Arindam Sandilya, Ayako Fujita and Junya Tanase discuss the outlook for Japanese macro, BoJ policy and the Yen. Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ayako Fujita, Economic and Policy Research Junya Tanase, Japan Markets Research This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691315-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4702881-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy  Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4694204-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In lieu of our regular FX podcast, we present a joint webinar recorded earlier this week. Take a seat at the table as  Bruce Kasman, Ayako Fujita, Greg Fuzesi , Meera Chandan and Samantha Azzarello unpack potential policy divergence among global central banks, top macro themes and their impact on future policy rates and currencies.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Bruce Kasman, Global Head of Economic Research Ayako Fujita, Chief Japan Economist Greg Fuzesi, Euro Area Economist   Moderator: Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research   This podcast was recorded on May 9, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4695538-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

J.P. Morgan strategists and economists’ monthly discussion on the outlook for Emerging Markets fundamentals and markets. Speakers Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economist   This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691814-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the impact of the FOMC meeting and April employment report on the US rates and FX markets. They also delve into this week’s Treasury refunding announcement, Japan FX interventions, an analysis of the best bullish and bearish-USD expressions and the medium-term outlook for USDJPY and EURUSD. Speakers: Jay Barry Meera Chandan This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 03 May 2024. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil take a deeper dive into swap spreads in the US markets and how that connects to a kind of term premium. Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy  Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4684943-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

James Nelligan, Khagendra Gupta and Morten Lund discuss our main economics, Rates, and FX views in Sweden and Norway ahead of the central bank meetings. This podcast was recorded on 02 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680274-0 ,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680274-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4688989-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678480-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4687572-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers Tracey Allen, Head of Global Commodities Research  Gbolahan S Taiwo, EM, Economic and Policy Research   This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4687740-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week our FX strategists discuss the implications of the dovish BoJ meeting for JPY as well as lingering FX intervention risk. We also look ahead to US event risk for the dollar next week with a full data calendar and the FOMC. Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Benjamin Shatil, Economic and Policy Research Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4686012-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker:   Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research Last week, we attended Cesco Week, one of the leading copper events globally, which brings together the most important producers & consumers and industry leaders each year in Santiago, Chile. We encountered nearly universal bullishness on copper prices over the medium-term, though near-term, there was still a sense that the current copper rally may be running ahead of still slack refined market fundamentals which could take some further time to tighten over the coming quarters. Despite the potential for near-term volatility, there was a broader acknowledgement that we are now entering a new upwards trend for copper prices.  Tighter refined copper markets over the course of this year and next look somewhat inevitable, stressing low global above ground stocks. Amidst near-term supply tightening already, progress on filling end-of-decade supply gaps looks nearly non-existent from many major producers and time is now beginning to run very short.   This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680427-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4682555-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:   Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Daniel Lamy, Head of European Credit Strategy Research and Nelson Jantzen, from High Yield, Leveraged Loans and Distressed Leverage Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.   This podcast was recorded on 23 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4664711-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4670934-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666443-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the strength of this tax season and what that tells us about the TGA, the debt ceiling, QT, and the lowest comfortable level of reserves. Speakers Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy  Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy This podcast was recorded on April 19, 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678572-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678829-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan outline our constructive USD view and the implications of the joint statement from Japan/ Korea/ the US this week.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 19 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4676229 -0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Oil shrugged this week’s escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. To some extent, this could be explained by the fact that some of the geopolitical risk premium was already priced in. Since last October we have viewed market reaction to political events in the region to be excessive for two reasons. First, main players in the Middle East have strong incentives to keep the conflict contained given the economic transformation currently planned and implemented in the Gulf region requires sustained absence of conflict. Second, the closure of Hormuz is a low-risk event as Iran will be shooting itself in the foot both economically and politically by irritating its main customer.    Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on April 19, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4674589-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

With timing being the key behind our bullish regional Henry Hub story, the reversal of a preliminary junction granted to Energy Transfer a year ago may provide relief for future LNG demand. Meanwhile, the USDA’s April WASDE was neutral-to-bearish relative to average trade expectations, leaving unanswered questions for South American corn and soybean production, after yet another month of local write-downs.   Speakers Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on April 12, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4670498-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671902-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A hot CPI print following the recent strong jobs print has put ‘high for long’ back in focus, challenging the soft landing narrative. We discuss with Phoebe what these ‘bumps in the road’ mean our views on TIPS, breakevens, and duration generally. As for Gold, Greg dissects the reasons for the recent rally and reviews whether the rate cutting cycle is going to be as bullish for Gold as it was historically.   Speakers: Phoebe White, Head of Inflation Strategy Thomas Salopek, Head of Cross Asset Strategy Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on April 11, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671684-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667440-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671783-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the moves in secured funding rates and Treasury yields in the wake of strong manufacturing and employment data, and preview the risks around March CPI and the April tax date. Speakers Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy This podcast was recorded on April 5, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655558-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4664658-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this episode, Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss some current key themes and topics for Euro area rate markets. They cover the upcoming April ECB meeting, the recent fiscal announcements and noise in France and Italy, views on swap spreads, drivers of Euro volatility and the impact of rising oil prices on inflation markets.   Speakers Francis Diamond, UK Rates & European Inflation Strategy  Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy  Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy    This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666360-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

This week, our FX Strategists Patrick Locke, James Nelligan & Ladislav Jankovic discuss USD & G10 FX trends amid a backdrop of strong US data & higher yields against improving global growth signals, and also break down implications for the dollar from higher oil, weaker CAD data and prospects for CHF depreciation. This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667578-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

At face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia’s decision to cut oil production could push Brent oil price to $100 by September. But there are multiple counter-measures that could act as a suitable rebalancing mechanism. The US can release up to 60 mn bbls of crude from the SPR and demand could buckle. For now, we keep our long-held price forecast unchanged ($90 by May, $85 in 2H24), awaiting further clarity regarding Russia’s actions, but acknowledge that the way to our price projection may be through $100. Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4660256-0 . For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.    

Meera Chandan, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss FX implications from DM central bank superweek and outline expectations ahead of the upcoming BoC/ Riksbank meetings. This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656374-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Francis Diamond discuss the outcome of the FOMC and BoE meetings, and the implications for US and UK rates markets.   Speakers: Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy Francis Diamond, Head of UK and Euro Cash Strategy and Head of Global Inflation Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656360-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4657369-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4657417-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Driven by a surge of financial inflows, copper prices have jumped higher in March, eclipsing $9,100/mt earlier this week for the first time in a year. Copper prices are finally responding to the intensifying supply tightness that has skewed us bullish on the metal since last December. We retain this bullish medium-term bias but now need micro indicators in China to turn around and begin actually signaling a tight fundamental market to sustain upwards price momentum from here.  With refined copper supply looking most at risk in the coming quarter and Chinese demand entering its seasonal peak period as well, we still think a broader move higher towards our bullish year-ahead target of around $10,000/mt is in the offing, even if the road there is somewhat bumpy.   Speakers:     Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4652097-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655420-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta and James Nelligan preview the upcoming Norges and Riksbank meetings and discuss our views in the FX and Rates market. This podcast was recorded on 20 March 2024. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We discuss the behavior and outlook for yen in the aftermath of a historic BoJ meeting.   This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655242-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655046-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the February inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, the Fed, and rates markets. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time. In the Fed's SEP released next week, we think there are better than even odds that the median dot for this year moves to showing two 25bp cuts by YE24 vs. the three such cuts in the December dot plot. We change our Fed call, and now look for 75bp of cuts this year, or one 25bp every other meeting beginning in June. Accordingly, we revise higher our Treasury yield forecasts for the balance of the year.   Speakers: Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy  Michael Feroli,  Economic and Policy Research This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4653388-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4653424-0 and here; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4652552-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.      

Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the outlook for currencies amidst a heavy central bank event calendar next week.   Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4650281-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We believe Russia can maintain oil exports at current levels through June even as it cuts 0.5 mbd crude production. Russia can achieve this by offsetting 200 kbd reduction in banned gasoline exports with higher crude oil shipments as constrained refinery runs due to drone attacks and maintenance that runs from April through June lower processing rates. After June, Russia would likely have to cut exports to accommodate lower crude production setting the stage for a contentious June OPEC+ meeting.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4649503-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden Saad Siddiqui This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4650338-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss recent developments in the US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and our views going forward   Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 11 March 2024 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4643590-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Ben Shatil & Patrick Locke discuss USD/JPY dynamics ahead of the upcoming BoJ meeting, implications of recent US data for the dollar, and the outlook for EUR after this week’s ECB meeting. This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648213-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   Gold prices have shot to new highs this week largely catching the market by surprise given relatively minor moves in rates and FX.  The sharp rally demonstrates the immense power of flow in gold and previews why we remain structurally bullish the metal over the next year. Yet, for us to ultimately reach our upside price targets we need to unlock more than just the systematic momentum inflows we likely saw this week. This will require continued moderation in inflation and US jobs data in the coming months to solidify Fed cut expectations and ultimately trigger the next leg of inflows from discretionary funds and ETF holders necessary to push prices up towards our $2,300/oz ultimate target.   This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4644713-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The team discuss the key features and developments of the EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy  Virginia Martin Heriz, Head of ESG Research Methodology and Integration  Lydia Harvey, Head of ESG Index Strategy & Implementation  Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4610201-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

