Access decisions play a crucial role in large-scale conflicts and yet the decision-making process of potential host nations has largely been unexplored. Rick talks with TNSR author Emily Ellinger about how leaders consider regime survival, economic repercussions, and potential retaliation when making access decisions.

On Sept. 19, Dr. Olivia Cheung, Research Fellow at the China Institute at SOAS University of London, spoke about her book, The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, co-authored with Steve Tsang.

On Sept. 17, at the University of Texas at Austin, General (Ret.) Kenneth F. “Frank” McKenzie Jr. spoke about his book, “The Melting Point: High Command and War in the 21st Century.” This discussion, moderated by Joseph Maguire, covers Gen. McKenzie’s military career, with a particular focus on his time as commander of U.S. Central Command – which included the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the assassination of Qasem Soleimani.

TNSR Managing Editor Rick Landgraf talks with Charles Ziegler about his latest article, Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan. Charles and Rick discuss how the Central Asian countries have reacted to the withdrawal, how Russia has tried to reassert itself in the region, and why China might eventually supplant Russia as the regional hegemon.

Robert D. Kaplan spoke at the University of Texas at Austin, where he discussed how our leaders can come to grips with a world seemingly in disarray.

TNSR Production Editor Kerry Anderson talks with historian Daniel Chardell about his article The Origins of the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait Reconsidered, published in Volume 6, Issue 3 of TNSR. Daniel and Kerry discuss Saddam Hussein's understanding of the shifts in power that followed the Soviet Union's collapse, how U.S. and Iraqi leaders perceived each other, Saddam's concerns about Israel, and historians' use of Iraqi archives.

Marshall Kosloff talks with journalist Martin Pengelly about his book, "Brotherhood: When West Point Rugby Went to War." They discuss rugby and Pengelly's story about members of a West Point rugby team in the aftermath of 9/11.

In this episode, TNSR Production Editor Kerry Anderson sits down with Joseph Stieb to discuss his article from Volume 6, Issue 3 of TNSR: "Why Did the United States Invade Iraq? The Debate at 20 Years."

Jim Goldgeier and Marshall Kosloff discuss the post-Cold War era, NATO expansion, great-power expectations, and the future of the U.S. role in Europe.

China's defense spending is difficult to quantify because many assessments make methodological errors that result in inflated figures. Taylor Fravel, George Gilboy, and Eric Heginbotham explain these flaws and offer a novel method for a more accurate assessment. Their article was published in the summer 2024 issue of TNSR.

At the Clements Center for National Security's Summer Seminar in History and Statecraft, Susan Colbourn and Simon Miles discussed how different concepts of history have shaped the war in Ukraine and how students of international affairs should challenge their assumptions and embrace uncertainty.

In this episode, TNSR publisher Ryan Evans spoke with the journal's new editor-in-chief, Prof. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, an award-winning scholar and associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin's LBJ School of Public Affairs. They spoke about why she became a scholar, her research, the intellectual challenges of the competition with China, and her vision for taking TNSR to the next level.

Ryan Evans talks with Philip Zelikow about his recent article for TNSR, "Confronting Another Axis? History, Humility, and Wishful Thinking." Their wide-ranging and insightful conversation covers everything from Zelikow's career as a high-level foreign policy practitioner and as an historian, his experience directing the 9/11 Commission, his argument that we are in an exceptionally volatile time in global politics, and more.

Rick talks with TNSR author Joshua Byun about how American attempts to leave Europe during the first decade of the Cold War were thwarted by European concerns that German rearmament would trigger a Soviet attack.    

Rick sits down with Richard Maass, the author of "Salami Tactics: Faits Accomplis and International Expansion in the Shadow of Major War," to discuss how powerful countries can use repetitive, limited acts of aggression to expand influence while avoiding potential escalation.

Frank Gavin, chair of TNSR's editorial board, talks with Joseph Nye about his new memoir, "A Life in the American Century." This fascinating conversation covers a range of issues, including lessons from Nye's extensive experience as an influential analyst, policymaker, and scholar.

Marshall Kosloff talks with Luke Schumacher about his recent article in TNSR, "Franklin D. Roosevelt, World War II, and the Reality of Constitutional Statesmanship."

Marshall Kosloff talks with Ambassador Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine about their new book, "Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power."

Ahead of the NATO Summit in Washington in July, Rick sits down with Katherine Elgin and Alexander Lanoszka to discuss what alliance membership means for Sweden and Finland.

Gavin Wilde joined TNSR managing editor Rick Landgraf to discuss Gavin's recent article about the effects of foreign propaganda on U.S. domestic politics. They discuss how the fear that hostile foreign powers could subvert democracy by spreading misinformation may be exaggerated, as the relationship between people's beliefs and attitudes and their media consumption remains unclear. Policy interventions should therefore avoid needlessly intervening, lest they inadvertently imitate the authoritarian states they seek to combat.

Marshall Kosloff talks with Editorial Board Chair Frank Gavin about his essay in TNSR, "Cracks in the Ivory Tower?" They discuss why universities need to consider the purpose of higher education and the ongoing importance of the humanities, including when studying international security issues.

The Clements-Strauss Asia Policy Program hosted Xiaobing Li, professor of history and the Don Betz endowed chair in international studies at the University of Central Oklahoma, for a book talk on China’s New Navy: The Evolution of PLAN from the People’s Revolution to a 21st Century Cold War.

The Clements Center for National Security, the Center for European Studies and the Center for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies hosted Michael Kimmage, Professor of History at Catholic University, for a book talk on his upcoming release Collisions: The Origins of the War in Ukraine and the New Global Instability.

The Clements Center for National Security, the LBJ Presidential Library and the UT-Austin History Department hosted Talmage Boston, historian and partner at the Dallas law firm Shackelford, Bowen, McKinley & Norton, LLP, for a book talk on How the Best Did It: Leadership Lessons From Our Top Presidents.

On Wednesday, April 10, the Clements-Strauss Asia Policy Program hosted Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance of Vrije Universiteit Brussel. Pardo discussed his book, South Korea’s Grand Strategy: Making Its Own Destiny.

On Tuesday, March 26, the Clements Center for National Security, the Army ROTC and the UT-Austin History Department hosted Kelly Eads and Dan Morgan for a book talk on their recent release: Black Hearts and Painted Guns: A Battalion’s Journey into Iraq’s Triangle of Death.

Marshall Kosloff, the Clements Center National Security media and journalism fellow, moderated a discussion with Jeff Decker, the managing director of Tech Transfer for Defense at Stanford University’s Doerr School of Sustainability, and Noah Sheinbaum, the founder of Frontdoor Defense, about their recent article, "Shining a Light on the Defense Department’s Industrial Base Problems."

Philip Taubman, a lecturer at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, discussed his latest book, In the Nation’s Service: The Life and Times of George P. Shultz. The conversation touched on the legacy of Secretary Shultz, his approach to the Soviet Union, and is filled with anecdotes from Philip's time in Moscow at the end of the Cold War.

Dr. Meg Reiss, the founder and CEO of of SolidIntel Inc., sat down with Marshal Kosloff, the national security media and journalism fellow at the Clements Center for National Security, to discuss supply chain risks and how the risks could be mitigated with investments in new technology. The conversation explored the upstream challenges, how to manage China's role in supply chains, and how to minimize risk factors for industry.

Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government, spoke about the history of isolationism in the United States, its role in the formulation of American foreign policy, and how the idea is now resurgent in U.S. domestic politics. The conversation is based on Charlie's most recent book, Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Aaron O’Connell, associate professor of history at the University of Texas at Austin and director of research for the Clements Center for National Security, hosts a discussion with Rob Rakove,  a lecturer in Stanford University's Program in International Relations. They discuss Rakove’s new book, Days of Opportunity: The United States and Afghanistan Before the Soviet Invasion.

Paul Edgar, the associate director of the William P. Clements, Jr. Center for National Security, moderated a discussion with Amb. Kurt Volker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009, and Gen. Tod Wolters, the former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, about the state of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the future of European security, and the impact of the conflict on global security. The conversation explored the evolution of President Putin's approach to relations with the West, the changes in Russian foreign policy, and what this may portend for regional security in the future.

Marc Selverstone, the director of presidential studies at the University of Virginia's Miller Center, co-chair of the Center’s Presidential Recordings Program, and professor of presidential studies, moderated a discussion with Francis Gavin, the Giovanni Agnelli distinguised professor and director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University; Sheyda Jahanbani, an associate professor at the University of Kansas; and Fredrik Logevall, the Laurence D. Belfer professor of international affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government and a professor of history at Harvard University. The conversation focused on President Lyndon Johnson's foreign policy and the recent book, LBJ's America: The Life and Legacies of Lyndon Baines Johnson.

Aynne Kokas, the C.K. Yen Professor at the Miller Center and an associate professor of media studies at the University of Virginia, spoke about her book Trafficking Data: How China is Winning the Battle for Digital Sovereignty. Kokas explained how the asymmetry in digital regulations between the United States and China, along with practices of private industry, have helped empower Beijing's broader effort to control digital data.

Carter Burwell, a Public Interest Declassification Board board member, moderated a discussion with Erin Mahan, Chief Historian at the Office of the Secretary of Defense; Adam Howard, the director of the Office of the Historian at the U.S. Department of State; and John Fox, a historian at the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The conversation discussed the role of historians and archivists inside the U.S. government, the role that historians play in preserving institutional knowledge, and how that role intersects with classification/declassification issues.

Ben Powell, a Public Interest Declassification Board board member, moderated a discussion with Adam Goldman, a reporter at the New York Times; Nomaan Merchant, a reporter at the Associated Press; Dustin Volz, a reporter with the Wall Street Journal; and Josh Gerstein, a journalist with Politico. The conversation talked about the role of the media in holding government accountable, the use of the Freedom of Information Act, and how the classification issue impacts the media business and the job of reporting. 

