Real Estate remains highly localized, a feature which contributes to its noncorrelated and rate-sensitive nature, says Barings Head of US & European Real Estate John Ockerbloom. He joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s fixed income strategist, to discuss opportunities and risks facing real estate markets across the globe in this episode of BI’s FICC Focus podcast. Ockerbloom identifies opportunities in data centers, self-storage, health care and multiuse real estate. They also talk about what comes next for out-of-favor sectors such as office and retail.

With plenty of private equity dry powder and a growing supply-demand imbalance, direct lending is well positioned to grow, according to Antares Capital Director of Asset Management, Vivek Mathew. Vivek joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on another special edition of Credit Crunch, recorded at the Greenwich Economic Forum. They discuss the benefits of being under the wing of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, the refinancing cycle, Antares’ co-investment approach, secondary-market viability and more.

The record growth in municipal bond ETFs, and more specifically actively managed muni ETFs, has led to more innovative alternative strategies. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management. They discuss Simplify’s ETF strategies and how option selling can improve a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.

It does look like the Fed is nailing this soft landing, so we’re feeling quite positive around where we’re going, says James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at Abrdn. McCann joins host and senior US and Canada rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to unpack rapidly shifting economic narratives. The pair discuss changes in the the medium-term economic outlook, as well as recent developments regarding the state of labor markets and inflation. They also dive into the implications of strikes and hurricanes on near-term economic data, in addition to the balance of risks surrounding the upcoming US election cycle.

Polen Capital, with deep roots in the world of growth equity investing, has expanded into the opportunistic high yield bond market, leveraging its acquisition of DDJ Capital in 2021. Polen CEO, Stan Moss, and Head of Credit, Dave Breazzano, join Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this special edition of Credit Crunch, live from the Greenwich Economic Forum. The conversation dives into the firm’s focus on growth, the benefits of a flexible high yield investment approach, leadership through uncertain times, the credit cycle and more.

High yield credit had a strong year (to date), as yields rallied and spreads followed, while defaults didn't blow up as feared. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 2.7% and the US at 1.2% but the share of stressed and distressed bonds has come down. Will 4Q sustain those gains, and why? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 4Q High Yield Survey, along with market outlook, with Peter Khan, Global High Yield Portfolio Manger at Fidelity Investments. They discuss the BI 4Q investor survey report, which covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector. They discuss deeply how high yield prospects differ between Europe and the US.

Globalization has slowed, yet access to local markets is improving, and the EM asset class remains underrepresented in most global portfolios. In this episode of the EM Lens podcast, Rich Nuzum, executive director and global chief investment strategist at Mercer, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed-income strategist, to discuss the Mercer’s affinity for emerging market assets and their role within large institutional portfolios. Globalization has slowed, yet access to local markets is improving, and the EM asset class remains under-represented in most global portfolios. Nuzum and Sassower touch on supply chain diversification, demographics, total return expectations and terms of trade.

Despite the recent spike in volatility, investor sentiment is broadly positive, yet tail risks are emanating as we push into year-end. Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman & CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, joins BI Chief Emerging Market Fixed Income StrategistDamian Sassower, to discuss policy stimulus, growth potential and inflationary price pressures across the globe. Roubini and Sassower touch on issues ranging from diminished US exceptionalism and extreme China pessimism to elevated Mideast tension and the accompanying passthrough to commodities.

This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2024 held in NYC on October 1st. It starts with the opening speech by BI’s chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu on macro and volatility across markets, followed by the discussion from the first panel on the options market by Pierre De Saab, partner at Dominice, Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management, and Deniz Cicek, Portfolio Manager at Axonic Capital. The panel is hosted by Noel Hebert, Direction of FICC Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Private credit markets have seen tremendous growth over the past decade, establishing themselves as viable sources of funding for companies across the rating spectrum. That growth may not slow down anytime soon, according to Amanda Lynam, head of Macro Credit Research at BlackRock. Lynam joins Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on this episode of Credit Crunch to walk through trends in the corporate-credit space. The discussion hits on how corporate credit spreads could tighten, the ebbs and flows of financing mix, the default cycle, regional relative value and much more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.

“LMEs buy time for the sponsor, but I’m increasingly seeing that that’s all it really does.” Jon Weber, founder of JFW & Co., doesn’t mince words regarding the effectiveness of the popular restructuring strategy. Liability management exercises leave executives with a “sword of Damocles” over their heads, failing to really fix anything and with an aftermath that remains a management distraction, Weber told Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel, in October’s feature interview for the State of Distressed Debt podcast. Weber shared his perspectives, honed at Icahn Enterprises, Goldman Sachs and Elliott Management, on running effective boards and companies post-reorganization (6:30). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discussed the complete dearth of distressed-debt inventory, as the distressed ratio plummeted to a 5.2% 28-month low in September. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion covering J&J’s latest Talc news, Hertz make-whole appeal, Audacy, Yellow, Tupperware, Telesat and what qualifies as a consensual release these days (59:00). This podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

In the beige book, you see all 12 districts reporting declining spending in some way shape or form, and that’s unheard of: There is no such thing, and I think that is what got the attention of the Federal Reserve, says Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for QI Research. In this edition of the Macro Matters podcast, Booth joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief North American rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss changes to the microstructure of the US Treasury market, as well as some of the largest systemic risks to financial markets. The duo also touch on potential Fed reforms and changes to bank-capital rules affecting market-making activity and liquidity in US Treasury markets.

China's recent monetary and fiscal stimulus announcements may bring near-term cyclical relief and add to the bullish case for yuan-proxy currencies like the Australian dollar and may help to contain euro downside amid underwhelming domestic news flow. Yet a longer-term, structural boost is debatable. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Dr Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman's global head of market strategy, about how the recent measures from China could shape the dollar outlook later this year and into 2025. Win and Audrey also touch on how China could affect the euro as Europe's economic news flow disappoints, plus the US economic outlook and how the US presidential election might drive the dollar view.

The corporate credit landscape could face uncertain times ahead, with upcoming elections, policy shifts and global conflicts. Andrew Beckman, Head of Global Credit at FS Investments, joins Credit Crunch’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to discuss the firm’s approach to investing across public and private markets. The conversation delves into current risk-reward levels, the credit-quality sweet spot, leveraging the broader FS infrastructure, creditor-on-creditor violence and more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.

Investing, stocks, commodities, crypto and everything in between. This biweekly podcast with a focus on exchange-traded funds will guide you through the financial markets in Asia and beyond. Sponsored by HKEX.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Chief UK Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They discuss the BOE, economic outlook and market volatility.

Andrew Jackson, head of fixed income at Vontobel Asset Management, joins BI chief emerging market fixed income strategist Damian Sassower, to discuss portfolio positioning and market expectations after the US Federal Reserve’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut. Despite the rise in volatility, investor sentiment toward emerging-market debt remains positive, yet tail risk remains elevated as 4Q approaches. Jackson and Sassower touch on issues ranging from new issuance and secondary-market liquidity to credit quality and default protection.

SVP operates as “one big virtual global office” built on three functional “pillars” — sourcing, dealmaking and its operating partners — according to HJ Woltery, the firm’s co-head of the European investment team. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel had an in-depth feature interview with Woltery on European distressed debt. They delved into SVP’s investment approach and how the restructuring landscape varies from the US and among European countries (7:15). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel discussed August’s telecom-led credit rally and what the start of rate cuts means for the corporate credit cycle. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining the two for a roundtable discussion covering Avon, Hertz’s make-whole decision, Gol airlines, TPG, Diamond Sports, Mallinckrodt, Yellow Corp. and the proliferation of cooperation agreements (1:02:25).

The new supercore CPI to watch is the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, given US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on monthly non-farm payroll gains, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Wong is joined by Macro Matters podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss key details and takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s 50-bp rate cut and accompanying policy announcement. The pair unpack the implications of changes in the Fed’s summary of economic projections as well as the outlook for the economy relative to current market pricing. They also discuss potential implications for monetary policy in the context of the upcoming presidential election.

With artificial intelligence tools, we think we can cover more, in more depth and with the same number of people, and we can be faster to market, says David Dwyer, director of global research at Bloomberg Intelligence. In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast, Dwyer joins host and BI chief North American rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the future of financial research within the context of rapid technological advancements. With BI celebrating its 15-year anniversary, the pair discuss the history of tech adoption and productivity gains within the financial-research sector, as well as how machine learning and AI tools will drive evolution in analysts’ workflows.

The performance of the broad muni index has been positive this year, while also notably falling short of the stronger showing by its fixed-income counterparts. However, the real winners can be found in the lower-rated muni credit rungs, with the Bloomberg Muni High Yield index leading the way. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by John Loffredo, vice chairman of MacKay Shields, to discuss the changing landscape of munis and how risk-managed relative-value approaches can help uncover opportunities.

Credit markets have had a strong year, a few blips notwithstanding. After the ECB cut rates twice, the BOE once and with the Fed about to embark on a long cutting cycle, are credit spreads too tight and priced for perfection? Is the rally in yields justified on expected rate cuts until 1H25? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Jamie Irvine, investment director at abdrn, discuss the state of credit across the US, UK, and Europe. They tackle relative value across credit in different currencies; junk and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; and fundamental views. They also address the sterling credit market, and the impact of elections across the US, UK and Europe.

 The dollar's status as the ultimate global reserve currency is intact and the currency is still leading on the International Monetary System's key parameters. Yet geopolitics and China's efforts to push for internationalization of the yuan are keeping FX regionalization and de-dollarization topical. Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, and BI chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu discuss how the looming US presidential election might affect de-dollarization. Stephen and Audrey also touch on some key themes covered in their latest FX Deep Dive: ''De-Dollarization, FX Regionalization and the Yuan's Expansion'', including the role of gold as a factor in the de-dollarization debate. The deep dive can be found at BI CURR on the terminal.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu covers the VIX at 65 being due to market technicals and unreflective of fundamentals, as well as the support for rates volatility from uncertainty around the pace and extent that policy rates decline rather than the direction of travel, which is clear cut.

Emerging Market corporate and quasi-sovereign debt is outperforming the broader EM sovereign-credit complex, as the asset class returns to favor following years of below-average bond issuance. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Emerging Market Portfolio Manager at Schroders Autumn Graham joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower, chief EM credit strategist, to discuss the risk-return tradeoff in EM corporate credit. Graham and Sassower touch on issuer fundamentals, market depth, foreign positioning, geopolitical risk and the impact of deglobalization. This podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Macro credit trends tend to be based on more of a feel than precise numbers. In this latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist and Heema Patel, Senior Credit Strategy Associate at Bloomberg Intelligence, delve into proprietary research and data on BI STRTE to make macro credit very precise. Explore their novel spread-prediction model with market and macroeconomic drivers, insights on index metrics -- default rates, rating quality/drift and credit ratios. They also discuss if green bonds are trading at a premium or discount, a methodology contrasting with the conventional greenium calculations. Lastly, they address the main derivative play in credit, the cash-CDS basis and gain perspective on current market patterns and uncover alpha-generating opportunities.

The Canadian economy is rife with potholes that could potentially be hit by a policy mistake, says Stuart Paul, US and Canadian economist for Bloomberg Economics. Paul joins Macro Matters podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief North American rate strategist Ira Jersey and senior associate rates strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the state of the country’s economy and rate markets. They talk about the key drivers, outlooks and possible risks across the short and medium term, as well as key differences in US and Canadian central-bank mandates and potential policy paths. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. 

As we edge closer to a US Federal Reserve rate decision and a presidential election, municipal credit will get more attention. In this Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano talk to Jennifer Johnston, director of research, municipal bonds, at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. She discusses how technology enhances credit research and why tax policy, slowing tax collections, falling revenues and pressured hospital margins are among areas of concern in 2H and beyond.

SLR Capital Partners has built expertise in corporate lending, asset-based financing, life-science credits and other segments over nearly two decades. The firm’s cofounders Michael Gross and Bruce Spohler join Bloomberg Intelligence credit analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to talk about how the firm thinks about underwriting risk across borrowers and the types of investment vehicles they’ve built out. The conversation hits on their principal investment approach, how they deal with problematic loans, the current regulatory environment and more.

Don’t expect “gentlemanly” behavior from corporate boards under financial stress, says Hilco Global’s Vice Chairman James H. M. Sprayregen, as they should consider exercising all the rights available to them under credit agreements to maximize enterprise value. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku speak with Sprayregen, who founded Kirkland & Ellis’s restructuring practice more than three decades ago, in this episode of BI’s State of Distressed Debt podcast. They talk about those early days at K&E, his new role at Hilco Global, the jousting among lenders and debtors, the Supreme Court’s Purdue decision and his restructuring outlook (5:38). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discuss July’s sharply-tighter credit markets and what to make of early August’s wild swings as we head into credit’s toughest months. The podcast concludes with all three examining the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including SVB Financial, J&J, Ardagh, Incora, Diamond Sports, Yellow Corp. and Spirit Airlines (1:05:15).

The great dollar-yen unwind is under way, with the combined shift to much more dovish Fed-easing prospects and more hawkish BOJ expectations the perfect trigger to the unwind of the yen carry trade. Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to BI's Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu about what is still a negative dollar-yen narrative, while acknowledging that the pace of the recent moves have been extreme and aren't likely to be sustained. Stephen and Audrey also look at the implications of recent yen moves for yuan dynamics and revisit their BEER model, highlighting its useful reference at a time of extreme FX moves.

The unemployment rate will surprise the Fed, rising to 4.5% at the end of this year, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Wong joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to unpack the July FOMC meeting. The pair discuss Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish tilt at the meeting’s Q&A, and what that means for likely rate-policy outcomes. They also the examine potential implications of possible fiscal-policy changes to inflation, trade policy and real-economic activity.

With US presidential election campaigns in full swing, we thought it prudent to revisit what this year could mean for the municipal bond market in terms of heightened risks -- and even some scenarios where it would benefit. Though past election years have returned more wins than losses for munis, macroeconomic issues accompanying the election will remain a hurdle. To discuss possible threats and the latest federal income-tax developments, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Andrew Silverman and Nathan Dean from Bloomberg Intelligence.

Increased electronification and the growing prevalence of portfolio trading are creating opportunities for systematic credit, which seeks to harness the explosion of data to create models and strategies, says Paul Benson, head of systematic fixed income at Insight Investment. Benson joins BI credit strategists Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to discuss the history of the systematic approach, model dependency, excess liquidity premiums and identifying relative value. That and more in this latest episode of Credit Crunch. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Steven Major, HSBC’s global head of fixed-income research, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and BI senior rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss some of the most controversial topics across global bond markets in this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast. The trio dive into the determinants of longer-run equilibrium interest rates and the relationship between supply and yields. They also touch on regulatory constraints on dealer-intermediation capabilities and relative value across global bond markets.

The economy is firing on all cylinders and continues to show positive momentum, says Lara Rhame, chief US economist at FS Investments. Rhame joins Macro Matters co-host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss the major drivers of the US Treasury market. The trio examine how the Federal Reserve may respond to current and future economic conditions, and the impact of various outcomes across asset classes and the Treasury curve. They also discuss the likely path of fiscal policy and the potential implications of sustained deficit spending on longer-maturity Treasury performance.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matt King, Founder of Satori Insights. They discuss the impact of central bank reserves on cross-asset markets.

Shorecliff Asset Management’s Grant Nachman talks about the intellectually-enriching challenges of launching a new firm in this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Credit Crunch podcast. Grant joins BI’s chief US credit strategist Noel Hebert and his colleague Sam Geier to discuss Shorecliff’s full-cycle credit-investing strategy, the benefits of having a lean team, a bottom-up due-diligence process, the ideal size for the strategy and more.

Murat Ulgen, Global Head of EM Research at HSBC, and BI’s Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower discuss how US yields and the dollar have driven emerging-market risk premiums and how resilient the asset class has been to rates repricing throughout 1H. They note dispersion within the broader market, the role of carry and the drivers behind the sentiment change in specific geographies - notably a curtailed bullishness for Latin America, and a shift toward Central and Eastern Europe and Africa. Their conversation spans Turkey, South Africa, China (and its EM role) as well as frontier and distressed markets.

High yield corporate credit had a strong 1H, despite rates volatility, as spreads rallied and defaults stayed low. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 0.85% and the share of stressed and distressed bonds has come down, while it's higher in the US. Will 3Q sustain those gains, and why? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 3Q High Yield Survey, along with market outlook, with Peter Aspbury, Head of European High Yield and PM at JP Morgan Asset Management. They discuss the BI 3Q investor survey report, which covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector. They also discuss how high grade and leveraged loan prospects compare with junk.

US congressional partisanship is at it’s highest level ever and there’s no fiscal restraint on either side of the aisle, says Macro Matters host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rate strategist Ira Jersey. He joined BI’s chief European rate strategist Huw Worthington to discuss the implications of global elections across sovereign debt markets. The pair talk about recent volatility spurred by French and UK elections and their impact on relative value across markets. They also dissect the outcomes of the November US Presidential election and the implications of shifting trade and geopolitical stances on the economy. Macro Matters is part of the BI FICC Focus pod cast series.