21.6 million electrified vehicles (BEV, PHEV, hybrids) were likely sold worldwide in 2023 or 33% of total auto sales. Sales of battery EVs are still rising, but the growth rate appears to be easing, losing market share to hybrids. Fully or partially electric vehicles represent now 7% of the global fleet, likely shaving almost 500 kbd off global gasoline demand between 2019 and 2023, with 400 kbd of those from the US and China. Increasing pressure from electrification and efficiency gains will likely lead to a first on record outside of recession contraction in global gasoline demand in 2025 and a cumulative loss of 0.9 mbd by 2030.   Speakers:     Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4633431-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:    Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit   Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Jake Pollack, Global Head of Credit Financing to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets, following on from J.P. Morgan’s 2024 High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference.   This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4641255-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4631154-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4615611-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4571639-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-GQ71W05A for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In this episode, Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss thoughts on the recent flash HICP inflation print, the upcoming ECB meeting and the UK Spring budget and the implications for both Euro and UK rates markets. They also discuss thoughts around the expected outcome of the ECBs review of its operational framework.   This podcast was recorded on 1 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4642541-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Strategists Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the outlook for rates and currencies ahead of Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony, the ECB meeting, and February employment data next week. Speakers: Jay Barry, US Rates Strategy  Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4640038-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4641490-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4635376-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis published in our Global government bond activity chart pack.   This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4635297-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Teresa Ho and Ipek Ozil discuss recent market developments that will likely result in a later QT taper and what that means for markets with respect to ON RRP, reserves, SOFR, and swap spreads. Speakers: Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4636544-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4633120-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Arindam Sandilya, Ben Jarman and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid a less dovish tone in bond markets. Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4635313-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

While US natural gas prices made historic lows not seen since 1995 last week, European and global LNG prices have slid to lows not seen since before the Russia/Ukraine war. As prices have fallen, we have seen some interesting comments this earnings season which are likely the very result of these low prices. In the US market we will discuss one producer’s move to defer production while in the European market we will discuss what appears to be signs of life for industrial demand.   Speakers:   Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research     This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4622508-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the January inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, growth, and rates markets. CPI, PPI and import price inflation all came in stronger than expected in January, even as retail sales data disappointed. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time and stick with our call for the first rate cut to come in June. We like positioning for lower front-end real yields. Speakers: Phoebe White Michael Feroli This podcast was recorded on 16 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

With US natural gas price reaching lows not seen since 1995, it begs the question what is the path forward for US natural gas producers this summer? In this podcast, we will discuss how the US natural gas market got here and whether it changes our views on being bullish 2025 price. We think a further and perhaps more substantial slide in price could ensue if early-indications of March weather were to also suggest milder than normal.   Speaker: Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural gas Research   This podcast was recorded on 16 Feb 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4629952-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

This week, FX strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan discuss the lack of follow-through on the dollar following US CPI, as well as implications from inflation data elsewhere around the DM space. This podcast was recorded on 16 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view related research at www.jpmm.com for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist  Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist   This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4628065-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle. Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy Ipek Ozil   This podcast was recorded on February 14, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4621321-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

J.P. Morgan strategists and economists’ monthly discussion on the outlook for Emerging Markets fundamentals and markets.  Speakers: Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economics   This podcast was recorded on 9 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4621172-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We discuss market pricing of growing tariff risks and US exceptionalism as durable Dollar supports. CNY focus given newsflow around China equities. In the European space we opine on recent NOK and CHF-related developments. Speakers: James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy  Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 9 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4623391-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker:    Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Our Brent outlook continues to project a tightening market with prices rising from here by another $10 by May with zero risk premium and a 400 kbd unwind of voluntary cuts. So how do we get there? Same as in the third quarter of last year, via a drop in inventories. On a global scale, the world’s onshore crude inventories sit at 4.4 billion barrels—a record low since the start of 2017, when Kpler began tracking the data. Incoming demand data suggest an improving rather than cooling global economy while OPEC+ crude exports have been declining.   This podcast was recorded on Feb. 9, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4620490-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

We discuss the FX and rates implications of from key US events this week: the Treasury refunding, the FOMC and the employment report. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy  Jay Barry, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 2 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4617599-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4618750-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4617514-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4619056-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4619849-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 02 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4616636-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:    Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy & Chemicals   We continue to project Brent oil reaching high $80s by May, with our constructive outlook relying heavily on our optimistic view on demand, especially China. Despite tepid economic growth momentum, Chinese oil consumption hit an all-time high of 16.03 mbd last year, delivering a 1.2 mbd growth vs 0.8 mbd expected at the start of 2023. The supporting factors that boosted oil demand growth in 2023 are fading, but there are few signs that China’s oil demand is slowing. We project the world’s top crude importer to consume an additional 530 kbd of oil in 2024, accounting for a third of the 1.5 mbd growth in global oil demand and its single largest source. Our constructive outlook on demand requires an increased call on refining output however China’s dominance in global refining activity growth will likely ease in 2024.   This podcast was recorded on Feb. 2, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4614178-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Meera Chandan and Anezka Christovova discuss the ongoing global yield compression and implications for carry currencies.   Speakers Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy    This podcast was recorded on 30 Jan 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602355-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557694-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557696-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4566567-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Francis Diamond and Allan Monks discuss the upcoming February BoE meeting and views on UK rate markets. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates, but given the clear shift in inflation surprises and perceived risks since November, we believe the Bank will almost certainly make a dovish pivot that puts future easing higher up on the agenda than before. August is our current call, although its hard to argue too strongly against June. The BoE will not shut the door on a potential May cut, but we think it will also not want to encourage expectations for an easing that early. We keep a bullish duration view at the front end of the UK curve via longs in 1Yx1Y SONIA and money market curve flatteners. This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4614062-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategist Jay Barry and Chief US economist Mike Feroli discuss the outlook for policy in the week ahead, including expectations for the FOMC meeting, the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, and the implications for US rates markets. This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4611261-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4613934-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss recent policy developments in China and discuss the dovish tide that is envelopingall DM central bank ex-BoJ.   Speakers Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 26 Jan 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4611445-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602355-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Speakers:     Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research   Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   There are two interesting supply dynamics happening in two very different commodities that are both grabbing a lot of attention in early 2024: copper and natural gas (both dry gas and LNG). In copper, a tightening across the upstream concentrate market is happening much quicker than expected and appears to be lurching towards a breaking point.  The boosted risk of margin-induced production cuts at smelters could lead to a deeper refined copper deficit over the course of this year and continues to boost our conviction in a bullish trajectory for prices. In natural gas we cover some of the recent whipsaw moves in US natural gas prices and whether it is enough to change near-term production estimates out of the US. Additionally, we address today’s announcement by the Biden Administration of a temporary halt in approvals for US LNG export facilities and its potential impact to the global market.     This podcast was recorded on Jan. 26, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4582924-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4606675-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4606708-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4591164-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 25 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4610323-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the recent developments in US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and their views going forward.   Speakers Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on January 22, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this episode, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting and current views on Euro area rate markets, intra-EMU spreads, swap spreads and Euro volatility. This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4607876-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid an early year challenge to the bond market’s disinflation optimism.   Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4605640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

As we put a bow on 2023, our view remains that oil demand growth will slow from a very strong 1.8 mbd in 2023 to a still strong 1.5 mbd in 2024, underpinned by a moderating but still resilient global economic expansion and remaining pent-up oil demand. On the supply side, producers outside of the OPEC+ alliance again should drive overall growth in supply—projected at 1.6 mbd—matching growth in demand. All of this means a largely balanced market, with Brent prices averaging $83 for the year. The biggest pushback against our view has not been the balanced supply-demand outlook, but whether a balanced market is indeed worth $80.   Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on January 19, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602932-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

J.P. Morgan’s economics and fixed income strategists discuss the opportunities across local markets, sovereign and corporate credit in Türkiye as the narrative of a policy pivot gains traction.   Speakers: Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy Michael Harrison, Emerging Markets Strategy Fatih Akcelik, EM, Economic and Policy Research Zafar Nazim, CEEMEA Credit Corporate Research YM Hong, Emerging Markets Credit Corporate Strategy Ben Ramsey,  Emerging Markets Research   This podcast was recorded on 16 January 2024 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4589700-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In this episode, we discuss the December inflation data, the widening in the CPI/ PCE wedge, and the potential impacts of trade disruptions in the Red Sea on core goods inflation and commodity prices. We review the implications for US rates markets.   Speakers: Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 12 Jan 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

We discuss the outlook for the dollar and FX markets with focus on select Asia currencies: CNY, JPY and Antipodean FX. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ben Shatil, FX Strategy and Japan Economics This podcast was recorded on 12 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4599991-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this episode, we discuss the minutes of the December FOMC minutes. The balance sheet discussion read dovishly, and portends an earlier end to QT than our baseline forecast. We discuss the implication for funding, rates, and MBS markets. Speakers Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy Nick Maciunas, Securitized Products Research Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We take stock of FX markets at the start of the New Year, discussing the outlook for the broad dollar and other DM currencies. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4594494-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In our last podcast for the year, we discuss the recent flurry of DM central bank meetings and implications for FX. Speakers: Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4585090-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Brent oil price at $74 is $8 too cheap vs our model-derived fair value of $82 for December. Given our optimistic view on demand next year, we see Brent oil trading in the low $80s by March and high $80s by May. We find current oil prices in the lower range of the trading band and see the recent sell-off as a potential buying opportunity—even with thinning liquidity ahead of the holiday period—given our divergence with consensus on fundamental factors affecting oil market dynamics in 2024. Given our outlook on demand, we argue that there is no need for further OPEC cuts were the alliance to accept lower oil prices in the mid-$70s to mid-$80s range. Instead, we believe, the alliance should unwind some of the voluntary reductions in order to gain operational flexibility when demand growth takes a step down in 2025 (and potentially 2026), when most of the post-COVID demand normalization is behind us and decarbonization policies begin to cut into demand for some products. Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4582283-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, our FX Strategists, Patrick Locke, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan take stock of feedback and price action following the release of our Year-Ahead Outlook last month. We also discuss recent developments surroundingJPY & CHF, as well as the tactical outlook for FX into a week full of event risk. This podcast was recorded on 08 December 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4554862-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker:  Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural gas Research   Calendar 2024’s quickly weakening price as a result of not only significant changes milder in weather forecasts but also lofty daily production prints kicked off the weakness in 2025 price. The speed and magnitude of the price move lower was primarily driven by investor positioning in a very crowded long 2025 trade which has likely been cleaned up this week. Despite adjustments to our LNG timeline following recent announcements and an end-Oct 2025 storage trajectory nearing 4.2 Tcf, we do not see a reason to give up on the bullish cal 25 narrative. Focus on the Southeast balance shows that even just the start of the Plaquemines natural gas facility could result in acute tightness in the region as stronger withdrawals and weaker net injections will likely support price in 2025.   This podcast was recorded on Dec. 8, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4579745-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss their outlook for interest rate derivatives markets in 2024.   This podcast was recorded on December 5, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4554285-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research   Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research   Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 29 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4539172-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553481-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4566999-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast, Arindam Sandilya, Ladislav Jankovic, Lorenzo Ravagli and Juan Duran-Vara  we discuss the FX volatility backdrop and six themes that we think are worth watching for 2024. Namely, 1) carry collecting, 2) JPY and x-JPY directional and volatility, 3) efficient hedges for unwinds in Latam, 4) defensive, low decay forward volatility structures, 5) US elections pricing, and 6) Convexity.   This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4565749-0 ,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557523-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