Dr. Will Inboden sat down with Sen. John Cornyn to discuss the issues of declassification and transparency, along with the ongoing debate about the renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The two also discussed the role of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Congressional oversight, and how Section 702's renewal is important for U.S. national security  

Paul Noel Chretien, a Public Interest Declassification Board Board Member and retired Central Intelligence Agency Officer, moderated a discussion with Tim Naftali, a clinical associate professor of History and Public Policy at New York University; Matthew Connelly, a professor of History at Columbia University; Warren Finch, the former director of the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library; and Mark Lawrence, the director of the Lyndon B. Johnson Presidential Library. The conversation explored the role of presidential libraries, the issues they face, and the future of these institutions.

Adam Klein moderated a panel with Jared Abrams, a research associate at Applied Research Laboratories; Ivan Lee, the founder & CEO of Datasaur.ai; Alex Joel, a senior project director and adjunct professor at Washington College of Law, American University; and Ezra Cohen, the former chair of Public Interest Declassification Board and Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security. The conversation touched on the role of technology in helping to manage classified material and the declassification process, along with how technology has increased the amount of classified material. The panel also discussed how AI could help scholars with research. This conversation was part of a multi-panel event on classification and U.S. democracy.

Aaron O'Connell, the director of research at the Clements Center for National Security, moderated a panel with Jim Goldgeier, a visiting scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation; Deborah Pearlstein, co-director of the Floersheimer Center for Constitutional Democracy; Jeremi Suri, the Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at UT Austin; and Sheena Greitens, the founding director of the Asia Policy Program at the University of Texas at Austin. The conversation focused on the classification process, scholarship, the need for more transparency, and why it matters for the writing of history. This was the first of a three panels exploring the topic of classification and democracy.  

Christy Abizaid, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, spoke about the duties of the center, terrorist threats to the United States and the role of counter-terrorism during an era of strategic competition. She also participated in a moderated question and answer session with Mark Pomar, discussing U.S. foreign policy, the counter-terrorism mission, and what it is like to work with in the intelligence community.  

Dr. Mark Pomar, a senior national security fellow at the Clements Center for National Security, moderated a discussion with Alexander Podrabinek, a Soviet and Russian human rights activist, journalist, and writer. The conversation explored the drivers of the return of totalitarian rule in Russia. The two also discussed the role of propaganda in shaping domestic opinion and the ongoing Russian resistance to authoritarianism.

Sean Mirski, a lawyer and U.S. foreign policy scholar, discussed his recent book, We May Dominate the World, which explores the rise of American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. Mirski discusses how the United States pushed European powers out of the hemisphere while simultaneously expanding its power abroad. The conversation then pivoted to the anxiety great powers often feel about losing power and what that may mean for other reiognal powers and their foreign policy.

Dr. Michael G. Vickers, former under secretary of defense for intelligence, joined Dr. Stephen Slick for a moderated discussion on his latest book, By All Means Available: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy. The conversation discussed the reasons for writing the book and the reasons why senior leaders should share as much as they can about intelligence. The two also discussed the U.S. response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the war against al-Qaeda, and U.S. operations in Iraq.

On this episode of Horns of Dilemma, Sheena Greitens moderated a panel discussion about the Russo-Ukrainian war and broader challenges to European security. The conversation featured Gen. Vince Brooks, U.S. Army ( Ret.), former Commander, United Nations Command/Combined Forces Command/United States Forces Korea; Susan Colbourn, associate director of the Program in American Grand Strategy, Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University; Simon Miles, assistant professor, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University; and Mark Pomar, Senior National Security Fellow, Clements Center for National Security. The group discussed the challenges the Ukrainian military faces, the risks of nuclear escalation, and the longer-term implications of the war for regional and global security.

Amb. Clint Williamson, Lead Coordinator of the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group (ACA) for Ukraine, spoke about the Russian military's war crimes in Ukraine and the efforts to investigate and prosecute Russian war criminals. The conversation began with an overview of the war and then shifted to the way in which investigators can collect evidence for international prosecution. 

David A. Merkel, managing director of Summit International Advisors, LLC, spoke about the Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War, the two sides' conflicting interests, and what that means for great power competition. The conversation also explored U.S. policy options in Central Asia and options for further engagement in the region.

Dr. Paul Edgar, the executive director of the William P. Clements, Jr. Center for National Security at the University of Texas-Austin, sat down with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson to discuss energy and national security. The conversation focused on energy security, its relevance for U.S. national security, and how a more effective energy policy would allow for a more robust response to global crises.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sat down for a conversation on the state of foreign affairs with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. The conversation touched on America's role in the world, the war in Ukraine, and the on-going challenges posed by illegal migration and the fentanyl trade. The two also discussed President Biden's belief that the world is now at an inflection point that requires continued American diplomatic leadership.  

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Stephen Slick, Dr. Paul Edgar, and Ms. Simone Ledeen spoke about Hamas' terrorist attack on Oct. 7th in Israel. The conversation began with a discussion about terrorism, human cruelty and Hamas' wanton killing of civilians in the attack. The three panelists then discussed different facets of the expected Israeli response, ranging from the role of the intelligence services to the operational planning for a ground operation. The conversation also explored the potential role of Iran and whether or not the localized conflict could expand and engulf the entire region in conflict. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Isaac B. Kardon discussed his book China's Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order. Kardon discussed his research into how the Chinese Communist Party thinks about maritime sovereignty, how it applies this thinking to individual disputes in its surrounding seas, and what that means for the United States and its allies. The discussion focused on how the Chinese Communist Party views international law, the role of The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and maritime dispute resolution. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.  

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Melvyn Leffler talks about his book, Confronting Saddam Hussein: George W. Bush and the Invasion of Iraq. Leffler discusses why he decided to write a book about the invasion of Iraq and how he went about doing so. He then outlined what he learned about this period of American history and how President Bush helped to shape U.S. policy, as Washington debated whether or not to invade. He then discussed the role of fear and anxiety and how these two emotions contributed to U.S. government thinking about threats, vulnerability, and how best to manage U.S. security concerns. Finally, he touched on how his own views of the war changed while writing the book and some of the larger take-aways from this period, including the need to always challenge one's own assumptions.  This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Jonathan Hunt talks about his book, The Nuclear Club: How America and the World Policed the Atom from Hiroshima to Vietnam. Hunt starts out with an anecdote about the origins of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty under U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson and his Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Walt Whitman Rostow. He then outlines the core argument of his book: that parallel to the nuclear revolution was a “counter-revolution” to prevent the universalization of nuclear weapons, therefore maintaining the dominance of the “nuclear club” of nuclear-armed states. He then discusses the sequence of events that led to the implementation of nuclear laws, including the Limited Test Ban Treaty and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Finally, he touches on the lessons of this narrative and how the politics of nuclear diplomacy during the Cold War led to the rise of a “paternal” U.S. presidency. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration Beth Sanner delivers a candid and enriching lecture about being an intelligence professional at the highest level in the White House. Among many duties, this job involved serving as U.S. President Donald Trump's intelligence briefer. Ms. Sanner starts off her talk by describing the history of the president's daily intelligence briefing, then dives into how the briefings are crafted. She discusses what it means to be an intelligence officer and the importance of these briefs to the entire national security community. Then, she describes the day-to-day of delivering intelligence to President Trump, what worked best, and the lessons she learned in the process. This episode is a must-listen for anyone considering a career in the intelligence and national security community.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, William Inboden, editor-in-chief of the Texas National Security Review and executive director of the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin, sat down with Amb. Kay Bailey Hutchison, former United States senator from Texas and, later, the U.S. permanent representative to NATO. The two had a thoughtful and wide-ranging conversation about European security and global energy policy. First, the two discussed Inboden’s new book, The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan in the White House and the World, and how President Dwight D. Eisenhower helped shape President Reagan’s foreign policy strategy. Then, they talked about Amb. Hutchison’s tenure at NATO and how the war in Ukraine has affected the alliance. In particular, she touched on the need for U.S. leadership to drive solidarity within the alliance and the importance of continued U.S. support for Ukraine. Finally, the two discussed European views of China and the latest work done by the Kay Bailey Hutchison Energy Center at the University of Texas at Austin. This episode was recorded in Austin, Texas.

In this week’s Horns of a Dilemma, Maj. Ben Griffin, the Chief of the Military History Division at West Point, discusses his new book, Reagan's War Stories: A Cold War Presidency. In the book, Ben tells three stories about United States President Ronald Reagan, the President who ushered in the end of the Cold War. The book touches on Reagan’s relationship with many writers and figures from pop culture, including writer Tom Clancy. In part of this episode, Griffin discusses the relationship between the two and how President Reagan saw Clancy’s book, Red Storm Rising, as a credible war game that influenced his negotiations with Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev over nuclear weapons. Griffin also touches on how Clancy’s books, including The Hunt for Red October, shaped his own life.

Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Ann Ganzer of the State Department's Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation recently visited the University of Texas, Austin. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Ganzer sits down with Clements Center Associate Director Paul Edgar to discuss many of the issues she discussed with students. The issues under her purview are the things that keep policy makers up at night--the proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, security questions related to the civilian use of nuclear power, and the security challenges posed by new technologies such as advanced unmanned aerial vehicles or semiconductors, especially as they could be used to precisely deliver deadly weapons. The discussion ranges from the type of people the State Department needs to recruit, to Russian disinformation campaigns, to concerns over threats to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant during Russia's war in Ukraine.  This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Marine Corps Gen. (Ret) Robert Neller joins University of Texas, Austin Professor Paul Pope to discuss the recent force structure and doctrine changes in the Marine Corps, intended to create a force ready to fight a war with China. Neller begins with a basic overview of the contemporary security environment, and traces the requirements that emerge all the way through hard choices about the composition, training, and mission of the Marine Corps. This is a rare, insightful look into the process of adapting a military service for changing requirements from someone who once led that service. While it is illuminating for understanding the current debate surrounding Marine Corps expeditionary advanced base operations, the principles and choices Neller lays out provide insight into the challenges of strategic defense planning for the entire U.S. military. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and was co-hosted by the University's Alexander Hamilton Society.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, addresses the challenging questions of how to allocate defense spending to meet American strategic interests around the globe. Eaglen discusses the relationship between strategy and budget, as well as how "reality always gets a vote" and often results in a need to spend money in areas that were not projected to be strategic priorities. Eaglen engages in a broad-ranging question and answer session with members of the audience which provides a comprehensive overview of the relationship between strategy, politics, defense spending, and capabilities on the ground for the United States and its allies. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

Napoleon once said that leaders are "dealers in hope." While such a label might seem to fit Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky, it fits more awkwardly on Russian President Vladimir Putin. How has the leadership of these two men shaped the onset and current progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Would the invasion have happened at all, or if had happened would it have progressed differently under different leadership? These are the fundamental questions addressed in this week's Horns of a Dilemma. Texas National Security Review Executive Editor Doyle Hodges is joined by Brown University Professor (and member of the TNSR Editorial Board) Rose McDermott to discuss political psychology, leadership, and the war in Ukraine.  This discussion ranges from the origins, strengths, and limits of political psychology to analysis of the leaders involved in the conflict to literary criticism of two great Russian novels.  Professor McDermott is also a contributor to a new book from Cornell University Press, The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age

In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, Daniel Runde of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, speaks about his new book, The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power.  Liberals and conservatives are frequently divided over foreign policy preferences, with conservatives favoring hard power, such as military might, and liberals emphasizing soft power elements, such as leadership in international organizations. Runde approaches foreign policy from a conservative perspective but concludes that competition between the United States and rivals like Russia or China is more likely to play out in the arena of soft power than in hard power confrontations. Runde therefore argues that without leadership in soft power, the United States is likely to find itself on the losing side in great power competition. This is a novel and compelling argument about the importance of American leadership. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

The turnover between U.S. presidential administrations can be a time of uncertainty and vulnerability. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from former National Security Advisor Stephen J. Hadley, who discusses the forthcoming volume, Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama. This book, a collection of transition memoranda prepared by National Security Council staffers, reflections by the principals, and analysis by scholars, is an unprecedented glimpse into the transition process, as well as an early comprehensive history of the George W. Bush administration’s foreign policy. Hadley discusses the book and the transition process with Clements Center Executive Director Will Inboden, who worked for Hadley at the time on the National Security Council, and who offers his own insights and recollections. This book and this discussion are a remarkable "second draft" of history--benefiting from more access and context than contemporaneous journalism can allow, and leveraging fresh recollections and insights into events whose implications have not yet fully played out.  This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin on February 14, 2023.

A year ago, as Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine was proving not to be the quick and easy victory Vladimir Putin had expected, some observers speculated that the bungled decision to invade his neighbor could be Putin's undoing.  The idea of a Russian state without Putin raised alluring prospects of reform. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, American University Professor Joseph Torigian discusses the dynamics of authoritarian succession. His book, Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion: Elite Power Struggles in the Soviet Union and China After Stalin and Mao, contradicts conventional scholarship. While the most significant autocratic power transitions of the 20th Century did result in more reform-minded leaders in the Soviet Union and China, Torigian argues that Nikita Kruschev and Deng Xiaoping earned their leadership positions the old-fashioned way: by intrigue, politicking, and making promises to gain the support of the military and security services. Torigian's talk is both a fascinating history, and an important caution in setting expectations for leadership transition in Russia and China, whenever and however it may occur. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we listen to a discussion between Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. Brands and Inboden discuss a book written by Brands and Michael Beckley, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China. While many pundits project conflict between the United States and China (most recently, Air Force General Michael Minihan), Brands’ prognosis stands out for its thoughtfulness and for its recognition that armed conflict between these two superpowers would be militarily and financially disastrous for the world. By focusing on the factors that seem to aggravate risk over the next several years, Brands provides a compelling description of how the United States might safely navigate this perilous period in U.S.-Sino competition. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin in October 2022.

On this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma Clement Center Senior National Security Fellow Mark Pomar, who helped to oversee the Russian language broadcasts of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty during the Cold War, discusses his book, Cold War Radio: The Russian Broadcasts of Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Pomar is joined by Professor Kiril Avramov in a great discussion of both how the Russian language broadcasts helped to advance American interests, and how information figures in contemporary conflicts, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin in October 2022.

Many great figures in American history are full of contradictions. Thomas Jefferson wrote stirringly about liberty while owning human beings as property. Woodrow Wilson was both the idealistic author of the 14 Points, and a racist who re-segregated the federal work force. But few figures in American history embody as many contradictions as the two featured in this week's Horns of a Dilemma: Lyndon Johnson, and J. Edgar Hoover. Yale Professor Beverly Gage discusses her new biography of Hoover, G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century. Beause she is speaking at the LBJ library, she focuses particularly on the relationship between Hoover and Johnson. Her talk is humorous, informative, and helps to highlight the way in which Hoover played a critical role in both securing and undermining many of the civil liberties that define contemporary American society.  

This week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma features author and public intellectual Walter Russell Mead speaking about his book, The Arc of a Covenant: The United States, Israel, and the Fate of the Jewish People. As Mead discusses, the trope that American foreign policy toward Israel can be explained by the outsized influence of Jewish people in American government is common, not only among fringe thinkers and conspiracy theorists, but even among audiences that otherwise display considerable sophistication. Seeking to dispel this myth, Mead set out in this book to articulate what does explain American foreign policy toward Israel. The result is a fascinating glimpse into American idealism and shifts in American domestic politics. This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin.

On the second anniversary of the January 6 insurrection, Horns of a Dilemma features a talk by University of Texas, Austin Professor Jeremi Suri about his new book, Civil War by Other Means: America's Long and Unfinished Fight for Democracy. In seeking to understand the events of January 6, 2021, Suri looks to the American Civil War and the period of reconstruction that followed. He finds that, far from being unprecedented, the type of political violence seen at the U.S. Capitol two years ago has deep roots in America's past.  Suri's talk is both sobering and hopeful. Although Suri emphasizes some of the most troubling parts of American history, which are often ignored in history texts, he does so in the firm belief that deeper knowledge and better understanding of the roots of today's political violence and  intimidation can enable Americans to address the underlying causes, and help to make American society stronger and more just.  This talk was given in November 2021 at the University of Texas, Austin.

Many stories of the Battle of Midway highlight the role of cryptography in breaking Japanese codes and the herculean effort to repair USS Yorktown after the battle of the Coral Sea so that she could participate in the battle. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, author Steven McGregor highlights a less-known but equally important aspect: the SBD Dauntless dive bomber. Dive bombing was a crucial technology during World War II that pushed the bounds of aerodynamics by requiring an aircraft that could maintain a near-vertical dive and withstand the tremendous forces of pulling out, all while carrying bombs weighing up to 1,000 pounds.  McGregor tells the story through the pivotal role played by three German-Americans: Chester Nimitz, commander of the Pacific Fleet; Ed Heineman, the designer of the Dauntless; and Norman "Dusty" Kleiss, the pilot whose bombs delivered the fatal blow to the Japanese carrier IJS Kaga. This is a great discussion of a battle that shaped the course of World War II in the Pacific and cemented the importance of the aircraft carrier in American seapower.

The deployment of the Soviet SS-20 missile system in the 1970s and 1980s, and U.S. plans to deploy the Pershing II and Ground Launched Cruise Missile in response, spurred a crisis within NATO over U.S. nuclear deterrence in Europe. Susan Colbourn, associate director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, tells the story of this period in her new book, Euromissiles: The Nuclear Weapons that Nearly Destroyed NATO.  In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Colbourn describes how concerns over intermediate range nuclear missiles in Europe involved much more than just questions of deterrence and superpower competition. As she relates the difficult give-and-take between superpowers and among allies, she highlights the way in which domestic politics, the international anti-nuclear movement, alliance burden sharing, and the structure of political, economic, and military power in Europe all played pivotal roles. This story is an intriguing chapter in NATO's history that is not widely understood and provides important context as Europe begins to re-arm response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. This event was held at the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin.

Nathan Law first came to international prominence as a student leader of the Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong in 2014.  In the years that followed, he was elected as the youngest parliamentarian in Hong Kong's history, debarred from holding office, convicted for his activities in leading student protests, jailed, released, and exiled--all before his 30th birthday. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Law joins Professor Sheena Greitens, director of the Asia Policy Program at the University of Texas, Austin, to discuss his book Freedom: How We Lose It and How We Fight Back.  This is a powerful discussion that quietly showcases the bravery, commitment, and patriotism of a young man fighting for his city and fellow citizens.  

In this week's epsidode of Horns of a Dilemma, Sheena Greitens, head of the Asia Policy Program at the University of Texas, Austin, joins author Nury Turkel to discuss Turkel's book, No Escape: The True Story of China's Genocide of the Uyghurs. Turkel, who was born in a re-education camp during China's culturual revolution, uses his own experiences, as well as interviews with survivors of the camps in western China to tell the story of China's campaign against the Uyghur people. The picture that emerges in his conversation with Greitens is urgent, powerful, and chilling.  This event was recorded at the University of Texas, Austin, and was co-sponsored by the Clements Center and the Bech-Loughlin First Amendment Center.

