks, to defensive stocks - value oriented stocks. The Dow Jones was actually positive on the day - it wasn't up a lot, but it was up, even though you had a 150 point drop in the NASDAQ. I think that is an important key, because this is something that needs to happen and it is long overdue, that investors start to get more defensive in anticipation of a weakening economy.
Dividend-Paying Stocks More Attractive
You have all of these high-multiple stocks, their P/E's are going to have to come down to earth. And, of course, people are looking at a slowing economy, they are looking at lower interest rates - they believe they are going to get lower interest rates, so it makes sense that dividend-paying stocks would be more attractive in a falling-rate environment.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/6/2019 • 54 minutes, 47 seconds
Ep. 471: Mexico Won’t Pay for the Wall or the Tariffs
Sell in May and Go Away
U.S. stocks closed out the week and the month of May with heavy losses; the DJIA down 354.84 points. Pretty much going out near the low of the day. That's a drop of 1.4%. NASDAQ also getting killed - 114.57 down - that was a 1.5% decline on the day. The Russell 2000 continues to melt down. That index falling 20 points - down 1.35% on the day. But the biggest losses continue to be in the Dow Jones Transports. That index was down almost 2% - 1.9% - 188.4 points. This is the worst May for U.S stocks since 2010. The Dow is down about 7% just in the month of May. Remember, "Sell in May and go away"? Well it hasn't worked in a while, but this was a great time to sell May first!
Russell 2000 and Dow Transports Weakest Indexes
Again, I told everybody that I thought the bear market rally was over based on the Fed not being as dovish as the markets expected, and it's been down hill from there. If you look at the Russell 2000 and the Transports, these two indexes did not make new highs. Remember the Dow and the S&P, the NASDAQ made new highs. Now, they're all down considerably - the Dow is 8% off those highs now. But the Russell 2000 and the Dow Transports did not make new highs, and now they are the weakest index and now the Russell 2000 is down just under 16% from its peak, and the Transports - over 16%. So both of those indexes are about 4% points away from being officially back in bear market territory, which means 20% from the highs. We could easily be there next week, on these stocks.
Debacle du Jour: Gap
Now the other indexes have further to go, I mean the NASDAQ is only down about 9% from its peak. So 1% away from what Wall Street would officially call a "correction". The retailers continue to also be hammered. The Debacle du Jour was Gap, which gapped down by about 15% on the day on weaker than expected sales. The stock managed to rally most of the day, so it only closed down a little over 9%. But still, it closed better than 47% below its 52-week high.
Domestically Focused Stocks Weakest
But, when you have the Russell 2000 and the Transports the weakest part of the market, those are the most domestically focused stocks. Those are the stocks that are the weakest. So everybody who keeps talking about how great the U.S. economy is, if they look at the market, the market is telling you a different story.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/1/2019 • 58 minutes, 9 seconds
Bond Buyers Correct About Recession But Bet Won’t Pay Off – Ep. 470
Recorded May 29, 2019
The End of the Bear Market Rally
Back on May 1, when I did my podcast, I officially called for the end of the bear market rally that so many people had confused for a new bull market, and the impetus for that call was the Fed coming out and not living up to Wall Street's expectations for just how dovish the Fed was. Remember, the market was starting to factor in rate cuts, not just an end to the tightening cycle, but the beginning of the next easing cycle. And Jerome Powell basically threw cold water on that by talking about how low inflation was transitory, and how he expected it to go back up, and all of a sudden the markets were starting to think that the Fed wasn't going to cut rates and the market went down a bit.
The Fed Giveth and the Fed Taketh Away
I thought that given that the rally was built based on the Fed, that what the Fed giveth by being more dovish than the markets expected the Fed had finally taken away by being more hawkish. Even though I didn't believe that the Fed was as hawkish as the markets believed, I believe the Fed is far more dovish than the markets believe. But once Powell dashed those hopes, that was enough, I thought, to take the wind out of the sail of the rally.
Throwing Down the Gauntlet on Trade
And then, of course, Donald Trump, himself, pulled the rug out from under the market when, the following weekend, he basically threw down the gauntlet on the trade war; tweeted out that he was going to be imposing 25% tariffs across the board on Americans who want to buy any Chinese products. And then the markets really started to fall. Although, I said at the time, that if the markets really perceived how great the threat was, they would have been down quite a bit more. But we now have two back-to-back better than 200-point declines in the Dow.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/30/2019 • 51 minutes, 26 seconds
Will Tesla Crash the Corporate Bond Market? – Ep. 469
Recorded May 22, 2019
Low Inflation is Transitory
Today we got the release of the most recent minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, and I guess it was a bit of a mixed bag for people who were looking for whether the Fed was going to be more hawkish or more dovish with respect to its next move on interest rates. One thing that was revealed in the minutes that the governors still maintain, they are still saying that they feel that this "low inflation" that we've been experiencing is transitory. What that means is that it's temporary and the low inflation is going to go back up toward their 2% target. This is supposedly a hawkish statement, because if the Fed were worried that low inflation was going to persist, then they would do something about it to save us from the horrors of not having the cost of living rise at a fast enough clip.
When It Comes to Inflation Fighting the Fed Is All Bark and No Bite
But, as far as I'm concerned, none of this even matters, because a) they are right, inflation is transitory, and b) it's not even as low as they think because the CPI is not accurate. So inflation is already higher than what the official numbers reveal. But even if it is transitory, which it is, and even if the numbers go north of 2%, which they will, the Fed is going to do nothing. People still don't get it, that when it comes to inflation fighting the Fed is all bark and no bite.
"For Some Time" Means Forever
But then if you look at what the Fed said in the same minutes with regard to their "patience" with respect to the next rate hike, remember, the Fed went from pretty much auto pilot - they were raising rates, they were tightening - to being "patient", and being "appropriate", and now, if you read what they said, they said that it is going to be appropriate to remain patient "for some time". Now what does that mean - "for some time"? Basically, it means forever. What the Fed is basically saying by saying that it is appropriate to be patient for some time, meaning, "you don't have to worry about any rate hikes".Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/23/2019 • 57 minutes, 41 seconds
Ep. 468: Consumer Confidence Begins with a Con
Don't miss the movie, "The Housing Bubble" premiering June 26, 2019
Back in Puerto Rico
I am finally back in Puerto Rico, after having spent 8 long days in Las Vegas for both the SALT conference and The Las Vegas Money Show. I really do enjoy coming back to Puerto Rico, I miss it quite a bit while I'm away. A lot of people who are thinking about making the move to Puerto Rico to take advantage of the tax benefits that exist here… One of the reasons that people are reluctant to come down here is that they don't want to uproot their family and move to a place where they really don't know anybody, they leave their friends, they leave their family members… I'll tell you, for me, personally, probably the best thing about being here, other than the tax breaks and the beautiful weather are the people that you meet when you come down here. It is an incredible group of people that have moved here. I think we're building a great community of quasi-ex-pats here in Puerto Rico. So, if you're worried about not having enough friends and not having enough to do, that's the least of your worries. So I certainly would recommend that more people would consider making the move to Puerto Rico.
Visit Me at the Freedom Fest in Las Vegas July 17-20
But I am also looking forward to going back up to Connecticut, I'm going to be spending most of the summer there. We'll be leaving the weekend of Memorial Day. By the way, if you didn't have an opportunity to come to any of the events in Vegas, I will be back in Vegas again in mid-July for the Freedom Fest.
Appearing at the Premiere of "The Housing Bubble"
I will also be in New York City on June 26 to attend the premier of the movie, "The Housing Bubble" on June 26. You can buy tickets at the website letusdisagree.com. The movie is a documentary about the 2008 housing bubble, but it features a lot of people who were predicting or warning about the bubble before it popped, and warning about the financial crisis. Of course, I am one of those people who was issuing those warnings, but I'm not the only one. It's a very good documentary; I'll be there. I think there's going to be a Q&A period with me and some of the other people who were featured in the movie at the event. So it would be great, if you're in the New York area this summer, June 26, go on letusdisagree.com and buy yourself some tickets.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/18/2019 • 58 minutes, 8 seconds
Of Course You Know, This Means War – Ep. 467
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 – 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/…/4532d84bf…/peter-schiff/
As Noted on My Last Podcast…
As I suspected on Friday's podcast, the 400-point reversal that saw the Dow move from down 300 points + to up 100 points on the close was in fact, reversed today, and the Dow Jones actually closed below the Friday low, which is a huge negative, technically for the index. The Dow was down 617 points; that's about 2.4 %. But the real carnage was in the NASDAQ. That was down 3.4%. The Russell 2000 also down better than 3% - 3.2%, showing that domestically focused stocks are actually getting hit harder than the multi-nationals.
Lyft and Uber Still Sinking
More trouble again for the recent IPO's, in particular, the ride-hailing companies Lyft - down again, another 5.8% off the lows of the day - the lowest $47.17, closed at $48.15. The Uber disaster continues. Uber was down almost 11% today. At one point, it was down 12% - the low was $36.08. We closed at 37.10. Remember we came public Friday. This is only the second trading day. Uber came public at $45, and now it is at $37.10, and as I said again on last week's podcast, these types of stocks are going to get particularly hit hard if the market carnage continues, which I think it will.
China: No Deal
I think the bear market rally is over - I've been saying that, "Long live the bear market". The Bear market rally is dead. We are going a lot lower. The catalyst today was also something that I was pointing out on my podcast last week, and that was the fact that we are not going to get a deal with China. I've been saying for a long time, that even if we got a deal, it would be, "buy the rumor, sell the fact". But I also said that it was becoming obvious that Trump had so over-promised the "great deal" that it was almost impossible to have a deal without disappointing the markets. So, I think Trump made a calculated decision that no deal is better than a deal that disappoints, especially since he had already goosed the market up to new highs. So even if we sold off, Trump could say, "Well, this is some short-term pain; it's necessary for the long-term gain." and it may, in fact be the catalyst that causes the Fed to cut interest rates and launch QE, which is what Trump wants.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/14/2019 • 55 minutes, 54 seconds
The Fed Created an Uber Problem – Ep. 466
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 – 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Recorded May 10, 2018
Why Escalate Trade War If Negotiations Are Going so Great?
The U.S. stock markets finished off the worst week of the year with a gain despite the fact that, as expected, the trade talks between the United States and China broke down today, and no deal. The new tariffs went into effect at 12:01am this morning. Despite the fact that Trump is now retaliating by escalating the trade war, he still claims that the discussions are going well, that they are making a lot of progress. None of that makes any sense. If things are going well, and you're making progress, you don't escalate the war. That makes no sense. All that is going to do is piss off the Chinese. So, if everything is going so well, you would not want to do that.
Maybe Trump Would Rather Have the Tariffs
This shows that things are breaking down, that there is some desperation and Trump feels he has to turn up the pressure in order to try to force the Chinese into a deal. Although, I am not even sure Trump believes a deal is actually better than the tariffs. First of all, I don't believe that Trump is going to be able to deliver the type of substantive, game-changing great deal that he has been promising. So, from that perspective, if Trump actually believes that tariffs are good for the U.S. economy because it means we're going to get some kind of windfall, that the Chinese are going to be sending us all this money, well then maybe he prefers the tariffs to a deal that does not live up to the hype.
Tariffs Are Simply Another Tax on the American People
But, of course, Trump is wrong if that's what he believes. The tariffs simply represent taxes on the American consumer. They are just one type of tax. You can have a sales tax, you can have an income tax, you can have a tariff. All the taxes are paid by American people. It doesn't matter what you call them or how you want to levy them, that's where the money is coming from. So, if you think lower taxes are good, then you can't think tariffs are good. Unless you're going to offset the tariffs by cutting taxes someplace else and say, "We're going to fund government through tariffs as opposed to funding government through another source. But the tariffs in and of themselves do not deliver a benefit to Americans. They simply make products that are subject to the tariffs more expensive to buy. So Americans have a choice: pay the higher price or don't buy the product.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/10/2019 • 48 minutes, 58 seconds
Did Trump Tank Stocks to Force Rate Cut? – Ep. 465
See Peter at the SALT Conference at the Bellagio, Las Vegas May 7-10, 2019
https://www.salt.org/bio-schiff-peter
Market Volatility
I just arrived in Las Vegas, where I will be spending the next 8 days - I actually have 2 conferences heres; I have the SALT Conference (SkyBridge Alternative Asset Conference) that really kicks off tomorrow, though there is a welcome reception tonight, and then I do the Las Vegas Money Show, which kicks off on Monday. So I'm here for quite some time. I haven't even unpacked my bags, though. I wanted to record a short podcast to comment mainly on the market volatility.
Buyers Bought Dip on Monday
The stock market was way down on Monday morning. Of course, the selloff started in the futures market on Sunday night, where the Dow futures was down over 500 points at one time. But by the time we opened, the Dow was only off about 450 and the dip buyers came in, and they bought the market all day, and we closed near the highs. It couldn't close positive - I think the Dow was only off about 70 points. So the buyers came in as they are trained to do. They bought the dip.
Trump's Tariff Tweets
What caused the initial selloff was a pair of tweets; the two tweets were related. A lot of times, when Donald Trump sends out a tweet, he has a lot of stuff in there. or he will send out 2 tweets to make the same message. And, what happened is he basically said that he was going to impose more tariffs on China. He tweeted that, by this Friday, he is going to "up" the 10% tariffs to 25%. So Americans who are now being taxed 10% for buying some Chinese goods, if they buy those Chinese goods starting on Friday, they will have to pay a 25% tariff on those goods.
New Additional 25% Tariffs
He also tweeted that he was going to apply the 25% tariff to goods that right now aren't paying any tariffs. So there are still a lot of Chinese goods that Americans could buy without being subject to tariffs, but now Trump is saying that now that is going to go away. At the end of this week, he's going to hit those goods. So Americans buying pretty much any Chinese products are going to have to pay a 25% tariff.
Additional Tax on American Consumers
Now, of course, Donald Trump thinks these tariffs are great, because he believes the Chinese pay them, which, of course, is not true. The tariffs are added on here in the United States, so it is the American consumers who pay those tariffs. Now, it can hurt China because if the higher prices cause fewer Americans to buy Chinese goods because they don't want to pay the higher price, then China doesn't sell its goods in America.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/8/2019 • 24 minutes, 27 seconds
Job Headlines Still Mask the Real Story – Ep. 464
Recorded May 3, 2019
See Peter at the SALT Conference at the Bellagio, Las Vegas May 7-10, 2019
https://www.salt.org/bio-schiff-peter
Jobs Surge in April, Unemployment Rate Falls
Today is Jobs Friday; the first Friday of the month, that we get the nonfarm payroll number. I don't know if the markets anticipated more or Donald Trump, because of course he's ready to send out a tweet when we get a better than expected number. That's what happened today; we got another number that was better than expected. Certainly the headline number - they were looking for an increase of 180,00 jobs, which would have been a bit of a reduction over last month's 196,000 jobs - which was revised down slightly to 189,000. We ended up getting 263,000 jobs, so another number with a 2-handle - a much bigger number than had been anticipated, and the unemployment number, also surprisingly dropped. Two tenths, from 3.8% to 3.6%. Hispanic unemployment actually hit an all-time record low. I expected Donald Trump to tweet about that, because obviously he's being accused of being a racist. Clearly, if he can show that, "Well, look, Hispanic unemployment is at an all-time record low, how are my policies racist, if we have a record low in unemployment among Hispanics?" He did tweet about the jobs numbers and the low unemployment numbers.
Which Numbers are Fraudulent Now?
But again, I reminded Trump (not that he actually ever reads my tweets, he gets so many) that when he brags about how low the unemployment rate is, the official rate, I always remind him, "Wait a minute, you are the person who accused these numbers of being fraudulent, fakes, phonies, a scam - Donald Trump as a candidate was very critical of Barack Obama's phony recovery mainly because Obama was hiding behind (what Trump said were) fraudulent statistics. Well, these are the same statistics that Donald Trump is embracing - the same statistics that he criticized. So, I guess the President no longer about all of the discouraged workers who are no longer looking for work, he doesn't care about all the people who are working part time, but would prefer to work full time, but they can't find a full time job, so they settle for a part time jobs. These are the people who are not included in that 3.6% unemployment rate. The President cared about those people when he was a candidate.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/4/2019 • 1 hour, 23 seconds
The Fed Is Far More Dovish Than It Admits – Ep. 463
Recorded May 1, 2019
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Market Looking for Validation of Expectations
Today was the conclusion of the FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, and that is exactly what the market was expecting. Nobody expected the Fed to hike, and nobody expected the Fed to cut. But apparently, a lot of people expected the Fed to be more dovish with respect to its outlook for a potential future rate cut. Remember, the Fed Fund futures are showing that the next move is likely to be a cut and that maybe the Fed will cut by 50 basis points by the end of the year, so the markets are probably looking for some reassurance from the Fed that the market's expectations of lower interest rates are valid, and that's not what they got today from Chairman Powell.
Inflation Below 2%. Who Cares?
'In fact, he was actually asked, point blank, by CNBC's Steve Liesman - it was one of the first questions asked, maybe it was the first - whether or not the Federal Reserve was going to do something about persistently low inflation, because, after all, the official inflation rate is slightly below their target. I mean, if the target is 2%, we're at 1.7%, 1.8%… Who cares? But somehow this is an emergency, this is a disaster - we're not hitting our 2% target, even though we're pretty damn close. But, is the Fed going to do something about it? And instead of saying, "Oh, yes, we're going to do something about it, we're going to cut rates to make sure that we have 2% inflation", what Powell said was, "Well, yes, we acknowledge that inflation is lower than we would like and its lower than our goal, but we're not worried, because we expect it to be transitory." In other words, we're not worried about inflation being too low, because we believe the inflation rate is going to rise, and so there's nothing to worry about. In fact, what Powell said was that the Fed will be patient, but as of right now, they can't see a reason why they should hike or they don't see a reason why they should cut.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/2/2019 • 51 minutes, 30 seconds
Q1 Likely the Strongest Quarter of the Year – Ep. 462
Recorded April 26, 2019
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Q1 GDP Expected at 2.3%
Today we finally got the first estimate for the U.S. GDP in the first quarter of 2019, and typically the first quarter of the year has been rather weak. That has been the experience pretty much going back through the Barack Obama administration. And the consensus was for a 2.3% rise in Q1 GDP, that would have been just a slight improvement over the 2.2% number that we got for the 4th quarter of 2018.
Expectations Were Low
If you remember, way back, a couple of months ago, everybody was really low. You had a lot of people who were looking for Q1 GDP to come out with a zero handle. But they had been ratcheting up those expectations now to a consensus of 2.3%. A lot of it had to do with the fact that the trade deficits had come in a lot smaller than people thought. I think the reason for that is because the trade deficit really ramped up in the last couple of quarters, probably because businesses were trying to front-run the tariffs that were supposed to come in at the end of last year. That might have caused extra imports to try to get things in under the gun before they were subjected to the tariffs. So because we pulled all that forward, imports weren't as much in the first quarter, so they did not subtract as much from the GDP.
Inventories Continued to Build
Also, the inventories continue to build, but most importantly, because they weren't selling. Goods weren't selling as much - inventories were building. That ended up helping. We ended up getting a number that was much bigger than consensus. We actually got 3.2% GDP growth for Q1.
Delaying the Day of Reckoning
Now, before you get all excited, "Aha, Peter, you were totally wrong on this, you were looking for a weak number…" - first of all, a lot of people were looking for a weak number. It wasn't just me. But I do believe that we simply delayed the day of reckoning by a quarter. I think this time, it's going to be the second quarter that will be a big disaster.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/27/2019 • 52 minutes, 16 seconds
Raise the Voting Age, Not the Smoking Age – Ep. 461
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Easter and Passover
I hope everybody enjoyed their Easter holiday, in fact, today is Easter Monday, so many parts of the world are still celebrating, including here in Puerto Rico. We are still in the holiday of Passover, so hopefully everybody who celebrates Passover, myself included, is still enjoying that holiday. In fact, this year, the first night of Passover coincided with Good Friday; a rare occasion that unites the two religions. We generally end up celebrating both.
Removal of Sanction Exemptions Drives Oil Prices Up
The markets have been quiet around the holidays. The big story today in the markets was the price of crude oil - up about $1.60/barrel. We're now at $65.71 per barrel. This is a new high for the year. Today, the catalyst was the Trump administration announcing that they would be withdrawing the exemptions that allow certain countries such as Japan, India, China - a number of countries currently buying oil from Ira. Now we're saying no more exemptions. They're saying, if you buy oil from Iran, then you're going to get sanctioned. Generally, what that means is the U.S. is going to shut you out of access to the dollar-based financial system - wiring and using the resources of the Fed. Considering that most of the world still transacts internationally in U.S. dollars is a very very serious punishment that the U.S. is able to dole out to any nation that does not do its bidding.
Effect on our Trading Partners?
Now, of course, this angers our trading partners who do not like being dictated to by the United States, they do not like the United States being able to tell them who they can and cannot do business with, and to punish them if they do not do what the United States says. Of course, this is all a function of the U.S. dollar being the reserve currency, which certainly gives nations like China, or like Russia or any other nation an incentive to try to move away from the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/23/2019 • 51 minutes, 40 seconds
April’s Fools Day Comes Late – Ep. 460
Recorded April 16, 2019
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Tax Day
Yesterday was April 15th - Tax Day, or as my father, Irwin Schiff used to say, "April Fool's Day". My father thought it was April Fool's Day because he believed that that was the day on which Americans basically voluntarily paid a tax that no law required them to pay and voluntarily filed a 1040 tax form that no law required them to file. Of course, my father ultimately went to jail and died and jail because of those beliefs. I have been paying my taxes, although now that I live in Puerto Rico it's not nearly as painful as it used to be when I lived in Connecticut.
16th Amendment
A lot of people don't realize that April 15 was not always Tax Day; a little bit of trivia. When the income tax first passed, or reared its ugly head in 1913 - although that's not the first time we had an income tax. We had an income tax during the civil war. The North imposed the tax and when the war ended, the income tax went away. It came back again, and it was declared unconstitutional, correctly, by the Supreme Court in the Pollock Decision. Then they resurrected it with the 16th Amendment, and following the 16th Amendment in 1913, the original Tax Day was March 1.
Income Tax
Why is that? Because the income tax is a tax on your income for an entire year. So, we are now in 2019 and we're paying our income taxes for 2018. But you don't know what your income is in 2018 until the year is over. You may have earned a lot of money early in the year - you could lose it all back on the last day of the year and end up with no income at all - end up with a loss. So the idea was, if you're going to tax your income, then we have to wait until the end of the year, and then we have to give you some time to add up your income and figure out what you owe and then pay the tax.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/17/2019 • 38 minutes, 29 seconds
Political Theater of the Absurd – Ep. 459
Recorded April 10, 2019
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW May 13 - 15, 2019
Lyft Sinking
I began yesterday's podcast by pointing out the weakness in shares of the recent IPO of Lyft. In fact, I mentioned that Friday's close above the IPO price (the first time it closed above that price since the day of the IPO) the fact that it couldn't hold on to that rally, I thought that meant the stock looked even weaker, technically. And we got a big follow through today. Lyft sank about 11%, it closed near the lows of the day, 60.12. In fact, we did trade as low as 59.75 on the closing minutes of trading. We're now down about 32% from the opening print, after it went IPO on that day. We're 17-18% below the IPO price. If you happen to get the IPO price and you still have the stock, you're almost in a bear market from that purchase price.
Catalyst: Uber News
The catalyst today was the news that it looks like the Uber IPO is going to happen sooner than everybody thought. Maybe they will be filing as early as this week, and the IPO is going to be bigger than people initially thought, as far as how much stock they're looking to unload on investors. Although, they're taking the valuation down from maybe $90 to $100 billion. I think initially they were talking $110-120 billion, and they're going to look to unload about 10% of the company - $10 billion. Now, you would think, "Wait a minute, if Lyft is doing so poorly, what is the rush to bring Uber to the market? Doesn't it seem like a bad time?" But if you think about it, I think what Wall Street is worried about, is if they wait even longer, the price of Lyft will sink even further. So it's a mad dash to get this thing out there before it really hits the fan, because this is showtime for all of these unicorns.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/10/2019 • 52 minutes, 28 seconds
Democracy has Failed, Not Capitalism – Ep. 458
VERY IMPORTANT PODCAST! Please share with everyone you care about. Ray Dalio: Please start at 29:52
Extreme Inequality Is Not a Function of Capitalism
I agree that wealth inequality is a problem, but it is a problem that is created by government - created by the Federal Reserve. I was warning years ago, when the Federal Reserve first launched Quantitative Easing, that this was going to happen! This policy would only benefit assets at the expense of the overall economy. I've been warning about this for years. The government is doing this, not the market. So, yes, I want the government to do something about wealth inequality by getting out of the way. I want Capitalism to do something about inequality. Now, of course, there's always going to be inequality - that's part of capitalism. People are not going to be equal, because peoples' contributions are not equal. What is not normal right now is the extent of the disparity. That extreme inequality is not a function of Capitalism. if we enjoyed Capitalism, there would be less inequality.
We Need to Embrace and Re-Discover Capitalism
Ray Dalio recently replied to a recent Tweet of mine, referring to his appearance on 60 Minutes, stating that if the only solution Ray Dalio has is to raise taxes on the rich, and to hope the government spends the money productively, then he has no solution. So then he referred me to his article, which I read, word for word: Why and How Capitalism Needs to be Reformed, parts 1 and 2. Again, Capitalism does not need to be reformed. What needs to be reformed is Democracy. We need to embrace and re-discover Capitalism and what needs to be reformed is all of the Socialism that has been interjected into Capitalism.
Government Makes It Difficult for Small Businesses to Hire Young People
I told Ray Dalio that I would read his article and I read it and made some notes and I'm going to go over my thoughts now. Number one, right off the bat, Dalio talks about all the jobs he had by the time he was age 12. He came from humble beginnings, he wasn't born wealthy, he is a rags-to-riches story, an American Dream story. By the time his was 12, he made money delivering newspapers, mowing lawns, caddying, and he invested the money he earned in the stock market. The first thing that grabs my attention is, "how many 12-year-olds today have jobs?" Very few young people today have jobs. Why is that? one of the reasons is because the government has made it so difficult for small businesses to hire young people - minimum wage laws, and workmen's comp, disability, unemployment make it difficult for young people to get jobs.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/10/2019 • 1 hour, 5 minutes, 11 seconds
Trump Puts QE4 in Play – Ep. 457
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Rebound Expected in Jobs Report
Stock market in the U.S. continued to grind higher today, although I still believe that this is a bear market rally. The Dow added a little better than 40 points; the NASDAQ up about 47, so a bigger percentage gain there. The S&P was up about 13 points. This was following the release of the March Nonfarm Payrolls numbers - aka the Jobs Report. There was a lot of hope that we would see a rebound in the month of March. Remember, in February, they initially reported just 20,000 jobs created, which was well short of what had been expected. It was probably something close to 200,o00 jobs. And the consensus for March was for 170,000 jobs and we actually got 196,000 jobs.
Pretty Weak Number
That's the first look. So that is, what, 26,000 jobs better than had been expected. The February number was revised upward, but just to 33,000, and I think I remember when this number first came out, that there were a lot of naysayers who were saying, "This is crazy, there is no way this is true, let's wait for the revisions". Well, we've got a revision, and all we did is revise it up to 33,000. So it seems like the number was legitimate. We did have a rebound in the month of March, but 170,000 is not a lot of jobs, considering how few jobs were created in February. In fact, if you average the two months, it's a pretty weak number.
Weakness in Labor Force Participation Rate
The official unemployment rate, that held steady at 3.8%, but the labor force participation rate, which I know a lot of people have been encouraged by, because they see that number notching higher, it dropped back down .o2, from 63.2% to 63%. So that's some weakness there. Also, if you look at the manufacturing jobs, they were looking for a gain of 10,000 jobs. Instead, we got a loss of 6,000 jobs. They took the February gain, which was originally reported at 4,000, and we only gained 1,000. So the markets were looking for an improvement over the original estimate for February; instead, not only did we take February's number down, but instead of improving, we actually went in the other direction and lost manufacturing jobs.
Average Hourly Earnings Posts Sharp Slowdown
If you look at the average hourly earnings, they were looking for a gain of +.2 and we got half that of +.1, and that is a sharp slowdown from the gain the prior month, which was +.4, which was better than had been estimated at the time. So now you average them out, and, again, we're not getting much in the way of earnings growth, although we are seeing a rise in the cost of living.
Average Work Week Up
The average work week was up; it ticked up from 34.4 hours to 34.5 hours. Nonetheless, most of the coverage of the jobs numbers was that is was a good report. It was better than estimates, because they were looking for 170-whatever and they got 190-something, so it was better than estimates.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/6/2019 • 50 minutes, 54 seconds
AOC Right for the Wrong Reasons – Ep. 456
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Recorded April 2, 2019
February Durable Goods Order Declined Slightly Less Than Expected
We had a quiet day in the U.S. stock market today. Not much reaction from a slightly weaker than expected February Durable Goods Orders number that came out before the market opened. They were looking for a weak number; the consensus was for a decline of 1.8% - we got a decline of slightly less than that: 1.6%. They revised the prior month down from +.4% to +.1%, so we declined less, but from a lower number. Overall, slightly weaker. In fact, the Core Capital Goods number was also slightly weaker. They were looking for a rise of .2%; instead, we had a drop of .1% - although they revised the prior month up from .8% to .9%. Still a little weaker on the day.
Lyft Hitting Lows
But the market still seems to be oblivious to the weak data, in fact later in the day we did get the auto sales numbers that were disappointing, as well. A lot of bad news is being routinely overlooked by Wall Street. Lyft, the company that went public on Friday: I discussed the lackluster performance of that IPO on Friday. In fact, most of the commentary that I listened to or saw was positive. They were describing the Lyft IPO as a big success… everything went great… the stock went up… But what concerned me about the stock was not how it went up, but how weakly it closed. It pretty much closed on the low of the day. It had sold off pretty much all day, following the pop on the open.
Lyft Sank into Bear Market on Day 2
The stock came public at $72 and it immediately traded as high as $88.6, but closed the first day of trading at $78.29. Still above the $72 opening, but anybody who bought the opening print was down. Then it got clobbered on Monday and it fell again today. It only closed down slightly. It closed relatively near the highs of the day, but the low was $66.10. That's 25% below the peak price on Friday. So that's a bear market. In fact, officially Lyft sank into a bear market on its second day as a public company. So that bear market got even worse today. The stock is now better than 8% below its IPO price.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/3/2019 • 56 minutes, 51 seconds
Fed Gives Stocks a Q1 Lyft – Ep. 455
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
A Gift from the Federal Reserve
The Dow Jones closed out its best quarter since 1998 with a 211 point gain: 25,928.68 was the close. The Dow, on the quarter up 10.3% - the broader averages doing even better. The S&P 500 rose 12.3% on the quarter. The Russell 2000 - 13.8%, and the NASDAQ 15.6% gain on the quarter. of course, the entire rally was a gift from the Federal Reserve. Had the Federal Reserve stayed on its course, indicating that more rate hikes were coming; 3 or 4 this year; had the Fed continued with its planned auto-pilot reduction in the size of its enormous balance sheet, the stock market would be considerably lower. In fact, we probably would have added to the losses experienced in the 4th quarter of last year with additional losses this year. But the Fed, as I had been predicting for many years, reacted to the weakness in the stock market and the weakness in the economy by reversing course.
Bigger Cuts Ahead then the Market is Currently Pricing In
Now the Fed hasn't actually cut rates yet, although the markets are already anticipating rate cuts and not additional rate hikes. Where the markets got it wrong is that there will be much bigger cuts than what the market is currently pricing in. I think the market is looking at maybe 25 or 50 basis points of cuts. In fact, we're going all the way back to zero. A reduction in interest rates of 25 basis points or 50 basis points would do absolutely nothing.
Quackery: Substituting a Bubble for the Illusion of Economic Growth
I think the Fed, again, is going to have to go all the way down to zero once it decides that's what it's going to do. But had the Fed not changed course, the markets and the economy would be quite a bit weaker. Although not weaker - more air would have come out of the bubble. That's all the Fed has been doing with its monetary policy is sustaining a bubble. Allowing the bubble to get bigger and bigger, while preventing the underlying structural problems from being solved. Even though those solutions involve some short-term pain, as a trade-off for long-term gain, it is a very healthy process that would be good for the economy in the long run. But, instead, the Fed has interfered with the market's medicine and substituted its own quackery - substituting a bubble to create the illusion of economic growth as the economy is actually worsening.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/30/2019 • 56 minutes, 21 seconds
Fear Is Not a Factor – Ep. 454
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 – 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Recorded March 26, 2019
Feigned Attempt to Shrink the Balance Sheet
I am finally back on land, having spent 9 days at sea, at the Investors Summit at Sea. I've been doing this annually now, this is my 7th time doing that. I am now back, technically one calendar year older. I want to catch up a little bit on what happened in the market later last week. I did do that one podcast from the ship following the complete capitulation on the part of the Federal Reserve, basically calling off all of the rate hikes that anybody thought may have been coming for the remainder of the year. Also calling off their feigned attempt to shrink the balance sheet - quantitative tightening. The balance sheet will barely shrink between now and the end of the summer, when it will stop shrinking altogether; if they can even keep up the pretense for that long.
Nobody Appreciates What the Fed Has Done
If you remember, when I was forecasting that this was going to happen, at the very beginning, in fact even before the Fed began to shrink its balance sheet, before the Fed raised rates for the first time, I said that if they ever tried to normalize interest rates, if they ever tried to shrink the balance sheet, they would ultimately abort the process - that they would fail in their mission. They could not complete the journey. It would create a huge problem for the Fed, which up until this point, it hasn't happened yet. Nobody really appreciates what the Fed has done.
There Will Be an Excuse
A lot of the people in the investment community are still buying at face value what the Fed is saying. But remember, when I said the Fed was going to announce that it was going to stop the rate hikes or call off quantitative tightening, I said at the time, that they were going to come up with an excuse. That the Fed was not going to tell the markets the truth about why it had aborted this mission - it was just going to make up an excuse. The Fed had to pretend that they could actually do this - that they were going to normalize interest rates, that they were going to shrink their balance sheet but something prevented them from doing it.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/27/2019 • 51 minutes, 48 seconds
Fed’s Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words – Ep. 453
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Recording Today's Podcast from Willemstad, Curaçao
I am recording today's podcast from my cabin on a cruise ship, which is right now docked on the Dutch island of Curaçao, which is about 35 miles north of Venezuela. I've never actually been to this island, even though I live in the Caribbean now, in Puerto Rico, there are still many places in the Caribbean that I have not visited. I really wish I'd come here sooner. I had no idea how beautiful this island was. Not really the beaches, so much, although I'm sure they are equally spectacular. I didn't go to the beach. I just spent the day walking around town. But it's probably the most charming Caribbean island I've been to, as far as the architecture and the way the town is laid out - how beautiful the streets are, and the buildings and how clean they are. It really seems like a nice place to live. I think there is a permanent population of about 160,000 people.
The Fed's Decision
I want to spend my limited time on today's podcast talking about the Federal Reserve's decision today and the press conference. I did get back on the boat in time to watch the press conference live, and I do want to limit today's podcast to that discussion.
Before the Fed announced its decision on interest rates - nobody expected a rate hike, and we did not get a rate hike, but before the Fed announced today's decision, the markets were on the defensive. Earlier in the day, Donald Trump had mentioned that he now thinks that the tariffs on Chinese imports, or on Americans who want to buy Chinese imports, may remain in effect for a much longer period of time; indicating that maybe this great trade deal is not as close as the President was letting on in the past.
Unexpected Dovishness
So the markets sold off. I think the Dow, maybe at the lows was down about 170-some odd points, not exactly sure, but then, when the Fed announced its decision not to hike, the market erased all of those losses, and I think at one point we were up close to triple digits. Nobody was expecting a hike; I think they were expecting the Fed to be dovish, but I don't think they were expecting the Fed to be this dovish.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/21/2019 • 27 minutes, 25 seconds
Powell Tells Nation There’s Nothing to Fear – Ep. 452
Recorded March 13, 2019
VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Big Drop in Boeing: Opportunity to buy into Dip
The Dow is continuing to rebound this week, up 148 points today - 25,702 was the close. In fact, the Dow would be higher if it weren't for an about 11% decline in Boeing so far this week. I am going to talk on this podcast about the controversy surrounding Boeing and their 737 Max 8 aircraft. But for now I want to talk just about the markets. I actually think that it was the big gap down on Monday morning, where Boeing first reacted to the news of the plane crash in Ethiopia and the Dow was down better than 200 points - all of it the big drop in Boeing. I think traders looked at that news as an opportunity to buy into the dip. I think you saw people rushing in at that point. That kind of marked a short term bottom in the market and now we're back up around the highs of this bear market correction.
Smarter Money Selling into this Rally
I do believe that we're going to be running into resistance again at this area - but that was probably an opportunity for some people, they saw that dip and they rushed in and they bought other stocks. Typically there's some kind of news event that would coincide with some type of inflection point in the market. I don't think it's a significant low; I just think it is a low in an ongoing process, this bear market rally, this correction in the bear market is not ending quickly, but I do believe it is ending. I think the smarter money is selling into this rally.
Retail Sales: December was not a Fluke
The economic news - a couple of items that came out this week were a little better than estimated. But look at the Retail Sales number that came out on Monday. That one, to me, still confirms that the numbers that we got in December were not a fluke. A lot of people initially dismissed the weak number in December. The initial report for December Retail Sales was -1.2. They were looking for a rebound in January and the got one. They were only looking for a rebound of .1 and they got a rebound of .2. They actually revised the prior month that was originally reported as down 1.2, that moved to down 1.6. So an even bigger decline December than was originally reported. Remember, this is a 10-year low.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/14/2019 • 54 minutes, 30 seconds
Whistling Past the Stagflation Graveyard – Ep. 451
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Market Down Before the Bell
A late-day rally wasn't enough to bring the U.S. stock market indexes into the black on the day. In fact, this is the first down week that the U.S. stock market has had in 2019. Something tells me it's certainly not going to be the last. The market was down from the bell this morning. Even before the bell, if you look at the futures, even before we got the jobs number - the February jobs report (which I will get into a little later in this podcast) the markets were already down. The Dow Futures, I think were off about 125, 135, something like that. Normally, the markets are not making a big move in either direction before the jobs report comes out, because people don't know what the number is going to be, and generally it's a market-moving number, so the markets are typically pretty flat before we get the number.
Trade Deal Up in the Air
This time, the markets were down. Based on rumors that the trade deal with China may be delayed. People were talking about this Mar-a-Lago Summit that was going to take place later in the month, and now I was reading about how there may not be a deal in time, and the Chinese may not want to go to Mar-a-Lago, and so the whole thing is up in the air. So people were getting a little nervous about the trade deal. So that's why the markets were already selling off, plus, I think the Chinese markets had been weaker overnight. Trump or someone else Tweeted out that Trump had said, as soon as we signed the trade deal, the markets are really going to spike. Apparently, nobody has explained to Donald Trump how the stock market works. Buy the rumor sell the fact. Maybe the President has more experience in the real estate market, not understanding how the stock market generally anticipates news, and sells off on the realization of that news.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/9/2019 • 54 minutes, 46 seconds
America’s Twin Deficits Hitting Record Highs – Ep. 450
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Wall of Overhead Resistance
It looks like the correction in the U.S. stock market, and by correction I am referring to the rally, the first correction in what I believe is a new bear market - but it's looking like that correction may have finally run its course as the stock market has run into a wall of overhead resistance. In fact, the technical action on Monday was quite telling, because early in the morning we opened quite a bit higher - 100 points or so higher, and then had a 350-point reversal to the downside. The catalyst for the initial rally was yet another rumor of an impending trade deal with China. And it seems to me that we've basically run out of the ability to continue to rally the market by regurgitating the same news story over and over again.
Now They've Sold the Last Rumor
Remember I was saying that, when we actually have a trade deal, with China, my thinking would be it would be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact"? Well the problem is, traders have already bought that rumor over and over again and that they may have already sold the last rumor. They can't wait for the fact. They've just had so many rumors, that now they've sold the last rumor, and it doesn't even matter if we get a deal - the market is going to sell off. Of course, if we get no deal at all, then the market could sell off even more, because a great deal has already been priced in to the market. But there isn't going to be a great deal. There will be a deal, there will be nothing great about it; there will probably be nothing substantive about it. Expectations have been raised so high, which is another reason that I don't think Trump is as good a negotiator as he pretends.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/7/2019 • 35 minutes, 35 seconds
Are Debt-Laden Consumers Finally Tapped Out? – Ep. 449
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Market Keeps Rallying on Regurgitated News
The Dow Jones started off the final day of the week with a pretty strong rally; we were up a little better than 200 points earlier in the day. Then we got some weaker than expected economic data which I will get to a bit later, and the market sold off. The Dow never quite went negative, and then we rallied back and the Dow managed to end the week back above 26,000 with a 110 point gain. In fact all of the major indexes were positive on the day. What caused the early morning rally was optimism, once again, that a trade deal with China is about to be signed, and it's kind of amazing how often the markets can bite on this and keep rallying on regurgitated news, because, we've heard this before.
According to Trump the Chinese Are Going to Pay, but According to Economics, Americans Are Going to Pay
As I have said on this podcast before, we are going to get a trade deal. A trade deal with China is inevitable. The only positive about the trade deal is going to be that it takes the prospect of a self-inflicted wound off the table. That's the only good thing. If we have a trade deal, then Trump is not going to increase tariffs on American businesses and on American consumers. That is the empty threat that is out there: "Hey, we're going to force China to the negotiation table because, if they don't, we're going to erect these tariffs, which, according to Trump the Chinese are going to pay, but according to economics, Americans are going to pay. That's one of the reasons that we can't afford to actually use this weapon that we are threatening the Chinese with.
Promising the Moon
In fact, one of the reasons that you had all this optimism about this new deal was Larry Kudlow was out talking about how great the new deal is going to be - how this is going to be a huge win for America, it's a fantastic deal, it's a boon, it's better than we could have expected, it is all-encompassing... He has really raised expectations. Doesn't Kudlow know anything about the expectation game? The idea is to under-promise so you can over-deliver. It seems like we're destined for failure here because everybody in the Trump administration is promising the moon.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/2/2019 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 19 seconds
Powell Puts It to Congress – Ep. 448
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Jerome Powell Wades into the Deficit Debate
This year Fed chairman Jerome Powell made his obligatory visit to Capital Hill, where he spoke to Senators and Representatives about monetary policy. Of course, this really just amounts to a press conference for Democrats and Republicans to either talk up the economy or talk down the economy, depending on who's got the White House. Trump is the President, so you have a lot of Democrats trying to talk about why the economy is actually weak and trying to get the Fed Chairman to say something negative about the economy, or negative about President Trump. And, of course you have the Republicans trying to get Powell to validate how great the economy is, and how Trump's policies are helping the economy.
Republicans Aren't Willing to Recognize Problems
The biggest problem with all this is that the biggest promoters of how great the economy is are the Republicans. These are supposedly the defenders of capitalism and they're saying everything is great, everything is booming, and you have the Democrats, particularly the Democratic Socialists saying that there are a lot of problems. And the Republicans are saying that these problems don't exist.
Democratic Socialists Have no Idea Why the Economy is Screwed Up
Unfortunately, when it hits the fan, when we end up in a recession, and I've been making this point over and over again, Capitalism is going to be thoroughly discredited because the people who advocate it were oblivious to the problems. They said everything was fine. Now the Socialists will appear to be the ons who had it right - even though they were right for the wrong reasons. They have no idea why the economy is screwed up, and their plans to solve the problems will just screw it up even more. But the voters aren't going to know that. They're going to say, "Oh, these Republicans who talk about Capitalism, they were wrong. They didn't realize what a mess it was. These Democratic Socialists, they knew there was a problem, so let's vote for them."
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/28/2019 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 42 seconds
Fed Indicates Tolerance for Higher Inflation – Ep. 447
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Another "Greatest Deal Ever"
'The Dow rose a little over 180 points today, closing above 26,000 -26,031.81, to be exact, for the first time during this bear market rally. I still believe that we are in a bear market rally, not a new bull market. the catalyst for today for today's stock market strength, and it was across the board; the markets were strong from the opening bell to the closing bell. I think the high in the Dow was maybe just above 200; we sold off intra-day. But the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 were also higher on, again, optimism that there is going to be a trade deal between the U.S. and China. Donald Trump is saying that he is negotiating the greatest deal ever, which is something that I have been saying, regardless of what the deal ends up being, Trump is going to say "It is the Greatest Deal Ever".
What Helps China Is an Appreciating Yuan
But there was a lot of attention being paid to the deal, a lot of stories coming out that were close to a deal. In fact, I read that they do have a agreement on exchange rates. Currencies, obviously the U.S. likes to accuse China of being a currency manipulator, and so maybe there's some type of deal that says they won't manipulate their currency - they won't use their currency as a weapon. Which is something China wasn't going to do, anyway. To the extent that we win any concessions from the Chinese, where they agree not to weaken their currency, that basically amounts to nothing. In fact, a weak currency is bad for China. What helps China is an appreciating Yuan.
Today's "Fedspeak" on Inflation
More important than the talk about the trade deal was a lot of "Fedspeak" today. You had a lot of Fed officials that were talking; James Bullard, Clarida, John Williams - they were all talking. The real common theme today was inflation. I have been talking about this for years. How was the Federal Reserve going to basically respond to inflation above their 2% target? The real rate of inflation has probably been above 2%, in fact I'm confident that it's been above 2% every year.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/23/2019 • 53 minutes, 3 seconds
QE is Officially Debt Monetization – Ep. 446
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
FOMC Minutes Describe Abrupt About-Face
This afternoon we got the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting which took place a few weeks ago. This was the meeting where the Federal Reserve did what is now being described as probably the biggest policy shift in the history of the Fed. This was really an abrupt about-face, where they went from "Everything is great; we're going to keep on raising interest rates, and we are on auto-pilot - we are going to let the balance sheet continue to decline." All of a sudden, now they're "patient", meaning they're not going to raise rates at all in the foreseeable future, and not only is the balance sheet reduction program no longer on auto pilot, but it is now going to end prematurely sometime this year.
Fed Balance Sheet North of $4 Trillion
Of course, the balance sheet is still north of $4 trillion, and if the reduction program comes to an end this year, you're still going to be talking about a balance sheet $3.5 to $4 trillion in size. This would mean that almost all of the mortgages and treasuries which the Federal Reserve purchased in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis as part of its Quantitative Easing Programs, 1,2&3. Almost all of that debt will remain on its balance sheet after the Fed has finished shrinking it. Also, FOMC officials are now talking about Quantitative Easing once again as just another tool in the Fed's tool box. It's no longer something that will pulled out for an emergency, it's just going to be a normal policy tool for the Fed to deal with recession. Of course, that's going to be their main tool, given that this next recession is going to start when interest rates are at 2.25%. So there is not a lot of room for the Fed to try to artificially stimulate the economy when it hardly has any room to reduce rates.
Quantitative Easing is Debt Monetization
Of course, what does that mean about the Fed's balance sheet? That means the balance sheet will ultimately be much higher than it was when it began its current Operation Quantitative Tightening. We will be higher than we were before it started. All this does is confirm what I've been saying all along, that Quantitative Easing is Debt Monetization.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/21/2019 • 1 hour, 1 minute, 5 seconds
The Real National Emergency is the National Debt – Ep. 445
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Market Rallies on Old News
The U.S. stock market continues to rally on basically the exact same news story that keeps on getting replayed. Today, it was the absence of another government shutdown. I guess now, this is final when it comes to no more government shutdowns, although that should have been obvious to everybody when Trump caved the last time and decided to pay everybody and temporarily end the shutdown. I said on my podcast at that time that that was it; that there was no way that there was going to be another government shutdown - yet the market continues to celebrate when they think that the shutdown's not going to happen.
A National Emergency for the Wall
Well now they know for sure it's not going to happen. Everything's signed, it's a done deal and Trump is getting his wall anyway because he has now declared a national emergency, and so now because it's a national emergency, we are now going to pull these funds from other parts of the budget and we are going to build the wall.
The National Debt is the Real National Emergency
Of course, the real national emergency is not the lack of a wall, the failure to build the wall, but building up the national debt. The $22 trillion national debt. We eclipsed that dubious milestone earlier in the week. And again, when you talk about the national debt at $22 trillion, we're talking about the tip of a huge iceberg. This is just the funded portion of the debt. This is where the U.S. sells a bond and somebody owns that bond.
The Tip of the Iceberg
It doesn't include liabilities like what the government owes for Social Security, or guaranteed bank deposits, or mortgages or student loans - that's not there. Those are contingent liabilities. They're just as real. They're not even part of the national debt. So, when you look at all the liabilities that the U.S. government is on the hook for, you're talking about well over $100 trillion - so $20 trillion is maybe d5 or 10 percent of the debt. But that debt is the real national emergency.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/16/2019 • 55 minutes, 47 seconds
GND Plus MMT Equals a Marriage Made in Hell – Ep. 444
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
The 7th Best Start Ever for the S&P 500
The Dow was up 372 points today, continuing the bear market rally. In fact, this is the best start for a year in almost 30 years - 28 years to be exact. I think it is the 7th best start ever for the S&P 500. Now I think the other 6 starts that were better; 3 of those happened during rather dubious circumstances. Two occurred during the Great Depression, and one of them happened in 1987, and we all know how that year ended up. So sometimes getting off to a good start doesn't necessarily mean that the year is going to finish strong, or the year, itself, is going to be a prosperous year. Again, I think the main reason that the market is so strong early this year is, A) because of the sharp decline we had at the end of last year and B) because the Federal Reserve came in to save the market precisely the way I had forecasted for many years.
How Many Times Can the Market Rally on the Same Good News?
We had a lot of news today that was supposedly good news which provided the extra catalyst for the market. The question, of course, is, "How many times can the market rally on the same good news? One of the pieces of good news was the fact that it looks like maybe there is some kind of compromise on the border that will avert a second government shutdown, and that is supposedly good news. Of course, we've been having this type of good news over and over again.
Also, on the trade front, there were some rumors that the negotiations were going well (some of these rumors started by Trump), so when the market hears that, and that they will probably extend the deadline. If the negotiations were really going great, they wouldn't have to extend the deadline.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/13/2019 • 45 minutes, 27 seconds
The Socialist Insanity of a Green Utopia – Ep. 443
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Disguising "Red" Goals in Green Wrapping
I'm still here in my hotel room in Orlando at the Money Show, but before I went downstairs on this Saturday morning, I wanted to record a podcast to address the issues raised by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC, as she is now being referred to - I guess I'm just going to call her the bartender for simplicity. Well, anyway, the bartender-turned-congresswoman has released the laughable details of her "Green New Deal". Of course, the Green New Deal really lays bare the smokescreen that I have always believed existed with respect to extreme environmentalism. I've always thought that it masked a real desire for socialism; that the real goal of some of these radical environmentalists was socialism: nationalizing the means of production, getting government control. But they couldn't come out and say that. They had to disguise their "red" goals with green wrapping.
This Bartender is Advocating Fascism
They had to approach it as an environmental issue;"Hey, we have to save the planet!" and, yeah, who isn't in favor of that? Everybody wants clean air and clean water. So the way the Socialists really try to wedge their way into the mainstream was with this veneer of Environmentalism. But when you actually read the "Green New Deal", it blows all the smoke away. It really lays bare the Socialist agenda of environmentalists. Really, that's what the Green New Deal is all about. It's Red. It's all about turning America into a Socialist economy, or more particularly, a Fascist economy, because Fascism is really the form of Socialism that best describes what this bartender is advocating.
The Government Taking over the Means of Production
I have said from the beginning when Ocasio-Cortez ( the bartender) describes herself as a Democratic Socialist - "I'm not a real Socialist, I am a DEMOCRATIC Socialist - putting the word "Democratic before something bad doesn't make something bad into something good. If you read this proposal, it is pure, unadulterated Socialism. It is about the government taking over the means of production. The bartender actually believes that the government, by micromanaging the economy, it will succeed in creating prosperity. This is what every Socialist who has risen to power, rather by force or by vote, has promised the public. They always promise pie-in-the sky prosperity, all these great things that the government is going to provide. In order to get people to buy into this, they have to create a false threat of global warming.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/9/2019 • 50 minutes, 56 seconds
Misstate of the Union – Ep. 442
See Peter in person at the Orlando Money Show
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
Celebrate Peter's birthday with him on the 2019 Investor Summit at Sea!
Visit schiffbirthday.com
State of the Union Not Addressed
Last night President Trump delivered what purported to be a State of the Union address but really, Donald Trump talked about a lot of things, but he didn't really speak at all about the State of the Union. Bernie Sanders recorded his own response. He didn't do the official Democratic response; that was done by Stacey Abrams, the woman who ran for and lost the Governorship of Georgia in 2018. She was a Democratic candidate. I think the Democrats are grooming her probably to run for Senate in 2020 so they wanted to put her up on that stage and shine the spotlight on her.
Bernie Did a Better Job of Laying out Economic Problems
But Bernie Sanders delivered his own response on YouTube, and Bernie Sanders did a much better job of describing the problems in the U.S. economy, that Donald Trump ignored in his State of the Union address. He spoke a little bit about the economy; he said we're having an "economic miracle" here in the Unites States, that we were the envy of the world, the hottest economy in the world. Everything is great, and theoretically the only thing that could screw it up is if the Democrats keep going after him with this ridiculous investigation, but everything is doing great, which, of course is a bunch of nonsense.
Socialism, However, Won't Work
Bernie Sanders did a much better job of presenting the facts. He pointed out that maybe, if Donald Trump is talking about his rich friends at Mar-a-Lago Country Club - for those guys, the economy is great. But for average Americans, the economy is lousy and Sanders describes some of the problems that Donald Trump overlooked or ignored when he gave his address. This is going to be the problem for the Republicans in 2020 when they run for re-election, talking about how great the economy is, they don't have a chance. It's the Democrats who will be feeling the pain of the voters and coming up with their own solution. The problem is, the solutions that Bernie Sanders is putting forth, Socialism, aren't going to work.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/6/2019 • 1 hour, 4 minutes, 22 seconds
Truth Is the Real Victim – Ep. 441
See Peter in person at The MoneyShow Orlando
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
Stronger than Expected Jobs Number
We actually got a bunch of economic data released today; apparently the shutdown no longer is affecting some of these newer releases, although we still have a bunch of old data that has yet to be released. I have a feeling that there is a lot of weak economic data that has yet to come out. Today we got some stronger than expected data including the January jobs number. They were looking for 158,000 jobs to be created, which would follow the 312,000 number that we got for December, which was a surprisingly strong number. So the consensus was that we would have a weaker number in January; but we ended up with 304,000 jobs allegedly being created in January.
December Jobs Number Revised Down 90,000 Jobs
But they now tell us that we didn't create 312,000 jobs in December - we only created 222,000 jobs, which is still a pretty big number, but it's 90,000 less. That's a huge revision, to think that they were off by 90,000 jobs. Maybe they're off by 90,000 jobs in January. I guess we'll have to wait another month to find out. But that number was much bigger than what was expected; and of course, even if you take into consideration the revisions, it was still a better net number than what the markets were looking for.
U6 Went from 7.6% to 8.1%
The official unemployment rate rose to 4%. Part of that was because the Labor Force Participation Rate continued to notch up. It went from 63.1 to 63.2, and since more people are now looking for work, those people are now officially unemployed. But a bigger story than the official rate is the U6 rate, which is far more accurate if you want to get a real look at the U.S. labor market. Of course, it's not 100% accurate because it only includes discouraged workers who have discouraged for under a year. So it doesn't capture any of the long-term unemployed, which are a big part of the American labor market. But the U6 rate includes the short-term discouraged workers, but also the people who are working part time, but who really want to work full time. We had a surge, like half a million part-time jobs were added according to household survey during the month, so a lot of people working part time - they probably want to work full time, but they are settling for part time work. That meant that the U6 number went from 7.6 to 8.1.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/2/2019 • 47 minutes, 3 seconds
Powell Pause Won’t be Enough – Ep. 440
See Peter in person at the The MoneyShow Orlando
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
Monetary Drug Pushers
Earlier today, the monetary drug pushers at the Federal Reserve gave the addicts on Wall Street exactly the fix that they have been craving. In fact, not only did Powell deliver exactly what the doctor ordered with respect to interest rates, saying the Fed was going to remain "patient", probably indefinitely, with respect to another rate hike, but Powell also made it clear that the balance sheet wind-down, otherwise known as quantitative tightening, was off of auto-pilot. In fact, based on what Powell said, I would be surprised to see any significant reductions in the Fed's balance sheet from here. Not surprising, the market rallied as a result of getting what they wanted out of the Fed. At one point, I think, the Dow was up better than 500 points, but it did close up 434 points - back above 25,000 - 25,014.86, to be precise.
Quantitative Easing and a Return to Zero
But, you know, just like any addict, they can never get enough. I think that soon the markets are going to be demanding a lot more from the Fed than just a cessation of rate hikes and a commitment not to shrink the balance sheet. I think what the addicts are going to require is going to be more quantitative easing and a return to zero, and that is exactly what the Federal Reserve is going to provide, once it realizes that that's what's necessary. Of course, I don't think that is going to work; I think that is going to deliver the overdose that I have been warning about since the Fed first went down this mistaken policy road. I knew that we would ultimately end up exactly where we're headed. It's just that the markets still haven't figured this out.
Markets Need to Focus on the Why
The markets really need to be focusing on the Why. Not just looking at what the Fed is doing, but why the Fed is doing it, and what it actually means about the underlying health of the U.S economy or the efficacy of prior Fed policy. Now if you listened to the press conference, or even just read the prepared remarks, the Federal Reserve wants to pretend that everything is still great - that the U.S. economy is still in great shape. In fact, the Fed wants to pretend the U.S. economy is just a good as it was when it hiked rates during the September meeting, let alone the
December meeting.
Continued Rate Hikes and Auto Pilot QT
Going back to September, when the Fed was saying that they were going to do maybe 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2019, and that the balance sheet unwind was on auto-pilot, that the Fed was going to set that aside and sell off about $50 billion worth of treasuries and mortgages every month, just forget about it, not even worry about it and that the Fed was going to simply focus on interest rates.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/31/2019 • 48 minutes, 14 seconds
Government Shutdown Ends, Fed Capitulation Continues – Ep. 439
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Downwardly Moving Expectations
The record-breaking partial U.S. government shutdown looks like it has now come to an end. Donald Trump today announcing that he is going to be re-opening the government for three weeks, and during that time we will have negotiations regarding funding for the border wall, the barrier, the smart wall - whatever it is being called now. Donald Trump seems to be downwardly moving his expectations of what that wall would constitute, how much terrain it would cover, but at the end of the day, I don't believe that whatever compromise we get 3 weeks from now is going to include any type of funding for the wall.
Democrats Trying to Teach Trump a Lesson
And I think that the President talking about potentially shutting the government down again in 3 weeks if the wall money is not there, I think that's an empty threat; I think that is a bluff that would be easily called by the Democrats. If you look at the Democratic press conference that followed the Trump announcement, Chuck Schumer basically said,"I hope the President learned his lesson." I'm surprised he even said that because it is admission that the Democrats were trying to teach Trump a lesson. That is, in fact, probably what they did.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/26/2019 • 58 minutes, 50 seconds
Socialism’s Slippery Slope – Ep. 438
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Broader Averages Up
The Dow Jones rose 171 points today recovering a little better than half of yesterday's 300 point decline, helped by some better than expected earnings in both IBM and Proctor and Gamble. The broader averages is also up, but not nearly as much, because of the impact from those stocks; obviously not as strong. In fact, the NASDAQ, and even the S&P 500 all took out yesterday's lows intra-day, but still managed to eke out small gains - actually the Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day.
Dow Transports Down All Day
But the Dow Transports were down all day. They didn't even recover; they closed off the lows, adding about 48 points to yesterday's decline. But everybody in the financial media, in fact everybody at Davos (I'm going to talk about that in a minute) but everybody seems to be completely forgetting the bear market. Ignoring the fact that we went into a bear market and pretending that either we're back in a correction of the bull market or we've actually left correction territory, as if the bull market is still intact, and that bear market that we had never even really took place.
I Wouldn't Bet on the Fact That the Bear Market Is Over
Now, it is possible that the bear market is over. I am not saying it's impossible. It seems to me again that it is extremely unlikely that the longest bull market in history is going to be followed by the shortest bear market in history. I guess it could happen but I wouldn't want to bet on it. A lot of people seem to be betting on it. To me, again, the rally that we had made a lot of sense. After all, the Fed came in and did exactly what I have been saying it is going to do since before they raised rates for the first time.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/24/2019 • 1 hour, 3 minutes, 3 seconds
Lies of the Left – Ep. 437
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
High School Students Smeared by Mainstream Media
I am still out in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Resource Conference. I will be back in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. But I wanted to take a little time out to record this podcast here in my hotel room to address just one topic. And that has to do with this viral video that was making the rounds early yesterday that purported to show a group of high school students taunting an elderly Native American. As soon as this thing went out, spreading throughout the internet, the conduct of the high school students was condemned by everybody.
Fanning the Flames
All the celebrities and the media, everybody on the left we out there condemning the actions of these kids. In fact even the school - they were from an all-boys Catholic high school. Of course, there is nothing racist about the fact that the high school was all boys; there are all-girl Catholic high schools. The idea being that maybe you can educate kids better if they are concentrating on their studies, rather than members of the opposite sex. But even the school administrators or the principal came out and said they condemn the conduct of their students and they're going to look into this and that this does not reflect their values. Of course they're very tolerant, they're not racist, they don't discriminate. Maybe they will even expel these boys. Of course, that comment actually helped fuel the fire.
This Whole Thing is Made Up
I really wish that people would not be so quick to throw people under the bus when confronted by this feigned outrage from the left. This whole thing is just made up. If the government had been skewing this with would be called propaganda. But it is not the government; it is the media elites, it is the left that has concocted a fake story. They have altered the facts to conform to their agenda.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/21/2019 • 27 minutes, 58 seconds
In Bear Markets Rallies Are Corrections – Ep. 436
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
It Is Not a New Bull Market
The U.S. stock market averages continued the bear market correction - the correction actually extended for another week. We capped a strong week with a strong gain today across the board. But this is a correction. It is not a new bull market. But of course, if you watch stations like CNBC you wouldn't know that. All day today all they kept talking about on CNBC was that the market is now out of correction territory, meaning that it is no longer down 10% from the highs, and so we're no longer in a correction.
We Entered a Bear Market
First of all, we didn't enter a correction - we entered a bear market. Now, bear markets have corrections, too. They're called rallies, except people at CNBC don't get that. They think the only correction is a move down in a bull market. Now this bull market went on for 10 years, so a lot of these guys don't remember the last bear market, and it wasn't even that long. A lot of these bear markets have been very short. They decline 40-50% and then the Fed was able to come in and save the day. But people don't get that we are in a bear market now. We haven't made new highs, so any rally is a correction. Certainly a rally of more than 10% - that's the same definition for the downward correction in a bull market. So if you want to apply that definition to an upward correction in a bear market - we are in a correction. This is a pretty big correction, helping the bear market fall a slope of hope.
Russell 2000 Had Best Annual Start Since 1987
The Dow was up around 330 points today, back up to 24,706.35. In fact, if you look at the Dow Jones year to date, we're up almost 6% so far this year. Strong move. We're not even finished with the month of January. Of course we have a holiday weekend, s the markets will not be open on Monday celebrating Martin Luther King Day. But there are still quite a few days left in January. The NASDAQ composite is actually outdoing the Dow, it is now up almost 8% on the year and the biggest gainer is the Russell 2000. It's up almost 10%. In fact the Russell 2000 is having its best annual start since 1987. Now, of course, 1987 didn't end well for the Russell 2000 or any of the stock markets. That was the year of the stock market crash in October.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/19/2019 • 50 minutes, 54 seconds
The Eye of the Financial Hurricane – Ep. 435
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
The Eye of the Financial Hurricane
U.S. stock markets continue to bask in the eye of this financial hurricane. Remember, we ended the hurricane following the September rate hike, and if you recall I titled my podcast, "The Hike that Broke the Camel's Back", and that's what really began the sell-off in the market. We had this horrific fourth quarter, the worst December since 1931. It may have ended up being the worst December ever had it not been saved by that last-minute Santa Claus rally - the biggest Boxing Day (Day after Christmas) rally ever, which followed the worst Christmas Eve in stock market history.
The Fed's New Dovish Outlook
But we entered the eye when the Federal Reserve came out and rescued the markets by backtracking on their previously indicated path of continued rate hikes and quantitative tightening. In fact, we had a lot of people come out this week from the Federal Reserve today, again, reiterating their new dovish outlook. Everybody is a dove. There are no more stock market hawks. Like there are no atheists in a foxhole - in a bear market there are not hawks, there are only doves. That included people who are no longer on the Federal Reserve. Fmr. Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen came out yesterday, and she said that she thinks it is very possible that the December rate hike is the last rate hike in the cycle. She's right about that. It's not just very possible, it's probable. Yesterday we had Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that the Fed is going to raise rates fewer times than they had indicated in their most recent press conference. Of course, by then, they had indicated two rate hikes. Now he is saying they are going to raise rates fewer than two, which could be one, but it could also be zero.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/16/2019 • 55 minutes, 46 seconds
Blind Fed Leading Blind Investors over a Financial Cliff – Ep. 434
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Everything up on the Week Except Treasury Bonds and the Dollar
The stock market ended a positive week on a little bit of a down note; all of the major averages had small losses today - well off the lows of the day. The market tried a couple of times to sell off but the dips were bought on each occasion and we ended up closing near the highs of the day, even though we were down on the day. Pretty much everything was up on the week except treasury bonds and the dollar. The dollar fell, long-term interest rates rose. Gold was up. Oil was the big winner, even though it was down close to a dollar a barrel today, we closed right around $52; up better than 8% on the week.
All Fed - No Change in Fundamentals
But what has been driving the rally has all been the Fed. There's nothing fundamental that has changed about the U.S. economy or about the U.S. stock market other than the "Powell Put" is now back in play. In fact, it's not just Powell putting that out there, he has been joined by a chorus of central bankers who came out today, yesterday, all throughout the week - they're all now reading from the same dovish playbook. They've got their marching orders and they are talking up the market. Now talking how the Fed has to listen to the market, be careful and take its cues from the market. It used to be that the market didn't matter. The Fed was going to do its thing and the markets are going to do what they are going to do. And it didn't take long for that to change.
The Fed Can Not Allow the House of Cards to Fall
Of course, I've been saying that all along; that the Fed was not going to allow this house of cards that they deliberately inflated to just fall apart. Now they had to pretend that they didn't care about the markets but, of course the whole time, they were hoping the markets actually didn't go down because they didn't want to have to reverse policy. They wanted to talk tough even though they didn't have a stick.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/12/2019 • 1 hour, 2 minutes, 8 seconds
Markets Running out of Good News to Anticipate – Ep. 433
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast - Episode 433
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
A Bear Market Correction
U.S. stocks continue their correction by moving higher yet again today. Remember, when you have a bull market, the corrections are down, because you're correcting the upward trend by moving backward. In a bear market, it's the opposite. You correct a downward trend by retracing upwards. That's what we're doing now. I think this is the first rally in this bear market, so this rally is, in fact, a correction.
Powell is now "Super Dove"
I think the U.S. stock market is off to its best annual start in about a decade; certainly the NASDAQ is up I think not quite 5% - 4.7% on the year. Of course, what got the correction going was the complete 180 by Powell in that round table discussion, where he basically reversed everything he was saying and became the "Super Dove" when it comes to rate hikes. So the market is now pricing out many rate hikes it had probably priced in and that was the catalyst to really get the market going.
Markets Have Not Priced in End of Quantitative Tightening
Of course, what hasn't been priced in yet are the rate cuts or the end of the quantitative tightening program and the re-launching of quantitative easing. All that is coming. The markets just aren't there yet. They just can't see beyond where we are now. They're looking at this mountain and they don't see the valley on the other side.
Interest Rates High Relative to Mountain of Debt
Again, it's not the rate hikes in the future that were going to cause the recession, the rate hikes from the past have already guaranteed a recession, even though interest rates in absolute terms and relative to where they've been historically are still very low, they are not very low considering the enormity of the debt that we now have; that we didn't have historically. So when you have this mountain of debt, a historically large amount of debt, you need a historically low rate. Even though the rates we have now are still low, they're not as low as they used to be and they're not as low as they need to be.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/10/2019 • 46 minutes, 6 seconds
Dovish Fed Won’t Fly – Ep. 432
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Big Move Up Today
Another big move today in the U.S. stock market except this time the big move was to the upside, more than eradicating yesterday's big decline. In fact, looking back historically, yesterday's drop was the second biggest drop in history for the second day of the New Year. The biggest drop on the second day of a new year was in the year 2000. That was the year when the NASDAQ bubble originally popped. That big drop happened at a time where the market was peaking and we were just beginning a bear market where the U.S. stock market went down by about half and the NASDAQ went down by abut 80%. So not a good comparison.
NASDAQ Biggest Mover Up 4.25%
On the other hand, today's rise was the second biggest rise for the S&P on the third day of a new year in U.S. stock market history. The biggest rise happened in 1932, and that was during the great depression. Clearly not a good period for the U.S. stock market or the U.S. economy to have to go back to 1932 to see a third trading day in January where you have this big a gain. In fact, the Dow was up 3.3% on the day but the S&P up 3.4%. The biggest mover was the NASDAQ, which was up 4.25%. So much bigger than the drop that we had yesterday. The Russell 2000 was up 3.75%.
What was the Catalyst?
So what was the catalyst? Why did the U.S. stock market go up so much today after being down so much yesterday? First of all, the market started off on a positive note. I'm pretty sure we were up 2-300 points right out of the gate in the futures, even before we got the Nonfarm Payroll number that came out at 8:30 a.m. Futures were already trading, and there was already a big gain before that number was released. So it wasn't the jobs report that actually was responsible for today's move.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Dovish Statements
It had much more to do with the comments made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Those comments were made maybe an hour or so after the stock market opened. But let's start off early this morning. What was propping up the market in the morning, or overnight, was more optimism that a trade deal between the U.S. and China is imminent. Now, of course, whatever trade deal is negotiated is going to do nothing.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/5/2019 • 46 minutes, 44 seconds
Bad News is Bad News – Ep. 431
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Big Moves in the Market Today
For those of you who have been waiting all year for the first Peter Schiff Show Podcast of the new year, 2019, here it is. We finally got a day with enough worthwhile news that it made sense for me to do a podcast. I'll probably end up doing another one tomorrow, when we get the Nonfarm payroll numbers - the jobs numbers. We'll see if that's a big market mover. But we had a lot of movement in the markets today; all sorts of news came out as well, weighing on the markets.
Apple Closed Down 9.7%
The Dow was down 660 points today - pretty much about the same drop that we had on Christmas Eve. Now I doubt that today will be followed by a repeat of Boxing Day, where we get a 1,000 - point rally, but we'll see. The excuse of the day was probably Apple. You can say that Apple took a bite out of the stock market today. Apple announced yesterday just after the close that its sales would be disappointing, and Apple stock was down just under 10%. It closed down 9.7%, pretty close to the lows of the day - not the exact lows, but it has got to be one of the biggest losses in history for Apple.
Everybody Got a Rotten Apple Today
Apple is very widely owned; the Swiss Central Bank is a big holder of Apple stock. A lot of hedge funds own Apple, Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet) has a big position in Apple - pretty much in everybody's portfolio. So everybody got a rotten Apple today. In fact, Apple is now down almost 40% - 39% from its peak price. Remember, when it was at peak, it was over a trillion dollars in market cap. It was Apple and Amazon that were trillion dollar companies. Well, no more. Apple, again, has dropped not quite $400 billion in market cap from its peak.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/4/2019 • 55 minutes, 38 seconds
Santa Claus Rally Came Just the Same – Ep. 430
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Published on: Dec 28, 2018
Or Did It?
It looks like the Grinch may not have been able to stop Christmas from coming to Wall Street. It looks like the Santa Claus Rally came just the same. - or did it?
The worst Christmas Eve in the history of the stock market was followed by the biggest Boxing Day rally in the history of the stock market. We don't celebrate Boxing Day here in the United States; all the other English-speaking nations celebrate that holiday, but maybe we'll celebrate it in the future, given the fact that the Dow Jones rallied over 1,000 points this Boxing Day. So that more than eradicated the 650 point drop which was the biggest Christmas Eve drop in history.
A Bounce Could Come at any Time
If you recall, on my last podcast, I mentioned that following Christmas Eve's drop, this December was the worst December in stock market history. We has finally beaten out the 1931 December. But I also mentioned that given the extreme oversold condition that existed in the market, it was possible that a bounce could come any minute or any day, and I was not sure whether or not we would finish as the worst December in the history of the stock market because we still had several trading days left for the market to bounce, and that is exactly what happened.
The Grinch May Have a Change of Heart
In fact, we managed to close positive on the week. I think the Dow finished up about 617 points. Now, of course, we still have one more day for the Grinch to have another change of heart. If on Monday, the Dow is down more than 617 points which is easy to do given the volatility that we're seeing, especially we're no longer oversold to the extent that we were on Tuesday - then the Grinch may have ended up stealing the Santa Claus Rally anyway.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/29/2018 • 48 minutes, 42 seconds
The Grinch Stole the Santa Claus Rally – Ep. 429
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Worst Christmas Eve Day in Stock Market History
As I thought would be the case, it looks like the Grinch Stole the Santa Claus Rally. Normally, the U.S. stock market rallies during the final five trading days of the year between Christmas and New Year's Day. But today was not only the worst Christmas Eve day in stock market history, it blew apart the old record. In fact, there has never been a Christmas Eve day where the S&P or the Dow fell by as much as 1%. Today, the Dow Jones dropped better than 650 points - 2.9% on the day.
Officially Not a Correction
Although the Dow now is the only major index not officially in a bear market (now down 19.15% from its peak), but the S&P 500, which dropped 2.7% today is now down just over 20%. So it's now official, Wall Street can stop pretending that it's a correction, they have to admit that it's a bear market. Now, if they want to hang their had on the Dow, O.K. well they can hang it there maybe for one more trading day, because it's not going to take much for the Dow to join the party. Of course, other indexes are extending moves into bear market territory. The Dow Transports are down 25.7%; the NASDAQ just under 24% to the downside.
The Russell 2000 Losing Gains Rapidly
The Russell 2000 is down 27.3%. This index is down better than 5-1/2% since Donald Trump was inaugurated. This was the index that was supposed to benefit the most from Trump's economic policies. It's still up about 6% since he was elected President. So all that hype is still in there. But at the rate the index is falling, this index is going to lose those gains pretty rapidly. Then, of course, Trump is not going to be able to talk about all the wealth that has been created in the stock market since he's been elected, because all that paper wealth will have been destroyed.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/24/2018 • 47 minutes, 30 seconds
The Fed’s Deal with the Devil – Ep. 428
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
NASDAQ Now in Bear Territory
It was a big down day, in fact there was even more carnage in the NASDAQ. Today is the day that NASDAQ finally slipped into bear market territory. So, Wall Street's been calling this a correction the whole way, well now the NASDAQ is down 22%, joining the Russell 2000, down 26% and the Transports down 24%. Those 3 indexes are now officially in bear markets.
It's All a Matter of Time
But what does that mean? That means when the NASDAQ was only down 5%, it was in a bear market. That's exactly what I was saying. They don't acknowledge the bear market until it's down 20%, but that doesn't mean it's not in a bear market. It just means nobody wants to admit that it's a bear market. Now we still have 2 indexes that are not in bear markets, the S&P 500 is now down almost 18% and the Dow Jones is down just under 17%. So Wall Street maybe can cling to the notion that these indexes are not in bear markets because they're not down 20%. Look, it's all a matter of time. As I said on the last podcast, I thought that the NASDAQ would be in a bear market by the end of the week and that's exactly what happened, and I'm pretty sure that the S&P 500 and the Dow are going to join this party before the end of the year.
Huge Bear Market in FAANG Stocks
Today's decline started off as a rally. The Dow was up about 400 points this morning, before it collapsed. So we basically reversed yesterday's decline and then we got clobbered and took out new lows. The NASDAQ was down 3%. That was the weakest index, and it was led down by the FAANG stocks, which are now down collectively, on average, 35%. This is just generally in the last few months. So this is a huge bear market in the FAANG stocks. The worst of the FAANG's is Facebook, which was down big again today, like 5 of 6%. Facebook is now down 43%. Second place, is Netflix, down 42%, then Amazon down 33%, and lastly, Google, which is down only 23%. Google just finally went into a bear market this week. If you look at the charts, there is nothing but air - there is a long way down between where we are now and where any kind of trend lines or support lines could be drawn.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/22/2018 • 49 minutes, 27 seconds
The Fed Put a Fork in the Stock Market – Ep. 427
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Seventh Rate Hike since Trump's Election
As expected, earlier today, the Federal Reserve nudged up the Fed Funds rate by another quarter point. The Fed is now targeting their rate at 2.25 - 2.5%. So the range is somewhere in the middle, there. This marks the sixth time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates since Donald Trump has been President, and the seventh time that the Fed has hiked rates since Trump was elected. Remember, during the entirety of Obama's 8-year Presidency, the Fed raised interest rates only once.
A 900-point Selloff
What the markets did not expect was the dovish hike to be so hawkish. In fact, the minute I heard the language, I was surprised that the Dow didn't immediately sell off, more than it did. It had a bit of a bounce before it sold off, the Dow Jones ended up down just over 350 points. The selloff from the high to the low was just under 900 points. Earlier in the day the Dow had rallied up about 300 points because there was a lot of anticipation that even though the Fed was going to hike rates today, that it would indicate it would pause. That was on neutral - that it wasn't really planning any more rate hikes for 2019, and would just play it by ear. It was going to be data dependent.
Dow's Worst December since 1932
But what the Federal Reserve said in their official statement that accompanied the news was that they had reduced their expectation for rate hikes for next year from 3 to just 2 anticipated rate hikes. Now, that may be considered dovish, but it did not nearly meet the expectations of the market. It was expecting something much more than that. When I heard that, I thought, "The market's going to get killed." And it did go down but I think a lot more of the carnage is going to happen probably later in the week and next week. In fact, the market is now down so much that the Dow is having its worst December since 1932. Of course, that was the beginning of the Great Depression.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/20/2018 • 45 minutes, 52 seconds
A December to Remember – Ep. 426
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Two Podcasts in One Day!
For those of you who were worried that I wasn't going to be able to do a podcast today to talk about the stock market or the economy because I already did a podcast earlier this morning, well, you're wrong! Here I am, doing my second podcast of the day. This may be an unprecedented event. I don't know if I've ever recorded 2 podcasts in the same day.
Don't Miss This Morning's Podcast on the Unconstitutionality of Obamacare
The reason I did the earlier podcast was because I wanted to address the topic of the Federal court in Texas striking down the ACA individual mandate and rendering the entire Affordable Care Act unconstitutional. I would encourage you to listen to that podcast if you are interested in this topic or the Constitution to listen to it in its entirety.
Not a Crash, but Regular Volatility
But let's talk about another big down Monday. As I suggested when I did my podcast on Friday, I'm still thinking that there is a possibility of a Black Monday type event this year. I said we were running out of Mondays because we only had 3 left, and now one down. This, again was not a crash, but the Dow did close down better than 500 points. At one point, we were down over 600. You know, these big drops are not becoming a recurring event - they add up, right?
Worst December Start Since 1980
If you look at the charts, we look extremely vulnerable to a big drop. I read that already, we're off to the worse start for a December since 1980. That was really the end of the last bear market. We had a bear market that went from 1966 to 1982, so the last time we had a December this week was at the tail end of that long-term secular bear market.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/18/2018 • 43 minutes, 57 seconds
Why Obamacare Is Unconstitutional – Ep. 425
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Decision May Well Stand up under Appeal
A Federal Judge in the state of Texas, U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor, has ruled that the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, is unconstitutional, and therefore the law would be null and void, that it would be struck down. Of course this will be the subject of appeal, so whether or not this decision is going to hold is still an open question. But if you listen to the way it is being reported in the media, the reaction from a lot of the people, particularly the Democrats, is that they are accusing this judge of being partisan, being a judicial activist, that this is a ridiculous crazy decision and that it will clearly be overturned. All this is a bunch of nonsense. The judge in this case is completely correct. Obamacare was unconstitutional before this decision.
The Rationale Behind Judge's Ruling
This particular judge focused on one aspect of the law, but there are so many reasons this law is unconstitutional. But for the purpose of this podcast is to focus on the rationale behind the judge's ruling and why I believe the decision is valid and may, in fact stand up under appeal. Under the new makeup of the Supreme Court, some of the new justices could easily side with the original dissent to form a new majority now that the law itself has been changed based on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is the basis of this particular decision.
Read Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution
I did an earlier podcast on whether or not the U.S. government could require American citizens to purchase health insurance. Now the theory was that they had the right to do this under what is now known as the Commerce Clause (Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution), one of the single most understood Constitutional clauses which has enabled the government to get away with all sorts of things that the Constitution does not authorize. This is where all the powers to the Federal government are delegated. One of the powers is to regulate commerce with foreign nations and among the several states and with the Indian tribes. That's it.
Constitution Allows Federal Government to Regulate Commerce, not Companies
Now based on that clause, you have had Supreme Courts validate government regulation of companies because the government claims that since those companies engage in interstate commerce, that it falls within that power, that Congress can regulate these companies because the company is engaged in commerce. Of course, that's not what it says. The Constitution doesn't say the Federal government has the right to regulate companies that engage in interstate commerce, it just says it can regulate the commerce, itself. The commerce has to do with the flow of goods and services over state borders. So this is an unconstitutional expansion of Federal power. The Federal government does not have the constitutional authority to regulate businesses simply because these businesses happen to engage in interstate commerce.
Federal Regulation of Business Outside of Constitutional Authority
But that was even the camel's nose under the tent, because then it got worse. Then what happened is companies that were regulated that did no interstate commerce were saying, "this law does not apply to me because I don't engage in interstate commerce." But the Supreme Court said that the Federal government under the Commerce Clause can regulate companies that do not even engage in interstate commerce if they can show that those companies somehow effect interstate commerce, even though they themselves do not participate in it. So now,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/17/2018 • 47 minutes, 34 seconds
Under Socialism Even Bad Sex Is Good – Ep. 424
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Technicals Portend Bear Market in Small Caps and Transports
The Dow managed to finish off this Friday with a loss of less than 500 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down just 496.87 points. So I guess the headline can be: "We Avoided a 500 Point Decline!". At one point, the Dow was better than 550 points in the red. But, when you close that close to your low of the day, within 10 percentage points of the low, that is a very weak close. The Dow finished the day weak, the week weak, and it is a very weak month. In fact, the weakest indexes continue to be the Russell 2000 - I've been talking about the weakness in the small caps. That index is now down better than 19% from its peak just about 4 months ago. So we're almost officially in bear market territory. We'll probably be there by Monday, judging by the technicals.
Possible Black Monday?
The other index that is leading the way down is the Dow Jones Transports. This index is now down better than 18% from its peak. Both the Transports and the Russell 2000 are at the lowest levels of the year. They took out the lows from the earlier decline that happened at the beginning of the year, so the Dow and the NASDAQ have yet to take out those lows set earlier in the year, but I believe they will. In fact, they may even take them out before the end of the year. Monday, again, is looking extremely weak. I've been talking about this all quarter, where I think there is a potential for a Black Monday type of event. Obviously, we're running out of Mondays this year. Both Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve fall on a Monday and there will probably be very light trading going on, so potentially the markets could see a lot of selling if there are not enough people there to buy.
Appearance on Countdown to the Closing Bell this Monday
I will be on Fox Business News, The Countdown to the Closing Bell this Monday, with Liz Claman. Maybe if I get lucky we'll have a Black Monday on a day that I happen to be on television. I will be there for the final hour of the day and often times, the biggest part of the sell-off on big down days happens at the very last hour, so I'll be live on Fox Business for that potential big drop. Make sure to tune in live.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/15/2018 • 40 minutes, 28 seconds
The Fed Hiked Itself into Insolvency – Ep. 423
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Mainstream Forecasts Incorporating Recession
We are in the early stages of this bubble popping. That's why, if you look now at a lot of the mainstream forecasts, all of a sudden, they're all incorporating recession. The probability of recession is now very high over the next couple of years. I read J.P. Morgan now is saying that there is a 70% probability that the U.S. is in recession by the end of 2020. In fact, most of the forecasts I'm looking at now predict that the U.S. will either enter recession next year or in the following year. This is a huge change from where people were just a few months ago, where there were no recessions as far as the eye can see. Now we're staring them in the face.
Third Consecutive Drop in Small Business Confidence
One thing that really hasn't changed so much is that you have all this optimism that still abounds. It doesn't make sense to me that people could be so optimistic about an economy that they concede is so close to recession. Now, I think on Tuesday we did get a drop in small business confidence, it's the third consecutive monthly drop, and three months ago, small business confidence hit an all-time record high. But if you have more of these small business owners thinking that we are a year away from recession, in fact less than a year if you think recession is going to start in 2019 - we're going to be in 2019 in a few weeks. So, if you think recession is so close, how much longer can you remain so confident?
The Fed Doesn't Have Recession in its Forecast
Now, of course, the Fed doesn't have recession in its forecast; not even close. The National debt is careening toward $22 trillion and these guys are putting out their rosy estimates for economic growth. They're not starting to factor in these recession forecasts that are becoming more and more mainstream.
Fed Funds Rate in Negative Territory in Real Terms
The problem for the Federal Reserve is that they are trying to keep this bubble from imploding, but the task is impossible because enough air has already come out of it. Interest rates have already risen to the point where the camel's back has been broken. The Fed has now backtracked into admitting that we're just slightly below "neutral". We're one more rate hike away from "neutral" even though one more rate hike will still leave the Fed Funds Rate in negative territory in real terms, not in nominal terms. If you accept the government's inflation numbers and we got CPI and PPI numbers that came out yesterday and today - if you look at the core, we've got the hottest core in 7 years.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/13/2018 • 39 minutes, 28 seconds
A Bubble That Will Live in Infamy – Ep. 422
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Pearl Harbor Day 2018: A Very Interesting Technical Day
Today is December 7th, a day that will live in infamy. Unless you are a Millennial who was educated in the U.S. public school system. In which case you have absolutely no idea what happened on December 7th 1941. You've probably never heard of Pearl Harbor, you certainly don't know where Pearl Harbor is located. Maybe you've heard of World War II, but a lot of them haven't. Even those who have heard of World War II probably have no idea who fought, or even who won.
As Goes the NASDAQ, so Goes the Rest of the Market
Today, December 7th maybe won't live in infamy, but it seems to me it was a very interesting technical day in the U.S. stock market, which should give the bulls on the stock market something to think about. I think the action today, particularly in the NASDAQ, (I think as goes the NASDAQ, so goes the rest of the market) but that action was particularly significant.
An "Outside Day"
One of the more reliable technical patterns is an "Outside Day". An outside day is when you trade above and below the highs and lows of the previous day, and then close above or below one of those lows. It's an outside day even if you close somewhere in the middle. An "Inside Day" is when you trade within the range of the previous day; you don't take out the high or the low. But the most significant type of an outside day is an outside day where you close above or below the previous day's high or low. That would be called an "Outside Reversal Day". It' s a positive if you could take out the previous day's low, but then rally and then close above the previous day's high.
The Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ Took out Yesterday's Lows
What the NASDAQ did today was the opposite of that. The NASDAQ rallied this morning on, I guess the weaker than expected jobs numbers and took out the highs from yesterday. In fact, all of the major markets - the Dow, the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 - they all took out yesterday's highs. But then they came crashing down, The Dow did not take out yesterday's low - so the Dow did not have an outside day. But both the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ took out yesterday's lows.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/8/2018 • 38 minutes, 12 seconds
The Fed’s Policy Mistake Started with Greenspan – Ep. 421
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Dow Volatility Started with Huawei News
We had another very volatile day today on Wall Street, and it really got started last night with the news of the arrest in Canada of the CFO of the Chinese company, Huawei. Her father is the founder of the company and a very prominent, powerful and influential man in China and this set the mood. the Dow futures dropped initially, I think about 500 points as soon as the story broke. Obviously, anything that may throw a monkey wrench in the supposed deal that was made over dinner, mano a mano, down in South America between Trump and Xi. So this caused some problems.
Dow Down About 780 on the Lows
The market clawed its way back; I think we were down maybe 200 and change, but then we started selling off early in the morning and when the Dow Jones opened up, we were down maybe about 400-500 very quickly and we sold off almost down to 800 points. The Dow was down about 780 points on the lows. This is following yesterday's market holiday honoring the memory of the late President George Herbert Walker Bush. That day of mourning, however did not do anything to stop the carnage on Wall Street.
Market Clawed its Way Back on Fed "Wait and See" News
What it took was an article that came out later in the day in the Wall Street Journal. That article basically said that the Fed was considering a new "Wait and See" strategy after the December rate hike. And the odds of a December rate hike, which are coming up, the probability is about 75%, which is lower than it was, so there is still a chance that the Fed does not hike in December. But according to the Wall Street Journal doesn't take place immediately. This is after the December hike. So for 2019, the article suggests that maybe there'll be even fewer rate hikes than the markets believed.
Debt Service Costs Creating a Drag
Everything was weak until we got this news from the Fed that turned a lot of the tech stocks around and got the market moving higher. I don't think this does anything, because, it doesn't take the December rate hike off the table, and if the Fed raises rates in December, then all the problems that already exist because of higher rates, will be bigger. This means mortgage rates will be going up. Debt service costs will go up. One of the big drags on the economy now is that debt service costs have gone up. So if the Fed adds to that pain by following through with another rate hike in December, it will be just another weight on the economy's back. The Fed is still talking about raising rates in 2019 - they're saying one more, and we're going to wait and see.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/7/2018 • 48 minutes, 8 seconds
A Nation Can’t Tax Itself Rich – Ep. 420
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
No Relief
As I said on yesterday's podcast, I did not we had a "Wall Street Relief Rally", based on the stand down or truce in the trade war following the backtracking by the Fed on the potential number of rate hikes and the distance we were from neutrality.
Interest Rates Anything But Neutral
By the way, yesterday I referred to the rate hikes as normal; I should have said neutral - obviously what we have now is not even close to being normal. The Fed is trying to convince us that the new "neutral" rate of interest is now lower than what was considered neutral in the past. Why is that? Because we have such an enormous amount of debt now, the Fed has to keep interest rates much lower in order to achieve neutrality. But, of course, if the Fed needs to keep interest rates low, it's not neutral. Those low interest rates are actually stimulative. What the Fed is trying to do is use artificially low interest rates to prop up the economy and then claim that those artificially low rates are neutral. They're anything but neutral. They are accommodative. This is cheap money, this easy money, and ultimately it is going to set off massive inflation.
A Terrible Day, Technically
Nobody seems to understand that yet, but that's what's coming. People are continuing to be complacent despite today's substantial drop in the value of stocks. Today the Dow was down just shy of 800 points - 799 points. At the lows, it was down over 800. We didn't close on the exact low; maybe they're going to somehow claim that that was a rally or something - the fact that we closed slightly off the lows. This was a terrible day, technically, and in fact I mentioned again on yesterday's podcast, the fact that the market made the highs on the open - it did not trade very well, and it looked to me that we would fall down. I did not know that we would drop this much this quickly, but it doesn't surprise me.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/5/2018 • 43 minutes, 3 seconds
Trump Backs down on Tariffs – Ep. 419
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Interest Rates and Trade War
The two things that everybody seems to agree were weighing down the markets were the Fed's relentless drive to normalize interest rates, and figure out where "normal" was, and, of course, the trade war - the threat of additional tariffs overhanging the markets. So I think it was pretty clear to President Trump who is hanging his hat on the stock market, has decided that the stock market performance is the best barometer of his Presidency. So the fact that the stock market was falling was really a big problem for the President so he had to do what he could to try to get the stock market to go back up.
Fed Restated "Normal"
The first part of the two-pronged attack was the interest rates. Whether he was able to convince Powell to change his tune or whether Trump just got lucky and the Fed decided to backtrack, as I mentioned in my last podcast, the Fed has now said, "We are just below normal." Meaning that we only need one more rate hike before we get to normal, whereas in the past the Fed had said that normal was quite a ways away, and that the Fed would have to raise rates many, many more times in order to achieve normal. And of course, anybody who knows anything about the history of interest rates would have to agree that where we are now, at 2% is historically abnormal. It obviously could not be considered neutral based on any kind of past precedent. So the fact that the market was able to backtrack so quickly really threw a bone that the market and Donald Trump badly needed..
Trade Tensions Weighing Down the Market
But the other factor that was weighing down the market was all the trade tensions, and all the talk about the tariffs that were going to be imposed in less than a month. The first of next year we were going to get these 25% across-the-board tariffs.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/4/2018 • 54 minutes, 21 seconds
The Fed Flinches, Powell Put in Play – Ep. 418
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
The Fed's Game of Chicken
The big news was yesterday, when Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, basically flinched. I've been talking about the game of chicken that the Federal Reserve has been playing with the markets. The way the game of chicken goes, is the markets keep moving lower and the Fed keeps talking about how great the economy is and how many rate hikes are coming in the future. Somebody has to flinch - somebody has to blink. It's like you have these two automobiles driving toward each other, and there's going to be a major crash unless somebody turns the wheel.It seems like it was Jerome Powell who turned the wheel first, and, in fact, was chicken.
The Fed Is Worried About All Asset Prices, Not Just the Stock Market
As much as the Fed wants to pretend they don't care about the stock market - they absolutely care about the stock market. They are tremendously worried about a weakening stock market. Remember the goal of quantitative easing was to lift the stock market - to create a wealth effect and it was that stock market-created wealth that was going to drive consumption and the economy. And it wasn't just the stock market; it was also the real estate market. So the Fed is worried about all asset prices, not just the stock market. Clearly the real estate market is in even more trouble than the stock market, but both of these markets were headed lower, and I think that is what really prompted the Fed to blink - to swerve in this game of chicken.
Powell Suddenly Dials Back the Narrative
Now, of course you also had President Trump pressuring the Fed, you had Mnuchin putting some pressure on the Fed, which I think should also be a worrying factor. We don't really know. There was a lot of speculation about what was behind the Fed's change of heart - change in policy. After all, up until yesterday, even when you had the Vice Chair speak, the tone was very hawkish: "Yep, we've got lots of rate hikes coming." And now all of a sudden, Powell dials it all back. Basically, what Powell said that convinced people that maybe there will not be as many rate hikes in the future, is, "We're just below neutral. We're almost there, maybe one more rate hike ought to do it."
Is 2.25% to 2.5% Neutral?
First of all, we're still at 2%, so that would imply neutral is 2.25% or 2.5%. That really shows you how low the neutrality bar has been lowered given the enormity of the debt bubble that have. Once upon a time, and not too long ago, a 2.5% Fed Funds rate would have been considered highly stimulative.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/30/2018 • 34 minutes, 59 seconds
Two Wrongs Never Make a Right – Ep. 417
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
25% Tariffs Will Inflict Rather Substantial Damage to the U.S. Economy
The Dow Jones managed to finish the day up just over 100 points - I think that was about the high of the day, and we erased a loss that at one point was better than 200 points. I think a potential catalyst was a talk given by Larry Kudlow earlier in the day in which Kudlow raised some optimism over the possibility of a deal with China that would, of course avert the 25% across the board tariffs that are going to go into effect at the beginning of the new year. Of course, there is always the possibility of a resolution, and I still thin that there is going to be some type of face-saving resolution on both sides to avert these 25% tariffs. I do think that they will inflict rather substantial damage to the U.S. economy, which is already rapidly decelerating, despite everybody's refusal to admit that (including the Federal Reserve, and I'll get to some comments later in the podcast).
Trump Is Pulling the Strings
But I don't think the President can risk the 25% tariffs as much as he wants to posture that the U.S. economy is in great shape, and we are in a better position than China to weather any kind of short-term damage that might be created by the tariffs. I don't think the President is eager to test that hypothesis. I think he would rather take credit for averting the crisis, even if the crisis was a matter of his own doing. He throws out the potential for the crisis, but of course, the only reason why the crisis is dangling in front of us is because Trump is pulling the strings.
It's Impossible to Consume What Has Not Been Produced
To the extent that the Chinese can produce all these products, they don't need America to consume them; they can consume the products themselves. Once the products are produced, consumption is a foregone conclusion. It's easy to consume what's been produced; it's impossible to consume what has not been produced.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/28/2018 • 47 minutes, 28 seconds
As Bubbles Burst the Malinvestments Are Exposed – Ep. 416
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Dow Could Not Hold Onto the Gain
After yesterday's, I think 550 point drop in the Dow, the market bounced back a bit today. I think at one point earlier in the day the Dow managed to gain over 200 points, but it could not hold on to that gain. It closed down just under one point. Very weak technical action for today's pre-Thanksgiving bounce. Normally, the markets are up on the day before Thanksgiving, and in general, they were. The other indexes all managed to close in the black, although considerably off their intra-day highs.
Decline in Retail Touted as Excuse, But It's Just a Bear Market
The XRT, which is an index of retailers (I talked about that on this podcast before) snapped an 8-day losing streak. More bad news came out from retailers yesterday; that was part of the reason that you saw the big sell-off in the Dow. That was the excuse; I don't think the market needs a reason to go down. It's a bear market, and that's what bear markets do - they go down. Of course people who don't know that they're in a bear market make excuses to try to rationalize why the market is going down because they don't want to admit that they are, in fact, in a bear market.
Dead Cat Bounces All Around
Everything bounced today, I guess dead cat bounces all around. Even Bitcoin managed a rally. In fact yesterday, Bitcoin got as low as $4,050. So it held $4,000. Of course, you have people saying, "Ah Ha! $4,000 is the bottom!" I doubt it. It makes sense that there'd be some support at a round number. I doubt that this is THE low. It may not last more than a day or two, given the momentum in this decline.
Malinvestments are a Classic Part of Every Bubble
Remember I have talked about all the malinvestments that are taking place. When a lot of people argued with me about why Bitcoin was going to succeed, they pointed out that all this capital was going into the industry; all this infrastructure was being built up, and so therefore Bitcoin was going to work because it had all this infrastructure behind it. My argument was always that infrastructure represents malinvestment. That is a classic part of every bubble.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/22/2018 • 52 minutes, 25 seconds
The Confidence Bubble Has Popped – Ep. 415
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
FAANG's Took a Big Bite Out of the Market
Another Monday, another big down day for the U.S. stock market, it is turning out to be one hell of a quarter; not all of the declines happening in October. But as I said earlier, it doesn't have to be in October for the market to crash. Today wasn't a Black Monday; certainly the percentage decline wasn't out of the ordinary. Although the FAANG stocks, in particular, there was a big bite taken out of those stocks, and it wasn't just the bite that was taken out of the Apple, which was some of the news that precipitated today's decline. A big down day nonetheless.
NASDAQ Having one of the Worst Quarters Ever
The Dow Jones down just shy of 400 points - 395, or 1.5%. On the lows, we were down better than 500 points. The Russell 2000 closed down just over 30 points - that's a 2% point drop. But the big drop was the NASDAQ - down 219 points, just over 3%, pretty close to the lows of the day. The NASDAQ is now down 12.5% so far this quarter - probably one of the worst quarters ever.
I think the only thing that may slow down the decline is if the Fed skips the December rate hike. Although, even that may not be enough. If the Fed doesn't hike in December, the markets might get worried that the Fed knows something and that the economy is much weaker and therefore earnings will be much weaker, so, to me, i think if the market's going to get a stay of execution from the Fed, it's actually going to have to be a rate cut.
Homebuilder Sentiment Lower Than Expected
There are plenty of other data points that are coming out, both corporate news and news about the overall economy, In particular, today, that I think weighed heavily on the markets. The first one being the Homebuilder Sentiment for November. That came out at 10am. So the markets were already trading based on another piece of news which I will get to. Last month, Homebuilder Sentiment's number was at 68. Now anything above 50 is supposedly O.K. It still means they're optimistic. And the consensus was for Homebuilder Sentiment to stay at 68. Instead, it plunged all the way down to 60. In fact, the range of forecasts went from a low of 66 to a high of 69. That drop, from what I've read, that is bigger than any drop we've had during any month of the last bust that led to the 2008 Financial Crisis. We've never seen a rate of decline like this. Obviously that scared the market. This is just one of the first sentiment indicators that is giving way. Obviously, home sales are imploding so you might expect builders to be a little bit nervous about this, even though they are still somewhat optimistic. But remember, this whole rally is built on confidence and the confidence is going to start going everywhere, In addition to the Homebuilders, you're going to see business confidence, particularly small business confidence, which was at a record high.
Apple Now in a Bear Market
But there was some other particularly bad news that came in before the opening bell, and that one was from Apple. They said they will be cutting production because of lower sales. That decision trickles down, effecting a lot of companies who count on those orders from Apple. The price of Apple is down by 4% on the day. But if you now look at the total drop - just over 20% - and that means the way Wall Street scores it, Apple is now in a bear market.
Facebook Led the Market Down
Of course, not just Apple, the FAANG's in general, the market took a bite out of those guys today. Facebook leading the market down - down another 5.5% on the day. That brings the total decline for this bear market to 40%. In second place is NETFLIX, that was down 5.5%, today so pretty much neck and neck with Facebook. But since its peak, NETFLIX is down 36%.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/20/2018 • 50 minutes, 49 seconds
Even Jim Cramer Knows More Than the Fed – Ep. 414
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Optimism Over No Tariffs Fueling Market Move
Donald Trump, I think, was the reason the markets ended up finishing in the black today, at least most of the major indexes. In fact, the only index that was down on the day was the NASDAQ - the NASDAQ was the only major index that was down on the week, thanks to weakness in tech stock, in particular, the FANG stocks. The comments that Trump made today basically gave hope to some people that potentially 25% across the board tariffs on all Chinese imports may not go into effect at the beginning of next year, which is the threat. If the Chinese ant Trump don't come to an agreement, then those tariffs are going to hit.
Tariffs Are the Stick
Apparently the tariffs are the stick that is going to be brandished by Trump, and he is going to use it to hit the Chinese over the head. But the threat of this big stick is supposedly going to bring the Chinese to the table, and there will be a deal that is favorable to the United States. Of course, if these tariffs actually go into effect, the people who are really going to be hit with the stick are going to be Americans. It's going to be American consumers who have to pay 25% more for everything they buy, and it's going to be American retailers who, of course, are going to sell a lot less stuff, because, if they have to raise prices by 25%, sales are going to collapse.
Fed Hinting that "Data Dependent" May Signal Slowdown in Rates
We had a couple of Fed guys out today -Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida - was interviewed today on CNBC by Steve Liesman - I happened to catch that interview, and was listening closely to what Clarida had to say. To me, he almost admitted that when the Fed pretended to be "data dependent" early on, they really weren't data dependent at all. They were just raising interest rates because they wanted to get them higher. They were afraid of getting caught with rates too close to zero in the beginning of the next recession, so they wanted to re-load that gun, so they wanted to get interest rates higher. They kept saying they were data dependent, but I never really thought they were. Once they started to raise rates, they were just on auto pilot. But now, Clarida seems to open the door to the possibility that maybe, some of the rate hikes that we think are coming aren't going to come, because he talked about how now, the Fed can be more data dependent than it was in the past.
Optimism Among Warning Signals
Where in the past, we talked about being data dependent, but we really weren't, but now we actually can be because now we're closer to neutral. And since we're now closer to that number we can take the data more seriously, meaning that if the data comes out weaker than we expect, well maybe we won't raise rates as much as we think. and I think Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was also out today making similar comments that were initially taken as Dovish by the markets, because he was leaving the door open, apparently to the fact that the Fed may not deliver as many rate hikes as the markets believe. Both of these guys are extremely optimistic and upbeat about the U.S. economy. As if none of the bad news that is happening around them matter. You've got the semi-conductors, you've got the retailers, you've got the autos, you've got the home builders. All these sectors are blowing up one after another and they guys at the Fed are thinking "No Problem!"
Cramer Exceeding Very Low Bar Set By Fed
Also today, Jim Kramer, on CNBC, was out there critical of the Fed, basically saying that these guys don't know what they are talking about and that he's smarter than them, and they should pay attention to what he's saying. Kramer may in fact know more than the Fed,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/17/2018 • 44 minutes, 39 seconds
Investors Oblivious as Multiple Bubbles Pop – Ep. 413
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Very Negative Technical Action
We had another roller coaster ride in the stock market today, with the Dow Jones ending down about 200 points, but that was well off the lows of the day. I think we were down about 350 points, or close to it, at the lows. But, more interesting, we were up over 200 points earlier this morning. So this is very negative technical action, when you have these rallies and then close negative. In fact, we were down another 100 points yesterday on the Dow, and today, we came to within, I think 10 points of taking out yesterday's high - and then we not only crashed below yesterday's low, but we closed below yesterday's low. So another very weak day.
A Change in Name Only
I think one of the catalysts for the late afternoon rally, before the selloff, was all of the headlines coming out of Europe - the UK, regarding a Brexit deal, and I think that caused some people to buy stocks. The dollar actually sold off. It was down already; it sold off some more on that news coming out of Europe. But I don't know if this deal is going to fly . we'll see. I read through some parts of the deal, and to me, it looks like Theresa May is trying to borrow a page from President Donald Trump. Basically, what she is doing, is she is trying to rename the union that the UK has with Europe . If you read what they are going to sign on to, it is going to be some kind of trade pact that really kind of subjects the UK to all the rules and regulations that prompted them to want to get out of the European Union in the first place. So they're going to Brexit, but they're not actually going anywhere. Kind of like renaming NAFTA the USMCA . Basically, you're re-branding what you had before and claiming a victory. Maybe, politically speaking, May wants to try to honor the will of the voters by saying we accomplished Brexit, but basically not change anything. It's just a change in name only.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/15/2018 • 31 minutes, 38 seconds
Share Buyback Chickens Coming Home to Roost – Ep. 412
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Surrendered Rest of Post-Election Gains in One Day
As I thought, it didn't take long for the markets to surrender all of the post-election gains. The Dow Jones today was down 602 points, so we've already lost it. It took one day. On my podcast on Friday I said that we would surrender the remainder of the gains this week and we did it in the first day of the week. The NASDAQ actually had an even bigger decline; down over 200 points - 206.03 to be exact -down 2.78%. The Russell 2000 was also down 1.98% - just over 30 points - just shy of 2%. The S&P 500 was almost down 2% - 1.97% - 54.79 points .
NASDAQ: Usual Suspects
The usual suspects, of course, having some of the big declines. Apple computer came out with worse than expected earnings last week- down another 5.45% today - down 194. It is now below 250 - This is a new low for Apple. A lot of the other computer stocks got beat up today: NVIDIA down 7.7%, Broadcom down 6.5&, so the entire tech sector really got beaten up. Of course, Swiss National Bank was a big loser; they are one of the largest investors in U.S. Technology stocks. I did read an article, though, that said that they trimmed their portfolios rather significantly before the October decline, so the Swiss National Bank did not quite take it on the chin as badly as might otherwise have been the case. But, potentially, the news that the Swiss Central Bank was paring back its portfolio could be part of the negative news that is currently weighing down the market.
$15 Billion of G.E. Shareholder Wealth up in Smoke
Looking at stocks like G.E. - have been talking about G.E. on this podcast for quite some time. It is down again another 7% today, closing below $8 - $7.99 - the low price on the day was $7.72. This is a perfect example of what happens when the buyback chickens come home to roost. General Electric was buying back a lot of stock when money was cheap. The company is loaded up with debt - $45 - 50 billion of debt. They also have $20 billion + of underfunded pension liabilities which I think are going to be more under funded when the market goes down. When money was cheap, yes, it was easy to borrow money and buy back stock; the price of the stock was going up. Look at 2016 alone. I think that was the biggest year of buy backs, although they have been buying back every year, but in 2016, G.E. bought back about $20 billion worth of stock, and the stock was around $30. It is now under $8. The stock is down 75%. That means if they bought $20 billion worth of stock, that stock now has a market value of just $5 billion. $15 billion of shareholder wealth up in smoke!Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/13/2018 • 39 minutes, 25 seconds
Rising Prices Reflect Inflation Not Growth – Ep. 411
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Dead Cat Bounce Flattens Out
The Dow Jones was down a little over 200 today, closing back below 26,000. NASDAQ composite down 124 - that's a bigger percentage decline, 1.7%, approximately. The Composite is being led lower by the tech stocks, particularly the FANG stocks once again taking a bite out of the market. The markets, though, were positive on the week, thanks to that huge relief rally that took place on Wednesday following the results of the midterm elections on Tuesday. But as I said on my Wednesday podcast, I thought that relief rally was just another dead cat bounce, that the fundamentals and the technicals still looked horrible for the U.S. stock market. I expected that rally to reverse, and of course that process had already begun Thursday and Friday. I think it will continue next week and I think the rest of those gains will be surrendered.
Higher than Expected PPI Sparked Sell-Off
The catalyst for today's selloff was a much hotter than expected Producer Price Index number. The PPI was up .6% in 1 month, which is a big gain. In fact this is the biggest jump in the PPI in 6 years. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices are up 2.8%. The market was looking for an increase half that size: .3%, Even year-over-year, when you strip out food and energy we were still up 2.6%, which is considerably above the 2% level that the Fed is looking at. Of course, the Fed is looking at consumer prices, not producer prices, but of course, nobody can consume what is not produced. These are really wholesale prices and of course they are going to get passed on to the consumer, so consumer prices are headed higher.
The Markets Don't Get It
But, again, the markets don't get it. Gold dropped the minute this number came out, gold dumped about $10. It was already down on the day, and then it sold off and never recovered. On the other hand, bonds were relatively stable when the number came out. Maybe rates ticked up just a smidgen, but actually bonds rallied on the day. Now maybe the weak stock market had a little bit to do with it, but the irony of it is that you get these numbers that show much more than expected inflation, and what do investors do? They sell gold and they buy U.S. treasuries. Now, that is the worse thing to do if there's more inflation. Gold is an inflation hedge. So, if inflation is picking up, you would want to own gold to protect yourself from inflation. On the other hand, the one asset that suffers the most, where the most value is eroded away because of inflation is a bond. A bond is specifically payments of cash in the future, and the more inflation we have, the less that future cash is worth.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/10/2018 • 38 minutes, 55 seconds
Divided Government Will Produce Larger Deficits – Ep. 410
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Relief Rally Post-Midterms
The elections are over and the Blue Wave was averted and the Dow Jones rose 545 points today to celebrate that fact and the NASDAQ was up 194 points, 2.64%; Russell 2000 up 26 points, about 1.67% . Now you may be wondering why there was such a big rise in the stock market based on an outcome that was pretty much expected. The Republicans lost the House of Representatives, and that was something that was widely anticipated by the markets. But the loss wasn't that big; they lost 26 seats. I think 23 was the number that the Democrats had to pick up. But I think there was some concern that the Republicans may have lost the Senate - instead they actually picked up, I think 3 seats as of now, in the Senate - increasing their margin. This is only the third time in 100 years where that's happened, where you've had the incumbent party lose House seats but gain Senate seats.
Obama's Midterm House Loss: 63 Seats
But it is amazing that the press was trying to hold this out as some kind of repudiation of his policies: "You lost the House of Representatives". Big deal! Obama lost the house of Representatives during his first midterms in 2010. That was one of the biggest disasters for an incumbent since Roosevelt. Obama lost 63 house seats. Not 26 - remember the Tea Party? That was all 2010. Trump did so much better than Obama. In fact, the average loss for a midterm in the House is 37 seats. Trump's loss of 26 was much better than average, but you wouldn't know that from listening to the Media. But most impressive was the 3 seats gained in the Senate. Barack Obama lost 6 seats during his first midterm elections. That's a 9-seat difference between what Trump was able to accomplish and Obama's accomplishment.
Economy-Stimulating Tax Cuts Less Likely
I think the reason that the dollar was weaker is the narrative is that since the Republicans no longer have control of the House of Representatives that it is less likely that we will get more tax cuts - at least the tax cuts that would be stimulative to the economy.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/8/2018 • 36 minutes, 9 seconds
Vote Against Socialism and Identity Politics – Ep. 409
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
An Advanced Auction on the Sale of Stolen Goods
Tomorrow is Election Day, or as H.L. Mencken once described the process, "An advanced auction on the sale of stolen goods". My wife has been bugging me for some time to urge people who listen to my podcast to go out and vote on Election Day. I think she's prepared to blame me if there are any close races, either for the House, Senate or even for Governor that end up going to the Democrats - if I do not urge my listeners to vote against that wave, somehow it will be my fault. So I urge all of the people who listen to my podcasts to actually go out and vote this Tuesday on Election Day.
Lesser of Two Evils
In most cases, our votes are not even going to matter. In fact in most cases it is a matter of voting between the lesser of two evils. Even though the lesser of two evils is still evil, it is "lesser", and when it comes to evil, I guess lesser is better. In some cases there are actually some good candidates who are running. Sometimes, however, when good candidates actually get elected and get into the cesspool that is Washington, D.C., a lot of the values that led them into politics go out the window if they want to stay there. You can have good intentions when you get to Washington, you can be principled, and you can say, "I'm going there to make the country a better place" but ultimately once you get there, everything changes.
Politics Ahead of Principle
In fact, when it comes to elections, and politics, the worst candidate usually wins. If you are a candidate or an elected official, and you are making decisions that are economically sound, and that are in the best interest of the nation or your constituency, and if your opponent is making decisions based on politics, which are likely to result in a larger number of votes, Which decisions are likely to land me money from special interests? If you're campaigning on principle, and your opponent is a practical politician, who's going to win? Even if you win a few elections, you're eventually going to lose. And the politicians who are i office the longest, are most successful at putting politics ahead of principle.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/5/2018 • 39 minutes, 54 seconds
Jobs Are Another Bubble About to Pop – Ep. 408
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes
https://www.branddrivendigital.com/how-to-rate-and-review-a-podcast-in-itunes/
Futures Rallied after Drop on Apple News
I want to get to the nonfarm payroll number. This is the big number, and, maybe, because the initial number was good, the market rallied. Although, I think the real reason that the market rallied in the morning is because we had a big rally in Asia last night. There were some rumors that there would be some type of trade deal between China and the United States, and when that rumor came out, everybody bid up these Asian stocks. So the U.S. stock market, U.S. futures got bid up. So initially U.S. futures were way down on the Apple news, but then, when this rumors came out about a trade deal, then the markets rallied.
Hopes for Trade Deal with China
Part of the reason that people wanted to believe that there might be a trade deal is because everybody knows the election is coming up on Tuesday, and maybe the President is looking to do something between now and then in order to: a) make the market rally, but b) be able to claim victory. Like" aha! another deal like the USMCA - I got rid of NAFTA, and we have this new deal which is basically the same deal we had before, just with a different name, but he's able to pretend that he kept some kind of promise and now we've got a great deal, Whereas the old NAFTA was the worse deal in the history of deals, the one that he's got, which is virtually identical, is the best deal in the history of deals.
No Deal
I thought maybe he would do something similar to that with China. Come up with some ridiculous agreement that basically does nothing, then talk about how great it is… but apparently, not. Maybe they can still do that on Monday if they really want to wait to the last minute and come up with some kind of bogus deal… But people believe the rumors, but then this morning Larry Kudlow was on CNBC early in the morning before the open basically shooting that rumor down, saying there was no deal.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/3/2018 • 34 minutes, 29 seconds
Bulls Ain’t Afraid of No Bear Market – Ep. 407
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes
https://www.branddrivendigital.com/how-to-rate-and-review-a-podcast-in-itunes/
The Bulls Had No Fear
Today may be Halloween, but the Bulls had no fear. The U.S. stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day - the first time for the month of October. A lot of traders are probably happy that the month of October is over. Despite the back to back rally, this is still the biggest decline in a month for NASDAQ since 2008.
The Market Gave Back Gains Before Close
In fact, the rally off of yesterday's lows, I think was better than 1100 points. We had this huge gain, and even though today, the Dow was up better than 200 points (241 points), it was up about 450 points going into the last hours. So we did give back a couple of hundred points of that gain, which, to me, looked pretty weak. The NASDAQ had a 2% higher close; it was up 144 points. But you look at the Russell 2000 - much smaller gain there. That index up just a third of 1%. The Dow transports, they were barely positive. Not even 2 tenths of 1 percent - a 15 point rise in the Dow Transports.
Bear Market Correction
Nonetheless, all the Bulls were out in force on the financial networks claiming that the correction is over. Everybody was confident that the lows are in; that this big back to back rally is proof that you'd better buy now, otherwise you're going to miss the rally, and this is a typical correction, and now it has run its course. You know what? If this really was the "end of the correction", most likely, there wouldn't be so many people so confident that it was over. You'd have a lot more fear, especially on a Halloween. The fact that there is no fear, to me, shows that it is more likely that this is not the end of the correction but the beginning of the bear market. And that this rally is the correction. In bull markets, the market going down is a correction, because the trend is still positive. In a bear market, it's the opposite: the rallies are the correction.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/1/2018 • 40 minutes, 55 seconds
FANG’s Take a Bite Out of the Market – Ep. 406
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes
Dow Swings More Than 900 Points
Well we didn't have a Black Monday today, but we did have a pretty big selloff, especially if you measure the decline from the early morning pop to the late afternoon drop. I think it was better than a 900 point selloff. Earlier this morning the Dow Jones was up about 350 points, and I think halfway through the final hour, we were down as much as 560 points. Now, we managed to recoup a good chunk of those late day losses in the final half hour, with the Dow down just 245 points. Just over 1%. The NASDAQ trimmed its loss to 116 points - 1.63%. Of course, all the analysts are focusing on the fact that we didn't close on the lows! "Hey, it's strong; look, we had a huge rally, impressive rally off the lows!"
