There are some things we need to know about who is actually buying stocks. Yields on the rise - estimate that they could be moving up to what level? Big tech earnings on tap - how will markets react? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm-Up - Gold on a tear - not just gen pop buying - Elephants buying up stocks - The BIG reveal - Musk giving away $ - E-Coli Alert Markets - Yields cranking higher - steepening means.... - A bit of profit taking ahead of tech earnings (next week) - More Tax abatements - Markets look a little tired.... Treasury Rates - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. - This is a far cry from the lows before the latest rate cut about a month ago. - Elections and debt loads are weighing as are the latest strong economic numbers Yield Curve This too... - The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday. - The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion. - Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023. - Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. (23% of receipts are used for debt service) - The CBO expects deficits to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in 2034. The Big Reveal - The central bank of the Czech Republic added to positions in some of the biggest tech names among U.S.-traded stocks, as well as increasing a bet on Warren Buffett. - Czech National Bank Bought Up Palantir, Nvidia, Apple, and Berkshire Stock - Here is my take.... (Central Banks reporting to other options as they are strapped and backs against the wall. They know they have enough firepower to pump stocks to try to dig themselves out of a death spiral of debt) - Is it legal - yes. Is it good for markets, yes. Is it dangerous? Yes and no - if you can print money - who cares? More... Let's not forget about China rolling out $112 Billion scheme to bolster stocks - China's central bank kicked off two funding schemes on Friday that will initially pump as much as 800 billion yuan ($112.38 billion) into the stock market through newly-created monetary policy tools. - The central bank also launched a relending program, initially worth 300 billion yuan, that would allow financial institutions to borrow from the PBOC to fund share purchases by listed companies or their major shareholders. - 1.75% is the rate to borrow and buy stocks Revealed - Just a quick look.... - The Swiss National Bank has 20% of its assets in equities. - The Bank of Japan buys Japanese ETFs as part of its domestic money market operations, but it doesn’t buy foreign stocks. - The Bank of Finland does invest in equities - Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, buys stocks. - Bank of Finland buys stocks - Last quarter - Norway's gigantic sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of 835 billion Norwegian kroner ($76.3 billion) - - - To date, the fund has put money in more than 8,760 companies in 71 countries around the world. NO TAXES! - Donald Trump said he’d consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes - Why not just have no taxes for everyone? --- UPDATE:  Former President Donald Trump's tax r...

Bulls remain in charge Data not important - down the road all will be fine Seasonality - Race to the End CPI and PPI - conflicting PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com Warm-Up - Bulls remain in charge - Data not important - down the road all will be fine - Seasonality - Race to the End - Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year. - Musk pulls a fast one Markets - CPI and PPI - conflicting - Bank earnings - so far so good - Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead - US Chips and Exports - roughed up market Economics This Week - Import and Export Prices - Retail Sales - Philly Fed - Industrial Production - Housing Starts - Building Permits Of Interest: NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon. - So inflation is a bit more sticky than Recession - No Says Goldman - Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15% Seasonality - The Race until the end - Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost... - End of year from here favors the bulls - Could have a few complications with the election right in  between but electoral promises will be  helpful for markets Markets Worried? - Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis - NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East - Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them - The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security - ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector Fed Powers - Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it ELON - Pulling a fast one - Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg - Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere) - Isn't that fraud? Example of promises hitting the wires - Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters - Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America - Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon) Consumer Confidence - Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident - Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month JPM Earnings - JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall. - Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase. - Official:  JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates.

Does anyone care about the data? Does the Data Matta? Port Strike ENDED - for now Hurricane Milton - Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida... Employment Report Update PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Reminder: Intel CTP is open! Warm-Up - Does anyone care about the data?Does the Data Matta? - Port Strike ENDED - for now - Hurricane Milton - Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida... - Employment Report Markets -Headwinds, Wars, Higher Rates, Higher Fuel Costs - Who Cares? - Hurricane Impact - Oil on the move - Yields moving higher - Robotaxi Day! Want to Bet? - A federal appeals court on Wednesday refused to block a lower-court ruling allowing Americans to bet on the outcome of the 2024 congressional elections. - This will be BIG - and a difficult thing to handicap - Plenty of ways to eventually get into the betting craze 0 from sportsbooks to investors with binary style investments. - Thoughts? Hurricane Milton - Nasty Storm hitting the Gulf Area - Generac stock flying - up 8% Monday and 50% YTD - Stock is down from $500 to $170 (from peak in 2021) - Crude oil rallying - combination of Hurricane Milton and Middle East conflict -- Follow-Up: Crude Dropping as HurcMilt not going to disrupt Gulf Oil All Over - Strike OVER! - Tentative deal and back to work....after first strike since 1977 - Under the tentative new agreement, workers will earn a 61.5% raise over six years. That means the highest paid workers would make $63 per hour in the final year of the contract — up from $39. - NO AUTOMATION - The union argues that technological advances could threaten the existence and value of union jobs, a concern that has persisted to varying degrees since the Industrial Revolution first introduced machines into the manufacturing space. Budget Deficit - No One Cares - The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. - The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023. - Revenues increased by an estimated $479 billion (or 11 percent). - Revenues in all major categories, but notably individual income taxes, were greater than they were in fiscal year 2023. - Outlays rose by an estimated $617 billion (or 10 percent). - The largest increase in outlays was for education ($308 billion). - Net outlays for interest on the public debt rose by $240 billion to total $950 billion. Pfizer - Starboard Value has amassed a roughly $1 billion stake in drugmaker Pfizer, according to people familiar with the matter. - Starboard believes that Pfizer’s current leadership under CEO Albert Bourla has stepped away from its historically disciplined cost structure and investment in novel drugs, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential information freely. - The stock is trading about 30% lower than it did in 2019. Seriously? - Two Democratic lawmakers are demanding that some of the biggest food and beverage companies stop engaging in “shrinkflation” — the practice of reducing product sizes while charging prices that are the same or higher. - In pointed letters, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Rep. Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania accused General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo of engaging in a “pattern of profiteering” through shrinkflation and by “dodging taxes.” Employment Report - Nonfarm payrolls increase by 254,000 in September - Unemployment rate falls to 4.1% from 4.2% - Average hourly earnings rise 0.4%; up 4.0% year-on-year - Average workweek slips to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours - Yields Rocking higher - above 4% now..