World oil demand is on pace to grow a solid 1.9 mbd in 2023, 1.6 mbd in 2024 and will likely decelerate to 1mbd in 2025. More than offsetting this is growth in non-OPEC supply, which surged by 2.2 mbd in 2023 and will likely expand by 1.7 mbd in 2024 and 2 mbd in 2025. To keep the oil market balanced, OPEC+ alliance would need to continue to constrain production, which throws a sharp focus on OPEC+’s exit strategy. We expect Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary production/export cuts through 1Q24 and unwind 400 kbd of cuts in April. However, a case could be made for choosing higher volumes in order to achieve better optionality in the future. Our Brent forecasts for this year and next have not changed since June and are expected to average $81 for 2023 and $83 in 2024. We also extend our outlook through 2025 with an average Brent price target of $75/bbl.   Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 22 November 23 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4539172-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4567074-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

In this part one of the two-part year-ahead outlook podcast series, we explore the main FX themes for 2024 through a macro and systematic lens.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Antonin T Delair, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4565749-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4568084-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.    

The US cycle will be the big EM fixed income driver again in 2024, likely resolving either into a soft-landing or a recession. Given data equivalence will keep this unresolved in the near term, there is space for the smaller cycles of EM monetary policy and defaults to be the primary drivers of EM performance into the start of 2024. Stay OW EM FX focusing in high carry; receive EM rates front-end but stay MW in GBI-EM local duration; stay MW in EM Sovereign and Corporate credit. For FY 2024, we forecast local market (GBI-EM in USD) returns of 7.67%, with local yields -75bp to 5.76% and EM FX spot returns of -1.17%. We forecast EMBIGD spreads at 475bp (+50bp) and CEMBI BD spreads at 330bp (+30bp) for total returns of 12.2% and 10.0%, respectively.   Speakers: Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Local Markets and Sovereign Debt Strategy Nora Szentivanyi, Global Emerging Markets Economist This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557696-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond, Khagendra Gupta and Aditya Chordia discuss the 2024 Rates Outlook.   This podcast was recorded on 21 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4562369-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Over the past several months the TTF market has been provided strong reminders of the lack of spare capacity in the event of a major supply shock. This has left a premium embedded in price to remain in place despite storage still at 99% full and structural demand loss still seemingly in place for industrial and residential/commercial demand. We believe this price premium is justified for now with so much time still left in the winter withdrawal season, but that price premium could start to fade as the market gets a better view of December weather and should that weather not appear. We think a further and perhaps more substantial slide in price could ensue if early indications of January weather were to also suggest milder than normal.   Speaker: Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on November 10, 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4548305-0. For more information, please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

We discuss the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet int 2024, taking into account the Fed’s monetary policy framework, the expected evolution of reserves and ON RRP balances, and what this means for the timeline for QT. Speakers: Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy This podcast was recorded on 9 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4555154-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 09 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We recently hosted a discussion on the US with analysts from across Global Research. Topics included the US economic outlook, Fed policy and the latest views on rates and the dollar.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist   Moderator Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   This was recorded on 06 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4543411-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553781-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4549566-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 03 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4552508-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The price of oil has remained relatively subdued since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel. This is consistent with our baseline view that oil price will exit the year at $86 before declining to an average of $83 next year amid slowing global economic growth. The main risk to our view is that a broadening of the conflict could close the Strait of Hormuz or that a more general Middle Eastern conflagration could ignite retaliatory responses from major oil producing countries. Crucially, for all of recorded history, despite many threats, the strait has never been actually closed off and oil continued to flow. Iran could retaliate in other ways, such as disrupting shipping in the Persian Gulf. But even the “Tanker War” of the 1980s—when 259 oil tankers were attacked between 1984 and 1987—did not impair Gulf oil exports or substantially increase world oil prices. Similarly, a 1970s style oil embargo by the Gulf oil producing states appears unlikely because two-thirds of GCC’s oil exports today are purchased by Asian clients and, importantly, the economic transformation currently planned and implemented in the region requires sustained absence of conflict. Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 03 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4547564-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the recent stall in the US dollar’s uotrend, and also the outlook for key central bank meetings next week.   Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy  James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy  Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy    This podcast was recorded on 27 Oct 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4546539-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global upstream oil and gas spending is tracking $545 billion this year, up from $497 billion in 2022, based on data from 140 public companies and our estimate of private operators’ spending. The latest investment guidance is up 82% from 2020 lows, although still 22% below the 2014 peak. Similarly, producers are on track to complete 59,000 wells globally this year—a 33% decline from the 88,000 new wells put into production in 2014. Yet, total oil supply has risen by about 4% during 2014-2023. For scale, a 103% surge in capex between 2006 and 2014 resulted in a 7% global crude and condensate production growth. A key reason behind the stable production profile despite both investment and well activity levels dropping significantly since 2014 is the declining unit costs due to efficiency and productivity gains. While we find today’s ~$500 billion investment in upstream O&G supply healthy, we estimate that capital spend needs to stay at the current level in order to satisfy demand in 2030.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 27 Oct 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4519242-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 26 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4543740-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Saad Siddiqui and James Nelligan discuss (a) macro tensions for FX stemming from improving momentum in China / Europe and a less aggressive Fed on the one hand, and rising US yields and escalating geopolitics on the other, and (b) why a flip in bond-equity correlations should result in greater safe-haven demand in currencies benefitting USD and CHF.   Speakers Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4538860-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.    

At $93/bbl today, Brent oil price is about $7 overvalued vs its estimated fair value—an appropriate premium given the uncertainty. But beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains that large inventory draws observed in 3Q23 will transition to a largely balanced market in 4Q23 (our model oscillates between 100 kbd build and 100 kbd draw) with Brent exiting the year at $86. Strange as it might seem, since 1967, with the exception of the Yom Kippur war of 1973, none of the other 10 major military conflicts involving Israel resulted in a lasting impact on oil prices. In contrast, during conflicts involving a major regional oil producer, oil traded at a wide $7-14/bbl premium to its fair value for an extended period. Currently, oil flows have not yet been affected, with limited risk of future supply losses, in our view. All significant parties in the region have powerful incentives to avoid the widening of the war. And so far they have acted accordingly.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2023.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4535649-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss their published views on the ECB and BoE meetings scheduled for next week and their potential market impacts.   This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4536377-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures  for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.   Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist   This podcast was recorded on October 19,2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4536659-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPM

In this podcast we discuss the amalgamation of supply risk factors from renewed strike fears in Australian LNG facilities to conflict in Middle East that sent European gas prices above 50 EUR/MWh. Amidst these developments, a move higher in US natural gas prices may be overlooked but since start of the month prompt contract is up 20%. The risk factors that we will discuss not only support the upside move in the prompt contract but also across much of the forward curve. Speakers: Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Strategy   Otar Dgebuadze, Global Energy Strategy This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4530064-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4531777-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4529854-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We discuss our still-constructive view on the dollar and the recent downgrade to our EUR/USD targets to parity (from 1.05). Speakers: Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 13 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4530064-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4531777-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

After reaching our target of $90 in September, our end-year target remains $86/bbl. We maintain our view that August saw the largest deficit of the year and that inventory draws will transition to a slight build during the final four months of the year. Accordingly, crude backwardation should start to narrow and physical crude differentials for alternative Atlantic Basin grades should start to ease. Our balances assume healthy but slower demand growth in 4Q23 as we expect normal seasonal patterns in demand to be maintained this year. Crucially, demand restraint from rising oil prices is once again becoming visible in the US, Europe, and some EM countries. Accordingly, we believe that global oil inventories have built in September. Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research This podcast was recorded on October 5, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522039-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4462795-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483453-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4510542-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522039-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 05 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the CTD shift in Treasury futures and its implications.   Speakers Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director, co-head of US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 02 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520589-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week we discuss the Dollar rally having stepped up a gear. Compare and contrast Q4-23 with Q4-22. Bottoms up USD drivers and positioning. European FX highest convictions. Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 29 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4521884-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast we discuss current risks plaguing the European and US natural gas markets, including the potential for power generation to provide some upside risk to our current 2024 price forecast for US natural gas and Norwegian outages that have helped the European natural gas market avoid storage congestion. However, ultimately we believe that weather firmly in the driver seat in dictating price formation for 2024.   Speakers Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Strategy Otar Dgebuadze, Global Energy Strategy     This podcast was recorded on 29 Sept 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4518638-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522775-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 28 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4521773-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta, and James Nelligan discuss their recently published Scandi Monthly outlook. They explain our latest views on the diverging economic outlook in Scandinavia and its impact on rates and FX markets.   This podcast was recorded on 28 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520080-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their recently published Global government bond activity chart pack outlining our latest views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds.   This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4515185-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies after a heavy week of DM central bank meetings.   Speakers:  Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan & Patrick Locke   This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4515282-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