A Downside Reversal
There was nothing impressive about that rally. This actually was a downside reversal. Remember we were all talking last week about the upside reversal that wasn't? When the market was way down, and then it only closed a little bit down? That's not a reversal. Today was a reversal. We were way up, and we closed way down. That is a real downside reversal, and that's far more significant than the meaningless, fictitious reversal that we had last week.
Warning Signs Ignored
Look at some of these individual stocks: Boeing, last week, which was one of the only Dow stocks that actually had a good day - remember it had better than expected earnings, and Boeing went up? It was down almost over 7% today - Boeing getting killed. IBM, though, a much bigger deal: down 4%. A new 52-week low - multi-year low. This should have been a warning sign right out of the gate. It's kind of amazing that people ignored the news that came out over the weekend on IBM and they bought the market anyway.
Red Hat Hail Mary
IBM announced that it was buying a company called, Red Hat, and it's an all cash deal. They are way over-paying for this company. Now IBM is the poster child for stock buybacks. And the fact that they are throwing this Hail Mary by over-paying for this company really shows you that time is running out.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/30/2018 • 43 minutes, 40 seconds
Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Look Carefully at the Price Index
The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the New York Fed was looking for. But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%.
Calling B.S. on that Number
Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%. We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election. Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate.
Largest Trade Deficit in History
I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade. Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war. I talked about that. That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history.
Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years
The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years. What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/27/2018 • 37 minutes, 31 seconds
A Record Trade Deficit Is Not Winning – Ep. 404
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Merchandise Trade Deficit Largest Trade Deficit on Record
Today's rally had to overlook the bad news that came out today. I was watching CNBC this morning just before the news was announced and the anchor said, "We've got a lot of news coming out at 8:30 and I am going to go over the news items in order of importance. The first news item was the Durable Goods numbers (+0.8%), and then they went over the weekly jobless claims (202,000) and wholesale inventories (+1%). That was it. That was all they reported. They left out the most important number that came out at 8:30, which was the Merchandise Trade Deficit ($26 billion - largest trade deficit on record). But as far as CNBC is concerned, the trade deficit is immaterial. It doesn't even matter what the trade deficit is. In a way, they are right. because the markets couldn't give a damn.
People Don't Recognize that the Trade Deficit is a Bad Thing
At one point in time, the trade deficit was the most important number that came out every month. It was more important than the Non-Farm Payroll number. That's when people were smart enough to recognize that a trade deficit is actually a bad thing. But Donald Trump has made the trade deficit a big part of his Presidency. It was a big part of his campaign. You would think that maybe CNBC would consider the trade deficit important enough to even mention. If they were presenting the numbers in order of importance, at least mention it 4th, but they don't even mention it at all. That's how unimportant the trade deficit is.
Durable Goods Up Only Because of Defense Spending
But the Durable Goods number that came out (+0.8%) was reported as a good number because it was a beat. They were looking for -.5%. But the main reason that the headline beat was because of military orders - defense spending: aircraft. But if you take all that stuff out and you just looked at core capital goods, they were looking at an increase of .5% and we got a decrease of .1%. So the only reason the number went up is because the U.S. government took on more debt to buy more military equipment.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/26/2018 • 50 minutes, 31 seconds
Will Fed Capitulation Forestall Stock Market Crash? – Ep. 403
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Bearish Signal
So much for yesterday's dead cat bounce. All of the U.S. stock market averages came plunging down today, in fact they all closed below yesterday's lows. So even though we had those big rallies off the lows, today, we lost the entire gain and closed lower than yesterday's low point. That is is the most bearish signal you can get.
Yesterday's Short Covering
Remember on yesterday's podcast, I was not impressed with yesterday's rally. I thought it was a typical "reversal Tuesday" rally that should be ignored. To me, it looked like a lot of short covering, particularly if you look at the type of stocks that were being bought. They seemed to me that they were the stocks that had a lot of shorts, so the shorts saw a big gap down and decided to take an opportunity to cover. But, when you have a lot of shorts who cover, that's actually bearish, because during the next decline, they are no longer there to buy. That's why this next decline could be particularly vicious. I don't think the decline is finished; as I said, I think it is just getting started, unless the Federal Reserve is going to come in and change the nature of the game,
Biggest Single NASDAQ Decline since 2008 Financial Crisis
The Dow was down over 600 points today - 608 points. That is a percentage decline of 2.41%. Of course there were a lot of stocks that did a lot worse. Earnings today from AT&T - that stock was down just over 8%. I think there were also some worries concerning the slow growth of subscribers at DirecTV, a recent AT&T acquisition. Also, UPS, came out with disappointing earnings today. The stock was down 5.5% today. Boeing might be the only stock that was positive today, up 1.3% - a beat.
The fact that this was the biggest single day decline in Nasdaq since the 2008 financial crisis means that today's drop is larger than any point drop that we had during the 2008 financial crisis. You have to go all the way back to the bursting of the dot com bubble. Something big is happening when you see this kind of drop. The market technically couldn't be weaker.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/25/2018 • 33 minutes, 45 seconds
Guns & Butter to the Moon – Ep. 402
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
A Big Constituency of Highly Indebted People
The fact that you have created this big constituency of highly indebted young people - they're like indentured servants. The government now loans them the money and now they are in debt to the government for the rest of their lives. But now the government can say, "Vote for me and we'll let you off the hook!"
You Don't Have to Repay Your Loan as Long as You Keep Re-Electing Me
Or they might have some other program where they do not completely wipe out the debt; maybe if you work for government for a certain number of years - maybe they will try to craft the program in such a way to make sure that these young people constantly vote for whichever politician promises to keep the wolves at bay: "You don't have to repay your loan as long as you keep re-electing me." It is another group of bought voters. Just like Social Security. Why does Trump want to pander to Social Security? Why does he want to say, "We're never going to cut Social Security."? He wants all the people who are on Social Security to vote for him, or to vote Republican.
At Least the Democrats Say the Rich Are Going to Pay for It
No one wants to take anything from anybody. Nobody wants to give anybody the bad news. Trump wants to be all things to all people. Everybody gets everything; no one has to sacrifice. No one has to pay. Everybody eats free lunch - no one has to cook it. At least the Democrats say the rich are going to pay for it. Trump says nobody's going to pay for it. It's all going to magically appear because of this booming economy which isn't even booming. At least the Democrats' lie seems a little more believable. They are not saying the money's coming from nothing, it's coming from these rich people who are lucky enough to have all this money and we can just take this money from them - they're not going to miss it because they don't need it anyway, and somehow it's enough for everybody to have everything that they want.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/24/2018 • 58 minutes, 24 seconds
How Many Canaries Have to Die? – Ep. 401
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes
Overwhelming Evidence of a Weakening Economy
The Dow Jones was the only one of the major indexes to close the day higher. The S&P was down slightly, we had larger declines in the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. More importantly than the movements that we've just seen on the day, or even the week, look at what's happened thus far during the month of October, which I had been warning on my podcast. It looked like there could be a weak October, given where we were in the market, given how ridiculous the sentiment was in the face of overwhelming evidence that the economy was weakening
Russell 2000 Down 9.2%
If you look at the numbers, the Dow Jones is down 3.8% so far on the month. That's the best performing of the averages. The S&P, down about 4.7% on the month, Nasdaq Composite down 7.4%; the transport down 8.3% and the Russell 2000 - 9.2% decline. Remember, the Russell 2000 is where everybody wanted to buy. Earlier last month the talk was that you needed to be in the Russell 2000 because the rest of the world was in trouble, you needed a safe haven from all the turmoil around the world, that the U.S was going to win the trade war, and of course, the companies that had the least vulnerabilities to the trade war were the domestic companies that weren't multinational and those are the companies that you would find in the Russell 2000. Small-company U.S. stocks - so people were piling in. Those are the stocks that have done the worst. Down 9.2% on the month.
Gold, Gold Stocks Up; Bond Yields Continue to Rise
While stocks were going down, gold was going up. Gold is up about 3% so far during the month of October. Gold stocks doing even better - GDX and GDXJ each up about 8% so far on the month.
Bond yields continue to rise; they were higher today; higher on the week; higher on the month and as bond yields are rising, the dollar is also rising, but ever so slightly. We're not seeing that much of a gain in the dollar. But ultimately, the dollar is going to turn around when people finally what should have been obvious all along: that the U.S. economy is not nearly as strong as is generally believed. It is certainly not as strong as the Federal Reserve is claiming.
Markets Fall as Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet
The FOMC minutes were out earlier this week and once again, the Fed is displaying extreme confidence in the U.S. economy as it continues to maintain its stance that it will continue to raise interest rates; that it is going to continue with its plan to shrink its balance sheet. Of course that is the real reason that the markets continue to fall. The Fed continues to threaten the markets with higher interest rates.
When You're in a Bear Market, You Don't Need an Excuse for the Market to Go Down
Yesterday, we had a pretty big drop in the markets intra-day; the Dow surrendered some gains and a lot of the people in the media were trying to figure out what was to blame. They were pointing to speeches that Larry Kudlow made where he was talking tough against China or Trump talking tough or even European Union getting tough with Italy - I forget all the various excuses.
But, you know what? the market would have probably fallen even if none of those things had happened. When y0u're in a bear market, and I think there's a very good chance we're in a bear market, you don't need an excuse for the market to go down. The market just goes down.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/20/2018 • 43 minutes, 45 seconds
Fake Accounting Trumps Fake News – Ep. 400
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes
Thanks to Listeners for 400 Episodes of The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
For those of you who say that Peter Schiff does Podcasts when the Dow is down, Dow Jones was up 547 points today. This is my 400th episode of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast. I want to take a moment to thank my audience - everybody who has been listening to the podcast. Especially to the people who have listened to all 400 episodes. By the way, if you missed a few, they're all archived.
Check out all the Archived Episodes of the Shows
Some people have been listening for a lot longer. I was doing a daily talk show for 3 years or so. I started it after my failed Senate campaign to continue to get my ideas out there. But I eventually did not have enough hours in the day to commit to be at a mic for 2 hours each day doing a live show, even though I enjoyed it - we had a lot of guests and I took a lot of calls. Before I ran for Senate, I did a once a week call-in show, Wall Street Unspun. Some people who are listening to the podcast go all the way back to the Wall Street Unspun days. A Special thanks to the people who have listened all of these years.
Please Take the Time to Rate and Review my Podcast
Remember, if you have been listening to my podcasts, certainly if you've listened to all of them, do me a favor and rate the podcast on iTunes or whatever platform you use to access my podcast. Rate the podcast, make comments about the podcast, put 5 stars down there.
Market Up, But We May Still be in Bear Territory
There is so much overwhelming evidence that the bull market is over, and that's what I want to focus on. The housing stocks had a rally today but the auto stocks are still very weak. The economic data that I've been seeing has been weak but nonetheless, as I said earlier, the Dow was up 547 points, that was 2.17%. But the NASDAQ Composite was up 214 points - 2.89% on the day. The Russell 2000, which had been getting beaten up was up 43 points today - 2.82%.
Gold Steady, Dollar Negative Most of the Day
Gold was only off a couple of bucks. It started the day higher, 5-6-7 dollars, but in the face of this tremendous rally, gold kind of lost its bid. But it didn't really sell off. It was only down a little bit. So gold stocks in general were down, but not much. The dollar spent almost the entire day negative.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/17/2018 • 55 minutes, 7 seconds
Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin Breaks Down – Ep. 399
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference
https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/
A Very Volatile and Technically Weak Trading Day for the Dow
Here I am for the third day in a row doing a podcast. It's market volatility that has brought me to the mic yet again. The Dow Jones down 525 points; a very volatile and technically weak trading day for the Dow. The market opened down, we quickly sold off, a couple of hundred, but then we rallied back! We got positive. I think we were up a hundred, maybe more, and then going into the last hour or near the last hour we sold off hard. the Dow was down I think close to 700, I'm not sure exactly, but then, we got a rally. Not all the way back to unchanged, but then in the final 15 minutes of so the Dow rolled over once again to close just off the lows. Down 525 points. Over 2% down. Not as big a drop as yesterday's drop, but coming on the back of yesterday's drop, it adds up.
Some of the Tech Stock Actually Rallied Today
The transports, not down as much, another 1.5% added to yesterday's loss. NASDAQ - some of the tech stock actually rallied today, so that helped the NASDAQ; some were down, though. NASDAQ down 93 points, 1.25%. Russell 2000 down 30 points. That was just under 2%.
If the Stock Market Went down Enough, There Would Be a Bid in the Bond Market
The Bond market was actually up today. Finally we had a day where people were buying bonds. But I said this was going to happen. Eventually, if the stock market went down enough, there would be a bid in the bond market. That's exactly what happened. If the stock market stops falling, then the bond market is going to resume its descent. This is the same dance that we were doing earlier in the year, that eventually came to an end, but we're back where we started from.
So if we get stocks going up, then interest rates are going to go back up, which is going to scare the market. Now they're going to go back down, and so now people will buy bonds.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/12/2018 • 28 minutes, 40 seconds
The Bear Market Has Begun, Recession to Follow – Ep. 398
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference
https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/
831 Point Rout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
If you listened to Friday's podcast, I mentioned that I thought I would probably be doing a lot of podcasts this week. I did one yesterday, and I am doing another one today because my feeling about the stock market was confirmed today with an 831 point rout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 3.15%. This is the biggest decline that the Dow has had since that 1000+ point drop that we had in February. I think it is maybe the third biggest down day ever, point-wise. Percentage-wise it's not even close.
NASDAQ Down Over 4%
The DJIA actually did a lot better than a lot of the other averages. The Dow Jones transports were down just over 4%; 445 points. the NASDAQ was down over 4% as well - 315 points. Weakness across the board in the stock market today. And it's not just the homebuilders and the autos. I've been talking about those sectors as leading indicators and, yes, many of those stocks made new 52-week lows today as well. But they were not the worst performers on the day.
Financials Helped Lead the Declines
The financials were helping to lead the decline. Again we have Morgan Stanley at a new 52-week low, down 3.3%. Goldman Sachs down 3.6%, a new 52-week low. But really, the biggest losers on the day were the tech stocks. These have been the stand-outs. This is what has been holding up the market - the FAANG stocks, all of these technology infotech stocks - and a lot of people were actually describing them irrationally as a "safe havens". I couldn't believe it when people were saying that tech stocks were the new "safe havens". When you hear stuff like that, you know you're close to the end.
FAANG Stocks Selling in After-Hours Trading
If you look at what some of these darlings did today, and I'm looking at the after-hours prices, too, because they're selling. More selling is going on now, after the bell. But look at NVIDIA, down over 9%, Amazon down 7.3%, Netflix down 10% on the day. AMD down 11% - Twitter down almost 9%, Apple down 5.5%, Intel 4.5%, Cisco, 4.7%, Facebook down almost 5%. this is basically one day plus an hour of aftermarket trading.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/11/2018 • 41 minutes, 34 seconds
Why Democrats Hate the Constitution – Ep. 397
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference
https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/
Democrat Women Screaming in Agony
Brett Kavanaugh, over the weekend was confirmed by the Senate, and there were some Democrat women in the gallery watching the vote and they were just screaming in agony; that this was such a terrible thing. I don't think we've ever seen anything like that. They had to have the Sargent at Arms constantly removing people during the vote. The vote passed 50-48, on party lines.
These women were not screaming in pain because they think that a sexual predator is now on the Supreme Court, but apparently they think that Roe v. Wade will be overturned, and that abortions will be illegal in the U.S. This is all a bunch of nonsense. This is not going to happen. This is all much ado about nothing.
Liberal Judges Who Make the Constitution Be Anything They Want It to Mean
What it really all boils down to is that the Left wants a certain type of judges on the Supreme Court. They want liberal judges who believe in big government and all these social programs. They want these judges on the court to have a loose view of the Constitution, that the Constitution means whatever you want it to mean.
What the Republicans want is to appoint justices who will uphold the Constitution - NOT their political agendas. There's a reason for that. If you are a Conservative, you like the Constitution the way it is written. You like the law. If you are a Liberal, you hate the Constitution. The Constitution is a roadblock to everything you want to accomplish.
The Constitution Was Written to Limit the Power of Government
Remember: the Constitution was written to limit the power of government. That's where the laws apply. The Constitution is not about individuals. The Constitution is a law that was meant to apply to the government. to limit the power of the Federal government. To a lesser extent the states, because the Constitution does prohibit the states from doing certain things, but whatever is not prohibited, the states are free to do unless they are barred by their individual constitutions.
The Whole Principle Was to Have Weak Federal Government
What the Constitution does do is that it gives the U.S. government specific powers that are very few and enumerated. The Constitution says that if the Federal government doesn't have the power to do something, if it is not written in the Constitution that the government can do it, then they can't do it. The whole principle was to have weak Federal government and most of what governments do was on the state level. They didn't even want big government at the state level. Most of what the Federal government would do was in war time.
A Small Government Can't Give People Free Stuff
So if you are a Conservative and you believe in limited government, well then you like the Constitution. But if you are a Democrat or a "Liberal", you want to use the government to right wrongs of society. You want it to even things out, to redistribute wealth, to provide a social safety net, if you believe in giving people free stuff (free education, healthcare). A small government can't give people free stuff. If you believe in Social Security and Medicare and Obamacare and the minimum wage, all that stuff is unconstitutional.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/10/2018 • 58 minutes, 28 seconds
Did Rising Rates Just Prick the Bubble? – Ep. 396
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
The Catalyst is Rising Interest Rates
October is just one week old and the carnage on Wall Street has already begun. I wonder if the October complacency is beginning to be shaken with the down move that we see. Now, the Dow Jones is not down very much; in fact, it barely fell on the week; but the S&P was down about 1%. But the NASDAQ was down more than 3% on the week. The catalyst is rising interest rates, which of course, the markets have been ignoring up until Wednesday afternoon, when all of a sudden somebody started to worry about the markets.
A Weak Thursday and Friday Led to 1987 Black Monday
The big declines happened on Thursday and then again today. The declines are not really big; not by the standards of an October crash, but we still have several weeks left for a big down move in October. We had a weak Friday, a weak Thursday - that's exactly what we had in October of 1987, which led to Black Monday.
Economy Far More Vulnerable to a Rate Shock
Remember, the backdrop there was rising interest rates. We have interest rates rising now, of course they're not nearly as high as they were back then. But percentage-wise, this is probably even higher, given where we're starting from. Of course, the economy is much more highly leveraged now than it was in 1987 and it's actually far more vulnerable to a rate shock now, than it was then. Of course, back then, people were worried about rising trade deficits - they're even bigger now than they were back then.
Investors Not Smart Enough to Worry About Trade
In fact, we got the trade deficit out today for August. Another jump following the jump we had in July. I think it was the biggest increase in 6 months. Imports are rising, exports are falling. It's bad news on trade. People were worried about trade back in 1987. They're not smart enough to worry about it now, but they should. The trade deficit is probably more important today than it was back then.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/6/2018 • 51 minutes, 42 seconds
Trump’s NAFTA Rebrand Is a Marketing Fraud – Ep. 395
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference
https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/
NAFTA was the Worst Deal in World History?
I want to talk about Donald Trump's new trade deal. When Donald Trump was running for President, he said that NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) was the worst trade deal ever negotiated ever by anyone in world history. It wasn't just the worst trade deal that America got into, it was the worst trade deal that anybody ever got into.
I don't know how many trade deals Donald Trump actually studied, and whether he compared them to NAFTA to know that NAFTA was worse than any other deal that had ever been negotiated, but that was his claim. In fact, even in the ceremony where he took credit for the new deal that he negotiated he repeated that NAFTA was the worst deal ever negotiated.
We Went from a Good Name to a Lousy Name
Then he unveiled his deal, which he now calls the greatest deal ever negotiated. So we went from the worst deal in the history of deals to the best deal in the history of deals. The problem is, it is basically the same deal! The only thing that has really changed is the name. We went from a good name to a lousy name, and the funny thing about it is Donald Trump is claiming that the name is better. The old name was NAFTA. The new name is USMCA. Us-ma-ca! Us-ma-ca? What kind of name is that? We basically went from a nice name to a ridiculous name.
NAFTA Re-Branded with a Worse Name
But the bottom line is that's probably the most substantive difference between the two deals. Pretty much, it is the same deal. Yet this is the greatest deal in history and the old deal was the worst deal ever. This is standard operating procedure for Donald Trump. Everything is great now that he is President. Donald Trump pretended everything was awful before he was elected, and now, he's made everything fantastic, but he hasn't done anything.
You listen to Fox News, they're talking about this thing like it is the greatest thing since sliced bread. It is NAFTA re-branded with a worse name.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/3/2018 • 58 minutes, 37 seconds
Could Soaring Twin Deficits Portend October Surprise? – Ep. 394
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference
https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/
Ominous October
Today was the end of the month of September; it's also the end of the third quarter we are now beginning the final quarter of the year. When we come back to trading next week, we will be in the month of October, and as I mentioned on my last podcast, we have had some substantial stock market declines in October, obviously not every October has a big drop, in fact most of the Octobers don't, but some of the most notable declines have occurred in the month of October, including the crash of 1987 and the crash of 1929.
You'd Think There Would Be More Concern
But given that our valuations are probably higher now than they were at those prior peaks, you would think that there would be more concern right now about the possibility of another October surprise in the way of a major decline in the stock market. But the stock market finished the day positive - on the week it was a mixed picture. The Dow Jones was down a bit and the NASDAQ was up on a week that the Federal Reserve did, in fact, raise interest rates yet again, as expected. Now we're at 2-2.25%.
Italy's Economy Putting Pressure on the Euro
The yield, though, on the long bond actually went down, in fact, it was down a little bit again today (Buy the rumor sell the fact). The dollar continued to rise and I thought that maybe we would have seen a dollar sell-off following the rate hike. But I think the reason is because of the weakness in the euro, the result of what's going on in Italy. The Italian market is under a lot of pressure because the Italian government is running deficits that exceed 2% deficit guideline imposed by the Eurozone. I think that Italy's proposed new budget deficit is 2.4% of Italian GDP. This puts pressure on Italy which is also putting pressure on the euro.
Our Debt to GDP Is Twice That of Italy
It's interesting that if America tried to get into the EU, we couldn't because out debt to GDP is about 5% and that's now. It will soar well over 10% in the next recession. Our debt is twice as high relative to our GDP as Italy's. If we keep running trade deficits like the trade deficit that we printed this month, we are going to be having a serious crisis in the dollar. It was bad trade deficits and concerns about the dollar was one of the biggest reasons we had the 1987 stock market crash.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/29/2018 • 55 minutes, 31 seconds
The Hike that Breaks the Market’s Back – Ep. 393
Eighth Interest Rate Hike
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the eighth time, today. The rate is now 2 to 2.25 percent, so I guess the midpoint is 2.125%. The move was highly anticipated, of course, even I expected the Fed to raise rates. At this point I had been expecting that for some time ever since the Fed first began raising interest rates it became apparent that they would continue to move rates higher.
"Accommodative" is Out
The only thing that was potentially significant about this rate hike was the removal of the word "accommodative" by the Fed in their official statement to describe the current state of monetary policy. I initially thought that that was a significant removal of the word. Obviously, the Federal Reserve thinks very carefully about the written statements, so if they chose to remove a word, that was there, and they know that people parse through these words with a microscope. The fact that the word was missing, obviously by intention - it wasn't just an accident - that they're trying to send a message.
Maybe Neutral?
What I first thought the message was, and I still believe that was in fact the message (even if the Fed is trying to backpedal), but that the Federal Reserve views a 2% as neither accommodative nor restrictive. Maybe neutral. The Fed now believes that rates are high enough that they would no longer be described as accommodative.
Interest Still Below Inflation: Negative Rates
Meanwhile, rates are at 2%. Two percent in my mind is still a highly accommodative monetary policy, especially when the annual rate of inflation, even the way the government measures it, is above 2%. That means you still have negative rates of interest. How can you describe negative real rates as anything but accommodative?
Powell: "Don't Read Anything Into The Omission of Accommodative"
Powell was specifically asked about the removal of the word accommodative from the statement during the Q&A period that followed the official announcement. Basically, what Powell said was, "Don't read anything into the removal of that word".Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/27/2018 • 48 minutes, 20 seconds
Divided Government Will Not Be Bullish for This Market – Ep. 392
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference
https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/
Divided Government is Good?
If the Democrats get control of Congress, which is a likely occurrence, what I'm hearing now is that this is bullish for the stock market! The stock market bulls are saying that if we have divided government that this is historically positive for the markets. So even if the Republicans lose control of the House, and maybe even the Senate, it's OK, because it's divided government and that is good.
Hoping for More Deregulation
This is a bunch of nonsense. Has divided government historically been a positive? I think so, in that when you have a divided government you are less likely to make progress in legislation and since most legislation is harmful, the less legislation you get is better. But in the situation we have now, the hope is that we will have deregulation. That the progress that Trump will make will be in removing regulation. Obviously if the Democrats take control of Congress, if you were hoping for more deregulation then your divided government will put a stop to that. So if divided government keeps government from getting smaller then it is not a good thing. If divided government stops the government from getting bigger, then maybe you could say it is positive.
Building an Entire Stock Market Rally on Trump's Agenda
But if you have built an entire stock market rally off of the supposed success of Donald Trump and his agenda, and his ability to get his agenda through Congress, that ability is going to be substantially curtailed, if not completely eliminated if the Democrats control Congress. Nothing that Trump wants to do will get through Congress so if you've been betting that it would, then the Republicans losing control of Congress is definitely a bad thing.
Not The Contract with America
This is not Newt Gingrich and The Contract with America, when Republican control of Congress forced Bill Clinton to move to the right and maybe stopped some of his big government agenda that would have gotten through a Democratic Congress. When you had the Republican Congress putting a brake on Clinton's agenda, moving the nation more to the center, yes, that was a positive for the markets.
We Don't Want to Even Fathom a Negative Influence on the Stock Market
But why would losing a business-friendly Republican Congress to the Democrats, to Socialist Democrats, why is that bullish for stocks? How could you possibly think that is bullish for stocks if you think what we have now is bullish, and we lose a chunk of that, that just shows you that it doesn't matter what happens, these analysts are always going to say it's bullish. No matter what happens, it's bullish for stocks, because stocks are going up. We don't want to even fathom the possibility that anything happening would be negative for stocks.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/25/2018 • 48 minutes, 56 seconds
The Trump Tariff Put Will Expire Worthless – Ep. 391
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference
https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/
Illusion will be Replaced with Harsh Reality
This is dangerous stuff. This is the same thing thing that was being said when George Bush was President. Just because you're a Republican you don't have to claim that anything that was done by another Republican is great, in order to make the Democrats look bad. Ultimately that comes back and bites you because you loose credibility when the economy turns down. When it turns out that it was just a bubble, it was just an illusion, and when the illusion is replaced with harsh reality, you've got nothing and it makes it easier for the other side to scapegoat Capitalism for the problems and to hold out more government as the solution.
The Trump Tariff Put
One of the more ridiculous ideas that are floating around now is the existence of the so-called "Trump Tariff Put". I've heard a lot of talk about that and basically, it goes like this: Trump is very concerned about the stock market; yes, he is threatening these tariffs - we have additional tariffs. If the tariffs actually prove to be harmful to the economy or to the stock market or to both, Trump can simply soften his stance, or maybe just surrender in the trade war. Just give up on the tariffs and the stock market will come roaring back. If the stock market is falling because of the tariffs and then we take the tariffs away, there's no reason the stock market won't just rally back up. So in other words, there's this put. It' s heads, the market wins, tails nobody loses.
Even If the Market Goes Down, You're Going to Get Bailed Out
As long as the tariffs aren't doing any damage, the markets keep going up, but if it turns out that the tariffs do damage, then they get rid of them, and the market resumes, even if it temporarily went down. So that is the Trump put, just like the Greenspan put, which became the Bernanke put, the Yellen put (whether or not there's a Powell put...). The idea was, "Hey, if the market ever falls, the Federal Reserve will slash rates to make it go back up again. So you can't lose, even if the market goes down, you're going to get bailed out - whether by the Federal Reserve or by Donald Trump.
If You're Looking to Invent Another Reason to Be Bullish and Not to Be Worried…
I think this type of attitude is more just wishful thinking. It's the kind of attitude that permeates a mania, a bubble. It's the fearless, "Hey if you're looking to invent another reason to be bullish and not to be worried…" If this stock market really starts to fall, it's not going to matter if we call off the tariffs. If the market is falling, chances are it is falling not simply because of the tariffs. The tariffs might be one element that is a problem for the markets, but it may simply be one of a number, and just getting rid of the tariffs will not be enough to turn around a bear market in stocks, which is long overdue.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/22/2018 • 55 minutes, 27 seconds
The Camel Owns the Tent – Ep. 390
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Sacrificed on the Altar of Political Correctness
I want to spend the rest of this podcast talking about politics; in particular, what's going on with Brett Kavanaugh and his fading chances of sitting on the Supreme Court. It appears that he may be sacrificed on the altar of political correctness. I also blame the Republicans for allowing this to happen - to have fallen into this trap; not just with Kavanaugh.
No Sense of Proportion
This has been slowly building, the camel's nose under the tent, and once the Democrats play this card - and this is not the racist card this is the rape card, the violence against women card. there's a zero tolerance now. You can't even create the appearance that one is somehow tolerant of any kind of sexual abuse against women. There is no sense of proportion.
Allegation About a 35-Year Old Event
There was an allegation that became more significant 2 days ago when a previously unnamed woman who claimed that BrettKavanaugh assaulted her when they were in high school. Now, of course, Kavanaugh is 53 years old now, so this is over 35 years ago.
There Was a Lot of Alcohol at This Party
Kavanaugh denied the initial allegation. Initially, the identity of the woman was unknown, as was the nature of the "sexual assault". So Kavanaugh denied it. Now we actually have a name: Christine Blasey Ford, 51, a professor of Psychology, a registered Democrat. She has come forward now with the details of the encounter and the lack of details, because much of it she does not recall. After all, it happened 35 years ago, and according to the accuser, there was a lot of alcohol at this party. She says that Kavanaugh was drunk, so she was probably drunk herself. I don't know if she has admitted to being drunk - there was alcohol at the party and the boys were drinking it. It stands to reason that she probably had some alcohol herself.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/19/2018 • 48 minutes, 21 seconds
The Next Economic Hurricane Will Be a Category 5 – Ep. 389
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Making the Rich Pay
Julia Salazar, another Democratic Socialist defeated Martin Dilan in the NY Senate primary. The only reference to taxes on her website was to "make the rich pay their fair share". That's it. Nothing about what specifically she wants to raise, by how much she wants to raise it and how much money is going to come it. This is going to be provided, that is going to be provided, and the people vote for her! This is how dumb the electorate has become.
Shift to Democratic Socialism
This is what I have been warning about on this podcast. This shift in the political spectrum. The Democrats are moving to the left. Democratic incumbents are going to be replaced by Socialists or will have to openly embrace Socialism themselves in order to maintain their seats. This is very dangerous, because when it does hit the fan, and it should hit the fan before the next elections a Democrat is going to be the next President, and the Democrats are going to control Congress. It's not going to be the Democratic party of Bill Clinton or even Barack Obama. It will be the Democratic party of Bernie Sanders.
Sovereign Debt Crisis and Dollar Crisis
We're going back to the anniversary of the Financial Crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the next crisis, which will be a sovereign debt crisis and a dollar crisis. It's going to be much much worse. Bailouts are not going to work; stimulus is not going to work.
Injecting Stimulus Directly into the Rears of the Democratic Voters
But they're not going to try the same type of stimulus. They're not going to talk about injecting monetary heroin into the banking system to create a wealth effect. They're going to inject the stimulus right into the rear ends of the Democratic voters. They're going to want to give the money directly to the people, whether it is through some kind of basic income program or government make-work or forgiving student loans. Whatever they do, it will be about showering money that the Fed creates out of thin air and putting it directly in the pockets of the voters. That is just pure unadulterated inflation.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/15/2018 • 1 hour, 7 minutes, 16 seconds
Yes to Socialism Means No to Freedom – Ep. 388
CHECK OUT Buying Bitcoin is Like Buying Air
https://youtu.be/XmMQAuO62gI
Another Round of Tax Cuts
Now the Republicans are talking about another round of tax cuts. Just in time for the November election. Whether or not these tax cuts actually get passed is anyone's guess, but it will be an issue on the campaign trail, either because they delivered the tax cut or because the only thing standing in the way of a tax cut is the Democrats. Remember the individual tax cuts were passed the last time are temporary - they phase out. The corporate rates do not phase out. Of course, all tax cuts are temporary because any Congress can raise taxes any time it wants, so it's just semantics.
Temporary Tax Cuts Were a Lie
The reason they had to make the individual tax cuts temporary was so that they can pretend that the increase in the budget deficits was not going to be as high as everybody knew that it was. The presumption was that Congress would vote to extend them. Here we are, not even a year has gone by and the Republicans already want to come back and make them permanent, which shows that the temporary tax cuts were a lie.
Government Revenues up 1% - Government Spending Up 7%
The August budget deficit was $211 billion - nearly double the deficit that we had in the same month last year. In the first 8 months of the year, the deficit is $895 billion. This is a trillion dollar deficit during a supposedly booming economy. If we can't generate surpluses in a booming economy, imagine the enormity of the deficits when the economy is not booming,. Imagine how bad the deficits will be when the economy is actually in a recession. In this most recent year, the deficit is $222 billion higher than the previous year and government spending is up 7%, yet revenues only rose 1%. So it is not closing the gap, not by a long shot.
Too Big to Bail
The U.S. government is too big to bail - not too big to fail - too big to bail. Of course the government technically does not need a bailout; it just prints more money. Of course, that's the problem. They will print money that nobody wants and the currency is going to collapse.
Saying Yes to Socialism Says No to Prosperity
Recently on the Bill Maher show Jim Carrey said, "Socialism is great, so why don't the Democrats just embrace it? Say yes to Socialism, already. Now they can come out and openly declare that they are Socialists now because everybody likes it. When you say yes to Socialism, you're saying no to some very important things, like individual liberty, freedom, prosperity. Voters don't know that. They just think Socialism is a bunch of free stuff, and they get more free stuff under Socialism than under Capitalism. People want stuff.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/12/2018 • 47 minutes, 34 seconds
What Are Investors Smoking? – Ep. 387
CHECK OUT Buying Bitcoin is Like Buying Air
https://youtu.be/XmMQAuO62gI
GM Hit New Low for the Year
If you want to look at some of the signals you're getting from the markets, look at the automobile stocks: General Motors and Ford, which are basically the only 2 automobile companies we have left. (Chrysler is now owned by Fiat.) They both hit 52-week lows today and they're both in bear markets. General Motors closed at $33.91 - a new low for the year. The stock was as high as $46.76 in June. The stock is down almost 30% in the last couple of months. It's a bear market.
Ford at a Six-Year Low
The story at Ford is even worse. Ford was up at around $12 a couple of months ago. It is down to $9.27. If you look at its high - it was at $16 in September of 2014. Ford is down to where it was the summer of 2012 - 6 years ago. It's at a 6-year low. If we go any lower we'll be at an . 8-year low.
Two Auto Companies Solidly in Bear Market
So you've got our 2 automobile companies solidly in bear market territory, making new lows. These are vital parts of the economy. There are many industries that feed off these companies, the aftermarket industries. These are the good jobs, the high paying jobs that Trump promised to bring back. Remember he was really campaigning in Detroit and other places where they make cars. These companies are hitting multi-year lows.
Tariffs Aren't Helping Auto Industry
So the tariffs aren't working. The tax cuts aren't working. The auto companies are going down. Remember, stocks are forward looking, so the stocks are basically saying that there is a big slowdown coming in the automobile sector. Profits are not going to be there. Tax cuts are not going to be very valuable if there aren't any profits.
Industry Slowdown in Home Building
Also look at what is happening with the home building companies. All these stocks getting killed - some down over 5% today alone. They are pretty much all in bear market territory. So now the homebuilders are also saying, "The industry is going to slow down."
Autos and Housing Are Not Booming
Those are 2 very important sectors of the economy: housing and autos. If they are on the verge of recession. If the stocks in those sectors are forecasting recession, how is it possible that the U.S. economy is experiencing a "historic boom"? "It's booming like it's never boomed before!" Yet autos and housing are not only not part of the boom, they're actually having a bust. Riddle me that, Batman. How is it that the economy is so strong when these two key sectors are so weak?
Interest Rates and Inflation
Why are these sectors so weak? Well one reason, of course, is rising interest rates. Everybody believes that interest rates are going to keep rising which means more nails in the coffin of the auto sector and the housing sector. And of course, both housing and autos are being hit by inflation because of raw material costs. It's more expensive to build cars - it's even more expensive to build homes.
Tariffs Attacking Our Vendors and Bankers
The tariffs are getting higher. Trump was out today saying he is going to put another $240 billion of tariffs on Chinese products in addition to the $200 billion we already have queued up and yesterday he was talking about going after Japan and we're the ones who have the most to lose by picking all these fights with all the countries that are supplying us the goods we need and loaning us all the money we need. We're basically attacking our vendors and our bankers and somehow think this is a good strategy.
Big Leading Indicators Say Something is Wrong
So you can't have a recession in autos and housing simultaneously and somehow the rest of the U.S. economy is impervious.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/8/2018 • 36 minutes, 45 seconds
Fake News Runs the Gamut – Ep. 386
Another Bear Market Before the Election
The odds are that we are going to have another bear market and we're going to have another recession and the odds are that both are going to start before the next election. What are the odds that Trump can be re-elected if we are in a recession and in a bear market? The only thing that Trump's got going for himself is to talk about how great the economy is, and how high the stock market is. You take that out and what does he have left?
Trump Claims Most Accomplishments Than any other President in History
I was listening to a press conference with the President today, and one of the false claims he made is that he said, "I've accomplished more in the first two years of office than any President in history." Now, I don't know where he is getting this; what exactly has he accomplished as compared to other Presidents' accomplishments. I'll agree, most modern Presidents, to the extent that they accomplish, they accomplish larger government.
We Started with Perfect Government - Small!
We started from a perfect place. We started with limited government, and most of what Presidents have accomplished was to accomplish more government by allowing more legislation to be passed, making government bigger and restricting individual liberty. From that perspective, I like a President who accomplishes nothing. We started with maximum liberty and minimal government. What I want to accomplish is maintaining minimal government.
Shrink Government and Enable Private Sector to be Great Again
When Donald Trump talked about "Making America Great Again", if he actually wanted to do it, restoring our greatness means shrinking government and enabling the private sector to be great again by removing all the burdens that have been placed on it. Has Trump actually done more, good or bad, than any other President? I doubt it.
Who Saved Social Security?
But one of the things that Trump claimed credit for, is that he said he "saved Social Security and Medicare". He said the Democrats wanted to ruin it or get rid of it, and I saved it. What Democrat wants to get rid of Social Security?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/6/2018 • 56 minutes, 35 seconds
Let’s Honor the Labor of the Entrepreneur – Ep. 385
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
What About Employers' Day?
Labor Day is coming up on Monday it it annoys me that we just have a Labor Day and we don't have an Entrepreneur Day. We don't have a day to celebrate the employer. Why is that? The entrepreneurs are the unsung heroes of the American economy. I'm not saying that the workers don't make a contribution, but the assumption, when you talk about workers is that the boss doesn't work. If you look at small businesses, in general, the owner of the business works harder that anybody else. They're usually the first one there and the last one to leave.
Employers Don't All Get the Luxury of a Paycheck
When someone owns a business, they don't have the luxury of collecting a paycheck. They get paid only if there is a profit. They get paid only after all the workers get paid, the landlord gets a check, and if they borrowed money they have to pay interest to the creditor, they have to buy all the equipment, they have to pay all the bills. Sometimes businesses lose money for years while the owner works 18-hour days. So that's who we should be celebrating, but we don't do that.
Politicians Know Where the Votes Are
Why is that? Why do politicians try to get the votes of the employees? That's where all the votes are. Most people are employees. Few people have the know-how to run a business. Try to make a business run, try to organize all the pieces and get it to work, that's a very difficult thing to do, and that's why most people don't even try. Everybody gets a day off with pay, which is great for the worker, but the money to pay everybody not to work comes from the boss.
Thank Your Boss
But want to wish everybody a happy Labor Day, especially all you employers out there. If you have a boss, thank him or her. Express thanks for all the hard work it takes to make sure your paycheck doesn't bounce. Anybody can sign the back of a paycheck. It is much harder to sign the front of a paycheck and to make sure that there is money in the bank so that those paychecks don't bounce.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/1/2018 • 53 minutes, 30 seconds
Hawkish Fed Narrative Slowly Changing – Ep. 384
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Fed Responsible for Most Recent Move Up
I think what's really responsible for this most recent move up is the Fed comments. Now maybe Trump can take credit for those, maybe President Trump was able to get Jerome Powell's mind right after all, when it comes to rate hikes, although, if you look at the coverage from Jackson Hole, most people think that Powell stood strong and was resisting the calls from Trump to go easy on rate hikes and he was standing by the Fed's commitment to raising rates. But that was not really what was said. Not just by Powell, but by other Fed officials who were there who were giving interviews from Jackson Hole.
2% Today Is Not the Same Thing as 2% in the 1990's
To me it was clear, and I mentioned this on my previous podcast about the Fed being willing to let the inflation genie out of the bottle, that the Fed is basically back-tracking on rate hikes that the markets may have anticipated for 2019, by talking about how interest rates are closer to normal now. That 2% today is not the same thing as 2% in the 1990's, not wanting to invert the yield curve, waiting for the whites of inflation's eyes before they actually come out blasting by doing everything that it takes.
Pound of Cure Beats an Ounce of Prevention
I think that the Fed has basically said we are going to sit back, we're not going to be pre-emptive on inflation fighting, we don't think inflation is going to break out, but if we're wrong, then we'll do whatever it takes. Basically the Fed's new attitude is, "Why take an ounce of prevention when you can always use a pound of cure?" Because when it comes to inflation, that ounce of prevention, given how frail the economy actually is and what a big bubble we have, that ounce of prevention could be lethal so let's just forget about that. Somehow we're going to be able to slam the economy with a pound of cure, we're going to be able to get aggressive on fighting inflation if for some reason it ends up being much worse than we thought.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/30/2018 • 56 minutes, 29 seconds
Fed to Let Inflation Genie out of the Bottle – Ep. 383
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Dovish Speech Given by Jerome Powell
The catalyst for the rise in gold and the decline in the dollar, I believe, was the dovish speech given by Jerome Powell today in Jackson Hole. Whether or not the speech is perceived as dovishly as I believe it is, I think we're going to have to see if we are going to get some follow through in the dollar and in the gold market next week. It is critical to see how the markets follow through to today's actions. If I'm right, we could see a big move up in the price of gold next week and a big move down in the dollar.
Hedge Funds Are Net Short Gold
Remember we've got a lot of people who are short gold now for the first time since 2001, the hedge funds were net short gold and I think they could get caught in a losing trade and have to scramble to buy back the gold that they sold. Also, lots of people are now loaded up long the dollar, short the emerging market currencies. But the impetus for this trade, the momentum, had to do with the bullish posture of the Fed and the anticipation that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet.
Second-Guessing Assumptions
But if what Jerome Powell said today causes traders to second guess those assumptions and maybe dial back their expectations for rate hikes - maybe not necessarily the 2 rate hikes that everybody believes are coming in the balance of 2018 - but potentially the idea that there may be no rate hikes at all coming in 2019, that 2018 may be the end of it. In fact, maybe, we won't even get the December rate hike. I think to the extent the traders start to re-price the odds of future rate hikes this could be a big move in the dollar, a big move in gold and again, we have got to see what happens, because maybe this was a one day event… maybe traders are not going to read into Powells comments what I think he meant. But, given the reaction that we had today, I think there is a reasonable chance that that is exactly the way the markets are going to take it. We have so many people on the wrong side of this trade right now that it's a perfect time for the market to swing the other way.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/25/2018 • 42 minutes, 24 seconds
Trump’s Denial of the Obvious Compounds His Mistake – Ep. 382
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Trump Suffers Huge Double Blow
Yesterday, two key people - one the President's former campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted of multiple counts of serious financial crimes, and later that day, Michael Cohen, the President's personal attorney, copped a plea to multiple financial crimes. So you have two key figures in Trump's campaign who are not criminals.
Violation of Campaign Finance Laws
Now, obviously, the President has not admitted to a crime, he has not been convicted of a crime, but still - guilt by association. The most problematic, at least thus far, is the fact that one of the crimes that Micheal Cohen pled guilty to had to do with violation of campaign finance laws. He made two large payments ($100,000+) to two women, one was a porn star and one was an ex-Playboy playmate. Both of these women claimed that they had had affairs with Donald Trump. In order to buy their silence, to pay them off, Donald Trump funneled some money, through Michael Cohen, to these two women.
Trump's Original Story Doesn't Make Sense
Of course, Donald Trump claims that he knew nothing about it - that Michael Cohen just decided on his own to make these payments and Donald Trump didn't even know about it. That was his original story until he changed his story and said he found out about it later. Although, they even have a tape recording of Donald Trump and Michael Cohen discussing how to make the payments before they were made.
Guilt By Association
Of course, Trump's version of the story doesn't make sense. But now Michael Cohen, as part of his plea, said that the payments that he made were made at the direction of the President. Donald Trump asked him to make the payments, he made the payments, and he has now pled guilty to the crime of making those payments. So if it was criminal for Michael Cohen to pay off these women the way he did, well then obviously the President conspired to commit that crime.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/23/2018 • 51 minutes, 36 seconds
Making the Dollar Weak Again – Ep. 381
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Strong Dollar Policy?
There used to be a lot of talk about the so-called Strong Dollar Policy. We had the Strong Dollar Policy when Bill Clinton was President, George Bush; I guess when Barack Obama was President, as well. I've talked about it, I've written about it in Crash Proof, How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse; I talked about it like it was the Loch Ness monster. Everybody knows about it, everybody's heard about it but no one has actually seen it.
We Like the Strong Dollar. A Strong Dollar is Good for America
We didn't actually have an official policy that constituted the strong dollar policy. It was simply talking about the strong dollar being in the national interest, and that was just the mantra that was repeated often by the Secretary of the Treasury or by the President. "We like the strong dollar. A strong dollar is good for America… and that pretty much constituted the policy.
The Trend Was Your Friend
But nonetheless, having the belief that there was some kind of hidden strong dollar policy helped to create confidence in the dollar, even in periods of time when the dollar was declining. Perhaps it would have declined even more had it not been for the belief that there was some kind of strong dollar policy. And of course, when the dollar was rising, the "strong dollar policy" really helped add fuel to the increase because after all, you were riding the policy. So the dollar was going up and that was what the U.S. government wanted, so it was all good. The trend was your friend.
Donald Trump's Weak Dollar Policy
Well, it should be obvious that Donald Trump has a weak dollar policy, whether he wants to name it or not, that's the policy. Of course, the weak dollar policy will not involve actually doing anything, just as the strong dollar policy didn't involve doing anything, but I think the rhetoric will have the same impact in that when the dollar finally starts to fall, it will fall even faster when people think it's a deliberate policy.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/21/2018 • 50 minutes, 19 seconds
Revisionist History Portends Socialist Future – Ep. 380
The Accountable Capitalism Act
Elizabeth Warren unveiled her new idea in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. It is her new bill, called the Accountable Capitalism Act. Of course, I have said this before, there is no truth in advertising when it comes to legislation. Whenever Congress passes a bill, the name of the bill is generally the opposite of what the bill actually does. So if they pass a bill called, "Tax Simplification", that means that they just complicated the tax code. But nobody wants to vote for a bill that's called "Tax Complication", so you can't label it "Tax Complication" when that's what we're doing, so you label it Simplification so everybody will like it.
This is All About Socialism
That's what Elizabeth Warren is doing in her Accountable Capitalism Act. This is not about Capitalism. This is about Socialism. The idea here is that Capitalism is not accountable, and so this act is going to hold Capitalism accountable. In reality, capitalism holds everybody accountable. Under a Capitalist system, everybody is accountable for their own actions. If you screw up, then you have to suffer the consequences. If you make a mistake, it's on you. If your business fails, there's not bail-out.
Capitalism is the Ultimate in Accountability
So Capitalism is the ultimate in accountability. It's fair and everybody is held accountable for their own decisions and their own actions. What Elizabeth Warren wants to do is to take that accountability away. She wants to have the government get in there and take away the accountability inherent in the Capitalist system.
The Socialist Un-Accountability Act
Not only is the act mislabeled, it is actually the Socialist Un-Accountability Act. It wants to take people who would normally be accountable and make them unaccountable. It's all Socialism wrapped up in a Capitalist bow. What she wants to do is:
* She wants to force corporations with over $1 billion in revenue, regardless of their profit, to appoint at least 40% of their board from the ranks of their workers
* She wants to re-install the stakeholder accountability that existed until the 1980's
Warren: Profits have Screwed Up the Country
I read the op-ed and I listened to her interview with Kramer on CNBC and according to Elizabeth Warren's revisionist version of American History, corporations cared about their stakeholders, meaning their employees, customers, communities up until the 1980's. Then all of a sudden, in the 1980's, everything changed. All of a sudden, it was all about profits. It was all about maximizing shareholder value. And that's what screwed up the country.,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/17/2018 • 52 minutes, 24 seconds
Populism and Democracy Are a Dangerous Combination – Ep. 379
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast wherever you listen.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1
Turkey's Current Account Deficit
The "Turkey baste" continued on Monday, although Tuesday we did have a bit of a reversal, Tuesday bounce in the lira, rising about 7 percent or so, in today's trading. But still, it is down considerably from where it was a few weeks - a few months ago. But I do believe that the financial media is exaggerating the problems that existed in Turkey prior to the crisis reaching the headlines. Yes, Turkey has a current account deficit, but the current account deficit is not nearly as large as the media is making it out to be. In fact, it is similar in size to the current account deficit that the United States is running, if you look it as a percentage of GDP. In fact, Turkey's trade deficit is a much smaller percentage of its GDP than is the American trade deficit.
Dollar Strength Hurting Emerging Markets
The problem in Turkey is twofold: one is the strengthening dollar, which is putting pressure on all of the emerging markets' currencies and economies. It's just that Turkey was a weaker link in that chain, so Turkey is being disproportionately impacted by the outlook that the dollar is going to keep rising. This puts a lot of pressure on economies where there has been a lot of foreign investment. A lot of loans are in dollars. A lot of the money that has been coming into the Turkish economy has been private investment, fueling capital investment within the Turkish economy. It 's not the government borrowing all this money; it's businesses borrowing money. The international community was willing to lend. After all, interest rates were really low for a long period of time and so capital was chasing a higher yield and some of that capital went into emerging markets, including Turkey. But obviously, you have a lot of loans that are dollar denominated and that's one reason that a rising dollar is so bad for emerging market economies.
Erdogan's Populist Policies Critical of High Interest Rates
What really elevated the problem for Turkey was not simply that the currency was falling, but look at what President Erdogan was saying: he is a populist leader who is saying things that appeal to voters. He's also appealing to nationalism. Trying to make it "Turkey against the world". Pursuing policies that put Turkish interests first. He has been critical of the Central Bank raising interest rates. He has been particularly critical of the whole concept of raising interest rates.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/15/2018 • 37 minutes, 51 seconds
America is the Real Turkey – Ep. 378
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast wherever you listen.
Turkey is the Epicenter of Emerging Market Concerns
Right now, the epicenter of the concerns about the emerging markets is coming from Turkey. What is the problem with the Turkish lira? Turkish President Erdogan is veering off into some very dangerous territory with his stance with the Central Bank of Turkey and now the political battle of egos that he is having with President Trump over the release of an American pastor who is imprisoned in Turkey. As a result of this, the President is now turning up the heat on Turkey with sanctions, which is compounding Turkey's problems. Today was probably the biggest one day drop in the Turkish lira. Today, the Turkish lira might have been down about 20% intra day.
Trump Doubling Down on Tariffs with Turkey
Throwing fuel on the fire, early in the morning, when the lira was already down 12%, Trump announced that he would be doubling the existing tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum. Turkey has a trade surplus with the U.S. like just about everybody else. Is this going to hurt Turkey? A little bit. Obviously it hurts Americans more because now Turkish steel is that much more expensive.
Speculative Frenzy Shorting the Turkish Lira
All of this is adding fuel to the speculative frenzy to short the Turkish lira. I think you have a lot of hot speculative money that has been leaning down on that currency. It is basically fueling an even bigger problem. They have high inflation, they have very high bond yields. The yields in Turkey up until recently, even though inflation was high, you had 400-500 basis points of positive bond yields.
Turkish Economy Essentially Strong
The Turkish economy has actually been quite strong over the years. As a result of that a lot of international money has been invested in Turkey. Foreign direct investment has been going into the Turkish economy, participating in the Turkish equity market, lenders have been loaning money. Some of that debt of course, is dollar denominated and euro denominated which is the problem now, because if you are a company generating revenue in Turkish lira, if you have dollar or euro debt. Now a lot of people hedge; if your obligations are in a different currency, you would hedge that currency to the lira. But the weakness in the lira drives inflation even higher, because as the lira loses value, you need more lira to buy stuff and as inflation goes higher, there is more pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates to try to fight that inflation. But higher rates also feed into inflation by increasing costs.
Turkish Debt to GDP Much Lower than in the U.S.
President Erdogan is putting pressure on the central bank not to raise interest rates high enough to crush all the speculators who are shorting the Turkish lira. What also should be done is they should dramatically reduce government spending in Turkey. Not that it was out of control to begin with, but they want to make sure they don't have deficits. If you look at the debt to GDP in Turkey it is considerably lower than in the U.S.
The U.S. Dollar is Not the Subject of a Run - Yet
The U.S. is in far worse shape than in Turkey, in fact it's not even close. But the difference is the U.S. dollar is not the subject of a run right now. But if you think about the predicament that Turkey is in, this is the same predicament that the U.S. is going to be in - we're just not there yet.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/11/2018 • 55 minutes, 29 seconds
Double Standards and Hypocrisy of the Left – Ep. 377
RATE AND REVIEW This Podcast
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1
Alex Jones Banned
Alex Jones was banned from iTunes, Facebook, YouTube - his entire YouTube Channel is gone! He had over a million subscribers. The Alex Jones videos on my YouTube channel where I appeared as a guest are still up, but the ones on Alex's site are no longer there.
What About the First Amendment?
This raises a lot of very interesting and disturbing questions. First of all, you have a lot of people talking about censorship. What about the first amendment? The most important thing to remember about freedom of speech is that all of that has to do with government. Government cannot infringe on your freedom of speech. This has nothing to do with a private business. So, Facebook or YouTube are private companies. I don't have a right to have a YouTube channel. When you sign up for YouTube, they have the terms & conditions and you agree... YouTube doesn't charge me to have a YouTube channel; I don't have a right to demand one - it's private property. I can still do videos and get them out on this website and on other channels. I can listen to the Alex Jones Show podcast, even though it is not on iTunes.
Banning an Opinion
I don't think YouTube and Facebook taking Alex Jones off is a First Amendment issue, or is censorship. It certainly is a double standard. Why are Alex Jones' videos being taken down? Supposedly because it is hate speech or fake news. It is his opinion, and if you don't want to listen to it, don't. I don't think he is out there inciting violence. There are actually sites on YouTube and Facebook that do advocate violence. There are Communist YouTube channels. Why is that allowed on YouTube? What is Communism? That is where the government forcibly steals private property. Communism is a much bigger threat to the families in Newtown than Alex Jones denying that there was a shooting there.
Intolerance for Any Opinion that Disagrees
The Alex Jones channel made a lot of money for YouTube. Why would they want to get rid of it? YouTube is about selling ads and they need content, and Alex Jones some very good content. I think the reason was pressure from advertisers who were getting pressure from consumers saying. 'We're not going to use your products if you keep selling ads on this channel."
This is the type of society we live in, where the left is so intolerant of any opinion that they disagree with that they will do anything they can to shut it down. Whether it is trying to use the power of government or trying to use their power as consumers to organize and put pressure on companies to silence people who are saying things they don't like.
Slanting Content Invites Fairer Competition
As long as it is not the government silencing free speech, the message is still out there. Alex Jones will still be out there, just not on YouTube, Facebook or iTunes. Ultimately, if places like Facebook or YouTube started to censor enough people, it would destroy the value of their franchise. If they slant their content it leaves the door open for a competitor to come in and offer free speech.
Where you see massive hypocrisy is the same people who are up in arms about a small bakery who does not want to decorate a cake for a gay wedding and use the full force of the U.S. government to force them to so something they disagree with, have no problem with a trillion dollar company (Apple) denying service to Alex Jones because they don't agree with what he is saying. You either defend private property and liberty or you don't. I don't think we can force a baker to bake a cake for a gay wedding and we can't force YouTube to provide service to Alex Jones.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/8/2018 • 55 minutes, 7 seconds
Mainstream View on Trade Dangerously Wrong – Ep. 376
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast Wherever you listen.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1
Ridiculous Rhetoric in Tariffs
One of the drivers behind the increasing cost of living is going to be the tariffs. The rhetoric here is really ridiculous. Talking heads on the mainstream media say, "We've got China by the balls..." "We're going to make them feel some pain..." "They're going to give in..." We're going to force them to play fair because they have so much to lose..."
We Have More to Lose and China Has More to Gain
The reason that the Chinese stock market is suffering more than the American stock market is because investors are clueless. They believe all the nonsense that China is going to lose the trade war and America is going to win. It couldn't be further from the truth. We have a lot more to lose, in fact China has a lot to gain, if they would only figure it out. Why have the Chinese for so long been willing to subsidize the U.S. economy? That is what they have been doing. They have been artificially suppressing the standard of living of their own people so they can prop up the standard of living in America. They have been denying their own citizens the production they otherwise would have been entitled to by diverting that production to exports.
Economists Made Same Faulty Analysis After WWII
This is the same type of argument that economists made, and I pointed this out on my first book, Crash Proof: The Second World War was nearing an end. There were economists who were worried that the end of the war would bring about a recession because there would be lots of unemployment. All of the factories that were producing military products wouldn't have anything to make anymore. And all the soldiers and factory workers would be unemployed. Everybody was worried that there would be a big economic downturn.
U.S. Postwar Economy Boomed Because the Government Dramatically Cut Spending
Fortunately nobody took the advice of those economists. We ended the war anyway and rather than an economic downturn, we had an economic boom. In fact, you hear all these economists today who like to say that WWII got us out of the Great Depression. That's not correct. Yes, the GDP went up during the war because of all the military production, but if you look at the standard of living of American citizens during the war, compared to that of the post-war era, it was when the war ended that the economy boomed. Why? Because the government dramatically cut spending.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook!
https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/
Abolish the Capital Gains Tax?
If we simply had no capital gains tax, but wen are still taxing the worker on the value of his labor without any deductions whatsoever, I just don't think that's a fair system. That's one of the reasons I would not want to just abolish the capital gains tax. I would want to abolish the entire income tax and go to an indirect tax, such as sales tax or tariffs. We would obviously have a much smaller government if it had to survive on indirect taxes, on excise taxes. This is what the framers of the (of the Constitution) originally envisioned. They thought that direct taxes, like an income tax, would only be used during times of war. That's why they made it so hard to enact.
Indirect Tax Rather than Direct Tax
During peacetime, the government was supposed to operate on excise taxes. Of course, the whole idea of income tax to me is inconsistent with free people. Free people do not have to report everything to the government. They don't have to fill out paperwork under penalty of perjury and file all these tax returns, keep all these records. If the government is forcing us to do all this, the government is the master and the people are the servants. That is not what America is supposed to be about.
Is Government the Master and We the Servants?
Of course, the biggest problem I have with the capital gains tax cut is that government spending is not also being cut. So we're talking about another tax cut without reducing the size of government. Since government spending needs to be paid for, if we're going to cut the capital gains tax, how are we going to pay for government spending that capital gains taxes used to pay for? Obviously we are going to borrow it. And borrowed money is going to do more damage to the economy than any benefit we get from reducing the capital gains tax.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/1/2018 • 49 minutes, 20 seconds
Peak GDP Sets Stage for Major Economic Fail – Ep. 374
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on iTunes!
U.S. GDP Growth Reported at 4.1%
Today we finally got the highly anticipated first look at U.S. economic growth, or really GDP growth, because the GDP is not that great a barometer of the economy. Nonetheless, thats the one that everybody uses to measure it, and that's the one that we're going to talk about. Perhaps I can get into why the GDP is such a flawed measure in a different podcast; I really don't want to get into it today. I just want to talk about the numbers that are being spoon-fed.
Atlanta Fed Forecast of 3.8% Might Be Closer to Final Number
In any event, we got the number today, and there was initially a loth of estimates that we could just blow it away this quarter, that we could have a number north of 5%, and we got 4.1%. So, we at least are above 4%, which lets Donald Trump brag about the number being over 4%, although we'll see how long it stays over 4%. You know, we did get a lot of data that was coming out this week, and in recent weeks. In fact, the Atlanta Fed lowered its forecast, which at one point was as high as 5.4% and it lowered it down to 3.8% yesterday. I think that 38 might end up being more accurate than the 4.1%. In fact, we may end up being below 3.8% by the time they make the final revisions.
Celebration May Be Premature
They actually revised the first quarter back up to 2.2%. So they revise these things constantly. The first number is rarely the correct number. In theory, they could revise it up but I think it's more likely that the revision is going to be down, so the celebration is premature.
New Home Sales Lowest in 8 Months
Two numbers that came out this week that caused the Atlanta Fed to move down to 3.8%: one was new home sales. It was the lowest in 8 months. In fact, they revised down some prior months. I had already reported in a previous podcast the weak numbers for existing home sales, which is a bigger number because most of the homes that are bought already exist. But the ones that are being built have a bigger impact on the economy proportionately because of all the construction jobs.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/28/2018 • 48 minutes, 54 seconds
Ep. 373: Freedom Is Great; Tariffs Are Not.
POST YOUR REVIEW OF THIS PODCAST ON iTunes
Voting Responsibly for Freedom
I am "pro" young people because I want them to grow up in a free country. I want them to have every opportunity to be as prosperous as possible. Democracy is actually an enemy of freedom. Young people have a better chance to achieve their goals if the 18-19-20 year old generation aren't voting for leaders who pass policies that will actually undermine our success and our progress. They're not sophisticated enough yet; they don't know enough yet about the real world to understand the real role of government.
Socialism Masquerading as Capitalism
The goal is to have the best government. that's why we don't let elementary kids vote. Why? because they are not sophisticated enough and even 18-year olds who have never had a job are not able to discern what we need for good government. I am trying to reach more and more young people to help them understand the benefits of freedom and capitalism and understand the dangers of socialism and of socialism that is masquerading as capitalism, crony capitalism and corporatism. We have the U.S. government controlling the economy with regulation and taxes and then blaming everything that goes wrong on the free market. Everything that goes right is because of the free market. Everything we achieve is despite all of the road blocks that government creates and the level to which they go to undermine success.
Turn on to Liberty
So the more young people who can listen to this podcast (younger people are more likely to listen to podcasts) the more knowledgeable voters we'll have to vote for good government. The higher this podcast is ranked, the more people will discover it. I have heard this story many times: first time listeners who have found me. Once I turn them on to liberty, once I appeal to them, I open their eyes. They then do their own research; they start to read. They start to tune out all the propaganda and start thinking for themselves. I can change people's mind.
Help Me Get the Word Out
You can help me change people's minds by posting your rating and review this podcast on iTunes. Put the stars on there and write up a review and help me get my podcast to more people. That's the way to win this political war. There is a giant move to the left. People have misinterpreted the results of the last election. The electorate is moving left. That left wave is going to affect the moderates and even the Republicans in this next election. The coming recession will be worse than the last one and is going to be entirely blamed on free market capitalism.
Pierce the Smokescreen of Mainstream Media
We need to make as many people as possible realize that they are being lied to. The media can repeat a lie often enough that people believe it is the truth. The point of my podcast is to get the real truth out there and to pierce the smokescreen of lies that is being blown by the government, by Wall Street, and by the mainstream media.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/25/2018 • 50 minutes, 44 seconds
Trump and Fed to Blame Each Other for Recession – Ep. 372
Presidential Tweets Express Anger at the Fed
The catalyst today was more tweets from President Trump where he is expressing anger, not only at the Federal Reserve, and at the ECB and at the Bank of China, because he is accusing both Europe and China of being currency manipulators; taking advantage of us by weakening their currencies. He's saying that a weak currency gives you an advantage. It doesn't.
Strong Currency Provides Trade Advantage
When it comes to trade, it is a strong currency that gives you the advantage because trade is all about imports. How do you get more stuff for your own citizens, and the way you pay for that stuff is by exporting. But the goal is to export as little as possible and to import as much as possible. If you're a buyer, you always want to pay the least and get the most. So you pay for stuff when you export because you're using resources to produce stuff for other people. But you're not producing stuff for other people because you're charitable, you're trying to earn the money to buy stuff for yourselves that other people made.
Is Trump Firing Back?
Having a strong currency is a huge advantage because it means you can claim a greater portion of the global output. Because the dollar has been so over-valued thanks to the generosity or the stupidity of our trading partners, Americans enjoy greater consumption than what would otherwise be available to them if we were limited by our own collective production. So we actually have the advantage. But by calling out China and the ECB for deliberately weakening their currency, you would think that Trump may want to fire back.
Weakening the Dollar
Donald Trump doesn't control the Fed, but the Treasury Department can intervene in the foreign exchange markets. Maybe, if Donald Trump really believes that these other countries are deliberately weakening their currency and if he has no control over the Fed but he does have control over the U.S. Treasury, he can have the Secretary of the Treasury intervene, go into the Foreign Exchange Market and start dumping dollars, trying to drive the dollar down so that we can reclaim the advantage. At least the way he looks at it.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/21/2018 • 41 minutes, 8 seconds
Labor Laws Hurt Workers the Most – Ep. 371
Trump Driver is Suing the Trump Organization
On thing I talked about on the Joe Rogan podcast was a story that broke the same day of my last podcast, which I thought was very interesting. It was about Donald Trump being sued by his former personal driver, who still works for the Trump organization, by the way, he's worked there for over 25 years until Trump became President and got a tax-payer provided driver, he had to pay his own driver. I think the guy was getting a $70K/year salary, which to me seems about right.
Diver Claims He is Due Overtime
The driver sued the Trump organization because he claims that he was due overtime, and he didn't get paid overtime. Now he's worked for the Trump organization for 25 years. He has known his pay all these years and never once complained and now after 25 years he wants to use the labor laws to retroactively force the Trump organization to give him a pay hike.
Terms and Conditions of Employment
First of all, he is not an hourly employee. It's not like he is punching a clock and the organization asks him to work overtime. According to the article I read, the driver needed to be on call for Trump something like 10-11 hours a day. Maybe 55 hours a week he was on call in case Trump needed him. That does not mean he was driving all that time; he just had to be accessible to Trump. He couldn't go on a vacation or leave town, but he could watch a movie, he could read a book, he could trade stocks on the internet, he could do whatever he wanted. He had plenty of free time between times he drove for Trump. He knew exactly what the deal was and he chose to work under these conditions.
What happens in America is that employees like to go back in time and re-write the deal more favorably to them. If this driver did not like the terms of his employment, he had two options:
* He could have gone to Donald Trump and said, "I'm working on call 10 hours a day - that's more than a normal 8-hour job, you're paying me $70K/year, If you want me to be on call that many hours, you need to pay me more money. Then Trump would have had two options - pay more money or find another driver.
* If the driver did not like his employment conditions of that job, the compensation package, the amount of hours he had to be available, he was free to drive for somebody else.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/17/2018 • 47 minutes, 56 seconds
Government Regulation Is Why Drugs Cost so Much – Ep. 370
Misguided Tweet About Pfizer
Another misguided tweet that came out today from the President had to do with drugs:
Pfizer & others should be ashamed that they have raised drug prices for no reason. They are merely taking advantage of the poor & others unable to defend themselves, while at the same time giving bargain basement prices to other countries in Europe & elsewhere. We will respond!
So here's the President, threatening businesses for raising prices; for making a profit. If Obama were calling out big business like this, the Republicans would be all over him, or if Hillary Clinton were saying this:"You don't understand capitalism! This is an assault on private enterprise!"
Trump's Protectionism Tolerated by Republicans
But Trump says it and it's no big deal. Can you imagine if Hillary Clinton had launched these recent tariffs? Can you imagine the backlash by the Republicans? "This is terrible, the President doesn't understand capitalism; the President doesn't understand free trade; this is going to backfire; this is going to lower our standard of living; this is going to raise prices!" The Republicans would be all over Hillary Clinton. They would have been all over President Obama. Republicans have generally been known to be in favor of free trade. It's the Democrats who wanted some protectionism because they wanted to protect workers. They think free trade will lower wages, hurting the blue collar worker. So you would generally associate Democrats with protectionism. The Republicans wanted to be Free-Traders.
Get Rid of FDA Red Tape
Now, of course, since President Trump is advocating protectionism, the Republicans don't want to attack him because they are blindly loyal to the party. So now he's bashing Pfizer and other private companies for "gouging" the consumer, just raising prices for no reason. This is all misplaced. I agree that drug prices are too high; they should be a lot lower. It is not that Pfizer is rising prices for no reason. One of the reasons drugs are so expensive is the FDA. This is something President Trump can do something about. He is the President. The FDA is a Federal agency. Why not get rid of all that red tape? It takes an average of 10 years and $2.6 billion for a drug company to develop a drug and get it to market. The drug has to recoup those costs when they finally get a drug to market.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/10/2018 • 46 minutes, 20 seconds
Will the Trade War Prick America’s Bubble Economy? – Ep. 369
"Bring on the Trade War!"
Today is Jobs Friday, but before I get to the jobs report, I want to talk a little bit about the escalation of the trade war, In fact, some stories I'm reading are that the trade war began today, or last night. A lot of the tariffs are finally being imposed. The market reacted positively; the Dow was up 100 points today. The NASDAQ was up 100 points as well, which is percentage-wise a much bigger increase - 1.34% move - so who cares about a trade war? "Bring it on! America is going to win the trade war because we've got the least to lose because we've got the biggest deficits.
Dollar Sold Off Despite Trade War and Jobs Number
The dollar, meanwhile, sold off today. The dollar index closed at 94, barely held the 94 handle. It traded below briefly, despite what many people consider a stronger Nonfarm Payroll report. So, the dollar went down despite the beginning of the trade war and despite the supposed strong jobs number. To me, the dollar topped out at 95; I expect us to crack below 94 next week, and if we break below 93, if we get into the 92's I am pretty sure the rally is over, technically speaking and we're heading for new lows relatively quickly.
Who is the Industrial Powerhouse?
Let me get back to the trade war that we are supposedly going to win. One of the most interesting things about it, is when you look at the goods each side is imposing tariffs on. When you look at that, you can see which country is the industrial powerhouse and which country is a third world country masquerading as an economic power. Here are the goods made in China that Trump wants to tax the American citizens on:
Aircraft tires
Scales
Nuclear reactors
Cranes
Boat motors
Bulldozers
Aircraft engines
Boring machines
Aircraft engine parts
Construction vehicles
Air & gas compressors
Oil & gas drilling platforms
Combine harvesters
Plows
Industrial heating equipment
Chicken Incubators
Dairy milkers
Plows
Livestock equipment
Machinery for processing meats
Paper making machinery
Machinery for molds, cements
Printer & copy machine parts
Machinery for glass products
Printer & machinery for making rubber
Industrial ovens
Industrial magnets
AC & DC generators
Lithium batteries
Electric transformers
Radar & radio equipment
Equipment for circuit breakers
Television parts & video recorders
LED's
Electronic traffic signs
Trains & rail parts
Large vehicles
Diesel cars & trucks
Motorcycles
Helicopters
Microscopes
Airplanes
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/7/2018 • 49 minutes, 24 seconds
Dependence Day Is Nothing to Celebrate – Ep. 368
Market Closed Early for July 4th Holiday
The U.S. stock market closed early today, ahead of tomorrow's Fourth of July holiday when the markets are of course closed and Americans are out celebrating Independence Day, the birth of the nation, July 4, 1776. I love the Fourth of July as a holiday; it is purely American.
Framers of the Constitution Risked it All
One of the problems I have with the Fourth of July is that it makes me feel both good and bad about what happened on July 4, 1776. I am honored to have been born in a nation that was conceived in liberty and I think about the sacrifices made by the people who signed their names beneath John Hancock's name to that document. These men risked it all to put their names on the Declaration of Independence, committing treason against the British government. If we had lost that war, the King would have killed our founding fathers, as traitors.
The American Experience is Unique and Privileged
So you think back on the accomplishments and the sacrifices that were made and the incredible republic that our founders created. I'm proud that, but at the same time, I'm sad that it has all been lost. We no longer have the nation that our founders created for us. We have lost all that it means to be an American. It used to be so special to be American, based on the type of nation that we were, and the type of individuals that Americans were; what it meant to be an American, how unique and privileged it was.
The Role of Government in America
And today, even though the American economy is regarded as at the top, a lot of that is a function of debt and it's all an illusion. The difference between an American and any European these days is not nearly as great as it was. If you have never read the Declaration of Independence, and I am sure most of you probably had at some point, you might want to take another look at it, and give the entire document a read. I am going to read just a part of the second paragraph, because this is the most important aspect to understand the essence of what America is supposed to be, and what the American government is supposed to do. This is important because there are all these Socialists out there who want to re-define America - Democratic Socialism. This paragraph helps you understand the role of government in America.
We Hold These Truths to Be Self-Evident
Governments can have different roles in different countries, but in America, there is a certain role that government is supposed to have. It had it for a long time, but it no longer fills that role:
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, —
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/3/2018 • 49 minutes, 33 seconds
Sky High GDP Forecasts Coming down to Earth – Ep. 367
Dow Ending a Down Week on a Positive Note
The Dow managed to finish a down week on a positive note; the Dow Jones was up about 55 points - 24,270-ish is where we closed. Although intra-day, we were up better than 250 points, so most fo the losses came toward the end of the day, as the Dow was not able to hold on to all those gains. It held on to some of the gains, but Russell 2000, not as lucky. That index ended up finishing a down week down on the day. Probably the difference is the oil stocks, which are really helping out the Dow, to a lesser extent maybe the S&P 500 and that also closed positive on the day, but just barely, and well off the intra-day highs.
I Predicted Oil Would Be Heading Toward $80/Barrel
While we're talking about crude oil, we were up again today, in fact, we haven't even finished trading as I'm recording this, but as I am looking at it, it is at 74.40, up .$.95 - right near the high of the day. I think so far that was $74.46, so, almost 74.50. Oil is just a powerhouse. For those of you who say, "Hey Peter Schiff, you haven't gotten anything right since 2008!", I beg to differ. I've gotten some things right; I've gotten some things wrong, but one of the things I nailed this year is the oil market. I was very bullish on oil early in the year. I was saying that oil prices were headed up to $80-$100/barrel at the beginning of the year. When the year started, we were barely above $60, so $80 still looked like it was far away, but I was pretty sure we were going there. And, obviously, we're not there yet, but the year is only half over, and we're a lot closer to $80 than half way. I don't think we're going to stop at $80. I think it will be somewhere between $80 and $100/barrel.
What is Driving Crude Oil Right Now?
The question is, what is driving crude oil right now, because the dollar is rising. Today, it did not rise. Today the dollar index got smoked. Some of that had to do with political news announced last night in the Eurozone regarding immigration, but the dollar wasn't just weak against the euro today, it was across the board. All the currencies scored big gains. The dollar index is back down below 95 - 94.63. Remember I said on my last podcast I did not think there was much room above 95 for the dollar index to rise. So far I'm right about that.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/30/2018 • 36 minutes, 27 seconds
Socialists Take N.Y.C. Is the U.S.A. Next? – Ep. 366
Election Results in N.Y.C. Indicate Political Backlash
Trump has already said that he's "Made America Great Again", so whatever problems he inherited, he's already claimed to have solved, which means any problems that arise now are brand new, under Trump's watch, and he and the Republicans are going to take the blame. An early warning sign of just how big a disaster this can be arrived yesterday in a N.Y.C. Congressional primary. You had a 10-term incumbent Democrat - the guy's been in Congress for 20 years. These guys are impossible to get rid of - trying to get rid of them is like trying to get rid of herpes. Joseph Crowley had been unopposed for 14 years. 28-year old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is going to be, if she wins, will be the youngest woman ever elected to the House of Representatives. She is a former bartender with no real political experience other than being a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. They believe in the abolition of capitalism in favor of an economy run by either the workers or the government.
Oil Prices Prop up DJIA, but not Broader Markets
Even the surge in oil stocks was not enough to keep the U.S. stock market in the black today. The Dow Jones finished in the red by 165 points. That is a drop of .68 percent, but the broader markets which don't have the exposure to the energy sector faired much worse. You had the composite down 116 points - 1.5% - and the Russell 2000 down almost 1.7%. Oil prices had a huge day today. They closed off the highs, but still up $1.80. $72.33 per barrel for the price of oil. We did get as high as $73.06 on West Texas earlier today, so this is a new high for the year. Remember, this is what helped the market avoid an 8-day losing streak when we got that 9th day rally, thanks to oil stocks; and I said at that time that I didn't think that was good news for the markets because higher oil prices may be good for companies, but they're not good for the overall economy. They're even higher now and it will be an even bigger drag on the economy.
Trade Wars and Deficits Bearish for the Dollar
More importantly than the oil price in dollars is the oil price in euros, which continue to weaken against the dollar and other currencies, The dollar index had another strong day. We're back above the 95 handle: 95.26. I think this is where the resistance is for the dollar, so I don't expect much headway above 95 on the dollar index. I still think that the markets have this all wrong; a trade war is not a positive for the dollar. So everybody who is betting that all of these trade tensions escalating is somehow dollar positive, they're wrong. Just as the people who are betting larger budget deficits are dollar bullish. Both of these events are dollar bearish, as the dollar bulls are soon going to find out.
Oil Prices Threaten Inflation in the Eurozone
In the meantime, the increasing price of oil is going to send Eurozone inflation blowing through the 2% ceiling. I talked about that in this podcast. They don't have a 2% target in the Eurozone, like we supposedly have in the U.S. Here, the Fed is targeting 2%. They've even said they're targeting higher than 2% to be symmetrical around 2%. But in the Eurozone, 2% is the ceiling. That's why Draghi keeps saying we want to get close to, but below 2%, because it's a hard ceiling. Why they're trying to get close to it is beyond me because if you get too close to it you're in danger of going above it.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/28/2018 • 41 minutes, 56 seconds
Most Banks Would Fail Stagflation Stress Test – Ep. 365
Stagflation
Nobody realized just how bad the economy is, but they're about to find out. All of the economic data that came out this week points to stagflation, if you look at the data. Look at the Philly Fed - dropped down to 19. It is the biggest drop in 4 years; the lowest since the election. Look at the manufacturing PMI - those numbers came out yesterday - dropped to a 7-month low, the lowest since November 2017. If you look at the actual numbers - new orders fell sharply but input cost rose to their highest since September 2013. So you have rising input costs, yo have falling orders; to me this is all stagflation.
The Fed's Stress Test was too Easy
As I pointed out, even Alan Greenspan, not too long ago on CNBC talking about stagflation. He can see it. But you know who can't see stagflation? anyone at the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve announced the results of their stress tests, and surprise, surprise! Everybody passed. So the Federal Reserve designed tests to measure the banks that they regulate would perform under adverse economic scenarios. First of all, if a teacher gives a test, and everybody gets an A, then the test was too easy. Clearly the Federal Reserve designed this test so that everybody would pass, which of course, is why the test means nothing. Obviously they don't want to announce that the banking system is not sound, so they want to run these bogus stress tests to create a false sense of confidence in the banking system.
Look at the Fed's Assumptions
I want to actually look at the stress test. You really can't tell anything unless you look at the assumptions. What type of stress is the Federal Reserve assuming the economy might encounter? First of all, you have the most likely scenario they assume - their base case. Their base case scenario, which is their forecast is that everything is great. The economy continues to grow 2 - 2.5%/year - a little bit more this year but then it slows down. Inflation stays right at 2%, interest rates stay about where they are, unemployment goes a little bit lower - everything is great, right? Now, their adverse scenario goes as follows: the U.S. has a mild recession, and during that mild recession the Federal Reserve is able to lower interest rates down to about zero again. The yield on the 10-year falls to about .75%, so 10-year yields fall below 1%; Inflation falls; they don't say how low but it falls below 2%, unemployment rises and peaks at 7%. This is their adverse scenario. Interest rates go back down to zero. That doesn't sound that horrible. Inflation goes down - what is so horrible about lower inflation? This is not that bad.
The Elephant in the Room is Stagflation
But then, you've got to look at their extreme. In that scenario, we have a bigger recession, and according to the Federal Reserve, there is a global aversion to buying government debt, like bonds. So because of that aversion, the yield on the 10-year doesn't fall to .75% the way it does under the adverse scenario, it stays where it is - right around 3%. So because interest rates do not fall, there is a bigger decline in asset prices - I think they have a 65% decline in stock prices, a 30% decline in real estate prices, unemployment rises to 10%, and inflation falls to 1%. I can't help but laugh at this severely adverse scenario, where inflation is only 1% and the Fed is able, again to lower interest rates down to zero. What is the Fed missing? The elephant in the room: stagflation.
The 2008 Financial Crisis Was Not Even Close to the Worst Case Scenario
There's an old saying that generals always prepare to fight the last war, and the same is true with central bankers. What was the last war? It was the 2008 Financial Crisis. What happened during that crisis? Interest rates went down, inflation went down, the dollar went up (by the way, the adverse scenario also assumes appreciation of the dollar,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/23/2018 • 51 minutes, 23 seconds
The Force Will Not Be with Us – Ep. 364
Upping the Ante
The shot heard around the world in the ever-escalating trade war was fired last night by Donald Trump, threatening to impose another $200 billion of tariffs on American consumers wishing to buy Chinese goods. This followed the $50 billion in tariffs. And, remember, when Trump announced the first $50 billion tax on Chinese goods, he threatened that if China retaliated by taxing its own citizens, that Trump would up the ante with even more taxes on American citizens, although he did not use those terms. He's acting as if the guns are pointed in the other direction. But, the Chinese, of course, not to lose face, immediately went tit for tat with Trump and now Trump had no choice but to follow through with $200 billion more in taxes. Now, I guess the ball is in China's court. We'll see where they take it.
Dow Closed Down for Sixth Consecutive Day
The markets obviously didn't take it very well. They sold off. In fact, the decline in the U.S., as seems to be typical, was much more muted than the reaction was around the world. The Dow was down, it closed down for the 6th consecutive day. This was the longest losing streak for the Dow since March of 2017; down 287. The lows were down about 415-430 or so, but not that big a decline. And the Russell 2000 was up again. Another all time high. I think on the 6 days that the Dow has been down, the Russell 2000 has only been down 2 of those days. So it keeps going up, and this shows you that traders have convinced themselves that America is going to win the trade war - or at least, take the fewest casualties. Because the reason that the Russell 2000 is doing better than the Dow or the S&P is that you don't have the multi-nationals.
Trump: Greatest Economy in the History of the World
The theory is that the domestic economy can easily weather the trade war. That it is no big deal, that trade is a small part of the U.S. economy, and so we have nothing to worry about! But if you are worried, well maybe worry about the multinationals that stand to lose, so just focus on all these small companies that are benefitting and basking in the glow of the greatest economy in the history of the world, and if you don't believe it, just ask President Trump.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/20/2018 • 38 minutes, 45 seconds
Dovish ECB Roils Markets – Ep. 363
ECB Announces Dovish Tightening
The big market-moving central bank announcement this week was not the Fed. They came out with their so-called "hawkish hike", but yesterday, the ECB came out and they were supposed to announce the end of their Quantitative Easing program, their own version of the taper, which they did. But they surprised the market by indicating that they would not raise rates above zero, where they are stuck, until the summer of 2019. The markets had not expected such a delay in rate hikes, so it was a dovish tightening announced by the ECB.
The ECB Effectively Eased
When the Fed raised rates, the reaction was pretty much what I expected. The dollar did not strengthen. Gold did not go down. All of that had been priced into the market. What caused the dollar to rally and gold to sell off was the ECB and their unexpected ease, which put a bid into the dollar. We got a huge rise in the dollar yesterday. We got a 2 percent or so drop in the value of the euro against the dollar. And the weakness in the euro, along with the strength in the dollar caused a lot of the emerging market currencies to sell off, so it was a huge dollar rally, not because the Fed hiked, but because the ECB effectively eased.
Initially, yesterday, gold jumped 2% in terms of the euro. In fact it jumped up the the high end of the range that had been trading against the euro and it was very close to a breakout against the euro. It was only up a couple of bucks against the dollar, so all of the rise was in terms of euros, and of course, other currencies also fell against the dollar.
Unexpected ECB Move Caused Gold Sell-off
This morning, the traders came out huge. When we couldn't get above that key level in terms of the euro, there was massive selling of gold this morning right out of the gate, and gold finally dropped about $20. Remember on Wednesday I talked about the fact that gold had been in a $12 range all month, and I knew that that wasn't going to persist. Gold was going to have to break out one way or the other. I anticipated gold to break to the upside because I expected gold to rise after the Fed hiked rates, which is what has been happening. What I did not expect was for the ECB to come out with an effective ease, and that's what caused gold to break out of that range. So I was right about the breakout but I was wrong about the direction due to the unexpected ECB move.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/16/2018 • 36 minutes, 48 seconds
Fed’s Inflation Victory Is a Loss for Consumers – Ep. 362
Fed Raises Rates for the 7th Time
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates today. I think this is the 7th rate hike. Six of these rate hikes have now taken place since Donald Trump was elected; five of them since he was inaugurated. The official rate now is 1.75% to 2%. The Federal Reserve targets the midpoint of that range. But the Fed has been tightening a lot longer than those 7 rate hikes, because, remember, before they hiked rates, they talked about it and they were tapering. And the tapering was a De Facto tightening, because interest rates were effectively negative while the fed was doing QE. So, as it was tapering those purchases, it was reducing how much rates were actually negative, and that was, in fact tightening.
Press Conference After Every Meeting?
So the Fed has been tightening for a lot longer than the markets believe, which is why the recession is probably going to come a lot sooner and be a lot deeper than what anyone believes. There were rumors that came out earlier in the week that Powell thinks there should be a press conference after every single meeting. Right now, they just do it quarterly, and when they initially announced that, the reaction in the markets was, "Oh, maybe that means more rate hikes." because every time the Fed hikes rates, they have a press conference. So the thinking was, if they have more press conferences, they would have more rate hikes.
Powell's Bullish Comments Contrarian Indicator
I don't think it means that at all, in fact, there is no rule that says that the Fed needs a press conference to hike rates. They can hike rates at any meeting; in fact, they don't even need a meeting! They can hike rates between meetings. They just haven't been doing it, but there's nothing that says they can't. So, I don't think having more press conferences means anything, but people are always looking for an excuse to do something, so that might have been an excuse. But if you listen to what Powell said at this press conference, he sounded bullish on the economy. Listen to the words he chose. Given the fact that he is so bullish and the fact that the Fed is a pretty good contrarian indicator, if Powell is extremely bullish, it likely means that the best days of our so-called growth are behind us, and it is all down hill from here.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/14/2018 • 51 minutes, 28 seconds
Tariffs Did Not Cause U.S.Trade Deficits – Ep. 361
Market Movers: Singapore Summit
We've got a lot of potentially market-moving events going on this week; we've got the Summit which I think is getting underway this evening with North Korea's President Kim Jong Un and President Trump meeting in Singapore.
No Market Move Expected on Rate Hike
We've got the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting beginning tomorrow, it's a 2-day meeting ending on Wednesday. The odds of a rate hike are 100%! So in all probability there will be a rate hike. Eventually the Fed is going to reverse course and that will come as a surprise; odds are the surprise won't happen on Wednesday. Right now we are at one and a half to one and three quarters, so the next hike will be one and three quarters to two. I think what might surprise the markets, is if the Fed dials back expectations for later hikes. A lot of people are still looking for 2 more hikes this year in addition to the one we will get on Wednesday. They may indicate that they are closer to the end of their rate-hiking cycle. Maybe they will dial back their anticipated "Quantitative Tightening". I don't think the Fed is going to deliver much at all in the way of Quantitative Tightening but they may indicate to the markets that they're not going to do as much as what the the markets believe. But in any event, given a 100% probability of a hike this time, the hike itself will not move markets at all.
What If They Don't Hike?
If the Fed does not hike, that would provide a big boost to gold and a big drop in the dollar. If they do not hike, that would be an indication that there may not be as many future hikes. But, again, if you look at how gold has traded in the past, if you look at how gold has traded in this cycle, it has generally been bullish for gold, if not the very day, then within the next few days.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/12/2018 • 46 minutes, 49 seconds
Time to Fade the Short EM Trade – Ep. 360
Focusing on Emerging Markets
I'm going to spend most of today's podcast talking about what is going on in the emerging markets, in the currency market and in the stock markets; what the speculators are doing, why they are doing it and why I think they are wrong and why I think it creates an excellent opportunity for investors to fade this trade and prepare for the ultimate reversal of these moves.
Freedom Fest in Las Vegas
But before I get into that, I want to talk about a few other topics of interest that happened after my last podcast. I also want to talk about Freedom Fest in July. I am going to Freedom Fest again, as I do every year in July. Not the greatest time of the year in Las Vegas - not that there's really a bad time to be in Las Vegas, you're going to have fun in Las Vegas whenever you go - but it is quite hot in July. Of course I spend almost all my time indoors, so the heat really does not affect me. And when I do go out, it is at night, and it is not so hot. The event is July 12-14 and if you have not already registered you can do it now. It will be at the Paris Hotel & Casino; I will be there with my entire family - my wife and 3 kids. We'll be at our booth, you can come by and have a chance to meet my wife and kids and say hello.
Presentation on Tax Incentives of Working and Moving to Puerto Rico
I am going to be participating in several events; I am going to be doing a talk on Puerto Rico and the tax incentives of working from and moving to Puerto Rico. Most of you should know by now, I am Puerto Rican. Puerto Rico is my main residence; I summer in Connecticut, but I am a resident of Puerto Rico. Euro Pacific Asset Management and Euro Pacific Bank are both based in Puerto Rico.
Bitcoin Debate Moderated by Naomi Brockwell
Also I am going to be doing a Bitcoin debate against Jeffrey Tucker and Gary Smith - is it real, or is it Tulipmania? All of you realize what side I am on. The debate will be moderated by Naomi Brockwell, who is known as "The Bitcoin Girl" in fact she appeared on my old radio show, the Peter Schiff Show, and I sure wish I'd listened to her and bought a bunch of bitcoin - obviously I would have a lot more money today.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/9/2018 • 37 minutes, 52 seconds
Special Privileges for Some Means Freedom for None – Ep. 359
Current Events
Not much has been going on in the economy or the financial markets the last couple of days. Its been pretty quiet, so I'm going to take an opportunity to record a podcast more on current events and politics, so if you're not interested in those topics, then maybe just wait for my next podcast, although, when I did the Peter Schiff Radio Show 5 days a week, there were people who complained when I did not talk about the markets, or even the economy. But I always enjoyed talking more about politics and current events, and I think the feedback I got was more engaging, so the show was more interesting.
Supreme Court Wedding Cake Case
So, I am going to talk about a couple of topics today; one has to do about that ruling that came out of the Supreme Court yesterday on the baker in Colorado who had refused to bake a cake for a gay wedding. I know I have talked about this topic in the past; it is not the first time it has come up, but it has come up again in the wake of this ruling so I want to revisit that topic.
No More Swimsuit Competition for Miss America
Before I get to that topic, I would like to address a lighter topic, but nonetheless just as interesting. The Miss America Pageant is no longer going to consider beauty as the criteria for the pageant. In other words, it is a beauty pageant, but beauty doesn't count. It's not outer beauty, it's just going to be, I guess inner beauty. They are going to get rid of the swimsuit competition, they are going to get rid of the evening gown competition and they will select a winner based on other characteristics. I'm really not sure what. I know they've got the talent competition; no one really paid too much attention to talent. Some of the women actually had some talent. Usually the most humorous part of the Miss America Pageant was the Q&A where there were often political questions asked and the contestants would try to give the most politically correct answer they could come up with.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/6/2018 • 49 minutes, 47 seconds
Jobs Report Feeds Delusional Economic Narrative – Ep. 358
Jobs Friday
Today is the first day of June and it's also jobs Friday. But before we get to the always highly-anticipated nonfarm payroll number, I want to talk about some of the economic data that came out yesterday, on Thursday.
Personal Income and Spending
I think the most significant release was the Personal Income and Spending number for the month of April. The spending numbers were so strong that it prompted the Atlanta Fed to adjust its estimate for Q2 GDP all the way up to 4.6% and I think they notched it up another tenth today to 4.7%, so this is the highest estimate they've had since they had that 5.4% estimate for Q1. Of course we now know that we got 2.2%, so they were much too optimistic on Q1 and my gut is they're equally overly optimistic on Q2.
Spending Went Up as Income Went Down
Let's talk about this Personal Income and Spending data. The surprise was not on the income, but on the spending. In fact, the revisions, when they went back to March. the original report was for a .3% gain in income and a .4% gain in spending. They ended up revising the income number down, so income rose only by .2%, but they revised spending up. Spending went up by .5%. What does that mean? That means savings went down quite a bit, because, where did the money come from to finance the extra spending? It didn't come from income, so it came from savings, or it came from debt. Either people depleted their existing savings, or they went deeper into debt by putting their purchases on the credit card.
Spending Money Twice as Fast as They Are Earning It
But then, for the month of April, we got a .3% increase in income, which was anticipated, but spending, instead of rising by .4%, rose by .6%. So consumers are spending money twice as fast as they are earning it for the month of April: .6 up on spending, .3 up on earnings . So, again, what does this tell you? People are tapping into an already shallow savings pool or they are running up m0re credit card debt to buy stuff.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/2/2018 • 38 minutes, 56 seconds
Ep. 357: Populism a Bigger Problem in the U.S. Than Italy
Economy Slowing Down
We got quite a bit of economic data that was released today, pretty much all of it confirming what everybody seems to be denying, and that is that the U.S. economy is, in fact, slowing down, at least the way we like to measure it. We will get more data later in the week, of course we get the big number, the nonfarm payroll number, on Friday. We always get that number the first Friday of the month; this Friday is June 1, so we are going to get the May jobs number.
Last Month's ADP Jobs Number Revised Down
We got the ADP number that came out this morning. It was weaker than expected. In fact, there was a significant downward revision to the prior month, which was originally reported at 204,000 jobs. That was revised down to 163,000 jobs, so about a 20% reduction. This month, the consensus was 187,000 and we got 178,000; of course, that number will also be subject to revision next month. But, to me, that shows that we can potentially get a weaker number on Friday as well.
Decline in Refinances at an 18-Year Low
Earlier this morning, we got some data on mortgage re-fi's, which we get every week. We get the numbers on new mortgages and mortgage re-fi's. Everything is down. This makes sense, because mortgage rates are going up. In particular, the decline in refinances is to an 18-year low in mortgage re-fi's. One of the reasons that the inability to refinance your mortgage is going to become a problem is that re-fi's have been providing a lifeline to consumers to enable them to continue to spend.
Refinances Available as Property Values Rise
When you refinance your mortgage, you're generally doing it to reduce your monthly payment because you are able to qualify for a lower monthly payment. Some people who perhaps could not qualify a couple of years ago because they did not have enough home equity, but as real estate prices have risen that has enabled people who have been unable to refinance in the past to re-fi now. Especially for those who are doing a re-fi and are also doing a cash out.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/31/2018 • 45 minutes, 10 seconds
Ep. 356: Oil, Bonds, Currencies, Tariffs & Guns
Biggest Move in Crude Oil
Not much action today in the stock markets on this Friday before a 3-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. The action was really in the oil markets, the bond markets and the foreign exchange markets. The biggest move happening in crude oil. Crude was down just over $3/barrel today; one of the biggest declines I've seen in some time. We're back down to $67.50. Earlier in the week, we almost hit $73/barrel for crude, and here we are now at $67.50 - a pretty big drop today. We were down yesterday, also.
Speculation in the Market
The rumors today were that Russia and Saudi Arabia may be upping their production and it was that news that sent the market falling. But remember, markets don't move in a straight line. You get a lot of speculators who get into the market and generally they're not there for the long run; they're there to catch a trend, and they're there to ride it as long as they can. They tend to put stop orders in beneath the market. In the case of oil, if you're long, you'll have a sell stop and many of those stops likely got triggered today.
Technical Noise
You probably had some people trying to minimize their exposure. Either they limited their loss to the extent that they got in recently and they got stopped out with a loss or maybe they've been long for a while and they've been moving their stops higher to protect their profits and now they got stopped out of the trade. But I think this is more technical noise. I don't think this uptrend in the price of oil has changed based on this pullback from $73 now to $67.50. Maybe we've got a little more downside, but if you look at the chart, you can barely see the decline. The more recent uptrend that goes back to July - you look at this uptrend and it is holding perfectly. We're not even down to the line yet. We still have a little bit to fall before we hit that line.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/26/2018 • 39 minutes, 3 seconds
FOMC Is Far More Dovish Than the Minutes Imply – Ep. 355
Markets Rallied on Fed Minutes Interpreted as Dovish
Earlier today we got the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes and before the minutes came out (they come out at 2pm Eastern Time). Prior to the release, all the stock markets were down; the Dow was down maybe about 150 points or so, and when the minutes came out, we got a rally, and the Dow closed up about 50 points. So, a 200-point rally on the minutes, and the reason the minutes acted as a catalyst for the rally is that they were interpreted to be a bit more dovish than expected.
The Fed's Symmetrical Inflation Target
To me, the minutes were as expected; I had already been talking about the Fed's view that inflation can go above 2%. That they were willing to allow for some kind of "symmetrical" inflation. The symmetry in this case meaning, we were below 2% for a long time and so now we can be above 2%. I guess for some reason the markets focused in on that.
Specifically, the minutes read that
"A temporary period of inflation modestly above 2 percent would be consistent with the Committee's symmetric inflation objective and could be helpful in anchoring longer-run inflation expectations at a level consistent with that objective."
What does "Modest" Mean?
Now, I don't know why allowing inflation to be higher than 2% is somehow helpful toward achieving their 2% objective. To me, It would be more helpful if they just kept it at 2%, if indeed that was their real objective. But, even if you look at the language that they use, they don't really define what symmetrical could mean. They talk about inflation being "modestly" above 2%: What is "modestly"? Is is 2.1%? What about 2.5%? Is .5% "modest"? They don't really define what "modest" is. I have a feeling, again, that there's never going to be a definition, that it is going to be an ever-moving goal post. Even 3% could be "modest". "Hey, it's only 1%, right that's "modest", right?
Fed Is Impotent When It Comes to Inflation
But on a percentage basis, you wouldn't consider 3% modest. You're above 2% by 50%. 50% is not a modest percentage, but they could say 1% is a modest percentage. Who knows? I think the Fed is going to be looking for every excuse not to raise interest rates aggressively, no matter how high inflation gets. Of course, they're not going to be that transparent. The last thing they would want to do is to let the markets know that they are that impotent when it comes to inflation.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/24/2018 • 38 minutes, 4 seconds
Trade War Ends Before It Begins – Ep. 354
Solid Gains Today in the Major Stock Market Averages
We had solid gains today in the major stock market averages; the DJIA putting in the largest percentage gain, just over 1.2% or 298 points. I think at the highs, the Dow was up 370 and change, so a strong day, S&P, NASDAQ also up not quite as much calculated as percentages. The Russell 2000 was not up as much as the other averages but it is at a record high again today. I think it's the Russell 2000 that ultimately could make the biggest percentage drop once stock market traders start to figure out what's actually going to happen.
A Lot of Saber Rattling and Not a Lot of Fencing
But in the meantime, today, they were celebrating the cease fire in the trade war. Although, I don't think I should call it a cease fire because nobody actually fired a shot. It has been more of a war of words than a real conventional battle, I mean there was basically a lot of saber rattling and not a lot of fencing. But I think what happened today is that we callee a truce. Both sides sheathed their sabers and agreed that there is not going to be a war.
The Markets Have Not Adequately Priced in the Cost of a Trade War
And I think the markets were relieved, and so we got a relief rally based on that good news. Although I don't think the markets sufficiently priced in the cost of a hot trade war. I know Donald Trump said, "Oh, trade wars are easy to win." Believe me, if they were easy to win, we would have waged one. They're not easy to win. I don't think the markets really discounted how bad it would have been had the cold war turned hot.
Peace Dividend
Nonetheless, the fact that it wasn't going to happen - I think most people would agree that a trade war would be bad, and if now there is going to be trade peace, well there is a peace dividend and so we got that today.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/22/2018 • 35 minutes, 35 seconds
Bond Breakdown Gathers Momentum – Ep. 353
Las Vegas to Vancouver to Las Vegas
I'm recording today's podcast from my hotel room in Vancouver, Canada. I'm up here for a couple of days at the 2018 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and actually I left Las Vegas to come here; I am at the Las Vegas Money Show, I was there yesterday and I will be back again tomorrow for another talk, and on Thursday I am flying to Puerto Rico for another conference before heading back to Weston, Connecticut for the summer.
Debating Bonds with Gary Shilling
I was on a panel yesterday in Las Vegas at the Money Show and it was moderated by Mark Skousen, and one of the guys on the panel with me was Gary Shilling. And I've been arguing with Gary Shilling for a long time; there are plenty of YouTube videos of Shilling and myself over the years, arguing. He is basically a perma-bull when it comes to U.S. Treasuries. He is always bearish on the stock market and he's always bullish on the bond market. For a while, he was right to be bullish on the bond market, because we had a huge bull market in bonds. But the bull market appears to be over, yet Gary Shilling is as bullish as I have ever seen him on the U.S. bond market. He is also bullish on the dollar; I guess if you are always bullish on the bond market you are also bullish in the dollar because bonds are dollar I.O.U.'s.
Shilling: China Would Never Sell U.S. Bonds
Now I think this is one of the times when Gary Shilling is dead wrong. One if the points that he made that I challenged him on was when he started talking about China. He said the Chinese would never sell their U.S. Treasuries because if they sold them, the prices would collapse, and they would be destroying their own portfolio; therefore they are not going to sell because they do not want to destroy the value of the assets they might want to sell.
China Can Just Let Their T-Bills Mature
I pointed out to Gary that the Chinese don't have to sell any Treasuries to get out of them. They simply have to let them mature. Then it is not China who has to sell the Treasuries, but the U.S. Treasury who has to find a new buyer to replace China. If China were dumb enough to own a lot of 30-year government bonds, then they would have to put those bonds on the market. That would affect the price. In fact, if you were China, and you owned a trillion dollars worth of 30-year bonds, and you did try to sell, the price would collapse. China may be dumb, but they are not that dumb. They own a lot of T-bills, so they will mature in 30 days, 60 days, 90 days; they don't have to sell anything.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/16/2018 • 40 minutes, 31 seconds
Currency Traders Have It Backwards Ep. 352
[button link="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mANOqcnLtqA" color="lightgray" size="medium" stretch="" type="" shape="" target="_self" title="" gradient_colors="|" gradient_hover_colors="|" accent_color="" accent_hover_color="" bevel_color="" border_width="1px" icon="" icon_divider="yes" icon_position="left" modal="" animation_type="0" animation_direction="down" animation_speed="0.1" animation_offset="" alignment="left" class="" id=""]Mr. Schiff Goes to Washington[/button]
[button link="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mANOqcnLtqA" color="lightgray" size="medium" stretch="" type="" shape="" target="_self" title="" gradient_colors="|" gradient_hover_colors="|" accent_color="" accent_hover_color="" bevel_color="" border_width="1px" icon="" icon_divider="yes" icon_position="left" modal="" animation_type="0" animation_direction="down" animation_speed="0.1" animation_offset="" alignment="right" class="" id=""]Mr. Schiff Returns to Washington[/button]
The Bear Market Rally
The big story continues to be the bear market rally that has been going on in the U.S. dollar. The dollar index closed above 93. The low this year was just above 88, so we've risen above 5% so far in the U.S. dollar index. Year to date we're up on the dollar a little over 1%. We're still down about 6% from where the dollar ended 2016, but we've had this considerable rally in a relatively short period of time. To me, it has the makings of a bear market rally, a short-covering rally. There hasn't been any good economic news that would explain the strength of the dollar. In fact, I talked about Fed comments from last week which to me, are quite dovish when you have the Federal Reserve indicating a tolerance toward inflation above 2% talking about "symmetrical inflation" rather than keeping it below 2%, So to me, those are statements that would normally be negative for the dollar.
Technical Rally for Short-Covering
The economic data, the jobs numbers that came out last week - much weaker than expected, so all the information would actually argue against a more aggressive Fed, in favor of a more dovish Fed, yet the dollar is rising anyway. I think it's technical, I think it's short-covering and I think it is short-sighted.
Dollar Strong against Emerging Market Currencies
One of the areas where the dollar is the strongest is actually against the emerging market currencies. Not the currencies that are in the U.S. dollar index - that's dominated by the euro, the pound, the yen - but the emerging market currencies, they're the ones that are bearing the brunt of this sell-off, and it's a self-perpetuating problem, because as these emerging currencies go down, it puts upward pressure on their already increasing inflation rate. I think inflation is picking up all around the world, but if your currency is going down, that puts even more pressure on consumer prices, and the politicians of these emerging economies are resisting higher interest rates, both to combat increasing inflation and to support a weakening currency which is only adding fuel to the fire.
Currency Traders Have It Backwards
What's so ironic about all this is that traders are missing the bigger point. The United States is in the exact same predicament (only worse) than the emerging economies. We are going to be faced with the same set of dynamics, in that we are going to have risingPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/9/2018 • 31 minutes, 11 seconds
Consumers Won’t Be Comfortable with Higher Inflation – Ep. 351
Fed is Willing to Tolerate Higher Inflation
Today is the first Friday in May and that means we got the April Jobs Report released today, and before I actually get into the details of the jobs report, I want to talk about what happened with the Fed this week. I think that is the most significant news of the week. The Fed's statement on Wednesday and the comments from today are the real reasons we had the 300+ point rally in the Dow today, that's why we had the 400+point turnaround in the Dow on Thursday. It's all about the Fed and its willingness to tolerate higher inflation.
Fed Inserted the word "Symmetrical"
So we got the FOMC announcement on Wednesday after their 2-day meeting, and as expected, they left interest rates unchanged. The most significant part of the statement that accompanied the Fed's decision not to raise rates was inserting the word, "symmetrical" in their description of inflation. Up until Wednesday, the Fed was always worried that we didn't have enough inflation. The inflation rate was too low, and their goal was to get it up to their 2% level.
We Can Go Above 2% to the Same Extent We Were Below 2%
Now the Fed is saying that they are at 2% and they expect the rate to actually go above 2%, and they're OK with it. What they mean by symmetrical is that inflation was below 2%, at least the way they measure it. It's probably always been well above it, but let's just look at the government statistics. Based on the government statistics we had inflation of 1.4, 1.5, 1.6; it was always below 2. So now what they're saying is we can have some symmetry on the upside, meaning, all right, we can have 2.5, because 2.5 and 1.5. the average is 2.
The Fed is Actually Lifting Their Inflation Target
So what the Fed is really saying is their goal is not to have 2% inflation, their goal is to have inflation that averages 2%. So if we've had inflation of under 2% for all these years, we can have inflation of over2% by the same proportion for the same number of years and they we would have averaged 2% inflation for the entire time. So, in reality, what the Fed is really doing, and I have been saying this all along - for years and years - they are actually lifting their inflation target.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/5/2018 • 35 minutes, 10 seconds
Sell in May and Go Away – Ep. 350
Market Tends to Produce Better Returns in the First 4 Months of the Year
There is an old Wall Street adage: "Sell in May and Go Away". The reason for that saying is that seasonally, the market tends to produce better returns in the first 4 months of the year, January through April, and then, historically, beginning in May and throughout the summer, the market can generally go down, and I think the time to buy back in is typically September/October. There are a lot of big down days, down months, crashes, so get out of the market in May, go away and then come back later in the year and buy back what you sold.
Selling Started Right out of the Gate
Today was May 1 and it looked like a lot of people were not going to wait to sell; they were selling right on the open. The Dow was down all day. At the worst, it was down better than 300 points but it pared its losses significantly, down just 64. But the NASDAQ, which was never actually down that much (when the Dow was down 300 the NASDAQ was down only about 25) the NASDAQ ended up positive 64. The S&P was up just under 7 points.
Facebook Getting into the Dating Business
Stocks were under pressure all day. I think the turnaround in Facebook - Facebook ended up a couple of percent. Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to try to clamp down - I think he said he would have 20,000 people working in compliance. They also announced that they are going into the dating business. I'm surprised it has taken Facebook so long to get into that space. It seems such an obvious fit. They already have everybody's profile. I think some of the other online sites, Match Group which owns Plenty of Fish are falling. It's like Amazon stepping into your market.
Heading toward 20,000
The market turned around and maybe that news lifted the NASDAQ, but to me, it was a weak day, the market was generally under pressure. The Dow did manage to hold onto the 20,000 mark. We were well below it - we were close to 23800. It is really going to get interesting is when the Dow gets down to 20,000. I think that's where we're headed.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/2/2018 • 32 minutes, 20 seconds
Guaranteed Jobs Guarantees Disaster – Ep. 349
Markets Down But Not by as Much as Expected
All the major U.S. stock markets were down on the week, but not by as much as I thought. We got that big drop on Monday, where we got the very bad reaction to even better than expected earnings. Plus, with interest rates rising, I thought we would have had more selling, but we didn't we actually rallied back most of the week from the big Monday decline, not enough to recover all of the losses, but the total losses on the week were not that bad. The Dow was down today, actually, by about 11 points. The NASDAQ eked out a small gain as did the S&P 500.
Yield on the 10-Year Highest Since Financial Crisis
Interest rates were moving up. In fact, the yield on the 10-year on Wednesday hit 3.035%. This is the highest it has been since before the Financial Crisis and I think one of the reasons that the stock market recovered a bit this week was because investors breathed a sigh of relief that the yield didn't stay above 3%. We closed above 3% on that Monday, I think it was 3.024%, but then we dropped on Thursday and dropped again on Friday; we went out at 2.957%, and that's only a slight increase from the 2.951% that yields closed at the prior week.
Existing Rates High Enough for Significant Damage
I think the markets are lulling in a false sense of security if they think that it's just one and done. "We finally took out 3%, maybe we cleared out some stops, and that's it. Yields have peaked, so there's nothing to worry about." As I said on my last podcast, even if this is the peak, I think it is already high enough to do significant damage to the economy, to the financial markets, to U.S. government finances. But - it's not the peak.
Rising Bond Yields Are Not Bullish for the Dollar
Rates have barely begun to rise and I think they are going a lot higher. Higher rates did continue to support the dollar. The dollar actually had a strong week; the dollar index closed up just over 1% on the week. It was down slightly today, so we surrendered some gains earlier this morning, but it was still an up week for the dollar. Again, I think those people who are buying the dollar are going to lose a lot of money if they don't turn around and sell. I think this is a sucker rally. As I said in my last podcast: Rising bond yields are not bullish for the dollar.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/28/2018 • 33 minutes, 41 seconds
Good Earnings Can’t Support an Over-Priced Stock Market – Ep. 348
The Correction is Over and the Bear Market is Resuming
As I have been speaking about in my last couple of podcasts, it looks like the period of relative calm in the markets is over and the next leg down has begun. So the correction is also over - not the downward move - that is not the correction - this is the bear market. The upward move was the correction. It was the first correction in this young bear market. Technically it is not a bear market yet because we're not down 20% but that is only a matter of time. So I think the correction is over and the bear market is resuming, the primary trend being down.
Dow Transports Big Losers
In fact, the U.S. stock market was down for its fifth consecutive day, although today was the biggest decline. The Dow ended down 424 points. We managed to close just above 24,000 at 24,024. But we were well below. At the lows of the day we were down about 600 points. Percentage wise we were down 1.74%. The NASDAQ, about the same, down 1.7%. At the lows it was down close to 150 points on the NASDAQ. Percentage wise, the Dow transports were the big losers, down 221 points - 2.08%.
Earnings Don't Matter
Now, one of the things that investors have been counting on to support stock prices and, in fact, drive them higher, were earnings. Everybody's been saying, "Earnings are going to be higher!" Now what have I been saying on my podcasts, over the last several months? I've been saying that it doesn't matter, because all these great earnings, if they materialize, are already baked into the cake. They are already discounted into the price of the stocks. So in other words, they don't matter. It's "buy the rumor, sell the fact".
Double Whammy of Faster Growth and Lower Taxes
If everybody knows that earnings are going to be good, well, they've priced in those expectations into the market. Why do you think the market has gone up so much since Trump was elected President? It was on the anticipation of all these earnings that were going to come from a combination of faster growth and lower taxes. In fact, the lower taxes are why we were going to get the growth, so it was going to be a double whammy. Well, all that was priced into the market.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/24/2018 • 32 minutes, 29 seconds
The Eye of the Hurricane – Ep. 347
Another Friday Down Day
It looks like the period of calm may be coming to an end and the storm may be looming just over the horizon. The Dow Jones finished down today, just over 200 points off the day's low. I think I saw us down about 280. This was the 4th consecutive Friday where the markets were lower - there was a holiday in there (Good Friday) - it has been 5 Fridays. This seems to be a trend. The markets still managed to eke out a gain on the week. All 3 of the major indexes managed gains despite the losses on Friday.
Investors Should Really Worry about the Bond Market
What should really be worrying investors are the losses this week in the bond market. Yields continue to ratchet up almost every day, and in fact we closed at the high point all across the curve, from the 2-year all the way up to the 30-year. The 1--year yield, which is the one everybody seems to be talking about closed at 2.96%. So this is a new high for the year. You've got to go back to pre-2008 financial crisis to get a yield up that high. But the yield is still very very low.
Who Believes that 3% Yields are Here to Stay?
The amazing thing is to look at the 30-year. The 30-year is 3.15. It's actually just under 20 basis points - 19 basis points is all you get for taking 20 additional years of interest rate and inflation risk. Think about that! Think about how crazy that is. Interest rates right now on the 10-year are just under 3%; on the 30-year they are slightly above 3%. Why would anybody believe that 3% yields are here to stay?
Low Rates Are an Aberration
Obviously, if you go back to the post-war period and look at what rates have averaged on the 10-year, these low rates are an aberration. They've been going on now, for a while, but they can't go on forever, Yet the market thinks it's going to go on for another 30 years. If you think about a 30-year bond, that's like buying a 10-year bond today, holding it for 10 years, letting it mature, then buying another 10-year bond, holding that one for 10 years, letting it mature and buying another one! So you do that 3 times over 30 years, in theory it should give us the same rate as buying one 30-year bond right now.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/20/2018 • 27 minutes, 26 seconds
Calm Before the Storm – Ep. 346
Podcast Break: Investor Summit at Sea
I apologize to everybody who has been waiting patiently for my next podcast. Las week I went the entire week without doing a podcast, which is unusual. If you are a regular listener to this podcast you'll know that I was on a cruise ship all last week; I was on the Real Estate Guys' cruise. The internet connections on a ship are very slow; particularly the upload speeds - plus I was very busy, so I really decided to take a week off from podcasting.
Markets Were Overall Quiet
You know, there really wasn't that much that happened last week. the markets were overall quiet, although the U.S stock market rallied, gold didn't do much, the dollar didn't do much; no real earth-shattering news, so I didn't see any reason why I couldn't wait until I was back onshore, which is what I'm doing, and in fact, I was so busy today that it is very late on a Monday night and I'm just trying to get this podcast recorded today.
FOMC Minutes Released
First of all, I'll talk about some if the stuff that happened last week. We did get the release of the FOMC minutes, in fact, after the minutes came out we had a pretty big drop in the price of gold. Gold did manage to get all the way up to about 1365 during the week before selling off and I think the Fed minutes were a catalyst to get gold to sell off. Of course, it really can't get much below 1330; there is a lot of buying that comes in down there.
Fed Half Right
The read on the minutes was that they were hawkish in that the Fed was signaling that the economy is going to keep strengthening and inflation is going to keep rising. Well, at least they're half right. The economy isn't going to keep strengthening, but inflation will keep rising,
PPI Close to a Breakout
In fact, they're not even half right: They're right that inflation is going to go up, but it is going to go up by a lot more than they think, so even the part they got right they really got wrong. We did get some inflation numbers - official measures of inflation that the government released last week. If you look particularly at the Producer Price Index, core producer prices rose at the fastest pace in 7 years. And if you look at a chart, we're very close to a breakout of resistance on core PPI. Core CPI also up a little better than expected, but this is just the beginning of a trend. During the week oil prices made new highs. We got above $67 a barrel, so we're continuing to get closer and closer to 70 and eventually and 100. It's not just oil prices that are rising, it's pretty much commodities prices across the board.
Fed Will not Deliver Rate Hikes
But the Fed is not going to be able to deliver the rate hikes that the market is expecting and, again, it is the expectation of more rate hikes that is keeping a lid on the price of gold, but it's only a matter of time before the market blows the lid off and the price of gold goes up.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/17/2018 • 28 minutes, 31 seconds
Trump Warns Investors to Prepare for Pain – Ep. 345
Wednesday Reversal Day
On my Wednesday podcast, I talked about Wednesday reversal day, where we gapped way down and then rallied and closed up. It was a strong outside reversal day. I thought this could be the beginning of a correction. The correction meaning a rise in a bear market. Everybody thinks we're in a correction now of a bull market, but I think the bull market is over and a rise is the correction.
Three Consecutive Up Days
So I thought maybe we'll get one based on that reversal day, and we did. For one day. The market was up on Thursday; I think the Dow was up better than 200 points, so we did have some follow through to Tuesday and Wednesday's gains. We had 3 consecutive up days. Remember we had a big down day on Monday, but then we had those 3 up days.
