Shai Akabas, Executive Director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program, joins Kopi Time to discuss all things US fiscal. There is no silver lining in this conversation, the outlook is gloomy, period. We begin with the US fiscal position over the past 25 years, going from balanced budget to deficits of around 7% of GDP, from net debt/GDP of 35% to 100%. Shai walks us through the various unfunded tax cuts and emergency spending outlays, with no consensus on dealing with the ballooning fiscal obligations, that led to today’s situation. And the outlook, with funding for various entitlement programs getting stretched precisely when spending needs are rising due to aging, is even gloomier. Tax increases, even if not through policy but by better enforcement of current laws could help, but that requires a well-funded tax authority. Tariffs, as disruptive as they are to the global economy, make up for a tiny part of total revenues. Bold bipartisan legislation to deal with entitlements is long overdue. Spending more on interest costs than national defence or healthcare is simply not tenable for the medium term; reforms are needed urgently. Shai’s warnings are loud and clear; hopefully they are heeded at some point in this decade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Drew Thompson, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, brings his deep China and Taiwan expertise to Kopi Time. Taiwan stands at the crossroads of tech manufacturing excellence and geopolitical tension. How does its recent political developments look from the perspective of its local population, mainland China, and the US administration? How will its politics and economic policies evolve in the coming years? Beyond the superpowers, how is Taiwan’s relationship evolving vis-à-vis SE Asia, India, S Korea, and Japan? What are the risk scenarios ahead? Drew provides unvarnished perspectives and analysis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Writer and academic Alexander Capri returns to Kopi Time after nearly 5 years, but the issues we discussed then and now remain relevant, if not even more so. In this engaging chat, Alex walks us through the expanding notion of techno-nationalism, its impact on trade patterns and flows, and corporate strategies around geopolitical fragmentation. We touch upon the innovation race between China and the US, China’s digital belt-and-road strategy, and the trans-Atlantic tech alliance. We consider the implication of all this for South-East Asia, as well as India.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vasuki Shastry, Senior Advisor at Gatehouse Advisory Partners, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the decade-old “Make in India” initiative. From Production Linked Incentives (PLI) to splashy marketing campaigns, this has been a signature initiative by the Indian government under Prime Minister Modi. What has been the accomplishment of this effort to usher in a new era of manufacturing in India? Vasuki’s report card is blunt—"it has been a qualified failure.” We go through the data on investment, job creation, technology transfer, and competition to assess his claim. We also discuss India’s complex regional heterogeneity, centre-state relationship, women’s participation in the labour force, the ultra-competitiveness of China, the difficulty—and perhaps the futility—of building an entire home-grown electronics supply chain, and the pull from emerging manufacturing powerhouses like Vietnam. Vasuki would like to see three key improvements ahead to convince him that manufacturing value added would rise substantially in the coming years—(i) a level playing field for businesses, with no perception of favouritism, (ii) stability of regulation, particularly tax laws, and (iii) political cohesion between the states and centre. He may not be impressed with Make in India so far, but Vasuki sees it as “an honourable aspiration to retain.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jennifer Sciubba, PhD, President and CEO of Population Reference Bureau, joins Kopi Time to discuss the science and policy dimensions of demographics. She begins by explaining the various ways of looking at population projections, pointing out that for most cases in recent decades, forecasts have ended up erring on the side of higher fertility. With fertility surprising on the downside and life expectancy rising, there is an overwhelming dynamic of rising median age the population around the world. Aging is pervasive and largely impervious to policy intervention. As people get wealthier and more educated, they tend to have less children, period. However, very low fertility rates likely reveal something not quite right with a society, from anxiety about cost of raising a child to a lack of societal purpose. Nonetheless, Dr. Sciubba is not pessimistic about a future with many more older people than today. The key is to strive for a society that ages without remaining ageist. Lower productivity and subdued economic growth may well be inevitable, but that doesn’t need to come with a burdensome social construct. Accepting the forthcoming aging dynamic, building a dignified and resilient society with provisions for health, shelter, and requisite skills is the way to go.    You can watch Jennifer’s Ted talk for a shorter version of her views: The Truth About Human Population Decline | Jennifer D. Sciubba | TED - YouTube.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prakash Kannan, Chief Economist and Director of the Economics & Investment Strategy department at GIC, returns to Kopi Time to talk about evolving macro developments and implications for asset allocation. We cover it all in this discussion, from Fed outlook to EM resiliency, global liquidity to China policy, yen carry trade to gold, and how a portfolio suitable for the past decade is unlikely to bear similar fruit going forward. Lots of insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This conversation is about a flagship report on Southeast Asia’s outlook. Earlier this year, researchers from DBS, Angsana Council (backed by Monk’s Hill Ventures), and Bain & Company came together to query the drivers of regional economic performance in recent decades and the outlook for the coming decade. The work was done taking into account ongoing disruption from geopolitics, technology, and climate change. Charles Ormiston, founding partner of Bain and Company’s Southeast Asia business, and I talk about the motivation behind the report, our key findings, and strategy for the private and public sector in light of the report’s insights. Despite many headwinds, the next ten years offer plenty of exciting opportunities for the region. Hope that comes across through this engaging chat. Report link: outlook.angsanacouncil.org and Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34 (dbs.com.sg)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shekhar Aiyar, a Non-resident Fellow at Bruegel, on leave from the International Monetary Fund, joins Kopi Time to mount a substantive case for globalisation, a much-maligned  word in some circles these days. Sharing his cutting edge research, Shekhar refers to considerable empirical evidence to establish the gains from trade for various parts of the global economy over the past half century. He then shares findings on the cost of reversing the course, a process termed as geoeconomic fragmentation. We discuss how that is measured, the estimated costs, and the implication for international monetary system and the global financial safety net. We then move on to another strand of Shekhar’s research,  productivity spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment. Triangulating data from multiple sources, Shekhar and his co-authors have put together a large firm-level cross country panel dataset. Some of the findings from analysing that dataset are fascinating, from the modes of spillover to the differing results for emerging and industrial economies. This takes us to a discussion on industrial policies’ role in driving investment, and the various associated perils. Deep insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James Crabtree, distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a senior fellow at the Asia Society, returns to Kopi Time to shed light on this year of momentous elections. We delve right into the US, first by taking stock of the ongoing drama around Trump, Biden, and Harris. We then consider the scenario of a Trump re-election and the likely outcomes around a Trump defeat. James has thoughtful views on what a Trump 2.0 would mean for Asia, as well as the impact on US domestic policies. We then talk about US strategy on Asia, particularly China, under both Democrats and Republicans, and how that would evolve after the elections. James then offers commentaries on three other major election outcomes this year, in the UK, France, and India. Elections come and go, but hard economic and social challenges remain. James underscores these points astutely.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We discuss global payment trends with David Mann, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Mastercard. From experiential travel to business events, there has been a dramatic change in consumer preferences since the pandemic, with the rise in cost of living playing a key factor. We talk about the patterns picked up from Mastercard’s extensive data on transactions around the world. From shopping trends in Japan to tourism in South East Asia and India, as well as new fintech platforms and payment rails, David has a lot to share.   Link to Travel Trends 2024: https://www.mastercardservices.com/en/industries/travel/insights/travel-trends-2024-breaking-boundariesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mdm Kay Kuok, Chair of the Yale-NUS Governing BoardMembers of the Yale-NUS Governing BoardProfessor Aaron Thean, Deputy President (Academic Affairs) and Provost of NUSProfessor Joanne Roberts, President of Yale-NUS CollegeFamilies, Yale-NUS community, and FriendsAnd dear graduates,Most of you were the class of 2020 in high school, your graduations disrupted by a once in a century pandemic. Today, as the Yale-NUS graduating class of 2024, your lives are mercifully not disrupted. It would however be tone-deaf to not recognize that many graduates in the Middle-East, Ukraine, or the US, won’t be enjoying a commencement like yours this year.This is a heavy realisation as we traverse through life. Moments of celebrations and triumph for many are invariably juxtaposed with sorrow, loss, and sadness elsewhere. At your highest highs and lowest lows, know that there are others with a different luck of the draw.Graduates, recognising that life’s peaks and valleys are inevitable can be liberating. It underscores the line “nothing lasts forever.” I think it also makes us less self-complacent, less territorial and possessive, more humble, and open to experiencing the next, the other. And perhaps, along those lines, more open to experiments. I want to explore the wisdom of experiments in the rest of this talk.Experiments can be scientific or social, public or personal. You can experiment with a business plan, a critical query, a new diet, a different workout, or just see if hearing someone out could give us an insight not feasible within our experiences.Consider hanging out with students from different majors an experiment. During my graduate school days, that very experiment led me to my life partner. Reach out to those from different religions, political persuasion, culture, or lifestyle, and see if their company and proximity make our lives richer and more joyous. If our mutual humanity can transcend our differences. These are experiments for the rest of your lives. And they will matter more as you delve into higher studies or jobs.If you’re a scientist, your vocation is largely about testing hypothesis through experiments, but surely that’s not where it ends.America is an experiment. Singapore is an experiment. Yale-NUS has been an experiment.Every new idea’s worth is tested through experiments. Is it possible to send humans to the moon and back? Let’s experiment, let’s try. Is it possible to have a thriving, multicultural, multiracial society? Let’s experiment. If it fails, try again.Some pursuits can follow the path of Thomas Edison, noisy and full of stumbles, but at the end, marked by glorious achievements. To paraphrase him, he never failed, he just successfully found the numerous ways that the experiment would not work.Some experiments can be spectacularly successful over a short period of time, thanks to luck, serendipity, or a stroke of genius. I wish you have those, but I also know that for the most you, that will not be the case. My hope is in fact that you leave this campus with the grit necessary to follow Edison’s path, and don’t shy away from your dreams at the first, second, or even third roadblock.Your exceptionally fortunate time at the Yale-NUS, in my view, has been an experiment of a lifetime. You could have gone to so many other places, but aren’t you gratified that you came here? Reflecting on President Roberts’s words, this place has hopefully instilled in you the patience, perseverance, and sense of community critically needed to make a difference.This beautiful campus, these dedicated and brilliant faculty, and these amazing facilities have nourished your minds over the past four years. That experiment of liberal arts in the heart of Singapore has been a resounding success. You made that happen. The legacy of this institution will never fade. So, let’s embrace uncertainty, let’s stand up against the fear of failure, let’s move forward, secure in the conviction that your time here has provided you with the values and intellectual mettle to take on the world. We can write down an endless list of woes that afflict our planet; let them be your problems to solve. With your curiosity, empathy, and knowledge, let the experiments begin.   Congratulations Class of 2024!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We hear about the subject of the moment from Microsoft’s Asia head of business development, Zia Zaman. We begin with the question if the world has been transformed in a comparable manner in the past year and a half as the smartphone and Appstore revolution achieved during 2007/08. Zia argues the transformation has been similar in influencing corporate strategy and productivity enhancement potential. We discuss the unparalleled cost and investment associated with operationalising and commercialising Large Language Models. Zia walks us through multiple stages of tech introduction, adoption, and value creation, with most still in the pipeline for GenAI. We talk about the compute needs and carbon footprint of running GenAI models, and the role of regulation in balancing business and public interests. Finally, Zia talks about the depth and breadth of the relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft. Fascinating insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mitchell Presnick, a visiting fellow of practice at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, joins Kopi Time to bring much needed pragmatism to the China-US discourse. Mitch, researching the future of US- China commercial relations in the post-engagement era, is no China apologist. But his decades of doing business in China have given him a realistic view on where engagement and symbiosis make sense. We discuss Mich’s days building a business in China in the 1990s, the playbook he suggests to American businesses, and his take on US policy. Stressing that “de-risking does not mean decoupling,” Mitch wants the two nations to attain positive sum outcomes. May his views get amplified.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recorded in Jakarta, Kopi Time delves into Indonesia’s elections, domestic and foreign policy, investment environment, and economy with Kevin O'Rourke, Principle, PT Reformasi Information Services. Kevin’s team has provided independent political risk consultancy for many years, and he demonstrates his deep insights in this far-reaching conversation. We begin with the recently concluded elections, and what one can expect from President Prabowo’s administration, from balancing geopolitics to the nation’s aspiration to climb to a much higher level of income, prosperity, and welfare. Kevin provides sober-eyed assessment on the strategies announced so far. We discuss Indonesia’s democratic process, industrial policy, populist measures, fossil fuel industry, green transition potential, and the legacy of outgoing President Jokowi. Kevin’s take on Indonesia is by no means negative, but certainly cautious and couched with concerns informed by his scrutiny of this country’s ups and downs over two decades.