French and UK politics generated most headlines in recent weeks -- and France's political conundrum has yet to be solved -- but US politics are likely to take center stage and dictate the dollar's fortunes in the run-up to the Nov. 5 elections. Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to BI's senior government analyst Nathan Dean about the near-term political agenda and what considerations may dominate when it comes to finalizing the Democrats' candidate. Nathan and Audrey also investigate how a second Trump administration may affect the dollar cyclically-- bullish via trade plus fiscal and monetary policy -- and structurally -- any tilt toward isolationism would be negative for the dollar in the longer term.

US Supreme Court Justice Brett M Kavanaugh would have a “great career as a restructuring professional,” according to University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill law professor Melissa B. Jacoby, as his Purdue Pharma 54-page dissent mirrored many bankruptcy lawyers’ skepticism regarding the US trustee’s arguments. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s State of Distressed Debt podcast, part of the FICC Focus series, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku interviews Jacoby, author of the new book Unjust Debts, on the impact of the Supreme Court’s Purdue decision on mass tort bankruptcies, including lingering questions about the future significance of consensual third-party releases (6:45). Earlier in the podcast, BI’s Phil Brendel and Noel Hebert discuss how the corporate credit market appears immune to geopolitical risks that don’t alter rate expectations. This episode concludes with all three discussing the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including Incora, Gol Airlines, Mallinckrodt and Diamond Sports (50:15).

A lot has changed in the world of munis over the past 40 years, but don’t take our word for it. Joining hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamiranoon the June edition of Masters of the Muniverse is Joe Mysak of Bloomberg News, retiring this month after 40-plus years of covering public finance. In this month’s episode, we discuss Joe’s storied career at Bloomberg, how the muni marke thas changed and what to expect for the second half of the year. To help us bid him farewell, we’re also joined by a few special guests.

Watching the household survey portion of the Employment Situation report may be a better indicator of the economy, Stuart Paul of Bloomberg Economics says on this edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Paul joins host Ira Jersey, BI chief US interest rate strategist, to discuss recent economic data trends, the disconnect between surveys and hard data, upcoming data and the BE outlook for monetary policy. Paul says he believes US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may be somewhat dovish at the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, and could use the Jackson Hole symposium to signal a September interest rate cut.

Carry has been the primary driver of EM risk premia in recent years, yet the landscape may be shifting as growth improves, inflation recedes and geopolitical uncertainty takes hold. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Managing Director of Emerging Markets at TCW Penny Foley joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief EM Credit Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss demand for idiosyncratic carry as investors look to EM for uncorrelated streams of future income. Foley and Sassower touch on election risk, foreign positioning, growth dynamics and central-bank policy divergence.

Diversification, lower default rates and elevated yields are just a few of the features of today’s collateralized loan obligation (CLO) landscape, says Senior Managing Director and Head of Structured Credit at Pretium Jerry Ouderkirk. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss the asset class’ current state and its evolution over nearly two decades. The dialog touches on what backdrops drive primary vs. secondary market allocations, default expectations, loan and CLO dynamics, among other topics.

Citadel and MFN competing to fund an unsecured junior DIP financing was just one of the "remarkable" aspects of Yellow Corp's ongoing bankruptcy, according to its Chief Restructuring Officer Matt Doheny. The North Country Capital's founder and president sat with Bloomberg Intelligence's (BI) Phil Brendel to share his philosophies on distressed investing, derived from a wide-ranging career in law, finance, and politics. They dive into two of the most fascinating bankruptcy cases of our time -- Yellow Corp and FTX (5:30). Prior to that, Phil and Noel Hebert of BI discuss the high yield market's strength despite some serious headwinds presented by a "higher for longer" environment. The podcast concludes with BI's Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil to tackle the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including Red Lobster, WeWork, Rite Aid, Diamond Sports, J&J, Yellow, Rackspace, Genesis, and FTX (49:50).

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed are conflicted on economic data, says Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Marco Strategy Matt Hornbach in this edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Hornbach joins host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the G3+ central bank, currency and interest-rate outlook. Though the totality of recent US economic data has been very confusing, Hornbach thinks a clear trend will soon emerge. The Morgan Stanley base case is for the Fed to start cutting rates in September and do so at each meeting until mid-2025 before stopping. Such an outcome would cause the 10-year Treasury to rally to 3.75%, he said.

Credit markets had a strong nine months of rally, particularly in spreads, although there were yield blips. As the environment changes with rate cuts, led by the ECB, are credit spreads too tight, despite low defaults? Is the rally justified on expected rate cuts for the rest of 2024? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Axel Potthof, Head of High Yield at Fisch Asset Management, discuss the state of credit after the first ECB cut and the long rally. They discuss relative value across junk, high grade and loans, fund flows, defaults, rate cuts and yield-curve views in detail. They also address CLOs and their support for loans, while on private credit, they ask if it is taking anything away from public markets.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matthew Tym, Head of Equity Derivatives Trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. Discussion includes the US presidential election and impact of yield enhancement using options on index volatility.

The Bank of Canada's 25-bp June rate cut and statement bolster the view that dollar bears tired of waiting for the Fed could retain the loonie-bear view until a more-dovish US move unfolds, according to the latest FX Moment podcast. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to Stuart Paul, US and Canada economist at Bloomberg Economics, about the BoC and Fed near-term dynamics and currency implications. Canada's more-advanced economic cycle vs. the US justifies the early policy action from the BoC and validates the yield-driven loonie bearish case against the US dollar, euro and sterling. Given the Canadian-US dollar proxy qualities, these views will most likely hold when euro-dollar and/or sterling-dollar bulls return.

“You’ve come off a period of 15-plus years of a zero interest-rate policy that has allowed politicians to believe that you can spend money at no cost,” says Patrick McMahon, co-founder and CIO of MKP Capital Management, “And we continue to do that, but now in a tremendously different interest-rate environment.” In this podcast, McMahon is joined by podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey and Associate US Rates Strategist Will Hoffman. The trio discuss the state of the US economy and potential paths forward for monetary policy. They also dive into shifts in global economic conditions and the likelihood of interest-rate correlations breaking down as monetary-policy cycles begin to diverge.

Higher-for-longer rates, along with elevated municipal-bond issuance, may signal that attractive entry points for muni investors are here for a bit longer. Though reinvestment season is typically a slower time for new issuance, this is an election year, which may mean issuers will want to avoid the uncertainties that come with every election season. Fund flows and rich ratios are concerns, but the asset class’s ability to provide low-risk, tax-exempt income remains a key feature, especially if inflation pressures increase. Joining hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on the May edition of Masters of the Muniverse is Nisha Patel from Parametric. In this month’s episode, we discuss the market outlook for the second half of the year and how technology overlays are driving Parametric’s strategies to help maximize returns.

NAV finance has been at the forefront of innovation in private credit markets, seeing tremendous growth since the start of the pandemic, when private equity funds began turning to alternative sources of funding. Pierre-Antoine de Selancy, co-founder and managing partner at 17Capital, joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on Credit Crunch to walk through how he's seen the evolution of the space. The conversation touches on the importance of fund-manager track records, use of proceeds, 17Capital's partnership with Oaktree, and a variety of other topics. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Geopolitical uncertainty is causing many developed and emerging market governments to invoke protectionist measures, and this new world order looks similar to the one that predated globalization. In this month’s episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Cooperatieve Rabobank Cross-Asset Strategist Christian Lawrence joins BI Chief EM Fixed-Income Strategist Damian Sassower to share his views on monetary policy, foreign-exchange carry, global growth and real-yield differentials. They also discuss central bank divergence, foreign positioning, inflation dynamics and option volatility. This podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Stickier inflation is here to say, and we probably aren’t returning to 2% in the near term, says Jerome Schneider, managing director and leader of short-term portfolio management and funding at PIMCO. Schneider is joined by host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey and Associate US Interest Rate Strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the state of short-term liquidity and money markets. The trio examine long- and short-term evolutions of the market, portfolio composition and the regulatory environment. They also wade into asset allocation, investor behavior and Federal Reserve policy.

High yield had a great 4Q rally in rates and spreads, which filtered into 1Q gains as defaults stayed low. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 0.95% and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds has come down, while it's higher in the US. Will 2Q sustain the gains, and why? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 2Q24 High Yield Survey with Fiona Hagdrup, Head of Leveraged Finance Funds and PM at M&G Investments, along with market outlook and trends in a Q&A format. They discuss our 2Q investor survey publication, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector in detail. They also discuss how leveraged loan prospects compare with junk.

Investigations into debtors’ pre-bankruptcy machinations are evolving toward a “consensus model” where committees of independent directors are cooperating with unsecured committees, according to Julia Winters, a partner in Katten’s commercial litigation practice. She shared her perspective on corporate governance amid financial turmoil, when Chapter 11 examiners make sense and the critical role indenture trustees play with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel. Prior to that, Phil and Noel Hebert of BI discuss how the uncertain, higher-rate environment is whipping corporate credit spreads around. The podcast concludes with the BI Podcast team tackling the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including J&J, WeWork, Ardagh Group, Yellow, Diamond Sports, Spirit Airlines, 99 Cents Only Stores and Express.

The challenges of unilateral FX intervention by the Bank of Japan may mean that a confirmed dovish Fed adjustment and/or a step-up in the BOJ tightening cycle remain the best path to address the cost-of-carry yen conundrum and take dollar-yen lower in the process, according to the latest FX Moment podcast. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to Chris Gaffney, World Markets president at EverBank, about whether it could be time to rejoin the dollar-bearish camp, with a focus on dollar-yen amid BOJ intervention considerations. However, Fed rate cuts and/or aggressive BOJ rate hikes aren't on the agenda just yet: For now, the best case scenario for dollar-yen bears may be a 155-160 range.

Slowing growth and elevated interest rates are opening the door to fresh opportunities in the special situations world, as companies face growing “time under tension.” Rob Dafforn, chief investment officer of opportunistic credit at Polus Capital Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast. Dafforn dives into the three main investment targets — cyclical losers, secular losers and frauds — along with creditor-on-creditor violence, the management process for a long-short portfolio and much more.

In this edition of All Options Considered, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Jennifer Welch, Chief Geo-economics Analyst. They focus on geopolitics and market volatility, with topics including the conflicts in the Middle East, oil politics and the US election.

Chairman Jerome Powell had opportunities at the May FOMC meeting to put interest rate hikes back on the table and surprisingly did not, says Ira Jersey, host and Chief US Interest Rate Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Jersey is joined by associate US Interest Rate Strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the key takeaways from both the Federal Reserve and US Treasury Department’s May 1 policy announcements. The pair unpack the implications of the announced taper to the pace of Fed balance-sheet runoff, as well as deficit and Treasury-issuance trends over the coming months.

Loose financial conditions are helping to alleviate short-term stability concerns, yet medium-term vulnerabilities are rising as the result of less-optimistic monetary policy expectations. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Fabio Natalucci, deputy director of monetary and capital markets at the IMF, and Jason Wu, head of the IMF’s Global Markets division, join Bloomberg Intelligence Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to share their views on underlying asset valuations amid the recent surge in financial market volatility. Natalucci, Wu and Sassower discuss global monetary policy, central bank divergence, foreign exchange carry, Chinese shadow banks and US private credit.

Inflation is holding stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s target, throwing expectations for rate cuts into turmoil and playing havoc with housing and mortgage markets. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Erica Adelberg, BI’s chief MBS strategist, and Will Hoffman, associate US rates strategist, to discuss the current and future state of the MBS market ahead of the May FOMC meeting. Adelberg breaks down recent trends across the US housing market, as well as year-to-date performance drivers for the MBS sector. She also examines the structural demand implications of continued MBS runoff from the Fed’s balance sheet.

Credit markets sold off in the past month, across the board, on rate-cut delays being priced in globally, led by the Fed. It takes us to an interesting juncture where we ask if this has longer to go or is largely done, and how it affects various asset classes in its aftermath. In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Raphael Thuin, Head of Capital Markets Strategies at Tikehau Capital, discuss the global situation's effect on inflation and central bank policy, its impact on global credit and the challenges of taking a directional view after the selloff. They discuss rates, yields and credit spreads along with curve flattening, the euro weakness and their impact on credit.

Alternative investments have historically been available only to institutions and ultrahigh-net-worth individuals, but that may be changing. Yieldstreet Chief Investment Officer Ted Yarbrough says democratizing access to alternatives is the company’s mission. He joined Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to talk about sourcing deals, leveraging technology and the importance of education when combining illiquid investments with retail clients. Yarbrough also spoke to the disruptive potential of Yieldstreet’s digital-only platform and his long-term outlook for the business. That and more on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Part of being an active manager is not only looking for assets that have an edge, are mispriced or are the next hottest thing, but also learning to avoid pitfalls and blind spots when it comes to municipal credit. In this Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Ben Barber, director of municipal bonds at Franklin Templeton, joins BI analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano to discuss municipal active management and best defensive and offensive strategies.

Complexity and illiquidity are desirable features for Dan Zwirn, CEO, CIO and Co-Founder of Arena Investors. Zwirn talks about the benefits of the special situations strategy, his concern about concurrent asset bubbles, and how partnering with others can benefit the investment process. That and much more as he joins hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier, each of Bloomberg Intelligence, on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

The US Treasury’s liquidity-support buyback operations aren’t quantitative easing by a different name, says Bloomberg Intelligence US Rates Strategy Associate Will Hoffman. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Hoffman joins co-host and BI’s Chief Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to unpack the drivers and implications of a tumultuous two-week period for the Treasury market. The pair discuss key economic developments, including the recent CPI surprise that sent yields soaring. They also dive into details of the Treasury’s upcoming buyback operations, as well as the biggest takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes, including commentary on the evolution of the central bank’s balance-sheet policy. 

In our latest FX Moment podcast, Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, chief Asia FX and rates strategist, reflect on navigating the G-10 and Asia foreign exchange markets in 2Q, while awaiting a shift in US economic data, Fed easing expectations and the dollar's fortunes. Audrey acknowledges recent chatter about euro-dollar parity, but doesn't embrace the view for now as much bearish news is priced in already. Stephen confirms that dollar-yuan bulls remain at the mercy of a dollar move lower and PBOC support for now, while there are also relevant intra-Asia FX views to consider into 2Q.

This edition of All Options Considered is part II of the recording of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2024 held in London on March 19th. This is the discussion from the second panel on zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs) by David Cross, Co-Head of US options at DASH Financial Technologies, Henry Schwartz VP and Global Head of Client Engagement at Cboe Global Markets, JB Mackenzie, Vice President & General Manager at Robinhood and Zubin Ramdarshan, Head of Equity and Index Product Design at Eurex. The panel is hosted by Bloomberg Anchor Kriti Gupta.

Deadlines and ensuring the right parties are at the table are two crucial ingredients for successful mediations, according to Ken Feinberg, who was the Special Master of the Federal September 11 Victim Compensation Fund and has helped administer some of the most complex public crises in American history. He discussed mass tort’s intersection with Chapter 11 with Bloomberg Intelligence Bankruptcy Litigation Analyst Negisa Balluku (6:00). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel discuss the risk-on euphoria in the credit markets, exemplified by half the US high yield universe now sporting spreads below 200 bps. The podcast concludes with Noel, Negisa and Phil reviewing ongoing bankruptcy and distressed situations, including Yellow, Genesis, Rackspace, Gol, WeWork, and Rite Aid (36:25).

New York City hasn’t fully recovered from the pandemic, and that leaves both the city and state concerned about future revenue to face any new economic contractions and market volatility. Thomas DiNapoli, State of New York comptroller, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano in this month’s bonus episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast to discuss aligning spending and revenue. This edition marks a slight departure from the previous slate of guests who have brought us perspectives on the market from the sell and buy sides and from data providers. As the economy potentially heads toward a more-volatile period, and with inflation proving to be anything but transitory, one of the largest issuers in the US muni market talks about risks and resiliency.

This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2024 held in London on March 19th. The first part is the opening speech by BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu on macro and volatility across markets. This is followed by the recording of the discussion from the first panel on VIX and option strategies by Pierre De Saab, Partner at Dominice, Tom Leake, Head of Solutions at Capstone Investment Advisors and Valeriu Trufas, Fund Manager at Atlantic House. The panel is hosted by Bloomberg Anchor and Acting London Bureau Chief, Anna Edwards.

Event risk will garner greater attention as the emerging-market election calendar heats up in May. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Wells Fargo Global Macro Strategist, FX & Emerging Markets Aroop Chatterjee joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM credit strategist, to share his views on funding currency diversification as the EM carry trade remains alive and well. Chatterjee and Sassower discuss the propensity for currency volatility to mean-revert, debate the impact of China’s economy on the broader commodity complex, and assess the impact of a shallower US Federal Reserve easing cycle on EM interest rate expectations.

Philosophy, process, people and performance — that’s what Jim Fellows, co-president and CIO of First Eagle Alternative Credit, says underpins FEAC’s investment approach. Fellows joins hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier, Bloomberg Intelligence credit analysts, on this episode of Credit Crunch to talk through the value of culture, the evolution in direct lending, leveraged loans and CLOs, and why he wants credit to just be boring. They discuss mid-market lending, the right risk premium between direct lending and syndicated markets, and how the FEAC team leverages technology to complement the investment process. Credit Crunch is a part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

I think the Fed is extremely data dependent, if anything, too data dependent, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC focus podcast, Wong joins host Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to unpack the March FOMC meeting. The pair discuss the surprises and developments from the meeting, including revisions to the Statement of Economic Projections and their implications for the path of Fed policy. Revisions to longer-run rate expectations, intermeeting black swan events, thresholds for interest rate cuts, and risk cases to economic forecasts are also discussed.