End of Bear Market Correction
Well the whole correction came to an end today. The Dow at one point again was down better than 700 points; we didn't close that badly - we were down 572 points. Still, below 24,000; 23,932. This is only the second close below 24,000 this year, on a weekly basis. The last time was 2 weeks ago. The NASDAQ was down 161 points back below 7000 - 6915.
Dangerous Territory in Dow Transports
Dow Transports were also down big. They were down 307 points, just barely avoiding the Dow Theory sell signal. So we're not quite there. We can easily be there on Monday. If we have another down day on Monday, it seems that we're going to have a sell signal for the Dow Theory.
Pattern Developing
That seems to be the pattern: big down day Friday followed by a big down day Monday. Believe me the technicals on this market look awful. So there is certainly another chance that we have another big sell off on Monday. This entire bear market so far, we've had a pattern of a big sell off on Fridays and Mondays and sometimes we get a big down day, we don't get the follow through on Monday, but to me, this looks like it's all clear on the way down.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/7/2018 • 31 minutes, 23 seconds
Americans Have the Most to Lose in a Trade War – Ep. 344
Extreme Volatility
It was another extremely volatile day in the U.S. stock market. When I finished my podcast on Monday and we had that big drop, I suspected that Tuesday might be a reversal Tuesday. So I thought we'd get a bounce on Tuesday and, in fact we did. We had a big rally; the Dow was up 400 points or so. Then this morning the Dow opened up down 500 points. In fact when I woke up this morning, a couple of hours before the market opened, the Dow was down closer to 600.
Reversing Up
Typically when we get these huge sell offs right on the open because overnight weakness, what generally happens is that we end up reversing up - getting some buying after we open the markets down, and that's exactly what happened. The markets ended up recovering the entire loss. We closed around the highs of the day: the Dow up 230 points and the NASDAQ up just over 100 points. This is a reversal. Checking the numbers, the Dow did not take out yesterday's low but the NASDAQ and the S&P did. All the markets closed above the previous day's high.
Bear Market: Primary Trend is Down
I'm sure some people will look at these numbers and say, "Hey, this is a technical reversal, we took out the lows we closed above the highs, it's an outside day and this is maybe the end of the correction. I do think potentially we could have more to the rally. But I think the rally is the correction. I still think this is a bear market. We narrowly avoided the Dow Theory sell. The Dow Theory is still on a buy, and now we have a bit of a reversal, so maybe this correction has a little more legs. The correction being the move up. I think the primary trend is down. I don't think today's reversal is big enough to have put in the low of this correction if it is a correction. So I still think that we are in a bear market.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/4/2018 • 31 minutes, 18 seconds
Markets Slide a Slope of Hope – Ep. 343
Really a Head Fake
As I suspected and as I stated in my last podcast at the end of the first quarter, I speculated that the rally that closed out the quarter was really a head fake. When the quarter started, I said you would see a resumption of the downtrend of the evolving bear market, which I believe we are already in.
Bear Market
Even though technically we're not there yet because we're not down 20%, but you can't get to 20% without first hitting 10%. Although not officially acknowledged, we are in a bear market. Just as often a recession is not acknowledged until after 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, but clearly you're in the recession for a long time before it's officially acknowledged. That doesn't mean you weren't in a recession before they admitted it, albeit not officially. Similarly, they haven't proclaimed this bear market.
The Fed Could Change the Game
There's one caveat: if the Federal Reserve comes in and changes the game by taking away the rate hikes or launching QE4, then we may never make it to a bear market. But if the Fed continues on its current path and maintains the current pretense, then we are in a bear market and it's only a question of time before it is officially acknowledged.
No Real News to Blame for Sell Off
As I expected, traders came back from the Passover/Easter break and started to sell. They came in almost out of the bell; no real news to blame the selloff on. Now they tried to blame it on Trump and the tariffs, and while I agree that tariffs are a problem, there was nothing new over the weekend. Yes, China came out and announced a couple of billion dollars worth of tariffs on some agricultural products, etc, but this was not unanticipated. Anybody who did not think this was coming - c'mon - China could have could have done a lot worse than this.
Any News is an Excuse to Sell
In fact, the market could have just as easily rallied on the fact that this is such a small response and they could have said, "Oh, this is nothing, it could have been a lot worse!" So the markets could have bought, if they were in a buying mood. But this is a bear market, and so all news is bad news. So, whatever the news is, that's an excuse to sell.
Chinese Tariffs on Agricultural Products
But what it does, is it lulls investors into a false sense of security: "Well, the market's not going down for any reason", "It's not because we're in a bear market, it's because of the reaction to the news that the Chinese are going to have tariffs on agricultural products.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/3/2018 • 35 minutes, 52 seconds
Quarter Ends but Pain Begins – Ep. 342
Holiday Rally
Major U.S. stock markets managed to finish a holiday-shortened week with strong rallies. The Dow Jones was up 254 points on the day; earlier in the day it was up better than 400, so the last hour did see the U.S. markets giving up part of their gains. The NASDAQ up 114 points, S&P up 35.87 points, so these rallies today were enough to put the market in the black for the week. But not for the month - all the markets are down significantly in the month of March, and also for the first quarter. All the major stock market indexes are down.
First Down Quarter in 10
This was the first time in 10 quarters - we had 9 consecutive positive quarters. I think that's a record; I'm not sure, but 9 consecutive up quarters. The U.S. stock market finally broke that winning streak. We'll see how investors who thought U.S. stocks can only go up, we'll see how they may react to their first down quarter in 10, but it's not going to be the last down quarter. It's not going to be the last down quarter. I think its going to be the beginning of several down quarters to come. Remember the market action that I've been observing really looks to me like a bear market.
Window Dressing
Today, of course, window dressing; oftentimes you see rallies on the last day of the quarter. Managers maybe are trying to buy up some of the stocks they own to dress up their statements so they look better so they can bill on higher portfolio value. If you have enough people doing the same thing: paint the tape, whatever you want to call it, you can get some of these rallies. But my guess would be that we can quickly undo this rally next week when the second quarter begins, and maybe some people who are looking at the quarterly performance decide that this is it. We rode the upstream and let me allocate some of the money out of U.S. stocks, whether it's to bonds, whether it's to foreign stocks or because they want to go to cash, whatever, we can certainly see some reallocations beginning early next quarter.
Don't Screw up the Final Day of the Quarter
Especially if some of these downtrends that really broke in some of these major stocks. I talked about some of the big losers on my last podcast, and a lot of those stocks got clobbered yesterday; they did manage to rally back today. Maybe Donald Trump was being careful about his tweets today because he didn't want to screw up the final day of the quarter.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/30/2018 • 37 minutes, 55 seconds
Investors Remain Oblivious to Flashing Warning Signs – Ep. 341
Incredible Stock Market Volatility
We're having more incredible stock market volatility and I've spoken about the pickup in volatility as another sign that things are different; that we've had a change. Increased volatility usually happens at inflection points, especially when we had a record period of minimum volatility. A of a sudden, we're having incredible swings in the stock market. Case in point: Monday and Tuesday.
Up Day on Friday
When I did my podcast on Friday, I thought maybe we could have a Black Monday. We had a big down day on Friday, we had a big down day on Thursday. The market was down around 1100 points in 2 days. Could we have another big down day? Of course we actually ended up having a massive up day, in fact, I think the Dow was up better than 700 points on Friday. It closed 600 and change; not quite 700. The NASDAQ was up about 220 points, so even a bigger percentage move.
How to Boil a Frog
So we had this huge gain, and what a lot of people don't realize is that the stock market has some of its biggest daily gains in a bear market, not in bull markets. You have some spectacular rallies in bear markets. That is how bear markets operate. They are trying to follow the slope of hope. It's like trying to boil a frog. You turn up the heat slowly so the frog doesn't notice the temperature change and jump out. The idea is when you have these big spikes in the market, that creates some hope and optimism to hold on to stocks, thinking the decline is over. People are afraid to miss out on the next big up day, so it keeps people in the market, like keeping the frog in the water.
The Rally that Wasn't
So yesterday we had this huge rally and today we started off with another rally; the Dow was up over 200 points early on, NASDAQ was up 40 or 50 points and then by mid day the market rolled over. At one point the Dow was down better than 400 points. The NASDAQ at its lows was actually down more than the gain yesterday. Now there was a small rally on the close, the NASDAQ was only down 211 so about 10 points less than yesterday.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/28/2018 • 36 minutes, 9 seconds
Will Gold Breakout as Stocks Breakdown? – Ep. 340
The Rally that Failed
On my last podcast, which I recorded on Wednesday, I pointed out that the market's failure to hold the rally in the aftermath of the rate hike. In the face of all of the bullish statements made by Powell about how great everything was, and how strong the economy was, we had a near 300 point rally that failed.
All Systems Go for a Market Decline
The Dow surrendered the entire rally, closed on the lows of the day; not a huge decline - it was only about a 45 point decline, but seems significant to me was the reversal. The fact that the market could not hold onto those gains - to me, that looked technically very weak. And I said on that podcast that I thought all systems were go for a stock market decline.
Not a Correction
Of course, I had a lot of other anecdotal evidence and things that I look at that had been leading me to believe that more down side was coming. In fact, I have never believed that we are in a correction. Everybody wants to talk about it on television - it's a stock market correction, because they don't consider it a bear market until you're down 20%.
In a Bear Market
Well, in every bear market, before you get down 20%, you've got to be down 10%. So if this is a bear market, if we ultimately go down by more than 20%, then this is a bear market right now. It's only a correction if it doesn't turn into a bear market. But if it becomes a bear market, it's been a bear market the entire time. I think we are in a bear market.
Fed Will Come in with Live Support
Now, I don't believe this bear market will be as bad as it could be. This market could go down way over 50%; I am not expecting that, because I do believe that the Federal Reserve will come in at some point and save the market, or at least try to save the market. But I think it's going to be a bear market before that happens, meaning the Dow will have to be below 20,000 before the Fed actually realizes that it needs to be put on life support.
1154 Point Decline in 2 Days
But what happened yesterday - the Dow dropped 724 points, huge decline, and then again today we were down another 424 points. 1154 point decline in 2 days. The bigger decline, percentage wise happened on the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ still hasn't made a new low for this move. It did close today below 7000, down 174 points, 2.43% on the day, but we still have further to go.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/24/2018 • 36 minutes, 41 seconds
Is the Fed Losing Control of the Narrative? – Ep. 339
Fed Surprised No OneToday, the Federal Reserve surprised nobody. They raised interest rates by 25 basis points; the 6th rate hike since the Fed began, in December of 2015. The rate is now between 1.5% and 1.75%, so the midpoint of that is around 1.635. So we're still significantly below 2%, but I guess we're closer to 2% than 1% and obviously, we're a lot higher than zero which is where rates stood during most of the Obama Administration.The Fed Already Broke ItAs I said in my last podcast, everybody was convinced the Fed was going to raise rates, which is probably the reason they did it. The Fed doesn't want to upset the apple cart; the Fed does not want to concern anybody; if anything seems to be going well, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Of course, the Fed already broke it although the Fed does not understand that.Fed Looking All the Way out to 2020In fact what the market was looking for was an indication of whether or not the Fed was going to hike 3 times this year, or would they hike 4 times. I still don't think they know, although the consensus seems to be that as a result of today's statement and press conference, we're going to get 3 rate hikes this year, which means 2 more, not 3 more, but it's still not a done deal. But the Fed seems to be even more optimistic ab0ut the economy going forward, so the Fed is predicting 3 more rate hikes in 2019 and then more rate hikes in 2020. So the Fed is looking all the way out to 2020, saying the economy is going to be great, and we're going to keep on raising rates.Fed's Optimism Waxes as Economic Reality WanesIn fact, the Fed seemed more optimistic about the U.S. economy then they were in the past, which, to me, is all politics. Powell is up there, trying to talk up the U.S. economy because that's exactly what his boss, Donald Trump, wants him to say, so he is being a team player. One of the funnier parts of Powell's prepared statement is that he said the outlook for growth has been improving in recent weeks. Recent weeks! How is he saying that the outlook for growth has been improving when it has done the opposite?Q1 GDP Forecasts CollapseSix weeks ago the Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP Estimate was at 5.4%. The are now down at 1.8%. Those are the same weeks where Powell says the economic outlook has been improving. How is it improving when you have a collapse from expecting 5.4% to expecting 1.58%? It's not just the Atlanta Fed. All the investment banks, everybody who forecasts GDP growth has ratcheted down their foresasts significantly in the very weeks where Powell is now saying the economy is improved.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/22/2018 • 30 minutes, 46 seconds
Is the March Rate Hike Really a Lock? – Ep. 338
Tomorrow is the first of the Fed's 2-day Federal Open Market Committee Meeting, and it's going to be the first meeting where there is supposed to be a rate hike and a press conference for the new chairman, Jerome Powell. The markets are pretty much at 100% probability that the Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday. What the markets are grappling with is whether or not the Fed will raise rates 4 times this year, or only 3.
Now, if they are going to raise them 4 times, it would mean they raised rates once per quarter. So they raise them in March, they raise them in June, they raise them in September and then they raise them again in December. Now, if they only do it 3 times, then, they pick one of these quarters where they don't do it. Most likely, if they only do 3 hikes, the hike they're going to skip is going to be the June hike. And, of course, if they skip the June hike, they're probably not going to hike in September or December, either because the economy will be much weaker by then, the U.S. stock market could be much lower. The fact is, I'm still not 100% sure that the Fed is going to hike on Wednesday.
I would agree that it is more likely than not that the Fed is going to hike, because they've been hiking interest rates all along. The Fed so far has not given any indication that they're not going to hike because they don't want to give up the ghost of this "vibrant recovery", where they need to raise rates because everything is going so well. But that whole narrative, that whole illusion seems to be fading very quickly. As a matter of fact, on Friday the Atlanta Fed's model for Q1 GDP went down another notch! They are now down to 1.8% for Q1 GDP. Now does it sound like the Fed should be rushing to hike rates when GDP growth for Q1 is only going to be 1.8%? Does that sound like an economy that is in danger of overheating? When they were at 5.4% 6 weeks ago or so and now they're down to 1.8% and falling? For all we know, we could end up being below 1%.
Does the Fed really want to add more downward pressure to an accelerating economy by raising interest rates? So far, everybody just assumes that they're going to hike rates. but we'll see. Another factor that may weigh on the Fed's decision is the stock market. We still have tomorrow and Wednesday morning for the stock market to tank. Today, the tanking process already began.
At one point today, the Dow was down almost 500 points. At its low it was down around 490. The NASDAQ, the bigger decliner was down almost 200 points intra day. Now the markets recouped some of those losses, so the NASDAQ only closed down 137 points; that's still a 1.84% drop. It's a big drop, not nearly as big as 200. The Dow was down 335. It's back in the red on the year. The Dow was down about 100 points so far this year. We're only about 800 Dow points above the closing low from March. I think we're more like maybe 1300 Dow points above the intra-day low in the U.S. session. But who knows? the market could tank tomorrow, we'll see, and then, is the Fed going to hike rates with the market tanking?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/20/2018 • 35 minutes, 47 seconds
The Worse Things Get, the Less Investors Notice – Ep. 337
Retail Sales Down Three Months in a Row
I've got so much to talk about today, it's hard to even figure out where to begin. So I'll start with some of the economic data that came out today, in particular, the February Retail Sales number. Remember last month we had a bad number, -.3, the second month in a row we had a decline in retail sales. The expectation was for a big rebound in February, +.4. Now, I suppose the good news, if you are looking for retail sales to pick up is that they revised the January number upward from -.3 to -.1. Still a drop, but not quite as big. But instead of getting a rebound, we got another drop! We got another .1% decline in February. That's a trifecta. Three months in a row of falling retail sales. That hasn't happened in 6 years. This is pretty rare.
Great Jobs, Lousy Sales
Why is this happening? Remember on Friday, we got this "beautiful", too-good-to-be-true, just what the doctor ordered jobs report that said about a million people got jobs. Why didn't any of those million people take their paychecks and spend them at a retailer? Trump is talking about all the great jobs and all the raises that people are getting and all the tax cuts, why are retail sales down for 3 months in a row?
Spike in Inventory Numbers
In fact, we also got some inventory numbers that came out that spiked up because of an 18-month slump in sales. So inventories are building because nobody is buying what's on the shelf. Well, that doesn't make sense if you believe the economy is great and we've got all these jobs. But if you're like me and you've been very skeptical of the economy being good, this is a validation, because Americans are broke.
Borrowing at Record Highs
This is despite the fact that borrowing is at a record high. Consumers are borrowing a lot of money, yet they're not spending it on retailers, what are they doing with the borrowed money? The government is borrowing a lot of money, we're running these huge deficits, yet it is not even affecting retail sales. That is really the goal, they want people to go out and shop, and it's not happening.
Atlanta Fed Again Lowers Q1 GDP Estimate
After the retail sales numbers came out, we got the Atlanta Fed updating their forecast for Q1 GDP. Remember, this is the forecast that was at 5.4% about 5 or 6 weeks ago. Of course, you remember on my podcast, as soon as that came out, I said, "This is crazy. There's no way we're going to be anywhere near that. They will be doing this limbo for weeks and months and they're going to be lowering the bar". On Friday, I reported on my podcast that they has lowered the bar to 2.5%, the lowest forecast since they started forecasting Q1 for 2018. And what I said on Friday was, "They aren't done going lower. there's room for this bar to go down". I said I thought that the GDP for Q1 would be under 2%.
Goldman Sachs Also Lowers Q1 GDP Forecast to 1.9%
Today, after these retail sales numbers, the Atlanta Fed went down to 1.9%. That is a decline of 65% in their forecast from 5 or 6 weeks ago. It's not just the Atlanta Fed. Goldman Sachs is now at 1.9%. And you know what? This is probably not the low water mark. I think there is at least a 50-50 shot that we end up with a zero handle on Q1 GDP.
Borrowing Q2 GDP Growth and Shoving it into Q1
Given how weak the data has been coming in, especially the big trade deficits. The only reason we might end with a 1 handle and not a zero handle is these rising inventories. In the short run, they give a boost to the GDP, but if inventories are rising because nobody is spending, what does that mean? That means that businesses are going to allow the inventories to wind down, they're not going to keep stocking up. So what we're doing is we're borrowing GDP growth from Q2 and we're shoving it into Q1.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/15/2018 • 40 minutes, 58 seconds
Tariffs Are Not Good for Workers
NASDAQ New High
The stock market had one of its best days of the year; I think it was the second best day. The Dow was up 440 points - just under 1.8%. The NASDAQ was up 132 points; about the exact same percentage as the Dow. The NASDAQ is now at an all-time record high! It closed at 7,60.81. That is a new record. We have taken out the high from before the 10% correction. The NASDAQ is the only major index that has done that. That is not the case for the Dow, the S&P or even the Russell 2000, but the NASDAQ has taken off.
Optimism Around Stocks Not Affected by Tariffs
Remember I talked about this on my last podcast; people are trying to create the idea that these tariffs might be good for U.S. based companies, maybe some of our technology companies. I don't know how people are trying to spin this thing, but there's a lot of optimism about the sector of the economy that people believe will be not affected by the tariffs. Maybe there is a narrower set of stocks that everybody wants to pile into, and those stocks are disproportionately in the NASDAQ.
Perfect Nonfarm Payrolls Report
But the catalyst today was the perfect Nonfarm Payroll Report that came out today. If I were a conspiratorial person, which I am not, you could really say, "Wait a minute. This looks too good to be true. This is just what the doctor ordered ." Remember, last time we had the jobs report, even though the jobs number itself was weaker than expected, the markets were spooked by the bigger jump in wages. In fact, a lot of people thought that the 2.9% YoY growth in wages, and I think the month number was up maybe +.3, that that was really the catalyst for the big sell-off that we had. In fact, that was the number that everybody was looking for; not maybe the headline number, but the wage number. People wanted to confirm that wages were really growing.
Market Worries Boost in Employment Might Hike Wages Too Much
Trump, of course, every time he talks, he talks about the enormous growth in wages that is really not taking place, although, the President talks about a lot of things that aren't happening and claims credit for them. But the market was worried that we might get a bigger boost in wages which might mean inflation is coming, maybe the Fed will have to raise rates 4 times, instead of 3 times.
Beautiful Statistics
But yesterday, I watched the President's speech, and I'll get to that later, when he talked about the tariffs. One of the things he was talking about when he was talking about the statistics, and specifically he was talking about the jobs numbers and the unemployment numbers - he referred to the statistics as being "beautiful". Everything was perfect, we had record low numbers: African-American unemployment was down, unemployment rate the lowest in I don't know how many years, and he said, "These statistics are beautiful!" That is his new word to describe government employment statistics.
Phony, Fake, Fraud, a Joke, Fiction, a Hoax
Well he had different words to describe those identical statistics when he was a candidate, and beautiful wasn't among them. The words that he used as a candidate when describing the government jobs numbers were: phony, fake, fraud, a joke, fiction, a hoax. Those were the adjectives he used when he was a candidate. Now he says the numbers are beautiful.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/10/2018 • 32 minutes, 22 seconds
All Government Economists Should Be Fired – Ep. 335
Continued Stock Market Volatility
The U.S. stock market continues to be extremely volatile, and as I have said many times on this podcast, I think this volatility following a long-term record lack of volatility is a good sign that the uptrend has changed. So there's a good chance that the bull market is now a bear market, although few people seem to realize that. We're still relatively close to the highs. In fact, the NASDAQ shrugged off the morning weakness and managed to gain for the fourth day in a row.
Choosing the Best Seats on the Titanic
I'm actually hearing people commenting that tariffs or a trade war could benefit U.S. companies; give them an edge over the multinationals. All this is wishful thinking. Maybe they're trying to argue that there are some seats on the Titanic that are better than others. Believe me, if the economy tanks, and the tariffs or a trade war exacerbate it, there will not be a place to hide in U.S. stocks.
Market Spooked by Cohn Resignation
The volatility started last night with the announcement of the resignation of President Trump's Chief Economic Advisor Gary Cohn. One of the reasons that his resignation spooked the market (Dow futures initially tumbled about 400 points) was that he is opposed to the tariffs. The fact that he is leaving would leave people to believe Cohn has lost that argument internally at the White House, so he is leaving a path to which he has objected. For people who were thinking that Cohn would rein in the President, and that his rhetoric will not lead to action, now believe that Trump will go forward with the tariffs. So that's why the market sold off.
NASDAQ Finished Positive for the Fourth Day in a Row
By the time we opened up, the futures had moved off their lows and for most of the day the Dow traded between down a little over 100 and down 300. But we had a rally near the end of the day. The Dow closed down only about 82, and as I said earlier the NASDAQ finished positive for the fourth day.
Exemptions for Canada and Mexico Good News - For Canada and Mexico
Part of the news is that Trump is considering exempting Mexico and Canada from the tariffs. That's supposedly good news; I guess it lessens the probability that those countries will retaliate, but of course, a large portion of the deficits that Trump is concerned about in steel and aluminum, that's where the deficits originate. So the markets rallied on that news. Also the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso rallied on that.
Mexico and Canada Will Have More Trading Partners
If these rumors are true, and you never know; the President can change his mind from tweet to tweet, but if, in fact, the tariffs are enacted, exempting Canada and Mexico, that is great news for Mexico and Canada. They are going to benefit from these tariffs. The U.S. economy will not. Mexico and Canada will be able to sell more steel and aluminum to American consumers at even higher prices. So they will benefit, just as domestic steel companies with benefit. Canadian and Mexican steel exporters can shop the entire world, whereas American manufacturers will be limited to North American sources.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/8/2018 • 32 minutes, 14 seconds
America Can’t Win a Trade War – Ep. 334
Trade, Comparative Advantage and Protectionism
I want to devote this entire podcast on the subject of trade and comparative advantage and protectionism, and this trade war that President Trump is so confident about. He wants to declare war because he thinks we are going to win. He's a winner, and he wants America to win and so he wants to launch a trade war so that America can win.
The Trade Deficit is the Problem
I've been talking about how the trade deficits are at record highs. We have the biggest trade deficits ever and Donald Trump, when he was a candidate rightly criticized these trade deficits. They are a huge problem. They are endemic of an even bigger problem, and Trump understands that. He knows enough to realize that trade deficits are bad. I will give him credit where credit is due because most economists don't even see the problem with these trade deficits. They are wrong. Trump is right. The trade deficit is a problem.
Tariffs Will Not Solve the Problem
But where Trump is wrong is in thinking that these tariffs are going to solve the problem. They won't. They will make the problem worse. This is the irony of these tariffs. They will result in larger trade deficits, not smaller trade deficits. And that's even without any foreign retaliation; meaning, if China, if Europe, if our trading partners do nothing in response to these tariffs, the result will be larger, not smaller deficits. Manufacturing jobs - the very jobs that Trump is hoping to save will be lost as a result of these tariffs.
Mr. Trump: Slash Regulations!
I wish someone in the Trump administration, would share this podcast with President Trump. He needs to really this about economics, to understand what needs to be done. If Trump really wants to shrink America's trade deficit, there are ways to do that. He could slash regulations, not just talk about all the regulations, but actually slash a bunch of them.
Shrink Government
But the most important thing that Trump could do to make America more competitive in manufacturing is to shrink government. We need to cut government spending on a massive scale. We need to reform entitlements. These are things that President Trump doesn't want to touch. He's making government bigger. What we need is more savings. We need more capital investment in plant and equipment - but that's not happening. These larger deficits are going to crowd out what little investment we have.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/4/2018 • 47 minutes, 46 seconds
Powell Optimism Belies Data – Ep. 333
Second Consecutive 300-Point Drop in the Dow
The Dow Jones was down 380 points today, in fact this is the second consecutive 300-point drop we've had in the Dow. The Dow is now down about 4% for the month of February which just ended today. This also means the Dow's record-breaking monthly winning streak has also come to an end. Remember, the Dow was up every month since Donald Trump was elected President including every single month in calendar year 2017. That is something that has never happened in the history of the stock market. There has always been at least one month during any year where the market went down - except for last year, when it went up every month and it was also up in January.Not so in February. Big decline. The Dow dropped better than 1000 points on the month. We'll see if this is the beginning of a much bigger downturn. In fact, it could easily be the beginning of a bear market.
Powell's Congressional Testimony the Catalyst
The supposed catalyst for the sell-off yesterday and today was Powell's testimony before Congress yesterday. He goes before the Senate tomorrow - he was in front of the House yesterday to give his talk about the economy. The Congressmen's questions are all self-serving. They are all talking for their own constituents and nobody really cares what Jerome Powell says - except the market. The stock market is looking and caring about what he says.
Powell is Hawkish
What Powell said that spooked the markets - he was optimistic! He was hawkish - he was bullish on the economy. First of all, what do we expect? He is on Team Trump, just as Ben Bernanke said he was a team player when he supported the economy under Bush. So the Republican narrative is that the economy is great - everything is booming and Powell is going to toe that same line. But of course, when Powell speaks, the markets listen, and the markets didn't like that upbeat tone. It made them think, oh, we're going to keep getting rate hikes. Maybe we're going to get 4 rate hikes instead of 3 - and the stock market sold off.
Will Powell Try to Fix What He Broke?
It rallied again a little this morning; we were up over 150 I think early in the day, but all of the decline happened in the last hour of trading, as is typically the case with some of these sell-offs. So it doesn't bode well for tomorrow. - Unless Jerome Powell tries to fix what he broke.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/1/2018 • 36 minutes, 14 seconds
So Much Debt, so Little Concern – Ep. 332
Remembering Irwin Schiff
Today would have been my father, Irwin Schiff's 90th birthday. If you're not familiar with my father's story, and I'm sure most of the people who listen to this podcast are familiar with my father but if you're not go to schiffbooks.com and pick up a copy of "The Federal Mafia," which was one of only 2 books banned by the Federal Government. We have a lot of books, "The Kingdom Moltz" a book that really shows off my father's sense of humor. It's beautifully illustrated by an artist named Andy Ice. I always liked that book as a kid. The book is very appropriate now, because it really explains inflation and where it comes from. My dad's old website, paynoincometax.com is still up, which has an archive of his old radio shows that he did weekly from Las Vegas. If you listen to my Dad, you'll know what I'm coming from. My dad talks a lot about economics.
Everything is Great!
But today, everything is great; Wall Street had a huge relief rally today; the Dow Jones was up almost 350 points, pretty much closing right on the highs of the day. The NASDAQ had an even better day, by percentage, up 120 points. The Dow was down on the week until today, but this big gain brought it up for the week.
Down Day in the Bond Market
I think the reason the market was so strong was we finally got a down day in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year treasury went back down. We closed at 2.871. Remember, we got to 2.95, we almost got to 3% and now we're back down to 2.871 on the 30 year. We had gotten up to 3.22 a couple of days ago. I think this took a lot of pressure off the stock market and people came in buying. "Everything is great; nothing to worry about!"
Commodities Strong Across the Board
The commodity market, though, was very strong across the board. Look at the surprise strength in oil. Everybody was talking about oil prices coming down - we're already back up to $63.50 and above. Almost back the the highs. Oil prices are going a lot higher. It's not just oil prices that are going up; commodities in general. I think we are in the early stages of another major boom in commodity prices. We had a big boom that ended in 2008 with the financial crisis. This is going to be a bigger boom, because it's not going to end in a financial crisis. This is going to be a dollar crisis, which is music to the ears of the commodity markets because they're all priced in dollars.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/24/2018 • 28 minutes, 20 seconds
Trump Is No Reagan & Powell Is No Volcker – Ep. 331
Dow Down Over 250 Points
Today the Dow Jones was down just over 250 points; we're back below 25,000. I think we were down better than 300 on the lows of the day, but we went out pretty low. The dollar was actually quite strong today; the dollar index had one of its better days of the year - +.61. We're back at 89.71. We had gotten back below 89, with an 88 handle. Gold had a bad day today after having had some pretty good days last week. The price of gold down almost $18 now; just below $1330. We got above $1350 last week, but we couldn't hold it. I think we really need to go above $1400 to clear away this overhead resistance.
Bond Market Continues Decline
The only trend that really continued was the bond market, continuing to go down. It's pretty much a daily affair. Yields rising off the highs of the day - we're back below 2.9. We got to 2.915 on the 10-year. We closed at 2.893. But I think it is the back-up in yields that continues to put downward pressure on gold and some upward pressure on the dollar. Now, in the scheme of things, it does not matter because the dollar has been falling all year, despite the fact that rates have been rising all year.
False Narrative That High Rates Are Good for the Dollar
But the narrative that higher rates is good for the dollar still permeates the markets. Traders still have not figured out that they've got this one wrong. Likewise, they still haven't figured out that rising inflation is good for gold, not bad for gold. In fact, I think the catalyst for today's rally in the dollar and the sell off in gold is the news that came out on inflation on Friday.
Bad News about Inflation
We got some really bad news that inflation is picking up. We got the data for import prices and export prices. Export prices were up by .8% but import prices, which were clearly more important, because we have to pay for our imports - our import prices shot up 1%. They were expecting a gain of .6%, so 80% higher than what was expected. Year over year, you're talking about a 3.6% increase in the price of our imports.
Import Prices Rising Faster Than Export Prices
Now this is bad for a couple of reasons: 1) If our import prices are rising faster than our export prices, what does that mean about our trade deficit? That means its going higher. But 2) It's inflation, or the cost of living, because we have to pay for these imports. If imports are 1% more expensive, month over month, that means it costs Americans more money to buy whatever is imported.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/21/2018 • 29 minutes, 18 seconds
Is the Powell Put in Play? Ep. 330
St. Valentine's Day Rout
I wouldn't really call what happened in the bond market and the U.S. dollar market as a St. Valentine's Day massacre, maybe it was a slaughter; even slaughter was too harsh a word. It was a rout. But this is nothing compared to what is going to come. The daughter is going to get slaughtered a lot more and the bond market is going to get slaughtered a lot more in the days ahead. Maybe not exactly tomorrow, but there will be days ahead that will be much worse than today. This is the tip of a huge iceberg.
Doing the Impossible
Before I get into the tail of the tape today, and all the horrific economic numbers that came out today, I want to take a step back and talk about President Trump's budget, which was released on Monday. Basically, the Republicans succeeded in doing something that you would have thought was impossible. They are making the Democrats look like the fiscally responsible party.
A Farce
First of all, there are some cuts in this budget that are never going to happen. There are a lot of assumptions that are saving money, like they assume a total repeal and replace of ObamaCare, which isn't going to happen. In fact, if it didn't happen when Republicans controlled Congress, how is it going to happen when the Democrats control Congress in 2019? So this is all farcical.
Assumptions...
But one of the biggest farces of the entire budget is the underlying economic assumptions. They're assuming that the very low unemployment rate gets even lower. But, the most farcical of all, is that they assume that the economy grows uninterrupted at an average of 3% for the next 10 years! This so-called expansion is already 9 years old. That makes it the second or third longest expansion in history, and if it continues this year, I think it will be the largest expansion in history. If it continued for another 10 years it would be almost twice as long as the next largest economic expansion in history. What are the odds that that is going to happen? But even if that happens, even if we get 10 years of 3% economic growth (we probably won't even get 1) but let's assume we get 10, even with that, the budget does not balance.
Not Even Pretending the Budget will Balance
This is the first time the Republicans are presenting a budget that, even in 10 years, does not balance. Now, think about this: When they were presenting budgets that had a pretense of balancing in 10 years, and they were way off the mark, can you imagine how much further off they will be now when they are not even pretending the budget is going to balance?
Trillion Dollar Deficits and no QE
In the first couple of years they are forecasting trillion dollar deficits. As I said on the podcast before, the last time we had trillion dollar deficits, the Fed was doing a trillion dollars a year in QE. Right now, the Fed is still posturing that it is not going to do any QE. In fact, it is posturing that it is going to do QT - it is going to shrink its balance sheet.
Big Political Problem for the Republicans
But here is going to be the big political problem: Since the Democrats are now the fiscally responsible party, they will be able to hang these deficits around the necks of the Republican candidates like an Albatross. I know a lot of people are thinking, "Wait a minute, Peter! Obama doubled the deficit & the national debt - there are all kinds of deficits under Obama, so how can the Democrats say that the Republicans are the big spenders and they are the fiscal Conservatives?
Inevitable Keynesian Logic
It is very easy. It is basic Keynes. They are going to say is when Obama ran deficits, they were necessary to get us out of the recession that Bush caused by cutting taxes on the rich, and the corporations. So they were a necessary economic stimulus to get out of the ditch that Bush drove us into. After all, Clinton, a Democrat,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/15/2018 • 40 minutes, 27 seconds
Republican Hypocrites Embrace Debt to Avert Shutdown – Ep. 329
A Change of Trend
Another volatile day of trading ended with the Dow gaining a little over 300 points - 330 points to be exact. The NASDAQ composite was up just shy of 100 points - 97.33 - and the S&P gained 38.5 points. But about 2 hours before the close, the Dow was down over 500. And then, in about 20 minutes, it rallied from down 500 to positive, and then at the close it had that 300-point rally. But it started the day up about 200 points, so between up 200, down 500, up 300… Again, we're continuing massive volatility which, as I said is indicative of a change of trend. We were so long in an uptrend with no volatility, now all of sudden we have this massive volatility.
"Just a Reversal"
Of course there are a lot of people jumping on this:"Oh, it's a reversal, it's a bottom, we rallied 800 points" Look, that's not how you make a bottom. 800 points is nothing. We had 2 thousand point drops, so I don't think the bottom is in. Is it possible that there will be a rally off of here? Of course, anything is possible, but I don't think it is probable. I think it is a higher probability that we are going to re-test that low. If this really is a correction, and not a bear market, I think the low that we put in earlier today is going to have to hold. It is going to have to have some kind of test.
Fundamentals Look Much More Like a Bear Market
But, again, looking at the fundamentals, this looks so much more like a bear market. In fact, when you listen to the talking heads on CNBC, they keep saying, "Relax, don't worry… this is a correction… the market is long overdue for a correction… we haven't had a correction in a long time…corrections are normal, and all that is true. But we also haven't had a bear market in a long time, and bear markets happen. Bear markets are normal. So how do they know that what we're having now is not the long-overdue bear market?
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/10/2018 • 30 minutes, 3 seconds
Deficits Don’t Matter – Until They Do – Ep. 328
Orlando Money Show: 20 Trillion and Beyond
I wasn't intending to do a podcast today; I'm in Orlando at the Money Show, I'm on a stock market panel. It's going to be fun: Louis Navellier, Mark Skousen, David Callaway and Chris Gaffney. My big talk tomorrow should be very interesting. The title is 20 Trillion and Beyond: What the Coming Debt Explosion Will Mean to Your Portfolio.
Dow Jones Closed Down 1,032 Points Today
Now, of course, it's already exploding, but I gave them that headline about a month ago because I already knew that the debt problem was percolating and that was going to be what was going to blow up everybody's portfolio. But when the Dow is down 1000 points twice in the same week, I have to come on and do a podcast. If you haven't heard the news, the Dow Jones closed down 1,032 points today. The low of the day. We closed below the intra-day low of Tuesday morning, when the Dow ended up 500.
Successful Test?
Now we're not back down to the lows we hit Monday night, in Asian trading. We'll probably be there by tonight. This market is looking ugly. That was a horrible close, we have to go lower. It's crazy: I was watching CNBC in my hotel room and some guy was on saying, "This might be a successful test if we can just close above Monday's lows!" Successful test? A successful test is when you get a huge bounce off the lows. Even if we had closed above it, that wouldn't have been a successful test - we could have crashed below it the following morning. But we couldn't even hold it. We closed on the lows.
Horrible 30-Year Bond Auction Today
And, you know what? Bond yields rose anyway. 1,000 points down in the Dow wasn't even enough to send bond prices higher and yields lower. The yields on the 10-year and the 30-year rising to new highs for the move. 30-year closed at 3.137. As I said, horrible, horrible 30-year bond auction today. Again, why anybody showed up is beyond me, but obviously not as many people showed up as they expected. Yields on the 10-year, another new high, 2.851 is where we closed. We got up to 2.884, and the reason we probably didn't close there is because of the 1,000 point drop in the Dow.
Government Spending is Behind the Carnage
But that big drop didn't make interest rates go down, it just kept them from goin up even more. But nothing is going to stop rates from rising. Especially if we get this Budget Deal tonight. Apparently, if they don't get the budget deal tonight, the Government is going to shut down. And if anybody thinks that the Dow is dropping because people are afraid the government is going to shut down, they don't know what they are talking about. The reason the market is dropping is because the government's not going to shut down. Government spending and borrowing is behind the carnage in the bond market, which is killing the stock market.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/9/2018 • 24 minutes, 44 seconds
Stocks and Bonds Do Dangerous Dance – Ep. 327
Volatility
The volatility is really continuing, in fact, today at one point this morning the Dow was up close to 400 points; ended up closing negative. It wasn't a big drop; about 20 points, but I think that's the biggest reversal of a gain to a loss in a little over 2 years. The broader market did worse. The S&P percentage-wise dropped about 13.5 points; the NASDAQ was down about 64 points.
Turnaround Tuesday
Of course the biggest reversal is the one we had yesterday. In fact, when I recorded my podcast on Monday I thought we'd have a big drop on Tuesday, but then I though we could also have a rally - Turnaround Tuesday. I thought we'd have a big drop in the morning and some kind of rally. That's exactly what we did, except we had an even bigger drop in the evening.
Dow Futures Loss
On Monday night, looking at how U.S. stock futures were trading in Asia, the Dow futures were down the equivalent of 1300 points. Now by the time New York markets opened, we had recouped almost all those losses. But if you look at the 5 trading days, from the high, the Dow Futures lost about 13% of their value. That just shows you how quickly the market can go down. The next time it could lose even more. That was a big move. Then we finished the day with a 500-point rally. So, lots of volatility.
Trend is Changing
I will tell you something: When you have a trend, and then all of a sudden you see lots of volatility, generally, that's a sign the trend is changing. The trend has been up, obviously stocks have been trending up for years. And they've been trending up with minimal volatility. All of a sudden you see massive volatility. Does that mean the trend is likely to continue? No. It's more likely a sign the trend has come to an end. Now you're getting all this volatility as people are jockeying around for position. People are buying the dips, now they're selling the rips.
Tail Wagging the Dog
I think the close today is a very weak close. We could start selling off tonight. I think the markets closed in a very weak way and there could be a lot more downside, especially if you look at what's happening in the bond market. That is the tail that is wagging the stock market dog. Yields on bonds are now back to the highs. In fact, the yield on the 30-year is now the highest it has been all year. Higher than it was before this little crash. The yield is 3.117 on the close.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/8/2018 • 43 minutes, 34 seconds
Fake Financial News Still Clueless About Monday’s Stock Market Mini Crash – Ep. 326
Stock Market Decline Predicted Last Friday
I have to warn you up front that I seem to have come down with something last night after the game, and I am having trouble talking today. I normally would not record, but I have to because on Friday's podcast I predicted the decline that we saw today.
I Told You So
Of course, we did not have a Black Monday like 1987; it wasn't a 20% decline. It was the biggest point decline in the history of the stock market by a large magnitude. We were down 1175 points. We were down 1600 points at the low. Although this is not the biggest point decline and in terms of percentage, it is in the top 20 (I think it was number 14). This is a major decline. We rarely see declines this big, and I'm pretty much going to say, yeah, I told you so on Friday.
Stocks Rising for All the Wrong Reasons
I have been seeing this coming for a while. I know a lot of Peter Schiff critics say, "he's a stopped clock, he says the stock market's going to crash every day, except I don't do that. Anybody who actually listens to what I say, realizes that I rarely call for the stock market to crash, let alone even go down. I have been saying the stock market was going to go up for all the wrong reasons during most of the time it was rising. I said it was a bubble as a result of cheap money.
Big Drop in Bond Market Signaled Crash
It wasn't until very recently that I began talking about a crash. In fact, on the way up, one of the reasons I thought the market wouldn't crash, was because I thought the Fed would save it. It would reverse course, and take back the idea that it would raise rates or shrink its balance sheet. But, recently, as it became obvious that the Fed was not giving up and the market was increasing its expectations of rate hikes and I saw a big drop in the bond market, (which I had been warning about for the last several weeks) I've been saying, "Hey wait a minute! This stock market's going to crash!"
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/6/2018 • 27 minutes, 7 seconds
Will Black Monday Come Early This Time? Ep. 325
666 Point Drop
Today the Dow finished off its worse week in 2 years with a 666 point drop. That is the third largest point drop in the history of the Dow. The last big drop that was larger happened during the 2008 financial crisis. Percentage-wise, though the 666-point drop today is only 2.5% so it's really not that big, as a historic decline.
3% Drop from All-Time Record High
It's large in a sense that we haven't had a one-day 2.5% decline in the Dow in quite some time. In fact, I'm not even sure when we last had a 3% correction. Now, that's what we had. the dow is now 3% below the all-time record high that it hit last week. Now, a 3% correction is pretty normal, except we haven't had one in a long time.
Is this Ominous?
The question is: is this the something of something more ominous or is this just a small correction? I think there's a lot of evidence that this is the start of something much bigger. Part of the evidence is that nobody is concerned! There's maximum complacency. Even the superstitious aren't concerned that the Dow fell exactly 666 points. People are so complacent that they're not even being superstitious.
1987 All Over Again
Casting that aside, think about this: 1987 was the year that we had a stock market crash. January was the best month for the U.S. stock market since 1987. The dollar just had its weakest January since 1987. So far, this year seems to have a lot in common with 1987. We know what happened in 1987: Black Monday. That didn't happen until October, but maybe this year it will come early. Maybe, next Monday. Now, obviously, the probability is not that we will have a crash on Monday, but it is a possibility. I would say the possibility is much higher than it has ever been, because of where we are, and what's going on.
Rates are Going Up
Also, the NASDAQ and the S&P were not down quite as much as the Dow, but they were both down about 2%. The catalyst for the sell-off was the continuation of the increase in long-term interest rates. The yield on the 10-year bond rose to 2.854%. That is the highest yield of the day, so bonds closed on the low of the day. On the 30-year bond, we closed at 30.97. There, the high of the day was 30.99 - almost 3.1%. I have been talking about this on this podcast - rates are going up, and they are going much, much higher. If you look at these charts, we've got a lot of air between where we are right now and the normal resistance.
Budget Deficits Going Up and Trade Deficits Going Up
Therein lies the complacency. Nobody is worried about the rise in interest rates. Nobody is thinking about 1987. It was rising interest rates that ultimately pricked that bubble. But why did rates rise? Because the budget deficits were going up and the trade deficits were going up. That's exactly what is happening now! Except they are bigger budget deficits and bigger trade deficits. And this is happening at a time when the United States is broke. Our massive debt is far greater than the one we had in 1987.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Janet Yellen Got Out of Dodge
As expected, earlier today, the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates; they left them unchanged. The next rate hike is likely to come when Powell takes the reins at the Fed. Janet Yellen got out of Dodge! This is the second Fed chairman to be able to pull this off. Bernanke inherited a disaster, and he got out of Dodge, and so did Janet Yellen.
Greenspan as Dr. Frankenstein, Fed Policy as Monster
I don't think Powell is going to be as fortunate as his two predecessors. In fact Alan Greenspan was on CNBC today talking about the bubble in the bond market, the bubble in the stock market, how we're coming to stagflation, how we don't have any productivity growth. I believe that Alan Greenspan knows exactly how bad this is. He is like the Dr. Frankenstein who created a monster, except neither Yellen nor Bernanke nor Powell even realize that it is a monster. I don't think any of them know enough about economics.
Passing the Baton Full of Dynamite
Alan Greenspan is an Austrian-schooled, Ayn Rand guy. He's a smart guy; he certainly knows more about economics than I do. Obviously he can see this. He created this thing, yet the Fed Chairs who succeeded him do not understand it. Greenspan understood all the chemicals and he made this bomb that he handed off and it's been moving like a baton (or maybe like a stick of dynamite!) from one Fed Chair to another. Yet only Alan Greenspan realizes that the baton is made of dynamite.
Keynesians are Blind
Greenspan's successors kept expanding the policy, putting more explosives in the baton because they believe in this Keynesian nonsense. Greenspan doesn't believe any of that! So they had no idea what they were dealing with. Like in the original Frankenstein movie - you got that blind man who could not see that Dr. Frankenstein's monster is actually a monster. Yellen, or Powell are blind to how the economics are working and can't see the policy for what it is.
Not Going to End Well
Greenspan sees it, but he can't just come right out say it; you have to read between the lines because he is still protecting himself and the credibility of the Federal Reserve so he is not going to start trashing the people who are running it. You can tell, though that he knows this is not going to end well.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/1/2018 • 35 minutes, 23 seconds
Do Rising Interest Rates Finally Matter? – Ep. 323
A Rare Down Day
The U.S. stock market finally had a rare down day today. The Dow Jones was down almost 180 points. We did have a little bit of a rally off the lows. NASDAQ closed down 39 points. But still, it's rare to see the U.S. stock market going down. Supposedly, the catalyst for the sell-off today was the increase in long-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates have been rising steadily all year, so the market hasn't cared about rising interest rates at all this year, so I don't know why today is any different. The yield on the 10-year bond moved above 2.7% This is not quite a 4-year high in yields; the high was 2.725%.
Why Buy Treasuries at All?
That's the 10-year. The yield on the 30-year is at 2.943. Why would anybody buy a 30-year treasury for 2.93%. You could just buy a 10-year for 2.7. Twenty extra years of interest rate and inflation risk? Why would somebody assume that for a 20 basis point in yield? To me, it doesn't make sense that anyone would buy any Treasury, regardless of the duration.
Why Hasn't the Yield Curve Already Blown Out?
But if you are going to buy a long-term Treasury, why on earth would you go for 30 years? Just buy a 10-year. The yield is almost the same. But if we get a big increase in interest rates, the collapse in the value of the 30-year is going to be much bigger than the 1o-year. In fact, that seems to be a pretty good trade for a spread trader. Buy the 1o-year and short the 30-year. That spread has got to widen. That extra 20 years of inflation risk and interest rate risk is going to come back to bite anybody who is buying a 30-year treasury. So it doesn't even make any sense to me why the yield curve hasn't already blown out. It's going to happen. It's only a matter of time.
If Anyone Cared, The Drop Would Have Bigger
I don't think the markets are worried about higher interest rates. The Dow is down 170 points. That's nothing. If anyone was actually worried about higher interest rates, we would have had a much bigger drop. Who knows why the market was down - that's the excuse, but it can't be rates, because this has been happening consistently and nobody has cared. If anybody cared, we would have had a much bigger drop in the stock market.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/30/2018 • 34 minutes, 6 seconds
Economic Alice in Wonderland – Ep. 322
Alice in Wonderland
I spent a lot of time today watching CNBC's coverage of the World Economic Forum in Davos. I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone, or Alice in Wonderland or something like that. Everybody is so optimistic. At least all the Americans who are interviewed. I put up on my Facebook an analyst from Morgan Stanley Asset Management. She's unquestionably bullish on every front. Everything is bullish - there's nothing at all to worry about. In fact, the only thing that she said that everybody says there's nothing to worry about. Things are so good, they're wondering, "What are we missing? Maybe we should be a little worried that nobody is worried.
There Are So Many Things to Worry About
The reality is that there are so many things to worry about. They're not worried about any of these things. I watched an interview - Donald Trump did an interview with Joe Kernen on CNBC. Joe Kernen is like a schoolgirl with a crush. He seems so enamored by Donald Trump. He's basically kissing his ass on anything he has to say. Everybody has gone insane. I talked about this on Alex Jones. Alex Jones is saying, "Everything is great under Trump! Obama never had an economy that was going at 3%".
Evidence of "Roaring Economy"
Obama never managed to achieve 3% growth - as if Donald Trump has! But everybody believes that the economy is growing rapidly. In Donald Trump's speech today - I'm not making this stuff up - this is what he said: "We're experiencing a roaring economy. After years of stagnation, we finally have strong GDP growth. Finally, after waiting all these years, the economy is booming, thanks to Trump.
2017 GDP not Roaring
Everybody is eating this nonsense up. Everybody believes it, except none of it is true. We actually got the GDP numbers out today - not that I believe all the numbers we get from the government - they are overstating the real GDP growth because they are understating how much inflation really is - but the media generally accepts these numbers. Early this morning we got the actually GDP numbers. The economy in Q4 grew at 2.6%! Then, if you average the entire year, because President Trump has been president for pretty much all of 2017 - the economy grew at 2.3%. That's it! My bet is they're going to revise Q4 lower, so it will probably be lower than 2.3%.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/26/2018 • 30 minutes, 14 seconds
Clueless Mnuchin Embraces Weak Dollar Policy – Ep. 321
Dollar Getting Hammered
Gold and oil are breaking out, the dollar is breaking down, bonds continue to break down, and no one cares! Nobody is worried. The Dow was up today, although it finished up closer to the lows it was up a lot more earlier in the day although the dollar was getting hammered before the stock market opened and they still bid it up, but the S&P, the NASDAQ and the Russel 2000 all finished in the red, but the losses weren't that big. It's based on the fact that nobody even understands what's going on - what it means.
Bass Ackwards
In fact, they actually got it bass ackwards. You actually have people who think that a weak dollar is good and that rising inflation is a sign of economic growth. So, there's nothing to worry about! First, let's look at what happened. Dollar index; that was, I'd say the star of the day - or not the star because it did horrible, do you wouldn't give the dollar a star. But it was down about 1 full percent. It closed at 89.25 on the dollar index. We cut through 90 like a hot knife through butter. I think the next stop is a moving average at around 85, and we could be there pretty quickly. We are headed lower quickly on the dollar.
Mnuchin: "A Weak Dollar is Good for America!"
In fact, one of the things that helped the dollar fall today (I think it would have fallen anyway) was Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's comments that he made to day over at Davos; he's trying to encourage foreigners to invest in America. So he said, "A weak dollar is good for America, it's good for business, we're open for business, so he said he welcomes the weak dollar. This is supposed to make foreign investors feel better about investing in America? You're telling foreign investors that if you invest in America, you're going to lose, because you're going to lose on the foreign exchange.
Anybody Who Invests in the U.S. Today Will See Losses
My clients know what that feels, because we were investing in foreign stocks during years when foreign currencies were falling against the dollar. So, on paper our accounts were going down. Anybody who invests in the U.S. today will see losses. The dollar is going to fall even more. So right now, the dollar is weak; the last thing you want to do is invest in the United States. You want to invest in markets where the currencies are strong.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/25/2018 • 30 minutes, 35 seconds
Unfortunately, the Federal Government is Open – Ep: 320
The Government is Back in Business
The government is officially re-opened! Apparently, the government shut down, maybe it was on Friday. Earlier today Congress voted to re-open it! The good news that the government is back in business sent the stock market to record highs. The Dow, the NASDAQ, the S&P all rallied on the good news.
When the Government Shuts Down, it gets Bigger
Of course, the good news was the government shutdown. Except, it's not really shut down. If they actually shut the government down, that would be great news. The bad news is that it's not shut down. It's open for business. If they really shut down government, people would like it. At least a lot of people. The problem is, in the past, when the government shuts down, normally government gets bigger during the shutdown.
The Problem is not Government Shutdown; It is Government Regulations
Let's say they close a National park. They have more government workers making sure nobody uses the National park because it's closed than they had when the park was open. So the whole thing is a farce. I remember reading an article one year, during the government shutdown, that there were businesses that needed permits, but the permit office was closed, so they couldn't get the permits they needed. The media covered the situation as, "See how bad it is when government is shut down, when people can't get their permits." Well, if government is shut down, you shouldn't need the permit. If government shut down, you can do what you want. You don't need a government permit. The problem was not the government shutdown, it was the government regulations.
All Federal Taxes Don't Count during the Shutdown
Let's say during government shutdown, "No one has to pay any taxes." All Federal taxed don't count during the shutdown. How many people would be anxious for the government to be open? So, a real government shutdown, where all taxes and regulations are suspended during the time of the shutdown would be great.
Government Business is Destructive Because Government Means Power
Government is no longer shut down; it is open for business and that means it is destructive business because government is power. I thought it was typical or funny - the minute the news came out that they had the votes to open the government, the dollar rallied and gold sold off. They weren't big moves. The way the lemmings react to this news is that they thought that the dollar was falling because of the government shutdown. The dollar going down had nothing to do with the government shutdown.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/23/2018 • 32 minutes, 12 seconds
Bonds & Dollar Down, Stocks Up – Ep. 319
January 19, 2018
Traders Still Ignoring Ominous Warning Signs
We closed the week with more gains on Wall Street as stock traders continue to ignore all the ominous warning signs that have been flashing. The S&P Composite and the NASDAQ both hitting new record highs today. The Dow, not a record high, but positive on the day, closing above 26,000 for the week for the first time ever.
Important Warning Signs in the Bond Market
But most importantly, what the market is ignoring is what is happening in the bond market. The bond market fell again; the yield on the 10-year rose. The high yield was 2.46, we closed at 2.639. These are the highest yields that we've had on the 10-year since July of 2014.
The stock market has gone up a lot since then, I think about a 45% increase in the S&P 500. Earnings are only up around 6%. So you had a massive increase in the stock market. And a lot of the justification for that valuation, because obviously, valuations have risen sharply, have been based on lower interest rates. Well, they're not lower anymore, they're back exactly were they were in July of 2014.
Take a Look at the 10-Year Treasury
But what's more ominous is not where they are, but where they are headed. That's the thing. These rates are still very low; 2.639. We're very close to breaking a key number. I think the bond market looks like it's going a lot lower. To me, this looks like it's it. So I think we're going to break through 3% on the 10-year relatively soon, maybe by next month. I think if we take out 3.75%, it's a quick move up to 4%. Now the last time we had a 4% yield on the 10-year was before the 2008 financial crisis. Basically, that was the yield that broke the camel's back.
Interest Rates vs Treasury Yields
Remember, the financial crisis was triggered by rising interest rates on the debt that had been accumulated in the prior years as a result of Alan Greenspan keeping interest rates at 1% for a year and a half. And then, slowly raising them back up over the course of another year and a half. So as the Fed was moving interest rates up at a measured pace, by the time they got rates back up to 5%, the yield on the 10-year was about 4%. That's about as high as it was able to go.
Bubble Precariously Balanced on Interest Rates
Now, you have to figure that today, given that we have so much more debt now than we had in 2008 that the breaking point for the markets is actually far below 4%. If 4% was enough to prick the bubble in '08, a much smaller pin would prick this more enormous bubble. If we could not withstand a 4% 10-year in 2008, what was the high in the stock market in 2008? we were the highs of today. The Dow was around 12,000. So if interest rates get back to where they were, how do you justify it at 25,000?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/20/2018 • 35 minutes, 51 seconds
Possible Top in Stocks and Breakdown in Bitcoin – Ep. 318
January 16, 2018
Buying Stocks with Both Hands
When I recorded my podcast on Friday, just looking at the technical action in the dollar and I was getting nervous that maybe we could have been setting ourselves up for some kind of holiday surprise; a big drop over the 3-day weekend that could have led to some real fireworks on Tuesday; and when the market started, everybody ignored the new low in the dollar and they were buying stocks with both hands, out of the gate.
The Market Could Not Hold the Gain
The Dow gapped up, and it kept going up; I think it opened up almost 200 points and the was up almost 280 points in the first half hour of trading. We went above 26,000. It was just 12 days ago we were at 25,000. That was the fastest 1,000 point move in the history of the Dow. Of course, 1,000 points doesn't mean as much when you're going from 25,000 to 26,000 as when we went from 1,000 to 2,000. Or even from 10,000 to 11,000, but still, it was very quick. In fact, if you look at the trading days, it was just 6 days, because one of those days was Martin Luther King Day, and we didn't trade. So in 6 trading days, the Dow rallied 1,000 points. Well you know what? It couldn't hold the gain.
Almost a 400-Point Swing
The Dow actually sold off, and at the low of the day it was down 100 pts, so almost a 400-point swing. We closed negative on the day. The Dow was actually the best-performing index. It was only down about 10 points; percentage-wise it was barely down. But the NASDAQ was down .5% and the S&P 500 was down .25%. So we'll see if we get some followthrough tomorrow, to this potential reversal. It wasn't a massive reversal (we didn't close way down, but we did close down).
Technicals are Looking Worse and Worse
Meanwhile, the dollar did close out on another new low. We didn't take out the overnight lows of Martin Luther King Day, when we were closed, but we closed very near the lows. The dollar index went off at 90.45; I think the low over the holiday weekend was 90.28. The dollar then started to gain back some of it losses early this morning and it surrendered them by the end of the day. But the technicals are just looking worse and worse for the dollar
Fed Box: Interest Rates, Inflation, Consumer Prices
This so far has not bothered the stock market crowd, because all they can see are positives. But if everything were positive, the dollar would be going up. People still don't understand what this is going to do to interest rates, inflation, consumer prices, and the box this puts the Fed in. How the Fed is damned if it does and damned if it doesn't. If it raises rates to put a floor under the dollar and a lid on inflation, then everything collapsed - we have a worse financial crisis than 2008 and the market implodes - or, the Fed doesn't do that because it's afraid of that and we get something worse. We get a currency crisis. We get a complete dollar implosion. We get hyperinflation.
A Goldilocks Moment
So we have probably never been this close to something this bad. Remember, think back to the days leading up to the 2008 Financial Crisis. Other than me, was anybody warning about anything? No, it was Goldilocks! Everything was perfect. It's even better now. Back then, they at least let me on television to give the other side. Now, they think, what's the point? Everything is so great, we don't even want anybody to be warning about the possibility of a problem because - "There is no possibility!".
Running Up the Deficits
What has happened since Trump has been elected. The market's up 40% since we elected Donald Trump. What has he done? Nothing. Has government been reduced? No! We haven't gotten rid of any agencies, we haven't gotten rid of any departments. All we did is cut taxes and the tax cuts have barely gone into effect yet. How did we finance the tax cuts? Running up the deficit.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/17/2018 • 28 minutes, 3 seconds
Everything That Can Go Wrong, Will – Ep. 317
January 12, 2018
Obvious Negative Factors Hiding in Plain Sight
This Friday ahead of the three-day holiday weekend, all three markets are ignoring the ominous warning signs that are building by the day. They're registering new highs, the Dow up better than 200 points, 228, closing over 25,800; S&P, NASDAQ both hitting record highs today. To me, this is very reminiscent of 1987, in that the stock market is rising despite the fact that there are very obvious negative factors that are building and are hiding in plain sight.
CPI Number is About to Go Up
The CPI came out today and the headline number was in line, +.1%. Year over year, though that's still a 2.1% increase in headline CPI. But, unless you're asleep, you have to realize that the number is about to go up. Look at what is happening in commodity prices. Oil prices are up big today, over $64/barrel. This is the highest oil prices have closed since November of 2014. And, if you go 4 months earlier than that, we were over $100. So, if we re-trace that move, we could actually hit $80-$100 this year. This is an ominous sign for inflation and it's also going to be a big problem for the U.S. economy. That means that headline number is going up.
Poor Trade: Dump Gold on Higher Inflation Numbers
Now the Core CPI, which everybody seems to look at, year over year, that one's only up .8%. That's not going to last either. We're going to be over 2% on the Core, I think, in a couple of months. The number was up .3 for the most recent month - they were looking for +.2. In fact - this is funny - right before the number came out, gold was up about $10 and the dollar index was down about .50. Then the CPI number comes out, and the traders immediately see this inflation number that is higher than expected on the Core. What is their initial reaction? They dump gold, gold lost half its gains, and they bought the dollar. The dollar gained about 2/5 of its losses.
Why Aren't Higher Rates Bad for the Stock Market?
Why is that? Why would people think higher inflation is bad for gold and good for the dollar? The reason is, they think, "Oh, higher inflation? The Fed is going to raise rates." So what? The Fed has been raising rates - we all know the Fed is going to raise rates. But if higher rates are bad for gold, why aren't they bad for the stock market? The stock market should be affected by higher interest rates - but the market somehow thinks higher interest rates will be bad for gold.
Gift from the Traders
The reality is, higher inflation is great for gold. That's why people buy gold. It's a hedge against inflation. So the more inflation, the more demand there is for gold. The opposite of the dollar: by definition high inflation means the dollar is losing purchasing power. So, if the dollar is losing purchasing power, that is bad for the dollar. And by the end of the day, that's exactly what happened. Gold finished the day up about $16. So if you bought that ridiculous move, a gift from the traders, you had a nice profit.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/13/2018 • 38 minutes, 11 seconds
China Rings a Bell – Ep. 316
January 10, 2018
Bells are Ringing but Nobody is Listening
They always say that nobody rings a bell at the top. And that saying relates to the stock market, investors; there's never a clear warning sign, supposedly, of when to get out. My experience is actually the opposite. I think many bells ring, not necessarily at the very top, but certainly close to it, it's just that they're ignored; or if they are heard, they are rationalized away.
China says No to More U.S. Treasuries
Another such bell was rung overnight. We had a Bloomberg report this morning coming out of China that the Chinese government is going to stop buying U.S. Treasuries. This is potentially an ominous sign because a) China is the largest buyer and owner of U.S. Treasuries in the world, but, b) we just cut taxes! We cut taxes and not spending, so we are financing these tax cuts by borrowing more money, bu running bigger deficits, by selling more bonds.
Who is Left to Buy?
And if the largest buyer and owner of those bonds, is saying "No mas!", well that is a big problem. Who is going to step up to replace the Chinese? Also, if the Chinese aren't going to buy, who else is not going to buy? Why would anyone want to buy U.S. Treasuries? Even if you did not prescribe to the gloom & doom type perspective that I do, if you're just a typical investor looking at historic bond prices, Why would you want to buy U.S. Treasuries now? Aren't there other assets you'd rather own than extremely low-yielding U.S. Treasuries?
Will China Sell?
So if the Chinese don't want to buy, it stands to reason a lot of other people don't want to buy either, especially if they know the Chinese are not buying, does that mean they're selling? If they don't think Treasuries are worth buying, are they worth owning? You would think if they don't want to buy any more, they might want to start selling. In fact, when Wall Street puts a hold on something, that means sell, right? So, if China is putting a hold on U.S. Treasuries, that means, "Get the Hell out of U.S. Treasuries."
China and the Fed Letting Treasuries Mature
Another thing is that the Chinese don't have to necessarily sell their Treasuries. They can just let them mature. After that is what the Federal Reserve is claiming it is going to do. It is going to shrink its balance sheet (in theory) by not rolling over maturing securities. The Chinese government will do the same thing. Where is the U.S. Treasury going to get the money to redeem the securities? They can't. That is the problem.
Financial Networks Silent on the Problem
It is amazing how few people are worried about a problem so potentially ominous as this one. Remember, nobody was worried about the 2008 Financial Crisis. You could turn on any financial network and nobody was worried - I was the only guy. To the extent that I said anything about what was going to happen, I got laughed at.
Bigger Crisis Ahead
Now, you don't even have that. I remember when some networks were criticized after the fact about the lack of coverage of the warning signs in '06, and '07 and '08, networks would point to the fact that they had me on. The next time, they won't be able to say that because they won't have me on anymore. They don't have anyone on who is pointing out what should be obvious to all their other guests. All the other guests are missing an even bigger crisis than they missed before.
It's All About Debt
What was the Financial Crisis about? It was about too much debt. People took out too much debt. We have even more debt now. Back then, the big problem was rising interest rates. The Housing Crisis started the Financial Crisis. I pointed this out for years. The problem was teaser rates. People were buying homes that they really couldn't afford, but they could afford to make payments on the introductory teaser rates. The first couple of years,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/11/2018 • 33 minutes, 28 seconds
2017 GDP Growth Looks like Obama 2.0 – Ep. 315
January 8, 2017
Atlanta Fed's Q4 2017 GDP Estimate at Record Low
The Atlanta Fed did downwardly revise its estimate of Q4 GDP as a result of the numbers that were released on Friday. The downward revision took their estimate from 3.2% down to 2.7%. 2.7% is the lowest the estimate has been since they began estimating 2017 Q4. In fact, earlier on, in October or November the Atlanta Fed was up to 4.5% for their 2017 GDP. So as the U.S. stock market was rising to an all-time record high the Atlanta Fed was downwardly revising its forecast for Q4 of 2017 to its record low.
Déja Vu All Over Again
Let's assume that the Atlanta Fed is accurate at 2.7%, maybe they're still being too optimistic, but let's say they hit the nail on the head and we get 2.6%. Then the entire year of 2017 would see about 2.5% GDP growth. Now, how does that compare to Obama?
Half of Obama's Second Term Beats Trump's Economic Numbers
Everybody is talking as if the economy is rip-roaring now; it's so much better not under Trump than it was under Obama's second term. I'd rather look at the second term because a) it's closer in time to where we are right now, and b) his first term includes the Great Recession that he inherited. So if you look at Obama's second term, GDP growth averaged 2.2% for the entire 4 years. If that's the case, 2.5% is a little bit better, but if you take 2 of those years, 2014 and 2015, GDP grew by more than 2.5%. I think we were at 2.56 and 2.9%. In other words, half of Obama's years as President beat the first year of Trump as far as GDP.
Economic Growth Hasn't Happened
So to me, 2017 just looks like another year of Obama's presidency. Nothing's really different. 2.5% fits in nicely with Obama's economic numbers. Everybody is talking about all this great economic growth that's taking place - it hasn't happened!
Market Soaring in Spite of Lukewarm GDP
Granted, there are people saying, we haven't really had the tax cuts yet; the tax cuts don't take effect until next year. That hasn't stopped the stock market from soaring - obviously they are looking forward. Maybe the economy has looked forward. Maybe there has been an increase in investment in anticipation of these cuts. Maybe we've gotten a lot of the benefit and despite that we're still only at 2.5%.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/9/2018 • 37 minutes, 46 seconds
Twin Deficits May Doom Stock Market Boom
Schiffreport: January 5, 2018
Trump: We Will Win on Trade
Earlier this morning the government released the December Nonfarm payrolls report, AKA the Jobs Number. But rather than start with that, I want to talk about another number that was released at the exact same time. It unfortunately gets very little attention in the media, in fact nobody has really paid attention to this number since the late 1980's - early 1990's. Of course, I am talking about the trade deficit. In fact when Donald Trump ran for office, he actually made the trade deficit an issue in his campaign, which was quite rare. In fact, Donald Trump said that we were losing on trade and he was correct. He promised that if he was elected, we would be winning on trade.
Biggest Trade Deficit in almost Six Years
Well we just got the number for November, and it was the biggest trade deficit in almost 6 years. $50.5 billion. What's more important than that number, look beneath the surface of the number that's bad and it gets a lot worse. If you take out oil, and America is still a net importer of oil - but if you just focus on the rest of the trade deficit, it was an all time high.
Oil Headed Higher
The biggest monthly trade deficit ever. We finally broke the record that I believe was set when Bush was President. But think about this: oil prices were pretty low in 2017. We just started to rise, in fact we closed the year above $60/barrel for the first time in 4 years. So imagine how much higher these trade deficits are going to be if the price of oil returns to $80-$100, which it was earlier in the year when it dropped below $60/barrel. In fact, I think that's exactly where it's headed.
All-Time Record Low against the Yuan
Also, look at what's happening with the dollar. The dollar fell last year for the first time in 5 years. It was he largest annual decline in 14 years, measured against the dollar index. But look at the Chinese yuan. the dollar fell by the most against the yuan in 9 years. In fact, I think we're going to hit an all-time record low for the dollar against that currency next year.
Upward Pressure on an Already Rising U.S. Trade Deficit
If you remember, when the year began, all of the strategists on Wall Street were universally bullish on the dollar and bearish on everything including the Renminbi. A lot of people were shorting the Chinese currency. In fact, they were as bullish on the dollar back then as they are on the U.S. stock market right now. Of course, the markets did the opposite of what they expected. If oil prices keep rising, and the dollar keeps falling, that is going to put even more upward pressure on an already rising U.S. Trade Deficit.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/6/2018 • 25 minutes, 54 seconds
Those Expecting Low Inflation Are in for a Surprise – Ep. 314
Market Ignoring Economic Realities
All three of three of the U.S. stock market indexes are ringing in the New Year with new record highs. The market was up on the first trading day of the year; up again today. NASDAQ composite is the star, 7065 today up another .84% - a new record high. The same thing with the S&P and the Dow. The Dow is now almost at 25,000; it closed at 24,922. Of course, everybody is ignoring, though, the economic reality.
What Do Oil Price Increases Imply for the Economy?
Look at the price of oil, up again today - 61.77 is the close, up 1.40 - we were up yesterday. This is the highest oil has closed in over 2 years. If we get above 62.75 that would be the highest close since December of 2014. It was all between July and December of 2014 that oil prices collapsed from above $100/barrel to below $40. I think this year we have clear sailing to $80 - $100 oil this year. Nobody is talking about what this implies for the U.S economy. This is a gigantic tax hike for consumers. Doubling the price of oil over a 2-year period is going to have a major impact on the cost of everything.
Watch Commodities Prices
It's not just energy costs. Commodities in general are strong. Gold was up $15 on the first trading day of the year; we were down about $4-5 today, getting back some of the gains, so gold is off to a good start. Some of the gold stocks were very strong yesterday. Across the board, the resource sector is going up. In fact the ironic thing is that we got the release of the FOMC minutes today and as soon as the minutes came out, gold actually sold off, and clawed its way back to down a little bit on the day.
Fed Expectations of Low Inflation
If you look at those minutes, the only concerns that the FOMC minutes expressed about inflation was that it was still too low. They are worried that inflation expectations are still too low, that the public, or investors still don't expect enough inflation, which shows you how clueless the public is. If they don't think there is going to be inflation, they're wrong. Those expectations are totally wrong.
Hitting 2% Inflation Out of the Park
People are ignoring what is going on in the currency markets, the commodities markets, the bond markets. All of these markets are flashing inflation, according to the way you measure it: Consumer prices producer prices, they're all going to be going up, and the Fed, is still worried that they are not going to be going up fast enough, that they're not going to hit their 2% goal. They are going to hit that out of the park. They are going to be looking at 2% in the distant rear view mirror.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/4/2018 • 34 minutes, 57 seconds
Investors Whistle past the Mother of All Graveyards – Ep. 313
2017 Optimism
This is my final podcast for 2017. I just watched the U.S. Stock Market ring the closing bell for the final time in 2017. Everybody is excited; everybody is optimistic. I spent most of the day watching the financial coverage, mostly on CNBC to see the attitude and the types of coverage the market has received.
The Dow Gained 5,000 Points in a Single Year
Of course this is a record year in the stock market; an all-time record high in the Dow. I think this is the first year that the Dow has ever gained 5,000 points in a single year, in fact the Dow was up every month of 2017 - that's never happened before in history. I think we've gone 14 consecutive months without a decline. Not only were we up every month, but 2017 represented the year ever of the lowest stock market volatility. So as the market was going up, it barely ever went down. So no one was nervous.
Unprecedented Rise Occurs at the End
To me, this type of unprecedented rise does not happen at the beginning of something. It happens at the end. Anybody who believes that 2018 is going to be more of the same is in for a rude awakening. I think the final minutes of the trading day set the tone for next year. Even though the markets were up every month of this year, they were not up in the final week. The Dow and the S&P were both down this week. The entire decline for the week happened today, actually in the last 10 or 15 minutes. The Dow was down about 30 going into the last 15 minutes and it ended up -118. The Dow was never really positive today, same with the S&P.
Last Year Optimism was all about the Dollar
The NASDAQ was the biggest gainer of the year with well over a 30% gain. The Dow up about 25%, the S&P up about 19%, so certainly a big year, but to me, this is the end of this big bull market. The action in the final minutes may be an indication of what is to come. I have not seen this much universal optimism on an asset since last year at this time with respect to the U.S. dollar. Everybody was bullish on the dollar. In fact, the big short was the Chinese Yuan. All these big hedge funds were shorting the yuan - it's going to collapse. What was I saying a year ago? I said these trades were going to blow up. anybody shorting the yuan was going to lose money.
Dollar Index Down Almost 10% this Year
What has happened to the dollar this year? The dollar index is down almost 10% for the year. This is the first annual decline for the dollar since 2012, so it is the first drop in 5 years, but it is the biggest drop in 13 years. The last time the dollar was down more than this was 2003. What happened in 2003? The dollar fell in 2003-4-5-6-7 and 2008. It didn't stop falling until August of 2008 and the only reason it stopped falling is because it was saved by the financial crisis.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/30/2017 • 34 minutes, 42 seconds
Republicans Take Complete Ownership of the Bubble – Ep. 312
Trump's Economy
Today President Trump signed into law the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The biggest problem that the President will have with these tax cuts is that he now owns the economy. That is going to be a big problem, because this is now Trump's economy. This is now the Republican economy.
It's All Bullish
Now, Trump now already owns the stock market, and that has served him well so far this year. But you know what? The stock market could be getting ready to enter a big bear market. I've never seen so much bullishness, so much unfettered optimism on the market in my life. Not only on the market, on the economy - it's a no-brainer! Guest after guest on CNBC, "There's no way the market is not going to continue to go up!" "The only question is, how much higher is it going to go?" One bull after another - nobody is bearish. The networks are not even willing to allow my point of view to be expressed on the air, in spite of the fact that I was good for their ratings. I don't think CNBC wants an investment professional to come on and be bearish. To talk about the problems that underlie the economy, to talk about problems with the stock market, it's all bullish.
Trump Will Own the Bear Market, Too
This crazy optimism; everything is great, nothing can go wrong, oh yeah? How about inflation pushes up bond yields. How about corporations end up having to spend more on debt service payments, some of which is no longer deductible. How about inflation causing an increase in raw material costs? How about the consumer being so strapped with rising prices, no savings and record debt, that earnings go down? There are so many things that can go wrong when you have an overpriced stock market where everybody is in, and there is no money on the sidelines. So if we go into a bear market, Trump owns it.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/23/2017 • 37 minutes, 58 seconds
Is It Time to Sell the Fake News on Tax Reform? – Ep. 311
Calling Tax Cuts Reform is Fake News
Earlier today the House of Representatives passed the Tax Cut Bill. Of course, the Media keeps referring to it as "Tax Reform". That's fake news, for you, calling these tax cuts reform is a perfect example of fake news. Donald Trump is not going to complain about this fake news. When the fake news works in his favor, when he prefers the fake news to the real news, he's going to be quiet about it. It's only when he doesn't like the fake news that he calls the media out.
Loopholes will Reduce Taxes from 39.6% to 29.6%
This has nothing to do with reform. There are definitely tax cuts in this bill. In fact, there are substantial tax cuts. The tax cuts are a lot deeper than what people are saying, because the real reduction in the top rate is not from 39.6% to 37%, it's from 39.6% to 29.6%. It's a much bigger reduction because of the ability of so many people who are now paying 39.6% to use the loopholes to reduce their tax to 29.6%. Now, of course, the top rates are actually higher than that, because no one talks about the 3.8% Medicare and Obamacare taxes that are not repealed. The mandate, the penalty for not buying insurance is repealed, but the taxes to fund Medicare and Obamacare, they're still there. So the marginal rates are higher than the media is talking about. The reductions, however are actually much bigger for the top end.
No One Gets Government Relief
Normally, I'm all in favor of lowering the top end. I would just like to do it in a fair and honest way, not through gimmicks and loopholes. But yes, I want to lower the top rate of tax, but I also want to make government smaller. I want to reduce government spending so we no longer need all that tax revenue. I have said over and over again, that this bill will provide some people with tax relief, but no people with government relief.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/20/2017 • 29 minutes, 30 seconds
Swamp 2, People 0 – Ep. 310
Everybody Joins the Party
All 3 of the major U.S stock indexes closed out the week at new record highs as it became apparent that the new tax cut deal was pretty much done. Marco Rubio, who had been a hold-out, caved and even Corker, the one Republican who was going to vote against the bill becase it was going to increase the deficit, decided to join the party as well. He's now a yes, so the bill is going to pass.
Plan Riddled with Loopholes
We didn't get the compromise details until later Friday afternoon so I am recording this podcast Saturday morning. The new top rate: 37%, bottom rate: 10%. But of course, that 37% rate is probably not going to be paid by nearly as many people as the government thinks, because this plan is riddled with loopholes. In fact, I believe, if this plan passes, we will have a tax code that is more game-able where more people are doing more things to rig the system or exploit the loopholes - not that there's anything wrong with that - that's every American is going to do. No American is under obligation to pay more taxes than what is owed. And to the extent that you can re-arrange your affairs, such that you pay the lowest possible tax, that's what everybody is going to do.
Reduced Deficit Projections is Nonsense
And that is why the Republican projections that this is going to add just $1.5 trillion to the deficit over next 10 years are a bunch of nonsense. I'm sure that it will add more than twice as much over the next 10 years above how much the deficit is going to grow anyway during those 10 years. Now, the Republicans try to claim that even though on paper this bill will add $1.5 trillion to the deficit, it won't really be that big, because these tax cuts are going to create all this extra economic growth, which will result in additional tax revenue. So if you factor in that additional revenue, some kind of dynamic scoring, then the impact will not be as large. That is all a bunch of nonsense.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/16/2017 • 35 minutes, 30 seconds
Yellen Proclaims It’s Different This Time – Ep. 309
Expected Rate Hike
Today the Federal Reserve did exactly what everybody expected them to do, they once again raised interest rates by just one quarter of one percent. This is the third rate hike of the year; this is the fourth rate hike since Donald Trump was elected President and the fifth time the Fed has raised rates since the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed raised rates only once from Obama's election to Trump's election eight years later.
Extraordinary Amount of Excess Stimulus
We now are at 1.25% on the low end to 1.5%. So if you take the midpoint there, 1.35%; we're barely above 1%. Despite five rate hikes over the course of more than 2 years. Remember the first rate hike was in December 2015, so it has been exactly two years. It has taken the Federal Reserve two years to move the rate from zero to 1.35%. This is an extraordinary amount of excess stimulus. To say that the Fed has been successful in normalizing rates is complete nonsense. Two years ago, when the Fed raised rates for the first time, nobody in the mainstream believed that two years later, we would still be this low.
FOMC Press Conference
The most interesting part of the Fed's announcement is always the press conference that follows. The most interesting thing about is, whenever Yellen was asked about inflation; whenever she opined about inflation and what the Fed's concerns might be, the only concern that she ever expresses is that inflation may stay too low. In fact, that's the only question she gets about inflation. Nobody asks her, "What if inflation is higher than you think?" It's always, "What if it doesn't get to 2%?" Even though, of course it's already well above 2%, but everybody wants to pretend it's not, the questions are;"What if it takes longer to get to 2%? Are you concerned it might not get to 2%>
What Happens if Interest Rates go Too High?
And the answers are, "Well, we think it will get back there, but yes, we recognize it's a risk that maybe it won't." It never dawns on anybody to actually consider the real risk. The real risk is not that inflation stays below 2% (that's the ideal situation for the Fed). The real risk for the Fed is that inflation goes to 3% or 4%, but that possibility isn't even discussed. I know why, because they can't deal with that. I wish somebody would ask Yellen, "What is your plan, if inflation surprises you by spiking up? what if it jumps up to 3 or 4%?" What is she going to say? We're going to slam on the brakes? We're going to jack interest rates way up? What's going to happen to the stock market? What's going to happen to the bond market? What's going to happen to the economy?
Does Elevated Asset Prices Concern the Fed?
In fact Steve Liesman asked her a question about the stock market; about how the stock market is going up every day and he asked her: "Are you worried about this? Does these elevated asset prices concern the Fed?" She told him, no, the Fed's not worried at all. Not only do we not see any flashing red lights, we don't even see any flashing orange lights. There's nothing to worry about. She specifically said that, this is very different than it was last time.
Yellen: Nothing to Worry About the Debt
Yellen said that last time when we had an elevated stock market or real estate market, it was because we had too much credit, we had too much debt, but that we don't have that today. Is she kidding me? We actually have more debt! This is a bigger bubble that has been fueled by even more cheep money. The Fed is force-feeding cheap money into the economy; interest rates now are 1.3%; we've been going on a borrowing binge - corporations are levered up, they've been buying back stock, consumer debt is at all time high, auto debt, student debt, government debt is exploding, the national debt is twice as big as it was when we had the 2008 financial crisis, and Yellen is saying that there is nothing to worry...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/14/2017 • 36 minutes, 41 seconds
CNBC Becomes Crypto News BitCoin – Ep. 308
Bitcoin Week
I'm going to devote today's podcast to bitcoin; I might as well just talk about bitcoin because that's all anybody else is talking about. On CNBC that's pretty much all they are talking about; they said it is "BitCoin Week". It sure sounds like it. I think they should just rename the network: Crypto News BitCoin Network. I would be a good guest on that network because I know either side.
Swallowing Hype Hook, Line and Sinker
But just like in the dot com bubble in the 1990's and the housing bubble in 2007, they are swallowing the hype hook line and sinker. they drank all the Kool Aid. When they look back at those manias, they like to laugh, but they did not laugh at them back then - not at all. The only people they laughed at were people like David Tice, he would come on and they would laugh at him just like they laughed at me when I talked about the bubble leading up to the Financial Crisis. Nobody at CNBC had any idea that there was a dot com bubble. All they did was laugh at people who pointed it out.
Even Less Legitimacy
Same thing is going on now, although they do refer to the bubble. But to me, this bubble is the most irrational of any of the bubbles I've seen. I there is a less legitimate case for BitCoin than any of the dot com stocks that went to zero, or buying sub-prime mortgages.
Total Market Cap: $460,355,182,968
But let me talk a little bit about the whole origin of this thing, in case you don't know. When Bitcoin first came about, it was the only crypto currency out there. Now there are over 1300 crypto currencies. The market cap is over $450 trillion. Bitcoin is trading today at over 17,000. That's a new record high on bitstamp.net. That did not take out the $19,000 record set on coinbase.com last week. We're up about 15-20% today. Futures trading debuted on Sunday night and Saturday, in advance of that, we had a pretty decent sell-off. Bitcoin sold off to about $13,000 and then it skyrocketed, it turned around on Sunday night and continued going up on Monday.
Speculative Asset
But in the beginning, the whole idea behind Bitcoin was that it was going to be money - a digital currency whose advantage was that it could be used anywhere in the world, anonymously, inexpensively and quickly. I loved that aspect of Bitcoin. But what I did not like is that it had no backing. It has no real value, so it never could actually be money. Now, as the value has skyrocketed, it is impractical to actually spend, and people are using it as a "store of value". But it has no intrinsic value. It is just a speculative asset.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/12/2017 • 33 minutes, 43 seconds
Trump Continues What He Once Called the Biggest Hoax in American Politics – Ep. 307
A Nonfarm Payroll Beat
Today the labor department released the November jobs report - Nonfarm Payroll - of course Wall Street always highly anticipates this number; all the politicians, Donald Trump was ready to tweet as soon as the data was released. The expectation was for 190,000 jobs and we beat, with 228,000 jobs.
An Even Bigger Hoax
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, which prompted President Trump to tweet, "The unemployment rate remains at a 17-year low of 4.1%. Now remember, when Trump is running for office he called 5% unemployment "The biggest hoax in American history", claiming that the rate was really 30, 40, 50%. Well if 5% was the biggest hoax in American history, what's 4.1?%? It's an even bigger hoax.
Disappointing Numbers
So THIS is the biggest hoax in American history, except that the difference is now Trump is the purveyor of that hoax. He is no longer calling it out, he is now participating in the same hoax that he criticized in order to get elected. The numbers that missed were the average hourly earnings, which, again, everybody keeps talking about how earnings are going to go up; they were looking for a .3% increase in average hourly earnings following flat earnings the previous month. Not only did they not get .3%, they got +.2%, but they revised last month's 0% to -.1%. So really, very disappointing numbers on the wages.
Labor Force Participation
Labor Force Participation rate held steady at 62.7%; that's near the lowest it has been in this cycle. And again, if you look at where the jobs were, we did manage to create 31,000 manufacturing jobs. We have had a boost in manufacturing jobs, despite the fact that we are not seeing it in the trade balance, because we have the worst trade deficit in five years, so I don't really know what everybody's manufacturing, if we're not exporting it, or if it is not reducing our imports.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/9/2017 • 40 minutes, 16 seconds
Another Trump Flip Flop – Ep. 306
Trade Deficit Moving Higher as Economy Slows Down
Yesterday we got the release of the October monthly Trade Deficit and we got a trade deficit of $48.7 billion dollars. That was a little bit North of the $47.4 billion expected in the consensus forecast. In fact, the prior month, which was $43.5 billion was revised upwards to $44.9 billion. The larger number did cause the Atlanta Fed to shave down its estimates for Q4 GDP from 3.5% to 3.2%; my guess is that they will be revising it lower. Most of the numbers I have been seeing show the economy slowing down, at least measured by the GDP.
Candidate Trump Promised Lower Trade Deficit While Calling Stock Market "A Bubble"
What's significant about this trade deficit it is the largest trade deficit in 5 years, and it is the biggest trade deficit in the Trump Presidency. If you remember, candidate Trump made the trade deficit a big part of his campaign. He wanted to lower it. He said the trade deficit was too big, and the fact that it had been allowed to get so big; all these countries were taking advantage of us; and he was going to fix it! He was going to "Make America Great Again" in part, by getting rid of these trade deficits. So we were going to start operating at a profit again. He's not talking about trade deficits anymore. Does he want to accept responsibility for the increasing trade deficit, just as he claims credit for the rising stock market?
Trump Now Takes Credit for the Stock Market but not the Trade Deficit
When Trump was a candidate, he never promised, "Vote for me and I'll make the stock market go up!". He said the stock market was a bubble. Part of the problem was that the stock market was the only thing going up. The economy was actually getting worse, despite the fact that we had a stock market bubble. So a higher stock market was not part of his stump speech, yet that's all he talks about now is how high the stock market is.
Trade Deficit is Not Shrinking
What was part of his stump speech was shrinking the trade deficit. Well the trade deficit is not shrinking. It's growing! In fact, I believe that the trade deficit is going to end up hitting an all-time record high during the Trump Presidency. So that will be a complete failure. He campaigned on a lower deficit and we're going to get a much bigger deficit.
Dollar Down
And of course, the trade deficit is growing even as the dollar is down. The dollar has fallen by about 8 or 9% this year. Now, most economists tell you that if the dollar goes down, that will be good for trade, right? It will be good for our exports, we will import less - none of that happened. What actually happens when the dollar goes down, it simply makes our imports more expensive. So our trade deficit goes up. It's not like we can just buy domestically produced goods instead of foreign-produced goods because we don't produce the goods. We have to import them and we just have to pay more to do it, and the trade deficit goes higher.
Bush All Over Again
And since I believe the dollar is headed a lot lower during the Trump Presidency, the trade deficit is headed a lot higher. That's exactly what happened under Bush. The dollar hit an all-time record low under George W. Bush, and the trade deficit hit an all-time record high. And since I think the dollar is going to take out the lows it established under Bush, the trade deficit is going to take out the highs.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/7/2017 • 28 minutes, 15 seconds
Senate Passes Its Version of Fake Tax Reform – Ep. 305
Market Rallies on News of Passing Tax Cuts Act
Late Friday night, or I guess early Saturday morning, the Senate passed its version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Last week the market, as it became more apparent that the Senate was in fact going to pass the bill, the market was rallying, and continued to rally and, in fact rallied again today. This was the first chance the market had to react to the Senate actually passing their version of the bill.
DJIA Up, NASDAQ Down
At one point today: the DJIA was at 24,534, that's the new record high. It had surrendered most, if not all the gains by the close. The Dow closed up only about 58 points - still, a new record close at 24,290. The NASDAQ, on the other hand was down as the correction, and maybe the beginning of a bear market (we don''t know yet). The correction in the technology sector continues. The NASDAQ was down 72 points today. Although, even when the Dow was up 250 points earlier this morning, the NASDAQ was still down about 50 points. So the tech stocks are weak. The S&P ended up negative on the day, although it hit a record high intra-day.
Who Benefits?
Part of the justification for the markets rallying is the tax cuts. If corporate taxes are going down, then your after tax earnings are going up, and since stocks' value is in theory a function of their after tax earnings, if your after tax earnings goes up, then all else being equal the stock is going to be more valuable. But clearly taxes that are not earning money will not benefit from lower taxes.
Republicans Abandon Any Pretense of Smaller Government
I wanted to get into an analysis of the Senate version of these tax cuts. There was one Republican senator who voted the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, of course all the Democrats voted against it, but Senator Bob Corker, who voted against it on the principle of adding to the debt. There were some interesting rumors floating around last week that in order to get Corker to vote yes, they considered adding an automatic trigger (implementation seemed crazy to me, and that's why they did not do it) that if the tax cuts did not pay for themselves or the deficit got bigger, an automatic tax increase would be implemented. What disturbed me the most about this, is: Why would there be automatic tax increases, why not automatic spending cuts? Why not say that if the tax cuts don't pay for themselves, we'll cut spending in order to pay for the tax cuts? If this doesn't tell you that the Republican party has completely abandoned any pretense of wanting smaller government, I don't know what does.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/5/2017 • 51 minutes, 40 seconds
No Such Thing as a Permanent Tax Cut-Ep. 304
Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact
One of the things that could de-rail Wall Street enthusiasm is if Republicans are not able to deliver on the promised tax cuts. Of course, even if they are able to deliver, it will be a, "buy the rumor, sell the fact". Especially since the fact is not going to deliver the promises of the rumor, which is more economic growth. These tax cuts are not going to grow the economy because they do not shrink the size of government.
When the Fed Loses Control of the Bond Market
Government continues to grow, despite the tax cuts, meaning that government will have to find an alternative source of revenue, and that alternative source will be deficit spending and money printing, which will be negative for the economy. Ultimately, it will also be negative for the markets - maybe not in the short run, because money printing has not proven to be a negative for the markets thus far; it will only be a negative when it backfires and the Federal Reserve loses control of the bond market and when it can no longer pretend that inflation does not exist.
No Slam Dunk
When you look at the prospects for the tax cuts, I think the Senate is going to vote on Thursday, whether or not to pass its version, of course, if it doesn't make it through the senate, then it's done. Even if it makes it through the Senate, it needs to go through a reconciliation process so that the differences between the Senate and the House versions can be ironed out. Then they have to hope to get everybody to vote for the reconciled version, which is no slam dunk. Apparently, there are about 6 senators who are not fully on board with these tax cuts, who have expressed some reservations. So they have to get most of those 6, otherwise it is not going to work.
Individual Tax Cuts Expire in 2025
One of the more interesting discussions has to do with the fact that in the Senate's version, the individual tax cuts, most of them, anyway, expire in the year 2025. So that's not even a full 10 years from now. Why is that? Why are they making the individual tax cuts expire? What is even worse politically, is that corporate tax cuts are theoretically permanent, or at least they do not come with an expiration date. This is making for bad public relations on all the talk shows: "It's permanent for the rich corporations, but it's only temporary for individuals. It shows that by 2025, a lot of individuals who are getting tax cuts, will actually end up paying higher taxes.
Juggling Deficits
Now the way the Republicans are responding to this criticism just shows you how disingenuous this whole process is. The reason the Senate has to make the individual tax cuts temporary is so that the bill does not increase the deficit by more than $1.4 trillion over these 10 years, so to do that, they had to make the individual tax cuts expire, during these 10 years. During the entire 10 year window the deficit would go up by less than it needs to in order to be able to be approved according to the voting process.
The Whole Thing is a Farce
But at the same time, the senators are saying, "Don't worry about the fact that these tax cuts are temporary because no future Congress is going to allow them to expire. In other words, they are admitting that the whole thing is a sham, because they are using the expiration period to make the impact on the deficit smaller. But they are saying "Oh, it's really not going to make the deficit smaller because we're not going to allow the tax cuts to expire the way we've written it into the bill. In order to be able to pass it, we are going to cancel it, which means the whole thing is a farce. It means the Senate's version of the bill adds much more to the deficit than what the Senators are claiming in order to get the thing passed.
Government on a Credit Card
I've made this point before: No tax cuts are permanent. They are saying,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/27/2017 • 37 minutes, 11 seconds
Frankenfed Finally Fears Its Own Monster – Ep. 303
Fed Fears Inflation Is Not High Enough
Fed statements drove the markets today; particularly the foreign exchange markets and the precious metals markets. First we got a quote from Janet Yellen early this morning in which she was talking about inflation. Her concern is that inflation isn't high enough. Here's and exact quote from Janet Yellen:
“It can be quite dangerous to allow inflation to drift down and not to achieve over time a central bank’s inflation target,”
Dangerous? Dangerous to whom? She also says that one reason it is dangerous is because inflation expectations are likely to drift down, too. So she's not only worried that inflation isn't high enough, but she is worried that people won't be worried about inflation. Why is low inflation dangerous?
What's so Bad About Low Inflation?
First of all, it's not even negative. She's not saying we are going to have deflation, which I don't think is bad anyway. She is just saying it is dangerous if we don't have enough inflation, meaning that if we have 2-2.5% inflation, we're out of the danger zone, but if we have 1.5% inflation, we're in this danger zone?
What is so dangerous about prices not going up? This is all a bunch of nonsense that the media just accepts. Now, I'll tell you why it is dangerous and for whom it is dangerous: The reason the Fed wants high inflation is so the next time they cut interest rates, they can create a negative rate. They know that the bubble is so big that just low interest rates are not going to do anything. This addict is so hyped up on this "sauce" that we have to get rates negative. Low interest rates are not enough. They've got to be negative.
Major Ramifications for the Reserve Currency
So the Fed has got to be able to get the Fed Funds Rate below the inflation rate, and they need it to be way below, because, let's say inflation is only 1% and they go to zero interest rates, well they have -1%! That's not enough! They might think we need -3% or -4%. Well, if zero is the lower bound, and you want rates to be -3% then you need to have inflation at 3% in order to get a negative 3% yield. Unless you want to go from the absurd to the ridiculous, and actually take rates negative, which would have major ramifications for the reserve currency,
I think the Fed is still reluctant to try that, but if they have to, they'll certainly give it a shot. They'll use that as the Hail Mary, but they'd rather keep that one in their back pocket. So they need room to be able to get interest rates to zero but have a high enough negative rate to try to provide the stimulus that they think helps the economy.
Collateral Damage in the Fed's Manipulation and Experimentation
But it doesn't help the economy. This is all their nonsense but they are willing to sacrifice American families. They are just casualties of war, collateral damage in the Fed's manipulation and experimentation. They are saying that we need to have higher inflation so that we can fight the next recession. Well, the next recession is going to be a lot worse, if in addition to unemployment, people are dealing with a rising cost of living. But as far as the Fed is concerned, that's OK, because the only way we can stimulate the economy is to make sure we sedate it by causing the cost of living in the U.S. to go up and the standard of living to go down.
Concerns About a Potential Buildup of Financial Imbalances
The other danger of inflation not being high enough is probably the stock market. Interestingly enough, later on in the day, the FOMC minutes were released, and in addition to expressing their concern about low inflation, they are also worried about the stock market. It's about time, but listen to this, I am reading a quote from the minutes:
"In light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, several participants expressed concerns about a...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/23/2017 • 41 minutes, 7 seconds
Financial Conditions Easiest Since 1994 – Ep. 302
Financial Conditions Are Loosest Since 1994
I was reading an article today that the Chicago Fed released their National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and according to their research, financial conditions in the United States are the loosest since January of 1994. Of course, that was early on in the dot com bubble, before it even "bubbled up", it was just at the beginning of that bull market, yet the Federal Reserve has been tightening; raising interest rates for a couple of years. They've been talking about shrinking the balance sheet - why is it that financial conditions are looser now than they were when the Fed was still at zero?
Fed Behind the Curve
I have been talking about this the whole time. The Fed is so far behind the curve. Yes, they have raised interest rates, but it is too little too late. Even the official inflation rates have risen as much if not more than the rate hikes. Meanwhile, the stock market keeps going up and now that you have the dollar going down, a weakening dollar actually adds to the loosening of financial conditions which are obviously going to get a lot looser if the Fed doesn't really start jacking up rates faster, which I don't think they are going to do.
Relapsing Back into Recession
In fact, I think they are going to get ready to cut rates again and loosen financial conditions even further as the economy relapses back into recession, which I said in my last podcast, would have already been here had Hillary Clinton won the election. Since Donald Trump won, all this false optimism is delaying the onset of that recession for a year or two, but it's not preventing it. So if financial conditions are this loose now, when the Fed is tightening, imagine how much looser they're going to get when the Fed is easing.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/18/2017 • 34 minutes, 3 seconds
Lies Republicans Tell to Sell Tax Cuts – Ep. 301
Faltering Expectations
The U.S. dollar and the stock market continued to be a little bit under pressure this week as anxieties are rising over the fate of the tax cuts with so many investors are putting so much expectation into the proposed tax cuts.
Tax Cuts Do Not Reflect Smaller Government
I have gone over many times on this podcast why I do not believe the tax cuts are going to help the economy. Tax cuts are good for the economy to the extent that they reflect smaller government. If you are going to make government smaller, and government is going to be less of a burden on the economy, if government is going to take fewer resources out of the economy, it will be freeing those resources up for the private sector. If you are lowering people's taxes because you relieve them of the responsibility of paying for a larger government, that is a big positive!
Government Will Have to Print or Borrow
Any time we can take resources out of the government sector and put them back into the private sector, those resources will be used more efficiently and more productively, the economy will be better off. But if we simply cut taxes, and allow government to get bigger and bigger, that is not good for the economy. All that is happening is that the government has to find and alternative source for paying for the resources it is consuming. And if it is not going to collect it through taxes, then it is going to have to borrow it or print it. Those other ways of sucking up those resources do more economic damage than what otherwise would have been the case if they had just left taxes alone.
So Everybody is Wrong
So everybody is wrong in believing that these tax cuts are going to be good for the economy. They are not going to be good for the economy, and they are certainly not going to be good for the dollar. They will hurt the dollar because, by definition, instead of removing dollars, the government is going to print dollars out of thin air and spend that. So they are debasing the dollar.
No Individual Mandate
But putting that aside, there is still a lot of nervousness out there about whether or not the tax cuts will pass and what their final form will be. First of all, the Senate came out yesterday and all of a sudden thew a curve ball into the tax cuts. As part of the tax cuts they said they were going to repeal the individual mandate from Obamacare. That is the part that requires individuals to pay a penalty to the government for not purchasing insurance.
Hail Mary
First of all, the fact that they have to throw that in there shows that they needed to do that to tempt some Republicans, maybe like Rand Paul, who were on the fence or not for the tax cuts. I think the fact that they had to go for the Hail Mary shows that they are having a hard time getting enough Republican support.
Saving the Government Money?
But here's the ridiculous part: The government claims that by eliminating the individual mandate it is going to save the government a lot of money and the savings will subsidize a larger tax cut for the middle class. Wait a minute. The individual mandate means that people who don't buy insurance have a penalty to the government! That's revenue to the government. Wouldn't that cost the government more?
Republican Logic
Here is the Republican logic: If they stop penalizing people who don't buy health insurance, then fewer people will buy health insurance. Some of the people who are buying health insurance now are getting government subsidies, so if they don't buy health insurance then the government won't have to provide the subsidies and that's where they save the money.
Premiums Through the Roof
Then they argue that if younger healthy people drop out, then insurance premiums will rise even faster than they are rising right now. And because health insurance premiums will rise a lot faster,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/16/2017 • 42 minutes, 24 seconds
Senate Rearranges the Deck Chairs – Ep. 300
No Real Tax Relief
Yesterday the Senate released their version of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, and it is not that different from the House version. There are some differences, some of which I will get into, but the main problem is not the difference, but the similarity. The plans don't deliver any kind of substantial tax relief, in the manner that President Trump refers to as, "the biggest tax cuts ever". It's not even close. For most people, there will be minor tax cuts and for other people there are actually minor tax increases.
Democrats: "I'll Give You Something You Did Not Earn!"
The real problem, again, is that Republicans can't really be Republicans, given how much debt we have. They like to talk about lower taxes - that's how they get elected: "We're going to lower your taxes!". The Democrats are generally the party of, "I'm going to increase your benefits! Vote for me and I will give you something you did not earn." What the Republicans used to say is, "Vote for me and I'll let you keep more of what you did earn." That was really the difference between the Democrats and the Republicans. The Democrats were about taking things from other people and the Republicans were about keeping your stuff.
You Can't Take Away an Entitlement
The problem is, too many Republicans are really Democrats or they're afraid to cut any government spending. At this point, the deficits are so big that you can't really have big tax cuts unless you're willing to cut government spending. Most Republicans are not willing to do that. Sometimes they will vote not to create a new government entitlement, but they will never vote to take something away, which is why they didn't really want to take away Obamacare. A lot of Republicans didn't vote for it, but they are not going to vote to kill it.
Small Government Everywhere but in the Military
The problem is, if you really want to cut spending so you can have tax cuts, where's the money? The defense budget is big, and most Republicans don't want to cut defense - that' s the only place they like big government (in theory) is defense. They want small government everywhere except in the military. So there are not very many Republicans who are willing to cut defense to enable the tax cuts.
So What's Left for Republicans to Cut?
Now you got Social Security and Medicare, but a lot of Social Security recipients vote Republican. So the Republicans don't want to cut Social Security and don't want to cut Medicare because they are afraid of how the voters will react. So that's off the table. You can't cut interest on the debt, unless you're going to default on the debt; nobody wants to do that. In fact, interest on the debt is going to go up as interest rates go up. So what's left that Republicans (in theory) can cut? They are afraid of being labeled mean, heartless, taking away programs for the poor, the needy - so there's really nothing that the Republicans are willing to cut, so they can't give any tax cuts. They don't want to level with their constituents and say that they can't cut your taxes because then, what's the point of voting Republican?
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/11/2017 • 57 minutes, 44 seconds
Trump’s “Surprise” Win One Year Later – Ep. 299
Conventional Media Was Surprised
It's hard to believe has been a year since Donald Trump shocked everybody, at least everybody in the conventional media, Wall Street, all the pundits, professional politicians, anybody who has anything to do with Saturday Night Live... Nobody believed that Trump a snowball's chance in Hell of winning the White House. Hillary Clinton had already picked out her china patterns, she had this big glass ceiling that she was going to shatter in her victory party. So everybody believed that Trump was going to lose and Hillary was going to win even after the polls closed. It took about an hour or two for reality to set in.
Conventional Media Was Surprised
So now it has been a year. Of course the stock market has gone up a lot during that year, in fact, the market was up just under 21% in Trump's first year. Of course, Trump never lets you forget this because he constantly talks about it, but he says this stock market rise is unprecedented - and that is a lie! Why do you have to go out of your way to lie when 21% is still a big move. In fact if you go back to Eisenhower, which is almost 70 years, this is the fifth biggest rally for a President's first year. That's still not bad, it's fifth place. The guy in last place is George W. Bush.
Not Unprecedented
Unfortunately, Bush was elected in 2000 and the market tanked that year, it was down 20.4%. That is the worst performance of any President. Trump is #5, but let's look at #1; Number one was Bill Clinton - Democrat, 1996, his second term, the market was up 31.7%. So that's a 50% greater rise than Trump's first year, yet Trump is claiming that this is unprecedented. Kennedy, first term, 1960, the market was up 28.4%. In third place, Barack Obama's second term the market rallied 23.9%. Then George Bush (41), in 1988, the stock market rallied 21.7%. So Trump is certainly in the top third, but his first year is not unprecedented.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/9/2017 • 34 minutes, 6 seconds
Obama Employment Trends Continue Under Trump – Ep. 298
High Expectations for Jobs Numbers
This morning we got the release of the October jobs report, and it followed the hurricane-related very weak report that we got in September. This time, the reason actually was weather-related. Remember, they originally reported a decline of 33,000 in September. No one cared, though, because it was all about the hurricane. This month everybody was very optimistic; the consensus for October was 325,000 jobs.
Numbers Fell Flat
I was watching CNBC this morning and they were all trying to guess the jobs number. Everybody ended up being over. Rick Santelli's estimate actually was 401,000, but most guys were somewhere between 350 - 400,00, so everyone on CNBC was more optimistic than the consensus. And then the number came out at 261,000. Everybody went over, so they all lost by the Price is Right rules.
Lowest Unemployment Since Dot Com Bubble
But beneath the surface, this is a weak report - even weaker than the 261,000 jobs that were reported. The unemployment fell to 4.1. That's a new low for this cycle. You have to go all the way back to the dot com bubble to get an unemployment rate this low. I don't know if Trump tweeted about it yet, but I'm sure he's going to talk about it: "Oh this is great!" He's going to take credit for the drop in the unemployment rate. But the problem is, the reason that the unemployment dropped was because so many people left the labor force
Largest Labor Force Exodus
We had 968,000 people leaving the labor force in October. This was the third largest monthly exodus ever, causing the number of Americans currently exiled from the labor force to hit a new record high - 95,385,000. The labor force participation rate plunged back down to 62.7% from 63%.
Obama Revisited
This is the exact same type of jobs numbers we were getting under Obama, where you'd have a falling unemployment rate because so many people were leaving the labor force and so many people were working part time. Candidate Trump was extremely critical of this:"The unemployment rate is the biggest con, the biggest fraud in history - unemployment is really 30-40-50% - the jobs are lousy, they are low paying, people are leaving the labor force!" Exactly what is going on today. Yet now, "Everything is great, the unemployment rate is low, it's all thanks to me, and I'm doing a great job!"
Weak Number
This is a weak number. In fact, look at average hourly earnings. They were supposed to rise by .2% and they were flat. The only reason they were flat is because they rounded it up. Actually, average hourly earnings went down during the month of October. And this is not adjusted for inflation. These are just the earnings. So we know prices are going up and so earnings actually went down in October. Now year over year, we have an increase of earnings of 2.4%. I am sure the cost of living is up by more than 2.4%, regardless of what the CPI claims. So this is a weak report.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/4/2017 • 32 minutes, 5 seconds
The Swamp Wins on Taxes and the Fed – Ep. 297
No Change in the Fed Swamp
The announcement of the new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, represents a commitment to the status quo at the Fed. President Trump has nominated the person most likely to do exactly what Janet Yellen did for President Obama. Powell has voted in lock step with Janet Yellen for the entire time she has chaired the Fed. The only real difference between the two is that Yellen is a Democrat and Powell is a Republican, even though he was nominated to be on the Fed by President Obama.
Politics as Usual, Rather than Change
Powell does not have an economics degree. Initially you might think that's a plus; Bernanke and Yellen have Ph.D.'s in economics, but they know nothing about economics because they learned from Keynesians. But Powell has hung out with these folks for such a long time, I assume he has all the same failures when it comes to understanding economics. More important than that is the politics of this. Jerome Powell embodies everything Candidate Trump criticized about the Fed and about Janet Yellen. President Trump accused Janet Yellen of being political, keeping interest rates artificially low to make Obama look better and to help Hillary get elected, and all of that was true. This is why many people voted for Trump, they voted for change. They thought that he was going to drain the swamp. Well the water level at the swamp is not going down at all with the nomination of Jerome Powell. Trump interviewed John Allison, who would have represented a change; he is a free market guy, and Austrian economist, Ayn Rand fan, he would have been a market change in direction at the Fed
Cut, Cut, Cut Plan
Now let's turn to the sham that is the Tax Cuts. Donald Trump wanted to call the plan the Cut, Cut, Cut Plan. Instead, they named it the Tax Cut and Jobs Act. This plan will definitely create jobs for the accountants. I skimmed through the 450-page outline of this plan, and what I can tell you is I believe that taxes will be much more complicated if this bill passes than they are now.
Tax Savings Will Go to Accountants
For low income earners. this tax bill will not complicate already rather simple tax filings. But if you have a small business with employees and capital investments, this bill will substantially complicate your tax filing. So to the extent that you might save any money on taxes, you will spend more on accounting fees, which by the way, are no longer deductible.
No Reduction in Size of Government
This bill is not the biggest tax cut in history, and it is not a tax cut for everybody. Many people will see a tax increase. Overall, the government will collect less revenue as a result of this bill, even though some people will be paying more. I watched Republicans claiming that this bill will provide relief from high taxes - there is no real relief because government doesn't get any smaller. The reason tax payers have such a heavy burden to bear is because government is so big. Since there is no reduction in the size of government, in fact, government is getting bigger, and will be bigger next year taxes should be going up on everybody! But Republicans are saying, " No we're not going to make government any cheaper, in fact we're going to provide even more government, we're going to make government bigger and more expensive, but we're just going to relieve you of the burden of paying for it, which is impossible, because there are not free lunches. There are no free lunches from Democrats and there are no free lunches from Republicans.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/3/2017 • 45 minutes, 49 seconds
Tax Reform Trial Balloons Keep Popping – Ep. 296
Trial Balloon #1: Backpedaling on State and Local Tax Deductions
All this talk about tax cuts is all a fraud, because government is getting more expensive and the taxpayers are going to be stuck paying the bill one way or another. They keep on launching these "trial balloons. I was reading over the weekend that they are backpedaling, talking about the idea of eliminating the deduction for state and local taxes, but not for property taxes. So everybody can deduct their property taxes because everybody pays property taxes, whether you're in a red state or a blue state, whether you have state income tax or not. In fact, some states without state income tax have higher property taxes to compensate. So they still are going to allow the property tax deduction. That's the latest trial balloon that I have heard about.
Housing Lobby Against Tax Reform
But we still a lot of Republicans from high-tax states to allow the deduction for all taxes, including income taxes. The housing industry is still pushing back because they want people to deduct property taxes because that reduces the cost of owning property and makes it easier to sell at a higher price because one of the features of the property is a tax deduction. They also want to preserve the home mortgage deduction. I was reading that the housing lobby is trying to get something in there. Because if you double the standard deduction, that means far fewer people will itemize and they won't need the tax break associated with home ownership and that is a problem for the housing industry, that is really selling tax shelters. They are lobbying to get Congress to put back in a "homeowner's credit". Even if you don't itemize, you could still get some kind of tax benefit for being a home owner, which, if we were really reforming the tax code we would not want to do.
Trial Balloon#2: 20% Corporate Tax Rate "Phased In Over 4 Years"
Another trial balloon that came out over the weekend, obviously the market is not liking it, is that corporate tax cuts, where the plan is to lower the corporate tax rate to 20% from 35% - now they are saying that this would be phased in over a number of years so we wouldn't actually get to a 20% corporate tax rate until the year 2022. Now, why would they be doing this? Well, obviously, to the extent that they can delay the phase-in of the lower rate, then the effect on the deficit, at least during the initial years is not as great because they don't have to immediately calculate the reduction in tax revenue.
Failing to Attract Business to the U.S.
A lot of people are saying, "Well this will still be okay, because at least it's a permanent tax cut, and American businesses with still know that they can look forward to these lower tax rates..." And really what these lower tax rates are designed to do is to make the U.S. a more competitive place to do business. My feeling would be, if they delay the implication of these tax cuts until 2022, they ain't happening!
Getting a Bad Rap
A lot of stuff is going to happen in the economy between now and 2022, including another presidential election in 2020, and I'm already on record as saying that Trump will be a one termer, a placeholder between 2 democratic administrations. All the economic problems that built up during the Obama administration will blow up under Trump. If we get a Bernie Sanders-type as President in 2020, what are the odds that the 2022 corporate tax cuts are ever going to see the light of day?
No Such Thing as Permanent Tax Relief
All these people talking about permanent tax relief, what are these guys smoking? There is no permanent tax relief, especially when you don't have any relief from increased government spending. You know how much bigger the national debt will be by 2022? They will have to raise taxes on somebody, and obviously, corporations will be an easy target, especially if they are vilified.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/31/2017 • 34 minutes, 16 seconds
Republicans Won’t Even Consider Cutting Spending to Pay for Tax Cuts – Ep. 295
We're getting a tax cut!
There is one thing now that that has the potential to cause a short-term decline of more than 3% in the stock market, and that would be: no tax cut. If the Republicans announce that they're at a deadlock, and we're not going to have any tax reform or tax cuts, it seems to me the stock market will get hit. Washington and Wall Street both agree that if we don't get this tax cut, the market's going down. So what does that mean? We're getting a tax cut!
Making the Stock Market Great Again
After all, the market is now the barometer of the success of the Trump Presidency, and by extension, the Republicans in the House and Senate. If House Republicans want to get elected in 2018, the Dow Jones had better be higher than when Trump was elected. This is not about making America Great Again, it's about Making the Stock Market Great Again. Not that it wasn't great before Trump was elected, but now the greatness of the stock market goes hand in hand with the greatness of America.
Accelerating the Growth of the Budget Deficit
So we are going to get a tax cut, but that pretty much assures that we are going to get an increase in deficits and the National Debt. They've already cleared the way now in the Senate and the House is about to rubber stamp it someway that the Republicans are allowed to reduce revenue to the Federal government by $1.5 trillion in the tax cut bill - over 10 years. So it's not $1.5 trillion a year, it's only $150 billion a year, over 10 years. Remember, government spending is going to rise substantially over those 10 years, so the government actually needs a lot more revenue in order to cover all its spending. So when you reduce the revenue you just further accelerate the growth of the budget deficit and the resulting National debt.
Republicans Don't Care About the Deficit
We've got a number of Republicans who were very hawkish about the debt and when Obama was President, "We're going to shut down the government…" "We're not going to raise the debt ceiling…" They demanded fiscal discipline. In fact, there was some modicum of discipline imposed on the budget, but all that is now being unraveled under Trump. Now the Republicans can throw out whatever discipline that they forced into the system when Obama was President. I've said this before, that when Republicans are in the minority, they can at least try to exert some pressure on government spending. The minute they have both houses of Congress and the White House, precedence shows that they don't care about the deficit.
Consequences of Tax Cuts: Higher Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
The deficits are only a problem when the Republicans are in the minority. But when they have the power, they don't care about it because they want a tax cut, and deficits be damned. Especially when the market now depends on it. Nobody wants to stand in the way of the market. Even Rand Paul, who was the one Republican who voted against the Senate budget resolution, has already said that he will vote for the tax cuts. He just did not want to vote for the budget bill to enable the tax cuts. Somehow now that the budget bill has been enacted, he is going to vote for the tax cuts. He'd rather people pay lower tax than deal with the consequences, which are: higher inflation, higher interest rates. There is not free lunch. That is the problem with these tax cuts.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/24/2017 • 41 minutes, 6 seconds
30-Year Anniversary of the 1987 Stock Market Crash – Ep. 294
Black Monday 1987
Today marks the 30th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. It's hard to believe that it's been 30 years. I still remember where I was when the crash happened and my reaction to it. It happened just after I had graduated from the University of California at Berkeley. By the time the crash happened, I had already accepted a job in Newport Beach, California. I was going to be working in the commodity options market, but I hadn't started yet.
Lesson: The Market Goes Up
The crash began a few weeks before I was on the job, but I do remember when I first got there, I met a guy who had a lot of S&P 500 puts for clients and for him, anyway the crash was a great thing because he was able to make a lot of money on those puts. Of course the S&P was a fraction of its current value. The market is up dramatically since the 1987, which is the lesson that everybody hope that you learn: "Hey don't worry about the market. If it ever goes down, it's going to come back up."
Trade Deficit Tiny Compared to Now
I remember some of the catalysts that were weighing heavily on the stock market leading up to the crash of '87 was the fact that the dollar was weakening as a result of a increase in the trade deficit - trade deficits that are tiny in comparison to the enormous one that we run today. Yet nonetheless, people were rightly worried about it back then. They couldn't care less about the trade deficits now.
Interest Rates at 9%
Also interest rates were rising. The yields on the 30-year bond (nobody really talked about the 10-year back then) were 9% and they were going up. So you had 9% interest rate, interest rates rising, the dollar falling, the trade deficits getting bigger and the stock market had pretty much ignored what everybody agreed was bad news at the time. The stock market kept going up anyway, despite all of that. Eventually it all came crashing down in 1 day.
