US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 96bps, 92bps, and 160bps respectively. Backup in yields biggest near-term headwind, reflecting soft/no-landing optimism but also rising re-inflationary fears, with 10Y breakevens at their highest level since June. Fed's latest Beige Book noted economic activity little changed since September. Existing home sales for September posted a surprise decline, coming in below expectations at the slowest pace in 14 years.

US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading as stocks ended little changed though off worst levels. Rate stabilization has provided some cushion from risk off tone that spilled over to this morning. Earnings today a mixed bag with some scrutiny on select cyclical and rate-sensitive names.

US equities finished lower in uneventful Monday trading. This week starts the peak of Q3 earnings with 112 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. Nothing on the economic calendar today and a slow data week ahead, though a bit of Fedspeak.

Major US equity indices were higher this week, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all up for the sixth consecutive week (and the S&P closing at another fresh record high on Friday). The soft-/no-landing narrative continued to gain support from cooperative economic releases, particularly Thursday's robust September retail sales report which saw healthy m/m growth in control-group sales. Elsewhere, Q3 earnings results have continued to point toward growth, with the blended EPS y/y growth rate for S&P constituents currently at 3.4% (with ~14% of index members now having reported).

US equities finished narrowly mixed in Thursday trading. Growth and momentum were providing leadership in today's trading, with the AI secular growth theme the big focus following Taiwan Semiconductor earnings and guidance, pushing semis to the best day in three weeks. September headline retail sales came in a bit higher than expected, up 0.4% vs Street consensus of 0.3%.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near best levels though the S&P fell short of another all time high. Market gains broadened out on a largely catalyst-free day. Earnings activity continues to pick up while macro is quiet into a busier Thursday featuring retail sales, an expected 25 basis point rate cut from the ECB, and a China press conference to detail property support measures.

US equities finished mostly lower in Tuesday trading, ending near worst levels. Semis sold off following soft bookings, guidance and demand commentary from ASML. Financial/bank earnings were fairly well received though bar had moved higher following results on Friday. Fed Empire manufacturing, which printed at (11.9), well below consensus for +3.0 and September's +11.5.

US equities finished higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading. It was a quiet start to the week with the US bond market closed for holiday, plus a waiting game for more Q3 earnings and a big macro data day on Thursday. Earnings season ramps up a bit this week with 43 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report, representing about 9% of market cap.

US equities were higher this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq each logging their fifth straight week of gains. There was a blizzard of Fed-speak this week, though nothing to seriously shift market expectations for another 25bp FOMC rate cut in November. September's headline and core CPI readings came in a bit ahead of consensus, seeing increases in categories such as airline fares, used cars, and vehicle insurance. Headline and core September PPI, on the other hand, were largely in line with consensus.

US equities finished lower in a fairly choppy Thursday trading. Some of today’s downside was tabbed to a hotter than expected CPI print, though both analysts and Fed officials played down the report, noting that it's just one month of data. The latest earnings updates are also offering mixed takeaways around consumer trends.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 103bps, 71bps, and 60bps respectively. Today’s $39B 10Y auction tailed 40bp, and dealer take was the lowest since 2018. Department of Justice is considering asking federal judge to force Google to sell parts of its operations. Hurricane Milton has bounced between a Category 4 and Category 5 storm today ahead of its expected landfall in central Florida Thursday morning.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending just off their best levels at the close, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 30bps, 97bps, and 145bps respectively. Busy day of Fedspeak. Today's Treasury auction of $58B in 3Y notes tailed, with softer bid-to-cover and weak foreign demand. Hurricane Milton rapidly intensifying and on a direct course for central Florida. China’s economic planning body announced no new stimulus. Israel considering a retaliatory strike against Iranian energy infrastructure.

US equities were lower in Monday trading, ending just off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 94bps, 96bps, and 89bps respectively. A risk-off day across the board as both stocks and Treasuries sold off. Not many new updates to the broader narrative, but a lot of focus on recent backup in yields amid hawkish Fed repricing after last week's blowout September jobs report. Kashkari today said he has confidence in inflation moving back to targeted rate, though the balance of risks shifting more toward higher unemployment.

US equities were slightly lower this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both breaking three-straight weeks of gains. Geopolitical risk sparked a ramp in oil prices this week, which could add risk to the soft-landing narrative and potentially put upward pressure on inflation. The big data report this week was September payrolls, which came in at 254K, above 150K consensus, while the prior two months were revised up 72K and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%.

US equities closed lower in Thursday trading, ending not far from worst levels. Quiet session with light volume and choppy trading with market in a waiting game for September NFP tomorrow. Middle East tensions continue to be flagged as an overhang. Weekly initial claims printed a bit above consensus.

US equities finished fractionally higher overall in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 9bps, 1bp, and 8bps respectively. Stocks stabilized today, largely shrugging off recent Middle East developments, while work stoppage at US East and Gulf Coast ports a widely flagged potential growth and supply chain risk. ADP private payrolls of 143K came in above 125K consensus. Richmond’s Barkin said Fed may have trouble covering the "last mile" on inflation.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, but ended off worst levels. Market trading risk off to start October/Q4 with latest ramp in Middle East tensions the go-to excuse. JOLTS job openings came in firmer than expected. ISM manufacturing a bit weaker than expected at 47.2 in September. Nothing incremental in Fedspeak.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off their best levels after erasing afternoon declines, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closing up 4bps, 42bps, and 38bps respectively. Fed Chair Powell said that if the economy evolves as expected, two 25bp cuts are the base case for remainder of year. Fed Governor Bowman repeated her preference for slower easing. Atlanta's Bostic said he's open to a 50bp move should the labor market weaken. September’s Dallas Fed Index came in ahead of estimates, and Chicago PMI came in slightly ahead of consensus on backlogs and employment upside.

US equities were higher for the week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new fresh all-time highs today, and the Nasdaq locking in five straight sessions of gains. China stimulus, Micron earnings, and August core PCE were the big stories this week. The global easing cycle was in the headlines with the SNB delivering its third consecutive rate cut and flagging the potential for further easing, while the probability of an ECB rate cut in October picked up as well.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading as stocks rebounded from Wednesday's mostly lower session. A number of bullish updates included much better than expected results and guidance from MU, while broader AI secular growth theme also supported by NRG, ACN updates. Initial claims of 218K below consensus, lowest since May, while continuing claims in line. Durable goods orders beat.

US equities were mostly lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off worst levels. Nothing really new today as market continues to wait for NFP next Friday and start of Q3 earnings. August new home sales declined less than expected m/m, with July revised higher. 

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels after a fairly uneventful afternoon. September consumer confidence came in below an upwardly revised August, with the present situation and expectation indices both lower m/m. September's Richmond Fed manufacturing index slipped m/m, with employment a weak spot.

US equities were mostly higher in fairly quiet, rangebound Monday trading. September flash manufacturing PMI slipped to 47 from 47.9 in August, below the 48.5 consensus. A busy week of Fedspeak lies ahead, with Bowman, Kugler, Williams, Barr, Cook and Collins all on tap.

US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P setting a new fresh all-time high on Thursday (its 39th record close of the year) before trimming gains on Friday. After months of anticipation, the Fed this week opened up its long-expected easing cycle with a 50 bps rate cut, matching expectations as represented by futures pricing but coming against broad analyst consensus forecasting only 25 bps. August retail sales were slightly positive vs expectations for a decline, with analysts pointing to favorable weather and solid back-to-school shopping trends.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, ending not far from best levels. A big rally for stocks today following yesterday’s 50 basis point Fed rate cut., which saw the S&P 500 hit a fresh record close. In macro news, initial claims came in below consensus, falling to its lowest level since May.

US equities finished lower Wednesday, ending near worst levels in choppy post-FOMC trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 25bps, 29bps, and 31bps respectively. Monetary policy pivot was the big story today with the Fed opting for a more aggressive 50 bp rate cut. While the Street seemed to largely be in the 25 bp camp, the market was leaning toward 50 bp. August housing starts and building permits both came in ahead of consensus.

US equities finished largely mixed in Tuesday trading. Another quiet session ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Today's August retail sales report was a bit stronger than expected whereas previews suggested a weaker report could have tipped the scales more conclusively toward a bigger cut. Fed pivot and economic soft landing still seen as the main driver of the bullish narrative. 

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading in a quiet session after stocks caught a big bounce last week. It was a largely uneventful session as the market waits for the Fed's rate-cut decision on Wednesday. In macro news, the New York Fed's Empire manufacturing survey for September unexpectedly flipped positive for first time since November 2023.

US equities ended higher this week with big tech leading the way on the heels of some positive AI momentum and amid oversold conditions, after the S&P 500 posted its worst performance last week since March of 2023, and the Nasdaq since January of 2022. The August CPI report was a big highlight of the week ahead of Wednesday's September FOMC meeting. August headline CPI was largely in line while monthly core was hotter, with shelter prices the significant component of the core rise, and airline fares higher after five months of declines.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. Stocks rallied amid today's modest ramp in 50 basis point rate cut odds after a media report that seemingly offered some additional support for an outsized move. In macro news, headline August PPI printed in-line but core PPI was a bit hotter than consensus, following yesterday's uptick in core CPI.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending at best levels as the market reversed some morning post-CPI weakness, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 31bps, 107bps, and 217bps respectively. August headline CPI was largely in line, up +2.5% y/y, while monthly core was hotter with shelter prices the significant component of the core rise and airline fares higher after five months of declines. Today's $39B 10Y Treasury auction stopped through, following a strong 3-year note auction on Tuesday.

US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though ended near best levels after reversing midday weakness. Today also saw rotation back into tech/semis/AI trade following well received Oracle earnings. Some underwhelming banking sector updates, weak auto guidance out of Europe and softness in commodities. Next big catalysts are tonight's presidential debate and tomorrow's release of August CPI.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though ended off best levels. It was a very quiet session with few catalysts as the market rebounds off of Friday's weakness but continues to wait for key catalysts ahead, namely the September 18th FOMC meeting. It was also a fairly light economic calendar today, which included August’s Manheim used car index.

US equities were lower this week with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance since March 2023 and the Nasdaq’s since January 2022. Stocks were lower this week on growth worries, hawkish Fed rate cut repricing, and a shift toward "bad news is bad news" on soft economic data. Today's August payrolls was the big catalyst this week, following other soft data this week.

US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading but ended a bit off worst levels. It was an up-and-down session after today's mixed data, including a weak ADP print and better claims and ISM services, as the market continues to balance soft-landing hopes with questions about whether the Fed will opt for a 25 or 50 bp cut at its September 18th meeting. Friday brings the employment report, which is seen as a key input in this ongoing debate.

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, ending just off worst levels, with the Dow Jones closing up 9bps, while the S&P and Nasdaq closed down 26bps and 30bps respectively. Growth worries in focus again following softer JOLTS job openings and some cautious Beige Book takeaways. Atlanta Fed's Bostic said Fed must not maintain restrictive stance for too long, giving equal weight to employment side of mandate.

US equities finished down in Tuesday afternoon trading, ending near worst levels. Big risk-off session to start September. Came alongside another bout of global growth fears. Market in waiting mode for Friday's August payrolls report, which could offer best indication on Fed's near-term rate cutting path. August ISM manufacturing contracted m/m against expectations for an uptick.

US equities ended mostly lower this week in a fairly uneventful, low-volume week of trading heading into Labor Day weekend. Nvidia reported a beat and guided above consensus, though shares opened lower. July core PCE was in line with consensus, though the y/y print came in below estimates, while headline PCE was in line.  

US equities were mixed in Thursday trading as stocks ended well off best levels, with month-end and MSCI rebalancing looming Friday. US equities shed its gains amid an afternoon selloff, though there were no catalysts behind the move and likely amplified by low volume. Nvidia was a sizable drag with post-earnings weakness seemingly driven by more elevated expectations, while the latest batch of data eased some growth fears.

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off session lows. Today's weakness was fairly broad-based, but there was nothing seemingly definitive behind the move with the market still in waiting mode ahead of Nvidia earnings, which were reported after the close. The treasury supply was again in focus with today's poorly-received $70B 5-year note auction, which tailed ~0.3 bp, following yesterday's solid $75B 2Y sale.

US equities were mostly higher in fairly uneventful Tuesday trading. S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished modestly higher. Another very quiet session devoid of catalysts ahead of NVDA earnings on Wednesday after the close. August consumer confidence came in ahead of consensus. August Richmond Fed index deteriorated vs consensus for some improvement. 

US equities were mostly lower and mixed in Monday trading, though ended a bit off worst levels. There’s fairly thin news flow and nothing to shift the broader market narrative. The market is focused on Nvidia NVDA earnings on Wednesday as the next key input for the AI secular growth theme.

US equities were higher for the week, with major indices adding on to last week's strong gains. The big focus of the week was on the Fed's policy path forward, with expectations firm for some sort of easing in September but still a fair bit of uncertainty about the magnitude and pace given worries about the labor market and the ongoing debate about a soft versus hard economic landing. The market ends the week with the S&P back over 5600 and not far below July's record highs, having largely (and quickly) erased the downslides earlier this month on concerns about faltering growth and a Fed that was behind the curve.

US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. The market moved lower after a higher open, but there was no definite catalyst behind today’s shift, though the move may be exacerbated by thin late-summer volumes, especially amid anticipation for Powell's comments at Jackson Hole tomorrow. In macro news, weekly initial jobless claims were largely in line, while continuing claims were lighter versus consensus, though still hit its highest level since November 2021.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending just off their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 14bps, 42bps, and 57bps respectively. The BLS annual payrolls benchmark revision came in at -818K, largest negative revision since the Great Financial Crisis. July FOMC minutes flagged heightened risks to employment and noted majority of participants believe September cut likely appropriate. Markets raised odds of a 50 bp cut in September by ~10 bp to 39%.

US equities finished lower in uneventful Tuesday trading, though ended off worst levels. Market continues to wait for Powell on Friday and Nvidia earnings next Wednesday. Path of least resistance remains higher on soft-landing narrative traction, looming Fed rate cuts and favorable flow dynamics.

US equities finished higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, ending near best levels. The market's attention remains pulled ahead to Fed Chair Powell's Friday speech at Jackson Hole as well as Nvidia earnings next week. Nothing on the US economic calendar today and a very quiet week ahead in macro news.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke four-week streaks of declines and posted their best weekly performances since November of 2023. July core CPI was in line with consensus, though the three-month annualized core CPI pace of 1.57% was the slowest since Feb-21, while the six-month annualized pace of 2.84% is the lowest since March-21. Fedspeak leaned more dovish this week, with Atlanta's Bostic warning that the Fed needs to be more mindful of the employment mandate, while Chicago's Goolsbee said that the Fed needs to cut rates before the labor market weakens further, or it would risk moving too late and negatively impacting the economy.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. Today's upside was driven by more soft landing optimism after July retail sales and the latest initial claims data offered pushback against growth concerns after yesterday's CPI print added to the well-understood disinflation momentum. It’s been a busy day on the US economic calendar today in macro news.

US equities were mostly higher in uneventful Wednesday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 61bps, 38bps, and 3 bps respectively. Headline July CPI and core CPI came in right in line with consensus, both rising +0.2% m/m. Retail sales on tap for Thursday with the Street looking for headline retail sales to increase 40bps in July. Fedspeak included Chicago's Goolsbee, saying the Fed needs to cut before labor market weakens further.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels. Disinflation traction today's tailwind for risk sentiment following cooler July PPI print. Macro expected to remain the key near-term directional impulse. Retail also traded well today despite some initially disappointing earnings takeaways.

US equities were mixed in somewhat choppy, uneventful Monday trading. Not a lot of new directional drivers today, with the market continuing to weigh well-worn themes. Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's retail sales are expected to get outsized attention this week.

US equities were down for the week, though major indices recovered from worst levels after Monday's big declines (when the S&P logged its worst daily decline since September of 2022; and the Nasdaq its worst since October of 2022). The market this week lived in the echo of last Friday's weaker-than-expected July payrolls report, which seemed to fan fears about a coming hard landing and a Fed well behind the curve. At the same time, there was also commentary about drawdowns as a normal feature of the equity markets and the fact that even at Monday's close, the S&P was only 8.5% below its record high from July 16th.

US equities ended higher in Thursday trading, just off best levels, with S&P 500 logging its best daily performance since October 2022. The market rallied off the back of this morning's jobless claims data, which came in below consensus and is likely to accelerate pushback against hard-landing, recession, and bear market concerns. In macro news, initial jobless claims came in at 233 K, below consensus, its lowest in four weeks and reflecting some moderation from recent Hurricane Beryl-related disruptions. It's also been a busy day of consumer earnings results.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 60bps, 77bps, and 141bps respectively. Market was unable to carry over momentum from Tuesday's broad-based bounce. Today's $45B 10Y auction tailed 3 bp. Bid-to-cover was the weakest since Dec-22 and dealer take most since April. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida stressed need to maintain current levels of monetary easing for the time being and ruled out tightening when markets unstable.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, though ended off best levels with a bit of selling in the later afternoon. Market engineered a firm bounce following Monday's big drawdown. Several dynamics in focus, including Fed pushback against recent pickup in hard-landing concerns.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, though ended off worst levels. • Global risk-off was again the story of the day. Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are both in correction territory while the S&P is now down nearly 8 point 5% from its July 16th record high. July ISM services beat estimates with new orders back into expansion, its highest since March, though prices paid ticked slightly higher.

US equities ended lower this week after putting in a mixed performance last week. This week saw sentiment move decidedly negative with a focus on growth and recession concerns amid a stream of weak employment and manufacturing data punctuated by Friday's nonfarm payrolls miss and spike in unemployment. The July FOMC decision left rates unchanged as broadly expected with no explicit indication of a September rate cut (though seems to be a forgone conclusion now).

US equities were lower in Thursday trading, though ended a bit off worst levels. Growth worries moved to the front burner today after another weak ISM Manufacturing reading and a step-up in jobless claims. There was also a continuing buildup of consumer-softness commentary in earnings calls.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though ended a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 24bps, 158bps, and 264bps respectively. Tech bounce was the big story for the better part of today. The Fed held the benchmark rate, and Fed Chair Powell said in press conference that a September rate cut could be on the table. July ADP private payrolls missed, and Q2 ECI came in cooler versus expectations. Post-Bank of Japan yen strength the big story in FX.