Municipals are starting the year semi-flat, and the latest read on consumer prices won’t do much to alleviate the concern of market participants that performance could be stagnant for the foreseeable future. At the same time, there are still some areas of relative value, even though the absolute tradeoff from late 2023 has faded to a large degree. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Jason Appleson, managing director and head of PGIM Fixed Income’s municipal-bond team. They discuss market dynamics, credit quality, election predictions and much more.

Credit markets had a strong six months of rally, particularly in spreads, although not necessarily in yields. Are credit spreads too tight, and is that supported by low defaults? Is that rally justified on expected rate cuts? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Marina Cohen, Head of European High Yield at Amundi Asset Management, discuss the situation in credit and the specific challenges of portfolio management after a six-month rally. They discuss relative value across junk, high grade and loans, fund flows, defaults, rate cuts and yield-curve views in detail. Particular attention was also given to private credit markets and how they are interacting with public markets in terms of supply and defaults.

The distressed cycle is on the upswing as rates pinch post-pandemic borrowers, in the eyes of William ‘Tuck’ Hardie, Managing Director in Houlihan Lokey’s Financial Restructuring Group (3:30). He joined the State of Distressed Debt podcast team to talk liability management transactions, where we are in the cycle, and why the involvement of private credit and CLO investors may mean more persistent distress. Tuck also shares stories from his 20-plus years with Houlihan and speaks to the culture that has enabled the team’s success. Prior to that, Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel of Bloomberg Intelligence review renewed declines in distressed debt and the general state of the market. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku and Phil reviewing ongoing bankruptcy and distressed situations including Gol, WeWork, Yellow, Audacy and Spirit Airlines (1:11:50).

The Federal Reserve is restrictive, and policymakers left themselves room to cut on the way up, says Greg Faranello, head of US rates at AmeriVet Securities. In this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast, Faranello joins hosts Ira Jersey, BI chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, US rates strategy associate, to discuss the state of the Treasury market. The trio examine the recent repricing of Fed policy expectations, outlook for quantitative tightening and the impact of persistent federal deficits on the secondary Treasury market.

In the latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G10 FX strategist, talks about the Swiss economy, the SNB's outlook and prospects for the franc with Valerie Lemaigre, head of Investment Office and chief economist at Banque Cantonale de Geneve. In particular, Valerie and Audrey explore how the outlook for Swiss growth and inflation may sway SNB near-term monetary policy direction and why the franc's recent underperformance (to the extent that it feeds positively through the inflation channel) takes pressure off the SNB to begin imminent easing. This suggests that a not-so-dovish March 21 SNB meeting may give the franc temporary breathing space, with a likely euro-Swiss near-term consolidation near 0.95-0.97, while dollar-Swiss remains at the mercy of the greenback's narrative.

MBS demand from banks and international buyers is seen as weakening in the near term as expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut and a taper in the pace of quantitative tightening is being pushed further into 2024, says Nick Maciunas, head of agency MBS research at JP Morgan Securities. In this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast, Maciunas joins hosts Ira Jersey, BI chief US rate strategist, and Erica Adelberg, BI’s chief US MBS strategist, to discuss shifts in MBS market dynamics. The trio dive into the microstructure of the market and how changes in Fed policy expectations impacts securities demand from the banking sector. They also touch on the drivers of the asset class’ recent underperformance and the implications of regulatory changes on hedging behavior.

For a market notoriously known for resisting change, the municipal bond market is arguably one of the most in need of advanced technologies. Artificial intelligence may finally bring better fair value pricing to munis’ nuanced and illiquid market. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by ficc.ai’s co-founder, Charles Elkan, to discuss how machine learning and muni ETFs can bring real-time pricing to muniland.

Emerging market carry should continue to outperform, as the fall in foreign exchange volatility reflects capitulation by dollar bulls. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through edition of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Phoenix Kalen, Head of EM Research at Société Générale, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM fixed income strategist, to share her view on valuations and investor positioning across EM local rates, currencies and credit. Macroeconomic risks appear back-loaded to 2H, when US presidential elections may fuel a rise in EM volatility.

Systematic credit investors seek to capitalize on mispricings that can be overlooked or hard to identify in more traditional investment strategies. Scott Richardson, director of Systematic Credit at Acadian Asset Management, has been at the forefront of the approach and joins Bloomberg Intelligence podcast hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to talk through they keys to success: Identifying relative value, modeling default forecasts, portfolio construction, comparing value in primary vs. secondary markets, examining liquidity premiums and the importance of transparency. Credit Crunch is a part of the FICC Focus podcast series

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe. They discuss zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs), cross-asset volatility and potential for options on Bitcoin ETFs.

Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, expects the Federal Reserve to taper its balance-sheet policy in May and to begin easing interest rates in June. Carpenter joins hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of the Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategy team to give his views on economies and markets in this Macro Matters edition of the BI FICC Focus podcast. The trio discuss ongoing economic and inflationary dynamics, including the disinflationary process, potential catalysts and impacts of adjustments to the Fed’s balance-sheet policy. Carpenter also digs into the US Treasury Department’s decision-making process when determining the composition of Treasury issuance.

High yield had a great 2023 in both US and Europe, due to a strong 4Q rally in rates and spreads. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 0.8% and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control, while it's higher in the US. Will 1Q sustain the 4Q gains, and will we see defaults pick up? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 1Q24 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies. They discuss our 1Q24 investor survey publication, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector in detail.

Sticky high rates have put an elevated floor under distressed supply. That’s the first topic Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s head of global credit strategy, and Philip Brendel, BI distressed credit analyst, discuss in this month’s State of Distressed Debt edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Then, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Phil interview Abid Qureshi, a partner in Akin Gump’s financial restructuring practice, on his insights into liability management exercises and the impacts of mediation (5:40). Finally, Negisa, Noel, and Phil discuss their outlooks for WeWork, GOL Airlines, Incora, and Diamond Sports (48:00) in light of recent developments.

Credit-risk sharing structures have undergone a significant evolution since the financial crisis, leading us to explore its emergence in markets and transformative impact on modern risk-management strategies. Man Group’s co-head of credit risk sharing, Matthew Moniot, joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast. The conversation delves into the birth of the asset class, US vs. European markets and the structuring process.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G-10 FX strategist, discusses the dollar's prospects in the wake of recent US macro news flow with Brad Bechtel, global head of FX sales and trading at Jefferies LLC. Brad and Audrey look at how the unexpectedly strong turn in US data has revived broad dollar strength, consistent with Brad's base case. Yet, given ever-changing G10-FX drivers and narratives, both favor taking a quarter-by-quarter approach. Audrey and her guest agree the cost-of-carry conundrum won't be solved by the Bank of Japan ending YCC, or even modest rate rises. In the near term, they think yen bulls may look for Swiss-yen downside and forget about a sustainable decline in dollar-yen for now -- the latter pair may reach 152 before it reaches 140.

The risk of inflation re-accelerating is really in the last three months of 2024, says Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast, Wong joins host and Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss details of the January FOMC meeting, including implications for the path of monetary policy and any potential easing this year. The pair also address some of the risks to the economy, both to the upside and downside, that may influence future Fed decisions. 

With the election year well on its way, peak partisanship and geopolitical volatility may mean increased risk for municipal bond markets. Though past election years have returned more wins than losses for munis, macro issues will continue to be a hurdle. To discuss these possible threats and the latest federal income-tax developments, we have Bloomberg Intelligence’s tax policy expert, Andrew Silverman, joining co-hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano of BI.

Blue Owl has grown from a few ideas to an alternatives manager with over $150 billion in assets under management, including almost $80 billion in credit. Craig Packer, co-president and head of credit for Blue Owl, joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the evolution of the company, the direct lending market, why the asset class can continue to grow, and where Blue Owl sees opportunity. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

“In the 12 months following a rate hiking cycle, typically, going out duration has a really strong potential return,” says Bobby Martin, Co-Head of Fixed Income Investment Specialists at UBS Asset Management. Martin joins Macro Matters host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jerseyto review the state of domestic and global fixed-income markets. The pair discuss the stronger-than-expected macroeconomic backdrop and what it means for markets, as well as the risks facing the US economy in the medium term.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management. They discuss the key themes in the options market amid the focus on the easing cycle this year.

Global rate cuts seem certain, but the timing is less so. In this episode of the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist is joined by colleague Huw Worthington, chief European rate strategist, to preview the themes and research found within their recently published deep dive on the G3+ rates markets. The report features a comprehensive review of the global sovereign debt markets that underpin the world’s financial markets. It includes proprietary models and centralized analysis of influential trends and catalysts from the BI global interest-rate strategy team across the medium to long term, along with forecasts from Bloomberg Economics. Read the report here on the Bloomberg Terminal.

CLOs are driving loan supply and in this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Credit Strategist and Paul Mehta, Head of Leveraged Loans at Aberdeen, reflect on how the leveraged loan market fared last year and the outlook for loans in 2024. They discuss BI's leveraged loan outlook publication covering loan pricing, returns, supply and relative value vs. high yield bonds as well as loan growth relative to the bond market and private credit in detail and also address the outlook for CLO issuance, reinvestment risks and arbitrage evolution and implications for 2024.

Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US credit strategiest and Philip Brendel, BI distressed credit analyst, talk about the seasonal credit trends that helped push the US distressed ratio to 19-month lows, and how the supply of distressed debt isn’t likely to see much of a rise until at least the beginning of March. Chaney Sheffield, a partner at Canyon Partners, joins them to discuss his outlook for distressed opportunities in the new year, and talks about his firm’s investment platform and process (5:50). Finally, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku offeres an update on developments in Rite Aid, Yellow Corp, Diamond Sports, Audacy bankruptcies and FTX’s litigation against Grayscale (1:00:00).

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G-10 FX strategist, discusses 2024's currency prospects with Mark Andersen, global head of asset allocation at UBS Wealth Management. In particular, Mark and Audrey look at how the 4Q 5% US dollar BBDXY selloff affects their 2024 outlook. The broadly weaker US dollar narrative remains in place, and Mark highlights a particularly strong case for the Aussie and the yen this year, while sterling's improved virtues are highlighted by Audrey.

Emerging markets enter the new year on a high note as fixed-income investors continue to embrace the soft landing narrative. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through Podcast, Emso Asset Management Co-CIO Jens Nystedt and Global Head of Research Patrick Esteruelas, join Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM credit strategist, to deliver their year-ahead outlook on EM rates, credit and foreign exchange. From US exceptionalism and extreme China pessimism to central bank policy easing and election-related risk, the trio identify challenges and opportunities facing EM investors in 2024.

The Federal Reserve’s communications have gotten more open — perhaps too open — during the time Michael McKeehas covered the central bank for Bloomberg News. McKee, international economic and policy correspondent, joinsIra Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of theFICC Focus podcast. McKee talks about the shifts in the Fed’s communications policy, how it’s influenced his reporting and policy makers’ interactions with markets. The two discuss press conferences, the Fed’s June 2022 “leak” to the media and why the Fed tends to stay out of discussions about fiscal policy following former Chairman Alan Greenspan’s advocacy in the early 2000s.

What might we expect in the New Year for rates, fixed income and currency markets? The FICC Focus team looks ahead to 2024, and reviews some memorable moments from 2023 in this special year end episode of the FICC Focus podcast.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives a brief overview of the key themes from the volatility markets in 2023 and the outlook ahead.

Returns, diversification and the derisking of bank balance sheets are among contributors to the growth in private credit in recent years. KKR Partner and Global Head of Private Credit Daniel Pietrzak joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the market’s growth, asset-based vs. direct lending, the benefits of scale and more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

JP Morgan’s Head of Municipal Research and Strategy Peter Degroot, Wells Fargo’s Head of Municipal Markets Strategy Vikram Rai and Barclays’ Head of Municipal Research Mikhail Foux join Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano on this month’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast. The three strategists reflect on the municipal landscape for 2023 and in some cases hope that their calls for the year ahead are not dashed by unforeseen forces, once again.

“The last mile on inflation will be difficult, but the Fed is more optimistic that they can thread the needle,” says Stuart Paul, US and Canadian Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Paul joins FICC Focus host and Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey, and Associate US Rates Strategist Will Hoffman to review the results from the December FOMC Meeting. Paul and the US Economics team anticipated the dovish tone from Chairman Powell, yet highlight several areas of surprise, such as the Fed’s confidence in a soft landing despite a slowing macroeconomic backdrop. Jersey, Paul and Hoffman dissect the outcome of the meeting and discuss the implications for domestic rates markets and the economy across the short and long term.

Noel Hebert, head of Bloomberg Intelligence’s global credit strategy, and Philip Brendel, BI distressed-credit analyst, review the credit markets’ November “melt-up.” Then, they have a wide-ranging discussion with Andy Taylor, head of research at Carronade Capital, on the opportunistic investing process, the power industry’s AI tailwind and financial technologies to “kick the can” (3:45). Finally, Negisa Balluku, BI bankruptcy-litigation analyst, joins Noel and Phil to share her take on Purdue Pharma’s oral argument before the Supreme Court. They also cover the latest developments in WeWork, Yellow Corp., Audacy, Rite Aid (1:15:15).

The inflation vs. recession debate is crucial to the 2024 outlook and the path of central bank rate cuts critical for all markets, including credit. The key question is whether a huge rates rally will be boosting credit or if it needs saving from alternative sources like private credit, which has been booming. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Fabian Chrobog, Founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer at North Wall Capital Ltd, discuss all aspects of 2024 Outlook including central bank actions, credit conditions, yield curves, rating moves and defaults. There's a special focus on private credit including premiums demanded over public markets, investor and issuer incentives, securitisation and the outlook for 2024 volume. This episode was produced and edited by Victoria Garcia Loustau.

The latest FX Moment podcast focuses on how evolving macroeconomic narratives could shape the US dollar outlook into 2024, with persistent uncertainties warranting pragmatism even if you still believe, as we do, in an underwhelming US economy in a disinflationary context, with associated dollar weakness. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, BI's chief Asia FX and rate strategist, also discuss China's macroeconomic predicament, acknowledging the not-so-bearish effect on currencies amid pessimism in China expectations in 2024 vs. 2023. Stephen and Audrey also reflect on the key investment themes and drivers for Asia currencies in 2024 and identify the best-poised and most-exposed Asia currencies as we contemplate 2024. This episode was produced and edited by Victoria Garcia Loustau.

Emerging-market creditors are riding high after another strong November, with returns ranging from 5-6%. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Cathy Hepworth, managing director and head of EM debt at PGIM Fixed Income, joins host Damian Sassower, BI’s chief EM fixed-income strategist, to deliver her year-ahead outlook on EM interest rates, credit and currencies. With policy-easing under way across a growing number of developing economies, she discusses the opportunities and challenges facing EM central banks as they attempt to navigate the expected slowdown in global growth.

Rising volatility, maturity walls and the withdrawal of traditional lenders are driving issuers and investors to capital solutions experts in the private credit world. Alice Cavalier and David Brooks, co-heads of the Capital Solutions Strategy group at Arcmont Capital Management, join Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast. A deep dive into refinancing solutions, private lending and secondary debt, all part of Arcmont’s three-pronged investment approach, as well as regional complexities and the competitive landscape within private-credit are discussed.

There’s been heightened volatility in rates and tax-loss harvesting may or may not be the best course of action. On this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, part of the FICC Focus podcast series, Andy Kalotay, a leading authority on quantitative analysis of municipal bonds, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano for an in-depth discussion about the muni market this year, tax-loss harvesting and what’s on the horizon for 2024. 

Rate markets are mispricing early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Huw Worthington and Ira Jersey say on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. They discuss their general views for government debt issuance, which part of the investor base may buy the new debt and central bank policy outlooks. Worthington also goes into detail about recent plans for fiscal stimulus going into the UK elections, which need to occur sometime in 2024.

Economic and monetary policy uncertainty have been among the few constants confronting credit markets throughout 2023, generating divergent views around return prospects even as high yield markets look set to exit the year largely unscathed. “I haven’t seen more dislocations than I see today,” John McClain, Portfolio Manager High Yield & Corp Credit Strategies at Brandywine Global talks about the array of options in today’s credit market. McClain joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this Credit Crunch episode of the FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion about what’s ahead for high yield, targeting esoteric risk and some of the structural changes impacting the asset class.

Emerging market investors have found the Fed more macro-relevant than China, Russia or Israel in recent weeks, as equities are up, oil is down, spreads have tightened and the US dollar has declined since the war erupted in Gaza. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Win Thin, senior vice president and global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed-income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his outlook on EM interest rates and foreign exchange. From the rise in US Treasury volatility to China’s sluggish economic recovery, the opportunities and challenges facing emerging-market economies are also reviewed.