Good Company
One of the things I remember about that was how Alan Greenspan reacted. I mentioned this on a prior podcast. Greenspan had not been the Fed chair that long when the market crashed. He took over from Paul Volker. I knew Greenspan, and was familiar with him because he was a libertarian and an Austrian economist. He had written an essay on Gold and Economic Freedom, which I had read, in addition to Ayn Rand's Capitalization: the Unknown Ideal.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/20/2017 • 39 minutes, 3 seconds
U.S. Inflation Is Bullish for Gold and Bearish for the Dollar – Ep. 293
Inflation Higher Than Expected
Today we got the hotter than expected news on prices - on inflation. We got the import/export prices. Import prices were supposed to be up 0.5%, which in and of itself is a pretty big jump, but they were up 0.7. Export were also up; (we would want export prices to go up, because that means we are getting more for what we export) they were expected to rise 0,4%, and instead they rose by 0.8. Double the expectation.
Import/Export Index Methodology More Accurate
Year over year, import prices are up 2.7%. As of last month, the year over rise was just 2.1%, so that's a pretty big jump in the year over year gain. Export prices were up 2.9% year over year. Averaging these out, you get 2.8% as the average increase in 1 year of the price of the stuff we import and export. That's a broad based increase - well above the supposed 2% level the Fed is looking for. They are looking for consumer prices, measured by the CPI, but the Import/Export index represents things the consumers consume, and I would think these numbers are going to be more accurate than the CPI because there is less subjectivity in there. I think the methodology is more accurate than the methodology on the CPI. I think soon we're going to see year-over-year increases import and export prices with a 3 handle.
Markets Working Counter-Intuitively
When this news came out, the immediate reaction was to buy the dollar and sell gold. Why? Why is higher inflation bad for gold? The main reason to buy gold is as an inflation hedge. If you think there is going to be more inflation, then you buy gold. Perversely, the way the markets work now, you sell gold if you think there's going to be more inflation, in fact, you buy the currency of the country that is experiencing more inflation, which is counter-intuitive. Inflation by definition, is the currency losing value. If the currency is losing its purchasing power, why would you want to buy more of it? You would want to get rid of it to avoid that loss.
Will Higher Inflation Produce a Tighter Fed?
But the thinking is, if there is more inflation, as measured by these price indexes, that the Federal Reserve is now going to have to fight the inflation, that they are going to be more likely to raise interest rates, to raise them sooner, to raise them more, in the face of higher inflation. So it is the expectation that these higher numbers will produce a tighter Fed - that is what rallies the dollar, That is what hurts gold - the anticipation of higher rates to fight off the inflation.
Fighting Inflation vs. The Bubbles
Reality is that the Fed will ignore the higher inflation numbers and do nothing. Whatever it is going to do with rates, it will do it regardless of these numbers. Ultimately, if the Fed has to make a choice between fighting inflation and unemployment (because the Fed believes in the Phillips Curve trade-off between employment and inflation), the Fed will always choose to fight unemployment. It will prop up the labor market and sacrifice its inflation goal. It is more concerned with maintaining asset bubbles, propping up the U.S. government so it does not have to default on its debt.
Letting Inflation Burn
The reality is, higher inflation is not going to produce a tighter monetary policy. The Fed is going to have to ignore higher inflation, which means the inflation is going to get even worse. It is almost like the Fed has to ignore a fire, and because it ignores the fire, it is just going to get bigger, it's not going going to try to put it out because it is afraid that putting it out is actually worse than letting it burn. If traders understood this, then they would be dumping the dollar and buying gold.
Real Inflation vs. Nominal Inflation
Even if the Fed ultimately raises rates, they're not going to get out in front of the inflation curve.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/18/2017 • 41 minutes, 45 seconds
Record Confidence in U.S. Stocks Means Trouble Ahead – Ep. 292
Optimism Rules the Day
Friday the 13th was not an unlucky day for the U.S. stock market; all three of the major stock market averages closing at all time record highs. Optimism is ruling the day. In fact, there was a consumer confidence number that came out today revealing confidence in the economy - the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence - and this is a measure of the belief that the U.S stock market will be higher 12 months from now than it is today. By that measure, consumers have more confidence in the U.S. stock market than they have ever had in the past. That would include where we were just before the '08 Financial Crisis and where the market was at the peak of the dot com bubble.
Complacent Investors
In fact, there are other measures of investor sentiment that have never been this high. Look at the VIX, for example, which is really a measure of risk, of investors' need to hedge their portfolios. If you look at that, the VIX is at all time record lows. Investors have never been this complacent about the U.S. stock market - ever! And all of those measures of fear, confidence, are at the lowest and highest readings, respectively, that they've ever been, even though the U.S. stock market is extremely expensive.
Not a Bubble?
The U.S. stock market has only been this expensive near the peaks of previous bubbles. But what's different about this bubble is a) it's bigger, and b) people are even more confident now that it is not a bubble. You have less fear, less anxiety and investors are more convinced that they can't lose than at any prior time, despite the fact that we actually probably have more risk now than during any of the previous bubbles. Of course, it's not just the investors who are confident. Consumer confidence is high, in fact the consumer confidence number came out much higher than expected today.
Government Inflation Numbers Real? Not.
The dollar rallied on that today. Initially, down because of the lower than expected CPI, which is seen, paradoxically as good for the dollar if there is less inflation. Somehow, the way the markets react, if there is not enough inflation, they reduce the probability of a rate hike, so the dollar sold off. The PPI that came out yesterday was a little higher than expected, so people were worried: "Oh, well, maybe there's more inflation, then the CPI comes out and it's lower than expected. Of course none of these numbers are actually real, because we all know consumer prices are rising a lot faster than these indexes purport to show.
Fed Confusing Inflation with Employment
Of course, then the Fed complains that we don't have enough inflation. In fact the Fed actually claims they don't even understand why inflation is so low; they expect it to be higher. Ironically, not because of all the money they printed, they think inflation should be higher based on how low the unemployment is. They are looking at the Phillips curve and they don't understand why we don't have more inflation when the unemployment rate is so low. They don't understand that there's no real relationship between employment and inflation. If there was, it's the opposite of what they think. When people are productively employed, and making more things, that tends to keep prices down. When people are unemployed, governments have to subsidize them by printing a lot of money and making a lot of unemployment benefits or welfare benefits, that will generally lead to higher consumer prices. If anything, they will be correlated together, not opposite.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/14/2017 • 34 minutes, 9 seconds
Middle Class Tax Hikes Put Trump Tax Cuts in Jeopardy – Ep. 291
Congress May Not Deliver Promised Economic Growth
I think part of the renewed weakness in the dollar may be due to the feeling that all the tax cuts are not going to pass. The Trump/Republican plan outlined some days ago will be difficult to to get through Congress. Even if it does get through Congress it is not going to deliver the economic growth that is being advertised.
Tax Cuts Masquerading as Reform
Go back to the origins to the Republican dialogue about tax reform. They actually wanted to do reform. All the reform is out the window now. All we have is tax cuts masquerading as reform. But the initial concept that the Republicans had was to try to move toward a consumption-based tax system. They tried to do that through the back door with the BAT (Border Adjusted Tax), which is the opposite of what the Republicans are now promising, which was tax relief for the middle class. That's not what they are delivering.
Getting Around Elimination of State & Local Tax Deductions
A lot of people are going to get tax increases. Part of the problem, though is the elimination of the deductibility of state and local taxes. I mentioned on an earlier podcast that the states can get around this by shifting the tax to a payroll tax that will be fully deductible for the employers. Any resulting reduction in salary would be offset by the elimination of state and local taxes. If the states react the way I think they will to the loss of the deduction, the governments will not reap the tax windfall that they expect, causing much bigger deficits.
Big Deficits Ahead
At the end of the day the bill may not pass because Congress may not be willing to sign on to anything that raises taxes. They want everybody to get at tax cut. How are you going to do that? How are you going to cut income taxes and not cut spending on anything without having a huge increase in the deficit - which of course is what is going to happen.
Recession Ahead
You can try to assume that some of that increase is not there because of dynamic scoring, you can assume that tax cuts are going to lead to economic growth. Maybe they will, but I think regardless we're going to have a recession. There is no recession in any of the forecasts. Nobody thinks a recession is coming at any point during the next 10 years, whether we cut taxes or not. I think, whether we cut taxes or not we're going to have a recession, and if there is a recession, you can throw all this dynamic scoring out the window!
Production Equals Stimulus
Even if the recession is not as severe as a result of the tax cuts, the results will still be huge increases in the budget deficit. They are losing some Republican support and they are going to have to reach across the aisle, and there is no way the Democrats will sign on to any tax cuts for the "rich". If they take away tax cuts on corporations, they take away the reduction in the marginal tax rate, then you lose any hope of economic stimulus. That is where the stimulus comes from. Real economic stimulus comes from more capital investment, more job creation, less consumption. That is what you get when you reduce marginal taxes on people with the highest propensity to save and invest.
Inflation Ahead
The Keynesians have it backwards. They think stimulus comes from consumption - it doesn't. Consumption doesn't stimulate anything. Consumption without production just leads to higher prices which is what is going to happen. We are going to get more inflation.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/11/2017 • 32 minutes, 1 second
Government Costs More When Paid for with Borrowed Money – Ep. 290
Government Is Not Measured by What It Taxes, It Is Measured by What It Spends
Democrats promise free stuff; Republicans promise free tax cuts. What's a free tax cut? That's a tax cut that happens even though you don't reduce government spending. In a recent panel discussion with Steve Forbes, I made the point that government is not measured by what it taxes, it is measured by what it spends. So, if the government is spending money, there is a cost associated with that, whether or not we pay for it through taxation, we're still going to pay for it.
Cutting Taxes, but Borrowing and Printing the Difference Is Worse
We're going to pay for it through more debt, higher inflation, and ultimately higher taxes in the future to not only repay the debt, but to pay the interest on the money we borrowed to finance the tax cuts. So cutting taxes, but borrowing and printing the difference is worse. I would rather pay for government with taxes than debt and inflation and higher taxes in the future. That is the argument I made with Steve Forbes is: If the Republicans are going to tell their constituents that they can get tax cuts even though the government continues to grow, they how do they have the political ability to generate the swell of public opinion to shrink government?
You Can't Have Big Government and Low Taxes
What I want the Republicans to do is make it all about less government. I want the Republicans to say, "You've got a choice. You can have big government and high taxes, or you can have small government and low taxes." That's it. You can't have big government and low taxes. That's what the Republicans want to sell and that's what Steve Forbes was advocating, but if people think they can have their cake and eat it too, they they will vote for that. But if you put it in those terms: "You want lower taxes, you need less government. If you want to pay less for government, then government has to cost less. Yes you can have a big tax cut, more take home pay, but these are the government programs you have to eliminate in order to make that possible."
You Can't Tell the Voters They Can Have Tax Cuts First and Cut Spending Later
You might be able to generate support for cutting government spending if people realize there is a reward for that. You cut government spending and then you get the tax cuts. Steve Forbes was arguing to give the tax cuts first. If we get the tax cuts first, you will never get the cuts in spending. It's like young kids who want dessert first, but if they want dessert, they have to eat their dinner. If I give my kids dessert first, they'll never eat their dinner! So you can't tell the voters they can have their tax cuts first and then we'll cut spending later because we we'll never get smaller government. The tax cuts must be contingent on the spending cuts.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/7/2017 • 37 minutes, 48 seconds
More Gun Laws Will Not Prevent Mass Killings – Ep. 289
Gun Laws Do Not Prevent Crime
The answer to preventing mass killings is not more gun control; Stephen Paddock would have been able to get those guns regardless of whether or not owning them was illegal. He would have found a way to get those guns. Heroine is illegal, cocaine is illegal - there are all kinds of things that are illegal - it doesn't stop people from getting them.
Criminals Will Break Any Law
If you are a criminal, you are going to break the law, and clearly, if you're willing to murder, you're willing to break the law about gun ownership. Had the police not found him when he did, who knows how many people he would have indiscriminately murdered? He still had a hundreds of unused bullets that he was intending to fire at the crowd. He didn't even know who he was shooting; he did not care who he hit. So clearly, someone who is willing to commit that kind of murder is willing to break the gun laws.
Another Person With A Gun Could Prevent the Murder
So gun control would not have prevented him from committing this crime. Maybe if someone with a gun in the hotel had found him earlier they could have shot that guy in the back of the head before he had the chance to shoot as many people as he did.
Beware of Overreaction
What really scares me, though, too, is what kind of backlash we might have, what kind of overreaction for additional security at hotels. Will it be confined to just Las Vegas hotels, or hotels all over the country? I get visions of checking into a hotel being just like the TSA lines at the airports. There is no way to be sure that a hotel can keep guns out of a hotel room. They don't have cameras inside hotel rooms. Is it possible that if they had had extra security at check-in Stephen Paddock would not have been able to get his guns up to his room? He might not have, but this was obviously a premeditated act that took days of preparation, and he could have found a way around the safeguards, or devised another way of killing.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/3/2017 • 36 minutes, 19 seconds
Stock Indexes End Q3 at Record Highs – Ep. 288
Record Highs in the Markets
This is the last day of the third quarter; S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended at record highs. I am not sure what made the Dow miss an all-time record - it was close but no cigar. Other broader measures did hit record highs to close out the quarter, in fact, Donald Trump was tweeting about the record highs in the stock market earlier this morning. Of course, when we were having record highs under Obama, it was a bubble and it didn't matter, but now that it is his bubble, it's now a bull market and it simply shows what a great job he is doing as President.
Weak Dollar Boosts International Markets
Of course, U.S stock markets were overshadowed by international markets, thanks in large part to the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The dollar did recover some of its losses in this closing week of the quarter (I believe, again, a bit of a dead cat bounce). I think the dollar is going to have its weakest quarter of the year in the fourth quarter, so we'll see if I'm right on that. But even with a little bit of a bounce, the dollar index back up to 93.o7. Despite that, foreign markets still well out-performed the U.S. stock markets in Q3 as did gold stocks. If you bought gold stocks, they did better than the S&P in Q3.
Gold Seeking Key Level
I think the divergence between the gold stocks and the S&P is going to accelerate in Q4. Obviously 1300 was not really the breakout; gold got all the way up to $1350 before turning back, and it's now back below $1300; it was off another few bucks today. So I think maybe $1300 wasn't the key level. It's probably $1350 or higher before we get the breakout. I think we're at $1280 right now.
Personal Income and Spending Weak
More bad economic news: the big number was personal income and spending. It met expectations, relatively, except they did revise July down. It was originally reported at +1.4% and they revised it to +1.3%, so, weaker than they had originally reported. For August it was up .2% and consumer spending was up .1%. Last month's +.3 was unrevised but this month met expectations of +.1% and these are low numbers
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/30/2017 • 37 minutes, 42 seconds
Pros and Cons of the Trump Tax Plan – Ep. 287
Estate Tax is Out
Today President Trump announced some of the details of his highly-anticipated tax reform, which is really not tax reform, it's more of a tax cut masquerading as a reform. I would say the best part about it is the elimination of the estate tax. That, in and of itself is a very substantial improvement. That tax should not be there; it raises very little revenue but does tremendous damage to businesses. It impedes the ability of a family business to be passed down from generation. It leads to the destruction and dismantling of businesses, the loss of know-how, ingenuity and jobs.
Fewer Tax Brackets
As far as the rest of the plan, I like lower taxes, I like fewer brackets (I'd like to have just one bracket - I'd like to flatten it all the way down to zero). Under the President's plan, the brackets are 12, 25 and 35%. I'd just as soon it would be one bracket of 25%. If we are going to have an income tax let's let everybody pay the same rate. The new plan is an improvement over the number of brackets we have now. But again, remember, some future President can just expand on these brackets. In fact they're already talking about a fourth bracket because the highest bracket, 35% represents a reduction of the current top rate of 39.6%. Of course you have to add the 39% Obamacare tax and, of course a lot of people have to add the state income taxes.
State and Local Taxes No Longer Deductible
By the way, if this version of the bill passes, state taxes will no longer be deductible. That was the one deduction that they were willing to give up, state and local taxes, but they preserved the home mortgage deduction. Personally, I'd rather see it the other way around: get rid of the home mortgage deduction and allow people to deduct their state and local income taxes. I have a problem on taxing people on money they never got. If the state taxes you, you never get that money. Why should the Federal government tax you on the money the state took from you before you had a chance to get it? I did a podcast on that idea. I think you can't take income that was taken from the citizens by the state. In fact it may even be unconstitutional.
Home Mortgage Deduction is All Politics
Why keep the home mortgage deduction? It's all politics. That deduction is bad economics. If we're going to have an income tax, you don't have a choice about whether or not to pay state and local taxes, but you have a choice about whether or not to buy a house. You shouldn't get a deduction on your income tax based on the way you choose to spend your money. That's the government trying to micro-manage buying decisions, trying to distort and influence the economy. But the housing industry is a strong lobby and they influence the tax code. It's because of the swamp creatures that the mortgage deduction is there.
Standard Deduction is Doubled
Now the standard deduction is doubled. What this means is more people utilize this standard deduction, fewer people will itemize. Itemizing is less advantageous because you can't include your state and local taxes. Now if you own real estate, right now you deduct not only your mortgage but your property taxes. If you can no longer deduct your property taxes, obviously that will reduce the value of real estate because it increases the after tax cost of owning it.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/28/2017 • 34 minutes, 8 seconds
Did Yellen Push the Envelope Too Far? – Ep. 286
Yellen Putting On an Optimistic Front
Everybody is watching Janet Yellen this week; the Federal Reserve met and did not raise interest rates - no one expected them to raise interest rates. But Yellen did offer a more optimistic assessment on the economy than most people were expecting. In fact, she shrugged off all these hurricanes and did not mentioned all the money that will have to be borrowed to repair all the destroyed infrastructure.
No Rate Hike
She's not worried at all about the impact of the hurricanes on the economy, and based on how upbeat she is, the markets are convinced that we are going to get another rate hike between now and the end of the year. Most likely December - and I think the markets had already started to price out a December rate hike and now they are pricing it back in.
Shrinking The Balance Sheet
But what everybody was waiting for was the plan on quantitative tightening. They are afraid to use that language, but they're just talking about winding down their balance sheet. Janet Yellen did say that they would begin in October or November. They will not roll over $10 billion per month. Now, if they earn $15 billion in interest, they are still going to re-invest $5 billion. So it is possible that even though they are doing this "taper", that the balance sheet could still be getting bigger.
$10 Billion a Month Forever
If they stay at $10 billion a month it will take forever to actually shrink the balance sheet - which they won't do, because long before we get to forever, we're going to get to the next recession and then they will have to crank up the balance sheet.
Fed is in a Box
The Fed is in this box, they've boxed themselves in. They have kept rates so low for so long, they've allowed so much debt to accumulate it is impossible to allow interest rates to rise, but they can't admit that. So they have to pretend, they have to talk as if everything is going to be fine, they will be able to normalize rates, they will be able to shrink the balance sheet. None of this is possible, and it's only a matter of time before the market figures it out.
Bankrupt!
Just like Toys R Us - bankrupt overnight. It was just a matter of time before Toys R Us creditors realized they are insolvent. Then, Boom! Puerto Rico, already bankrupt, can't do anything to help itself now. It it were not for money coming to Puerto Rico from the United States, what would they do? They didn't save, they squandered their money, they ran up big debts - America has done the same thing and there is no bailout for America.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/22/2017 • 36 minutes, 58 seconds
Fed Minutes More Show Than Substance – Ep. 285
Market Anticipates Quantitative Tightening
The market continues to rise; people are excited about the Fed meeting that start tomorrow and concludes on Wednesday. Nobody expects a rate hike and there's not going to be a rate hike, but what everybody is looking forward to is the Fed outlining its strategy for quantitative tightening.
Shrinking the Balance Sheet
The Fed hasn't actually used those words yet; I use that term because what they are going to do is they are going to shrink their balance sheet. Right now, it's pretty much as large as it's ever been ever since it has done QE: just over $4.5 trillion. The idea is that the Fed is going to lay out a timetable or a roadmap for shrinking this balance sheet.
Upward Pressure on Interest Rates
I don't know why the markets are so excited about the prospect of a plan to shrink the Fed's balance sheet; if the Fed actually shrunk the balance sheet the markets would not like it. This would put dramatic upward pressure on interest rates, which is not good for stocks.
GDP Estimates Down
Also, GDP forecasts are coming down, we had big reductions late last week. Much of the reductions came from bad economic data we received before the hurricanes. Now, in the aftermath of hurricanes, that bad economic data is going to get even worse. They are already tallying up the damage from Irma and Harvey and it is enormous.
Real Estate Under Water
Speaking about real estate, there are many people who did not have flood insurance. The question is: What are they going to do with their houses? Are they going to borrow more money with low interest rate government loans and be deeper under water? Or are they going to walk away from their homes and just give these underwater housed back to the bank? Also, if Maria hits Puerto Rico and does a lot of damage, the U.S. government will have to pay for some of that.
Government Spending Increase
With all this bad news about the economy, why is the Fed going to try to make it worse by shrinking its balance sheet? The budget deficit is already going to explode; all the hurricane relief money needs to be borrowed. Trump is promising to roll out the Republican tax cut plan by the end of the month and it may be a joint efforts with the Democrats. They've already said it will increase the deficit. If the deal is with the Democrats, it will no only mean less tax revenue, it will also mean big increases in government spending.
Money for Hurricane Damage - Money for Everybody!
So not only will we be paying for hurricane damage, there will be new infrastructure spending, new money for the military - who knows if we get money for the wall? Maybe it's going to be money for everybody, the Democrats and Republicans coming together to fill everybody's Christmas stocking with goodies for the voters. How is the Federal Reserve going to add to the pressure?
Who Will Buy Government Bonds?
Remember: if the Treasury is going to borrow more money, that's more bonds being offered for sale. If the Federal Reserve is not only not a buyer for those bonds (which it normally would do), if it is shrinking its balance sheets it cannot buy any of them. So now the Federal government, the Treasury, is going to have to go into the private market to sell well over a trillion dollars worth of treasuries to finance next year's budget deficit without any help from the Fed.
Repay Fed Plus Finance New Borrowing
But not only is the Fed not going to help, the Treasury will be in competition with the Fed. They will both be trying to unload treasuries at the same time. In other words, if the Federal Reserve refuses to roll over the maturing bonds, or refuses to reinvest the interest payments they earn, then the Treasury will have to sell those bonds, too. They have to sell enough bonds to repay the Fed in addition to finance all the new borrowing.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/18/2017 • 38 minutes, 21 seconds
Tax Deal With Dems Won’t Stimulate Growth – Ep. 284
President Trump Courts Dems on Tax Reform
I think the catalyst for the rise in the stock market today is enthusiasm over President Trump's announcement that he is working with the Democrats and is close to a deal on tax cuts. So that if he can't get something done with the Republicans, he will get it done with the Democrats and, one way or another, he's going to accomplish this major tax reform.
Major Shift to Make Economy More Productive
But of course, it's not going to be tax reform; it's going to be tax cuts. Based on what the President is saying, we're not going to reform the tax code, we're not going to have a major shift that will make the economy more productive. The President has already said that the "rich", however he is going to end up defining rich, and I have feeling that "rich" might be a lot less income than people might believe, but he is saying that the rich are not getting a tax cut at all. They may even have a tax hike!
Growth Comes When You Lower Marginal Tax Rate
If you're not going to lower the top rate, if you're not going to reduce the marginal rate of tax, you're really not going to get any economic stimulus, because that's where the growth comes from. Growth comes when you lower the marginal rate and people have the incentive to work harder and product more taxable income, so that maybe the government can actually collect more taxes at a lower rate because there will be more income subject to tax. The reason is, the higher income workers need an incentive to continue to work harder in order to promote savings and investment. if the cost of working harder exceeds the cost of not working, people will choose leisure over productivity.
More Government Spending, Less Revenue
Now if the middle class tax bracket gets reduced a little bit, they probably will not have the incentive to work harder or generate more income or productivity. They will just pay a little less tax. I'm all for lower taxes, but only if we shrink government; only if we cut government spending. Nowhere is the President talking about that. In fact, what he is talking about is more government spending. I'm sure that any deal with the Democrats is going to involve increasing government spending on infrastructure, on hurricane disaster relief, on border security - whatever it is, it is going to be a giant bill that will result in more government spending and less revenue to pay for that spending
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/15/2017 • 42 minutes, 28 seconds
Risk On Includes U.S. Dollar – Ep. 283
A Huge Risk-On Day
The markets rallied all over the world. Everything was up. All the foreign markets - European markets, Asian markets, rallied. It was a huge risk-on day. Stocks went up and bonds got clobbered. Yields rose on government bonds, the 10-yr. out to the 30-yr.
Insurance Rates Going Up
There will be a lot of pressure on insurance companies to pay claims for both recent hurricanes and where's that money coming from? It's got to come from the markets. It is just not sitting there in a piggy bank. It is invested in stocks and bonds, so if they are going to pay claims, you would think that is a negative for the financial market as the insurance companies have to liquidate some of their portfolios, but not today!
Big Move Down for Gold
Risk-on, so you get rid of your safe assets, although I don't know why anyone would consider Treasuries safe, but everybody sold treasuries and bought U.S. stocks. They sold gold. Gold was down $19 today. This is the biggest one day move I've seen in a while. In fact, this $19 down move - gold has been moving up steadily to $1350 last week. I don't think I have ever seen a $19 up day.
Gold's Steady Climb
Gold's been going up slowly. $5, $7, $3; maybe there was one $10 day, I think, but it has been a very slow, steady climb on a wall of worry. And now, all of a sudden, we have a day where everybody is excited because the hurricane didn't do as much damage as it could have, and they all buy stocks. They dump gold and it goes down $19 in one day. Gold had been climbing before the hurricanes came around. and I don't think any of that gain was necessarily the result of the hurricanes. Had none of these hurricanes happened, gold could have been exactly where it was before today. Gold was rallying anyway.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/12/2017 • 40 minutes, 49 seconds
Blowing the Roof Off the Debt Ceiling
Trump said Government was Too Stupid
When Donald Trump was originally elected President, I was out there warning, that budget deficits under the Trump Presidency are going to be huge. Donald Trump never ran as a fiscal conservative or a Libertarian. He didn't say government was too big, he just said it was too stupid. He promised just to be smarter. He didn't say he would make government smaller, only that he would make it more efficient. He would do a better job of using big government than politicians who have held the office before him.
Trump Promised More Spending
So it was my feeling that a Trump Presidency was going to result in increasing the budget deficits that would be necessary to finance a bigger government. Also, Donald Trump never promised to cut government spending; cut entitlements. In fact, he promised the opposite. He promised not to touch entitlements, to allow them to continue to expand. He promised to spend more money on the military, more money on our vets, more money on infrastructure, more money to build a wall. So I knew all of this would result in bigger deficits.
"Gentlemen's Agreement" to Raise the Debt Ceiling
But now, my suspicions have been confirmed. Now we have news that Donald Trump has basically made a "gentlemen's agreement" with Chuck Schumer to repeal the debt ceiling completely. There has been some debate again about raising the debt ceiling, we have this charade every year or so, where everybody pretends that they might not raise the ceiling and they raise it anyway. We had a similar political theater going on until Donald Trump cut a deal with the Democrats to extend the last suspension of the debt ceiling for another 90 days. That's when we found out that they had also been working on this deal to eliminate the ceiling altogether.
Never Really Paying Off Bills
In recent years, the political spin has always been that lifting the debt ceiling is the politically, fiscally responsible thing to do. That America always pays her bills, and because we always pay our bills, we have to raise the debt ceiling. Ironically, they have it backwards. The reason they have to raise the debt ceiling is because America never pays her bills. If we paid our bills, we wouldn't have any debt.
Debt Ceiling was a Brake on Government Spending
What government wants to do is to continue to not pay the bills; to continue to borrow the money so that we can pretend to pay the bills. And the obstacle to increase debt is the debt ceiling. Of course, we always raise that ceiling every time we approach it, but the fact that the ceiling is there, must provide some type of brake on government spending.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/8/2017 • 29 minutes, 21 seconds
Hurricanes Rain On Market’s Parade – Ep. 282
Threats from Hurricane Irma and North Korea
After a long holiday weekend the DJIA fell 234 points this Tuesday. Finally we have some kind of negative reaction in the stock market to the bad news. Over the weekend we got news that North Korea had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb, and now we know that Hurricane Irma, which is now listed as a category 5 hurricane, is one of the biggest, if not the biggest hurricane ever in the Caribbean.
Anything Can Happen
It looks like it is going to go right by Puerto Rico; for those who may be concerned about me, I am Connecticut now, so my family and I are not on the island, but we certainly have property there and we are also very concerned about our neighbors and the people of Puerto Rico. It is not likely to be a direct hit, but anything can happen. It is projected to pass Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon.
Irma Threatens Caribbean Islands on Heels of Hurricane Harvey
The people of the Virgin Islands are going to suffer a similar fate. There are other Caribbean islands that will not be as fortunate; the hurricane is going to go right over them. Who knows where it is going to go after that? There is a state of emergency in Miami, in the keys, from Key West all the way to Key Largo. It is a massive hurricane with lots of potential damage on the heels of Hurricane Harvey.
We're Broke
And you know what? We're broke. Harvey is almost a $200 billion price tag, and I don't know what Irma will be, because the government will have to bail out Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. There is no way the government can deny them relief - they are American citizens. There was a lot of opposition to a Puerto Rican debt bailout but no one will be against giving money to Puerto Rico as a result of the hurricane.
Hurricane Aid for Puerto Rico instead of a Bailout
In fact, this could end up being a bonanza for Puerto Rico. They could end up getting a massive amount of aid all disguised as hurricane aid. They are talking now about power being out for 4-6 months in parts of the island because the government has so under-invested in the infrastructure - the government-owned power company. Maybe Puerto Rico will get a bunch of money in order to re-build that infrastructure as part of the hurricane bail-out money. So money they could not get from Congress because of fiscal troubles may come through another channel.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/6/2017 • 38 minutes, 35 seconds
Weak Jobs Report Doesn’t Rain on Market Parade – Ep. 281
Nonfarm Payroll Report Fails to Impress
Today is the first Day of September; and since it is the first day of a new month, and it is a Friday, we got the nonfarm payroll report. The consensus forecast was about 180,000 jobs. The number came in at 156,000, well below the consensus. To make it worse, they revised down the prior 2 months by about 20,000 jobs each. The unemployment rate notched up from its 16-year low. When Donald Trump, the candidate called 5% unemployment the greatest hoax on the American people, well, it's got to be an even greater hoax, now that it is 4.4%.
Donald Trump's Huge Reversal
I just put up a video on my YouTube channel, Donald Trump's Huge Reversal. I juxtaposed a lot of clips of Candidate Trump with President Trump. Candidate Trump talked about how terrible the economy and how the numbers are so phony and now he is embracing those same numbers, and of course it is the same with the stock market, calling it a big, fat ugly bubble. The stock market today continued to strengthen throughout the week, including in the aftermath of this weaker than expected nonfarm payroll number.
Some Silver Linings
Labor force participation held steady at 62.9, still very low. Average hourly earnings, which happened to be up .3% last month, the biggest gain we've seen in a while, in August it was up ,1% ; vert meager increases in average hourly earnings. A lot of that may have to do with the higher minimum wages - just talking about minimal amounts of money here. The average work week actually ticked down from 34.5 hours to 34.4 hours, so Americans working slightly more hours and getting barely more money.
Is This The Beginning of a New Trend?
This was a relatively weak report; there were 2 bright spots; there was that there was a decline in government workers and a better than expected increase in manufacturing. We did see an increase of 36,000 manufacturing jobs; a lot more than the expected 9,000. We do have a 2-month jump in manufacturing jobs. The question is, "Is this the beginning of a new trend?"Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/2/2017 • 36 minutes, 8 seconds
Gold Breaks Through $1,300 Resistance – Ep. 280
$1,300 Was a Coiled Spring Beneath the Market
We've been flirting with that $1300 level all year; I've been talking about all the resistance that was up there and every time the price of gold got near $1300 it was met with a tremendous amounts of selling, there was a lot of supply. But as I have been saying on this podcast, the demand was building. It was a coiled spring beneath the market. The channel was narrowing. The distance between the $1300 resistance and the support kept getting narrower and narrower. I thought it was only a matter of time before we exhausted that supply and broke through that psychological $1300 level.
The Rally Held Firm All Day
Gold is up about $18-19 on the day; we closed at about $1310. Finally, I think, there were people who were worried it wouldn't hold that level, people were thinking that we would sell off so we wouldn't quite get a close above $1300, we'd just get a trade above $1300. But the rally held firm all day long. We actually closed on the highs of the day. In fact, as I am recording this, the price of gold is taking another jump. Maybe it is the missile North Korea fired that went through Japanese airspace. We're tacking on another $10-11; we're now trading above $13.20.
The Dollar Is Now a Risk Asset
The dollar continued its weakness. It is one of the reasons that gold continues to be strong. The dollar index made new lows today, down around 92.20, and looking at the action so far in the early evening. The dollar is not benefitting at all from this flight to quality. We're seeing a big rise in the Japanese Yen, a big rise in the Swiss franc. Those are the go-to currencies. The dollar is now a risk asset. People don't buy the dollar when they're worried, they sell the dollar when they're worried. Even the Chinese Yuan - new high for the year.
Gold Now Going Up in Terms of Everything
Of course gold, now, is not only rising in terms of dollars, but finally rising in terms of everything. Gold is going up in yen terms, it's going up in Swiss franc terms, even though those currencies are rising as well. This is a key factor, and I think now that we have cleared out that resistance, there are a lot of people who thought there is no upside in gold. Well they're about to find out just how much upside there is.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/29/2017 • 24 minutes, 26 seconds
My Take on Joe Rogan Redo – Ep. 279
The Joe Rogan Experience Podcast
I appeared the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast while on my trip this week to the West Coast. I first appeared on his show about 3 years ago, and since then the popularity of his podcast has really exploded. A couple of million have already listened to my most recent appearance. I was on for 3 hours and I did almost all of the talking.
Huge Reaction to Minimum Wage Discussion
If you look at the YouTube video you'll see a tremendous amount of reactions, both positive and negative, which is a far greater reaction than the show usually gets. I could have set the record on thumbs down but I got more than 3 times the number of thumbs up. If you read the comments, many people are attacking me for being "mean" because I am against the minimum wage.
Why Am I Against the Minimum Wage?
This is the typical liberal reaction when they encounter someone who disagrees with the liberal agenda. They think I am out of touch, that I don't understand, I'm heartless, and they get so upset at me because they think I am a really bad guy. After all, only a really bad guy would want to exploit poor people by paying low wages. It would not dawn on them to think about why I am against the minimum wage.
Against Government Mandated Unemployment
I am not against people earning money; I am against mandated unemployment. I am against the government preventing people from acquiring the skills that would enable them to earn a lot more than the minimum wage in the future. Liberals don't consider any consequences - it's all about how good they feel about themselves. "Who actually cares about the consequences of this law, just as long as I can feel morally superior to anyone who doesn't support the minimum wage law?"
For Entry-Level Jobs that Provide Value to Employer
I did explain that, but apparently it went right over their heads. I am trying to explain that the minimum wage law leads to more unemployment because it causes people with low skills to lose the opportunity to move up in the workforce through entry-level jobs that provide value for the employer.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/26/2017 • 47 minutes, 7 seconds
Ben Shapiro Exposes Cenk Uygur’s Economic Ignorance – Ep. 278
Economic Ignorance
I happened to watch a YouTube video Politicon 2017 Live Stream Schapiro vs Uygur and I want to address only the part of the discussion which was about taxes. Ben Shapiro did a good job, but a much stronger case should be made about Uygur's statements which were economically ignorant.
False Logic
One of the points that Cenk Uygur made during the debate is that high taxes are good, that we have more prosperity with higher taxes, and lower taxes are bad for the economy. In his opinion, if the government takes money from the people who earn it and gives it to the people who don't earn it, everybody is going to be better off, including the people who are being taxed. He cited the 1950's as an example of U.S. economic prosperity, concluding that because income tax rates were 91% America was wealthy. This false logic. it is like eating a banana during a rainstorm and concluding that eating bananas causes rainfall.
The '50's and '60's Marked the End of American Prosperity
In fact the reason we were prosperous in the 1950's and 1960's is not because of high taxes during those decades, but how low they were taxed in the decades before that. Ben Shapiro's response to Uygur was that we won WWII and the rest of the world was decimated, which is true, but not an accurate response. The 1950's didn't just occur spontaneously.
Tax Rate Was Zero
We were wealthy and a mighty power before WWII. The standard of living in the '50's and '60s was a product of the 19th century, and the early 20th century when we had no taxes at all. The reason we created such a strong middle class was because we had no taxes. After the end of the civil war, from 1870 - 1913, which was the introduction of the income tax, the income tax rate was zero. That's the time of the industrial revolution. That's when all the immigrants were coming to America - the 1880's the 1890's, the 1900's. That's when all 4 of my grandparents came here. There were no taxes and massive economic growth when the tax rate was zero.
Camel's Nose Under the Tent
When they started the income tax in 1913, the top bracket was 7%. That's still very low, Initially they wanted to cap it at 10% and the reason they didn't is the objection was that the cap would encourage lawmakers to raise it to 10%. Unfortunately, they didn't cap it, and of course this was the camel's nose under the tent and the minute you had an income tax, congress couldn't resist the temptation to raise it.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/18/2017 • 35 minutes, 41 seconds
Freedom of Speech vs. the Thought Police – Ep. 277
Press Wants Freedom of Speech as Long as It Fits Their Agenda
One of the few rights left to us in this country is the freedom of speech. If we don't defend speech that we find offensive, someone else will find your speech offensive and move to silence you. Political correctness, is evolving into the Thought Police via the mainstream media. In particular, President Trump's reaction to the events in Charlottesville is being portrayed as a defense of White Nationalists over Black Lives Matter. Nothing is President Trump's remarks supports this story. President Trump, in the lobby of Trump Tower, was subjected to an inquisition by the Press, who intended to entrap the President and further their agenda to mischaracterize him and anyone who supports him.
Disrespecting Donald Trump and the Office of the President
I know very few members of the Press respect Donald Trump; this is clear. But they need to respect the office of the Presidency. Could you imagine members of the Press treating President Obama the way they are treating President Trump? Can you imagine the cries of racism? Of course, no member of the Press would dare show that type of disrespect to President Obama.
Condemning Violence on Both Sides
President Trump is refusing to denounce only the violence perpetrated by the White Nationalists without also mentioning that the Black Lives Matter group, who assembled without a permit, also engaged in violence. The Left is saying that President Trump has not denounced the White Nationalists enough. What the President said was that he was condemning the violence on both sides and that angered the left. They hold that the President should only condemn violence committed by the White Nationalists. That would be hypocritical.
Background on the Event
To give you a little background, the park, formerly named Robert E. Lee Park, was re-named Emancipation Park and the city was going to tear down the statue of Robert E. Lee that had presided over that park. So there was a local protest that the statue was coming down. It was coming down regardless of local protests. A local group wanted to protest the fact that this was happening. This group eventually got a permit although it was initially rejected. So they engaged in a legal protest to exercise their First Amendment rights. The counter protesters, who came in from out to town did not have a permit landed first physical blow.
Freedom of Speech is there for the Offensive Ideas
Are the ideas that the White Nationalists offensive? Yes. But it doesn't matter, because that is Freedom of Speech. It is there because of the offensive statements. See, nobody cares if you say something that makes everybody happy and doesn't offend anybody - you don't need freedom to do that. The scenario that the left is trying to spin and the media is playing right into it is that America is afraid to go anywhere near anything that would draw the ire of the politically correct thought police. We have a very tenuous grasp on the right of freedom of speech, and there is no doubt in my mind that this right is going to go.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/16/2017 • 53 minutes, 6 seconds
Bitcoin is a Digital Risk Asset, Not a Currency – Ep. 276
Speculative Asset
Bitcoin is a digital risk asset, not a currency. If you own bitcoin you have an asset, but it is not a safe haven. A safe haven is an asset that is not likely to go down in comparison to another speculative investment. Bitcoin has been extremely volatile; it happens to be going up, but the price is based on speculation. Does anybody believe that bitcoin has less downside risk than the stock market?
Not a Currency
Bitcoin is not used as currency. They trade in bitcoins for dollars or euros or yen to buy things, but very few legal goods and services are priced in bitcoin. Because the price is highly volatile and backed by nothing, it can not be used as a currency. It is being used as an asset. The number of top retailers who accept Bitpay is diminishing, not increasing. Merchants will try to make it easy to trade bitcoin for currency which would then buy goods and services. Most people who own bitcoin are not spending them; they are hoarding them because they think they are going to keep going up.
Just Noise
At the end of the day, the realized gains from speculation in bitcoin are going to be overshadowed by the speculative losses. All the rest of it is just noise. The realized profits will be concentrated on a small group of people, whereas the realized losses will be dispersed among a larger population.
Reversing the Consequences
Bitcoin will end up achieving the opposite of its original goal, which was to challenge the power of central government, to disrupt money, that is would rein in government and have real commodity money in the same way FedEx upended the Post Office or Uber upended taxis. This is going to give more power to government, because when digital currencies collapse, the central bankers will say, "We told you so! This is what happens when you allow the free market to do what government should do. When the free market creates money it leads to disaster. You have to stick with currencies backed by government. "
No Joke
The original currencies that were created by the private sector, and not by government were issued by banks and backed by gold. Today, the private sector could issue digital currency backed by gold just like paper currency backed by gold. What gave the paper currency value was the gold backing. If any bank tried to issue paper currency backed by nothing, it would have been laughed out of existence. It would have been a joke, except now it's not a joke. People actually want digital currency backed by absolutely nothing.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/14/2017 • 47 minutes, 45 seconds
Trump’s Saber Rattles Markets – Ep. 275
Fire and Fury Not Strong Enough
Donald Trump's saber-rattling against North Korea continues. Yesterday the President was asked to clarify his statement about the "fire and fury" and he came out and said that that wasn't strong enough; he was really sugar-coating it. What he really means is something worse - if anything his statement was not strong enough. Again, today Trump issued another threat that N. Korea had better be careful, if they say anything if they will regret it big time, so the level of rhetoric is rising.
A Legend in Trump's Mind
He was talking about the booming economy, the stock market at record highs, employment surging, all these jobs coming back. He is spinning this ridiculous phony story about a recovery that doesn't exist. Just as I pointed out he took credit for building up our nuclear armament to a level higher than it has ever been - all this is happening, unfortunately, in Donald Trump's mind.
Volatility Up
There was a big down day in the markets; it dropped over 200 points yesterday; there was a small bounce back today - the Dow was up about 14, not a major recovery, But if you look at the Vix, which is a measure of fear, a measure of volatility, it was near the lows, below 10 mid-week and it spiked all the way up to 16 yesterday, which is the highest it has been since April. It looks like it is above a key moving average on a weekly chart, so that shows a heightened risk in the market.
Dollar No Safe Haven
Interestingly enough, the dollar index closed near the lows of the day, just at around 93 even. It is down on the week. In fact, this is the lowest weekly close for the dollar index for the entire year. Now, you would expect the dollar to have some kind of a safe haven bounce with all of the saber-rattling - all of the worries about nuclear war. Typically, you would get money going into the dollar. I guarantee you, if the circumstances were the same a year ago, there would have been a big rally in the dollar this week. But not now.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/11/2017 • 38 minutes, 28 seconds
Income Not Received Should Not be Taxed – Ep. 274
Elimination of Deductions for State and Local Tax - "SALT"
Tax reform is the one remaining 2018 Republican campaign issue, and the argument over "SALT", or the elimination of deductions for state and local taxes. In general that would be state income tax or state property tax. In some states that do not have income tax, you are allowed to deduct your sales tax, although that is a more complicated deduction. In the wealthier states on both coasts, tax payers rely on those deductions.
The Mortgage Tax Deduction Restricts the Free Market
No one wants to get rid of the home mortgage deduction, but that is a much better deduction to eliminate, as it does more damage to the economy. The politically popular mortgage interest deduction is aimed at altering behavior, rather than to let the free market work independently. The real beneficiary of the mortgage tax deduction is not the home buyer but the house seller. There are many predominately Democratic states with high taxes but I don't buy argument in favor of eliminating that deduction.
Why Should the Federal Government Subsidize the State Government?
The argument is, why should the Federal government subsidize state government? If a state wants to have a high income tax, then, its citizens get to deduct that income tax from their Federal taxes and therefore, they don't feel the full burden of the tax, because some of it is absorbed by the Federal government. As a result of this, tax payers in high tax states are more receptive to those high taxes because they get a tax break on their Federal tax returns. If they could not deduct these taxes, there would be a bigger pushback on the state level.
Federal Government Taxing Unearned Income
If we are going to have an income tax, we have to tax the actual income. For example, if you earn $100,000, and let's say you live in a state with a flat 10% income tax, then they pay $10,000 in taxes. Did they earn $100,000 for $90,000? I would say they earned $90,000. Now if the Federal government does not want to give a deduction on the state income tax, they should not tax you on income you never earned. I don't think that's Constitutional. You can't be taxed on money that didn't come to you. The money paid to the state in taxes is not a voluntary donation. It is taken by force.
No Double Tax
If you go back to the origins of the first Federal income taxes exempted tax paid to the states, it was because the Federal government respected the sovereignty of the states to tax the people first. If you allow the Federal government to ignore state taxes, theoretically they could place an income tax so high that you would have nothing left between the state and Federal tax burden. I would not allow the government to double tax anything, because it is diminishing the power of the state.
Defer Income Tax to Employers
Here's another thing that no one in Congress is addressing: the states can get around this. Let's say they pass a law that says you can't deduct your state income taxes from your Federal income tax. In the previous example, the taxpayer pays taxes on $10,000 he never earned. What if the state then repeals the state income tax on wages and salaries and in its place, imposes a payroll tax on employers? So that, instead of an employee getting paid $100,000 and paying $10,000 in taxes, the payroll tax causes the employer to pay a state tax that would then reduce the salary of the employee by that much. That payroll tax would be deductible for the employer as an expense. So all the states would have to do is change the way they tax wages and salaries and the net effect would be no change for the individual worker. This would deprive the Federal government of all the extra money they think they are going to get by removing the state income tax deduction.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/10/2017 • 31 minutes, 46 seconds
Trump Hypocrisy on Jobs Raises Concerns – Ep. 273
Trump Jumps to Tweet on Mediocre Jobs Numbers
This morning the Labor Department released the July Non Farm Payroll numbers and Donald Trump tweeted,"Excellent Jobs Numbers just released - and I have only just begun." Many job stifling regulations continue to fall. Movement back to USA!" What is excellent about these numbers? If you look at the household survey reveals that we created 393,000 part time jobs during the month, and we lost 54,000 full time jobs. Candidate Trump complained about these types of numbers. He talked about the proliferation of part time jobs and the loss of full time jobs on the campaign trail, yet now, it's "excellent news!".
Small Rise in Manufacturing Jobs
Although the report was not a disaster, it was not greater than many we've seen under the Obama Administration. The expectation was for a gain of 178,000 and we beat it. We came out with 209,000, which is really not a lot of jobs. Given the size of the American economy, creating 200,000 jobs in a month is really not a lot of jobs. But exceeding this rather low bar gives rise to over-exuberant headlines over a strong jobs report. In fact they did revise last month's gain of 222,000 up to 231,000 and this month's was better than estimates. The unemployment rate did tick back down to 4.3; remember it jumped up to 4.4 and now it's back down to 4.3. We did gain 16,000 in manufacturing jobs and they did revise upward last month's gain from 1,000 to 12,000, so that is somewhat good news, although as a percentage of the overall jobs, it is small.
What's the Real Unemployment Rate?
The Labor force participation rate did ratchet up one tenth, back to 62.9; still very low. Wages rose .3% meeting expectations, and most numbers remained status quo. It's not a disaster of a report but it is not spectacular. We had plenty similar reports under Obama, which were previously labeled "fraud". The unemployment rate is low, and candidate Trump was saying, "The real unemployment rate is closer to 49%". What's the real unemployment rate now?
Are the Numbers B.S.?
The question is, "Was candidate Donald Trump being honest? Did he really believe the numbers were phony or was he just saying that?" Or, was he being dishonest as a candidate and is he being honest as a president? Was he and honest candidate or was he being dishonest? Does he realize that these numbers are B.S. yet embracing them anyway to feather his own nest, when the economy is behaving exactly as it did when Obama was President.
Counting Jobs Twice
If you look at the jobs, about 40% of the jobs created were in leisure and hospitality, which was the #1 category, and then healthcare and education. We have record numbers of people now tending bar and waiting tables, although these are probably part time workers being counted multiple times as Obamacare drove away full time employment.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/5/2017 • 32 minutes, 25 seconds
Dow Tops 22K but Market’s Foundation Has Cracks – Ep. 272
Trump Takes Credit for Dow Jones 22K
We have an all-time high in the Dow Jones today, closing above 22K for the first time ever. Donald Trump did not tweet about this today, although yesterday he did put out a tweet that the market was about to hit 22,ooo; of course he is claiming credit for it. In fact he pointed out in his tweet that when he was elected, the Dow was 18,000 and not it is 4,000 points higher and of course he is claiming credit for it. He says the media is ignoring it. They are reporting on the record highs, but believe me, when the Dow starts falling the media is going to pay a lot more attention to the declines than they do to the rises, especially when the Dow starts falling the media is going to pay a lot more attention to the declines because Trump has already branded this market with his moniker.
Bad Economic News Did not Dampen Stock Market
Donald Trump did put out a tweet in which he was bragging about wages rising. I don't know what Donald Trump is looking at - we got the personal income and spending numbers yesterday, and June income was flat. They were looking for a gain of .4 and instead they got a flat number. That was the weakest number for personal income growth since November - the month Donald Trump won the election. He's talking about the wage gains, where are they? They don't show up in personal income, and most people's income is comprised of wages.This weak economic news didn't stop the stock market from making new highs today. Of course, Apple was the main reason - it had almost a 5% gain.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/3/2017 • 34 minutes, 26 seconds
Skinny Repeal was a Fat Lie – Ep. 271
Obamacare Repeal Charade Over
The whole charade surrounding the repeal of Obamacare is finally over. The most recent attempt, labeled "Skinny Repeal" was a big fat lie. They weren't really repealing anything, leaving the essence of Obamacare and accelerating Obamacare's death spiral. If Congress had repealed the employer mandates and the individual penalties but left everything else the same, then the number of healthy people making the irrational decision not to buy insurance would skyrocket and the sick people who would still be buying, would be facing higher and higher premiums and costing insurance companies bigger and bigger losses to be subsidized by the taxpayer.
Let the Democrats Own the Disaster
Many Republicans are upset with John McCain, for being one of the 3 Republicans to join all the Democrats in opposing the bill. I think McCain did the GOP a favor. This bill, if passed, would have let the Democrats off the hook. They would have not owned Obamacare, and they would be responsible for its failure. Now we all know Obamacare is still there, it is exactly the way it was passed, the bill President Obama championed and signed, the one that Nancy Pelosi said, "We have to pass it to see what is in it." We passed it, we know what is in it (although most people do not understand what is in it) and it is a disaster.
Late last year most people thought the Republicans were going to repeal it - everybody but me. I didn't think that they had the guts to do it. I had this interview on Russia Today in mid-January, it's up on my YouTube Channel; the title is, "Peter Schiff Very Skeptical of Obamacare Repeal". If you watch that video you will see that I say, "I don't think they're going to repeal it."
No Guts to Repeal
Of course, everybody thought, "of course they are going to repeal it. They've been campaigning on it for years!" The President promised it. Everybody who has run for office as a Republican says, "Elect me and I am going to get rid of Obamacare!". They voted to repeal it many times when Obama was still President. And, of course, every time they voted to repeal it, Obama vetoed it, which of course, the Republicans knew was going to happen. As it turns out, that was the only reason they had the guts to repeal it because they knew it wouldn't actually happen. I knew that the Republicans would have a tough time taking away the free lunch. I knew that a lot of them were promising to repeal but keep the ban on pre-existing conditions and I knew that was impossible. Pre-existing conditions is the very essence of Obamacare. You can't repeal it and preserve it at the same time.
The Stock Market Has Not Gotten the Message
The stock market, however, still doesn't understand the significance. It hit another record high again today. The Dow was up, it closed at a new high today. The NASDAQ and the S&P were down. The transports managed a slight bounce from yesterday's drubbing. Transports were down around 300 points yesterday. Again, more cracks in the armor for the stock market. Look at what happened to Starbucks today. The latest victim of declining retail sales; it was down around 9% today. They reduced their guidance based on a drop in sales, now I don't know if you can blame this on people buying their coffee on Amazon.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/29/2017 • 44 minutes, 41 seconds
Dollar Falls as Balance Sheet Shrinkage Doubts Rise – Ep. 270
Summary:
The Dow and the NASDAQ set new record highs today as the dollar sold off near the end of the day to close at yet another low for the year. Remember, the dollar index rallied 6% between the election and the Trump inauguration. It has now fallen more than 10% since inauguration. Many currencies are at two-year highs. The Australian dollar is at a 2-year high, certain commodities are at a 2-year high, copper broke to a 2-year high; oil prices have been strong. Oil was up about $.80 today after being up about $2 yesterday. We're now above $48.50. Getting close to $50/barrel again.
Federal Reserve: "No Hike"
One of the reasons for the strength in commodities is the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The catalyst for the weakness in the dollar today is the Federal Reserve, the FOMC, concluded their 2-day meeting today; their press release came out at 2.30pm ET and they announced that they did not decide to raise interest rates during this meeting. Nobody expected the Fed to raise interest rates, which is one of the reasons why they didn't.
Balance Sheet Normalization?
There was some anticipation that the Federal Reserve may be more specific concerning when it might start quantitative tightening or 'balance sheet normalization' as they call it. So people wanted to know when that would start, and by how much are they going to let their balance sheet to run down but the Fed did not allude to any specifics. All they said is that the process will begin relatively soon. Now the last time they put out a statement, they said it would begin this year. Now they are saying it will begin 'Relatively soon'. Why didn't they leave it at "this year"? Because "this year" would be within the next six months. "Relatively Soon" leaves the statement comfortably vague enough to fit within the Fed's slippery parameters.
Gold Hanging In There
The markets didn't know what to do for the first half hour, but eventually the dollar broke, and gold finally popped up; it was up around $11-12. It was about unchanged going into the announcement and the knee-jerk reaction was a $2-3 selloff, then it came back to unchanged and then we had the rally. Gold stocks had a pretty good day today; the GDX up about 2.5%; the junior minors doing a little bit better. Yet these stocks have barely moved this year, but this is just getting started.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/27/2017 • 30 minutes, 51 seconds
Lessons From Vegas Don’t Stay in Vegas – Ep. 269
Summary:
My recent trip to Las Vegas for The Freedom Fest provided some interesting lessons. My observations that we are paying more for less were illustrated by the theft of my luggage, as there are no more luggage security checkers in baggage claim exits. Also, for the first time, major Las Vegas hotels are charging from $15 - $18 for parking. This is causing hotel valet workers to lose money, as customers are less likely to leave a generous tip (or any tip) if they are already paying quite a bit to park. So the Las Vegas experience is changing; we're getting less for more money. Prices are going up and wages are going down.
Taking Credit for Phony Statistics
This is the real U.S. economy. Forget about all these phony U.S. statistics. The real world reflects the truth about the economy and why Donald Trump is President. I wish candidate Trump would come back; I would rather see the President questioning phony government statistics instead of embracing them. I'd like to see the President talking about the stock market being a bubble rather than a bull market and claiming credit for the increase.
Weakness in U.S. Dollar
The big story is the continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, in fact this morning the dollar index hit a new low for the year. It's now back in positive territory as I am recording this podcast, but the low this morning was 93.64 on the dollar index. Remember, the dollar index rose about 6% between the election of Donald Trump and the Inauguration, and the reason for the rally was the optimism for economic growth as a result of tax cuts, de-regulation, fiscal stimulus and a tighter Fed.
Senate Backing Away From Repeal
At the time, I argued that that was nonsense, and so far I am being vindicated. We're six months into the Trump Presidency and nothing has happened. They haven't even been able to repeal Obamacare, nor are they going to. The Senate already backed away from the version that I said would not work. Trump did a press conference yesterday talking about Obamacare, assuring everybody that pre-existing ban is going to stay. The very essence of Obamacare is that insurance companies can't charge sick people more for insurance than they charge healthy people. That's the essence of Obamacare that doesn't work and that's what Donald Trump and many Republicans want to preserve.
Preserving the Essence of Obamacare
Of course, in order to achieve that goal, they had to have employer mandates and penalties. These are the only things the Republicans want to get rid of. But they want to preserve the very essence of Obamacare and that's the mandates and penalties were designed to deliver. So now they have to come up with another way to deliver the promise of Obamacare.
Currency Markets Get the Message
The point is, the currency markets have figured this out. The dollar has dumped better than 10% since the Inauguration, but the stock market has made new highs. The Dow Jones is at a new high today; the NASDAQ hit a new high yesterday, so it's a disconnect. The initial rally in the stock market happened for the same reason the dollar rallied. The currency traders have connected the dots. What's the problem with the stock traders? Why are they oblivious?
Dollar Weakness Spark Commodities
The weakness in the dollar is also sparking a rally in multinationals, in commodities. Look at the move today in Freeport-McMoRan a major copper producer; that stock is up better than 13%. Oil prices are coming back up; oil is up better than a dollar today. Emerging markets are strong.
Bullish Conditions for Emerging Markets
I have been saying that a weak dollar is extremely bullish for commodities. Why?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/25/2017 • 36 minutes
Weak Data Sinks Dollar But Floats Stocks Ep. 268
Summary:
More weak economic data today sent the U.S. stock market to record highs; at least the Dow and the S&P hit new records. NASDAQ not quite, but very close. The dollar hit a new low for the year. The dollar index, settling in at 95.10, right on the low for the day. That's down .63. Some of the other currencies are strong.
Aussie Dollar Strong
The Aussie dollar was up about 1.3% on the day; one of the strongest of the currencies today. The Aussie dollar is very close to a 2-year high. The Canadian dollar was very strong this week on the back of a rate increase by the Bank of Canada. But the dollar falling across the board.
Foreign Stock Gain
Foreign stocks did better than U.S stocks, given their tailwind from appreciating currencies. Gold prices were up just over $11. Given the weakness in the dollar and the weak economic data, gold should be moving up a lot more than it is; I still think there is still a lot of short selling going on, but I smell the mother of all short squeezes coming. Silver is up about .30; back up to $16. remember was a low as $15.10 earlier in the week.
Dollar Index Weakening
The dollar index index at 95.10, just down over 7% on the year. It ended last year just above 1.02. In fact, in January, hit almost 1.04, so we're down 8-1/2% since the January high, and the year is only half over. So I think there is a lot more momentum coming, especially in light of the economic data I'm about to get to.
Retail Sales Disappoint
The big report was the Retail Sales numbers, were supposed to bounce back from May's -.3, and they did manage to revise that to down only .1%;but instead of getting a .1% rebound we had another drop. We had -.2% in June, so that is back-to back declines. In fact that is 3 consecutive months of falling retail sales. The picture gets worse when you strip out car autos. Last month, we got -.3%. That was unrevised. They were looking for June to be +.2% - instead we were down another .2%. And if you strip out gasoline, it's even worse than that. They were looking for +4% and we got -.1%. So very very weak retail sales. This was supposed to be the quarter of the big bounce back! How are we going to bounce back in GDP without retail sales?
Consumer Prices Weaker
We also got consumer prices that actually came out weaker than expected. That is supposedly bad news, the way the Fed spins it, because the Fed's trying to get higher inflation, at least the way the CPI measures it. They were supposed to get an increase of .1% for consumer prices following last month's .1% decline and instead we came in unchanged. Year over year CPI, up 1.6% vs an estimate of 1.7%, and core, stripping out food and energy, they were looking for +.2%. instead we were up .1%
Janet Yellen Wants More Inflation
So when Janet Yellen testified before Congress earlier in the week, the only thing she expressed concern about is that inflation is not high enough. She does not seem concerned at all about the weakness in the economy.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/15/2017 • 31 minutes, 21 seconds
Market Ringing Lots of Bells:Ep. 267
Summary:
There are market indicators of a major top as illustrated by the Blue Apron IPO, as it represents the failure of a very weak company attempting to raise money my means of an IPO when the market may have lost its steam. The stock is trading at $7.14, down from its initial $10/share offering. Wall Street has lost control of this IPO. A smaller bank actually issued a price target of $2/share. The point is that they brought the IPO to the market and they could not keep the air in the bubble. SnapChat, another Wall Street darling, went public at $17 not too long ago and although it had a big pop initially up to $29, now trades at about half that price. The point is that this process is coming unglued. The inability of Wall Street to maintain the air in these bubble stocks is an indication that we're nearing the end of this bull market.
The Yellen Put May Have Expired
The only way the Fed might be about to extend the bubble market is by changing its tune. As I said in my last podcast, I don't know if that Yellen put is still there. It may have expired with the election of Donald Trump. We know that the Fed wanted to prop the market up during the Obama Presidency; that was clearly their goal. But, especially since Trump has wrapped his presidency in the market's recent upswing, the Fed's willingness to risk credibility may be waning. The Fed may have a greater tolerance for lower stock prices. The Fed will, however step in if they see weakness in Wall Street spill over to Main Street.
Commodities and Emerging Markets
Commodities are looking good, despite the recent dip in oil, gold and silver. Base metal stocks are rising, emerging markets are continuing to pick up, especially those markets that are big exporters of commodities. So, beneath the surface we are starting to see a rotation into these commodity-sensitive, inflation-sensitive sectors.
Golden Opportunity in Silver
Meanwhile the headlines are still all about the drop gold and silver. I recorded a video blog on Monday morning; silver was down almost to $15. It has just bounced off that low as I recorded the video. At SchiffGold, we were able to organize a great deal from one of our suppliers on silver. The ratio of the price of gold to the price of silver was near 80:1, which is about as cheap as silver is going to get, relative to gold. Historically, it is a great buying opportunity. We were able to lock up this deal where we have a limited quantity of junk silver bags we're offering to our clients at $1.25 over the spot price of silver. Sometimes these bags are scarce.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/12/2017 • 28 minutes, 36 seconds
Another Weak Jobs Report Portrayed as Strong – Ep. 266
Summary:
There wasn't much of a market reaction to this Nonfarm Payroll report; the dollar index was only up .2% on the day. It closed up flat on the week. The Canadian dollar closed at a 10-month high against the dollar. Also bond prices continue to fall; this is a bad week if you own bonds, worldwide. Yields are rising across the board. The trend looks like we are about to break down in the bond market and break out in yield.
Gold Market
I think it is the weakness in bonds and the backup in yields that is one reason the gold market has been acting as weak as it has. There is still a false perception that rising interest rates are bad for gold. That, coupled with the fact that the dollar has been falling recently and gold has not been rising (meaning gold prices are falling in terms of other currencies) is causing a breakdown in the charts, resulting in selling. Even North Korea's recent successful ICBM testing did not cause gold to catch a bid.
Silver Dropped
Early last night, around the opening of the Japanese stock market, there was a bit of a flash crash in silver. Silver prices dropped abruptly by about fifty cents an ounce within a second. The market quickly recovered but then re-tested those lows. Silver was down over .40 today in the U.S. market. It didn't open down that soft, but it traded lower all day. The price of silver hit a new 52-week low.
Gold Stocks Signalling a Reversal
I have been talking about the relative strength of the gold miners in the face of this correction and once again, the GDX, which is an index of gold stocks, was only down 1.3% on the day, which is not a big drop, considering the price of gold was down by 1% on the day and the price of silver was down close to 3% on the day. I think this is a good sign for a reversal.
A Weaker Japanese Yen
Another reason for the recent weakness in gold and silver prices has to do with the weakness in the Japanese yen. While the U.S dollar has been losing ground against other currencies, it has actually been gaining ground against the yen. I am not sure why, or for how long this relationship is going to hold, but there has been a very close correlation between the price of gold and silver and the exchange rate between the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen.
Printing Yen to Prevent Interest Rates From Rising
The yen was weak overnight particularly because of the global rise in yields above a level where the JGB has drawn a line in the sand. It is basically committed to printing an infinite amount of Japanese yen to keep buying those JGB's to prevent interest rates from rising. Why is the Bank of Japan determined to keep interest rates from rising? Because of the enormity of the Japanese government debt. If interest rates go up, there is not way to service that debt. The choice is default or runaway inflation, and they are choosing the latter. So, last night during all this selling in global bonds, including the JGB, there was massive intervention to support the bond market. That meant the printing of a lot of Yen. It is possible that this is the catalyst that drove down the price of silver and gold.
Risk-On/Risk Off Trade
One reason for the correlation between the yen and gold has to do with the risk-on/risk-off trade, where both the Japanese yen and gold are seen as the safe-haven assets. Therefore, when investors want to take risk off, they buy gold and they buy the yen and that may be one of the reasons that the two have been moving together. Once they start to move together and form a relationship, traders start to key off of it. So if they see weakness in the yen, they sell gold, and if they see strength in the yen they buy gold.
Rising Interest Rates are Positive for Gold
One of the reasons interest rates are rising in the world is because inflation is picking up. Higher inflation is positive for gold, it is the most bullish factor for gold.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/8/2017 • 29 minutes, 26 seconds
What It Means To Be An American – Ep. 265
Summary:
One of the key differences between Americans and citizens of other countries is that in most nations of the world, individuals gradually won freedoms and privileges from a monarchy. In the U.S., however, we started with all of our rights. Then, Americans created government by surrendering some of their power, empowering government. These rights are spelled out in Article 1 Section 8 of the Constitution.
Free Stuff Rather Than Freedom
We have government not to give us stuff, but to secure our freedom. Americans today really don't want freedom. They want free stuff. When the government gives you something they take away your choice; they tell you what you are going to get and how you are going to get it. When the government gives you something, however, they must take away from someone else, diminishing that person's freedom.
Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution
The Constitution created a Federal Government. Prior to the Constitution we were organized under the Articles of the Confederation. But the framers of the Constitution wanted the government to have a little more power. All of the powers of the Federal Government are contained in Article 1, Section 8, and it's not a big section. It has 18 enumerated powers.
Government Powers vs. State Powers
The Constitution is written in two ways: it grants powers to the Federal Government and it denies powers to the states. You know that by reading the 10th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, The Bill of Rights ,which lays out how the Constitution is organized, and that the Federal Government has only the powers expressly granted. The states retain certain powers owned prior to the formation of the Federal government. So, if the Constitution did not specifically prohibit the states from doing something, they could do it.
Ignoring the Constitution
We know what the Constitution means because its writing is clear. Today they say the Constitution needs to be interpreted - that the Supreme Court is there to "interpret the Constitution". The Constitution is not written in Chinese - it is written in plain English. The Constitution needs to be applied and enforced. When people are talking about interpreting the Constitution they are really talking about ignoring the Constitution and to impart meaning that doesn't exist.
The Federalist Papers
If you look back at the Federalist Papers, at what the founders of the Constitution wrote about the meaning of the document, particularly James Madison, in Federalist Paper #45. If you don't know what the Federalist Papers are, or you've never read them, they are a collection of articles, written at the time the Constitution was being ratified, to generate understanding and support. The authors were James Madison, Alexander Hamilton and John Jay.
Here is a quote from Madison, who was considered to be the "Father of the Constitution":
The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government, are few and defined. Those which are to remain in the State governments are numerous and indefinite. The former will be exercised principally on external objects, as war, peace,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Summary
Independence Day is a great American holiday, but it fills me with joy and sadness. I love to commemorate what America was, and the whole idea of what made America different. Once we declared our independence in 1776 the people created a government. We the people had all the power and we surrendered some of our power to form a limited government. The government was a creation of the people and they ceded some power to the government. This was unique. As a result of this limited government, this uniquely American way of life, America prospered and created the wealthiest country in the history or the world. So we celebrate the beginning of this experiment in freedom and limited government. Benjamin Franklin famously responded to the question, "What have you given us, Mr. Franklin?": "A republic, if you can keep it." We have become what the founding fathers feared most, a democracy.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/6/2017 • 27 minutes, 19 seconds
Blue Apron: All That’s Missing is the Sock Puppet – Ep. 263
Summary:
Blue Apron Holdings IPO
The Blue Apron Holdings IPO today is reminiscent of the dot com boom. The market is saying the 5-year old company is worth close to $2 billion. This IPO represents a "down round" which may occur after a company suffers a decline in valuation after it has received initial rounds of capital investment. The initial offering was $10/share, and by the closing bell it only managed to close at $10. This stock may go below $10 as early as tomorrow, as many investors were planning to flip the stock. The concept of this company is not proprietary; indeed the recent merger of Amazon and Whole Foods could pose a serious market threat to this company.
Rand Paul
In more news on this ever-evolving Republican Health Care saga. the Republicans are caving in to media and left spins the Republican Healthcare bill as a re-distribution of wealth from the poor to the rich. You are not taking from the poor by stealing less from the rich. For some reason, the voting public expects American profit-seeking companies to sell insurance to people who are already sick. This would be the equivalent of selling home insurance for a house that has already burned, or car insurance for a car that has just been in an accident. Rand Paul is getting a lot of press recently because he is the only Republican who opposes this on principle. He believes in the freedom for Americans to purchase the kind of insurance they need. They can pick their deductible; they can pick their co-pay. They can have the freedom to buy or not to buy health insurance. But this can only happen in a market where insurance companies are allowed to make a profit and are free to compete for insurance business without government intervention.
U.S. Dollar Continues Decline
* The U.S dollar continued its decline today falling to a fresh 8-month low, closing to about 95.60
* The dollar is being led lower by a surging euro; the euro is actually at a 12-month high against the U.S. dollar
* Trading just below 114.5
* It wasn't too long ago the euro was down around 105, and there was a lot of talk about parity with the dollar
* I was saying that the euro has bottomed; that the euro is going to rise
* And the rise is just now beginning for the euro, I think there's a lot more to this move
* Other currencies are also following the euro's lead, but ultimately I think they will surpass it
* The dollar has a substantial ill-gotten gain that it needs to surrender
* The dollar got bid up for years based on a misunderstanding of the true state of the U.S. economy
* Of the efficacy of Fed monetary policy
* The market was factoring in far more rate hikes than the Fed was capable of delivering
* Meanwhile the economy is rolling over
* I mentioned on my last podcast Mario Draghi's statement about the deflationary threat subsiding
* About the drop in inflation being transitory and the euro rose on that
* The very next day, the ECB went out to do damage control
* Why is it "damage" when the currency is going up?
Strength in Financial Markets
* The only segment of the market that was strong today were the financials
* The banks feel they are going to benefit from higher interest rates, higher spreads
* And here, we had those bogus stress tests where the Federal Reserve supposedly stress-tested all the banks
* And, what to you know? The all passed
* So that is creating a bid for the banks
* I have said this before, when it comes to higher interest rates and banks, be careful what you wish forPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Summary:
Once again the solution doesn't work. As with the Democrats' solution, the penalties are too low. In both the House and the Senate, trying to force people to buy insurance won't work because the penalty for not buying insurance is not stiff enough. The reason they aren't doing that is, politically, it is a losing proposition. This is why the Republicans never should have touched this issue. If they did not have the guts for outright repeal, they should have never done anything. They should have left it alone and the Democrats would have owned this disaster. The best thing the Republicans can do, politically, is do nothing. In this way any collapse cannot be attributed to ambiguity in the market.
Downward Pressures on the Dollar
* Very big day in the market today; the most significant being the breakdown in both the NASDAQ composite and the U.S dollar.
* The dollar was down sharply and broadly today, led lower by a rally in the euro
* The catalyst for the euro rise was statements by Mario Draghi early in the morning where he commented that downward pressures on inflation were transitory
* A somewhat hawkish stance on inflation and the markets took that to mean that QE will come to an end sooner rather than later
* But I think the markets are looking for any reason to trade the dollar lower
* I have been talking about that on this podcast, that the dollar has been looking weak
* It broke down again today, the dollar index down just over 1 full percentage point on the day
* The dollar trading at its lowest level in 8 months
* I think this was the lowest closing level in about 9 months
* The euro is trading at a 113 handle
NASDAQ Woes
* At the same time the dollar was breaking down, so were tech stocks, the FANG stocks were particularly weak
* The NASDAQ composite down just over 100 points on the day
* That's a pretty big move; a 1.6% decline
* The Dow was only down about 100 points, just under a half percent
* So the NASDAQ experienced about triple the decline
* I talked about that on this podcast a couple of episodes ago when we had that one really big reversal day in the NASDAQ stocks
* When the NASDAQ stocks made an all-time record high and then closed negative
* We had that kind of flash crash coming into the final hour of trading
* To me, there was some big money that decided to get out of those stocksPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/28/2017 • 36 minutes, 27 seconds
Senate Plan Makes ObamaCare Worse – Ep. 261
Summary:
Let the SS ObamaCare Ship Sink
The Republicans in the Senate finally unveiled their version of ObamaCare Repeal & Replace. It's very heavy on replace, but there really isn't any repeal. They are replacing it with something that may even be worse. Regardless, we still should let the ObamaCare ship sink while it's called the SS ObamaCare.
Senate Bill Leans Toward Socialized Medicine
The House already passed their version. The Senate version is even worse; it takes away all penalties for not buying insurance. At least the House version tried to create some kind of penalty. Now, a penalty of any sort would not be necessary if the government did not mandate insurance companies to cover people with preexisting conditions. The only way insurance companies can survive, if the Senate bill were enacted, is with massive government (taxpayer) subsidies.
Moral Hazard
Of course the Senate does not consider the moral hazard of offering a "medical bill-paying service", so the cost will be enormous. This solution will collapse the health insurance industry and lead to socialized medicine. If the Senate Republicans really want socialized medicine, they should just come out and say it. If you don't believe in the free market, just come out and say it.
Something For Nothing
If the government can deliver healthcare cheaper and better than the free market, then why not socialize everything? Republicans are afraid to say that they don't believe this because they want to get elected and they know that the voters don't understand that capitalism works. They just want something for nothing. The Senators want to get elected so they are going to provide it for them.
* It was a relatively quiet week, this week; not a lot of market-driven data
* Next week, things might pick up a bit; we'll get the final week of Q2
* So I have a feeling there may be a little more action as some of the portfolio managers look to window-dress a bit or get their portfolios looking better for the end of Q2
* The dollar finished the week on a down note, although it was relatively flat on the week; it was down today
* The opposite for gold
* Up about $6.50; it was also flat on the week, but it had a good day
* Gold stocks were not flat; I think the gold stocks, as a group, the best performing sector in the market
* I have been noting on this podcast that these stocks have been trading better
* When they were weak, that precipitated the correction in the price of gold
* Then gold bottomed out when the gold stocks showed some relative strength
* That has continued, and I think this was a pretty good week, technically
* We're close to getting above some key resistance on these stocks
* So we will see what kind of bid they can pick up next week as we wrap up Q2
* I think the significant thing, for the dollar and for gold
* Is that the dollar is in the process of putting in a very significant top
* The flip side of that is that gold will be putting in a significant bottom
* I think the catalyst for breakdowns for the dollar and breakouts in gold
* Will be some realization, some capitulation on the part of the markets
* And for the Fed to square perception with realityPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/24/2017 • 44 minutes, 53 seconds
All Tax Cuts Are Temporary – Ep. 260
Summary: Every tax cut is temporary. Ryan's premise that we can't get the stimulus we need without a permanent tax cut is complete nonsense. Congress has no idea what the budget's going to be next year, let alone 10 years from now. The only budget that really counts, and even then they can't get it that accurate, is the current year. When the government cuts taxes it doesn't come with a guarantee that the rates are never going to go up.
* We had a bit of a turnaround Tuesday today; all of the major U.S. stock market averages were higher in the morning and we closed broadly lower on the day
* In fact, the Dow Jones did make an all-time record high this morning before closing down about 60 points, although the decline in the NASDAQ was greater
* We had a .082% decline in the NASDAQ; the Dow was only down by about .03%
* S&P 500 though had a bigger decline, it was down about .07%
* So the broader averages took a bigger decline than the Dow
* I don't think the technical damage is extreme
* Yes, we made new highs and closed lower, but it really wasn't an outside day
* It didn't close below Monday's lows, which would have been an outside reversal
* But when markets are as extended as they are, they can top on just about anything
* I put up an interesting article on my Facebook page that tried to draw a comparison between Amazon and Whole Foods merger and the big high-profile AOL-Time/Warner in 2000
* You had a big, internet darling making a big brick and mortar purchase and that marked the peak of the internet bubble
* And the author was making the case that this is another major internet company buying a brick and mortar company, a lot of fanfare, a lot of hype and maybe this is also going to mark a major top
* It's an interesting analysis, because I think we're at about the 15-year anniversary of the purchase
* It is an interesting comparison, not a perfect analogy; some things are similar and some things are not
* I do believe that the U.S. stock market is substantially overvalued, in fact a bubble
* The only reason I believe that the air is not going to come out of the bubble is because the Fed is not going to let it
* I am pretty sure that any significant decline in the stock market is going to be met with an aggressive Fed rate cut, quantitative easing
* I don't believe the Yellen Fed to allow the market to implode the way it did in 2008Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/21/2017 • 33 minutes, 7 seconds
Government, Not Amazon Putting Cashiers Out of Work – Ep. 259
Summary:
Amazon Buys Whole Foods
The Dow was up today; mainly on the surprise announcement that Amazon, the king of on-line retailing, is buying Whole Foods. In a labor market significantly altered by ObamaCare-style government intervention, this news could signal further changes to the labor market. Retail has experienced a steady decline, and this move could usher in a new wave of Amazon Go-style services.
Economic Surprise Index Headed For 2009 Territory
According to an article in Zero Hedge: For the 13th straight week, US economic data disappointed (already downgraded) expectations, sending Citi's US Macro Surprise Index to its weakest since August 2011 (crashing at a pace only beaten by the periods surrounding Lehman and the US ratings downgrade). The last time, Us economic data disappointed this much, Ben Bernanke immediately unleashed Operation Twist... but this time Janet Yellen is hiking rates and unwinding the balance sheet.
"Unexpected" Bad News in Housing Starts and Building Permits
Another "unexpected" big drop in housing starts; the third month in a row is accompanied by a drop in building permits, so that means that this trend is likely to continue. The last time we had 3 consecutive monthly declines it was 2009.
* We got some more bad economic news coming out today, and it capped a week of generally worse than expected news
* I was looking at a chart of the Economic Surprise Index on an article on Zero Hedge and it was a new low for this cycle
* They went back to find the last time the Economic Surprise Index was this low
* It was right about the time the Federal Reserve launched "Operation Twist"
* Remember that? I was calling it "Operation Screw"
* When the Fed was lengthening the maturity of its balance sheet
* It was selling some of its short term bonds and buying longer term bonds
* To have a better impact on pushing down long-term interest rates
* Yet today, when the market is being surprised by the same amount of negative economic data
* "Unexpected negative news"
* Again, every time you read a negative news story it is always prefaced with "Unexpected"
* I always put that in quotes because, why don't they expect it by now?
* You get enough bad news, you should expect it
* At some point, they will, and that's when the index starts to go the other way
* When things are bad long enough, people start expecting bad things to happen
* And then the next thing you know, good things happen
* So the Economic Surprise Index goes the other way
* People are still optimistic, yet they keep being disappointed
* Despite this, the Fed is not only not doing "Operation Twist", it is tightening
* It's putting the screws on big time in that it has just announced quantitative tightening
* Not only did they just raise interest rates on Wednesday but they indicated they are getting ready to do quantitative tightening for the first time ever
* This has never been tried before by the Federal Reserve
* It's amazing, too that the Federal Reserve is always out there talking about quantitative easing helped the economy
* It pushed up asset prices, it pushed up the stock market, pushed up the real estate market
* O.K., if that is what they think,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/17/2017 • 33 minutes, 31 seconds
Hawkish Hike May Backfire on Fed – Ep. 258
Summary
Quantitative Tightening Ahead:
The Federal Reserve came out with a surprisingly hawkish rate hike today, announcing plans to shrink the balance sheet by $50 billion per month. This would mean an annualized rate of $600 billion per year in new treasuries to hit the market. This does not take into consideration existing budget deficits or future spending. The Fed's policy reversal, in the face of no corroborating positive economic data, is still "data dependent".
No Good News:
Meanwhile, the "recovery" was the weakest recovery in history, with a doubling of the national debt, we have bubbles in the stock market, the real estate market, in the bond market market, the automobile market, student loans. We have eviscerated our labor market with people having multiple part time jobs and this is the Fed's definition of success!
Perfect Storm
Now you've got a perfect storm for stocks: falling earnings, weak economic data, rising interest rates and the Fed flooding the market with treasuries. Now maybe the stock market will take a second look at this hawkish hike and the implications of the Fed's rate hike plans in conjunction with quantitative tightening later this year in the face of a weakening economy.
* A lot of people, myself included, were looking for a dovish rate hike today coming from the Federal Reserve
* What I mean by a dovish hike was that the Fed would hike rates, because after all, everybody expected them to hike rates and they don't want to disappoint market expectations
* They don't want to raise any cautionary flags that they know something that they have not been forthright about
* I was expecting the Fed to acknowledge somewhat the weakening economic data to the point that itis now waiting for some confirmation that Q1 weakness was transitory
* And since such confirmation has not been forthcoming they may have acknowledged it
* But that's not what happened
* We actually got a hawkish hike
* Not only did the Fed raise rates but they did nothing to dampen expectations for future hikes
* In fact, Janet Yellen in her prepared remarks and in the press conference that followed was very upbeat, very optimistic on the economy
* Not worried about anything, no longer talking about the need for confirmation that prior weakness was transitory
* She seems to just believe that it was
* She thinks it is clear skies as far as the eye can see
* Looking for economic growth of just under 2% a year
* Not as optimistic as Donald Trump, looking for 3 or 4% growth
* But she doesn't see a recession coming
* She sees the economy continuing to perform at this 1.8 - 1.9% annual GDP
* She continues to see improvement in the labor market
* She's not worried about the decline in labor force participation
* She says it's holding steady and again she dismisses the low participation rate due to the ageing of the population, so she's very optimistic
* And something else she said that I think surprised the markets and made this more of a hawkish hike
* Was she actually talked about starting the shrinking of the balance sheet this year
* most people thought that maybe it would start next year, at least the rhetoric would say it would start next year
* Whether it actually starts or not remains to be seen
* But now Janet Yellen seems to suggest the Fed is ready to get started very soon with its normalization process
* In fact, she didn't use these words
* But it's really a reverse quantitative easing or quantitative tightening
* What Yellen basically said is that they are going to start off by tapering down their balance sheet by about $10 billion a month
* She actually specified, I think, $6 billion in treasuries and $4 billion in mortgage b...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/15/2017 • 24 minutes, 42 seconds
Statehood Would Be a Step Down for Puerto Rico – Ep. 257
Summary:
In Puerto Rico's recently held non-binding referendum on statehood, just 23% of the eligible voters who actually voted overwhelmingly chose statehood. This would mean that Puerto Rico would keep its current debt and take on the $20 trillion U.S. national debt. This would offer the moral hazard of offering Puerto Ricans additional welfare benefits. The last thing Puerto Ricans need is to be in a situation where it is more attractive not to work.
* A lot of people are asking me abo0ut the recent non-binding referendum in Puerto Rico on statehood
* 97% of the people who bothered to vote voted for statehood over independence or maintaining the status quo
* Only about 23% of the eligible voters actually voted
* So most people who objected to statehood boycotted the election
* So most of the people who voted were predisposed to vote for statehood
* The last statehood referendum held in 2012 was even more in favor of statehood
* Nevertheless, the governor of Puerto Rico, Ricardo Rosselló is going to go to Washington demanding that the will of the Puerto Rican people be addressed
* If you do not know by now, I am Puerto Rican
* I am an American citizen residing in Puerto Rico so I vote in Puerto Rican elections I do not vote in U.S. National elections, but I am away from Puerto Rico at present
* Had I voted, I would have voted to maintain the status quo
* I don't want Puerto Rico to become an independent country, but the last thing I would want is for Puerto Rico to become a state
* That's why I am doing this podcast
* Most of the articles I'm reading on this issue address the idea that state will somehow benefit Puerto Rico, because they have been in a recession for 10 years, they have high unemployment
* They have a lot of debt and somehow they see statehood as a solution to this problem
* Statehood for Puerto Rico is like throwing a drowning man an anchor
* The worst thing that could happen to Puerto Rico is for it to become a state
* If Puerto Rico becomes a state, every person who lives in Puerto Rico, who is currently exempt from paying Federal income tax will now have to pay it
* The IRS doesn't exist in Puerto Rico
* Puerto Ricans also do not have to deal with Obamacare - it doesn't exist there
* Each Puerto Rican currently owes about $20,000 in debt
* American citizens per capita owe $61,000 in debt
* That's just the $20 trillion national debt
* That doesn't include all the other unfunded liabilities
* Right now, Puerto Ricans do not share in the U.S. national debt
* If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the per capita debt goes from $20,000 to $80,000
* Because they inherit a share of the U.S. national debt
* Why would they want to sign up for that?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/14/2017 • 27 minutes, 46 seconds
Volatility Rises as Fed Readies Another Rate Hike Ep. 256
Summary:
Friday's Tech Wreck continued today, some stocks making key technical reversals. The crypto currencies, also experienced volatility as Bitcoin seems to be losing some of its market share to other competing crypto currencies, but volatility remains a key component of the market. Volatility may be exacerbated by Wednesday's anticipated Federal Reserve rate hike.
* Friday's Tech Wreck continued today; the NASDAQ composite led lower by the same momentum stocks that got clobbered on Friday
* Some of them making key technical reversals where they made new all-time highs in the morning and yet got clobbered and closed below the lows of prior trading days
* Some of them went below the lows of the prior week
* So a lot of these stocks looking very weak coming in to today's trading and continued although some of the losers did manage to eke out a gain
* Novita was one of the earliest stocks to reverse on Friday, which had a big technical reversal took out a low and managed to eke out a gain
* Tesla also was positive
* Google, Apple getting clobbered again, Netflix, Facebook, a lot of these big stocks continue to decline
* And this time the overall market did not escape the carnage because the Dow and also the S&P were also down on the day
* There was still some strength; the energy stocks were up again today building on the rotational strength that they enjoyed on Friday
* But it wasn't just the stock market that had big reversals
* It was the cryptocurrencies as well, particularly Bitcoin
* I mentioned the last couple of podcasts that when I was talking about Bitcoin and the cryptos
* Bitcoin's shrinking market share in the crypto world, and that continues
* Right now, the market cap of Bitcoin is now down to about 40% of the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies
* Ethereum, Bitcoin's biggest competitor right now, if you look at its market cap, it's actually not that much lower now
* Total market cap as I'm looking right now, of course it changes very quickly
* But about a $43 billion market cap for Bitcoin and about a $34 billion market cap for Ethereum
* This is the closest I've seen the two
* In fact, Ethereum is actually up today, even though Bitcoin is down quite a bit
* Bitcoin had a big reversal last night, I think it traded above $3000 I think for the first time, not on every exchange
* And then by late morning, it was trading below $2500
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/12/2017 • 30 minutes, 28 seconds
Political Theater Trumps Economic Data – Ep. 255
Summary: As an unexpected pro-labor vote in the U.K. weakened the pound and strengthened the dollar, the market reacted more to political news, abroad and at home. The uncertain results of Comey's testimony dampened concerns about the Trump Presidency. Prior to Comey's testimony someone sold a huge amount of gold, causing gold to drop, although it finally closed only down about $7, with another selloff this morning. Gold stocks, though continue to trade much better. NASDAQ got clobbered, Meanwhile, economic data continues to bring bad news: Consumer Credit numbers was a big miss with $8.2 billion instead the expected $17 billion.
* Yesterday we had the trifecta of potentially market moving events
* In hindsight, what looks like the most significant was the elections in the U.K.
* With the surprise strength coming from the Labor Party to deny the Conservative Party a majority
* It looks like May will remain Prime Minister even though the Conservatives do not have a majority in Parliament, because they can form a coalition, a minority government with another party
* But May's position is weakened and she did not get the results she gambled on when she called the election
* The reason the Labor party did so well was because of the young vote who overwhelmingly voted for Labor
* Which shouldn't be much of a surprise, after they're the ones who are promising the most free stuff, and it's younger people who are the most susceptible to that message
* Particularly people with little work or life experience
* That's one of the reasons the voting age should be higher
* In the U.S. the voting age is 18 and it was changed by Constitutional amendment
* It used to be 21, and it was the Vietnam war that caused the voting age to be lowered from 21 to 18
* The cry was, if you're old enough to fight, you're old enough to vote
* That's another example of how we lose every war
* I would prefer the voting age stay at 21, in fact I think it should be 25
* "Old enough to fight old enough to vote" makes as much sense as, "If you're too old to fight, you're too old to vote
* The one has nothing to do with the other
* The weakening of the Conservative government in the U.K. brought the pound down
* The pound was down about 1.6% today
* And the weakness in the pound spilled over into strength for the dollar against other currencies
* All the dollar's gains happened last night
* During the session today, the dollar gave back some of its gains
* It re-took the 97 handle, after making a new 6-month low earlier in the week, we got down about 96.50
* We closed out the week at 97.28Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/10/2017 • 31 minutes, 25 seconds
Will Gold’s Breakout be the Pin that Pricks the Crypto Bubble? Ep. 254
Summary: Gold and gold stocks are moving to new highs as the dollar index continues its slide. Although some connect this move to market jitters over the outcome of the upcoming James Comey testimony, economic factors are a more likely the force behind the move. Moves in gold stocks have been telegraphing gold prices more often than not, and gold stocks have a plenty of room to move to even reach its highs of earlier this year.
* Many of you probably expected me to do a podcast yesterday as a result of gold's move to new highs for the year
* And the dollar's move to new lows
* I happened to be traveling to Toronto, so I decided to wait until I got back to Connecticut where I can do the podcast from my studio
* So we had the price of gold up about $15.00 yesterday, and of course the price of gold has been creeping higher and higher ever since its correction
* And by the way, I think I did a pretty good job of nailing the correction itself
* I said it would be a very shallow correction
* I'm pretty sure I nailed the bottom
* I did a podcast when it looked to me that the gold stocks were confirming and end of the correction in gold
* Gold did rally, and initially gold stocks rallied, too, but then gold stocks came back down and almost re-tested their lows, didn't quite do it
* But the price of gold never came back down
* And yesterday, the price of gold hit a new high for the year
* It reversed all of the correction and then went on to higher highs
* Yet gold stocks are not even close to where they were a few months back
* In fact, the smaller gold miners, if you look at the GDXJ, I think this think could move up 35% or so
* But what we did get yesterday was finally a big move up in gold stocks
* Most gold stocks were up 4-5%
* I did notice some of the stocks I own up 8-10%
* So this was one of the biggest up days that gold stocks have had in a while
* In fact, we got a little bit of a warning about that the day before
* I've been watching these stocks very closely
* What I had noticed is that gold stocks were selling off every day into the close
* After bitcoin initially got its high, like $2900
* Within a couple of days it was back at $1900
* It dropped $1000 in a day or so
* How much volume did it actually take to do that? I don't think very much
* So, if I'm right, if all of a sudden gold and sudden gold and silver break out
* And now there is more enthusiasm
* - I've heard people say gold and silver are manipulated so I'm buying cryptos because there is no manipulation there, and you can really get appreciation
* Because the central banks are not letting gold and silver go up
* Once they see it go up, that attitude could changePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/7/2017 • 20 minutes, 54 seconds
Weak Data Further Undermines Fed’s Credibility – Ep. 253
Summary: Today's big miss in the Nonfarm Payroll report indicates further proof for the Fed that the Q1 weak economic data was not transitory. Coupled with disappointing Labor Force Participation declines and increasing Trade Deficit numbers, the Fed will have no good news to justify a rate hike. All this news does not bode well for the U.S. dollar index, which closed at a new low for the year today. The next crisis is the dollar.
* Following yesterday's much stronger than expected May ADP Jobs report, the consensus was for 170,000 jobs and the actual number was 253,000
* The stage was set for another strong number for today's employment report
* But we didn't get it
* We got the official number from the U.S. government earlier this morning
* The consensus was for 185,000 jobs created
* We actually created, according to the government, just 138,00 jobs - a big miss
* In addition to that, they took last month's initial 211,000 report and they lowered that down to just 174,000
* In fact they made revisions to the prior month as well
* The official unemployment rate actually went down to 4.3%
* I think that is a new low
* Why did the unemployment rate drop?
* For the same reason it has been dropping; lots of people left the labor force
* Labor Force Participation once again dropped .02 to 62.7%
* That matches the all time record low
* We actually had more than 600,000 people leave the labor force in the month of May
* A new all-time record high
* In fact, breaking it down by part-time and full-time, all of the net new jobs added were part time jobs
* We actually lost 367,000 full-time jobs during the month of May
* That is the biggest decline in full-time employment in 3 years
* Of course, as usual, the jobs that we do create were in leisure and hospitality, education healthcare, temporary services
* We actually lost some information technology jobs, we lost jobs in the retail trade; small gains in the wholesale trade, a little better than normal in manufacturing and logging
* But a still a tiny portion of the overall jobs in goods-producing segments of the economy
* So we continue to create non-productive jobs which is another reason that the trade deficit continues to rise, and we'll get to that in a minute
* Weekly hourly earnings up just .02%, matching expectations on the lower end
* But they went back to last month's, originally reported as +.03% and they moved that down to +.2%
* So earnings are not growing, full-time jobs are disappearing, and this economy is weakening
* In fact, also yesterday, Challenger job cuts report announced layoffs surged in the month of May from 36,602 in April to 51,692 in May
* This is the highest number of announced layoffs of any month of the year
* That doesn't bode well for future job creation if all of a sudden we're getting a spike in layoffs
* In addition to the bad jobs report, which of course is going to weigh on GDP in Q2
* We got the trade deficit for April, which is the first month of the second quarter
* They were looking for a deficit of $46.1 billion
* Instead, the deficit ballooned all the way up to $47.6 billion
* From what was originally reported at $43.7 billion in March, revised that up to $45.3 billion
* So this is going to take away not only from Q2 GDP but it's going to go back and take away from Q1 GDP
* Remember, in my last podcast, I pointed out that the Federal Reserve, specifically, in their minutes said that before they raise rates again they want confirmation that the Q1 weak economic data was transitory
* Meanwhile all of the data that has come out since those minutes were released actually proves the oppositePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/3/2017 • 30 minutes, 59 seconds
Does Weak Box Office Reflect Weak Economy? – Ep. 252
Summary: Box office revenues for this holiday weekend were the weakest since 1999. Why is that? Some say the movies were not very good, but I think it's more likely that this is just another piece of evidence that supports the fact that the consumer is in much worse shape than is generally perceived.
* Hopefully everybody had a happy Memorial Day weekend; I spent my holiday weekend up in Vancouver at the International Metal Writers Conference
* And when I came home, I came back to my home in Connecticut
* This was the first year I spent the winter in Puerto Rico, from January 1 until just a few days ago
* I bought a condo in Puerto Rico a few years ago, I moved my Euro Pacific Asset Management Company there from California at about that time, but I'd never moved there myself until this year
* I like snow, it's pretty, but the next time I see snow it's because I'm skiing on it
* I'm a snowbird now
* But this time I'm not only flying out of bad weather, I'm flying out of high taxes
* It's not just the high taxes in Connecticut; it's the high taxes in the U.S.
* By the way, Connecticut is basically broke, if you read a lot of the articles now
* The tax revenue is collapsing
* I'm moving from a bankrupt state to a bankrupt territory
* Puerto Rico has already declared bankruptcy; Connecticut hasn't actually done that
* Connecticut is admitting that they can't raise taxes on the rich anymore, because the rich are leaving
* I moved down to Puerto Rico with my wife and two young children, and I love it
* I live in a nice community, Dorado Beach; great neighborhood, many in the same situation as me
* I read this article about box office - holiday weekends are usually a good time for Hollywood
* Memorial weekend is a big weekend to kick off the summer movie season
* The article I read stated that box office revenues for this holiday weekend were the weakest since 1999
* Why is that?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/1/2017 • 23 minutes, 38 seconds
Fed Admits It Needs Evidence Q1 Weakness Was Transitory – Ep. 251
Summary: The Fed is now indicating it needs evidence that the Q1 weak economic data is transitory and not a trend. This is interesting for 2 reasons. The Fed's narrative has always been to tout economic growth even in the face of flimsy or no supporting data. Now the Fed is actually admitting there is weakness. The other interesting thing is that, although the Fed continues to claim it is "data dependent", it has been ignoring the economic data ever since the first rate hike. The market puts chances of a June rate hike at almost 100%. Maybe that is because it believes the Fed will raise rates regardless of proof.
* On Wednesday we got the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes
* As usual, the FOMC is indicating that as long as the economy continues to evolve according to their forecast, that it would be appropriate to remove additional accommodations soon
* And, I guess the markets are assuming soon is in about 3 weeks when the Fed meets in June everybody anticipates that the Fed will hike rates again
* Actually raising interest rates all the way back up to 1% - that would be the new floor on rates
* That was the lowest that rates got during the Greenspan era that gave us the housing bubble and ensuing financial crisis
* It's taken a long time even to get up to that insanely low level of interest rates
* But everybody still assumes - I think the probability is near 100% - that the Fed is going to raise rates in June
* But what I thought was interesting about those minutes, and nobody's talking about this
* In the minutes, the Federal Reserve said that they are also looking for proof that the weak economic data from the first quarter was transitory
* They're looking for proof in order to continue to raise rates
* I'm thinking, if the Fed says they need proof that Q1 data was transitory, are they actually going to get that proof by the June meeting?
* If they don't have the proof yet, are they going to have it by June?
* Almost all the economic data that has come out recently, including this week, has been pretty bad
* In fact, the data that we're getting confirms to me that rather than being transitory
* The weakness in the first quarter is likely to continue
* If it's transitory at all it is because we're transitioning into a recession
* So if the Fed is looking for proof that the economic data was transitory, thus far they haven't gotten any
* If they actually need the proof prior to raising rates, they maybe they are not going to raise rates in June
* The market doesn't seem to even give that a possibility
* Maybe it's because the Fed claims to be data dependent
* Yet they've ignored data ever since the first rate hike
* Now they are saying that the data they are depending on is data that is going to provide proof that the first quarter weakness is transitory
* Maybe the markets aren't buying that, they're saying, "We think the Fed's going to raise rates regardless of whether or not there's any proof."
* Even if there is no proof, they are going to pretend that there isPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/27/2017 • 25 minutes, 39 seconds
The Dollar’s Decline Is Only Just Getting Started – Ep. 250
Summary: The dollar's decline really started with the Fed's too-little-too late rate hikes. The rally of 2014 - 2015 was fueled by expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy that did not materialize. We've been trending sideways since then with the exception of an upward spike after the Trump victory. Now, as much of the hype surrounding Trump's election is losing its momentum, support for the dollar is waning. This is not a case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact". This is going to be a situation where the fact does not live up to the rumor.
* The dollar continued its losing streak today. The dollar index was down for the 8th time in 9 days
* The 9 day decline is about 2-1/2 percent
* The dollar index actually traded below 97 today for the first time since Donald Trump was elected President
* So we have wiped out 100% of the ill-gotten dollar gains that were racked up in the wake of that victory
* If you remember, when the dollar was rallying as a result of the trump victory, I said it was a sucker's rally and sure enough, that's exactly what it was
* The dollar's decline is only just getting started
* I think the dollar would have begun its decline a while ago had Hillary Clinton been elected
* But because of Trump's unexpected victory and the prospects of faster economic growth,
* Trump-flation (as if inflation were even good for the dollar) but to the extent that it made the Fed raise interest rates
* That's what created the rally and it was a great selling opportunity for people who understood what really was going on
* But all we've done thus far is get rid of gains that never should have been racked up
* The dollar hasn't really even begun its decline, but I think that decline is going to begin in earnest
* In fact, my next target for the dollar index is going to be around 92, which is about 5% below current levels
* But if we get below 92, that will be the dollar's lowest level since January 2015, so about a 2-1/2 year low, assuming we get there in the next couple of months, depending how long it takes to trade down
* But what really gets interesting once the dollar index gets below 92
* If you look at a chart, there's nothing but air between 92 and 80
* Because the dollar index rose in 2014
* The dollar had a huge rally anticipating the Fed's tightening monetary policy
* Tapering and all the talk about rate hikes
* That was probably the best year for the dollar
* And that momentum continued into 2015
* The dollar didn't lose its momentum until the Fed started hiking ratesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/23/2017 • 34 minutes, 3 seconds
Will Republicans Dump Trump for Pence? – Ep. 249
Summary: Republicans face chaos around Trump's political difficulties, causing some to consider potential advantages of a President Pence. Market volatility has not yet brought the DJIA below pre-Trump numbers while the dollar index slides and gold moves up. Meanwhile, household debt is higher than 2008 levels even as fewer Americans own homes.
* It looks like I picked a very volatile week to go out to Las Vegas, although I didn't pick this week; the week picked me
* I have two conferences that I am attending here: the Las Vegas Money Show and the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference otherwise known as SALT
* A lot is going on, certainly the political chaos in the United States, the Dow was down 365 points yesterday based on new revelations with respect to why Donald Trump may have fired FBI Director James Comey
* Was he doing it because Comey refused to give up on his investigation of Trump's Russian ties?
* Now you've got Congress members on both sides of the aisle questioning whether the allegations are true
* Apparently Comey has some contemporaneous notes of conversations he had with Donald Trump
* Donald Trump may have asked him to give up the investigation
* Although from what I've heard President Trump said it would be nice if Comey gave up the investigation - was that some kind of idle threat?
* Did that mean "You'd better do it, or you're fired."
* I have no idea, but this obviously is creating concerns for the Trump Administration
* The market, as far as I'm concerned, is really not down very much at all, given how much it had rallied based on nothing but the optimism surrounding expectations for all the good things that would happen as a result of a Trump Presidency
* We were going to get tax reform, we were going to get regulations; we were going to have all this stimulus
* Not only has none of these things materialized yet, even before the scandals broke, it was obvious that even if we got any of the promised legislation
* Of course I've always said it would not even help the economy
* But regardless, people actually think it it is going to, which created the big stock market rally
* Even before this controversy it was obvious that the expected improvements were going to take a lot longer than people thought
* Now this is going to delay Trump's agenda even more
* Because now, rather than concentrating on tax reform or repealing ObamaCare, or stimulus, now they've got to deal with damage control to hold on to the Presidency and fend off these calls for impeachment
* Now they've got to get a special prosecutor and all of this is going to add additional delays
* Of course, a lot of momentum we had in Q1, in spite of weak GDP, you had all this confidence, all this enthusiasm on the part of Republicans and Trump voters
* And it was all this confidence that was supposed to lead to extra economic growth
* Businesses were going to have more confidence to invest and hire
* And consumers were going to have more confidence to spend
* Well certainly, what is happening now in the White House is going to shake some of that confidence
* Some of the people who were so enthusiastic about Trump don't even know if Trump is going to be there anymore
* And to the extent that is is there, he is politically damaged
* Now he has to use a lot of his political capital just to secure his position rather than to advance his agenda
* Whether or not that agenda would actually help the economy
* Despite that, the drop in the stock market is not very large
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/18/2017 • 29 minutes, 5 seconds
Fed And Markets Excuse Retail Bloodbath – Ep. 248
Summary: The retail sector is in worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately following the financial crisis. Retailing has been responsible for 10% of the jobs gained during this so-called recovery. Clearly part of the problem is the increase in minimum wage. Why are retailers adding so many jobs when their business is declining?
* A quick little announcement at the beginning of this podcast; I'm going to try to keep the length of these podcasts down to 20 minutes in the future
* It seems we have quite a bit of audience falloff after about 17 minutes
* We're also skipping our ads at the end in favor of more informative content about Euro Pacific Capital, SchiffGold, Goldmoney and Euro Pacific Bank.
* So I am going to do these shorter podcasts more frequently
* First of all, it's the RetailPocalypse, which I have been talking about on this podcast that, from my perspective - not just my perspective,
* In reality, the retail sector is in worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately foll0wing the financial crisis
* We got a lot of bad news from the retailers this week
* Including JCPenny and Nordstrom's - horrible sales from these companies
* We had other retailers earlier in the week that came out with bad news
* Kohl's Department Store, Dillards
* Kohl's stock is at 36.5 as I record this
* That stock's high was $75-$80 in the summer of 2015
* So it's down 60% or so
* Dillard's is at a 52-week low today, at just under $47
* That was over $120 - more than a 50% decline
* Macy's was down another 3% today - a new 52-week low
* Macy's is at $23.60 -it was a $70 stock
* These are huge markdowns for retail stocks
* Look at Nordstrom's - down almost 11% today on the bad news
* $41.20 - Nordstrom's was an $80 stock is one of the best performers
* JCPenny is going to get the prize for the biggest decline overall
* This stock's been falling for a long time
* It closed today at $4.55
* A lot of people are very complacent - they say, "Oh, it's no big deal because it's all about e-commerce
* Everybody is shopping online
* Look at Amazon - Amazon stock hit a new 52-week high today
* All time high, not just a 52-week high
* Jeff Bezos is on the way to being the richest man in the worldPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/13/2017 • 24 minutes, 56 seconds
Fantasy Trumps Reality – Ep. 247
Summary: Trump fantasy persists in the face of weakening economic data, health care and tax reform uncertainty. The reality is that the damage done to the economy will not right itself just because Trump has been elected and we are in for a wild ride whether or not President Trump decides to do the right thing for the American economy.
* It didn't take long for the Atlanta Fed to already reduce its inflated Q2 GDP forecast
* Remember, they initially came out with their first estimate of 4.3% growth in the second quarter
* Following the dismal .7% that was initially released for Q1
* My guess is, still, that they will continue lowering that estimate as more economic data comes in
* Nonetheless, the Atlanta Fed boldly came out with 4.3% for Q2
* Already, earlier this week, they have reduced that estimate to 3.6%
* That was their first downward revision; I think it is going to be the first of many
* We did this exact same dance last quarter
* Where the Atlanta Fed starts high and as more and more weaker data comes in they keep notching down the estimate
* It's like a GDP forecasting limbo
* The question is:"How low can the bar go?"
* Remember, I mentioned on my last video blog that the New York Fed is already down to 1.8% for Q2, so the Atlanta Fed has a long way to go to catch up to the New York Fed's estimate
* Friday will bring the next update to the GDP estimate
* And that's when we will get the retail sales numbers
* My guess is that we will continue the trend and those sales will be less than expected
* We already got some news today that should weigh on Q2 GDP and that is Import/Export Prices for the month of April
* This is important because obviously what we pay for our imports and what we get for our exports will be a big determinate of the trade deficitPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/11/2017 • 42 minutes, 38 seconds
Fed Dismisses Weak Data to Posture for Another Rate Hike
SchiffReport recorded Saturday, May 6
* On Wednesday of this week, the Federal Reserve against a rate hike in May
* But based on their official statement, the market assigned a much higher probability
* To a rate hike coming in June
* In fact, following Friday's slightly better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report, the probability of a June rate hike is not near 100%
* In other words, the markets are certain that a quart-point hike is coming next month
* If the Federal Reserve does raise its rates by a quarter point, that will bring the floor of the official rate finally up to 1%
* The ceiling being 1.25%, so presumably the Fed will target a Fed funds rate somewhere between 1 - 1.25%
* This is still an exceptionally low interest rate indicating extreme monetary accommodation
* Remember, 1% is the absolute low that Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to in the aftermath of the 2001 recession and the 9/11 terrorist attack
* That artificially low interest rate really provided the air for the housing bubble that resulted in the 2008 Financial Crisis
* So despite these rate hikes, the Fed monetary policy remains extremely accommodative,
* Just not as accommodative as they were before
* If you recall, the main reason I was certain that the Fed was not like to deliver these rate hikes
* Is because I took the Fed at its word that it was data dependent
* And I believed that the Fed would use weak data as an opportunity or an excuse to not raise interest rates
* I was wrong about that, because the Federal Reserve has ignored all of the weakening economic data and has raised rates anyway
* It has raised them very slowly, but nonetheless, it has raised interest rates despite the fact that all the data they claim to depend on would not support that decision
* I thought for 2 reasons the Fed would not want to hike rates
* The first be to delay the onset of the next recession
* After all, raising rates into a weakening economy it would accelerate the onset of that recession
* I thought the Fed would always err on a delay
* But apparently, that is not a concern for the Fed
* One of the reasons this might be the case is because the Fed is concerned about having some ammunition to fight the next recession, rather than to postpone the onset
* Meaning that they want to get interest rates further above zero before the recession officially begins so that once it is here, they have more room to cut rates
* Another reason that the Fed has been more willing to raise rates has to do with the action in the U.S. stock market
* I thought the Fed would be reluctant to raise rates for fear of how higher rates might impact the stock market
* But it seems the stock market has found another prop
* It is no longer relying on cheap money; it now also relying on hope and optimism surrounding the election of Donald Trump
* And the idea that he is somehow going to "Make America Great Again"
* With deregulation, tax cuts and all sorts of economic stimulusPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/7/2017 • 35 minutes, 32 seconds
Fed Forecasts – Propaganda or Incompetence? – Ep. 246
Summary: Last quarter the Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP forecast was 3.4% in February. The most recent number was actually .7%. After all the negative economic data that came out today suggesting that Q1 could be revised lower, the Atlanta Fed came out with their forecast for Q2 GDP at 4.3%. How is this possible, with no economic data to support this projection? Either they believe their policies are still valid in the face of data on a downward trajectory, or they are simply acting as salesmen, promoting economic health regardless of the actual data.
* Today was Donald Trump's 100th day as President of the United States
* The media is covering this event and looking back over the last 100 days
* Trying to assess the effectiveness of Trump's presidency thus far
* What has he accomplished, how much progress has he made;
* I think the origin of assessing the first 100 days of a presidency goes back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt
* Who of course became president during the Great Depression
* I think the President accomplished a lot during his first 100 days
* That's been the benchmark for which future presidents have been judged
* It's not about which President did the most good for the country during the first 100 days
* It's just, "Who did the most?"
* Because, FDR did a lot, all of it harmed the economy
* Not only did FDR's exacerbate and expand the depression,
* His actions had repercussions for decades
* We are suffering today from the mistakes that FDR made in his first 100 days
* He accomplished a lot, but he accomplished a lot of mistakes
* I would rather have a president do nothing for his first 100 days
* If a President just played golf for 100 days and did nothing
* Chances are he might be the best president we've ever had
* Most Presidents do damage to the economy during their first 100 days
* To the extent that they pass a law, chances are, the law just limited our freedom and reduced our standard of living
* That's true for most politicians: doing nothing is better than doing something
* Because doing something normally means doing harm
* I wish politicians would take the Hippocratic Oath, "First do not harm"
* If politicians took that oath, they could not do anything
* To the extent that a President can undo the damage done by a previous President
* Then, he would be doing a good thing
* I recognize that some of the things that Trump is trying to do is to undo Obama's mistakesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/2/2017 • 33 minutes, 32 seconds
U.S. GDP Cools As Eurozone Inflation Heats Up – Ep. 245:
Summary: The Europeans released their inflation numbers today. Year over year, inflation in the Eurozone are increasing at an average of 1.9%, which is Mario Draghi's objective. This is a 4-year high in CPI increase. How does Draghi justify more stimulus? In the U.S. growth is lower than forecast, while inflation is higher than forecast. That trend should be disturbing and it will continue.
* Today we got the government's first estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter of 2017
* If you remember, the Atlanta Fed has been steadily reducing its estimate for first quarter growth since February 1 of this year when it was estimating 3.4% GDP growth
* The last downward revision happened yesterday as a result of more weak economic data that came out yesterday
* Particularly on inventories
* The Atlanta Fed made its final revision to the estimate for Q1, at least the estimate that we got today
* And they were down to .2%!
* The consensus for Q1 had also come down; but not nearly as much as the Atlanta Fed
* Going into this morning, the consensus estimate was 1.1% GDP growth which would be a sharp reduction from the 2.1% GDP growth that the government claims we had last year
* And the range of forecasts went from a high of 1.7% to a low of .7%
* Nobody was quite as low as the Atlanta Fed
* We got the actual number this morning and it was .7%
* This is just the first estimate
* If you look at the economic data that has been coming out this year, the later the data comes, the worse it is
* So if that trend continues over the next month, as the government continues to get additional data from which to determine GDP
* There's a very good chance that they will revise this number down
* And maybe the Atlanta Fed's .2% will end up being correct or too optimistic
* I think there is still a good chance that by the time they get the final revision, which will not happen for a couple of months
* We could end up with a negative number for Q1 very easily
* I think the second quarter will be even weaker than the first quarter
* If we end up with a negative number for the first quarter there's a good chance we'll get a negative number in the second quarter
* Which means that by the time we get the negative number, if the second quarter is pretty much over, and it was also negative
* Then we will actually be in a recessionPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/29/2017 • 38 minutes, 19 seconds
Trump Tax Cuts To Starve The Beast – Ep. 244
Summary: President Trump actually delivered on his promise of the largest tax cut in American history, and he delivered it on time. Trump may have presented a plan with built-in bargaining positions, or he might even intend to pass a tax bill that will "starve the beast". The interesting thing is that the President is applying this 15% tax rate to pass-through entities, such as LLC's, which will encourage most businesses to shift into a different business model to take advantage of the low tax rate. In other words, people currently at a 43.4% rate will pay 15%. This is going to cause two things to happen that will hurt the economy and a lot of people in the middle class: a big increase in consumer prices and inflation. Will Republicans vote against the biggest tax cut ever based on the fact that it adds to the debt? Ultimately, a resulting fiscal crisis might force Republicans to vote to cut spending.
* Donald Trump was right. He actually lived up to expectations, in fact, he might have exceeded them
* When it comes to the magnitude of the tax cut that he proposed - on schedule
* On Wednesday, today, Donald Trump unveiled his idea for what could well be the biggest tax cut in American history
* Ordinarily, I would be all in favor of the biggest tax cut in American history, if it were accompanied by the biggest spending cuts in American history
* Government costs what it spends - you have to pay for government, one way or another
* So if you're going to have big government and you're going to spend all kinds of money, the most efficient way to raise the money is through taxation
* And of course the most efficient form of taxation would be a consumption tax, sales tax, tariffs
* Not an income tax
* An income tax is the worst way to raise revenue
* An even worse way to raise revenue is by going into debt
* Borrowing money and then printing money will cause prices to rise, eventually interest rates to rise
* And ultimately will result in enormous tax hikes
* To repay all the money that you borrowed
* What Donald Trump is doing, is he is offering an enormous tax cut, but no spending cuts
* And what they are saying is that the tax cuts will pay for themselves because there will be so much extra growth
* That the government will make up for the difference based on more people working and more people having higher incomes and even though the tax rates are lower, the net payments will be higher
* None of this is true
* These tax cuts are so enormous that there is no way that the economic growth can make up the difference
* Even if we get the higher economic growth
* One of the bigger issues that people are not talking about is the impact of higher interest rates
* Which will certainly be a result of much larger deficits and even faster economic growthPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/27/2017 • 34 minutes, 39 seconds
Spending, Not Taxes, Measures Government’s True Burden – Ep. 243
Summary: Government spending creates the greatest drag on the U.S. economy. Cutting taxes, even the "biggest tax cut ever" cannot stimulate the economy alone. So if you're fed up with paying taxes, if you think you are over-taxed, and you are, it's because the government is spending too much money. The only real way to get relief is to dramatically cut government spending. No one want's to do that, however, because the people who benefit from government spending, vote, and none of the politicians are willing to lose their votes to ease the burden of everybody else.
* On Friday, President Donald Trump said that he would be unveiling on Wednesday of next week, a massive tax cut
* In fact, he actually went out on a limb and stated that it is going to be the biggest tax cut ever
* Now, I'm really not sure why Donald Trump feels he has to keep promising something and then failing to deliver; that's been a problem
* You don't want to over-promise and under-deliver
* I understand as a candidate you want to do that; you want to promise anything to get elected
* But somebody ought to tell Donald Trump that the election is over and he won
* He's President, and he doesn't have to come out and just say things
* What I think is that he should say nothing about tax reform until he actually releases a plan
* That way he can over-deliver
* Don't promise anything - "I'm working on it." - and don't put up a deadline for Wednesday
* What if it doesn't happen?
* What if there is no tax cut on Wednesday
* What if it's not the biggest the biggest tax cut ever
* Why make those promises?
* Maybe his is going to release a massive tax cut on Wednesday and maybe it will be the biggest ever
* I'm not going to take credit away from the President; I'm just saying, "Why not just wait until Wednesday?"
* Just in case something goes wrong
* Maybe this time there actually is a vote
* But the problem, is if you cry wolf to often, then eventually no one's going to believe you
* There's really no reason to go out and make the promise; just deliver the massive tax cut on Wednesday and everything will be fine
* But I guess he can't resist jumping the gun
* But the crazy part about this, first of all, how is it going to be the biggest tax cut ever?
* It's hard to believe that, when we have the most debt ever
* An enormous 20 trillion National Debt, that the President understands,
* He pointed out how big the debt was when he campaigned
* How can we afford the biggest tax cut ever unless we're also going to talk about the biggest government spending cut ever?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/22/2017 • 41 minutes, 22 seconds
Crowd Beginning To Exit Long Dollar Trade – Ep. 242
Summary: Goldman Sachs is no longer recommending a long trade on the dollar. The dollar was previously regarded as a conviction trade, first over speculation over Fed rate hikes and then over Trump exuberance with the expectation of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and other moves that would continue to inflate the dollar bubble. The dollar was the most crowded trade out there. I believe, however that as we get close enough to the next recession, that we are going to get another big Keynesian stimulus of increased government spending and tax cuts, which will send the budget deficit through the roof and that will send the dollar through the floor.