Before he became governor of California and later president of the United States, Ronald Reagan was an actor. In the 1940 film, Knute Rockne: All American, Reagan portrayed Notre Dame running back George Gipp who, on his deathbed from pneumonia, told Coach Rockne to have the team "win just one for the Gipper." Rockne related the line to his team in a moving speech, which inspired them to come from behind to upset an undefeated West Point team in 1928. Reagan used the line "win one for the Gipper" extensively during his presidency, referring to himself as "the Gipper." In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, Texas National Security Review editor-in-chief Will Inboden joins Editorial Board Chair Frank Gavin to discuss Inboden's new biography of Reagan, Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan,  the Cold War, and the World on the Brink. As Inboden points out, many of Reagan's signature victories, including his pivotal role in defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War, seem inevitable in retrospect, but at the time, they were often seen as anything but inevitable. Reagan's unwavering faith in his vision for the country was often at odds with expert assessments. Inboden and Gavin discuss the faith, fortunes, and failures that marked Reagan's presidency. This is a rich discussion that helps cast Reagan's achievements in a new light, and promotes a deeper understanding of just what a remarkable achievement it was to secure a peaceful American victory in the Cold War.

This week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma is a must-listen for anyone who knows that microchips are a national security issue, but perhaps doesn't really understand just why chips are so strategically important. It is equally enlightening for those who have been closely following the security issues around microchips and are eager to know more. Professor Chris Miller of the Fletcher School at Tufts University gives a detailed, accessible overview of what microchips are, how they are used, where and how they are made, and the implications of the microchip supply chain for national security.  His talk is based on his book, Chip Wars: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. Miller spoke in early November at the University of Texas, Austin.

Politics is serious business. According to Aristotle, "the main concern of politics is to engender a certain character in the citizens and to make them good and disposed to perform noble actions." But some political leaders seek to manipulate passions and prejudices, rather than appealing to reason and pursuing a noble end. The ancient Greeks called such leaders "demagogues."  In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Charles Zug of the University of Colorado-Colorado Springs discusses the history of demagogues in American politics.  Zug's discussion is at once philosophical and practical, examining the nature of demagogues, as well as how and when they have appeared in American life. This fascinating talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

Civil-military relations is not a topic that gets many hearts racing. Yet attention to the relationship between the military and the society it serves has become more urgent after it was revealed that Gen. Mark Milley, the nation's most senior military officer, worked with cabinet and sub-cabinet officials to frustrate the desire of President Donald Trump to use the American military in ways Milley viewed as inappropriate. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Texas National Security Review Executive Editor Doyle Hodges is joined by three scholars of civil-military relations who have published in War on the Rocks or TNSR (or both) on the topic, to discuss the state of American civil-military relations. Alice Friend, Ron Krebs, and Risa Brooks bring a depth of insight and experience that helps to better illuminate a topic critical to American democracy.

The field of strategy is littered with authors whose works are often-quoted but seldom-read. While Clausewitz is likely the foremost example of such an author, the naval strategists Alfred Thayer Mahan and Sir Julian Corbett are not far behind.  In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Kevin McCranie of the U.S. Naval War College discusses his book, Mahan, Corbett, and the Foundations of Naval Strategic Thought. McCranie's talk provides an overview of the writings of both naval thinkers, and highlights how their works complement each other and continue to exert a profound influence on modern strategy. This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Katie Stallard, a journalist and scholar, speaks about her book, Dancing on Bones: History and Power in China, Russia, and North Korea. Stallard details how totalitarian regimes use a doctored version of history--especially history regarding World War II--to forcibly shape public remembrance in a way that reinforces the goals of the regime. This effort to rewrite history ranges from the careful omission of facts surrounding Soviet atrocities to an entirely fictionalized account of Kim Jong Il's exploits during the war.  Stallard's fascinating study helps illuminate how the control of history can be a critical instrument of power, and provide a potent means to bolster the legitimacy of even the most horrific actions by a totalitarian leader. This talk was recorded at the University of Texas, Austin.

As the European Union has evolved over the past 20 years into a more cohesive social, economic, and political entity, one area of integration has lagged behind the others: defense. This is due to the extensive overlap in membership between the European Union and NATO, and to the reluctance of European governments to spend large sums on their militaries. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, a former Polish defense minister, foreign minister, and speaker of the Polish parliament who is currently serving as a member of the European Parliament argues that Europe should develop its own military force. Radoslaw Sikorski  makes the case that a European army, independent of NATO, would be valuable in responding to and deterring Russian aggression, as well as dealing with other distinctly European challenges--such as migration--that do not directly implicate American security interests. This event was recorded at an event sponsored by the Polish Club at the University of Texas, Austin, and co-sponsored in part by the Clements Center for National Security.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy Daniel Fata discusses the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Fata explains how decades of U.S. policy under  administrations of both parties was based on what he describes as wishful thinking. He argues that this may have emboldened Vladimir Putin to believe that he could invade his neighbor without serious consequences. Fata analyzes the conduct of the war, as well how it may shape the international system for years to come. This event was recorded at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma,  Charles Edel, the inaugural Australia chair at CSIS in Washington, DC, discusses Australia's "strategic revolution," which focuses on building diplomatic, economic, and military capacity to resist coercion by China. The recent AUKUS nuclear submarine deal is one manifestation of this effort, but as Edel explains, the deal is just one part of a larger strategic realignment, which is likely to become increasingly important to U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Ideologies help people understand the world around them. They provide a lens through which we arrange events and images into patterns, and they offer a menu of actions that seem appropriate in response to that pattern. Although leaders and states often subscribe consciously to certain ideologies, some ideas--such as religion or a belief in the goodness of an ideal like "freedom" or "democracy"--operate at such a fundamental level that we may not recognize them as ideologies at all.  This week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma features a panel of contributors to a new book on the influence of ideology in American foreign relations. Christopher McKnight Nichols of Ohio State University, Raymond Haberski, Jr, of Indiana University, and Emily Conroy-Krutz of Michigan State University join host Jeremi Suri of the University of Texas, Austin to discuss what ideology is, and explore the ways in which it has shaped, and continues to shape, America's role in the world.  This discussion was hosted at the University of Texas, Austin on September 7, 2022.

Phrases such as, "history is written by the victors," while often cycnical, hint at a fundamental truth: Historical events assume different significance depending on the perspective from which they are viewed. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Elisabeth Leake of Leeds University discusses her book, Afghan Crucible, which examines the war in Afghanistan from a variety of different historical, political, and geographic perspectives. Her analysis gives a rich and nuanced view of the role that this small, impoverished nation has played in shaping the foreign policy destiny of great powers, and of shaping the lives of those who have been touched by the conflict there.

The British empire embarked on a successful and far-reaching anti-slavery campaign in the first half of the 19th century, one of the first global humanitarian efforts of its kind. Professor Maeve Ryan of Kings College London joins Texas National Security Review editor in chief and Clements Center executive director Will Inboden for a fascinating discusion of Ryan's book, Humanitarian Governance and the British Antislavery World System, published in April by Yale University Press.  Ryan discusses the complicated motives of the British anti-slavery campaign, which capitalized on wounded British national pride after the loss of the American colonies, economic motives, and sincere moral outrage. She also details the morally complicated efforts at "disposal" of the human cargoes embarked in slave ships captured by the Royal Navy.  These efforts included  resettlement and other projects in which narratives of both compassion and control figure prominently.  

A cynic might argue that a Venn diagram of good legal compliance, good politics, good strategy, and, morally good behavior has no space where all four elements intersect. This week's guests on Horns of a Dilemma argue that these virtues coincide in the protection of civilians from harm during war. Sahr Muhammedally and Dan Mahanty, both of the Center for Civilians in Conflict, are the authors of The Human Factor: The Enduring Relevance of Protecting Civilians in Future Wars, which appears in Vol 5/Iss 3 of the Texas National Security Review.  The authors join TNSR executive editor Doyle Hodges to discuss their article, the law and policy of civilian harm mitigation, and best practices that can help to protect civilians without sacrificing military effectiveness. This discussion is especially relevant the news is filled with stories and images of attacks against civilians by Russian forces in Ukraine.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Charles Edel discusses the big questions in U.S.-Chinese relations. He examines efforts under the Biden administration to deal with these questions, and projects what questions may define the relationship going forward. As Edel makes clear, the relationship between America and China is long, and has often been fraught with uncertainty.  As the world's two largest economic and military powers, this relationship will be critical to the state of world affairs and global prosperity in the future. This talk was recorded at the Clements Center Summer Seminar in History and Statecraft held in Beaver Creek, Colorado.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, chair of the Texas National Security Review editorial board Frank Gavin speaks about the role of history in foreign policy, previewing his forthcoming book. Gavin's talk is both a personal and a disciplinary reflection, as well as a penetrating analysis of how history influences the choices of policymakers. This discussion was recorded during the Clements Center Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft held at Beaver Creek, Colorado.

”Civil-military relations” is a term that covers a multitude of sins. Scholars of civil-military relations write on topics ranging from recruiting and retention to military coups to norms of professional military behavior. This week’s Horns of a Dilemma speaker, Dr. Kori Schake, argues that civil-military relations in the United States have historically been strong and stable. So why are U.S. civil-military relations an important topic of study and debate? As Schake observes, Americans tend to put off addressing potential problems until they are worried about them. So, especially in light of challenges to the norms of strong and stable civil-military relations associated with a highly polarized partisan environment, worrying about healthy civil-military relations is ... healthy. This talk was delivered at the Clements Center Summer Seminar in History and Statecraft held in Beaver Creek, Colorado in July.  