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today’s episode subject is in response to popular demand. Whether at work or at home, concerns on cybersecurity are elevated to say the least. Nicolas Reys, Partner leading Control Risks’ Digital Risks Americas and Global Threat Intelligence practices, begins by going the three kinds of cyberthreats out there—state sponsored, ransomware, and “hactivism.” We then talk about the impact of recent geopolitical developments on the cybersecurity environment. Singapore’s population and firms continue to face cyberattacks, from scams to phishing, but Nic sees substantial awareness and policy guardrails available to mitigate risks here. We talk about frontier tech like GenAI and quantum computing, and their potential disrupting impact on cybersecurity. We end with Nic laying out the best practice corporate strategies to manage digital risks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Martin Mühleisen, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the state of multilateralism. He sees the recent IMF meetings marked by modest progress in securing greater funding for development and climate change, but much more remains to be done to give developing nations their requisite voice in global bodies.  On issues such as supply chain resiliency and domestic market protection, nations around the world are undertaking a variety of interventions, which may be understandable given the pandemic shock and geopolitics. Yet, they create risks for inflation, and add layers of inefficiency and distortion. Martin weighs in on US fiscal, Japan’s monetary policy, and Europe’s difficulties with the war in Ukraine and China-US friction. We round up the discussion with how to keep multilateral institutions like the IMF maintain their relevance in this multipolar world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We catch up in Washington DC with Dr. Alexis Crow, lead, Global Geopolitical Investing Practice, pwc. Recorded on the last day of the IMF-World Bank 2024 spring meetings, we go over the  key takeaways from our interactions with policy makers and analysts. From a mild upgrade in global growth forecasts to taking stock of the scarring of the pandemic, there was a sense of cautious optimism during the meetings. Ongoing geopolitical strife of course remained a shadow, and concerns were expressed on the impact of lingering high interest rates on various economies and markets. China-US tussle over economic overcapacity and industrial policy looks likely to intensify, although there has been a welcome rise in engagement between the world’s two largest economies. We also discuss the latest deliberations on AI, climate change, and sticky inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Henny Sender, after several decades of writing on international finance for the Finance Times and Wall Street Journal, presently runs Apsara Advisory, a New York-based consultancy. She joins Kopi Time to talk about her sense of the challenges facing the Chinese economy, especially the weakness in consumer sentiment. While recognising the wisdom behind self-reliance and trade openness, Henny flags several areas of concern, including property and stock market woes, as well as regulatory overhang. On Hong Kong, where she has lived for many years, Henny is blunt in her assessment. She sees substantial room available for the public sector to address affordable housing, an issue that is at the heart of the city’s competitiveness. On India, Henny sees a welcome rise in aspiration and optimism. She would however like to see more efforts to scale up manufacturing, address climate risks, and reduce protectionism for local industries.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Angela Mancini, Partner and Head of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis practice for Asia Pacific at Control Risks, returns to Kopi Time after four years. The issues haven’t changed that much in the interim—we talk about Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore’s elections and economic prospects, state of China-US friction in the context of business risks, and the domestic dynamics at play in the US. Angela provides astute insights and some prognostications as we cover an extensive ground, including the likely outcome of the US Presidential race. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bert Hofman, adjunct Professor at the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to comment on the National People’s Congress of China and the direction of policy in the coming years. We also talk about the property sector crisis, ways to revive business and consumer confidence, deflation risks, green transition, trade and tech war, and industrial policy. Bert also has interesting insights on the preference of the Chinese leadership in dealing with a Biden or Trump presidency. Worth a listen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome back Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, a fund management company with responsible investing at its core. In this chat, Munib talks about latest developments and trends in the world of climate impact investing, while pointing out a gap in the current scene. Munib sees many listed equity companies setting laudable goals to reduce emission, but lacking the “how" about achieving those goals. This is where the newly established Gigaton Coalition comes in. It is an investor-investee led expert management platform for decarbonization solutions. As the name suggests, it aims to deliver at least 1 gigaton of cumulus emissions savings over the next decade from publicly listed companies in Asia Pacific. We discuss how the coalition would work, what would motivate institutional investors and companies to join it, and where Munib sees the initiative standing at the end of 2025. This is real work for real change. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We explore the present state of digital payments, their impact and potential, and tech-enabled investment platforms with Caeser Sengupta, CEO and co-founder of Arta Finance. Previously, Caeser spent a number of years at Google as VP & GM of Payments & the Next Billion Users initiative. In this podcast, we begin by discussing the economic and social welfare benefits derived from the digital payments revolution of the past decade. Caeser walks us through the fundamental changes in the way business and commerce are conducted in Brazil, China, India, and elsewhere, thanks to the development in mobile payments and near-instantaneous settlements. We talk about the broader ecosystem, including the potential of super apps, safety/security, role of regulators, central bank digital money, and of course, crypto/blockchain. We then shift to Caeser’s ongoing foray into creating a platform for wealth management, with enhanced customer experience and capabilities. The intersection of digital literacy and financial literacy has still plenty of room for disruption and value creation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of intelligence on energy markets, returns to Kopi Time. She was with us in the early days of the podcast, when WTI futures was in negative territory, and then returned around the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, again, energy markets have no shortage of drama. Vandana begins by addressing various scenarios over the brewing tensions in the Red Sea, especially for shipping and oil price risk premium. She also details the perverse dynamics around Russia’s energy supplies and various unintended consequences. Beyond geopolitics, she looks at the rather underwhelming supply-demand fundamentals characterising energy markets. We then talk about the future of OPEC+, state of US Shale sector, and the medium term demand for fossil fuels against green transition. Vanda offers an astute blend of industry insights and the complex realities in place. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We do a US market wrap-up for 2023 and outlook for 2024 with our favourite strategist, Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. No stranger to Kopi Time, Sri is blunt and prescient in his views across asset classes, fiscal and monetary policies, politics, economic growth, and inflation. We discuss the various prevalent and potential sources of market volatility, direction of the US Fed and treasury, path for inflation, rate cuts, and eventual QE next year, and the outlook for credit markets. Sri worries about the health of the US bank and nonbank financial system as the economy slows. He is also quite clear about the distinction the markets make about US assets and US policy. In most countries, outlook for one determines the outlook for the other. But the US remains blessed with certain superpower and mega-market size privileges that allow it to avoid some of these issues, at least in the near term.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

South Asia has pockets of strong growth (Bangladesh and India), pockets of balance of payments difficulties (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), and an across the board underwhelming foreign investment picture. Dr. Franziska Ohnsorge, South Asia Chief Economist of the World Bank, ties these multiple threads from her vantage point. We discuss risks and manifestations of currency crisis in parts of South Asia and the assorted fiscal stress points. The region remains characterised by remittance from the diaspora, which tends to create an element of overheating in consumption. The region also collects very low taxes, without which the capacity of spend on growth critical areas remains limited. The rules around fiscal responsibility are also weak by international comparison. We then talk about two matters related to energy transition in South Asia. First is a study on ways to improve firm level productivity through introduction of energy saving practices, and the second is one on the encouraging returns from green jobs. We conclude by talking about the need for the region to become more trade friendly; there is no better way to have a competitive, productive, and upward trending economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a thoughtful discussion on maximising a company or economy’s growth potential while navigating geopolitical constraints. Charles Ormiston digs deep on Asia in this podcast. Charles, chair of the Angsana Council, a Singapore-based think tank focused on the growth potential of Southeast Asia, and former head of Bain Southeast Asia, argues that China/UK rivalry could force both nations to get out of their comfort zones and become more self-reliant, which in turn could help the rest of the world. Charles is not rosy-eyed about the current state of affairs, but his key insight on China’s progress is that it is the result of intense competition between provinces and businesses, fuelling innovation. At a broader level, he sees great power rivalry forcing further innovation on both sides. The conversation then veers toward China’s seismic push toward green transition and its various positive spillovers to the region. Charles walks us through Vietnam, the Philippines, and Singapore, offering cogent insights on their very different development models and prospects. We need to have Charles back for the rest of Southeast Asia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This couple is walking the talk on marine sustainability. Dirk Eichelberger is the CEO of Singapore Aquaculture Technologies; in other words, he runs a fish farm right here in Singapore. Lelya Eichelberger is launching Alghemy, a skincare product range that offers a proprietary ingredient while emphasizing clean, green, and blue beauty. We talk about the challenges and rewards of their entrepreneurial journeys, and how their goals and Singapore’s imperatives converge. Dirk walks us through the financial, ethical, and ESG factors that drive his fish farm, while Lelya talks about health-related scientific advances with sustainability considerations at the core. As Dirk points out, from securing partnership with the government and other interested parties, to scaling up, as well as commercialising the knowhow through a franchise model, there are many things one can do to increase the production and distribution of sustainable products. The roadmap is there.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global central bank heads and finance ministers gathered over the past week in Marrakech, Morocco for the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. The meetings’ overarching theme was an uneven global recovery from a multitude of shocks, ranging from pandemic to wars, prices to interest rates. There was also a cautiously constructive view that both the public sector and markets have proven to be more agile than feared to deal with frequently occurring shocks.  There was acceptance that a multitude of shocks have be confronted simultaneously. Post-pandemic scarring, wars, inflation, interest rate spikes, climate change, all need to be dealt with agility. Global resource base and tools to deal with polycrisis are being expanded. Climate change related support measures are still inadequate. Between-and-within country income gaps are widening due to the shocks and varying policy responses. Asia is slowing, but still making up about two-thirds of global growth. arts of Asia may benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation, but it’s a net loss for the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an atypical episode—the first time in Kopi Time we discuss the intersection of faith and economics. Dr. Tony Annett, a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Sustainable Development, Columbia University, and author of “Cathonomics: How Catholic Tradition Can Create a More Just Economy,” insists on moral principles as foundations of economics and finance. In this fascinating conversation, we explore the roots of our modern values and principles, going to back old scriptures and subsequent faith-based approaches. Dr. Annett questions the narrow rational actor approach of neoclassical economics, arguing that without concerns for a common good and social responsibility, solutions to inequality, climate change, and monopolistic practices will remain unattainable. Over the past couple of centuries, technological progress and organisational developments have led to astonishing material prosperity, but have we achieved meaningful progress? The call remains for a more sustainable and inclusive world; whether one has faith or not, that imperative is critical.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This podcast will be an indispensable resource for those have not read Chip War by Chris Miller, Professor at Tufts University. Chris explains, both in his award-winning book and in this conversation, the central role played by computer chips in today’s economy, society, and military. More critically, he points out various single nodes of vulnerability in the production process of these immensely complex products. Naturally, the conversation then veers toward China’s attempts to reach self-sufficiency in advanced tech, the myriad of sanctions getting in the way, and the various unexpected knock-on effects. Those who have read Chip War already will also find a lot in this podcast, as we discuss the latest products by Huawei, use of military tech in the Ukraine war, how Russia is managing its tech stack despite sanctions, and the state of advanced tech manufacturing the East Asia. Many don’t know that Chris’s core expertise includes Soviet history and modern Russia, so we conclude with his prognosis of the war in Ukraine and the path toward resolution. This was a gem of a chat.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to give his take on China-US relationship, the war in Ukraine and its many facets, and where Asean and India stand in all this. The ever erudite former career diplomat pulls no punches, pointing out poor national strategies, short-term oriented decision making, and hypocrisy on foreign and economic policy across industrialized economies.  He worries about US presidential elections next year, although he sees little course correction on US policy toward China, regardless of the outcome. The conflict in Ukraine, however, could be profoundly affected by the US election outcomes. Mr Mahbubani also weighs in on China’s geo-strategic response so far, room for cooperation on climate change, the expansion of Brics, and the outlook for Aaean.  We end with a a prognosis on Singapore. The transcript of this chat will be worth saving. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aurobindo Ghosh, Assistant Professor of Finance at the Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University, joins Kopi Time to talk about his longstanding research on inflation expectations and cost of living. He explains the decade-plus work,  done in conjunction with the Monetary Authority of Singapore and DBS Bank, to gauge inflation expectations among Singapore’s residents. Over the long term, survey results have held steady, reflecting well anchored inflation expectations, but they have been volatile in recent years, in line with global developments. How is the survey conducted; what methodological challenges do they throw up; what are the key insights from all these years’ of surveys; is there a difference between inflation expectations and cost of living perceptions? What are the policy implications? Prof Ghosh addresses all this and more on this topic of the moment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Eswar Prasad, Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the USD, China, cryptos, and CBDCs. We go over the state of the global financial system, the legacy of USD weaponisation, innovation in fintech, the state of cryptos, the potential of central bank digital currencies. Eswar’s book, The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance, offers a great sweep of the ongoing revolution in money and finance. This podcast is a teaser for his deep work.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Santiago Millán, Macro Strategist at Wellington Management, one of the largest asset managers in the world, joins Kopi Time to talk about China. Whether it is the macro outlook, space for further stimulus, policy stance, state of financial markets, regulatory framework, great power rivalry, tech war, green transition, or the overall investment thesis on the country, Santiago has nuanced insights to offer. His key point is to appreciate the complexities of a large, consequential, and rapidly evolving economy and society like China. Broad-brushed analysis almost always gets it wrong; we need to think deeply when it comes to China’s medium term direction, especially with respect to its undeniable role in global trade, technology, and movement of capital.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Helge Muenkel, Chief Sustainability Officer at DBS, responsible for developing the bank’s overarching sustainability framework, joins Kopi Time. We begin by talking about current state of climate finance, the magnitude of funding needed to carry out meaningful green transition, and the various source of funding in the pipeline. Helge walks us through the key pillars of climate finance, including bonds, blended finance, grants, and carbon credits. We talk about the thorny issue of just transition, along with the role of governments and corporates in this journey. We then dive into banks’ role in coal phase-out, an enormously complex issue. We end by considering the encouraging climate mitigation and finance related developments in the US, Europe, China, and Singapore.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mustafa Chowdhury, who has held senior positions at Voya Investments, Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns and Freddie Mac, brings his deep fixed income expertise to Kopi Time. We start with his takeaways from the debt ceiling drama, which Mustafa argues left President Biden the winner. He however remains unconvinced that a meaningful debt consolidation is likely in the coming years, given the ballooning expenditure needs ahead. He then offers his insights on the information content embedded in the deeply inverted yield curve, weighing on recession probability versus fixed income strategy of institutional investors. Mustafa believes that market pricing on inflation expectations is too sanguine, and a better gauge is consumer survey based expectation measures. Building on that, he expects sticky inflation and a “higher for longer” narrative for interest rates. Having said that, he is not uniformly bearish US fixed income, pointing out pockets of value in various products and strategies. Mustafa also weighs in on financial stability, systemwide liquidity, relative value, and portfolio allocation. Can’t-miss insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This series began right before the 2020 global pandemic, and at that time the idea was to record chats with thinkers I meet during my travels. I really doubt if I’d have a hundred episodes under that model of operation. But once the pandemic broke out, remote recording with guests all over the world became acceptable, and away we went. Now 100 episodes is a lot, and there have some really memorable ones. We have covered our bread and butter, global macro and markets, in 41 episodes, but we have gone way beyond that as well. Given the times we live in, we have had a dozen episodes on geopolitics, eight on tech and fintech, and a dozen on climate change, an issue close to my heart. Beyond that, we have covered banking, energy, metals, crypto, financial inclusion, health, science and innovation, gender, and wealth management. Quite the breadth, never a dull moment! In this episode, we review the top-10 most downloaded and viewed episodes on Kopi Time.  The number 1 in this ranking, in fact, has over 175k views and nearly 900 comments on youtube! Thanks to our listeners for their support and kind encouragement for this series.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kopi Time hits 100 episodes! Raghuram Rajan, Professor at the University of Chicago, former Governor, Reserve Bank of India (2013-16), former IMF Chief Economist (2003-06), returns to our podcast to talk about the risks building up in global finance and economy. We begin with duration mismatch risks causing a rise in vulnerability among banks and nonbank financial institutions in the US. Is this an inevitable result of the exceptional monetary accommodation of the past decade and a half, followed by some tightening? Why haven’t post-GFC regulations stemmed such risks from materialising? What are the indicators to watch going forward, and what can policy makers do at this point? What about the entire edifice of inflation targeting, and where do emerging market economies fit into all this? While this discussion focuses largely on financial sector stress and central banking, Professor Rajan also weighs in on the issue of sovereign debt restructuring that is badly needed for a number of developing countries, with critical roles to be played by creditor nations and multilateral organisations. Very few thinkers have been as prescient as Raghuram Rajan in capturing the fault lines in modern finance; it was a privilege to have him on the show in such momentous times.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University and Director, Institute for Transregional Study of the Contemporary Middle East, returns to Kopi Time. Recorded in New York City on April 15, the discussion begins with the war in Ukraine and the Middle East’s complex relationship with Russia. Prof Haykel then elaborates on China’s role in the region, especially the recent mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Ongoing strife in Israel is yet again adding tension to the region; Prof Haykel sheds light on the difficulty this poses to the region’s leaders. We go over Opec’s recent decision to cut production, which appears to be divergent from US interests. The region clearly has a lot going on as it manoeuvres through domestic development imperatives and brewing great power rivalry. Prof Haykel also gives a preview of his forthcoming book on contemporary changes in Saudi Arabia, which we’re sure will be a must-read.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prem Bhatia, co-founder of Graas, a tech solution provider for e-commerce, joins Kopi Time to talk about the direction of data driven e-commerce and issues facing start-ups at the current macro backdrop. He draws on his decades-long experience as an entrepreneur and investor to make the case for data and artificial intelligence-driven solutions in the fragmented ecommerce markets in India and South-East Asia. He recognises the dark clouds looming as market correction and banking sector difficulties translate into substantially higher cost of early stage capital. Consequently, growth above all has been replaced by a welcome focus on profitable growth. At the same time, Prem remains encouraged by the wide range of promising ideas and solutions percolating around the region. He is keen to press the idea that innovation requires capital looking for both value and growth. Current selloff and higher cost of capital may well differentiate and lift up some of the best companies in the region. He considers the convergence of e-commerce and advertisement, catalysed by data analytics, as a major, consequential trend. We then discuss the present and future of data privacy, regulation, Tik Tok, and generative/predictive AI. Final word: “the ability to increase productivity is what AI delivers... AI will kill process managers by automating process management.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I sat down with former Finance Minister of Indonesia, Chatib Basri, at the DBS Indonesia Asian Insights Forum 2023, held on March 15. During the conversation, Mr. Basri provided a brief presentation about the outlook for Indonesia in the context of global macroeconomic developments. He explained the Indonesian economy’s middle path, neither high- nor low-single digit growth, by taking into account resilient domestic demand and still-positive commodity exports outlook. Consequently, when there are global headwinds, Indonesia tends to outperform due to its low-beta nature. The flipside is during a global upswing, Indonesia tends to underperform. On climate change and green financing, Mr. Basri underscored the daunting challenges ahead, along with the massive domestic/external and private/public/multilateral financing needed.  Removing fossil fuel subsidy is key, despite the political impediments. He then expanded on the possible opportunities for regional trade and manufacturing around China-US tension. Asean has to be united in setting rules for trade or commerce while dealing with China-US tension. We then have a back and forth on the investment environment, need for a balance between industrial policy and private sector incentives, the importance of the services sector, e-commerce, techno-nationalism, 2024 elections and the economic impact of campaign finance, strength of Indonesia’s financial system in light of global market selloff, and the role of regulatory policy to deal with that. Final word from Mr. Basri: “Investing in Indonesia is very dangerous, because it is very addictive.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Greg Wells, Chief Operating Officer of TIGER 21, a peer membership organisation for high-net-worth wealth individuals, joins Kopi Time. He provides an overview of this collective (minimum member wealth of USD100mn), in which members learn from one-another the risks and opportunities worldwide. An internally transparent and yet confidential organisational structure brings together 1200+ wealth creators for networking and learning. We then explore the genesis of TIGER 21 and its area of operation. Greg walks us through the membership process, the commitments members make, what one gets and contributes in the organisation, and the “portfolio defense” approach. Underlying the nitty gritty of wealth preservation and legacy planning is the desire to make a mark, to grow, and to belong in a community. Rather universal.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shaokai Fan returns to Kopi Time to talk about gold’s recent journey through inflation spike, war in Ukraine, weaponization of the USD, monetary policy tightening, and soaring interest rates. We talk about supply conditions, ongoing reforms to add greater transparency and sustainability, and the structure of the gold market. Shaokai then sheds light on the evolving nature of gold demand, both cyclical, as China and India come out of the pandemic, and structural, as individuals and financial institutions consider gold as a geopolitical hedge. Immensely fascinating.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, International Monetary Fund, breaks down the prospects for the region. We begin by talking about the coverage of the department, which is 37 countries, making up of half the world’s population. We then dive into the 2023 balance of risks, which the IMF sees still tilted to the downside, but with a welcome decline in adverse risks. On the upside, Krishna expresses optimism about post-pandemic re-opening helping demand, while headline inflation softens at a pace faster than previously envisaged. On the downside, concerns remain about Russia’s war in Ukraine, tighter global financing costs, various distortions posed by forces of deglobalisation, and lingering uncertainties around inflation. We then do a tour of Asia, starting with the two countries that are under IMF programs, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Krishna explains that state of macroeconomic affairs and the lending facilities being deployed in both cases. In this context, he also elaborates on the IMF’s new Resilience and Sustainability Trust. After this, we take on, one by one, the challenges and promises of Japan, China, India, Indonesia, and Singapore. We cover it all--inflation, debt, monetary policy, property markets, corporate governance, human capital, and deglobalisation. A thorough macro health-check of Asia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bert Hofman, Director of the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore and former World Bank Country Director for China (2014-19), provides a sweeping overview of China’s outlook and key risks ahead.  We begin with several nuances to the evolution of China’s zero-Covid policy and economic policies in the near term. Bert then offers insights into the property sector, and fiscal-structural policies that are likely to be deployed to deal its debt overhang.    In his professional role, Bert devotes considerable time analysing China’s fiscal position and reforms outlook; here he walks us through tax reforms and spending imperatives that are in the pipeline. We then move on to tech sector regulation, green transition policies and strategies, and the legacy of the Belt and Road initiative. We end our wide ranging conversation with some reflections on the direction and unintended consequences of the rivalry between China and the US. A must-listen for China observers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to 2023, dear Kopi Time followers! We kick off the new year with a chat on markets with seasoned trader and strategist, Archana Parekh, head of Asia Equities, ex-Japan, Balyasny Asset Management. We begin the discussion on the inevitability of market selloff in 2022, dragged by rates increases and lofty valuations. Archana does not think the highly correlated selloff across asset classes reflected much more than the fact that during the run-up in recent years, all asset classes had rallied with high correlation as well. We then talk about her broadly constructive outlook for equities in 2023, around Fed policy pause, China re-opening, and a fairly stable energy market. Yet, Archana does not see a major bull market ahead, given the numerous macro, geopolitical, and regulatory uncertainties in place. We then drill down to US tech, China tech, and Japan tech, each with their potential upside and idiosyncratic risks. We touch on frontier technologies and innovations, going over opportunities around them. Archana then weighs in on the age-old question of active versus passive investing, pointing out that one approach does not fill all investors. We conclude by talking about women in finance, something she supports passionately. Her inclination to look at opportunities calmly and constructively, even as big picture challenges mount, is heartening.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Caution: You may need a strong cup of Kopi after listening to our year-ending podcast with Dr. Nouriel Roubini, an economist and market analyst, who famously called the severity of the sub-prime crisis back in 2008 and has been warning about the fragility of the crypto ecosystem in recent years.  But it is essential listening, as a recent review of his book, MegaThreats, points out: “Roubini’s warnings may be alarmingly scary, but they are also disturbingly plausible” (John Thornhill, Financial Times). We begin with his sobering assessment of the near term outlook, with recession risks rising in the UK and Europe, with the US not far behind, along with China with its struggles to reopen the economy. Nouriel does not see inflation easing sufficiently in the near term, and envisages an era of “great stagflation” in the coming years. His rationale for structurally higher inflation is wide ranging, from the impact of deglobalisation to aging, along with green transition and populism.  He also sees a looming debt crisis like no other, with the US, Europe, and China already overleveraged, teetering on the brink of cascading defaults and financial market contagion. He fears fiscal and monetary policy errors, great power rivalry, pandemic, climate change, cyber warfare, and financial instability holding back growth and prosperity in the coming decades, unless technological advances and welfare enhancing policies offset those headwinds. Nouriel worries that the period of global prosperity enjoyed since the end of the second world war is coming to an end; let’s hope he is wrong, but let’s also heed his warnings.