* We've been having quite a bit of volatility in the U.S. stock market, with back-to-back triple-digit moves in opposite directions
* Yesterday, the Dow was up well over 100 points, closer to 200
* But today the Dow Jones was down better than 100 points
* Between the 2 days it was still positive, but we'll see what happens tomorrow
* We did get some worse than expected new after the bell on IBM; I'm seeing the stock down close to 5% in after hours trading
* That could set the tone for some weakness tomorrow
* Goldman Sachs helped set a weak tone today; they came out with earnings earlier in the day and their stock was down close to 5%
* What was more interesting about Goldman Sachs was not their missed earnings,
* But the fact that they are now throwing in the towel on their long-term recommendations to buy the dollar
* Of course, the dollar has been strong over the past few years
* Although really since March of last year the dollar has gone sideways
* It did make a marginal new high during the Trump mania, after the election
* But only against a few currencies, not against all currencies
* The dollar index today was down sharply; it closed at about 99.50
* The strongest currency today was the pound sterling; it was actually up about 3 full cents; a 2.25% move
* The dollar was also down today against the euro, against the yen
* It was up against some of the commodity currencies, which had been stronger during the year
* It looks to me that the dollar has topped out, and it looks that way to Goldman Sachs
* They are saying, "This is no longer our top recommendation, like a conviction trade"
* Why? because everybody assumed that the dollar was going to go up
* Because the Fed is hiking rates; we're getting all this economic stimulus, tax cuts, we're going to get infrastructure stimulus
* Whatever the reason, everybody was certain the dollar was going to go up
* Remember, I said it was the most crowded trade out therePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/19/2017 • 32 minutes, 10 seconds
Is Donald Trump The Next Jimmy Carter? – Ep. 241
Summary: Donald Trump's promises on healthcare and smaller government appear to be fading behind news of increased military spending, infrastructure spending and compromises on health care and tax reform. This scenario looks far more like Jimmy Carter than Ronald Regan. We continue to get bad economic data, telegraphing that the air is already leaking out of the economic bubbles created over the last 8 years. This bad news may encourage the Fed to walk back their current interest rate hike schedule, which would, if implemented, put a match to growing recessionary trends.
* It is Good Friday today and most of the world's markets are closed, including the U.S. stock market
* I want to wish all my listeners happy Good Friday and Easter and to my Jewish listeners happy Passover
* But let me get to the economic data that came out this morning because some of the government offices are open today
* I am starting with the Consumer Price Index, which is not bad from my perspective, but will be bad from Wall Street's perspective or the Fed's perspective
* Although bad is good, in that it will give the Fed cover to not raise rates
* Because the CPI actually dropped in March my 3 tenths of a percent
* It was unexpected; it was supposed to be flat
* And the Core number was supposed to be up .2 and it was down .1
* I think this is the weakest inflation number in a couple of years
* Of course, year over year, we're still above the Fed's 2% target
* Year over year, CPI headline up 2.4% and the core is up 2.0
* But the most recent number being down, may in fact give the Fed cover to walk back the market's expectations for 2 or 3 rate hikes coming later this year
* But I think the more relevant information is the extremely weak number we got on retail sales
* I was expecting a weak number
* I mentioned that in my last podcast, and we got a weak number
* But not only was it weak, but they revised the February number that was originally weak, much weaker
* The expectation was for a flat month of March for retail sales
* Versus the .1% gain that we eked out in February
* Now, the government came back and said, "No, the February number was actually a drop of .3%
* So instead of +.1% we dropped .3%
* And in March, instead of being flat, we were down another .2%
* So that means for the two months combined, we have a decline of .5% instead of an increase of .1%Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/14/2017 • 40 minutes, 8 seconds
Trump Train Ready To Derail – Ep. 240
Summary: President Trump's campaign promises are falling by the wayside one by one. First the backfire on the replacement for Obamacare, and then, just as talk of tax reform heats up, the administration seems to be gazing toward the Democrats for a bi-partisan solution to tax reform. No good can come from bi-partisanship. When the Republicans and the Democrats are working together, that's when you really have to watch your pocketbook. That's when the most damage gets done. The stock market initially rallied on the jobs number, but sold off by the end of the day; normally, you get a print this low the dollar index would tank and gold would take off. That didn't happen because the night before Donald Trump decided to Make America Great Again by bombing Syria.
* Well, I am back on dry land, I was away for a week doing a cruise with the Real Estate Guys Summit at Sea
* One of the presenters was senior vice-president and chief economist of Fannie Mae Doug Duncan
* I thought my presentation would be a big contrast to his, I thought he would present the usual government unrealistic estimates, but
* I was very pleasantly surprised, as I listened to his presentation, I found I agreed with him
* And after a private conversation with him after his presentation, we had a great discussion and we didn't desagree on anything!
* He is very bearish on the housing market, very much against Fed policy
* He's against the minimum wage
* We had a long conversation and we really disagreed on nothing!
* I was quite surprised to find a government insider who showed such economic insights
* So it's just not Peter Schiff who sees these problems looming on the horizon
* In the bond market, in the real estate market
* The is a minority of government economists, just like I'm in the minority of Wall Street or investment economists
* But it's good to know that there are some good people working within the government
* But I wanted to get into topics of this podcast; a lot to talk about
* Let's start with the Non-Farm Payroll report
* The jobs report that came out on Friday is usually the most highly anticipated release of the month
* Everybody was enthusiastic about this report
* Earlier in the week we got the ADP number, the private sector number which is normally a precursor to the official government number
* and that number was way ahead of estimates, so there was a lot of enthusiasm that we would have a beat for the official government March number
* They were looking for 175,000 jobs which was going to be a reduction from the 235,000 jobs reported for the month of February
* The actual number of jobs that were created was not 175,000 but 98,000
* Big miss on the headline number
* In fact, they actually revised downward the previous month
* So they took that down from 235,000 to 219,000 and now we got 98,000 versus 175
* And the private payrolls were even worse; they were looking for 170,000 and we only got 89,000Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/11/2017 • 31 minutes, 53 seconds
Trump Needs To Lead Not Oppose The Freedom Caucus – Ep. 239
Summary: President Trump needs to lead, not oppose. He is opposing the very forces who put him in office. By aligning with the mainstream Republican Party, he vacates the opportunity to lead the economy successfully through the inevitable consequences of the Obama Administration's failed economic policies.
Investors are jumping on the bandwagon of hype surrounding the Trump Presidency. Abandoning safe havens and emerging markets, they are buying into the American stock market at high valuations, which is the equivalent of abandoning the lifeboat and swimming back onto the Titanic just because the band is playing.
* As I suspected, we now have a bit of a civil war breaking out in the Republican Party
* On the one side, you have the Freedom Caucus, and then you have everybody else, or the mainstream of the Republican Party
* It seems like Donald Trump is the general of the mainstream
* One of the battlefields is Twitter
* Where you have President Trump calling out even specific Congressional members of the Freedom Caucus by name
* And blaming them for the failure of the Republican agenda
* Remember: we don't want the Republican agenda
* Donald Trump ran on a platform of "Making America Great Again"
* One of the reasons America is not great is because of the Republican agenda
* Republicans have played a role in destroying this economy
* It's not like the Republicans are all good and the Democrats are all bad
* That's not the case
* The difference, in terms of the economy, between Republicans and Democrats, is like the difference between Coke and Pepsi
* They're all politicians!
* Their business is perpetuating their own careers and their own power base
* What do they need? They need votes and they need money
* How do you get votes? Promise something for nothing.
* Give out freebies. Take advantage of the fact that the average voter is a moron, and they're just voting for free stuff from the government
* Sometimes there is a difference between the way the Democrats and the Republicans wrap it up
* Who said, "Let's wrap up Obamacare in a Republican bow."?
* Republicans like to wrap up socialism in different packaging
* That's how they get votes - they're afraid to engage the electorate on an intellectual level
* Because they really don't have onePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/31/2017 • 42 minutes, 41 seconds
Over-Confident Republicans Poised For Disappointment – Ep. 238
* On Monday the market got its first opportunity to react to President Trump and the Republican Congress' failure to repeal and replace Obamacare
* With something more palatable
* And as a result, the market declined
* At the lows, the Dow was down approximately 200 points
* Although the "Buy the Dippers" came out, and by the end of the day, the Dow was UP about 150 points
* But it was the 8th consecutive down day for the Dow
* Which I think was a tie for the longest losing streak since 2011
* Had the Dow been down again today, it would have been the longest losing streak since sometime in the 1970's
* So it wasn't that surprising that the Dow rallied
* We were up about 150 points, so we more than wiped out yesterday's losses
* On the other hand, the dollar sold off yesterday and actually traded with a 98 handle
* For the first time since just after the election
* Almost all of the Trump-related dollar rally has been eviscerated
* The dollar rallied back today closing at 99.71 today
* The pound was weak; the Scottish are getting ready to have another referendum
* Whether or not they want to leave the U.K.
* Remember, the Scots did not want to leave the EU
* They narrowly rejected an independence referendum before and now that there is going to be another vote, the market is nervous
* Maybe that helped push the dollar down, but we're below 100 on the dollar index right now
* Gold got back up to $1260 yesterday; at one point it was up about $17
* I didn't see it hit $1261
* That was about the high for the year
* Gold still closed today above $1250
* Silver was actually up again
* Adding to yesterday's gain, we're now holding above $18
* So gold and silver going up; the dollar going down
* We did get a rally in the bond market yesterday; gave back some of that today
* I think today's rally was more of a technical bounce on the "Buy the dip" mentalityPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/29/2017 • 30 minutes, 48 seconds
Obamacare Lives To Die Of Natural Causes – Ep. 237
* Earlier I talked about the Trump honeymoon, and my belief that it wouldn't last long, in fact I thought it might have ended before the marriage began with the inauguration
* It did carry on a bit after that, but it seems to me that the honeymoon is ending now
* Today, the attempt to repeal and replace ObamaCare went down in flames
* That's something I had predicted a while ago; I said that I doubted that they would be able to repeal Obamacare and it turns out that I was right
* They didn't do it
* In fact, President Trump threw a Hail Mary late in the negotiations by threatening the Republican holdouts: "Pass this bill or else."
* He basically said, it's this or nothing - If you don't replace ObamaCare, you're stuck with the consequences
* I think that was a bad gamble for the President to have made, in fact as soon as he issued that ultimatum
* I thought that was going to be a problem because I didn't think the conservatives were going to buckle as a result of that threat
* And they didn't
* Now, not only has the bill been pulled, President Trump is in a very awkward position because he's already said
* Take it or leave it
* And Republicans left it
* Now how does he come back to the negotiating table?
* Now, if he comes back, he doesn't have a lot of credibility
* I still think it would be better if he went back to the negotiation table
* I think it was a bad tactic for Trump to say, "It's my way or the highway
* I think that if this bill doesn't succeed, they should try again
* They should recognize the problems in the replacement bill and work harder to fix them
* The problems is a lot of Republicans don't have the stomach for real reform
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/25/2017 • 31 minutes, 17 seconds
Why A BAT Will Clobber The Dollar – Ep. 236
* U.S. stocks ended the week with marginal gains
* In fact, the Dow Jones was up only about 12 points on the week
* The real action happened overseas
* Foreign markets were strong, particularly emerging markets
* They continue to smoke the performance of the U.S. stock market, confounding the experts
* The experts thought making America Great Again would be great for U.S. stocks, but it would be a problem for emerging markets
* And thus far, emerging markets have been the beneficiaries of the rally to a much greater degree than have domestic stocks
* Although the action this week was not really in the stock markets but in the currency markets, in the gold markets
* The dollar dropped by over 1% despite the fact that the Fed raised rates
* In fact, this was one of the worst weeks for the dollar in about 4-6 months
* Gold was up about $25; up 2% on the week
* "Hey! I thought gold was supposed to fall, when the Fed hikes rates
* Instead, the Fed hiked rates and the price of gold rose
* Buy the rumor, sell the fact, gold sold off on the anticipation of this rate hike and it rallied on the realization of what the market had anticipated, so that is not really surprising
* But if you go back to the very first rate hike
* That really marked the bottom in gold; ever since the Fed started hiking rates
* Gold has been rising
* The decline in gold took place when people anticipate those rate hikes
* By the time they realized the rate hikes, gold began to rise
* I think what will really accelerate the prices of gold
* Is the fact that rates are not going to nearly as much as the market anticipated
* So what has been built into the gold prices for rate hikes is not going to materialize
* The rumors were exaggerated
* The fact is not going to bear out the rumorPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/18/2017 • 37 minutes, 39 seconds
Fed Hikes Rates To Feign Confidence – Ep. 235
* Today the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time in 10 years
* Of course, the tightening cycle began with the first rate hike in December of 2015
* Followed by the second rate hike in December of last year
* And now, breaking from tradition, rather than waiting an entire year for the third hike
* We got the hike in March
* Of course the Fed had allowed market expectations to rise to 100% in anticipation of this rate hike
* When the Fed raised rates for the first time they talked about raising rates for an awfully long time before they actually got around to doing it
* Ironically, though, about 2 hours earlier than the rate hike announcement, the Atlanta Fed revised down again its projection for Q1 GDP to .9
* Remember - at the beginning of February, not even 6 weeks ago, the Atlant Fed was at 3.4% for Q1 GDP
* They're down to .9%! That is a huge collapse in estimates for economic growth in the first quarter
* And I'm sure it portends ill for subsequent quarters
* And remember - Janet Yellen has always said that the Federal Reserve is not on a preset course
* And that rate hikes that they are forecasting will only happen to the extent that their economic forecast pans out
* That all of their rosy expectations of economic recovery has come true
* Yet none of it has come true
* If anything, you've had a collapse in growth estimates since the last time the Fed met, yet
* The collapse in GDP forecast has done nothing to alter the Fed's path, because they've ignored all the data
* And they raised interest rates yet again
* That doesn't mean that interest rates are high, I mean they're still very low
* Remember, we're still not at a range between .75% and 1% so the average of that range, the midpoint, is still below 1%
* 1% was the emergency level that Alan Greenspan slashed rates to, after the dot com bubble bust and after the September 11 terrorist attack sent the U.S. economy into recession
* At that point, in a recession, the lowest rates got was 1%
* The Fed would have to hike rates again to get back up therePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/15/2017 • 33 minutes, 13 seconds
Trump Lauds Job Statistics He Once Impugned – Ep. 234
* I guess you could say a good jobs report is all in the eye of the beholder
* And when it comes to President Trump's eyes, he is now beholding an excellent jobs report
* Whereas a candidate, similar reports were described by Trump as phony, a hoax
* I have a lot more sympathy for Candidate Trump than I do for President Trump
* Now President Trump is trying to pretend that the jobs numbers that he used to be so critical of
* Are now reflecting what a great job he is doing as President
* When there's really no difference between the metrics of this job report and the ones we got under Obama
* With probably one exception
* And that is in the number we got is better than expected, though not as good as some had hoped, given the very strong ADP number we got earlier
* We got a surge in manufacturing jobs there was also a bump in construction jobs
* But I am very suspicious of the manufacturing jobs
* I know a lot of American manufacturers are really trying to curry favor with Donald Trump early in his Presidency
* And this could all be some Trump-related window dressing
* This is a long trend of hemorrhaging manufacturing jobs
* And I don't think this one blip necessarily means that trend has changed
* I wouldn't get too excited; it is a good thing to be creating goods-producing jobs, manufacturing jobs
* I'm not criticizing that
* But the question is, is it sustainable, is it real, or is it simply some smoke and mirrors
* Orchestrated selectively to make Trump look better early on
* So certain companies can get what they want from Trump when it comes to tax reform, or other issues where these companies may have a vested interest
* Let me go over the actual February Non-Farm Payroll numbers:
* The consensus was 200,000 jobs; 227,000 was the number created in January
* Most of that was prior to Trump becoming President, though subsequent to his election
* So we did 227,000 jobs in January and they actually revised that up to 238,000 jobs
* We did 235,000 in February, so actually slightly less, at least based on the initial estimate of jobs created in the prior month
* Unemployment rate did fall slightly from 4.8% to 4.7% and labor force participation inched up from 62.9% to 63% as more Americans re-enter the labor force
* Average hourly earnings, though, which were expected to rise .3% only rose .2%
* But they did revise the prior month from .1% .2%
* So I guess that was about a push
* .2% is not much of an increase in wages, especially when prices are rising 2-3 times as fast
* Remember January CPI was up .6 - triple the rate that wages are up
* The average work week remained the same at 34.4%
* As I said, what was a little bit different, though was the complexion of the jobs
* We did create jobs in manufacturing, for a changePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/11/2017 • 38 minutes, 34 seconds
Why TrumpCare Won’t Work, Either – Ep. 233
* It looks like the Republicans on Capitol Hill, with the blessing of Donald Trump, are trying to repeal one big healthcare program and replace it with another big government entitlement
* They're calling it TrumpCare
* First they were calling it ObamaCare Lght, but now they're embracing the term, "TrumpCare"
* Whatever it is, it is not going to work
* It's just going to be another disaster wrapped up in a different package
* But before I get into explaining this, I want to talk a little bit about the GDP numbers and the Atlanta Fed
* In my last podcast, I mentioned that even though the Fed was getting closer to the point at which it was going to raise interest rates again
* Even though it was talking tough on raising rates, the GDP estimates were collapsing
* Well, they collapsed again today
* Now the same Atlanta Fed that was at 1.8% for Q1 GDP is now at 1.3% as of today
* When we began the month of February -
* February 1st - they were looking for 3.4% GDP for the first quarter
* If you go back and listen to my podcast, at the time I recorded it
* I said, they're kidding. They've got to be crazy - there's no way we're going to get 3.4%
* They're going to have to come down, and that's all they've done
* And now we're at 1.3% and falling
* Now maybe part of that is because we got the worst trade deficit today in 5 years
* Although, I think the numbers were highly anticipated so I don't know why that would have come as a surprise
* And we got Consumer Credit for December and it was a huge drop in the increase of credit card debt
* Meaning that consumers took on a lot less credit card debt than Wall Street expected
* Now that's a good thing
* I don't like it when Americans go deeper into debt to buy stuff
* You've got a bubble economy that's 7%, people buying stuff they can't afford
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/8/2017 • 31 minutes, 44 seconds
Rate Hike Odds Surge As GDP Forecasts Collapse – Ep. 232
* According to Goldman Sachs, the odds of a Fed rate hike coming up at the March meeting, which is less than 2 weeks away is now 95%
* It was 90% before Yellen spoke, that was looking at the Fed Fund futures, in fact the probability of a rate hike had been rising all week based on speeches of a number of Fed officials
* Everyone indicating that a rate hike was coming soon
* Nobody actually said how soon
* But they kept talking about why raising interest rates would be appropriate
* Why they didn't want to wait too long
* But of course they always reiterate that they want to proceed slowly
* And of course, that they are data dependent
* Meaning that in order to deliver these rate hikes that they claim would be appropriate
* They will be slowly applied over some abstract period of time and
* The economy has to evolve according to their expectations
* Which probably is not going to happen
* But nonetheless, when Janet Yellen spoke, this was the last opportunity that a Fed official had to kind of dial back those expectations
* If Yellen didn't like the fact that the markets were 90% sure of a March rate hike
* She had the opportunity to dial that back in her rhetoric
* And she did not
* She allowed the markets to continue to price in a rate hike in the March meeting
* And that is why, now, the odds went from 90% to 95%, which is virtually a lock
* Which means that barring any huge drop in the stock market between now and the March meeting
* That hike's probably going to come
* Because I think that the reason the Fed feels confident to raise rates is that the Dow is at 21,000!
* Just like it felt confident to raise interest rates the first time in December of 2015 because the markets were giving a false signal that rate hikes were OK
* And, of course after the rates were hiked, the market thought about it again, and it dumped
* And then we had the worst January in the history of Janaries
* And the Fed waited until the following December to raise rates againPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/4/2017 • 44 minutes, 2 seconds
Trump To Make Government Greater Again – Ep. 231
* Last night, following tradition, President Trump delivered his first State of the Union Address
* Although people are saying that it's not technically a true State of the Union Address
* We'll have to wait another year for that; that he has been President for too short a period
* So it's just an address before the Joint Session of Congress
* But whatever you call it, apparently the president's address was well received
* Even some of the President's critics are giving him credit, although not all of his critics are being so kind to the President
* On the other hand, I was not impressed at all by what President Trump said
* If his main goal was not to offend anybody
* To get a positive reaction from the political classes, the media and Wall Street
* Then I guess he gave a great address
* But if you were looking for the President to actually indicate that true change is coming
* That America might actually be great again
* That President Trump might actually be a different type of President than his predecessors
* You got no indication that that was going to be the case
* In fact, Trump gave me every indication that his administration would be more of the same
* Donald Trump wants to make America great againPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/1/2017 • 37 minutes, 39 seconds
Trump Should Be a Statesman Not A Politician – Ep. 230
* Yesterday it looked like the Dow's winning streak may have come to an end
* We were up 10 days in a row, which was the biggest winning streak since 1987
* The Dow was down 50-60 points for the entire day
* It opened down and it stayed down until the very last hour, it started to rally
* In the last 15 minutes it managed to eke out a positive close
* To extend the winning streak to 11 consecutive day
* And of course, another record high for the DJIA
* For those bitcoin fans out there, I know a lot of you have given me crap because the price of bitcoin has gone up and just this week it got back above 1200, getting close to the price of gold
* Gold was up again this week, it got as high as $1260
* Remember on my last podcast I said we were building up a lot of resistance around $1240
* And I thought we would take it out and then we would see a little bit of a jump
* That's exactly what we did
* We closed at $1259.60
* An observation, though: gold stocks were down in general on Friday; they were also down on Thursday
* In fact, they had a sell-off at the end of the day
* I think the last 2% rise in the price of gold - we've had about a 4% drop in gold stocks
* Gold stocks rose early on, and they did a very good job of forecasting this gold rally
* So, the question is, are the gold stocks now accurately forecasting a sell-off, a profit-taking or a correction?
* That's possible, and if that is the case, I think that is a great buying opportunity because I don't think the correction will be very long-lived, or that deep
* And I do expect much, much higher prices later in the year
* But it's also possible that this skepticism on the part of gold traders
* Obviously if gold traders have been selling gold stocks these last several days, they thought that the price of gold was topping out
* So far, they've been wrong, because gold prices continue to rise despite the fact that gold has been falling for over a week
* Maybe they're not wrong; maybe they are just early
* Maybe they're just getting out early and a big gold drop is coming - we'll see
* But it's also possible that this is just a healthy degree of skepticism
* That gold is climbing this wall of worry and in fact gold stock traders are now so worried that they've been selling their gold stocks even as gold keeps risingPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/25/2017 • 36 minutes, 55 seconds
The Iceman Goeth, Robots Cometh – Ep. 229
* The Dow finished with yet another gain today
* We closed at 20,775.60
* I've been told that this is the longest consecutive winning streak for the Dow Jones since 1987
* Of course, we all remember how that streak came to a crashing end in October with the 1987 stock market crash
* We'll see if the market has better luck this time around
* We got the FOMC minutes released earlier today
* I think they were interpreted as being hawkish; remember, this is all on a relative scale, they're all doves now
* It is simply degrees of dovishness, there are no actual hawks on the FOMC or on any central bank
* The question is, "Who is more dovish and how dovish can you be?"
* But there were some statements that caused the markets to think, "Hey, maybe a rate hike is coming."
* Because I think the members said it would be appropriate to raise rates sometime soon
* What is sometime soon?
* Is that March, or is that April, May or June?
* That's still soon, in the scheme of things
* If you look at how slowly the Fed has been moving
* Glacial speed, when it comes to raising rates
* Soon can certainly be a few months from now
* It doesn't necessarily mean that it is going to be March
* They could have said March - "It might be appropriate to raise rates in March"
* They didn't say March - they just said soon
* Nobody really knows what soon is
* They did comment that they thought the markets might interpret gradual rate increases as meaning only 1 or 2 rate hikes a year
* And they were troubled by that, because maybe by saying that, by gradual, they mean 3 a year
* Not 1 or 2
* I heard some people saying,
* "Maybe the Fed is not going to go slowly."
* Even if they do 3 - we're still talking very gradual rate hikes, especially if you put it in context of how low rates are right now and how high inflation is already
* I keep hearing these comments from Fed officials
* They're doing interviews and they're saying, "Yes, we're making progress; we're moving slowly toward our goal of 2% inflation."
* 2% inflation! They left that in the dust
* The last number we got in January showed a year over year increase of 2.5%
* So why are they saying they're making progress toward getting to 2% when they've already zoomed past it
* They're looking at it now in the rear view mirrorPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/23/2017 • 34 minutes, 42 seconds
Inflation Finally Rears Its Head – Ep. 228
* We had a very significant day in the currency and gold markets yesterday
* We had some good follow through today that really buttresses the point that I want to make
* We got some economic news that was released yesterday that would have been considered bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold
* By most people, other than me, who trade currencies and who trade gold
* But the fact that gold did not sell off or the dollar did not rally was very significant
* The news was the CPI and Retail Sales
* First of all, Retail Sales came out stronger than expected, they were looking for a gain of .1% and we got a gain of .4%
* They actually revised the prior month's gain from +.6% to +.1%
* Now a lot of the gain in retail sales, though has to do with the fact that prices are higher
* Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation
* Prices are going up
* Retail sales may be going up, particularly things like gasoline
* It's not just the price of gas that's going up; everything is going up
* The CPI came out at the same time as Retail Sales and that is the bigger number
* We got a .6% rise in consumer prices
* That's versus the expected .3%
* Even the core - you take out food and energy - we were up .3% there versus an estimate of .2%
* Year over year CPI 2.5% that's the official number
* Obviously prices are going up a lot faster than that but according to the government they're going up at 2.5%
* Even if you take out food and energy and just look at the core, year over year the change is 2.3%
* Now remember the Fed is saying their target is 2%
* When Janet Yellen testified this week she said that she's confident this week that we're going to hit her objective
* Well, we've already surpassed her objectivePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/17/2017 • 29 minutes, 43 seconds
When Yellen Talks Why Do People Still Listen? – Ep. 227
* Today Janet Yellen was up on Capitol Hill, it was the first of her 2-day testimony
* She was before the U.S. Senate today; tomorrow she will be testifying before the House of Representatives
* She talks about monetary policy; we have a bunch of Senators and Congressmen who engage in political grandstanding
* To me, a lot of the people asking Janet Yellen questions are really just trying to speak for sound bites for the media, trying to score brownie points for their constituents
* One senator had to make some comment about global warming - do you think global warming is one of the things the Fed considers when it sets monetary policy?
* Elizabeth Warren is trying to get Janet Yellen to criticize the Trump administration's efforts to pull back Dodd-Frank
* Because she believes it was the bank that caused the financial crisis
* She doesn't lay any of the blame at the foot of Congress or the Federal Reserve or the artificially low interest rates
* She thinks it was just Wall Street greed that blew up Wall Street and that the reason we haven't had another financial crisis was because of the great legislation Dodd-Frank
* And that somehow, if any bit of that is rolled back, it's going to unleash another wave of rampant Wall Street speculation and blow up the economy all over again
* Probably one of the dumbest comments from one of the senators is why we need more minorities on the Federal Reserve
* The senator commented to Janet Yellen that we needed more African Americans on the Fed because they represent a significant percentage of the population, of the work force, and they need some representation at the Fed
* I'm thinking, "What is this guy talking about?"
* Do you have to be black to conduct monetary policy on behalf of other blacks?
* Does that mean that only whites can conduct monetary policy for whites?
* What is black monetary policy?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/15/2017 • 32 minutes, 58 seconds
Trade Deficits Make America Poorer Not Richer – Ep.226
* I will be in Orlando tomorrow for the Money Show
* I will be there Wednesday and Thursday returning Friday
* I have several speaking events, a couple of workshops
* If you're in the Orlando area, come by, it's free to register online
* You can pick up your badge on site
* We'll have a booth in the exhibit all, you can come by and meet some EuroPac employees
* We look forward to seeing clients and listeners
* Last week I spoke about President Trump and his weak dollar policy
* He thinks the dollar is too low, the euro is too low, the yen is too low, the Chinese yuan is too low
* Over the weekend Germany's finance minister came out and agreed with President Trump
* He agrees that the euro is too low
* We know that the Bundesbank does not approve of the easy money policies, the QE, the negative interest rates that Draghi and the ECB have force upon them
* I believe that rising German opposition as well as rising inflation both in Germany and throughout the European union will ultimately force the ECB to abandon their monetary policy
* Maybe even at the same time that the Federal Reserve is finally admitting that they're about to ease again
* We got the jobs numbers on Friday, I did a video blog about it
* To me, the numbers seem troubling for the Fed because even though we created better than 200,000 jobs the number of people who rejoined the workforce, who now want jobs jumped dramatically
* So you have a lot of people looking for jobs; the jobs aren't there
* So the unemployment rate is going to come up
* There will be wage pressures, and that is going to push the Fed in an easing direction
* In fact, we got some numbers that came out today on Consumer Credit
* Credit card debt grew by the smallest amount since 2013, which is a good thing
* We don't want consumers taking on credit, it's bad economically to borrow money to consume
* I really made that point in my book, "How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes"
* If you haven't read it, pick up a copy at schiffbooks.com
* The point is, it's good that consumers are taking on less debt
* Of course, if you're a retailer, and you're depending on those indebted consumers to go deeper into debt to buy your stuff, that's a bad signPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/8/2017 • 32 minutes
Rising Unemployment Is Just The Excuse The Fed’s Been Waiting For
* Yesterday we got the first jobs report of the year and the way Wall Street and the media seem to be spinning it:
* "It was a good report!"
* It was good news because the headline number beat expectations:
* We created 227,000 jobs in January vs the 175,000 that had been expected
* Of course it was an improvement on the 157,000 jobs which was a disappointing report in December
* But once again, if you look beneath the headline number, you'll find that there are a lot more problems to this report than the media is reporting
* First of all, as always, the lion's share of these jobs are lower-paying service sector jobs
* They're in retail trade, leisure and hospitality
* So we're not creating the types of jobs that will Make America Great Again
* In fact, if you look at the higher paying jobs - manufacturing, mining logging
* These jobs are barely adding workers, if not losing workers
* But the bigger story here has to do with what's happening to labor force participation, wages and unemployment
* The official U3 Unemployment rate went up from 4.7% to 4.8%
* The more revealing U6 number, which I think paints a more accurate picture of the true state of the labor market
* That went up from 9.2% to 9.4%
* Even Donald Trump, when he was campaigning, said that that number was far more accurate than Obama's official numbers
* Why did the unemployment rate go up so much, considering that we had 227,00 jobs created?
* The reason was that we had over 700,000 workers re-enter the labor force
* This goes against the trend that has dominated the entirety of the Obama administration
* Where we saw a mass exodus of workers leaving the labor force
* In fact, the labor force participation rate went up in January from 62.7% to 62.9%
* First of all, why did so many Americans decide to re-enter the labor force in January?
* Maybe there are 2 possible explanations and maybe they're both accurate:
* One might have to do with all the optimism surrounding the Donald Trump Presidency
* Remember, Donald Trump campaigned that he was going to be the greatest jobs President
* And it's possible that a lot of people believe that this is going to happen
* So they are re-entering the labor force to land one of these great jobs that President Trump will be delivering
* You have to enter the labor force in order to apply for one of these jobs
* Another reason is that the people who have been "sitting out" of labor force participation
* Maybe circumstances are finally catching up with them, maybe they're running out of money
* Maybe the cost of living has risen to the point that they have to, by necessity, find a jobPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/4/2017 • 34 minutes, 41 seconds
U. S. Dollar Has Worst January In 30 Years! – Ep. 225
* The month of January came to an end, and it didn't play out the way most people believed it would
* Remember when the year began, everybody was optimistic on the U.S. dollar
* Remember I said that it was the most crowded trade
* It was just like gold the year before
* Everybody was convinced that now that Trump was President we were going to have all this fiscal stimulus
* The Fed was going to be tightening rates more aggressively
* The dollar had no place else to go but up;
* Everybody started the year long the dollar
* I just read that this was the worst January for the dollar in almost 30 years!
* For all the fanfare and the hype about Dow 20,000
* The Dow was only up about .5% in the month of January
* You would think that it was much higher than that
* And of course, measured in any other currency, the Dow was down quite a bit
* In fact, if you just look at our mutual funds
* To just give you an example of what's going on overseas
* First of all, our Gold Fund up 12% in the month of January
* But my International Value Fund was up 6.5% in the month of January
* That fund is the #1 fund on Morningstar so far in 2017
* It was also the #1 fund in its category of 400 or so for all of 2016
* And it's already the #1 fund for 2017
* But if you look at the returns that are being achieved internationally
* Investing outside the dollar
* Investing in gold stocks
* That's where all the money is being made
* It's not being made in the U.S. Stock Market
* In other currencies, it's actually, it's only up in dollars
* But it's down in terms of just about every other currency
* So you wouldn't know that from listening to the pundits
* Everybody is so excited about what's going on
* Again this is probably how it all started when George Bush came in
* People were still initially enthusiastic about what was going to happen
* But the honeymoon didn't last longPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/2/2017 • 28 minutes, 36 seconds
America Will Lose Any Trade War – Ep. 224
* Earlier this morning we got the first look at Q4 GDP
* As I suggested on the last podcast, in fact as I have been saying all along
* We did see a sharp decline from the Q3 3.5% GDP
* The consensus was for a 2.2% estimate for growth in Q4
* And we came in at 1.9%
* Quite a way below estimates and psychologically below the 2% number
* Part of the reason was a big drop in exports
* I talked about this last quarter
* One of the reasons we got that 3.5% jump in Q3 GDP
* Was the big surge in soybean exports, because of a drought overseas
* Which created a temporary increase for U.S. beans
* The rest of it was an inventory build, which I still think needs to be worked off
* In fact, I think we're going to work off a lot of it in the first quarter of this year
* That's the first estimate, and, who knows, they may downward revise it the next time they give us the numbers
* If you now take the first 3 quarters of GDP growth, and use the first estimate for Q4
* For the entire year of 2016 GDP grew at just 1.6%
* That is the lowest number since 2009, tied with 2011, at 1.6% also
* If you remember 2011 GDP growth was so weak that they launched QE3 for 2012
* So they ended QE2, the economy started rolling over
* And when they got that 1.6% GDP for the entire year
* The Fed very quickly came out and launched QE3 the following year to goose the GDP back up
* What are they doing now? Not only is the Fed not preparing to launch another round of QE
* They are tightening monetary policy
* They're saying, "We're going to raise interest rates 3 times, even though GDP is as low as it has been for the entire "recovery'
* Even though the economy is decelerating, we are going to sedate it with rate hikesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/28/2017 • 35 minutes, 48 seconds
Will Trump Change the Game Or The Players? – Ep. 222
* Short and not-so-sweet. Maybe that's how you would describe President Trump's inaugural speech
* Which, I think was the briefest since Jimmy Carter
* But now, Donald J. Trump is the 45th President of these United States
* I did in general like his speech; I agree with much of what Donald Trump had to say
* Talking about how bad things are in the U.S. economy
* Yes, there were some people who benefited
* People in Washington certainly benefited, certainly Washington has been booming, right?
* Because they've been sucking all the wealth out of the rest of the country
* So the bureaucrats and certain segments of the population have benefited
* From central planning and central banking and the cheap money and the bubbles
* But Donald Trump hit the nail on the head
* When he talked about all the factories like tombstones littering the landscape
* How our wealth has been sucked out
* The Middle Class has been hollowed out and the country is hurting
* All this is true, and I like the fact that he says we're going to take back the government for the people
* Take it away from the elites, take it away from the bureaucrats and bring the power back to the people
* All that is great.
* The question is, What exactly does Donald Trump mean by that?
* Does he mean, get the government off the people's backs?
* Does he mean unshackle us from government
* Get rid of all the regulations, get rid of all the taxes and government spending
* Get rid of all the bubble blowing
* Let's have sound money and higher interest rates
* Let's have a real economy so that individual Americans can pull themselves up out of the ditch on their own?
* That we can roll up our sleeves and work our way out of this gigantic hole that the government placed us in
* And if it's going to be free enterprise, limited government and freedom?
* Of that's what he means by "Taking back the government for the people"
* Then, that's great
* But what if he doesn't mean that?
* What if he means a Trumpian "New Deal"?
* What if he's talking about government proactively doing things to "help" the middle class
* Like big spending on infrastructure, where the government employs the people directly
* And creates jobs, like they did during the Great Depression?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/21/2017 • 30 minutes, 40 seconds
Trump Honeymoon Ends Before Marriage Begins – Ep. 221
* As I said on a prior podcast, this could be the first Presidential Honeymoon to end before the marriage officially begins
* Donald Trump will not be sworn in until Friday
* Yet the Honeymoon already appears to be over for the Trump Trade
* The dollar continues to decline again today; gold continues to rise
* Confounding the experts who, at the beginning of the year, predicted the opposite
* Gold up again today about $14 it was up $4-5 yesterday, on the Martin Luther King holiday
* We're now at about $1217 for the price of gold
* We're still below where we were the day Trump won
* But this is the highest we've been in about 6 weeks, maybe more
* It's certainly the highest for the year
* Dollar down across the board; dollar index at the low for the year
* Still up from Trump's victory but down quite a bit from the highs
* Of course, other currencies, even though the dollar index is down 2%
* You've got currencies like the Australian dollar up 4.5%
* So that currency has pretty much recovered everything that it lost based on the Trump victory
* Gold, although it hasn't recovered everything, it's still up almost 6% so far year to date
* Silver's up better than 7% year to date
* Gold stocks, look at the GDX, up 12% so far this year
* That means that gold stocks by far is the top performing sector in 2017
* They were by far the top performing sector in 2016
* I actually think the out-performance in 2017 will be even greater than 2016
* The Dow, down again, at one point it was down close to 100
* Dow transports ended down over 100
* I think the Dow is basically flat on the year - slightly positive
* The NASDAQ was down 35 points; S&P down as well
* So U.S. stocks are barely moving
* Foreign stocks - some of these emerging markets are up huge, especially priced in U.S. dollars
* All the foreign markets, thus far in 2017 are beating the U.S. market
* Again, that is not what all the experts were expecting from the Trump RallyPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/18/2017 • 29 minutes, 24 seconds
Government Can’t Do Anything Right – Ep. 220
* It's Friday the 13th and it is a Friday before a 3-day holiday weekend
* Monday, of course is Martin Luther King Day
* The stock market will be closed in observance of the holiday
* Once again, I guess Friday the 13th was bad luck for those hoping for Dow 20,000
* In fact, the Dow finished the day Down, it was a slight decline for the Dow
* But not so for gold; gold was up again
* The Dollar was actually down again
* In fact, this year is already shaping up to be a mirror image of what everybody expected when the year began
* The Dow is up slightly, about a half a percent; the S&P is maybe up about 1-1/2 percent
* But look at the dollar; the dollar index is down 1%
* In terms of foreign currencies, the Dow is actually down
* The dollar index is mostly the euro
* If you take a look at some of the other currencies, the Canadian Dollar, for example, is up 2.5% so far in 2017
* The Australian dollar is up 4%
* These are some pretty big moves early in the year
* Remember, everybody was bullish on the dollar
* That was the trade, it was so crowded, everybody was in it
* Every strategist that I saw on financial news at the end of last year and early this year
* Was long the dollar, short the Aussie, short Canada, short the euro, short the yen
* Meanwhile, all these currencies are going up
* I think they're going a lot higher and I think the shorts are going to lose a lot of money
* Take a look at gold stocks
* Gold stocks are up about 10% so far in 2017 only 2 weeks into the year
* This is already a much stronger start for gold stocks than we had last year
* And of course, last year was a great year for gold stocks despite the fact that they sold off toward the end of the year
* Based on all the hype surrounding Donald Trump and all the great economic growth that we are going to get
* And how the Fed is going to be raising rates even faster and the dollar was going to be even stronger
* I knew all that was a bunch of nonsense
* People still believe it, but the markets are already showing it to be a false paradigm
* And most of the Wall Street strategists are going to once again miss out on these opportunities
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/14/2017 • 36 minutes, 10 seconds
Will Trump Follow Obama In His Failure To Deliver? – Ep. 219
* The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism in the month of December, so this is post the election of Donald Trump
* Shot up from 98.4 in November to 105.8
* This is the highest level in 12 years - since before Obama was President
* And it's the biggest monthly jump in 37 years
* You have to go all the way back to 1980, the election of Ronald Regan to find a moment in time where you saw this big an increase in optimism, in confidence among small business owners
* Remember, it was Michelle Obama not too long ago
* Saying, "This is horrible, there's no hope anymore in America!"
* Well, small business owners haven't been this hopeful since I was in high school
* Why are they so optimistic?
* Well, first of all, it's more a testimony to how horrible things have been over the last 8 years
* People are just hopeful that now there's going to be some relief, that Barack Obama is gone
* Because the lat 8 years have been very, very difficult for small businesses
* First of all, if you're running a small business, you can't take advantage of zero percent interest rates
* You can't just show up at the discount window and borrow from the Fed
* Also, you can't sell bonds into the bond market, like big corporations can
* If you're a small business, and you need credit, you've got to go to a bank and get a loan
* But the banks don't have any money - there's no savings - nobody's putting money into the bank
* And no banker wants to carry a risky loan on his books
* When he can just own U.S. Treasuries
* The regulators are all over you, if you actually make a loan to a business
* So businesses haven't gotten capital
* Meanwhile the cost of doing business has gone up because there's been all sorts of regulations that have been added to the burden of business
* Over the lat 8 yearsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/11/2017 • 37 minutes, 25 seconds
Obama Hands Trump Huge Bubble – Ep. 218
* Yesterday we got the final jobs report of the Obama era,
* We got the December Non-Farm Payroll.
* Now technically, when we get the January number, the first Friday of February,
* Half of that would have been during the Obama presidency,
* But because we won't get the official news until the Trump presidency,
* I'm sure that Donald Trump is going to take the credit, or maybe have to deal with the blame,
* Depending on how that number ends up being received, whether it beats the consensus or misses,
* But this is really the final jobs number for Obama.
* The number came out O.K.
* It missed the consensus estimate, which was 175,000 jobs,
* And the actual number, at least until they revise it next month was 156,000
* So that was below what was expected.
* Now they did revise upward the prior month from 178,000 to 204,000
* And the month before that was revised down a bit
* So I guess, when you take all the revisions, it was probably about a push on the number.
* This report should have been seen as not so good,
* Most of what I was reading was about how strong, not only this report was,
* But the entire job-creation legacy of Barack Obama
* This is what you get from the mainstream media
* That peddles all the fake news
* About what a great economy President Obama is handing off to Donald Trump;
* That we have really low unemployment -
* The official unemployment rate kicked up from 4.6, but still 4.7,
* So, low unemployment, all these jobs being created,
* Forgetting about the fact that once again, you're talking about low-paying, part-time jobs that have been created
* In fact, the number of Americans not in the work force grows again;
* It wasn't a big jump, but it was still a jump
* To a new all-time record high.
* So labor force participation has been eviscerated during the Obama years.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/7/2017 • 38 minutes, 29 seconds
Bitcoin Again Approaches Parity with Gold – Ep. 217
* This is another big week for economic data; it is a holiday-shortened week
* On Friday we get the big Non-Farm Payroll report
* If it's a good number, somehow Donald Trump will try to take credit for it, as he has for the rise in the stock market
* But I think that the job numbers, while maybe not bad just yet, but I think we will have a lot of problems with the non-farm payroll numbers in 2017 as the air starts coming 0ut of the part-time job bubble while Trump is in office
* But we did get some economic news today, most importantly, the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and
* What do you know? The members of the FOMC are concerned that maybe, they're not optimistic enough when it comes to growth
* Because of the stimulus packages that may be passed by Donald Trump, that they may be wrong, and that the economy could grow faster than they think
* They also were worried that they might overshoot on the downside on unemployment
* Unemployment could actually get even lower than what they thought
* And therefore that ultra-low unemployment may put some upward pressure on inflation
* Of course, this is all the Keynesian/Phillips Curve myth
* That low levels of unemployment are what cause inflation
* Ironically, it is the Federal Reserve that causes inflation and there is going to be
* Consumer price increases that are the consequences of the inflation that the Fed has already created and that the Fed is going to create
* In fact, if we do have a stimulus package that gets through Congress early in 2017
* That includes tax cuts and government spending increases which results in a larger deficit
* The inflationary forces are not going to be the debt itself, but the Fed's willingness to accommodate those deficits with more aggressive monetary easing
* In fact, the complexion of the FOMC is actually going to get more dovish next year as some of the so-called hawks, and of course, none of them are actually hawks, it's all degrees of dovishness
* Some of the less dovish members will be leaving and will probably be replaced by members that are just as dovish as everybody else
* So I think the Fed will be willing and able to accommodate these deficits
* That is what is going to cause inflationPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/5/2017 • 25 minutes, 11 seconds
Hollywood Minimum Wage Hypocrisy – Ep. 216
* The Dow 20,000 party is going to have to wait until 2017
* Although I wouldn't necessarily buy a ticket for January
* The selloff that started this week may resume in the first week of the new year
* The dow rang out the old year with a 57-point loss to cap a losing week
* Probably the first down week since the Trump victory
* The Dow now at 19,762 - the close on the Dow for the year
* Most people think it's just a matter of time; we can easily rally early on in the new year
* But again, there should be a lot more selling pressure in the new year
* I mentioned this on the last podcast
* A lot of people who had gains didn't want to take them in December because hopefully the taxes will be lower next year, so why pay higher taxes sooner, when you can pay lower taxes later?
* We'll see what happens in early January
* If we ring in the new year like we rang out the old, it could be a long time before we get to celebrate Dow 20,000
* I'm sure eventually we will, even if we don't do it right away
* Everything goes up when you're measuring in terms of U.S. dollars, so it is inevitable that the Dow will get to 20,000
* The question is, what will Dow 20,000 be worth in purchasing power - that's a whole different story
* It's easy to go up in nominal terms, it's a whole different thing to go up in real terms
* The Dow actually had a pretty good gain this year; it was up about 13-13 1/2 percent
* Almost all those gains happening post-Trump
* Although the problem for Donald Trump, is that he is claiming credit for this rally
* What he should be doing is saying
* "This is a bubble, I said it was a bubble when I was a candidate, it's still a bubble, now it's even bigger"
* But he owns this bubble now; he has embraced it
* Donald Trump has come out and said, "The market is going up because of me."Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/31/2016 • 41 minutes, 15 seconds
Ep. 215: Irrational Exuberance Trumps All
* The Dow 20,000 party is going to have to wait - at least for another day
* The Dow was down a little bit today - 23 to 19,918
* The broader market was a bit weaker than the Dow
* The markets continue to shrug off very weak economic news that came out throughout the day
* We got bombarded with all sorts of negative pieces of news that ordinarily, maybe before the election of Donald Trump, would have weighed down the market
* Certainly it would have weighed on the currency markets
* The dollar would have been very weak and gold would have had a big rally
* Instead, gold was down a little bit, and the dollar rose a little bit despite very weak economic data that I will get to
* I want to start off by focusing on the stock market and the optimism which is really quite ridiculous and unfounded
* Part of the reason for the rally, though, is a lack of selling
* We have a lot of people mindlessly buying the markets, but you don't have a lot of selling
* One of the reasons is that people would rather sell in January than in December
* People are enthusiastic about Trump's presidency because he will cut taxes
* If you have a gain in the stock market, why realize that gain now in the waning trading days of 2016
* If you sell now, not only do you have to get your check into the IRS by April of next year
* But also, you've got to pay the current tax rate
* If you wait until the firs week of January, you don't have to pay taxes until a year from this coming April
* You have all that time to use the money and the tax rates may be a lot lower
* So why sell now? A lot of people are being given that advice; don't sell now - wait until January
* Who knows - this market could ring in the new year with a major sell-offPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/23/2016 • 30 minutes, 38 seconds
Fed Fakes Confidence With Another Dec. Quarter Point Rate Hike
* On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve did exactly what they did last year
* They waited until the last possible meeting to nudge the Federal Funds rate by 1/4 of 1%
* So now, after 2 years of tightening, the lower bound of the Fed's range has gone from zero to 1/2 of 1%
* Now Janet Yellen said the Fed made this decision to lift rates because of its confidence in the U.S economy
* That is complete nonsense
* If the Fed were confident in the U.S economy, rates would be much higher than a half of a percent
* The Fed would have raised rates a long time ago and by much more than this
* In fact, they could have lifted rates by more than 25 basis points on Wednesday
* Yet, they had so little confidence in the economy that this is what they did
* In fact, I believe that the only reason the Fed raised rates this December
* Is the same reason they did so last December: they did it despite having no confidence in the economy
* But they didn't want to send a message that they were that worried, so they raised interest rates by the smallest possible amount
* And they also did it to try to preserve their credibility when it comes to talking about future interest rates
* Think about one half of one percent
* When Alan Greenspan slashed interest rates in the aftermath of the September 11 disaster and the bursting of the dot com bubble
* When the stock market was plunging and the economy was in recession, he was so worried about the economy that he lowered rates down to 1%
* Now Yellen is so confident in the economy, the highest she's willing to raise them is 1/2 of 1%?
* This is half of where they were lowered in panic by Greenspan?
* So the fact that rates are only 1/2%, what does that tell you about the true confidence that Janet Yellen and the rest of the Federal Reserve have in the U.S. Economy?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/16/2016 • 37 minutes, 4 seconds
A Candidate’s Bubble Is a President-Elect’s Bull Market – Ep. 214
* It's been a while since my last podcast and I've gotten quite a few emails from people wondering what happened to me
* I was out of the country for about a week, and I did manage to get one podcast off from my hotel room
* But when I got back, I was backed up with work, and by the time I caught up, I came down with a case of laryngitis, which has still not completely gone away
* I want to start off by talking about the stock market
* The Dow hit a new record high today; inter-day we got to 19,824 - we closed at 19,796, getting closer and closer to the 20,000 level
* NASDAQ, on the other hand was down to day
* But one of the interesting things about this is that the rally is predicated on Donald Trump and all of the great things that are going to happen as a result of his election
* And of course, the very people who are buying this Trump rally are the same people who are telling us what a disaster it would have been if Trump won
* He won - but now they've reversed course
* I'm sure if Hillary had won the market would be rallying now with a different spin - we dodged the bullet of Trump
* The markets were looking for an excuse to rally, and there were a lot of shorts in the market, so now, we're rallying
* But the interesting thing about this is, if you remember when Donald Trump was running for President
* He kept talking about the "big, fat, ugly bubble"
* He was talking about the stock market
* Now, if you listen to Trump talk, he loves the stock market - he's taking credit for the gains in the stock market
* He wants us to judge him based on when he was elected, not based on when he is inaugurated because he is trying to claim credit for the gains in the stock market
* Wait a minute - if the stock market was a big, fat, ugly bubble before Trump was elected
* And if now the stock market is much higher
* Isn't it bigger, isn't it fatter, isn't it uglier now?
* If that's the case, why doesn't Donald Trump still call it a bubble?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/13/2016 • 33 minutes, 56 seconds
QE4 Is Going To Be Huge – Ep. 213
* The Trump fantasy rally continued today, of course the big irony here is that all of the stock traders who were so worried about a Donald Trump presidency
* Now, he's Ronald Regan re-incarnated
* They're partying like it's 1983 - when Regan first stepped in the market had a very difficult couple of years
* We went through a recession before we got that Regan Rally - we're going to skip all that
* It's amazing that people believe you can have reckless monetary policy for 8 years
* You can have zero percent interest rates, you can have all this quantitative easing
* You can have this gigantic bubble, and we can magically go from a bubble economy to a real economy
* Without any pain inbetween
* If that really were the case, the Fed would have tried to raise interest rates a long time ago
* The fact that they've been stuck at zero is proof that they really can't go up
* Now everybody seems to dismiss all these concerns simply because Donald Trump will be President
* Even though this is the exact same guy who scared the bejesus out of everybody right up until the moment that he was elected, and now, of course everything is going to be great
* It's not going to be great - this fantasy is going to come crashing into a wall of reality
* Meanwhile, the stock market rally did fizzle out today, the market was up most of the day
* The Dow managed to eke out about a 2 point gain
* Although the NASDAQ was down about 50 points
* Most of the action was in other markets
* Oil prices up about 10% on the day
* Crude up just under $4/barrel - just below $49/barrel at close
* The catalyst for the surge in oil prices was an agreement by OPEC to restrict output
* Finally OPEC getting their act together - the Saudis, the Russians working together to reduce production and increase the price of oil
* Of course, with the dollar continuing to strengthen, that means oil prices are rising even faster for everyone outside the U.S.
* Bond market getting clobbered again today; higher oil prices not good for the bond market
* We also got some stronger than expected economic data out today
* A lot of it having to do with the euphoria surrounding the Trump win
* We did get the ADP jobs number today the precursor the official number the Labor Department puts out on Friday
* This one was better than expected by about 50-60,000 jobs
* They revised downward the prior month by more than was expected
* Because of the recent change in methodology, these numbers are not too reliablePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/1/2016 • 31 minutes, 21 seconds
Trumped Up Irrational Exuberance Continues – Ep. 212
* The Dow Jones is in record territory, closing above 19,000; they're already starting to talk Dow 20,000 now
* The markets are euphoric
* All the traders who were so convinced that President Trump would be a disaster for the stock market, now think it's a boom for the stock market
* It shows you how fickle investors are, but also how quickly the narrative can flip
* Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with the fundamentals
* I think traders are trying to push the markets in a particular direction, and they're just grasping for reasons to justify it
* Obviously, what they're talking about now is all this extra economic growth and inflation (supposedly inflation is a good thing)
* This is going to result from the the massive fiscal stimulus that we're going to get from the Trump administration
* Of course, everybody is ignoring the monetary drag that is already evident from the bloodbath in the bond market
* And this is going to continue, in fact if you look at the trend lines
* We've broken some trend lines now, which were down in yield and up in bond prices that have been in existence since 2007
* So we have done some serious technical damage to the bond market
* The 10-year yield, right now, is at 2.357, which is still low
* But it has moved up by 32% in the last 2 weeks
* That is a huge percentage increase in long-term interest rates
* First of all, this is already decimating the commercial real estate market, which is the bulk of Donald Trump's net worth
* He's going to be running his business from the White House while he is running the country; he says that's perfectly legal
* Clearly he doesn't want to see a continuation of the collapse in the commercial real estate market
* But believe me, these cap rates are moving up rapidly
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/24/2016 • 40 minutes, 35 seconds
Yellen’s Remarks Cause Markets To Anticipate The Impossible – Ep. 211
* The stock market continues to ride the Trump wave to new highs, in fact the Russell 2000 hit an all-time record high today
* The enthusiasm for stocks not being dampened by the carnage in the bond market
* We now have the yield on the 10-year treasury up at around almost 2.3
* And the yield on the 30-year now, just below 3% - 2.99
* Yields are still low, but nowhere near as low as they were
* And of course, nowhere near as low as they're headed
* It's not just the fact that bond yields are rising, but the rapidity with which they're rising
* And the technical damage that is being done
* This again, as I said in an earlier podcast this could be the beginning of an explosive move up in interest rates
* And right now, nobody seems to care, least of all Janet Yellen
* She testified today - her supposedly hawkish testimony is one of the reasons that gold sold off today and the dollar rallied
* Before she spoke, gold was positive on the day
* She did say it would likely be appropriate to raise rates "soon"
* And everybody interprets "soon" as, the next chance they get, which is less than a month from now
* Although, if the Fed is really determined to raise interest rates in December
* Why not just say it?
* Why say it may be appropriate to raise them soon?
* Just say, "It's appropriate to raise them in December"
* They still want to leave themselves plenty of wiggle room
* Even though the markets are saying it's a 95% probability
* The Fed is still being very coy and data dependent
* I think what's more important for the markets is the fact that Janet Yellen acknowledged
* That if we get a fiscal stimulus - which she doesn't even think is needed -
* She pointed out that we have a growing economy, everything is good, the unemployment rate is very low
* And that stimulus now in the form of tax cuts or extra government spending could overheat the economy
* And that she will have to adjust her monetary policy based on what Congress and President Trump ultimately decide to do
* That's what's scaring the bond markets, because what Yellen is saying, is that
* If Congress and Trump want to step on the gas, she's going to have to tap on the breaks
* To prevent this thing from overheating, meaning that with unemployment already so low
* Any stimulus now, risks making inflation too high
* Meaning that the Fed would have to act to rein it in
* Even though she still suggests that the pace of rate hikes will be slow
* She's implying that the pace will pick up if need be to offset the stimulus effects of tax cuts and spending increases
* And that is what is rattling the credit markets
* But what Janet Yellen or nobody else seems to understand is that any significant rise in long-term interest rates will crush this bubble economyPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/18/2016 • 22 minutes, 55 seconds
Fiscal Stimulus Impossible Without Monetary Stimulus To Finance It – Ep. 210
* What a difference a day makes
* Between Tuesday evening, when the markets first began to realize that Donald Trump was going to win the election and the predictions of collapsing stocks and soaring gold prices appear to be taking hold
* Because at one point the Dow was down about 800 points and gold was up about $60
* All of a sudden, the sentiment started to shift and by the time the U.S. markets had opened for trading
* Gold had lost its rally, the stock market had recovered its losses
* And we began a huge rally, in fact, the Dow was up about 1,000 points this week
* This was one of the biggest up weeks in the Dow since 2011
* Also the gold market ended up down, I think it was down about $70 on the week
* Better than $100 below the high it hit on Tuesday night
* Silver also down about $1
* Gold & silver stocks down closer to 20%
* The opposite was going on in the bond market, it had its worst week since 2013
* It looks like a lot more carnage can come if we really start to break down; yields are still low
* The yield on the 10-year is just above 2.1 and on the 30-year it's just above 2.9
* These are still low yields, but they're not nearly as low as they were
* What's more important is the momentum in this move and how much higher interest rates could potentially go
* As this bond bubble deflates
* What is responsible for this change of heart?
* Everybody was so convinced that the markets would tank if Trump was elected that we had a 300+ point rally on Monday, the day after the FBI decided that they weren't going to do anything about the Clinton email scandal
* And the market rallied because people thought, "Oh, OK, this means that Hillary is a shoe-in."
* And then Trump became President and the market rallied even more
* And the opposite on gold; gold sold off when it looked like Hillary would win, and it had a big rally when it seemed that she wouldn't
* After we got Trump, the metals went the other way
* What is responsible for this change of heart?
* Remember, I always said if didn't make sense that people thought Hillary was good for the stock market
* What did Hillary mean for business?
* More regulation, more government, higher taxes
* What was Donald Trump promising?
* He was promising tax cuts, tax reform, repatriation, regulatory reform, repeal Dodd-Frank, repeal Obamacare
* So he's saying, we're going to take away the regulation, we're going to take away the taxes
* That has got to be good for the economy, so why were people so excited about Hillary
* When Trump was talking about a pro-growth, pro-business agenda?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/12/2016 • 45 minutes, 20 seconds
Making America Great Again Will Be Much Harder Than Voters Think – SchiffReport
* It is Wednesday, November 9, 2016, one day following one of the biggest political upsets in U.S. political history
* As Donald Trump shocked everybody by defeating Hillary Clinton
* Hillary Clinton was supposedly the most qualified person ever to seek the U.S. Presidency, and Donald Trump had no experience whatsoever
* And the establishment had already sworn in Hillary Clinton; it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that she was going to win
* I think she was almost a 10:1 favorite even on the day of the polls
* Even the early exit polls were predicting a Clinton win
* All the while, I felt in my gut that Donald Trump was going to win this election
* Why did I think he had such a strong probability of winning?
* I understood what almost no one in the mainstream media got, and that is the phony nature of the U.S. recovery
* The entire time President Obama was congratulating himself for having gotten us out of the mess created by his predecessor, and bragging about the strength of the recovery
* And labeling all critics as "fiction peddlers"
* I understood that the "fiction that was peddled" was in fact, reality
* And the real fiction peddler was the Commander in Chief
* Not only President Obama, but the Federal Reserve - Janet Yellen and the rest of her cronies at the Fed
* Constantly talking up the U.S. recovery and how the strengthening recovery would somehow result in higher interest rates
* Of course, Wall Street had a vested interest in peddling that fiction
* So everybody believed that the economy was strong, and therefore the voters would want to sign up for 4 more years
* After all, if Obama was responsible for the recovery voters would want to continue that recovery under Clinton
* They would not want to go back to the supposed failed policies of Bush that somehow would be adopted by Trump
* I knew that the entire recovery was an illusion
* And it simply existed in the minds of the people who fabricated itPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/10/2016 • 28 minutes, 37 seconds
Will A Trump Win Rain On Stock Market’s Clinton Victory Parade? – Ep. 209
* It's not going to be a new record as far as the consecutive days of declines for the U.S stock market
* The 9-day losing streak ended today in a huge pre-relief Clinton victory rally
* The markets had been factoring in a higher probability of a Donald Trump victory ever since the FBI announced that they were re-opening the email investigation
* Thanks to a treasure trove of 650,000 emails on Anthony Wiener's (a.k.a. Carlos Danger) laptop computer
* Apparently they have now gone through all 650,000 emails in under a week and yesterday, on a Sunday afternoon Comey made the announcement that the FBI had completed their investigation of these additional emails and that nothing had changed with respect to the FBI's original recommendation
* Which was, if you forget, that despite recklessness and carelessness on the part of Hillary Clinton to have set up this private server, and to have used it to send out classified emails
* That they found no evidence of deliberate wrongdoing, that Sec. Clinton just made an "honest mistake".
* That she had no idea that it was a bad idea to send classified emails out of a private server
* I remember at the time, I said, if this is true, she's too incompetent to be President, if she's really that naive
* If she really thinks that she doesn't have to handle classified data with any kind of care
* Then she's not competent to be President
* Either she is incompetent or she's dishonest
* Of course there is plenty of evidence that Hillary Clinton lied about the fact that she did, in fact send classified information out of her private server
* She claimed that she did not and then the FBI found them
* Also, she engaged in a cover up, obstruction of justice
* As soon as she knew that she was under investigation, she destroyed evidence that she was ordered to preservePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/8/2016 • 30 minutes, 3 seconds
Stocks Slide As Jobs Report Keeps Rate Hike Possibility Alive – Ep. 208
* Today U.S. stocks extended their losing streak to 9 consecutive days
* We haven't had a losing streak this long since 1980 - that was 36 years ago
* 8 consecutive down days last took place in the financial crisis year of 2008, so we had tied that yesterday
* Now we one-bettered it and we're back to the longest streak since 1980
* The record for consecutive down days is 12
* The last time that happened was in 1966
* And if you don't know what the significance was of 1966 - that was the peak of the bull market
* And the bear market that ensued went on for 16 years in nominal terms and much longer than that in real terms
* The Dow hit 1,000 in 1966 and it didn't get above 1,000 until 1982!
* Of course, adjusted for inflation, 1,000 in 1982 wasn't even close to 1,000 in 1966
* Certainly in terms of gold; gold was $35/oz. in 1966 and in 1982 it was probably about $500
* In terms of gold, the Dow was slaughtered during those 16 years
* Even adjusted for the CPI, I don't think we got back to 1,000 until toward the end of the 1990's stock market bubble
* We'll see - we may well be down on Monday, so that would make it 10, and if we're down on Tuesday, 11
* And if Trump wins, then we'll probably be down on Wednesday, so we'll see if we can set this rather dubious record
* Gold, on the other hand was going in the opposite direction
* It managed to finish the week with a small gain, but nonetheless closing above $1300
* Closing out the week at $1304, that's the highest weekly close in some time
* Silver also eked out a small gain of 8¢, at 18.41
* The dollar continued its losing streak of late, with the dollar index closing below .97 with a .96 handle - 96.89
* As stocks are weakening, so is the dollar, and gold is strengthening
* What does this portend for the presidential election?
* Typically, when the incumbent party wins, which in this case would be Hillary, the stock market rises prior to the election
* Normally, when the stock market is falling, it's an indication that they are going to oust the incumbent party
* Based on the stock market, one might think Trump is heading for an upset win
* Is the stock market falling because it is worried about a Trump presidency, or is it simply falling because it doesn't matter?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/4/2016 • 27 minutes, 18 seconds
Is Nov. Trump Victory More Likely Than Dec Rate Hike? – Ep. 207
* Today the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December rose about 10 points
* We're now at about an 80% probability, at least the way the markets assess the odds
* That the Fed will raise rates in December after failing to raise rates today
* If you remember, after they didn't raise rates last time there was some probability of a November rate hike
* But by this morning, the probability of November had pretty much been reduced to about zero
* With everybody believing that the Fed would raise rates in December
* And now, as a result of their failure to hike in November
* The probability apparently is now higher based on the language of their non-hike
* This, despite the fact that there were only 2 dissenters when the Fed didn't raise interest rates the last time they met
* Three members voted to hike and six voted not to hike
* This time it was 7 to 2 in favor of not hiking
* So what happened between meetings that caused the one guy who wanted to hike rates last time to decide he doesn't want to hike rates now?
* Is it possible that some data came out over the course of those weeks that caused him to re-assess his feelings about the strength of the economy
* And if so, why is that member going to flip back to "hike" in December, after just flipping to "no hike"
* Is it pure politics?
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/3/2016 • 29 minutes, 40 seconds
Was Q3 GDP Rigged Just In Time For The Election? Ep. 206
* Yesterday we finally got the release of the initial estimate for Q4 GDP
* The Atlanta Fed had originally come out with an estimate of about 3.8 and had steadily reduced their estimate
* They got down as low as 1.9 before ratcheting it up a couple of times and their estimate was at 2.1 when we got the official release
* And the number came out at 2.9; not only much higher than Atlanta Fed's estimate, but much higher than the consensus forecast at 2.5
* I am very suspicious of this number
* This is the strongest number in over 2 years and it comes out less than 2 weeks before the election
* Of course one of Donald Trump's issues has been the weak GDP growth, which has averaged just 1% for the last 3 quarters
* All of a sudden it's 2/9?
* Does anybody really believe that suddenly the U.S. economy in the fall of 2016 was 3 times as strong as the last 3 quarters?
* I dont' think so. I don't believe that for a second
* I do believe that after the election when we get the revisions we will get a downward revision to this number
* But, even if this number were real; even if it holds up
* If you average the last 4 quarters to get the entire year, looking back, you're just below 1.5% for the entire year, which is still extremely weak growth
* Once you look beneath the surface of this 2.9, it's very easy to see how they rigged it, to use Donald Trump's expression
* Not that it's some kind of a conspiracy
* Look at these numbers - there was a 10% spike in exports - this the biggest gain in exports in 3 years
* It's not in manufactured products that we're exporting, where you've got some high-paying jobs
* It was primarily let by a one-time surge in soybean exportsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/29/2016 • 36 minutes, 5 seconds
Markets Ignore Fed’s Bullard One And Done Admission – Ep. 205
* The odds of a December rate hike continue to ratchet up above 70%
* We had a parade of Fed officials, most recently again today coming out and talking about why a December rate hike is a good idea, probable, possible, appropriate
* You name the adjective, some Federal Reserve president, governor is discussing it
* The markets are ratcheting up their expecations
* The dollar index continues to move higher, we hit about a 9-month high today
* We got above 99; but we didn't close there, in fact the dollar index managed to close down a notch
* Interestingly enough, gold had a pretty strong day today, we had about I think we're at $12.73
* Even to the extent the FOREX traders are worried about a December rate hike, the gold traders don't seem to care about how a rate hike might impact the price of gold
* This says either the gold traders don't believe that a December rate hike is coming, or they've correctly concluded that even if the Fed does raise interest rates in December, it's no big deal
* It's too little too late to be a negative for the gold market
* The Fed is going to deliver far less than it promised when it comes to rate hikes
* In fact the most interesting comment from a Fed official came last week from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
* He said that the Federal Reserve only needs to nudge interest rates up by 25 basis points
* Right now, the official rate of Fed funds is between .25 and .50
* It used to be between 0 and 25
* I think where we actually are right now is 38 basis points
* So if we moved up 25, at least these are the numbers Bullard is throwing out, we'd move up to 63 basis points for the Fed Funds Rate
* Which is just barely above a half point
* He says that's all we need to do is nudge it up to 63 basis points, and that's it - we're done
* He said, "We need to do it in December, but then that's it, interest rates are going to stay really low for years."
* He's talking 2 or 3 years or maybe even more of ultra low interest rates, despite whatever is happening in employment, and inflation
* This is all we need
* Nudging up by a quarter basis point and we're done
* I was surprised, to be honest, that we didn't get more of a reaction to this admission by Bullard that the next hike, if it comes in December is the end of it
* If that's it and then we're on hold for years
* Sometime, during that period of time, we're going to find ourselves back in recession
* Even if we're not in recession now
* Even if this so-called recovery is in its twilight
* Remember this is the 3rd longest recovery of the post-war era and it is the weakest recovery - ever
* And, of course, it has the most stimulus
* So despite having the most stimulus, it's the weakest
* Clearly, it's going to run out of steam
* So if the Fed does in fact raise rates ever so slightly in December and then say:
* "That's it for now, we're just going to wait"
* What's going to happen is, we'll be back in recession
* If Hillary Clinton becomes the next president, and it's looking more and more likely that that nightmare will become a reality
* If she is, she will try to stimulate the economy
* Look what happened with George Bush
* When George Bush was initially elected the first time, he inherited the bursting of the dot com bubblePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/25/2016 • 47 minutes, 1 second
Pace Of Consumer Price Increases Set To Accelerate – Ep. 204
* The official probability of a December rate hike continues to diminish over the last several days
* The markets had the rate hike at about a 70% probability; now we're down to about 60%
* Personally, I think the odds are closer to zero, and over time, as we get closer and closer to that December meeting, the odds will steadily move down
* Just like the Atlanta Fed keeps moving down its estimates for Q3 GDP; most recently down to 1.9%
* I expect the Atlanta Fed to move lower again this week on more weak economic data
* As the potential for a rate hike diminishes, gold's appeal improving, gold prices now back above $1260 today
* We've had a couple of back to back strong days in the gold sector
* Maybe the catalyst for the recent correction in the price of gold was the renewed expectation of a November and now December rate hike
* As those expectations are realistically dialed back, you'll see more money moving into the metals
* The dollar, though, continues to trade firm
* It's not moving higher, but it's not really surrendering much of its gains
* Maybe some of this has to do with weakness particularly in the pound
* Why is the pound so weak?
* The Bank of England was very forthright, they wasted no time in warning voters not to vote for Brexit as it would be a disaster for the British economy
* Well, sure enough, the people voted for Brexit, and so now, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy
* The central bankers in Britain had convinced themselves that the economy would require stimulus, and therefore announced an increase in their QE programPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/19/2016 • 47 minutes, 1 second
Media Trumps Up Obama To Help Clinton – Ep. 203
* It's another week where the dollar remained relatively firmly bid; the dollar index closing just above 98
* Gold prices seem to have a lid on them; they closed down today about $7
* Gold's not really going down, but it's not really going up, either
* What are going up are bond yields, long-term bond yields are rising today to about a 4-month high
* 30-year Treasury yield to about 2.5%
* The 10-year just below 1.8
* This despite the fact that the economic news, during the week, on balance, was generally weaker than expected
* Obviously the numbers are worse because the Atlanta Fed reduced again their Q3 GDP estimate down to 1.9%
* This is the first time it has been below 2
* It is not half of what it was just over a month ago, when they were at 3.8
* I still think their estimate is too high
* I do think that Q3 is going to be a stronger quarter than Q4, which will probably be another 1% or below
* The last 3 quarters averaged 1%
* This is the weakest 3 consecutive quarters of this entire so-called recovery
* Yet now the Fed is supposedly raising rates?
* In fact, we got the JOLTS report on Wednesday, supposedly Janet Yellen's favorite indicator of the labor market
* Not only did we have a slight downward revision to the prior month, but we had a 7.3% collapse in August
* That was the biggest drop since December of last year
* Everything about that report was weak
* If this is Janet Yellen's favorite number, and if the Fed didn't raise rates in September because they wanted more data on the job market, and now they just got the JOLTS number, which was much worse than expected,
* Why is every Fed governor talking about rate hikes in interviews?
* Another one was out on CNBC, talking about how rate hikes would be appropriate
* Yes! It would have been appropriate to raise them a long time ago
* It would have been appropriate in June, in September, in March, in January, last year, 2 years ago, 3 years ago
* It would have been appropriate a long time ago to raise rates - they didn't do it
* You know what was inappropriate? Cutting them to zero
* That was not appropriate - they did it anyway
* The Fed is not about doing what's appropriatePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/15/2016 • 40 minutes, 5 seconds
Putting The Trump Controversy Into Perspective – Ep.202
* The most highly anticipated presidential debate in history is over and to me, the anticipation was more like a highly-promoted professional boxing match
* Right away, as soon as the debate was over, CNN comes out with its poll, showing Clinton badly beating Donald Trump
* And I thought that, if this were like a prize fight, the ref's would have stopped the fight in the first 20 minutes
* That's how badly Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in this debate
* And then you see this poll coming out saying supposedly that Clinton clobbered Trump
* What debate were these guys watching?
* Like you see a fight and the decision goes totally against what you saw, and you think, "Aha, the fix is in".
* I think for CNN, the fix was in
* They badly wanted Hillary Clinton to win this debate, and so I think Hillary was going to win this debate according to their poll, regardless
* I think anybody who watched the debate objectively is going to conclude that Trump won
* I was pretty critical of Donald Trump's performance in the first debate
* And while, I didn't think this one was perfect, I think were a couple of things I would have liked for him to have said
* But I am armchair quarterbacking this, from my living room; he's there, live
* But I think he did as good a job as possible and I think he advance his standing
* But before I even get into the debate, I want to talk about the elephant in the room, which was the 2005 Access Hollywood tape that everybody is talking about
* In fact, it really let Hillary Clinton off the hook from issues that should have been addressed on her end
* Regarding leaks from her Wall Street speeches, that Bernie Sanders kept demanding that she release, and, if she had, Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic nominee at this time, and we would have a very different debate
* I want to address this topic in a way that no one else is addressing it
* I've mentioned my position on Facebook and I have noticed that I have lost some fans as a result of my candor
* But I am going to elaborate on my defense of Donald Trump
* I am not defending what he said
* His words were indefensible, and I do not condone his crude language
* I am putting this conversation into its proper context
* This is being portrayed as a revealing hidden contempt for women and that he is abusive to women
* No it doesn't
* This is a private conversation that Donald Trump had in 2005 with a much younger guy, Billy Bush - about 33 at the time and Donald was 59
* He is having a private conversation, not knowing that his mic was live nor recording
* He was doing a cameo for "Days of Our Lives", and this conversation was not meant for public consumption
* More importantly, look at the scene that Donald Trump was there to shoot
* This is a scene where the actress is throwing herself sexually at Donald Trump
* She comes onto him in a major way
* Trump is standing there, ignoring it
* This is the scene Donald Trump is about to shootPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/10/2016 • 48 minutes, 55 seconds
September Jobs Report Even Weaker Than It Appears – Ep. 201
* This morning the government released the most important, the most highly-anticipated economic release of the month
* At least that's what everybody who trades in just about any market believes
* And that is the Non-Farm Payroll Report; the official scorecard on job creation and unemployment
* This time it was for the month of September, the final month of Q3
* We're still waiting for the GDP estimate for Q3
* By the way the Atlanta Fed, which continues to do the interest rate limbo, lowered the bar again today on the Q3 GDP, which was 3.8% a month ago, when Janet Yellen talked about how the case for a rate hike had been strengthening
* As of today, the Atlanta Fed is down to 2.1%
* Politically, they are still trying to keep the estimate above 2%, although by the data, I expect it to be south of 2%
* The important news today was the jobs number;
* People were looking for a strong report, I think the consensus was around 170,000, but most people were talking 190 - 200,000, some people were looking for a number north of 200,000
* We got 156,000 jobs, which was below expectations, but a little better than the prior month
* Originally reported at 151,000 but was revised up to 167,000
* So now, based on the revised number, it's actually worse than the prior month
* Even though they revised the prior month up, they revised the month prior to that down, so the net effect of the revision was a decline
* The unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.9 actually ticked back up to 5%
* Average hourly earnings, expected to rise by .3, following a small increase of .1 the prior month came in at .2
* Not quite the gain everybody thought
* This is not a good report, and anybody who thought the Fed was going to hike rates in November, they clearly don't think it anymore
* In fact, even WSJ reporter Jon Hilsenrath said that today's jobs report took a November interest rate hike off the table
* I would suggest that a November rate hike was never on the table
* To the extent it was there, it was only in the imaginations of people like Hilsenrath
* Hilsenrath says now, if the Fed is going to move, it won't be until December, but it's not a sure thing
* The fact is, the Fed is more likely not to raise rates in December
* Once again, you need to know the rest of the story, as Paul Harvey used to say, when it comes to the jobs numbers
* Because the headline doesn't really tell the story
* You always have to look beneath the surface, which nobody wants to do, except for myself, and a few guys over at Zero Hedge
* They always do a good job of pointing out what's really going on in the jobs market
* Number one: The big news was the net creation of part-time-jobs
* I've been saying this for a long time that the big story is that we are replacing full-time jobs with part-time jobs
* Employers need more part-time workers than full-time workers because each one works fewer hours
* We're always going to have net job creation when you are transforming the economy from full-time to part-time employment
* That was clearly the case this last month
* According to the Household Survey, we lost 5,000 full-time jobs in September and added 430,000 part-time jobs
* I would venture to guess that pretty much all of the net increase from August to September, 150,000 or so jobs, is in part-time work
* If you look at the large jump in employees holding down multiple jobs - the government reports that
* There was a big jump in September in the number of Americans who have more than one job
* So obviously what's happening is that people with one job are getting a second job and peop...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/8/2016 • 32 minutes, 29 seconds
Trumped Up Rate Hikes – Ep. 200
* This is my 200th podcast and I looked back to the date of the first one and it was just over 2 years ago, September 2014
* I began this podcast shortly after I ended the Peter Schiff Radio Show
* I hope everybody is enjoying these podcasts and if you like what you're listening to, help turn on other people to the same information
* Statements early this morning by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker certainly sent tremors through the precious metals markets
* Gold tumbled over $40/oz; closing $1268 and change
* This is the first time we've actually been below $1300 in the last few months
* Silver down just over a buck; 17.78
* It wasn't that long ago that we'd gotten above $20
* It was even worse for gold and silver mining stocks; this was the worse day of the year for those stocks
* The markets closed right near the lows of the day
* There was a big sell-off right after those statements came out and there was no reprieve
* The dollar was stronger on the day, although not against the euro
* There were some rumors that the European Central Bank may begin to taper its QE program
* That held the euro steady against the dollar
* The weak currencies were the yen and the pound which was "pounded" again to about a new 35-year low
* On concerns that we might have a hard Brexit rather than a soft Brexit
* This is more a matter of the yen and pound weakness today than dollar strength
* The bond market was weaker on the day, closing near the lows
* The Dow, though, only off about 85 points
* If the markets really believe that a rate hike is coming, which is clearly what the metals traders seem to believe
* I think the stock market should be even weaker
* Although probably what's helping the stock market is the strength in the financials
* Because as I have said before, people actually believe that higher interest rates are good for the financials
* So the fear of higher rates actually lifted the financials, which helped support the market
* But people who think the Fed is going to raise rates, and that higher rates are good for the financials
* They're wrong twice, because the Fed's probably not going to raise rates and if they did, it would be horrible for financials
* They might get lucky, though because they'd be wrong on the rate hike and would not then lose as much had the Fed actually raised rates
* I want to go over the Lacker's statement that started all the turmoil: What did this guy say that caused everybody to jump to the conclusion that the Fed's about to hike rates?
* The probability of a rate hike had been rising; it didn't just start today, but the probability did notch up a bit
* They're now looking at a 60% chance of a December rate hike, but there's a 25% chance now of a November rate hike
* The November meeting is one week before the election why would people think the Fed would take a chance on an adverse market reaction to a rate hike a week before the election?
* Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/5/2016 • 35 minutes, 17 seconds
Fed Bigger Threat To Depositors Than Wells Fargo – Ep. 199
* It looks like the U.S. stock market is going to close out the 3rd quarter on a positive note
* The catalyst for the rally today is the big rally in Deutsche Bank; shares are up better than 14%
* They were in danger of going below $10 yesterday
* There were nervous about maintaining accounts with Deutsche Bank
* People were re-living memories of Lehman Brothers all over again
* I think the Obama Administration was beginning to get concerned
* The Dow was off about 200 points on the close yesterday
* When worries about contagion spilling over from European banks into U.S. Banks
* It wasn't good with these Wells Fargo Congressional hearings
* I am going to chime in on that later in today's podcast
* I think the Obama administration was getting nervous about precipitating another financial crisis before the election
* I think they gave a nudge to the Department of Justice which had been talking about a $14 billion fine on Deutsche Bank
* The rumors this morning are that they are nearing a settlement with Deutsche Bank for a much lower number; maybe around $5.5 billion
* Which is below the amount that Deutsche Bank had set aside to settle this
* So from $14 billion down to about $5.5 billion - this is causing a big rally in the shares of Deutsche Bank and in fact that is returning confidence to the entire sector
* I don't think that this means that the European banks or the American banks, for that matter, are out of the woods
* I still think there are a lot of problems in the financials, because as I said in a previous podcast,"They're damned if the Fed raises and they're damned if they don't"
* Negative rates are bad for the banks but rate hikes are also bad for the banks, based on their balance sheets
* I think there are still a lot of problems percolating beneath the surface for the financials
* As far as the Obama Administration is concerned, the key is to get everything through the next election without a crisis
* So I think that having the Department of Justice settle with Deutsche Bank for a much smaller number...
* You know that $14 billion fine was very close to what the Europeans were looking to fine Apple
* But I think the Department of Justice is more concerned about elections than the symbolism regarding Apple's fine
* So coming to an agreeable solution with Deutsche Bank that was lower than the markets had feared serves the Administration's purpose right now
* So that's where the rally is coming from today and of course the traders like to paint the tape a little bit going into the end of the quarter
* It's not just the markets that had a strong quarter - crude oil ended the day about $49
* We have some kind of agreement among OPEC nations for production cuts
* And while that might be good for oil stocks, it's not going to be good for the U.S. consumer, who is already struggling
* In fact we did get a mixed bag on economic numbers out today
* The disappointing number was consumer spending, which for the month of August was flat; the anticipation was for an increase of .2%
* Personal income did manage to meet expectations with a .2% increase
* But that was about half the increase we got in the prior month
* Spending went down from +.4 (which was upwardly revised from the original +.3) to flat
* Higher energy prices, gas prices at the pump are simply going to eat into that consumer spending number
* Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/30/2016 • 31 minutes, 51 seconds
The Debate We Should Have Seen – Ep. 198
* I'm going to use today's podcast to offer my take on last night's Presidential Debates
* Which certainly did not live up to all of the hype and expectation
* But the airwaves today are filled with opinion makers proclaiming that Trump won or Hillary won
* And of course, all of the people who think Trump won, these are the Trump supporters, Republicans - their guy won
* And Hillary supporters are proclaiming that Hillary won
* I'm going to give you a different take because, clearly, (and if you don't know this by now, if the choice is between Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, I would choose Trump)
* Yet despite the fact that I support Trump over Hillary, I think Trump really blew an opportunity with this debate
* I know in some cases there were some low expectations with respect to Trump, and did he exceed those low expectations, I don't know
* I expected more from Donald Trump; I was disappointed
* I think he should have mopped the floor with Hillary Clinton
* She gave him many opportunities, she teed it up for him over and over again
* And he didn't even take a swing
* In many cases, not only did he not try to hit the ball, he whiffed
* I wish he had paid me to help him with debate prep because I would have told him exactly how to handle Hillary Clinton
* I'll start off by giving one simple example, where he could have made lemonade out of lemons, but chose to hand Hillary and issue which I'm sure she will use against him
* This had to do with his comment in an interview over 10 years ago that pregnancy is inconvenient for employers - which of course, it is
* And Hillary Clinton said: "Donald Trump, you said that pregnancy was an inconvenience for employers"
* Instead of owning and embracing that comment, he backed away from it and denied having said it
* One of the big issues is that Hillary is a liar
* If Hillary is a liar, don't tell lies, yourself
* Trump has to be honest to exploit Hillary's lack of honesty
* And of course, Hillary can easily make a commercials - she's got tons of money to produce commercials and run them -
* Saying that he never said that pregnancy was inconvenient for employers and juxtapose that with a clip showing him saying that pregnancy is inconvenient for employers
* This didn't have to happen
* Trump should have owned this
* First of all, one of the things that people liked about Trump is that he is not politically correct - he speaks his mind
* Why not continue to speak your mind? Why pretend that pregnancy is not inconvenient for employers
* Just because some woman might be offended
* I give women more credit than that
* I think most women realize that pregnancy is inconvenient for employers
* Even female employers! This is not a male/female thing
* If you are a woman employer with female employees and one of them gets pregnant, it is inconvenient for you, too
* For big business, major corporations, maybe you have plenty of other people to pick up the slack
* But where pregnancy is really inconvenient for employers is with small business
* Now Hillary claims she cares about small business
* OK, if you care about small business, can't you admit when things are inconvenient?
* Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/27/2016 • 34 minutes, 44 seconds
No Alien Invasion And No Rate Hike – Ep. 197
* Aliens didn't invade the Earth, and the Federal Reserve didn't raise interest rates
* If you remember, I was pegging the probability of each at roughly the same
* True to form, the Federal Reserve did pretty much exactly what I thought they were going to do and not raise interest rates
* Now I thought they might have tried to lower expectations for the probability in the markets of a December rate hike
* Even though they didn't say that, that was the effect of their announcement
* If you look at the dot plots, for example, the FOMC members were looking for rates to be lower for longer
* Surely, if you look at the reaction to the market, the market does not appear to be worried about a rate hike coming in either November or December, even though the Fed still maintains the narrative that the possibility still exists
* The Fed reiterated that the case for a rate hike had increased
* But, they chose not to raise rates despite their narrative
* Their reason was that they wanted to see more data
* This is exactly what I said after Yellen's statement at Jackson Hole
* The media interpreted her statement as a signal that a September rate hike was likely
* What did I say?
* I said the Fed didn't say anything about hiking
* They were speaking about the case for a hike
* I described it as a scale from, say 0 - 10
* If the case were a 3 and then it became a 4, the case had strengthened
* But if the Fed needs 10, and we're only at 4, they're not going to hike
* They never came clean about their scale, they simply said that the case for a hike had increased
* That doesn't mean they were going to raise rates, and that's exactly what happened
* It's interesting that in all of the prepared remarks and in the following press conference
* Janet Yellen never once admitted that the economy is weakening
* In fact, she continues to pretend that everything is great
* Ironically, one of the questions in the Q&A had to do with Donald Trump's position that the Fed is not raising interest rates for political reasons
* Which, of course is exactly why they're not raising them
* If they raise interest rates, everything would collapse, and so would Hillary Clinton's election prospectsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/21/2016 • 27 minutes, 12 seconds
Damned If They Do And Damned If They Don’t – Ep. 196
* This morning the Federal Open Market Committee began its 2-day meeting, where they're supposedly going to discuss raising interest rates for the second time
* We're going to get the official announcement of their decision on Wednesday
* Most likely there will be no surprise, that they won't raise interest rates
* But it will be the statement at the press conference that follows; that's typically where you can get more market-moving insights
* I said they're supposedly going to be discussing whether or not they are going to raise rates, but you would think that if they were going to raise rates, they'd know it before the meeting started
* But I don't think they're going to discuss whether or not they're going to raise rates; I think they know they're not going to raise rates
* What they're going to discuss is the bind they're in
* It's like they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't
* On the one hand, market expectations went way up for a while, on a September rate hike
* Based on Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole speech, where she said, "The case for a rate hike had strengthened."
* Then later that day, another Fed official reiterated that there was nothing in Janet Yellen's speech that would rule out a rate hike in either September or December or both!
* Based on that, market expectations ramped up
* Of course, the Fed also claims to be data dependent, and the data over the past month has been lousy
* Even though the Fed has not gone out of its way to recognize the bad data, probably for political reasons
* The data has been bad, so the case for a rate hike has weakened, although Janet Yellen herself has not uttered those words
* You've had some other Fed officials come out and pay lip service to that effect more recently because the market started to fall so the doves came flying to the rescue to save the market
* But here's the conundrum: if they don't raise rates, which I think is the more likely option, then the Fed will have cried wolf again
* If they do raise rates, it belies Janet Yellen's "Data Dependent" credo
* In reality, they should be raising rates regardless of the data, because rates are too low
* These low rate are creating a problem
* It doesn't matter whether the economy is weak or strong, rates need to go up
* In fact, I would argue that the economy is weak because rates are so low
* Rates have to go up before we can have a real recovery
* Of course, before we can have a real recovery, we have to prick this bubble and end the phony recovery
* To have real economic growth, we're going to have to have a crash first
* If we want the gain, we have to endure the pain
* But nobody wants the pain so we never get any gain
* If the Fed were to raise rates despite the data, it looks like they're not data dependent
* If they don't raise rates without acknowledging that the data is weak
* If they continue to pretend that the economy is fine, and continue to hint at future rate hikes
* The Fed loses more credibility
* That is what they are more likely to do: why would they take a chance on raising rates on Wednesday
* Knowing A) How weak the data is, and B) knowing that it is possible that the markets could tank as a result of that hike
* That's the last thing they want, because, then what are they going to do?
* How are they going to reverse the decline? Cut rates?
* Clearly the Fed wants to punt again and delay the decision to December
* This will mean that they barked again but they didn't bite
* That's what they're talking about: "How do we thread this needle? How to we make the perfect statement that will still pretend the recovery is on track and still justify n...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/21/2016 • 38 minutes, 33 seconds
Hedge Fund Billionaires Finally Calling Out The Fed – Ep. 195
* We got a lot of economic data released today, most of it bad, and most of it worse than expected
* What I did not expect was that the market shrugged it off
* Initially, there was a little reaction; gold jumped $3 but it never gained momentum and it rolled over to -$10 at the time of this recording
* The dollar index, which had moved into negative territory immediately following the release, quickly recovered back to positive territory
* It's still early in the day, as I'm recording, so this could change as some of this economic data has a chance to sink in
* I noticed that the Atlanta Fed just reduced its Q3 GDP estimate from 3.3 to 3%
* That' the second reduction in a row
* This is the lowest estimate the Atlanta Fed has had in about 2 months, although it is still pretty high
* Let's go over the data we got today:
* Retail Sales was one of the more significant numbers; everybody looks to retail sales to judge the health of the consumer
* Last month's number, relatively weak, it was flat, and they were looking for another flat month, but we were -.3% for August
* It gets worse from there - less autos, they revised the prior month from -.3 to -.4 and in August they were looking for +.3, they got -.1
* Less autos and gasoline, we were down last month .1%; they were looking for +.4% and we're down another .1%Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/15/2016 • 27 minutes, 56 seconds
Fed Cavalry Charges To Market’s Rescue Ep. 194
* Today was a day of damage control for the Federal Reserve
* It almost seems like whenever they discuss the possibility of a rate hike, they're really launching a trial balloon
* They want to gauge the possibility of a rate hike and then if the market kind of shrugs it off, or blesses the rate hike the way it did last year nearing December, if the market seems it's OK with a rate hike, then maybe they'd consider actually implementing one
* But before they do it, they want to test the waters, they want to see how the market reacts to that possibility
* Clearly, the near 400-point decline in the Dow on Friday showed that the market really wasn't very friendly to the possibility of a rate hike
* Let alone the certainty of one
* Just the mere possibility, however remote, really spooked the market
* Today the Federal Reserve had a chance to dial it back
* They had 3 Fed presidents speaking today, and not one of them talked about the possibility of a rate hike
* Starting with an 8am talk this morning by Atlanta Fed President and CEO Dennis Lockhart
* Now Dennis was specifically asked about a rate hike, and whether he thought the Fed would move in September or December
* He specifically refused to comment
* He said, "Financial markets seem to be very sensitive to the remarks of Fed speakers at the moment"
* And so in light of market sensitivity, he refused to answer the question
* Why not answer it? Don't you want to prepare the markets for a possible rate hike?
* Well they don't want to say what they want to do, because they don't like the way the market is reacting
* You'd better believe that if the markets reacted favorably to a rate hike, they would have stayed on script
* Because of the the sell-off on Friday, and where futures opened before Lockhart's speech, the Dow was set to open up down 100 points or more
* But once he spoke, all of a sudden, people were thinking, "Hey wait a minute, he didn't say anything about a possibility of a rate hike and he's worried about the markets' sensitivity
* The only thing he said that could have been interpreted as a rate hike comment was when he mentioned the data over the past few weeks "warrants serious discussion of a policy rate increase"
* The data over the past few weeks has all been bad
* All he said is, it warrants discussion of a policy rate increase, but he didn't say that we should be in favor of an increase, or against an increase
* He just said the data over the past few weeks warrants discussion
* To me, what that means is, we should discuss not raising rates because all the data we've gotten recently is weak
* It was the data we got a couple of months ago that supposedly let Janet Yellen conclude that the case for rate hike had strengthened
* But really, what Lockhart is saying is, "We need to have a serious discussion about a rate increase."
* Not that we have to discuss raising interest rates, but maybe we should discuss not raising interest rates because based on the data from just the past few weeks, one would argue against an increase
* If he had said, "We need to discuss an increase", he wouldn't have predicated it with, "the data over the last few weeks"
* That data, in and of itself, is not friendly to an increase
* If he was in favor of a rate increase, he would not qualify it the data over the past few weeks
* Also, just suggesting a discussion about a policy rate increase is not the same as actually increasing the interest rate
* A discussion to increase rates could lead to no rate hike
* Well, I assume they've been having discussions about raising rates for the last several years
* What else do they discuss over there?
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/13/2016 • 26 minutes, 2 seconds
Markets Rattled by Rate Hike Possibility – Ep. 193
* We had widespread selling in the markets today; it was real carnage across the board
* Everything went down except the U.S. dollar
* The Dow Jones was down 394 points - about 2%
* That wasn't bad compared to what happened in other indices and other sectors
* In fact, when it comes to the Dow Jones averages, the utilities were the weakest, they were down 3.7%
* The NASDAQ was down 2-1/2%; the composite down 133 points
* Various sectors were hit very hard; particularly the interest rate sensitive sectors;
* Home builders got crushed
* Emerging markets got obliterated
* Gold stocks were down big - almost 6% on the day
* That's on basically a .6% decline in the price of gold; gold was down only about $10
* Silver dropped about 50 cents
* What's going on? It has just been 2 days when I did the last podcast
* Gold was soaring, the dollar was tanking, the markets were going up
* Why?
* The economic data we got for August confirms that we have the weakest economy, maybe in 6 years
* If you remember, what caused the markets to be concerned was the Janet Yellen/Jackson Hole statement that the case for a rate hike had strengthened based on the economic data that came out in June and July
* Based on the data released since she made that speech, this is data about August, that case has now weakened considerably
* The August data shows that the data that we got in June or July that might have been positive was a one-off event
* Now we're back in weakening mode, and so, if the Fed really were really data dependent, according to Janet Yellen
* Now the data is awful
* So why would they hike rates? That's exactly what happened
* The markets started to take those rate hikes off the table
* I never thought they were on the table, but there were many people who bought into it
* When they saw this horrible data, and they knew the Fed was data dependent, the markets reacted
* Now, in the last couple of days, particularly today, people are now questioning whether or not the Fed is actually data dependent, and they're thinking they're going to raise interest rates, even if the data is bad
* Now what would make them jump to such a conclusion?
* We had several Fed officials, both yesterday and today, who continued to talk about the possibility of rate hikes and nobody has acknowledged the recently-released weakening economic data
* I have said many times they don't want to acknowledged that data
* That plays into Donald Trump's campaign
* They'd be peddling fiction!
* They don't want to talk about a weakening economy, so they have to ignore the data
* But the fact that they are ignoring the data while continuing to talk about the possibility of rate hikes
* That's got everybody scared
* All these guys say is that there is a possibility of a rate hike
* A possibility is not a probability
* It's certainly not a certainty
* But the markets are acting as if the Fed is about to raise rates, and that's why everybody is so scared
* It's not just the Fed; yesterday in Draghi's press conference was asked about his plans when the QE program ends (it is scheduled to end Q1 of 2017)
* He basically said he doesn't have any plans to do more QEPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/10/2016 • 33 minutes, 2 seconds
Data Dependent Fed Ignores Bad Data – Ep. 192
* Last week on Thursday we got that much weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing number, which didn't get a lot of attention because it came out a day before the jobs number which cast a pretty big shadow on all the economic data
* The number came in very weak, as I pointed out, it was 49.4, which is contraction mode
* Anything below 50 in the ISM numbers indicates a contraction and a recession
* But of course, no one cares about manufacturing because it is such a small part of the U.S. economy, which in and of itself, is a major problem
* The fact that it is such a small part of the economy should be very concerning, because without manufacturing you really can't have a service sector
* The way the U.S. gets away with it is to just import with everyone else manufactures and we run enormous trade deficits, which is an unsustainable model
* It's a great gravy train while the ride lasts, but when the rest of the world figures out that we can never pay our debts, then the gravy train comes to an end
* The trade deficit represents an artificially high standard of living, but in the long run it's unsustainable because our creditors will not let us get away with this forever
* I want to get to the ISM Non-Manufacturing number which came out yesterday; this represents the service sector of the economy
* They were looking for 55, which was not a great number; last month we got 55.5, so there was some optimism around that number
* They were looking for 55 even and, instead, the number came in at 51.4
* The lowest number in better than 6 years
* And if you look beneath the surface and all the various components; new orders, back logs, hiring - horrible numbers consistent with recession
* The complete opposite of what everybody was looking for, and when you combine this with the 49.4 we got from manufacturing that is a very bleak picture
* The fact that we are at 6+ lows in the service sector does not bode well for the future
* The trajectory is down, and how much longer is it going to be before the ISM Non-Manufacturing breaches the 50 mark?
* Just when they start talking about these rate hikes - everything before this number came out questioned a September or a December rate hike - foregone conclusion
* We had the same discussion in September a year ago
* They punted and raised rates in December - will they do it again?
* Given the bad news to date, there is really no way the Fed is going to raise rates in September
* But just when the Fed officials are talking up a rate hike, everything changes with some bad news
* The Fed never admits the data is bad they just don't raise rates and you've got to figure it out for yourself
* When the ISM Non-Manufacturing number came out, gold took off
* It continued to rise throughout the day and closed up better than $20
* Gold got back above $1350 after having just tested the $1300 level
* Silver had a big up day; it went back above the $20 mark
* We had a strong move up in the gold stocks again following Thursday and Friday's strong move in gold stocks
* The markets were very surprised, and when this number came out, all of a sudden all the bets were changing
* The odds for a September rate hike were way down
* But not that much for December, because people are just assuming they can't go in September because we got this bad news, but, of course, by December, we may get some good news
* The reality is that by then, there will be even more bad news
* The Fed is not going to be raising rates; they are just talking about it, politically
* In fact, John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco late last night ignored the bad financial news entirely in his statement,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/7/2016 • 38 minutes, 43 seconds
It’s Not Bad News Until The Fed Says It’s Bad – Ep. 191
* On Friday we got the Non-Farm Payroll report and, of course, this jobs report is the most important ever
* Because it was going to determine whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its September meeting
* Of course, I didn't think the Fed would raise interest rates in September regardless of what this jobs number was
* It's just that so many people were convinced that it was going to happen just because several Fed officials said it was possiblePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/3/2016 • 31 minutes, 56 seconds
It’s Not Bad News Until The Fed Says It’s Bad – Ep. 191
* On Friday we got the Non-Farm Payroll report and, of course, this jobs report is the most important ever
* Because it was going to determine whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its September meeting
* Of course, I didn't think the Fed would raise interest rates in September regardless of what this jobs number was
* It's just that so many people were convinced that it was going to happen just because several Fed officials said it was possiblePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/3/2016 • 31 minutes, 56 seconds
The Fed Up Fix Is In – Ep. 190
* The price of gold continues to retreat
* Gold was down about $12 today; it closed around $1310
* The dollar index up again as more and more people begin to contemplate the possibility of a rate hike in either September or December
* Or maybe even both, because the odds of a rate hike, either in September or December have now increased to about even money
* If you go back to June, the odds were practically zero
* What has changed in the last couple of months?
* The only thing that has really happened is that you've had various Fed officials going out of their way to mention that a rate hike is still possible
* Why would they do that?
* Obviously, a rate hike is possible
* Usually they are asked the question and they mention the possibility
* If the Fed had no intention of raising interest rates, I doubt they would admit it at this juncture
* They want people to believe that a rate hike is possible because if you admit that it's not possible,
* That opens a can of worms that the Fed isn't interested in opening just yet
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/31/2016 • 44 minutes, 25 seconds
Yellen Basically Admits The U.S. Is A Banana Republic – Ep.189
* Earlier today Janet Yellen delivered her much-anticipated and way over-hyped speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium
* It wasn't as irrelevant as I thought it was going to be, but the actual relevant part of the speech was lost on just about everybody
* Instead they keep focusing on whether or not the Fed is going to raise rates by another .25 in September or December or maybe both
* In reality, whether they do or do not is irrelevant, given the nature of where we are and where the U.S. economy actually is
* For a small person, Janet Yellen certainly casts a large shadow over the financial markets
* Everybody was on pins and needles, all the traders were there with their fingers on the buttons waiting to react to anything that Yellen said
* I mentioned on an earlier podcast that there had already been a sell-off on gold stocks a couple of days ago on the anticipation of Yellen's hawkish comments
* The rest of the market seemed to ignore the possibility that Yellen would be a hawk
* Before I discuss what she said, I want to examine whether anyone on the committee could be considered a hawk
* A hawk is predatory; is to be feared, reflecting a tough central banker who believes in sound money
* On the other hand, a dove is cute and fluff; doesn't really hurt anybody
* A dove wants cheap money - keep interests low so as not to harm anybody - nothing to fear
* When it comes to hawks with respect to the Federal Reserve, the bird is extinct
* They are all doves and the only difference is the degree of dovishness
* The hawks are gone and are probably never coming back
* Yellen was not a hawk, and neither was Stan FischerPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/27/2016 • 34 minutes, 7 seconds
When Janet Yellen Talks, Why Do People Still Listen? – Ep. 188
* The price of gold fell about $12/oz today; silver prices were down another .28
* Both metals have been falling since recent new yearly highs
* Gold, though is not very much below the highs
* The real carnage has been in the mining stocks, particularly today; today was one of the biggest down days I've seen all year
* The GDX index was down just over 7%
* Some of the mining stocks were down 10% or more on a very small move in the price of gold and silver
* In fact, we've wiped out the last 2 months of gains in the mining stocks
* What is the catalyst for this?
* Early this morning, around 8:30 - 9:00 New York time before the U.S. Stock Market opened
* No news - gold was up 1 or 2 bucks...
* All of a sudden a huge sell order hits and gold drops about 7 or 8 bucks on no news
* Somebody decided to dump a lot of gold on the market, at one time and didn't really care what the execution price was
* Considering how large the sell order was, it didn't really knock the market down very much
* But the gold stock market was a different story
* It kind of made me think that the rationale for getting gold to drop was the impact it might have on the gold stocks themselves
* My guess is that a lot of people who were running with stops, that's when you have an order to sell below the market to try to protect your profits
* My guess is that they hit a lot of stops today in a lot of these mining stocks and maybe, some of the bigger players were able to buy more gold stocks based on the shake-out that was created
* By a relatively modest drop in the price of gold
* Meanwhile, the dollar didn't rise very much today; the downtrend still seems to be firmly in place
* What everybody seems to be focusing on is the Fed
* People are worried about what Janet Yellen might say on Friday
* The Fed's Jackson Hole Conference gets underway tomorrow and Janet Yellen speaks on Friday
* I guess the thoughts are: "Maybe she will say something hawkish."
* Maybe she'll say the U.S economy is strengthening and the Fed is getting closer to meeting its objectives
* And that a rate hike is possible in the near future
* So what? That's what she always says.
* Now she's not going to come out and say, "We're raising rates for sure. We're moving rates in September."
* The only thing she could say is that a rate hike is still possible
* That is no different than anything that she has said in the past
* So people being nervous about a possible unprecedented hawkish statement makes no sense
* Even in Janet were to say she is raising rates in September and she followed through a rate hike
* So what?
* It's not going to hurt gold and it's not going to help the dollar
* Expected rate hikes were already baked into the dramatic rise of the dollar in 2014-2015
* Gold declined from a high of almost $1900 to a low of $1050 because it was discounting all the rate hikes that are never going to materialize
* Even if we get one or two more, that is nothing compared to market expectations
* Even if we get a couple of small rate hikes, even if we get to .75 or even 1%
* That is still not enough to hurt gold or help the dollar
* When are people going to figure out it doesn't matter what the Fed doesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/25/2016 • 29 minutes, 38 seconds
Fed Advocates Higher Inflation And Larger Deficits! – Ep. 187
* The dollar was broadly weaker today with the dollar index closing down .85 to 94.78
* At that time gold was up about $18; sliver up about .25
* Then all of a sudden New York Fed Chairman William Dudley in an interview on Fox Business basically said that a September rate hike was still possible
* Look, a September alien invasion is still possible, but I'm not going to waste my time preparing for it
* What's amazing to me is how all of the villagers still come running every time a Fed official cries "Wolf!"
* Haven't they noticed that they've cried, "Wolf!" over and over again and there's never a wolf?
* I think that Dudley purposely came out and mentioned a September rate increase just to keep the markets in check; to preserve the false narrative that there is actually a recovery, instead of a bubble
* All of a sudden, gold sold off, it went from +$18 to +$2 or $3
* Silver went negative; it lost its entire rally in a matter of minutes
* I think Dudley was trying to undo the damage done overnight by Dudley's counterpart at the San Francisco Fed, John Williams' well-thought out paper
* Williams wrote in his piece that he believes we're in a "new era". He doesn't understand that the new era that we're in is collateral damage from central bank monetary policy
* They think this is a random occurrence that needs a new government prescription
* John Williams is proposing, based on this "new normal" the neutral interest rate is so low, it's almost impossible for the central banks to get there, absent negative interest rates
* What Williams is proposing, is more inflation
* What he is arguing is that we should scrap this 2% inflation target and that we need a higher number
* I've been saying for years that this is going to happen
* It's just like the unemployment rate, where they said, "We'll raise interest rates if it gets below 6.5% and then we let it go below 5%
* We kept moving that goal post
* I said the same thing was going to happen to inflation
* In fact it is happening. If you look at the CPI numbers that just came out today, we continue to be above the 2% level on the core; we've been there for many months in a row
* Now they're already starting to say, "Hey wait a minute, 2% isn't high enough
* We need more inflation because we need lower rates, and the only way to get there is to have higher inflation
* This is what I have been expecting
* If you read William's piece, he says one of the ways we should get there is for the Fed to target nominal GDP
* In other words, not GDP after you adjust for inflation
* I've argued that the deflator is under the actual inflation number, therefore overestimating GDP growth
* The Fed is saying, "Who cares about the GDP deflator?
* All we care about is the nominal number
* We don't care if the growth is real or inflationary, we just want nominal GDP numbers to go up"
* What good is that?
* No one benefits from phony GDP growth that is simply a by-product of inflation
* The whole point is that we want the economy to actually, grow, not for just prices to go up
* But what the Williams is saying is no, all we care about is prices going up
* It's all about style over substance
* That's why we're stuck in this malaise
* Additionally, what Williams was also arguing for was more fiscal stimulus
* He was saying that we're at the end of our rope with interest rates at practically at zero
* We need the government to provide more stimulus in the form of deficit spending
* We've already got about a $20 trillion national debt
* If deficit spending were stimulative, why haven't we gotten a huge stimulus from that $20 trillion of debt?
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/17/2016 • 34 minutes, 43 seconds
Kill The Estate Tax To Save Jobs – Ep. 186
* Today we got the official numbers for Q2 Non-Farm Productivity and the consensus was that it would increase for the first time in 3 quarters; the prior 2 quarters we saw a decline in productivity
* So analysts were looking for a .5 increase in the second quarter
* Instead, we got a decline of .5
* More importantly, this is the first 3-quarter consecutive decline in productivity since 1979
* That was the Carter years - stagflation, the misery index, sky-high inflation, sky-high interest rates
* That was the last time we had a 3-quarter drop in productivity and President Obama is bragging about how great the recovery is and Hillary Clinton promises more of this
* If you look at the actual size of the decline over those 3 quarters, it's the biggest drop in productivity since 1993
* If you look at the year-over-year decline, this is the biggest decline in productivity in 3 years
* Productivity is extremely important
* Politicians are all talking about higher wages - "We need higher wages!"
* You can't get higher wages without higher productivity.
* That is where higher wages come from
* Now, a lot of politicians want to substitute government decrees - they want to mandate higher wages
* Like minimum wage - we're going to force employers to pay this minimum wage
* All that does, is raise the bar; it makes it harder for unskilled workers to get a job in the first place
* Now employers are forced to pay a wage that may be well above the productivity that they can deliver
* In that case, they can't get the job
* Mimimum Wage doesn't just raise wages, it raises the bar
* Another popular way that politicians try to mandate higher compensation is by mandating benefits such as health care, sick leave, paid vacation days, or overtime
* The idea is that you're getting something for nothing - I voted for this guy and he delivered
* That's not how it works
* When an employer hires somebody, they look at the overall cost of employing that person, relative to the productivity required for the job
* If I am mandated to provide certain benefits, the costs associated with them are also mandated
* If you force the employer to provide benefits at a certain cost, how is he going to pay for it?
* What happens is, the compensation becomes a mix of wages and benefits
* Maybe the worker doesn't perfer that, maybe the worker just wants the higher wage
* The worker can't have it because the government took that decision away by mandating that a portion of the pay include benefits, whether the worker wants them or not
* The politicians hope the voters fall for the idea that they got something for nothing
* That's government for you. They always want you to think you're getting something for nothing
* But the something for nothing costs a lot more than you think because the nothing is not nothing
* In this case, wages go down so the benefits can go up
* Everybody would be better off if the government stayed out and let each worker negotiate independently with the employer for a compensation package that is most valuable to that worker
* But productivity is really the holy grail of higher wages
* If we really want higher wages we need to raise productivity and that's not happening
* If productivity is going down, wages are going down
* If you want wages to go up, you have to have higher productivity
* How do you get that? Less government, lower taxes, higher interest rates so we get more savings and more investment and less of all this speculation and paper-shuffling that we have in this bubble economy
* I want to talk also on this podcast about Donald Trump's economic speech yesterday
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/10/2016 • 28 minutes, 23 seconds
“Strong” Jobs Report More Politics Than Economics – Ep. 185
* What a difference a week makes, or maybe and economic report
* The two big reports that everybody seems to focus on are the GDP numbers and the jobs numbers
* It seems that the weaker the economy is, as measured by GDP, the more jobs, somehow, the economy seems to create
* We got the jobs report for July and just a week earlier we got Q2 GDP
* As I spoke about on the last podcast, that number was basically half of what Wall Street had been anticipating - less than half
* They were looking for 2.4 or 2.6 and we got 1.2
* Even worse, we went back and revised down the prior 2 quarters to below 1%
* That very weak number caused people to talk about the fact that the Fed can't raise rates, the economy is weaker than we thought, are we slipping back into recession?...
* Now fast forward a week, and we get a Non-Farm Payroll report that is higher than anticipated and now all of a sudden people are starting to talk about September rate hikes again
* Obviously, withe the stock market on Friday rising to a new record high, I doubt the equity traders actually believe that Friday's jobs report is going to produce a rate hike
* Yet it doesn't stop all the financial journalists writing about how this confirms that the recovery is on track, and the Fed can raise rates
* This jobs report doesn't confirm anythingPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/6/2016 • 37 minutes, 45 seconds
Will The Fed Sacrifice The Recovery Myth To Save The Markets? – Ep.184
* The carnage in global stock and bond markets continues; it really got started last night in Japan
* The JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) dropped for the 3rd consecutive day
* The biggest 3-day drop in bond prices in Japan in over 3 years, so yields surging, along with the Japanese yen
* Of course, this is not supposed to be happening because they're doing more stimulus and they've got negative interest rates, yet the Japanese yen is appreciating anyway
* The Reserve Bank of Australia also came out last night and cut interest rates to 1.5%
* That is an all-time record low
* Why did they do that? Is it because there's not enough economic growth in Australia?
* Are they trying to revive a slumping property market
* They've got a bubble in the real estate market - there's no valid reason for cutting interest rates from already low levels
* The actual reason that the Reserve Bank of Australia gave for the rate cut was that inflation was not high enough
* It's about 1%, the way they measure it, and their goal is to have it between 2 and 3%
* In other words, the cost of living is going up by 1% a year and the Reserve Bank of Australia says, "That's horrible! We need to make sure that things get at least 2-3% more expensive this year and we're going to slash interest rates to make sure that happens."
* Of course, when you do that, you have all sorts of risks, and what is the payoff?
* Why is the cost of living going up 2-3% better than it going up 1%?
* What's wrong with the cost of living not going up at all?
* How about if it actually went down? What if people could actually buy the things they need for less money?
* What's horrible about the standard of living actually going up?
* Of course, the real risk is, what if inflation goes from 1% (at least the way they measure it) to 4 or 5%?
* Was it worth it? Now you have an inflation problem on your hands
* If you've got 1% and you want 2% - You're close enough!
* Obviously this has got nothing to do with inflation, they're simply trying to stop the rise in the Australian dollar
* But the Australian dollar went up anyway!
* They're trying to keep it down because they have this Keynesian world view that a weak currency is good and a strong currency is bad
* But we've got to an inflection point where the central banks are losing this battle
* The yen is rising despite the efforts to suppress it
* The Aussie dollar went up, despite efforts to suppress it
* The problem is, the U.S. economy is a disaster
* We got the terrible GDP numbers, and we got a lot of other bad economic news today
* We've got a lot more bad news coming out later in the week
* We might get a horrific report on non-farm payrolls
* We got that surprise good number last month, but who knows? We might revise that down and come up with another disappointing number on Friday
* But the Fed, instead of acknowledging this, are still talking about rate hikes
* In fact a Fed official just yesterday said the market should not rule out the possibility of a rate hike in September
* First of all, if the economy comes roaring back (no chance that's going to happen)
* Even if it comes back, they didn't say they WOULD raise interest rates, they said they might
* Which also means they might not
* It doesn't matter what happens to the economy, they can't raise rates
* The economy is not getting better
* We are either in recession or on the cusp of one
* And the data continues to prove that, but the Fed continues to talk as if they're thinking about raising rates
* That is part of the problem, because if the market doesn't believe that the Fed is coming to the rescue...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/3/2016 • 32 minutes, 11 seconds
FOMC Upstaged By DNC – Ep. 183
* Today the Federal Reserve concluded its 2-day FOMC meeting and it announced - surprise, surprise - that interest rates are not going up
* But of course the statement was much more important than their actions because these days, it doesn't matter what the Fed does; all that matters is what they say they're going to do, or more accurately, what they will pretend to do
* It really doesn't matter what they say, they're not going to do anything
* I explained that on my last podcast; I explained it again on CNBC Futures Now
* People obviously still don't get it and I continue to use the analogy of Teddy Roosevelt's "Speak softly and carry a big stick." but if you have no stick, which is the situation with the Fed, then you have to speak loudly, and if you speak loudly enough, nobody will notice that you have no stick at all
* That's what the Fed did today when they did not raise rates, but released their somewhat hawkish statement, saying that the near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished
* What does that mean?
* We think the economy looks better, and therefore a rate hike might be appropriate
* The Fed said that the job market had strengthened, which it did for one month - we had one strong month, but it is a low bar
* But that is only superficial - when you look beneath the surface, it is worse
* According to the Fed, the job market strengthened and the economy is expanding at a moderate rate
* If we have an strengthening job market and the economy is expanding moderately, why are interest rates still practically zero?
* The Fed mentioned that household spending is growing, but again the bar is set pretty low
* The continued to say that they believe the economy is evolving in a way that will warrant gradual rate hikes
* By gradual they mean, "No more rate hikes."
* They raised rates once in January and they haven't raised them since
* I think the tightening cycle ended when they raised rates, and began when they started to talk about tapering
* We are now in an easing cycle
* Despite some general better-than-expected economic data, we got some very weak news this morning
* We got the number for June Durable Goods and they were looking for a decline of 1.3%
* We got triple that decline: 4% decline and in fact they took the may number down from -2.2% to -2.8%
* Year over year we're down 6.4% - that's a huge decline
* The biggest decline in 2 years
* If you look at the core capital goods, down again 3.7%
* This is a massive streak - we've now seen the year-over-year core number down 18 months in a row
* The longest losing streak in history when the U.S. economy was not in recession
* I believe that this streak will continue and ultimately it will be longest losing streak ever - including recessions
* Which would mean that year-over-year core durable goods would have been weaker during this "recovery" than in any prior recession on record
* What does that tell you about the character about the so-called recovery, if is produces data that is even worse than during an official recession?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/28/2016 • 29 minutes, 29 seconds
Playing The Trump Card – Ep. 182
* It's official. The unthinkable, according to the status quo earlier in the campaign, Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee
* Although many wrote him off as a candidate, I never did; I always said he was being underestimated
* I believed his message would resonate given how horrible the economy actually is and what is really happening beneath the headlines
* Everybody was proclaiming recovery and that we're on the right track and I knew that that wasn't the case
* I knew there would be a lot of dissatisfaction among the electorate on both sides of the aisle
* Even after Donald Trump locked up the Republican nomination, everybody was still writing him off
* The idea was, "He's going to lose in a landslide"
* Republican establishment said, "Abandon ship!", distancing themselves from Trump to maintain the House and the Senate, writing off the White House
* Maybe run against Hillary in 4 years
* That was the general consensus
* Again, I kept saying the the media and the political establishment on both sides were underestimating Donald Trump and the potential appeal of a Trump presidency
* I think that the speech he gave at the convention really proves that point
* I thought his speech was brilliant.
* When I say brilliant, I don't necessarily agree with everything he said; I clearly don't
* I'm talking about the political perspective
* Was this an effective speech to set the tone of the campaign?