After reaching our target of $90 in September, further price gains may be limited as we believe most bullish cues—both macro and micro—for the market have been exhausted for now. Our end-year target remains $86/bbl, while acknowledging that the path to this target can take different shapes. Relative to July, macro sentiment in September might be close to an inflection as the focus shifts to higher-for-longer US rates and sticky inflation. With pump prices surging and a seasonal travel peak behind us, oil demand risks are shifting to the downside and the support of China’s pent-up demand recovery is likely behind us. Russian crude oil exports rebounded by more than twice than expected in September and fuel exports booked prior to the ban continue to flow while China’s oil product exports are also rising. Oil positioning is no longer short. Our view remains that sharp inventory draws in 3Q23 will transition into a slight build during the final four months of the year. Preliminary stock observations suggest a build in global oil inventories in the first week of September.   Speaker Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Francis Diamond and Frida Infante discuss their recently published Monthly Inflation Outlook outlining our latest views on European and UK inflation.   This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4484727-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Fabio Bassi and Francis Diamond discuss views on the BoE meeting and potential market impacts as well as any read across to European markets from the Fed and BoJ next week.   This podcast was recorded on 15 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4514473-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The FX strategy team discusses FX implications of the latest ECB outcome, as well as the upcoming Fed, BoJ and European central bank meetings.    Speakers Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Katsuhiro Oshima, Japan Macro Research James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 15 September 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4513289-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin discuss their recently published Scandinavia Monthly Interest Rate Outlook outlining their views on the Swedish and Norwegian Interest Rates markets.   This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506279-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the implications of US resilience on US rates and FX markets heading into the ECB and Fed September  meetings. This podcast was recorded on 11 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509235-0 , http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509511-0 , http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506527-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting in September and potential implications for Euro area rate markets and intra-EMU spreads.   This podcast was recorded on 08 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509538-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 08 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506420-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Brent crude futures settled above $90 on Tuesday, for the first time this year. In the end, the extension of Saudi’s 1 mbd supply cut alongside Russia’s 300 kbd reduction in exports for an additional three months was needed to get the price there. Although we hold a constructive view on oil prices in the short term, we still don’t see oil prices breaching $100 in 2023, absent a major geopolitical event. As the market transitions from a large inventory draw in 3Q23, most visibly in the US, into a slight surplus in 4Q23 and 2024, prices should ease back toward the mid $80s. Both demand and supply will likely contribute to looser balances in the final quarter of the year, but the key to our lower price forecast is our outlook on the trajectory of demand in 4Q23. The softening in balances should be seen first in forward looking prices: in crude differentials for October loadings and softer structure at the front.    Speaker Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 8 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

This week, Global FX Strategists James Nelligan & Patrick Locke revisit US exceptionalism, China spillover to DM and take stock of the US political landscape.   This podcast was recorded on 05 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4504178-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Aditya Chordia and Francis Diamond discuss the latest themes and recommendations in Global SSA markets.   This podcast was recorded on 31 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4502123-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin discuss the recent dynamics of the upcoming September 2023/December 2023 Eurex futures roll cycle.   This podcast was recorded on 30 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4487200-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the themes in the US Rates and Derivatives markets and themes going forward.   This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4494781-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Late-week official resistance can slow but should not upend the uptrend in USD/CNY. The euro has been resilient as real yields moved up the US, but is still overshooting and will not be immune if CNH weakness extends. USD/JPY likely to test 150 before MoF intervention. Speakers:  Meera Chandan Arindam Sandilya Katsuhiro Oshima This podcast was recorded on 18 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4491146-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle. SPEAKERS: Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research   This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4487168-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Meera Chandan, Ladislav Jankovic and Antonin Delair discuss the main themes in FX markets with focus on macro, systematic and derivatives sleeves.   This podcast was recorded on 11 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4486479-0 http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4481894-0 http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4478190-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

On July 20, JP Morgan Commodities team recommended to raise allocation to commodities. Since then, commodities rallied but the move was driven by energy, while base metals moved sideways. BCOM Energy subindex surged 24% since mid-June and balances are pointing towards more upside in the near term. We see potential for US Henry Hub gas price to reach $3.30/MMBtu if a severe Australian LNG outage were to manifest alongside continued warmer weather forecast skew. We see Brent oil price hitting $90, or even above by September. But as the market transitions from a 3Q23 inventory draw into a slight surplus in 4Q23 and 2024, prices should ease back towards mid $80s.   Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on Aug. 11, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483453-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4484961-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss last week’s developments in the US Rates and Derivatives markets and themes going forward. Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy  Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4479817-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss US Treasury funding needs, the Fitch downgrade for the US and implications for rates and FX markets. This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4478190-0  and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4480993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.   This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4478415-0   for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The FY23 deficit is tracking about $1.5 trillion, but only thanks to the odd accounting of student debt forgiveness. Excluding student debt, the deficit would be closer to $1.8tn, and almost $1tn larger than in FY22. This widening should partly reverse as we move into FY24, when we project a deficit around $1.6tn. This year’s “stealth stimulus” may help explain the economy’s resilience to rapid interest rate hikes.   Speakers Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Phoebe White , Fixed Income Strategy  Afonso Borges , Fixed Income Strategy    This podcast was recorded on Aug. 1, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4471329-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

We discuss the FX implications for an event-laden week. US exceptionalism, European growth weakness and an incredibly slow BoJ pivot are the main themes. Speakers: Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4470939-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Drivers are paying more at the pump around the world. Prices for gasoline and other oil products like diesel and jet fuel have been rising in the US, Europe and Asia, as have been product cracks. The unwelcome shift higher in pump prices follows a jump in oil, which has climbed $10 so far in July to three-month highs partly in sympathy with a broader rally in commodities. Still, powerful fundamentals forces are at play in the Atlantic basin, some of them short term and temporary, but some structural and likely permanent.   Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4468929-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.   Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist    This podcast was recorded on 27 July 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report GPS LINK for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Luis Oganes, Saad Siddiqui and Tania Escobedo, discuss how the Mexican peso is undergoing a regime shift and is no longer the high-beta risk appetite currency that it once was.   Speakers: Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research Saad Siddiqui, Head of EM Local Markets Strategy Tania Escobedo Jacob, Latin America Local Markets Strategy     This podcast was recorded on 27 July 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4467683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Treasury supply has been in focus recently as the resolution of the debt limit has brought with it over $700bn in T-bill supply over the last two months. In coming weeks, the focus will shift toward longer-duration supply, as Treasury will likely announce increased coupon auction sizes at the upcoming August refunding. We preview the quarterly refunding announcement with a medium-term perspective toward Treasury issuance, and the implications for rate levels. Speakers: John Barry Phoebe White This podcast was recorded on July 24, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Catalyzed by the drop in US CPI inflation in June, near-term recession risk has moderated and the focus has shifted closer to the market’s favored scenario of a painless disinflation and economic soft landing. Amidst a broad-based rally in risky assets, commodities stand out as under-valued, under-owned, and backed by compelling fundamentals and technicals—a good entry point for a catch-up tactical allocation. The BCOM index gained 5% in July, but there is likely more where this came from. Should recessionary fears not materialize over the next six months, idiosyncratic risks leave the entire complex exposed to the upside, with the rally in BCOM extending. In order of preference, we favor natural gas, ags, oil and gold, and maintain neutral stance on base metals. Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities Gregory Shearer, Global Commodities Tracey Allen, Global Commodities This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4462795-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The Global FX team previews a loaded week for policy decisions.   This podcast was recorded on 21 July 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461188-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4465556-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4460975-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss views on EM fixed income markets in the wake of recent data developments and heading into summer. This podcast was recorded on 20 July 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Patrick Locke and James Nelligan from our Global FX Strategy team discuss implications from last week’s outsized USD sell-off. This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461188-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

A structural shift is observed in the global energy markets, where big buyers of energy can now buy energy at a discount from sanctioned Russia, Iran and Venezuela, countries that combined represent close to 20% of the global oil exports. Crucially, this oil is now either sold in the local currencies of the buyers or in currencies of countries that are perceived as friendly. Consequently, US dollar now plays a more diminished role in determining oil prices. This de-dollarization trend in the commodity trade is a boon for some EM countries, which can now not only buy oil at a discount but pay for it with their own local currencies. This reduces the need for precautionary reserves of US dollars, US Treasuries and oil, which in turn might free capital to be deployed in growth-boosting domestic projects. Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Jahangir Aziz, EM Economics This podcast was recorded on July 14, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4459447-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies mid rising global bond yields. Speakers: Arindam Sandilya,  Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4454683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

OPEC+ has been cutting oil output since November and after Monday’s announcement of additional cuts, the alliance will be holding back more than 4 mbd from the market. Yet the moves have so far failed to significantly tighten balances and lift oil prices, despite demand running above expectations. The group’s recent struggles may reveal a difficult underlying trend: non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand. To fully regain market power this year, we estimate OPEC+ needs to deepen its cuts by another 0.7 mbd in 2H23 in addition to already announced reductions, with the full cut extended into 2024.   Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities This podcast was recorded 7/7/2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4452093-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast, we discuss the outlook for core inflation over the next 6 months. Though core CPI inflation should moderate toward a 3.0%ar in the three months through September, we anticipate core inflation to stabilize at a 3.2%ar pace during the final three months of the year. Speakers: Phoebe White Michael Hanson Murat Tasci This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2023.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4449035-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.   

Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities   We calculate the incentive price of oil needed to ensure that the world has enough investment—and oil—in 2030 and to close the supply-demand gap of over 4 mbd. Assuming 2% inflation, the low end of the range for the Brent incentive price sits at about $63 based on an IRR of 20%. An IRR of 25% moves the incentive price to $78/bbl. Under a 4% inflation scenario, the range is $80 to $100. This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4381901-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and how much value there is in EM local markets and hard currency bonds. Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist  This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4446987-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Please join us for a discussion on the major takeaways from the second edition of our annual Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference, which was held in-person at our offices in London. The conference was attended by approximately 400 investors representing over 100 institutions, with 6 sovereigns and 27 corporate issuers participating.   Speakers: Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research Ayomide Mejabi, Emerging Markets Strategy Benjamin Ramsey, Emerging Market Research Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research   This podcast was recorded on 27-June-2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan’s FX strategy team lays out the case for being defensive/ bullish USD going into 2H. Other themes discussed are: bearish views on CNY, GBP, JPY and Scandis; selective exposure to FX carry which remains elevated and opportunities in derivatives.   This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4443645-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

2H23 will deliver a continuation of the tightening journey for most of DM central banks, at least over the summer, although differentiation across jurisdictions will emerge as we approach the end of the cycle.   This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4445501-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

There has been much discussion in the last year over the inability of the existing sovereign debt restructuring architecture to deal with a new wave of sovereign restructurings in a world where China is now the largest bilateral creditor. The end of more than a decade of easy money and global shocks have lead several countries into default and bond markets have priced out market access for a host of others. This has led to a problem of increasing needs to restructure EM sovereign debt, but a larger cast of creditors and no clear restructuring rule-book are causing delays, which have economic and societal costs.  The G20’s Common Framework (CF) aimed to get creditors together, but has stalled for many countries. With a hamstrung effort at new rules, and clear risks of more sovereign stress to come, there are many proposals for ways to improve or fully revamp the debt restructuring architecture. In this podcast, we take a look at the main issues that are troubling the current sovereign restructuring landscape, and review some of the proposed solutions.   Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist  Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Strategist    This podcast was recorded on 16 June 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4420237-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research  Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy    In our 2023 Outlook last November, we forecasted that the oil market would be in surplus in 2023, with fair value for Brent averaging $84, but believed OPEC+ alliance would succeed in balancing the markets, thus scaling up our average price forecast for the year to $90. We no longer believe that to be the case and recently revised our average 2023 price from $90 to $81. We keep the rising price path unchanged, with inventories now starting to draw. Demand is running above expectations: absent a deep recession, global oil consumption will likely rise a solid 1.6 mbd in 2023. However, more than offsetting this, global oil supply is set to increase 2.2 mbd. It is becoming increasingly clear that high oil prices over the past two years did exactly what they are supposed to do—incentivize supply. Crucially, non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand since the start of 2022, leaving the OPEC+ alliance having to cut production to balance the markets. Moreover, within the broader OPEC+ alliance, supply has been also rising outside the core members. Invariably, to make room for this supply growth, OPEC+ would need to cut more, were the alliance to adhere to the market management strategy.   This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4431498-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Natasha Kaneva and Saad Siddiqui discuss trends in de-dollarization through the lens of FX, commodities and EM. Speakers: Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4430393-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4396295-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4416313-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

This week our global FX strategists Patrick Locke, Arindam Sandilya & James Nelligan discuss outlooks and targets for the broad dollar, with a focus on USD/CNY, EUR/USD,USD/JPY and GBP/USD.   Speakers Patrick Locke,  Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 09June2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4432524-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US oil producers are off to a hot start of the year while gas producers are seeing movement as well. Total US liquids production (crude, condensate, and natural gas liquids) has reached an all-time high of 18.9 mbd in March. Our basin-level production forecasts for both oil and gas are changing shape – driven by upside in the Permian and the falling rig counts in the US. Even with rigs falling, the locations are key as gas declines are expected by July.     Speakers: Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities Cole Wolf, Global Commodities   This podcast was recorded on 09 June 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4435603-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Meera Chandan & Patrick Locke discuss the FX implications from the resolution of the latest debt ceiling episode through the lens of growth, risk premium and liquidity. This podcast was recorded on 05 June 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428044-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

OPEC+ alliance is scheduled to meet in Vienna this weekend amid continued weakness in crude’s price structure—both flat price and time spreads—along with increased speculative short positioning. On paper, and assuming no recession, OPEC’s April cuts should suffice to tighten oil balances in the second half of the year. Yet, so far the promise of future bullish supply tightening has not convinced the market of rising oil prices. It will take evidence in the physical markets (e.g., backwardation) to confirm what our balances imply before oil price can stabilize and begin to grind higher. For that, the alliance—or at least some members—would likely need to cut more. Communication is just as important as action in terms of market reaction to any cut. To avoid fueling the prevailing market narrative, it is important to stress that demand growth continues to be robust. Rather, there is simply too much supply.    Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

In this podcast, we discuss how the passage of debt ceiling legislation and the attendant rise in the TGA is likely to impact US rates markets.   Speakers Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research     This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4424256-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

The healthy cushion in storage created by a mild winter for the European natural gas market has now put it on a direct path for storage congestion, potentially as early as August. Strong LNG imports amid weaker-than-anticipated global LNG demand and lackluster industrial demand even at lower prices continue to contribute to these fears of storage congestion. In this episode, we discuss our view for the slide in European natural gas price – a potential soft price floor that can emerge with lower prices encouraging demand - particularly in the power sector.    Speaker Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 26 May 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4413200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and the divergence in performance between the local and hard currency pockets of the asset class.   Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist    This podcast was recorded on 25 May 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4421835-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We see no fundamental shift in the parameters of our forecast. Our supply-demand estimates point to a largely balanced market in January through April and a first deficit in May—a view confirmed by the latest IEA report which shows that after eleven months of builds, OECD commercial oil stocks drew 14 million barrels in February, followed by a hefty 56 mn bbls draw in March. With demand resilient and world oil supply set to fall starting from this month as wildfires shut in Canadian barrels and voluntary OPEC+ cuts take effect, we continue to project further tightening in the balances in the second half of the year. Consequently, our pricing model continues to screen $90 Brent, a target that remains our price forecast.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4417827-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam and Meera discuss the abrupt loss in China’s growth momentum and implications for CNH, EUR and the broad dollar.   This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4417140-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and analyse how the overall volatility environment is impacting on the alpha and beta components of returns.   Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist    This podcast was recorded on 18 May 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4414718-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss the risks facing global FX, and discuss recent developments across GBP, CHF, NOK and CAD.   Speakers Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 12 May 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4408998-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid banking sector stress and debt ceiling jitters in the US.   This podcast was recorded on 05 May 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4406134-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speaker Gregory Shearer, Executive Director, Global Commodities Research     Gold prices continue to mount a seemingly Sisyphean climb to break above all-time highs getting knocked lower again by a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report for April. In contrast, base metals prices have slumped more notably in the last few weeks as Chinese demand remains underwhelming and recession uncertainties keep investors on the sideline. While gold and silver prices will likely continue to chop in a range until more certainty is gained on the Fed’s future rate hiking plans we still think the long-term direction of travel is higher. On the other hand, copper and other base metals could be in for a bumpier ride in the coming months.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Scandi economist Morten Lund joins Currency Strategist James Nelligan to give an overview of the FX outlook with the economic backdrop in mind for Scandi and UK markets.     This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4396176-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4387929-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395340-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4396665-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4378202-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4399379-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

We discuss the US rates and global FX outlook ahead of the upcoming central bank meetings and US employment report.    Speakers Meera Chandan, Co-Head of Global FX Strategy Jay Barry, Co-Head of US Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 28 April 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4398604-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Thomas Palmer, Vice President of US Food Producers and Food Retailers This podcast was recorded on Apr 28, 2023. Wholesale diesel price in NY Harbor fell 37% from year ago levels, spurring worries of an impending recession. But the weakness in the US demand for diesel—fuel used in everything from trucks to construction equipment—is not a new phenomenon. Similar to gasoline, we observe that American truckers have been driving more on less. Data show that while demand for petroleum diesel has stagnated, consumption of biofuels like biodiesel and renewable diesel has been growing. In 2022, biofuels accounted for 4% of total US diesel supply, a share that is projected to increase to 15% by 2030.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395279-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the role of the USD as a dominant currency, the changing nature of EM foreign reserves, and the impacts of the US debt ceiling discussion on EM fixed income assets. Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on April 27, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4396295-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan and Saad Siddiqui discuss the outlook for FX given the gap end of cycle narrative and better than expected activity data.   This podcast was recorded on 21 April 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4380075-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4389047-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest drivers for EM currencies, a potential mis-pricing of front-end rates, and structural issues for distressed sovereigns.   Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist    This podcast was recorded on 20 April 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4391474-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Saad Siddiqui, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, Ben Ramsey Tune in as our Emerging Markets Research Analysts analyze country specific dynamics and potential risks for  countries across EM, including Tunisia, Ukraine, Zambia, Egypt, Turkey, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Ecuador and Argentina. This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Jahangir Aziz, Grace Ng, Sin Beng Ong Listen to our Emerging Markets Economists as they summarize China’s reopening, PBOC and interest rate policies, and the potential impacts of geopolitical risks stemming from the region. This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Luis Oganes, Saad Siddiqui, Cassiana Fernandez, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc Join our research analysts as they discuss the state of EM, global monetary policy and idiosyncratic factors affecting some countries. This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan and Roberto Henriques discuss the outlook for European banking sector and FX in the aftermath of US banking stress.  This podcast was recorded on 14 April 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4386463-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Our economists continue to look for a 25bp hike in May, followed by an extensive pause. Any pause by the Fed could mark a turn in what has been one of the most aggressive hiking cycles in decades. With oil market micro fundamentals turning positive, a shift in US monetary policy could be an important signal for the oil markets. Looking at Brent oil returns during 3, 6, 12, and up to 30 months after the Fed ends its hiking cycle, buying the last hike has proven to be the correct strategy historically.   Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 14 April 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4381809-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Oil experienced a bumpy ride in March as prices plunged mid-month on fears that weakness in the banking system could spark a full-blown recession.  Consequently, 1Q23 will likely close $3/bbl below our forecasted price of $85. Looking at the very near term, Brent at below $80 looks at least $5-7 oversold purely on fundamental reasons. What could act as a catalyst?   Speakers  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research This podcast was recorded on Mar. 31, 2023.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4370703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the recent events in the banking system and its implications for the US Rates and Derivatives markets.   Speakers:  Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4369801-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US strategists Patrick Locke & Phoebe White discuss this week’s Fed meeting, bank sector borrowing, and G10 inflation trends. This podcast was recorded on 24th March 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4369375-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the  impacts of the recent global banking stress on EM fixed income.   Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist    This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4368246-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook following the eruption of banking sector stress in the US and Europe.   Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 17 March 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4363526-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The sudden failure of SVB and Signature Bank forced a rethink about the health of the broader economy and spooked markets. Brent lost $11/bbl (15%) of its value over the last 10 days to settle at $74.70 a barrel on Thursday, its lowest level since December 2021. In the US, WTI futures tumbled to $66 in New York on Friday. For comparison, over the same period, S&P 500 equity futures slumped 3.6%, and copper prices edged 3.3% lower. Natural gas prices on both sides of the Atlantic stayed largely flat, while gold rose near 7%. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi and Greg Shearer to discuss the volatility in commodity markets and the outlook for 2Q23.     Speakers  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Natural Gas Research This podcast was recorded on Mar. 17, 2023.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357675-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4358592-0, and  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4359550-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the implications for EM assets of the large vol shock and increasingly late-cycle market moves. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on March 16, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4362300-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan held its 14th Global EM Corporate Conference in Miami (March 6-8).  We provide a 15 minute summary of the main takeaways, highlight of survey results, and regional color from the conference.      Speakers: YM Hong, Head of EM Corporate Strategy Alisa Meyers, EM Corporate Strategy Natalia Corfield, Latin America Corporate Research    This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4356352-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4359773-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva discusses why Chinese jet fuel demand is so important for global oil balances this year. In 2023, we project jet fuel to contribute 60% to global oil demand growth, with China accounting for 20% of that. Dragged down by a tepid recovery in international travel, China’s daily flights have stabilized at 84% of 2019 levels, 10%-pts below our initial estimates. We trim 1Q23 numbers but opt to keep our China jet fuel demand unchanged for 2Q23 and beyond. The most popular outbound destinations have lifted COVID testing requirements starting from March 11 and bookings for overseas travel have skyrocketed to Italy (59% vs 2019), Korea (29%), Australia (42%), and ASEAN (34%), suggesting outbound flights should pick-up significantly in the second half of March.  Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 10 March 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4354826-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss a round-up of FX views from recent meetings, refresh the global FX recessionary playbook, and look at recent developments for USD, EUR, JPY & CAD. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on March 10, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357220-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We developed a news-based machine learning framework for finding what themes are driving the FX vols. The framework also complements traditional techniques of judging if FX vol is rich or cheap and is currently suggesting that FX vol as an aggregate is mildly cheap. The framework currently identifies inflation as the most significant concern that investors remain most sensitive to, with commodities, central banks, market conditions and rates also been notable factors on that cross-section of news flows and FX vol beta to that news, but jobs only nominal / negligible. We monitor 28 SmartTag categories of macro risk across global news reports and capture their changes in volume and anxiety (inverted tone). We test the sensitivity of each category against the VXY (as a proxy to FX risk) and identify what investors seem to be currently most sensitive to. Any category that tests significantly positive we mark as a “Category of Concern” (CoC) and measure how much it is contributing to (or reducing) our inferred risk.   This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4335589-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for FX US and rates markets heading into key US event risk.   This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351568-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351146-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki and Ikue Saito. This podcast was recorded on Feb 27, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4333234-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4332014-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4323617-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4303279-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4343744-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4343845-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Greg Shearer and Tracey Allen to discuss commodities demand in China and how hopes for a strong China reopening have given way to concerns about falling cargo shipments, building commodity inventories and lackluster sales of homes and cars. While China’s economic recovery will drive its demand for all commodities higher, we believe oil is positioned to benefit the most this year. Global LNG, metals and several ags markets are set to benefit later in the year and enjoy a full recovery in 2024.   This podcast was recorded on Feb. 24, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4340793-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for FX ahead of a possibly pivotal month.     This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4344557-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4329269-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest fundamental and market developments in EM fixed income. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on February 23, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4343228-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss J.P. Morgan’s bullish forecast update for gold and silver prices and recent activity in the market including unprecedented levels of central bank purchases. While we have held a constructive view on gold and silver since last September, rebounds in the prices of both metals since late last year have outpaced our expectations as the US dollar weakened more than expected.  The recent post-payrolls jump higher in the US dollar  triggered some technical breaks in gold and silver taking some built up froth out of gold prices in particular.  However, we do not think its a game changer with both metals appearing poised to continue pushing higher in the coming quarters. Marking our price forecasts to market and embedding the latest JPM base case for falling US real yields and a largely neutral US dollar, we have upgraded our 2023 gold and silver price forecasts by around 10% and now see gold prices rising to average $2,045/oz in 4Q23 with silver increasing to an average of $26.6/oz. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325246-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