Bulls and Bears - (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear - will be interesting divergence) End of the Month - End of The Quarter Seasonality features the Bulls Fed Limericks! NEW CTP ANNOUNCED! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm-Up - Bulls and Bears - (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear - will be interesting divergence) - Strike Update - could be an issue - Another Strike - different kind - Israel and Iran - VP Debate tonight Markets - End of the Month - End of The Quarter - Seasonality features the Bulls - Good quarter - setting up for more gains? - Question - Capital Gains?? - Inflation (PCE) Update --- Fed Limericks ....And another  AI generated CoverArt - what do you think? ANNOUNCING CTP for INTC Market Selling Off - Iran sending in missiles to Israel started a general concern - VIX popped over 20 for a minute - Markets down 1%++, but found reasons to try to come back mid day Inflation - Inflation moved closer to the Federal Reserve's target in August, easing the way for future interest rate cuts, the Commerce Department reported Friday. - The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%. - Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 0.1% in August and was up 2.7% from a year ago. Fed officials tend to focus more on core as better measure of long-run trends. The respective forecasts were for 0.2% and 2.7% on core. Euro Cars - Not Good --- Blaming China.... - Stellantis on Monday trimmed its 2024 annual guidance on the back of deteriorating "global industry dynamics" and bolstered competition from China - The French-Italian conglomerate, known for brands such as Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Maserati, warned of lower-than-expected sales "across most regions" in the second half of the year. - Stock down 8% on the news - UK-based Aston Martin Global Holdings PLC has signaled that it expects lower profits for FY24 due to supply chain disruptions and a decline in sales in China. According to its trading update, the company now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) to be slightly below FY23 levels. - In addition, it no longer expects to achieve positive free cash flow in H2 2024. Following the update, AML shares crashed by around 24% as of writing. - Stock down 43% YTD - What about RACE, Ford and others? China - WOW - Best Rally n Monday since... 1998? - Shenzen and Shanghai index up 8% on the back of: ---China's factory activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month in September as the world's second-largest economy struggles to revive its growth momentum. - China's industrial profits plunged by 17.8% in August from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. ------ That followed a 4.1% year-on-year increase in July, the fastest pace in five months. -------Industrial profits covers factories, mines and utilities in China. -- While the data was better than expected, anything that shows weakness in the economy will be met with expections that there will be more easing.... -- Note: FXI (Hang Seng, up 2% - Could be time for short on parabolic move??) Hang Seng Interesting Tape - Headline at 11:30am Monday : Israel tells US that it is planning a imminent ground operation in Lebanon, according to Washington Post - Oil is steady - Markets turn positive - VIX falls abit - No fear of further escalation? Asia - Getting weird - Japan's Nikkei falls over 4%,

Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though) Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast - Natural gas prices jump COVID Shot Stocks - "fun" while it lasted Confidence is waning..... CHINA! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm-Up - Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though) - Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast - Natural gas prices jump - COVID Stocks - "fun" while it lasted - Confidence is waning..... - CHINA! Bazooka Time! Markets - All-Time Highs - Same saying Goldilocks conditions - Seasonality favors the bulls starting next quarter - Uranium starting to move as people warming up to nuclear energy again - Trump Stock on the move Need to Pick a new CTP Exile - A leading economist in China has vanished following critical comments about President Xi Jinping‘s economic policies. - What Happened: Zhu Hengpeng, deputy director at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), was detained after allegedly criticizing Xi in a private WeChat group. Zhu’s remarks reportedly included veiled criticisms of Xi’s leadership and comments on China’s struggling economy, reported The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. - The investigation into Zhu coincides with the Chinese Communist Party’s intensified efforts to suppress negative commentary about the country’s economic health. Under Xi, dissent has been increasingly punished, with critics facing imprisonment or exile. - AH would be have cement shoes if this happened in the USA On The Other Hand - CHINA PROP IT UP - China said it will allow institutional investors to tap central bank financing for stock purchases and is weighing plans for a market stabilization fund, sparking the biggest rally since 2020 for the nation’s beaten-down equities. - The People’s Bank of China will set up a swap facility allowing securities firms, funds and insurance companies to tap liquidity from the central bank to purchase equities - The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore Chinese stocks, surged 4.3% to cap its best day since July 2020. In Hong Kong, a gauge of Chinese shares was up more than 5% intraday. - MCHI up 8%, FXI up 8.5%, YINN (3X) up 25% M&A FOLLOW UP - Buyout firms Vista Equity Partners and Blackstone are in advanced talks to acquire Smartsheet, in a deal that could value the collaboration-software maker at close to $8 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Monday. - NEWS: Collaboration software maker Smartsheet on Tuesday announced it would be acquired by Blackstone and Vista Equity Partners in an all-cash deal which valued the company at $8.4 billion. THE FED - Cuts rates by 0.50% -- Seems to have been looking to appease markets - Initial reaction was blah... Unwinding of positions put on right before the decision - Next day stocks soared - “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the Federal Reserve statement said. - Last time Fed cut rates was COVID days , time before that was Financial Crisis of 2008 - The federal funds rate is now a range between 4.75%-5% Meanwhile - Consumer confidence in September suffers largest decline since August 2021 - The key takeaway from the report is that consumers' views of the current labor market situation continued to soften and became more pessimistic about future labor market conditions -- a sentiment that could weigh on consumer spending activity. ---- The Present Situation Index dropped to 124.3 from an upwardly revised 134.6 (from 134.4) in August.