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, joins Kopi Time to discuss the economic dimensions of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. We begin by going over Ukraine’s economic size and structure, followed by the depth of the economic and societal damage inflicted by this conflict. We then talk about the massive short- and medium-term funding needs for Ukraine’s sustainability and rebuilding. Dr. Becker’s institute has been exploring the various dimensions of funding Ukraine, from the appropriate distribution channels to governance concerns; he elaborates on them. We move on to the impact of sanctions and potential oil price cap on Russia. We then go over the economics of sanction and the state of Europe’s energy supply and policy response for this winter. As the most significant global security event of 2022, it is fitting that we conclude with Dr. Becker’s outlook for this conflict in 2023.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This podcast was recorded in early November, on the sidelines of the Singapore Fintech Festival 2022. It was fitting in the spirit of the event to have Stuart Haber join Kopi Time. Dr Haber, along with Scott Stornetta, co-invented the blockchain technique in 1990, which was later adopted by Satoshi Nakamoto as the basic mechanism for data integrity in Bitcoin. We begin the conversation travelling back over three decades, to understand the problem and motivation that drove Haber and Stornetta toward the blockchain. It is clear even as young coders and crypographers, their ambition was high and their goal was to have transformative and lasting impact on the way civilisation’s records are stored. We then talk about the seminal moment in 2008, when the Satoshi white paper came out, and Dr Haber’s take on it then (and now). We tackle the questions of a crypto bubble, Bitcoin’s adverse environmental impact (and possible solutions around it), proliferation of tech solutions looking for a problem, and the applications that appeal to him. Dr. Haber talks about his current research, and takes on my question on the potential impact of quantum computing on cryptograhy-based record authentication. A brilliant mind with outstanding insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Lynn Loo, Professor in Engineering at Princeton University and head of Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) in Singapore, joins Kopi Time to talk about international shipping’s transition to a low-/zero-carbon future. Shipping accounts for 90% of global trade and is the sixth largest carbon emitter as a sector, hence the stakes are high. Dr Loo talks about the targets in place at the international level, as well as the current and frontier technologies that can take us toward zero-emission shipping in the long-term. We then move on to the issue carbon capture, which is tantalising in potential, but also comes with thorny issues like cost, storage, and disposal. We discuss the role of carbon taxes and broader regulations in facilitating green transition, some of the promising pilots and studies undertaken by GCMD (Biofuel, ammonia bunkering, retrofit solutions, and wind-assisted propulsion). We end with Dr. Loo’s pragmatic vision of a multi-fuel future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This 10-minute commentary summarises my key impressions from the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC. Held amid the background of rising interest rates, currency market volatility, developing country debt distress, great power rivalry, war in Ukraine, and risk of financial instability, the mood was largely grim during the meetings. Silver linings include relative resiliency of large emerging market economies, strong push for infrastructure investment, and an energised climate change agenda. But above all, it was about the US. The US society may have internal chasms, and some of its political institutions and processes may have weakened in recent years, but as far as the rest of the world is concerned, US monetary and financial market policy, US demand, US industrial policy, and US sanctions loom above just about all other considerations. To me, US assertiveness characterised these meetings.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Marsh, Chairperson of Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) joins Kopi Time to go over the UK’s recent bout with extraordinary currency and rates volatility. Mincing no words, David provides a strong critique of the policy choices and communications that have pushed the UK economy on weak footing, leaving it vulnerable to financial stability risks. We talk about past cases of devaluation (especially the 1992 Sterling crisis that David has written about extensively) and consider the parallels and lessons. We then discuss the myriad of risks hovering over Europe, from war to energy insecurity to debt overhang among the peripheral economies. David has a sobering outlook for the global economy, with recession looming and global coordination largely absent. Not many silver linings, other than lessons learnt.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ila Patnaik, Chief Economist, Aditya Birla Group, joins Kopi Time to discuss a number of pertinent aspects of India’s economy. We talk about the current macro situation in the face of rising interest rates and tensions in the currency market. We then move on to India’s somewhat restrained policy response during the pandemic, and the expedited embrace of digital payments and service delivery. Ila is a realist on the frictional cost of economic formalisation, recognising that there will be losers. The challenge then becomes to ensure a minimal safety net for those being left behind. She is optimistic about the investment outlook but also cautious about absorptive capacity. From her perspective, 3-4% of GDP worth of FDI is fine, but more than that would be problematic to manage. We then discuss the state of financial sector reform, something Ila has been involved with for over a decade. We move on to discuss Ila’s book, co-written with union minister Bhupender Yadav, The Rise of the BJP: The Making of the World's Largest Political Party, which examines the politics of welfare payments. Ila points out the benefits that come from corruption-free, efficient social service delivery and frequent social audits, which is a valuable lesson for modern democratic parties. We end with Ila’s vision for India, which is highly promising to her due to a massive demographic advantage. This key to maintain a well-educated, healthy, and aspirational population.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thewokesalaryman handle on Instagram has over 357k followers; on Telegram, it has nearly 37k subscribers. It is a highly popular social media platform on financial literacy, using original, witty cartoons to impart critical life lessons on career building, savings, investment, and just living worthy lives. He Ruiming and Goh Wei Choon, the creators, join Kopi Time to share their motivation, content generating process, the feedback loop between posting and follower response, their financial model, and the way forward. With a strong sense of the pulse of Singapore’s Gen Z population and beyond, Ruiming and Wei Choon are making truly valuable contribution to the overall well-being of the society.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the fast growing world of climate investing. We go over the realities of climate change hitting home, numerous changes in the regulatory environment globally, and the deepening zeitgeist around investments in the context of climate mitigation. We then get into the thorny issue of how to deal with climate sceptics, including the dialogue around just transition. Munib then looks at various market failures, issues related to the term ESG and carbon pricing, Asia’s role in climate change and related investments, and financial returns coming from decarbonisation. Tons of inspirational takeaways for those feeling gloomy about our planet’s future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carin Smaller, Executive Director of the Shamba Centre for Food & Climate, joins Kopi Time to talk about global food security. As per the United Nations, after three decades of steady decline, the number of people who suffer from hunger began to increase again in 2015. Current estimates show that nearly 690 million people are hungry, or 8.9 percent of the world population. Compounding this trend is the high frequency incidences of natural disasters, pandemics, and wars that are pushing millions more into hunger. If recent trends continue, the number of people affected by hunger would surpass 840 million by 2030.   Ms Smaller begins by going over the state of global food security for the remainder of this year and 2023, both with respect to the price and availability. She then sheds light on the various dimensions of structural food security, touching on income inequality, climate change, distributional bottlenecks, and insufficient global coordination. But there is some glimmer of hope, with initiatives like Ceres 2030 estimating the funds and work required to end global hunger by the end of this decade, galvanizing official donors, private philanthropies, and multilateral organisations. We go over promising technologies, recent developments in global trade rules, and state of resource mobilisation that reflect some degree of resolve to deal with this crisis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robert Dekle, Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California, joins Kopi Time. Robert’s speciality is Japan, so we start there, going over his views on the yen’s rapid depreciation this year and the sustainability of yield curve control going forward. Robert thinks that there may still be some time left for BoJ to stay with its ultra-easy monetary policy stance, but the clock is ticking. For the longer-term, aging creates formidable headwind with respect to Japan’s domestic economic outlook, which is a major cautionary lesson for other parts of the world that are experiencing an adverse demographic shift. We then talk about the idea that aging and accompanying shrinking of the labour force could cause structural inflation. Robert thinks that between automation and the contribution from countries like India and Vietnam to the global labour pool, this fear may be overstated. We then move on to the US, talking about inflation. Robert sees a fairly long runway left for policy tightening, but also not a full resolution to the elevated inflation issue, with 2% inflation not being secured before 2025. The main reason for this, in Robert’s view, is that US fiscal/monetary policies will not become draconian enough. Robert sees high mortgage rates begin to cool the housing market, and some decline in pump prices being helpful, but worries about sticky food prices. He sees a US dollar peak around the corner as growth slowdown ensues, but at the same time sees lingering risk for emerging markets from high US rates and still-strong USD. We round up our discussion with inflation in the context of climate change and globalisation.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Serey Chea, Assistant Governor at the National Bank of Cambodia, joins to Kopi Time to provide an incisive view on central banking geared toward financial development and inclusion. She talks about the government’s role during the pandemic to support the population through a series of financial measures, including the tricky job of keeping ATMs going even as banknote sourcing faced global mobility restrictions. We then delve into Bakong, a blockchain-based peer to peer payment system for financial sector participants in Cambodia. Ms Chea talks about the genesis, use case, outcome, challenges, and potential with clarity and depth, flagging ideas that would be useful for many developing economies. She adds a human dimension to central banking by referring to her personal experience in seeing people struggle with lack of financial inclusion or financial literacy. Truly inspirational.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ms. Grace Fu, Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, joins Kopi Time to go over the nation’s challenges and response regarding sustainability and climate. She lays out, in sobering detail, the issues associated with recalibrating the entire economy for green transition, with heightened focus on energy and food security. While cognizant of the steep hill to climb toward a mid-century net zero goal, Minister Fu is constructive about the work being done with public-private coordination and cooperation, as well as the myriad of financial and technological solutions available and under development. We go over Singapore’s plans for carbon tax, greening of the energy grid and overall infrastructure, the exciting area of urban agri tech, and the ongoing changes in global regulatory environment for decarbonisation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Substantial trade linkage notwithstanding, Asean’s near-term outlook is not particularly vulnerable to the ongoing slowdown in China . Asia faces many macro risks, but a slowing China in not at the top of the list. Global inflation threat is a non-China factor Chinese tourists have been largely non-existent since 2020, hence there is no additional downside. Asean’s trade with China is a global demand beta that can withstand a domestic demand slowdown. US interest rates, global capital flows, and food/fuel prices matter more for Asean. Full commentary and analysis available here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Barry Eichengreen, professor at University of California at Berkeley, a foremost expert on economics and international finance, joins Kopi Time. We begin with the war in Ukraine, where he is calling for rebuilding to begin even before the conflict is over, led by a consortium that supersedes multilateral institutions like the IMF/World Bank. We also delve into the demonstration effect of the sanctions imposed on Russia on other potential antagonists. In relation to that, the reach and scope of the weaponisation of the USD is discussed. We then move on to the issues of the moment, global inflation spike direction of Fed policy, recession risks, and debt overhang, with an interlude on digital currencies. A tour de force.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CL Lien, avid mountaineer and ultra-marathon runner, and Singapore General Manager of Gojek, an e-services platform, joins Kopi Time to discuss managing the business through a wide range of challenges and disruptions. We talk about the driver-partner model and the various dimensions around that. Lien sheds light on how Gojek managed through the pandemic and how the business is shaping up presently, especially in light of rising fuel prices and interest rates. We touch on the imperative to find green solutions to transportation and logistics, and the balance between embracing innovation and automating jobs away. Lien brings empathy and social realism to decision-making and strategy, a great leadership trait.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our guest to mark Kopi Time’s 75th episode is Tan Su Shan, Group Head of Institutional Banking at DBS. In a wide ranging chat, we talk about how her business is dealing with the various challenges associated with the conflict in Ukraine and the pandemic. Su Shan walks us through the approaches to managing credit risk and emergency measures deployed in these contexts. We then delve into the role of data and digitalisation in transforming banking and finance, especially in helping clients keep pace with a range of disruptions. We then talk about stakeholder accountability and green finance, especially the role technology can play in the latter. The looming topic of rising inflation and interest rates is discussed next, with the balance between rising rates helping the bottom line initially, but then those higher rates also manifesting in higher credit risks. Su Shan recognises that to deal with unavoidable complexity and volatility, the key is to have an agile team that thrives on open communication. It is this trust in her team that makes her optimistic about her business outlook.