FX strategists Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya discuss the event-packed week and the ramifications for FX markets. This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4332305-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest macro trends and idiosyncratic developments driving EM fixed income assets. Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist   This podcast was recorded on 3 February 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325612-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and Saad Siddiqui discuss the event-packed week and the ramifications for FX markets. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM   This podcast was recorded on 02 February 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325568-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4317702-0.pdf, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4324128-0.pdf  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The US Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that in the first eleven months of 2022, American drivers used 10 kbd less gasoline than in the corresponding period the year before and 540 kbd less fuel than in 2019—a surprisingly weak outcome given that Americans collectively traveled more last year than in 2021 and drove a similar amount of miles as in 2019. We see a modest increase in US gasoline demand in 2023 and a further improvement in 2024, but given the structural shifts in the US gasoline market, peak gasoline demand now appears to have been 9.85 mbd, set in August 2019. A structural decline in US gasoline consumption will reverberate globally given US gasoline accounts for 9% of global oil demand. The implications will be both on refining—via a mismatch in supplies of products and price spikes—and the quality of crude as focus of refiners shifts from fuels to chemicals and from crude to natural gas liquids as a feedstock.   Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 03 February 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4321829-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook ahead of next week’s central bank meetings.   This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4318937-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by John Royall, Head of the US Integrated Oils & Refining equity research team to discuss the outlook for refined oil products like diesel ahead of the February 5 European embargo on imports of Russian oil products. Brent oil price has gained 13% from the bottom reached on January 4 to trade at $88/bbl, $5 above our model-derived fair value for January. While optimistic demand expectations from China’s reopening have helped oil regain December losses, we believe soaring middle distillate prices and cracks are mostly behind crude’s bullish price action. We expect volatility in distillate cracks and prices in 1Q23 around embargo implementation but see market imbalances clearing by 2Q23 and risk premium dissipating as Europe and Russia had a year to prepare.  Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research John Royall, Head of U.S. Integrated Oils & Refining equity research   This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4318088-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss positioning in EM fixed income assets and whether this could put the brakes on performance in the near term. This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4317702-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, Tohru Sasaki and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook after this week’ BOJ meeting. This podcast was recorded on 20 January 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4313340-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Parsley Ong and Shikha Chaturvedi to discuss the implications of an earlier than expected reopening of the Chinese economy and recent revisions to our global natural gas outlook. While investors so far have chosen to play China’s reopening through metals, we believe oil is positioned to benefit the most. We upgrade China oil demand but maintain our Brent price forecast for the year at $90/bbl and see prices  averaging $85 in 1Q, scaling up to $89 in 2Q and exiting the year at $94. Absent any major geopolitical events, it would be difficult for oil prices to breach $100 in 2023. Meanwhile, a bullish narrative for global natural gas markets is hard to maintain when winter weather struggles to appear – particularly when supply is plentiful. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy and Chemicals Equities Research Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on 20 Jan 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4311885-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4309913-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss whether a China reopening has been over- or under-priced by EM fixed income assets. This podcast was recorded on January 19, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4312195-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss changes to the EUR, CNY & JPY outlooks. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ben Shatil, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 13 January 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4307604-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Gregory Shearer and Tracey Allen to discuss the exceptionally strong wintertime heat being observed across the Northern Hemisphere and its implication on the broader commodities complex. January forecasts of the Population Weighted Heating Degree Days index (PWHDD) for the Northern Hemisphere currently sit more than three standard deviations warmer than the 10-year mean, leading to swings in prices and pressures on fundamentals. At the same time, the team discusses the impact on commodities demand from an earlier than expected reopening of the Chinese economy.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agriculture Research   This podcast was recorded on 13 Jan 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and James Nelligan discuss the cross-currents affecting the dollar and highlight why cyclical G10 currencies in the euro bloc are underperforming.   This podcast was recorded on Friday 06 January 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4301207-0 ,   for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss what’s new for EM fixed income markets as we start the new year. This podcast was recorded on January 5, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4299965-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for FX and rates markets following the soft US inflation print, FOMC and China re-opening. This podcast was recorded on 16 December 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4284551-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4289691-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss implied PCA framework – a new forward-looking PCA framework that can be useful in identifying potential Fed regime shifts, and more. This podcast was recorded on 13 December 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4267726-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In our latest rates strategy podcast, Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss our 2023 outlook themes for the Euro area, UK and inflation. We outline our thoughts on the upcoming ECB and BoE meetings, discuss our views on curve, duration, intra-EMU spreads, swap spreads and volatility as well as outline opportunities in inflation markets.   This podcast was recorded on 28 November 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4269808-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, Meera Chandan, Benjamin Shatil, James Nelligan, Patrick Locke and Antonin Delair discuss JPMorgan’s Global FX Strategy outlook for 2023. Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Ben Shatil, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 23 November 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4268149-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4270636-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Luis Oganes, Jonny Goulden and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the outlook for emerging markets for 2023.     This podcast was recorded on November 23, 2022.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4269370-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for FX markets following the soft US inflation print and the seismic price action that followed.   This podcast was recorded on November 11, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4261385-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX and rates strategists Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for FX and US rates markets following the Fed and US employment data.   This podcast was recorded on 04 November 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4250579-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4246653-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4252466-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4254375-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4252859-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures  for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss how EM markets may react to an eventual peak in US policy rates. This podcast was recorded on November 3, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4252794-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss the FX outlook leading up to next week’s FOMC meeting.   This podcast was recorded on 28 October 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4246166-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss recent crisis level EM bond market volatility which has brought reactions from policy-makers.   This podcast was recorded on October 27, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4244519-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Mike Feroli, Jay Barry, Srini Ramaswamy, discuss the latest in US economics and rates strategy.  Mike offers his view on the outlook for the economy and the Fed over coming months, and the conditions required to slower the pace of Fed hikes. Jay discusses the shifting demand backdrop in the Treasury market and how this could affect the yield curve, as well as liquidity environment and the potential for a Treasury buyback facility. Srini digs into the outlook for swap spreads, bank balance sheets, and implied volatility.   Speakers: Michael Feroli Jay Barry Srini Ramaswamy This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4233044-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4221745-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4232549-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4238988-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4239154-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4232596-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4220597-0 please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss the FX outlook leading up to next week’s BoJ meeting and following events in the UK. This podcast was recorded on October 21, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4238664-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We introduce a systematic strategy for identifying signals and selecting late-cycle / recession FX options hedges. 1) we first run Random Forest algorithm to zero in on the most relevant signals for hedging risk-off episodes; then 2) we build a 4-factor model that selectively buys defensive FXO based on model predicted P&L. The highest beta to risk-off events is achieved with four signals: m/m change in 1-y z-score of ATM vol, m/m change in 1-y z-score of realized vol, 1-y z-score of 6-month % change in spot, and m/m change in 1-y z-score of fwd pts/vol (i.e. carry/vol). We find short-term tenor to be most responsive to adverse episodes, 30%TV digitals to be showing the least decay, and the longer expiry structures tend to hold better during the low vol times. Overall 3M - 6M expires offer a good compromise. At current market, our 4- factor model favors high beta G10 digi structures with AUD structures dominating within the top 5: 3M to 6M 30%TV at-expiry digitals in AUD/SGD put, USD/CAD call, EUR/AUD call, GBP/USD put and/or AUD/CHF put. This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only.   Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss latest areas of focus around EM debt for both policy makers and financial markets.   This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4237302-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss why we are still bullish on the dollar and highlight our fresh targets for EUR, JPY and CNY.   This podcast was recorded on 13 October 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4231857-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4231649-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4225946-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