This episode is the second part of a conversation between four people who knew the late Robert Jervis well: Francis Gavin of the Kissinger Center and chair of the editorial board of the Texas National Security Review; Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl; Mira Rapp-Hooper, a member of the National Security Council staff, where she is responsible for an array of Indo-Pacific issues; and Derek Chollet, the counselor of the State Department. Do not miss the first episode! The views expressed here, of course, are personal and not those of the U.S. government.

Many of those who follow War on the Rocks and the Texas National Security Review mourned the passing of Robert Jervis, the towering scholar of international relations who defined a field and mentored generations of scholars and policymakers. Four of his close friends, colleagues, and protégés sat down to remember his legacy, his intellectual contributions, and his kindness. It is a fascinating discussion that touches on a variety of important issues related to international security. This episode, which is the first of two parts, is hosted by Francis Gavin of the Kissinger Center and chair of the editorial board of the Texas National Security Review. He is joined by Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl; Mira Rapp-Hooper, a member of the staff of the National Security Council, where she is responsible for an array of Indo-Pacific issues; and Derek Chollet, the counselor of the State Department. The views expressed here, of course, are personal and not those of the U.S. government.

"Political scientist Alexander Wendt famously (well, in political science circles anyway) observed of the international system that "anarchy is what states make of it." In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we explore the degree to which this observation is true not only of the international system, but also of the mental constructs that states, leaders, and citizens use to think about the concept of an international system and their place in it. Andrew Ehrhardt, an Ernest May post-doctoral fellow in history and policy at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, is the author of Everyman His Own Philosopher of History: Notions of Historical Process in the Study and Practice of Foreign Policy, which appears in Vol 5/Iss 3 of the Texas National Security Review. Ehrhardt joins TNSR Executive Editor Doyle Hodges to discuss the article and how this view of history affects questions of security in international and domestic politics today.”  

Over two decades after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the American conception of terrorists and terrorism is slowly changing. While threats from foreign extremist organizations still exist, the most recent Department of Homeland Security advisory bulletin focused on the threat from domestic extremist groups. In Vol 5/Iss 2 of the Texas National Security Review, former federal prosecutor Barbara McQuade evaluates the Biden administration's strategy for countering domestic terrorism and offers some recommendations of her own. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, McQuade joins TNSR Executive Editor Doyle Hodges to discuss her article and evaluate the current legal and policy environment surrounding domestic terrorism.

Forty years ago this week, U.S. President Ronald Reagan spoke to the British Parliament in Westminster. The speech is an iconic encapsulation of Reagan’s view of the Cold War conflict between Western democracies and the totalitarian states of the Warsaw Pact. In addition to its powerful rhetorical impact, this speech motivated policy change: Less than a year after the speech was delivered, the U.S. Congress approved the formation of the National Endowment for Democracy to aid democracy movements abroad. In this week’s episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Clements Center Executive Director (and TNSR Editor in Chief) Will Inboden sits down with Rachel Hoff, policy director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, to discuss the speech and its legacy.

Economic sanctions are often regarded as a relatively weak tool, especially in response to the use of military force. In part, this stems from scholarship, which suggests that economic sanctions alone rarely lead to war termination. In Vol 3/Iss 2 of Texas National Security Review, however, Erik Sand makes an interesting argument: The effect of sanctions and economic isolation may not be to lead directly to war termination, but rather to pressure a regime, such that they choose riskier strategies than they would without the sanctions in place. Sand joins us on this week’s episode of Horns of a Dilemma to discuss his article, and how this effect may apply to the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine.

The United Nations Human Rights Council has come under criticism for including as members many states whose human rights record is controversial, at best. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Dr. Rana Inboden discusses her new book, China and the International Human Rights Regime, which details (among other things) how one of those states, China, used its position on the council during the institution building phase to try to undercut the strength and effectiveness of the council's tools. While Inboden shows that China was at least partly successful in doing so, the effort that China put in to trying not to appear to be opposed to human rights may be telling. Despite criticism that the U.N. human rights regime is toothless, it is still able to shape the behavior of a powerful state--even if only by shaping their desire not to be seen as human rights violators. Or, as the French author Francois de la Rochefoucauld said, "Hypocrisy is the tribute that vice pays to virtue."

James Gow observed in his book War and War Crimes that, while many war crimes are so obvious that most people "know them when we see them," the very existence of the concept of a war crime gives meaning to a critical, if somewhat paradoxical premise: Even in war, there are rules. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, University of Texas Law School Professor Derek Jinks discusses the legal landscape that developed after World War II, which defines the modern concept of war crimes. He also discusses options for investigation, jurisdiction, and accountability for the many apparent war crimes being committed by Russian forces in their invasion of Ukraine.  This discussion was sponsored by the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas, Austin.

Few countries in Europe have experienced the vicissitudes of changing political order as directly as Poland. For centuries, Poland was caught between Russia and Germany, often serving as a highway through which one great power or another traveled en route to conquering other territories. This week's Horns of a Dilemma speaker knows this better than most: Lech Walesa was the leader of the Solidarity labor movement in Poland under Communist rule and later became the first freely elected president of Poland. Walesa spoke recently at the University of Texas, Austin, about the war in Ukraine, Putin's ambitions for Russia, a changing political order, and the need for the United States to assume a leading role in this new order. Though speaking through a translator, Walesa's wit, wisdom, and humanity shine through, giving a glimpse of just how he was able to inspire people to join him in transforming his country.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, historian Paul Kennedy speaks about his new book, Victory at Sea: Naval Power and the Transformation of the Global Order in World War II. The book is unusual in that it is beautifully illustrated with numerous paintings by the late maritime artist Ian Marhsall. Kennedy discusses the origins of his collaboration with Marshall--how he had originally encouraged Marshall to publish a collection of his paintings with a foreword by Kennedy--and how this grew into a volume that builds from the paintings to a sweeping view of the military, technological, and social changes brought by World War II, which dramatically altered the global order. This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin, and hosted by the Clements Center for National Security.

Sovereignty is one of the most durable concepts in international relations. Since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, the concept of sovereignty has defined the political privileges of states. But when a state is doing things that run counter to another state's interest, the concept of sovereignty limits the tools available to change the offending behavior. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear first-hand about how the tools that are available--often abbreviated as DIME for diplomacy, information, military, and economics--were used during the last administration to try to influence the authoritarian regimes in Venezuela and Cuba. Carrie Filipetti, a former State Department official responsible for American policy toward these regimes, analyzes what worked, what didn't, and why. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and jointly hosted by the Clements Center and the Alexander Hamilton Society.

If asked sit down at a board with 64 alternately colored squares you expect to play a game, but you may not know whether it will be chess or checkers. The question of which game you will play is a question of order. Usually, this order is not formally written down anywhere. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, University of Florence professor Patrick Cohrs examines how the rules of political order may change. Cohrs discusses his new book The New Atlantic Order: The Transformation of International Politics 1860-1933, which focuses on the the period leading up to and following the World War I, but his insights have value in understanding the contemporary world where the rules  seem to be changing even as the game is played. This event was recorded at the University of Texas, Austin.  

The war in Vietnam marked a watershed in American domestic politics: bitter division over the goals and methods of the American war effort intersected with the civil rights movement, questioning of traditional social values, and the ubiquitous rise of broadcast television which brought these issues into American homes each evening, resulting in a widespread loss of faith in institutions and government among Americans. While this narrative has become conventional wisdom in American history, this week's guest, Mark Lawrence, argues in his new book, The End of Ambition: The United States and the Third World in the Vietnam Era, that the war in Vietnam marked dramatic re-thinking of ambitions in U.S. foreign policy, as well. Lawrence tracks the arc of American involvement abroad from the idealism of the Kennedy administration, through the pragmatic deal-making of the Johnson administration, to the cynical realism of the Nixon administration. Lawrence traces as well, how this development was paralleled by the rise of leaders in the developing world whose idealism was tempered with pragmatism and, at times, radicalism.  Lawrence's book is a fascinating biography of modern American foreign policy in its formative years.  

Clausewitz--or at least the version of Clausewitz that is taught in many war colleges--has bedeviled generations of students by offering several "trinities." First, there is the relationship between emotion, chance, and reason which governs events in war. Emotion itself can be broken down as a balance between hatred, violence, and primordial enmity.  At the level of strategy, however, the trinity on which most students of Clausewitz focus is the relationship between the army, the government, and the people. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, a panel of three experts discusses the ongoing Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. While they didn't set out to discuss a Clausewitzian trinity, Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses, Mark Pomar of the Clements Center for National Security, and Alexandra Sukalo, also of the Clements Center, offer insights that focus our attention exactly on these three critical elements. This discussion was moderated by Texas National Security Review Executive Editor Doyle Hodges, and was recorded on April 7, 2022.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from author and journalist Joby Warrick about his new book, Red Line: The Unraveling of Syria and America's Race to Destroy the Most Dangerous Arsenal in the World. Warrick details the international effort to find, collect, remove, and destroy Syria's stockpile of Sarin nerve agent in 2013. Although the story was largely overshadowed at the time by the subsequent increase in violence in Syria's civil war and the rise of the organization that became ISIL, this effort was unprecedented in destroying an arsenal that, had it fallen into the hands of terrorists or been further used by the Asad regime, could have caused untold thousands of deaths and injuries.  Warrick spoke at the University of Texas, Austin, and is introduced by Paul Edgar, Associate Director of the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas, Austin.

Josef Stalin is supposed to have said, "The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of a million men is a statistic." While Stalin seemed to take that principle as an exhortation to commit crimes so vast that they could only be comprehended as statistics, the saying also suggests that something that seems abstract when it is happening to thousands of people we don't know may assume urgency when it takes on a human face. The case of WNBA Phoenix Mercury star Brittney Griner, who has been detained in Moscow since February 17 may be a case in point.  While we know relatively little about Griner's arrest and detention, there is a long history of states arresting foreign citizens and putting them on trial as a way of obtaining concessions from the parent state of the detainee. In Vol 5/Iss 1 of the Texas National Security Review, Professor Danielle Gilbert and Gaëlle Rivard-Piche discuss this phenomenon of "hostage diplomacy" in the context of the so-called two Michaels case involving China, Canada, and the United States in their article Caught Between Giants: Hostage Diplomacy and Negotiation Strategy for Middle Powers. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Gilbert joins TNSR Executive Editor Doyle Hodges to talk about the article, the concept of hostage diplomacy, and whether or how it may be at work in tensions between Russia and the West arising from Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine.  

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russian cyber and information operations boasted a fearsome reputation. Surprisingly, Russian cyber operations don't seem to have played a major role in the invasion, and Ukrainian information operations have routinely bested often-clumsy Russian efforts. As Christopher Krebs, former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, explains in this week's Horns of a Dilemma, the Russian invasion was preceded by cyber attacks, but a combination of skilled response by the Ukrainian government and adroit sharing of intelligence by the United States and western partners has blunted the effectiveness of Russian cyber and information operations. Krebs points out that despite the stymied Russian cyber and information campaign (and partly because of its lack of success) this is a very dangerous time in the world of cyber security and information warfare. This conversation was recorded at the University of Texas, Austin, where Krebs spoke on March 10 as part of the Brumley Fellows program at the Strauss Center. The conversation was hosted by Bobby Chesney, director of the Strauss Center.

Vladimir Putin's announcement that he had ordered Russian nuclear forces to a heightened alert posture in response to Western sanctions was a sobering reminder of the way in which nuclear weapons may empower and embolden a state to violate international law and norms. For nearly two decades, the top security concern of United States leaders regarding Iran has been preventing the leaders of the Islamic Republic from attaining this same power. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy discuss the history, current status, and future of these efforts. This event was recorded live at the University of Texas, Austin on February 8, 2022.

Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is remembered for many things, among them his iconic observation that, "There are known knowns--there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns--that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know." The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is full of reminders of the importance of understanding what we know, recognizing what we don't know, and being open to the idea that there is likely more we don't yet know. In order to help make sense of it, the Clements Center for National Security, Asia Policy Program, LBJ School of Public Affairs, Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Intelligence Studies Project, and Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies at the University of Texas, Austin hosted "War in Ukraine: An Expert Panel Discussion" on Wednesday, March 2. The experts included Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center (and editor-in-chief of TNSR); Bobby Chesney, director of the Strauss Center; Jeremi Suri, Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at the University of Texas, Austin; Sheena Greitens, founding director of the Asia Policy Program; Stephen Slick, director of the Intelligence Studies Project; Alexandra Sukalo, postdoctoral fellow at the Clements Center; and, Zoltán Fehér, predoctoral fellow at the Clements Center, and a former Hungarian diplomat. This discussion is essential listening for a better understanding of the ongoing aggressive war being waged by Russia and its implications for international security.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Joanna Chiu, author of China Unbound: A New World Disorder. Informed by over a decade reporting on human rights in China, Chiu brings a nuanced view of the way in which Western leaders, both those who had faith in the ability of capitalism to bring democratic reform, and those who adopted a hard-nosed realpolitik view, have been complicit in China's rise and have enabled widespread suppression of free expression and human rights abuses by the Chinese Communist Party.  Chiu illuminates the role of economics, power politics, and the narrow pursuit of Western self-interest in helping to give rise to a Chinese state that stands opposed to Western values. This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin as part of the Asia Policy Program, sponsored jointly by the Clements Center for National Security and the Strauss Center for International Security and Law. Chiu is introduced by Professor Sheena Greitens, founding director of the Asia Policy Program.

In the late 1980's a Ukrainian-born immigrant to the United States who took the stage name Yakov Smirnoff became a brief comedy sensation with lines such as, "In Russia, we have only two TV channels. Channel 1 is propaganda. Channel 2 is a KGB officer telling you to turn back to channel one." This week's Horns of a Dilemma podcast explores the uncomfortable ways in which jokes about stifled expression in the Soviet Union still resonate in Russia today. Vladimir Kara-Murza is a Russian politician and opposition leader who was twice poisoned and left in a coma by agents of Vladimir Putin's regime. Kara-Murza speaks with Professor Kiril Avramov of the Strauss Center's Intelligence Studies Project and the Global Disinformation Laboratory at the University of Texas, Austin, about freedom of expression and political dissent in contemporary Russia under Putin.  Kara-Murza and Avramov discuss the role of propaganda, the rigging of elections, and the effect of social media on Putin's control of information. They conclude with an analysis of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

Cyber security presents a particular challenge because, in addition to the rapidly changing threat environment and enormous potential attack surface, no single person or organizaiton has authority over all of the players whose cooperation is necessary to keep public and private networks and information secure. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, Bobby Chesney, director of the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin, speaks with Brandon Wales, executive director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). Wales' job is to ensure effective collaboration in cyber security efforts. In this discussion, he highlights the authorities available to CISA and discusses responses to several recent vulnerabilities. This discussion was held as part of the "Cyber 9/12 Challenge" conducted by the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we listen to a discussion between Clements Center Executive Director (and TNSR editor in chief) Will Inboden, and Professor Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. They are talking about Brands' new book, Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About About Great Power Rivalry Today.  While the  geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China is frequently described as "a new Cold War," Brands and Inboden go far deeper than a mere surface comparison to illuminate the ways in which the Cold War experience may help to guide American strategists in the competition with China, as well as ways in which policymakers would be ill-advised to treat today's strategic challenges as a sequel to the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Professor Sandra Fahy of Carleton University about the way in which states use video evidence to try to falsely defend themselves against claims of human rights abuses. While many of us might associate misleading video with modern technology, such as deep-fakes, Fahy traces the phenomenon to the earliest days of video and shows how it continues through the present in states such as Korea, China, and Afghanistan under the Taliban. This event was sponsored by the Asia Policy Project, a joint program of the Clements Center and the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and is introduced by Professor Sheena Greitens of the LBJ School at the University of Texas, Austin.

As the threat of Russian invasion looms over Ukraine, this week's epsiode of Horns of a Dilemma helps to clarify the origins of the post-Cold War security structure in Europe and the role of NATO expansion and enlargement in defining both Western and Russian threat perception.  Clements Center Executive Director Will Inboden sits down with Professor Mary Sarrotte to discuss her book, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate. Key among the many issues they discuss is the competing visions between Russian and American and European leaders regarding the status of Ukraine.  This event was held in November at the University of Texas, Austin and sponsored by the Clements Center.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we continue with a panel discussion that follows author Wesley Morgan's discussion of his book, The Hardest Place. If you haven't listened to last week's episode, which includes Morgan's book talk, you may want to do so, since this week's episode includes discussion of events that are covered in Morgan's talk. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and sponsored by the Clements Center and the McCombs School of Business.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, the first of two parts, author Wesley Morgan discusses his book, The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan's Pech Valley. Morgan has written an extraordinary biography of the American presence in Afghanistan, focusing on one particular place, and through the history of the American war in that place, capturing the 20-year American war effort in it heroism, nobility, hubris, and folly.  Morgan spoke at the University of Texas, Austin, in an event jointly sponsored by the Clements Center and the McCombs School of Business. He is introduced by Paul Edgar, Associate Director of the Clements Center.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from retired U.S. Army Colonel Dr. Christopher Kolenda about his new book, Zero Sum Victory: What We Get Wrong About War.  Kolenda draws on his experience in Iraq and Afghanistan to help explain why it feels as if the United States has had what he calls "the inverse Midas touch" when it comes to interventions: everything we've tried has bogged down into quagmire or defeat.  Kolenda's argues that U.S. leaders aren't adept at identifying measures of success other than total victory, that they are slow to learn and adapt, and that when the decision is made to withdraw, they often mishandled that process, as well.  This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin.  

This week's Horns of a Dilemma may be a first in that it deals with a work of fiction.  Author David McCloskey joins Stephen Slick of the Intelligence Studies Project at the University of Texas, Austin, to discuss his new novel, Damascus Station. In the novel, McCloskey draws on his years as a CIA analyst to lend realism to both the civil war in Syria (the setting for the novel) and to the culture and activities of the CIA. The book talk is followed by a discussion between McCloskey and Slick about McCloskey's perspective on intelligence and the CIA in particular. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

Joseph Stalin said at the 1943 Tehran Conference that World War II would be won with "British brains, American steel, and Soviet blood." Indeed, the scale of Soviet losses in the war is nearly unimaginable: Some estimates place the number of military and civilian deaths at over 20 million.  But the scale of Russian losses, and the bitter hatred and brutality that characterized combat on the Eastern front, tends to obscure that Germany and the Soviet Union had cooperated militarily for nearly two decades before the Nazi invasion in 1941. Ian Johnson, of Notre Dame University and a former Clements Center fellow, discusses this cooperation in this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, as detailed in his book, Faustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War. Johnson lays out the ways in which these two rogue states helped each other to develop the militaries that ultimately engaged in some of the most desperate and deadly combat of World War II.  This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin.

In last week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we heard from Professor Jane Vaynman how emerging technologies may influence the future of arms control. In this week's episode, we hear from Tim Morrison, currently of the Hudson Institute and formerly a deputy advisor to the president for national security in the Trump administration, how arms control is influenced by different positions staked out by the major U.S. political parties. Morrison focuses particularly on negotiations surrounding the extension of the new START treaty between the United States and Russia, and also discusses the role of China, a growing nuclear power with whom the United States does not have any bilateral nuclear arms control agreements. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and was hosted by the Clements Center.   Note: Mr. Morrison is employed by Boeing, which competes for U.S. missile defense contracts. In this talk, he was speaking in his capacity as a Hudson Institute fellow, and not as a Boeing employee.  

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Professor Jane Vaynman, author of "Better Monitoring and Better Spying: The Impact of Emerging Technology on Arms Control," which appears in Vol. 4/Iss. 4 of the Texas National Security Review, a special issue dedicated to the memory and legacy of Janne Nolan. Vaynman explores how advances in the technology of drones, small satellites, artificial intelligence, and additive manufacturing may impact the future of arms control agreements and verification.  This article was the winner of the Janne Nolan prize competition, sponsored by the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies as part of the Future Strategy Forum. 

The People's Republic of China has risen over the past two decades to become the world's largest economy, when measured by purchasing power parity. As Chinese global economic interests and influence have expanded so, too, has the size and capability of the Chinese military. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Thomas Shugart, adjunct senior fellow with the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, discusses the implications of growing Chinese military power. Shugart frames his discussion in terms of what he calls the "Malacca Dilemma": Since much of Chinese trade and almost all Chinese energy imports must flow through strategic chokepoints controlled by the U.S. Navy or its allies and partners, Chinese leaders want to be able to protect their interests in these vital regions. But the same capabilities that allow them to protect their trading interests also allow them to threaten, intimidate, and coerce other regional countries, and may give Chinese communist leaders the tools needed to challenge or change the global order that has defined the region for decades.  This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin, and jointly sponsored by the Strauss Center and the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin.

While most people think of North Korea today as an isolated pariah state, the "hermit kingdom" exercised significant influence among Third World nations during the Cold War. North Korean leader Kim Il Sung sent advisors to assist African liberation movements, trained anti-imperialist guerrilla fighters, and completed building projects in developing countries. State-run media coverage of events in the Third World shaped the worldview of many North Koreans and helped them imagine a unified global anti-imperialist front with North Korea at the vanguard. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Benjamin Young of Virginia Commonwealth University discusses these developments, as detailed in his book, Guns, Guerrillas, and the Great Leader: North Korea and the Third World. This talk was sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and was hosted by Professor Sheena Greitens of the LBJ School at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Elbridge Colby, co-founder of the Marathon Initiative, former deputy assistant secretary of defense, and author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Competition. Colby makes the case for a U.S. defense strategy focused on preventing Chinese hegemony in Asia by denying the Chinese the ability to achieve faits d'accompli--completed acts that violate the security and sovereignty of American's allies and partners in Asia, thereby threatening the defensive perimeter critical to protecting American interests.  Colby's was the principal author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, and his work continues to influence the formulation of strategy today. This event was hosted at the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and is introduced by Professor Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center.

With the release of the Pandora Papers, news reports are filled with stories derived from computer files once thought to be hidden from public scrutiny.  While  the source of the Pandora Papers leak isn't yet known, the pattern of leaked computer files shaping international relations has become increasingly common as information migrates to "the cloud." In addition to the Pandora Papers, the release of the Panama Papers revealed banking secrets of many international leaders, frequently suggesting involvement in activities they would have preferred not be made public.  James Shires discussed the political role of "hack and leak" operations, many of which involve cloud-based data, in his article in Vol. 3/Iss. 4 of Texas National Security Review (our special issue on cyber competition). In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Christina Morillo, a cyber security expert with substantial experience in the private sector, discusses the nuts and bolts of cloud security. While the discussion is a bit more technically detailed than many episodes of the podcast, listeners will find that having a better understanding of how cloud security works will help them better to understand the context in which events like the release of the Pandora Papers, hack and leak operations, and even cloud-based attacks on computer control and data acquisition systems all take place. This talk was sponsored by the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and hosted by Wendy Nather, a senior cyber security fellow at the Strauss Center.

In the wake of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, much attention has focused on the fate of Afghan citizens who risked their lives to aid U.S. forces. The hastily organized evacuation of Afghan refugees has frequently drawn unfavorable comparison to the evacuation and resettlement of Vietnamese refugees after the fall of Saigon in 1975. As the guest in this week's podcast demonstrates, however, the story of how the United States came to accept Vietnamese refugees is far more nuanced than many comparisons suggest. Professor Amanda Demmer is the author of After Saigon’s Fall: Refugees and U.S.-Vietnamese Relations, 1975-2000, published this year by Cambridge University Press. In the book, and in her talk, Demmer describes how the process of accepting refugees following the war in Vietnam both shaped and was shaped by significant movements in domestic and international politics, including a re-assertion of Congressional power in foreign relations, changing domestic and international norms regarding refugees, and an interlocking of humanitarian and human rights narratives. Ultimately, Demmer argues, understanding the story of refugees is central to understanding the normalization of relations between the United States and Vietnam.  This talk was sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and was hosted by Mark Lawrence, an associate professor of history at the University of Texas, Austin, and director of the LBJ Presidential Library and Museum.

Grand strategy can be a vexing term. While many people understand grand strategy to be an important expression of the way in which countries wield their power, there can often be confusion as to exactly what the term "grand strategy" encompasses. (For listeners eager to explore more on this, Vol. 2, Iss. 1 of Texas National Security Review contains three excellent scholarly articles on grand strategy.) In this episode of Horns of Dilemma, we hear from a collection of authors and editors who are part of a recent book project arguing for a more capacious understanding of grand strategy.  Rethinking American Grand Strategy, published by Oxford University Press this past spring, contains a collection of essays looking at different frameworks, narratives, figures, and approaches to grand strategy. Two of the editors of the volume — Chris Nichols and Andrew Preston — are joined by three authors — Adriane Lentz-Smith, Charlie Edel, and Will Inboden — to discuss the book and their contributions to it. This event was sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and hosted by Professor Jeremy Suri of the University of Texas, Austin.

The 2016 presidential election was a milestone in modern American politics, not only for the surprising victory of a candidate whom many pundits and observers had considered unlikely to win, but also for the degree to which foreign powers attempted to influence the electoral process and outcome. In this week’s Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Emily Harding, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and formerly the deputy staff director for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Harding details the committee’s broad-reaching bipartisan investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. She discusses interactions with the concurrent FBI investigation, as well as the ways in which the outcomes of the Senate investigation helped to make the 2018 midterm elections and 2020 presidential election more secure against the types of interference that occurred in 2016. This talk was jointly sponsored by the Clements Center for National Security and the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas, Austin. The talk was delivered outdoors due to COVID mitigation policies, so listeners will notice some wind noise, which we have done our best to minimize in post-production. 

In the 1950s, researchers at the RAND Corporation ran two different wargames exploring questions of nuclear strategy. Both were named the Cold War Game, known to the participants as COW.  One, run by the Mathematics Analysis Division (MAD), abstracted questions of the ethics of nuclear war in order to seek reproducible results. The other, run by the Social Sciences Division (SSD), reflected concerns over the ethics and implications of nuclear weapons, resulting in less-certain outcomes. The history of these games sheds light not only on nuclear strategy, but also on the balance between logic and emotion in national security decision-making. Doyle Hodges, executive editor of the Texas National Security Review (TNSR), talks with John R. Emery, the author of Moral Choices Without Moral Language: 1950s Political-Military Wargaming at the RAND Corporation, which appears in Vol 4/Iss 4 of TNSR.  This issue is a special issue dedicated to the legacy of Janne Nolan, a founding member of the TNSR editorial board who passed away in 2019. 

With the fall of President Ashraf Ghani's government and the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces, most of Afghanistan is now under the control of the Taliban. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we are joined by Dr. Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and the director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors at Brookings, and by Scott R. Anderson, a visiting fellow in governance studies at Brookings, a senior editor and counsel for Lawfare, and a senior fellow with the National Security Law Program at Columbia Law School. Felbab-Brown and Anderson discuss the outlook for the Taliban as they seek to shift from insurgency to governance.  The discussion covers questions of formal legal recognition, as well as questions of legitimacy and capacity for governance. Our guests explain why exercising power as the government of Afghanistan is likely to be more challenging for the Taliban than defeating the previous government was. As Dr. Felbab-Brown observed, "it's much easier to be an insurgent than a governor."

Being an editor involves saying “no,” quite a bit. 85 percent of submissions to both the Texas National Security Review and War on the Rocks never make it to publication.  At the recent Clements Center Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft in Beaver Creek, Colorado, Doyle Hodges, executive editor of TNSR and chief publishing officer of War on the Rocks, and Megan Oprea, managing editor of TNSR, spoke to the assembled students about how to be in the 15 percent that do wind up in our pages. The question of how to write clearly and persuasively for policy audiences is asked frequently by students and practitioners alike. Doyle and Megan decided to reprise their talk for this episode of Horns of a Dilemma. 

Mark Twain once said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. The repetition of patterns of events and responses is one reason that scholars and policymakers often turn to the past for insight into how to best deal with contemporary events. It is also why classic works of history and strategy — such as Thucydides’ The History of the Peloponnesian War — have become classic and remain relevant. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Dr. Paul Edgar, associate director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, goes 1,000 years before Thucydides to find enduring lessons as told in an inscription on a statue from the 15th century BCE.  While the names of the rulers and powers may not be familiar, Edgar illustrates how the themes of strategy, alliance, and statecraft in great-power competition are familiar and relevant to power struggles today. This talk was recorded at the Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft, sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and held in Beaver Creek, Colorado.

The history of nuclear weapons is, thankfully, largely a history of things that haven’t happened.  Since 1945, nuclear weapons have dominated strategy and statecraft, but they have not been used after the first two bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  Professor Frank Gavin of Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and Chair of the Texas National Security Review editorial board, discusses the history and politics of nuclear strategy and statecraft.  His talk is both wide-ranging and specific. Gavin examines the big issues related to nuclear weapons, and the paradoxes of strategy that possession of nuclear weapons creates — such as the fact that the only way to ensure that these terrible weapons are never used is to appear to be credibly poised to use them.  This talk was presented as part of the Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and held at Beaver Creek, Colorado.

Two weeks ago on Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Jim Goldgeier of American University and the Brookings Institution joined Ambassador Alexandra Hall Hall to discuss the thematic connections between the choice in the early 1990s to add new members to the NATO alliance and Britain’s choice in 2016 to leave the European Union.  In last week’s episode, Professor Goldgeier expanded on the history, politics, and consequences of NATO expansion and enlargement. This week, completing the cycle, Ambassador Hall Hall discusses Brexit. Ambassador Hall Hall speaks from personal experience as the senior British diplomat for Brexit issues in the United States, a position from which she ultimately resigned, leaving the British diplomatic corps out of principled disagreement with the way in which the Brexit narrative was being played out.  This event was recorded at the Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and held in Beaver Creek, Colorado.    

In last week’s episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we heard Professor Jim Goldgeier of American University and the Brookings Institution and former British Ambassador Alexandra Hall Hall discuss the thematic connections between the addition of new NATO members after the breakup of the Soviet Union and the dynamics that ultimately led to Brexit.  In this episode, Professor Goldgeier goes into more depth on the promises that were or weren’t made to Soviet and Russian leaders by NATO and Western leaders in the turbulent period between 1991 and 1993.  As Goldgeier explains, even the language used to describe these events — whether “enlargement” or “expansion” — carries shades of meaning that continue to resonate today.  This event was recorded live at the Clements Center Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft in Beaver Creek, Colorado, and sponsored by the Clements Center of the University of Texas, Austin.

The admission of new NATO members from the former Soviet Union and Warsaw pact marked an expansion of European multilateral institutions.  The growth in membership of European institutions continued until 25 years later, when Britain decided to withdraw from the European Union.  In a session recorded at the Clements Center Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft in Beaver Creek, Colorado, Professor Jim Goldgeier and Ambassador Alexandra Hall Hall examine what common themes connect these two events, exploring question of identity, trust in institutions, and the use (or misuse) of history.

American security policy has made use of tripwire forces for many years.  One of the most prominent examples cited is the case of Berlin: As Thomas Schelling famously described the logic, the small garrison of US soldiers stationed there during the Cold War weren’t militarily capable of defeating the far-larger East German or Soviet forces nearby but, the East Germans or Soviets would be deterred from attacking because any attack would result in the deaths of that small US force, drawing America into a conflict. Our guests today, Professor Dan Reiter of Emery University and Professor Paul Poast of the University of Chicago, argue that Schelling was wrong. Their article, “The Truth About Tripwires: Why Small Force Deployments Do Not Deter Aggression,” in Vol 4, Iss 3 of TNSR, argues that deterrence relies almost exclusively on the military value of force deployment, so small token deployments are unlikely to deter a determined attacker.  They illustrate their argument with two cases from the Korean peninsula, and a counterfactual example from World War I.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Dr. Catherine Lotrionte, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discusses state-sponsored cyber economic espionage, that is the use of state resources in order to obtain private intellectual property, not for the benefit of the state, but for the benefit of industries and companies.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Randall G. Schriver, the former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs and now serving as the chairman of the Project 2049 Institute, offers an overview of U.S. security relations throughout Asia. He speaks of the policy continuity between the Trump and Biden administrations. He also discusses issues such as human rights and democracy promotion, the role of India and the Quad, and supply chain security.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Nicole Perlroth, author of This is How the Word Ends: The Cyber Weapons Arms Race, sits down with Bobby Chesney, director of the Strauss Center, to discuss the increasing complexity and sophistication of attacks on U.S infrastructure and the challenges presented in defending against cyber attacks.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Ambassador Philip T. Reeker, the acting assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, provides an overview of European security issues. Ambassador Reeker’s talk focuses on Russia, NATO, Eastern Europe, as well as other critical European security issues.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Thomas Ricks, journalist and historian, talks about his new book, “First Principles, What America’s Founders Learned from the Greeks and Romans and How that Shaped Our Country.” Ricks outlines the degree to which the founding fathers were influenced by the ancients and how this influence helped to shape the structure and the principles of the emerging republic.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Martha Bárcena, former Mexican ambassador to the United States, and Kimberly Breier, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discuss U.S.-Mexican relations. The talk covers topics such as immigration and trade, but also highlights the degree to which the U.S. and Mexico are each indispensable to each other.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Henry Hale, professor of political science and international relations at George Washington University, gives a talk about the evolution of power structures in post-Soviet Eurasia. Hale focuses on the concept of “patronalism,” the idea that political power is distributed and wielded by networks that are connected by personal acquaintances and lead by a single powerful patron.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center, and Jim Golby, senior fellow at the Clements Center, sit down with Amb. Kay Bailey Hutchison, a former U.S. senator and most recently U.S. ambassador to NATO. They discuss NATO’s future, the challenges that confront NATO now, as well as the development of a new strategic concept, likely to be developed and unveiled as part of the upcoming NATO summit in June.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Tess Owen, senior reporter at VICE News covering extremism, hate crimes, and gun control, sits down with Brianna Kablack, a Master of Global Policy Studies candidate at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, to discuss domestic extremism. Their talk examines the evolution and developments that Owen has seen in the course of reporting on domestic extremism. These findings include the evolution of what she refers to as “suit and tie extremists,” as well as the mainstreaming of increasingly extremist views.   This talk was sponsored by the Strauss Center and was part of the Brumley Speaker Series.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Josh Rogin, journalist for the Washington Post and CNN, joins the podcast to discuss his new book, Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century. Rogin details the response of the Trump administration to China, and describes the groups that had influence within the White House in helping to shape policy.   This talk took place at the University of Texas at Austin and was sponsored by the Clements Center and the Strauss Center.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Sean McFate, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and professor of strategy at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, discusses his book The New Rules of War: How America Can Win Against Russia, China, and Other Threats. McFate argues that the lack of strategic success achieved by the U.S. military over the last 30 to 40 years stems not from a lack of investment nor a lack of technology, but from the fact that the United States suffers from what he terms “victors curse.”   This talk took place at the University of Texas at Austin and was sponsored by the Clements Center.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma we listen to a talk from Eli Lake, a national security journalism fellow at the Clements Center and a syndicated columnist on foreign affairs for Bloomberg. Lake shares his thoughts on what he describes as the “new non-interventionism,” comprised of those thinkers, scholars, and policy makers who oppose continued U.S. presence around the world in pursuit of a war on terror. 

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Doyle Hodges, executive editor of the Texas National Security Review, sits down with Hilary Matfess (a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University and a Peace Scholar Fellow at the United States Institute for Peace), and Robert Nagel (a postdoctoral research fellow at the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace, and Security), to discuss gender in conflict and the issues surrounding women in the field of security.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Frank Gavin, chair of the editorial board of the Texas National Security Review, sits down with Philip Zelikow to discuss his new book, The Road Less Traveled: The Secret Battle to End the Great War, 1916 - 1917. Gavin and Zelikow explore the story of the peace talks and what might have happened had they succeeded. Moreover, Zelikow explores why this story has never been told. It is an interesting look into how history is shaped and how we understand the past.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Paul Edgar, associate director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas at Austin, sits down with Gen. (ret.) David Petraeus, currently serving as the director of the KKR Global Institute. During the conversation, Petraeus discusses China and other challenges facing U.S. national security after the Trump administration.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Prof. Sarah Paine of the U.S. Naval War College examines a variety of explanations for why the Cold War ended, when it did, and how it did. Paine does not arrive at a single answer but paints a much richer portrait of the fascinating events that led to a substantial shift in world order.

In this episode of Horns, Nina Jankowicz, , discusses her book, How to Lose the Information War: Russia, Fake News, and the Future of Conflict. Jankowicz’s book covers Russian disinformation efforts in Estonia, Georgia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Ukraine, and the United States. She argues that disinformation shouldn’t be viewed strictly from a technical perspective, since successful disinformation takes advantage of preexisting fissures and issues within society and exacerbates divisions and emotions surrounding them. An effective response to disinformation should have a strong human component, and it is impossible to mount an effect campaign against foreign disinformation when some portions of society engage in those same tactics.

The military is one of the most trusted institutions in American society. But the question of how the military views itself is different than that and one that has significant implications. Recently, the Texas National Security Review published an article titled, “From Citizen Soldier to Secular Saint: The Societal Implications of Military Exceptionalism,” that looks at the implications of military exceptionalism. The authors, Heidi Urben, Susan Bryant, and Brett Swaney sit down with Doyle Hodges, executive editor of the Texas National Security Review, to discuss their findings of servicemembers’ perception of themselves.

On March 5, 1946, Winston Churchill delivered a speech at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri. This speech, known as “The Sinews of Peace” speech, became famous for the phrase that Churchill coined about the fall of the “Iron Curtain” across Europe.   To mark its 75th anniversary, the Clements Center assembled a panel to discuss the speech itself, the context in which it was given, and its enduring impact. The conversation is hosted by Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center, and features David Reynolds, professor of international history at Cambridge University, Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and Tim Riley, director of the National Churchill Museum.   You can listen to the speech at the National Churchill Museum.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Paul Edgar, associate director of the Clements Center, sits down with Ray Takeyh to discuss his book, The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty. Takeyh argues that, contrary to popular belief, the 1953 coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq was not the most pivotal event in shaping Iran’s destiny. He argues that Mossadeq’s expulsion was the result, at least in large part, of disapproval of fellow Iranian elites rather than a strictly successful CIA coup. Instead, Takeyh states that understanding the rise of the revolution and the downfall of the Shah should focus more on the period in the early 1960s when Pahlavi became increasingly autocratic and separated from his advisers.