* In that respect, I think he hit the ball out of the park
* The most clever thing about his speech is he didn't go after the Republicans
* He went after the Democrats
* He went after their base; their core constituency
* He is bringing the fight to their turf
* He went for the women, he went for the minorities
* Not just African Americans and Latinos, but the LGBTQ and the blue collar workers
* Donald Trump did not go after the entrepreneur
* He didn't promise to get government off your back and free up the businessman from red tape
* That's a typical Republican acceptance speech
* He said, "I'm going to be the champion of the little guy."
* The downtrodden, the forgotten voter
* "I'm your guy! The system has been rigged against you and because I have been part of the problem, I'm the only one who can deliver the solution"
* I think this is a very powerful strategy
* Because the Democrats have been taking their constituency for granted
* What Donald Trump says is, "Why are you blindly supporting the Democratic nominee?"
* What have they done for you? Nothing.
* He will bring up the shocking statistics that have been getting worse under 7 years of Barack Obama
* The horrible unemployment in the African American community
* The inner city crime
* The government dependency. The despair.
* Why are African Americans handing their votes to a Democrat?
* The Democrats have let them down and failed them
* Donald Trump will say, "I won't do that. Trust me."
* "I will deliver on the broken promises of generations of Democrats."
* What about women?
* Instead of denying the gender gap, he just accepted it.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/23/2016 • 42 minutes, 46 seconds
One Quarter-Point Rate Hike Does Not Make Me Wrong – Ep. 181
* I was in Las Vegas for the Freedom Fest and following that I went to Vancouver for a one-day gold conference
* One of the things I wanted to discuss was some discussion about me on the www.kitco.com website and I think it was prompted by my itnterview with kitco, which you can see on my YouTube Channel
* Whenever there is a discussion about me an argument develops between those who want to believe I never get anything right and those with believe I get a lot of things right
* I thought one part of the discussion was quite amusing
* Of course, I never claim to be infallible; when you make a lot of projections they don't all turn out to be right
* Nobody is 100% right on anything that they say
* The key is, are you right more often than you are wrong
* And when you're wrong, do you change your mind, when the facts change, which is something that I do
* But people will always go back and focus on a quote from years ago and say, "Look here's a quote from Peter Schiff saying interest rates would go up, and Look! now they're down"
* I did not expect the bond bubble to get this big
* Who thought we'd have half of the sovereign debt trading for negative yields?
* Very few people envisioned that, but it happened
* For the last several years I have said nothing about higher interest rates
* I do believe that when the bond bubble bursts rates will spike up
* But I don't know when that is going to happen
* If you've made enough forecasts, one can always find things that have not panned out
* But these people overlook the overwhelming number of forecasts I've gotten right
* One of the forecasts people used to make fun of me about was a forecast I made on a show called, "Southland Today"
* I put that up on the internet years ago, it's a 2002 interview and if you watch that clip, you'll recognize that a lot of the things I said in that interview were used to form the introduction to the old, "Wall Street Unspun" the precursor to the Peter Schiff Show
* The intro for that show included many quotes that were lifted from the "Southland Today" interview
* During that interview, I said I thought the Dow would go down to 4000
* Of course a lot happened between 2002 and now
* What did happen is that after I did that interview the market fell precipitously; the Dow did drop another 25-30%
* The NASDAQ maybe even more
* What happened between that interview and the market falling is that Alan Greenspan slashed interest rates down to 1%, and at the time of the interview I did not know he was going to do that
* I thought Alan Greenspan would be smarter than that
* If Alan Greenspan had not slashed interest rates, my forecast would have been correct
* Once Greenspan lowered interest rates, of course, I changed my forecast and became bullish on the market when it was still quite a bit lower
* 6yyj6e69Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/20/2016 • 37 minutes, 50 seconds
SchiffGold Joint Venture With GoldMoney
* I'm sitting with Josh Crumb, the co-founder of a company that was originally called BitGold but following the acquisition of James Turk's GoldMoney they rebranded their company as GoldMoney
* I agree with that decision because I think GoldMoney is more descriptive of what they are really doing with gold, than is BitGold
* But the reason we're sitting here today is because I was so impressed with their company after having lengthy conversations with the other co-founder, Roy Sebag, that I really agreed with Roy and I thought that the best thing for us to do was to join forces and to combine both companies to the mutual benefit of both investors and, more importantly customers of both my company SchiffGold, and GoldMoney
* So we've agreed on a merger and we've formed a joint venture between the two companies
* What I wanted to announce today is what this new joint venture means for current customers of my company, SchiffGold
* One of the things customers might be thinking is: "Does this mean that my experience is going to change?"
* GoldMoney (BitGold) is much more of an internet-based program where people are not interacting with live representatives
* The answer to that question is no.
* Nothing is going to change regarding the our customers' relationships with SchiffGold
* In fact, what we're hoping to achieve is to bring some of that personal service to the current GoldMoney customersPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/9/2016 • 59 minutes, 19 seconds
Market Reaction To Jobs Report Confirms My Hypothesis – Ep. 180
* Today we got the Non-Farm Payroll report for the month of June
* Remember the last 2 reports were quite weak and everybody was hoping for a rebound in June to prove that April and May were a fluke and not a new trend
* In fact the Fed talked about that in their last FOMC meeting minutes
* The consensus was for 180,000 jobs to be created and the range went from a low of 130,000 to as high as 235,000
* The consensus average of that range was 180,000
* The actual number came in at 287,000, over 100,000 jobs above the consensus
* Now we did revise down the really bad number from May, and made it even worse
* Initially that number was 38,000 jobs and now we know it was just 11,000 jobs
* So about 70% of the jobs disappeared
* I have a good feeling that the reason June's number is so high is that it's just wrong, and we'll see what kind of revision we get to it next month
* Remember, a good chunk of these numbers are jobs that the government assumes were created without evidence, based on the birth-death model
* I would suggest that far fewer businesses are actually being formed than the government believes
* In fact, its possible that more business are shutting down than are hiring
* Given the economy and the minimum wage, those business that are starting up are hiring fewer people than start-up historically hire
* I think these guesstimates are wildly optimistic and skewing all the numbers
* Unemployment rate, which was 4.7 last month and expected to notch up to 4.8, instead notched up higher to 4.9
* Private payrolls which were expected to rise by $170,000 jumped by $265,000
* But last month they revised a $25,000 gain to a $6,000 loss
* Why did unemployment move up? Because the labor force participation rate notched up from 62.6 to 62.7
* Obviously not all the people who re-joined the labor force could find jobs
* Average hourly earnings were expected to rise by .2%
* Again they disappointed; they rose by just .1%
* Overall, a mixed picture, but the headline number, the 287,000 vs 180,000 consensus
* That's normally the number the market trades off
* And that is exactly what happened - as soon as the report came out we had a big jump in the dollar index and we had a big selloff in Gold
* Gold started out largely unchanged, went down about $22 on the news
* Silver sold off, it was down about 40-50 cents
* That was the knee-jerk reaction: strong dollar, weak gold, weak silver
* Why?
* A strong jobs number means the Fed is more likely to raise rates, right?
* Rate hike is coming, good for the dollar, bad for gold
* But what did I say on Wednesday's podcast?
* I said that it didn't matter what the jobs number was
* That gold was not going to go down, and if it was a weak number, I expected a big rally in gold
* But I also said that a strong number would not hurt gold
* Earlier in the year, a strong number would crush gold
* I said that what's going on, and based on the latest FOMC minutes, I don't care what the jobs number is
* The Fed is not going to raise rates
* Jobs have nothing to do with it, Jobs are the excuse
* The Fed can't raise rates now because of the fragility in the banking system, all the things that were revealed by Brexit
* The market is sensing that and that's why within the first hour gold reversed all of its losses and finished the day up about $5.60 at $1365.40
* The highest close of the year on a day when we had a huge beat in the Non-Farm Payrolls
* Silver had an even more impressive reversal; it rallied over $1
* Stocks really broke out; the GDX was up over 30% today to close at $30.54
* Not quite the highest close of the year
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/9/2016 • 24 minutes, 40 seconds
Fed Minutes Reveal The Easing Cycle Has Already Begun – Ep. 179
* Gold and silver prices continue to march higher
* Gold was up another $7 today; it closed at $1363.20 - that is the high for the year
* Silver was up .15 at $20.06
* Silver is now going up relative to the price of gold which is very for the precious metals complex
* Gold stocks are on fire; the XAU index, a gold stock index was up 3.27% today
* It's now up better than 135% on the year and well over 150% from the lows on the third week in January
* But do you think that any major players on Wall Street have recommended gold stocks?
* Do any of the big hedge funds have positions in gold?
* No! They are clueless
* What is happening, as I have said before, is that there is a picture, that's kind of blurry, but it's coming into focus, still not clear, but it's a game changer
* The perception is that we had this great recovery and that the Fed was going to be able to unwind its balance sheet, normalize interest rates and everything was going to be great
* So the whole investment world was preparing for higher rates, a stronger dollar and a stronger U.S. economy
* But what is the actual picture?
* The actual picture is an economic recovery that is over, if it ever even happened,
* The Fed is finished tightening and they're about to start a new easing campaign
* We're not done with QE; we're just getting started - QE3 is closer to the beginning than the end
* Rather than shrinking the balance sheet, it's about to explode
* This picture is getting clearer and now you see the markets re-pricing
* Gold is going up every day
* Gold stocks are going up
* The banks are getting crushed
* The European banks hit new lows again today
* FOMC minutes came out for June and what did the minutes reveal?
* The members were concerned about weakening employment number and they wanted more data before raising rates
* They wanted to make sure the weakening numbers were an aberration rather than a new trend
* Who didn't see that coming?
* Also they wanted to see what happened with the Brexit vote
* We knew about the Brexit vote all year - why did the Fed ever pretend that they would raise rates in June?
* Because they wanted the market to believe that a rate hike was possible because it validates the phony recovery
* So now the instead of raising rates, they spoke about raising them and they are going to cut rates by just talking about reducing them
* They can do a lot by adjusting their rhetoric before they actually cut rates
* They are already cutting by backtracking their rhetoric, because that's all they've got
* Teddy Roosevelt said, "Walk softly but carry a big stick."
* The Fed has to speak loudly because it has no stickPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/7/2016 • 32 minutes, 58 seconds
Why Buy Bonds When You Can Buy Gold? – Ep. 178
* I wish everybody a happy July 4th weekend; U.S. markets will be closed
* It's unfortunate that we can't really celebrate all the traditions that we're supposed to be honoring were lost generations ago
* The values our founding fathers risked their lives for have all been lost
* I wanted to comment on what is going on in the markets particularly today
* Today was the capper on the week
* You had silver prices up about a dollar an ounce
* Gold closed up about $19, so gold closed above $1340
* Maybe by the time the market opens on Tuesday silver will be over $20/ounce
* Who knows, maybe gold will be over $1400?
* This is a powerful rally - gold finished at three year highs today
* GDX was up about 5% on the day
* The stock market didn't do that much today, but the real story, other than the gold market is in the bond market
* U.S. Treasury yield plunging again - these are the lowest yields ever
* Certainly below the crash lows
* The yield on the 10-year treasury is below 1.5%
* The yield on the 10-year treasury is 2.24%
* So yields are plunging, bond prices are surging
* What is going on?
* The answer is money printing; Quantitative Easing
* The most recent catalyst being the Brexit vote, which scared the hell out of everybody because of the collapse, particularly of the European banks
* Now the central bankers are rushing to the rescue all around the worldPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/1/2016 • 26 minutes, 26 seconds
If The Markets Were Healthy Brexit Would Be A Non- Event – Ep.177
* It was Turnaround Tuesday in the global financial markets as stocks are recovering from 2 days of carnage following the surprise Brexit vote in the U.K.
* The Dow was up almost 270 points today, NASDAQ up about 97
* But really the markets got beaten up the last couple days
* The smallest bounce was from the banks, which have been beaten up the most
* So they had the biggest drop and the smallest bounce
* Which really shows you how weak that sector is
* It couldn't even manage much of a dead cat bounce
* In fact, the carnage in, particularly the European banks is much bigger than it was during the financial crisis of '08
* This really shows you how much more levered up the banking system must be, thanks to all these years of QE and negative interest rates
* And of course, how much farther behind can the American banks be from their European cousins?
* U.S bank stocks, too, were hitting 52-week lows yesterday
* I still think there's a lot of carnage coming
* Some banks may be in a position where they are going to have to raise equity, which means they'll have to sell stock
* Clearly the market is not going to like that
* But again, everybody is blaming this on all the uncertainty surrounding Brexit
* To me, if we had a healthy financial system, if the markets were sound, and prices were based on fundamentals
* Would it really make that much of a difference if the UK were in the EU or not?
* What is being revealed here is the fragility of the whole system that is being propped up artificially by the banks
* By cheap money, low interest rates - everybody is speculating
* And everybody is assuming that the powers that be, whether it is the politicians, the governments or the central banks have everything under control
* It's a big put out there and nothing can go wrong
* And then when something does go wrong, then people get nervous
* The wake up and say, "Wait a minute! Maybe it's not as safe as we thought!"Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/29/2016 • 33 minutes, 54 seconds
Brexit Is Not The Reason; It’s The Catalyst – Ep. 176
* The British actually voted to leave the EU and it wasn't even that close
* I think by midnight last night EDT it was obvious that Leave was going to beat Remain
* I think it ended up 52% voting to Brexit and 48% voting to remain
* Of course, the markets were taken by surprise, in fact, we had a rally in to the close on Thursday as everybody was so confident that the polls would be right, and the online casinos would be right and that it was pretty much a sure thing that the British would vote to remain
* All of the experts, the economists and the political elites around the world, including President Obama had lectured the British as to why the smart thing is to stay in the EU and how dangerous it would be, economic Armageddon - if they voted to leave
* Of course this may have been reverse psychology
* Especially when you've been sold a bill of goods over and over again, with cost of living rising and standard of living going down
* The may be reaching for straws in the same manner as the Americans are voting for Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders
* The straw that they had was Brexit
* I think the markets are overreacting to the implications of the U.K. leaving the EU
* After all, think of all the countries that aren't in the EU
* Why aren't we all members?
* Why doesn't the U.S. join?
* They can't even get Switzerland to join the EU and it's located smack in the middle of Europe
* One of the reasons why Switzerland is so prosperous is that it had the good sense not to join the EU
* I think the markets believed their own hype
* For so long, we've been talking about how awful it would be if the British actually voted to leave that when they did so, it was a self-fulfilling prophecy
* Everybody is in this for a quick trade
* A lot of traders are all levered up and do the minute this thing happened everybody hit the same sell button
* This is just about traders having to reverse their bets
* Look at what happened in the flight to safety - the dollar was way up against the pound
* The pound really got "pounded" - it had its biggest down day in history
* It was pounded even harder relative to gold - the price of gold in terms of the British pound rose above 1000 pounds per ounce last night
* Gold was the strongest monetary asset of the day, but #2 was the yen
* At one point I saw the yen was up 5% against the dollar, which meant it was up about 15% against the pound
* Now why is everybody buying the yen, why are they buying the dollar?
* People say it's a safe haven - not really.
* Does anyone think that the Japanese economy is a bastion of safety?
* Why would anybody worried about Europe buy the dollar?
* Think about the irony of this: people are so worried about Britain leaving the EU that they're selling the pound to buy the Swiss franc - a country that never entered the Eurozone
* It's not about safety. It's about risk-on and risk-off
* What is risk-on? That is when you buy risky assets like stocks
* How does the leveraged speculative community fund a risk-on trade? they go to the funding currencies where you can borrow cheaply
* The most popular funding currency is the Japanese yen because they pay you to borrow in yen
* So it's real cheap, you can lever up, and to a lesser extent the dollar is a funding currency - we've had very low interest rates, especially relative to our rate of inflationPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/25/2016 • 30 minutes, 35 seconds
Janet Yellen Doesn’t Know Murphy’s Law – Ep.175
* I'm on vacation this week but I did take a little time out to little time out to listen to Janet Yellen's semi-annual "Humphrey-Hawkins" testimony - she testified first before the Senate, that was yesterday and today she was before the house
* It used to be a lot more interesting with Ron Paul was on the house banking committee and you could see Ron Paul asking questions to Ben Bernanke
* I really would like to hear Rand Paul questioning Janet Yellen but unfortunately, we don't have that opportunity
* Also, the big news, we are on the eve of the Brexit vote in the U.K.; it's going to be on Thursday
* Polls of investor sentiment show the remain camp is firmly in the lead
* Betting certainly shows that more money is on the remain, but more people are betting on leave
* Probably, though the remain camp will carry the day; the forces of big government are very hard to overcome
* Nowhere is big government better exemplified than in the case of the Federal Reserve, which is the combination of big government and central banking
* Janet Yellen's testimony, I thought, was relatively boring, but I'm going to go over some of the more important tidbits
* Yellen keeps referring to the recovery that appears to be on track and the rate hike is just around the corner
* All this is nonsense - if the Fed were going to raise rates, they would have already done so
* One senator or congressman asked Yellen about the box the Fed might be in because the rates are still so low, what tools does Yellen have to fight off the next recession
* Yellen confidently replied that we have all the tools we've always had, which is true
* They still have those tools; the problem is that these tools have never worked
* They can't cut rates, much, they can print all the money they want, they can do QE4, it can be bigger than QE3, and it probably will be
* Even though Janet Yellen, in response to a direct question about negative interest rates, said that she didn't think the Fed would go there, well we'll see
* When push comes to shove they may be more willing to go there than they are right now because they still want to pretend that the recovery is on track, so why even bring up negative rates when you're talking about raising rates
* So I think once the conversation turns then negative rates may be a more serious consideration
* One of the congressmen asked about Puerto Rico and Janet Yellen said, "No, there's nothing we can do, Puerto Rico is on it's own."
* I wish the Fed would have had the same attitude about the mortgage market
* The Federal Reserve has no problem buying up toxic mortgages but they wouldn't touch Puerto Rican sovereign debt with ta 10-foot pole
* Which leads you to believe how risky that debt much be
* I wish the Fed would do the same thing to the U.S. government - force the U.S. government to make those tough choices
* In fact, there was a House member, today, who talked to Janet Yellen about the independent central banks and Janet Yellen bluffed, that if interest rates, and that was a problem for Congress, that Congress would have to deal with the problem
* I don't believe her for a second
* I believe on of the reasons, specifically that Janet Yellen doesn't want to raise rates is that she knows that will complicate the budget situation in Washington because the Federal Government can't afford to pay higher interest rates
* If the Federal Reserve already bailed out the government by doing QE and buying all these bonds, why are they going to change course?
* I don't believe for a second Janet Yellen's tough talk about how independent the Federal Reserve is and how if the situation warranted it, they would raise interest rates and Congress would have to deal with the consequences
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/23/2016 • 22 minutes, 37 seconds
Alien Invasion More Likely Than July Rate Hike – Ep.174
* Gold closed the week at the highest weekly close since January of 2015
* Not quite above the $1300 benchmark - I think we closed about $1298 - up about $20 on the day
* Intra-day yesterday, gold was well above $1300
* Until there was news that a British Member of Parliament was shot and that somehow revised hope for the "stay" vote in the Brexit referendum
* As if the price of gold is going up based on the outcome of that vote
* As far as I'm concerned next week's vote is a non-event for the gold market
* The conventional wisdom seems to believe that if Britain leaves, all hell is going to break loose in Europe
* I guess all this chaos is supposed to be bullish for gold
* If Britain votes to stay, the euro will go up and that might be bullish for gold, because a weak dollar is generally bullish for gold
* I think gold will go up regardless of the British vote
* The price of gold is not going up because of what's happening in Europe
* It's going up because of what's happening in the United States
* More specifically at the Federal Reserve
* The Federal Reserve concluded its June meeting on Wednesday and Janet Yellen - surprise! did not raise interest rates
* If you remember, a few months ago, some minutes leaked to the public caused the public to think the Fed would raise rates in June for sure - maybe July, but probably June
* And gold tanked and the dollar rallied and I said, "I don't think so."
* There's nothing in these minutes that say the Fed is going to do anything
* It's the same old Open Mouth Operation
* If you read between the lines, they didn't commit to anything
* But she cried wolf and everybody came running, and
* Not only did the Fed not raise in June but they backtracked on their intentions to raise rates in the future
* They toned down their so-called dot plots for this year and next year
* Now, instead of announcing the first rate hike of the year, they actually pushed back expectations
* There were a lot of articles about the Fed losing credibility, the Fed surrendering
* This is what I have been forecasting
* None of this is a surprise to faithful listeners to this podcast
* Those who have been listening to the talking heads on the major media outlets expect the Fed to raise rates because they actually believe that the Fed's policies have worked and that we have a recovery
* They have not figured out that this is a bubble
* They never figure it out until after the bubble has burst
* If you go back and read the transcript of Janet Yellen's press conference, she's still talking about a July rate hike
* If she had been honest, she would have said,"Why would we raise rates in July? We didn't raise them in June, what is going to change in a month?
* But she is still on script: she said, "I guess it's not impossible that we could raise rates in July"
* So that's what it's come to:
* It's come to, "We're probably going to raise rates in June or July" and now we're at, "I guess it's not impossible"
* There a lot of things that are not impossible. It's not impossible that aliens are going to invade the Earth in JulyPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/17/2016 • 31 minutes, 50 seconds
Brexit Not The Reason Fed Won’t Hike In June – Ep. 173
* This is the week of the June FOMC meeting, although it's really going to be a dud
* For a while there was speculation that the Fed was going to pull the trigger and increase interest rates for the second in almost 10 years - for the first time this year
* I don't know if anybody expects the Fed to raise rates on Wednesday - it's a 2 day meeting, it gets started tomorrow and we get the announcement on Wednesday afternoon
* Brexit was one of the things they were concerned about
* Now the polls are showing that a British exit of the EU is becoming more and more likely and that was one of the things supposedly the Fed was concerned about
* I think all that is an excuse - they're really concerned about the U.S. bubble economy and domestic problems
* But they don't want to acknowledge that so they want to rationalize their decisions with problems abroad
* That vote is looking like it may go the wrong way as far as the powers that be are concerned
* I've already mentioned on this podcast that if I were in Britain, I would vote to go
* It's not because I'm anti free trade, I'm for free trade - it's just that the EU is no longer about free trade
* That was its initial pretext and it might have been a good idea, but no idea that involves more government can ever be good
* The problem with government is that it grows and grows and grows
* Like the camel getting its nose under the tent
* That's what happening in the EU and the British are finally saying we've had enough
* It's too bad the British don't have enough with their own big government, but they don't want big government imposed from Brussels
* Whatever benefits member nations got in the beginning from freer trade, they've lost from regulations, taxation and micro-management coming out of the EU
* As I said before, the only reason there was a need for the EU is because governments impose too many tariffs and regulation and theoretically the solution was to let some other entity circumvent all the other government regulation
* And they made the deal with the devil and it didn't work out
* But the same thing is true in the United States
* The original American colonies all made a deal - we came together, abandoned the Articles of Confederation we went for a less weak central government and we passed the Constitution of the United States
* But the problem is, the Federal government is not abiding by its constitutional restraints on its powers
* The Federal government is not acting the way the framers envisioned, it has usurped powers that were not granted to it in the Constitution, so the Federal government is no longer a benefit to the United States, just like the EU is not longer a benefit to Europe
* The difference is, the EU disintegrated a lot quicker
* The U.S. government lasted for a much longer period of time, and was a positive factor for the colonies
* But the EU quickly degenerated
* Every time you can remove a layer of government, you restore more freedom and prosperity
* So I wish the British luck with their revolution
* So this is just one more cloud on the horizon providing a reason for the Fed not to raise rates this week
* A more important reason is the stock market
* Once again on the decline, the NASDAQ is down a little over 2% over the last 2 days
* The Dow Jones is down about 1.5% - down a little more than 130 points today
* Meanwhile gold continues to rise
* The last 2 days it was up about $15 - nothing huge, but it is making progress toward the $1300 level
* It was up about $10 today - we closed around $1284
* I don't know if the Orlando terrorist event had anything to do with the weakness in the market today - probably not
* But psychologically,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/14/2016 • 35 minutes, 53 seconds
Government Schools Dumb Down The Electorate – Ep.172
* Janet Yellen spoke yesterday and this was the first time she spoke following the release of the much weaker than expected Non-Farm Payroll report that we got on Friday
* Not only was the month of May much weaker than expected but they revised down the prior month which was already weaker than expected and now it is even more weak
* This is the first time the Fed had a chance to react, remember Janet Yellen and all her cohorts at the Fed had been talking about how the economy is getting better and how we're getting ready for a summer rate hike
* Everybody was thinking, "Will they move in June or will they wait until July?
* Of course, I was saying all along that I doubted that they would move in either month
* They did make it clear, if you read the FOMC minutes that it was contingent on the labor market improving
* I had already pointed out that based on the most recent jobs report the labor market was already not improving, it was getting worse, and now we know it is even worse than the Fed would have understood
* By the time the minutes were released we had had all this bad news
* While people were jumping to the conclusion that the Fed was about to hike rates, even though the labor market had weakened since they expressed those sentiments and the Fed specifically said that the rate hike was contingent on improvements in the labor market, and we were getting the reverse
* I never understood why so many people were so convinced that a rate hike this summer was a fait accomplit
* But now all the people who were so convinced have caved in and no longer expect a rate hike in June or July, but they're talking September! Why?
* Well Janet Yellen spoke yesterday and she's still talking about rate hikes
* She still said she thinks the economy is improving and at some point rate hikes will be appropriate
* Well of course! That qualifies as a "Duh!" Obviously if the economy was improving, rate hikes would be appropriate, in fact they're appropriate right now
* They're appropriate even if the economy is not improving, because interest rates are much too low
* I believe one of the reasons the economy is so weak is because interest rates are so low
* Now I understand that if we raise interest rates we're going to burst this bubble
* If we raise interest rates, the stock market will come down, the real estate market will come down and that's going to be a big problem for a lot of people, in particular the banks
* And I know that when interest rates go up, all the people who borrowed so much money when they were so low, including the U.S. government, will be in a lot of trouble
* The Federal Reserve itself is going to be in a lot of trouble because it has an enormous portfolio, a balance sheet of long term bonds that will collapse in value when it raises rates
* I am not a Pollyanna, thinking if we raise interest rates everything is great - no, it is a disaster
* But it is a bigger disaster if we don't raise interest rates and keep waiting because we don't want to deal with the consequencesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/8/2016 • 39 minutes, 26 seconds
May Jobs Report Takes June Rate Hike Off The Table – SchiffReport
* It was a few weeks ago, following the release of the FOMC meetings, in which the various governors appeared quite hawkish in their tone
* They were talking about the resurgent U.S. economy, the strengthening labor market and that they thought it would be appropriate to raise interest rates in June
* As a result of that, the markets reacted, the dollar had a big rise, gold dropped
* Gold had risen to almost $1300 when everybody thought the Fed wasn't going to raise rates
* Now as soon as the Fed changed the conversation, and they put rate hikes back on the table, gold touched below $1200
* The dollar index got as high as 96 earlier this week
* But the catalyst for the rally of the dollar and the decline in gold was the Fed, and the anticipation of rate hikes coming this month
* In fact, in the days and weeks that followed the release of the unexpectedly hawkish FOMC minutes various Fed officials were out giving speeches
* Every one of them talked about how it was going to be appropriate to raise rates, how we are bouncing back from the unexpected Q1 weakness, and that now the Fed is finally going to resume normalizing rates
* The first time they raised rates was December last year; of course they talked about it all year before they finally went up by a quarter point
* If they went up by another quarter point in June of this year, it's still, it's still a pace much slower than Greenspan used
* He was moving up a quarter every time they met
* This would be a quarter every 6 months
* Even if the Fed were going to raise rates in June, that would have been the only hike of the year
* I didn't even believe that they were going to do it in Juneof
* If you listen to one of my recent podcasts at the beginning of the June rate hike talk, I was saying,
* "How can they talk about a June rate hike? They haven't seen the May jobs report, which will come out in the first week of June, and if that jobs report is weak, they're not going to raise rates
* And even if they did raise rates, it's too little too late
* It's not going to be good for the dollar, it's not going to hurt gold because the FOREX markets and the metal exchange markets have priced in far more rate hikes than the Fed could possibly deliver
* In fact if they did raise rates, that would be the end of the cycle and by the end of the year they would be cutting rates
* The market is anticipating a normalization
* And if you remember, too, it wasn't just that the Fed was going to raise rates, they were going to shrink the balance sheet
* Janet Yellen was saying she was going to get the balance sheet back down to where it started
* I was saying she was lying back then
* The balance sheet has not shrunk at all
* That is because the proceeds of every maturing bond have been reinvested
* Every nickel earned in interest has been reinvested also
* So the Fed hasn't even started to unwind the balance sheet, and they've barely raised interest rates
* But I did say that if we got a weak jobs report, that would clearly take rate hikes off the table
* I believe they were never on the table and that's exactly what we got June 3
* The Labor Department dropped a bombshell on the markets
* A relative weak report of 170,000 was expected due to the Verizon strike
* The actual number of jobs created in May was 38,000
* That is the lowest number in 6 years
* But it gets worse: they revised last month's number, which was also weaker than expected, from 200,000 to 123,000
* The expectation was that this number would be revised up
* They even revised down the month before by another 10,000
* You've got 123,000 jobs in April and just 38,000 jobs in May
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/4/2016 • 28 minutes, 7 seconds
Yellen Loves Economics; Too Bad She Doesn’t Understand It – Ep. 171
* Well the tone and tenor of the discourse of the various market pundits and Wall Street economists seems to be that this recovery is on track
* I guess there were some doubts about the recovery until the Federal Reserve laid all those doubts to rest based on the confidence with which they discussed the likelihood that the Fed would raise interest rates in June or July
* The confidence persists despite the drumbeat of consistently weaker than expected numbers
* Once in a while, we're getting better than expected numbers, but the beats are in the minority
* Sometimes we get a number that superficially appears better than the forecast, but as soon as you actually delve beneath a very thin surface, you see a lot of negative details that don't make the headlines
* People overlook a lot of information beneath the surface that is actually quite bad
* But before I get into the economic data, I want to talk a little about Janet Yellen
* On Friday she gave a monetary policy speech at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Studies at Harvard
* Yellen studied economics at prestigious institutions, herself
* Economics is Janet Yellen's passion; she's dedicated to economics
* For someone who has dedicated herself to one subject, it's amazing how little she actually knows, despite going to our nation's best universities
* It might be that the upper echelon universities are so deeply wedded to Keynesianism that a student might get a better economics education at a community college
* One of the things that Janet Yellen said during her speech was that she she believes in capitalism, but that the government needs to protect the economy because capital is prone to "breakdowns" that cause mass unemployment and that we need government, or central banks to save capitalism from itself
* Capitalism is not prone to breakdowns, nor is it prone to mass unemployment - in fact it's just the opposite
* Capitalism is stable; it has a cyclical nature much less pronounced absent the Fed
* Huge breakdowns and mass unemployment are always the result of government interferencePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/1/2016 • 24 minutes, 43 seconds
Stock Market Bulls Charge Again On “Rate Hikes Don’t Matter” – Ep. 170
* It really is amazing how short memories are on Wall Street
* This seems exactly like December when everybody was convinced that a rate hike wouldn't matter because the economy was improving and the market can handle higher rates
* And the stock market rallied right up until the Fed actually raised rates, and then it rallied a little bit, and then it rolled over and we had the worst decline to begin a year in the history of the stock market
* Well flash forward to the Fed now saying that they are going to raise rates in June - or at least everybody believing that the Fed is going to raise rates in June and all of a sudden we are having this huge stock market
* We had a huge up day yesterday on the idea that the economy is improving and the Fed is going to raise rates
* The market is going up on the assumption that the economy can handle higher rates based on the economic data, which is another reason why the Fed might feel comfortable raising rates because the market is not selling off
* So the market is giving the Fed the go-ahead to notch rates up another .25
* That was exactly the attitude prior to the last rate hike
* The Fed make the mistake of raising rates in spite of weak data
* As a matter of fact, if you go back to the minutes of the FOMC meeting, which is what ignited this whole Fed rate hike narrative, the Fed said it all depends on the data
* If the economy continues to improve, if the labor market continues to improve, then we'll hike rates
* But the reality is that the data tells the opposite story
* Ever since the last Fed meeting, the economic data, on balance, has been weaker than expected - not stronger than expected
* Including all the data that has come out this week
* But, hey - nobody cares - because the Fed says everything is great, so we can ignore the data because if they think the economy is great, it must be great
* Forget about the fact that they have a horrible track record - the economy must be great!
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/25/2016 • 28 minutes, 19 seconds
Fed Cries Wolf, Traders Come Running – Ep. 169
* I wanted to record a short podcast today just to discuss the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes that were released at 2:00pm this afternoon ET, which reflect the views of the Fed when they had their April meeting, some 6 weeks ago, when the Fed decided not to raise rates
* As a result of the release of these minutes, everybody has now jumped to the conclusion that a June rate hike is not only on the table, but basically a done deal
* I heard people talking about it on CNBC, "The Fed had to do this to show they are on a path to normalization - they said they would have a gradual pace, so they had no excuse but to do this."
* Do what? They haven't actually raised rates, they've just talked about it
* Let me read you the statement they made about rates:
Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.
* They didn't say they would do it, they said it would LIKELY be appropriate
* Likely doesn't mean definitely, and appropriate doesn't mean they're going to do it
* Because even if they determine that it is appropriate it doesn't mean they will do it
* Before you even get to the likely and appropriate part of the statement, 2 things have to happen, or 3 things if you want to count inflation, but inflation has already happened
* The economy has to pick up in Q2 - It doesn't look likely that that's going to happen - it is possible that we could get a second quarter stronger than the horrible Q1 but is 1 - 1.5% economic growth in Q2 picking up? It will still average out to a weak first half of the year
* But the Fed also wants to see that labor conditions continue to strengthenPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
* Another volatile day in the stock market sees the major averages deep in the red
* The Dow was down just over 1%; down 180 points, 17,529
* The NASDAQ actually got walloped a little more; down just shy of 60 points, 1.25%
* I think the catalyst for today's declines was a couple of Fed officials talking about how June is a live meeting - live from the perspective of, "We might raise interest rates"
* I don't think it's live at all, I think it's dead, and if it were alive, the stock market decline would kill it
* If Wall Street actually believes that the Fed is serious about raising rates in June, the market would be tanking
* In fact, if more people believed it, the market would be down more than 180 points today
* As we got closer and closer to the date that the Fed was theoretically going to raise rates, the market would be so low, that any talk of a rate hike would be dead, because the Fed would be dealing with tighter financial conditions
* The Fed doesn't want to tighten monetary policy with financial conditions are tightening on their own
* It's interesting, too, that you hear people asking, "Why does the Fed have a June rate hike on the table"? I keep hearing about the economy strengthening
* The economy is not strengthening! That's just the point, the economy is weakening
* Yes we did get a little data in the last few days that was better than expected, buy we also got data that was worse than expected
* Most of the financial data that has come out since the last time the Fed hiked rates has been bad
* If the Fed is talking about raising rates, it's not because the economy is getting stronger, it is despite the fact that the economy is getting weaker
* What is getting stronger is inflation
* The problem is, even though inflation is above the Fed's so-called 2% target, I don't think this raises the probability of a rate hike
* If anything, the increase in prices will slow down the economy even more
* We actually got some official inflation data today, we got the April CPI
* The consensus was for a move +.3, following the prior month's +.1
* We got a bigger jump than was expected - we got +.4
* The year-over-year headline number - not the core number - is now 1.1
* So the year-over-year is below 2% but if you annualize that .4 for the next 11 months that would be a 6% annualized rate of CPI-based inflation
* I read articles about the jump in the CPI and the jist was that this is good news, because the Fed is making progress on its policy goal of price stability -
* If you think about how ridiculous that comment is:
* We had a big spike in consumer prices, which if you annualize the rate of increase that's 6% increase in prices and that's progress on price stability?
* If anything, the Fed is moving away from price stability
* If you're going for price stability, the less prices go up the more stable it is
* I don't know how much more "stability" people can stand -
* If prices get any more "stable" than this, we're going to have runaway inflation
* This is not about price stability - this is about generating inflation on purpose because there is no alternative for the Fed
* In recent times, a hotter than expected inflation number, causes the currency goes up
* And when inflation is lower than expected, the currency goes down
* Now, you might think that's counter-intuitive, and actually it is
* Why would higher inflation be good for a currency? After all, inflation measures how quickly a currency loses purchasing power
* So why would a currency that is losing purchasing power more quickly be more valuable?
* In today's world, low inflation is bad for your currency and high inflation is good for your currency
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/17/2016 • 29 minutes, 32 seconds
How Much More Bad News Can The Markets Withstand? – Ep. 167
* The markets continue, really, to ignore all of the overwhelming bad news
* Bad news on the economy, bad news on the corporate earnings front, retail sales - you name it, the news is bad
* But the markets seem to shrug it off
* All the markets - the equity markets, the foreign exchange markets, bond markets, the gold and silver markets
* Sure, there is usually a knee-jerk reaction - you get some bad news, the gold spikes up, the dollar dumps, but then it recovers what it lost and gold surrenders its gains and we continue to stay the course, because to me the bad news isn't sinking in
* Yes, the stock market has been trending down, particularly the NASDAQ
* But it really hasn't rolled over
* Yes we had the big drop yesterday, the Dow was down about 200 points, but it was up 200 points the day before
* So over two days, we didn't go anywhere, despite the fact that we continue to get bad news
* I'll start with some of the bad news that came out today and then work back
* I think the worse news of the day was the weekly unemployment claims which is now finally started to move higherPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/13/2016 • 26 minutes, 53 seconds
Politics Trumps Truth – Ep. 166
* Today I really want to talk more about Donald Trump, in particular, the firestorm that I think I lit with respect to Trump comments with respect to defaulting on the National Debt
* Now I really believe that I am the first guy to have picked up on that because, when he originally talked about that on CNBC, and Becky Quick said, "Wait a minute, are you talking about compromising our credit rating?"
* That's when Donald Trump said, "No, no, no, I'm not talking about defaulting I'm talking about refinancing and Becky Quick let it go, she accepted the explanation, and nobody else on CNBC at the time said anything
* Later that day, I was contacted by CNBC - I had already agreed to do Futures Now on CNBC.com in reaction to the article I had written at the end of last week on Donald Trump and I said, "Hey, wait a minute, why don't we also talk about his comments today about defaulting on the debt
* And the producer said, "What are you talking about?"
* I described his comments and said, go get the clip and we'll talk about it on the program
* She had no idea that Trump had said anything like that and nobody was talking about it, but I had tweeted about it in real time as soon as I heard Trump say that, as he was still in the studio talking
* I heard nothing about it until after my CNBC interview took place and then there were articles about it - even the New York Times wrote a big article about it
* In fact, so much was written about it that Donald Trump had to officially respond to the idea that he said he wanted to default on the debt
* Which of course he never actually did - he never actually said it, but it's clear to me that that is exactly what he meant - he wasn't just implying it, that's what he was thinking
* But Donald Trump is not a career politician, so he's not always thinking about the political ramifications of just speaking off the cuff, and talking honestly, which is what he was doing
* All of a sudden, when he put his presidential candidate hat back on, when Becky Quick called him out and all of a sudden he had to process what he let slip, then he back tracked
* I think he would have died right there, had it not been for me
* Of course Donald Trump doesn't want to be the candidate advocating default
* Even though we can't possibly repay this debt, I guess there are some truths that even Donald Trump is afraid to utter when you're running for President, so he immediately started to back track
* But I wanted to talk about why his explanation makes no sense at all and it shows that I was 100% right about what he was thinking, and all he's doing now is spin, he doesn't want to deal with the genie that he just let out of the bottle
* I think the press, in general will probably accept his explanation, because they don't really know very much, but let's go into it
* First of all, he said, "Of course we're not going to default on the debt - why would we default? We print the money!
* Now, when he was talking about the debt, he wasn't talking about printing money, not at all
* In fact, if anything, he acknowledged that printing money would be a problem, because he said, "We have to keep interest rates low but if inflation picks up we have a real problem
* Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/10/2016 • 26 minutes, 24 seconds
Ep. 165: Markets In Denial About Jobs As Trump Lets Truth Slip About Debt
* Today we got the government's Non-Farm Payroll report, otherwise known as the Jobs Report, for the month of April and pretty much all the mainstream Wall Street guys were looking for another strong report
* In fact, earlier in the week Goldman Sachs was out saying that the 200,000 consensus estimate was too low!
* The optimism was unfazed by the much weaker than expected ADP report I spoke about on my last podcast on Wednesday, which came in much lighter than expected
* So, people didn't care, they said, "That's a one-off event, we're still looking for a good number, and we got a weak report
* Instead of 200,000 jobs we only got 160,000 jobs
* And they actually revised down the last couple of months
* But let's get into some of the details, because it gets worse, the further beneath the surface you look
* The unemployment rate held steady at 5%; they were expecting it to notch down to 4.9% - that did not happen
* Private payrolls also much lighter than expected; they were looking for 195,000; they got 171,000 and they revised down last month's from 195K to 184K
* They did get the .3% increase in average hourly earnings, but they forgot to point out that they revised month's .3% increase down to .2% so you can chalk that one up as a miss, despite the fact that nobody was talking about it
* The bigger miss was in the Labor Force Participation Rate
* Last month it was 63%, which was a move up, but in April it came back down to 62.8%
* 562,000 people left the labor force during the month of April
* A massive exodus led by young people
* A breakdown in the Household Survey for ages 20-24 reported 155,000 job losses in April
* For ages 25 - 54 - 284,000 jobs losses
* For ages over the age of 55 - this is the highest it has ever been
* Janet Yellen still wants to pretend that the reason the Labor Force Participation Rate is declining is because the Baby Boom is retiring - how much longer is she going to get away with that lie?
* The Baby Boom is too broke to retire
* The people leaving the workforce are young people in their 20's and 30's
* A breakdown of job gains by sector shows the biggest sector is professional business and temporary services - 56,000 gains
* Healthcare and education was high, and leisure and hospitality came in third
* Manufacturing barely gained any jobs after a huge loss the prior month
* Wholesale trade barely gained any
* Construction, after a big jump last month - only 1,000 jobs
* Retail trade lost 3,000 jobs
* Mining and logging continues to lose jobs
* On a good note, government actually lost jobs
* That's a good thing - we don't need so many people working for government - they're not productive
* Rick Santelli made a very good point today on CNBC, talking about all the jobs created at the TSA
* We're not better off with those jobs - they decrease our productivity
* As I mentioned on my last podcast, we've now had 2 consecutive quarters of losses in productivity
* Despite this bad jobs report, the market shrugged it off
* The stock market rallied because bad news is good news - the odds of a Fed rate hike are now the lowest they've ever been
* If you look at the Foreign Exchange markets, the dollar was broadly higher today
* It was up big against the Australian dollar because the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered their inflation forecast
* They lowered it from 2-3% to 1-2%
* You would think that's good news, because it means the cost of living will rise only 1-2%
* Back in the day, news of low inflation sent a currency higher, because it was not losing purchasing power
* The news sent the Australian dollar tumbling because the market now expects the Australian Reserve will have to c...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/7/2016 • 31 minutes, 45 seconds
It’s Government Not Technology That Lowers Living Standards – Ep.164
* And then there was one; Donald Trump is now the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee for 2016
* I remember when this Republican Primary started and the field was very wide
* They had to split the debates up between the main event and the under card because there were so many candidates
* Nobody in the mainstream really gave Donald Trump a shot
* Even though I wasn't supporting, Trump - I was supporting Rand Paul and more recently Ted Cruz as the candidates who were ideologically closest to me
* I always thought that Donald Trump was a very serious candidate and thought that he had the best odds of winning and that's what happened
* I always recognized the appeal of his message
* I know the economy is much worse than is generally perceived and, for the typical American, living in a rotten economy, Trump seems to be the candidate that is going to appeal to them
* He's not talking about cutting social security or taking away government benefits, he's trying to be all things to all people
* It's a populist message - Everybody's going to win, just elect me and I'm going to make all your problems go away
* How am I going to make them go away? Because I'm different
* I'm not your typical politician, I'm a billionaire businessman who knows what I'm doing and everybody in government are incompetent fools
* He's right about that part - everybody in government is incompetent
* But that does not mean that Trump is a panacea to immediately make these problems go away
* But you know what? Why not take a shot at it?
* I knew that his message is powerful and would resonate
* Everybody is writing him off, saying he will lose to Hillary Clinton
* I don't believe so
* I think the media is still underestimating Donald Trump, despite the fact that they completely surprised them by winning the Republican nomination
* He might surprise them again by winning the General Election and being our next President
* Because, if you are anti-establishment, why would you vote for Hillary Clinton, even if you are a Democrat
* Why do you think Bernie Sanders continues to get so much support?
* He beat Hillary again in Indiana yesterday
* But of course Hillary has such a massive lead, thanks to all these super delegates, it doesn't even matter how many primaries he wins - he can win all the primaries from now until the election and Hillary is still going to be the nominee
* Unless Bernie Sanders can flip the super delegates
* Maybe if she gets indicted between now and the convention, well maybe that will do the trick
* But Hillary Clinton couldn't win in Indiana because there weren't enough minorities there
* When you just look your basic Democratic American, they're overwhelmingly going for Bernie Sanders
* The reason they're doing that is for the same reason that Republicans are going for Donald Trump
* I said many times I think Donald Trump will be able to tailor his message specifically to appeal to the Bernie Sanders Democrats
* He's not going to get all of the Bernie Sanders Democrats - the far left Socialists
* But there are a lot of people who are voting for Bernie Sanders because they can't stand Hillary Clinton
* Trump has a good shot at getting those people, in fact I think Donald Trump can do better with the Democrats than Ronald Regan
* And it was those Regan Democrats that really put Ronald Regan in the White House
* Many people are too young to remember, but when Ronald Regan first got the nomination, the media said, well that's it, he's going to lose in a landslide
* Nobody thought he could beat Jimmy Carter, an incumbent President and Ronald Regan was so far to the right, he was even more to the right than Barry Goldwater,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/5/2016 • 32 minutes, 51 seconds
Dollar Dives, Gold Thrives, Puerto Rico Defaults – Ep. 163
* Gold finally traded about $1300 this morning; it was the first time since January of 2015 that the price of gold traded above $1300
* But by the time the U.S. Stock market opened, the price of gold started to sell off, and it couldn't hold $1300, in fact, it ended negative on the day - we closed about $1291
* When gold failed to hold $1300, there was a lot of selling in gold stocks; in fact gold stocks were way up in the pre-market, up from 2-7%
* Some of them opened with new 52-week highs, but then the selling commenced and gold stocks went down, silver stocks went down - GDX ended down about 1.7% on the day - not a very big move
* There will be some people out there who will say, "It's a reversal"
* We didn't hold $1200 either, the first time we got above it, but the next time we went to $1200, we got to $1260
* I think something similar might happen with $1300
* If I were a bear, I would cover, I'd be buying back
* I think it would be smart to buy the dip
* Especially when you look at the weakness in the U.S. dollar with continued today, in fact the dollar index traded down to about 92.50
* This is the first time since January of 2015 that the dollar index has been below 93
* The euro is above 115, that, too, is the first time since January of 2015
* But the dollar is weak across the board, and it's going to continue to get weak especially if we keep getting the weak data points like the data that came out todayPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/3/2016 • 31 minutes, 2 seconds
Gold and Currency Markets Expose U.S. Recovery Myth – SchiffReport
* Friday April 29, 2016 was the final trading day for the month of April and I think this will turn out to be a pivotal month for the month of April and I will talk more about that later in this report
* I wanted start by talking about the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday not to raise interest rates
* Few people really believed they would, but earlier in the year it was widely believed that by April the Fed would have raised interest rates at least one more time, given the fact that they began the tightening cycle in December with the first .25 rate hike
* What's more important than the failure to raise rates again was what they wrote in their statement with respect to the idea that future rate hikes are forthcoming
* The Fed is still clinging to the false narrative that this recovery that is basically already ended is on track, and that they will be raising interest rates at some point later in the year maybe 2 or 3 more times; they just decided not to do it in April
* The only acknowledgement that the Fed made with respect to the economy was that growth was slowing
* That is a dramatic understatement to say that growth has slowed
* If you go back to December, when the Fed confidently announced their first rate hike, they were forecasting that the economy would grow by about 3% in the first quarter of 2016
* Yesterday we got the government's first estimate for Q1 growth rate and it came in at just .5%
* You can hardly refer to that as a slowdown, when pretty much all of the growth that the Federal Reserve believed was going to materialize evaporated
* I don't know how they can simply say growth is slowing - growth is non-existent
* As a matter of fact, the New York, Fed, which recently began issuing its own GDP Now Forecast, are now forecasting that Q2 will be just .8%
* Averaging the two quarters out, you barely have any economic growth
* I think the New York Fed is still overly optimistic
* I think the Q1 report of .5% will be negative after final revisions
* I also believe Q2 is going to be worse than Q1
* Even if Q1 .5% holds, that represents the third consecutive quarter where GDP has declined
* In fact 2015 Q4 was 1.4%, so .5% is less than half of the most recent quarter
* I think that trend is going to continue
* There are still a lot of people who believe we'll get a rebound in Q2, because we got a Q2 rebound in the prior 2 years.
* But the New York Fed is already throwing cold water on the idea that there is going to be a rebound
* What nobody is talking about is that the main reason for the Q2 rebound in the previous 2 years was because we had unseasonably cold winters
* We just had the warmest winter in 120 years, so we're not going to bounce back from anything
* In fact, I believe the winter was so warm, that we probably pulled forward some of the economic activity that might otherwise have happened in Q2, so I think Q2 is going to suffer
* Additionally, we had big builds in inventories in the prior 2 second quarters - that's not going to happen this quarter
* Our trade deficits are even bigger now than they used to be
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/30/2016 • 31 minutes
It’s Crunch Time For The Fed As Stagflation Looms – Ep. 162
* Earlier today the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, (FOMC) began their 2-day meeting
* It concludes tomorrow and at 2:00 they will announce their decision on interest rates
* Nobody is anxiously awaiting that announcement
* Although there were plenty of fools a few months ago who actually believed the Federal Reserve would be raising interest rates, in fact they thought they were going to raise them in March and then, when they didn't there were a lot of people who still thought they might do it in April
* But some of these fools still believe the Fed is going to hike rates later in the year - maybe June
* Maybe June, September and December
* There are still people, like Goldman Sachs, who are looking for 3 rate hikes this year
* I was on a panel months ago with Jim Rickards, whom I have a lot of respect for, and back then he argued with me, because he believed the Fed would raise rates 2 if not 3 times in 2016
* I said the Fed would not raise rates at all
* Today I posted an interview that he gave on Bloomberg - now Jim Rickards says Janet Yellen has gone super-dove and she is not going to raise rates
* The reason Jim Rickards disagreed with me on the panel a couple of months ago is that, although he agrees with my thoughts on the economy, is that he thought the Fed would not recognize that the economy is very weak, rather that it believes the economy is still recovering
* He thought the Fed would raise rates anyway, which would cause a recession, cause the Fed to abort the increases, go back to zero and to QE4
* I said, I think we are going to skip all the rate hikes and go directly to rate cuts and QE4
* And now I think Jim has joined me in that perspective
* The question is: Will the Federal Reserve actually admit that the economy is that weak, or just not raise rates, which is tantamount to an admission of weakness
* We are going to get the first official look at Q1 GDP on Thursday
* There's a good chance that we will print a negative number
* And even if we don't print a negative number, it will be a single digit number less than 1
* And by the time they revise it the following month to incorporate all the bad news that comes after Thursday, I think they will revise it negative
* Which means we're in a recession
* If Q1 is negative, and I don't believe we will get a bounce-back in Q2
* I think Q1 is the high water mark and it's down hill from here
* I think Q2 will be weaker regardless of how weak Q1 is, because we borrowed growth from Q2 because we had the warmest winter in 120 years
* Companies are now winding down their bloated inventories that they built up the last couple of years
* And because the trade deficits are getting bigger and not smaller
* So we have a lot weighing down GDP in Q2 in an already weak economy
* By the way, the Atlanta Fed revised up their Q1 GDP number from .3 to .4
* Why did they do that? This is the second time the Atlanta Fed has upwardly revised their estimate, despite the fact that the economic data has gotten worse since their last estimate
* If the data gets worse, why would you revise your forecast up?
* To me something's going on, maybe it's the boys at the New York Fed putting pressure on Atlanta to be more optimistic, but we'll see, because we will get the first official numbers on Thursday
* Let me go over some of the economic data that has come out just since my last podcast
* On Friday last week, we got the PMI Flash Index for April - not a Q1 number
* One of the first numbers for Q2 and it ain't pretty - the consensus was for an improvement
* March was 51.4, and 52 was expected - we got 50.8 - much weaker than the Atlanta Fed thought
* New Home Sales missed; they were looking for 522,000,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/26/2016 • 30 minutes, 52 seconds
Let’s Go Crazy – Episode 161
* I recorded my last podcast on the afternoon of April 19, and I wanted to announce that later that evening, my first daughter was born - we named her Lilyan Ruth after both of our maternal grandmothers - so we now have Lilyan Ruth Schiff, she was 7 lbs 2 oz. of pure cuteness!
* If you just looked at the close of the gold and silver market, you wouldn't know that much went on, gold closed up under $5 - silver was up about .04, but you wouldn't know that earlier in the morning gold was up better than $25, we did trade back above $1270
* Silver made a new high for the year - silver was up about 75¢ early in the morning, in fact I think it made its peak during the Draghi press conference
* We were above $1760 and then, just around 9am or so, there was a huge seller in the gold and the silver market and the whole complex went negative and we managed to close slightly positive on the day, but we had a huge sell-off intra-day following a big rally
* That doesn't mean the top is in - I think it's interesting; we just got a huge correction out of the way and the price went up - we flushed out a big seller and now that seller is out of the market and this market is still going a lot higher
* I put an article on my Facebook page about how gold stocks are way up this year, and they are way up this year, but the article basically said, "Don't buy", because gold is going to sell off.
* I'm seeing a log of mainstream articles now about why you should not jump on this bandwagon, how dangerous the gold market is
* And all this is just music to my ears. If you are bullish on gold, this is exactly what you want. You want everybody to be skeptical.
* You want this wall of worry, that gold and silver are going to climb, and we're going to climb with it while everybody else is worried about the crash, because they still don't get it.
* They're still talking about how the Fed is going to raise rates, and how that's bad for gold
* It's not bad for gold - it all depends on how the Fed raises rates
* If the Fed raises rates Paul Volker style, really jacks them up there, yeah, that will be bad for gold
* But they're not going to do that. If they raise rates, slowly, which is the only way they can do that if they even raise them, they will be slower than Greenspan was
* When Greenspan raised rates, that was great for gold, because he was very slow
* Well, Yellen is going to be even slower
* So if gold did well under Greenspan, it will do even better under Yellen hikes, if we even get hikes
* If we even get hikes. We could get cuts, QE4, negative rates
* If the Fed raises rates a little bit, that's bullish for gold; if they don't raise rates at all, even more bullish for gold, or they cut rates, and gold goes ballistic
* Either way, gold stocks are going up
* Meanwhile Wall Street is looking at amazement at the rally and it wouldn't dawn on them to participate
* The mainstream investment world is not on board. The train has left - there's nobody on it
* Eventually they're going to buy, just like they piled in to the gold trade when it was 17-18-1900, that's when the big firms started finally noticing it
* Eventually they are going to realize... I think it is going to take Yellen admitting the economy is weak, of the Fed actually cutting rates, but by then the prices are going to be much higher than they are now and we keep getting bad economic news
* But I want to talk first about the Draghi press conference
* Mario Draghi of the ECB, leaving interest rates unchanged, and continuing their QE program
* The euro initially rallied, even during the Q&A, but then at the end, the euro turned around with the gold market, and the euro ended up unchanged
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/21/2016 • 28 minutes, 2 seconds
Silver Shines as Goldman Sachs Dims – Ep. 160
* Hi-Ho Silver! Seems to be the rallying cry for the day
* The last podcast I recorded I talked about the breakout in silver and I actually regretted the fact that I didn't get a chance to talk about silver during my CNBC interview
* On my last podcast I mentioned how strong silver had been looking and it held up extremely well in the gold selloff during the prior few days
* Sure enough, we had a big breakout again today
* Silver was above $17 earlier today, the first time it has been that high all year
* Gold is still well below the highs, it needs to rally about $30 to get back to its high for this move
* I mentioned on the last podcast that I though the strength in silver was a good leading indicator for both gold and silver
* And I talked about all the traders who have been shorting silver, that had been a popular trade when the gold and silver ratio was breaking down, I thought that it made no sense to short silver
* To me it was a much better trade to buy silver when it's as cheap as it's ever been relative to gold
* This is good constructive action, in fact, the gold stocks are at new highs for the year
* The GDX, as I speak, is up 4% on the day; it's above $23 - this is the high for the year
* The juniors, GDXJ, that index is up over 6% - today! This is a new 52-week high
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/19/2016 • 21 minutes, 6 seconds
Does The Silver Market See What The Atlanta Fed Missed? – Ep. 159
* This is another week of bad economic data that most people have ignored
* The stock market was up this week; the Dow closed up 1.8% on the year
* I don't know if the Dow was rising in spite the bad news or because of it
* The bad news means the economy is weak and corporate earnings are not there, and there are high multiples
* But of course, if the economy is weak, that takes the Fed out of the rate hiking game and I think puts it into the rate cutting - QE4 game
* So the market is caught between the opposing forces of cheap money and falling earnings on the back of a weak economy
* Gold was actually down on the week; it started off the week strong, then Thursday it got hit pretty good and today it recouped some of its losses
* But the standout was silver
* Silver was up almost 6% on the week; this is a new high
* Silver closed at the highest close of the year
* In fact, silver was strong with gold on Monday and Tuesday and when gold sold off on Wednesday and Thursday, silver really held up
* That's a good sign for both gold and silver
* I was on CNBC.com this week and I meant to say something about silver
* They're not even talking about silver in the mainstream media so they're missing an even bigger move
* They're acknowledging that gold's going up but they're not even looking at silver
* I mentioned on an earlier podcast that a number of people are shorting silver and buying gold because they saw the breakout to new highs on the gold/silver ratio and they wanted to jump on that trad
* I thought that was the wrong thing to do
* To me, seeing new highs in that ratio in favor of silver made me want to buy silver, since it's as cheap as it's been relative to gold
* If you like gold, just buy it; don't short silver because you could turn a winning trade into a losing trade
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/15/2016 • 28 minutes, 3 seconds
Obama and Yellen Recovery Narrative Unraveling Fast – Ep. 158
* The dollar index traded below 94 for a good part of the day, but it did manage to close up at 94 even, down just .20
* Gold was up another $19
* Silver really shined brightly today, up .54, just below $16/oz.
* Mining stocks, of course, were on fire; GDX was up just under 6% on the day, GDXJ up just under 7%
* This followed a spectacular day for the mining stocks on Friday
* In fact, even though gold itself was down a couple of bucks, we had a huge up day in the gold stocks
* Between Friday and today, I think this is the biggest two back-to-back gains for gold stocks all year
* The catalyst was the Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP estimate downgrade all the way down to .1
* If you remember, from listening to my podcasts, the very first time the Atlanta Fed came out with its upward revision, with a lot of fanfare, to 2.7%, I said that that was all political and that they would have to walk that back all quarter long, and now they have eliminated the entire estimated gain
* A fair estimate might have been -.1, but President Obama is still saying we have the strongest advanced economy in the world
* I don't know what his definition of "strong" or "advanced" is, but we might have one of the weakest of the advanced economies
* It's just that nobody wants to accept that fact yet
* Here's where it really gets interesting: CNBC was very dismissive of the weak economic numbers
* They are characterizing the weak Q1 as similar to previous years' weak Q1, where the weather pushed back some economic activity to Q2, causing rebounds
* They said the same thing is going to happen this year. No it's not.
* This year is different from last year
* First, let's talk about inventories: February and January Wholesale Trade Inventories have been revised down from +.3 to -.2
* Last year, companies were still building up inventories, believing in the recovery narrative, boosting GDP
* The inventory unwind that I have been talking about for the last year is just beginning
* It started in Q1 of this year, and this inventory sell-down is going to subtract from GDP
* Here's another factor: the weather
* The weather for the last two first quarters was very cold, pushing economic activity to Q2, helping Q2 to rebound
* That's not what happened this year. The first quarter of this year was the warmest in over 120 years
* So obviously there was no economic activity pushed forward due to weather, if anything, the weather might have pulled some activity from Q2 to Q1
* As weak as Q1 was, it might have been weaker if cold weather had suspended some economic activity
* The third difference is the trade deficit, which is rapidly growing this year
* I think the growing trade deficit will continue to put a drag on Q2 GDP
* The inventory liquidation will continue to be a drag on Q2 GDP
* What that means is had the government properly seasonally adjusted Q1 for the unusually warm weather, I think Q1 GDP would be a lot lower
* Q1 will be a contraction, and we are going to fall from there
* If that is true, then we are in a recession
* I think this recession will be longer in duration that the preceding one
* The question is: What is the government going to do about it?
* There was a meeting today between President Obama, Joe Biden and Janet Yellen
* They have to figure out how to throw the economy a lifeline without admitting that it is drowning
* The first thing the Fed can do is signal that they are not going to raise rates - change their forward guidance
* By just not raising the rates, the specter of a hike remains
* The question is what story will they use in order to not damage Obama's recovery narrative and Hillary Clinton's campaign?
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/11/2016 • 24 minutes, 22 seconds
Trump’s Very Massive Recession May Have Already Begun – Ep. 157
* Today is the Wisconsin Primary but Donald Trump has been getting a lot of flack in the media over the last couple of days about his comments about the U.S. economy, particularly in the financial media because Donald Trump has now predicted a "very massive recession" in the U.S.
* He didn't just say a recession, he's predicting a massive recession
* Most of the pundits on television don't see any recession at all - not even a mild one
* So here you have Donald Trump saying, not only is the recession going to be massive, it's going to be very massive
* The media is all over Trump: "What is he talking about? The economy is in great shape! He's peddling all kinds of fiction! We have this massive economic growth!"
* the President television today taking credit for this great economy with all these years of jobs
* Of course what the President doesn't admit to, is, it's not job creation - it's job destruction
* We're destroying full time jobs, the by-product of that destruction is that we create a bunch of part-time jobs that people don't really want but that's all they can get
* Yet the President is taking credit for that
* It's like setting a fire and taking credit for putting it out
* That's what the Federal Reserve did with the 2008 Financial Crisis
* Let's look at some of the economic news that came out over the past couple of days that resulted in the Atlanta Fed reducing its Q1 GDP estimate - yet again - to .4
* In last Friday's podcast I said that I thought they would be revising it down, and based on the numbers that just came out, they did
* One if the reasons the Atlanta Fed cited for the revision was yesterday's release of February Factory Orders
* They were expected to be down 1.6; instead it came out as -1.7, which was not that big a miss unless you consider the previous downward revision, which means it dropped from a lower level
* That took something out of the GDP numbers as did the very bad auto sales that I did mention in Friday's podcast
* Apparently the worse-than-expected trade deficit that came out today didn't even factor into their thinking, and I don't know why, because we were expecting $46.2 billion and instead we got $47.1 billion
* That's a pretty big miss, and they took January's estimate which was originally $45.7 billion and raised that to $46.2 billion
* We are still expecting the March number which will be factored into Q1 GDP, so I think the Atlanta Fed is still not low enough
* Remember, too, one of the things that's helping the Q1 GDP is that most of the country had an unseasonably warm winter, because bad weather is factored into the estimate
* Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/5/2016 • 32 minutes, 55 seconds
Jobs Report Merely An April Fool’s Joke – Ep. 156
* Well, it's April Fool's Day today and there certainly were a lot of fools out on Wall Street buying all the nonsense about the better than expected Non-Farm Payroll numbers
* Many of those fools were also fooled into thinking that these supposedly good jobs numbers puts a June rate hike back on the table
* In fact, these April Fools were out in force in March when several Fed officials were talking about the possibility of April being a live meeting, and they bought it; Janet Yellen potentially set them straight a few days ago, but then again they hear some numbers that they think are better than expected, and they think, "Aha! The Fed is about to raise rates."
* When are they going to wake up and realize that none of these numbers matter - it doesn't matter what they are, better than expected, worse than expected, the Fed can't raise rates
* If the Fed could raise rates, they would have already done it.
* Yes, they did raise rates in December, they didn't want to raise rates, they did it anyway, and look what happened
* Maybe you can think of that rate hike as a trial balloon, but it was the Hindenburg of trial balloons, it blew up, and there's no way the Fed wants to launch another one
* The first quarter came to an end yesterday and the U.S. stock market actually managed to gain
* It was up about 1%, but the year started off as the worse year in the history of the stock market
* Back in February, U.S. stocks had the weakest beginning of the year in the history of the stock market - going all the way through the great depression
* That happened because the Fed raised rates
* Do you think they want to take that chance again?
* Why did the market recover? Because people then believed that the Fed was not going to be raising rates, in fact, the weakness in the market is one of the reasons they believe that
* So the market going down helped the Fed to change its tune, enabling the market to go back up
* Now they're not going to take another chance to have to save it again
* Next time it goes down, it keeps on falling
* Beneath the surface, there was a lot of carnage in the market - there were a lot of stocks that got taken out and shot
* Some big hedge funds had horrible results in the first quarter
* Hedge funds were on the wrong side of so many macro trades this quarter
* For example, the U.S. dollar had its worse quarter in over 5 years
* You remember, that was one of the most crowded trades out there at the end of last year
* Everybody with a hedge fund was long the dollar and short the euro, short the yen, short the aussie, short the Canadian, you name it they were short
* Some of these guys were short the Chinese yuan - the yuan had a pretty good quarter - the strongest quarter in 2 years
* Everybody who was long the dollar and short another currency got killed in the first quarter
* The only people who lost more money than the ones shorting were the people shorting goldPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/1/2016 • 24 minutes, 4 seconds
When Doves Talk, Gold Listens – Ep. 155
* All the talk last week in the financial media was the fact that several Federal Reserve officials had given speeches somehow putting April back on the table as a live FOMC meeting, where the Fed might raise rates
* In fact, even earlier this week, even yesterday, an official from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco commented that the Fed should continue with rate hikes because the economy is strong and the data is on target
* I did not buy those comments for one second - my last podcast was titled, "Fed Bankers Bark But Won't Bite", and my commentary was titled, "Two Down and Two to Go" meaning that the Fed had already dispensed with two of the 4 rate hikes telegraphed for 2016 and they would take the other 2 rate hikes away
* So, as everybody else was anticipating rate hikes, I was saying, not only are they not going to raise them in April, they are not going to raise them at all in 2016
* What happened today? Janet Yellen gave a speech to the Economic Club of New York, one of the most dovish speeches, if not the most dovish she has ever given
* As a result of the speech, the price of gold was up about $20 on the day; we closed above $1240
* In fact a couple of days ago, we had gotten nearly down to $1200
* That shows you the strength of this bull market in gold, despite the talk of a rate hike in April, and despite the rally in the dollar, gold held its position above $1200
* To me, that's very bullish, the question when will all the bears throw in the towel?
* Goldman Sachs is still looking for gold to hit $1000 - $900
* They're still looking for a strong dollar and a bunch of rate hikes
* Although Goldman Sachs is not as bearish on gold as Harry Dent
* Harry Dent called for $700 gold when I debated him on Friday's Alex Jones show
* That was a good debate, and you can check it out on my YouTube channel
* The dollar was down across the board today
* The dollar index barely held on to the 95 handle, it closed at 95.15, off not quite a full percentage point on the day
* Aussie dollar very strong on the day, up 1.4%
* New Zealand dollar was the big winner on the day; that currency was up a full 2 percentage points on the day against the U.S. dollar
* The Dow Jones liked the dovish news coming from the Fed; up just under 100 points
* One of the reasons it wasn't up more is because of the financials in the Dow weighing it down
* The NASDAQ was up 79.8 - that's a 1.7% increase
* The NASDAQ was standing still compared to the gold stocks - the GDX up 5.77%
* The GDXJ, the juniors, were up even more - about 6.3% today
* That's where the action was and I think it will continue to be, based on Janet Yellen's Dovish remarks
* I still don't think the conventional wisdom appreciates the extent of these dovish remarks
* Let me go over her remarks; she started with a pretty upbeat assessment on the economy
* She said the labor market is looking good, consumer spending is looking good, the housing recovery continues - she went over all these positives
* She did list some minor negatives: Manufacturing and Net Exports, but she blamed all that on the strong dollar
* She did also mention that capital spending and business investment was lackluster, noting in particular weakness in layoffs in the energy sector
* But overall she was still upbeat on the economy
* In fact, she admitted that the Fed's assessment of economic growth, inflation, and unemployment were exactly the same on December 2015, when they raised rates, and in the March meeting,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/29/2016 • 41 minutes, 46 seconds
Fed Bankers Bark But Won’t Bite – Ep. 154
* The markets are closed on Good Friday, the markets are closed, but I did want to take time to record this podcast
* Some people were wondering why I didn't do a podcast on Wednesday, the day we had a big drop in the price of gold
* Believe me, I love doing podcasts, when the price of gold goes down, because I know a lot of people who are interested in gold want to know what my thoughts are on a day that it happens to go down
* As it turns out, I did have an interview on CNBC Fast Money, and my comments are available on that interview, posted on my YouTube channel
* Gold was down about $30 on that day and declined further yesterday
* Silver was down as well
* Gold is still holding above $1200 and gold is still positive on the year, not so for the U.S. Stock Market, which slipped back into negative territory this week
* Not only was gold weaker but the dollar was considerably stronger, and commodities in general, like crude oil, copper - also went down
* So what was the catalyst?
* You might say maybe it was because gold failed to rally on the news of the terrorist attack in Belgium
* News of this kind often triggers a knee-jerk reaction to buy gold, but the rally really wasn't that big, and when a market doesn't rally on good news, it generally means it is over bought, or it's ready to go down
* To me, however, that was a non-event, as far as gold is concerned
* I don't buy gold because of geopolitical instability - that has nothing to do with my strategy
* The real reason to buy gold has to do with inflation, and the central banks creating it, artificially low interest rates, negative interest rates and Quantitative Easing
* It has nothing to do with terrorism, except to the extent that terrorist attacks lead to more government spending that is not supported by taxes which means more money printing, more inflation and bigger deficits
* In the long run, it is good for gold, but in the short run, it is just a bunch of noise, but traders can certainly jump on these events as a reason to buy or sell and read things into a lack of movement, assuming there is a fundamental reason in the gold market, when there's not
* The more significant factors that hurt gold were comments by several Federal Reserve officials, to the extent that April is now considered a "live" meeting, meaning that they still might raise interest rates
* These comments are coming less than 2 weeks after the official March meeting, where the Fed could have raised interest rates, but didn't
* Not only did they not raise interest rates, they went out of their way to diminish the markets' expectations of future rate hikes
* So that after the March meeting, people who thought the Fed was going to raise rates 3 more times, revised expectations to at most 2, but a lot of people are starting to expect no interest rate hikes at all
* It was a very dovish press conference following the release of their statement
* So now, a week later some of the same guys on the FOMC saying, "We might raise rates in April"
* If you're thinking about raising rates in April, why were you so dovish last week?
* And if you are going to raise them in April, why not raise them in March
* None of this makes any sense, especially looking at the economic released since the Fed decided not to raise rates in March, and in general, it's been weaker expected
* So if the Fed is being given weaker than expected economic news, after they said they wouldn't raise rates, why would they now be raising the spectre of a rate hike coming up next month
* Is this some kind of trial balloon?
* I think the Fed is losing even more credibility when they're so schizophrenic: t...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/25/2016 • 28 minutes, 12 seconds
Government Encourages Student Debt While Discouraging Hiring – Ep. 153
* Before I get into the economic news of the past couple of days, the big event today was the terrorist attacks in Belgium and I want to offer my condolences to the people of Belgium and also on behalf of my listeners from the U.S. and all over the world
* This will probably work to the benefit of Donald Trump, who didn't waste much time in capitalizing on the event
* We do have a couple of primaries today, Arizona and Utah
* In Arizona, Trump is well in the lead - it's a winner take all state and today's news will probably solidify Trump's lead there
* The wild card will be the Utah primary where Donald Trump is in last place. Mitt Romney didn't endorse Cruz, but said a vote for Cruz is a vote against Trump. If Cruz gets less than 50% of the votes, however, the delegates would be divided proportionately.
* Not much action in the market - Gold spiked up on the news of the Brussels attacks, and closed up just under $5
* Silver was up earlier this morning, but there's a lot of support building in the silver market
* I had noticed that there were some traders shorting silver and buying gold
* When gold gets this expensive relative to silver, I wouldn't want to bet that that trend continues
* I would say, if you like gold, just buy gold, don's short silver, because you could turn a winning trade into a losing trade
* The big action in the currency markets was in the British Pound
* The Aussie and the Canadian dollar continue to rise against the U.S. dollar
* European currencies were a little bit weaker, but the main weakness was in the British pound
* One would think, wouldn't the euro be hurt more than the pound, by the terrorist attack?
* Traders believe that the attacks will increase the refugee problem, which is at the core of Great Britain's possible exit from the European Union, and the pound is falling on that speculation
* Most of the economic data that came out yesterday and today was weaker than expected
* They were expecting a bounce in the Chicago Fed National Activities Index and instead of a +.25, we got a -.29
* They did increase the positive number from +.28 to +.41, so the February decline is actually more dramatic
* Bigger miss that came out was in Existing Home Sales; it was a 7.1% drop
* That's the biggest drop in 6 years, and the 3rd consecutive month of declines
* The problem they're pointing to is high prices
* Imagine what would happen if the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates 2 more times
* If the Fed were to raise interest rates, what does that do to mortgage rates? They go up also
* When home sales are falling sharply because they're unaffordable even with record low mortgage rates, what happens to affordability when mortgage rates go up?
* How does the Fed increase interest rates when they are already not low enough to sustain the market, even at rock bottom?
* They're also pointing to lack of inventory as a culprit, but there are no buyers at these prices
* The only thing keeping these overpriced homes affordable is the artificially low interest rates, courtesy of the Fed, and the government, through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA
* Another problem is the lack of viable jobs in this economy
* Also this morning we got the PMI Manufacturing Index - expected to improve on last month's 51, dangerously close to the borderline between expansion and contraction
* We did improve but only to 49.5, a full one point below expectations
* The one outlier of the week, was the Richmond Manufacturing Index - last month, February, was -4 and the consensus expectation was 0 for this month
* We ended up getting +22 - this was the biggest beat ever and the highest number going back to 2012
* The number is so high it looks suspicious to me - i...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/23/2016 • 28 minutes, 53 seconds
Yellen’s Feet Were Always Cold – Ep. 152
* Happy St. Patrick's Day everybody and to those of you who have been waiting since yesterday for this podcast, you won't be disappointed
* Yesterday I did an interview with Liz Claman at Fox Business News and I did respond to the Fed's decision. That video is up on my YouTube Channel.
* The Fed did not raise interest rates, which didn't surprise a lot of people, but what did surprise a lot of people was the the Fed indicated, based on their Dot Plot, the consensus is that the Fed now sees two rate hikes coming in 2016
* If you recall, at the end of last year and earlier this year, the Fed was still projecting 4 rate hikes in 2016
* What I said from the very beginning is, "No chance."
* In fact I still thought it was more likely that we'd get a rate cut
* Now it's two down and two to go, because now the Fed is only pretending that they will raise rates twice this year instead of pretending that they're going to raise rates 4 times
* What's really interesting now is how the Fed is starting to lose credibility that it never should have had
* Steve Liesman asked Janet Yellen a good question: He said, what about your credibility - you said you would raise rates 4 times and now it's 2 times, and you said you were data dependent and unemployment is below 5%, creating 200,000+ jobs per year and the core CPI is up 2.3%
* He said, if you're not raising rates now, under what circumstances will you raise rates?
* Janet Yellen didn't really answer the question, but I thought she was thinking, "Don't you understand, we never intended to raise rates."
* I pointed this out from the beginning: The Federal Reserve never said that they would raise rates 4 times. They said, based on our economic forecasts, this is what we think is going to happen - BUT if we're wrong, it's not going to happen
* Janet Yellen said to Steve Liesman, "Look, these dots don't mean anything - this is what we're thinking at a moment in time, but it's not a promise."
* For some reason, everybody assumes that if the Fed thinks the economy is going to get better it will get better, in fact, if anything, since the Fed's track record is so horrific, if the Fed thinks the economy is going to get better, it's probably going to get worse, and so they are not going to raise interest rates the way they're pretending
* One of the reasons the Fed is pretending that the economy is good is because that's the official line of the Obama Administration: "The economy is good, and if you say it's not good, you're peddling fiction."
* Yellen probably wanted to say to Liesman,"Steve, we're not raising rates because the economy is lousy."
* The fact that they don't raise rates is the proof that they know that the economy is lousy, but they don't want to say it, so Janet Yellen is saying "Read between the lines"
* When I'm listening to all the coverage about the fact that the Fed didn't raise rates, the reports say,"Janet Yellen chickens out", "Janet Yellen gets cold feet"
* That's not the point. Her feet were always cold. The Fed never intended to raise rates.
* If they were planning to do it they would have done it
* This is all part of the extend and pretend charade
* In fact, in my Fox Business News interview with Liz Claman, I was debating Andy Brenner who holds that the Fed will raise rates 2 or 3 times this year
* I said, "If the Fed was going to raise rates, they should have raised them yesterday."
* Brenner responded that the market wasn't prepared for it
* I said the Fed is not supposed to be market dependent, it is supposed to be data dependent
* The market may never be prepared to raise rates - look at what happened the last time, the market got off to the worse start in the history of the market
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/17/2016 • 29 minutes, 51 seconds
Can Trump Make America Great Again? – Ep. 151
* We have some key primary elections coming up tomorrow and I want to take an opportunity to do a podcast on Donald Trump and the Trump phenomenon
* A lot of people are under the impression that I am endorsing Donald Trump because I have said some positive things about him and his campaign
* But I want to make it clear that I am not doing that
* I am not convinced that he is going to be a good President, although it's possible that he could
* I think there's no chance that Hillary Clinton would be a good President, that's clear
* Donald Trump is a wild card
* I do have a lot of problems with much of what Donald Trump says
* What is more telling is that he has so much support because he is tapping into a vein in the Republican Party, in fact, outside the Republican Party because he is getting Independents and Democrats to cross over and vote in Republican primaries because some people find his message so appealing
* The country is in much worse shape than the media or the Federal Reserve or Congress are leading people to believe
* Everybody keeps talking about the recovery, especially President Obama, but the people who are showing up for Trump at these rallies know there is no recovery
* In fact, the economy is in even worse shape than even Donald Trump recognizes, but at least he is talking about the enormity of the problems
* He's right - America isn't great. There are a lot of people who are in denial
* They say we don't have to make America great again, because it's still great
* No, it's not
* Based on any measure, the U.S. economy is far from its greatest
* Donald Trump recognizes that American has lost her greatness and he wants to restore it
* Voters want to make America great again and they believe Donald Trump can do it
* Donald Trump probably believes he can do it and that is part of the problem, because he can't make America great again
* Only free market capitalism can make America great again and I'm not sure Donald Trump understands this
* He believes America is in trouble because we're run by a bunch of idiots, by incompetent people who are in charge of the country - and he's right about that
* They are incompetent, but just changing the politicians, having more competent leaders is not going to make America great again
* If we have big government, it doesn't matter whether Donald Trump is in charge or the current crop of politicians
* There is no way to make big government work
* Smarter people at the helm won't steer this massive ship any straighter
* Donald Trump believes that because he's successful in business and he's built a high net worth that he can run the U.S. government and make it profitable for American citizens
* He thinks he can get in there and get rid of the waste, fraud and abuse and we're going to negotiate better trade deals and this is going to bring our jobs back, and America will be great again
* None of that is true
* We don't need better negotiators. We don't need trade deals. We just need free trade
* The problem with trade deals is that they're not free - they're managed
* There are all sorts of nonsense in these agreements
* The fact that the U.S. has these huge trade deficits, and the fact that we're losing all our high-paying manufacturing jobs is not because we got outsmarted by the Chinese in negotiations
* Our trade deficits are a symptom of the problem - they are not the cause of the problem
* The reason we have deficits with everybody is not because we have bad trade deals
* It is because we have too much government
* Even if Donald Trump is the leader of that government, he's not going to make it work any better
* What he needs to do is to talk about how he is going to dismantle governme...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
* Mario Draghi at the ECB fired his big bazooka today; people had anticipated that that would be the case
* In fact, it seems like he fired a bigger blast than people were expecting, he announced that he would reduce negative interest rates further
* They moved from -.3 to -.4 and he announced an expansion of their quantitative easing program from €60 billion per month to €80 billion, which means that their program is not larger than the Fed's; remember we were doing $85 billion a month before we tapered it down
* So what the ECB is doing is closer to $90 billion
* The problem for the market is that even though he fired a bigger blast than the markets had anticipated, after he fired it, he put that bazooka back in his holster
* What I mean by that, is at the end of his press conference, Draghi mention that he thought that this would probably be the last cut, that -40 is as low as the ECB is going to go
* Now maybe the market was just looking for an excuse to reverse, but the Euro, which had initially dropped sharply, about 1.5% down on the day, following the initial announcement, reversed and ended up falling about 2%, so it was a 3.5% reversal, and from what I've read, this is the biggest reversal, ever in the euro, from down to up
* In fact the dollar index went through 4 handles, at its highs this morning, the dollar index was at 98.5 and at its lows it was trading at around 95
* Many people think this is a failure for the ECB; they want a weaker euro, because they want more inflation
* I think the ECB is going to get more inflation, whether the euro weakens or strengthens against the dollar, because it's still going to weaken in real purchasing power
* Just as I mentioned in yesterday's podcast, referring to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Mario Draghi is saying that he doesn't have enough inflation, and interestingly enough, Draghi is going to get more inflation, and more than he's bargaining for
* He mentioned in his press conference that these things take time, because it will take time for inflation for develop because first we need the recovery to regain traction, as if inflation is a by-product of economic growth - it's not.
* It's a by-product of all the money printing
* It's just that right now, a lot of that money printing is in the financial assets
* But all this QE and negative interest rates are not going to get economic growth
* Now maybe the Eurozone economy will grow, but it's not because of QE, it's despite QE
* In fact, there would be more growth, if the ECB wasn't doing this, what they are doing is counter productive
* But ultimately they will succeed in getting more inflation, in fact they will get more than they bargained for
* I predict that prices in the Eurozone will not only hit the 2% target, it will exceed it, and that will mean the ECB is going to have to quickly withdraw that stimulus, they will have to raise rates much faster than they thought and much higher than they thought, but at least they'll do it
* We can't. that's the big difference. Europe can afford higher rates, America cannot
* Europe is going to have the Bundesbank pressuring the ECB fight that inflation; there will be no such pressure on the Fed from the United States
* Normally, too, when the ECB eases, gold goes down and that was the knee-jerk reaction, as soon as the announcement came out, the price of gold dropped about $15, but it reversed very quickly and it ended up finishing up $19
* We're talking about a $35 intra day reversal, in fact, the low was below $1240, but ever since the price of gold closed above $1250, it has never closed below $1250
* This is the highest close of the year, it's the first time I've see gold close above $1270
* Gold stocks closed at their highs of the year,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/11/2016 • 25 minutes, 24 seconds
Why Didn’t the Fed “Just Say No”? – Ep. 149
* So far it's been a pretty light week but what little economic data that has been released is bad, and all of it evidences the recession that nobody wants to acknowledge
* Let's start with the Consumer Credit numbers that came out on Monday. Not only was the number extremely weak, but the revisions to the prior month were even weaker
* The initial report for the growth in consumer credit in December was $21.3 billion
* Now I don't think growth in consumer credit is good; I think it undermines long-term living standards
* The last thing you want to do is borrow money to consume, one of the points I really hammered home in my book, "How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes"
* If you haven't bought that book, you should get a copy
* Be sure to pick the collector's edition because, in addition to being a really beautiful book, it has two entirely new chapters. If you already have the original one, buy the collector's edition and give the original away to a friend.
* Consumers should not borrow to consume. They should save to consume.
* Businesses should use our savings to invest in capital equipment to grow the economy
* When you consume savings, you undermine long-term economic growth and therefore future consumption is diminished
* The problem is we're living in a bubble, and in order to sustain this bubble economy, consumers have to keep spending
* In this economy, however in order to keep spending they have to keep borrowing because they're certainly not earning, and they don't have any savings
* This has to blow up eventually but right now, it's all about keeping the music going
* Consumer credit was revised down from the originally reported $21.3 billion to just $6.4 billion of growth
* They were looking for January to grow by $16.5 billion, and of course, this also includes student loans, as well as credit cards
* Instead, we got an increase of just $10.5 billion
* Consumer credit growth imploded in December and January
* If there's all this job creation why aren't these newly-employed people spending money?
* This shows you the jobs are going to people who already have part-time jobs, and need to supplement hours and wages
* Also, we got the Small Business Optimism Index, which last month was 93.9, and there was an expectation that it would increase to 94.2, that small businesses would be a little more optimistic, yet it dropped a full point to 92.9 - the lowest level in 2 years
* If that is the case, why are they hiring people?
* The type of hiring that is going on is hiring part time workers to replace full-time workers
* Which brings me to the data that came out today: Wholesale Trade
* Inventories were expected to drop, but they increased by .3%
* And the inventory for December was revised from -.1 to unchanged
* The reason inventories spiked is because sales collapsed
* The inventory to sales ratio just hit a new high, at 1.35
* This is a 7-year high. The last time the inventory to sales ratio was this high was in April of 2009. We were still knee-deep in the Great Recession
* If this recovery even exists, why isn't the merchandise being bought?
* At some point this year, the lone remaining bright spot in this horrible economic landscape - the number of jobs being created - will turn down
* We got more disappointing corporate earnings news this week
* The reason the stock market is moving slightly up is because of the sentiment that the Fed will not raise rates in the near future
* It's not just the stock market - Oil is above $38/barrel
* Also some of the industrial metals have had huge spikes
* And of course, the dollar is going down against other currencies
* The Australian dollar hit an 8- month high
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/10/2016 • 36 minutes, 54 seconds
Part-time Employment SURGES as Weekly Earnings Drop the MOST EVER!
* The media, the Federal Reserve and President Obama continue to ignore the overwhelming evidence out this week, in fact every week for the past couple of months that the U.S. economy has already slipped back into recession
* The last revision to Q4 GDP showed the economy grew by 1% for the quarter, but remember, the government never acknowledges a recession until it's practically over
* The Great Recession started in December of 2007 but it wasn't until the fall of 2008 that the government finally went back and revised the numbers down to show when the recession actually began
* Halfway through the recession, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street didn't even have recession in their forecast despite the fact that we had been in one for more than 6 months
* What everybody is focusing on are the jobs numbers
* We got another non-farm payroll report yesterday and, again, low unemployment, 4.9% and more than 200,000 jobs created
* President Obama, as he peddles his fiction of economic recovery, focuses on the fact that the unemployment rate is low, and we're creating all these jobs, proving that his policies are working
* He's trying to take credit for a recovery that doesn't exist. Let's look behind the numbers of yesterday's better than expected jobs report
* First of all the headline number: how many jobs were created? The consensus was 190,000 and we got 242,000 - a big beat
* Not only that, last month's number up to 172,000
* The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, still below the psychologically important 5%
* Here is a detail that President Obama didn't mention at all: average hourly earnings were expected to rise .2% and that followed the big jump last month of .5%
* If you remember, on my video blog last month I said that was a one-off event
* That increase was the result of all the minimum wage hikes that kicked in in January
* I said that number would reverse by February and that's exactly what happened
* Instead of getting an increase of .2%, we got a drop of .1%
* That is the first time that's happened since December of 2014
* It is very rare to get a decline in average hourly wages, because prices keep rising
* In the last 10 years this has only happened 6 times
* In addition to the drop in earnings, hours worked actually declined from an average of 34.6 hrs to 34.4 hrs
* When you take into account that Americans earned less per hour and worked fewer hours you get a total drop in weekly earnings of .7%
* That is the biggest drop in weekly earnings as far back as they've been keeping records
* Is this something that President Obama wants to accept responsibility for?
* Here's some more information that we're not getting:
* I've said for a long time that the reason so many jobs are being created is because we are transitioning from full-time employment to part-time employment
* That is where all the jobs are coming from
* According to the household survey, 88% of the jobs created in February were part time jobs
* That means only 12% of that big 240,000 number were full time jobs!
* If you look further beneath the surface at the type of jobs, you'll see that 80% of those jobs were in low-paying service sector jobs, many of them being minimum wage
* We actually lost 17,000 manufacturing jobs
* We lost mining jobs
* We lost logging jobs
* We lost high-income jobs that provide benefits to American workers, and we replaced them with low-paying part-time jobs without benefits
* That is why you have so many people showing up for Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump Rallies
* They are hearing about a recovery, but they are living in a recession
* Let me get to some of the numbers that nobody paid attention to:
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/6/2016 • 23 minutes, 41 seconds
Thoughts On The Economy, Buffet, Oscars & Politics – Ep.148
* The Dow finished the last trading day in February, with a 123-point decline, in fact the Dow Jones closed at the low of the day; the NASDAQ was down 32.5 points
* Gold reversed the declined from Friday, it was up $16.5 today it's up another $2.50 as I record this, we're now back above $1240
* The reason gold declined on Friday was that the rate hike was apparently back on the table because of some stronger than expected Q4 GDP numbers and also the consumer income and spending numbers were hotter than expected
* If you remember, I thought Q4 GDP would be revised down from .7%, in fact the consensus was for a downward revision to .4%; as it turned out, the government moved it up to +1%
* The reason for the adjustment was that inventories were not draw down as much as was originally thought, so I suppose that will happen in 2016 Q1
* In fact, the Atlanta GDP has already walked down their estimate for Q1 a bit, since that number came out.
* I don't think it really matters with the government says Q4 GDP was, because before the year is over they will revise that quarter negative because they will have to admit that the recession began last quarter
* They always declare a recession after the fact by going back and revising down the data
* We got the January trade deficit in merchandise that actually came out bigger than expected; $62.2 billion vs $61 billion - that's a lot of red ink for merchandise trade in one month
* What also spooked the gold market was the income and spending numbers - hotter than anticipated - personal income up .5 vs .4 expected, spending also up .5 vs .3 expected
* The core CPE numbers, the inflation numbers were hotter also; instead of being unchanged, were up .1
* Year over year, we were up 1.7 on the core and 1.3 overall
* The idea was that these numbers indicated that the rate hikes are back on the table
* I don't think so; especially when you look at the horrible numbers that came out today
* First is the Chicago PMI for February. Last month was 55.6, they were looking for 52.9; we got 47.6
* If you look at some of the sub-components, including employment, this was the weakest Chicago PMI since the great recession of 2009
* Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/1/2016 • 45 minutes, 50 seconds
Even Cramer Can See Bullard Is Blind – Ep. 147
* The rally in the U.S. stock market continues, the Dow closing up more than 212 right at the high of the day
* It's not just the Dow Jones that is rising, and by the way, this is the highest the Dow Jones has closed since early January, so it's better than a one month high
* Oil prices closed above $33/barrel for West Texas, again that's the highest level since early January
* The dollar is weak across the board, in fact the Canadian dollar hit a 3-month high today against the U.S. dollar - this currency has really been beaten up until recently
* Gold, higher again today, up about 4 or 5 bucks, it closed above $1232
* What is behind the rally? I think it is the deluge of bad economic news that keeps raining down on this market
* I believe more and more people are beginning to realize that the Fed is not only not going to be raising interest rates in 2016, but they will cut them, and do another round of economic stimulus and that's is what is saving the market
* The question is, with the Fed actually validate those expectations?
* Even Jim Cramer of CNBC can see there's a recession
* I just put up an article on my Facebook page yesterday, Cramer is saying the Fed is blind and can't see the recession
* Maybe Cramer has been listening to my podcasts...
* Do you remember the famous interview with Jim Cramer and Erin Burnett that went viral and he went on a rant about the Fed, "They know nothing!"
* You've got Cramer calling out the Fed for not appreciating the weakness in the economy and calling on them to do something
* I think they are going to do something, they're not just going to turn a deaf ear to the economy
* But the Fed is still officially sticking to the party line
* Today I wanted to talk about the CNBC interview with Jim Bullard
* First, he told Matt Belvedere he was concerned that "inflation expectations" were too low
* Of all the things you're going to worry about as a central banker, you're going to worry about the fact that people don't expect enough inflation?
* Historically that would be a victory - that's what you want as a central banker
* You want to stamp out the fear of inflation
* What Bullard wants is more fear - he wants people to expect even higher inflation than they currently experience
* Why would he want that?
* Supposedly the lack of belief that inflation is going to be higher is somehow holding back the economy
* Bullard believes inflation is going to be higher; why is he upset that the public doesn't believe it, too? Why?
* How does the expectation of higher inflation help an economy?
* The only thing that's good about inflation is if you're a debtor; if you borrowed money, inflation will help ease the pain of that debt
* You would figure the last thing the Fed would want is for people to expect higher inflation, because what would happen to bond holders?
* Bond holders would not want to hold bonds at low rates; they would demand higher interest on those bonds, which would crush the government because they don't have the money
* It would also crush the Fed, because the Fed's balance sheet is loaded up with long-term government bonds that yi...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/26/2016 • 35 minutes, 53 seconds
Recession Hiding in Plain Sight – Ep. 146
* We had some wild swing in the market today, particularly the stock market and the gold market
* At one point this morning, the Dow Jones was down about 270 points
* It finished the day up 53 points
* There wasn't any real news that caused the market to go up; people were buying the dip
* The oil market also turned around; it was down a buck and change and managed to close up .20-.30
* Gold was the mirror image; gold was up at one point to $27-$28, back above $1250
* Then when the stock market rallied back the gold market sold off
* It managed to closed with a small $3 gain or so
* Gold stocks closed the day mixed, most still positive on the day
* The reason why the stock market falling is positive for gold is the effect that a falling stock market is going to have on the Fed, and its decisions on future interest rate hikes
* Even if the stock market is not going down, the Fed will still reverse on rates because of the economy
* The economy is back in recession, whether the Fed wants to acknowledge the fact or not
* We had another Fed official, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, actually came out saying he sees no signs that a recession is imminent
* He sees no reason why the Fed should not go forward with the planned rate hikes for 2016
* Maybe rose-colored glasses are standard issue over at the Fed
* There is ample evidence that there is a recession
* However, if someone of Lacker's stature would come out and say, "Look, we're going into a recesssion, but rates are really low and the Fed has to raise them anyway, and this is going to be difficult." That would be honest.
* But the Fed is saying they are going to raise rates because the economy is in great shape
* To do otherwise is to admit that the Fed's monetary policy failed
* The Fed is playing a very dangerous game
* Not only do they risk making the economy worse, they risk their credibility
* Here is some economic news that came out today, after Lacker's speech
* At 9:45 am we got the February PMI Flash Services Index
* Last month, the number was 53.7 and this number was expected to repeat for February
* The February number came out at 49.8! This shows that the recession is not contained to manufacturing
* This reminds me of what they said about sub-prime: "Don't worry about it, the recession is contained to sub-prime." - That was nonsense and it is nonsense now
* The problems in the economy are not contained to manufacturing, and today's numbers prove it
* The service sector contracted in February
* The last time this happened was in October of 2013. That was during the government shut-down, so a lot of government services were not available
* That's an outlier - if you take that out, the last time we had a service sector PMI below 50 was during the great recession
* So again, another indicator flashing recession
* It's amazing to me that the Atlanta Fed still hasn't walked down their 2.6% forecast for Q1 GDP
* We've gotten so much bad news since the good news that prompted that forecast yet they've done nothing to downwardly revise their estimate
* The FOMC might have said, "Hey, Atlanta, get with the program! We're talking up the economy - stop coming up with these negative forecasts."
* On Friday, we're going to get the revised Q4 GDP numbers, which was originally reported as +.7
* I think it will be revised down, in fact the consensus is a revision down to .4
* So we're getting closer and closer to zero
* The numbers we're getting for the first quarter could be worse, despite the Federal Reserve's rosy scenario
* Also we got New Home Sales, which was a disaster; they were looking for 520,000 and we got 494,000 - that was a big,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/25/2016 • 26 minutes, 21 seconds
Stagflation Rears Its Ugly Head – Ep.145
* It looks like Jamie Dimon's bottom turned out to be the trap door I thought it was, with the Dow Jones today down almost 190 points
* The market was let lower by the financials, JP Morgan itself down better than 4%
* Remember it was Jami Dimon having the confidence to put a year's salary into company stock that sparked this rally, but it seems to be losing steam and rolling over
* Because we're not going to get a lasting bottom until the Fed makes that bottom
* It's not going to be a Jamie Dimon bottom, it has to be a Janet Yellen bottom; and as much as I have no interest in seeing Janet Yellen's bottom, that's exactly what we're going to have to do to get a real low in this market
* Every single decline that the market has experienced since 2009, the bottom has been set by the Fed
* It's been the Fed forming that bottom by coming to the rescue with rate cuts, QE programs, Operation Twist, hinting about more QE, and so far, the Fed has done none of that
* The Fed is still sticking to its narrative that rate hikes are coming
* Yes, nobody believes they're coming anytime soon, but that is still the official forecast
* Meanwhile, the markets can't even deal with rates as is
* The gold market will be the mirror image of the stock market; gold was up about $16 today
* It reversed a near $20 decline yesterday, but it consolidating its huge move above $1200
* So we are not getting the pullback that Dennis Gartman and Jim Cramer are hoping for to get on board
* I think if people want to get on board this train, this is the stop.
* If you like gold, just buy it and be happy that you're getting it for $1225 - yes, you could have bought it below $1100 in December, but $1225 is still cheap
* The most interesting about yesterday's drop in gold - the gold stocks didn't really decline
* Most of the gold stocks finished positive on the day
* Gold stocks added to their gains today, and many are sitting on their highest close of the year, and several are at 52-week highs
* Other than the gold stocks, the 52-week high list is pretty short
* The 52-week low list looks like a rap sheet
* Something happened on Friday that made some people believe that help from the Fed is not forthcoming
* Which may be part of the reason why the markets are declining
* The release of the CPI number caught a lot of people by surprise: January consumer prices, forecast to drop by .1%
* The real number was the core rate, which excludes food and energy was up .3, month over month - the biggest jump since August 2011
* The increase in the core price year-over-year was 2.2%, the biggest increase since June of 2012
* Remember, the Fed says our target is 2%, well, we got 2.2!
* We're there! We can raise rates! That's what's so scary
* I wrote a commentary that is posted on this website, "The Fed’s Nightmare Scenario", and I got that title after reading an article in which an economist who, observing that the CPI was 2.2% announced that this is a"dream come true" for the Fed
* He cited inflation as the primary barrier to the Fed's rate increase goals
* The Fed's "mandate" of 2% inflation is finally met
* First, the Fed doesn't have a mandate of 2% inflation. They made that up.
* The Fed's real mandate is price stability, which doesn't require a definition, because everybody knows what the word "stable" means
* The Federal Reserve decided to interpret that mandate to mean an increase of 2%
* The late U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was one of the few justices who believed in the "bizarre concept" of original intent
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/24/2016 • 27 minutes, 52 seconds
Gold Sacks Goldman Sachs – Ep. 144
* What a difference two days make! Two days ago I recorded my podcast, "Goldman Sachs Sacks Gold", and that was because Goldman Sachs' comments about shorting gold were partially responsible for the severity of the drop in gold over the holiday weekend
* Today, gold is fighting back, at one gold was up better than $30, although as I record this the price has pulled back a bit, still above $1230 - up about $22 on the day
* Gold stocks, the GDX index I mentioned in my last podcast, was up 6% on the day, the biggest move up of the year
* That index has recovered everything it lost on Tuesday
* GDX would have been up a lot more, except that Newmont Mining came out with lower than expected earnings for the 4th quarter; so that stock was only up about 1% after dropping 7% in the first hour of trading
* Several gold stocks made new 52-week highs today and several others are at the highest point of this calendar year
* A very strong day for gold and gold stocks just a couple of days after Goldman Sachs recommended selling the metal short
* People would have been much better off shorting Goldman Sachs
* One of the other catalysts for the rise in the price of gold may well have been the comments made overnight by Jim Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
* After I read his comments, I expected the price of gold to rally right away, but it didn't begin until later this morning
* Bullard was one of the real Hawks on the Fed, he wanted to raise rates much earlier, citing concern about a stock market bubble
* Talk about closing the barn door after the horses have left! They have left the stables, the property, they're barely on the planet!
* His comments last night about why the Fed should slow down the rate hikes are ironic, because his reason is the volatility in the stock market
* Let me get this straight: He wants to raise rates because we don't want a stock market bubble;
* They raise rates, the bubble is deflating and he wants to stop the rate cuts
* You can't have it both ways.
* Do you want to use monetary policy to prop up the stock market or not?
* Bullard has not turned dove, do who's left? The FOMC minutes came out Wednesday and they showed that only a couple of governors did not show concern over the weakness in the stock market
* What really should get the Fed governors nervous is the economy
* Today we got the Leading Economic Indicators and last month they were down, in fast the original estimate for December was-.2 - instead, it was revised to -.3
* January is now -.2, so that is the second consecutive month of declining Leading Economic Indicators
* That has not happened since August and September of 2011
* Here's the interesting part: QE2 ended in June of that year, so 2 months after the end of QE2, the economic indicators flashed recession
* What did the Fed do? In September of 2011, the second month of the back-to-back declines in LEI, the Fed launched Operation Twist
* That's what happening now, they just raised interest rates, we got back-to-back declines in LEI, what's the Fed going to do? They are going to come back and save the market
* We got more bad economic news today; the Philly Fed, this is the 6th consecutive monthly decline
* January was down 3.5%; February was down 2.8%
* They were expecting -2.5%, so we got a bigger decline than expected
* We got weak news on the housing market; housing starts dropping to a 3-month low, much lower than the 1.175M - instead we got 1.099M
* Permits were also light; they were looking for 1.334M and we got 1.202M on starts
* I think we are just getting started when it comes to the fallout in the housing market
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/19/2016 • 30 minutes, 12 seconds
Goldman Sachs Sacks Gold – Ep. 143
* The big story of the day was the pullback in the price of gold
* Gold was above $1260 last week; it pulled back a little bit on Friday, but the real damage happened overnight on Monday, while we were celebrating Presidents' Day
* At one point gold was down almost $50; trading even below $1190
* When we opened up for trading in New York, gold was back above $1210.; it tried to rally, but really couldn't, in fact the only time gold rallied today is when the Dow sold off to +50 from +150
* The stock market and the gold market are the mirror image of each other right now
* Ultimately, I do believe that stocks, gold stocks and gold will be going in the same direction because they will all respond positively to the Fed admitting that it will not raise interest rates, and in fact cut them and will launch QE4
* Now, gold is the safe haven from weak stocks, but the best environment is when the Fed steps up to save stocks, and that's when the gold trade is going to catch a bid
* But when the market closed on the highs of the day, up over 200 points, that means gold closed on the low of the day
* GLD, the ETF for gold, for today's decline, we were down $35.90
* In the spot market, we closed right about $1200 even
* A good point: look at the gold stocks, GDX, that index was down 8.65%
* In all the big gold up days, we never had a comparable up day for gold stocks
* On gold's best day, the biggest day since 2008, gold stocks were just up about 5%
* Yet on the down side, a -3% move in gold produces a -9% move in gold stocks
* Why is all the movement on the down side?
* One, there's still more fear than greed in the gold market
* This is a good sign - a bull market climbing a wall of worry
* This is just a resumption of a long-term secular market that began in 1999-2000
* Goldman Sachs rhetoric may in part be responsible for the sharp selloff
* I mention on last week's podcast that Goldman was recommending a sell on gold, that it was going back down to $1000
* On Monday, while the market was having a holiday, Goldman Sachs was out with their PR again, not only telling people to sell gold, but to short gold
* Why would Goldman Sachs be telling people to short gold?
* Why would they bother with a 20% short when there are so many stocks being killed right now that would be much better to short
* Gold will never be worthless, what if it goes up? Why risk losing all that money?
* The risk/reward isn't there
* Goldman says they don't think there will be a recession and the Fed's going to keep raising rates
* They admit there is a small chance of a recession this year: what's going to happen to gold if we go into recession?
* What happens if you have shorted gold, hoping to capture just 20%?
* The only thing that would make sense to me is that Goldman Sachs wants the price of gold to go down because they're probably already short - that's whyPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/17/2016 • 24 minutes, 14 seconds
Janet Yellen Channels Scott Nations – Ep. 142
* Big day in gold today; gold broke over $1200 for the first time in almost over a year, in fact we hit a new 1-year high
* I saw gold trading above 1260 at one point in the morning, that was up better than $60 on the ounce; It closed up 49.10, I believe at $124.90
* Remember, I was on CNBC "Futures Now" earlier in the week and gold was around $1180-$1190 and they were trying to press me on where I thought it would go, and I said, it's going to go higher, I'm bullish in the short term, the medium and the long term
* But I'll tell you one thing: when gold brakes through $1200, it's going to move to $1300 very quickly and people are going to be surprised
* It's just been one day and we're halfway there
* Gold stocks still reflect a lot of skepticism on this rally; Gold stocks were up about 7% on the day
* Gold stocks have a long way to go to catch up
* I mentioned on the last podcast, Dennis Gartman, who got bullish on gold, told people not to buy, he said wait for a pull back
* Well the people who are waiting f or a pull back are still waiting and they missed this entire $50 move
* The stock market was the mirror image of the gold market today; at one point, with less than an hour to go, the Dow was down 400 points again, the NASDAQ was maybe down about 60
* Then all of a sudden there was a rumor floated that the United Arab Emirates was considering meeting with other OPEC nations about a production cut and all of a sudden the market rallied
* The NASDAQ actually rallied positive; the Dow got to about -170 and then they rolled over on the close, Dow down 254, NASDAQ down 16.76 - horrible close
* Of course the weakest stocks on the day continue to be the financials getting decimated to new lows
* Goldman Sachs down about 4.5%, Morgan Stanley down 4.5%, Bank of America down 6.8% - many of these companies making new 52-week lows
* But outside the financials, the debacle du jour, in the stock market is Boeing, which is a Dow component, was down 7% on the day, near a 3-year low; the lowest I saw inter-day was -12%
* The news is that the SEC will investigate their accounting practices - that can't be good
* Also they reported that they are going to be laying off workers in an effort to contain their costs
* It's not just about bad oil loans, that's part of the story, that's just the tip of a huge iceberg
* In fact, the market rallied because of the rumor of OPEC is making moves to support oil prices
* We hear people saying that what the stock market needs is higher oil prices. No we don't!
* Higher oil prices will help oil stocks, but they're not going to help the overall market market because some guy writes an algorithm that runs a program that says, "Buy stocks when oil goes up"
* Steve Liesman said on CNBC recently that he never would have believed the market would be so dependent on oil prices
* A lot of people make that mistake, assuming that oil is driving the stock market but the same factors are dominating both: fear of higher interest rates and weakness in the U.S. economy
* But eventually, I think oil prices will go up, and the stock market will continue to go down
* Many people are hopeful that Janet Yellen's second trip to Capitol Hill, this time talking to the Senate, might save the market; apparently that was not the case
* Janet Yellen, this time, in the Q&A was closer to admitting that negative rates are coming
* She actually said they would consider doing it if the economy needed it
* All the discussion is going straight to negative rates and skipping over zero interest rates and QE
* There was no discussion about reversing December's .25 rate hike
* If Janet Yellen is thinking about negative rates, she has ready considered zero rates and QE
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/12/2016 • 27 minutes, 38 seconds
Yellen Throws Sinking Market an Anchor – Ep. 141
* Janet Yellen was up on the Hill today for the first of her two-day testimony before Congress
* Remember I said the only way that Janet Yellen could stop the market from falling is to admit that the Fed will alter its 4-rate-hike trajectory for 2016, and she didn't do that
* As a result, the stock market failed to sustain its early morning gains; the Dow was up better than 100 points - closed near the low of the day down 99.64
* The NASDAQ, which was up not quite 100 points earlier in the day closed on the low of the day, up only about 14 points on the day
* It was the opposite for gold; gold was actually down this morning before Yellen spoke, down around 1180-ish on the lows; we closed up $8 on the high of the day - $1197 - knocking on the door of $1200
* The gold stocks were clobbered this morning and they closed positive; the gold index was up about 2-2-1/2% - it was down 4% earlier when gold was down but by the stock market opened gold wasn't down $8 anymore, it was down about $2 or $3, yet gold stocks were clobbered
* Maybe it's still the overhang from Goldman Sachs coming out yesterday and predicting that gold would fall below $1000/oz in 2016
* That probably means that Goldman Sachs is short a bunch of gold and they want to cover, or they just need to buy and they're trying to convince the muppets who actually pay attention to what they say, to sell their gold to them
* Janet Yellen continued with the narrative that everything is O.K. - the economy is fine, the recovery is on track, yes, she acknowledged some headwinds: growth was a little bit slower at the end of last year, but no big deal
* There are some problems overseas that they're monitoring , there are some financial tightening: overseas markets are weak, domestic markets are weak, yes the Fed is paying attention to all that
* But so far, from their perspective, everything is on track, the recovery is moving along, the labor market is strong, despite the fact that there is no improvement in labor force participation, there's no improvement in the part-time workers who want full-time work, there's no real wage growth other than the bump from the minimum wage hike
* But despite all that, Janet Yellen still maintains that everything looks good, that we will overcome these headwinds - this is her most likely scenario
* She did acknowledge that monetary policy is not fixed, that the trajectory is not set in stone, that the Fed will monitor incoming data, and if the data evolves in a manner they don't expect, then yes, they might not raise interest rates as much as they believe they're going to raise them
* As far as the Fed is concerned, based on the data they have now, their most likely scenario is that everything is fine, which means the market is going to keep falling
* It's almost ironic that Yellen would say, "The markets are weak, and if they stay weak then we might have to adjust our monetary policy" - that means the markets are going to stay weak!
* The only way to stop the markets from falling is for the markets to know that rates aren't going up
* I think it's more than just the absence of rate hikes: this market needs more QE
* The Fed dialed back the dosage and the market requires it now, or it will start going down
* I was watching a great interview with Jim Grant today on CNBC and he was saying all the things I am saying: he says we're already in a recession; he's confident that it began at the end of last year and he thinks the Fed is going to go back to zero and do more QE, and that they might go negative
* Janet Yellen was asked about negative rates in her testimony, apparently the Fed had considered it back in 2010 and they rejected it and she was asked if negative interest rates are even legal
* Yellen said to her knowledge there is nothing legally preventing the Fed from going ...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/11/2016 • 34 minutes, 14 seconds
Scott Nations Claims Peter Schiff Was Never Right – Ep. 140
* It was another volatile day in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow swinging from positive to negative to positive to finally closing negative, but well off the lows and the highs of the day
* The NASDAQ was only down about 15; the Dow down about 12 points
* The real action was in the currency markets: the dollar got clobbered today, a new 4-month low in the euro, 2-year low in the yen, the Swiss franc was probably the strongest currency on the day
* The dollar index actually traded in the 95 handle before recovering slightly back up above 967
* Gold, several times flirted with $1200 again, couldn't quite make it there; the highest I saw it was $1198, it didn't touch $1200
* The gold stocks got hammered - they were down about 4% today, I guess the fact that gold could not break through to $1200 caused people to sell gold stocks, even though there was very little selling in gold itself
* What I want to discuss on today's podcast is my appearance on CNBC's web program, "Futures Now"
* My appearance was promoted on television, although this appearance was actually on CNBC.com
* They like to have me on, because I am good for their ratings online
* The YouTube video of my appearance is posted on my Facebook page
* Go back and look at my last several appearances on Futures Now with Scott Nations, who constantly wants to remind everybody how wrong I am about everything
* They have to admit that I was right about several things
* When I was on their show the day after the rate hike and also several times before the rate hike
* I said I did not think the Fed could raise rates because it would push the economy into recession, cause a bear market in stocks - basically prick the bubble
* I did not think the Fed would be willing to put themselves in the difficult position of having to reverse the rate cut and lose credibility
* Up until December, I was right. But even I had started to admit that the Fed might do such a thing by the time they actually did it
* Look at what's happened. It's been a blood bath since they've raised rates
* Look at what's happening in the financials - they've lost half their value
* Look at gold: I said if the Fed raised rates, Gold would go up- it went up from $1050/oz. the day after they raised rates to $1200
* I said if the Fed raised rates, the dollar would go down and now it's at a 4-month low - Gold's at a 7-month high
* Dollar going down, gold going up, stocks getting crushed that's exactly what I said
* You'd think they would at least acknowledge that I got something right
* But then, you'd be wrong
* Host Jackie DeAngelis' introduced me by saying, "Peter Schiff claims he got everything right!"
* They are implying that they disagree that I was right about the consequences of the rate hike
* In the article on the interview, they misquoted me by saying that I claimed to get everything right.
* I did refer back to my published quotes, which clearly state that I thought the market and the dollar would tank and gold would go up if the Fed actually raised rates.
* Scott Nations said, "I don't know if Peter Schiff got anything right"
* All the forecasts on "Futures Now" I made the day after the Fed raised rates were correct and Scott Nations got everything wrong
* The very first thing the host said to me on my interview was that I was wrong, in that I said it was impossible for the Fed to raise rates
* I did not say that. I said it would be impossible for the Fed to raise rates without causing the stock market to go down,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/10/2016 • 34 minutes, 39 seconds
Gold Hits $1,200 as Financials Get Hit – Ep. 139
* As I mentioned in my video blog I recorded on Friday, the jobs data that came out on Friday was just not weak enough for the market
* So the markets' carnage continues, because everybody still believes the Federal Reserve may in fact be raising interest rates - the only question is, will it be in March, will it be in June, the markets don't know and so they continue to be under pressure
* At one point today, the Dow Jones was down nearly 400 points
* The NASDAQ was down about another 150 intra-day
* We had one of these last hour rallies, just to keep hope alive so the Dow closed down just 177 points, the NASDAQ down 79
* At the lows today, we were within 1% of a bear market, in the NASDAQ, so technically Wall Street can pretend they are not in a bear market, maybe for a few more days
* The same thing is going to happen with the recession - everybody is saying there is no recession, but eventually they will have to admit it
* I was reading an article by an economist from one of the bigger banks, who said, there will be some more downside, maybe the NASDAQ will go down to about 3900
* But, he said, "Don't worry, it's not going to be as bad as 2000 or 2008 because the economy is in good shape and the odds of a recession are very slim."
* What would make him think the odds of a recession are slim? All the data is horrible.