Best week in a long time - markets popping! Cats and Dogs - all anyone can talk about these days - DogCat Bounce anyone? More back to work directives .... Apple disappointing again. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - Best week in a long time - markets popping! - Cats and Dogs - all anyone can talk about these days - DogCat Bounce anyone? - More back to work directives .... - Apple disappointing again - All of a sudden - Now the Biden-Harris administration Market Update - BIG week of central bank rate decisions - Rotation - still a big item keeping markets in check - Rates LOW - bond traders overconfident? - Oil comes back after miserable 2 weeks - TrumpCoin? Central Banks - The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated two-day meeting, which gets underway Tuesday, is poised to take center stage. - Elsewhere, Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting on Wednesday. - The Bank of England, Norway’s Norges Bank and South Africa’s Reserve Bank will all follow on Thursday. - Bank of Japan will provide its rate decision Friday --- Markets getting a bit more volatile ahead of this Fed rate decision BACK TO WORK! - Amazon is instructing corporate staffers to spend five days a week in the office, CEO Andy Jassy wrote in a memo on Monday. - The decision marks a significant shift from Amazon’s earlier return-to-work stance, which required corporate workers to be in the office at least three days a week. Now, the company is giving employees until Jan. 2 to start adhering to the new policy. One Day Later - Oracle provide some really nice earnings and guidance that the market loved... (Discussed last week) - A day later: --- Oracle now sees at least $66 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, around $1.5 billion more than analysts had expected. ---- Capital spending also will increase. ------The company plans for over $104 billion in revenue in the 2029 fiscal year. - Odd that  this was the next day - Stock up 55% - 2nd best of tech companies just behind Nvdia - Larry is now 2d richest person in the world behind Elon Musk Economics - August Retail Sales 0.1% vs -0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 1.1% from 1.0% - August Retail Sales ex-auto 0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior unrevised at 0.4% - August Industrial Production 0.8% vs 0.1% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to -0.9% from -0.6% - August Capacity Utilization 78.0% vs 77.9% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 77.4% from 77.8% --- Generally economy is speeding up again and looks like signs that manufacturing may be picking up More Issues - This is a bad apple - The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a top banking regulator in the United States, said on Thursday it has issued an enforcement action against Wells Fargo due to deficiencies in its risk management practices. - There will be no penalties - but company is still in the penalty box due to past issues China Apple - Online retailers in China have slashed the prices of Apple’s new iPhone 16 series ahead of its official release, as consumers in the world’s largest smartphone market hold out for the release of the US company’s first on-device artificial intelligence (AI) software. - They are blaming this on the delay of any significant AI features Intel Gets $$$ - The Biden-Harris Administration announced today that Intel Corporation has been awarded up to $3 bln in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act for the Secure Enclave program. The program is designed to expand the trusted manufacturing of leading-edge semiconductors for the U.S. government.