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sol Magaz, Partner, Life Sciences and Healthcare in EY, joins Kopi Time to discuss her area of expertise. We begin by discussing  how the sector reacted and adjusted to the pandemic, both in the West and here in Asia. Sol explains the disruptions and innovations through the use of advanced data analytics and practices that allowed for vaccines and therapeutics to be developed in record time. We focus on the digital legacy of this crisis, whether it is through tele-diagnostics or tele-therapeutics, or through synthetic trials. We then talk about other mega trends in the industry and the role of Asian countries in the global innovation space. We touch upon the leap-frog aspect of digital transformation in healthcare, where people in rural areas can get access to healthcare through their smartphones, care that was previously only provided when and if hospitals were built nearby. We end by discussing the soaring cost of healthcare and ways to address them from public and private angles. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Manik Bhandari, CEO and Founder of Vulcan AI, an Artificial Intelligence company that focuses on building safety and productivity solutions, joins Kopi Time. He begins by providing an overview of the tech start-up scene in Singapore, describing how the public sector, through various initiatives, nudges entrepreneurs to develop profitable solutions that are good for the society. Manik’s firm’s focus is on deploying the power of big data and artificial intelligence in agriculture, transportation, workplace safety, elder care, etc. These are areas with room for innovation, but also entail deep ethical considerations on the line between profit and good. He offers his insights on the local talent pool, the best way to enhance tech skills, and the way entrepreneurs should use Singapore’s ecosystem as a launching pad for expanding in the region or globally. Manik points out that tech does not only mean coding and engineering, with numerous high value added jobs that require a much wider range of soft and hard skills. It’s a call to action to tech immersion, but with an ethical lens. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vandana Hari, Founder & CEO of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of global oil markets macro-analysis, returns to Kopi Time to shed light on the extraordinary volatility in the energy markets. She covers it all, from the current supply/demand dynamic to Russia’s role in the energy markets, from alternative source of supply to the various logistical and geopolitical constraints at play, the near term outlook, which is grim, and the legacy of this crisis. Critical insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jonah Blank, senior visiting research fellow with the National University of Singapore, and formerly South and Southeast Asia Policy Director for Joe Biden in the US Senate, joins Kopi Time for a deep dive on contemporary geopolitics. We devote the first half of the podcast on Ukraine, spanning Putin’s motivation, risk of regional spillover, impact of sanctions, and possible end-game scenarios. Jonah makes astute observations on the complexities and historical context at play, while acknowledging the exceptional uncertainty that lies ahead. We then move on to Russia-China matters, including the intersection of strategic interests and cooperation on payments and energy/commodity trade. Jonah then offers a somewhat inside-the-beltway perspective on competition/rivalry between China and the US. We conclude by North and South East Asia’s dilemmas in this context.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Razeen Sally, Associate Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, joins Kopi Time to discuss trends in regional and global trade. We begin with the latest on RCEP and CP-TPP, with emphasis on the key gainers, the gaps in the agreements, role of China and the US, and the potential impact on the region. Prof Sally points out that CP-TPP is a true 21st century deal, covering critical topics such as data, intellectual property, and services, but its outlook is hazy with the US political environment not being conducive to trade deals. In contrast, RCEP may have less teeth, but it is more likely to be implemented. We then move on to the geopolitical and internal considerations for the US and China on matters of free trade and open markets. We discuss new mercantilism, Singapore’s role as a global city in the years of geopolitical struggle ahead, and the various associated scenarios. Plenty of food for thought. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark Sobel, US chairman at Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) and former US Treasury deputy assistant secretary for international monetary and financial policy, returns to Kopi Time for a deep dive into global macro and international finance. We begin by going over the US, from the present state of the economy to Fed policy, risk of inflation and aggressive policy, and the outlook for further fiscal effort. Mark has a broadly glass half-full perspective on these matters. We touch on the Biden administration’s take on global trade, on which Mark focuses on the shift in tone between this and the previous administration. We then move on to his recent article, provocatively titled “German and Chinese growth models are outdated.” Mark feels that the economies of Germany and China, short of new growth models, will continue to slow down, dragging the rest of the world with them. We conclude by discussing the IMF’s mandate and focus in the period ahead. Chock-full of insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This episode takes its cue from a couple of riveting conversations I’ve had with Saurabh Jain, founder of Connexio, a provider of human capital services to organisations across Asia, focusing on the startup ecosystem. From each of those conversations, I have come away from the feeling that something really interesting is going on in one particular area of Saurabh’s focus - India. The country’s scale, entrepreneurial tradition and problem solving culture, and the current global juncture of where markets and geopolitics stand, make the start-up proposition in India a compelling one. We talk about the supply, demand, idiosyncrasy, and depth of skill in india's tech start-up talent pool, and the disruption brought in by the pandemic. We go over the key sectors going through disruption, ranging from education to health to agriculture to commerce. We also talk about the risks in the horizon, especially as the era of cheap money comes to an end. Saurabh’s two key risk factors for any company are hubris and inadequate internal control. Words to live by.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We called our 2021 outlook A Bifurcated World, and the year lived up to that thesis. The global recovery has been extraordinarily uneven, from vaccine distribution to the impact of the sharp rally in asset markets, both of which have favoured the wealthy, not to mention fiscal and monetary support, which again have been the most supportive in nations with the most wherewithal.  A globally coordinated approach to distribute medical equipment and vaccines on the one hand, financial support on the other hand, would have hastened the duration of the pandemic and softened its blow to livelihoods, but that didn’t happen, unfortunately and predictably. Our 2022 outlook is titled Testing the Guardrails. The bifurcated world, after delays and missteps, has built of some guardrails. Vaccine production is up and distribution is becoming more even. Economies are opening up with vaccinated travel lanes. Strong demand for manufactured goods and commodities is helping the emerging economies that export them. Funds and facilities for short-term challenges like debt repayment and buying medical equipment, and for long-term challenges like transition to renewable fuels, are becoming increasingly available. Against this context, what are the key risks? What are the sliver linings? Listen to our year-ending commentary as we discuss inflation, Fed, global debt, pandemic, and emerging markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Danny Quah. Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics and Dean at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, joins Kopi Time. A scholar whose focus ranges from inequality to income mobility, international systems of trade and finance to world order among superpowers, Prof Quah underscores the importance of building greater resilience to pandemic, climate change, and technology waves. He also cares about social cohesion, without which even wealthy societies can stumble. Prof Quah combines the need for resilience and social cohesion in the metaphor of trampoline, a system that can take inevitable shocks and knocks but can bounce back readily.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome Martin Mühleisen, who until last year ran the International Monetary Fund’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. In a frank and wide ranging discussion, Martin assesses the global policy response to the pandemic, its seismic scale, impact, and potential costs. He considers our two generational challenges, inequality and climate change, and mulls over the political and macro cyclical dimensions of fighting these two trends. Martin is wary of multilateral over-reach, especially in the context of the IMF. He is also worried about likely sovereign debt restructurings ahead among some developing economies, and the issue of involving China, which has become a large creditor to these nations in recent years. Martin remains optimistic that the medium term outlook can benefit from more dispersion of technology, along with measures to assist the population through the disruptive aspects of technology and climate transition.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neeraj Seth, Managing Director and Head of Asian Fixed Income at BlackRock, joins to Kopi Time to talk about rates and credit outlook in the US, China, and rest of Asia. We begin with an overview of the current slowing-growth-firming-inflation dynamic, which Neeraj finds not alarming given the lingering strength in demand, and the supply side nature of production disruptions and inflation. He also thinks the US credit/rates space is likely to remain supported in 2022 even around a Fed taper window. We then move on to China; Neeraj details his views on credit market stress, rregulatory tightening, power shortage, supply side disruption, common prosperity, policy outlook, and the value in various fixed income assets. We also discuss the shock absorptive capacity of China’s financial sector. We then move on to the rest of the region, going over the markets of India, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. Neeraj’s wealth of experience in managing regional assets makes his views particularly worthwhile to listen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Ilan Goldfajn, former Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil (2016-19) and presently Chairman of the Board, Credit Suisse Brazil, joins Kopi Time to share his deep expertise on economic policy making and financial markets. We begin by talking about the policy space available in EM and DM to deal with the soaring cost of the pandemic. Ilan then shares his view on the social, political, and institutional dimensions of the cycle in Latin America. He proceeds to offer his views on the global inflation situation, and how temporary and permanent inflation outcomes can weigh on policy credibility, exchange rates, and markets. We discuss the US in depth, especially with regard to the merits and pitfalls of average inflation targeting and the limits of fiscal policy. Ilan will take over the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department in January of 2022; it will be a fitting return to a place where he worked more than two decades ago.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Paul Hiebert, head of Systemic Risk & Financial Institutions Division at European Central Bank, returns to Kopi Time to talk about ECB’s views on financial stability. We go over the pandemic’s impact on the financial system, interest rate sensitivity of various sectors, corporate solvency risks, and household balance sheets. We then move on to longer dated risks, of which climate change is the one that looms the largest. Paul shares with us the findings on measuring and modelling climate change impacts for the European Union, exposure mapping, data and methodological challenges, and the need to deal with greenwashing. From companies to global regulators, the intersection of climate change and financial stability has forced a steep learning curve; Paul underscores that much has been done, but a lot more remains to be accomplished. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Ma Jun wears many hats. The former PBOC Chief Economist is now the President of Institute of Finance and Sustainability in Beijing, Chairman of China Green Finance Committee, Special Advisor to PBOC Governor, Co-Chair of G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group, and Co-Chair of Steering Committee of Green Investment Principles for the Belt & Road. He begins with a startling figure: by his estimates, China would need to invest resources amounting to 10% of GDP every year for the next four decades to achieve the 2060 net zero target. The green financing requirements, economic restructuring imperative, along with systems of emission trading, risk assessment, and governance standards needed would be profoundly transformative for the Chinese economy, and by extension, for the world. Jun highlights key initiatives in place, areas where China is working together with the US, Asian economies, as well as multilaterally, and expresses his optimism that tangible progress lies ahead. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On a recent beautiful afternoon, in the island of Sentosa, Sopnendu Mohanty, Chief Fintech Officer, Monetary Authority of Singapore, joined Kopi Time to go over the nation’s burgeoning FinTech sector. He begins the conversation by noting that Singapore’s relatively small market size paved the way for numerous innovations in the area of business-to-business fintech: “Constraint brings new opportunity.” He then goes over Singapore’s journey of developing fin-tech relevant human capital, raising growth capital, fostering community capital, and entrenching trust capital over the past half-decade.  The journey has also entailed major regulatory developments, sand-box experiments, and collaboration with key multilateral official sector institutions as well as various private sector entities. Project Ubin-Partior, Proxtera for SMEs, and APIX are examples of the pragmatic and business-oriented developments nurtured by the regulators. Foundational public goods such as digital identity, trusted data exchange, interoperable payment systems, and consent architecture have been developed, paving the way for innovation in domestic and cross-border payments, fundamentally changing the cost, speed, and security of such transactions. Sopnendu talks about the application of CBDCs, and why such currencies have better use case for a developing country than a developed one. He then elaborates on the digital transformation challenges faced by SMEs, and how MAS is helping address them. On the issue of climate change, Sopnendu sees the Fintech space as a critical source of data and behavioural nudges that can move the needle, especially with respect to green solutions needed by companies and individuals. Singapore has lately become a vibrant space for green product-related research and development, as well as fund raising, something the authorities have encouraged actively. What about future technologies and solutions in the pipeline? What key developments await us? Sopnendu ends this riveting chat with his crystal ball. Watch/listen and find out!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anne Krueger, a veteran of international economics, Senior Research Professor at the School for Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, joins Kopi Time. She is candid in her criticism of the current US administration’s stance on trade with China, guarded about the usefulness of industrial policy, and against a substantial rise in federal minimum wage. With sharp reasoning, she breaks down the risks associated with inflation, stimulus measures, international support to deal with the pandemic, and central bank digital currencies. At 87, Dr Krueger remains as brilliant as ever; an inspiration to work productively long past what tradition dictates to be retirement age.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