The inflation vs. recession debate and how that will drive a Fed pause vs. pivot dynamics is casting a shadow over all markets, including credit. The key question for us is whether the tightening of financial conditions will affect credit. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies at Mizuho international, discuss the macro headwinds due to central bank tightening, especially the Fed, and the impact on risk-free and risk assets, including credit. They address yield-curve inversion and its correction, and the impact on credit conditions. The episode also highlights credit fundamentals and flows.

Our latest FX Moment podcast focuses on changes in US dollar price action and what can be learned when it comes to finalizing 2024 US dollar prospects. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G10 FX strategist, and Jeremy Stretch, Chief International Strategist at CIBC World Markets discuss the dollar-negative narrative that could unfold in 2024, and conclude it won't be an easy ride for dollar bears as long as the Fed holds onto a high-for-long rate language, with Jeremy suggesting that euro-dollar could see a pullback toward $1.02-$1.03 before contemplating a brighter outlook. Audrey and Jeremy also look at the outlook for the Canadian dollar, with the prospect for 2024 Bank of Canada dovishness likely to leave the currency exposed to not only the US dollar, but also vs. the euro and the Aussie dollar.

Distressed debt has risen sharply in the past two weeks, with the outlook increasingly uncertain heading into year-end. Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss this and other topics in this edition of the State of Distressed Debt podcast. In other topics, Balluku interviews Electric Capital General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer Emily Meyers on the impact of bankruptcies on crypto's regulatory landscape here and abroad, the SEC's recent losing streak in court and Meyers' outlook for legislative progress (7:40). Also, Balluku, Hebert and Brendel discuss Rite Aid, Akumin, WeWork, Incora, Hertz's post-petition interest fight and Diamond Sports (50:10).

The bar has increasingly moved higher for the Bank of England to hike again in this cycle after leaving rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting. The market is focused on the timing and extent of 2024 rate cuts. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist. They discuss the BOE, economic outlook and market volatility.

“Our view is that the Fed is done hiking. But the question now turns to how long the Fed maintains rates at this level,” Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist says. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast, Jersey reviews recent developments following the November FOMC meeting and the Treasury department’s quarterly refunding announcement. He says Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish than he had at previous meetings, but still anticipates the Fed holding rates at current levels through 2024. Jersey also highlights a framework for how the quantum of Treasury debt may affect yields at differing levels of economic growth.

“There's not enough private credit capital relative to private equity demand,” Armen Panossian, managing director, head of performing credit and incoming co-CEO for Oaktree Capital Management says. Panossian joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this Credit Crunch episode of the podcast FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion about private-credit growth, the high-yield opportunity, expected impacts from a prospective economic slowdown and more.

“There’s always an opportunity at the issuer level in leveraged finance,” Bryan Whalen, co-chief investment officer and a generalist portfolio manager for TCW’s fixed income group says. Whalen joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss positioning for economic turbulence across core-plus and high yield, the value proposition in mortgage-backed securities and why corporate credit spreads look tight.

Emerging market risk premia is on the rise, as higher geopolitical risk amplifies the impact from tighter financial conditions. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, JPMorgan Managing Director of EM Fixed Income Strategy Saad Siddiqui joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver his outlook on emerging market interest rates and foreign exchange. From the selloff in US Treasuries to rising oil prices and China's struggling economic recovery, we discuss the opportunities and risks facing EM investors.

Rates are higher (for longer, if we’re being honest), the curve is pancaking and, once again, fixed-income losses will be headline fodder. However, with every tick higher in benchmark yields, municipals get an opportunity that many in the asset class won’t see in a career. For those investors focused on building an income stream and less on immediate statement marks, munis are becoming the must-have accessory for this fall season.  James Pruskowski, chief investment officer and head of the Global Client Business at 16Rock asset management, joins Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano this month to discuss the latest run-up in rates, the macro headwinds buffeting the market and what technological change in munis may look like.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Mandy Xu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence at CBOE. They address concerns over zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs), the typical users and common strategies traded. Other topics include the lack of reactivity of the VIX to market declines and dispersion trading.

“There’s no hope on the [US federal] deficit front,” says Robert Tipp, PGIM’s Chief Investment Strategist and head of global bonds on this 200th edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Tipp joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on this Macro Matters episode to discuss the state of the global rates markets, including Tipp’s view on the near term and more secular drivers of Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s policy. Tipp sees the longer-term bull market in rates coming to an end, and looks for the Fed’s policy-rate terminal floor to be at or above 3%. Importantly, he also views deficits as being detrimental to the Treasury market, but sees opportunity for investors to benefit from being in corporate credit as the Fed’s hiking cycle ends.  In the Interest Rate Intro segment of the podcast, US interest rate strategy associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about financial conditions and how tightening feeds into the Fed’s near-term interest rate action.

High yield had a great year in terms of returns in both US and Europe. In Europe, we saw just two index defaults this year and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control while its surged in the US. Will 4Q sustain this year's gains, and when do we see a default wave, if any? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 4Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies. They discuss our 4Q23 investor survey publication, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector in detail.

“Disruptors can ruin the status quo, but they can replace the status quo with something that is not sustainable because it doesn’t have a core business model. Streaming right now is in that space,” Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University says on this month’s State of Distressed edition of the FICC Focus podcast. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss corporate credit’s resiliency amid negative seasonals and high rates. Then, Hebert and Brendel have an in-depth feature interview with Damodaran on a wide variety of valuation challenges, including inflation, distressed companies, disrupted media, dysfunctional governments and foreign conflict (7:50). Balluku rejoins in the last segment to review the latest developments for Hawaiian Electric, Alameda, Grayscale, Audacy and Diamond Sports (1:11:42).

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics' US economist, discuss possible US recession risks, the US economic outlook into 4Q and 2024 and associated downside risks for the dollar. Audrey and her colleague talk about how the US economy already may have started to turn, and how -- combined with a mid-term disinflation outlook -- 2024 Fed rate cuts may be contemplated after all, which could trigger yet another change in the FX narrative and give dollar downside a chance again. Audrey and Stuart also touch on US politics and how government shutdown risks could soon return as a market consideration and potentially become more of a dollar driver than in the past, with more of a negative effect.

“Your optimized portfolio isn't optimal if you can't trade it.” Paul Kamenski and Robert Lam, co-heads of credit for Man Numeric, join Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about the evolution and outlook for systematic credit. Trade automation, training models and why systemic credit is still in it's early stages of growth. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series. 

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Pierre de Saab, Partner at Dominice to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape. Topics discussed includes interest-rate volatility, VIX risk premium, call overwriting strategies and zero-days-to-expiry options (ODTEs), which now make up more than 50% of the overall volume of SPX options traded.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist. They discuss the Bank of England, economic outlook and market volatility.

Despite trillions being passed through recent bills to reduce inflation and spur infrastructure spending, neither goal has really been met. At first blush, the prospects of all that federal money being directed at much needed infrastructure improvements and repairs was music to the muni markets ears. However, that dream of being part of the funding solution has never really materialized and only added to the myriad of issues facing the tax-exempt market. Joining myself and Karen this month to discuss the many challenges the municipal market is facing is Hector Negroni, Founder and CEO of Foundation Credit. For those unfamiliar, Foundation is a leading alternative asset manager dedicated to municipal credit and infrastructure debt markets in the United States. Hector is no stranger to our markets, with a career spanning over 3 decades in investing proprietary trading, public/private financing, derivatives, and structured products.

“The 10-year Treasury ending the year around 4.2-4.3% seems fair, but the recent selloff has been overdone,” William Marshall, head of US rates strategy at BNP Paribas says. Marshall joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast to discuss his market views in the wake of the September FOMC meeting. The pair dissect recent yield moves across the curve, as well as underlying catalysts and narratives. These include a persistently high federal deficit, elevated Treasury issuance and potential sources of demand for securities amid a deluge of T-bill and coupon issuance. Marshall sees no broad liquidity pressures on funding markets via the impact of the Fed’s asset runoff, which could continue past his expectations for interest rate cuts beginning in June.

In this month’s State of Distressed Debt edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss high yield’s and distressed’s uncanny strength through the summer amid higher rates. Then, bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Brendel have an in-depth interview with Kris Hansen, co-chair of the financial restructuring group at Paul Hastings, on how “creditor-on-creditor violence” is a misnomer, the intersection of crypto and bankruptcy, Chapter 11 as a forum for resolving mass tort and his outlook for restructurings (6:10). Balluku, Brendel and Hebert wrap up with the latest developments for Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Alameda, Grayscale, Yellow Corp., Diamond Sports and National Cinemedia (1:22:09).

Should the US economy avoid a recession over the coming months as anticipated by the Bloomberg Economics team, the Federal Reserve may remain on hold for all of 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says on the latest episode of the Macro Matters podcast. The Fed may be forced to end asset runoff in 1H24, he says, as reserves become scarce. In addition, Jersey answers other common questions from buy-side investors during his recent California roadshow, including about the potential near-term impact of federal deficits on domestic rate markets. US Interest Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman views nuances to August’s monthly Treasury statement and the implications for issuance.

Emerging market currency volatility is on the rise, as the dovish tilt in monetary policy causes real yield differentials to converge with the US and Europe. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through episode, Shamaila Khan, Head of Emerging Markets & Asia-Pacific at UBS Asset Management Americas, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her outlook on emerging market debt. From idiosyncratic risk in EM distressed debt to China’s struggling property sector, we discuss the opportunities and risks facing EM creditors.

Credit markets saw stupendous growth in socially responsible and green bonds from a variety of credits and many sustainability and ESG specialized funds and investment vehicles have taken off in the past four years. In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Mitch Reznick, Head of Sustainable Fixed Income at Federated Hermes Limited, discuss the shades of sustainable bond and fund types: Sustainability, ESG, SRI, Green, GSS among others and differentiate them and address their performance and alpha vs. mainstream credit. They also discuss flows into such funds and supply of these securities in comparison to mainstream. Lastly, they discuss the various relevant global regulations, including stewardship.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, BI chief Asia FX and rates strategist, look into how the recently announced plan for a larger BRICS has rekindled the de-dollarisation theme. Audrey and her colleague address the highly relevant economics and politics behind the BRICS extension and look into how this may impact de-dollarisation. In practice, expect limited impact for decades to come, with the dollar unchallenged on the International Monetary System (for now), and the euro arguably more of a challenger than the yuan in the near term.

Money has been leaking out of municipal mutual funds this year, but the same can’t be said for alternative products, such as exchange traded funds, though there’s been some recent cooling, especially in separately managed account platforms, an area we’ve spent much time exploring this year on Masters of the Muniverse. In this episode of the podcast, Andrew Clinton, CEO and founder of Clinton Investment Management, sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano for an in-depth discussion about the muni market, recession expectations, his feelings post-Jackson Hole and the outlook for 4Q.

The keys to evaluating structured credit are “the value of the assets, the value of the structure and the value of the option,” according to Brett Jefferson, founder, president and co-CIO of Hildene Capital, with $14 billion in assets under management. Jefferson and co-CIO Dushyant Mehra join Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s director of FICC research, and Sam Geier, senior credit strategy associate, on this Credit Crunch episode, part of the FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion on the value in TruPs, identifying the fulcrum in CLOs, mortgage-backed products and the benefits of diversification.

The Treasury market selloff throughout August was in part due to increased issuance, but largely driven by the market repricing the future path of monetary policy, TD Securities USA’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Gennadiy Goldberg says on this Macro Matters podcast episode hosted by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey. Goldberg discusses his views on the Treasury market, the future of global monetary-policy actions and investor expectations for the economy.  In this week’s Interest Rate Intro segment, US Interest Rate Strategy associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the BI Rates team’s recent research note, which highlighted what may come next for technical yield levels.

Credit markets have had a correction in the past month, across the board. It takes us to an interesting juncture where we ask if the correction has longer to go or is largely done, and which asset classes stand to benefit most in its aftermath. In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Boris Okuliar, Co-Head of Global Liquid Credit at Ares Management, discuss the situation in global credit and the challenges of directional view after this correction. They discuss rates, yields, credit spreads and supply in detail. There's a particular focus on leveraged loans, high yield bonds, the impact of the CLO market and private lending.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G10 FX Strategist and Maeva Cousin, senior euro area economist at Bloomberg Economics, look into the euro and US near-term growth dynamics and how these may shape BI's euro-dollar outlook into year-end. We also touch on the euro-inflation outlook and European Central Bank's rate prospects for 2023 and 2024. For now, our positive euro-dollar relative growth differential outlook holds, but recent euro data have underwhelmed while US data have tended to overwhelm. The euro price action has been resilient thus far, though our strategists conclude this is no time for complacency.

Latin America central banks continue to focus on inflation, yet fiscal deficits remain elevated and growth is in decline. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast episode, Fernando Losada, Managing Director and Head of Latin America Sovereign Research at Oppenheimer, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver his outlook on Latin American debt markets, with a focus on Central America and the Caribbean. From tourist inflows and remittances to oil imports and climate change, we discuss the economic and fundamental risks that have the potential to affect fixed-income valuations.

Spreads of mortgage-backed securities may remain wide, though net and gross supply could remain depressed given interest rate and housing market dynamics, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief MBS Strategist Erica Adelberg says. Adelberg joins Macro Matters podcast host and BI’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to share her view on relative value within the mortgage markets, compare MBS to corporate bonds and discuss how recent bank regulations may affect mortgage demand. You can access more of Adelberg’s research on the BI Mortgages Dashboard by typing {BI MORTN }.

The red-hot credit rally leaves debt markets vulnerable ahead of historically-worst months, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku say on this month’s edition of the State of Distressed Debt podcast. Guest Ralph Brubaker, the James H.M. Sprayregen Professor of Law at the University of Illinois College of Law, joins Balluku for an in-depth feature interview on corporate tortfeasors’ persistent efforts to exploit Chapter 11 protections (6:50). Hebert, Balluku and Brendel wrap up the episode with the latest developments for Johnson & Johnson, Cineworld, Crypto and Diamond Sports (50:20). Related research: Ralph Brubaker, The Texas Two-Step and Mandatory Non-Opt-Out Settlement Powers (July 2022) Amici Curiae Brief of Bankruptcy Law Professors Ralph Brubaker, George W. Kuney, and Bruce A. Markell, In re Purdue Pharma (Mar. 2022)

The Bank of England stepped down the pace of tightening as it closes in on the peak but isn't quite yet done and remains highly data dependent. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Bloomberg Senior UK Economist.

The re-risking with the market being chased higher has crushed equity volatility while the skew in rates at the back of the curve is toward higher yields. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, Founder of Quadratic Capital Management. Discussion points include key themes from the rates and equity volatility markets. Find out more about Quadratic Capital Management here: http://www.ivoletf.com

The Federal Reserve may remain on hold for the rest of the year as inflation should moderate, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics Anna Wong says on this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus Podcast. Wong joins host Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss her view on the economy and future Fed policy. Jersey mentions some investors are concerned about a reacceleration of inflation, to which Wong handicaps the possibility, but notes even if inflation does climb a bit again, the Fed might not have to hike rates further.  In this week’s Interest Rate Intro segment, US Interest Strategy Associate William Hoffman asks Jersey about his deficit and Treasury issuance forecast. Jersey notes additional Treasury coupon issuance may be announced at next week’s Treasury Refunding announcement.

Asset-based finance has moved nearer center stage in the fast growing private credit market, competing with corporate direct lending for attention. Castlelake’s Co-CEO and Chief Investment Officer Evan Carruthers joins hosts Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s director of FICC research, and Sam Geier, senior credit strategy associate, on this Credit Crunch podcast episode to talk about the current landscape and opportunity amid uncertainty. Turbulence in aviation finance and innovation in consumer, as well as the small and medium enterprise space are among topics discussed.

Green shoots are forming in emerging market debt as growth slows, inflation eases and the geopolitical climate turns more market friendly. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Ilke Pienaar, Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income Sovereign Research at PineBridge Investments, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her mid-year outlook on EM credit. She discusses the firm's key convictions across EM, with Asia high yield exhibiting improved fundamentals and attractive valuations.

BI global credit strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss how credit markets are "melting up" with equities, but that it may be fleeting. Noel and Phil also have an in-depth feature interview with John Pavelski, co-head of North America for the Carlyle Credit Opportunities Fund, on the possibilities created as the private credit market weathers a distressed cycle (10:30). Finally, Negisa, Noel and Phil discuss the latest developments in crypto bankruptcies, Audacy, Diamond Sports and J&J (1:04:30).

The landscape for municipal asset management has been changing over the past year, and there’s been lower beta options such as exchange traded funds and separately managed accounts. For those looking to expand or break into this space, scaling the business is the single largest pain point. Investortools’ Senior Vice President James Morris joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast to discuss this challenge and highlight an off-the-shelf solution.

The Fed's nearing rate peak and evidence of a turning US economy should revive the bearish view of the US dollar in 2H. In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G10 FX strategist, examines the outlook for the US and global economies and the implications for currencies with Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management. In particular, Solita and Audrey acknowledge that beyond a structurally dollar-negative case that's not going away, a shifting US cyclical and inflation narrative and near Fed rate peak are giving dollar bears another chance in 2H, with $1.15 euro-dollar and 0.85 dollar-Swiss feasible into 2H and beyond.

European high yield has had just two defaults this year and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control after a positive 1H for returns. Will 3Q sustain the 1H gains and when do we see a default wave, if any? Listen to hear Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence discuss the results of the 3Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies. They discuss our 3Q23 survey publication, in detail, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sectors in detail.

The Treasury yield curve may remain inverted for quite a while, but bull steepening could begin as the Federal Reserve finished its interest rate hikes, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist says in this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus podcast.  Jersey provides his short- and longer-term view of the rate markets, mentioning how the real federal funds rate may peak at about 2.5% if consensus inflation estimates and market pricing are realized. Jersey is also joined by US Interest Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman to discuss the rebuild of the Treasury General Account (the government’s checking account held at the Fed), and how T-bill issuance has thus far been primarily funded by lower use of the Fed’s reverse repurchase agreement facility. They also talk about how Fed liabilities move around during the TGA rebuild, and Jersey gives his expectation of when the Fed runoff might end due to bank reserves reaching their “tipping point.”

After central banks gathered in Portugal at the ECB Forum earlier this week, a turn in European inflation and a strong 1Q GDP revision in the US caused a sell off in developed market sovereign debt. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by his European counterpart Huw Worthington on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Huw gives his outlook for inflation and central bank policy actions in Europe and the UK, while Jersey highlights his shift in view that the Federal Reserve may hike further. In this episode’s Interest Rate Intro segment, US Interest Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the Fed’s bank stress tests and how they may be affecting markets. Jersey gives a summary of the tests and his view that bank compliance has depressed risk taking and therefore liquidity.

Structured credit markets have evolved into a multi-trillion dollar asset class, one that we dive into in the latest episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast series. Waterfall Asset Management’s Managing Partner and Cofounder Jack Ross, one of the pioneers in asset-based securities, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Director of FICC Research Noel Hebert and Senior Credit Strategy Associate Sam Geier for an in-depth discussion about the transformation of the asset class over Ross’ storied career, areas of concern in commercial real estate and consumer spending, as well as how the burgeoning private credit space is influencing the investment landscape.  This recorded discussion is not intended to be and does not constitute an offer of Waterfall Asset Management, LLC’s (“Waterfall”) investment advisory services. The information, statements, commentary, views, and opinions (collectively, the “Commentary”) provided in this discussion are general in nature, may reflect the perspective of the individual rather than Waterfall and the Commentary is not intended to be and should not be construed as the provision of investment advice by Waterfall, to that listener or generally, and do not result in any listener being considered a client or customer of Waterfall. Any discussion of the past performance of any investment, sector, or market is not indicative of any future results. Further, the Commentary is as of the date of recording and may not be current at the time that listener hears the discussion. Waterfall does not undertake any obligation whatsoever to provide any form of update, amendment, change or correction to the Commentary.

The Bank of England remains highly data-dependent, re-accelerating to a 50-bp hike "at this particular meeting" given the upside inflation surprises. The wide difference between actual inflation data releases vs. consensus keeps volatility elevated at the front end of the yield curve. The flattening of the curve reflects the risk to growth and increased pricing of cuts. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist.

An improving inflation outlook alongside weaker cross-asset volatility and more moderate global growth is contributing to the bullish narrative in EM local government debt. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Phoenix Kalen, Head of Emerging Market Research at Societe Generale, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her mid-year outlook on EM local currencies and debt. She discusses the firm's key EM trading themes, and highlights various structural, idiosyncratic and tactical opportunities.

The Federal Reserve may not hike the additional 50 bps shown in the infamous “Dot Plot” at the June monetary policy meeting, Bloomberg Economics’ Chief US Economist Anna Wong remarks. She joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to recap the FOMC meeting and discuss her views for the future. Wong still expects a mild recession in 2H, thinks the Fed will maintain interest rates near the peak and that balance-sheet reduction will continue into next year. She also believes Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference was relatively neutral, though the dot plot was hawkish.

The stage is set for municipals to look better vs. other fixed income in 2023-2024. Though fund flows remain a concern, the asset class’ ability to provide tax-exempt income exceeding inflation remains a key feature, especially if recessionary pressures increase. Parametric’s Nisha Patel joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse FICC Focus podcast to discuss the advantages of technology-driven systematic solutions and some of the strategies used to maximize returns. Patel also shares how not all ladder strategies need to be passive.

Credit markets have a dour seasonal outlook and piecemeal restructurings are flailing. BI Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel, and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss these issues and more on the June edition of the State of Distressed Debt Podcast. Guest Matthew Cantor, Head of Legal Strategies and Special Situations of Pretium Partners, shares his views on litigation finance, distressed banks and the distressed cycle (8:12). Also of note: the latest developments in Serta, Incora, FTX, Diamond Sports, J&J and Cineworld (46:05).

European credit markets have shifted since the banking crisis and the rally that followed, especially the shrinkage in junk. It's always interesting to hear views from across regions and this time we head to sunny France for some Gallic finesse in credit portfolio management. In the 11th episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, and Benoit Soler, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Credit at Keren Finance, discuss the situation in European credit and the specific challenges of ESG portfolio management with new regulations and the failure of CDS to "deliver" when expected.

Ever-changing drivers and low FX conviction views have been consistent with a $1.06-$1.10 euro-dollar in recent months, but a break of $1.10 toward $1.15 and higher remains feasible later this year. In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, reflects on the euro-dollar's outlook as we contemplate 2H and after a very challenging 1H for bullish views. Childe-Freeman believes the positive narrative holds into 2H, with the European Central Bank's and Fed's monetary-cycle lags, a possible adjustment to more-supportive euro-US economic surprises and the US debt-ceiling deal are likely to help the view. Cyclical uncertainty in China is an unwelcome negative consideration, but it's arguably partly priced in. Click the exhibit to hear the podcast.

Corporate fixed income looks attractive compared with equities, Abrdn’s Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income says. Mondillo joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how private debt markets can offer opportunities and less volatility than some public credit areas. He also reviews Abrdn’s preferred sectors given its outlook for a recession beginning in early 2024, and the effects political policy and the Federal Reserve may have on fixed-income investing.

The banking crisis on both sides of the Atlantic led to significant repricing and revaluation in credit markets globally. But the rally following government and regulatory actions has recovered much of the lost ground. In the 10th episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, and Noel Hebert, Chief US Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss the aftermath of banking crisis and the rally, performance of banking bonds including AT1s and CDS indexes and the outlook for credit markets on both sides of the Atlantic including fundamentals, defaults, central bank actions, yield-curve impacts and return forecasts.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, Chief Asia FX and rates strategist, reflect on China's recovery story and on how some recent underwhelming monthly indicators reports may affect prospects into 2H as well as the currency market. Our analysts see the recent China economic news flow as a readjustment to more realistic growth expectations as opposed to evidence of a bleak outlook, with the recovery story intact for now. This implies that while the yuan is exposed near-term -- and that's not ideal for euro bulls either -- a more supportive narrative should return in 2H.

Questions have arisen around the growth of zero-days to expiry options, which now make up more than 40% of the overall volume of SPX options traded, and how this boom may be impacting the stock market. This edition of the All Options Considered podcast focuses on zero days to expiry options, or 0DTEs, and addresses the diversity of the investor base and what type of strategies are being traded. BI’s Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Arianne Adams, Senior Vice President, Head of Derivatives and Global Client Services at Cboe Global Markets.

Geopolitical risk is accelerating across Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, yet the region continues to outperform as end-of-cycle dynamics take hold. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence’s EMEA FX & Interest Rate Strategist Sergei Voloboev joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his outlook on local currency and debt markets in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Voloboev also shares his views on Turkey’s general elections, Israel’s proposed judicial overhaul and South Africa’s energy crisis.

Lisa Hornby, Schroder Investment Management’s Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income, says mortgages and shorter-term Treasury securities are more attractive than corporates given the firm’s outlook for the economy. Hornby joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this episode of the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hornby discusses why she thinks corporate credit may be challenged in some cases, yet says that broadly the risks are name-specific, rather than being confined to certain sectors. In the Interest Rate Intro segment, US Rates Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey how a debt-ceiling deal could affect the Treasury General Account, along with bank reserves and other Federal Reserve liabilities.

Despite positive year-to-date performance, navigating the heightened volatility in the rates market and declining new issue sales have been just some of the challenges investors have had to contend with this year. Though some have chosen to hide out in high-yield cash equivalents such as money-market products, opportunities exist if cloudy valuations can be navigated. Belle Haven Investments’ CEO and CIO Matt Dalton and Director of Research Dora Lee join Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on this Masters of the Muniverse podcast episode to share their muni-market perspective.

The market interpreting comments following the Bank of England’s 25-bp rate increase at the May policy meeting doesn’t square with the view of Bloomberg Intelligence European Interest Rate Strategist Huw Worthington. On this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Worthington suggests that the UK’s rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, while the European Central Bank could raise somewhat further. He notes that quantitative tightening via asset runoff by the ECB is just beginning at full force. Recent credit-rating actions on France might have implications for reviews of Italy and could affect markets. BI US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey also speaks with Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics Anna Wong about recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy actions last week. She discusses her view of the economy and inflation — highlighting the risk that inflation doesn’t fall aggressively — and the Fed remaining on hold for longer than the market is pricing.

Market downswings and rallies and concern about the next crisis have been major preoccupations over the past two years. A significant credit-market innovation helping to address this was introduced in this period and it's coming to the forefront now -- credit index futures. In the ninth episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist and Davide Masi, Fixed Income ETD Product Design at Eurex, discuss the need for credit index futures, the features of the Investment Grade (LXY) and High Yield (AHW) futures contracts along with their underlying benchmarks, their merits for hedging and risk-taking and their potential in terms of trading costs and volume.

“I worry less about liquidity risk because we’re generally assuming there isn’t liquidity there. I worry more about recovery risk. If something goes wrong in a small-cap stack…a lot of the advisory, workout and bankruptcy costs are much more onerous in a smaller-cap stack,” Corbin Capital’s Chief Investment Officer Craig Bergstrom says on this month’s State of Distressed edition of the FICC Focus Podcast. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss how the credit markets are locked in to their seasonal trends, and if continued, may tumble this summer. Then, they have an in-depth feature interview with Bergstrom on the current credit opportunity set, private credit and evaluating credit funds (7:39). Bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku joins the podcast for a roundtable discussion of distressed topics, including Bed Bath & Beyond, National CineMedia, Johnson & Johnson’s second foray in Chapter 11 and Exela Technologies (1:06:20).

ING’s Antoine Bouvet, head of European rates strategy and James Smith, developed market economist, join Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this episode of the Macro Matters editions of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the economy and rate markets of the Eurozone and the UK. Bouvet and Smith give their outlook for inflation, central bank policy and government bond markets.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, discusses her still-positive sterling outlook and revisits the UK's near-term cyclical dynamics and longer-term structural considerations with Dan Hanson, senior UK economist at Bloomberg Economics. The pair acknowledge the better-than-expected backdrop that's helped sterling year to date and discuss the risks to the UK's economic outlook, with implications for monetary policy and the pound. Hanson also explains the main longer-term challenges facing the UK economy, in particular regarding productivity and fiscal considerations. Beyond unexpected economic resilience thus far this year, there are other reasons supporting a more upbeat pound outlook, including improving post-Brexit UK-EU relations.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matthew Tym, Head of Equity Derivatives Trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. Discussion includes the volatility reset in G10 FX and equity market.

Municipal performance through the first four months of 2023 is a semi-welcome respite from the tough 2022 that many asset managers faced. The tax-exempt market is still contending with the same challenges that somewhat define the sector such as supply and demand imbalances and municipal valuations that seem overly rich until they unwind in the other direction. Though sole exempt investors are strapped in and along for the ride, those who live in the crossover world can maneuver more adeptly around “relative value.” Wesly Pate, a senior portfolio manager at Income Research & Management joins Bloomberg Intelligence Strategist Eric Kazatsky on this Masters of the Muniverse podcast episode to explain how a true cross-over investor is looking at munis’ potential opportunities.

European high yield had its first default but the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control after a positive first quarter for returns. Will 2Q sustain the 1Q gains and when do we see a default wave, if any? Please join Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence as he discussed the results of the 2Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies. We discussed our 2Q23 survey publication covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative value opinions by geography, rating and sectors in detail.

Deteriorating US economic fundamentals are fueling late-cycle serendipity in emerging market currencies, yet any declarations alluding to a demise in the dollar smile will likely prove exaggerated. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Jonny Goulden, managing director and head of EM sovereign strategy at JPMorgan joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to share his views on EM foreign exchange resilience, the glide path for short-term interest rates and spillover from US financial sector stress to EM credit spreads.

Bank debt may be an attractive asset class, NewEdge Wealth’s portfolio manager and head of fixed income Ben Emons tells Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist and host Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Emons discusses his views on future central-bank policy action in the US, Europe and emerging markets. He also reviews how the yield curve could react, highlighting that EM was early in tightening monetary policy. Jersey asks Emons about the challenges of investing in private credit and how loan markets are being altered by the transition to SOFR away from Libor. In the Interest Rate Intro segment, US Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey what could happen after the debt ceiling raised, and how the Treasury Department may refill government coffers.

The banking crisis on both sides of the Atlantic has led to significant repricing and revaluation of certain instruments in credit markets. But the rally following government and regulatory actions has recovered some of the lost ground. In our seventh episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist and Noel Hebert, Chief US Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss the banking crisis aftermath, performance of banking bonds including AT1s and CDS indexes and the outlook for credit markets on both sides of the Atlantic including fundamentals, central bank actions, yield curve impacts and return forecasts.

“There’s a growing trend to get in front of these names a little earlier...FOMO is alive and well in the creditor community...no one wants to find out a deal has been done around them. Particularly if it is an aggressive up-tier exchange,” Fidelity Investments’ Nathan Van Duzer says on this month’s State of Distressed edition of the FICC Focus Podcast. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss how SVB’s demise stirred up distressed supply in March. Then, they have an in-depth feature interview with Van Duzer on the workout playbook and how the restructuring business has changed over the past 20 years (5:20). Bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg News’ Eliza Ronalds-Hannon also join the podcast for a roundtable discussion of distressed topics, including Johnson & Johnson’s second try at settling talc claims in Chapter 11, 3M, Voyager Digital, FTX, Bed Bath & Beyond, AMC Entertainment, Cineworld and Diamond Sports (1:15:10).

Adding duration to fixed income portfolios will be attractive as the economy slows later this year, Amundi US’ head of fixed income Jonathan Duensing explains to Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist and host Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast. Duensing discusses how Amundi analyzes markets prior to investment decisions, noting his team’s bottom-up approach. He says mortgage-market extension has made evaluation of the sector easier. On the recent banking turmoil, Duensing suggests risks may be quelled thanks to quick policy action. Regulators did a good job ringfencing the regional banks over the the past month to avoid contagion to the broader financial system, Duensing says. In the Interest Rate Intro segment of the podcast, US Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the difference between Libor and secured overnight financing rate (SOFR). Jersey explains that SOFR isn’t a like-for-like replacement and suggests that the Bloomberg Short-Term Bank Yield (BSBY) might be better for assessing financial liquidity risk.

In our latest FX Moment Podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G10 FX strategist, talks about the Swiss economy, the SNB outlook and the Swiss franc prospects with Valerie Lemaigre, head of Investment Office and chief economist at Banque Cantonale de Geneve. In particular, Valerie and Audrey touch on how the Swiss growth and inflation outlook may impact the SNB's near-term monetary policy decisions and the consequences for the Swiss franc outlook. In a broadly weaker-dollar environment -- and despite the recent Credit Suisse predicament -- dollar-Swiss bears are back on track, with 0.90 a feasible level after all, while the risk to the recent 0.97-1.00 euro-Swiss range may become tilted to the upside in a stronger ECB-driven euro world.

As the error bands around the outlook widen and cycle turns bring lots of noise, directional views have become much more challenging. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Anna Raytcheva, CIO and Founder of Sonya Capital Management. Points covered include key themes from the volatility markets year-to-date, liquidity issues and FX volatility lagging the moves in the bond market.

The market pricing for 2023 Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is off base, Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong says on this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Wong joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss her view of the economic environment, the affect the banking turmoil may have going forward, and how the job market could develop. Wong suggests there might be a risk that after a pause, the Fed could be forced to increase interest rates more as inflation may remain sticky. In the Interest Rate Intro segment, US Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the path of banks’ net interest margins. Jersey highlights how shifts in capital rules and interest being paid on reserves as reasons for higher NIMs, even as the yield curve has inverted. Yet, distributional affects could be striking and leave room for fear of more banking issues.

Interest rate volatility remains a risk, but it’s still possible for the Fed to achieve a “softish” landing, with positive implications for the broader EM complex. In this episode of the Emerging Market Lens & Look-Through podcast, Kevin Daly, investment director at Abrdn Investments joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to share his views on emerging and frontier markets as the outlook for global growth deteriorates. 

The inflation vs. recession debate and how that will drive Fed pause vs. pivot dynamics is casting a shadow over credit markets. Key questions include whether the tightening of lending standards will drive up defaults or whether resilient fundamentals will prevent this. In our sixth episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Robert McAdie, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy at BNP Paribas, discuss the banking crisis, macro headwinds due to central bank tightening and its impact on risk-free and risk assets, including credit. They address yield-curve inversion and its correction, and its impact on the credit curve. The podcast also highlights quantitative tightening by the ECB and BOE and what can cause the markets to spook.

There’s been a sharp drop in rates across the curve, but that’s come at the expense of two bank failures and the introduction of a new depositary back-stop facility from the federal government, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. In this Masters of the Muniverse podcast episode, Vanguard’s head of municipal investment Paul Malloy joins BI strategist Eric Kazatsky to discuss all things macro and micro in the world of munis.

The supply of mortgage-backed securities remains very tight as refinancings have dried up again, Bloomberg Intelligence Mortgage Strategist Erica Adelberg says on the FICC Focus Podcast.  In this Macro Matters edition, Adelberg joins Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss recent housing and mortgage data, remarking on how exceptionally low application volume shows persistent stress on the market. Slow prepayments have caused light gross issuance, even with the Federal Reserve reducing its mortgage holdings. Adelberg says she thinks the Fed won’t consider selling mortgages directly as this could disrupt market function.  In the Interest Rate Intro segment, BI Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the generally inverted yield curve. Jersey notes that the inversion is the market’s expectation of where policy rates will be in the future. He states that the market thinks the yield curve will be inverted for the next two years, but much less so than it is currently.

We have potentially seen the first European high yield index default (bond rated D but not yet out of the index) in nearly two years, while the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds continues to fall given a long rally. Where is the risk in the high yield index and how big a default wave do we see this time? Please join Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence as he discusses the default outlook and trends in a Q&A format with Zachary Swabe, Portfolio Manager for High Yield, UBS Asset Management. We discuss the risk profile of the index by rating and sector, the proportion of CCC and CC-D credits, their evolution and relative valuations, and the impact on supply and returns in detail. We also address the macroeconomic outlook affecting high yield in the near and long term.

Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss how March may buck 2023's credit rally. Then, they have an in-depth feature interview with Victor Khosla, Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Strategic Value Partners on maintaining an investment culture while experiencing significant growth and his views on the current opportunity set (6:38). Finally, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg News' Eliza Ronalds-Hannon join them for a roundtable discussion of distressed topics, including J&J's and 3M's forays in Chapter 11, Revlon, Bed Bath & Beyond, FTX, and Cineworld (1:11:52).

FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, reflects on how the G10 FX narrative has evolved over the past couple of months and how this has shaped dollar sentiment back to all bullish from all bearish. Identifying how the narrative evolves from here is the next key challenge when it comes to assessing the US dollar's likely near-term fortune, and data watching may become highly relevant again in the next few weeks in that respect. Bloomberg Intelligence's FX team expects a negative dollar story to return in the course of 2023, but it can't be a linear view and the US macro and yield trajectory must adjust back to more benign levels first.

Interest rates could remain higher than the previous few cycles, with an upward sloping yield curve by the end of 2024, Gregory Staples, DWS Investment Management’s head of fixed income in North America, says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast.  In this Macro Matters edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Staples, who talks about his role at DWS and the variety of strategies he helps to manage. Among other topics, Staples discusses the differences in managing fixed income investments for insurance companies and mutual funds, his short- and longer-term view for markets, and what sectors may be at risk given DWS’ expectation for a midyear economic slowdown.  In the Interest Rate Intro segment, BI Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the average time it took the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates historically after reaching the peak. As a second question, Hoffman inquires about what factors tend to influence TIPS real yields. Listeners can hear more about this topic, which was covered in our Oct. 27 FICC Focus Podcast.

Fundamentally, Chinese equities stand out from global peers as the nation’s profit recession appears to be ending just as the rest of the world decelerates. In this month’s Emerging Market Lens & Look-Through edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors, who shares his views on investor positioning and market valuations in a world of slower growth and declining profitability.

The scenario of an extreme market impact from zero days to expiration options may be overstated and Commodity Trading Advisors' positive beta to equity may be a near-term headwind for SPX. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dean Curnutt, the CEO of Macro Risk Advisors. Points covered include key themes from the volatility markets year-to-date, 0DTE options, CTAs and VIX optionality.

Investment grade had a sustained good run in the past four months with spreads compressing all the way combined with bumper supply in the new year. How long will it sustain and are we due a correction if spreads are indeed rich? Please join Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence as he discusses the investment grade market with Heema Patel, Credit Strategy Associate at Bloomberg Intelligence. We discuss the place of high grade relative to rates as well as high yield, this year's record supply, valuations, upcoming ECB QT and its impact on high grade, along with high grade ratings and fundamentals in detail.

In this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by Adam Stern, the co-head of research at Breckinridge Capital Advisors. Breckinridge is a $42 billion asset manager and has long been considered one of the industry's firsts in muni ESG. Stern gives his take on the current state of Muniland, and if ESG investors are losing confidence in the designation and standards. muni ESG

The European high yield default rate remains at zero, and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds continues to fall given a long rally. How long will it sustain and when do we see a default wave, if any? Please join Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence as he discussed the results of the 1Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies. We discussed our 1Q23 survey publication covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default view, supply forecast, relative by geography, rating and sectors in detail. We also addressed the macroeconomic outlook affecting high yield in the near and long term.

In our latest FX Moment Podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist, talks currency prospects with Mark Andersen, Global Head of Asset Allocation at UBS Wealth Management. In particular, Mark and Audrey discuss the US dollar outlook following the remarkably strong US January employment report and to what extent this data is a game changer, or not, for the currency prospects for the rest of the year.

Short maturity government bond yields in Europe and the US may move somewhat high in the near term, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  In this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by his European counterpart Huw Worthington to discuss the February meetings of the US, UK and European central banks and the corresponding rate markets. Jersey notes his view that the market still doesn’t think the Federal Reserve can remain on hold, even though Chairman Jerome Powell explicitly said the Fed wouldn’t cut. Worthington thinks short-term German yields are about 0.5% too low, but that the markets are broadly in a range near term.  In the Interest Rate Intro segment, BI Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey why he thinks the market doesn’t believe in the Fed’s resolve. To contact the reporter on this story:

"It takes a long time to slow things down, especially when you’ve just pumped $2.5 trillion of monetary stimulus into the economy," Paul Goldschmid, partner & co-portfolio manager at King Street Capital, says about why this credit cycle may take longer to play out vs. those seen in the past 20-30 years. In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss how credit is hard to keep down in January as well as what’s next, followed by an in-depth feature interview with Goldschmid about distressed markets today and King Street’s investment process (6:15). Negisa Balluku joins the podcast to talk about Johnson & Johnson’s litigation loss in the Third Circuit, Party City and Genesis (1:03:07).

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu discusses the key themes from the volatility markets year-to-date, reflects on the low volatility regime and the outlook ahead.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Sergey Goncharov, Emerging Market Portfolio Manager at Vontobel. Goncharov shares his outlook for EM credit, as primary markets are open for business and corporate default rates remain low amid rising risk of recession. Central bank policy rates are well above pre-pandemic levels, and we see potential to receive in EM local debt markets as monetary tightening subsides.

On this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by Stanford University Professor and "Prophet of Remote Work," Nick Bloom. We discuss how remote work has a history much deeper than the pandemic and what the future may look like for the workplace, cities and public transit.

Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss distressed debt’s awful 2022 performance and what’s next. Then, Philip and BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku have an in-depth feature interview with Robert J. Stark, Chair of Brown Rudnick’s Bankruptcy & Corporate Restructuring group on corporate restructuring strategies and dynamics from all angles (8:00). Finally, Eliza Ronalds-Hannon join them for a roundtable discussion on names in the news - FTX, Voyager, Cineworld, Revlon, Bed Bath & Beyond, Party City, and Endo. (1:43:32). Listeners are also invited to join Bloomberg Intelligence Analysts Negisa Balluku and Holly Froum on Jan. 27 at 10:00 AM as they revisit the intersection of mass torts and bankruptcy in light of the evolving legal framework. https://bloomberg.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_gw4NrtsRTn-GBen_qfxBzg With key rulings on the horizon, large corporate defendants and lawyers alike are keeping an eye on 3M and Johnson & Johnson’s attempts to short-circuit mass tort litigation via Chapter 11.

CLOs are driving loan supply and in our second Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Paul Mehta, Head of Leveraged Loans at Aberdeen, reflected on how the leveraged loan market fared last year and the outlook for loans in 2023. We discussed our leveraged loan outlook publication covering loan pricing, returns, supply and relative value vs. high yield bonds as well as loan growth vs. the bond market in detail. We also addressed the outlook for CLO issuance and arbitrage for 2023.

Developed market central banks continue to fight inflation, but are at different points in tightening monetary policy. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England may be nearing the end of hiking regimes, while the European Central Bank may be somewhat slower to end tightening, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Interest Rate Strategists. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Huw Worthington, BI's European Interest Rate Strategist. Worthington reviews his views on how much further the ECB and BoE may increase rates and the affect that may have on government bond yields. He also discusses the different ways central bank balance sheet runoff may increase net issuance of debt - which creates risk for some countries. Italy in particular is a worry for the London based Worthington, with the ECB potentially needing to intervene if spreads widen. The possibility of the Bank of Japan eliminating yield curve control is also discussed. In a new segment of the podcast, “Interest Rate Intro,” US Interest Rate Associate Strategist Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the interaction of central bank Treasury purchases and market pricing.

In our inaugural Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Credit Strategist and Heema Patel, Credit Strategy Associate, reflected on the scope and impact on credit markets of Quantitative Tightening by the ECB and BOE in 2023. Our positive outlook for credit returns in Europe is in place but the central banks have a key role in deciding if such a view will materialise or not. This podcast aims to give an idea of the size and monthly pace of such quantitative tightening by the ECB and BOE and what can cause the markets to spook.

Quantitative modeling is an ever growing component of financial analysis, with most investors using some form of it within their investment processes. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Vera Tian and Alex Montiel, Bloomberg Data Scientists working with the BI FICC research team. Tian discusses how she developed the BI Rates model for two-year inflation swaps and the work she’s doing on equity-derivative markets. Her work allows investors to determine how much the market is long or short gamma, giving a clue to potential market moves. Montiel describes the process for building the BI Rates Federal Reserve sentiment model and iterations thereof. He and Jersey note that data availability are important. Montiel also previews a fair-value model of the Treasury yield curve. In a new segment of the podcast, “Interest Rate Intro,” US Interest Rate Associate Strategist Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the repurchase agreement market — what is it, how does it work and why is it important?

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, Chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu and EMEA EM FX and Rates Strategist Sergei Voloboev reflect on the outlook for global currencies as we start 2023 and more specifically, on the extent to which the late 4Q 2022 dollar sell-off affects their 2023 currency outlooks, if at all. They also contemplate some relevant FX views and themes outside the dollar box for this year. Our analysts' 2023 dollar bearish narrative is intact, but this can't be a linear view and a temporary risk-off return - that could could be triggered by a wide range of drivers including a shift back to more hawkish Fed expectations, earnings disappointment and/or geopolitical jitters, China macro concerns - could revive the US dollar in 1Q.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu discusses the key themes from the volatility markets in 2022 and the outlook ahead.

On this month's Masters of the Muniverse Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by three local men who have differing takes on the municipal landscape for 2023 and in some cases hope that their calls for the year ahead are not dashed by unforeseen forces, once again. In no particular order they are joined by Peter Degroot Head of Municipal Research and Strategy at JP Morgan, Vikram Rai Head of Municipal Strategy at Citi and Mikhail Foux Head of Municipal Research at Barclays.

The market will eventually believe that the Federal Reserve's "Put" is further out of the money meaning the central bank may keep the federal funds rate at the peak for longer than the market is pricing, says BI Chief US Rate Strategist Ira Jersey. In this Macro Matter's edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Jersey is joined by Erica Adelberg, BI Mortgage Strategist. Jersey first discusses the December Federal Reserve meeting, his market outlook, and his view that the market will eventually believe in the Fed's resolve to bring inflation down via keeping interest rates higher for longer. Adelberg then discusses the micro foundations of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market, from underwriting to settlement. She describes the To Be Announced (TBA) market, how it fits into the financial landscape, and gives thoughts to the affect of "specified pools" of mortgages being included in the Bloomberg Structured Products Index.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Christian Lawrence, Head of Cross-Asset Strategy at Rabobank. Lawrence reflects on valuations amid the ongoing position squeeze, and shares his year-ahead outlook for emerging market rates and FX. Latin America stands out as the region is rife with risk premia that is tightly correlated to thematic macroeconomic variables.

“End of the day, there was a 45-cent recovery to unsecured creditors of Lehman. Do you think that’s going to happen here [with FTX]?...It’s apples and oranges. Because Lehman had a real asset base,” Mark J. Shapiro, Shearman & Sterling Partner and Chairman of the Financial Restructuring & Insolvency group, says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast. FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss distressed debt’s poor performance year-to-date. BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku has an in-depth feature interview with Shapiro on FTX’s sharp fall, having witnessed Lehman’s collapse as its Head of Restructuring in 2008 (8:18). Hebert, Brendel and Balluku review their latest observations of crypto, Endo International, 3M, Diamond Sports Group, Talen Energy and Cineworld (27:49). Bloomberg Intelligence will host a webinar on Cineworld’s Bankruptcy & Wider Industry Implications on Dec. 16 at 10:30 am ET. Click here to register: https://bloomberg.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_1pvGba9SRRqKQewVpB0v1w

Treasury yields may fall further by the end of 2023, leading to positive returns for the Bloomberg Aggregate Index overall, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief Credit Strategist Noel Hebert and BI Chief Mortgage Strategist Erica Adelberg to discuss their outlook for the Bloomberg Aggregate Index. Jersey notes that his view that Treasury yields could decline further by the end of next year is based on a slowing of economic activity, but with the Federal Reserve loath to ease interest rates too soon thereby causing more yield-curve inversion in 1H, followed by bull steepening (less inversion) in 2H. Adelberg sees the possibility for positive excess returns in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). She notes a lack of supply and wider spreads could bring in buyers of MBS, and that the risk of a convexity-related mortgage-refinancing wage is unlikely. Hebert says that corporate issuance may slow in 2023 and that a slower economic environment could mean modestly negative excess returns for investment-grade corporate debt. To contact the editor responsible for this story

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G10 FX strategist, along with chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu, reflect on next year's Global FX Outlook and assert that evolving FX drivers mean that conditions for a weaker US dollar are in place as we contemplate 2023. There are risks to the view and it's not a linear outlook, but looming inflation and rate peaks, a shift of focus from inflation to growth and a return in risk appetite mean that the case for holding dollars is weakening considerably.

On this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Amanda Albright are joined by the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Boards; President and CEO, Mark Kim. This edition comes at a time when municipal fixed income is feeling pressure from evolutionary forces. In fact, one of the best analogies we can give, is that munis are the John Dutton of fixed income Yellow Stone ranch, and the asset class is hell bent on resisting any sort of change or threats. However, if we take a step back and look across the landscape of investing, we could all agree that more change and transparency is never a bad thing.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, BE's Senior UK Economist. They discuss the volatility in UK bonds and the outlook for the economy.

“We are certainly not talking about six or seven percent [federal funds target rate, but]... modestly above 5%,” Goldman Sachs Chief Interest Rate Strategist Praveen Korapaty says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast. In this Macro Matter’s edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Korapaty to discuss his team’s outlook for the Federal Reserve policy action and Treasury yields for 2023. Korapaty discusses his view that 10-year yields may climb above the recent highs and his view that interest rate cuts won’t come early. Jersey and Korapaty also discuss the transition from Libor to the secured overnight financing rate.

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Kaushik Rudra, Managing Director & Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Standard Chartered Bank. Rudra shares his outlook for emerging market fixed income, as falling US treasury yields and a weaker dollar fuel the technical rally in risk assets. China remains in focus following recent steps by Beijing to alleviate pressure on the domestic economy, and property market in particular.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G10 FX strategist, along with chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu, reflect on the recent euro revival and on how a sustainable euro-dollar recovery could unfold in the months and quarters to come.   

“Powell did a masterful job in neutralizing the market rally from [after the Federal Reserve] put out its statement. I think Powell did what he needed to in order to ensure they could slow the pace of rate hikes, while moving the terminal rate higher,” Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast. In this Macro Matter’s edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Wong to discuss the aftermath of the November Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Wong notes her view that the market is pricing for her current expectation of rate hikes. Jersey and Wong then discuss how long the Fed may keep the federal funds rate at its peak, how the future economic situation may develop, and what the Fed’s reaction function could be. Wong then produces an impromptu Fun Fed Fact segment explaining how the “dual mandate” developed in the late 1970s.

With distressed supply settling back following a test of June’s highs, Bloomberg Intelligence expects it may consolidate a bit between $100-$150 billion as seasonal trends turn supportive in December, and believes this distressed supply rise will continue, however, more likely in drawn out and steady fashion rather than quick and volatile. FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.  In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss the leisurely pace of this distressed cycle and when it may pick up. Bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku has an in-depth feature interview with Melissa B. Jacoby, Professor of Law at UNC School of Law (7:50) and Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins the panel to share thoughts on distressed credits in the cinema and crypto spaces, as well as Bed, Bath, & Beyond, Revlon and Incora (42:40).

Hybrids have significantly underperformed in 2022 and now trade wider than their high yield brethren, a trend that could extend into 2023. Private credit continues to grow assets and influence, yet spreads trail far behind their similar named “parent” companies. Bloomberg Intelligence’s global analysis also suggests changes in discount rates could be a big benefit for pension liabilities. This month’s podcast highlights the credit implications for BT, Telefonica, Boeing, Blackstone, KKR and other business-development companies. In this Credit Chat edition, European TMT analyst Aidan Cheslin, US Financials analyst David Havens and US Industrials analyst Matthew Geudtner join Robert Schiffman to discuss declining hybrid valuations, the growth of the private credit industry and the impact of rising rates on pension underfunding.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Professor Gregory Besharov at the University of Oxford. They discuss the volatility in UK bonds, crypto and the housing market.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Rohit Goel, Director of Macro Research at Breakout Capital. Goel shares his outlook for EM currencies, as persistent dollar strength fuels the call for coordinated FX intervention. China remains the elephant in the room, and Goel shares his views following this month's Communist Party Congress.

“There is significant interest rate risk in TIPS in ETFs and Mutual Funds because they can’t necessarily get enough leverage to do a break-even trade,” Winshore Capital Partners Portfolio Manager Robert Tzucker tells Bloomberg Intelligence. In this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Tzucker to discuss Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and other inflation linked instruments. Tzucker discusses how TIPS work, market liquidity and that he believes that TIPS are the market expectation of inflation, but the market sometimes gets it wrong. In the Fun Fed Fact segment, BI Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews the October Bank of Canada and European Central Bank meetings that were relatively dovish to expectations. Jersey then answers the question of how this week’s central bank decisions might affect near-term Federal Reserve announcements.

"Who would have thought LDI would be in the popular press in my whole career?" says David Eichhorn, CEO of NISA Investment Advisors on this edition of the FICC Focus Podcast. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Eichhorn joins BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss Liability Driven Investments (LDI), particularly US Defined Benefit pension plan, which he helps manage. Eichhorn discusses how LDI investments differ from other types of plans, how his firm manages risk, and his view for the future of the pension industry. During a discussion about if US pensions could contribute to a market move similar to what occurred in the UK in the recent past, Eichhorn notes that US plans take much less interest risk and manager derivative collateral much differently than their cousins across the pond. The show's Fun Fed Fact segment takes a bit of a turn when BI Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos and Jersey discuss the Treasury Refunding dealer questions about potential Treasury buybacks and TIPS issuance.

Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income at Abrdn Plc, talks about his outlook for state and local debt after a rough 2022.

Global banks are much better positioned from a capital and liquidity perspective than they were heading into the 2008 financial crisis, yet pockets of concern are beginning to percolate. Bloomberg Intelligence’s analysis suggests solid credit quality is supported by considerable liquidity, but potential funding needs for U.S. Bancorp, PNC Financial, Truist and Mitsubishi UFJ may create bond-pricing anomalies, while Credit Suisse’s ultimate fate is a major question mark. In this Credit Chat edition, Senior US, European and Asia Bank Analysts Arnold Kakuda, Jeroen Julius and Pri de Silva join Robert Schiffman, to share their views on bank balance-sheet flexibility, rising funding needs and increased volatility of bond and credit-default swap prices.

In our latest FX Moment Podcast, the host, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman, along with Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the 4Q FX Outlook, with the US dollar bullish drivers arguably priced in and the currency looking stretched and overvalued, but a catalyst for a turnaround has yet to be identified. Our FX Strategists also touch on the theme of FX interventions, which may become more frequent in some cases, but when unilateral in nature, aren't likely to sustainably reverse the trend.

Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss September’s rise in distressed supply amid a dearth of risk appetite. Included is an in-depth feature interview with Todd Lemkin, Chief Investment Officer of Canyon Partners (6:15). BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon join the panel to share thoughts on Endo International, Celsius Network, Voyager Digital, Cineworld, Bed, Bath & Beyond, JUUL, and Envision Healthcare (1:07:15).

Amanda Albright and Eric Kazatsky are joined by Henry Cisneros, Chairman of American Triple I Partners, to talk about US infrastructure and why Cisneros sees a 'golden' era ahead.

In this special UK edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by BE's Chief European Economist, Jamie Rush. They discuss the market turmoil and economic outlook in the aftermath of the UK mini-budget. 

In our sixth FX Moment Podcast, the host, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman, along with Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the topic of currency crisis and whether this applies to the current FX market environment. Our FX Strategists touch on the increasingly debated sterling crisis theme and look back into past currency crisis situations for more insights on the current context.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Mr. Caesar Maasry, Managing Director & Head of EM Cross-Asset Research at Goldman Sachs. Maasry shares his outlook for emerging market currencies, as relentless dollar strength is fueling comparisons to the early 1980s when coordinated central bank intervention was required to stem the pain.

Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright are joined by Senior Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas to discuss the rise of municipal ETFs, current pricing wars and predictions for the Philadelphia Eagles 2022-23 season.

“The drivers of secular stagnation were... Technology, demographics, and globalization... They may have changed a little bit, but not that much,” Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of the Lafayette College Endowment tells Bloomberg Intelligence, noting his view that secular stagnation will return. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Memani joins BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the differences between being a sell side analyst, mutual fund manager and managing an endowment. Jersey asks about the process of analysis and asset-class selection within an endowment and alpha generation. Memani also gives his outlook for the economy longer term, including his view that secular stagnation, an environment of low inflation and low real growth, will return as the Federal Reserve finishes fighting inflation. BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos joins for the podcast’s Fun Fed Facts segment. He talks about the Fed’s updated “dot plot” and Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that sales of securities isn’t imminent.

In this third edition of All Options Considered, Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker is joined by BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu and Partner at Dominice, Pierre de Saab, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape.

It’s been a surprisingly calm summer for credit, but a rocky fall may be on tap, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss what credit looked like in the summer and what could potentially happen in the fall. They are joined by Trey Parker, Sycamore Tree Capital Partners Co-founder & Chief Investment Officer, for an in-depth feature interview. (6:42) BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon also share thoughts on Revlon, 3M, Celsius Network, Cineworld and Bed, Bath, and Beyond. (42:50)

Rising rates and recessionary fears are growing, yet credit across continents and sectors may be well positioned for additional supply and demand headwinds. Analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence suggests strong credit profiles, access to low cost capital and considerable financial flexibility are supportive of reduced volatility for Walmart, Home Depot, Maersk, CMA CGM, DBS Group and Oversea-Chinese Banking, even as global recessionary risks rise.

High mortgage rates are have a negative effect on Agency mortgage-back securities performance relative to Treasuries, and the Fed's quantitative tightening may make it worse due to changes in sector allocations in the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Chief Agency Mortgage Strategist Erica Adelberg and BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos who discuss the mortgage market, Canadian interest rates, and how central bank balance sheet runoff could affect the relative returns of several asset classes.

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dr. Win Thin, Senior Vice President & Global Head of Market Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman. Thin shares his outlook for emerging market currencies, as the stronger greenback is suppressing non-dollar asset class returns, causing the market value of benchmark-eligible debt to decline by nearly 6% in the last month alone.

Political partisanship in Congress will remain wide, which could cause government shutdowns and another debt-ceiling crisis in late 2023, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Government Analyst Nathan Dean as the two discuss the upcoming midterm congressional elections, the federal budget continuing resolution and how political partisanship could affect markets. Dean also talks about scenarios if President Joe Biden doesn’t run for reelection. The US Rates Strategy team recently highlighted increased political partisanship in the Senate.  In today’s Fun Fed Fact segment, BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos reviews the previous Jackson Hole address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Jersey and Manolatos discuss what Powell might highlight in his Aug. 26 speech.

In our fifth FX Moment edition, the host, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman discusses China's current cyclical conundrum, the PBOC outlook and currency implications with Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu. While the weakening Chinese growth dynamics leave the yuan exposed near-term, it does not alter Stephen's more constructive long-term outlook for the Chinese currency.

A 2H recovery may not be the rising tide that lifts all boats as recession, inflation and remaining Covid-19-lockdown risks disproportionately have a negative impact across pockets of health care providers, Macau gaming operations and European consumer and beverage debt issuers. Our global Bloomberg Intelligence team’s analysis suggests competitive pressures may further push Weight Watchers spreads wider, while inflation affects margins for Carrefour and Tesco, and Macau’s casino recovery remains slow.  In this Credit Chat edition, Louise Parker, BI European consumer analyst, Cecilia Chan, BI Asia gaming and tech analyst and Mike Holland, BI health care analyst join Robert Schiffman, BI senior credit analyst, to share their views on rising food and beverage prices, China’s gaming challenges and why historically defensive health care credits are showing signs of distress.

The financial services industry has been challenged for years with firms having to navigate the global pandemic and remote work, all while dealing with legacy battles such as fee compression, customer retention and talent recruitment. To that last point, starting a new role during the pandemic is a difficult task for some. Starting a new role as CEO is even more challenging. On this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Amanda Albright are joined by the new Chief Executive Officer of Mesirow, Natalie Brown.

If the market prices out Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2023, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey thinks that could be enough for the Treasury yield curve to invert more than it has in 40 years. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, host Jersey is joined by Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist. Manolatos reviews some details of the consumer price report, including how sticker, lower volatility sectors continue to contribute 3% (more than half) to core CPI - and more worrying is that medium volatility sector prices continue to accelerate. Jersey discusses his views for the Treasury market, including a core view that the yield curve could invert even more. In today’s Fun Fed Fact segment, Manolotos highlights that the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policy making group, has all seats filled for the first time since July 2013. Jersey notes that given the disparate ideologies on the FOMC, a member of the board of governors may dissent in coming quarters.

Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discusses with BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel the first up month for distressed in 2022. Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins the call to present the interview she and Brendel conducted with Bill Derrough, Moelis & Company's Global Co-Head of the Capital Structure Advisory (6:07). BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku joins the panel to share her thoughts on Revlon as well as 3M's and Johnson & Johnson's recent mass tort Chapter 11 cases. (1:07:14). Wrapping up the call is a discussion on the abrupt collision between Crypto and Chapter 11.

If Bloomberg Economics is right at the Federal Reserve hikes to 5%, the two-year Treasury yield should be near 4% and the Treasury yield curve would be more inverted, notes Bloomberg Intelligence. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics and Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist. Wong discusses why she thinks the Federal Reserve wasn’t as dovish as the market thought, and why additional interest rate hikes may be in the cards even after a soft 2Q GDP print. She details the BE version of the Taylor Rule and her belief that it’s superior to more traditional models. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos quips that the Fed’s statement is now 268 words, but could get somewhat shorter over time. Jersey jests that the statement length and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet have been broadly correlated. The strategists briefly discuss the statement as a communications tool in different regimes.

In this second edition of All Options Considered, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker and Co-Head of Derivatives Strategy at Susquehanna International Group, Chris Murphy, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape of the bond market to S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

In this Credit Chat edition, Joel Levington, Global Head of Credit Research, Daniel Fan, Senior China Real Estate Analyst and Pri De Silva, Senior Asia Financial Institutions Analyst join Robert Schiffman to share their views on downgrade recession risk for US industrials, the impact of potential “boycotts” on China property value and limited financial risk for the Chinese banking system. A slowdown in growth is unlikely to affect China’s banking system, avoiding a 2008-like crisis, yet the country’s real estate sector may become further depressed. In contrast, despite over $150 billion of industrial bonds at risk of downgrade, recession fears in the US could be overblown. Following GE’s decision to separate in multiple stand-alone entities, 3M is following suit, with potentially Danaher not far behind, scenarios that may be beneficial for all parts of the capital structure.

In this edition of Masters of the Muniverse Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright are joined by New York State Comptroller, Thomas Dinapoli. We cover such topics as the recovery of the State and New York City from the worst of the pandemic, tackling pension returns in a volatile environment, challenges ahead for State finances and the debate over best baseball teams.

In our fourth FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the topic of FX valuation, with particular interest on whether the U.S. Dollar may be overvalued. Our FX Strategists look into their updated BEER, fair value model and assess whether the dollar may be overvalued vs its G10 peers.

The yield curves in the US and Canadian dollar could invert more than any cycle since the early 1980s and the German government curve might not invert at all, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Strategists. In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Huw Worthington, BI Chief European Rates Strategist and Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist to talk about current inflation, the central bank and the differences and similarities between recent and coming interest rate moves. Angelo kicks off the podcast reviewing Canada’s 1% interest rate increase on July 13 and his view for additional hikes. Huw discusses why the ECB has been somewhat behind other central banks in raising policy rates. As the show was being recorded, the euro-dollar exchange rate moved through parity to 0.9966 generating a conversation about currencies to end the show

In this Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower and Bloomberg ESG Index head Chris Hackel. Sassower and Jersey discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Don't Sleep on 60-40 as Fixed Income Return Forecasts Rebound. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Sassower notes that $9 trillion of market cap has been destroyed during the past year's selloff. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns. Hackel discusses shifts in client interest for ESG index product, and notes some of the trends in that asset growth for ESG product, particularly after the explosion of equity ESG funds.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Cate Ambrose, Chief Executive Officer of the Global Private Capital Association. Ambrose shares her outlook for EM private equity, with a focus on the sectors, countries and opportunities capturing interest from institutional investors across the globe.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel, and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss the ongoing surge in distressed debt and how long it may last; Marathon Asset Management's Bruce Richards shares his distressed market views with Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon (6:30); Phil, Noel, and Eliza are then joined by BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku, who details material risks to Citibank's potential bankruptcy claims against Revlon and TPC Group noteholders' priority spat.

SPECIAL EPISODE | Risk of a U.S. recession is growing more likely, with the potential to impact valuations across EM asset classes. As Fed tightening, China lock-downs and the war in Ukraine collide, who is best positioned and why? How has the risk of contagion evolved across EM and how do you expect policy makers to respond? Join industry leaders from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Brown Brothers Harriman as we explore the key trends that are reshaping the global investment landscape.

SPECIAL EPISODE | After nearly four decades of dormant inflation, EM economies must now contend with rising price pressures and the possibility that they may take longer to dissipate than initially anticipated. What is the impact of higher interest rates on market structure and liquidity? Is a more persistent inflationary impulse causing creditors to adjust their investment timelines? Join industry experts from Pimco, Lazard, Cerberus, Itau and Swiss Re as we explore the key trends that are reshaping the global investment landscape.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassoweris joined by Claudio Irigoyen, Head of Latin America fixed income & FX strategy at Bank of America. Irigoyen shares his outlook for the region in the wake of higher inflation, slower growth and the broader shift toward populism.

 In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Claudio Irigoyen, Head of Latin America fixed income & FX strategy at Bank of America. Irigoyen shares his outlook for the region in the wake of higher inflation, slower growth and the broader shift toward populism.

Hosts, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright, discuss new developments at the intersection of the sleepy municipal bond market and blockchain technologies. This week we are joined by Tammie Arnold and Stephen Winterstein from Alpha Ledger.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Noel Hebert, BI Chief US Credit Strategist, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist. Jersey shares his thoughts on the June FOMC meeting, which he calls a “dovish 75-basis point hike” as Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that interest rate increases of that magnitude wouldn’t be common, and said he expects the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate to over 4%. Hebert then discusses the fundamentals, technicals and valuation of the investment grade and high yield corporate bond markets. He notes a shift in investor preference toward floating rate loans and the challenges some companies may have as rate increases bump up interest expense. Hebert also reviews some sectors he’s concerned with, and others which may outperform as the Fed tightens monetary policy. In this episode’s Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos reviews the Fed’s summary of economic projections and the dot plot, noting how, if the high dot for year-end is realized, there would need to be at least one additional 75-bp move before year-end. LIVE Event Coming UpFed's Powell Remarks at Inaugural Conference on Int'l Role of US Dollar06/17 13:35 Set Reminder | LIVE » Related tickers:

In this first edition of All Options Considered, Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker is joined by BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu and Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Artemis Capital Advisers, Christopher Cole, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape.

In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by BI credit analysts Mike Campellone and David Havens to discuss the increasing risks in the retail and financial services sectors on inventory and supply chain issues, inflation, rising rates and the drop in crypto valuations.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI's bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss why we believe a new distressed debt surge is starting, developments and ramifications of J&J's Talc subsidiary's strategic Chapter 11 filing, reports of Revlon debt restructuring talks, Talen Energy and TPC Group.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Ben Emons, Managing Director of Global Macro Strategy at Medley Global Advisors, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist.Emons discusses his views on the commodity, equity and fixed income markets, including how energy prices affect some equity sector spending patterns and how input costs are impacting earnings. Additional downside in stocks is possible, he notes. Jersey and Emons then discuss Federal Reserve monetary policy and the possible terminal rate for the federal funds target rate. In this episode's Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos' reviews the Fed's profit remittances to the Treasury Department and how they could develop over time. Jersey notes that the lack of remittances may mean little to Treasury supply as budget deficits continue to improve.

In our Second FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on recent developments in the U.S. dollar and explore the theme of currency peg, with a focus on the HKD. Our FX Strategists discuss the recent dollar price action, with a focus on what triggered the pull-back and on whether it can be a sustained pull-back.

In this Credit Chat edition, BI Senior Credit Analyst Robert Schiffman is joined by Van Hesser, Senior Managing Director and Chief Strategist at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, to discuss the transition from stimulus-fueled super growth back to normal and its impact on high grade and high yield credit spread direction and volatility.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Erica Adelberg, BI Mortgage Strategist, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist. Adelberg discusses how the agency mortgage-backed securities differs in structure from other fixed income asset classes and reviews how the entire market structure has shifted amid climbing rates. She notes the Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff and the possibility of sales of MBS and why that may be more challenging than some think. Jersey shares his view that sales in 2022 are unlikely. The call ends with the Fun Fed Facts segment and Manolatos' views on the length of the Fed's recent statements.

Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright discuss the worst start on record for municipal bonds and explore the key differences of active vs passive management for tax-exempts. They are joined by David Hammer Head of Municipal Bond Portfolio Management at PIMCO.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss recent developments. Topics include why we expect a new distressed debt surge may be upon us, views from the recent Milken conference, GWG Holdings' difficult bankruptcy, Revlon's turnaround and Talen's liquidity struggles.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist. Wong and Jersey discuss the Federal Reserve's May 4th meeting which Chairman Jerome Powell squashed the possibility of a 75 basis point interest rate increase in June, which left the markets thinking the meeting was hawkish. Jersey notes he did not hear it that way, while Wong notes she expects two more 50 basis point increases, followed by a string of 25 basis point hikes. Wong goes over the hawkish and dovish scenarios for the the policy rate, and discuss the risk of recession in 2024 after the Fed is finished raising rates. The BI US Rates meeting reaction can be found here; while the BE reaction is available here.

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In our first FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on recent developments in the euro and the yuan. Our FX Strategists discuss the recent euro price action, with a focus on the lack of revival after the re-election of pro-European French President Emmanuel Macron, as the focus remains on overwhelmingly bearish international drivers. Stephen touches on the recent yuan underperformance and implications for our longer-term views on the Chinese currency.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Associate Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey previews his views for the May 4th FOMC meeting and discusses his view for future 50bps interest rate increases and the possible affect on the Treasury yield curve. The team's written preview can be found Fed Terminal-Rate Calibration Makes Pace of 2H Moves Uncertain. He also mentions the Treasury Department's refunding announcement expected a few hours prior to the Federal Reserve statement release. He expects coupon security auction sizes to stabilize after having been cut the past several quarters. Manolatos then discusses his view for the Bank of Canada and inflation expectations. Jersey also mentions the risk that inflation may remain above the Fed's target and what might occur if the central bank remains quite hawkish. Manolatos then discuss how quickly the Fed's Treasury Bill portfolio will runoff given current asset runoff plans.

In this Credit Chat edition, BI Senior Credit Analyst Robert Schiffman is joined by Bloomberg News' Olivia Raimonde, David Brooke and Rachel Butt to discuss what's driving this year's sharp drop in high yield debt issuance, the transition of investor demand toward leverage loans and private credit, and the rise in distressed credits.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by the Founder and CIO of Emso Asset Management, Mark Franklin, and the co-deputy CIO, Jens Nystedt. The guests share their outlook for emerging markets in the wake of Fed tapering, Chinese deleveraging and the war in Ukraine.

Hosts, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright, discuss algorithmic trading and increase in electronic tool usage in the municipal industry, with guests Marty Mannion and Matt Schrager from TD Securities.

In this inaugural Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower. The two discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Global Creditors Tempted to Lean In After $5 Trillion in Losses. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Jersey and Sassower also discuss one of the risk higher yields will post to returns, but Jersey notes that the path matters, suggesting higher yields may be a near-term risk, while longer term an economic slowdown is more likely. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss recent developments in the distressed debt markets. Topics include where we are in the distressed debt credit cycle, Incora's new financing and debt exchange, Toys R Us litigation, AMC's foray into gold mining and Exela Technologies' array of capital structure maneuvers.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu. The trio discuss their report “Mega FX Trends: Regionalization vs. De-Dollarization,” in which they note the dollar is likely to remain the dominant reserve currency, but regional trade blocks may form. Childe-Freeman highlights the challenges for the euro to overtake to dollar, such as lack of fiscal and banking union within Europe. Chiu suggests that Chinese financial markets need to mature further for the yuan to greatly increase its use in international transactions, but notes the yuan could reach FX reserve levels similar to the pound sterling or Japanese yen. Mega FX Trends: Regionalization vs. De-Dollarization: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/R8IMK9T0AFBB

In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by BI credit analysts Jeroen Julius, Jody Lurie, Spencer Cutter and Mike Holland to discuss the risks, and potential rewards, a broad swath of issuers across banking, energy, healthcare and leisure as inflation rises, war rages in Ukraine and pandemic headwinds/tailwinds persist.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Blaise Antin, Managing Director & Head of Sovereign Research at TCW Group. Antin shares his outlook for emerging-markets following Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. From rising geopolitical risk to global monetary policy tightening, emerging-market debt performance should remain volatile.

Months long spikes in rate volatility has adversely impacted the municipal market in 2022. One of the positives to come of this sea change is that credit may start to be re-priced back into the municipal market. That could impact high yield moreso than investment grade credits. These are among the issues discussed by BI Senior U.S. Municipal Strategist Eric Kazatsky and guests John V. Miller from Nuveen and Bloomberg's Amanda Albright.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Wong and Jersey discuss their views on what's next for the Federal Reserve after it raised interest rates by 25 bps. Wong notes she was surprised by the hawkishness of the Fed's dot plot, while Jersey was surprised by Chairman Jerome Powell's mention that details of asset runoff would appear in the minutes of the meeting. In the Fun Fed Fact segment, Manolatos reviews the developments of the dot plot and suggests that two members likely moved down their long term neutral federal funds rate expectation.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert contemplate how long the lull in distressed may last as analogs in the past may offer an answer. The two also discuss how the Russia-Ukraine war may impact on distressed supply, Revlon, and Diamond Sports' recent exchange offer.

 In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence EM Credit Strategist, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Sassower and Jersey discuss the implications of recent political events, including the UN vote after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sassower analyzes the various political actions from China, India, and even Cuba. He also discusses possible market drivers in the near term for currencies, commodities and credit spreads. Jersey notes that dollar funding doesn't appear to be driving Libor/OIS wider, but rather an expected slowdown in bank profitability. Manolatos then offers his view on the Bank of Canada's interest rate hike, and Jersey his take on the Federal Reserve and U.S. rates markets.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dr. Fabio Natalucci, IMF Deputy Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, and Rohit Goel, IMF Financial Sector Expert. Natalucci discusses the risks to financial stability as restrictive monetary policy overlaps with record debt levels. Goel delves into the world of EM sustainable finance as flows into ESG-related investments have surged in recent quarters.

In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by credit analysts David Havens and Himanshu Bakshi and BI's senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, to discuss the rising impact of Bitcoin on corporate credit, including Coinbase and Block.

In this latest episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright discuss the changing landscape of muni buyers with our guest is Sylvia Yeh, Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. We also look at how the rocket like growth in separately managed accounts is changing the way buyers look at tax-frees.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Lauren Goodwin, Investments Economist and Strategist at New York Life, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Goodwin discusses her views on the inflation after the January CPI print surprised to the upside, and notes a risk that wages could continue to climb, making inflation more persistent. She explains which sectors she thinks will outperform and suggests the market may be pricing for too many Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year - with four being her base case. Manolatos reviews how the market has re-priced for the path of Fed interest rate increases and notes that the terminal rate is approaching 2% on the back of the strong inflation print.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss why volatility and declines in Treasuries and equity doesn't faze distressed debt supply. The two also review how Sinclair Broadcast Group stakeholders may perceive Diamond Sports Group's proposed transaction, which would bring in $600 million of new financing and shuffle Diamond's debt stack a bit.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI's head of Fixed Income Market Structure Research Sean Savage and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey shares his takeaways from the Jan. 26 FOMC meeting and post meeting press-conference, as well as the market reaction. Savage discusses how the central bank continues emphasizing its policy rate target as its main tool, and also the composition of the FOMC's balance sheet and how the T-bill portfolio may evolve. Manolatos says how the MBS unwind may be a bit different than last time and weighs in on the Bank of Canada's decision.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Freeman begins discuss the reasons the dollar may have turned recently and why she's still somewhat bullish, but believes the euro could also surprise as she thinks economic growth may beat expectations. She then talks about central bank outlook may affect her view on FX, plus how currency pairs may react to a risk off event as central banks tighten monetary policy. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos reviews how the Federal Reserve started portfolio runoff in the prior tightening cycle, and how much is available for runoff if the Fed decides to take such action later this year.

In this Credit Chat edition, Joel Levington, BI's Global Head of Credit Research and Stephen Flynn, BI Sr. Telecom, Cable & Media analyst join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the trajectory of high grade and high yield fundamentals, rising star potential, funding expectations and outlooks for Ferrari, Ford, Tesla, Netflix, T-Mobile and Dish.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dr. Win Thin, Senior Vice President & Global Head of Market Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman. Thin shares his 2022 outlook for emerging markets, as the asset class faces challenges from Fed tapering, Chinese deleveraging to Russian foreign policy, and Brazilian election risk.

In this Masters of the Muniverse edition, host BI Senior US Municipal Strategist, Eric Kazatsky is joined by Amanda Albright, Bloomberg News, Ksenia Koban, Payden and Rygel, Monica Reid, Kestrel Verifiers and Chris Hartshorn, ICE. All are here to discuss the municipal market and how investors and issuers are embracing sustainable investing.

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief European Interest Rate Strategist Huw Worthington and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey discusses the end state of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and how he believes it will begin to reduce its assets beginning in May or July, soon after interest rates are first raised. Worthington says it may be a long way off from the start to asset runoff for the ECB, as the central bank said it won't start reduction until it hikes, and that is unlikely before mid-2023. And Manolatos shares his outlook for the Bank of Canada and notes that government bond liquidity may be at risk as assets run off quickly.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss why higher rate fears and omicron may not derail the credit rally through 1Q. The two also review Intelsat's confirmation, a recent Hertz legal decision, Nordic Aviation Capital's Chapter 11 filing, and some highs and lows of bankruptcy auction experiences.

In this EM Lens & Look-Through edition, host and BI Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Christian Lawrence, Managing Director and Senior Cross-Asset Strategist at Rabobank. Lawrence shares his 2022 outlook for currency and debt valuations across EM. And the two assess the pace of central bank policy tightening on bond yields, credit spreads and local currencies across the globe.

In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief US Economist Anna Wong and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey begins the show discussing the Federal Reserve's December meeting with Wong, with a focus on the press conference. Wong notes her view that the Federal Reserve may hike as early as March, with both she and Jersey agreeing an initial hike by June 2022 is very likely. Jersey notes that faster taper announcement hasn't roiled markets because he believes the January-March 2021 Treasury sell off was a "taperless tantrum." Wong also discusses her risk case scenarios for future Fed action. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos discusses the nuances of the Feds continued purchases and the affect on bank reserves and the Fed's reverse repurchase agreement facility. He notes that the RRP facility may fall in the near term as T-bills are issued reducing bank reserves as the Treasury General Account increases. Jersey and Manolatos discuss when, why, and how an early start to Fed balance sheet reduction may occur.

In this Credit Chat edition, Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie and credit reporter Lisa Lee join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the credit market's biggest risks and rewards heading into 2022 with uncertainty, inflation and spreads increasing.

In this Masters of the Muniverse edition, host BI Senior US Municipal Strategist, Eric Kazatsky is joined by Peter DeGroot, Head of Municipal Bond Research and Strategies from JP Morgan, Vikram Rai, Head of Municipal Strategy at Citi, and Mikhail Foux head of Municipal Strategy and Research at Barclays. All are here to recap 2021 municipal bond successes and look ahead to the new year. 

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert share their views on how the omicron variant may impact high yield and distressed. The two also review some memorable 2021 bankruptcy themes (Hertz, Intelsat, Washington Prime Group), and provide thoughts on the direction of distressed credits Revlon and Sinclair subsidiary Diamond Sports Group.

In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief European Rate Strategist Huw Worthington and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey begins the show with his outlook on U.S. rate markets and the Federal Reserve in 2022, and suggests a faster taper at the December Federal Reserve meeting doesn't mean faster or fewer hikes, as the market is pricing. Worthington discusses his view on the European Central Bank and the Bank of England -- including how the BOE might conduct balance sheet reduction via bond sales should the bank hike interest rates to 1%. Manolatos provides his view on the Bank of Canada, which he thinks will be relatively hawkish, and in the Fun Fed Facts segment notes that if the Fed does double the pace of taper it will leave open possibility for interest rate liftoff at the March 2022 meeting.

Alejandro Cuadrado, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), joins Damian Sassower of Bloomberg Intelligence to share his outlook for currency and debt valuations across Latin America. The two discuss the outlook for portfolio flows, potential for future monetary tightening and post-election positioning in Argentina and Chile.

In this Masters of the Muniverse edition, host BI Senior US Municipal Strategist, Eric Kazatsky is joined by Jim Colby, Senior Municipal Strategist of Van Eck, to discuss high yield municipals heading into 2022, and navigating a black swan event for an ETF.

In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, to discuss inflation dynamics and the Federal Reserve's reaction function. Shepherdson doesn't believe the Fed will hike prior to 3Q22, even with the next few months' inflation running very hot. In a second segment, Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews his views on Canadian interest rates and suggests that the Bank of Canada may hike prior to the Fed, and rates generally should climb in 2022.

In this Credit Chat edition, our global team of energy and utility analysts (Spencer Cutter, Jaimin Patel and Paul Vickars) join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the sectors biggest risks and rewards as inflationary pressure and demand are rising.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel join Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss how distressed debt may be stuck in a trough through May. Also discussed: The latest in Johnson & Johnson's subsidiary's (LTL Management LLC) bankruptcy filing as well as GTT Communications' pre-packaged filing.

This Muniland edition, hosted by Municipal Strategist Eric Kazatsky, focuses on muni ETF industry.Neil Azous, PM for Rareview Tax Advantaged Income ETF (RTAI). discusses muni ETF industry, Closed End Funds and how being a new player in the industry can give edge.

This Macro Matters edition, hosted by BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey, focuses on central banks' outlooks. Dan Hanson of Bloomberg Economics discusses the Bank of England and his view that higher inflation now may push the bank to hike too quickly, causing inflation to undershoot after a few years. Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews the Bank of Canada meeting and shares his skepticism of the early hikes the market is pricing. And host Jersey gives his views of the Federal Reserve taper and suggests that the Fed may wait longer than the market is anticipating to hike, which may lead to further yield curve steepening. Original recording date: October 21, 2021

In this Credit Chat edition, our global team of consumer analysts including Jody Lurie, senior travel and leisure analyst, Mary Ross Gilbert, senior U.S. consumer products analyst, and Louise Parker, European consumer staples analyst, join Robert Schiffman to share their outlook for consumer credits, with systemic risk and inflationary pressures showing signs of rising.

In this EM Lens & Look-Through edition, Alessio de Longis, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Tactical Asset Allocation for Invesco, joins Damian Sassower of Bloomberg Intelligence to discuss the smart-beta revolution, as factor-based investment expands from equities to fixed income and foreign exchange. De Longis shares his views on factor-based investment performance across different beta regimes, and highlights the growing importance of emerging market risk premia. The two focus on the importance of active management, portfolio diversification, market liquidity and tail risk when taking a factor-based approach to investment.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman, who discusses why she thinks the dollar has more to rally - regardless of circumstances, how elections might affect the euro, and why Sterling remains at risk. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Bloomberg Intelligence Associate Analyst Angelo Manolatos gives an update on how much the Federal Reserve's securities holds have grown as it prepares to reduce purchases next month.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI Bankruptcy Litigation Analyst Negisa Balluku and Distressed Credit Analyst Philip Brendel join Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss the momentum in high yield markets, what may stop it and when. Also discussed: The latest for Washington Prime Group, Aeromexico, Latam Airlines, Intelsat and in Hertz’s Make-Whole battle.

In this EM Lens & Look-Through edition, host and BI Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Jonny Goulden, managing director of global EM research at JP Morgan. Goulden shares his outlook for emerging market debt, as the asset class can add incremental returns to global fixed income portfolios in an environment characterized by historically low developed market bond yields. The two discuss the relative allure of EM carry, the re-rating in China credit and the risks associated with central bank tapering.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong who discusses her path to join Bloomberg, what she's looking at for the future of the economy, and why she thinks a 2022 Federal Reserve interest rate hike isn't out of the question. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Bloomberg Intelligence Associate Analyst Angelo Manolatos reviews the distribution of the FOMC's "dot plot" that now shows half the committee thinks an interest rate increase could come in 2022. He also mentions how market pricing differs from the newly minted 2024 dots.

In this Credit Chat edition, our global team of BI analysts including Jeroen Julius (Europe), Arnold Kakuda (U.S.) and Himanshu Bakshi (Canada, Australia) join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the outlook for bank and financial credits, with systematic risk and rates showing signs of rising.