August ends on the high side - (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August) Rate cut bets are in place Market very skittish - September not the best month on average VIX hits 25 last week PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - Another Rough Start to the month - Apple Event - market was - Last episode - ETF and Funds Education - lots of great comments on that! - DEBATE TIME - right in the middle of our show! Someone needs to look at our schedule Market Update - August ends on the high side - (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August) - Rate cut bets are in place - Market very skittish - September not the best month on average - VIX hits 25 last week - Yen Carry trade issue not fully resolved - YIELD CURVE UPDATE Big News - Yield curve normalizes for 2/10's - Yield curve is not normal - this is what happened  in 2001 and 2008 Apple Event - Apple introduces Apple Watch Series X with a new design. - Largest most advanced display ever with 30% more screen area. - The display is larger than the Apple Watch Ultra. - Display will be 40% brighter. - Watch will be 10% thinner than Apple Watch 9. - Background noise will be surprised on phone calls. - Smart Stack will add widgets whenever you need them. - Adding translate application. -Apple Watch can track menstrual cycles. - Apple Watch can alert users to sleep apnea. - Starts at $399. - A few incremental updates otherwise and talk of AI to come - one day someday More Apple - Europe's top court on Tuesday ruled against Apple in the tech giant's 10-year court battle over its tax affairs in Ireland. - The Commission in 2016 ordered Dublin to recover up to 13 billion euros ($14.4 billion) in back taxes from Apple, at the time saying that the tech company had received "illegal" tax benefits from Ireland over the course of two decades. - So is this final this time? - How is this possible anyway - Ireland granted tax benefits for the purpose of benefiting jobs etc.... Apple Competition - Huawei's tri-fold phone receives over 4 mln pre-orders ($2,800 per) - Have you seen this? - VERY COOL device Palantir -  Palantir Technologies hits best levels since early 2021 following inclusion in S&P 500 - +15% on the  news Dell - Dell also is added to the S&P 500 - Etsy and American Airlines out Tech - Oracle Earnings - Oracle beats on some metrics and has some great outlook - Missed on EPS - Partnering with Amazon - The company said Oracle Database is thriving, and the multi-cloud agreements it has with Microsoft, Google, and now AWS make it easier for its customers to run their Oracle Databases in the cloud. - Stock at ATH NVDA - WORST DAY EVER for a stock - Slide last week took at $300 BILLION on market value in one day. - New DOJ probe in anti-trust case - The agency is asking questions about whether Nvidia makes it harder to switch to other suppliers of AI chips. - Nvidia has over 80% of the market for data center AI chips, according to industry estimates. Best Buy - People are buying... - Raising full year guidance - Comparable sales declined 2.3% during the quarter, compared with a 6.2% decline a year earlier. --- It is all about  the expectations... Glasses - Again? - Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon told CNBC the chip designer is working with Samsung and Google to explore a mixed-reality set of glasses linked to a smartphone - Last year, Google, Samsung and Qualcomm struck a partnership to develop mixed-reality technology. - This is supposed to be a smaller version of what is out the...

A show dedicated to the many questions of our listeners. We focus on ETFs and Mutual Funds, contrasting and comparing the differences. Financial Literacy is not just one month a year! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Talking Financial Literacy We are going to discuss details of what an ETF is and the differences from those investment vehicles and mutual funds. ETFs are investment funds that trade on stock exchanges, holding a diversified portfolio. ETFs offer instant diversification by allowing investors to buy a small slice of a variety of assets. ETFs trade like stocks, with prices fluctuating throughout the trading day. Popular for their diversification, lower costs, trading flexibility, and tax efficiency. Types of ETFs include stock, bond, commodity, international, sector/thematic, and inverse/leveraged ETFs. Downsides include market risk, tracking errors, liquidity issues, and the complexity of specialized ETFs. Key differences with mutual funds include trading mechanisms, costs, management styles, and tax implications.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Closest to The Pin for - United Healthcare (UNH) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Path Change - Once the air clears, how will markets react? Cracking down on excessive "junk" fees Cracking down on Unfree Speech? Jackson Hole - big update about "The Path" PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up -Cracking down on excessive "junk" fees - Cracking down on Unfree Speech? - Jackson Hole - big update about "The Path" - Intel is nervous Market Update - Lower End Consumers Fueling Spend - Big news this week - NVDA earnings - Rotation ? Consumers are still spending (Discounters loving it!) - Taxing Unrealized Gains? Political rhetoric - Taxing Unrealized gains - questions coming in --- Realize this is for the ultra-rich and the potential to get this passed is not high - BUT - Harris campaign wants to see about higher taxes - which are needed, but not a good thing ----- How else are we going to pay back this mountain of debt? Jackson Hole - Time to Change the Path of Rates - Powell was clear and they are now pricing in a 100% probability of a 0.25% rate cut for September - 0.50% will probably scare some people - so 0.25% is plan - Odd ahead of election - but maybe Powell realizes he is behind the curve Target - Against the odds? - Target beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations on Wednesday. - Sales at the discounter grew as shoppers made more visits to Target’s stores and website and bought more discretionary items like clothing. - Yet, the retailer struck a cautious note, saying it expects comparable sales for the full year to be in the lower range of its guidance. - Target raised its profit guidance, however, saying it expects adjusted earnings per share to range from $9 to $9.70, up from the previous range of $8.60 and $9.60. - Investors loved it! Stock moved from $135 - $169 on the news (back to $158) ---- Walmart near ATH and Ross Stores stock at ATH