"The risk is the Fed doesn’t overshoot 2% inflation by a small margin, but by a large amount.”"Low interest rate cannot help the poor who don’t own real and financial assets. They need wage increases."   Astute long-term market observer Komal Sri-Kumar (President of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute) returns to Kopi Time to share his concerns on economic overheating, inflation risks, Fed credibility, housing market, and rising inequality. Sri switched from being a long-term US fixed income bull to a bear earlier this year, expecting 2%+ 10-yr US bond yield by the end of the year. He is not only worried about the knock-on impact of prolonged monetary easing on inflation and financial stability in the US, but the likely destabilising global implications through the liquidity and exchange rate channels. He is short duration, neutral to bearish USD, long gold, and long commodities (food, energy, metals). He has no conviction on equities, especially given the high valuations and the risk of Fed misstep. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research at the Bank for International Settlements, joins Kopi Time to discuss the latest in Central Bank Digital Currencies or CBDCs. We begin with the basics: is CBDC nothing more than a digital banknote? What kind of interest in CBDCs is there among the community of central banks? What kind of payments, settlement, or other financial/social problems at the domestic level can be solved by a CBDC? What about cross border payments? What are the ideal design features and potential points of friction? What about data privacy? Would private sector stable coins complicate matters? Hyun addresses all this with great detail and clarity, and ends by sharing with us his vision for CBDCs five years from now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mary Ellen Iskenderian, President and CEO of Women’s World Banking, joins Kopi Time to talk about giving low-income women in the developing world access to the financial tools and resources. She begins by setting the ground for where we stand with respect to gender equity. She points out that financial inclusion means more than just having a bank account; increasingly, a better indicator is access to a smartphone, in which there remains a large gender gap. She shares her organisation’s rich insights into partnering with governments and entrepreneurs to come up with innovative, increasingly digital, gender-based solutions that lift up women and reduce inequality.  She explains that the research and experience of her organisation forms the basis for providing a wide range of companies with the tools and programs needed to build gender-diverse teams. Women’s World Banking has also been involved in successful gender-lens investments; Mary Ellen shares her experience with fund raising, successful exits, and the impact of the pandemic on such investments. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, joins Kopi Time from Washington DC to talk about all things fiscal.  She provides an historical context to the path of US government debt, from balanced budget and near zero debt days of the 1990s to 100%+ debt/GDP today. She provides valuable insights into the rigidities of spending, the political inclination to pursue unfunded tax cuts and spending increases, and the risk of unchecked expansion of federal government deficit and debt. She assesses the pros and cons of the recent and forthcoming fiscal packages, her wish list of fiscal reforms, especially fiscal rules, and the political room available for debt consolidation. Maya’s team works with both major US political parties to keep fiscal responsibility alive; it’s hard but essential work, and is critically important to follow for those invested in the US economy.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This special episode is a commentary by DBS chief economist Taimur Baig. Singapore’s January-April economic momentum will be disrupted by a set of renewed stringent measures. New coronavirus variants are highly transmissible; they may also have some vaccine resistant properties. An abundance of caution warrants a degree of reinforced stringency on mobility and proximity. Singapore’s imperative now is to vaccinate a wider population as soon as possible, as vaccinated individuals are extremely unlikely to suffer from severe illness or fatality. Japan’s real GDP likely contacted by 2% in 1Q as domestic demand deteriorated due to the resurgence of COVID-19, fully offsetting the recovery in exports. Same could be on the cards for Singapore in 2Q. Between progress with vaccination and targeted fiscal support, Singapore should come out of the May/June turbulence quickly.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Juliana Chan, founder & CEO of Wildtype Media Group, joins Kopi Time to talk about the state of publication, R&D, and public-private partnerships in the area of science and tech in Asia. She delves into the areas of transformational technology under development in China, Japan, and Singapore, the role of women in science in the region, and the burgeoning ecosystem that is promoting research commercialisation. As important as scientific breakthroughs is disseminating those insights to the public, critical to build awareness on matters such as pandemic response or climate change.   The views, information, or opinions expressed during this Podcast are solely those of the individuals involved and do not necessarily represent those of DBS Bank.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kishore Mahbubani, veteran expert on geopolitics and presently Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, talks about the urgent need for constructive engagement with China to avoid the risk of a lose-lose outcome for the world. A pragmatic, trade-off oriented strategy to deal with China would help achieve peace and prosperity for all, while ideologically-driven confrontations would only keep escalating matters, in his view. As always erudite, Mahbubani spans global history and geography to draw in lessons for policy makers and non-government observers alike.    The views, information, or opinions expressed during this Podcast are solely those of the individuals involved and do not necessarily represent those of DBS Bank.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vasuki Shastry, Associate Fellow in the Asia Pacific program of Chatham House, joins Kopi Time to discuss his book on the complexities and challenges of Asia. We go over Asia’s inner tensions and bifurcations, and the headwinds coming from aging, deglobalisation, technology disruption, poor leadership, middle income trap, inequality, climate change, gender, internal insurgencies, fragile geopolitics, and oligarchy. Vasuki is not a pessimist, but is keen to bring in realism in discussions about the region’s future. He wants the notion of Asia’s unrelenting rise to be eschewed, as it does a disservice to recognising the formidable challenges that lie ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this special podcast, Piyush Gupta, CEO and Director of DBS Group, shares his thinking on a variety of topics, including: 1:10 to 4:25: Track record of banks during this pandemic 5:00 to 10:05: Evolving notion of data privacy and societal responsibilities 10:30 to 12:55: The most interesting instances of accelerated disruption in the past year (elaborated further: 16:03 to 17:00) 13:42 to 15:46: Remote working and the future of office (elaborated further: 17:29 to 18:23) 18:50 to 25:15: Short- and long-term challenges facing banks 25:42 to 30:06: Shortcoming of the way we assess economies and companies 30:15 to 37:30: ESG as an opportunity, not obligation 38:00 to 43:00 South-East Asia's prospects in the decades ahead See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“We need the State to help solve these problems... but we have not paid attention to what are the attributes of government we need.” David Victor, Professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UC San Diego, a foremost expert on the policy of decarbonisation, joins Kopi Time to shed critical light on the challenge of our generation. He begins by highlighting the urgency of deep reduction of carbon from the atmosphere, and the track record of climate policies such as cap and trade, carbon tax, and carbon offset. David walks through the reasons why he is sceptical of traditional market-based solution to pricing carbon and constraining its emission. He then delves into promising policy options and technologies, and considers the state of decarbonisation in critical sectors like energy, road transportation, and aviation. David explains why the EU has made hard-earned gains in creating a carbon marketplace, and the incentives and nudges that can help implement smart, adaptive regulations worldwide. Given the myriad of uncertainties involved, he sees wisdom in running many small policy experiments, which can then be scaled up if found promising. David takes stock of the developments in the US, China, and India, three of the most critical jurisdictions that need to pursue net zero policy over the long run. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chandran Nair, Founder and CEO of the Global Institute For Tomorrow (GIFT), an independent pan-Asian think tank and author of the book “The Sustainable State,” argues passionately about the global vulnerabilities that need to be tackled urgently. He begins by highlighting a few myths and fallacies that have been exposed by the events of the past year.  He stresses that the public sector and civil society should be central to solving our generational problems like climate change and inequality, as they simply cannot be solved by the private sector. He advocates policies that improve the quality of people’s lives in a sustainable and equitable manner, urging less reliance on GDP growth as a development target. He points out that pricing nonrenewable resources to align incentives toward conservation and devoting state spending to public and common good are the call of the hour. We discuss the need to rethink consumption-based growth models, and the danger of expecting technology to solve everything. We also cover the imperatives for China, Singapore, and the US. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Spanning cutting edge design and production that range from of silicon to wafer to integrated circuits, semiconductors are perhaps the most complex and critically important product in the world today. Which countries and companies are good at the various design and production stages? Why did Intel slip over the years? What explains TSMC’s rise? Where do China, Taiwan, US, South Korea, Japan and other countries fit into this narrative? How have states gotten involved, and what are the national security implications? How will the China-US rivalry take shape around the race to establish semiconductor chip supremacy? To delve into this fascinating subject, we are lucky to have with us Dan Wang, a foremost expert commentator on the semiconductor supply chain, as well as related regulations and policies. This is a must-listen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Yes, it has been a year of Kopi Time! When we did our first recording on February 24, 2020, Covid was still a China-oriented crisis, and global financial markets were still buoyant. But even then, in that inaugural episode, Bert Hofman, Director of the East Asian Institute at NUS and Professor of Practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School, warned about the sharp 1Q contraction unfolding in China and possible spillover risks. We invited Prof Hofman back to Kopi Time to take stock of the past year and the road ahead. We begin by going over the global policy response to the pandemic and the fault-lines and vulnerabilities revealed last year. Prof Hofman then considers Asia’s outlook this year, along with the risk of financial market contagion. We then discuss China at length, including Bert’s scorecard for the economy in 2020, the dual circulation economic strategy, push for innovation, agenda on climate change, developments in the digital currency space, and of course, the future of China-US relations. We thank our listeners for their time and support over the first year of Kopi Time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ajaita Shah, founder and CEO of Frontier Markets, joins Kopi Time to talk about connecting female entrepreneurs and customers in rural India. A US citizen of Indian origin, Ajaita moved to India 15 years ago, and has spent the past decade running Frontier Markets. We talk about the incubation process of her endeavour, the challenges faced, pivots made, and the digital journey so far. She walks us through the core values of Frontier Markets, key milestones reached, and the adjustments made necessary by the Covid pandemic. Ajaita also sheds light on her experience of working as a female social entrepreneur, and her ambitious visions for the future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark Sobel, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for international monetary and financial policy at US Treasury, joins Kopi Time to offer astute insights on the US economy and President Biden’s agenda.  We touch on the following: Loss of rebound momentum in recent US economic data A scenario of sharp 2H21 pick-up in demand around successful vaccine rollout and a large fiscal stimulus What we should expect in the Biden rescue bill Expectation of the near and medium term growth impact of a trillion plus stimulus Likely relationship between the current Fed chairperson (Powell) with the former chairperson (Treasury Secretary Yellen) US near- and medium-term inflation outlook Conditions under which Fed tapering will be on the table  Area of concern on financial stability Outlook for the USD  President Biden’s China strategy  Outlook for emerging market economies See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Special Purpose Acquisition Companies are known in the investment world as SPACs. These structures have taken the limelight in the world of fund raising in the past year, with over $81bn issuances in 2020. SPACs in fact made up for nearly half of the IPO market in the US last year.  We at Kopi Time can’t let such a major driver of capital market activity go unaddressed, so we reach out to an industry expert, Alok Oberoi. Alok has over three decades of experience with asset management, including senior roles at Goldman Sachs and ACPI.  We go through the ABC of SPACs (what, why, how big, players, sectors where there is activity, life cycle, history), along with their purpose, usefulness, and potential. Alok provides lucid explanations of the structure and operation of this mega growth activity, and is forthright is laying out that there are open questions about the performance and challenges of SPACs.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shameran Abed, Director of Microfinance at BRAC, one of the largest social enterprise and micro-lending financial institution in the world, joins Kopi Time. We talk about five key issues with Shameran, who presents data and insights from being involved with over 7 million clients in the developing world, on matters ranging from credit, payment, investment, health, and education. First, the impact of the pandemic, including the spike in temporary and permanent unemployment, the risk of slipping back into poverty, and the disproportionate impact on women and children. Second, the innovative solutions offered to deal with the pandemic (deposit reimbursement through electronic means to the unbanked, loan moratorium, health advice through smartphones). Third, the transformational impact of fintech in financial inclusion (BRAC’s mobile money subsidiary BKash clears 7-8 million transactions a day). Fourth, the far-reaching benefits of early intervention in health and education for locals and refugees alike. Fifth, the outstanding challenges in the post-pandemic environment. Organisations like BRAC and Grameen have improved the lives of tens of millions of poor; their work is truly inspirational.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Varun Mittal, Partner of EY Asia Pacific Financial Services Strategy and Transaction Services, talks about all things FinTech. We begin by going over the tech foundation that has been built up over the past decade, which is now enabling a wave of innovation. Varun scans both the start-ups and big tech companies, and details his views on payments, wallets, remittance, regulation, WealthTech, e-currency, and digital banks. We discuss the role of FinTech in levelling the playing field between the wealthy and not-so-wealthy investors, and between those who have access to banking services and those who don’t. As the co-author of "Singapore – Fintech Nation of the World,” Varun is particularly passionate about Singapore’s model of strict compliance and risk mitigation, which he believes is particularly suited for success in the regulated world of FinTech. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We start the new year with an engaging discussion on the implications of various trade and investment agreements in the region, with Dr. Deborah Elms, Founder and Executive Director of the Asian Trade Centre. How should companies prepare for RCEP? How deep and beneficial are the various stipulations of the agreement? Who will gain the most? What about CPTPP? Will the US come back to it? Who else is in line to join? What about digital trade and commerce in the region? Dr. Elms provides tangible and realistic insights on all this.