J.P. Morgan Co-Head of FX Strategy Meera Chandan, Chief US Economist Michael Feroli and Head of Beverages, Household and Personal Goods Analyst Andrea Teixeira are brought together by our Head of Content Strategy, Samantha Azzarello to discuss the outlook and the impact of a strong dollar.   This podcast was recorded on October 7, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4220820-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Patrick Locke and Ladislav Jankovic discuss tactical and fundamental issues for sterling, as well as the state of play in derivatives markets.   This podcast was recorded on 30 September 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4220251-0 ,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4220180-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4218921-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss the ongoing pressure on EM assets as US financial conditions tighten, which is now impacting less risky parts of EM FX and credit. This podcast was recorded on September 29, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4218945-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are  Tohru Sasaki, Ayako Fujita, Benjamin Shatil, Takafumi Yamawaki and Rie Nishihara This podcast was recorded on Sep 29, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4212921-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4213038-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4214418-0.pdf , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4213133-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4215243-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and Ben Shatil discuss why USD/JPY will continue to rise despite the first MoF intervention in 24 years to buy yen and why we stay long dollars even with the broad index at five decade highs.   This podcast was recorded on 23 September 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4214409-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4213038-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss the impact of a hawkish Fed and rise in US real yields on EM fixed income markets.   This podcast was recorded on 23 September 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4213903-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan researchers Meera Chandan, Francis Diamond, Allan Monks and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for the UK economy, rates and FX markets following the historic fiscal plan. This podcast was recorded on September 16, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4208824-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4208942-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4206423-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4201080-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In the podcast we discuss latest developments in FX options markets, touching on EUR and Yen positioning in FX options markets, Yen volatility surface backdrop, Brazil election pricing and European – LatAm relative value. This podcast was recorded on September 12, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4203121-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4204124-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki and Benjamin Shatil This podcast was recorded on Sep 8, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4200131-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4190370-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4195632-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss the outlook for bellwether USD pairs at key levels—EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNY.   This podcast was recorded on 02 September 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4195632-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4197402-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX and Rates strategists Meera Chandan, Aditya Chordia and Francis Diamond discuss market implications of key European events in September—ECB/BoE meetings, Italian elections and the Tory leadership choice.   This podcast was recorded on 24 August 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4184594-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4185006-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan’s Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the Treasury roll and factors that may impact it.   Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy Ipek Ozil   This podcast was recorded on August 22 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4178736-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Greg Shearer discusses the recent supply closure announcements across base metals markets and why prices have seemingly shrugged off the headlines. As gas and power prices continue to rise in Europe, this week brought two additional closures of zinc and aluminum smelter capacity on the continent. Despite this and ongoing power rationing impacting supply in China as well, base metals prices have traded lower on the week as concern is now also rising that energy shortages are reaching a pivot point where demand could and will likely begin to be more severely impacted as well.   Speaker: Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on Aug 19, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4184535-0    For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss recent developments in the US, Europe and China and discuss the motivation for further dollar strength.   This podcast was recorded on 19th August 2022 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4184594-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4182953-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4182309-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4182228-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Tracey Allen and Ruhani Aggarwal discuss their latest fundamental and price assessment for agricultural markets through 2022-23. Grain prices are consolidating around costs of production after one of the largest ever positioning washouts on record through June-certainly more abrupt, increasing risks of a late summer recovery. With one go the warmest Northern Hemisphere summers on record threatening production potential across Western Europe, and Ukrainian agricultural exports flowing well below capacity indefinitely, agricultural markets warrant close attention. Price forecasts through 3Q22 have been marked-to-market, prompting lower revisions for grains, palm, sugar and cotton markets, amid a tighter fundamental environment. The forecast profile continues to embed a fundamentally driven recovery through end 3Q22 into 4Q22 - reflecting the physical tightness in exploitable supplies, as material supply side downgrades are realized, and consumer demand emerges after a hiatus. Investor flows post-holiday season will also be important to monitor. This podcast was recorded on 12 August 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4178532-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Ben Shatil and Patrick Locke discuss the dollar outlook following this week’s CPI inflation print.   This podcast was recorded on 12 August 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4178532-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the channels through which China’s slower growth can impact the different parts of EM fixed income: EM FX, rates and credit markets. This podcast was recorded on August 4, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4169250-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan Chief US Economist Mike Feroli joins interest rate strategists Jay Barry and Alex Roever to discuss take-aways from the July FOMC meeting, the outlook for policy rates, impact on the treasury curve, and outlook for Treasury’s August refunding.   Speakers Alex Roever, US Rates Strategy Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research Jay Barry, US Fixed Income Strategy   This podcast was recorded on July 29, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/resehttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159127-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159401-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4160963-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and Ben Shatil discuss the dollar and yen outlook following this week’s Fed meeting.   This podcast was recorded on 29 July 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4162663-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Natasha Kaneva and Ted Hall discuss the proposed Inflation Reduction Act and the recent sell-off in the commodities market. On Wednesday, Sen. Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin unveiled the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022—a $739 billion revenue-and-spending deal aimed at lowering carbon emissions and curbing healthcare costs. If approved, this would be the biggest federal investment in clean energy ever made in the US. And, despite financial markets trying to price in a recession, crude oil prices have moved in the direction of our base case forecast. Crucially, neither our oil demand estimates nor our price forecasts established in mid-March envisioned a recession. While we do not believe the risk of recession is priced in the oil price yet, that risk is growing.   This podcast was recorded on Friday 29th July 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4158963-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent signs of complacency emerging in EM markets, as the relief rally leaves negative real rates looking low compared to the risks ahead. This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4160842-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki, Ayako Fujita, Takafumi Yamawaki and Rie Nishihara This podcast was recorded on Jul 22, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4145611-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4147191-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4150862-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4145839-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4153834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the key issues to focus on for the euro, China and the upcoming Fed meeting. This podcast was recorded on July 22, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4154377-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent signs of stress in EM fixed income markets and whether these point to a bottom for EM risk assets or are part of an ongoing period of macro headwinds. This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4152980-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week will be an action-packed one for EUR/USD with the ECB, Italian politics and gas supplies from Russia all in focus. We unpack these issues and discuss implications relevant for rates and FX investors. This podcast was recorded on July 18, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141167-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4147414-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4148303-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan Chief US Economist Mike Feroli joins interest rate strategists Jay Barry and Alex Roever to discuss the pros & cons of a 100bp hike to the Fed funds target rate at the July meeting.  They also discuss curve inversion and the current state of treasury market liquidity.   Speakers: Alex Roever, US Rates Strategy Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy   This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Tracey Allen and Ruhani Aggarwal discuss the outlook for agri markets after the collapse in prices in June and July. The confluence of macro headwinds from decadal highs in the US dollar, rising recessionary risks and fears of a return to COVID lockdowns in China, to sharp losses across crude oil markets have continued to override ags markets fundamentals and associated weather-related production threats this week. Material progress towards mobilizing the grain and oilseeds stored at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports appears to have been made during discussions between military delegations from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations on Wednesday in Istanbul. This apparent agreement is not an indication of a normalization in Ukrainian export flows but certainly a step in the right direction for global food supplies.   Speakers Tracey Allen, Head of Agriculture Research, J.P. Morgan Ruhani Aggarwal, Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan   This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4146561-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4145982-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Greg Fuzesi, Aditya Chordia and Meera Chandan from the J.P. Morgan economics, rates and FX team discuss the outlook for Eurozone in their baseline and stress scenarios.   Downside growth risks over 2H22 are building owing to elevated gas prices and risks to supply. The ECB would likely focus on high inflation at first and low growth later. EUR/USD forecast has been marked down to 0.95 from parity. Enter long 5Y Germany vs. US and turn tactically underweight periphery via short 10Y Italy vs. Germany on expectation that the market would continue testing the ECB.   This podcast was recorded on 12th July 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141167-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141656-0  , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4139679-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva discusses J.P. Morgan’s baseline view on global oil markets and associated risks. We expect Russian exports will adjust towards other buyers without a serious disruption to its production. This, combined with the 1.2 mbd monthly drawdown of global strategic petroleum reserves and demand beginning to falter amid record-high oil product prices are sufficient to prompt a fragile balance and stabilize the global oil price in the low $100s in 2H22 and high $90s in 2023. Macro risks are becoming more two-sided. A 3 mbd retaliatory reduction in Russian oil exports is a credible threat and if realized will drive Brent crude oil prices to roughly $190/bbl. On the other hand, the impact of substantially lower demand growth under recessionary scenarios would see Brent crude oil price averaging around $90/bbl under a mild recession and $78/bbl under a scenario of a more severe downturn. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on July 8, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141238-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki, Ayako Fujita, Benjamin Shatil, Takafumi Yamawaki and Rie Nishihara Developments in Japan’s economy and markets, including inflation, the BoJ’s monetary policy, government bonds (JGB) and currency (JPY) markets are obviously unique and different from those in the rest of the world. In this podcast, we would like to share our latest views across asset classes. This podcast was recorded on Jul 7, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4130528-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4132824-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4137092-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4134898-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4129712-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Anatoliy Shal, JPM’s Chief Russia Economist, to discuss the potential impact of the new set of goals set out by the G-7 to cut Moscow’s revenues. The G7 announced a potential cap on prices of Russian oil and an import ban of Russian gold. Given Russia’s strong fiscal position thanks to higher energy prices and lower imports in the wake of western sanctions, the country can cut up to 5 mbd of production without excessively hurting its economic interest, all the while driving global oil prices to stratospheric $380/bbl. Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Anatoliy Shal, Chief Russia Economist This podcast was recorded on July 1, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4135652-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan US interest rate strategists Srini Ramaswamy, Teresa Ho and Alex Roever are joined by economist Michael Feroli to discuss QT (quantitative tightening) and its impact on banks and money markets. This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Ted Hall to discuss the implications of Biden administration’s proposed federal gas tax holiday. As millions of Americans prepare for summertime driving, including over next month’s July Fourth holiday, the Biden administration continues to look for ways to ease record fuel prices. Cutting fuel taxes, changing blending requirements, and capping gasoline exports could each provide some temporary relief to US consumers, yet, until supply-side issues—namely, an acute shortage of refining capacity—are addressed, most measures intended to reduce the price of gasoline will instead likely encourage Americans to drive more, in turn leading to higher gasoline demand and yet higher gasoline prices. The reality is that, with demand stimulated and supply constrained, fuel prices won’t drop until demand does. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research   This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4127358-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4114639-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast we discuss our medium term views on Euro area inflation, its impact on ECB delivery. We also discuss our main trading themes on the German curve, intra-EMU spreads, money market/swap curve, swap spreads, and rates volatility.   Speakers Fabio Bassi, Head of European Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist Francis Diamond, UK Gilt and European Inflation Strategist Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist   This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4129745-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