SpaceX - Boeing - So embarrassing for Boeing... - Starliner is going to come back - Unmanned... - Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, will return to Earth on a SpaceX vehicle early next year Telegram - Telegram messaging app CEO Durov arrested in France - Pavel Durov, the Russian-born billionaire founder and owner of the Telegram messaging app, was arrested at Le Bourget airport outside Paris shortly after landing on a private jet late on Saturday and placed in custody. - Free speech under fire? Or is this more than just a Twitter alternative. - Supposedly 900M Daily Active users??? Junk Fees - FTC trying to crack down on "junk fees" - Last year, 15% of restaurant owners added surcharges or fees to checks because of higher costs, according to the National Restaurant Association - Inflation fee, credit card fee, health-care fee, house fee - Restaurants are fighting back as they want the fees to add to bottom line and increase profitability and benefit staff. - Makes the entire idea of going out to eat an expensive proposition. What is this? - Microsoft said Friday it will hold a conference in September for cybersecurity firms to discuss ways the industry can evolve following a faulty CrowdStrike software update that caused millions of Windows computers to crash in July. - Microsoft will meet with CrowdStrike and other security companies at its campus in Redmond, Washington, on Sept. 10 to discuss how to prevent similar issues in the future --- Wasn't this already something that was not supposed to happen? - The executive said participants at the Windows Endpoint Security Ecosystem Summit will explore the possibility of having applications rely more on a part of Windows called user mode instead of the more privileged kernel mode. - Software from CrowdStrike Check Point,

Jackson Hole ECO Confab (this week) Live Nation is in trouble Icahn get a slap on the wrist Gold - ripping - where to next? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - Jackson Hole ECO Confab (this week) - Live Nation is in trouble - Icahn get a slap on the wrist - Gold - ripping - where to next? - Price Controls - 3rd Rail? Market Update - Nearing all-time highs again - Buy the Dips! - Yields under 4% on 10-Year - Yen still in control - Back to Overbought again - still thinking not out of the woods - Lowe's and Home Depot Outlook - POOR (But stocks are up) Jackson Hole - Aristocrats line up to speak - Big doings as often a platform for Fed and other central bankers to make policy adjustments - Powell scheduled to speak at 10am Friday --- With all of the latest data and market push - what will he do?? - Before that - Wednesday we will see the July FOMC minutes GOLDDDDDDDD - Gold hit all-time high last Friday ($2,509.65) !!!!NOW $2,563!!!!! - WHY? Discussion ranges from Fed Reserve, Election, Middle East, India Buying.... - Gold has been a better GOLD then Bitcoin - just saying... Monopoly - Finally! - Ten Additional States Join Justice Department’s Suit Against Live Nation-Ticketmaster for Monopolizing Markets Across the Live Concert Industry - Today, the Attorneys General of Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah and Vermont joined a civil antitrust lawsuit filed by the Justice Department, 29 other states and the District of Columbia against Live Nation-Ticketmaster for monopolization and other unlawful conduct in violation of Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act. - Stock does not seem to care - or believe anything adverse will happen AMD buys ZT Systems - $4.9 Billion - What is ZT Systems? The company engages in full rack deployment -- a block filled with servers, storage, switches, etc. -- for hyperscale data centers. ZT also commands a data center infrastructure manufacturing business, for which AMD announced it would seek out a strategic partner to offload this part of the company. - Clearly the company does not have a CHIP or infrastructure  ready for a major AI play at this time. Carl Ichan - Hand Slap - Carl Icahn and his publicly traded company Icahn Enterprises settled with the SEC over allegedly failing to disclose billions worth in stock-backed borrowing. - Icahn and IELP will pay a combined $2 million in fines, without admitting or denying wrongdoing, over the failure to disclose as much as $5 billion in margin loans that were backed by Icahn’s stake in the company. - Icahn, a well-known activist investor, had been facing pressure from another activist short seller in 2023. (Hindenburg which is still short the shares) Circle K 11? - Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard (Circle K) has sounded out Japan's Seven & i (7-Eleven) about a potential takeover, the two companies said on Monday, making the 7-Eleven owner the largest-ever Japanese target of a foreign buyout. - While the value of the offer has not been disclosed, the bid is the latest example of the growing interest in Japanese companies by Western investors, who have been drawn by the country's push for better governance. - News of the deal sent shares of Seven & i surging by almost 23% in Tokyo Chicken and the Egg - Chicken prices are going up - Perdue Foods is recalling more than 167,000 pounds of frozen chicken nuggets and tenders after some customers reported finding metal wire embedded in the products. - According to Perdue and the U.S. Agriculture Department’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, the recall covers select lots of three product...

Cut taxes on SS and Tips? President decides rates? China - inflation ticking up YEN volatility - NOT OVER PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - Cut taxes on SS and Tips? - President decides rates? - China - inflation ticking up - YEN volatility - NOT OVER - Announcing the WINNER for the UNH CTP Market Update - CRISIS AVERTED - August doldrums - but big week of Eco Data - Market Punishing earnings misses - more than usual - Same old  = going back to the Mega-Cap trade while pulling other sectors down - PPI out - changing direction Crisis Averted - Monday (last) Yen plunge then pick up - Come on - Japan markets fell 12% then rallied 10%  - intervention anyone? --- Clearly there is an invisible hand at work here ---- Plus Japan officials waled back their "hawkish" comments ---- 17 years of ZERO or NEGATIVE rates, markets don't want to give that up --- Do you know why this is all happy pappy now? How did they resolve the 2 day crisis? (Hint - $$$$) - Japanese markets have recovered ALL of the losses since last Monday - ALL Volume/Vacations - August - Volumes are down across the board. Aside from a