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The year’s final Kopi Time podcast features a deep dive into the science of vaccines. Associate Professor Jenny Low, a senior consultant with the Department of Infectious Diseases in Singapore General Hospital, breaks down everything we need to know with respect to ongoing vaccine developments. Want to know the difference between the vaccines being developed by Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer? How are they being developed so much faster than ever before? How is effectiveness calculated? Can a vaccinated person be infectious? How long are we likely to remain immune after vaccination? How is Singapore’s efforts to develop a vaccine going? All this and more from Dr. Low, who is at the forefront of the fight to end this once-in-a-century pandemic.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephen Schwartz, head of Asia-Pacific Sovereigns at Fitch Ratings, joins Kopi Time to explain how the Covid-19 pandemic fits into sovereign ratings analysis. He outlines the recovery outlook and flags the sovereigns under most ratings pressure. We then scan the macro landscape with Stephen to highlight the key risks for next year, and the geopolitical factors involving the US and China that matter for this region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ziad Haider, Head of Geopolitical Risk and Director of Risk, Asia at McKinsey & Company, joins Kopi Time to talk about his work on risk analysis. In addition to shedding light on what he does in his current job, Ziad shares with us his experience in US presidential transitions. He also provides insights into what one can expect from the incoming Biden administration on relationship with China, Asean, and trade.  Finally, we discuss the way companies can prepare to manage the various axis of geopolitical risks that lie ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Eswar Prasad, Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University, joins Kopi Time to share his deep insights on the global economic outlook and major developments in the currency world. He goes deep into the arguments over why the US dollar reigns supreme and will likely continue to do so. He walks us through various initiatives that would increase the role of the Chinese RMB in global payments, but is skeptical that it would take up safe haven status. Eswar then delves into the promises and challenges of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). He goes over the possible applications, as well as regulatory and financial stability concerns involving CBDCs, both in developed and emerging economies.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Marsha Vande Berg, fellow with the Distinguished Careers Institute at Stanford University, talks about the significance and implication of the  2020 US presidential elections. We discuss  the impact on domestic policy, ranging from the key outstanding issues in pandemic management, healthcare, inequality, climate change, infrastructure, and jobs. We talk about the persistent polarisation getting in the way of fundamental reforms time and again.  We then shift to foreign and trade policy implications for China, North Asia, Asean, and India.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A wide ranging discussion with Dr. Arvind Subramanian, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economic advisor to the Government of India (2014-18). We talk about the risks to global growth, from deglobalisation to job-replacing technologies, independent of the damage from the ongoing pandemic. From climate change to the need for basic public goods to support growth, Arvind assesses the imperatives and tradeoffs. Arvind also shares his deep knowledge on China and India, about their fundamental trends, existing macro constraints, opportunities lost, and remaining potential. Arvind firmly believes that basic economic laws cannot be defied, but at the same time he draws insights from cutting edge research and eschews dogmatism. Fascinating conversation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andreas Rasche, Professor of Business in Society at the Copenhagen Business School’s Centre for Corporate Social Responsibility, joins us in Kopi Time for a wide ranging discussion on the current state and promise of sustainable investing. Andreas finds the world of investment and climate change increasing characterised by VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) factors. It is critical for business leaders and investors to recognise this world with a degree of humility and analyse their outlook around multiple, data-driven, well thought-through scenarios. Andreas points out the importance of forward-thinking leadership, use of big data and technology, and learning from the ongoing pandemic in creating resilient firms and portfolios.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ben Bland, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, and former journalist at Financial Times, joins Kopi Time to discuss Indonesia, world’s third largest democracy. Ben draws on his multi-decade experience in covering the nation’s economic, politics, and history to shed light on the present juncture, as the Covid-crisis challenges Indonesia like never before. We discuss the idiosyncrasies driving the present narrative and the outlook for reforms and possible fault-lines ahead. We also delve into Ben’s new book on President Joko Widodo, in which Jokowi’s rise to power, challenges of governance, key views and instincts, and personality traits are discussed insightfully. For those of you who find Indonesia fascinating like I do, you will enjoy this chat.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James Crabtree, Singapore-based author and journalist, and Associate Professor of Practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, joins Kopi Time to talk about elections, politics, trade, and technology in the near-and-medium term. What are the scenarios and risks around the US elections? How would the outcome impact Asia in general and China in particular? How will trade and tech wars pan out? How are Asian economies doing through this all?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Abdul Abiad, Director of the Macroeconomic Research Division at the Asian Development Bank, joins Kopi Time to talk about the region’s pandemic response, macro vulnerabilities, and economic outlook. ADB is urging the regional governments to recognise that there is not trade-off between lives and livelihood while dealing with the pandemic; success in one is a prerequisite to success in the other. Dr. Abiad also goes over highly insightful research done by ADB on the wellness of Asians. Examining data and evidence on diet, healthcare, traffic congestion, climate, sports and recreation, and workplace safety, it is clear that much more needs to be done in the region to improve the well being of the citizens. As Asia transitions from low to medium income and beyond, aspirations and demands are evolving; people want a holistic pathway to physical and mental wellness.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A deep dive on Brexit, past, present, and future, with perhaps the foremost expert on the issue, Sir Ivan Rogers. Sir Ivan was the Permanent Representative of the UK to the EU between 2013 and 2017; he also served various top treasury roles under Kenneth Clarke, Gordon Brown, and Tony Blair. Eloquent and prescient, he takes stock of how the UK ended up with Brexit. On the current juncture, he summarises the risks around the rift between the UK and EU,  the usefulness of multilateral pacts governing trade and commerce, and perhaps most profoundly, the role of the UK in the global landscape. Looking forward, he offers caution and hope for the UK, with clear eyed exposition on the challenges associated with the pandemic, innovation, labour market, debt, trade in goods and services, and evolving relationship with the EU and the US. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Sonnenshein, Managing Director at Grayscale Investments, the world’s largest digital currency asset manager, joins Kopi Time to talk about private digital currencies or cryptos. We discuss the notion of crypto as an asset class, as a store of value versus safe haven, current trend in transactions and interest from Institutional investors, and the Impact of crisis-level fiscal and economic policies on cryptos. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hans Vriens of Vriens & Partners, which analyses government affairs, public policy, and political risk analysis around Southeast Asia, joins Kopi Time to talk about regional political developments and outlook. We go over Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam, all affected by the pandemic and associated economic crisis, while grappling with intensifying China-US tension. At the same time, all of these cases have their unique contexts. Hans. who has been in Asia for three decades, and his team, are highly regarded; you will enjoy the insights.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sonia Gupta, Managing Director, Growth and Innovation, Accenture Growth Markets, joins Kopi Time to talk about the new and lasting trends in consumer behaviour through the ongoing pandemic and accelerating digitisation. She draws on the findings from a series of large sample surveys carried out by Accenture across the world to shed light on consumers’ sense of security, comfort with working from home, preference toward sustainable and local products, and the extent of trust vis-a-vis their employers and governments. Sonia gives a series of insightful examples on how companies are reacting to these seismic changes.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shaokai Fan, head of Central Bank Relationships, World Gold Council, joins Kopi Time to talk about the precious metal that has rallied around 25% in the past year. Without getting into the outlook for the asset’s price, he lays out many useful insights related to gold production (geography, cost, storage), demand (safe haven, low yield, usage, liquidity, positioning), market structure (OTC, funds, ETF), and industry standards (data, education, ESG).  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prakash Kannan, GIC’s Chief Economist and Head of Total Portfolio Management, joins Kopi Time to talk about the sovereign wealth fund’s long-term investment outlook. We discuss pockets of sovereign risk, headwinds to globalisation, implication of rapid debt buildup, paradigm shifts in central banking, unintended consequence of massive liquidity injection and exceptionally low interest rates, froth in the global equity markets (especially big tech), China’s crisis response, both with respect to the pandemic and economic lockdown, and outlook for USD and EUR. Prakash also touches on GIC’s three pillars of ESG investment approach—offence (seizing opportunities in clean energy and technology), defence (screening its portfolio and engaging comapnies that form large holdings), and excellence (internal commitment to sustainability). GIC believes that companies with stronger sustainability credentials will deliver superior long-term risk adjusted returns. We share their belief whole-heartedly.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We discuss the great power rivalry of our time with Dr. Lynn Kuok, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security at the International Institute of Strategic Studies. Dr. Kuok walks us through the key factors driving the ongoing deterioration in US-China relationship, what that means for the countries in Asia, various elements of tension in the South China Sea, recent developments in US-India relationship, and the narrowing window of options for the nations in South-East Asia. The hope is for a rules-based, multilateral order to deal with China-US frictions, but the danger is that a transactional and bilateral skirmish is deepening, with a wide array of fallout that affects all of us.    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Khor Hoe Ee, Chief Economist of AMRO (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office), joins Kopi Time to explain the role of the organisation in the region and the scope of the USD240bn liquidity support and crisis prevention Chiang Mai Initiative for 14 Asian economies.  Dr Khor also highlight’s AMRO’s forecasts and analysis, along with some its recent research on credit risk contagion.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vivek Pathak, Regional Director for East Asia and Pacific at the International Finance Corporation, joins Kopi time to discuss the organisation’s portfolio of investments in the region. Affected by the health challenges of the pandemic in varying degrees, but facing the economic stress across the board, regional authorities and companies are trying to rise to the occasion. The IFC is supporting many initiatives along the way, Vivek explains. He then goes over the where and how of IFC’s investments in East Asia, focusing on the demand side and ideas on projects related to climate change and green urban infrastructure. He concludes by providing overviews of Indonesia and Vietnam, two economies with very different orientation, but with plenty of promises for the medium term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“What can be measured, can be managed” Paul Hiebert, Head of Systemic Risk & Financial Institutions Division at the European Central Bank, joins Kopi time to talk about climate change and financial risks. He goes over the key initiatives undertaken by various Euro area institutions to produce and disseminate better data, standards, and analysis so that private and public sector can prepare for the impending high cost of dealing with climate change. Paul shares estimates of relevant long-term potential loss in GDP and the annual cost of remedial measures that are now being used for planning and regulation purposes. He then goes over key initiatives by regulators and governments to estimate climate change related credit risk on the balance sheet of the financial sector, work in progress to build the capacity to price such risks, and simulation and scenario analysis to quantify the need for further investment. Paul also sheds light on initiatives beyond the Euro Area, such as by the Network for Greening the Financial System, the Financial Stability Board, and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“It’s a mistake to assume that where we are now, is going to be where we are for ever more"  Eminent macroeconomist and former Deputy Governor of Bank of England Charles Bean joins Kopi time to talk about economic policy during a pandemic. He recognises the necessity of lockdown and the associated seismic support measures, but going forward, he favours far more targetted policies. Instead of across the board sales tax cuts, for instance, only highly vulnerable firms and individuals should be supported in the next round of measures. Sir Charles is concerned about the scarring effect of the economic crisis on the current generation of youth about to enter the workforce. To ensure that their lifetime job and earning prospects don’t suffer in a lasting manner, policy support is imperative, including in the areas of job training and incentive for employers. These measures can be financed by long-term government borrowing that locks on to the prevailing low rates. On monetary policy, a few years of low rates look likely, but there would likely be financial stability consequences. Uncertainty around post-Brexit UK lingers, but that is dwarfed by the new set of uncertainties around the pandemic.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Atul Kapur joins Kopi time to talk about the journey of Everstone Group, which manages over USD5bn across private equity, real estate, green infrastructure, and venture capital in India and South-East Asia. Atul and Sameer Sain founded the firm almost 15 years ago; what was the motivation, what were the capital raising and recruitment challenges along the way? Has India delivered the envisaged returns to investment firms like Everstone despite all the political and economic volatility along the way? Which sectors in India are holding up, and where is the promise going forward? Atul also sheds light on the process of active private investing, which he calls the un-peeling of many layers of the firm’s “onion,” that sets it apart from public investing. Fascinating insights, full of rich details.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Frank Engels, in charge of investment strategy of over €300bn AUM in Germany’s Union Investments, joins Kopi time to talk about Eurozone’s battle with Covid-19, the large fiscal measures in the pipeline, the prospect for regional unity on critical matters such as debt mutualisation, sectors that may benefit the most from additional spending, Europe’s relationship with China, risks around Brexit talks, and the asset market outlook, ranging from the euro to corporate debt to equities.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“The game is optimising and maintaining profits for the long-term, not maximising it over the short-term” Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, explains why he transitioned from a career in traditional buyside fund management to setting up a firm that seeks to redefine the notion of wealth and its creation. He walks us through the key aspects of sustainability-driven fund management, focusing on returns and progress on four forms of capital; human, social, environmental, and financial. Munib has joined a group of visionaries who use data analysis to assert that companies with strong social purpose and progress deliver sustainable financial returns over time. He addresses the challenges and opportunities, conceptual and practical, that come with this approach. The ongoing pandemic has shone a strong light on the resiliency of companies with greater purpose and responsibility, along with their preparedness to deal with forthcoming regulations in the post-pandemic world. As companies move from shareholder accountability to stakeholder accountability, and societies exert pressure on firms to become more cognisant of climate change, fund managers like Munib are a key part of these critical transformations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“This will be a crisis wasted if we do not acknowledge and instil the principles of solidarity and subsidiarity, the dignity of work, and the recognition that each person matters and has something unique to contribute to society” We speak with Dr. Alexis Crow, Lead, Geopolitical Investing Practice at PwC US, on the health and economic situation in the US, complicated by the “red-blue” divide. We also touch on issues beyond the near-term, examining fiscal sustainability, income inequality, and the future of work.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“You can always pull the Fed's chain" In this podcast, long-time buyside strategist Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar (ex-The TCW Group and Drexel Burnham Lambert) joins us from Santa Monica, California to explain why he foresaw a US recession last January. He also underscores his beliefs that (i) the Federal Reserve has become hostage to the equity markets, (ii) the fixed income market is the best leading gauge of economic growth, (iii) endless QE will create zombie companies and drive down return on capital, (iv) the US dollar may have peaked, (v) oil prices may have some short-term upside, (vi) long gold makes sense, and (vii) some emerging markets provide attractive investment opportunities. Sri goes far beyond just asserting his views; he walks us through his arguments lucidly and comprehensively. There is a reason Bloomberg and CNBC can’t get enough of him.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“Until you have defeated the virus everywhere, you haven’t really defeated it anywhere” I  discuss a wide range of conjunctural topics with Professor Raghuram Rajan, a foremost global authority on central banking, financial markets, and economic development. Prof Rajan begins by underscoring the high degree of uncertainty around economic forecasts and major risks weighing on financial markets. He shares with us his take on the impact of Covid-19 on developed economies, where there are early signs of curve flattening. His key concern is countries like India, characterised by not only weak economic fundamentals, but also weak administrative machinery and inadequate public health coverage. See his article with Nobel laureates Abhijit Banerjee and Amartya Sen on this topic at https://go.dbs.com/2wITOH0 On fiscal and monetary policy measures, Prof Rajan supports strong and innovative life-line measures for those most affected by the crisis, but he is not in favour of support for all, especially in advanced economies that have strong bankruptcy processes in place. He also talks about this crisis as a window for banks to redeem themselves after the missteps around the 2008/09 financial crisis.  Dr. Rajan has just been named a member of the IMF’s external advisory group. He talks about how he would advocate more liquidity support measure for EMs, as well as special temporary swap-like IMF financing facilities to supplement what the US Fed has been doing.  In his recent book “The Third Pillar—how markets and the state leave the community behind,” Prof Rajan calls for local communities to be empowered further. Here he contextualises the role of communities in health and education, particularly relevant at times like this.  We end with some hope that at the G20 and G7 levels, despite a lack of US leadership, the world is coming together to take coordinated actions to combat Covid-19 and its economic damage.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talk about a masterclass. We talk to the man who discovered the bat-to-man link of the SARS virus back in 2003 and is currently deeply involved in getting to the bottom of the ongoing pandemic. Professor Wang Linfa, Director of the Programme in Emerging Infectious Diseases at Duke-NUS Medical School, walks us through numerous questions about the coronavirus wreaking lives and livelihood worldwide. What’s the difference between SARS-COV-2 and Covid-19? Where did it originate, and could it be man-made? Why is it so infectious? Are asymptomatic carriers infectious? How good are the tests, and what’s the pipeline for rapid-tests? What about anti-bodies and convalescent plasma therapy? What’s the latest on anti-viral developments? What about the holy grail of vaccine development? You will not find a more informed set of answers!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this highly informative and insightful podcast, former senior US Treasury official Dr. Robert Dohner illustrates the contrast between a lack of US political leadership in dealing with the pandemic at the global level against an energised Fed taking actions to ease USD funding conditions worldwide. He weighs in on the much talked about scenario of the Fed heading toward negative rates, and makes a series of meticulous arguments why that is unlikely. Dr Dohner shares his view on the role multilateral organizations like the IMF and World Banks are playing to address the financial and economic dimensions of the pandemic. He then sheds light on why he thinks Asia is relatively well placed to come out of the crisis.  He concludes with his perspective on how Donald Trump will deal with China in his second term versus the way a Biden administration would.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this Podcast, we discuss ASEAN and China with Centennial Group’s Manu Bhaskaran, a prominent Singaporean economist. During the discussion, Manu delves into Singapore’s economic outlook, the likely divergence between manufacturing and services, and the impact of the large fiscal and monetary support measures announced so far. He then provides insights on Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, three very different economies in terms of sectoral composition and risk exposure. Manu examines the China-ASEAN dimensions in the context of trade war, supply chain realignment, and rising anti-China sentiments in the West. He concludes by looking constructively at the nature of the recovery ahead, and the fundamental changes likely in train.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How on earth did WTI May contract turn negative? What is the supply and demand picture, between Opec production cuts and ongoing global demand destruction? How are energy traders doing? Will US shale see an existential challenge? What would exceptionally low oil prices mean for the energy industry worldwide, from jobs to investment to credit risk? What about geopolitical implications? Would low oil crowd out the investment and demand necessary for renewable energy? We talk about all this and more with seasoned energy sector analyst Vandana Hari, founder and CEO of Vanda Insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global supply chains are ever evolving, but the current juncture appears to be potentially seismic. China has been, for over a decade, pushing out low value-added manufacturing to the economies of South and South-East Asia, although many components of those processes still reside in mainland China. US and a few allies have been pushing, largely in the name of national security, for removing some of their reliance on the Chinese supply chain, especially at the top end of the value-added spectrum. Meanwhile, robotics and automation are changing the need for cheap labour to produce many goods. Finally, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has revealed both the complexity and the fragility of global supply chains. NUS Professor Alexander Capri, with decades of experience both in academia and the private sector on global value chains and international trade, provides us with an engaging narrative of the economics, business reality, and geopolitics of this compelling topic.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We connect with New York City in this episode, where in the East Side of Manhattan is our guest, Dr. Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University. So far in this podcast series we have restricted ourselves to the geography of Singapore and sitting down with our guests face to face. But it is high time to go remote, and that frees up geographical barriers and our guest pool considerably. We connect with New York City in this episode, where in the East Side of Manhattan is our guest, Dr. Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University. Bernie recently published an article in Project Syndicate, provocatively titled “Saudi Arabia’s radical new oil strategy.” We begin by going over his theory that Saudi Arabia, under the stewardship of crown prince Mohammad Bin Salman, is done being the swing producer of oil, and with climate change and renewable energy in the horizon, may well want to pump in 20 coming years its entire oil reserves. We then contextualise this intriguing thesis with ongoing OPEC-plus negotiations and US involvement to cut back supply. Bernie elaborates on the state of Saudi-US relationship. The former buys a lot of US arms, supports US and Israeli foreign policy objectives of confronting Iran and supporting Egypt, while the latter has been fairly quiet through the Qatar blockade, the war in Yemen, the Khashoggi assassination, and even more shockingly, during this oil price war that is bound to hurt some states that form a core of Trump’s support base. Bernie explains to us what is binding the White House with MBS so tightly.The discussion then touches on the Saudi-UAE-Qatar conflict, Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Lebanon. We go over the political situation, impact of Covid-19, risk of financial crisis, regional armed conflict, and scenarios of détente.For anyone interested in oil markets and the middle-east, Prof Haykel’s insights will be invaluable. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“Having lived through the Asian financial crisis and the SARS crisis, if you add the two together, this (Covid-19) is possibly more challenging... (For the world) we can hope for good leadership to emerge, but I sometimes wonder if we have got the right (global) leadership right now. Where we are now… there is a dark path ahead. It might emerge in light, we could be better people, but there is a long way to go, and there will be challenges every step of the way.” --Prof Simon Tay, Chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and a tenured Associate Professor of international law at the National University of Singapore Faculty of Law In this podcast, we have an in-depth conversation with Prof Tay, who digs into his extensive experience to go over how Singapore is balancing its fight against Covid-19 between mitigation and suppression. In a wide-ranging discussion, he walks us through the need for pragmatic governance (independent of ideology), the grim path ahead for the world’s economies and societies, the myriad challenges faced by China, the US playbook at the current juncture, the outlook for Asean, and the urgent need for international cooperation, both at the regional and multilateral levels.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This podcast can be broadly classified under sustainability, but it is important to underscore that sustainability is an exceptionally broad and all-encompassing subject. From DBS bank’s perspective, for instance, sustainability entails considering responsible banking, improving reporting of our standards and practices, encouraging responsible behaviour in the society, creating social impact, and carrying out research to extract society -relevant insights on our planetary footprint. We cannot possibly deal with all that in a half-hour session. For that, you should read our annual sustainability report, available on https://go.dbs.com/33ztcVa The person who is in charge putting that excellent annual report together is Mikkel Larsen, Managing Director & Chief Sustainability Officer of DBS. He is also the co-chair of the DBS Sustainability Council and an adjunct professor corporate sustainability at Copenhagen Business School. Mikkel, on his eighth year in DBS, is a committed vegan, carbon footprint minimiser, long-distance runner, and a martial-arts maven. Mikkel helps us understand one specific but important area, known as the “tragedy of the commons.” The theory originated in an essay written in 1833 by the British economist William Lloyd, who used a hypothetical example of the effects of unregulated grazing on common land in the UK. This issue is now tightly tied to climate change, as the climate is the commons, which we need to support, but despite recent progress, the worldwide system of regulation and incentives fall way below what is needed. Why is that we care, but we don’t do enough? Can we solve this through public sector solutions or will it be the private sector that saves the day? What’s happening that is encouraging?SHOW LESSSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We discuss the game-changing work going on in Singapore’s N.1 Institute for Health as well as the Institute for Digital Medicine (WisDM) at National University. Dean Ho, who runs both institutes, walks us through the use of Artificial Intelligence in transforming the landscape of drug discovery and repurposing, matching patients to clinical trials, and personalised cancer therapy. Dean also highlights Singapore’s powerful ecosystem involving biomedical engineers, clinicians, regulators, and policy makers, with fully aligned incentives that is accelerating progress in these areas. This integrated approach will not only improve care and support innovation, but also keep healthcare costs under control. On COVID-19, Dean points out that his AI system took three days to come up with an optimal drug dose combination to fight the virus, which could be in clinical trial by end of this month. This podcast offers hope and excitement, much needed in these bleak times.SHOW LESSSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We chat with Angela Mancini, partner at Control Risks. Angela’s team advises global clients on business strategy while navigating political, governance, and regulatory risks. We discuss the evolving political picture in Malaysia and Indonesia, followed by China-US relationship in light of COVID-19 and trade war, and finally, the US presidential election outlook.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We chat with credit strategist Slava Shilin, Russian born, UK national, Singapore resident, and almost fluent in Mandarin. In this highly engaging podcast, Slava talks about travelling through small towns in China, assessing the depth of the country’s progress at grass-roots level, and surprising aspects about day-to-day living there. He stresses why being able to read and write adds considerable depth to understanding China than just attaining Mandarin speech proficiency. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this inaugural podcast, we speak with China expert Prof Bert Hoffman of National University. Bert headed World Bank’s China office for several years prior to moving to Singapore last year. In a fascinating 30-minute chat, we go over the COVID-19 fallout, likely economic impact and policy response, the political dimensions, and the Chinese economy’s much needed move toward service and consumption orientation. Bert has sharp insights on the world’s second largest economy; he presents them here simply, candidly, and tightly. Enjoy the podcast!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.