* Manufacturing is already in a recession; the service sector is contracting rapidly
* It has been seven years since the last recession so we're overdue…
* The Fed is tightening, raising interest rates, as a matter of fact they've been tightening for 2 years if you understand that the "Taper Talk" was the beginning of the tightening
* Plus, we're in a bear market
* We often hear, "The market has predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions"
* OK, well, the Fed has predicted zero of the last 5 recessions
* They always say there's not going to be a recession right before there's a recession, in fact, they have a history of saying there won't be a recession when we're already in a recession
* What led the carnage in the stock market was the sell-off in European banks and it was brutal, in fact these big banks are lower than their lows in the depth of the Financial Crisis
* The big one is Deutsche Bank had to come out today and re assure everybody that they did not have a solvency problem
* All the U.S. stocks hit 52-week lows: Morgan Stanley hit a 52-week low, Goldman Sachs down 4-1/2% - 52-week low, Bank of America down 5-1/4% - 52-week low
* These stocks will continue to suffer until the Fed cries Uncle, or Aunt
* The ECB can't do it, the Bank of Japan can't do it - negative rates are actually making it worse for the European banks
* There is no more stimulus coming from Europe because the stimulus is causing a bigger problem than it is supposed to cure
* I've said this many times: bankers in Europe were worried about, "Lowflation" as they see weak oil prices, so now they want to stimulate
* But whenever they stimulate, they cause the dollar to strengthen and the stronger dollar further suppresses the commodity prices, threatening more "Lowflation"
* The Bank of Japan can't do anything, in fact the yen was up again today a new 52-week high for the Japanese yen, so even though Japan has gone negative the yen is rising not just to a 52-week high, this is the highest it has been since October of 2014
* In Europe they are making the situation worse by easing
* Who's left? Janet Yellen will speak to Congress Wednesday and Thursday this week and maybe she'll throw the market a lifesaver this time instead of an anchor
* This is exactly what I have been saying would happen - the Fed would prick its own bubble with just a tiny .25 hole and the air has come gushing out
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/9/2016 • 25 minutes, 15 seconds
Weak Jobs Report Not Weak Enough For Stocks – Schiff Report
* It really was a brutal week on Wall Street, led by the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which is down about 5-1/2% on the week; 3% of that alone came today, now down about 17% from its high
* Not officially in a bear market yet, but getting there
* The vast majority of NASDAQ stocks are in bear markets, in fact, many of those stocks are down 40 or 50% or more - a number of those stocks down 40 or 50% today alone
* The Russell 2000 is already in a bear market; it's down 24%
* Dow Transports also down 25%, and transports were actually up this week
* The S&P and the Dow are only down about 12% - in correction but not quite a bear market, but remember, all bear markets begin as corrections, and I think this is just the early stage of a bear market
* You can contrast that with what's going on with gold; gold was up 5% on the week. It added $18 today alone to close above 1170, in fact the price of gold has risen by $120/ounce since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December
* The dollar also had a bad week, despite rising somewhat today on the jobs numbers, the dollar index had its worst weekly decline since 2009
* So now, the opposite of what everybody expected has happened
* Everybody thought the stock market would go up, because the rate hike was proof that the economy was stronger; instead the stock market has tanked, in fact the beginning of January was Wall Street's worst start to the year in history
* In contrast, the expectation was that rising interest rates would help the dollar; instead the dollar has actually declined
* Higher interest rates were expected to be bearish for gold; instead it was the catalyst for a huge rally in the price of gold
* The weaker than expected jobs report was assumed to be the reason for today's stock market carnage, because we only created 151,000 non-farm payroll jobs and the Street was looking for 188,000 jobs
* The reality is not that the report was weak, it is that it was not weak enough
* The only thing that could have saved this market would have been a horrible jobs report - a jobs report so bad that an interest rate hike would be clearly off the table
* Instead, this jobs report could indicate that the Fed is more likely to raise rates as a result of the numbers
* That is why the market went down
* No one wants to admit that the only thing holding up this market is the Fed, so they pretend that the market is disappointed by the weakness of the report
* Jobs have nothing to do with it - this market has always been about one thing - the Fed and cheap money
* Now it hangs on weather the Fed will raise rates again
* I believe the next thing the Fed is going to do is to cut interest rates
* I think they might even go negative and they going to launch QE4
* The markets have not figured this out yet
* Even the Atlanta Fed, whose first estimate of Q1 GDP at just 1.2% (I think this is an over-estimation; I think the Q4 .7% will be downwardly revised) saw this apparently strong jobs report they increased their Q1 GDP estimate by a full percentage point to 2.2%
* If the Atlanta Fed thought the jobs report was so strong, why are the reporters assigning blame to the jobs report for the sell-off
* If you look beneath the headline number of the miss, on the number of non-farm payrolls, you'll find out what the markets were so worried about:
* 1) The official unemployment rate moved down to 4.9% - that's the first time we've had a 4 handle on the unemployment rate since Obama has been President
* In fact, he did not waste much time calling a press conference proclaiming the success of his administration and declaring that the U.S. economy is the strongest in the world; quite ironic because I thin we are already in recession
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/6/2016 • 27 minutes, 34 seconds
Recovery Fantasy Persists Despite Recession Evidence – Ep. 138
* So far the month of February is just 4 trading days old, and already the U.S. dollar index is down just over 3 percent
* We closed January at 99.6 and we closed at 96.5
* Gold, going the other way, now up about $13 today, closing above $1,155; the price of gold is up almost 3.5% in the first 4 days of February
* That shows you that most of the move in gold is the result of the dollar going down
* This move is just getting started
* The markets are just beginning to price in the fact that the Fed is not going to raise rates in March
* They are pricing 3, rather than 4 rate hikes this year, and that's the only thing that is not driving the markets
* A more realistic look what the Fed is likely to do is to not raise rates, but cut them below zero
* Despite that we're seing all this momentum in the dollar and in gold
* Gold stocks are just soaring, many of these names have been up 5-10% each day in February
* None of this is attracting the attention of Wall Street
* A guest on CNBC today alluded to short covering as the reason for gold going up
* He commented on how lousy the fundamentals are for these stocks
* The fundamentals have never been lousy
* They have appeared lousy because there was so much belief that the dollar would continue to rise because the U.S. is having a genuine recovery and the Fed will continue to raise rates
* The media and Wall Street are still very biased; I was on CNBC Asia last night debating an American guest who touted the strength of the economy based on the strong jobs market, how household balance sheets are better than ever and real incomes are rising
* The only reason homeowners have better balance sheets is because they no longer have a house; home ownership is at a 50 year low
* While gas prices are lower, rents, healthcare and most other costs are going up
* It was an example of how the public ignores all the bad economic news and assumes that the economy is great
* Another writer for CNBC.com attributes gold's rise to low inflation
* He actually said that my explanation about the economy slowing with inflation did not make sense, because in his mind, high inflation is a result of a strong economy
* This is exactly backwards. Strong, productive economies keep prices low
* Weak economies that lack production end up having higher prices, and those weak economies produce budget deficits and the central banks have to print money, causing inflation
* The actual definition of inflation is an expansion of the money supply; higher prices are a result of the fact that the currency then buys less
* The government wants people to be confused about inflation and where it comes from because they are the source of the problem
* By blurring the meaning of inflation, it is easier to shift the blame for economic problems on everything else but monetary policy
* CNBC highlighted my call on gold, but omitted all the correct calls I have made, especially 3 recent market predictions:
* One: if the Fed raises rates, the stock market is going to tank
* Why did I say that the market was going to tank? The conventional wisdom that if the Fed is raising rates, the economy must be stronger - I said if the Fed raises rates it will be doing it into a weak economy. In fact, it probably happened in a recession
* Two: I said that there is no historical precedence for this monetary policy because we have been at zero interest rates for 7 years, so the effect of higher rates on the economy appears to have more effect because they have been talking about tightening for years
* I also said that if the Fed raised rates, gold prices would rise; it was unanimous that gold would collapse. Gold is up more than $100 since the initial knee-jerk sellofPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/5/2016 • 25 minutes, 33 seconds
Dow Tumbles on Cruz Iowa Caucus Win – Ep. 137
* It was another tough day in the stock market today; the Dow Jones finished down 295 points, NASDAQ fared even worse, down 103 points, that's about 2.25%
* These 100-point moves are coming quite often now; in the NASDAQ, the transports were hardest hit once again down 204 points - that's almost 3%
* When I saw this carnage, I wondered if North Korea had tested another nuclear bomb - early in January the market was down about 250 points and they blamed it on the North Korean bomb test
* The markets have been moving about that much every single day! What are the odds that the Korean test had anything to do with the market drop that day?
* Everybody wants to find a way to rationalize a weak market, but look, nothing happened today
* The financials got clobbered - Goldman Sachs is down 5% on the day, getting ready to break through $150; it was a $200 stock not too long ago
* There's a lot of air beneath this chart - is that all oil related?
* You might as well blame today's selloff on the fact that Ted Cruz won the Iowa Caucus
* The reality is the market is going down because it's a bear market
* The market's going down because the U.S. economy is in a recession
* There's nothing the Fed can do without loosing credibility or acknowledge that the economy is much weaker that it thought
* Going back prior to the rate hike, one of the reasons I constantly said I did not expect the Fed to raise rates is because I knew if they did, they would be in a very bad position
* I said, what's going to happen if the Fed raises rates and the stock market starts to decline, how are they going to stop it? They cant.
* Since QE1 in 2009, every time the stock market has faltered the Fed has either launched another round of QE or hinted that it was considering another round
* That's what saved the market
* That how "Buy the Dips" worked - you had the Bernanke put or the Yellen put
* If that put expired with that rate hike in December, then how was the Fed going to stop the carnage?
* It can't hint about another round of quantitative easing while it's raising rates
* Most people believe that the Fed will not raise rates 4 times this year, maybe only once or twice
* But if the market is already collapsing based on the first rate hike, how much lower will it fall if the Fed puts a couple more nails in the coffin?
* The only the Fed can save this market is to come out and:
* a) Take future rate hikes off the table and
* b) Lower rates
* They are trying to get the ECB and the Bank of Japan to help, and that hasn't worked - each rally has reversed
* The Fed will have to get in on this: sending the ECB and the Bank of Japan in will not do it. This is a woman's job, and it's going to be Janet Yellen is the only one who can stop the market from falling
* We're going to get the jobs number this week - with a first look at it with the ADP number tomorrow but we get the big Non-Farm Payroll number on Friday
* The only thing that can really save this market is a horrific jobs number is really bad, then Janet Yellen can talk about not raising rates based on the jobs numbers, so she doesn't have to claim it is based on the stock market
* If we get another on of these good jobs numbers, of course it's only good superficially, it's not really good, it's just a high number, then this market's going to tank
* Because the Fed is back in the predicament of not cutting rates because they don't want to admit that the jobs numbers are bogus
* I happen to be in the supermarket with my 13-year old son and he noticed a help wanted sign on the door, saying, "Part Time Positions Available - Multiple Departments"
* They don't want any more full time people - that is the secret to the "strength" in our econo...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/3/2016 • 32 minutes, 16 seconds
BOJ Goes Negative, 2 Down 1 To Go ! – Ep. 136
* First it was the ECB, and then it was the Bank of Japan, cutting interest rates overnight to -.1%
* That is the first time in this 20-year experiment of cheap money - I think they've been at zero, but they've never gone negative until just now
* One of the most ironic aspects of the move is that Kuroda, just 8 days ago told the Japanese Parliament that the Bank of Japan was not seriously considering negative interest rates, yet in a span of a week, they went from not considering it, to actually doing it!
* In fact, what Kuroda said is that, not only have they moved rates to negative, they may make them even more negative in the future, so no who knows how much more negative they will go
* He also hinted that they might expand their asset purchase program, their own Quantitative Easing
* That was enough to send global stock market rising, in fact, here in the U.S. the Dow Jones finished up almost 400 points - 396 points - the NASDAQ was up better than 100 points
* Obviously this is still a big down month, but not the worse January ever
* As I said from the beginning, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, but it won't work
* The Fed is going to have to join the rate-cutting party
* Right now the Fed is the lone hold-out among central banks and that is still helping the dollar
* The dollar was very strong today against the yen and also against the euro - the dollar index now almost back up to 100
* The QE currencies got clobbered
* The economic data in the U.S. is not good. We got the first estimate of Q4 GDP
* When the year began, everybody was looking for Q4 to be around 2 - 2.5%
* As all the horrible economic news poured in throughout the quarter, expectations gradually reduced so that by yesterday, the consensus for Q4 was just .9%
* We managed to come in below that at .7%
* I have been saying that by the time we get the final revision of this GDP number, we could be below zero. It doesn't take much to take an initial estimate of .7 to below zero and we still have more data on Q4 coming out, that will bear on this, and I think the data will be bad news
* The only way the government could manufacture a GDP of .7 was to pretend that the inflation rate was just .8, and of course, the Fed supposedly have this 2% target and they need to raise rates to get to 2%
* That means nominal GDP is only going up 1.5%, which means if the inflation rate is actually higher than 1.5%, then we are in a contraction
* In fact, I've pointed this out many times before, if we had an honest look at inflation in the GDP, I think it would reveal that the economy has been in recession for almost the entire recovery, which makes more sense to me, because this recovery feels a lot like a recession
* It's not like any other recovery we've ever experienced, and maybe that's because it's not a recovery - it's a recession
* I think the recession is going to get a whole lot worse, because of what's going on
* The way the media has been spinning this all day, even though they have reported that the GDP is .7, they are reporting that for the entire year, GDP grew by 2.4% for 2015.
* Just Google it yourself: any article on the U.S. economy and GDP states that the economy grew by 2.4% in 2015
* That's not true! The actual growth rate is 1.8%
* If the economy grew by 1.8%, why is the media spinning the story at 2.4%?
* Here's what's going on: if you just measure the increase in GDP from December 31, 2014 through December 31 2015, the increase is 1.8%. That is how to measure the GDP. It grew 1.8%.
* The government doesn't want to admit that because 1.8% is a pretty low number, the lowest it's been in 3 years, and why would the Fed wait for the lowest annual growth rate in 3 years to finally raise rates, in fact why did they wait for a quarter when it was...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/30/2016 • 29 minutes, 8 seconds
The Short Lady Has Not Sung Ep.135
* As I said in my last podcast, when the the Federal Reserve issued its press release yesterday at 2:00pm, Janet Yellen did not give the markets they were hoping for; in a way, it was almost as if she threw them an anchor instead, because the Dow Jones ended up falling about 200 points as a result of the disappointing statement
* The statement was dovish, but it wasn't dovish enough, and even though the Dow recovered about half those gains, I think the market is still on the defensive, given the fact that Janet Yellen still did not veer from the projected rate hike path, even though the Fed went out of its way to say that the tightening would be very gradual and that rates would still be low for a long time
* And the Fed will continue reinvesting all all the maturing bonds, so the balance sheet will not shrink at all
* They will continue to reinvest interest and principal payments, meaning the balance sheet will continue to grow, so it's still QE, just a slimmed down version
* But I do expect full-blown QE4 to come before the November election
* I do believe that this is the first step in a reversal of policy because Janet Yellen did acknowledge that economic growth slowed last year
* In fact, it slowed more at the end of the year, as we will see when we get the first look at the Q4 GDP tomorrow; I think the economic slow-down is continuing in 2016
* The Fed also said that they were monitoring the financial and global markets and will take in consideration the effects that these might have on economic growth, inflation and employment
* Obviously, the effects on economic growth are going to be negative - it's the reverse wealth effect
* The Fed puts a lot of stock in the wealth effect, but it's a two-edge sword
* The Fed statement also mentioned that they are still targeting 2% inflation but that they're not quite there, and expressed concern that they might not meet that goal
* To me, acknowledging the economy is slowing, going out of their way to mention that they are monitoring the global economy is an easing from their rhetoric
* The Fed is going to have to do a lot more than that subtle suggestion
* I think it is enough to turn the dollar; it has been weakening across the board today
* Oil prices have moved up a bit
* Gold stocks have actually done a little bit better than gold - gold and silver were both hit today: gold was down about $10/11, silver was down about .30
* There was a huge sell order that came in early in the morning and just knocked the markets down in about a minute, which has been typical
* It looked like the metal was poised to continue to move higher
* We'll see what happens tomorrow when we get the GDP
* But one of the reasons it looked like today should have been a big day for gold was the economic news that came out early this morning on December Durable Goods
* They were looking for a +.2 increase, following a 0% gain in November
* Instead, first they revised the November's number to -.5 and then, instead of improving, we dropped 5.1 - Huge decline!
* You have to go back to the '08 financial crisis to find a Durable Goods that bad
* It gets worse when you look at the details
* Strip out transportation: they were looking for zero, instead we got -1.2
* On top of that, they took last month's -.1 and made it -.5
* The worst one is Core Capital Goods: last month was down .4 and we got -4.3
* Year-over-year Capital Goods is down 7.5%
* So, given this number and the Fed's statement yesterday, I expected gold to build on its momentum, but for that big sell order that happened early in the morning
* The gold stocks held up today, despite the big drop in gold
* I expect a rally tomorrow if we get a weak GDP number, and now a lot of people are looking for a weak...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/29/2016 • 27 minutes, 49 seconds
This Time It’s Different Ep. 134
* The Mario Draghi "No-Limits"-inspired rally from Thursday and Friday of last week ended on Monday with the Dow Jones down just over 200 points; the NASDAQ was down about 75 points, so an even bigger percentage drop
* But today the market reversed; the Dow actually recouped 100% of what it lost, it rose 282 points by the close
* A lot of volatility in the oil markets; down yesterday and up above $30/barrel today
* The bigger action today was in gold, up another $12 or so, the highest price for gold since the first week in November, last year
* Gold stocks had a big up day today, but they still have to rise about 8% to get back to where they were when gold was the price it is today
* Some of the battered down currencies in the commodities space had a good rally; the Canadian dollar and the Aussie dollar
* I think what the markets are preparing for is some type of statement from the Fed tomorrow; they began their 2-day meeting today and they will release a statement - there's no press conference
* People are looking for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge some type of change in the economy and therefore soften their stance on their 2016 rate increase projection
* The last time we heard from Janet Yellen, the Fed was on track for 4 rate hikes in 2016, and since then, no one has said anything to contradict that, despite what has happened in the U.S. and global markets
* Perhaps this recent market rally will give Janet Yellen a reason not to show her hand
* Of course, if she disappoints the markets and continues to pretend everything is great, this market's going down hard and all the gains will be surrendered
* Maybe she'll try to walk a middle ground by acknowledging the problems in China and in the oil market and say that the Fed is monitoring the situation in case there us unexpected spillover to the U.S. economy which is still otherwise in great shape
* She may save face by suggesting that if these outside influences somehow wash up on our shores, and they effect employment and inflation, maybe it will adjust its policy
* I'm not sure if that will be enough for the market; if the market sells off, the Fed is going to have to come back and quickly release more dovish rhetoric
* I read an article on Monday's Wall Street Journal and I posted it on my Facebook pageand it really was the equivalent of, This Time It's Different
* The headline was, "Recession Signals are Flashing Red" - they've been flashing red for a long time and the WSJ has been ignoring it
* The article says that, despite all the bad economic events and data that in the past have led to recession, that this time it's different
* The article tells us why we don't have to worry this time, while acknowledging the bad data and events, they say we can rest easy because we have this really strong labor market, and in prior recessions the labor market wasn't as strong
* Therefore, since the labor is so strong, we can ignore all the other signals that seem to be flashing recession
* I have said many times on this podcast, there is no strong labor market; it exists only in the eyes of statisticians who simply look at a rate of 5% and ignore how we got there
* They want to ignore the millions of people who have left the weak labor market and millions more who have settled for part time jobs
* So the weak labor market is consistent with all the other data that the WSJ is acknowledging, but tells us to ignore
* If we counted all the people outside of the labor market who are discouraged as unemployed, and we also counted all the underemployed people, and the unemployment rate was over 10%, then the WSJ would have to say, "Well, it's a recession!"
* How can a recession wait for the government to decide how it ...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/27/2016 • 29 minutes, 50 seconds
The ECB Rescues The Markets – Ep. 133
* The U.S. stock market ended the week with a 2-day rally, in fact the Dow Jones closed better than 200 points today, to about 1690
* NASDAQ, even stronger, up 119, closing at almost back up to 4600
* The rally actually began early yesterday morning, and not just in stocks
* Oil had a huge rally, in fact, today alone, crude was up $2.72 back above $30, at $32.25
* What sparked the rally was comments made by Mario Draghi at an ECB press conference that followed their official statement that they were leaving interest rates unchanged - they are already negative
* Right about that time, the Dow futures were already down 100 points and it wasn't looking good for the open of the U.S. stock market
* But then, in Draghi's press conference, he said there was no limit to what the ECB is prepared to do to generate more inflation in Europe
* He strongly hinted that in the next meeting in March, they may announce additional stimulus
* He saw the weakness in the markets and decided to take one for the Fed, because ultimately it's the Federal Reserve who has to come out with the "Whatever it takes" comment" to shore up the markets
* I don't think the ECB is going to be enough, even if Japan joins the party, it won't be a real party until the Federal Reserve shows up
* This was enough to cause a small, short-covering rally
* What's interesting, though, about the Draghi comments, is that he specifically addressed the problems of low oil prices and low food prices
* Do you think the population of Europe worries that food is too inexpensive?
* Is it really so important that gas is more expensive in Europe?
* None of these are real concerns, and the proof is, if they really wanted the prices to be higher, they could just adjust the Value Added Tax to increase prices to exactly 2%
* Why print all this money, hoping that the result is higher gas prices?
* The truth is, the price of gas and food in Europe is not the problem - Mario Draghi knows its not the problem
* He wants to create inflation to prop up the equity markets
* But the press takes Draghi at his word, that inflation is the problem
* Stock prices are the prices they are worried about being too low
* They also want more inflation to mitigate the effect of government-mandated higher wages
* So the one motivating factor behind Draghi's comments was not food or gas prices
* Obviously lower food and gas prices help the European economy
* All the markets went up on the hint that the ECB is going to further stimulate the economy
* That proves that the only reason the stock market has rallied is because the central banks - it's not about the fundamentals
* The Fed will have to capitulate and acknowledge that more stimulus is coming
* The press is focusing on the idea that the Fed will slow down its initial goal of 4 rate hikes in 2016
* But that's not enough
* If the Fed tightens more slowly, and the ECB and Japan are easing, then the story is still about the tighter U.S. monetary policy vs Europe and Japan, which will continue to create the global problem of a high U.S. dollar
* We aren't going to get drunk on Europe's liquor - we need our own bartender pouring the drinks
* Is it enough to get a short-covering rally? Sure.
* Nothing goes down in a straight line
* We don't know that Draghi will actually deliver stimulus in March. What if the price of oil goes up above $40/barrel before then?
* Mario Draghi went out of his way to praise Janet Yellen, agreeing with the Fed's December rate hike decision
* Ironically, the U.S. economy is doing better than Europe, but the U.S. economic data is getting worse, and in Europe it is improving
* By the time all the revisions are done,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/23/2016 • 23 minutes, 56 seconds
It Looks Like a Recession Because It Is One – Ep. 132
* The bear market in global stocks continues, and I believe we're in a bear market in the U.S.
* Technically the major averages are not quite down 20%, although some of the averages are
* Transports were down 30% from their highs
* The Russell 2000 was down more than 25%
* Many individual sectors are way down into bear market territory, as are some individual stocks
* IBM hit a new 6-year low; and, of course, IBM is the poster boy for share buy-backs
* Imagine how much shareholder money has been flushed down the toilet buying back stock at over $200/sh and now we're looking at 12o and falling
* But remember: all bear markets begin as corrections
* The bear market of 2001, when the S&P was cut in half, and the NASDAQ fell by 80%, started as a correction
* The same thing in 2008 - they were calling that a correction, too, until they realized that it was a bear market
* In fact, the main thing I am hearing today is the comeback - the Dow had a huge comeback because it was down more than 560 points at the low and it closed down at just 249
* The NASDAQ was down more than 160 and it closed down only 5
* Had we closed at the lows of the day maybe we would be closer to a short-term bottom
* This is another short-covering inter-day rally creating a slippery slope of hope for the market to continue to slide down
* Today, we have hit the most 52-week lows in any month since September of 2008
* Earlier in the day, we were showing the biggest monthly point drop in the history of the stock market
* It's not just the worst January, it's the worst month of any year, ever
* The market has got to be telling us that not only are we in a bear market, but we are in a recession
* The market is forward-looking: it is telling us that we are in a recession
* The bond market is priced as if we are in a recession
* Maybe that is because we are in a recession
* All the economic data indicates a severe recession
* The market is behaving as though something bad is happening - we haven't seen action like this since 2008, yet people are dismissing all of this evidence
* If it walks like a recession, quacks like a recession, smells like a recession, it is a recession
* There are now more people acknowledging that the Fed should not continue raising rates in the near future - an article in the Guardian says:"Janet Yellen and Fed left with face full of egg after interest rate rise blunder" accuses the Fed of raising rates too early
* The problem isn't that they raised rates early, it is that they raised them too late
* Actually the real problem is that they never should have lowered rates to zero in the first place
* I said this from the beginning: They sealed their fate as soon as they dropped rates to zero - no matter when they raised rates it would be a disaster, and the longer they waited it would be a disaster
* What is ridiculous is that the Fed wants us to believe that they can raise rates, after leaving them at zero for so long, and that we could sometime just be fine
* The narrative that Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and the Obama administration have been selling is that they saved the economy
* The economy is in much worse shape now than it was 7 years ago
* Instead the Fed's poisonous cure made us sicker than ever - That is what I wrote in "Crash Proof"
* When I forecasted the bursting of the real estate bubble and the Great Recession and financial crisis, I said the economy could withstand that
* What would kill it was the Fed's cure, they came up with the exact remedy I was afraid they would and it is having this exact effect
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/21/2016 • 29 minutes, 21 seconds
Fed’s Denial Risks More Than Its Credibility Ep.131
* The Dow Jones ended another down week on a down note, dropping 390 points
* The NASDAQ was down 126 points
* This is the worst January in the history of the stock market the Dow is off about 13% from its highs, the NASDAQ about 15%, firmly in correction territory
* We are probably in a bear market right now, because ultimately these indexes will be down 20%
* Some indexes are already firmly in the bear camp; the transportation average is down about 27.5%; the Russel 2000 is down aboutr 23%
* Many sectors are in a bear market - the auto market, retailers, financials
* Home builders not quite in bear market territory yet but they are at 4-year lows
* Beneath the sectors there are many individual stocks that are down 30 - 80% - GoPro now down 82% from last year as a highly touted IPO
* Yesterday we had about a 200 point rally because the Fed's Dudley, who saved the market in October of 2014 by hinting of QE4 causing the market to take off
* This time, Bullard came out and did say something dovish, but not dovish enough, and did not want to say there was something wrong with the economy, so he simply stated that oil prices were too low and inflation might not rise quickly enough, so the Fed should hike more slowly
* Today, another Fed governor came out, William Dudley and contradicted Bullard, strongly optimistic, saying the market is going to grow above trend in 2016 and he said that some of the negative economic data that has come out recently (which may qualify as the understatement of the decade) should be ignored, in the context of a strong labor market
* In other words, no matter what other negative data is out there, in the markets or in the economy, as long as we're still creating 200,000-300,000 mostly low-paying, part time jobs monthly, everything is fine
* If everything is fine, and there are so many people with jobs, why are retail sales plunging? Why are corporate earnings plunging?
* Assuming all these jobs really exist, they won't for long because if sales and earnings are collapsing, what are companies going to do with their work force?
* Walmart announced today they are closing about 150 stores in the U.S., laying off about 10,000 people
* I have saying for a while I expected retailers to announce significant layoffs, but I think it is going to be across the board
* Everything that was built on the Fed's bubble is imploding; all the phony wealth that was the result of QE is disappearing rapidly
* It's amazing that the Federal Reserve believes in the wealth effect on the way up, but somehow it is oblivious to it on the way down
* I think it is going to work even stronger in reverse; the amount of spending from cut backs will produce a reverse effect even larger than the one they tried to create with QE and zero percent interest rates
* How could Bullard, in the face of all this negative economic data say that since the Fed raised rates, his outlook on the economy has not diminished at all?
* It's so ridiculous that he must not believe it - he is trying to pretend that everything is good
* The whole rate hike was about instilling confidence
* Based on the data, they should not have hiked rates
* Now, as the markets are imploding and the data is getting worse, Dudley is out there saying everything is great
* How much longer can he get away with saying that?
* Pretty soon, he is not going to have that much credibility
* That's what is going on with the Fed, in fact JP Morgan today pushed back their estimate for the first rate hike in 2016 from March to June
* That's how is started last year; everybody was looking for a rate hike, in March, then June then September, then they finally got it in December and now people are already dialing back estimates of the next rate hike
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/16/2016 • 34 minutes, 28 seconds
Obama Delivers the Most Clueless SOTU Address Ever – Ep.130
* Last night I watched President Obama deliver the State of the Union Speech and probably the only good thing about the speech is that it was his last one
* It will probably go down in history as the most clueless State of the Union Address ever
* All he talked about was how great the economy is - how he created all these jobs
* He even had the chutzpah to take credit for reducing the budget deficit!
* President Obama will have doubled the national debt during his presidency
* He added more debt than every president from George Washington to George Bush, combined, yet he's taking credit for reducing the deficit
* At least when George Bush gave his final State of the Union Address he acknowledged problems brewing in the economy
* He acknowledged concerns being addressed by the American people and validated them
* He talked about the stimulus plan he had, which I did not agree with, but at least he knew the economy was in some trouble
* Although he acknowledged that economic growth was slowing and that housing was down, he didn't come close to preparing Americans for what was about to unfold by the middle of the year
* In fact, when the President delivered that State of the Union Address, the economy was already in recession, although the government had not acknowledged it yet
* He had no idea how precarious the state of the economy was, we were on the precipice of a big cliff and he was still optimistic, long term, but cautious given the slowdown in the economy and he wanted to come up with some kind of stimulus to mitigate the slowdown
* He did not foresee or warn about the severity of the problem, but at least he acknowledged some problem
* In contrast, rather than at least acknowledging weakness in the economy, President Obama claims victory over the Great Recession, that he restored economic health and vitality
* The few problems in the economy are beyond his control because the economy is changing
* What we do need is more government money for education, to train people for this new economy, we need a higher minimum wage, we need higher taxes on the rich, but other than that everything is great
* President Obama's State of the Union Address is on the order of magnitude more clueless that George W. Bush's last SOTU on the eve of the Great Recession
* We are now on the eve of a collapse even greater, yet President Obama is saying everything is awesome
* What President Obama did is to lecture the American people as to why they have nothing to be concerned about - basically saying that anyone who says that the economy is in decline is peddling fiction.
* Obviously the people who don't recognize the decline in our economy are in denial, or have a political agenda
* What the President said is, "If you think the economy is headed in the wrong direction, if you think America is in decline, you're wrong, it's just that the economy is changing
* Remember, you voted for me and I promised change
* It's changing because it's getting worse, that's the change
* President Obama points to technology as the problem in the economy - a transition that only makes you feel like you're falling behind even though you're not
* The technological revolution did not begin with the election of President Obama
* It has been no more transformative, even less so, than the industrial revolution
* Machines put a lot more people out of work than computers but we saw an expanding labor force, but women left the labor force, because their husbands started making more money
* Real wages were rising
* The industrial revolution took place in a free market economy
* The technological revolution is taking place in a government controlled economy
* The reason so many people are suffering is not because so many techno...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/13/2016 • 29 minutes, 1 second
Deja Vu All Over Again – SchiffReport January 8, 2016
* Hi everybody, this is Peter Schiff and I am recording this on Friday, January 8, and Wall Street just finished the worst opening week to a new year in the history of the stock market
* The Dow Jones was down another 1% on Friday to finish the week better than 1,000 points - it was a 6% decline on the week
* Now there have been weeks that have been down more than 6% in the history of the stock market, in fact we had one about 4 years ago, but we've never had a week this bad in the first week of January
* Now, the financial media is coming up with all sorts of excuses to blame this big decline on
* On Monday, they were blaming the sell-off on the rumors that North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb
* But for most of the week, they were blaming the sell-off of the U.S. stock market on the sell-off in China, despite the fact that China rallied on Friday and we sold off
* The Chinese market was down about 10% on the week, despite the Friday rally
* The U.S. stock market is not falling because of the Chinese stock market. The Chinese stock market and the U.S. stock market are falling for the same reason
* It's not that one is causing the other, they're both going down and the reason they're falling is because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December and they are threatening to raise them at least 4 more times, according to the most recent minutes.
* The belief that the Fed is going to keep raising rates is putting pressure on the Chinese currency, the Yuan, to decline along with a lot of other currencies that have already fallen substantially against the dollar, on the anticipation of higher interest rates
* It's the weakness in the Chinese currency that is pulling down the Chinese market, but it's all because of the Fed - but that's the same reason we're going down
* If you remember, all year I was saying that I didn't think the Fed was going to raise rates at all in 2015, and the reasons were:
* I thought thee economy would not be able to handle it - the Fed always claimed that they were data dependent and I thought they were hiding behind that, but I though they could use the weak data, which had been coming all year, as cover for not raising rates - in fact, that was their cover until they backed themselves into a corner because they had promised to raise rates by the end of the year and a refusal to raise rates would be an admission that the economy was weaker than forecasted
* I also said I didn't think the market could handle a rate hike. It had stopped rising based on the absence of QE, but if the Fed actually increased rates, the air would come out of the bubble a lot faster
* So with the economy going down and the stock market going down, I thought the next thing they would do is reduce rates back to zero and launch QE4 and would look like complete fools
* So by not raising rates, they would look like a lesser fool by acknowledging that the economy needed additional stimulus
* We may already be in a recession
* The Atlanta Fed has already downgraded their forecast for 2015 Q4 to just .8%
* I think by the time we get the first estimate on the 29th the month, we could actually have a negative number for the fourth quarter
* If you look at all the data that's coming in, and I'll get to that in a minute, we can easily have a negative first quarter of 2016, and we're in recession
* If the economy is in recession, and we are in or close to a bear market in stocks, and without the Fed, there's nothing to stop this market from falling, the Fed will have to come to the rescue of both the economy and the market with QE
* But if you remember, a lot of analysts were very sanguine about the market's ability to handle a rate hike, but here we are, the Fed raised rates just a few weeks ago, and the Dow has dropped better than 1,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/9/2016 • 28 minutes, 59 seconds
Fallout From the Fed Not North Korea Shocked the Markets – Ep. 129
* Well the Dow Jones got clobbered again today, down 252 points at the close
* The NASDAQ down about 55
* The transports continue to get clobbered down another 146 points, decisively in bear market territory
* CNBC blamed the entire decline on jitters over North Korea's hydrogen bomb test
* I admit that this prospect is not good, but I don't believe that announcement was the reason for the decline
* The real problem is the Fed removing the monetary herion from the addicts on Wall Street and this is the withdrawal
* Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, spoke on CNBC yesterday and he admitted that the Fed "engineered a stock market rally"
* They wanted all this phony wealth to cause us to make irrational decisions
* That's what happened during the dot com bubble and to a greater extent during the housing bubble
* Here you have it from the words of a former Fed president, a voting member who voted for QE 1 & 2 who is saying that the Fed did this to create a "wealth effect"
* He even said, don't be surprised if the market goes down 20% - it's still overvalued - he admits the Fed was propping it up
* Obviously if the Fed removes the props the market will go down
* After Simon Hobbs asked Fisher if he is going to apologize, he said," Don't blame me, I voted against QE3!"
* He is throwing his colleagues, including Janet Yellen, under the bus
* Now that he is no longer at the Fed, he refers to it as a "giant weapon that is out of ammunition"
* The Fed still has ammo: cut rates (in this case, even to negative) and QE4, their big bazooka
* There's plenty of ammo left and it will be fired a lot sooner than people think
* Korea is an excuse, but Richard Fisher is letting the cat out of the bag, but no one in the media is picking up on this
* Also in the markets today, while stocks were going down, gold was going up - gold hit a 2-month high today
* As fast as it is going up in dollars, it is going up even faster in other currencies, like the Canadian dollar, which hit a 9-year low, the Australian dollar
* The yen was up - the dollar/yen is breaking down - to me that is a very scary proposition for the markets to see this strength in the Japanese yen
* Oil prices continued to drop, down another $2 today - we're trading below $34
* Gold stocks were up - you'd think they would be up a lot more because mining costs are plunging and revenue is going up, but Wall Street is oblivious to the bargains that exist in the mining stocks
* We got a lot of economic news today and most of it was, as is typically the case, bad
* Yesterday vehicle sales were at a 6-month low
* Last year was a record for auto sales, but December was a 6-month low despite all the Christmas giveaways
* Meanwhile the inventory to sales ratio continues to rise - a new high since the 2008-2009 great recession
* Also GM got clobbered today, down about 4% - already down 9% for the year and down more than 20% from its 52-wk high - that is a bear market
* This is telling me that the auto bubble has popped
* There are going to be a lot of layoffs in the auto sector - good, high-paying jobs
* I have said that starting in January 2016 we would start to see layoffs because the numbers have been horrible
* Sure enough, Macy's today announced a restructuring, laying off thousands of workers because of disappointing sales throughout the year
* We will see a huge blow-up in the securitized market for auto loans
* They layoffs are coming - the low unemployment number is the rear view mirror
* Looking at the actual economy in the windshield is a disaster for jobs
* This is deja vu - in 2008 the subprime market had already exploded - the housing market problems should have bee...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/7/2016 • 32 minutes, 35 seconds
Stocks Start Year With Biggest Drop in 84 Years – Ep. 128
* The U.S. stock market opened the first trading day of 2016 with a bang, but not the type of bang the bulls were hoping for
* The Dow was down 276 points-it was down as much as 450 points in the last hour of trading
* In fact,we opened down 300 and change and we hung around the down 350 - 400, in fact down 276, at the close was about the best level of the day
* The NASDAQ closed down around 104
* The Dow Jones transports continues to get crushed - the weakest index on the day, down 156 points
* We're now down more than 20% from last year's high, officially in bear market territory in the Dow Jones transportation - and don't blame this on weak oil prices because transports benefit from weak oil prices
* This is all about weakness in the economy
* A lot of the carnage was blamed on China because China was down 7% overnight, the worst first day of the year in the history of Chinese stocks
* Supposedly the catalyst was a weaker than expected PMI in China - I don't believe for a second that the market was down 7% based on that report
* First, there were two PMI's released, and one was slightly better than estimates and the one that was slightly below came in at 48.2 vs. expectation of 49
* I think the Chinese market would have gone down regardless of the PMI numbers
* The irony of it is that our own recently-released Chicago PMI on New Year's Eve and our number was way worse than the Chinese number
* We were expecting 50, an improvement from 48.7 - instead we went down to 42.9
* Bad economic news in China creates a terrible response, but bad economic news in the U.S. and no one even cares!
* Why, because the Fed tells us everything is awesome and we can ignore all the evidence that the economy is far from awesome
* Singapore reported a 5.7% increase in GDP for its 4th quarter, yet that number is being discounted
* Yet no one wants to believe the good news from foreign governments, and no one believes bad news from the U.S. because the Fed's narrative is still out there
* We got more bad economic news today: We got another PMI manufacturing number expected to be 52.8, it came in at 51.2
* Even worse was the December ISM number - last month was 48.6 - it was expected to improve to 49.2- instead, it dropped to 48.2
* That's a bigger miss than China, yet no one here cared
* Also, construction spending was a huge miss: the consensus was for a gain of .7; instead we lost .4
* It gets worse, because last month the gain was expected to be a full point
* The numbers that came out today were so bad that the Atlanta Fed, who recently revised down its Q4 GDP forecast from 1.9 to 1.3 a week or so ago and today they went down to .7
* In my last podcast, I said that soon the Atlanta Fed is going to take their Q4 GDP estimate below 1 and that is just what they did
* We have a lot more bad economic data that is going to come out between now and the end of the month when we get the first estimate of Q4 GDP and there's a pretty good chance that it will be negative, which is halfway to a recession
* With a negative GDP in the 4th quarter, we have a better than 50/50 chance of having another negative GDP in the first quarter and that would put us officially in a recession
* Just in time for the Fed to raise interest rates again - Not!
* More people are coming to the same conclusion I have for a long time now, that the Fed had backed themselves into a corner and felt they had to raise rates regardless of the fact that the data didn't meet their criteria
* I knew that if the Fed raised interest rates that they would regret it because they would have to reverse their direction based on the weak economy combined with a weak market
* Interestingly, there has only been one year ending in "5",Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/5/2016 • 23 minutes, 52 seconds
Bubbles Popping On Wall Street This New Year’s Eve – Ep. 127
* Let me begin my final podcast of 2015 by wishing all of my listeners a Happy New Year
* It certainly wasn't a happy New Year's Eve Day on Wall Street
* Normally the last day of the year is a positive one; you normally have a Santa Clause rally and it continues on to New Year's Eve
* That wasn't the case today. The Dow Jones finished its first down year since 2008 - down 178 points
* The S&P also negative on the year, the NASDAQ managed to gain about 5% or so
* I'm hearing a lot of people blaming the weakness on oil prices
* The transports were the weakest index of the year, I think they were down about 17% and this index stood to gain the most from low oil prices
* So clearly, if transports are the weakest index, the overall weakness can't be solely because of oil prices
* It has to be another reason, and I think it has to be the economy
* Oil is being affected by weakness in the economy
* Another interesting observation about today's selloff - the market not only closed on the lows, but made its lows on the close
* We've been seeing this volatility - all of this selling into the close says that something big is going on here
* You get more professionals selling when you sell market on close, and I think this is what is going on here
* People are bracing for a very weak 2016
* The Fed had interest rates for all of 2015 - it didn't raise rates until the waning weeks of the year
* Imagine how the Dow will contend with the threat of rising interest rates as 2016 continues
* But the other problem for 2016 is the economy and we got more evidence of an extremely weak economy
* I mentioned before the the Atlanta Fed GDP Now has Q4 GDP estimate down to 1.3
* Based on the numbers we got today, they are going to ratcheting those estimates down again
* First, we got the weekly unemployment numbers, which have been low for a long time - We got the biggest unemployment claims numbers in one week in 10 months
* The 4-week moving average is also the highest it has been in 5 months
* Remember, when Yellen raised interest rates, the basis for the decision was supposed to be the strength in the labor market
* No sooner did the Fed raise rates based on the labor market, but now the labor market is rolling over.
* Unemployment is a lagging indicator
* What is more indicative of what is coming, is the Chicago PMI number which came out a little later in the morning, which was abysmal
* One of the worst economic reports of the entire year
* Last month, we got 48.7, which was below expectation
* They were looking for a December bounceback to 50
* Instead, the index crashed down to 42.9
* This is the lowest number since 2009
* Order backlogs has been down for 11 months in a row, and this is the worst performance since 1951
* The only time we've been at this level is during a recession
* It is possible that we are in a recession
* It is possible that they will originally report Q4 GDP as positive and then go back later in the year and revise the data to show we were in a recession
* That's what they did with the Great Recession
* Another reason I believe the economy is weaker than the numbers suggest is because the inflation rate is being under-reported
* If the inflation rate is higher than the GDP deflator, then obviously we are in a contraction during most of this recovery
* I am looking at what is happening in the economy not in what the government says about the economy
* As bad as the numbers were, it did not promote any reaction in the the markets
* My guess is that if we had had a big drop in unemployment claims or a really good PMI number the dollar would have spiked up and gold would have sold off,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/31/2015 • 26 minutes, 51 seconds
CNBC Calls Me Out on Gold – Ep. 126
* Recording this podcast on Monday afternoon; the stock market closed about an hour ago, and the stock market was up over 100 points today, but the more dramatic days happened on Thrusday and Friday
* Despite the initial euphoric increase in the stock market that greeted the Fed's highly anticipated quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday the market tanked on Thursday and Friday, down over 600 points
* The most significant part of the sell-offs is that on both days the markets closed on the lows for the day
* The Fed is getting dangerously close to losing what remains of its credibility
* The Credibility Bubble might be the first to deflate in this recession
* The Fed has been saying that the economy would be strong enough for a rate hike by the end of the year, so if they did not raise rates in December it would have been an admission that they were wrong
* The Fed raised rates even though the economic data showed that, based on their own criteria, they should not have done it
* More and more people are questioning whether the Fed has made a policy mistake
* Look at the data that came out since the rate hike:
* On Friday we got the PMI Flash Services Index came out at 53.7 - last month it was 56.5
* The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing - last month was +1 and December was -8
* Today we got the Chicago Fed National Activity, expected to be +.15 for November, instead it came out at -.3 and they revised down the prior month to -.17
* With all the horrible economic data, horrible retail sales, horrible corporate earnings it is obvious that the U.S. economy is heading toward recession
* As the economy slows and the Fed is forced to admit it was wrong, there goes it's credibility
* This coming collapse is the culmination of decades of bad monetary policy
* Where we really went off the rails was in the Greenspan era, which sent us off on this trajectory of loose money
* Yellen admitted in her recent press conference that they will still roll over all the maturing bonds and re-investing all the interest on those bonds so the Fed's balance sheet will continue to grow
* The bubble economy will blow up in her face, though, because the market will not be able to withstand a sustained correction and it will require unprecedented quantitative easing that will result in failure
* I wanted to discuss on this podcast an Sunday eening article on CNBC, "The Peter Meter" that really took me to task on my gold predictions
* They did not look at any of my many accurate predictions; they focused on the ones that haven't worked out
* They singled me out for criticism on an 2012 interview I did with them when gold was at $1,700 and I said it could go to $5,000. I never put a time horizon on my prediction, but this was labled as one of the worst
* Back in 2005 I did an interview with Mark Haynes when gold was still below 500 and it more than tripled from that price
* You can see articles I wrote recommending gold back in 2003 when gold was even below 500.
* It is true that I did not see the near 40% correction in the price of gold because I thought the market would see past the bubbles
* CNBC claims my prediction to be among the least prescient ever made
* Twice in the last 15 years the U.S. stock market lost more than half its value
* Anybody who was on CNBC in 1999 and recommended the stock market, which was about every guest, made a worse prediction than that
* Every guest on CNBC in 2007 and 2008 and recommended the stock market made a worse prediction
* What about all the dot com stocks that went to zero?
* Obviously, CNBC is singling my gold prediction out above these other significantly less prescient predictions
* If you look at all the predictions on CNBC over the years,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/22/2015 • 28 minutes, 22 seconds
Janet Yellen Gets Nuts – Ep. 125
* Yesterday, the Federal Reserve finally met market expectations and increased interest rates to .25%
* Actually, the official rate was 0 - .25 and now, the official rate is .25 to .5
* The actual rate was always in the middle between zero and .25
* Assuming the Fed tries to keep the rate closer to .25 than .5, the actual increase in rates could be less than 25 basis points
* The initial reaction to this rate hike is to proclaim the end of the era of "cheap money"
* .25% is still cheap money. Alan Greenspan never went below 1%.
* Some people are saying "Peter Schiff was wrong" because the Fed did raise rates
* Actually, in a recent podcast I noted that the Fed changed their narrative away from "data dependent" to an expression of faith in the economy, opening the door to a symbolic rate hike unsupported by data
* I was alone throughout the year believing that the Fed would not raise rates prior to this change in narrative
* The Fed was afraid that to not raise rates this year, it would be a vote of "no confidence" in the economy
* Ultimately, the Fed felt that even though the data didn't justify it, they had to raise rates because of psychological damage to the markets
* If the economy were really sound, we would not need Janet Yellen to express confidence in the economy - a strong economy creates its own confidence.
* We don't need propaganda in the form of a symbolic rate hike
* The Fed did not even have the last recession in their forecast until we were well into the recession, so who cares about the Fed's level of confidence?
* In an earlier podcast, I referred to Ben Bernanke's comment that he felt he was a representative of the administration
* Janet Yellen is creating a sense of confidence in the economy for the same reason
* The Fed is now pretending that we will have more rate hikes in the future, forecasting 4 more hikes during 2016
* I believe the economy is not strong enough to accommodate these rate hikes and neither does Janet Yellen
* The ultimate irony is the data that came out the morning of the rate hike
* Industrial Production: they were forecasting a drop of .2, which is still bad, instead, we got a drop of .6
* The PMI Manufacturing Index was the lowest in many years, 51.3 down from 52.6
* More bad news: The Philadelphia Fed last month showed an increase of 1.9, so 1.2 was forcasted - instead we dropped 5.9
* These numbers show an economy that is decelerating
* If you look at a chart, these numbers are about to crash even lower
* These numbers are flashing recession, recession, recession
* If you're a Keynsenian, the prescription for the condition this economy has would be stimulus, not an interest rates
* The air was coming out of this bubble anyway, all the Fed did was increase the hole for the air to come out
* The market was up just before the hike, which was interpreted as a green light to raise rates. I said in an earlier podcast that that would be a mistake, because the market would then tank, and that is what happened today
* Transports have been the weakest of all, despite oil prices
* We continue to see weakness in the high-yield bond market as the air is coming out of that bubble
* It is probable that the stock market is going to get a lot worse between now and the time the Fed is supposed to hike rates again
* But the problem for the Fed now, is if the market starts to tank now, they can't do anything until the jobs numbers begin to show weakness
* Janet Yellen actually referred to this move as "ahead of the curve", meaning that if she waited any longer, she would overshoot on her objectives:
* One was unemployment. How can that get too low? Especially with so many people out of the labor market,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/18/2015 • 32 minutes, 47 seconds
Is the Fed Playing Chicken With the Stock Market? – Ep. 124
* The U.S. stock market finished up its worst week since August, when everybody though a rate hike was just around the corner
* Substantial triple-digit losses across the board
* The Dow Jones closed down 309 points - almost 4%
* Similar percentage decline for the S&P 500
* The NASDAQ dropped 111 points, over 4% decline for the week
* The media is blaming this decline on oil prices, and yes, oil prices are weighing on some stocks
* Some stocks benefit from lower oil prices - case in point: transportation
* Dow Transport was weaker than any other index - down more than the markets on a percentage basis
* The truth is that oil prices and stock prices are going down for the same reason
* The reason is a slower growing global economy, including the U.S. economy, and the fact that the Fed is threatening to slow it down further with an interest rate hike
* Some of biggest losers are not even in the stock market, but in the bond market
* The high-yield bond market is getting obliterated
* A chunk of the high yield market is energy companies
* Two things are hurting them: the fear of rising interest rates and the slowing of the U.S. economy
* We are heading for a recession, if we are not already in one
* This does not bode well for the high-yield bond market, because in a recession these companies will have more trouble servicing their debt
* The Fed's monetary policy of zero percent interest rates forced a lot of Americans into these high-yield bonds - people are hungry for yield
* A lot of risky companies who did not have access to credit, were able to borrow all sorts of money because of this hunger for yield
* This is the same thing that happened in the sub-prime market
* Customers all over the world needed yield, and the mortgage market was where they got it
* There was so much demand for mortgage debt on Wall Street it was easy for non-credit-worthy customers to get a loan
* The same thing is happening in this high-yield market. Carl Icahn was on CNBC on Friday morning, referring to the present situation as a "power keg"
* It is a powder keg that the Federal Reserve created and in theory they will light the match if they raise interest rates next week
* In fact in my last podcast I mentioned that for the first time, the Fed might actually raise rates, and I received quite a few comments asking me if I was ready to admit that I was wrong
* The Fed is trying to change the nature of a rate hike - alter the narrative away from normalization to a one-and-done scenario
* Markets anticipate future events and they price them in, so the beginning of the tightening - "liftoff" I felt markets would look toward the eventual destination and start pricing that in.
* None of the markets can handle that
* So the Fed assured the markets that liftoff didn't matter because the first hike will be small and the trajectory will be very low
* That's why I called it a trial balloon. The Fed wanted to see how the markets would respond to a tiny, symbolic rate hike just to prove we can do it, and then a long period of time, before another one, if there is another one
* Initially it looked as if the markets was buying the idea, but remember I kept saying there is time, and the markets could decline - in fact that is already happening
* Maybe the Fed's trial balloon is not going to go over very well
* We had a "Black Monday" in August prior the potential September rate hike
* We have another Black Monday coming up - the technicals on the market look awful
* We could have a huge decline on Monday, and you'd better believe the stock market is going to be high on the Fed's agenda
* When the Fed called off the rate hike last time and we got a huge bounce in the stock marketPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/12/2015 • 28 minutes, 10 seconds
Data Be Damned, Rate Hike Ahead?
* We are just about a week away from the Federal Reserve's first rate increase in about 10 years
* Everybody believes the stage is set for liftoff based on the most recent better than expected Non-Farms Payroll report
* The idea is that the only thing preventing the Fed from liftoff would have been a horrific jobs number
* In fact the markets estimated 190,000 jobs added and we got 211,000
* We did beat estimates, and in fact they revised last month's number up to 298,000
* The unemployment rate held steady at 5%
* This was not a strong report, any way you look at it
* The labor force participation rate: 62.5% is just one-tenth of a percent from the lowest level since the mid-1970's
* That is still going in the wrong direction
* We had the biggest surge in involuntary part-time workers - 300,000 new workers really wanted full time employment - the biggest jump in more than 3 years
* Janet Yellen has consistently stated until recently that before moving up interest rates she wanted to see improvement in the job market, specifically in participation and full-time vs part-time jobs
* Thus far that has not happened
* So why does everybody believe that the Fed is about to raise interest rates regardless of its stated criteria?
* I believed that the Fed had no intention of raising rates and I believe they did not, except one thing has changed: they have backed themselves into a corner
* They have floated some trial balloons as a litmus test
* One change of rhetoric occurred during Yellen's press conference last week as she switched from waiting for the data to improve to confidence that it will improve some time in the next year
* Another change is the idea that a rate hike would trigger a series of hikes with the goal of normalizing interest rates
* That's why they were calling it liftoff
* Now, since the markets tanked after September did not deliver a liftoff, the Fed Chair has changed her tune - liftoff does not matter, the trajectory does
* She may be saying, don't worry, if we raise rates, there won't be another one any time soon, meaning it would be the end of the tightening cycle
* The beginning of tightening during the taper, and if we get a rate hike it will end that process
* If this is just a trivial rate hike, why raise rates at all, considering the fact that the data is still bad?
* Manufacturing is already in a recession
* The ISM number that came out last week hit a 6-year low and even the service sector ISM missed estimates
* Retail sales and consumer confidence have been disappointing, indicating the end of this weak recovery which is actually a bubble
* The Fed now feels their credibility is on the line - it is a symbolic gesture to show confidence in the economy
* If they were truly confident, they would not assure everybody that the rate hikes are not likely to continue
* In 2016 we will be in a recession unless the Fed does something to delay its onset, and it may be too late for them to put out the fire they have already lit
* Why does Janet Yellen not say she believes the economy is still weak?
* A window into Yellen's perception is an interview that Ben Bernanke gave on Freakonomics yesterday. It's entertaining, but it doesn't tell you anything new about Ben Bernanke
* The most important revelation occurred about halfway through the interview when the interviewer played some clips of Bernanke on television in 2005-2006.
* During those clips, Bernanke was talking about the great shape the economy was in, minimizing the housing and mortgage market troubles
* The interviewer asked how he felt listening to himself now,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/8/2015 • 30 minutes, 34 seconds
Draghi Fails To Deliver. Will Yellen Be Next? – Ep. 123
* Mario Draghi of the ECB sent shockwaves through the foreign exchange and currency markets today
* He didn't deliver the stimulus traders expected
* The big question is, will Janet Yellen surprise the market by failing to raise rates?
* The ECB did slightly lower interest rates, and extended QE if it will be needed
* Draghi's goal is inflation
* He equates 2% inflation to "price stability", when prices in Europe are stable now
* The big divergence that everybody is trading on a tightening in the U.S. at the same time Europe continues to ease
* The reality is more likely to be the reverse
* If anything, the European recovery is just getting started, and the U.S. recession is just getting started
* As a result of Draghi's decision to hold off on stimulus, the euro was up more than 3% on the day
* The dollar was weak across the board
* The stock market, including the DAX, fell accordingly
* Both U.S. stocks and bonds experienced a selloff
* Cheap money has been fueling rallies all over the world and when the ECB did not deliver it triggered a selloff in the U.S. assets
* The Dow rallied over 2000 points off its September low based on rate hike expectations that did not materialize
* We also got a key reversal in gold
* Overnight it made a new low, but closed substantially above that level
* The euro is still weak, it is just not as weak as the market expected
* The best environment for gold when the weakest currency is the dollar
* I wanted to address Janet Yellen's testimony today responding to questions
* Yesterday, Yellen referred to Q4 GDP forecast consensus as 2-1/2%
* She did not even realize that on that same day the Atlanta Fed reduced their forecast down to 1.4%
* I think the real shocker will be that the Europea Q4 GDP will realize greater growth than the U.S.
* Yellen was asked about Citibank's recent projection that the U.S. will experience a recession in 2016
* Obviously, she can't agree with the projection, as this runs contrary to the Fed's rhetoric
* Asked as a followup, what tools the Fed would use in the event we did experience a recession in 2016, Yellen responded that the Fed would all the tools it has always had
* She said, if we did raise rates, then we would lower them
* Plus, she said it could use the asset purchase program (QE) that "has worked so well in the past
* If QE worked so well in the past, we would not experience a recession in 2016
* You can't call QE a success until rates are normalized and the balance sheet shrinks back down to pre-crash levels
* If the Fed finds that it has to launch QE4 in 2016 because it failed to reach "escape velocity"
* How many QE's does the Fed have to initiate before it admits that it doesn't work, and is actually impossible to end without a great deal of pain?
* This loss of credibility in the Fed will precipitate a dollar crisis
* Anther thing that was ignored by Janet Yellen and the press was the six-year low in the ISM number
* The market is focusing on the service sector, yet the most important jobs are the goods producing jobs
* Lat month, we got a higher than expected jump in the non-manufacturing number:59.1
* This month we wend all the way down to 55.9, which is dangerously close to contraction
* If we get the service and the manufacturing sectors both in contraction, that will be a total recession, supporting Citibank's 65% probability forecast may look optimistic
* Since 2016 is an election year, a recession will not bode well for the Democrats' economic success narrativePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/4/2015 • 30 minutes, 43 seconds
Yellen’s Confidence Defies Data, Logic, and Common Sense – Ep.122
* The price of gold was down another $15 today, a 6-year low
* Selling began early this morning following a better than expected jobs report from ADP
* This is private payrolls released a couple of days before the official government Non-Farm Payroll number, coming out on Friday
* Last month's ADP report was 182,000 jobs, which was below expectations
* But the government reported better than expected jobs numbers
* Today's number was not significant enough to have triggered a sell-off in gold within seconds of the release of the news
* So far, ADP has missed 8 of the 12 expectations this year
* By the way, hedge funds are the most short they've ever been in gold
* We'll see what happens between now and the end of the year if we get a lot of hedge funds that want to book those profits
* Paper profits may be difficult to realize if everyone needs to take them at the same time
* In the physical world, demand for gold continues to hit records
* 98-99% of the gold market is people selling gold they don't actually have to people who don't actually want it
* It's interesting to me the difference between the market reaction to positive economic news versus negative news
* The November PMI number, although slightly better than expected it is still a 2-year low
* Where the news went from bad to horrific was when we got the November ISM number. Manufacturing is considered insignificant now because it is a smaller part of our economy, but the last time it was almost as low as this, the Fed immediately launched QE3.
* Now with ISM number nearly as weak as it was when we launched QE1, the Fed is hinting at a rate hike, which is absurd if you believe that the Fed is data dependent.
* If the Fed does raise rates in December it proves conclusively that they were never data dependent and that they were using it as a delay tactic
* Had the Fed raised rates years ago, it would have pushed the economy into recession that much sooner, but they've now waited so long, that the economy is already going back into a recession on its own
* If the Fed now raises rates even slightly, we will go into recession that much more quickly, causing credibility loss.
* Also, yesterday we got motor vehicle sales numbers, and we did 18.2 million, beating the expected number of 18.1 million; however this is the second or third month in a row that domestic sales have declined
* This is all a product of the auto bubble. Contrary to comparisons to the housing bubble, where people bought homes for investments, the bubble exists in automobile financing
* Also contributing to the weakness in gold, were Janet Yellen's recent statements containing the strongest indications yet that interest rates may raise in December
* She did, however, go out of her way to insist that the Fed has not made a decision, based on data coming in prior to the December meeting
* Yellen admits to improvements in the labor market, but acknowledges that there is underemployment and low labor force participation
* She did say, however, that she is confident that over the next 1-2 years, the economy will show real improvement in full employment and labor force participation
* She also believes that the economy is indicating enough momentum that inflation will also reach or exceed the 2% benchmark
* Paradoxically, economic data over the last 6 months show no such momentum
* If the manufacturing sector is already in recession, as data indicates, what makes Yellen believe that the service sector, which has shown modest growth, can sustain any growth?
* The only problem Yellen does address is overseas markets
* Ironically the worst thing that can happen to the U.S. economy is for markets to have more confidence in overseas economies,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/3/2015 • 28 minutes, 44 seconds
Weak Holiday Sales Confirm The Best Bargain Is Gold – Ep. 121
* I am recording this podcast on Cyber Monday
* Cyber Monday first got its name because e-commerce wanted its own version of Black Friday
* It's losing some significance, given it is losing some of its competitiveness because of the strong online sales during Black Friday
* Online sales were up about 20% over last year, but the brick and mortar retail sales were down about 10%
* The retailers' inventories were positioned for a big increase
* I think this holiday sales season will be weaker than expected, just as last year was
* I think we may see more returns on the online sales this year
* When the after Christmas sales start, we'll see more aggressive pricing in the brick and mortar stores, getting rid of excess inventory
* What is the Fed going to do with weak Black Friday sales data?
* We got more data out this morning, the Chicago PMI, horrible number
* Last month we got a bounce up to 56.2
* It turned out to be a dead cat bounce - November's number was expected at 54 and delivered 48.7
* We are back in contraction mode
* If the Fed does raise interest rates in December, it will prove that it was not data dependent, and that the Fed's credibility was the primary reason for the hike
* This Friday, the Non-Farm Payroll number will be the last number before the Fed's December meeting, making it once again, the most important jobs number ever
* Former Fed Governor Lawrence Lindsey recently pointed out on CNBC that the Fed has created another bubble
* He stated that asset price inflation is going to end badly
* In response, Joe Kernan questioned the assumption that the asset bubble will end badly
* Historically, all bubbles end badly
* I also wanted to comment on a WSJ article today predicting that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates, while the ECB would continue to ease rates into negative territory, and that U.S. interest rates would be 2.75% by early 2018
* How can they know that this will happen?
* If this is the case, it also assumes that there will not be a recession between now and 2018
* This would make it the longest recovery in history, while also requiring the most stimulus
* The WSJ article also assumes that the European economy will remain in recession for two years
* The article's logic is that the dollar is going to go up and the euro is going to go down
* Which brings me to gold
* Gold was down about $15; however gold stocks did not make a new low - up about 2% today
* This is a positive technical divergence
* The gold stock price may be anticipating a dovish December Fed meeting
* The ECB and Japan is talking up inflation, which is bullish for gold
* The problem is that if the ECB is more dovish than the Fed, it depresses gold prices in dollars
* The dollar is still losing its value
* All fiat currencies are being debased
* In the U.S. economy, M2 is growing at 6% a year
* Even if you believe the government's GDP numbers, it is growing at 2% a year
* So the money supply is growing three times the GDP
* That is as inflationary a monetary policy as we've ever had
* We have money supply growth, negative interest rates and no ceiling on the national debt
* This is an extremely bullish environment for gold, but the market is simply looking at the price of the dollar vs. the euro
* At some point the dollar is going to be weaker than the euro
* This looks a lot like the 1960's when the price of gold was constant because of artificial intervention
* There was a lot of demand for physical gold at that time
* Eventually when the artificial constraints were removed, the price of gold skyrocketed
* There are some artificial influencers on the price of gold right...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/30/2015 • 39 minutes, 27 seconds
Retailers May Still Be In The Red After Black Friday – Ep. 120
* Tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day, one day before Black Friday
* The one day of the year where Americans make their annual pilgrimmage there they stampede to the nearest mall to buy stuff they really don'[t need and can't afford
* It's almost like a black and blue weekend
* I believe that this will be a pretty weak holiday weekend; by the time we get the sales numbers next week, it's going to be pretty dismal
* The news that brought the euro down this morning was rhetoric coming from Mario Draghi , head of the ECB
* He's talking about expanding the QE program to a 2-tiered system
* Why is Draghi so determined to talk down the euro and talk up inflation?
* He is in pursuit of Keynesian economics' holy grail - inflation
* If only we can succeed in getting prices to go up faster then we would have economic growth and prosperity
* Believing that a rising cost of living is the secret sauce of economic growth
* If you search the internet, you see that no one is critical of this
* If rising prices are so important, why not just raise the VAT?
* You could obtain the exact amount of inflation desired if the real goal is to rais prices
* But that's not really the goal, because they would just raise the VAT
* The real goal is to wipe out government debt and to mitigate the effects of wage hikes imposed by the government
* Academia and the press all give them a pass on the idea that rising prices create prosperity
* The truth is the reverse: prosperity comes from reducing costs
* As things get cheaper, more people can afford them - I use the example of cell phones
* Now even poor people can afford a cell phone
* Falling prices lift standards of living and falling prices result from a productive economy
* Inflation results from government interference and it doesn't make things better
* Let's go over the economic data this week
* It's been a mixed bag
* On Monday we did get the manufacturing PMI number, expected to come in at 54.5 which would have been an improvement
* Instead, we got 52.6, the lowest number in 2 years
* I've been talking about this for a long time on this podcast - the manufacturing recession is already here
* The mainstream media dismisses this because manufacturing is so small it doesn't really matter
* That statement says so much
* A downturn in manufacturing will preclude a downturn in the service sector
* We also got existing home sales that came out on Monday - they were below estimates
* There's plenty of evidence that the housing market has already rolled over, and if the Fed were to raise interest rates, it would push it even further down that hill.
* The big number that came out yesterday was the revision to Q3 GDP
* Initially the government reported that the GDP was up 1.5%
* Everybody expected an upward revision and that's exactly what we got - a revision to 2.1
* The problem was, the number was due to a big build in inventory
* I have been talking about this for months on this podcast; we have huge amounts of unsold inventory
* Businesses have been more optimistic than they should have been based on the Fed's recovery rhetoric
* This mistake shows up as a positive in the GDP
* The other big factor is that the government assumes that inflation is just 1.3%
* I don't believe that for a second
* Health insurance alone is costing the average American's cost of living more than 2%
* Today the Atlanta Fed just reduced their Q4 GDP estimate from 2.3% down to 1.8%
* What the third quarter giveth, the fourth quarter taketh away
* Buried in that GDP report are some other bad numbers
* There was a 4.7% decline in corporate profits for the quarter - the biggest decli...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/25/2015 • 36 minutes, 31 seconds
Did The Fed’s Luck Run Out On Friday The 13th? – Ep. 118
* Friday the 13 was an unlucky day on Wall Street
* The Dow was down over 200 points - the second back to back decline of over 1% since August
* What was happening in August? Everybody was convinced the Fed was going to raise rates in September
* Now, everybody is just as convinced that the Fed will raise rates in December
* Once again, as I predicted a week ago, the market sold off
* We are down over 650 points on the week
* Nasdaq is down today even more - 1-1/2%
* The carnage was once again led by the retailers
* Bad earnings out of Macy's Nordstrom's Walmart and others set the scene for new share price lows
* I have been warning about this all year, based on inventory numbers
* All the evidence is flashing recession
* The Fed has been saying that they are data dependent - open your eyes and look at the data!
* This data is consistent with the beginning of a recession
* Yes, unemployment is low, but unemployment is always low when recessions begin
* I think the Fed knows they are not going to raise rates
* The Fed minutes are coming out next week and we'll get an insight into the deliberation between the members
* All Janet Yellen said was that an interest rate hike was a "live possibility" - The market did the rest.
* They took the word "possibility" and assumed that it was a probability
* Let's look at the economic data that came in today:
* First, October Producer Prices - they were looking for a rise of .2, because last month, they actually fell by .5
* We didn't get .2; we got -.4
* As of last month, year over year producer prices have declined 1.1%
* Now they are down 1.6% on the year
* This is going the opposite direction of the Fed's goal of 2% inflation
* The worst number was retail sales:
* They were looking for a rise of .3, which is still not a big rise - but we got an increase of just .1
* To add insult to injury, they had adjusted last month's forecast to zero
* Also x auto, they were looking for a gain of .4 and instead got a gain of .2
* These numbers will subtract from Q3 and Q4 GDP
* We also got September inventory numbers:
* The consensus was a rise of .1, but instead we rose .3
* This rise was not a result of an increase of sales, it is because sales are not keeping up with inventories
* The inventory to sales ratio rose to 1.48 fro 1.47
* The last time we had this number was during the financial crisis
* I have been pointing out that these inventory numbers have been padding the GDP for the last several quarters
* This has been ignored on Wall Street
* This means future GDP will plunge as companies need to liquidate inventories and not replenish them
* Not only that, they will be liquidating their workforce
* The heavy layoffs may not happen this year - more likely they will come in January and February
* The odds are that the Fed is not going to raise rates in December and the odds against a rate hike as the market continues to sink, with more and more bad economic news
* This bad news about retail sales was unexpected by the market as evidenced by the sharp drop in share prices
* Is the Fed going to raise rates just as the economy is turning down? Not a chance.
* If they do, imagine how much worse the economy will be
* The question is: When is the Fed going to come clean and admit that they are not going to raise rates and will their excuse be and will the markets buy it?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/14/2015 • 18 minutes, 33 seconds
Markets, Economy, Republican Debates – Ep. 117
* When I recorded my last video blog, I mentioned how positively the market reacted to jobs report, which could signal the Fed to raise rates
* I said there might be a delayed reaction and, in fact it did
* Four days into this trading week we are down more than 450 points
* Also, I did an interview on CNBC.com where I said I felt the retail markets would have a a tough time this Christmas
* That was translated into headlines that I stated that consumers would have a horrible Christmas, which was not my point
* So far, my prediction about the retail space is bearing out, bad earnings reports from Macy's Walmart, Men's Wearhouse, and its subsidiary, Joseph A. Bank, Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus
* The data that the Fed depends on is getting worse and worse
* If the Fed raises rates in December, it will prove that they have not been data dependent, they were delaying
* Copper a six-month low today, oil prices are down, gold hit a new low inter-day but rallied back and the dollar finished broadly lower for the day
* Based on these market prices, the Fed will have another excuse to delay rate hikes, again
* What will stop the stock market from falling? The only thing that will stop it is if the Fed takes a rate hike off the table
* I recently wrote a commentary where I reference the shadow rate
* Tightening actually began about 18 months ago when the Fed started tapering
* The Fed's monetary policy is not just about rates, it is also about easing and foreward guidance
* When the Fed began tapering they were tightening
* When they began talking about raising rates that was the equivalent of tightening, because the markets braced for the hikes
* That's why the economy is rolling over, that's why the stock market is rolling over
* Given how weak this recovery has been and the enormity of the stimulus required, if the Fed removes all stimulus it will result in a worse than normal reaction in this over-valued stock market compared to previous tightening cycles
* More evidence of the weakening economy is the number of millennials still living with their parents is at a record high
* I posted a Bloomberg article on my Facebook page about the number of young women living at home is the highest in 70b years
* Bloomberg prefaces the article by stating that this is not a sign of a weak economy, but clearly it is
* This also affects housing:
* Couples are delaying buying "starter homes" which delays or prevents them from saving up for a down payment on their dream house
* I also wanted to discuss the Fox Business Republican Debate
* I believe Rand Paul was actually the winner of that debate
* Paul stood out, and made some good points, which allowed him to move forward in the polls
* Paul is drawing a contrast, as he made the point that the real threat to the U.S. is not a military threat from the outside, but the self-inflicted threat of a weak economy
* Our debt is a bigger enemy than ISIS
* Paul also avoided jumping on the immigration bandwagon. Immigration is not the problem. If we turn off the welfare magnet, then the only people who come to America will be the people who want to work
* The country would benefit from that, because it will keep labor costs down and boost productivity
* The anti-immigrant voice of the Republican party will be vilified as racist in the general electionPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/13/2015 • 35 minutes, 7 seconds
Over-Hyped Oct. Jobs Report Does Not Assure Dec. Rate Hike – Schiff Report
* Friday, November 6, 2015
* Earlier today the government released the Non-Farm Payroll Report for the month of October
* I was told that this was the most import Non-Farm Payroll report ever
* They were looking for 190,000 jobs and we created 271,000 jobs
* Everybody now has jumped to the conclusion that a December rate hike is a lock
* There is nothing in this jobs report that indicates that
* The reason everybody believes that the Fed is like to raise rates is because Janet Yellen testified before Congress earlier in the week
* This is what the Fed Chair said about interest rates:
* If we get further improvements in the labor market and we make progress at achieving the Fed's inflation goal of 2% in the medium term
* How much improvement and what kind? We don't know, because thus far, no improvements have been enough to prompt a rate hike
* Yellen said that if we got those improvements, then a rate hike in December would be a "live possibility"
* This does not mean it will actually happen - it means it is possible
* She did not even use the word probable
* I don't think the Fed is going to raise rates in December
* We have one more "most important" jobs report between now and December and this month's numbers may be revised down, as others have
* From my perspective, if the Fed does not know that they will raise rates by now, they will not decide on the spur of the moment after a jobs report
* Even with positive economic news, the Fed still does not have to raise rates; they can come up with another excuse, real or unreal
* What happens if the stock market declines after a rate hike? what would the Fed do then?
* "Extend and Pretend" is working like a charm for the Fed now
* Getting back to today's job's report:
* This is the strongest month of the year following the two weakest months of the year
* Both of those months arrived with expectations of upward revisions, and they did not happen
* The three month average is 187,000 jobs
* The last three months have been slower than any prior three month period this year
* Last year, the 3-month average was about 250,000+ jobs
* So the job market is much slower this year than it was last year when the Fed was looking for "more improvements" before raising rates
* The unemployment rate did decline, but so far no positive data on unemployment rates have prompted the Fed to raise rates
* The Labor Force Participation Rate stayed at 62.4% which matches the low of this so-called recovery
* So we are not seeing more people entering the labor force
* This is not a sudden accelleration in the pace of job growth
* Let's look at the quality of the jobs:
* Most of the jobs, about 200,000 of the 271,000 jobs added are low-paying service sector jobs
* In second place, at 45,000, is temporary help
* Third place, at 44,000, is retail trade
* The fourth largest category is leisure and hospitality
* Manufacturing, mining, logging, transportation sectors lost jobs
* Where it really gets bad is in the demographics:
* All job gains went to people 55 and older
* People under the age of 55 lost 35,000 jobs
* If you look at the gender, men from 25 - 54 lost 119,000 jobs
* What would explain this?
* Older people can no longer afford to be retired, and are supplementing their retirement incomes
* Some of the older people are taking better jobs because they are more experienced
* Why are more women getting jobs?
* Women who were previously homemakers also need to supplement their incomes
* When you look at the demographic numbers, it is further proof that the Fed's explanation of the labor force participation rate is wrong
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/7/2015 • 23 minutes, 1 second
The Great Rate Hike Hoax – Ep. 116
* Here we go again; Janet Yellen was on Capitol Hill testifying about the banking system
* Forget about all her comments about how solvent the banking industry is - of course it's not
* The banking system is more vulnerable and more highly leveraged than before the bailout
* I am focusing on what she did or did not say about the Fed's intentions to raise rates in December and how the markets reacted
* Headlines following the testimony were about the probability that the Fed will raise rates in December
* The December meeting will be a live meeting with a rate hike on the table
* The official probability of a December rate hike rose from 50% to 60%
* When the Fed did not raise rates in October they removed language referencing concerns about international markets
* This was interpreted as a more hawkish stance on the part of the Fed
* The global economy was used as an excuse, but the Fed had no intention of raising rates in October
* In December when it doesn't raise rates, it'll use another excuse
* The markets wants to believe that the Fed will rates, and as soon as Yellen's comments were released, the dollar soared and gold tanked
* Let's look at what Janet Yellen actually said: first I am going to go to a Reuters story, Fed's Yellen sees possible December rate rise
* That's all it takes, just the mention of a possibility makes everybody jump to the conclusion it is going to happen
* Here's Yellen's quote directly from the artice:
* "What the committee has been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market and to return inflation to our 2 percent target over the medium term,"
* "If the incoming information supports that expectation then our statement indicates that December would be a live possibility."
* She is saying, if we get the improved data we're expecting
* The labor market has been weakening and the last two jobs numbers have been quite weak
* Yellen says it is possible if we get improvements we expect we will raise rates
* Anything is possible... it is more probable that she is not going to raise rates in December
* She actually says it's a long shot
* She's been saying this all year and it has not meant anything
* Reuters omitted from the article that Yellen followed up the above statement by reiterating that at this point, the Fed still has not made up its mind
* Another story from CNBC:Janet Yellen: December rate hike a 'live possibility'
* Here's a Yellen quote from this article:
* "Now no decision has been made on that and, what it will depend on, is the [Federal Open Market Committee's] assessment at the time. That assessment will be informed by all of the data that we collect between now and then,"
* This implies that they intend to collect data from now until the December meeting and make their decision on that data
* If the Fed does not know now, how different can the data be?
* If nothing is going to change, why not make a decision?
* Yellen's monetary policy is to pretend to raise rates and then not do it
* If you actually listen to what she is saying, it is far more probable that she won't raise rates, because thus far, we have not seen an improvement in the data she is tracking
* Even if the Fed sees improvements, they still might not raise rates
* Here's the one thing that Yellen is not doing: she does nothing to alter the false perception that a rate hike is likely
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/5/2015 • 27 minutes, 10 seconds
Fed Continues To Extend And Pretend On Rate Hikes – Ep.115
* I am recording this podcast from New Orleans, where I am attending the Investment Conference
* Today, I am going to talk predominantly is the FOMC statement that came out yesterday following the conclusion of their 2-day October meeting
* It was largely expected that the Fed would not raise interest rates in October and that's exactly what happened
* I predicted this a long time ago
* What is amazing is that, as a result of this announcement, more people expect the Fed to raise rates in December
* Going into this announcement, the dollar was on the defensive, silver was up about .50, gold was up $15.00
* It sure looked like people were expecting a more dovish tone from the Fed
* After all, a lot of bad economic news has come out since the September meeting
* When the Fed statement was released, there was no such change in language
* This now leads people to believe that the statement was hawkish
* They still don't understand the game: Nothing has changed.
* the Fed has to pretend that a rate hike is right around the corner in order to pretend that the recovery is real
* They can't admit that the economy is weak because they want to take credit for saving the economy
* They have to keep pretending, and they have to keep making up excuses
* Steve Leesman was asking why we need emergency rates when the emergency is over
* The emergency is not over, as far as the Fed is concerned because there is no real recovery
* If we had a legitimate recovery, of course the Fed could raise rates
* Thus the game: they continue to talk as if they might raise rates, and the markets buy it
* As soon as their statement came out, gold tanked, it ended up down about $10, silver gave up most of its gains, and the dollar was broadly higher
* If you actually read the statement, there is nothing hawkish about it
* It is basically the same as the September
* The only thing that stands out is an absence of concern
* The FOMC is not worried about all the bad news
* "In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. "
* None of that is going to happen. The labor market is deteriorated - the labor force participation rate is still shrinking
* These are metrics Janet Yellen needs to see improve
* The Fed knows that these minutes will be misinterpreted
* They want to preserve the illusion that a rate hike is possible so they can preserve the illusion that this is a legitimate recovery and not a gigantic bubble
* But, what's going to happen when the Fed doesn't raise rates and ends up launching QE4 the Fed is going to have zero credibility
* The U.S. economy is in worse shape now than it was leading into the 2008 financial crisis
* Now everybody is talking about how important the jobs number will be - the Fed has not raised rates in 7 years. How can one jobs report make the difference?
* Meanwhile we've had months of stronger jobs numbers and the Fed did not raise rates
* I think the truth is the Fed has decided not to raise rates
* But they still need to maintain the perception that they might raise rates and that'...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/29/2015 • 27 minutes, 8 seconds
ECB Opens The Door To More QE – Ep.114
* This is the first podcast I've been able to record since the death of my father, Irwin Schiff, who passed away on Friday
* If you're interested in learning more about him and the circumstances surrounding his death, I would encourage you to read my commentary, "The Death of a Patriot"
* There also links to many other articles written about him on my Facebook page
* You can also find on my YouTube channel, my father's debate for the 1996 Libertarian Nomination for President
* You can also find on the internet a video he created called, "The Secrets of a Tax Free Life"
* He died in jail because of his political beliefs and for standing up for his Constitutional rights
* While in prison, my father got insufficient medical care, he lost all his teeth, lost his eyesight and eventually died of cancer
* In my father's case, even if he were wrong, the penalty should have been a civil case
* My father was steadfast in his beliefs, and did not want to be released unless he won his appeals
* The Dow was up more than 300 points today
* The strength came from the ECB, as Draghi suggested that the ECB was considering expanding QE
* The ECB is trying to talk the euro down
* The ECB did not actually do anything, they just jaw-boned the markets with the idea of more QE
* This was a euro story - the dollar was only up against the euro
* The New Zealand dollar was up 1.3% against the U.S. dollar
* Gold was up 2% in terms of euros
* Silver was up .15 in dollars despite the big jump in the dollar index
* This lays more foundation for the Fed not to raise rates
* At some point, I think the Fed will another round of QE
* The reason Draghi suggested QE was over fears that inflation is too low
* It is running at .9%, but according the ECB, the holy grail is 1.9%
* Draghi was asked why he is spending so much money to raise inflation when he earlier said that low inflation is good for purchasing power
* How does the ECB think they can pinpoint inflation to exactly 1.9%?
* Draghi's answer was that low inflation makes debt harder to repay
* What Draghi is saying is that it doesn't reduce debt enough
* Why is it good to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors?
* He also said that with low inflation, real wages will rise
* Why is this a problem? Because the government artificially boosted wages in the first place expecting inflation to mitigate their true effect in the economy
* What's really too high is not so much wages as labor costs, due to government mandates
* We want workers to have higher wages in a free market based on their productivity
* All that is undermined in the ECB's quest to generate inflation
* Draghi also questions the accuracy of is numbers
* Central bankers are trying to prop up the stock market and the government
* The real debt the central banks want to wipe out is government debt
* This is not what central banks are supposed t do, they're supposed to be independent
* Another reason the U.S. market might have been strong is because of all the weak economic data that came out
* Housing was stronger than expected, but everything else was pretty weak
* The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which was -.41 came in at -.37 - back to back bad months
* Also leading economic indicators experience their biggest drop in almost 3 years to -.2
* Last month was also revised down
* Also the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index negative again
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/22/2015 • 25 minutes, 43 seconds
Walmart Is The Canary In The Retail Coal Mine – Ep.113
* We finally got some economic news today, all of it bad
* All of it "unexpected"...
* Hope springs eternal on Wall Street
* That's why the Federal Reserve can maintain its forecast of an interest rate hike before the end of the year
* Although now a second Fed official has come out saying he doesn't think a rate hike will be appropriate this year
* All this was forecasted by me; there was a method to their madness to maintain the theater that a rate hike is even possible
* When is the Fed going to admit that their earlier forecast of a big recovery and liftoff is wrong?
* CNBC finally admitted they do not want me on because I correctly predicted that the Fed would not raise rates
* The same is true for Bloomberg
* However, the last time I was on Fox Business, that video on my YouTube Channel got over 80,000 views
* That is probably more people who viewed the live show!
* By the way, don't forget to like me on Facebook follow me on Twitter and and subscribe to my YouTube Channel
* It's not going to be too much longer before more and more people will agree the Fed is not going to raise rates
* If I am right and the Fed launches QE4, it will be hard for the conventional media to ignore me - I am not saying it will be impossible, though
* These podcasts are developing a greater and greater audience, and you can help spread the word by sharing them, to get the word out
* Let's get to the economic data, starting with the Weekly Mortgage Applications
* This number was significant in the precipitous 27.6% drop in the composite index with purchased mortgages dropping 34%
* Part of this was due to last week's big jump as mortgage applicants tried to get ahead of new government rules
* But the drop is much bigger than the pop - this is a bad sign
* The consensus forecast for the Producer Price Index was for month over month prices to drop .2% instead they dropped .5%
* Year over year, down 1.1%; last month it was down .8%
* This is bad news to the Fed, which is looking for higher inflation
* The real negative news was the September Retail Sales Number
* It was expected to be weak, up only .1 and that's what we got, but last month's .2 number was revised down to flat
* Now we're up .1 from zero, meaning August and September Retail Sales missed expectations
* This will pull numbers away from Q3 GDP
* I think we will get Q3 GDP below 1%
* It might be below zero, which will be the first half of a recession
* We also got Business inventories, which were unchanged, but the inventory ot sales ration popped up to 1.37 - that ties the high for the move
* This glut of product is bad news for the economy
* The last 2 times we had inventory to sales ration this high, we were already in recession - 2001 and 2008
* The worst news was Walmart's bombshell announcement that profits are suffering due to labor costs
* Their sales are suffering, too
* 75% of the losses are due to higher wages and the balance came from lower sales
* Walmart is the nation's biggest retailer and should benefit most from a stronger dollar and cheap gas
* Walmart's stock was down 10% on the day, one of the worst days in the history of Walmart
* YTD, it is down 33% from its highs - a super bear market for Walmart
* The Left proclaims that Walmart is getting rich on the backs of the workers - a collapse in Walmart stock price is not good for workers because profits are what creates the jobs
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/15/2015 • 24 minutes, 48 seconds
Fed Worried Cost of Living Not Rising Fast Enough – Ep. 112
* The Dow Jones finished up almost 140 points - back over 17000
* The Dow has now rallied 1,000 points since its lows on Friday following the lower than expected Non-Farm Payroll number
* The market originally sold off until traders realized that bad news is good news and they bought the dip
* The buying intensified today following the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting
* I predicted the markets would experience a rally based on the weak Non-Farm Payrol number
* The U.S. market looks like it's standing still compared to the markets overseas
* Now that so many traders are starting to connect the dots and realize that a rate hike is not around the corner we've seen a huge rally in overseas stocks, particularly in emerging markets
* All currencies continue to gain against the dollar
* Silver prices earlier in the week hit a 3-1/2 month high
* Gold got back above 1150
* Oil prices are close to $50/barrel
* All of this is happening because traders are beginning to pare back their rate hike bets
* In light of today's release of the dovish September FOMC meeting minutes the trend will intensify
* Why were people surprised by the dovish minutes?
* If you read the minutes, the real reason the Fed did not raise rates is because inflation is too low
* They also said they would risk credibility raising rates below 2%
* Lose credibility with whom?
* If they are afraid to raise rates with inflation below 2%, they why have they been bluffing that they are about to raise rates?
* The official inflation number has been below 2% the entire time they have been talking about a rate hike
* I have been saying that they will continue to pretend to raise rates, but they won't
* I thought it was funny that Netflix raised their rates 11% - the Fed must have thought this was good news
* The real reason the Fed won't rais rates is that they don't want to prick the bubbles
* We have a bubble in the stock market
* A bubble in the real estate market
* A bubble in the bond market
* Auto loans, student loans, consumer credit, art - you name it
* The Fed doesn't want the government to deal with higher interest rates
* Look at the headline in the Wall Street Journal about foreign central banks beginning to dump treasuries
* Look at how many treasuries China has sold
* This is the tip of a huge iceberg
* How is the Fed going to end QE when it has to take the other side of the mother of all trades?
* CNBC cited overseas problems washing up on our shore as the reason why the Fed won't be raising rates - these are not overseas problems
* The problems started here - they're just coming back
* The overseas markets were reacting to higher interest rates and a strong dollar
* This game is going to end - the next time the dollar goes down, it's down for the count
* Rather than having foreign central banks coming to its rescue, they are going to be joining in the dollar selloff just like everybody else
* I wanted to comment on an Robert Wenzel's article in the Economic Policy Journal
* Wenzel appears to be referring to me but does not mention my name
* Here's the title of his piece, dated September 18, following the most recent Fed meeting:
* "The Absurd Idea That The Fed is Not Going to Raise Rates"
* Wenzel refers to "certain so-called Austrians out cheering that they were proven correct in their view that the Fed will not raise rates..."
* Many people commented that he must be referring to Peter Schiff, but he denied this
* Wenzel seems to believe I do not think the Fed should raise rates
* I am not saying what I think the Fed should do, I'm saying what I think they will do
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/9/2015 • 24 minutes, 56 seconds
Video Blog: September Jobs Report Confirms Weakening Labor Market
* It is the first Friday of the month, and that means that this morning we got the September Non-Farm Payroll number
* Anyone who has listened to my podcasts and video blogs knows that for months I have criticized these so-called strong jobs reports
* I think what's going on is a transformation of the economy from full-time jobs to part-time jobs and that necessitates creating more jobs that you destroy, but the real story is beneath the surface
* The report we got today was one of the weakest reports relative to expectations than we've had in years
* This may be the final missing piece to the economic puzzle that shows that the economy is not as strong as everybody, including the Fed pretends it to be
* And that the rate hikes expected to be around the corner are a distant blur on the horizon
* Soon more will join me in recognizing the more QE is coming
* Of course QE is not medicine; it is toxic
* Let's get down to the tale of the tape with the jobs numbers
* First, the bigger number is the August number, which was expected to be revised up, was revised down to 136,000 jobs
* July was also revised down
* The September number was expected to be 203,000 and actually came in at 142,000
* This is an average of 163,000 jobs for the last 3 months
* Six of the last 8 jobs numbers have been revised downward
* The August labor force participation rate was 62.6, which was the lowest of the "recovery"
* The September rate dropped another .2 to 62.4, which is the lowest since 1977
* Another 579,000 left the labor force in September - now there are 94.6 million Americans not working
* Average hourly earnings, expected to rise .2, remained flat
* In fact, the average work week declined from 34.6 to 34.5
* If you remember, what has Janet Yellen stated as a requirement for a Fed rate hike? - An improvement in the labor market.
* The labor market was singled out as a reason why rates remained at zero in September
* While others speculated that rates might hike in October or December, I said the labor market is not going to improve, so the Fed will not raise rates
* Janet Yellen is looking at labor force participation, which has declined to a new low
* Yellen is also looking for an improvement in wages - that is going the other way
* If you also look at the details of this jobs report, you'll see that jobs created are low-paying jobs and jobs lost are higher-paying jobs
* For example, we lost jobs in wholesale trade, manufacturing and logging - those are good-paying blue collar jobs
* We gained jobs in leisure and hospitality, education and healthcare, retail trade - and a lot of these jobs are temporary or part time
* This is why there is not real recovery, why people can't save or buy houses
* This weak jobs number is another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates
* Some are pointing to this jobs number as proof of the Fed's wisdom in not raising rates in September
* However, Yellen stated that rates would go up if the economy continues to improve as the Fed expects - but the economy is getting worse
* I've always said that the Fed does not want to raise rates because it does not want to look foolish if it has to back down from a rate hike
* We got more economic data today: factory orders wer down 1.7% worse than the expected number of -1.3%
* Also, last month's number was revised down, making this the tenth month in a row that factory orders have been down, year over year
* This only happens in a recession
* Maybe we are in a recession
* We don't have Q3 GDP numbers yet, but yesterday the Atlanta Fed reduced its Q3 estimate to .9
* The consensus on Wall Street and at the Fed is still 2.5
* I think that given this jobs number,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/3/2015 • 29 minutes, 42 seconds
President Trump and Treasury Secretary Icahn? – Ep. 111
* It's been over a week since I did my last podcast there's been a lot of economic news - almost all bad
* The markets have been under pressure - we're back down near the mini-Black Monday lows, solidly in correction mode
* The pressure on international markets has been greater
* Yet the vast majority of economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates by December
* This would really mean last minute - as the Fed's messaging hints at an interest rate hike by the end of the year
* If you look at the Fed's reasons it listed were:
* Weakness in overseas economies
* Lack of inflation, as the Fed measures it
* Increased improvement in the labor markets
* Why would the Fed move if all these concerns still exist?
* The answer is, it would not move
* No one wants to connect the obvious dots
* When the Fed refused to rule out an interest rate hike in October or December it might have been the worst thing for the markets because it is admitting it is considering kicking the economy when it is down
* Initially I thought the Fed would indiciate a dovish hold, but they opted for a hawkish hold, which exacerbates the issues with the markets, as the hike is already priced in
* International markets assume America can handle higher interest rates; but the Fed is still talking up the economy to send the message that the U.S. can handle higher rates, even though it can't
* I discussed this at length in my recently released video of my address in Jackson Hole, Wyoming
* I really want discuss in today's video two people who are in the news: Donald Trump and Carl Icahn
* Trump was on 60 Minutes this week and Carl Icahn recently released a video called, 'Danger Ahead'
* Trump's performance really hit the ball out of the park with his delivery, not that I agree with everything he said
* The typical voter will buy his bill of goods
* The interview was a commercial for Donald Trump in which he promises everything to everybody
* The promises to cut taxes on everyone but the hated hedge fund managers
* He promises to repeal and replace Obamacare with something even better and still insure everybody
* He promises to save Social Security
* He promises to grow the economy
* To the average voter, who doesn't really understand economics, he sounds like he can pull it off
* He sounds optimistic about what the country can be like if he is elected president
* The economy will grow because jobs will come back from overseas
* How is he going to do that? I don't know, but it doesn't matter
* He says it in a way that people are going to believe it
* Who will argue against it?
* He is not singling out any one interest group that will suffer
* His performance was brilliant, even though much if what he promises is impossible
* His tax message resonates because currently the government uses high corporate taxes so that special interests groups can be given favors by Congress, and higher taxes are held over the heads of those who do not buy them off with votes
* With lower corporate taxes, the politicians lose that leverage
* Trump doesn't need these special interest votes because he's spending his own money
* All Trump needs to do is get the nomination, then the Republican Party will support his Presidential Campaign
* His campaign for the nomination has been largely fueled by publicity
* He is running a better campaign in light of public perception
* Trump is throwing light on the problems who the average guy really feel - even if he is pie and the sky
* Carl Icahn is in the news because he could be Treasury Secretary i...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/30/2015 • 26 minutes, 48 seconds
Yellen Admits Rates Could Stay at Zero Forever – Ep. 110
* Tuesday's podcast was titled, "Will She or Won't She?" referring to whether or not Janet Yellen would announce an interest rate hike for the first time in almost 7 years
* Today we got the official answer: "No."
* For the 54th consecutive time, the Fed has left interest rates unchanged at zero
* What is even more amazing, in the Q&A immediately following the announcement, Janet Yellen admitted that she could not rule out the possibility that interest rates would stay at zero forever
* A reporter asked her if the Fed may be trapped at zero forever
* Among the excuses the Fed used was problems in overseas markets, which opens up a grab bag of excuses for the Fed conveniently explain why it is not going to raise rates
* I said from the beginning the Fed has no intention of raising rates
* They also mention that these problems may spill over into the U.S. economy
* She also mentioned additional problems in the labor force: wages, people re-entering the workforce and more full-time jobs
* That is not going to improve in the next three months, yet the Fed is still pretending that it could raise rates in October or December
* Yellen is also no ruling out that the Fed could keep interest rates at zero forever, so who cares about what she won't rule out?
* Janet Yellen answered the reporter's question by saying, " We don't think we are going to be in that situation, however I can't rule it out."
* So the fact that she is not ruling out an October or December rate hike means nothing, because she also can't rule out zero interest rates forever
* What else does this tell you?
* She is concerned that rates will be at zero for a long time
* Janet Yellen believes that the Fed could actually keep interest rates forever
* They won't even stay at zero for the end of this decade because ther is going to be a currency crisis that forces the Fed to raise rates
* The only reason the Fed has maintained the illusion of control for so long is that the market is believing them
* When They figure what the Fed is really doing, then it is over with
* Then the dollar will tank, creating upward pressure on inflation
* They will have to raise rates; market will not give them a choice
* Janet Yellen does not know this
* Another reporter asked her if the Fed will adjust their policy if inflation gets to inflation sooner than anticipated
* Yellen went out of her way to state that 2% is the target, but not the ceiling
* I think the Fed does not have a ceiling, but the market does
* Another interesting discussion was regarding the balance sheet
* The Fed can't start shrinking the balance sheet until they raise rates
* Yellen admitted that since rates are still at zero, they are pushing back the time when the Fed will begin shrinking the balance sheet
* If the Fed never raises rates, then it can never shrink its balance sheet
* The Fed may never raise rates on its own volition: I know eventually they will have to raise rates
* And then it will be a complete catastrophe
* But everybody is still pretending everything is great, maybe the Fed will raise rates in October of December
* Here's another interesting development: the market was up all day but it sold off down 65 points. A pretty big reversal.
* Ultimately the Fed will have to officially take rate hikes off the table
* What kind of bad news will they need to do that?
* We got bad news today: Housing Starts were significantly below estimates and the prior month was revised down
* Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index had its second lowest week in a year
* The worst number that came out was Philly Fed - was expected to come in at +6, but actually came in at -6
* The biggest miss in 4 years
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/18/2015 • 23 minutes, 36 seconds
Will She or Won’t She? Ep. 109
* Tomorrow we have the most highly anticipated Fed meeting ever, but this will not be the last time I'll say this
* We'll also be anticipating October and December if the Fed does not raise interest rates in September
* The odds are they won't do it
* I put a Bloomberg story on my Facebook page: Yellen's former aid says a rate hike would be a serious error
* Why? The official target for the Fed Funds Rate now is at a range of 0 to .25 basis points
* The Fed is contemplating a rate of .25 which is the high end of the existing range
* If they decide to keep the rate at .25, all they've done is fixed the rate at the high end of the range
* This is not even a rate hike
* Why would this be a disaster?
* Isn't that an admission that the economy is fragile?
* When Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1% after the dot com bubble and after Sept 11, people though, this is ridiculous!
* Now we are talking about raising rates to a quarter of that and it is considered a disaster
* What is going to change between September and October and October and December - unless they get worse
* The serious error is to prick the bubble economy
* The more serious error is for the Fed to raise rates and then admit that it was a mistake they lose credibility
* We're going into recession regardless
* If they raise rates, they will have to launch QE4 sooner
* Any rate hike will sow the seed of a rate cut
* On the topic of a recession, let's talk about the economic news we got today
* The first release we got was August Retail Sales
* A rise of .3 was expected and we got a gain of .2
* These are not great numbers
* The worse number of the day was Empire State Manufacturing: last month's horrible number was -14.92 the lowest since 2009
* Wall Street was looking for -.5
* September was -14.67; barely an improvement
* Back to back the worse numbers since the great recession
* The media barely reported on this number at all, but if it were good, it would have been in the headlines
* The Redbook Year over Year Same Store Sales Index has collapsed - right now it is at 1.3
* Previous years ranged between 3% and 5%
* Industrial Production was expected to fall by .2, but fell by .4
* Capacity Utilization dropped from 78 last month to 77.6
* Manufacturing output dropped as well to -.5
* Auto manufacturing had its biggest drop in 4 years
* I have been talking on this podcast about the Auto Bubble and we are getting more evidence that the bubble has burst
* The biggest decline in manufacturing in 4 years is pretty good evidence
* The fact that there is a huge inventory of unsold cars on dealers' lots is evidence that the market is saturated
* We got more news from business inventories: up .1 as expected
* Sales are also falling, so the inventory to sales ration is still 1.36, a notch below the record high from the '08 financial crisis
* Inventories have to come down a lot more because sales are not there
* They are not there because the economy is weak
* Earlier strong GDP growth was from inventory buildup
* All the evidence points to recession
* Employment numbers, which are theoretically good, are a lagging indicator
* All the leading indicators of the economy are flashing a warning
* Yet the media is ignoring the warnings and paying attention to Janet Yellen
* She is pretending the economy is strong so she can pretend to raise rates
* We need to allow the economy to go through that unfortunate crisis and allow the bubble economy to burst and the real economy to heal
* The Federal Reserve shot us up with all these monetary drugs so unfortunately we have to check into monetary rehabPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/16/2015 • 23 minutes, 48 seconds
Weak Data Belies Fed’s Upbeat Narrative – Ep. 108
* The U.S. stock market finished out this holiday-shortened week on an upnote with the Dow Jones up just over 100 points
* This was the best week the market has had since March
* The dollar was softer on the week; the euro ended solidly above 113
* Gold was under pressure throughout the day but closed only off about $3.00
* Gold stocks earlier this morning were at the lowest I've seen in this cycle but then had a sharp reversal finishing much stronger on the day
* The markets are looking forward to no rate hike in September
* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Numbers may have been the catalyst to turn the market
* They were looking for 91 - slight below last month; instead we got 85.7 - a huge miss
* This is the biggest miss in the history of the index
* The bigger number was the Wholesale Trade Number, which was expected to reflect inventories to rise .3%
* Instead, inventories declined by .1%
* This will notch a little off of Q3 GDP
* More importantly, inventories went down, but sales also declined by .3%
* This means the inventory to sales ratio rose again
* It is not at the highest it has been since the 2008 financial crisis
* This level has only existed twice in the last 15 years and both of those times, the economy was in recession
* Another interesting chart is inventory to sales in the Auto sector
* Auto inventory to sales level has risen to 1.73% - the highest since 2009
* Today's inventory to sales ratio is even higher than the recession of 2001
* This is a sign that the Auto bubble is bursting
* If the Fed were going to raise interest rates in September, wouldn't we already know by now?
* The longer the Fed waits to raise rates, the less likely is is to do it
* If the Fed does rates and then has to go back to zero, it will look like the Fed was wrong about the economy
* It would be better now to keep rates at zero, indicating they understand the weakness in the economy
* The other risk of raising rates, and weakening the economy is that it may become evident that the Fed can never raise rates
* The driving force behind the dollar rally is expectation of normalization of rates
* The Fed has severed the legs of the economy and higher rates will expose this
* The Fed has plenty of excuses not to raise rates, but now that they started zero percent interest rates, they will not be able to stop
* The balance sheet has not shrunk at all
* There is no way out
* How can people think that we can keep interest rates this low for this long and not have problems?
* Artificially low interest rates causes mis-allocation of resources
* Those mistakes are corrected when interest rates go up
* The next economic downturn is going to leave the Fed with no other recourse than QE
* Fiscal stimulus will roll out during the election year to cover the bigger deficits caused by Keynesian stimulus package
* Also the emerging markets are just starting to unload U.S. Treasuries because they no longer need them to keep their currencies from rising
* When they realize that the dollar has peaked and a new bear market has begun, the Fed will have to not only stimulate the economy and monetize the growing deficit, they will also have to monetize the treasuries that are being sold by foreign central banks
* QE4 for will be bigger than QE1, QE2 or QE3
* The question is, when are people going to figure this out?
* When is the dialogue going to turn from when will the Fed raise rates to how big is the next stimulus package be and how soon will it be here?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/11/2015 • 22 minutes, 14 seconds
Rate Hike Fear JOLTS Markets – Ep. 107
* Another day, another 450-point swing in the Dow Jones
* The market opened about 250 points higher off the back of overseas markets
* Japan was the standout; it was up about 7% on the hope of more money printing
* All overseas markets were stronger and the U.S. followed that lead, but at the end of the day, the market was down about 240 points, a lot of selling coming in the final hour
* Huge swings almost daily over several weeks generally indicates a change in trend
* The long-term trend of a rising market followed by extreme volatility usually marks the end of that trend
* All this volatility is based on rate hike uncertainty
* Sentiments range from rate hikes coming either in September, October, or December
* The first rate hike is not scaring everybody, it is the consequences of interest rate normalizaion
* If the Fed does raise rates, I think the market will start looking toward the next rate cut
* This bubble is so big, the slightest pin will prick it
* The Fed's only option will be stimulus to get out of the next recession
* The cycle will be much shorter because of the amount of debt we have
* Sentiment is coming from everywhere asking the Fed not to raise rates, which plays into the Fed's hand
* This disguises the Fed's actual intention not to raise rates
* Market volatility today was probable due to the JOLTS report today which unexpectedly jumped up to the highest level in years, indicating a huge number unfilled jobs
* The JOLTS numbers have been good for years, and wages still have not gone up
* This is just the raw number of jobs, so these may be a larger number of part time jobs open replacing full time jobs
* Many low-paying jobs won't be filled because entitlements provide higher compensation
* Everyone is on pins and needles because they know that cheap money is the only thing that is fueling the economy - it's not real earnings
* The market may have sold off anyway because there has been a lot of technical damage done to this market and it is likely to go down until the Fed admits that rates are not going up
* The stock market, unlike the foreign exchange market or the commodities market or the emerging markets have not discounted rate hike normalization
* This means that if the Fed does rates by a quarter point, the dollar could sell off because it is too little too late
* It could be the shortest tightening cycle ever
* The stock market needs to know that the Fed is not going to raise rates
* The U.S. will lose its safe haven appeal
* One small example why the Fed can't raise rates is the sub-prime Auto Loan bubble, which is now above a trillion dollars
* The short-term benefit to the economy is increased manufacturing, inventory and jobs
* But the huge reduction in credit quality of these loans provides risk of fewer future sales due to longer payoff terms
* It is much easier to default on an auto loan than it is to default on a home
* If we have a trillion dollars in auto loans, if we go into recession next year, we would lose at least $100 - 200 billion on car loans which will further exacerbate the recession in a big way
* High-paying jobs in the auto industry will be lost,and the Fed has to know this already
* Another trend is a record high in auto leases because they offer lower monthly payments
* Leases are not the best choice unless they are bought for a business, providing a tax write-off
* Otherwise, for personal use, your payments never end - you never own the car/li>
* I have already recommended not to borrow money to buy a car
* Save your money and buy a used car you can afford
* In the Chinese economy, most cars are purchased with cash, from savings
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/10/2015 • 31 minutes, 16 seconds
Did August Jobs Ready Fed for Sept. Rate Hike?
* Earlier today we released the most important Non-Farm Payroll report ever, at least according to the media
* A WSJ article stated that this report could "seal the deal" on rate hikes
* Interest rates have been at zero for 7 years as the Fed contemplated lift-off
* It all boiled down to one jobs report?
* If the Fed were going to raise interest rates in 2 weeks, how can it count on its accuracy or the fact that numbers will change next month?
* Let's get into the numbers:
* The number we got was 173,000 - well below the consensus forecast
* One of the weaker components was private payrolls, which only grew by 140,000 vs and expected 211,000
* The headline number is the unemployment drop to 5.1% - the lowest in the Obama presidency
* Once again, the devil is in the details
* The unemployment rate is falling because of the mass exodus from the labor force
* Another 261,000 Americans left the labor force this month
* The participation rate held steady at 62.6%
* The lowest rate since 1977
* I think it's heading lower
* The total number of persons not in the labor force rose to a new record: 94,031,000
* Also this month another 158,000 Americans find themselves involuntarily employed part-time
* That's what's responsible for the "improvement" in the labor numbers
* Janet Yellen specifically wanted to an increase in labor force participation and more full-time jobs before contemplating raising rates
* Those numbers have gone in the wrong direction
* Why is nobody pointing this out?
* This is the 9th month in a row that year-over-year factory orders have declined
* The only other time that has happened is during recession
* Every time we've seen a sharp decline in the market accompanied by an increase in the volatility index, the Fed has responded with Quantitative Easing
* More and more people now do not believe the Fed will raise rates in September
* If the Fed raises interest rates and the market keeps falling and the economy rolls over, the Fed loses a lot of credibility
* This is affecting global markets
* The Dow is now in correction
* I pointed out in my last video blog that: a) the Fed has never raised interest rates from zero and b)normally the Fed raises interest rates into an accelerating economy
* This time the Fed is raising interest rates when the economy is weakening
* This time a rate hike will prick a much larger bubble
* Even if the Fed raised rates to a quarter of a percent, that is still cheap money
* The markets are forward-looking and they are not going to like what they see
* The dollar strengthened on anticipation that the Fed will raise rates
* America cannot afford higher interest rates on the debt we have now
* One of the things most people overlook is the huge stockpile of U.Ss treasuries that are held abroad
* Why do the emerging markets have so may dollars?
* In the aftermath of the 1997 Asian economic crisis, they bought dollars as a reserve to defend their currency if it started to fall
* That is happening
* So now, foreign governments are going to start drawing on their reserves, selling treasuries to shore up their currencies
* The vast majority of the accumulation happened after QE1, when we had a currency war
* The media has labeled this sell-off "Quantitative Tightening"
* China has already started to gradually sell treasuries
* The Fed has promised not to roll over maturing treasuries and to shrink the $4.5 trillion balance sheet to about a trillion
* That's $3.5 trillion of Quantitative Tightening
* Interest rates would have to rise dramatically to attract real buyers to U.S. treasuries
* No one can afford higher rates,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/4/2015 • 30 minutes, 2 seconds
Fed Casts Extras In Its Rate Hike Show
* The Dow just finished its worst month in over 4 years
* A lot has happened in the market since I recorded my last podcast
* When I recorded that podcast, I had anticipated a "Turnaround Tuesday" where the market would gap up, but then sell off by the close
* That is exactly what happened
* Then the Dow had its biggest 3-day rally in history
* Still that record-setting rise was not enough to repair the damage done that was done earlier
* The Dow had its biggest down month in over 4 years
* Still in official correction territory
* Adding woes to the stock market are Fed comments that September rate hikes are not off the table
* This will continue to add pressure on the markets
* If this week's Non-Farm Payroll number is positive, it could be very dangerous for the Dow Jones
* Technically, the market is very vulnerable, and without the Fed's support there is little to stop the correction from progressing into a bear market
* All of the big money is starting to sell stocks because they believe the Fed may raise rates
* The market will keep falling until the Fed cries, "Uncle!"
* Once the Fed comes to the rescue, big money will start buying again
* The Fed is still ignoring negative economic data, such as today's August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey which came in at -15.8
* There is probably not going to be much change in the unemployment number, no matter how weak the economy is
* Walmart is now cutting back on hours because they increased wages earlier
* As long as the Fed is continuing to bluff that rate hikes are on the table for September or October, this market will be under a lot of pressure
* If we close below the lows of last Monday, it is going to get ugly really fast
* The Fed doesn't want the market to connect the dots directly from monetary policy to market performance
* That would illustrate how unsustainable its policies really are
* I compared the Fed's tactics to trying to yank the table out from under the tablecloth, rather than the tablecloth out from under the dishes
* The Fed was basing the whole recovery on lifting the asset markets
* As soon as the Fed stops lifting, the recovery goes away
* One of the interesting things today was the reversal in oil prices
* One of the few times oil prices rose, and the stock market didn't
* Over the last 3 three days, we've had better than a $10 increase in the price of oil
* Oil needs to go up quite a bit more before we can say a bottom is in
* An end to rate hike rhetoric will knock the support out from under the dollar and that the strong dollar is undermining global demand for crude oil
* I was in Jackson Hole during The Federal Reserve's Annual Economic Policy Symposium to participate in the American Principles Project Economic Summit, which was a protest against Fed policy
* Concurrent to our conference another organization called, "Fed Up", sponsored by the AFLCIO and Black Lives Matter
* Working class protesters carried signs encouraging the Fed to keep interest rates down and target higher inflation
* How is that going to help these working-class "protestors"?
* These participants probably had very little knowledge of the Fed or monetary policy
* The American Principles Project Economic Summit was denied access to the resort where the Fed Summit met because for security reasons, citing that other group was allowed to meet in that venue
* "Fed Up", however, was allowed to meet in the same venue as the Federal Reserve
* I think "Fed Up" conference was staged. They conveniently provided a backdrop of signs encouraging more of the Fed's existing monetary policy
* The protest I participated in was sharply critical of the Fed's monetary policy,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/1/2015 • 33 minutes, 20 seconds
Will the Fed Rescue the Stock Market? – Ep. 105
* It wasn't a Black Monday of the 1987 variety, but it was one for the record books
* The Dow was down opened downjust over 1,000 points - the biggest intra-day point drop ever
* When the market opened down that low, bargain hunters came in for a spectacular rally
* Bringing the Dow almost back into positive territory before surrendering those gains and ending the day down 588 points, another 3.5% drop, closing at 15,871
* Taking out the 16,000 handle just a few days after taking out the 17,000 handle
* All of these drops are being blamed by the media on China
* The Dow Jones is down about 11% year to date
* After today's drop, the Chinese market was down less than 1%
* This is not all about falling Chinese stocks
* It's the Fed - Everybody believes the Fed is going to end the party
* As we got closer to September, the stock market was already going down
* I've said all along that the Fed was bluffing - it is a game of chicken
* Finally, today, Barclay's is predicting a Fed rate hike in March of 2016
* I think the Fed will launch QE4 before we get to a rate hike in March 2016, which is an election year
* The media wants to blame the correction on China, as if there are no domestic problems to worry about
* China should be blaming it on us - we're the ones who got the world hooked on zero percent interest rates
* The fantasy was that we could raise rates without an impact on the economy
* The falling stock market is going to have an impact on the real economy
* The economy is weak and getting weaker
* This correction will turn into a full-fledged bear market unless we get some official statement from the Fed that they will not raise rates
* That may come later this week in Jackson Hole
* I am going to be in Jackson Hole at an anti-Fed conference
* Here's an example of how ridiculous the "Blame China" rhetoric is:
* Maria Bartoromo was talking about the market decline with respect to the China currency devaluation
* She actually said that by devaluing the Yuan, Chinese made products will be more competitive against American-made products
* America does not produce products that compete with Chinese products!
* She's grasping at straws to connect the stock market correction with the Chinese Yuan devaluation
* Right now it is positive for America if we can purchase Chinese products more cheaply because we're buying them anyway
* Eventually, however, Chinese products will get more expensive when the yuan goes up
* She's just trying to fit the narrative because that's what makes everybody feel comfortable
* That's why I am not on CNBC and CNN - they realize my comments do not support their editorial policy
* I am not talking about Armageddon for the markets - I am talking about the Fed saving the day
* I don't think the market is going to crash, but I believe it will go down until the Fed cries "Uncle" and prop up the equities markets with another round of QE
* The Federal Reserve did not solve our problems in 2008 - they interrupted the crisis with QE and zero percent interest rates
* That crisis would have solved the problem but we kicked the can down the road and we finally caught up to that can
* We are resuming the financial crisis that the Fed interrupted from a much deeper hole
* Had the Fed raised rates two years ago, we would have been in recession sooner
* They should have allowed the markets to solve the problems they caused
* Now we have more debt than ever before
* I have also been talking about the developments in the foreign exchange markets
* The dollar has been strong because rate hikes were expected
* The strong dollar has weakened commodities,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/25/2015 • 23 minutes, 2 seconds
U.S. Stock Market Correction Not Made In China – Ep.104
* What a week for global stock markets, but in particular, the U.S. stock market, which had its worst week in 4 years
* The Dow Jones down better than 1,000 points - over 10% from its peak puts it in official correction territory
* One-third of the stocks in the S&P 500 are already down 20% from their highs
* The Dow lost more than half of the 1,000 points today - 530 points, which is the 9th biggest point decline ever
* This is on top of the 350 points dropped on Thursday
* Thursday we broke below some key technical levels so Friday's drop was inevitable
* There could be a bigger one looming for Monday
* This is reminiscent of the weekend before Black Monday back in 1987
* We are only about 300 points above the lows from October last year when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saved the market and sent the Dow up 2,000 points
* This time he is throwing the market an anchor
* He still indicates the Fed is undecided
* What data over the next couple of weeks could be that significant?
* The Fed does not want to admit that they can't raise rates
* When is the Fed going to blink?
* Valuations are extremely high, and the Fed is about to go from supporting the market to leaning against it
* The economy is decelerating
* I think the market is going to surrender all the gains it has made since March of 2009
* None of those gains have been real - they did not come from increased production or a genuine increase in corporate earnings, it was all Fed engineering
* The market has gained no ground since QE was suspended
* If the market goes down on Monday, what is the Fed going to do?
* The Fed needs an excuse not to raise rates
* The drop is not because of China
* The problem in China and in the emerging markets is caused by the perception that U.S. Fed is going to raise rates
* The markets want to blame the market correction on China but that is not why our market had a correction
* Emerging market currencies are taking the brunt of the selling by those who are expecting a Fed rate hike
* The euro is very strong today, and the dollar index is declining
* The euro is going to go on a big move, especially if the Fed caves
* Gold is up $80 in the last 2 weeks
* What happened to the theory that gold will collapse below 1000?
* Two weeks ago hedge funds were for the first time net short gold
* How is that trade working out for them now?
* A lot of people are trapped short the euro and short gold
* Now pro-dollar bets are pressing smaller currencies
* This is the last throes of the dollar bull, based on the rate hikes that aren't going to happen
* At the end of the 6 or 7 year journey, there can't be a rate hike
* If the Fed actually raises rates, they lose credibility because they will have to immediately reverse course
* If they do not raise rates, they can say caution is needed because of another dip in the recession
* This way they don't have to admit that the policy was a failure
* The only economic data that came out today was the August Manufacturing PMI number - expected to improve over last month
* It dropped again to 52.9 - the lowest level since October 2013, and the biggest miss in 2 years
* If the Fed is truly data dependent it would have already admitted that it can't raise rates
* At the end of 2014, I predicted that 2015 would be a much weaker economy than forecasted
* I was right about that
* I thought by now the Fed would have admitted that the economy is too weak for a rate hike
* But the Fed just keeps talking about a potential rate hike as though it were a real possibility
* This is a very dangerous game
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/22/2015 • 27 minutes, 27 seconds
FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed Rate Hike Rocket Not Ready for September Liftoff – Ep. 103
* Today the FOMC minutes were released at 2:00 today and this is the last look inside the head of the FOMC members before September
* Now expectations are being pushed back to December
* Gold and silver prices were up today in spite of expected hawkish Fed comments
* We are at more than a one-month high in the gold price now above 1130 against a backdrop of extreme bearishness suggests we've seen the low in this cycle
* Silver was down yesterday and recovered dramatically today which suggests an upward trend
* There is no more upside in the "Fed is raising rates" trade
* The Fed may not raise rates at all, or say they might not raise rates again
* Is the Fed raising rates just so they can cut them? Raising rates will accelerate the recession
* Whether the Fed raises rates or does not raise them, this may be the end of the dollar rally and the end of the gold and silver decline
* The FOMC minutes do not indicate a plan for a rate hike in the future
* The Fed does not want to admit we're not progressing in the direction the Fed wants; we're moving the other way.
* Case in point: the Empire State Manufacturing Index came out on Monday
* Last month, in July the Index was 3.86% - a low number
* The consensus for August was a slight improvement to 4.75%
* We actually got -14.92%
* This is the lowest number since April of 2009 and the biggest miss since 2010
* The Fed is worried that there is not enough inflation
* There's not enough growth and the job market is not there yet
* If the Fed is further away from their goal than they have been in this ridiculous monetary experiment of zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing
* Walmart earnings are down - blaming weak earnings on the strong dollar
* How much weaker will their earnings be with a weak dollar?
* Americans are spending more money on food - inflation that is not being measured
* The Stock Market is still selling off, because a rate hike is not priced in, as it is in the currency markets
* This would be the first Fed rate hike in a decelerating economy
* This is not a normal period, so don't expect the stock market to behave normally
* Now, people are now starting to figure out that the Fed's process is not so smooth
* The stock market will trend down until the Fed comes clean and admits that it cannot raise rates
* This is just a lag between QE3 AND QE4
* Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong and when it comes to this Fed and this monetary policy, Murphy is going to look like an optimistPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/20/2015 • 20 minutes, 25 seconds
Don’t Expect a Normal Reaction to an Abnormal Situation – Video Blog
* On Friday we finally got the Non-Farm Payroll numbers for July
* The consensus is that this reports indicates that an interest rate hike is inevitable
* This is the rate hike that everybody has been expecting and this report see
* The report is weak, relative to previous months, but slightly ahead of the consensus
* It seems like we are going in the wrong direction
* Labor Force Participation Rate is stagnant at the lowest in decades
* Q2 GDP was much lower than expected
* the Atlanta GDP Now Forecast for Q3 at 1% - a third of the official forecast
* If the Fed was not willing to raise rates last year, when the economy grew at 5%, why would they raise rates now?
* The Fed may have backed themselves into a corner where they have to raise rates
* If so, Yellen has already prepared the market for a tiny raise
* They recognize that the market is fragile
* It would be a more credible move for the Fed to not raise rates at all
* The market's reaction to the jobs data and the "certainty" that rates are going up
* The dollar sold off somewhat
* Gold rose slightly
* Higher interest rages are expected to be bullish for the dollar - Why didn't the dollar rise?
* The old adage, "Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact"
* If the Fed raises rates in September, it will be the most highly anticipated rate hike ever
* If the market buys on the anticipation of a rate hike, the actual rate hike will be the sell signal
* The market is telling us it has gained all that it is going to gain from any future rate hike
* The Fed will deliver much less in the way of rate hike than the market expects
* The reaction in the stock market was more interesting - The market was down again
* The longest losing streak in the Dow in about 4 years
* The fact that the U.S stock market is still falling indicates whereas the currency markets may have factored in a rate hike, the equity markets have not
* I have been hearing the refrain,"There is no reason to fear a rate hike!"