US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, ending well off worst levels. Recent rotational dynamics returned today with semis/AI weaker after seeing some modest gains on Monday trading. While some drag tabbed to latest batch of earnings, AI scrutiny has been ramping higher over the last few weeks with the focus on elevated capex vs uncertain monetization/productivity tailwind. May FHFA home price index was little changed, and July consumer confidence came in above consensus.

US equities ended mostly higher in Monday trading. The recent rotation trade out of momentum, growth, and tech and into small caps, value, and cyclicals have taken a breather today. It’s going to be a busy earnings week with more than 170 S&P 500 companies set to report earnings this week.

US equities were mixed this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower, though the equal-weight S&P 500 and small cap Russell 2000 outperformed the large cap index for the third straight week. This week saw more of the same rotation from recent weeks, with small caps and cyclicals among the relative outperformers, while technology, AI-linked stocks, and momentum again sold off. Data this week that helped elevate growth concerns included July flash manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly fell into contraction territory, though flash services PMI improved slightly. June existing home sales fell to the slowest pace since December and new home sales since November.

US equities finished mixed in Thursday trading, ending off best levels from midday. Several dynamics were in focus following a big Wednesday selloff, which saw the S&P 500 suffer the biggest one-day pullback since December 2022 and snapped the 356-day streak without a 2% or more decline. Initial jobless claims dropped more than forecast w/w after last week's print which was the highest since August of 2023.

US equities finished down in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq falling 125bps, 231bps, and 364bps respectively. Today marked the Largest S&P decline since Dec-22; and the Nasdaq logged its worst daily performance since Oct-22. Disappointing big-tech earnings takeaways were a major overhang on sentiment. July composite flash PMI was in line. June new-home sales were well below consensus. June US Architecture Billings Index (ABI) increased to 46.4 from 42.4 in May.

US equities finished mostly lower in Tuesday trading, ending near worst levels. Big tech was mostly higher after leading market on Monday. Still a lot of debate about whether recent rotations out of momentum/growth/tech and into small caps/cyclical/value will continue. Earnings flagged as the next key input with big tech results in focus. Existing-home sales came in well below consensus.

US equities finished higher in relatively quiet Monday trading, with the S&P and Nasdaq rebounding after last week's declines. Politics dominated the headlines following Biden’s exit from the presidential race, though there was also skepticism about whether it provides a meaningful shift in the near-term election calculus. Flash US PMIs, new home sales, Q2 GDP, durable goods orders and PCE inflation are the notable releases for the week.

US equity indices were mixed in this week's trading, with the market largely continuing to see a rotation out of big tech/growth/momentum and into value, cyclicals, and small caps. The week's big economic release was June retail sales, which were flat against expectations for a monthly decline. There was some notable Fedspeak, primarily a Monday appearance by Chair Powell in which he said incoming data has given policymakers more confidence on inflation.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks extended Wednesday's declines, though finished a bit off worst levels. Lots of moving pieces were in play today as the market extended recent declines, though massive rotational dynamics were not as clear cut today as over the last week or so. Politics is in focus again with Axios reporting that some top Democrats believe Biden could exit the race as soon as this weekend.

US equities finished mostly lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing +59bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 139bps and 277bps respectively. June housing starts and building permits both came in well ahead of consensus. June industrial production beat. Fed’s Waller said he believes the Fed is getting closer to a cut being warranted, while Williams ruled out July easing. July Beige Book noted most districts saw slight to modest growth.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels. Tuesday saw an extension of recent rotation out of tech and into value/cyclical/small-caps. Analysts optimistic on durability of broadening given factors including soft-landing support, disinflation traction, elevated odds of GOP sweep in November, and expectations around Fed easing. June retail sales flat m/m, better than consensus for a monthly decline, while May revised higher. Auto sales weak as expected on cyberattack impact.

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, though ended well off best late-morning levels. Stocks extended last week's gains and last week's rotation into small caps, value, and cyclicals, and out of big tech, long momentum, and high beta groups. Fed Chair Powell said he wouldn't send signals around any particular meeting, which some early economist reads said suggests July may be off the table.

US equities ended higher this week, with the Dow Jones +1.59%, the S&P500 +0.87%, and the Nasdaq +0.25%. Small-caps and equal weight S&P 500 strongly outperforming the other major indexes following post-CPI rotation out of big tech, while at the same time, the official S&P 500 index reached all-time highs this week. June's CPI disinflation sparked rotation from big tech toward small caps and non-big tech groups, creating a relative drag on the S&P and Nasdaq. Big banks kicked off first round of corporate results and mostly underwhelmed. Biden spent the better part of the week rejecting calls for him to exit the presidential race. Fed Chair Powell concluded a largely uneventful two-day testimony before Congress, with big takeaway the two-sided risks to economy.

US equities finished mixed in Thursday afternoon trading. This morning's cooler-than-forecast June CPI report drove today’s price action. However, disinflation sparked rotation from big tech toward small caps and non-big tech groups, creating a relative drag on S&P and Nasdaq.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 109bps, 102 bps, and 118bps respectively. Chair Powell's second day of congressional testimony noted recent improvements in the data but hopes for increased confidence in the disinflationary path. Today's $39B auction of 10Y notes stopped through, with solid bid-to-cover and strong demand from directs. Street expecting tomorrow’s June core CPI to increase 0.2% m/m in June, which would leave the y/y rate at 3.4%.

US equities ended mixed on Tuesday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq locking in sixth-straight gain.  Chair Powell's appearance offered no change Fed rate cut path outlook, while latest Treasury auction the latest in a string of well-received sales. Bank earnings the focal point and another report today about less onerous capital requirements. 

US equities ended mostly higher Monday, though off best levels. It was a fairly quiet session with the market in waiting mode ahead of this week's inflation data and the kickoff of earnings season. New York Fed one- and five-year inflation expectations for June declined month over month with consumers seeing slower expected price gains for rent and food.

Stocks were higher this week with the S&P 500 rebounding after snapping a three-week streak of gains last week, while the Nasdaq was higher for a fifth-straight week as both hit fresh-record highs. The key near-term upside narrative this week was more support for a September Fed rate cut after data showed cooling inflation and weaker labor market data. Cooler data this week included Friday's June payrolls report beat, but the prior two months were revised down a combined 111K while the unemployment rate rose for a third-straight month to 4.1%, the highest since November of 2021.

US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones ending down 6bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 51bps and 88bps respectively. The S&P and Nasdaq both posted fresh record closes. June ISM services re-entered contractionary territory, and the final S&P services PMI for June was also lower. ADP private payrolls were a bit below consensus, with wage growth job stayers slowest since August of 2021. Initial jobless claims were a bit above expectations, and continuing claims also higher than expected. FOMC minutes out this afternoon noted participants continued to look for ‘greater confidence’ in disinflation trajectory.

US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. Market started the day a bit choppy but ended stronger amidst several moving pieces. Rates have stabilized following a big backup over prior two sessions partly driven by heightened probability of a Republican sweep. Powell highlighted progress on inflation and two-sided risks to Fed's goals.  JOLTS came in stronger than expected and macro narrative remains volatile.

US equities were mostly higher in fairly quiet Monday trading. It was a busy day from a headline perspective, though fairly quiet from an index level. In macro news, June ISM manufacturing missed, its lowest since February, though there was a notable drop in prices-paid index, and new orders improved, though the employment index fell back into contraction territory.

US equities ended mostly higher this week with solid performances from big tech (though Nvidia again underperformed). The big focus this week was on some disappointing key corporate updates, the Trump-Biden presidential debate, the May PCE report, and a continued volatile macro narrative. Core PCE inflation was in line with consensus with April revised slightly upward.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading after an up-and-down session that saw official S&P performance a hair behind the equal-weight index. It was a fairly quiet and uneventful session, though there were a few dynamics at play. Today's mixed economic data and cautious consumer updates also seem to reflect a gradually cooling economy and solidifying hopes for a September cut and pushing rates lower.

US equities ended mostly higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 4bps, 16bps, and 49bps respectively. May new home sales missed. Architecture Billings Index declined in May to its lowest level since August 2020. Today's $70B auction of 5-year notes saw slight stop through in latest well-received sale. Micron trading lower after hours as revenue guidance was shy.

US equities finished mixed in Tuesday afternoon trading, with S&P and Nasdaq breaking a streak of three straight declines. Today saw some reversal of the recent momentum unwind.  Underwhelming corporate updates were another area of focus. Little directional impulse from economic calendar or Fedspeak. Stretched positioning and buyback blackouts flagged as near-term headwinds.

US equities ended mixed Monday, well off best levels. Nvidia, semis, and AI-linked names extended recent declines, with Nvidia now off more than 10% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down over 5% since 18-Jun. However, breadth is positive with strong performance across value and cyclical groups. There was not much on the economic calendar as the June Dallas Fed Index missed, though was better m/m.

US equities ended higher in this shortened week of trading with the Equal Weight S&P outperforming the official index. Fed rate cut expectations received a boost from the latest retail sales report, which added to the growing pool of evidence of a cooling US economy. AI enthusiasm also continued to provide support to sentiment with Nvidia surpassing Microsoft on Tuesday to become the most valuable public company.

US equities ended mostly lower Thursday, near worst levels. Price action reflects some consolidation across recent AI winners after Nvidia surpassed Microsoft on Tuesday to become the most valuable public company. a busy day of economic data include an initial claims miss, though slightly off last week's nine-month high that triggered some growth worries, while continuing claims was also a bit higher than expected and the highest since January.

US equities ended higher Tuesday, a bit off best levels. S&P locked in 31st record high of the year. No new developments around the major themes as today's big event, May retail sales, reaffirmed weakening consumer trends and growth concerns and offered more support for September rate cut. Sentiment remains positive and the path of least resistance still seems tilted to the upside, though the macro narrative has been flip-flopping over the past few weeks.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off best levels as an afternoon rally erased some morning weakness. Not much was behind today's risk-on move with very few catalysts to start what is expected to be a fairly quiet week, with Wednesday being a market holiday in the US. June Empire manufacturing beat as employment index weakened, though prices paid and prices received indexes both fell and the future conditions index was its best in more than two years.

US equities were mixed this week as the S&P and Nasdaq posted solid gains, while the Dow and Russell 2000 were both lower. This week's upside driven in large part by another rate rally and more soft landing optimism after the May CPI and PPI reports added to the disinflation traction narrative. The June FOMC meeting ended with no change to the benchmark rate at 5.25-5.50% as expected.

US equities finished mixed in Thursday trading, ending not far from best levels after some midday weakness. The market struggled to continue Wednesday's momentum despite more signs of renewed disinflation traction from the PPI results. Headline May PPI unexpectedly declined month over month and core PPI was cooler than expected.

US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 9bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 85bps and 153bps respectively. risk-on sentiment was driven by renewed disinflation traction from a cooler than expected May CPI print, with headline flat and core up only 0.2% m/m. Little surprise from today's June FOMC meeting. Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, and updated dot plot showed just one rate cut in 2024. Oracle missed but stock rallied on strength in RPOs, upbeat 2025 guidance and new AI-driven cloud deals.

US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels and seeing the S&P and Nasdaq both set fresh record closes. Several smaller themes were in play today, but the big narrative is that the market is in waiting mode ahead of tomorrow's May CPI and June FOMC releases, though few surprises are expected from either report, and market sentiment has largely coalesced on the Fed remaining on hold until at least September. Today's $39B 10Y note auction was stronger than expected, stopping through by ~2bp and taking some pressure off yesterday's weak 3Y note auction.

US equities finished higher in Monday afternoon trading, ending near best levels. The market shook off some early-morning weakness and is now seeing gains across the major indices ahead of a number of high-profile catalysts this week. It’s been a light day on the economic calendar, including the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, which showed 1 year inflation expectations tick down 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%.

US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both logging their sixth gain of the past seven weeks and setting fresh record highs earlier in the week. It was another big week for big tech, with Nvidia garnering a lot of attention for its continued run higher and move above $3T in market cap. On the jobs front, a decline in April job openings and a below-consensus May ADP report played into expectations for continued softening in job creation, but Friday nonfarm payrolls were much hotter than expected (and average hourly earnings grew faster than forecast as well).

US equities ended mostly lower Thursday, with the Dow Jones closed up 20bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished down 2bps and 70bps respectively. Initial jobless claims came in above consensus, hitting their highest level since early May. Continuing claims were in line, though highest since late March. Final first quarter productivity came in below consensus, while unit labor costs also were revised below consensus. The ECB cut its benchmark rate by 25bp as expected.

US equities ended higher Wednesday, near their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 25bps, 118bps, and 147bps respectively. ADP private payrolls were up 152K, softer than the 175K consensus and the lowest print since January. May ISM services beat, with prices paid falling m/m to its lowest since March, while employment was slightly higher but still in contraction territory. Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate by 25 bp, as expected, and ECB expected to cut tomorrow.

US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday, a bit off best levels. Not much behind modest late afternoon recovery from session lows with another Treasury rally and dovish repricing around Fed rate path the easiest excuses.  Growth concerns remain key area of attention following softer ISM manufacturing print. April JOLTS job openings of 8.059M well below 8.360M consensus, lowest since Feb-21.

US equities ended mixed Monday, recovering from session lows. May ISM manufacturing missed, falling further into contraction territory. New orders also missed, though the employment index was higher, back into expansion territory and the best since August 2022.

US equities ended lower this shortened week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq breaking five straight weeks of gains. Regarding consumers, there were more signs of weakening and additional talk about a pushback on pricing and the need to ramp up value proposition, however, the broader consumer resilience theme is still largely intact. Regarding this week's economic data releases beyond PCE, May consumer confidence index strengthened ahead of consensus after three months of declines, helped by a perceived strong labor market.

US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, though off worst levels. Despite the weak index finish market breadth was positive, with somewhat softer economic data contributing to lower Treasury yields after a notable multiday backup driven by hawkish Fedspeak, oversupply concerns, and firmer data. In macro news, Q1 GDP was revised down to a 1.3% SAAR in the second read from the prior 1.6% flash, with the release pointing to a downward revision to consumer spending.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending not far from worst levels after having remained in largely the same range through the bulk of the session; Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 106bps, 74bps, and 58bps respectively. Rate backup the big overhang on stocks as of late, made worse this afternoon by yet another weak Treasury auction, with $44B in 7Ys tailing around 1.5 bps, and underlying metrics worse than recent averages. May Richmond Fed Index beat. Fed's latest Beige Book report noted most districts saw slight or modest growth.

US equities finished mixed in fairly uneventful Tuesday trading, though ended off worst levels.  Rate backup on supply pressure and firmer data (and commodity rally) an overhang. May consumer confidence improved on both expectations and current conditions. Labor-market differential better as well.

US equities were mixed this week though the Nasdaq posted a fifth-straight weekly gain while the S&P 500 finished fractionally higher for a fifth-straight gain. Data also skewed positive this week, including May flash manufacturing and services PMIs both ahead of consensus, including flash composite PMI the highest in two years. Nvidia earnings were the highlight of this week's batch of results.

US equities ended down Thursday, near session lows. Market mood is negative today, with solid economic data contributing to the good-news-is-bad-news dynamic and adding some more support to the higher-for-longer Fed narrative. However, major market indices are getting some support from Nvidia’s NVDA beat and raise against a high bar.

US equities ended lower Wednesday, not far from their worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 51bps, 27bps, and 18bps respectively. May FOMC minutes discussed "disappointing" data not boosting policymakers' confidence and that disinflation was likely to take longer than previously thought. April existing home sales missed, though March sales revised higher and inventory dynamics continued to improve. Goldman CEO Solomon said he doesn't see Fed cutting rates this year. nVidia beat on earnings and guidance, raised its dividend and announced a stock split.

US equities ended mostly higher and near session highs in uneventful Tuesday trading. No big directional drivers in play coming off a four-week rally driven by soft-landing narrative traction. Quiet on the macro front aside from the flurry of Fedspeak and Fed officials not really saying anything new with next key inflation data point still a few weeks away.

US equities ended mostly higher Monday in a fairly quiet, rangebound session. No meaningful impact from Middle East developments, but the market is still closely monitoring the news. Nothing on the economic calendar today, though it’s been a busy day in Fedspeak.

US equities were modestly higher this week, with major indices logging their fourth consecutive week of gains. It was a week of renewed momentum for some meme stocks, including GME +27.2%. April core CPI was in line with the headline a bit softer than expected. It was a lighter week for Q1 earnings, with only seven S&P constituents reporting. Overall, the season continues to come in better than expected.

Stocks had a largely uneventful trading session and lost some early-morning strength as the day evolved. Soft-landing narrative traction is the big tailwind for risk sentiment as of late. Another busy day for both economic data and Fedspeak.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 88bps, 117bps, and 140bps respectively. The S&P 500 set a new record close for the first time since 28th of March. Headline CPI a bit cooler than expected in April while core CPI was in line with consensus. Retail sales came in below expectations, while April’s NAHB homebuilder sentiment saw a greater-than-expected drop. Fed’s Kashkari said it would be prudent to sit a while and figure out where inflation is headed.

US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. The Market's path of least resistance seems to be remaining higher, with investors largely shaking off a hotter headline PPI (with likely some reprieve from limited spillover to PCE and negative revisions). There was nothing particularly incremental from Fed Chair Powell, who reiterated skepticism about a rate hike as the next policy move.

US equities finished mixed in largely uneventful Monday trading, spending much of the session near the unchanged mark. Another quiet, low volume session before the market exits a catalyst vacuum starting tomorrow with key inflation and consumption data. NY Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations noted consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations rose in April at both the one- and five-year time horizons.

US equities ended higher this week and largely in waiting mode ahead of next week's CPI reading. Market navigated a largely catalyst-free trading period this week with depressed volumes as it waits for next week's April CPI reading. There were both bullish and bearish narratives throughout the week. With Friday's nonfarm payrolls report below consensus, this week's claims numbers further alleviated some concerns around the economy heating up rather than cooling.

US equities ended higher Thursday, extending the week's upside, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq both on pace for third-straight weekly gains after three-straight weekly declines. The market had a generally constructive tone today, though there is still a lot of anticipation for CPI next week. Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 231K after weeks near 210K, while continuing claims were in line.

US equities ended mixed in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing up 44bps, while the S&P500 finished flat and the Nasdaq down 18bps. Fed's Collins said getting to 2% target inflation may take longer than expected. Today's auction of $42B of 10-year notes tailed after yesterday's well-received 3Y auction; with $25B in 30Y bonds coming up for sale tomorrow. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stepped up warning over weak yen's impact on monetary policy.

US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday in a fairly uneventful trading session. The Fed's Kashkari said he questions policy restrictiveness given inflation data and was the latest central banker to talk about a higher neutral. Today's auction of $58B of 3Y notes stopped through with help from solid foreign demand.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending at session highs. Not much behind today's upside with few catalysts, no real change to any of the key themes, and market volumes low. The Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey said slightly more banks tightened C&I loan standards in Q1 and saw weaker C&I, industrial and residential real estate demand quarter over quarter.

Stocks were higher as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erased early-week declines off of relatively dovish Fed takeaways and an April payrolls report that added some support to the soft landing theme. Wednesday's May FOMC meeting ended with no change to the policy rate as expected, holding at 5.25-5.50%. Data this week offered some mixed takeaways.

US equities finished solidly higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. The simplest excuses for today's more optimistic tone are dovish takeaways from Powell's Fed comments yesterday and the lower-rate backdrop. Q1 productivity undershot expectations while unit labor costs up at a 4.7% SAAR (though up 1.8% across last four quarters).

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, with the market selling off into the close, after a big post-Powell boost; Dow Jones finished +23bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 34bps and 33bps respectively. Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, and announced a larger-than-expected reduction in Treasury runoff caps from $60B to $25B, starting in June. ISM manufacturing index missed and moved back into contraction territory. JOLTS job openings came in lower than expected. April ADP private payrolls were ahead of consensus.

US equities ended lower Tuesday, near worst levels, with stocks more than erasing Monday's modest gains. Market was on the defensive today after hotter Q1 ECI data sparked a rise in Treasury yields. Growth concerns also in the mix after weakest consumer confidence print since July 2022 and lowest Chicago PMI since November 2022. Earnings a mixed bag ahead of some additional big tech reports over the next couple of days. 

US equities ended higher Monday, just off best levels, in a mostly uneventful day of trading. The market gave up some strength in the later afternoon after the US Treasury released Q2 borrowing estimates that were marginally higher than the January estimate. Another big earnings week is ahead with 175 S&P 500 companies reporting this week.

US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P breaking a streak of three straight weekly declines and the Nasdaq up after four weeks down. Corporate earnings were a big part of the week's narrative, with investors taking in reports from 158 S&P constituents--including several highly anticipated megacap tech firms. April flash PMIs came in broadly below consensus, reflecting an overall reduction in orders for the first time in six months and companies scaling back employment for the first time in nearly four years.

US equities ended lower Thursday, just off best levels as market regained some sharp early-morning losses. The market shook off some of the overhang from disappointing tech earnings and stagflation worries sparked by this morning's economic data. The first read for Q1 GDP came in below consensus at a 1.6% SAAR, with the release noting increased consumer spending, but weaker private inventory investment.

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, little changed after a strong start to week, with the Dow Jones down 11 bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 2bps and 10bps respectively. March headline and core durable goods orders beat though February revised down across the board. Today's $70B auction of five-year notes tailed after yesterday's strong two-year note auction. Visa was helped by accelerating US volumes.

US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. Momentum, growth, long duration, small-caps, and lower quality were the big factor beneficiaries. Bounce continued today with help from lower rates/weaker dollar in the wake of softer flash PMI data. Some better earnings takeaways, particularly from several of the higher-profile names also helping. 

US equities ended higher Monday, off best levels. Market bounce seems to be gaining traction amid talks that recent selloff is more technical than fundamental. While macro is quiet, micro has very busy with approximately 40% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report this week.

US equities ended mostly lower this week as the market struggled to shake off more hawkish repricing of Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical volatility in the Middle East. Recent Fedspeak supplied ongoing support for higher-for-longer rate narrative with Powell noting this week recent data has shown lack of further progress on inflation. Beyond more hawkish Fed commentary and volatile geopolitics, some other bearish narratives from this week included a big retail sales beat, flagging AI tailwinds as NVDA and SOX are both in corrections, stretched systematic long positioning, and spiking volatility with the VIX at six-month highs.

US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. For the second straight day, the market's bounce attempt ran out of gas, though not much behind today's weakness, with rates the easiest excuse as the 2Y is back near year to date highs. The April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index notably improved month over month, hitting its highest level since April 2022, while employment remained in contraction.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 12bps, 58bps, and 115bps respectively. Today's $13B 20Y auction stronger than expected after last week's string of weak auctions. Latest Fed Beige Book said economy expanded slightly, while price increases were little changed since late February, but consumer spending reports were mixed. Reports Biden will propose a big hike in tariffs on China steel and aluminum.

US equities finished mostly lower in up-and-down Tuesday trading. S&P ended down for a third-straight session with equal-weight S&P a notable laggard to the official index. Tone continued to be driven by hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations alongside solid economic data and sticky inflation. Another busy day of Fedspeak with Powell noting recent data shows lack of further progress on inflation.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels. Some post-bell strength began reversing early in the session, and stocks came under pressure for much of the afternoon. March retail sales beat, while ex-autos and fuel and control group sales also ahead.

US equities were lower as the S&P 500 finished down for a second-straight week, while the Nasdaq capped off a third-straight weekly decline, and its fifth in the past six weeks. The biggest story of the week revolved around inflation data. Several pieces of the bullish arguments remain intact, particularly early earnings season takeaways that suggest a firmer macro backdrop and strong early beat rates.

US equities ended mostly higher in Thursday trading, just off best levels, after shaking off early-morning weakness. In-line core PPI print provided some relief following a third straight hotter core CPI reading that drove a meaningful – and further – hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations. Renewed momentum and growth outperformance is the other big story, with some likely help from the recent flurry of AI headlines and upbeat sell-side research.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, though off worst levels that followed this morning's CPI report, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 109bps, 95bps, and 84bps respectively. Risk off on hotter CPI prints, with both headline and core CPI increasing 0.40% m/m in March, ahead of expectations. Today's 10Y auction weaker than expected, following yesterday's sale of 3-year notes that also tailed. Crude hit session highs after report US and allies believe an Iran missile strike on Israel is imminent.

US equities ended mostly higher in Tuesday trading, losing early morning gains around midday before recovering some into the close. The market is in waiting mode for several potential catalysts later this week, particularly the March CPI on Wednesday. NFIB small business optimism declined to its lowest level in March since December 2012, marking the 27th consecutive month below the 50-year average, with inflation cited as biggest problem.

US equities ended narrowly mixed in Monday's trading session with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq hovering around unchanged though small caps outperformed. The NY Fed one-year inflation expectations were unchanged for third-straight month, though increased at the 3Y horizon. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee commented today that recent jobs data confirms that the economy is strong, and noted late last week that he sees continued high inflation in housing services as the biggest danger to the inflation picture.

Major US equity indices were down for the week, though helped by a solid post-NFP gain on Friday. The week's big theme was the notable backup in Treasury yields driven by some firmer economic data (particularly a strong March jobs report and a hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading). It was also another week overflowing with Fedspeak, again centered on an appearance by Chair Powell and again doing little to shift the broad narrative of a possible start to rate cuts at the June FOMC meeting.

US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, carrying some strength through midday before reversing in the afternoon. The market reverted to a risk-off atmosphere this afternoon, with some blame going to increasing Middle East tensions. Weekly initial claims rose faster than consensus, and the prior week’s was revised up, while continuing claims came in lighter than forecast.

US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, ending off best levels after some late-session volatility, with the Dow Jones closing down 11bps, while the S&P and Nasdaq closed +11bps and 23bps respectively. , ISM services printed at 51.4, below consensus 52.7. New-orders component pulled back and prices paid hit lowest level since March 2020. ADP private payrolls were up 184K in March, outstripping the 150K consensus, with continued strength in leisure/hospitality. Paramount was up on a report about exclusive deal talks with Skydance.

US equities closed down in Tuesday trading, remaining fairly rangebound for much of the session and ending not far from worst levels. Rate backup remains the big story, with the blame largely gone to the firmer ISM manufacturing print yesterday, though there is also some focus on supply, higher commodities prices, and deficit concerns. February’s JOLTS job openings was down slightly month over month but in line with consensus.

US equities closed mostly lower, though off worst levels, in fairly uneventful Monday trading. It’s been a very quiet session to start April and Q2, though there are a few moving pieces in view coming out of the long holiday weekend, including momentum, growth, and tech outperformance after lagging in March and last week as breadth improved. In macro news, ISM manufacturing unexpectedly moved into expansion, snapping a 16-month streak of contractionary readings in March.

US equities ended mostly higher this week with strong outperformance in the Russell 2000 and some minor weakness in the Nasdaq. The market navigated a shortened trading week deprived of any meaningful catalysts with most looking to PCE this Friday and Nonfarm payrolls next Friday. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat slightly with consumers noting they were confident inflation will continue to soften, and expect their financial situations to improve over the coming months.

US equities finished higher in uneventful Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 122bps, 86bps, and 51bps respectively. Nothing on the US economic calendar and big event was a well-received auction of $43B in 7Y notes. Spanish headline inflation accelerated in March. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki ramped up warning on potential yen intervention.

US equities finished down in Tuesday trading, selling off in the last half hour of the session after remaining positive but rangebound for most of the day. Thursday marks month- and quarter-end and pension fund rebalancing has been flagged as a potential overhang for equities. February durable-goods orders rose after two consecutive monthly declines; core orders beat though January revised lower.

US equities ended mostly lower in a quiet, rangebound Monday session with modest downside in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq after capping off the best weekly gain of the year on Friday. There was a bit of Fedspeak, though nothing shifted the narrative. February new home sales came in a bit weaker than consensus.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 posted the best weekly performance this year, underpinned by a big Treasury rally and dovish takeaways from this week's March FOMC meeting. This week's upside was primarily driven by the March FOMC meeting that included the dot plot holding projections for three rate cuts this year and Chair Powell downplaying recent hotter inflation prints. This week saw some solid economic data including March flash manufacturing PMI, which hit the highest level since Jun-22, though services PMI was a bit weaker than expected.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading. Dovish Fed takeaways continue to underpin risk sentiment, as takeaways are focused on unchanged median dot for three rate cuts in 2024 and Powell's comments suggesting recent inflation data has not changed the Fed's view on the broader disinflation trend. Initial jobless claims came in at 210K vs consensus for 215K and last week's 212K (revised from 209K).

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, rallying after today's FOMC meeting, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 103bps, 89bps, and 125bps respectively. Fed left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Statement reiterated Fed needs additional confidence inflation returning to target before easing. Median 2024 dot in updated SEP unchanged at three rate cuts. However, median dot in 2025 and 2026 each went up ~25 bp. Noted recent data suggest gradual, bumpy disinflation trend remains intact.

US equities ended higher Tuesday at best levels with the S&P locking in a new record closing high. Market processing developments out of NVDA GTC, with Street positive on Blackwell architecture but takeaways fairly technical in nature and noting no big surprises. US economic calendar quiet again today. February housing starts and building permits both beat, rebounding off weather-impacted January print.

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, though ended off session highs. The AI secular growth theme is the tailwind to start this week, with Google and Apple in talks for Gemini to power AI features on new iPhones, and NVIDIA’s GTC Conference kicking off today. March NAHB homebuilder sentiment rose for the fourth consecutive month to its highest in eight months.

US equities were lower for the week, with the Nasdaq posting its second consecutive weekly drop and the small-cap Russell saw its worst week since the opening of 2024. Treasuries were notably weaker, with yields for most maturities seeing a five-day run higher. There was a big focus on the week's data releases, primarily a hotter-than-expected reading for February core CPI. 

US equities ended lower Thursday, though off worst levels, following a mixed session for stocks on Wednesday. Another big rate backup is the overhang on sentiment, particularly as it comes from sticky inflation concerns rather than from a firmer growth backdrop. Headline and core PPI came in hotter than expected, while annualized PPI was at its hottest since September.

US equities ended mixed Wednesday, just off worst levels, with the Dow Jones finishing up 10bps while the S&P500, and Nasdaq closed down 19bps and 54bps respectively. Fairly quiet day from a macro perspective, with no big economic datapoints on the calendar today, attention turning to PPI, Retail Sales tomorrow. Corporate headlines included Dollar Tree Q4 miss and store closures, Pentagon scrapping plans to spend $2.5B on Intel defense grant, and the US House passing a bill that could lead to a force sale or ban of TikTok.

US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading as stocks ended near best levels and more than erased Monday weakness. Momentum factor rallied despite recent scrutiny surrounding stretched positioning/sentiment/valuation. Market shook off another hotter-than-expected core CPI print. Headline February CPI printed in line with consensus for a 0.4% monthly rise, but faster than January. Headline up 3.2% y/y. Core CPI a bit hotter than expected.

US equities ended mostly lower on Monday, off worst levels, in a quiet trading session. The market is playing the waiting game for the CPI report on Tuesday. In macro news, the New York Fed 1Y inflation expectations for February are unchanged m/m at 3%, though the expectations rose at the 3Y and 5Y horizons.

US equities were mostly lower this week with the Nasdaq and Dow lagging, though the Russell 2000 again outperformed. This week's focus was on nonfarm payrolls and Fed Chairman Powell's congressional testimony. Bulls would note employment data and revisions were dovish, while bears would point to select hawkish Fed-speak.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending just off best levels as stocks built on Wednesday's gains. The market is extending Wednesday's bounce into the NFP report tomorrow, while Powell's Congressional testimony mostly a non-event. In macro news, initial claims fell largely in line with expectations.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though ended off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 20bps, 51bps, and 58bps respectively. Powell reiterated likelihood of loosening later this year, though more confidence needed on sustained move towards 2% target. February ADP private payrolls slightly softer than expected. JOLTs job openings down in January from prior month to lowest since October, while quits rate down a tick. Fed's Beige Book also said economic activity increased slightly.

US equities ended lower on Tuesday, a bit off from worst levels. Market on the defensive ahead of Powell tomorrow and NFP on Friday. Tech/growth/momentum weakness the big story, though may be more a function of fatigue (positioning/technicals) rather than fundamentals. ISM services for February came in slightly below consensus, while new orders increased from January.

US equities ended lower Monday, losing strength in the last hour of trading. No big directional drivers in play ahead of Powell and payrolls later this week, as well as the CPI next week. The focus is on Powell's semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

The major averages were mostly higher this week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up for the seventh week in the past eight (and 16th week in the past 18). This week's January Core PCE was in line with expectations, removing an overhang of the Fed's preferred inflation measure coming in hotter than expected. Tech momentum also remained a tailwind amid more AI proliferation optimism.

US equities ended higher Thursday afternoon, near best levels. The market is shaking off this week's previously defensive tone after today's right-in-line January PCE price inflation report. Initial and continuing jobless claims printed a bit higher than consensus.

US equities ended lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 6bps, 17bps, and 55bps respectively. Very quiet session with nothing specific behind the pullback. First revision of Q4 GDP marked down to 3.2% pace; Personal consumption marked up to 3.0%; Q4 GDP price index marked up to 1.6%; and Q4 core PCE up to 2.1%. Busy in terms of Fedspeak but not much new, with governors reiterating patience, but cuts likely later this year.

US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday, off worst levels though trading fairly rangebound. Market still struggling for direction ahead of core PCE inflation on Thursday and ISM manufacturing on Friday. January durable goods down sharply on the headline (though likely impact from weak Boeing orders). Core capital-goods orders also a bit light. Elsewhere, February consumer confidence came in below consensus, and January was revised lower; labor-market differential also narrowed.

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels though downside modest. Nothing really incremental from a narrative perspective ahead of some more meaningful potential macro catalysts late in the week. In macro news, today's record $63B 2Y auction saw a slight tail, the weakest bid-to-cover since March 2023 while the $61B 5Y auction tailed by 0.8bp.

US equities were mostly higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up for the 15th time in the past 17 weeks. There were a number of moving pieces this week, though the key bullish narrative was AI optimism after Nvidia earnings. Fedspeak continued to lean hawkish, though officials including Governor Waller and New York's Williams continue to say they still expect cuts this year.

US equities ended higher and near best levels in Thursday trading, with S&P logging a new all-time high and the Nasdaq having its best session in more than a year. In macro news, initial jobless claims came in below consensus, the lowest since early January and continuing claims was also light of forecasts. Today’s risk-on session was driven by the latest bout of AI enthusiasm following another blowout quarter and guidance from NVIDIA, which finished up +15.3%.

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday afternoon trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 both finishing up 13bps while the Nasdaq closed down 32bps. Latest FOMC minutes noted most officials flagged the risks of cutting rates too early, though some policymakers pointed to downside risks of maintaining higher rates for too long. Fed’s Governor Bowman said time for lower rates is certainly not now, while Richmond's Barkin said question now is how long disinflation will take. Market now focused on nVidia earnings after the close.

US equities finished lower in fairly quiet Tuesday trading, though the equal-weight S&P held up better than the official index. Small-caps more than erased last week's gains. Today saw a lot of drag from NVDA ahead of its earnings, a dynamic that weighed on the broad semi space. Came after market leaned risk-off last week with the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints driving another hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations. Fairly quiet week ahead form a macro perspective though FOMC minutes are out on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday brings a flurry of Fedspeak.

US equities ended mostly higher this week with the Russell 2000 again outperforming the S&P despite over 4% drawdown on Tuesday following hotter CPI print. Treasuries were weaker with some curve flattening. Dollar index was slightly up the greenback having strong performance on the yen cross. This week's focus was on CPI and PPI readings coming in hotter than expected lending support for the "higher for longer" Fed rate cut narrative and prompting some risk-off sentiment.

US equities ended higher Thursday, just off best levels. The bounce following Tuesday's CPI drawdown has been chalked up to several dynamics, including the potential "January effect" on the print, somewhat dovish Fedspeak, a still favorable setup surrounding Fed pivot and resilient US growth backdrop, stable 2024 consensus earnings estimates amid heightened focus on operational efficiency, and an intact disinflation narrative. It's been a huge day of economic releases, including January retail sales, which dropped more than expected, and December’s was revised lower.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending at best levels in a rebound from Tuesday's sharp selloff, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 40bps, 96bps, and 130bps respectively. Annual PPI revisions saw December headline and core revised slightly lower. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said slightly higher inflation over coming months still consistent with path back to 2% target.

US equities under pressure in Tuesday trading, though stocks ended well off worst levels. Small-caps underperformed with Russell 2000 posting worst session since Jun-22. Hotter-than-expected January CPI drove risk off. Some focus on disappointing earnings, particularly in tech and industrial, though high bar seems to be an issue for former. Headline CPI increased 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, ahead of the 0.2%/2.9% consensus.

US equities were mixed in Monday trading with the S&P and Nasdaq ending near worst levels. Recent sell-side research and financial press headlines have focused on a stronger US growth backdrop, among other factors. January NY Fed one-year inflation expectations remain unchanged from December, though still the lowest since November 2020, while three-year expectations are the lowest since March 2020.

The S&P 500 posted another record close this week, finishing above 5000 for the first time on Friday. This week's CPI revisions were little changed, as expected. This week also saw some favorable pieces in the disinflation traction narrative, including the Manheim Used Vehicle Index down the most y/y since July.

US equities finished higher in Thursday afternoon trading, near best levels though the S&P again failed to end above 5000. Initial and continuing claims both came in below consensus despite the theme of increasing layoff announcements. No big directional drivers in play this morning, but another barrage of earnings is dominating the headlines.

US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, ending just a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 40bps, 82bps, and 95bps respectively. No meaningful directional impulses for the market, and another quiet day on the US economic calendar ahead of CPI annual revisions on Friday. Today's record $42B 10Y auction was well received. Big earnings day today, with another blizzard of releases on deck for tomorrow.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading following Monday's lower finish, staging a bit of a rally into the close after spending much of the session little changed. Rate stabilization the big focus today following latest bout of Fed pivot repricing on the back of payrolls, Powell, and ISM services. No meaningful spillover for risk assets from big China bounce, though not surprising given longstanding stimulus skepticism. Today's 3Y note auction was well received, firming Treasuries and helping reverse some recent weakness.

US equities ended lower today, a bit off best levels, in a fairly uneventful Monday trading session. The market is in good news is bad news mode with the pullback likely exacerbated by widely discussed stretched valuation, sentiment and positioning metrics. January ISM services topped consensus with new orders strengthening, though there was a notable uptick in prices paid, its highest since February 2023. Today's market weakness was tabbed to Fed pivot repricing, even though Powell's comments on 60 Minutes were in line with last week's post-FOMC press conference.

US equities ended the week mostly higher, shaking off a big Wednesday slide. Treasuries were mostly firmer with the curve flattening despite Friday's rate backup. The Q4 earnings season was also a major focus this week, with five of the Magnificent Seven names reporting. It was a big week of labor-market data, with slower private payrolls growth from Wednesday's ADP release and an above-consensus reading for December job openings leading into a much hotter-than-expected January nonfarm payrolls release. 

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. Markets are trying to bounce following several headwinds on Wednesday, including a high bar for big tech earnings, renewed regional bank concerns, and Powell's pushback against March rate cut expectations. In macro news, January’s ISM Manufacturing beat with new orders back in expansion, though the employment index fell, and prices paid higher.

US equities ended lower Wednesday at worst levels after the latest FOMC announcement came in more hawkish than anticipated, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 82bps, 161bps, and 223bps respectively. Post-earnings weakness in big tech the big story. FOMC statement removed tightening bias, as was widely expected, and noted employment and inflation moving into better balance. January ADP private payrolls missed. ECI was a bit weaker than consensus as well.

US equities ended mostly lower Tuesday after finishing higher on Monday. Market still largely in waiting mode ahead of a flurry of meaningful macro and micro events this week, including big tech earnings, FOMC announcement, refunding details, ISM manufacturing and employment data. Busy on the US economic calendar with more support for the macro resilience theme. December JOLTS job openings well ahead of estimates, coming in at highest since September while November revised up.

US equities ended higher Monday at session highs after a fairly directionless morning. Bullish hopes continue to be underpinned by the ongoing flow of goldilocks economic data feeding soft- to no-landing forecasts, with a focus on hopes for nearer-term rate cuts. Stocks and Treasuries hit session highs after the US Treasury released their quarterly borrowing estimates. A number of other big catalysts are expected this week, including the January FOMC meeting on Wednesday, and several employment reports culminating with January’s nonfarm payrolls Friday morning.

US equities were higher this week with small caps pulling ahead. Data releases largely supported the soft-landing narrative coupled with news of Chinese stock market stimulus. PCE inflation was one of the more anticipated stories this week, with data showing that the rate of price increases slowed as 2023 came to a close.

US equities finished higher in Thursday’s trading, ending back near session highs, with the S&P and Nasdaq logging their sixth straight session of gains. Today’s main themes include soft- to no-landing support from macro data, a lower rate backdrop, mixed earnings, continued China bounce, FOMC and QRA waiting games and breadth scrutiny. Q4 GDP grew at an annualized 3.3% pace, well ahead of the Street’s 2% expectation.

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 26bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 8bps, and 36bps respectively. January flash manufacturing PMI came in well ahead of consensus, back in expansion and highest since Oct-22, though manufacturing cost inflation fastest since Apr-23. Flash services PMI also beat, though saw slowest rise in output charges since Jun-20. Today's weak 5Y Treasury auction sparked some caution with long-end yields continuing their upswing from year-end lows.

US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading, with S&P ending near best levels. Big tech stocks were broadly higher. There were no notable directional drivers in play as market continued to wait for a ramp in earnings activity and further signs of disinflation traction with core PCE inflation at the end of the week. Big developments today revolved around mixed earnings, mixed rates, another batch of soft regional manufacturing data, and China stimulus speculation.

US equities ended higher today in a fairly quiet trading period with the S&P 500 locking in a second-straight record close. The Fed and economic calendars are quieter this week, though the market does get two looks at core PCE inflation trends with the first estimate for Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the personal income and spending report for December on Friday. Earnings will ramp up with 75 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. In macro headlines, the market continues to deal with a ton of moving pieces from high-profile themes.

US equities were mostly higher for the holiday-shortened week, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq gaining but small-caps continuing to struggle in 2024 (Russell now down four consecutive weeks). The week's big theme was the waning of expectations for the Fed to begin its rate cuts in March in the face of both stronger economic data and some pushback in the Fedspeak. The week also saw a big positive performance contribution from tech amid some positive earnings takeaways and ongoing AI optimism.

US equities ended higher Thursday, rallying to best levels after some midday weakness. The Dow up +0.54%, S&P 500 up +0.88%, Nasdaq up +1.35%, and the Russell 2000 down (0.55%). Bounce momentum was helped by some favorable technical and mechanical dynamics, positive semi space takeaways from Taiwan Semiconductor results and guidance, Apple’s upgrade, and a reversal in beleaguered Greater China bourses and rate stabilization. The Philly Fed Index missed, but better m/m, easing some concerns from Tuesday's big Empire State Index miss that was one of the lowest in series history. 

US equities ended lower Wednesday with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 25bps, 56bps, and 59bps respectively. December retail sales came in stronger than expected. January NAHB housing market index beat and tied for highest since August, citing big decline in mortgage rates since October. Business inventories were in line. The Latest Fed Beige Book said majority of districts saw little or no change in economic activity, while most saw steady or falling input prices and nearly all saw decreased manufacturing activity.

US equities ended lower Tuesday, off worst levels. Follows a mostly higher finish for stocks last week. More defensive tone seems to be a function of tighter financial conditions (higher yields, stronger dollar) stemming from latest thoughts global markets may be too aggressive when it comes to 2024 easing expectations. Fed Governor Waller said Fed within striking distance of inflation target and cautioned against overtightening. 

US equities were higher this week with leadership from megacap tech. This week's upside was driven by factors including soft landing momentum and disinflation signals, optimism around the coming earnings season, a weaker dollar, and some strategists playing down extended positioning. Key economic data this week included December CPI, which came in at 0.3% m/m, hotter than 0.2% consensus, while core CPI of 0.3% was in line.

US equities ended mixed, but well-off worst levels, in a Thursday session that processed a largely in-line December CPI report. Major indices still on track for solid weekly gains. Headline December CPI came in hotter than expected, though core CPI printed in line. Season expected to be a big catalyst over next few weeks with nearly 75% of S&P 500 market cap out by week-ended 9-Feb.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 45bps, 57bps, and 75bps respectively. NY Fed President Williams said that restrictive policy would likely need to continue for some time to fully achieve the Fed's inflation target and not close to the point where it would slow and stop its runoff of the balance sheet. Boeing’s CEO said in a company meeting it needs to acknowledge its mistake. HP Enterprise confirmed plans to acquire Juniper Networks in a $14B deal.

US equities closed mostly lower in Tuesday trading, though off worst levels from the morning. NFIB small business optimism index saw sequential improvement in December but marked 24th straight month below 50-year average. The Fed's Bowman said it could eventually become appropriate to lower rates if inflation continues to fall closer to 2%, but stressed we are not there yet.  

US equities finished higher in Monday trading. The Fed was in focus with Dallas Fed President Logan suggesting there may be a case to slow the pace of the balance sheet runoff. The NY Fed survey showed consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations are now at their lowest level since January 2021.

US equities were lower in the first week of the new year, with the S&P and Nasdaq declining after nine straight weeks of gains. While there was not a single catalyst, analysts continued to flag overbought conditions and stretched positioning after a strong Q4 capped 2023, as well as pointing to last year's significant gains among many megacap tech stocks. December nonfarm payrolls printed even higher than some of the whisper numbers, though the previous two months were revised lower (with ten of the past 11 monthly reports ultimately being revised down).

US equities ended mostly lower Thursday, near worst levels. S&P 500 and Nasdaq still on pace to break nine-straight weekly gains. Early 2024 focus has been on the more defensive tone in the market. Still largely chalked up to technical factors like overbought conditions and stretched positioning with metrics back near late-July levels. Labor-market data was in focus today. December ADP private payrolls rose 164K vs the 125K consensus, with strength still focused in service industries.

US equities finished lower Wednesday, near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 76bps, 80bps, and 118bps respectively. December ISM manufacturing a bit better than consensus, still in contraction, with a drop in the prices-paid component. November JOLTS job openings came in slightly below market expectations. FOMC minutes showed participants viewing rates likely at or near their peak, and lower rates by year's end could be appropriate.

US equities finished the first trading day of the year mostly lower, though ending off worst levels. The Dow finished 0.07% higher while the S&P and Nasdaq finished down 0.57% and 1.63%, respectively, which comes after both the S&P and Nasdaq finished higher for a ninth straight week last week. In today’s session, the magnificent Seven names came up for sale after an Apple downgrade by Barclays. Additionally, semis, growth software, road and rail, exchanges, asset managers, building products, homebuilders, hotels, and cruise lines were some of the other laggards. Meanwhile, banks, insurers, pharma and biotech, managed care, hospitals, food, grocers, energy, telecom, fertilizers, and casinos fared better. Treasuries were weaker with some curve flattening while the dollar index was up 0.8% on broad-based strength. Gold ended up 0.1% and bitcoin futures were up 6.8%, though they came down from best levels after topping $45K for first time in nearly two years and providing a boost for crypto-leveraged equities. Finally, WTI crude settled down 1.8%, reversing earlier gains.For macroeconomic news, final December manufacturing PMI marked down as new orders remained weak and selling prices remained at their fastest pace since April. Meanwhile, construction spending for November was in line. That said, it will be a busier data week to come, with ISM manufacturing, JOLTS, and FOMC minutes out tomorrow and then the employment report and ISM services on Friday.

US equities finished mostly higher on Friday, though off best levels, with the S&P and Nasdaq both locking in an eighth-straight session gain. Meanwhile, the Dow slipped slightly by 0.05%. Small-caps were among the standouts again, and some other outperformers included outsourcing and consulting, biotech, and precious metals miners. Underperformers included apparel, China tech, credit cards, and airlines. Treasuries finished narrowly mixed with some curve steepening while the dollar index finished down 0.1%. Gold ended up 0.9% and bitcoin futures were little changed. Lastly, WTI crude settled down 0.4%.It was a busy data for macroeconomic data. November headline PCE price index fell 0.3pp to a 0.1% contraction m/m, softer than consensus for 0.0%. Meanwhile, annualized PCE of 2.6% was also down 0.4pp from last month and softer than the 2.8% consensus, its lowest print since February of 2021. Core PCE of 0.1% was also softer than the 0.2% consensus. Meanwhile, annualized core PCE was down 0.2pp to 3.2%, beating the 3.4% consensus. Besides the macro data, it was quiet from a corporate news perspective. Looking ahead, FactSet will pause publication of the Evening Market Recap for the remainder of the year and resume coverage on January 2nd. For the first week of the new year, some areas of focus include ISM manufacturing on 3-Jan and NFP on 5-Jan. Happy Holidays!

US equities ended higher on Thursday, near best levels. Comes after stocks came under notable pressure on Wednesday in a late-day selloff; S&P suffered biggest pullback since September and DJIA and Nasdaq both snapped nine-day winning streaks. Market bounced after a largely unexplained late-day selloff on Wednesday. Some talk of pressure from zero-day options trades and geopolitical tensions also flagged as an excuse, though bulk of the focus has been on overbought conditions. Initial jobless claims rose slightly w/w but came in below consensus. Continuing claims largely in line, coming off mid-November's peak levels. 

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 127bps, 147bps, and 150bps respectively. Market sold off sharply in the afternoon though no obvious catalyst. December Consumer Confidence beat, highest since July. November existing home sales posted a surprise increase. Atlanta's Fed President Harker said rate cuts won't happen right away, though also said there's no need to raise rates anymore.

US equities ended higher today, near best levels and adding to Monday’s gains, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.68%, 0.59%, and 0.66%, respectively. The Magnificent Seven ended mostly higher, and marine transport, auto parts, cruiselines, casinos, apparel & accessories, machinery, credit cards, banks, pharma, industrial metals & precious metals were among the outperformers. There was not a lot of outright decliners, though managed care, waste, networking and communications, HPCs, grocers, and food were the relative laggards. Treasuries were stronger across the curve, though off best levels, after yields backed up on Monday. The dollar index was down 0.4%, though yen weakness was the big story in FX following the BoJ meeting. Gold finished up 0.6 along with bitcoin futures. Lastly, WTI crude settled up 1.5% after gaining nearly 1.5% on Monday as geopolitical challenges to tanker travel remain in focus. There were few meaningful directional drivers in today’s very quiet session, though there was some notable Fedspeak, which did not echo the more hawkish messaging from Williams last Friday.

US equities ended mostly higher in fairly quiet Monday trading, though off best levels. The S&P 500 is now ~ 1.2% from its record close in Dec-21. The Dovish Fed pivot remains a key area of focus heading into year-end, even with some of the post-FOMC pushback from Fed officials. Fed's Mester said that the market has jumped a little bit ahead and that the Fed is not likely to normalize rates quickly.

US equities were higher in a broadly positive week driven by dovish takeaways from Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The Fed's move came as economic data continued to cooperate with soft-/no-landing hopes. November CPI came in a bit higher than consensus on the headline (with shelter and used-car inflation among the key components), though the release was judged to be largely in line with expectations.

US equities ended higher Thursday, though off best levels. Today's modest rally extended weekly gains, with S&P, Nasdaq now up 3%+ for the week, small-cap Russell 2000 up over 7%. Today saw sizable cyclicals/value outperformance vs growth, while equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed cap weighted index by most since Jun-23. Dovish Fed takeaways continue to reverberate, particularly in combination with the soft-landing narrative, leaving path of least resistance for risk assets up to the upside.

US equities closed higher in Wednesday trading, not far from best levels, following the FOMC decision, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 140bps, 137bps, and 138bps respectively. Fed left rates unchanged for a third straight meeting. Dot plot takeaways leaned dovish as median projection for 2024 fell 50bp to 4.60% implying 75bp worth of easing. No pushback from Powell during press conference regarding more aggressive market pricing for rate cuts.

US equities closed mostly higher in Tuesday trading, ending a bit off best levels. The Market is focused on some of the last key events for 2023, particularly today's CPI report and tomorrow's Fed decision and updated dot plot. Core CPI was in line with expectations for November, increasing 0.3% m/m and 4.0% y/y.

US equities finished higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting fresh YTD closing highs after capping a sixth straight week of gains on Friday. There was not much on today's calendar but several key catalysts on tap this week before the market eases into year-end, particularly tomorrow's November CPI report and Wednesday's FOMC meeting (bringing updated economic projections and a new dot plot). The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed the lowest 1Y inflation expectations since Apr-21.   

US equities were mixed this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq each extending their streak of weekly gains to six; both indices set fresh YTD closing highs on Friday. The Magnificent Seven names were mostly higher this week. Treasuries were mostly weaker with the curve flattening. November nonfarm payrolls rose by 199K, with analysts noting job growth even beyond the impact of workers coming off recent strikes.

US equities ended higher Thursday following an uneventful trading session. Comes after stocks finished down on Wednesday, ending near worst levels. Quiet session without a lot of catalysts in focus. Some early attention on hawkish BoJ headlines, though policy normalization dynamic widely understood. Initial jobless claims were little changed w/w while continuing claims unexpectedly dropped from prior week's two-year high.

US equities ended lower in Wednesday trading, near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 19bps, 39bps, and 58bps respectively. Labor market in focus again on the economic calendar with ADP private payrolls up 103K in November, below the 120K consensus. Market now has employment report on Friday and CPI next Tuesday as the key remaining pieces of data before the FOMC decision and updated dot plot on Wednesday. McDonald’s provided new long-term targets at its investor day.

US equities ended mostly lower on Tuesday for the second consecutive session, though the major indexes ended mixed with the Dow and S&P ending down 0.22% and 0.06%, respectively, and the Nasdaq ending up 0.31%. Although there was some drag from the Magnificent Seven yesterday, big tech was largely higher today with Apple (AAPL) faring well after a positive Foxconn update. However, market breadth was negative and there was some notable weakness from industrial metals, media, HPCs, department stores, energy, hotels, casinos, paper and packaging, auto suppliers, transports, regional banks, semis, IT equipment and China tech. Thus, there were not many pockets of outright strength, though refiners, managed care, P&C insurers, credit cards, pharma and biotech, and telecom did hold up better. Treasuries were firmer and near best levels after today's data, with the curve flattening after yields backed up on Monday and with 30Y yield near 4.30%, its lowest since September. The dollar was firmer on the major crosses, and Aussie weakness was the big story in FX following the RBA announcements. Gold finished down 0.3% while bitcoin futures were up 4.8% after a big rally on Monday. WTI crude settled down 1.0% in very choppy trading. The big story today was renewed decline in yields on dovish labor market data. That said, there was not a meaningful directional driver for stocks. Looking ahead, it seems to be a waiting game for NFP on Friday, and then CPI and FOMC next week.

US equities ended mostly lower Monday as the major averages held in a fairly narrow range throughout the session. It was a fairly quiet session with bigger catalysts coming as the week progresses. Final October factory orders were a bit weaker than consensus.

US equities finished mostly higher in Thursday afternoon trading. Several moving pieces today, including more signs of disinflation, two-year high in continuing claims, upside surprise in regional manufacturing PMI, mixed earnings, status-quo Fedspeak (vs Waller's dovishness earlier this week), oil volatility and month-end dynamics. Headline PCE inflation a bit softer than expected in October while core PCE inflation in line.

US equities finished mixed, ending near worst levels in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing up 4bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished down 9bps and 16bps respectively. Lower yield backdrop remained the big story, and better software earnings were another bright spot. Fed's latest Beige Book reported economic activity declining in six of 12 Fed districts. Latest headlines suggesting Saudis pushing an output cut for tomorrow's OPEC+ meeting.

US equities finished slightly higher overall in quiet Tuesday trading, though ending off best levels from midday, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.24%, 0.10%, and 0.29%, respectively. The magnificent 7 names were mostly higher with Tesla (TSLA) being a standout. Other outperformers included retail and apparel, credit cards, rails, commodity chemicals, beverages, and payments. Meanwhile, media, P&C insurers, pharma, MedTech, machinery, restaurants, and homebuilders were some of the laggards. Treasuries were firmer, particularly at the short end of the curve, with the 2Y yield near its lowest point since August. The dollar was weaker on the major crosses while Gold finished up 1.4%. Bitcoin futures were up 4.4% and WTI crude settled up 2.1%. Overall, the market experienced some push and pull from an underwhelming Treasury auction and from dovish Fedspeak today. The market still seems to be dealing with a catalyst vacuum ahead of November employment data on December 8th, CPI on December 12th, and the FOMC decision (and updated dot plot) on the 13th.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels after oscillating within a fairly narrow band. There was a notable miss from October new home sales, and September's big gain was revised lower. Today's 2Y auction tailed around 1bp, the first tail since July, though the 5Y auction was stronger.

US equities finished lower in very quiet, rangebound Tuesday trading. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished down 0.18%, 0.20%, and 0.59%, respectively. Today's session came after a higher finish on Monday that saw the S&P reach its highest level since August. Big tech was mixed, while retailers were generally down amid today's welter of earnings. Semis, airlines, banks, autos, media, REITs, and homebuilders were some of the other laggards. Meanwhile, MedTech, life sciences, P&C insurers, food and beverage, managed care, A&D, and telecoms held up better. Treasuries were mostly unchanged, though a bit firmer with modest gains in belly of the curve after some positive sentiment on Monday surrounding the 20-year auction. The dollar index was up 0.2% while gold finished up 1.1%. Bitcoin futures were off 1.4%, and WTI crude settled down 0.1% after gaining nearly 2.5% on Monday. Overall, there were no big directional drivers in play today. The lower rate backdrop on disinflation and peak Fed traction are still a tailwind for risk sentiment, along with lingering consumer resilience, recent earnings inflection, margin expansion, and seasonality. Another major talking point were the November FOMC minutes, which noted that the Fed is in a position to proceed carefully. All officials saw rates remaining restrictive for some time, fitting with the higher for longer messaging, though that has come under some scrutiny following recent inflation, labor market data and corporate updates.

US equities closed higher in very quiet Monday trading, adding to good gains from last week. Richmond Fed's Barkin said that there may still be work to do on inflation, which has been "stubborn." MSFT was higher amid news that former OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will join the company to lead a new research team.Note: The Podcast will not be published on 22-24 November due to the holiday. The comment will resume on 27-November.

US equities rallied this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both capped off a third-straight week of gains, while the small-cap Russell 2000 posted its second-best weekly performance of the year. Tuesday's October CPI declined on an annualized basis for the first time in four months. Beyond the cooler October CPI and PPI prints, data this week included more evidence of a cooling labor market as initial jobless claims missed and was the highest since 18-Aug, while continuing claims also missed and hit the highest level since Nov-21.

US equities were mixed in very quiet Thursday trading. Very quiet session as market continued to digest a flurry of developments over last few days. Big debate right now revolves around sustainability of the disinflation traction and soft-landing narrative tailwinds for stocks and bonds. Initial claims and continuing claims both higher than expected, with latter printing at worst level in two years. Import and export prices both declined more than expected in October.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, though ended off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 47bps, 16bps, and 7bps respectively. October retail sales fell for the first time since March, though decline was smaller than expected. October PPI posted a surprise contraction. US House passed a stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown. President Biden and China's XI began their meeting in San Francisco.

US equities finished notably higher in Tuesday trading, ending a bit off best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 1.43%, 1.91%, and 2.37%, respectively. Additionally, the Russell had its best session in more than a year, ending up 5.44%. Big Tech was stronger across the board, and REITs, utilities, autos, retail, homebuilders, airlines, banks, and asset managers were among the other outperformers. There were not a lot of decliners, but energy, managed care, pharma, healthcare distributors, P&C insurers, and defense were among the relative laggards. Treasuries were notably firmer across the curve with 10Y yield below 4.5% and 30Y approaching 4.6%. The dollar was down sharply on the major crosses, particularly vs the euro and sterling. Gold ended up 0.8% while Bitcoin futures down finished 4.1%, adding to a 1.5% pullback in the prior session. Finally, WTI crude settled unchanged after three-straight gains. The big macro news for today was that the October CPI report came in cooler than expected across the board, with monthly and annualized headline and core CPI prints below consensus. The soft October CPI report drove the big rally in stocks and rates, with momentum seemingly exacerbated by widely discussed positioning dynamics. Fed sentiment also expected to be impacted by retail sales tomorrow.

US equities finished narrowly mixed in very quiet Monday trading. There were not a lot of catalysts today and investors continue to weigh well-worn themes, though all come with caveats. Today, latest NY Fed consumer survey showed a slight downtick in inflation expectations and more optimistic economic outlook.

US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq adding to last week's big rally (while the small-cap Russell notched its 12th decline of the past 15 weeks). Stocks added on to the prior week's big gains despite a lack of big stimuli and amid a decelerating Q3 earnings season. Thursday was the only session this week that saw the S&P move lower, with investors that day reacting negatively to some hawkish-leaning commentary from Fed Chair Powell and notably weak demand for a $24B auction of 30-year Treasury bonds.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading, ending worst levels after Chair Powell comments and a weak 30Y auction brought rates overhang back into play. Higher-for-longer Fed and another backup in yields the big stories in today's trading.  All sectors lower. Initial claims rose in the latest week, with the prior week revised a bit higher; continuing claims rose again. 

US equities finished narrowly mixed in very uneventful Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones ending down 12bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 10bps and 8bps respectively. Today's $40B 10-year note auction saw some mild demand weakness after yesterday's well-received 3Y auction. Overseas, an ECB survey revealed a pickup in consumer inflation expectations despite the disinflation trend, as well as heightened uncertainty surrounding the macro outlook.

US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though ended a bit off best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.17%, 0.28%, and 0.90%, respectively. Software, semis, OTAs, telecom and most big tech beat the tape. Energy was the worst performer on crude weakness. Materials were also under pressure on fairly broad-based weakness. Machinery, multis, rails, parcels and logistics, regional banks, insurance, autos, casinos, and department stores were among the other underperformers. Treasuries were firmer with curve flattening following some pressure on Monday after a big rally in the prior week, with corporate supply mentioned as another overhang. The dollar index was up 0.3% with Aussie weakness being the big FX story after the RBA decision for a dovish hike. Gold finished down 0.8% while bitcoin futures were up 2.5%. WTI crude ended down 4.3%, below $80/barrel and its lowest settlement since July. That said, earnings activity still fairly elevated, though not many high-profile reporters are left. Q4 beat rates are above the one-year average, though Q4 has seen outsized cuts. Overall, there is a big debate right now about whether last week's outsized equity bounce and rate rally have more room to run.

US equities mostly higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, ending a bit off best levels. There has been nothing really incremental from a narrative perspective over the last few days. There was not much new from the Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS), which said demand for commercial and industrial loans were weaker over Q3, while banks tightened standards for both residential and CRE loans.

US equities finished the week notably higher amid a broad risk-on atmosphere, with the major indices gaining each day. There was a lot of economic data to process this week, particularly softer-than-expected headline growth from the October nonfarm payrolls report (that also saw September's blowout result revised lower). November's FOMC meeting offered little in the way of surprises.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. Markets saw a solid, broad-based rally on the back of improved risk sentiment, with myriad excuses for the bounce. Rate reprieve seems to be the most powerful factor. Peak Fed traction a driver of rate stabilization and also has positive signaling effects for equities. Street more positive on latest batch of earnings than recent results, offsetting some of the concerns around underwhelming earnings guidance and some incrementally cautious commentary on the consumer.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 67bps, 105bps, and 164bps respectively. November FOMC meeting held rates steady, as widely expected. The Treasury refunding announcement seemingly removed a big overhang on bonds, while rate stabilization also a function of softer ADP private payrolls and ISM manufacturing miss. Overseas, Bank of Japan came in with an unscheduled JGB purchase.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up +0.38%, +0.65%, and +0.48%, respectively. That said, major indices still closed solidly down for the month of October. Networking/communications, homebuilders, OEMs, MedTech, managed care, steel, A&D, building materials, and semis were among today's best performers. Big tech was also mostly higher. Ag machinery, large-cap pharma, airlines, energy, fertilizers, and China tech were among the laggards. Treasuries ended weaker with the curve steepening, adding to Monday's move. The dollar was better on the major crosses, with yen weakness today's big story in FX. Gold finished down 0.6%, ending back below $2K/oz., while bitcoin futures were up 0.1%. WTI crude finished down 1.6% after losing nearly 4% on Monday.It was busy on the economics calendar today. October Consumer Confidence came in at 102.6, beating consensus but down from September’s upwardly revised 104.3 for the third straight month of decline. Present situation dropped to 143.1 from prior 146.2, while Expectations component slipped to 75.6 from September's 76.4. One-year inflation expectations rose 0.2 points to 5.9%. Some of today’s other data included Q3 Employment Cost Index, showing employment and wages both slightly higher than expected. Lastly, both August FHFA house price index and S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index grew m/m while October Chicago PMI was little changed m/m. There were no big directional drivers in play as the market waits for the Fed rate decision and Treasury refunding details tomorrow.

US equities closed higher in Monday trading, ending just shy of best levels. Stocks hit best levels after Treasury quarterly borrowing estimates came in lower than feared. The Israeli conflict remained largely contained over the weekend and into Monday afternoon, although some recent events show tensions remain strained.  

US equities were lower this week as the S&P 500 shed more than 2% for the week for a second-straight week and finished the week at the lowest levels since April. Treasuries yields fell on the week, though not before the 10Y yield on Monday rose above 5% for the first time since 2007, while the 2Y/10Y spread at one point fell to around -15 bp, the narrowest since Jul-22. Stocks were also hit this week by underwhelming earnings and guidance takeaways.

US equities were mostly lower in Thursday trading, ending a bit off worst levels. Today's weakness came extended Wednesday selloff, while S&P 500 posted for seventh decline in past eight sessions. Risk off remained the theme with the usual suspects in focus. Earnings continue to be flagged as an overhang on sentiment. While key S&P 500 earnings metrics for Q3 have improved in recent days and are back above their four-quarter averages, there has also been a ramp in scrutiny surrounding the magnitude of the expected rebound in Q4 and 2024.

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 32bps, 143bps, and 243bps respectively. Earnings in focus with mixed results out of the big tech space, and the other big story today was the renewed bond yield backup following Monday's reprieve. September new home sales came in well ahead of consensus, and reports that the UAW is close to an agreement with Ford.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, though a bit off best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.62%, 0.73%, and 0.93%, respectively. Big tech was largely higher, with Multis, A&D, beverages, chemicals, utilities, and managed care among the outperformers. There were not a lot of groups in the red, but MedTech, oil services, credit cards, drug stores, OEMs, fertilizer, homebuilders, airlines, and regional banks were among the relative laggards. Treasuries ended mixed with some curve flattening; though there was not much change after today's in-line 2Y auction. Overseas, there were some China policy support headlines, with Beijing set to approve substantial sovereign debt issuance to spur infrastructure spending. That said, tensions in the Middle East continue to dominate the headlines. There were many big firms that reported earnings today, including Coca-Cola, Verizon, GE, Spotify, and even more after the close, including Google, Microsoft, and Visa.

US equities finished mostly lower in Monday trading, though downside fairly limited. After flirting with the level late last week, 10-year yields are above 5% for first time since 2007. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions continue to dominate the headlines.

US equities were lower this week amid a still-unsettled geopolitical situation, another run-up in Treasury yields, and some mixed takeaways from the early rounds of Q3 earnings reports. Treasuries were weaker again, with the 30Y yield moving firmly above 5% and the 10Y touching that level before retreating. September retail sales coming in well ahead of consensus, with control-group sales also handily beating forecasts. And labor-market strength continues to be reflected in light jobless claims data, which this week printed back below 200K.

US equities finished lower in very choppy Thursday trading, ending not far from worst levels. Major indices deepened WTD declines. Powell echoed recent Fedspeak about tightening financial conditions potentially having implications for path of monetary policy. Most big tech+ names beat the tape. Laggards included EVs, auto parts, pharma, biotech, semicap equipment, insurance, homebuilders, and cable. Streaming, telecom, rails, energy, hospitals, software, restaurants, beverages were among the stronger groups. 

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 98bps, 134bps, and 162bps respectively. September housing starts came in a bit light, while August was revised lower, building permits were ahead of consensus, and the ABI fell further into contraction in September. Latest Beige Book said little to no change in economic activity since the September report.

US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading with the major indices pulling back from best levels near midday. The Dow finished up 0.04% while the S&P and Nasdaq finished down (0.01%) and (0.25%), respectively. Pharma and biotech, managed care, defense, exchanges, networking and communications, casinos, HPCs, and China tech were some of the major weak spots. Energy, banks, P&C insurers, asset managers, apparel, food, and fertilizers were some of the stronger sectors. Overall, the good-news-is-bad-news theme continued to be in focus with another bout of upward pressure on rates following today's stronger retail sales data. In other news, the semi space was weak following the confirmation of additional restrictions on US exports to China. Earnings have been still surprising to the upside despite takeaways being mixed, but the bar is now higher and it is still very early in the Q3 reporting season.

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. There was no real change in market narrative, though stocks were rallying despite some renewed upward pressure on yields. Empire manufacturing was weaker than expected in October, slipping back into contraction.

US equities were narrowly mixed this week with the S&P 500 a bit higher but Nasdaq slightly lower. The S&P 500 finished higher for a second-straight week though Nasdaq was slightly lower, breaking two-straight weekly gains. September headline CPI was hotter than expected, though core CPI was in line and the lowest on an annualized basis in two years.  

US equities were lower in Thursday trading, though ended off worst levels. Today's weakness broke four-straight gains for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, though the averages still on pace for weekly gains. Despite this week's geopolitical volatility, market's focus remains squarely on rates. Headline September CPI a bit hotter than consensus, with shelter costs a big driver. 

US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading, ending near best levels, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both capped fourth-straight gains. Some headlines about escalating conflict in Israel's north added to volatility around the still-evolving conflict in the Middle East, though the market has mostly shaken off geopolitical concerns and returned to focus on rates. September headline and core PPI was hotter than expected, annualized the highest since April.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, though ended off best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.40%, 0.52%, and 0.58%, respectively. Today's strength extended Monday’s rally after markets shook off some early geopolitics-induced weakness. Airlines, banks, beverages, credit cards, chemicals, and homebuilders were among the outperformers. Big tech was mixed, while energy, MCOs, REITs, exchanges, insurance, food, and software were among the relative laggards. In all, today's upside can be tabbed to factors including Treasury strength and oil stabilization. While some of Treasury rally tabbed to flight-to-safety move amid geopolitical uncertainty given the ongoing conflict in Israel, recent dovish Fedspeak from Jefferson and Logan acknowledging tightening conditions from a higher-rate backdrop could warrant more caution on possible rate hikes. That said, Atlanta Fed's Bostic was the latest to say no further rate hikes are needed. Overseas, there was some positive takes on reports that China is planning a new $140B stimulus round with spending on infrastructure projects. The market awaits more macro data this week and the beginning of earnings season on Friday.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 59bps, 63bps, and 39bps respectively as the markets reversed the morning's risk-off weakness in the wake of the weekend's Israel attacks that have resulted in 1,000 dead and dozens of hostages being held. Recent Fedspeak mixed on whether financial conditions have tightened enough or if further hikes may be required. Busy week ahead, with September CPI, PPI, and bank earnings kicking off Friday.

Major US equity indices were mixed this week. In the wake of Friday's hotter-than-expected jobs report, the 30Y bond crested 5% for the first time since 2007 and the yield on the 10Y note hit a fresh post-2006 high. There was a big beat for Friday's September nonfarm payrolls report (and upward revisions for the prior two months), which followed a soft read for ADP private payrolls and a sharp increase in job openings from Tuesday's August JOLTS report.

US equities were slightly lower in uneventful Thursday trading, though ended a bit off best levels. Nascent rate stabilization didn't provide much meaningful cushion for stocks ahead of NFP tomorrow. Focus remains on the velocity and magnitude of recent surge in long-term yields. Initial claims came in at 207K, up slightly for the week but below consensus and still signaling labor market tightness. 

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 39bps, 81bps, and 135bps respectively. Today's batch of economic data showed some weakening labor-market trends with softer ADP private payrolls and a decline in the ISM services employment component. Lot of headline focus on yesterday's vote to oust Kevin McCarthy from speakership in the House and how the disruption will impact government-funding discussions in the runup to the November 17th expiration of the stopgap spending bill.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, not far from worst levels, after coming under notable pressure amid a sharp move higher in Treasury yields. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished down 1.29%, 1.37%, and 1.87%, respectively. Department stores, asset managers, homebuilders, airlines, casual diners, semis, and REITs were among the laggards. Energy, chemicals, healthcare distributors, waste, grocers, and HPCs held up better, with utilities rebounding after a big slide yesterday. Overall, there was no real incremental development in terms of the main market narrative, though all eyes today were on the unrelenting backup in yields and tightening of financial conditions, acting as big headwinds on risk sentiment, and drivers of mechanical and technical selling pressure.

US equities closed mostly lower in Monday trading. Higher rates were the big drag today after some signs of stabilization late last week. September ISM manufacturing beat, the highest since November, with the report indicating more disinflation momentum and employment back into expansion territory.    

The major averages were mixed this week though downside in S&P 500 was fairly modest and Nasdaq edged out a slight gain. This week was described as having a vacuum of catalysts, a trend expected to hold at least through mid-October when September CPI is released and earnings season begins. However, the bullish narrative this week centered around stabilization of rates, particularly at the policy-sensitive short end of the curve.  

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. Today's upside came after a mixed and volatile Wednesday session. Thursday's modest rally tabbed to factors including oversold conditions and rate stabilization. Weekly initial claims again came in well below consensus.

US equities were mixed in fairly choppy Wednesday trading, though ended well off session lows, with the Dow Jones finishing down 20bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 2bps and 22bps respectively. 10Y above 5.60%, the highest since Oct-2007. WTI crude settled up 3.6%, its biggest daily gain since May. August’s durable goods orders rose slightly m/m against consensus for a decline; core capital goods orders were stronger than expected.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, ending just off worst levels and more than reversing Monday's modest gains. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished down 1.14%, 1.47%, and 1.57%, respectively, with the Dow finishing below 200dma for first time since May. All sectors were lower with Big Tech a notable drag, while semis, auto complex, QSRs, media and entertainment, machinery, cosmetics, grocers, and China tech also underperformed. Meanwhile, Biotech, pharma, airlines, AG chemicals, oil majors, E&Ps, and apparel retailers fared a bit better. Overall, the markets were unable to shake risk-off throughout the entire Tuesday session despite some mixed economic data takeaways. It seems as though there is a catalyst vacuum until around mid-October, when the market gets the September CPI on the 12th and the earnings season begins.

US equities were mostly higher in quiet Monday trading, though upside is fairly limited. Upward pressure on rates is still an overhang on broader risk sentiment, particularly as the move has been more about oil and the Fed than growth. PCE inflation is the highlight of the week on Friday.

It was a broad risk-off week, with Friday's attempt at an oversold bounce not gaining much traction. The major event was the September FOMC meeting, for which takeaways generally leaned hawkish. The Fed kept rates steady as expected but also issued a new edition of the dot plot which maintained forecasts for another 2023 hike and reduced the median forecast for 2024 easing to 50bp (from 100bp in June).

US equities were lower in a quiet Thursday afternoon trading session, near worst levels and extending Wednesday's declines. The S&P had its worst session since March; and the Nasdaq more than doubled Wednesday's sharp drop. Big tech was again among the biggest drags. Networking/communications, homebuilders, REITs, oil services, exchanges, auto suppliers, QSRs, and casinos were some of the other laggards. Among the outperformers were refiners, managed care, media apparel retailers, and food. Oil price spike, seasonality, dampened momentum in pockets of big tech, consumer headwinds and the United Auto Workers strike are some of the other higher-profile areas of caution.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, moving toward their worst levels following today's Fed meeting, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 22bps, 94bps, and 153bps respectively. No surprise as FOMC left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Also as expected, the median dot for 2023 continued to show one more rate hike. Klaviyo’s IPO priced at $30/sh.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though stocks ended near session highs. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished down 0.31%, 0.22%, and 0.23%, respectively. Big tech was mostly stronger though Amazon (AMZN) was a notable decliner. Managed care, machinery, road and rail, semis, restaurants, hotels, casinos, grocers, and HPCs were among the laggards. Steel, insurers, autos, biotech, homebuilders, cruise lines, and telecom fared better. Treasuries were weaker with the curve flattening amid some upward pressure on yields from hotter Canadian inflation. 2Y yield moved above 5.10%. The dollar was slightly higher on the euro and yen crosses. Gold finished little changed while Bitcoin futures were up 1.4%. WTI crude settled down 0.1%. Overall, rate backup and higher oil prices continued to be flagged as headwinds. Looking ahead, the markets expect a near-100% chance that the Fed will hold at Wednesday's FOMC meeting and maintain its hawkish higher-for-longer messaging.

US equities finished little changed in very quiet, rangebound Monday trading. Markets are in a bit of a waiting game ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. September builder confidence missed, falling to the lowest level since April.

US equities were mostly lower in up and down trading this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing back below their 50-day moving averages. The August CPI report garnered the most attention, with the headline coming in largely in line with expectations (though driven higher by recent strength in energy prices) but the core printing was a little hotter than consensus. Nevertheless, analysts had little sense the release would change the Fed's thinking about a likely hold at next week's FOMC meeting.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 96bps, 84bps, and 81bps respectively. Headline PPI much hotter than expected but core PPI in line and continuing to slow on a y/y basis. Headline and core control retail sales came in stronger. Initial claims were lower than expected, highlighting a still strong labor market. UAW president said union and automakers remain far apart on negotiations. ARM’s IPO priced at $51 a share, at the top of the indicated range and valuing the company at ~$54.5B.

US equities finished mixed in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, with the Dow ending down 0.20%, and the S&P and Nasdaq finishing up 0.12% and 0.29%. Big tech was mostly higher, reversing some of yesterday's pullback, though market breadth was negative overall. Autos, semis, utilities, software, MedTech and life sciences, trucking, and telecom were some of the other areas of strength. Airlines, media, banks, homebuilders, energy, auto suppliers, machinery, industrial conglomerates, and tech hardware were among the laggards. Treasuries were firmer with curve steepening. The dollar was better on the euro and yen crosses but little changed vs sterling. Gold finished down 0.1% while bitcoin futures finished up 0.5%. WTI crude ended down 0.4% after Tuesday's near-2% gain hit its highest level in nearly ten months on Tuesday. In macroeconomic news, Headline August CPI saw its largest monthly increase since June 2022, which was as expected, while Core was a bit hotter than consensus. Looking ahead, August PPI comes out tomorrow and preliminary September consumer sentiment (and inflation expectations) are out Friday.

US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing down 0.05%, 0.57%, and 1.04%, respectively. Big tech, especially Apple (AAPL), was a drag after helping drive the market higher yesterday. Software, networking and communications, HPCs, beverages, freight and logistics, homebuilders, building materials, and MedTech were among the other laggards. Meanwhile, energy, banks, insurers, credit cards, airlines, rails, and casual diners held up better. Treasuries were mostly firmer with some curve flattening after another backup in yields on Monday. The dollar index finished up 0.2% with gains on the major crosses. Gold ended down 0.6% while bitcoin futures ended up 4.5% following a 3.5% selloff in the prior session. WTI crude settled up 1.8%, ending near 10-month highs after the OPEC report highlighted a growing supply deficit. In macroeconomic news, the NFIB small business optimism index slipped to 91.3 in August from 91.9 in July, marking the 20th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Otherwise, there was not much else in today's headlines, as the market still seems to largely be in waiting mode for CPI tomorrow and then PPI, retail sales, ECB and UAW contract expiration on Thursday.

US equities were higher in Monday trading trading as the S&P and Nasdaq finished near best levels and ended back above their 50dmas after slipping below last week. There's big week ahead with CPI, PPI, and retail sales on the US economic calendar, the AAPL iPhone event, Barclays Financial Services Conference, ECB meeting and China activity data. The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed 1Y inflation expectations are up 0.1pp to 3.6% though the 3Y fell, while views on current and future household finances deteriorated.

US equities were down this week, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing the week down 75 bps, 129 bps, and 193 bps respectively and the S&P and Nasdaq dropping back below their 50-day moving averages. It was a generally risk-off week in the market, though there was a big focus on a stronger-than-expected read for August ISM Services. Fedspeak stressed that the path forward would remain dependent on the incoming data. The big corporate story of the week was the 6.0% slide in Apple, which faced headwinds from a China government ban.

US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, ending off session lows. The big development today has been a Bloomberg report about China looking to expand their iPhone ban. Initial claims came in lower than expected, falling to levels not seen since February following a stronger employment reading in ISM services yesterday.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 57bps, 70bps, and 106bps respectively. ISM services surprised to the upside. Fed's Beige Book said growth was modest in July and August. Fed's Collins said she does not think the central bank is there yet on containing inflation, but also noted may be very near, or at, peak rates.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posted a second-straight weekly gain, while the small-cap Russell 2000 broke a four-week streak of declines and posted the best weekly performance since March. The major averages were all higher this week, with strength tabbed in large part to the big pullback in Treasury yields as the week's economic data releases showed a cooling of labor market conditions.

US equities were mixed to lower Thursday, ending off best levels, with the Dow and S&P ending down 0.48% and 0.16%, respectively, and the Nasdaq ending up 0.11%. Retail, growth software, semis, athletic apparel and sporting goods, autos, and regional banks were some of the better performers. Healthcare saw fairly broad-based weakness. Some of the other laggards included Dollar stores, transports, restaurants and drug stores. Today there was a big pickup in earnings activity with tech, consumer and retail in focus. Overall, there were several moving pieces in focus on Thursday, though it was also a waiting game for nonfarm payrolls and ISM manufacturing tomorrow following a nice run-up earlier in the week.

US equities were higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending just off session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 11 bps, 38 bps, and 54 bps respectively. ADP private payrolls came in softer than expected for August. Q2 GDP was revised down on weaker inventory and trade contributions. August pending-home sales rose vs consensus for a monthly pullback. Apple confirmed September 12th as the date for the expected launch of its iPhone 15 models.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending near session highs, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.85%, 1.45%, and 1.74%, respectively. Big tech saw solid gains across the board. Semis, department stores, growth software, networking, metals, airlines, and telecom were some of the other outperformers. There were few decliners, though refiners, staples, utilities, rails, and A&D were among the underperformers. It was very quiet once again in terms of macro headlines. There has still been an outsized focus on China stimulus measures, with China state banks reportedly set to cut rates on bulk of the country's $5.3T of existing mortgages.

US equities were higher in very quiet late-summer Monday trading, ending just off best levels. Upside is likely a function of the fairly balanced messaging from Powell last week, renewed peak Fed chatter, rate stabilization, M&A pickup, China stimulus and dampened positioning and sentiment indicators. Meanwhile, a light day of data included the August Dallas Fed Index, which beat and improved for a third-straight month. 

US equities were mostly higher this week. Upside was tabbed to peak Fed optimism, including Chair Powell not offering any view on a higher neutral rate or push back against 2024 rate cuts. Nvidia earnings was the big corporate story of the week. Results exceeded very elevated expectations, while the company guided Q3 revenue more than 25% ahead of consensus and announced a $25B buyback program.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. The S&P 500 finished below the 4400 level, finishing down 1.35%, while the Dow and Nasdaq finished down 1.08% and 1.87%, respectively. Megacap tech was mostly weaker. Semis, growth software, streaming, autos, pharma and global miners also trailed. Banks, insurance, containers and packaging, tobacco and drug distributors were among the few outperformers. Elsewhere, strong earnings results from Nvidia (NVDA) was the big story early on, though unfortunately the blowout was unable to provide a sustainable tailwind to some of the other high-profile beneficiaries of the AI hype. It was very quiet from a macro headline perspective, apart from chatter about Fedspeak going into tomorrow’s Jackson Hole.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 54 bps, 110 bps, and 159 bps respectively. August flash manufacturing and services PMIs both missed expectations and saw contractions in new orders. July new home sales were a bit better. Busy day of retail earnings with very mixed takeaways adding to the recent pickup in debate about the degree of consumer resilience. Today's rebound tabbed to big the Treasury rally, even though some of that was driven by softer flash PMI data out of Europe.

US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading and ended just off worst levels, though the downside was fairly limited. The Dow and S&P finished down 0.51% and 0.28%, respectively, with Nasdaq finished up 0.06%. Department stores were the worst performers in a weak retail space. Regional banks, semis, food, credit cards, airlines, and med-tech were some of other the laggards. Meanwhile, toys, casinos, builders, video games, streaming, hospitals and steel outperformed. Overall, disappointing retail earnings takeaways, dampened AI momentum, renewed ratings scrutiny on banks and some semblance of rate stabilization are a few of the issues in the market today. Looking ahead, the market is still largely in waiting mode ahead of Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings release tomorrow post-close and Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole on Friday.

US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading, ending a bit off best levels. It was a quiet session with nothing incremental in terms of market narrative. The Fed's Jackson Hole symposium is on tap for Friday with more discussion in the press over the weekend about the upside risk surrounding the neutral rate due to higher productivity and increased deficits.

US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down for a third-straight week. The big story this week was the ongoing backup in yields, with the 10Y yield hitting 4.33% this week, the highest since 2007, while 10Y TIPS yields hit the highest since 2009. There wasn't much new from this week's July FOMC meeting minutes, which contained no hints at future policy actions, though officials warned of significant upside risk to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy. 

US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq ending down 0.84%, 0.78%, and 1.17%, respectively. Big tech was largely lower. PBM names and drug distributors were the big laggards. Airlines, homebuilders, restaurants, and leisure names underperformed as well. Networking, search, credit cards, pharma, defense, fertilizers, commodity chemicals, and China tech beat the tape, though energy fared best amid a crude rebound. Despite some early strength, there was no real change to the market narrative. Looking ahead, there is nothing on the economic calendar for Friday. Fed's Jackson Hole conference is the macro highlight late next week, though there is a lot of skepticism Powell will offer any explicit near-term policy signals ahead of September’s FOMC meeting.

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, ending near session lows. The Path of least resistance remains lower despite some earlier signs of stabilization from better retail earnings and US economic data. While there was no surprises in FOMC minutes, the tightening bias is still intact and next week's Jackson Hole conference is too soon for any explicit peak policy signal from Powell.  

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading and ended near session lows, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq down 1.02%, 1.16%, and 1.14%, respectively. All sectors were lower, though commodity equities and machinery were among the worst performers on the latest China data disappointments. Banks were hit by cautious comments from Fitch, with credit cards, life insurers, transports, and autos being some of the other underperformers. Homebuilders were a standout on Buffett stake news, and Pharma was another relative outperformer. The clearest excuse for today’s pullback seems to be the latest growth concerns out of China and the market's continued disappointment with the magnitude of policy response, even with the asymmetric rate cut today.

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 7 bps, 58 bps, and 105 bps respectively. A Fairly uneventful session ahead of retail earnings, retail sales and FOMC minutes this week and Fed's Jackson Hole conference next week. This week brings the start of the July quarter reporting season for retailers. US Steel rejected an unsolicited offer from Cleveland Cliffs.

US equities were mostly lower this week, with most major indices adding to last week's declines. There were few surprises in Thursday's largely in-line release of July CPI, with the headline and core measures printing monthly increases just below 0.2% for the second straight month. More than 90% of the S&P 500 index has now reported, with members continuing to report earnings marginally better than expected (but generally not seeing positive earnings surprises rewarded).

US equities finished mostly higher in Thursday trading, but ended well off best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.15%, 0.03%, and 0.12%, respectively. Big tech was largely higher, and software, networking and communications, managed care, exchanges, retail, travel and leisure, and telecom were among the outperformers. Energy, homebuilders, auto suppliers, industrial metals, fertilizers, and machinery were some of the laggards. For macroeconomic news, July headline and core CPI were both up 0.2% m/m, in line with estimates, and core was up 4.7% y/y.

US equities were lower in a Wednesday trading session that saw some fairly large intraday swings, ending near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 54 bps, 70 bps, and 117 bps respectively. No big directional drivers in play ahead of July CPI tomorrow. Preview commentary has highlighted expected support for the broader disinflation narrative. Penn Gaming was up on its ESPN deal.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though the market came off worst levels through the afternoon. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all finished down 0.45%, 0.42%, and 0.79%, respectively. Most sectors were down, with banks, asset managers, semis, retail, software, paper and packaging and food among the worst laggards. Big tech was also mostly lower. Looking ahead, the market awaits July CPI data out on Thursday morning, with the Street looking for a 0.2% m/m increase in the headline reading.

US equities finished higher in fairly quiet Monday trading, ending near best levels. There were no big directional drivers in play and still a lot of push and pull surrounding the big themes. CPI previews (out on Thursday) and Manheim used-vehicle index fit with the disinflation narrative, while comments from Fed's Williams were dovish.   

US equities were lower this week as the S&P 500 was down for the first week in four, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq trailed the broader S&P. This week saw a big yield curve steepening move with the 10Y yield up over 15 bp, pushing beyond 4.10% for the first time since November, though the short end of the curve rallied amid the latest round of positive macro surprise momentum. This week also saw Fitch downgrade its US long-term credit rating.

US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, though ending off worst levels. S&P 500 posted its third-straight decline, finishing down 0.26% and on pace to break its four-straight weekly gains. Similarly, the Dow finished down 0.20% and the Nasdaq 0.11%. Airlines, homebuilders, restaurants, casinos, machinery, MedTech, REITs, utilities, and telecom were some of the laggards. Big tech was largely better, though EVs, retail and apparel, energy, industrial metals, banks, and life insurers fared the best. There was a massive volume of earnings today, now that nearly 80% of the S&P 500 has reported.

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, ending near their worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 98bps, 138bps, and 217bps respectively. Risk off chalked up to the surprise US credit rating downgrade by Fitch. ADP private payrolls came in well ahead of consensus, while pay growth for job-stayers was the slowest pace since November. On the earnings front, volume remains elevated and more than two-thirds of S&P 500 has now reported.

US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading, though the Dow finished up 0.20%, while the S&P and Nasdaq finished down 0.27% and 0.43%, respectively. Today's fairly uneventful session came after some modest upside on Monday’s session that capped off a strong July, with the S&P and Nasdaq rising for a fifth straight month. Today’s outperformers included networking, AG machinery, building products, refiners, homebuilders, and auto-parts retailers. Airlines, EVs, energy, banks, MedTech, biotech, fertilizers, restaurants, apparel, cruise lines, and telecom were among the laggards, and big tech was mixed.

US equities were modestly higher in very quiet Monday trading, ending just off best levels. The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey said demand weakened and credit tightened for all loan categories, in line with Fed Chair Powell's preview last week. Chicago PMI saw slight sequential improvement in July, largely in line with consensus. 

US equities finished higher in Friday trading as the major averages all capped off solid weekly gains, including the S&P 500 up for a third-straight week. Several factors likely behind the renewed push higher, including an overdone BoJ fade, disinflation traction, and upbeat earnings takeaways. June core PCE was in line, decelerating from May and now up 4.1% y/y. Just over 50% of S&P 500 has reported, with 81% of reporters beating consensus EPS expectations.

Market sell-off this afternoon after the S&P ticked above 4600 points earlier. Peak Fed discussion remains a tailwind despite Powell leaving room for further hikes this year. A busy morning for U.S. economic data including Q2 GDP up +0.4pp to 2.4%, initial claims beating and continuing claims lowest since January. In earnings, Meta proved standout on strong engagement trends, new product monetization, and AI improvements. While Southwest Airlines drove industry weakness as analysts concerned that fuel and labor costs will add further margin pressure through year-end.

US equities finished narrowly mixed in Wednesday trading, with some choppiness following the afternoon's Fed updates; the Dow Jones finishing up 23bps, while the S&P500, and Nasdaq closed down 2bps, and 12bps respectively. The Fed raised rates by 25bp today after its June skip, as expected, bringing the funds rate to 5.25-5.50%, and Fed staff is no longer forecasting a recession. Light day of US data included a June new home sales miss, breaking three-straight monthly gains.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, though ending off best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.10%, 0.28%, and 0.61%, respectively. The DJIA logged its 12th consecutive gain, just shy of the all-time record of 13, set in 1987. Overall, earnings drove a lot of the big moves today. It was the usual mixed bag of takeaways and expectations and investor sentiment continue to play a key role. Just under 79% of reporters have exceeded consensus EPS expectations, better than the 77% five-year average.

US equities were higher in very quiet Monday trading, ending just off best levels. US flash manufacturing PMI beat, breaking three-straight monthly declines and was the highest print since April. US flash services PMI missed, but it is still in expansion.

US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P 500 rising for the fourth week in five, though the Nasdaq was modestly lower. There were a number of moving pieces this week. Several high-profile earnings disappointments (NFLX, TSLA) added scrutiny around big tech valuations and the high bar following outsized YTD gains. Overbought conditions and extended sentiment, along with fading short covering tailwinds, were also part of the bearish narrative. However, there was also some optimism around a broadening of the market rally, more disinflation/soft landing evidence, positive earnings/guidance revisions, and liquidity fears which continue to fade. Next week is busy with the July FOMC meeting and plenty of big earnings reports and macro data points.

US equities were mostly lower in Thursday trading and ended just off worst levels. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq were mixed, ending up 0.47% and down 0.68% and 2.05%, respectively. For macroeconomic news, initial jobless claims beat consensus, though they have reached their lowest since mid-May. On the other hand, continuing claims missed, though they are now at their highest level since early June. Philly Fed manufacturing index missed as well, though prices paid index fell again. Similarly, June existing home sales missed, though pace of price declines have moderated since May. In other news, the Fed remains in quiet period ahead of next week's meeting, and there was nothing particularly controversial in the FOMC previews as the Fed is still widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike. Finally, it has been very quiet outside the US with more headlines about the underwhelming policy support measures out of China.

US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading, though finished off their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 31 bps, 24 bps, and 3 bps respectively. June housing starts slipped more than expected, and Building permits undershot consensus as well. The latest Reuters survey revealed economists increasingly expect next week's rate hike will be the Fed's last. Goldman Sachs results were noisy, mixed, and Bloomberg reported Apple is working on generative AI tools.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq up 1.12%, 0.84%, and 0.96%, respectively. Small-caps had another strong session. Additionally, select big tech, banks and investment banks, credit cards, energy, managed care, fertilizers, industrial metals, machinery, airlines, trucking, and travel and leisure were some of the other outperformers. Meanwhile, A&D, waste, MedTech, semis, grocers, beverages, and utilities were among the laggards. Besides that, it was pretty quiet from a headlines perspective. Bank of America July Global Fund Manager Survey said sentiment remains bearish, though it also flagged soft-landing expectations and a better profit outlook. Looking ahead, the market awaits the important upcoming batch of megacap tech earnings starting this Friday and continuing in the next several weeks.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 22bps, 39bps, and 93bps respectively. China Q2 GDP came in softer than expected, as did June retail sales. Russia halted the UN-brokered grain deal with Ukraine. Earnings activity continues to pick up this week with 60 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report.

US equities higher this week, more than erasing last week's declines despite some pullback Friday. June CPI was the overarching focus of the week, coming in softer than consensus for both headline and core. Still, this and other data did little to shift expectations for near-term Fed policy. Q2 earnings began with four big banks Friday, and while all posted beats, analysts had some areas of concern.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending up for a fourth-straight session. Headline and core PPI both came in cooler than expected, increasing 0.1% m/m in June. Initial claims were below expectations, in line with the still strong labor market. The data is still unlikely to push the Fed off of a July rate hike, though the first rate cut is now priced for Jan-2024.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 25bps, 74bps, and 115bps respectively. Softer June CPI report was today's major focus; however, despite softer print, Fedspeak following CPI was hawkish. Not much of note in the latest Beige Book report from the Fed reflecting a slight increase in economic activity and mixed perceptions about corporate pricing power.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending just off best levels after rallying in the last hour of trading. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished up 0.93%, 0.67%, and 0.55%, respectively. Looking ahead, the market awaits the highly anticipated June CPI out tomorrow morning. Headline CPI is expected to rise from 0.1% in May to 0.3% in June, though annualized CPI is expected to fall 0.9 points m/m to 3.1% in June, which would be lowest since March of 2021 and down from its June 2022 cyclical peak of 9.1%. Meanwhile, Core CPI is expected to tick down 0.1 points to 0.3% m/m, while annualized core is expected to fall 0.3 points to 5.0%, which would be lowest since November of 2021.

US equities finished higher in relatively uneventful Monday trading following some Friday weakness that capped a down week for the major indices. Fed policy is the key focus ahead of the 25-26 Jul FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to deliver a 25bp hike after June's hold. Much of this week's focus is being pulled ahead to key inflation data and the start of bank earnings season on Friday. Fedspeak was also in view today.

US equities were lower this week, though downside was fairly modest despite some cautious Fed expectations and a big backup in yields. The big story of the week was the Treasury selloff that sent 2Y yields back above 5%, hitting the highest level since 2007 on Thursday before coming off on Friday. The week's backup in yields reflects bets that Fed will hold rates higher for longer after hot batch of economic data. 

US equities finished broadly lower on Thursday afternoon the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all closing roughly around (1%) below.A big beat for ADP private payrolls, rising nearly 500K ahead of the 250K consensus estimates. Although job growth came out stronger, it did little to assuage concerns about the economy, rather playing into the need for a more aggressive Fed/global tightening cycle. Bulls still looking to a soft landing and disinflation traction as key talking points. In terms of specific companies, META formally launched a new Twitter competitor called Threads and Jet Blue said it would end its alliance with American Airlines in an attempt to get the DoJ to reconsider its opposition to a deal with Spirit Airlines.

US equities finished lower in largely uneventful Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 38bps, 20bps, and 18bps respectively. FOMC minutes release largely a nonevent. May factory orders undershot consensus. Geopolitical tensions in focus amid reports the US is preparing to curtail Chinese companies' access to cloud-computing services.

US equities were little changed in a shortened Monday trading session after rallying last week with all of the major indexes up over 2%. There has also been a lot of discussion about how favorable 1H performance bodes well for the rest of the year. ISM manufacturing slipped further into contraction in June, though the prices paid metric came in softer than expected, providing more support for the disinflation theme.

US equities higher this week, with market performance underpinned by continued economic optimism and strong economic data, which outweighed fears of higher-for-longer Fed policy. Still, at the ECB conference in Portugal, Chair Powell said he wouldn't take the idea of hikes at consecutive meetings off the table.

US equities finished mostly higher in relatively quiet Thursday trading. A strong batch of economic data this morning affirmed bullish narratives around a tight labor market and resilient consumer. There was no surprise as all banks "passed" the Fed's stress test with takeaways highlighting the better performance on the part of the larger banks. Economic data is the other big area of focus as weekly initial jobless claims came in below consensus.

US equities finished mixed in fairly directionless Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing down 22bps and 4bps respectively while the Nasdaq closed up 27bps. Geopolitical tensions were in focus again on reporting that the White House is considering new restrictions on AI chip exports to China. The ECB commentary out of the Sintra conference remains hawkish, while Powell said not to rule out the Fed moving at consecutive meetings.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, near best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq up 0.73%, 1.20%, and 1.73%, respectively. Today's strength comes after US equities finished mostly lower on Monday and nearly reverses last week’s declines. Big tech rebounded after a weak Monday, and other outperformers included homebuilders, airlines, autos, software, crypto, media, Chinese internets, banks, retail, and semis. That said, there were still a few pockets of downside though, including drug stores, healthcare providers, healthcare distributors, biotech and life sciences, A&D, and precious metals miners. Overall, today's upside can be tabbed to soft landing optimism after a strong batch of economic data, though the market is still waiting on coming key June economic data along with the start of Q2 earnings season in the next couple weeks.

US equities lower this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq snapping respective five and eight-week streaks of gains. There were few changes to the broader themes in the market, with higher-for-longer Fed policy and extended positioning and sentiment the crux of the bearish narrative, offset by soft landing expectations and disinflation traction on the bull side.

US equities mostly higher in uneventful Thursday trading. The recent defensive tone is largely being chalked up to overbought conditoins. Initial jobless claims were unchanged at 264K, but still a bit higher than expected. Powell's second day of testimony to the Senate Banking Committee was fairly uneventful, and market pricing around the rate path was fairly stable.

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, off best levels after a stalled afternoon rally attempt, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 30bps, 52bps, and 121bps respectively. Powell argued in congressional testimony that the Fed should focus on its inflation goal given how far away it is on that front. Another hotter-than-expected UK inflation print and pickup in expectations for a 50 bp rate hike from the Bank of England on Thursday. FTC sued Amazon over allegations it tricked customers into signing up for Prime.

US equities finished lower in a very quiet Tuesday trading, though finishing well off worst levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq down 0.72%, 0.47%, and 0.16%, respectively. Laggards included energy, MedTech, industrial and precious metals, chemicals, banks, credit cards, media, and China tech. Conversely, big tech was mostly higher, along with managed care, healthcare distributors, waste, homebuilders, cruise lines, apparel retailers, and beverages faring better. Overall, it was a very quiet session with no real changes to key themes. Looking ahead, the market awaits to digest Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the House tomorrow.

US equities were higher this week, with the S&P logging its fifth consecutive week of gains, while the Nasdaq was up for the eighth straight week. The Fed voted Wednesday to hold rates steady for the first time after a 10-meeting hiking campaign that brought 500bp of tightening, though the 50bp rise in the 2023 forecast on the dot plot was more hawkish than expected. A number of economic reports brought support for the disinflation narrative.

Yesterday’s hawkish pause in the federal funds rate continues to reverberate throughout the market with Chairman Powell seeming more supportive of soft-landing scenarios via a gradual cooling in the labor market. China’s May activity data came in a bit softer than expected and the PBoC cut its one-year medium-term lending facility rate by 10bp. In response, Chinese state media called for coordinated macro policies to boost demand. Investors can expect the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment report out in the morning. 

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading after some choppiness following the June FOMC meeting, with the Dow Jones closing down 68bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 8bps and 39bps respectively. The Fed left the funds rate unchanged at 5.00-5.25%, as expected; however, the median dot in the SEP jumped 50bp to 5.6% vs the 25bps expected, implying two more rate hikes. Headline PPI came in cooler than expected for May, falling to the slowest annual pace since December of 2020, and Core PPI print was in line.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, having stayed in largely the same range throughout the session. The CPI is out of the way while the Fed is on tap for tomorrow, with the Fed expected to maintain the fed funds target range at 5.0-5.25% at the June FOMC meeting. May CPI was largely in line with expectations with y/y headline growth the slowest since April of 2021.    

US equities finished higher, ending near best levels in uneventful Monday trading. We have a big macro week ahead with the CPI and Fed. The ECB and BoJ meetings, along with bank presentations at the Morgan Stanley conference are also expected to get attention. Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 price target from 4000 to 4500, reflecting a lower US recession probability. 

US equities stronger in an extremely quiet week, with the market's attention pulled ahead to next week's May CPI report and the June FOMC meeting decision.

A relatively slow week for financial news as the market waits for CPI and FOMC meeting next week. Market dynamics still up for debate with bulls citing a low volatility backdrop, earnings, and disinflation while bears focus on a higher-for-longer Fed, liquidity headwinds, and operating leverage risks for earnings. The session also marked a day of geopolitical volatility after reports that Cuba will host a secret China spy base focusing on the U.S. A mixed bag of earnings with SMTC finishing higher while RENT, GME, OXM underperforming.

US equities were mixed in very quiet Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones ending up 27 bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 38 bps and 129 bps respectively. Another very uneventful session as the market still seems to be in waiting mode for CPI and the Fed next week. Biggest development seemed to be weaker-than-expected China May export data, and some note of surprise on the Bank of Canada rate hike.

US equities finished higher in uneventful Tuesday trading, as the major averages finished near session highs though the upside was very limited. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished up 0.03%, 0.23%, and 0.36%, respectively. Nothing new on the US economic calendar for today and initial claims coming this Thursday are the only other meaningful release this week from a market perspective. The market is still largely devoid of big directional drivers. Overall, it has been quiet from a headline perspective given the dearth of key economic data and no Fedspeak due to the blackout period heading into next week's FOMC meeting.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending off best levels from the midday. No major macro drivers were at play ahead of what is expected to be a calm week with only a few economic releases and no Fedspeak amid the blackout period into next week's FOMC meeting. ISM services missed, as it reported the lowest since December with employment falling in contraction territory, though the prices index fell to the lowest since May-20.

The major averages were all higher this week, with the S&P 500 posting a third-straight weekly gain and Nasdaq up for a sixth-straight week, matching the longest streak since Dec-19 into Jan-20. Upside was driven in part by a repricing around June Fed expectations, as markets cut the odds of a June rate hike by nearly 50 bp to ~30%. However, the market pricing for the December median fed funds rate continues to hold around 5%, suggesting no rate cuts by year-end. The Senate also passed debt ceiling legislation on Thursday, and will be signed by President Biden ahead of the 5-Jun deadline.    

The market continues to deal with a ton of moving pieces after it shook off yesterday's weakness in a risk-on session. Multiple reports have discussed the increased likelihood of a June pause from the Fed, though they also highlighted expectations for further tightening after that. ADP private payrolls came in well ahead of consensus with the May ISM manufacturing index a touch weaker. Outside of earnings, Goldman Sachs flagged expectations for a tough environment and guided trading revenue below consensus.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq finishing down 41bps, 61bps, and 63bps respectively. Fed officials offered support for a June pause. April JOLTS showed job openings well above estimates. Debt ceiling deal looks on track to pass the House. Latest Fed Beige Book said economic activity was little changed from April's report.

US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading, with S&P holding around unchanged mark, the Dow down .15%, and the Nasdaq up .32%. Tech continued its Friday rally with further AI-driven momentum. It was fairly quiet from a macroeconomic perspective today. Elsewhere, the market awaits news on Washington’s debt ceiling increase. The White House and House Speaker McCarthy reached a tentative debt ceiling deal over the weekend. The House is expected to vote on Wednesday, with a Senate vote to follow.

US equities were mixed this week, with the Dow Jones finishing down 4bps, while the S&P500 rose 32bps, and the Nasdaq jumped 251bps on tech upside driven by AI optimism following nVidia’s earnings results. Debt ceiling negotiators neared a deal to raise the debt ceiling for two years. Another big market repricing toward the Fed's higher-for-longer outlook amid hawkish Fedspeak and data that supported the soft landing narrative. Retailer earnings offered mixed takeaways.

US equities were mixed in Thursday trading, with the Dow Jones ending down 11bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 88bps and 171bps respectively. AI optimism the big story today with the blowout July quarter guidance from NVidia. Reports the White House and Republicans are discussing a debt limit deal that would lift the ceiling through 2024. On the data front, initial claims came in lower than expected. First quarter GDP growth was revised up, though PCE inflation also revised higher. Pending home sales missed.

Debt ceiling negotiations remain the major headline with McCarthy saying both sides are far apart on some issues but he believes a deal will be secured.Fed staff continue to forecast a mild recession starting later this year given the expected further tightening in financial and bank credit conditions. Retail outperformed, particularly after apparel reported well-received results from Abercrombie and Fitch, Kohl’s, and Urban Outfitters. Initial jobless and continuing claims are due out in the morning.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, ending near worst levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq down .69%, 1.12%, and 1.26%, respectively. The biggest decliners included steel, homebuilders, hospitals, managed care, exchanges, payment rails, semicaps, hotels, and casinos, while energy, banks, airlines, credit cards, housing-linked retail, department stores, and media and entertainment outperformed. There is still not a lot of readthrough in sector performance again. That said, the debt ceiling remains top of mind for the markets, with today's negotiating session having concluded with still no sign of progress. Looking ahead, May FOMC meeting minutes are out tomorrow at 2 pm. The minutes will likely focus on timing of Fed's expected assessment period and what factors could trigger further tightening. The market will also be scrutinizing the extent of any pushback against pivot expectations.

US equities were mostly higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, though the S&P ended off session highs and just under 4200 level. The latest US debt ceiling updates are skewing positive, with House Speaker McCarthy saying nothing has been agreed to, but said a deal could potentially be reached as soon as tonight and that it's still possible to push through Congress by 1-Jun. Meanwhile, it was another busy day of Fedspeak that provided some more hawkish takes.

US equities were higher this week, with the S&P 500 up for the first time in three weeks and breaking a six-week streak of absolute changes of less than 1%. Upside was driven by factors including optimism around a debt ceiling resolution, support for the soft landing narrative from economic data and retail earnings, and tech leadership with some positive spillover into semis and AI. Still, there was a big backup rates despite the resilient data, new debt ceiling uncertainty after some negative updates Friday, and a repricing for more hawkish Fed.

Big tech leading the gainers with FANMAGs coming in higher as Netflix outperformed on their ad-supported offering. The Fed remains in the headlines as investors try to interpret hawkish higher-for-longer messaging with market hopes of a rate cut in the 2nd half. In Washington, Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy said the debt limit talks are in a much better place as he sees a deal on the House floor by next week. All eyes remain on Secretary Yellen's X-date on June 1st.

US equities finished higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 124bps, 119bps, and 128bps respectively. Risk-on move was driven by some positive debt ceiling and regional banking developments. Quiet on the data front ahead of claims tomorrow. April housing starts were in line and March revised down while building permits were light.

Somewhat of a mixed bag today. Growth worries along with the weak China April activity data. In addition, debt ceiling a big overhang with McCarthy still talking about a lack of progress. Tech outperformance keeping scrutiny on weak market breadth. Also some focus on lack of follow-through behind Monday's bank bounce. Fedspeak still reflective of a tightening bias despite market expectations for a pause and quick pivot. Regulatory backdrop for big deals remains very difficult with biopharma in the crosshairs.

Mild gains today came despite some renewed concerns about economic growth following record sequential contraction in the NY Fed's Empire manufacturing survey. Headlines over the weekend highlighted some traction behind the debt ceiling negotiations and the key players are set to meet again on Tuesday. In terms of Fedspeak, there was nothing surprising in the latest batch and little that is likely to alter the calculus for a June pause.

US equities mostly lower this week, though Big Tech generated a gain for the Nasdaq and provided a notable cusion for the S&P. Economic data reflected a continued easing of inflationary pressures, though there were also some worries about how weaker data fed into recession fears. The ongoing federal debt-ceiling crisis consumed a lot of bandwidth without any concrete signs of progress; however, discussions are ongoing and there remain thoughts a deal will ultimately be found. There was also a lot of commentary on the extremely narrow market leadership offered by Big Tech.

Regional banks continue to lag while big tech finished higher on the back of Google's outperformance. The push and pull between Fed critics and supporters remains a theme. Hard landing camp aided by inverted yield curve while soft-landing points to a tight labor market and strong Q1 earnings. April PPI numbers came in softer than expected with core PPI in line, marking the lowest annualized print since January of 2021. In terms of specific companies, Disney with mixed takeaways as the stock hit by a miss in DTC and softer 2H margin guidance for domestic parks. Outside of earnings, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced he's hired a new CEO for X/Twitter

US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 9bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 45bps and 104bps respectively. Headline and core CPI both higher in April, largely in line with expectations, with the big takeaway seemingly the slowdown in core services excluding OER and rent to just 0.1%. The print supportive of Fed pause expectations but also Fed's higher-for-longer messaging. Debt ceiling stalemate another key topic for the market, with speculation that the most likely path revolves around a short-term reprieve that gives time to negotiate a budget deal that includes spending cuts, providing a "win" for both sides.

US equities finished lower in quiet Tuesday trading, ending just off session lows though trading rangebound and volume light. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished down 0.17%, 0.46%, and 0.63%, respectively. Though there was nothing specific behind today’s pullback, some higher-profile earnings underwhelmed, regional banks still cannot bounce, debt ceiling angst remains elevated, and CPI data released tomorrow looms.  

US equities were narrowly mixed in very uneventful Monday trading. There was an Initial negative market reaction to the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for April, though the report was largely as expected. Elsewhere, the latest NY Fed consumer survey showed 1Y inflation expectations down 0.3pp to 4.4%, though expected household spending growth is the weakest since Sep-21. 

U.S. equities mostly lower this week as the S&P gave back last week's gains. However, the absolute change of the S&P index was less than 1% for a fifth-straight week. Stocks finished off the week's lows with some push and pull from a number of factors, while takeaways from the latest economic data were mixed. The May FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp rate hike to 5.0-5.25% as expected in a unanimous decision. Regional banks remain in focus, with JPM's takeover of FRC doing little to alleviate angst. With 85% of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings continued to outperform.

Thursday's session was another day of regional bank weakness after the Fed raised rates on by a quarter point on Wednesday. PacWest led the downturn on reports that it's considering a range of strategic options including a sale. First Horizon also finished (33%) lower after regulatory issues derailed a takeover by Toronto-Dominion Bank. Apple reported a Q2 beat on EPS and revenue and plans to increase quarterly dividends and share buyback program. Looking ahead, the much-anticipated April employment report is due out in the morning

US equities finished mostly lower and near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 80bps, 70bps, and 46bps respectively. Fed raised rates by 25bp to 5-5.25%, which marked the median peak projection in the March dot plot. April ISM Services came in ahead on new order strength, and the ADP private payrolls also printed well ahead of estimates. Debt ceiling stalemate in focus with the Washington Post flagging the potential for a "two-track" agreement that both parties could define differently, while the NY Times noted the White House is debating a constitutional challenge to the debt limit.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though major market indices came off worst levels from midday. Regional bank weakness was the big sector story today, while other laggards included energy and crude, credit cards, asset managers, chemicals, REITs, department stores, containerboard, and media. There was some scattered strength in pharma, machinery, semis, hotels, and HPCs. Overall, there has not been any major change in the bullish and bearish talking points. It was another very high-volume earnings day with over 60% of the S&P 500 having now reported. Looking ahead, the market is in a waiting game ahead of high-profile catalysts, including the Fed announcement tomorrow, ECB on Thursday, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

US equities ended slightly lower overall in fairly uneventful Monday trading. April ISM manufacturing index beat, though prices paid index reaccelerated after dipping into contraction in the prior month, and is back to the highest level since July. The Banking sector is in focus as JPM agreed to acquire most of FRC, assuming ~$92B of deposits and substantially all of its assets.

Major week for earnings with 36% of S&P constituents reporting. Weekly leaders include tech and communication services with well-received earnings from META, MSFT, GOOGL, CMCSA, and VZ. Economic data remained a mixed bag with Q1 GDP decelerating, durable-goods above, and the Fed noting a pattern of regional weakness. In Washington, the debt-ceiling battle continues as Speaker McCarthy narrowly passed a GOP proposal expected to be dead on arrival in the Senate. Looking ahead, expect the May FOMC meeting next week with a policy statement due out on Wednesday.

US equities were sharply higher Thursday, ending near best levels, with big tech (META) providing a notable boost. The first great on Q1 GDP came in weaker than expected ahead of March PCE due out tomorrow. Very busy earnings calendar, with key metrics running above their one-year averages and thematic takeaways largely unchanged.

Major US equity indexes were mostly lower in Wednesday trading, ending just off session lows after a failed early bounce attempt, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing down 68bps and 38bps respectively, while the Nasdaq finished up 47bps. Earnings in focus with the largely positive takeaways from a number of high-profile reporters, including big tech names Microsoft and Google. Durable goods orders were notably stronger than consensus for March, though core orders contracted vs consensus for a slight gain. Republicans may now have the votes to pass their debt limit bill in the House, though it will be dead-on-arrival in the Senate.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, near worst levels, with the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq down 1.02%, 1.58%, and 1.98%, respectively. Today’s weakness follows a mixed performance in an uneventful Monday session to start the week. Notable laggards include parcel and logistics, paper and packaging, banks, energy, industrial metals, chemicals, and semis. Some of the few outperformers included Managed care, beverages, hospitals, HPCs, and pharma and biotech. There was some focus today on mixed economic data. Though the market has shaken itself out of a recent stall, with the absolute move in today's S&P 500 the second largest in April after a bout of small moves, there seems to be more negative than positive earnings reactions. That said, takeaways are mixed and expectations and cycle timing are also key factors.

US equities were narrowly mixed in Monday trading in another uneventful session. The Market was devoid of meaningful directional influence with the continued debate surrounding the big themes. The April Dallas Fed Index missed and was the lowest since July of 22, as production and employment indexes weakened m/m while prices indexes were little changed.  

Major US averages mostly lower this week, with the S&P changed by less than 1% for the third straight week, the longest such streak since August 2021. While it was a fairly uneventful week of trading a number of moving pieces remain in play. The Fed overhang remains the key downside risk, while bullish narratives include easing bank stresses, tight corporate bond spreads, and easing financial conditions. The week's batch of economic data likewise offered mixed signals.

Mixed takeaways from the latest batch of earnings with tech, autos, and regional banks underperforming while casinos, road/rail, and semicap equipment finished above the tape. In terms of the Fed, the hard versus soft landing debate rages on with earnings providing little guidance for regulators. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, tried to calm U.S.-China relations by stressing the U.S. has no plans to decouple its economy from China and Biden unsurprisingly rejected a Republican plan to cut government spending in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI are due out in the morning.

US equities were mixed in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending just off their best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 ending down 23bps and 1bps respectively while the Nasdaq closed up 3bps. House Speaker McCarthy unveiled budget bill to raise debt ceiling that includes $4.5T in total budget cuts, as well as capping budget growth at 1% per year. Not much new out of latest Fed Beige Book, which was consistent with recent economic releases showing slowing economic activity, disinflation, and easing labor-market conditions.

US equities finished somewhat lower overall in an uneventful Tuesday trading. Homebuilders, A&D, travel and tourism, industrial metals, money-center and custody banks, and apparel among the outperformers. The underperformers included Internets, REITs, pharma, biotech, chemicals, refiners, and regional banks. There was no big directional drivers in today's price action. The big overnight macro news was the better-than-expected China Q1 GDP report and mixed March activity data with retail sales being the big economic normalization beneficiary. Press reports continue to highlight CREtroubles and cautious sell-side strategist takes.

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels after a late-afternoon recovery from midday lows. The NY Fed's April Empire manufacturing survey came in notably better on the headline and new-orders component; while prices paid continued to slow. The NAHB April homebuilder sentiment also beat, rising for the fourth-straight month. The debt ceiling back in the headlines with GOP Speaker McCarthy offering to raise the debt limit into next year in exchange for spending concessions.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both higher this week for the fourth week of the past five, though the major averages ended off the best weekly levels after a bit of a Friday selloff. Overall, markets finish higher for the week, with upside tabbed to a few factors, including disinflation traction after cooler than expected CPI and PPI prints. Fed updates leaned hawkish as the minutes to the March FOMC meeting showed staff projections at the time of the meeting to include a mild recession starting later this year driven by the recent banking turmoil.

Very quiet session from a headlines perspective with the March inflation print leading the newsflow. To much surprise both the headline PPI and core PPI posted declines, marking their lowest respective levels since January and Mar of 2021. Despite the promising data and expected below-consensus retail sales out tomorrow, recent headlines expect the Fed to continue with another 25bp rate hike at their next meeting. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC that while consumers are spending, they are much more careful about their decisions. Several economic indicators are due out in the morning including export prices, import prices, retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. 

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending near session lows after a late afternoon slide, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 11 bps, 41 bps, and 85 bps respectively. Headline CPI came in a touch cooler than expected in March, easing to the lowest annual pace since May 2021. FOMC minutes noted officials lowered their views of the peak rate on bank turmoil, while several stressed the need for policy flexibility. Fed staff projected mild recession later this year.

US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, off best levels after a late afternoon slide. Cyclicalswere among the best performers again, with homebuilders, machinery, electricalsand multis, road and railways, banks, energy, industrial metals, autos, andretail among the best. Meanwhile, FANMAGs were all lower, along with software,internets, IT equipment, insurance, grocers, bond proxies, and biotech.  Themarket awaits March CPI and FOMC minutes data tomorrow. Some notable earningsinclude Apogee Enterprises before the open and Argan Inc. after the close.

Very quiet session from a headlines perspective despite a lot of moving pieces around key market themes. Big tech led the laggards with Apple, Google notable drags. Despite March's employment report supporting a soft-landing, the market remains worried about a recession due to a deeply inverted yield curve, collapsing money supply growth, tightening bank lending standards, and deteriorating consumer trends. Market preparing for Q1 earnings reports from banks on Friday.

US Equities mostly lower in a holiday-shortened week, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing slightly lower after three weeks of gains. Growth concerns moved back to the front of the market's mind amid a steady stream of weaker-than-expected economic reports. Note that though the market is closed tomorrow, the March nonfarm payrolls report is out at 8:30 AM ET.

US equities finished mostly lower in very quiet Wednesday trading, ending off their worst levels, with the Dow Jones up 24 bps, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq down 25 bps and 107 bps respectively. March ISM Services missed, falling to its lowest level since December. March ADP private payrolls report showed 145K gain, smaller than consensus for 205K. Fedspeak continues to lean hawkish despite labor market and inflation data, with Fed's Mester saying more tightening likely in the pipeline and that central bank needs to hold the real funds rate in positive territory for "some time".

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, ending near worst levels. Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished lower by .59%, .58%, and .52%, respectively. Market drivers included negative macro surprise momentum, specifically ISM manufacturing, JOLTs, and IP. The market anticipates the March employment report figures this week, with ADP private payrolls coming out tomorrow.

US equities finished mixed in Monday trading, but ended back near best levels after a midday slump. Investors navigated an uneventful session to kick off Q2, with not much expected ahead in the holiday-shortened week as the market waits on key catalysts including nonfarm payrolls on 7-Apr and the March CPI on 12-Apr. US ISM manufacturing missed, the lowest since May-20 with new orders down and employment component the lowest since Jul-20.

US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logging their third straight weekly gains amid a very quiet week of trading and a general calming of headlines from the banking industry.

Very quiet session from a headlines perspective as investors wait for the PCE inflation report and the quarter to end tomorrow. Equities showed some resiliency with the S&P back above 4,000 points and higher in six of the last eight sessions. In addition, the Nasdaq is operating in a bull market for the first time in nearly three years. Boston Fed president Susan Collins and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari both echoed “higher-for-longer” messaging and more tightening to achieve their 2% target. Also, contributing to the layoff theme, WMG and ROKU announced plans to lay off between 4 and 6% of their workforce. 

US equities finished higher in uneventful Wednesday trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 100bps, 142bps, and 179bps respectively. No clear catalyst behind Wednesday's bounce, and fairly quiet from a headline perspective. February pending home sales were slightly higher month-over-month against expectations for a decline.

US equities finished lower, back near worst levels, in very quiet Tuesday trading. Overall,the market has been struggling for direction with a lot of moving piecessurrounding monetary policy and growth narratives. Recent signs ofstabilization in the banking sector have been a positive from a sentimentperspective, but the fallout is still unknown, and this dynamic also dents someof the momentum surrounding Fed pivot expectations that have provided atailwind for big tech.

Banking was today’s main focus M&A activity helped overall risk sentiments. The markets seem to be taking a “no news is good news" approach as there was nothing out of Europe following UBS’ recent takeover of Credit Suisse.First Citizens Bank will acquire deposits and loans of failed SVB bank and operate their 17 branches. First citizens will purchase roughly $72B of assets at a discount of $16.5B, leaving ~$90B of securities and other assets with the FDIC.Quiet banking headlines pulled attentions back to interest rates where a gap between the market and Fed Projections continues to widen.

US equities were higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining for the second straight week, and growth continuing to outperform value. This week's gains came despite a big bout of volatility in Treasuries amid the Fed meeting and ongoing global banking turmoil. The March FOMC meeting ended with a unanimous 25 bp rate hike, though the policy statement changed language around future increases. Meanwhile, Secretary Yellen sent mixed messages around bank deposit guarantees and FDIC insurance.

US equities finished mostly higher, a bit off session lows in a volatile afternoon trading period. Banking remains the focus as the sector closed broadly lower, contributing to Wednesday’s slide. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen said that the government has taken strong actions to ensure Americans' deposits are safe and would be prepared to take additional steps if warranted. That said, the Fed has still yet to determine the full extent of the banking crisis and whether the lagged impacts of the hiking cycle may generate more casualties.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 163bps, 165bps, and 160bps respectively. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 4.75-5.0%, largely in line with expectations. The Dot plot showed the peak rate unchanged at 5.1% from the December reading, before falling to 4.3% for 2024 and 3.4% for 2025. Pretty quiet on the US economic calendar over the rest of the week with claims and new home sales on Thursday and durable goods orders and the flash PMIs on Friday.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels. The big stories today surrounded the banking industry, with Yellen saying the government is willing to backstop more deposits if needed while officials work to find ways to temporarily expand FDIC coverage. The market is awaiting the Fed rate decision tomorrow.

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, not far from best levels. A bank bounce was the big story today though it looks somewhat precarious. It seems to largely be a function of oversold conditions though select deal and deposit flow update activity has been a positive as well. Meanwhile, UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse for $3.2B.

US equities were mixed in a week dominated by a blizzard of headlines around banking uncertainties following the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank last Friday. In this atmosphere, expectations for next week's Fed meeting and the further rate trajectory were quite volatile.

US equities higher Thursday, rallying after some early weakness as investors continue to process the high velocity of updates around global banking. Credit Suisse is receiving a liquidity line from Swiss National Bank, while First Republic is getting $30B from a number of large banks as part of a rescue package.

US equities finished mostly lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing down 87bps and 70bps respectively, while the Nasdaq closed up 5bps. A lot of focus today on concerns about Credit Suisse, elevated bond market volatility, and lack of movement out of Washington regarding a more explicit deposit guarantee. Softer February headline and core PPI, weaker February retail sales, and further deterioration in the NY Fed Empire survey lending support to the disinflation, slowdown narrative.

US equities higher in a somewhat choppy session, with a bank bounce on deeply oversold conditions and an in-line headline CPI print the key areas of focus. Expectations firmed a bit around Fed rate path pricing in the near-term, with markets now seeing a 75% change of a 25bp hike at the March meeting, though views beyond that remain quite wide/volatile.

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 finishing down 28bps and 15bps respectively, while the Nasdaq finished up 45bps. The US banking situation remains the biggest focus and driver of today's fairly volatile price action. From a Fed perspective, markets are now pricing in a near-40% chance of no rate hike at the March FOMC meeting, with odds for a 50 bp hike down to 0% from 40% on Friday.