couple of days when markets moved lower - Will probably continue to see slow markets (unless some outside shock) through Labor Day - However  - big week of ECO data - - CPI, PPI, UMich, Import/Export prices, Retail Sales (no one has a clue what the trajectory is from here) Month to Date MTD IWN iShs Russell 2000 Value ETF -7.87% IWM iShs Russell 2000 ETF -7.10% IWO iShs Russell 2000 Grwth ETF -6.15% IWD iShs Russell 1000 Val ETF -2.45% IWB iShs Russell 1000 ETF -1.68% IWF iShs Russell 1000 Gwth ETF -1.00% Really? - Former President Donald Trump this week repeated his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors. - The Republican nominee called for "no tax for seniors on Social Security" during a "Fox & Friends" interview Wednesday - Of course Harris/Walz also want to cut taxes on SS now... ***** Some "experts" say that this will hurt the solvency of SS and Medicare even more - now expected to run out in 2035 --- Oh - let's eliminate taxes on TIPS ---- The Waiters & waitresses workforce and tipped in service industry are about 4 Million people (1% of population Where do we stand on this.. - Presidents having a direct say - or vote - on Fed decisions? Switcher-rooo - Chipotle Mexican Grill announces that Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO has accepted the role as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Starbucks (SBUX) and will be leaving the Company effective August 31, 2024 - -On the news, SBUX up 17% and CMG down 10% China - China's consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday. - Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago, versus 0.2% in June. - Is this good news or bad? PPI - July Core PPI 0.0% vs. 0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.3% from 0.4% -- Disinflation is speeding up - nearing DEFLATION concerns - Tomorrow - CPI Another one... - Home Depot on Tuesday topped quarterly expectations, but cautioned that sales will be weaker than expected in the back half of the year as high interest rates and consumer uncertainty dampen demand. - The home improvement retailer said it now expects full-year comparable sales to decline by 3% to 4% compared to the prior fiscal year. It had previously expected comparable sales, a metric that takes out the impact of store openings and closures and other one-time factors,

Japan stocks PLUNGE! Tech stocks in correction - nearing bear market. What does the crystal ball tell us? Where is the PPP? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - OMG - Did you see that? - Fear - blood in the streets - Looking for someone to blame for the selloff - Boeing news....Finally Market Update - RISK off - all risk assets (aside from bonds) down in August - Bitcoin - CRUSHED - as with other cryptos - so much for safe-haven - 13:1 Day Decliners to Advancers (that is pretty significant. - Records broken - Worst day in 50 years for one stock Where is the PPP? - Now we are hearing about an emergency cut - looking for a 0.75% cut (Jeremy Seigel) - Investors looking for a save - Plunge Protection Team!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Seems like Tuesday in Japan - PPP to the rescue - +10% Bitcoin and ETH - Seriously - takes it on the chin down 15% with global market sell-off - What happened to it being a safe-haven - all but discounted at this point.... Japan's first increase in decades - Actually, last increase was 2017 - so 17 YEARS OF LOW RATES - The Widowmaker trade is finally working - but for how long? - Japan's major stock market - YEN Up 11% since 7/11/2024 and  the Nikkei is down  23% (28% at low on Monday) since 7/11/2024 - Carry-Trade (borrow Yen at low rate and reinvest) BLOWING UP - WORST day for Japan's markets since Black Monday in 1987 --- The loss of 4,451.28 points on the index was also the largest in terms of points in its entire history. -=-=-=-= This is not the first time Japan's central bank has caused this type of situation. Their entire investing and monetary process is very dangerous. -=-=-=-=- - Japan's Nikkei had the best day since 2008 on Tuesday Repercussions - Stocks around the world got hammered - worrying about YEN unwind as well as the earnings and outlook from Tech - Kospi -8% down Monday - World stocks off by 3%+ - UGLY moves and lots of trading opportunities - $1 Trillion in market cap erased from Mega-Caps Monday (Mag7) AND - A sharp drop in U.S. stocks is provoking selling from volatility-sensitive funds, exacerbating a selloff - Volatility control funds - systematic investment strategies that typically buy equities when markets are calm and sell when they grow turbulent  have gorged on stocks as indexes soared to record highs in 2024 - More recently, they have begun selling, as worries over the economy and tech earnings rattle investors: volatility control funds have dumped about $83.6 billion of U.S. equity futures over the last two weeks VIX - SPIKES to 65 on Monday morning.... (Then comes down to about 36 on the close) - Historical spike like that  are  interesting signs that it may be end of route (or getting close) - - 80's for Pandemic and peak of Financial Crisis ---- Unbelievable move in 3 days that seems that most people were unprepared for Economic Issues - Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 in July, below the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. - The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021, triggering an economic rule on recessions. - Health care again led, adding 55,000 to payrolls. Other notable gainers included construction (25,000), government (17,000), and transportation and warehousing (14,000). - Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%. Google loses Anti-Trust - Google’s payments to make its search engine the default on smartphone web browsers violates US antitrust law, a federal judge ruled Monday,