* This is a very naive to look at the market because there is no historical precedent for interest rates to stay low for so long
* These are not "normal" times
* More importantly, the market only expects a rate hike if the economy get better
* But now the data shows that the economy is continuing to slow down
* The crowd that believes a rate hike will not harm the economy should reassess their thinking
* Corporate earnings, already under pressure will be further weakened by an interest rate hike
* The consumer is barely surviving with rates at zero
* 2015 is probably going to be the weakest year of the entire so-called recovery
* If the Fed really begins to raise interest rates, what is going to happen in 2016?
* We will be in a bear market, the real estate market will drop and a recession will follow
* The Fed's only medicine at that point will be QE
* The truth is, the economy did not need the first round of QE and it nees QE4 even less
* This is going to be the mother of all money drops and all the people who have been saying,"The Fed was right!" are taking a premature victory lap
* Hopefully it will shock the Keynesians into abandoning central banking and central planning
* And finally embracing a real market recovery based on free market principles
* Those of us who have seen the writing on the wall will be rewarded in the investment front
* For having the fortitude to maintain our positions and not throw in a winning handPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/11/2015 • 24 minutes, 57 seconds
Will The Bad News Finally Matter? – Ep. 101
* One piece of positive economic news ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July surged to 60.3 - highest number in 10 years
* The ADP Employment Report came in at 185,000 jobs, well below the consensus
* June Trade Deficit rose 7.1% - in line with expectations
* June Layoffs rose to 105,696 biggest layoff number in 6 years
* Consumer Comfort Index down to 40.3 second lowest number since November
* The Atlanta Fed dropped a bombshell forecasting Q3 at just 1%
* Given this slowdown, could we possibly have a rate hike?
* The stock market has had 6 consecutive down days
* The stocks with no earnings are doing the best
* Very reminiscent of the dot com era
* The "story stocks" are selling in 2015
* Companies that actually have earnings are experiencing the greatest pressure on their share price
* Every time we have a dip in the stock market, the Fed always comes to the rescue
* Why wait until the economy is slowing down to raise rates?
* They can't do that this time, unless they want to abandon their rate hike rhetoric
* They will have to take the rate hikes off the table
* Janet Yellen continues to say rate hikes are data dependent
* The data has been bad for quite a while
* The economy is growing at the slowest pace of the entire "recovery"
* All the Fed can do is go back to the drawing board with more QE, because they can't admit that it never worked
* The money printing is just getting started
* Not that it is going to work, but it is the only policy remedy the Fed has
* Some stocks are really getting beaten up as earnings continue to disappoint
* This topping pattern has got to worry the Fed
* Any rate hike will accelerate the decline
* We have a stock market bubble and raising rates will prick that bubble
* Ben Bernanke created the stock market bubble thinking the "wealth effect" would cure the economy
* Bernanke would not acknowledge that bubbles weaken the economy because it was not politically advantageous
* The First Republican Debate was held tonight, so please follow me on Twitter for my comments
* Donald Trump is far and away the leader in the polls and he is one of the few candidates who have been critical of the Fed
* The only other candidate in the race who knows anything about the Fed is Rand Paul
* Tomorrow could be a big day - the question is, if we get a bad jobs number, will we finally have a reaction in the currency markets?
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/10/2015 • 20 minutes, 58 seconds
Upon What Data Does the Fed Depend? – Ep. 100
* This is my 100th Podcast
* This new format allows for timely analysis when is is most convenient for me and for you, the listener
* Please share these podcasts, to get this valuable information out
* My podcasts can be accessed on YouTube, on iTunes and other podcast sites and right here on my website
* Also don't forget to check out my Twitter feed, because I comment much more frequently on daily economic news
* Check out my post on Facebook about the CEO who established a $70,000 minimum salary for all his workers, and the latest news is that his policy is about to take the company down
* Today a bombshell was dropped on the labor markets on Friday in the form of Employment Cost Index
* Measures the cost to employers: wages and benefits
* The expected increase was .6, but the actual number came in at just .2 for the quarter
* This the weakest number since 1982, since they began keeping records
* Janet Yellen has been saying that improvements in the labor market must precede a rate hike
* This is understood to mean wages, labor participation rate and full time vs part time jobs
* We're 0 for three, right now - all three are falling
* As soon as this number came out, they dollar sold hard
* But then, the dollar clawed its way back, and gold was down again - gold stocks got crushed - Why?
* Jon Hilsenrath, the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, came out with an article, speaking for the Fed, stating that the Fed does not need wage growth to hike rates
* Really? The Fed is going out of its way to preserve the pretense that it can actually raise rates
* They are seeking the psychological effect of rate hikes without the real world damage of actual rate hikes
* If the Fed still believes it won't raise rates unless the labor market improves and they are taking wage hikes off the table, then what are they waiting for?
* The other two remaining criteria are still down
* Janet Yellen still says she's data dependent and all the data that she is depending on is negative
* The stock market looks very toppy - it looks like it will roll over and when it does the Fed will bring in the cavalry in the form of stimulus
* The Fed built the recovery on a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble
* Ben Bernanke's goal for 7 years was to create a "wealth effect" on assets that are now at risk - they are not going to let them collapse
* All of the data would argue for no rate hike in September
* Janet Yellen is implying, by talking about rate hikes, that she believes that the economy is going to improve, when all signs indicate the opposite
* Therefore traders are ignoring bad economic data because they trust that Janet Yellen believes the economy will improve soon
* Don't pay any attention to the man behind the curtain, because Janet Yellen says the bad news is not real
* We can all see the negative data, but no one wants to acknowledge it because Janet Yellen is not recognizing it publicly
* They buy the dollar, they sell gold and there is a dichotomy between those who don't own gold and have no ability to deliver it and are selling gold to those who don't actually want it - they are gambling on the price of gold
* The amount of gold being gambled is greater than ever before
* Sales for those who want to hold gold are skyrocketing - the mints are running out of supply
* We are running out of some of our silver
* Schiff Gold
* Our customers who buy gold and silver are not offering to sell - they are buying more
* They are reacting to lower prices
* On the other side of the coin, clients are reacting negatively to the high dollar weighing on the relative value of foreign stocks
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
8/4/2015 • 30 minutes, 15 seconds
Worst Recovery Since WWII Just Got Worse – Ep. 99
* This morning we got the first look at Q2 GDP
* Q1 had been reported most recently at -.2
* Everybody was looking for an upward revision due to the double seasonal adjustments
* The revision brought Q1 into the black, but only by .6
* Q2 expectation was 2.9; instead it came in at 2.3
* I had mentioned that at best, Q2 GDP would be in the low 2's, which is what we have
* After revisions, however, we could end up at below 2 for Q2
* Wall Street and the Fed were too optimistic about Q2
* Now previous GDP years have been revised, with the net effect of lowering U.S. GDP growth almost 1 percentage point for the past three years
* After revisions, the average growth rate is 2% per year
* 2015 Q1 & Q2 average GDP growth rate is just 1.45%
* The worst first half of the "recovery"
* What is the point of raising rates now, when the economy is at its weakest?
* The Fed is still waiting to see improvements in the labor market
* Unemployment is low
* The Fed is waiting to see increases in wage growth and in labor force participation
* It is unlikely that there will be more part-time workers finding full time jobs
* The Fed is still putting on a show, pretending that a rate hike will be appropriats
* This recovery is the weakest recovery in the modern era, since WWII
* We have had the most Keynesian monetary stimulus ever
* The Keynesians will not consider that their policies are an economic sedative
* Even though this is the biggest economic ever, the Keynesians still want more
* Redbook Year-Over-Year Same Store Sales rose by just 1%
* Last year, the year-over-year growth was 3%
* Pundits blame poor retail sales on "hot weather"
* People aren't shopping because they aren't making enough money
* The U.S. home ownership rate fell to a new low of 63.4%
* The result of government efforts to increase home ownership is the the lowest rate since 1967
* Rental prices are at an all time record high
* July Consumer Confidence plunged from 99.8 in June to 90.9 in July
* As evidence continues to pour in that the U.S. economy is weaker than the government and the press report, the dollar remains high
* Gold is not getting a rally from the economic news
* Shorting of gold by speculators is a dangerous game, as there is no indication that the price of gold overvalued
* It's not the traders who are buying gold. It's the strong, long-term holders that are doing all the buyingPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/31/2015 • 21 minutes, 8 seconds
Fed Leaks, Fast Food, Housing & Gold – Ep.98
* The Dow Jones had its worst week since January - closed the week at 17,568, down 518 points
* Friday's drop alone accounted for 163 points
* Capital One had a huge earnings miss and announced big layoffs
* Big losses on bad debt
* All the economic data from this year has been negative
* There is no precedent for the Fed to raise rates when all economic indicators are down
* Normally The Fed stimulates when the economy is down
* The most interesting economic news on Friday was a leak from the Federal Reserve
* Fed employees' internal projections are way below the Fed's public estimates
* Projections go all the way out to 2020 and can only amount to guesses
* The document is posted on my Facebook page
* Real GDP: 2015: 2.31 way below the official forecast but still overly optimistic
* Real GDP for 2016: 2.38 - 2017: 2.17 - 2018:1.76 - 2019:1.75 - 2020:1.74
* This shows an average of under 2% for the next 5 years
* If the Fed believes its staff's estimates, why would they be talking about raising rates?
* Inflation numbers are even more difficult to believe:
* 2015: 1.15 - 2016: 1.54 - 2017:1.76 - 2018:1.89 - 2019: 1.92 - 2020: 1.94
* How can they possibly know? It looks like they just picked numbers somewhere below 2%
* They even have the core PCE
* 2015: 1.33 - 2016: 1.52 - 2017: 1.78 - 2018: 1.9 - 2019: 1.92 - 2020: 1.94
* Fed Funds Numbers:
* 2015: .35%(implies one rate hike) - 2016: 1.26% - 2017: 2.12% - 2018: 2.8% - 2019: 3.1% - 202 : 3.34%
* After 5 years of tightening rates would still be at historically low levels
* This indicates how little confidence the Fed has in the economy
* They predict the yield on the 10-year note to rise 2.63% in 2015 up to 4.2 in 5 years
* One of the most ridiculous assumptions is unemployment: 2015: 5.34% - 2016: 5.24% - 2017: 5.18 - 2018: 5.15 - 2019: 5.15 - 2020: 5.16
* These are all just guesses. How do they know?
* This shows by the Fed's own estimates that employment is not expected to improve
* Th
* The Fed expects the economy to grow even slower over the next 5 years than during the preceding 5 years
* The Fed is either ignoring staff's numbers to paint a rosy picture or they don't trust their own staff
* I think the market can't handle the truth and that may have been the reason for Friday'd drop in the Dow
* The only thing that will stop the market from going down is some talk from Janet Yellen to dial back the rate hikes and to open the door to QE4
* Another number that came out on Friday which confirms the slowdown in the economy is the new home sales
* The current rise in new home sales is primarily for those trying to beat the Fed
* June's number was awful: 482,000 against an expectation of 550,000
* The last 2 month's estimates were revised down
* The July plunge was the biggest number since November of 2014, and the biggest miss in a year
* There is also an interesting statistic on new homes: prices are continuing to rise
* It now requires 10 times your salary to buy a new home
* In the 1950's it took 2 times a year's salary to buy a new home
* All the government spending on "affordable housing" has managed to increase the cost of a home from twice a worker's salary to ten times a worker's salary
* That is a 500% increase - that is far beyond failure
* This also illustrates how much our standard of living has fallen
* New York State passed a minimum wage of $15/hr, which applies to chains of over 30 restaurants
* Because employers cannot be forced to pay wages higher than workers' productivity allows, employers will be forced to fire some employees and will seek automation to replace unskilled workers.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/25/2015 • 40 minutes, 59 seconds
Gold’s 50-Dollar Sunday Night Collapse Explained – Ep. 97
* Today's Podcast is entirely devoted to gold and gold stocks
* Last night, in just a few minutes, gold dropped $50
* One or more major sell orders hit the market at the same time and gold went down below $1100
* It was down $20 by the time New York trading opened and by market close gold was down around $37 on the day
* Silver was down only about .15 today
* Why was all that gold dumped? The goal could not have been to get a good price - the goal was to knock the price down
* The HUI was down 10% on the day
* This bear market in gold stocks is now bigger than the one from 1996 to 2000
* Gold stocks are much cheaper today than they were at the end of the dot com bubble
* If this a measure of trust in central bankers, the market is expressing greater confidence in Janet Yellen than it did in Alan Greenspan in 1999-2000,
* We know how badly that turned out for stocks and how bullish it turned out for gold
* The timing of this selloff comes on the heels of the media's spin on Janet Yellen's recent Congressional testimony
* But the real news that ignited the sell-off was China's admission that they have gold reserves and in fact they intend to add to those reserves, surprising the market
* If China was lying about how much gold they have had for the last six years, why does anyone believe they are telling the truth now?
* I think they are still lying - being strategic
* They want to get the price of gold down because they still want to buy a lot more gold
* If China still needs more gold, eventually this will bring the price of gold up
* Also a very negative WSJ article compared gold to the "pet rock" craze
* This is the same nonsense that proliferated in the 1990's
* The WSJ article describes gold investment as "a leap of faith" relative to dollar or stock investments
* Gold should not be compared to stocks - it is currency, a commodity
* Gold has intrinsic value, whereas the dollar is a fiat currency, backed by faith alone
* Gold has had value for 5,000 years - you don't need ot have faith, you just own it
* There will always be a use for gold
* Why have faith in central bankers when everybody who has put their faith in central bankers in the past has been burned
* An article on Zero Hedge compared the WSJ op-ed to a similar one from 1999
* The title was, "Who Needs Gold, When You Have Alan Greenspan?"
* They called him "the maestro"
* He gave us the dot com bubble, the real estate bubble and the financial crisis of 2008
* That's what happened to the people who put their faith in Alan Greenspan
* Over the next 12 years after that article was written, gold appreciated 650%
* Who needs gold when you have Alan Greenspan? Everybody
* Today Alan Greenspan recommends gold
* If we've got Janet Yellen, then we need gold
* Greenspan wrote the playbook that Bernanke and Yellen are expanding and he knows it does not work
* When you have Janet Yellen, you need all the gold you can get
* Fortunately, it's a lot cheaper to buy gold and it is a lot cheaper to buy the companies that mine it
* What could go wrong? Everything - what went wrong in 1999 and in 2008?
* The same thing that went wrong then will go wrong now, because it is the same central bankers
* And the same players on Wall Street either don't recognize the danger or are pretending it doesn't exist and abandoning everything we know about monetary policy
* This is the biggest bubble yet - the entire economy is dependent on bubbles
* Just when people trust the central bankers the most, that's the best time to buy gold
* When this market turns it's going to be vicious
* Once the market turns,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/21/2015 • 22 minutes, 41 seconds
Yellen Almost Admits Economy Too Weak to Raise Rates – Ep. 96
* Today Janet Yellen goes back up the Hill for the second of her 2-day Congressional testimony and the press has already made headlines about what she did not say
* According to the headlines, Yellen's "hawkish" testimony reflected that she is putting the Fed on a path to hike rates later later this year
* That is not what she said
* From her prepared, written testimony, which was carefully crafted for all eyes, this is what she said:
* "If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely will make it appropriate at some time this year to raise the Federal Funds rate target, thereby beginning to normalize the stance on monetary policy."
* This sentence starts with a big condition: "If the economy evolves as we expect"
* When has the economy ever evolved as the Fed expected? - Probably never
* Even if the economy improves, those improvements may not live up to the Fed's unspecified expectations
* "Economic conditions might make it appropriate to raise rates-
* Not result in raising rates, of require us to raise rates - just because it is appropriate to raise rates doesn't mean the Fed will raise them
* If the Fed was going to do what was appropriate, they would have raised rates a long time ago
* Zero percent interest rates was never appropriate
* Yellen herself has said she was likely to leave interest rates lower than would be appropriate because of "special circumstances"
* Even if it is appropriate, there is no commitment to raise rates at any point this year
* If Janet Yellen really said what the headlines infer, she would have said:
* "Given the strength in the economy we will be raising interest rates later this year
* She said nothing like that
* The Fed went way out of its way to commit to nothing
* Yet that's not the way the media is covering this
* Why is that? Everyone wants to pretend that the economy is good and that the Fed is going to normalize interest rates
* All of this make-believe causes the dollar to rally and gold to go down
* By talking about raising interest rates, the Fed is pretending that the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates without actually inflicting the pain of higher interest rates on all those addicted to the bubble economy
* Yellen's responses to to questions during the Q&A were equally dovish
* At one point in particular Yellen admitted that we've had zero percent interest rates for a long time and will proceed slowly in any attempt to raise rates
* If we notice higher rates are causing pain, we will slow down
* What is hawkish about that?
* When Paul Volker raised rates to 20% of course he knew it would hurt the economy in the short term, but he knew it was needed
* Yellen is worried that if the patient makes a bad face, she will discontinue the "medicine"
* It is impossible to raise rates without hurting the economy, especially because a large part of our economy is now dependent on zero interest rates
* Higher interest rates will expose a lot of unsound business decisions
* It's not the economy that will be hurt, but the bubble - zero percent interest rates are the fuel for the bubble
* Zero percent interest rates are more essential now than they were six years ago
* Now we have much more debt to service
* An interest rates hike would quickly wipe out any minimal gain from a stronger economy
* The reality is the economy is already weakening
* 70% of our GDP is consumption fueled by debt
* Yellen said that zero percent interest rates may be a problem in the long run
* It's the long run now
* The deficit is already unsustainable
* One of the most interesting rates went unanswered:
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/16/2015 • 31 minutes, 38 seconds
The Real Reason Greece Folded – Ep. 95
* As I have been saying all along, the Greek Prime Minister capitulated to German demands
* In fact, he is agreeing to a plan that is more onerous on Greece than the one he encouraged his own people to vote down just over a week ago
* Those who thought Greece held all the cards, that the Eurozone would risk a domino effect of other nations leaving the euro
* I felt Germany held the stronger hand and would push Greece from the Eurozone rather than cave in to Greek demands
* Greece is going to stay a part of the Eurozone, at least for now, because it is the only way they can get the bailout funds they need to sustain Greek socialism
* Greek socialism will be mitigated to a degree, by the austerity demands to cut government spending
* They don't need higher taxes
* If Germany were to allow the Greek debt to be forgiven, the moral hazard for other struggling states would be enormous
* The message Germany is sending is that it did not go well for Greece, it is not going to go well for any country who refuses to get their economic house in order
* Germany demonstrated that membership in the Eurozone is not for life
* This will force other countries to get their house in order
* I don't agree with Greece's choice, although it might be better for Greece in the short than leaving the Eurozone
* No Greek politician wants to accept responsibility for the austerity measures - it is easier to throw the blame over to Germany of Brussels
* Push comes to shove no politician is going to be able to undo Eurozone austerity measures without having to face the music
* Greece has run out of other people's money to fund socialism
* Now their debt to GDP will be over 200%
* They can't pay their debt now - how are they going to pay off a larger debt?
* Part of the austerity measures, included a €50 billion privatization program, similar to the IMP's recommendation years ago
* Greek government assets will be sold off for the benefit of foreign creditors
* I think it would have been best for Europe to kick Greece out and loan them no more money
* The euro is down today, but I think it is a dip to buy the euro
* This move will show the markets that the euro is here to stay
* Greece could have done one of two things:
* Greece could have refused the aid package and defaulted on the debt
* If they got kicked out of the euro, they could still use the euro as currency, they just would not have access to the ECB for bailout
* If this happened, banks would fail; the government would have to downsize, pensions would have to be cut;
* Without a tax income in euros, the government would have to operate on a balanced budget
* Eventually, relieved of the debt they currently owe, they would be about to re-establish better credit
* Greece could then enact real tax reform, become a tax haven in Europe and that would grow the Greek economy
* The liberals will point to Greek economic challenges as proof that cuts in government spending do not work
* It's not about asking the people who are already pulling the wagon to pull harder; it's about the people who are riding in the wagon to get out and start pulling themselves
* Greece needs government level austerity
* The Greek shipping industry is vibrant because it is not taxed
* If shipping is now taxed, it will drive the industry away from Greece
* In order to stimulate business with lower taxes, they would have to leave the Eurozone
* Another choice is to establish a sound drachma backed by gold
* Where would they get the gold? From privatization of assets
* I would use the proceeds to back up my currency
* Alternatively, they could back the currency with a Foreign Exchange Reserve
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/14/2015 • 21 minutes, 26 seconds
Yellen Continues to Talk What the Fed Can’t Walk – Ep. 94
* This podcast comes from my hotel room in Las Vegas, as I am attending Freedom Fest
* Janet Yellen received a standing ovation at the end of her talk, and I can't understand why...
* Headlines from the talk report "Rates to go up by the end of the year"
* Actual quote:"Based on my outlook, I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later to take the first step to raise the Federal Funds Rate, and thus begin normalizing monetary policy."
* "I want to emphasize that the course of the economy and inflation remains highly uncertain, and unanticipated developments could delay or accelerate the first step."
* In other words, the process will be delayed because whatever happens will be unanticipated or unannounced because the last thing Yellen wants to do is to admit that she can't raise rates.
* We have gone 9 years without a rate hike
* The market is not prepared for a rate hike given the enormity of the debt
* The U.S. owes more money than all the other debtor nations combined
* We can only pretend to be solvent and zero percent interest rates are a big part of that pretense
* We will not be able to service our debt under normalization
* Yellen states that the labor market is continuing to improve
* No, it's not
* Didn't she see Friday's jobs report, based on downward revisions to prior months?
* Didn't she see the plunge in the labor force participation rate to a new low since 1977?
* Didn't she see the all the part-time jobs that have replaced the lost full-time jobs?
* Didn't she see yesterday's weekly jobless claims report that surged to 297,000?
* Yellen previously stated that she would not raise interest rates until the labor market improves, and since then, the labor market has worsened
* Wholesale inventories for May up by .8%
* Year over year, sales are down 3.4%, the biggest decline since the 2008 financial crisis
* Greece is forced to revisit austerity measures as Germany refuses to budge
* Greece realizes they don't want to leave the Eurozone
* The moral hazards are such that Europe can't budge
* I dont'know how the Greek economy can grow, given the enormity of their debt in the hands of a socialist government
* Europe needs to keep pressure on Greece in order to maintain standards for weaker economies
* The Chinese stock market "collapse" is being overstated in the press
* Even though the Chinese market is down 30% in a short period of time the Chinese market is still positive on the calendar year
* The U.S. market is down
* In April of this year, Chinese stocks took off because changes in Chinese government policy, making it possible for investors to own certain stocks for the first time
* It should be no surprise that when a rush of investors tried to buy the new stocks, the price went up
* At some point there is going to be profit-taking, sparking panic selling
* This is normal market behavior
* The market just retraced its steps, leaving gains achieved prior to April
* The fundamentals that drove the market higher earlier this year are still solid, and they're in place
* The dip in the market is a buying opportunity
* The next round of gains will be more sustainable
* The Chinese government exacerbated the volatility, making a classic mistake by chasing the market
* U.S. economic pundits are commenting on the absurdity of the valuations on some of the Chinese stocks
* They are living in a glass house - why are they throwing stones?
* The same can be said about some U.S. stocks with ridiculous valuations
* The Chinese monetary policy is creating issues, but beneath the bubble is a legitimate economy with production growth, savings and investment
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/11/2015 • 20 minutes, 30 seconds
Out of the Frying Pan Into the Fire – Ep.93
* Over the weekend the Greeks voted no to the Eurozone bailout terms
* The Greeks ars still hoping for a better deal, hoping to avoid austerity
* The irony is that the consequences of their vote will bring on even more austerity, as a return to the drachma will result in a lower-valued currency
* For example, pensioners will be paid not in fewer euros but drachmas that buy less
* This will mean a huge collapse in the standard of living in Greece - far worse than the "austerity" called for under the Eurozone bailout terms
* There is no way out without substantive reforms, particularly in smaller government
* The markets are reacting adversely because they want to extend and pretend
* The euro will be stronger without Greece, despite comments in the press to the contrary
* Fears of "contagion" - other countries leaving - are unfounded
* Greece is headed for hardship, but they will have to impose austerity from within they could rebound
* Greece has a lot of potential, they have natural resources and a thriving shipping industries
* The secret of the success of the shipping industry is that it is not taxed
* The answer will be fewer taxes and less government spending
* Short term, leaving the Eurozone will be negative for Greece
* The Greek vote will be positive for the euro
* There is still a flight to the dollar for safety over gold
* The reason gold has not benefited from Greek instability is that the dollar is still viewed as a safe haven
* More and more economic data reveals how weak the U.S. Eeconomy is
* This week the Service Sector PMI for June contracted from 56.8 in May to 54.8
* More and more people are looking for a rate hike in December rather than September, but they are still buying the narrative that interest rate hikes are feasible
* This belief supports the dollar over gold
* Our economy is weaker than other countries whose interest rates are higher
* When are the dollar buyers going to realize that they have jumped out of the frying pan into the fire?
* The dollar is the grandaddy of the fiat currencies
* In light of continued weak economic data and further deterioration in the job market, the Fed will have to come out with another round of QE
* That will be a game changer
* All the economic news around the world is fundamentally good for gold
* At some point the speculative forces that are restraining gold will not hold up
* All that stands behind the U.S. dollar is faith
* At one point people had faith in Greece, they had faith in Puerto Rican government bonds and in sub-prime mortgages - and then they didn't
* When we were on the gold standard, we had real value backing up our money
* All that stands between us and economic collapse is the faith we have in a worthless piece of paperPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/8/2015 • 25 minutes, 30 seconds
Labor Force Participation Rate Plunges to 38-Year Low – Ep. 92
* Happy 4th of July to everyone
* Unfortunately, we have given up our independence to government tyranny
* I will be back on the radio again - I'll be on the Alex Jones Show every first and third Friday of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll numbers come out
* I will be doing tomorrow's show - the second hour of the show
* The Non-Farm Payroll Report came out early this week because of the 4th of July holiday
* The consensus forecast of 230,000 jobs was close to the actual number 223,000
* The unemployment rate of 5.5% last month was expected to come in at 5$% - actually came in at 5.3%, the lowest unemployment rate in 7 years
* Great news, right? Not great news
* The devil is in the details
* The Labor Force Participation Rate - 62.9 last month - plunged down to 62.6%
* This is the lowest rate since 1977
* 432,000 people dropped out of the labor force in June - twice the number of people who got jobs in June
* Once again, these new jobs are low-paying service sector jobs
* During the Obama "recovery" we have lost 1.4 million manufacturing jobs and gained 1.4 million wait staff and bartender jobs
* According to the Household Survey 640,000 Americans left the labor force in June
* Now we have a record 93.6 million Americans no longer in the labor force
* The Household Survey reports 349,000 jobs were lost during the month
* The only net gain - 161,000 part time jobs - represent a net loss
* The Household Survey shows that we lost good jobs
* When asked about the Labor Force Participation Rate number, Secretary of Labor Perez commented, "One month does not a trend make."
* This trend has been going down every month of every year that President Obama has been in office
* Janet Yellen announced that the Fed would not start raising rates without "further improvement in the labor market"
* She specifically cited the Labor Force Participation Rate and proliferation of part-time jobs as troubling trends
* We are now further from that goal
* The demographic leaving the labor force are young people who cannot find jobs
* Average Hourly Earnings, to increase .2, actually came in flat, at zero
* Last month's .3 increase was revised down to .2, failing to beat the estimate
* Weekly Jobless Claims expected to come in at 270,000, actually came in at 281,000 and I think this number is going to go higher
* There have been fewer hires and fewer fires than expected because the estimates were based on the Birth/Death model, that is proving inaccurate
* Factory Orders are down for 9 of the last 10 months - this month we were looking for -.3% and we got -1%
* April was originally reported as -.4 but was revised down to -.7
* Year over year Factory Orders are down 6.3% (adjusted)
* The only time we have seen numbers this weak is during a recession
* The economy is in worse shape now that when QE3 was launched
* Yet the markets did not react to these bad numbers
* They still cling to the narrative that the Fed is going to raise rates because the U.S. economy is in good shape
* Article on Motley Fool refers to me as someone who was "right for the wrong reason"
* The misquoted me on my prediction on (mortgage)interest rates going up
* After I made that statement, interest rates did go up for 2 years - they did not go down until after the bubble burst
* The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5-1/2 percent
* This quote was taken out of context - read my 2007 book, "Crash Proof"
* There are dozens of articles about the real estate bubble 2004-2007
* The record shows that I was right for all the right reasons
* I did think the dollar would go down after the housing bubble burst,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/3/2015 • 22 minutes, 35 seconds
Obama Takes the Credit, Workers Suffer the Consequences – Ep.91
* One more time President Obama seeks to buy Democratic votes with a free lunch by appealing to workers
* Promising more overtime pay, to go into effect in 2016
* Raises the threshold for overtime pay requirements
* Workers who earn salaries of $50,000 or less must be paid overtime for hours worked over 40 hours per week
* This prevents workers who put in extra hours on their own time to try to advance
* This could cause employers to reduce salaries to factor in overtime
* It will be harder for employers to change existing work agreements
* This will adversely affect workers on flexible schedules, such as those who work at home in 2016
* Employers will have to seek more control over workers' schedules
* New law will disproportionately hurt women, the very constituency Democrats claim to protect
* Those who have variable workloads throughout the year will be adversely affected
* This law eliminates choice and increases costs, but it's great politics
* Followup on Puerto Rico: Minimum Wage
* Puerto Rico is an example of the adverse effects of a minimum wage law that has devastated an economy
* Puerto Rico's has more than 20% unemployment
* Puerto Rico labor force participation rate is 42-43%
* The minimum wage has priced out more than half of the labor force
* There is no entry level work in Puerto Rico
* If the minimum wage is so good, why does it not work in Puerto Rico?
* Puerto Rico is a real-life case study on the adverse effects of minimum wage laws
* Puerto Rico's only advantage is its tax law for incoming businesses which will increase demand for labor
* Recent comments on my last podcast questioned my support for Puerto Rico
* I never advised buying Puerto Rican debt - I knew it was a problem
* It makes sense to move to Puerto Rico to take advantage of the new tax lawsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7/1/2015 • 20 minutes, 34 seconds
For U.S., Puerto Rico Bigger Tragedy than Greece – Ep 90
* Global stock markets got beaten up overnight and the carnage continued here in the U.S.
* Dow Jones down 350 points by closing bell - biggest point loss of the year
* NASDAQ down 122 points
* Possible Grexit sparked sell off in FOREX markets
* Banks in Greece closing, sending masses to the ATM machines
* Euro ended up closing near the highs of the day - nearly to $113
* The dollar was weak all day against the Yen and against the Swiss Franc
* There was no safe haven move into the dollar - gold up
* The dollar lost considerable ground against the euro
* Another confirmation that the dollar's rally is over
* My newsletter released today does a good job comparing the U.S. vs global markets
* The U.S. did well against the international market from 1996 to 2000
* In 2008 the U.S markets went sideways and the markets I recommend skyrocketed
* We have been in a period similar to '96 - 2000 and now we are about to see returns even greater than the 2008 gains in our markets
* Regardless of the direction that Greece goes in this weekend's referendum, the dollar is going down against the euro
* Puerto Rican governor finally admitted the obvious - repaying their debt is impossible
* Puerto Rican debt is a fraction of the U.S. national debt
* If it is mathematically impossible for Puerto Rico to pay their debt, why does anyone think the U.S. will be able to eventually pay off its debt?
* The only way we can pretend to pay our debt is for the Fed to do it for us by creating inflation
* This is yet another reason why the Fed is not going to raise rates in September
* We continue to get recession-like economic data, despite the fact that the Fed is still optimistic
* The Federal Reserve is looking for an excuse to not raise interest rates
* Maybe the situation in Greece will provide that excuse
* Maybe it will be the volatility in China
* "External problems" are providing an excuse to not raise rates
* It is important to point out that Puerto Rico would not be experiencing such insurmountable debt if it were not for U.S. policy.
* Puerto Rican debt has seemed attractive with its high yield and triple-tax-exempt status
* Zero interest rates from the Fed, on top of high yields, have caused the debt to seem safe, even though mathematically it cannot be paid
* People may begin to wake up when they realize what's going on in Puerto Rico and that may become an even bigger problem than GreecePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/30/2015 • 26 minutes, 24 seconds
Help Me Correct Wikipedia’s Liberal Bias
[fullwidth background_color="" background_image="" background_parallax="none" parallax_speed="0.3" enable_mobile="no" background_repeat="no-repeat" background_position="left top" video_url="" video_aspect_ratio="16:9" video_webm="" video_mp4="" video_ogv="" video_preview_image="" overlay_color="" overlay_opacity="0.5" video_mute="yes" video_loop="yes" fade="no" border_size="0px" border_color="" border_style="" padding_top="20" padding_bottom="20" padding_left="0" padding_right="0" hundred_percent="no" equal_height_columns="no" hide_on_mobile="no" menu_anchor="" class="" id=""]
[one_full last="yes" spacing="yes" center_content="no" hide_on_mobile="no" background_color="" background_image="" background_repeat="no-repeat" background_position="left top" border_size="0px" border_color="" border_style="" padding="" margin_top="" margin_bottom="" animation_type="" animation_direction="" animation_speed="0.1" class="" id=""]
[fusion_text]
In reviewing my Wikipedia page, I noticed some information that is either wrong or narrowly slanted to promote a negative impression of me. We've tried to correct the issue, but Wikipedia makes it very difficult for anyone directly connected to the person or subject of the page to make changes, claiming "Conflict of Interest". This opens the door, however, for those who have a good grasp of editing Wikipedia but who have a decided "left" slant to claim the substance and the direction of the information. Once it's out there, it is very difficult to fix. Wikipedia wants editors to be unrelated to the subject to make contributions. Below are a few things that should be added to the page. Please feel free to make these additions as you would like. Please note that changes need to be discussed in the "Talk" page, first. Here are Ten Simple Rules for Editing Wikipedia.
[/fusion_text][/one_full][one_full]
[title size="1" content_align="left" style_type="" sep_color="" class="" id=""]On Minimum Wage[/title][fusion_text]
Eliminate the minimum wage so teenagers and other low-skill workers can get jobs, and acquire the on-the-job training necessary to earn higher wages in the future. It should not be illegal for people who lack skills to accept employment. The minimum wage punishes workers by legally preventing them from offer their services below a specified legal minimum. If they do not have the skills to justify that minimum, it is illegal for them to work, even if they can offer some value to employers, just not enough to cover the minimum wage mandated by government. So instead of entry level jobs, that will lead to higher skills and wages in the future, many individuals are rendered legally unemployable. People have a right to accept any job that they personally prefer to unemployment. Government should not substitute its judgement for the judgment of workers.[/fusion_text][/one_full]
[title size="1" content_align="left" style_type="" sep_color="" class="" id=""]The Housing Market[/title][fusion_text]The government should stay out of housing completely. Abolish agencies that loan money or guarantee mortgages etc. no FHA, Fannie, Freddie. No Department of Housing and Urban Development. There should be a free market in housing. What I actually said on the home mortgage deduction was that, absent the repeal of the entire income tax, we should have a flat rate tax with no deductions including home mortgage, but that would include a much lower rate, so that the removal of the home mortgage deduction did not result in higher taxes. It just eliminates the government- created incentive to buy verses rent.[/fusion_text]
Peter Schiff Says The Real Financial C...Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/25/2015 • 21 minutes, 44 seconds
Greece is a Sideshow. U.S. is the Main Event – Ep.89
* It looks like there is going to be some kind of deal to avoid the "Grexit"
* Greek's exit would be great for Europe, but it would not be politically attractive for either side
* As long as Greece stays in the Eurozone, the Greek government can continue to blame Germany or Brussels for their problems
* So-called austerity will continue without any haircut to the debt
* The same is true for cuts to government spending
* The Greek government may increase taxes and/or adjust the retirement age for pension, but no government spending cuts are on the table
* Tax increases will provide more incentive for tax evasion or avoidance by leaving the country
* All talks are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic - extend and pretend
* The markets are higher - the euro down big
* The market is anticipating more cheap money, which would be threatened by a Grexit
* In an ideal world, if Greece were to leave the Eurozone and set themselves up as a bastion of free market capitalism, then they could come back strong
* Given the electorate, this move is unlikely
* Socialism only works in Greece as long as they have another country's money
* The sell-off in gold based on the Fed's dovish statements last week
* The Fed will only raise interest rates nominally in order to keep the market from balance sheet expansion stimulus into its calculations
* Good news from housing numbers - a surge in the Northeast
* Mortgage rates have been rising, although still low. Some buyers are worried about higher rates
* Higher rates, however would price buyers out of the market
* Monday Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -.17, continuing a downtrend consistent with a recession
* May Durable Goods down 1.8% three times lower than expectations
* X transportation met recently reduced expectations
* Durable goods has missed for 5 out of the last 7 moths
* Chicago PMI Manufacturing weaker than expected decrease to 53.4 - now at the lowest level since October 2013
* Manufacturing and production data sis weak - housing numbers are getting a boost from interest rate expectations
* Home ownership rate continues to fall
* Rents are risingPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/23/2015 • 13 minutes, 55 seconds
Yellen Almost Admits Fed Not Ready to Raise Rates
* Today was the expected day for expected rate hikes, indicating economic "lift-off"
* The June rate hike is off the table and everyone is focusing attention on September
* The prepared remarks are just a smokescreen to maintain the pretense that the economy can withstand a rate hike
* The Q&A session after the the prepared remarks were more revealing
* Janet Yellen ducked the question of why people who recommend postponing the rate hike to 2016 are wrong
* Yellen stated that the "dots" used to forecast rates are based on mere projections
* The FOMC is always too optimistic about the economy, so if they are wrong again, the dots are meaningless
* Yellen tacitly admits she is hiding behind the data, stating that even if rates to rise, it will be a nominal amount
* Yellen's response to CNBC's Steve Liesman question regarding what labor milestone would justify a rate hike was especially telling
* She said she needs to see further improvement in the Labor Market before she begins to raise rates
* How much improvement does Yellen expect in the labor market over the next three months?
* There is a good chance that the labor market will not be as strong in the next three months
* She is letting the cat out of the bag; saying that rate hike is not likely in September, either
* Yellen questioned the "obsession" about when rate hikes start because the first rate hike will not necessarily indicate normalization
* She is indicating that a rate hike may be symbolic
* The highly stimulative rate of zero to .25 is only necessary when trying to sustain a bubble
* In response to a question about the Federal Reserve under Greenspan, Yellen indicated that it was a mistake for him to raise rates slowly and methodically
* I was vocal Greenspan's decisions at that time, arguing that his actions were creating the real estate bubble
* Yellen is now moving interest rates even more slowly over a period of 7 years
* I may not be the only person who noticed how dovish Yellen's statements are
* The knee-jerk reaction on the Fed's statement was to buy the dollar, but quickly turned into a selloff, and it intensified during the Q&A session
* The dollar was on the lows of the day as it gets closer to the time rates were expected to raise
* My video blogs are always available on schiffradio.com and on YouTubePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/18/2015 • 19 minutes, 33 seconds
Wall Street Begins to Question Fed’s Narrative – Ep. 88
* Dow under pressure on the back of EU talks with Greece
* There is a lot of room for the market to decline pending the Fed's announcements
* The consensus is that rates will hike September or later
* If Fed does not rates in September, Election year next year might also put off rate hikes
* Bloomberg article quotes B of A hinting that additional stimulus would further damage the economy
* B of A admits this risk has been getting the least amount of attention
* Empire State Manufacturing Index missed 5.9 forecast - came in at -1.98
* May Industrial Production expected +.2 - came in at -.2
* Capacity Utilization dropped 78.3 to 78.1
* Manufacturing down .2
* Industrial Production has been negative for 4 of the last 6 months
* Currency markets still believe Fed will raise rates
* Consumer spending was up in May because of rise in gas prices
* Weekly Jobless claims saw a slight uptick - exceeded forecast
* Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index continues to decline
* Listener's Questions, Peter's Answers to resume on this podcast
* Submit your questions on schiffradio.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/15/2015 • 20 minutes, 4 seconds
Con Job Report – Ep. 87
* Once again, a week of worse than expected economic data punctuated by another better than expected non-farm payroll report from the government
* ADP private sector payroll report was slightly below estimates
* 5,000 manufacturing jobs lost - 3rd consecutive monthly decline
* Unemployment rate dropped
* Labor participation rate up to 62.9 - .2% above lowest point
* Large sector of labor force still comprised of older workers
* Teens, twenties and thirties are at all-time lows
* Older Americans want part-time jobs, so increase of part-time jobs contribute to increase in all jobs
* Given the strong government jobs number, the media is discounting all the weak data, including GDP, productivity, consumer spending and industrial production
* The jobs we're creating do not reflect economic strength
* The weekly unemployment numbers are hovering at 42-year lows
* Does anyone believe that this is the strongest economy in 42 years?
* The hiring numbers are suspect to begin with because of the government's assumptions
* The Trade Deficit dropped not because our exports surged, but because out imports plunged
* Our economy is too weak to support a greater number of imports
* A closer look at the data behind the government jobs number actually supports the rest of the weak economic data
* Personal Income and Spending on the month missed estimates
* May Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly
* April Factory Orders fell by more than expected
* Year over year, orders are down 6.4%
* 6th consecutive month that factory orders have been down year over year
* This has only happened in America during a recession
* Mortgage applications fell sharply on the week - 7.6% decline, led by a 12% decline in re-fi's
* May Services PMI fell to 56.2 - lowest level since January
* ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 55.7 - the lowest level of the year
* The revision to Q1 Productivity - 3.1% decline
* We also had a decline in 2014 Q4
* Corporate profits plunged 5.9% in Q1
* Unit Labor Costs surged by 6.7% - this does not represent wages
* All this data predicts future layoffs
* The Fed knows this, so they are reluctant to raise rates
* The Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index fell to 42.5 the 8th consecutive decline - the first time in its 30 - year history
* The Dow continued to decline on the jobs report
* NASDAQ still hanging in
* Margin debt is at a record high
* The dollar was stronger on the week
* The euro finished positive
* By next year European inflation will force the Bundesbank to retreat from QE
* Gold was down on the week, as euro strength signals QE less likely in Europe
* Expectations of rising interest rates have been suppressing gold, but when reality rears its ugly head, the sellers will be gone and the buyers will be out in full forcePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
6/6/2015 • 30 minutes, 34 seconds
Markets Still Fooled as Fed Plays “Let’s Pretend” – Ep. 86
* Short week closed with some horribly bad news
* People are not paying attention to the data; they are paying attention to the Fed
* Government released revision to the GDP: -.7
* The assumption of deflation is cooked into the number
* Most Q2 data is weak
* Q1 Corporate profits plunged by 5.9%
* JP Morgan announced 5,000 layoffs
* Corporations are already levered up to the max
* May Chicago PMI plunged back down to 46.2 - close to March's -year low
* April Durable Goods fell .5
* March Services PMI fell to 56.4 - second monthly drop
* May Dallas Fed Manufacturing crashed to -20.8; fifth consecutive monthly decline
* The Fed has never predicted a recession; in fact they have forecasted economic growth while in a recession
* Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index: fell for the 7th consecutive week
* There are fewer good jobs available and if someone loses their job the are likely to have to take one they are overqualified for
* The Fed is too concerned about maintaining the illusion of prosperity to allow genuine prosperity
* They are propping up the stock market and the housing market, pretending everything is OK, and allowing the government to continue deficit spending
* People still think the Fed will raise interest rates; the most we would get is a trivial hike< just to say they raised rates to get things back to normal
* There is no more normal anymore; the new normal is interest rates at zero and perpetual QE until the whole thing blows up
* How can we expect to learn from our ancestors when we can't even learn from our own mistakes?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/30/2015 • 18 minutes
Currency Traders Still Buying Rate Hike Rhetoric – Ep. 85
* The U.S. dollar started out this morning on the defensive
* Government released CPI numbers generated a sharp reversal across the board
* Gold sold off, but closed slightly down against the dollar
* April CPI up just .1% on the month; year over year prices dropped -.2%
* Lowest CPI since October 2009
* Core CPI (excludes food & energy) rose .3%
* Biggest monthly jump since March 2006
* News sent dollar up on anticipation that rate hike will be more likely
* Inflation benchmark is just as real as the 6-1/2% unemployment goal
* Traders still haven't figured out that if we ever approach the goal, it will be moved
* Biggest factor within the .3% rise in the Core was +.7% in health care costs
* Biggest increase since January 2007 - prior to Obamacare
* Rising costs will slow consumer spending, weakening the economy and undermining employment
* Yellen in a press conference today did not actually project a rate hike
* It's all about extend and pretend; actually postponing the rate hike will buy the Fed some time before launching QE4
* Increased inflation as the economy cools down means stagflation
* The media is spinning increased inflation as good news
* Bad economic news released yesterday:
* Unemployment numbers came out higher
* Fewer hires mean fewer fires
* Chicago Fed National Activities Index came in at -.15
* Three month moving average down to -.23
* MAY PMI expected to rise to 54.6 unexpectedly declined to 53.8 - lowest lever in 16 months
* Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index continued to slide from 43.5 to 42.4
* May Philadelphia Fed looked for a bounce back to 8; missed expectations with 6.7
* Missed expectations 5 out of the last 6 months
* Existing Home Sales expected improvement over March; dropped to 5.04 million
* Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -13; dropping for 5 consecutive months
* Economic data as bad as 2009 and inflation is getting worse
* Janet Yellen acknowledged underlying issues with unemployment number, mentioned discouraged and part-time workers
* Labor Force Participation Rate is not improving
* Low-skilled jobs in jeopardy with minimum wage hikes
* $15/hr fever will further hurts employment and erodes the tax base
* Higher minimum wage will transform workforce because employers will hire better workers for the higher wages
* Movement will substitute technology for labor costs
* Minimum wage hikes will undermine the economic recovery that Janet Yellen pretends is existing
* So she can continue to pretend that the Fed's monetary policy is working
* And she can pretend that they can actually raise interest rates
* In the unlikely event Yellen tests a rate hike, they will have to acknowledge that they were wrong
* The Fed can always blame the data for deciding not to raise rates and therefore save facePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/23/2015 • 24 minutes, 30 seconds
The Fix Is In. Government to Rig GDP Again. – Ep. 84
* Earlier today latest FOMC minutes released
* Once again the weather is blamed for missed expectations, pretending the economy is better than it is
* Now the Fed dismiss numbers as inaccurate, because seasonal adjustments are off
* Why does the government need to seasonally adjust the numbers
* Yearly GDP is the number that matters
* Once the numbers begin adjusting the numbers you open the floodgates to manipulation and subjectivity
* Wall Street analysts tend to be more optimistic for the first quarter
* Studies show that Consumers spend most money in Q4; by the following Q1 consumers are taking a break
* Same studies show Q2 is usually stronger
* Why does the government have to come back with a new GDP measurement in order to come up with a bigger number?
* To come up with low unemployment numbers they find ways to under-calculate the unemployed and count under-employed
* Analysts are discounting weak data and expecting eventual rate hikes
* The Fed is denying the weak economy not because they want to raise rates, but because they can't admit that their monetary policy has failed
* Mixed economic data came out this week
* Housing Market Expectation Index dropped from 56 in April to 54 in May - missing estimates for fifth time in 6 months
* Housing Starts surged to 6 or 7-year high
* Lingering optimism for a recovery
* Walmart came in far below estimates, attributing miss to the strong dollar
* Walmart is a net importer, so the strong dollar should work in its favor
* Big drop in gasoline prices in Q1 did not provide a boost for Walmart because the underlying economy is weak
* Los Angeles is the largest city in the country to pass the $15/hr minimum wage
* They staggered the increase over 5 years, so adverse effects will not be directly attributed to those who voted for the increased minimum wage
* It will be difficult to measure decisions not to hire as a result of the minimum wage
* The $15/hr minimum wage makes it illegal to hire low-skilled workers for less, preventing them from gaining skills in order to earn more later
* We're hiring at Schiff Gold - If you are interested contact Matthew Malleo 800-465-3160
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/21/2015 • 27 minutes, 5 seconds
Fewer Hires Means Fewer Fires – Ep. 83
* S&P responds to bad news with new high; DJ just barely off record high
* Dollar continues to fall
* The currency traders still have not accepted the significance of bad news
* Lower dollar will be the trend
* Friday got a trifecta of bad economic news
* Thursday Weekly Jobless Claims number declined to 264,000 - lowest weekly jobless claims in 42 years
* Why are there so few job losses? Because so few people are getting hired
* Government numbers come from the Birth/Death Model, which assumes a certain number of businesses created each month
* What if these businesses are not actually created?
* This would explain lower number of unemployment claims
* There's no way we can say that the economy is the best it has been in 42 years
* Empire State Manufacturing Index, which was weak last month, expected to be +5, came in at 3.09; below estimate for the 4th month in a row
* Both Business Expectations and Hiring declined from April to May
* Industrial Production Capacity Utilization was expected to be flat; down again .3%
* This is not the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Industrial Production; longest losing streak since 2009
* Consumer Sentiment Number 95.9 in April - expected to hold steady - came in at 88.6; biggest drop since December 2012, and biggest miss ever
* If the job market is so strong, why is confidence plunging?
* The percentage of employees who fear losing their jobs is at highest level since March of 2009
* The bubble is rapidly deflating
* Unofficially, I think we have been in recession for the entire "recovery"
* The government is not accurately measuring inflation in the GDP deflator
* The Fed has not forecast a single recession
* Recessions always happen contrary to forecasts
* If we are in a recession there can not be a rate hike
* At some point they are going to have to acknowledge that the numbers are not accurate
* The unemployment rate is going to have to tick up at soe point this year
* At some point after the end of the quarter it will become obvious that there is no rate hike coming
* The only question is, What is the Fed going to do?
* The Fed has not managed to shrink the balance sheet, and further QE will take the deficit to a whole new level
* This will put massive downward pressure on the dollar
* Oil prices will spike
* Cheap gas prices did not create a bounce in Q1
* Consumer Confidence will plunge
* Reality is finally going to set in on the failure of the Fed monetary policyPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/17/2015 • 20 minutes, 30 seconds
U.S. Economy Teetering on the Brink of Recession – Ep 82
* Another week and another round of bad economic news
* Wall Street may be finally paying attention
* JOLT Report projected at 5.158 million; came in at 4.994 million
* April Retail Sales expected to rise .2%; came in flat
* X Automobiles expected an increase of .5, actual number was .1
* Beneath the surface there was a collapse in retail sales in all areas except groceries
* Weakest year over year increase in retail sales since 2009
* Department Store Sales experienced the biggest drop since January 2014
* A look beneath the headlines of the jobs numbers reveals that the jobs are not good jobs
* The Birth/Death Model assumption added 175,000 jobs to the last jobs report
* These numbers came from a biased source
* The fact that there is no spending is evidence that the job market is not as robust as the numbers claim
* Jobs numbers can be made up but retail sales can't
* Wall Street is surprised that we have weak data because they believe we are experiencing job growth
* March Business Inventories up .1% versus expectation of .2%
* February Business Inventories was revised down from .3% to .2%
* I estimate that Q1 GDP will contract by greater than 1%
* The Atlanta Fed just revised down their Q2 GDP estimate to .7, which would indicate the U.S. economy contracted for the first half of the year
* The Fed is still looking for 3% rise in GDP for 2015, which would mean we would need growth of 6% for the last half of the year
* It is more likely that we will get a negative number again for Q2
* Two consecutive contracting quarters will indicate an official recession
* If we are in a recession, the Fed will not raise rates and is more likely to respond with stimulus
* I predicted that a pause in QE3 would trigger another recession
* When the Fed is unable to raise rates to stimulate the economy, the only trick they will have up their sleeve will be QE4
* When that happens, the moves we saw today in the FOREX and Precious Metals markets will look tame by comparison
* The dollar has already broken its uptrend
* Europe, with the exception of Greece is experiencing growth in GDP, and Great Britain is doing better than Europe, because they shrunk their government instead of applying stimulus
* What we are going to get next is old-fashioned Keynesian, pump-priming stimulus
* Will that give us economic growth? Not a chance.
* The last three rounds of QE didn't give us economic growth and neither will the next one
* It may blow more air into the stock market bubble, but the air is going to come out of the dollar bubble even faster
* Where is the Fed's balance sheet going to be at the end of QE4? It is 4.5 trillion right now.
* How can anyone possibly believe Janet Yellen when she says she is going to shrink the balance sheet?
* Are creditors are going to get wise and there is going to be a run on the dollar
* You can see the beginnings of it today
* The dollar was down across the board
* Gold was back to about $1,250; every time it gets to this level it gets knocked down by short-sellers, but eventually they are going to have to give up
* All this bad economic data is going to sink in
* It is not the weather
* The market still has to adjust for the reality that the economy is really weak
* The Fed will not admit that QE didn't work, so in the face of recession they will have to do it againPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/14/2015 • 19 minutes, 56 seconds
The April Jobs Report and My Encounter With Ben Bernanke – Ep 81
* First official jobs report of Q2
* Wednesday's ADP private payrolls were below expectations
* March was revised down, indicating a softer labor market
* Challenger job cuts numbers well above previous month, biggest year over year increase in 10 years
* The jobs number came in at 222,000 jobs with unemployment down to 5.4%
* The media is spinning the headline number
* The picture underneath the jobs report is not as nice
* The March downward revision by 41,000 jobs causes one to question whether today's job number will be revised downward given all the negative underlying data
* The stock market recognized this; sensing the Fed will remain on pause
* Average Hourly Earnings increased only .1%, half expectations
* Numbers of Americans who have left the labor force is now at a record high
* When employers are changing the nature of the workforce replacing full time workers with part time workers it distorts the net number of jobs
* The Household Survey indicates the breakdown of full time vs. part time
* The government makes no such distinction
* In April we created 437,000 part time jobs - biggest gain in part time employment since last June
* The number of full time jobs declined by 252,000 - the biggest drop of the year
* The bad news of full time job loss is buried beneath the superficial layer of part time jobs
* The demographic breakdown indicates workers 55 and older gained 266,000 jobs in April
* Workers 25 - 54 lost 19,000 jobs
* This blows a hole in the notion that labor force participation is going down because of retiring baby boomers
* Other bad news to hit this quarter's GDP:
* Wholesale Trade numbers: inventories expected to rise by .3% but rose by .1% - smallest gain since March of 2013
* Wholesale Sales expected to break 3-month losing streak; instead increasing streak to biggest year over year decline since November of 2008
* Earlier in the week, Q1 Productivity down 1.9% following 2.1% decline last quarter
* Unit Labor Costs rose more than expected +5%
* Challenger numbers show a big explosion in layoffs
* The reality is that the economy is weakening rapidly
* The Fed and the media don't want to acknowledge this because they are afraid of how the market will react
* Recent encounter with Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
* Ben Bernanke was a speaker at the SALT conference
* I introduced myself to him after his presentation, told him "I am probably your biggest critic."
* He responded, "You have a lot of competition."
* Later that evening at a cocktail party I approached him and he offered to pose for a photo.
* Photo got more views and likes that most other photos on Facebook
* I tried to give him a cliff's notes version of my take on the Fed's part in the housing bubble
* Bernanke blamed regulations, Fannie & Freddie and the sub-prime mortgages
* I said the Fed created the conditions for Sub-Prime mortgages because low interest rates made them affordable
* I asked why he did not warn us in advance of the regulations, Fannie & Freddie and the Sub-Prime Mortgage business?
* Bernanke originally denied the housing bubble existed
* Ben Bernanke had no clue that the Fed's policies created the bubble even after it burst
* In hindsight, he lays blame on aspects of the market that he should have identified in advance
* I asked him, "how can can you be sure you were right, when interest rates are still at zero and the Fed's balance sheet still hasn't shrunk?
* Is there anything that might change your opinion that your decisions were right?
* He evaded the answer, but I believe he was sincere about his opinions
* Later that evening,Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/8/2015 • 30 minutes, 3 seconds
Bloom Rapidly Coming Off Recovery Rose – Ep 80
* Upcoming Appearances
* Thursday morning panel at the SkyBridge Capital SALT Conference in Las Vegas
* Liberty Forum - Salt Lake City
* MoneyShow - Las Vegas
* Economic News for the Week: March Factory Orders met expectations, but downwardly revised February number for 5th straight year-over-year monthly drop
* March Trade Deficit: $51.4 billion, a miss greater than $10 billion and the single worst trade deficit since October 2008 and largest monthly gain in nearly 20 years
* If the economy is so good, why do we have such a large trade deficit?
* Rising oil prices, along with other rising prices are putting additional pressure on consumers
* April U.S. Auto Sales fell, missing expectations for the 5th month in a row - sales at lowest year-over-year start since 2009
* The auto bubble has burst
* The United States has been spared the discipline of the market by virtue of the dollar being the reserve currency
* Gold is still just below $1,200/ounce - we will eventually run out of sellers who are keeping prices down, and when it goes up it will go up in a spectacular way
* Aussie dollar is up a percent and a quarter
* Canadian dollar up half a percent
* Euro up a third of a percent
* Swiss Franc up almost a full percent
* There was some good news: April ISM Service Non-Manufacturing Index rose, to 57.8, beating estimates
* New orders plunged into negative territory
* April PMI dropped from 59.2 in March to 57.4, a bigger drop than expected
* No one is looking for the April jobs number to be lower
* The consensus is also for unemployment to keep falling from 5.5% to 5.4%
* If we have all these jobs, why isn't the consumer spending?
* The answer is the jobs don't pay very much or the hours are reduced
* Meanwhile, as much as the Fed wants to pretend there is low inflation, the cost of living is rising
* The one safety net for the consumer was oil prices, and now that is gonePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/5/2015 • 20 minutes, 57 seconds
Spring Has Sprung, But U.S. Economy Still Snowed In – Ep 79
* Markets on roller coaster ride final two trading days of this week
* Bad news parade marches on in April
* The players are still clinging to fantasy of U.S. economic recovery
* Dollar finished down substantially on the week - April was the first down month in 10 months
* Dollar has seen its highs and is heading lower
* Gold back below 1200
* Oil prices added to gains closed above $59 - moving opposite to the dollar
* Friday - March Personal Income & Spending flat below expectations
* Personal Spending also lower than expected; .4% gain
* Savings dropped from 5.7 to 5.3 - the lowest savings rate of the year
* April PMI Manufacturing Index - dropped more than expected to 54.1 even as weather warms
* ISM Manufacturing expected to rise to 52 - remained flat
* Employment Index dropped two points - the first drop in 2 years
* March Construction Spending fell by .6 missing expectations
* Atlanta Fed correctly forecasted Q1 GDP at .2, forecasting Q2 at .8
* Article on Zero Hedge: Goldman Sachs warning Europe about severe "Lowflation"
* Article in Bloomberg: Chinese can't "kick" savings habit
* Blames problem on "not enough government"
* The reason America is in so much trouble is that we don't save
* Once the Chinese have built up a cushion, then they will spend
* When our phony economy bursts, it will be apparent that we did not save enough and had too much debt
* America gives capitalism a bad name - we preach it but do not practice it
* We rely on a giant government-run ponzi scheme of socialized savings
* We are telling the Chinese they have too much free market capitalism
* We have been indulging our present and sacrificing our future
* The Chinese will be rewarded for their prudence
* The most ironic thing about the Bloomberg article is that they suggest Chinese would be better off under CommunismPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/2/2015 • 29 minutes, 39 seconds
Will the Fed Run Out of Excuses as the Weather Warms?
* Government's first look at Q1 GDP
* There was a lot of optimism around Q1 with expectations above 3%
* Actual GDP was 1/5 of expectations at.2%
* The rest of the story of Q1 GDP:
* The deflator this time was negative - meaning that prices dropped by .1%
* The last time the deflator was negative was 2009 Q2; still in the Great Recession
* The previous occurrence of a negative deflator was in 1949
* I believe the true rate of inflation is higher than -.1%
* Inventory build continued into Q1 - businesses continue to believe the myth of the recovery
* Inventory to sales ratio are the highest they have been since the Great Recession
* They are still blaming poor economic performance on the weather. It is always cold in the winter; why is bad weather always a surprise?
* The Fed just released their official statement on interest rate policy
* They removed language from statement indicating it is unlikely that rates will rise
* Continuing give the illusion that they are progressing toward a point when they will raise interest rates
* The Fed went out of its way to dismiss all the bad economic news we got in Q1
* The dollar just had its biggest 2-day decline in 6 years
* The Fed came out and put a smiley face on the whole thing and the dollar recovered somewhat
* The Fed is never going to confess that they are worried; that's not their job
* What evidence is there that things will improve in Q2?
* Cheap gas windfall is over; oil prices have risen every week in the past month
* Early April economic data is negative
* An economy based on spending is a bubble; production grows an economy
* Consumers have lots of debt, but they don't have good jobs
* Decline in the dollar signals that the markets are already sensing this
* The Fed feels that economic growth will recover in Q2 & Q3
* They also said they need to see additional strength in the labor market
* Business are making foolish decisions because they believe the Fed
* As the economy disappoints, the labor market will continue to deteriorate
* The Fed can't raise interest rates and they are headed ror QE4
* We need more and more stimulus because we've built up a resistance
* The real crisis will be a dollar crisis
* When the economy heads south and the Fed has to do QE 4, the Fed will lose a lot of credibility
* Janet Yellen will not be able to deliver on her promise to shrink the balance sheet by the end of the decadePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5/2/2015 • 23 minutes, 21 seconds
Minimum Wage, Maximum Stupidity – Ep 78
* The Keynesian myth of mandating prosperity actually hurts the lower middle class and the working poor
* Something for nothing is appealing to voters, so politicians make empty promises that are good politics but bad economics
* A Seattle-based company called Gravity Payments has instituted a minimum salary of $70,000/yr
* This has given him great publicity, but how will this work in his company?
* Lower paying jobs will have to be eliminated, because they don't represent enough productivity to justify a raise that doubles the employee's cost
* Higher salaried workers are not hurt because they keep their job and perhaps get a raise for picking up the extra duties formerly handled by lower-salaried workers
* The most recent political gimmick in the State of Connecticut is a tax masquerading as a minimum wage law
* The Democratic State Legislature have proposed a law that will fine companies of 500 or more employees $1/hr for any worker who is paid under $15/hr
* How will this work in the State of Connecticut?
* Right away, business just over 500 employees will pare down to fall under the new regulation, so jobs will be lost
* In reality, this is just a tax increase on the people who can least afford it
* For employees who are currently working at the minimum wage, a $1 fine is cheaper than a raise from the current $9.15 rate to $15/hr, if they do not eliminate that person's job
* This is essentially another employment tax that will result in higher prices across the board
* Neither the employee nor the employer benefits
* For employees who are working above the current minimum of $9.15/hr a raise would cost the employer more than the $1 fine
* According to minimum wage law, it is illegal to cut the worker's pay - the only option is to cut the worker
* The penalty does not apply to higher paid workers; it only applies to jobs between the current minimum wage and the new minimum wage
* It will be cheaper to pay the tax than to raise wages, but there will be less money to to toward employees because a large percentage of the workers' wages are going toward a tax
* The reality of this new law, championed for the "little guy" is that the working poor will pay a higher marginal state income tax than the richest hedge fund managers in the state
* Will the voters be able to figure it out elected officials are going after the working poor?
* This tax will also raise the cost of living, wich also affects the poor more directly
* Packaging a tax to pass off as minimm wage is fraud
* Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/28/2015 • 24 minutes, 50 seconds
Do the Swiss Envy Canadians Paying Higher Prices? – Ep 77
* S&P and the NASDAQ made new record highs
* Stock market continues to ignore all the bad news about the economy
* Bad news is not being ignored in the foreign exchange markets
* Negative economic news is buoying the stock market because it removes fear of interest rate hikes
* Weak economy means more cheap money which means higher stock prices
* Oil prices hitting highest prices of the year
* Gold is back above the 1200 level
* April PMI Manufacturing Flash Index at 54.2 biggest miss ever
* New Home Sales tumbled by 11.1% - biggest drop since July of 2013
* March Durable Goods slight bump based on military aircraft, but less transportation, the index unexpectedly declined .2%
* Durable good orders, less defense and transportation dropped for the 7th consecutive month
* April Service Sector PMI missed lowest expectations at 57.8 - the biggest miss ever
* Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey - recorded significant drop at -16; biggest losing streak ever
* There will be a delayed reaction from the market to first quarter's bad economic news on top of this quarter's economic news
* A Boston Fed official is considering retaining "balance sheet tools", i.e. QE
* In other words, the Fed is considering not having an exit strategy - because it can't exit
* We have done all sorts of crazy things that we never would have done but for zero percent interest rates and QE
* A market that was built for 0% interest rates can't handle 2% interest rates
* The product of all this stimulus will be big increases in prices, and the Central Banks are setting the stage for higher inflation
* Declining Swiss consumer prices are described as "dangerous"
* Currently, the Swiss consumers are enjoying lower prices and do not need a government "cure"
* The law of supply and demand is so simple that only an economist would fail to understand it
* Keynesians will spin ever-conflicting news to support their theory
* Fitch has downgraded Japanese government debt to A- because or the Japan's deteriorating fiscal condition
* Based on that logic, why is the U.S. AAA?
* There is a general fear of downgrading U.S. debt, based on fines levied against the S&P
* The real problem will be the collapse of the dollar, which means the debt will be repaid in dollars without purchasing powerPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/27/2015 • 20 minutes, 9 seconds
Inflation Is The One Promise Central Banks Can Deliver – Ep 76
* Markets have been volatile but economic data still looking bad
* Chicago Fed National Activity Index: contrary to expectations, came in at -.42 in addition a downward correction for last week to a 2-year low
* Weekly Redbook Same Store Sales Survey down to lowest annual increase in 4 years with a dramatic rate of decline in recent months
* Implausible excuses, such as the weather or the timing of Easter, attempt to mask the fact that the economy is just weak
* Oil prices moved above $57, forming a sizable W-bottom
* Canadian dollar up about 5%
* Canadian inflation, especially food prices up
* This signals the end of rate-cutting cycle in Canada
* Central banks around the world are going to have to dial back on their cheap money policies
* The "Threat of Deflation" will be in the rear view mirror
* Central banks may like high prices, but consumers don't
* President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren stated our 2% inflation goal is "too low"
* He thinks higher inflation allows for more growth, and allows interest rates to remain low
* Cheap money does not create economic growth and doesn't create employment - it undermines both
* Cheap money applied to a slower economy creates a vicious cycle
* A weakening dollar will put upward pressure on already rising consumer prices
* The Fed is hinting at a higher inflation goal
* The problem is we can't do anything about our inflation because our debt is out of control
* Fiscally solvent countries are able to raise rates and still service their debt
* All the U.S. can do is "talk tough"
* If they had a "Hall of Economists" in Disneyland, the Keynesians would have to be in Fantasyland
* Paul Krugman's Keynesian experiment is blowing up the U.S. economy
* Everybody will figure it out before Paul Krugman doesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/22/2015 • 20 minutes, 31 seconds
Disney World, Paul Krugman, and Market/Economic News – Ep. 75
* Disney's theme parks are a monument to capitalism as it existed when Walt Disney envisioned Disneyland
* The Hall of Presidents, however manages to honor presidents who supported big government over the free market
* The choice of presidents demonstrates revisionist history that supports the liberal, big-government narrative
* Whenever you expand government you contract liberty
* The Dow ended the week down 279 points; NASDAQ down 75
* The search is on for excuses but the real issue is not global causes but U.S. economic performance
* Housing Starts and Permits were way below estimates
* Jobless claims were higher than expected
* Leading Economic Indicators weaker than expected this month after last month's downward revision
* Core CPI came in twice expectations, but described as "better than expected"
* The dollar had a very weak week; Canadian dollar had strongest week in years, with a possible rally going forward
* Weakness in Stock Market, continuing weak economic data makes June rate hike less and less likely in the minds of traders
* The most prominent poster boy for the myth of the U.S. economic recovery, Paul Krugman, recently published an article claiming victory for U.S. Keynesian economic policy
* Krugman claims U.S. is performing better than Europe due to Keynesian policies
* Perception is not reality: the U.S. is not doing as well as Krugman would have us believe
* Krugman references an article by Germany Finance Minister Wolfgang Shauble, criticizing him for rejecting macroeconomics
* Macroeconomics IS B.S. and should be rejected
* Krugman infers that Europe's woes are the result of rejecting Keynesianism
* Shauble warns against going for the "quick fix" of Keynesian policies
* Germany understands that austerity, rather than debt, is the answer
* Krugman believes we should continue to create bubbles through stimulus and debt
* It will be interesting to see what Krugman says when the U.S. economy slips back to recession as Europe grows
* Europe's approach was not perfect, but it is better than the politically expedient solution championed by KrugmanPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/19/2015 • 28 minutes, 20 seconds
Bad Economic News… When It Rains, It Pours – Ep 74
* Dollar usually drops on bad news but rallies because traders automatically buy on the dip
* Bad news is dismissed because the first quarter "doesn't count"
* This puts greater pressure on the last 3 quarters to make up for the first quarter and still show growth
* Expectations of a bump similar to last year are based on non-repeatable conditions - Obamacare and inventory build
* Inventory to sales ratio is the highest it has been since 2009
* What is the basis for dismissal of the bad news in Q1?
* Data confirms that the consumer is already broke
* Consumers will be hit with rising oil prices
* Traders who are loading up on the dollar are ignoring all the evidence that they are wrong
* The wake-up call will be like the sub-prime mortgage crisis
* The same thing will happen in the Foreign Exchange Markets when they realize the story is not about a recovery but about another round of QE
* Changing trend coming in the dollar
* Changing trend in the oil market
* Changing trend in the gold market
* If we don't get a recovery in the summer how is the Fed going to raise rates in Q4?
* Election year 2016 will likely see no rate hikes
* Retail Sales missed Wall Street expectations with a bounce of only .9
* March Small Business Optimism fell to lowest level in 9 months
* Hiring Plans dropped to lowest level in 6 months
* Business Inventories for February rose to .3 based on weak wholesale sales
* Inventory to Sales Ratio holding at 1.36 (highest since July of 2009)
* My radio broadcasts from a year ago predicted that the data was not reflecting reality
* April Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -1.9, near a 2-year low
* Employment down
* Hours worked down
* New orders down to 3-year lows
* Prices paid went up
* March Industrial Production dropped .6, missing expectations - 4th consecutive month below estimate
* This news can't be blamed on April showers
* Those who have been betting on the recovery are about to realize they made the wrong betPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/16/2015 • 18 minutes, 54 seconds
Markets, Economic Data, & The Ben Bernanke Book – Ep. 73
* Markets continue to rally worldwide
* Record highs overseas - much more action in Asia
* Markets riding a sea of liquidity
* Gold had an interesting week, closing at 1207
* The dollar had one of its best weeks in months
* In terms of other currencies gold was at a 2-year high
* This means that the euphoria about the dollar is not universally shared
* Commodities in general were up - crude oil was up - holding above 50
* This is a good indication of a solid bottom on the price of gold
* Traders continuing to make bullish dollar bets in the face of bad economic data
* Traders are willing to throw out the first quarter - regardless the excuse
* The bounceback from Q1 2014 was due to reasons that will not be repeated
* Obamacare created a huge rush to sign up
* There was a big inventory build anticipating future sales
* Bets for a 2015 Q2-3 rebound are based on optimism for consumer spending
* February Revolving Credit tumbled by $3.7 billion
* Non-Revolving Credit surged $19.2 billion - mostly student loans
* Consumers are cash poor, yet Wall Street believes they will start buying when the temperature rises
* Government under-reporting student loan defaults due to forbearances
* Wednesday release of FOMC minutes encouraged the dollar speculators because there were discussions about higher interest rates in June
* Currency traders still haven't figured out the the Fed's comments are all theater
* They are playing the game based on FedSpeak until it falls apart
* A drastic turn in the FOREX markets will take a lot of people down with it
* February Wholesale Trade declined again after January reported biggest decline in 6 years
* This marks the first 3-month decline since 2008 financial crisis
* Inventories rose slightly because of decline in sales
* Inventory to Sales Ratio at 1.29 - highest since 2008 financial crisis
* 2014 GDP increase was due to rush to build inventory in anticipation of recovery
* Bottom line: economic data shows that a second-quarter bounce in the GDP is just wishful thinking
* Ben Bernanke's new book titled "The Courage to Act" belongs in the fiction section
* Let historians justify his role in history - it is far to early to claim success
* This is the same guy who was blind-sided by the 2008 financial crisis
* He claimed courageous decisions in the face of critics, while actually putting politics and the banks ahead of the country
* His book may be coming out on eve of next economic fire that he setPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/11/2015 • 21 minutes, 14 seconds
Sexist Female Reporter Refuses to Apologize to Male Victims – Ep. 72
* Big double standard in the media regarding "sexism"
* Rolling Stone story based on complete fiction about a woman who claimed she was raped in a fraternity house
* The reporter accepted the woman's story without checking sources
* After the facts were out, the reporter apologized to everyone except the men who were falsely accused and the fraternity involved
* Where is the outrage that the real victims did not receive an apology?
* Is it sexist to assume that men do not deserve apologies when wrongly accused?
* The reporter refuses to condemn the woman who lied
* The primary apology must go to the wrongly accused, the fraternity and to the universityPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/8/2015 • 18 minutes, 56 seconds
Media’s “Rand Paul Can’t Win” Nonsense – Ep. 71
* Media's take: Why run for President if you can't win?
* "He's too Libertarian to win"
* "He is not as Libertarian as his father"
* "Rand Paul is closer to the mainstream than his father"
* His chances are as good as anyone's at this point
* He is actually closer to his father than he is to the mainstream
* If you like Ron Paul, how can you not like his son?
* Rand will maintain his father's supporters
* There are a lot of Libertarian Republicans, and Rand will attract most of those votes
* Rand has a chance to win in 2016 and in 2020
* If he wins, he will maintain his strong principlesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/8/2015 • 9 minutes, 37 seconds
Frontline Perspective on the Government’s War on Liberty – Ep. 70
* When employers empower certain groups with special privileges they become clubs with which to beat the employer
* Employers are then reluctant to put themselves in a position to be bashed with that club
* Large companies must prove diversity and go out of their way to hire minorities
* That kind of discrimination is the right of the employer
* Whenever you hire anyone you make yourself vulnerable to frivolous suits
* The government has made American business less competitive by appealing to the job seekers not the the job creators
* This eventually backfires on the job seekers by minimizing the number of employers
* I established my offshore bank because government regulation made it so much harder for me to service my international clients
* This drove away jobs that would have been in America
* Now it is impossible for our company to accept foreign accounts, including Americans living overseas
* My offshore bank may not accept offshore accounts or non-American customers
* Government regulations are now making it difficult on Americans who live abroad
* Every business in the country is being undermined by growing government regulationPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/7/2015 • 19 minutes, 54 seconds
Market’s Delayed Reaction to the Jobs Report – Ep. 69
* Markets are finally getting a chance to react to worst jobs report in two years
* March non-farm payrolls coming in at about half of forecast
* Dollar was off about 1% on FOREX
* Stock futures were down on opening bell but shot 100 points higher
* "Bad News is Good News" rally
* CNBC thinks jobs takes June rate hike is off the table - but it was never on the table in the first place
* The Fed will not be serving a September rate hike either
* It's going to be an all you can eat "QE Buffet"
* The dollar should have sold off more, but the bull market persists
* Currency traders are using circular logic about the strong dollar
* The dollar is rising for the same reason that the economy is slowing - the Fed has suspended QE and higher rates are expected
* The effects of a strong currency should build over time
* When the dollar uptrend ends, it will be a collapse because there are so many people on the wrong side of the trade
* March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slipped more than expected - lowest since June 2014, a two-year low
* Monday WSJ article said that if Fed is worried to raise rates even a quarter of a point, then the U.S. Economy is not as strong as everyone thinks
* If the Fed really believes the economy is strong, they would have already raised rates
* Continued low interest rates indicate the Fed does not believe the economy is strong.
* Crude Oil continues to rebound - above $53/barrel
* If we close above $54, the market should see move up to mid $70's
* Higher oil prices will start to hurt consumersPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/7/2015 • 15 minutes, 14 seconds
Will April Showers Rain on the Wall Street Excuse Parade? – Ep 68
* April Fool's Day and all the fools are buying U.S. stocks
* Atlanta Fed GDP Now Estimate for Q1 GDP finally down to zero
* Despite the fact that the economy is worse than the 2008 crisis, Wall Street expects a Q2 boom
* Last Q2 was boosted by Obamacare spending and inventory build
* No data supports wishful thinking that Q2 will stage a comeback
* U.S. corporate profits fell despite Wall Street gains
* Q4 corporate profits dropped by 3%
* Final revision for Q4 GDP held at 2%, weaker than expectations
* First back to back decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013
* Personal Income and Spending rose only .1%, missing expectations for 4th consecutive month
* Savings rate increased to 5.8%, contrary to Fed's objective to maintain spending bubble
* Savings increase is problematic for the Fed because it undermines the spending spree that masquerades as wealth
* The Fed will have to launch QE4 to encourage more spending
* The March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 17.4%- the sharpest 1-month decline since 2008
* Chicago PMI was below 50 in March - near 6 year lows
* March ADP numbers lowest in 14 months - biggest miss vs expected in 4 years
* March ISM Manufacturing Index dropped again to 51.5 - lowest level in 22 months - 5-month decline - first time since 2008
* Construction spending "unexpectedly fell"
* Zero might not be the floor for Q1 GDP
* Stock market weakening again - oil and gold up
* U.S. dollar no longer making new highs
* Everyone is going to come to the same conclusion at once triggering violent moves in the market
* Right now there are still people willing to buy the dollar, but eventually there will be no one to take the other side of those trades
* Countries with smaller balance sheets will start raising rates when dollar plunges and commodities rise
* Friday jobs number, the Fed's gauntlet, will start reflecting the rest of the bad economic news
* Rate hikes are so far into the future they are beyond QE4Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/2/2015 • 25 minutes, 7 seconds
If You’re Not Free to Discriminate You’re Not Free – Ep. 67
* Indiana passed a law to prevent lawsuits targeting religious objection
* Pressure and feigned outrage from the left wing machine causes Governor to walk back the meaning of the law
* The mark of a free society is the willingness to tolerate intolerance
* Liberals are the most intolerant of other peoples' intolerance
* In a free market there is always someone who wants my business, even if someone else does not
* I would rather get the intolerance out in the open, and just avoid that business
* It looks like the Indiana gay couple were searching for a business that would object to participating a gay wedding
* Why can't there be a business for bigots?
* It doesn't hurt anyone but the business, because it narrows the customer base
* The Governor can't stand up for what he believes
* Why doesn't he just say that the law allows certain individuals to discriminate based on religion
* A small segment of the community is holding everyone else hostage
* There is some inherent hypocrisy - whom is it OK to discriminate against?
* It should be legal to discriminate against anybody
* Government should not give a license to do what they should naturally have a right to do
* The government is extolling privileges on individuals that turn into weapons, frivolous lawsuits, and undermine our economyPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
4/1/2015 • 37 minutes, 52 seconds
Since When is Filing a Frivolous Lawsuit Heroic? – Ep. 66
* If an employee sues an employer falsely, the employer has no recourse, because it could be interpreted as retaliation
* Ms. Pao lost not only on her discrimination claim, she also lost on claim that she was retaliated against
* The big problem is the reaction in the media
* The tone in the press is supportive to Ms. Pao, even though she was not telling the truth
* She was suing for $16 million - her motive was greed
* This is not a "victory for women" - it is a loss
* The suit makes employers reticent to risk false gender-based accusations
* The press promise more sexual discrimination cases in the pipeline, suggesting someone might "get lucky"
* Most gender-based lawsuits are never litigated - they are settled for cash
* Employers are not going to discriminate based on gender
* Gender discrimination is a poor business strategy
* This case sends a loud message to employers to avoid the risk of gender based discrimination by avoiding womenPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/31/2015 • 24 minutes, 50 seconds
The Truth About Gender-Based Discrimination Lawsuit – Ep 65
* Pao v. Kleiner Perkins: there should be no damage even if there was discrimination
* The law against discrimination is unconstitutional
* Employees are free to discriminate - they can work for whomever they want
* Why should an employer then lose that right?
* Everyone should be free to deal with the consequences of their choicesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/26/2015 • 19 minutes, 39 seconds
Is Bad Economic News Finally Weighing on Stocks? – Ep. 64
* Near 300 point drop in the Dow
* NASDAQ down 118
* S&P down 30 points
* $1.50 gain in oil and oil stocks up
* No significant economic news that would trigger this move
* Dollar was not down much lower on day
* The 110 level is holding back the euro
* Expectations that the euro will roll over on higher U.S. interest rates kept the dollar up
* A weak stock market is bad for the dollar and good for gold because the Fed is likely to not raise interest rates or launch QE4
* The only way the Fed can prevent a correction from turning into a bear market is by launching QE4
* The Fed has built this "recovery" on asset bubbles
* Launching QE3 guarantees QE4
* The only thing that will stop perpetual stimulus is a currency crisis
* Durable Goods Orders were estimated at .7% gain
* Actual number came in at a 1.4% decline
* Five consecutive monthly declines in Durable Goods X Transportation
* The last time that happened was during the months surrounding the 2008 financial crisis
* The U.S. economy today is the weakest it has been since the depth of the 2008 financial crisis
* The final revisions to Q4 GDP due on Friday are estimated to go down
* There's a good chance the number will be lower than 2%
* Pundits are making excuses, saying that the "First quarter
s always weak" or "It's the weather"
* They don't want to come to terms with realityPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/26/2015 • 10 minutes, 37 seconds
Economy is Weakening But at Least the Cost of Living is Rising – Ep. 63
* Bad economic news coming in is more a deluge than a trickle
* Dollar continuing to drift lower since "patience" was removed
* New Zealand Dollar record high against the euro and the Australian dollar
* New Zealand enjoys a strong currency, economic growth, low inflation and low unemployment
* Swiss franc had a strong day today
* Chicago Fed National Activity Index revised down to -.11
* Three consecutive months of declining numbers
* Deteriorating numbers reflect pattern similar to pre-QE3 months
* Existing home sales number below estimates
* February new home sales up, however
* Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8, twice as low as most negative forecast. declining 4 times in 5 months
* CPI came in at .2%, exactly as expected; core up to 1.7
* Price of ground beef up 19.2%, at a record high
* The jobs numbers are a lagging indicator
* We are likely to see a jobs number downturn based on less optimistic assumptions
* Weaker jobs number will keep rates low
* The only thing that might drive rates higher is inflation, but goal of "medium term" is vague
* Weaker economy and higher inflation will cause dollar to drop
* When inflation is the only focus, it will be obvious that the Fed cannot raise rates, driving dollar down
* A currency crisis will finally force the Fed to raise ratesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/25/2015 • 24 minutes, 18 seconds
Are Forex Markets Finally Calling the Fed’s Bluff? – Ep. 62
* The Fed removed the word "patience" from their statement while promising patience
* We are likely to see weaker employment numbers, further delaying talk of rate hikes
* Pundits who failed to foresee the 2008 crisis are now saying the "problem is solved" because they do not understand the problem
* The problem is worse now than ever
* The Fed caused the 2008 crisis and they are in the process of creating the next, much larger crisis
* I have been critical of QE 1,2 and 3 and low interest rates because they only mask the problem
* "Failure of Capitalism" comments are actually criticizing our socialist economic policy
* The same applies to the Fed, as they are price-fixing the market
* Faulty logic assumes that low inflation is the reason for the weak economy
* Low inflation, which is not as low as reported, is a silver lining in the economy right now
* The rich are making money on inflation because they are leveraged and speculating
* Inflation undermines the middle class, business and job creation
* Who will be blamed when the consequences of the Fed's policy finally result in crisis?
* Free market capitalism is the solutionPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/21/2015 • 29 minutes, 47 seconds
Losing “Patience” Does Not Mean the Fed has Lost Patience
* The Fed released long-awaited FOMC official statement
* Indicating they will be more patient without the word "patient" than when they were officially patient
* Why take the word away in the first place?
* The Fed wants to appear to be moving closer to a destination to which it has no intention of arriving
* The Fed is clearly more concerned about the economy today; they reduced growth estimates
* Janet Yellen said she will not raise rates until she sees improvement in the labor market
* The Fed not satisfied with 5-1/2% unemployment
* The jobs number is the outlier and will turn around
* Housing starts collapsed in February; biggest in 8 years
* Economic Surprise Index is most negative in memory
* It doesn't matter what the unemployment rate is; the Fed can't raise rates without creating a financial crisis worse than 2008
* The minute the Fed went down the path of QE, they sealed our fate
* There is now so much debt that we need QE more than ever
* The dollar had a huge rise in anticipation of rate hikes
* The Fed is more likely to launch QE4 than to raise interest rates
* The Fed is not going to raise interest rates until there is a currency crisis
* When the dollar turns, commodity prices will surge in all currencies
* The fact that the day of reckoning has been delayed with increased debt means a bigger payday for Euro Pacific Capital investment strategy
* It will be better to restructure and default on some of our debt that to deflate it away
* Understand the end game, ride it out and have the last laughPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/19/2015 • 24 minutes, 30 seconds
Dollar Strength Defies U.S. Economic and Stock Market Weakness – Ep. 61
* The Foreign exchange markets continue to ignore the darkening U.S. economic picture
* Dollar had best two-week gain since the financial crisis of 2008
* Market exuberance based solely on the jobs report which is an outlier among all other negative news
* Why aren't the jobs numbers being questioned?
* We have had three consecutive months of declining retail sales
* Falling prices are reflecting a lack of demand
* The stock market has begun to decline, bracing for Fed rate hikes
* Gold held steady against the dollar; up against other currencies
* Inventory to sales ratio lowest since 2008
* This week the Atlanta Fed reduced Q1 GDP down to .6%
* The second revision for Q4 could be below 2%
* Poor GDP numbers already being blamed on the weather
* Europe looked to US QE as a success because inflation was masked
* The European market is already issuing negative bonds in anticipation of ECB purchase (QE)
* The Germans are going to push back when they see inflation
* At lease Europe will be able to withstand higher rates because of smaller debt and trade deficit
* U.S. won't be able to tolerate the consequences of rate hikes which would ultEimately heal the economy
* Therefore inevitable QE4 will be even larger than QE 1,2 & 3 combinedPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/14/2015 • 24 minutes, 2 seconds
Markets, Rate Hikes, and Student Loans – Ep. 60
* The NASDAQ 5,000 party ended nearly the day it began
* NASDAQ down more than 80 points
* Dow Jones down 332 points
* Outside reversal week a reliable pattern signaling a downturn
* The market believes optimistic non-farm payrolls will trigger Fed rate hike
* Dollar hitting new highs
* Janet Yellen is the victim of too much success, allowing for rate hike assumptions
* All data other than jobs numbers are weak
* If we continue along this path, we are heading toward recession
* Stock market and real estate bear markets will trigger QE4
* Stock market will drop dramatically if rate hike notion is not dispelled
* Obama Administration floating trial balloon on student loan debt discharge for bankruptcy
* This moral hazard would force education prices even higherPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/11/2015 • 17 minutes, 18 seconds
U.S. Economy Not Nearly as Strong as Payrolls Suggest – Ep. 59
* February Non-Farm Payrolls Number - 295,000 jobs
* Unemployment down 5.5%
* Analysts were expecting a miss
* Dollar at a new high
* Productivity dropped 2.2%
* Factory orders fell for the 6th consecutive month
* Economic data points only seen during recessions
* The Dow closed down - NASDAQ down more
* Labor force participation rate is down
* Average hourly earnings flat
* Number of people not in the labor force at an all-time high
* Increase in jobs represents people working more than one jobs
* 45% of the 295,000 jobs are assumed to have been created by optimistic government statisticians
* Disconnect between the weak GDP and the jobs numbers
* Consumer credit declined, indicating the consumer is struggling
* It's a good time to take advantage of the strong dollar and invest abroadPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/7/2015 • 44 minutes, 52 seconds
Polish Central Bank Joins 2015 Rate Cutting Party – Ep. 58
* Poland became the 21st country to lower interest rates this year
* New record low to 1.5%
* Polish economy is strongest in three years
* Growing faster than the U.S. economy
* Policy conundrum: what is inflation target?
* Low inflation stimulating Polish economy
* Yet Central Bankers look to illogical Keynesian textbooks
* Where is the evidence that deflation is undermining the economy?
* There is no magical point where a good thing becomes a bad thing
* If they overcompensate and weaken the economy, they will be raising interest rates on an already weak economy
* Poland could afford to raise rates, however, if this policy fails, because their debt is low
* U.S. debt is so high, we can't afford to raise rates in order to support the dollar
* When inflation picks up in the world and other central banks raise rates, the dollar will decline
* The Fed will be unable to curb inflation because we can't afford to service our debt
* Ultimately this will precipitate a currency crisis when it becomes apparent that the Fed has run out of optionsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/5/2015 • 21 minutes
This Time It Is Different – It’s Worse – Ep. 57
* First trading day of march - NASDAQ closed above 5000 for the first time in 15 years
* Each time the market goes up with crazy valuations, pundits say, "This time it's different."
* This time the Fed is under more pressure to create the illusion of prosperity
* Today's rally came against the backdrop of weak economic data
* The only way this bubble won't burst is if the Fed intervenes with more stimulus
* Bubbles force you to make an important decision:
* Look like a fool before they pop, or look like a fool after they pop
* It doesn't matter how much money you make, it's how much money you keepPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3/3/2015 • 26 minutes, 25 seconds
Shocking Admission & Denial from Alan Greenspan
* Government released revised estimate for Q4 GDP
* Initial estimate was 2.6; revised down to 2.2
* Economic growth dipped from 5% in Q3 to 2.18% in Q4
* PMI was expecting 58.7 but plunged to 45.8, indicating contraction
* Alan Greenspan commented that the U.S. economy is weak
* Greenspan cites declining U.S. productivity
* Points to declining gross domestic savings brought on by entitlement programs
* Greenspan refuses to blame Fed policy for productivity and savings declines
* He predicts continued low interests rates to create the illusion of wealth
* In 1966, Alan Greenspan blamed the Fed and their cheap money policies for stock market bubble and economic imbalances
* Today, he still believes this to be true, but no longer cares about the consequences of reckless economic policy
* The Fed's job now is to just do whatever it takes to postpone the pain
* Inflating bubbles with the certain knowledge that the outcome will be bad, while pretending that they will eventually raise ratesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/28/2015 • 23 minutes, 43 seconds
Fed Might Begin Thinking About Raising Rates at Some Point – Ep. 56
* Janet Yellen's prepared remarks were the most dovish yet
* If economy is improving, why do we still need "a high degree of accommodation?"
* There is still room for "substantial improvement in the labor market"
* Any modification of guidance will not necessarily indicate rate increase
* Yellen states lower energy prices is positive for the economy, yet looks for higher inflation
* The Fed says outlook is data dependent and the data is getting worsePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/26/2015 • 30 minutes, 2 seconds
Hollywood Hypocrisy and Gender Pay Gap Fiction – Ep. 55
* Patricia Arquette claims that there is a still an unfair gender wage gap in the labor market
* If that were true, all employers - male and female - would hire women first, because they are more cost effective employees
* But they don't
* Women who choose to balance family with career often accept lower-paying positions
* Women do not make less money for the same work
* They make less money for different work
* In Hollywood, youth is an asset for women - for men, not as much.
* Male action movie stars can earn more because action movies earn more.
* Liberal spin promotes a government "solution" for a free market system that is workingPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/24/2015 • 29 minutes, 9 seconds
Fed’s Open Mouth Operations Having Complications – Ep. 54
* Two days of bad economic news this shortened week
* The Fed still says the economy is recovering
* Recent FOMC minutes maintains pretense they can raise interest rates
* FOMC members are worried about raising rates "too soon"
* The Fed is worried about how to remove the word "patient" from communications
* How confident can the Fed be in the "recovery" if they still fear raising interest rates?
* The "recovery" was just a bubble masquerading as a recovery
* If we had a real recovery the Fed could have already raised rates
* They are now concerned about weakness overseas
* They are worried about a strong dollar
* They expressed concerns about the risks of lower oil prices
* Low inflation causes concerns
* The Fed is clearly paying attention to the negative economic news
* Empire State Manufacturing down
* Home Builder Confidence at 4-month low
* Industrial production weak
* PPI number declined .8
* Eventually the economic numbers will force the Fed to acknowledge weakness and resume stimulusPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/19/2015 • 20 minutes, 31 seconds
Investor Confidence Sends Stock Indexes to New Highs – Ep. 53
* Friday 13th was not unlucky for Wall Street
* S&P 500 traded to an all-time record high
* The Dow closed above 18,000
* NASDAQ at almost a 15-year high
* Despite overall trend of weak corporate earnings
* Weak economic data does not dampen Wall Street's spirits
* Central Banks are behind the surge with excess liquidity
* Wednesday - Mortgage Applications plunged 9%
* Purchases declined 7% following a 2% decline prior week
* 10% decline in Mortgage Refinances
* Jobless claims up 25,000 from prior week
* Biggest back-to-back decline in Retail Sales since October of 2009
* Consumer Confidence is down 2 weeks in a row
* Business Inventories rose by just .1% contrary to expectations
* Inventory to sales ratio highest since July 2009
* Huge drop in Consumer Sentiment
* Jobs number is a lagging indicator
* Part-time economy is a double-edged swordPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/14/2015 • 21 minutes, 18 seconds
I’m Living in an Economic Twilight Zone – Ep. 52
* China announces a record trade surplus
* Media reports surplus as bad news for China
* Because of the strength of the Yuan, Chinese can buy more imports for less
* Chinese consumers purchasing more
* Chinese businesses manufacturing more
* Contrary to press reports these factors point to a strong economy in China
* U.S. has record deficits along with a strong dollar
* The short term effect of a strong currency is that trade deficits should go down because imports are cheaper
* The fact that our trade deficit continues to rise illustrates underlying economic weakness
* Media double standard: China trade surplus is bad but U.S. trade deficit is good
* Media reports "low rate of unemployment" among college grads, however:
* Record number of college graduates are under employed
* Only 44% of employed Americans work 30 hours or more per week
* In future, the smarter students will skip low-value degrees in favor of work experience
* Shake Shack IPO valuation $1.5 billion on $5 million profits
* Grilled Cheese Truck: valued at $100 million on negative revenues
* Black is white and white is black: Twilight ZonePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/10/2015 • 27 minutes, 28 seconds
Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51
* Monthly non-farm employment number beat expectations
* Upward revisions to prior months
* Average hourly earnings number jumped by .5
* Immediate reaction in the market was swift
* Dollar up; gold down
* Unemployment up
* Labor force participation down among younger workers
* Jobs number inconsistent with other weak economic data
* Layoffs are up
* Government is way off on "jobs lost" data
* Yesterday's trade deficit was the largest increase recorded
* If our economy were strong, our workers would be producing and we would not rely on imports
* Trade deficit is subtracted from the GDP
* Productivity numbers weaker than expected
* How many times can the dollar rally on the same news?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/7/2015 • 19 minutes, 56 seconds
Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?
* Volatile day in the markets
* Largest decline in Personal Spending since September 2009
* Wages and Salaries gain slowest in 7 months
* December ISM Manufacturing Index down to 53.5
* December Employment growth at 7-month low
* 2.6% GDP number will likely be revised downward
* U.S. Factory Orders declined 3.6% in December
* Oil prices triggering momentum against the dollar
* The FOREX markets are beginning to acknowledge U.S. economic weakness
* QE4 will accompany a budget-busting economic stimulus
* S&P was the only agency penalized by the government for rating sub-prime mortgage AAA
* S&P is actually being penalized for downgrading U.S. government debt
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
2/4/2015 • 30 minutes, 5 seconds
A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49
* Fed's official statement released yesterday
* Received by the market as hawkish, Fed is still reiterates "patience"
* The statement noted unguarded optimism about the U.S. Economy
* Fed ignored unstable markets, Europe, oil prices and strength of the dollar
* Response: the market sold off and the dollar rallied
* Gold declined on Fed's expectations
* The Fed's underlying goal may be to talk the dollar up and talk the markets down
* Strong dollar buys time
* Continued "patience" indicates Fed's true agendaPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/29/2015 • 17 minutes, 24 seconds
Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48
* Wall Street spared blizzard only to be buried in bad earnings and bad economic news
* December durable goods down 3.4%; expected to come in at +.7
* Consumer confidence up to 102.9; contrarian indicator
* Last time consumers were this confident was in the middle of 2007
* Number will collapse when reality has a violent confrontation with perception
* P&G earnings down 31%
* Caterpillar warned
* Microsoft stock down 10% today
* UPS announced they overestimated holiday sales
* Businesses geared up for a recovery in late 2013 that was not going to happen
* Layoffs coming in 2015
* This may give the Fed an excuse to delay rate increase
* How can a strong dollar be good for America but a weak euro be good for Europe?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/28/2015 • 35 minutes, 25 seconds
Obama Misstate of the Union – Ep. 47
* The President is taking credit for an economic recovery that is a bubble created by the Fed
* Obama voters' salaries are much lower now than when he was elected
* We have fewer full-time jobs during Obama presidency
* Obama is offering freebies to the middle class, promising to tax the "wealthy"
* Getting money that you didn't earn is "fair"
* Higher taxes on earned money is "fair"
* Capitalism built the middle class
* The Government has destroyed the middle class
* Obama actually claimed that he "reduced" the national debtPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/23/2015 • 10 minutes, 56 seconds
Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46
* Big action from the Central Banks this week
* Bank of Canada lowered rates from 1% to .75%
* The ECB announced the launch of first QE program
* The Euro plunged against gold
* Central Banks' goal is to raise the level of inflation to guard against falling prices
* Falling prices accelerate economic activity
* Regulations and taxes slow down economies
* QE in Europe lets the politicians escape the consequences of regulations and taxes
* QE will send European money abroad
* Inflation is an obstacle to economic growthPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
* Biggest 7-day surge in Gold prices since 2011
* U.S. GDP will be lower than in Canada this year
* Canadian gold production will rise in 2015
* Gold is rising against most currencies except the Swiss Franc
* The IMF still believes the U.S. economy is recovering
* Outlook for gold in Australia is also positive
* The Yuan will probably be the next peg to go, allowing it to rise against the dollar
* The American workforce is being rewarded for incurring large debt to engage in unproductive careersPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/21/2015 • 22 minutes, 40 seconds
Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?
* Thursday, January 15, will be remembered as the day Switzerland abandoned its peg to the Euro
* The Swiss defended their policy to peg to the Euro, but suddenly reversed, limiting their losses
* They admitted they were wrong
* Although the Swiss stock market went down in their currency, it was up in every other currency
* Gold is up against everything except the Swiss franc
* The news in the Swiss market will be a tremor compared to the earthquake if the Chinese abandon their peg both to the Hong Kong Dollar and the Yuan
* America will win the currency war to the detriment of the American peoplePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/17/2015 • 24 minutes, 28 seconds
Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44
* The Swiss people have given up the inflation ghost to win the currency war
* Media reports negative on the news: "silly decision"
* Oil down against the Swiss Franc
* Swiss stocks up in U.S. dollars
* Wall Street expects Eurozone QE, but without Swiss, QE might be less likely
* Gold up against other currencies
* Franc surging in value against the dollar
* This move may signal economic reform
* Unfortunately Janet Yellen is not going to get this memo
* Volatility from Swiss move is nothing compared to consequences of a U.S. QE 4
* This move is bearish for the U.S. market
* Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ridePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/15/2015 • 17 minutes, 2 seconds
Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43
* Dow down 600 points in between Tuesday high and Wednesday low
* Stock market and real estate are pillars of the phony recovery
* Loose government lending standards encouraging mortgage defaults
* Dollar down and gold up on low retail sales numbers
* Fed not likely to sit out a U.S. recession, trading support for Wall Street over the dollar
* The next QE could be bearish for bonds and the dollar
* Demise of the recovery illusion will also hurt stocks
* Bitcoins down on more bad news
* Price does matter as investors seek value
* Irredeemable digital currencies will never be moneyPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/15/2015 • 33 minutes
Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42
* December jobs report up; unemployment down
* Average hourly earnings dropped
* Labor force participation hits new low, except for older Americans
* Fewer young workers supporting the Social Security system
* Most credit comprised of student loans and auto loans
* Auto delinquencies highest since 2008, indicating a bubble
* Obama's plan to make community college free will further inflate costs
* Charles Evans calls for more inflation before raising interest rates
* Denies relationship between cheap money and bubbles
* The term "patience" indicates no timeframe for higher rates
* Gold stocks very strong and gold prices continue to rise in face of rising dollar
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/11/2015 • 21 minutes, 31 seconds
Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41
* World markets left the gates weak on first full trading week of the year
* Catalysts: Declining oil prices and Greece's potential Eurozone exit
* The Euro has gone sideways against the dollar for 9 years
* The U.S. stock market will decline until the market believes rate hikes are off the table
* U.S. will not experience accelerating growth in 2015
* Evidence shows the home market is not strengthening
* Young entrepreneurship at a 20-year low
* Falling oil prices are a symptom economy is not expandingPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/6/2015 • 22 minutes, 19 seconds
As The New Year Begins, Will The Recovery End? – Ep. 40
* Falling unemployment trends seem to be over
* PMI "unexpectedly" drops to 53.9%
* Construction spending "unexpectedly" fell .3%
* December ISM fell to 55.5
* Draghi's comments at ECB sparked U.S. Dollar rally despite weak data
* Eurozone QE not likely
* 2014 was a flat year for gold, despite bad press
* Dollar price based on higher interest rate expectations
* Price of gold has tripled since 2005
* Gold mining costs rise with inflation
* The real bubble is the confidence in central bankers
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
1/4/2015 • 35 minutes, 25 seconds
Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39
Christmas Snow job on Wall Street
* Dow ended Christmas Eve Day above 18,000 for second day
* Catalyst was bigger than expected revision to Q3 GDP to 5%
* Big disconnect between economic performance and expectations
* Consumer spending up mostly on healthcare
* Inventory increases in expectation of future sales
* Data for Q4 is lower
* Home sales continue to dropPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/25/2014 • 26 minutes, 27 seconds
SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38
SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball
* Negative deposit rates in Switzerland send U.S. stocks up 420 points.
* Two-day Wall Street rally over 700 points on nothing but Central Bank inflation
* Swiss move triggers QE speculation and higher gold prices
* Janet Yellen merely suggested the economy is strong enough to raise rates in the future
* Meanwhile, economy is slowest since last FebruaryPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/19/2014 • 22 minutes, 47 seconds
Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37
Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her - Ep. 37
* FOMC wrapped up meeting with Yellen press conference
* Most people expected "considerable time" to be dropped
* Bloomberg believes "considerable" dropped in favor of "patience"
* The Fed didn't change anything
* The Fed didn't actually say anything
* Markets up on Yellen's optimistic non-news
* Why wait to raise interest rates?
* The longer the Fed waits to raise rates, the more painful it will be for the economy
* What is the Fed's strategy if economy slows down?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/18/2014 • 25 minutes, 18 seconds
You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36
You Know the Bubble's About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice Ep. 36
* Oil and Russia viewed to be at the epicenter of this week's market chaos
* Why is the oil price dropping? The market anticipates a drop in demand due to global recession
* Winding down of QE triggering market instability
* Economic data still pointing to weakness
* Russia raised interest rates to 17%
* Ruble crisis is a "dress rehearsal" for the dollar crisis
* Our currency crisis will be worse because of our debt
* Euro and Yen rallying
* This morning gold was up, down, ended up
* Volatility indicates changing trends
* A recession in the U.S. means QE4Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/17/2014 • 24 minutes, 49 seconds
Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35
Yellen's Recovery is as real as George Costanza's Hamptons Beach House Ep. 35
* Volatile Friday followed by Monday rally trend
* The stock market has rallied very high very fast with little technical support.
* The gold market had its best week relative to equities.
* Only a dozen markets have beaten gold this year.
* Rally started with Michigan Consumer Sentiment assisted by Dodd/Frank revisions.
* The dollar was mixed at Friday close.
* The oil market is indicative of the Fed's movements.
* The Fed's history predicts continued to support for bubbles with additional QE, despite reports to the contrary.
* QE4 will be bigger than previous QE's and will precipitate higher oil prices.
* The pretense that QE is over has fueled the market, but QE4 will trigger the bursting of multiple bubbles.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/13/2014 • 30 minutes, 22 seconds
Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34
Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34
* If oil goes down to $35/barrel we will not be able to produce oil for export at that price.
* It is no accident that oil prices are dropping as the Fed is ending QE.
* What are the implications for the U.S. Economy if the Oil Bubble bursts?
* Good jobs in the industry sector will go away.
* Oil sector business loans will default
* Investors will lose money.
* The fallout will be bigger than the dot com bubble.
* If oil was a bubble fueled by cheap Fed money, what's next?
* If the collapsing oil prices threaten recession, the Fed may launch QE4.
* If the Fed does not launch QE4, other bubbles will be affected.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/12/2014 • 19 minutes, 53 seconds
Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33
Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33
* Catalyst for the rally was the Retail Sales Report
* Cars represent the largest part of the gain
* Any slight good news is overblown
* Bad news is ignored
* Economy is not driven by spending
* Economy is driven by savings and production
* Gold stable and up on the year against the dollar
* Those who question the Government's numbers are being called "Truthers"Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/12/2014 • 23 minutes, 53 seconds
Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32
Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep.32
* In 2014 Bitcoin was the worst-performing financial asset
* Spending bitcoins triggers a taxable event
* Spending or selling at a loss also reflects on your taxes
* This holiday season, harvest tax losses while shopping
* Write-off could exceed value of gift
* You can also buy bitcoins back at a savings from original cost if you wait 30 days
* Buy Gold and Silver while harvesting tax lossPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/10/2014 • 20 minutes, 35 seconds
Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses
* U.S. Taxpayers will be forced to guarantee mortgages with 3% down
* Qualifiers are low-income or have not owned a home for 3 years
* Government is spinning this as "prudent"
* Buyers have very little skin in the game
* If real estate prices plummet, walking away is an easy choicePrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/10/2014 • 12 minutes, 25 seconds
Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30
* Stock market roller coaster ride this week
* Chinese market plummets
* Forex markets: Yen rallies after 7-year low
* The Swiss may discourage the EU against QE
* Unwarranted U.S.optimism as negative data is ignored
* Gold and Silver strong despite bad press
* Gold outperforming the Russel 2000
* Deficit in Manufactured Goods hit all-time high
* China reports record trade surplus
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/10/2014 • 20 minutes, 15 seconds
Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29
* What is the goal of the "Inflation Mandate?
* What is the exact number of the mandate?
* If the real mandate is "less than 2%" they're already there
* The European economy is expecting another QE, but I don't expect it.
* How they plan QE if they don't know what they are going to buy?
* Draghi cites success of U.S. QE, but the Fed has not shrunk its balance sheet.
* They discussed buying all assets except gold because this would highlight failure of QE
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/4/2014 • 25 minutes, 14 seconds
Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28
Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28
* This holiday shoppers had more shopping hours
* 5% less traffic than last year
* 11% less money spent than last year
* The economy can't support robust holiday sales
* Despite big drop in gas prices
*
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
12/1/2014 • 24 minutes, 43 seconds
Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27
Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27
* Oil and gold stocks down
* OPEC announced no decline in oil production
* Crude trading below $66/barrel
* Bump to the Dollar
* Mining sector takes a hit
* Gold down
* A no vote on Swiss Gold initiative bullish for gold
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/30/2014 • 35 minutes, 51 seconds
Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26
Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26
Missing expectations on all economic indicators
* Chicago Fed index .14
* PMI flash services 56.3
* Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5
* Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9%
* Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M
* Oil prices continue to fall
* Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate
* Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/26/2014 • 28 minutes, 19 seconds
The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict
The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict: Episode 25A
* Riots are not the caused by the Grand Jury
* The Grand Jury's statement did not address Michael Brown's culpability
* All evidence points to officer's innocence
* Media fears addressing Michael Brown's violent behavior
* Young men are not raised to respect the law
* This will happen again because there is no recourse to violence and false witness<Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/25/2014 • 17 minutes, 24 seconds
Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A
Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A
* Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation"
* Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble
* The test is when the printing presses stop
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/25/2014 • 17 minutes, 28 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24
Big News out of the Central Banks
* U.S. FOMC
* Primary concern - inflation is too low
* no policy to "correct" the problem
* Preparing markets for additional stimulus
* Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak
* Japanese sales tax hike postponed
* Continued calls for more inflation
* Why is sales tax is different than inflation?
* Euro Decline
* Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation?
* Chinese Central Bank
* Cut interest rate to 5.6%
* Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed
* Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/22/2014 • 31 minutes, 41 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23
Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff:
* MarketWatch
- writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title
- The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time
- I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4
- The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis
- I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility
* New Republic
- Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin
- Points to the CPI to refute real inflation
- The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002
- Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI
- This illustrates how the government measures inflationPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/21/2014 • 27 minutes, 40 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22
Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case:
* Don't rob a convenience store.
* Don't rob a convenience store while high.
* Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high.
* If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman.
* Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him.
* But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!"
* The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/20/2014 • 21 minutes, 31 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21
Episode 21: BoJ Seems to relieve Consumers' Struggle With Rising Prices by Creating More Inflation
* Investors & Economists shocked to learn that Japan is officially in recession
* Instead of a 2.1 rebound, there were back to back declines - a huge miss.
* Economists cry "More Stimulus!"
* Abe admits rising prices hurt the economy, contrary to inflation "Goal"
* The theory that rising prices stimulate the economy is proving wrong in Japan, Russia and the U.S.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/19/2014 • 26 minutes, 25 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20
Episode 20: Explosive Daily Upside Reversal in Gold Portends Potential Bottom
* Weekly jobless claims higher than expected
* Fewer people in the workforce
* Job openings declining
* Consumer sentiment survey at 7-year high?
* false confidence in the economy due to oil prices
* QE4 will be the mother of all QE
* Gold and silver market reversal on Friday
* Silver stocks up $4%
* Gold stocks were up 6%
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/17/2014 • 20 minutes, 24 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 19
Episode 19: Low-Paying Jobs And Student Debt Undermining Marriage
* There are more single Americans than ever
* Job quality and debt are disincentive to marriage
* Government policy promotes generations of single mothers
* Two out of every five mothers are single
* If the economy is getting better, why is this happening?
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/13/2014 • 14 minutes, 37 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 18
Episode 18 Synopsis
* Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber admits fraud promoting Obamacare:
* "They proposed it and that passed, because the American people are too stupid to understand the difference."
* Administration's argument to Supreme Court about constitutionality of Exchanges claims "typo"
* The average American may not be able to make decisions for others, but they know what is best for themselves
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/13/2014 • 20 minutes, 30 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 17
Episode 17 Synopsis
* Japanese yen fell to 7-year low
* A result of Abenomics
* Speculation that planned increase of sales will be delayed
* price moving with strength of dollar
* Chinese Yuan up vs Yen and euro
* Next few months may expose Fed's false narrativ
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/12/2014 • 10 minutes, 25 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 16
Episode 16 Synopsis:
* Looking under the 5.8% unemployment number headline
* Biggest increase was in food service
* Labor force participation rate is low
* Employment costs are high
* Gold & gold stocks rally
* European markets encouraged by Mario Draghi's stimulus talk
* If the economy disappoints, U.S. may look toward stimulus, too
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/8/2014 • 30 minutes, 35 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 15
Episode 15 Republican victory a reality only because recovery is a fantasy
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/6/2014 • 26 minutes, 36 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 14
Episode 14 The U.S Recovery is as Real as Ireland is a Part of the U.K.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/6/2014 • 29 minutes, 57 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 13
Episode 13 Synopsis: Treats on Wall Street Equal one Big Trick. Belief that QE worked sparks optimism:
* New record high in Dow Jones & S&P
* NASDAQ highest since 2000
* Dollar index closed at a 4-year high
* Yen at a 6-year low
* Gold/Silver prices at a 4-year low
* Gold Stocks at a 10-year low or more
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/6/2014 • 28 minutes, 21 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 12
Episode 12 Synopsis: Greenspan's QE Criticism Too Little Too Late
* FOMC declares "substantial improvement" in economy.
* Does this narrative reflect the best possible spin or ignorance?
* Behind the 3.5% GDP number:
* Deflator - 1.3% indicates decrease in inflation.
* 4.6% surge in gov't spending
* Big drop in trade deficit resulting from drop in crude oil prices adds 1.3% to GDP
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/2/2014 • 34 minutes, 57 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 11
Episode 11 Synopsis: Where is the Apology?
Preview of the Michael Brown Grand Jury case does not support liberal media's narrative.
* The officer knew that Michael Brown had just robbed a convenience store.
* The bullets entered Michael Brown from front as he was approaching the officer.
* Blood evidence on Michael Brown indicates he was moving toward the officer.
* Wounds in upper arm indicate he did not have his arms in the air.
* Michael Brown was shot in his thumb at extremely close range.
* A majority of eyewitnesses support the officer's testimony
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11/2/2014 • 38 minutes, 21 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 10
Episode 10 Synopsis
Hillary's Fractured Economic Theory:
* Raising the minimum wage will create jobs.
* Businesses don't create jobs; the government creates jobs.
* Regan Economics "failed spectacularly".
* Clinton's economy was based on "arithmetic", not a bubble.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/31/2014 • 20 minutes, 2 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 9
Episode 9 Synopsis
* Deflation Spin Cycle: Peter debunks recent articles "redefining" deflation.
* QE Infinity: Brandeis economics professor predicts the Fed doesn't need an exit strategy.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/29/2014 • 21 minutes, 18 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 8
This week, we're releasing a series of podcasts to get current information out on a more basis. We appreciate your feedback on this new format.
Episode 8 Segment 1:
* Contrary to GDP number, consumers are still struggling.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/28/2014 • 13 minutes, 26 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 7
Episode 7 Synopsis
* More deflation/inflation propaganda
* The Fed prefers inflation because at least they know how to fight it
* Money printing in Venezuela* Bloomberg warns Yellen not to follow Sweden's example
* Obamacare premiums going up after the election* Mark Cuban's plan to limit student loans
* Wells Fargo employee demands $10,000 raise for himself and other employees
* British Minister under fire for suggesting intellectually disabled should be able to work for less than minimum wage
* News about QE4
* Yellen ironically speaks up on wealth inequality
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/21/2014 • 2 hours, 12 minutes, 52 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 6
Episode 6 Synopsis
* Big downside moves in global equity markets
* U.S. stock market trends
* Gold moves upward
* U.S. Dollar weakness
* A detailed analysis of this month's FOMC minutes
* Share buybacks and other artificial boots to the stock market
* More Obamacare blowbacks against the job market and employee healthcare
* The straight story on misleading reports on the economy
* How California labor law put a vineyard out of business
* Interview with Paypal co-founder Peter Thiel in his new book
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/21/2014 • 2 hours, 20 minutes, 33 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 5
Episode 5 Synopsis:
* Debunking Ned Davis' predictions on gold
* Chicago Fed president Charles Evans hints that the Fed can't raise interest rates
* Alan Greenspan gives Fed a pass on CNBC
* Brokerage houses hit by FINRA arbritation results
* Eurozone low inflation 'scare'
* Collapse in Fannie and Freddie stock
* The numbers behind the weekly economic data
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
10/6/2014 • 2 hours, 24 minutes, 50 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 4
Episode 4 Synopsis
* Launch of the iPhone 6
* Surprising employment arbitration results
* Housing market rolls over
* Hotel minimum wage
* World Bank head claims that QE worksPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/28/2014 • 2 hours, 23 minutes, 15 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3 Synopsis:
* FOMC: Janet Yellen's official statement and her response to her Q&A, later in the day
* Market reaction to Yellen's statement, and the "walk" vs the "talk".
* The Ali Baba IPO
* The breakdown in the price of Bitcoin
* My crazy email exchange with CNBC's Joe Kernen
* Scotland votes to remain in the UKPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/21/2014 • 2 hours, 4 minutes, 49 seconds
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2
SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2 Synopsis
* Economic Data - More weak data
* Purchase applications index declined by 7.2% - biggest decline in 14 years
* Treasury yields slightly up for the week
* Retail sales up - Buying more or paying more?
* auto purchases with cheap money
* inflation not taken into account
* Auto loans increasingly delinquent
* Fed Policy
* I'll admit to being wrong if the Fed raises interest rates back to normal and shrinks its balance sheet back to normal, as promised, and does not produce a financial crisis.
* Interest Rates
* Negative Interest Rates in Japan and in Switzerland
* Inflation
* Paul Krugman says we should be at 4% inflation and a minimum wage of $10.10
* Commentary on Henry Blodgett's inflation comments
* Column from David K. Johnson on how corporations are getting rich by paying taxes
* Employment
* Jobless claims up, indicating a trend change
* The Economy
* Recognizing bubbles ahead of the crisis
* Europe - Poll on Scottish independence
* Social Issues:
* The NBA in the hot seat for racism
* Over-reaction to the Ray Rice story
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/15/2014 • 2 hours, 3 minutes, 24 seconds
Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1
Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1 Synopsis:
* Wall Street foolishly dismisses August's horrible Jobs Report
* ECB cuts rates in misguided push for higher inflation.
* "Shrink-flation," what is it and why those using the term still don't get it.
* Implications of Switzerland's coming gold reserve vote .
* Protesting Fast food workers determined to put themselves out of work.
* Does Alibaba's biggest IPO in history shows portent more interest in foreign stocks?
* Countrywide's Anthony Mozilo is not the real villain.
* NY Fed concedes 25% of college grads wasted their time and money.
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
9/9/2014 • 1 hour, 52 minutes, 39 seconds
Schiff Radio – January 1, 2014
Happy Holidays!, Due to the holidays, Peter Schiff Show is airing best-of broadcasts.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy