In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Market Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change.Guests: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Gong Cheng, Managing Director, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy, Moody's RatingsHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Institutional reforms, policy reversals, debt restructurings and the prospect of new hydrocarbon production are leading to gradual improvement in some sovereigns’ creditworthiness from weak levels.Guest: John Walsh, Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Governance is key to realising credit benefits for new hydrocarbon producersSovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Institutional reforms are supporting creditworthiness for select sovereigns

Risk exposure is highest for those directly involved in the region’s three main hotspots. But the knock-on economic effects of the tensions have the potential to hurt, or help, other APAC governments.Guest: Anushka Shah, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Sovereigns – Asia-Pacific: Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for a host of governments 

India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-AnalystHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research: Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory divergesNonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fallNonfinancial Companies – India: Offshore funding indispensable despite improving domestic liquidity

Challenges include the region’s reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy demand amid population growth, the companies’ weak financials and governments’ reliance on revenue from oil and gas producers.Guests: Roxana Munoz and Carolina Chimenti, both Vice President - Senior Analysts, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated research:Oil & Gas – Latin America & Caribbean: National oil companies struggle to reconcile governments' emission-reduction goals

Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country’s currency is increasing. The sovereign’s creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies.Guests: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Iker Ballestero Barrutia, Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Moody's Ratings takes rating actions on eight Turkish corporates following upgrade of Turkiye sovereign ratingGovernment of Turkiye – B1 positive: Update following upgrade to B1, outlook remains positiveGovernment of Turkiye: Macro-financial monitor: CBRT tightening shows first results, but more is needed to moderate inflationMoody's Ratings upgrades Turkiye's ratings to B1, maintains positive outlookGovernment of Turkiye: Announced policy shift is credit positive but implementation comes with challenges

The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government’s ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too.Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Moody's Ratings downgrades Kenya's ratings to Caa1; maintains negative outlookGovernment of Kenya: Protests against Finance Bill's tax measures challenge government's fiscal consolidation strategyGovernment of Kenya: Kenya's IMF agreement bolsters short-term liquidity; fiscal consolidation is key to improving credit qualitySovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa: 2024 Outlook - Negative on large debt maturities amid tight funding conditions  

We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Emerging Markets – Global: GDP growth stays solid; disinflation slowsGlobal Macro Outlook 2024-25 (May 2024 update): G-20 momentum persists in 2024 with disinflation and cooler growth ahead

The creation of a coalition government following 29 May elections will likely support broad policy continuity and reforms, but the risk of government instability and ineffectiveness is significant.Guest: Aurelien Mali, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's RatingsRelated research:Government of South Africa: National unity government will likely support broad policy continuity and the pursuit of economic reforms  

Moody’s Ratings experts discuss the fragile recovery and new threats in EMs, including macro conditions, default trends, credit risks for sovereigns and corporates, and bright spots.Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Fragile recovery in EM credit conditions will continueEmerging Markets – Global: Local currency bond markets are growing fast, a credit-positive trend for debt issuersSovereigns – Emerging Markets: Favorable financing conditions will not solve structural credit challengesGovernment-Related Issuers – Emerging Markets: GRIs’ standalone credit strength and government support vary widely across EMsBanks – Emerging Markets: Asset-quality risk is receding but remains high in several countriesTo learn more, visit the Emerging Markets topic page.

Join Scott Phillips, head of EM at Moody’s Ratings, and Maciej Woznica, portfolio manager at asset management firm Coeli, for a tour of the least-developed emerging markets.Guest: Maciej Woznica, Portfolio Manager, CoeliHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Gradual recovery in emerging market credit conditions will continue (infographic)

The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s property market woes.Guest: Yang Liu, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Corporates – Emerging Markets: EM corporate default rate will fall further in 2024 and approach advanced economy rateDefault Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average

Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.Guests: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets, Moody’s RatingsRelated research:Tail risks from Israel-Iran conflict pose a major threat to sovereigns regionally and globallyIslamic finance sector will retain strong momentum in 2024Sukuk issuance to decline again in 2024 before stabilizing in 2025Strong US dollar sukuk issuance is positive for companies' capital raising effortsIslamic finance's adoption of blockchain could be beneficial, but faces crucial barriers

Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Moody's RatingsSpeaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings 

It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.Guest: Gong Cheng, Managing Director - Credit Strategy, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings

China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.Guests: Lillian Li, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Ruosha Li, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Ratings

Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.Speaker: Mickaël Gondrand, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.  Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:State-contingent debt instruments can aid debt restructuring, but can carry fiscal risks

Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.Hosts: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service

Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.Speakers: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Rehan Akbar, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Investors Service

Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director - Global Sovereign Risk - Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.Speakers: Rebecca Karnovitz, VP-SCO – ESG Research & Outreach at Moody’s Investors Service; Matt Kuchtyak, VP-Sustainable Finance at Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Natasha Brereton-Fukui, SVP-Global ESG Research at Moody’s Investors Service

EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated research:Federal Reserve on hold for longer implies slower pivot to policy easing for some EMs

This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt’s weakening credit quality.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Elisa Parisi-Capone, Vice President - Senior Analyst - Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Moody’s strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland’s election and India’s inclusion in an EM government bond index.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Steffen Dyck, Senior Vice President -- Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss the country-specific reasons inflation is slowing in emerging markets; why Mexico’s industrial production is increasing; and how Gabon’s coup factored into its outlook change.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Mickaël Gondrand, Analyst – Sovereigns, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode, Moody’s analysts discuss the reasons for the current property-sector stress and the potential effects for developers, banks that finance them, local authorities and the economy.Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss the growing use – and credit effect – of these transactions amid some sovereigns’ debt sustainability concerns and a need to invest in climate initiatives.Speakers: Thorsten Nestmann, Senior Vice President - Group Credit Officer, Sovereigns and Christopher Bredholt, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Public Project and Infrastructure Finance, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

BSI Fund Chief Investment Officer Kojo Amoo-Gottfried joins Emerging Markets Decoded to discuss emerging markets topics including the macro perspective and investor sentiment toward the asset class. Speaker: Kojo Amoo-Gottfried, Chief Investment Officer, BSI FundHosts: Scott Phillips, AMD – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investor’s Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.Speakers: Lillian Li, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jessie Tung, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss the credit effects of South Africa’s energy crisis, including macro and social implications, as well as the government’s plans to address the crisis.Speakers: Aurelien Mali, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Neil Griffiths-Lambeth, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss updates to long-term sovereign debt forecasts, accounting for recent market conditions, including higher inflation and interest rates.Speaker: Lucie Villa, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Frontier markets' debt sustainability at stake; political economy drives debt paths for some

Special guests Lee C. Buchheit and David Lubin share their insights on emerging market sovereign debt crises, the US dollar’s future as a global reserve currency, China’s evolving economy and more.Speakers: Lee C. Buchheit, Professor, University of Edinburgh; David Lubin, Head of EM Economics, Citi, Associate Fellow at Chatham HouseHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss India’s growing manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, favorable demographics and potential to achieve significant scale across multiple sectors in the next decade. Speaker: Kaustubh Chaubal, Senior Vice President – Corporate Finance, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated research:Growing industrial sector will drive economy, but may face investment hurdles

Moody’s analysts explore credit risks related to natural capital and biodiversity loss, why emerging markets are more at risk than advanced economies and which sectors are most exposed.Speakers: Lucia Lopez, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Rahul Ghosh, MD – Sustainable Finance, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Kelvin Dalrymple, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts explore credit risks related to the social contract, and how a weakening in the contract is often associated with credit deterioration in the countries where it takes place.Speakers: Elisa Parisi-Capone, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; David Rogovic, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody's analysts explore two downside scenarios to frame the likely impact of a US recession on EM corporates, combining lessons from past downturns with the many changes to the credit landscape in the years since.Speakers: Kelvin Dalrymple, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, AMD – Global Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts explore the key themes and policy issues likely to be at the center of the upcoming World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings, including banking turmoil, tightening credit, ESG and more.Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director – Sovereign Risk, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate decision and response to banking stress, recession risks and more. Speaker: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s AnalyticsHost: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody’s analysts discuss recent developments in the US and European banking systems, the implications for monetary policy and potential spillovers to emerging markets across the globe. Speakers: Donald Robertson, AMD – Financial Institutions, Moody’s Investors Service; Nick Hill, MD – Financial Institutions, Moody’s Investors Service; Eugene Tarzimanov, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Scott Phillips, AMD – Global Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service For related research, visit the Global Banking System Outlook topic page. As financial pressures mount in a time of higher rates and slowing growth, Moody’s will continue to share our analysis of evolving trends and repercussions for banks around the world.

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Nitish Bhojnagarwala of the Financial Institutions team and special guest Sohail Ali of DLA Piper join host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for Islamic finance across emerging markets. Plus, they dive into the intersection of ESG and Islamic finance, and the risks associated with “green” sukuk issuance. Related research:Islamic finance sector will remain resilient despite tight global financial conditions

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ighosime Oyofo and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team and Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team join host Scott Phillips to discuss the credit implications of Nigeria’s presidential elections, with a focus on the banking system and the sovereign. Related researchGovernment of Nigeria: Election disputes will delay policies to address Nigeria's pressing credit challengesNaira redesign policy creates some operational challenges for Nigerian banks

In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Scott Phillips of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss a recent turn of events for emerging market credit conditions, including some easing in financial conditions, with inflation, yields and spreads all lower than at the end of 2022, despite continued volatility. They explore what recent events mean for debt issuers in emerging and frontier economies and reveal which sovereigns are still at risk of default. Related Research:Tight financing conditions will continue challenging frontier markets' credit strength

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of political unrest in Peru, how it compares to recent events in Brazil and credit distress in Argentina. Plus, Valeria Azconegui of Moody’s Local shares insights from the ground.Related research:Government of Argentina: External market debt buyback amounts to a distressed exchangeGovernment of El Salvador: Second debt buyback amounts to a distressed e:xchange, small transaction amount illustrates liquidity stressGovernment of Brazil: Brazil's political polarization is credit negative

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian Fang and Alex Perjessy of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the outlook for sovereigns across the Middle East and North Africa. Plus, they explore how recent developments in Iran could affect the rest of the region.Related research:2023 outlook negative as inflation, high interest rates broadly raise credit risks2023 outlook positive as high oil prices bolster finances, provide space for reforms

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Gene Fang of the Sovereign team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for credit conditions in China as it lifts Covid restrictions and reopens its economy, with a special focus on regional and local governments, the property sector, as well as potential implications for other emerging markets. Related research:2023 outlook negative as debt, contingent liabilities build, land sales remain weakSustained slowdown in China will have large spillovers to the rest of APAC and beyondChina Property Focus: Supportive policies will take time to have an impact on sales