In this episode of At Any Rate, we say goodbye to negative-yielding debt, which has declined rapidly to just $5.9trn from a peak of $17.2trn in Q1/2020, with Japan now accounting for 78% of the remaining stock. Structural forces pointing to higher real yields, greater macro volatility and faster moving business cycles. Much higher US inflation volatility could easily make inflation average 3-4% over the next decade. A traditional 60/40 equity-bond allocation by our estimates prices in ~5% pa return the next decade, up from 3% at the end of 2021, as the market repricing year-to-date has cheapened US bonds and equities, and raised our 10-year out expected returns by 2% pa relative to end-2021. We favor assets where income can rise more with inflation, and where asset prices fall less, favoring Health Care and Financials, EM FX, Commodities (ex-Gold) and market-neutral hedge funds. Commodity-linked assets provide an effective hedge against the risk of a persistent rise in inflation, including livestock, industrial metals, and energy futures with Energy stocks favored over the short run and Global Utility stocks over the long run. Speakers Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research Jan Loeys, Head of Long-term Strategy Alex Wise, Long-term Strategy Preetham Nanda, Global Index Research Peter McCrory, US Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Greg Shearer, Tracey Allen and Ted Hall to discuss the outlook on global commodities. As conditions of acute scarcity persist across all commodities, world is entering the traditional peak demand season with inventories 19% below historical average. This lack of inventory buffer leaves the market vulnerable with outsized impact on prices amidst any shock to supply. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research   This podcast was recorded on June 17, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4123032-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan Economist Michael Feroli joins US Rates Strategists Jay Barry, Phoebe White and Alex Roever to discuss their thoughts on the June FOMC meeting. This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Luis Oganes, Jonny Goulden and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the outlook for emerging markets for the second half of 2022.   This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Ted Hall to discuss supply-demand dynamics in the global fuel market. Western refiners were already shutting down refining capacity before the COVID demand shock drove another 2 mbd of refining capacity closures over the past two years. Sanctions on Venezuela and now Russia have reduced effective capacity in Europe and the US even further. While Russia finds it difficult to find alternative markets for its products, China has cut fuel export quotas by over 50%. With demand set to pick up pace as US driving season kicks off and China comes out of lockdowns, fuel prices will continue to rise until they reach the point of demand destruction. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research   This podcast was recorded on June 10, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4114639-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Tracey Allen to discuss the fundamental and price outlook for agricultural markets through 2022-23. The precarious situation of historically high food prices and risks of physical shortages of cereals and vegetable oils over the years ahead presents an immensely challenging outlook for agricultural supply chains and risk management. Historical episodes of food price inflation have typically been driven by supply side shocks, often from adverse weather. For agri markets, this time is different, and far more complex and likely longer to overcome-despite the aggressive selloff across markets through late May. Agri prices are expected to remain elevated through 2023 and likely beyond. Though, stymied investor risk appetite amid discussions of a humanitarian export corridor for Ukrainian food exports, downside global growth risks and hand to mouth consumer buying, has driven a downward revision in our price forecasts through 2022. This podcast was recorded on June 3 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4110968-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan’s Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil join Alex Roever to discuss trading futures in a low liquidity environment. This podcast was recorded on June 1, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss the outlook for platinum and palladium prices after a volatile start to the year.  Prices of both metals surged into early March on intensifying concerns around Russian supply. Yet this risk premium has sharply eroded in the last two months as fundamental concerns quickly shifted from lost supply to disintegrating demand as disruptions have once again snarled automotive supply chains.  While trimming near-term forecasts to account for the diminished S&D fundamentals, a stabilizing rebound in light vehicle production as well as a recovery in industrial activity in China should support prices for both metals in the coming quarters. Though, over the medium-term, PGM prices look set to diverge with platinum prices likely to see further gains on tightening fundamentals while palladium faces a number of stiff structural headwinds.   This podcast was recorded on 27 May 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4104253-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent bear market bounce in EM local markets and how to assess moves on EM local bonds. This podcast was recorded on May 26 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4105618-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Ted Hall to discuss gasoline market dynamics. The national average US retail gasoline price topped $4.50 a gallon this week for the first time. With expectations of strong driving demand—traditionally, the US summer driving season starts on Memorial Day, which lands this year on May 30, and lasts until Labor Day in early September. Typically, refiners produce more gasoline ahead of the summer road-trip season, building up inventories. But this year, since mid-April, US gasoline inventories have fallen counter seasonally and sit at the lowest seasonal levels since 2019. A major driver in these counter-seasonal draws in gasoline is higher-than-normal exports that are unlikely to persist at current prices. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research   This podcast was recorded on May 20, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4096782-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the positioning and flow supports or risks to EM fixed income assets, as market volatility persists.   This podcast was recorded on 20 May 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4099123-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

A stablecoin has become unstable. US and global funding markets and regulators are watching closely for signs of contagion.  J.P. Morgan’s Teresa Ho joins Alex Roever to discuss their note on recent developments.   Speakers Alex Roever, US Rates Strategy Teresa Ho Gentile, US Fixed Income Strategy   This podcast was recorded on May 13, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4091899-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Natasha Kaneva discusses the pivot point the global economy is at, necessitating a realignment in the US trade objective from free to "free but secure.” The new plurilateral trade order would realign commodities supply chains among like-minded countries (friend-shoring) to ensure the availability, affordability, security, and sustainability of natural resources. In addition to significantly higher costs of commodities production and supply chain redundancies, the management of strategic and commercial inventories will also have to change, replacing the just-in-time supply chain with just-in-case.   Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on May 13, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4075607-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Tracey Allen discusses Indonesia’s ban on exports of some edible oils that commenced yesterday. The ban is an attempt to manage domestic food price inflation and food security. Wider challenges to the global agricultural supply side response will also be discussed.   This podcast was recorded on 29 April 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4068836-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4070164-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Peter DeGroot is joined by Alex Roever to discuss our updated US rates strategy view. Ye Tian and Sabrina Spatz also join to discuss the worst muni 1Q performance on record, as well as muni sectors including airports and state and local governments.   Speakers: Peter DeGroot, Head of Municipal Research & Strategy Alex Roever, Head of US Rates Strategy Ye Tian, Municipal Research & Strategy Sabrina Spatz, Municipal Research & Strategy   This podcast was recorded on April 5, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent market weakness in EM currencies and their relationship to CNY, commodities and the broader dollar. This podcast was recorded on April 28, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4075554-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Luis Oganes, Jessica Murray and Lydia Harvey discuss our second survey of dedicated EM investors that focused on how climate is incorporated into EM sovereign ESG strategies. Survey results reveal that human induced climate change is one of the top three ESG related concerns of EM fixed income investors, who communicated that generating positive real-world climate impact was an important consideration in their ESG strategies, particularly as EM economies face significant transition and physical climate risks.   This podcast was recorded on 26/04/22. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4061324-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The May FOMC meeting is fast approaching.   Markets have priced in a 50bp hike to the Fed funds rate, and nearly 200bp more for the balance of 2022.   US Rates strategist Alex Roever is joined by Economist Mike Feroli and Government strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe White to discuss rates, yield curves and inflation. This podcast was recorded on April 25, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi to discuss why the recent rise in US natural gas price has resulted in little change in the supply and demand balance at the current time. With US natural gas price now above $7/MMBtu and an end-October storage trajectory of 3.4 Tcf, traditional levers of supply increase and demand destruction that would manifest at this price level have been missing. This is particularly true in terms of demand destruction as the US coal balance now appears tighter than the US natural gas balance. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on April 22, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4068518-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss the latest news across base and precious metals.  European smelter curtailments and dwindling available LME inventories of zinc has sparked supply security fears in yet another industrial metal.  How concerned should industrial consumers be?  Moreover, the pair discuss the impact of the LPPM’s suspension of Russia’s two PGM refineries and whether or not gold will ever trade on real-yield fundamentals again.   Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on April 14. 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4057950-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4061524-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4060660-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.