New Study - Power and AI Apple releases new AI (first version) Bitcoin - Not Buying the Electoral Rhetoric Correction territory for many tech names PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - NEW CTP ANNOUNCED! - Jailtime? Short Seller targeted - The EXCITING Summer Olympics - Last vote - never again! Market Update - New Study - Power and AI - Apple releases new AI (first version) - Bitcoin - Not Buying the Electoral Rhetoric - Correction territory for many of the tech names.... - Microsoft Earnings... Crowdstrike Glitch - 2nd shoe is dropping - Lawsuits are on the way - hitting Crowdstrike and Microsoft - Several announced this week..... - CRWD still falling - Down 40% since before the "glitch"   Microsoft - Reports Q4 (Jun) earnings of $2.95 per share, $0.01 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.94; revenues rose 15.2% year/year to $64.73 bln vs the $64.38 bln FactSet Consensus. - Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of +29%, +30% constant currency vs +30-31% CC prior guidance. - Guides next quarter is below consensus - Stock getting hit - down 7% initially, but comes back a bit in after-hours AMD - Better than feared - stock up after hours nicely Intel - cutting 1000's of  jobs - they are not a contender at all Citron Boss - The activist short seller Andrew Left surrendered in Los Angeles on Monday to face federal criminal securities fraud charges, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office there said. (Like he was in jail until bail was paid!) - $10M Bail - Andrew Left - is accused of using his public platform, which included social media posts on X and appearances on CNBC, to make illegal profits of at least $16 million by manipulating stock market activity and trading in a way that was contrary to the positions he publicly purported to take. - Left is also being sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which in a civil complaint filed last week in LA federal court accused him and Citron of “engaging in a $20 million multi-year scheme to defraud followers by “publishing false and misleading statements regarding his supposed stock trading recommendations.” - “Left bragged to colleagues that some of these statements [he made] were especially effective at inducing retail investors to trade based on his recommendations and said that it was like taking ‘candy from a baby,’” the SEC alleges in that lawsuit. Big Boys - Tuesday Update - NVDA (-6.5%) extends to session lows, as AI group comes under pressure ahead of key earnings reports and AI capex guides... other AI movers of note include ARM -6%, VRT -6%, SMCI -5.5%, QCOM -4%, MU -3%, SMH -3% Eurozone - The euro zone's economy grew by more than expected in the second quarter of 2024, flash figures from the European Union's statistics office showed Tuesday. - The zone's gross domestic product rose by 0.3% in the three months to the end of June compared to the previous quarter, the data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2% increase on a quarterly basis. McDonald's Earnings - McDonald’s on Monday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that missed analysts’ expectations as same-store sales declined across every division. - Earnings per share: $2.97 adjusted vs. $3.07 expected - Revenue: $6.49 billion vs. $6.61 billion expected - “At the end of the day, we expect customers will continue to feel the pinch of the economy and a higher cost of living for at least the next several quarters in this very competitive landscape,” McDonald’s U.S. President Joe Erlinger said - Stock - Went up - Big plan ????? Bring back the Value Meal (How does that actually help?)

DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident) Dangerous market - running on emotions Tesla Earnings are out... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Chatroom still a work in progress it appears Warm Up - Politics Goes off the rails - Biden out (Failed) - Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident) - Dangerous market - running on emotions Market Update - DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages - massive losses as UNH fails to keep up (accounted for 500+ points of that big rally in July) - Market broadened out finally - then the mega-caps started to come in and market was crushed - - Tesla Earnings are out - other tech names too Need a new CTP Market Emotions - Now that we  are in the throws of the election cycle - dangerous market - Running on emotion - and you can see that we levels (round like futures markets @ES - 5,600 and @NQ 20,000 levels as battle lines) - People will think that one or other candidate is good or bad and will invest accordingly (usually without facts) - Biden dropping  out has interesting impact - Now we have one candidate that we really do not know actual policy and track record. Also unknown VP ... Crowdstrike Glitch - Anything on your end a problem? - Some minor trading issues with Schwab for a minute on Friday - Airlines - still seem to be having issues - Bigger issues when relying on single company? - Friday and over weekend MSFT said that they restored a majority of services - Hackers are already taking advantage of situation and Crowdstike out with warnings  (some firms  may get phished into beleiving that there is a fix and it is actually a hack) Delta Offers Apologies+ - CEO Ed Bastian offered Freq flyer miles to travelers that were stuck due to Crowdstrike "glitch" - 800 flights were cancelled Sunday (22% of flights) - The airline was offering flight attendants extra pay to pick up shifts - WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? (Crowdstike and passengers) Tech - Wiz Walks - $23 billion - they say NO THANKS - Wiz - 4 year old start up that makes security tools to protect data centers - May valuation was $12 billion - Company wants to go the IPO route Election - Sooooo - thoughts on the Biden dropout? (Via letter and Social Media - is that weird?) - Trump Trade fade? - Vance tough on anything  foreign? (USA First) - Anyone else aside from Harris? Bank Earnings - Looking back - not much to be upset about - so that is good - Rate expectations are for September (Dec more likely) - Yield curve has steepened (good for profit margin of banks) - Fed continues to be dovish - Trump expectations of reduced regulations? More Earnings - Google/Alphabet - Alphabet prelim Q2 $1.89 vs $1.84 FactSet Consensus; revs $84.74 bln vs $84.22 bln FactSet Consensus --- Margin 32% vs 29& a year ago (Stock initially up then tuend lower on lower advert revenue  and other AI comments) - Tesla Earnings - Tesla prelim Q2 $0.52 vs $0.61 FactSet Consensus; revs $25.5 bln vs $24.38 bln FactSet Consensus -- Tesla prelim: GAAP gross margin of 18.0%, down 23 bps yr/yr ---- Tesla prelim: reiterates that in 2024, its vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than growth rate achieved in 2023 (Stock down 5%) - Visa: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $2.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $2.42; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $8.9 bln vs the $8.92 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock down 10%) Warren - Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its gigantic Bank of America holding for the first time in four and a half years following the bank's strong 2024 run.

Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit) Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being  considered at the moment) KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020 Earnings growth expected to continue.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Chatroom should be back up and running.... Warm Up - Assassination Attempts = Market Positive (for US Markets ONLY) - ALL TIME HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD - SMALL CAPS ON A BENDER - Disinflation OUT - Deflation IN - College athletes - Min Wage? Market Update - Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit) - Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being  considered at the moment) - KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020 - Earnings growth expected to continue.... - Gold at ATH - Bitcoin moving - Risk on or Worries about the future? OH MY - Small Caps +10% MTD , 11% YTD (Tom Lee calling for 40% move over next 12 weeks...) - Value over Growth - Real Estate - Builders - WOW! --- Jump from 50 to 400+ 52 Week Highs today ----- Money coming out of Big boys - rotating and it is uneven pull/push - KRE - Regional banks up 14% this month ----- DJIA UP BIG AGAIN - Rates holding at lower end of the range Post Assassination Attempt (Monday Markets) - European Markets RED across the board - Russian Market GREEN - China RED - Japan RED - US Markets GREEN - Bitcoin and Ether - GREEN Powell on Monday - Markets came in as Powell -ONCE AGAIN - repeated the same mantra of not done - but looking to cut before we reach 2% -B.O.R.I.N.G. Trump Media - DJT Stock: Trump Media shares surged over 50% in premarket trading Monday following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. - Was up 30% by end of day on Monday China Economic Update - China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7% year on year, missing expectations of a 5.1% growth, according to a Reuters poll. - Retail sales also missed expectations, rising by 2% year-on-year in June, versus the 3.3% forecast. - Industrial production beat expectations up by 5.3% in June from a year ago, above the forecast 5% increase. - Urban fixed asset investment for the first six months of the year rose by 3.9%, matching expectations. - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year on- year in the first quarter. KRI Indicator - Hitting +6 and that has not happened since June 2020 - First time over +5 since Dec 2023 (pulled back a few days later, then continued its upward trajectory - Rolled over a bit a few days later then continued its upward trajectory (BULL MARKET) Any Surprise? Retail.... - Macy's -14.2% is sharply lower after terminating M&A talks with Arkhouse Mgmt and Brigade Capital - Burberry, a luxury brand which trades in London, also issued a profit warning and named a new CEO. - These developments are leading to weakness in some department store names: JWN -3%, KSS -2.7%, DDS -2.3%. - Consumer is starting to fight  back????? DEFLATION? - CPI was NEGATIVE MoM - PPI was hot and cold - depending on what number you looked at Deflation CPI Chart   Finally! - Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook "Bill" Hwang was convicted of fraud and other charges by a jury in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday at a criminal trial in which prosecutors accused him of market manipulation ahead of the 2021 collapse of his $36 billion private investment firm. - The trial centered on the implosion of Hwang's family office Archegos,

Shark Week (Market Style) - Whale Gorging - Big Teeth - Big Appetites Earnings season coming up Biden staying in the race (for now) Complacency nearing a tipping point. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Shark Week - Whale Gorging - Big Teeth - Big Appetites - Earnings season coming up - Biden staying in the race - Market Moves - the inside track - NEW - ALL ABOUT BIDEN ISSSUES Market Update - Big Swings - Massive Rotation - Employment Report for June - Market Moves - the inside track - Big Box - down to a few Fed First - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Q&A with Senate Banking Committee: The "likely next direction" of policy will be a loosening of policy; rate hike not likely Employment Reports - Private payroll growth edged lower in June, according to a report Wednesday from ADP that indicates a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market. - Companies added 150,000 jobs for the month, below the upwardly revised 157,000 in May and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 160,000. The total was the lowest monthly gain since January. - BLS Official saw Unemp rate tick up to 4.1% -Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June - Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. The Inside Track Lowdown -- People asking  me "When will this end? It is crazy!" - This week we will be treated to CPI and PPI. - As it stands, Powell made comments after the close on July 3rd that they  were not satisfied with the rate of change related to inflation.  There is more work to be done he said. But, the markets don't really care about that - they see a cut in September and December. - The general direction of the markets - or path of least resistance appears to be up. - Investors are gorging themselves on AI related names. - The big boys (and girls) of the market are taking in big money - helping to keep markets buoyed. - - It has the look and feel of great white sharks in a ravenous feeding frenzy over a rotting whale corpse. - Full Disclosure - we hold a good number of these names in our core equity allocation. Microsoft, Nvidia, SMCI, Google (Alphabet), Meta (Facebook) and several more. - Monday moves - the DJIA was up big to start the day and at the lunchtime break was in the red. The money clearly flowed out of DJIA and into the NASDAQ100 again. So, this is how it will be for a while, or until something changes. And, that may very well be the next batch of earnings through the season that begins on this coming Friday with the major financial names. Ford - Ford truck sales, which includes pickups and vans, totaled 308,920 vehicles during the period, the company's best second-quarter performance for the category since 2019, Ford said. Sales in its F-Series totaled 199,463 vehicles. - Sales of Ford electric vehicles totaled 23,957 during the second quarter, up 61%. - The automaker said its EVs, in particular the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, are drawing new customers to the company. - Stock is stuck in a range Boeing - Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge and pay a fine of $243.6 million to resolve a U.S. Justice Department investigation into two 737 MAX fatal crashes, the government said in a court filing on Sunday. - The plea deal, which requires a judge's approval, would brand the planemaker a convicted felon in connection with crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia over a five-month period in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people. - Smart - quick slap on the wrist and get it over with (for publicity sake) - As part of the deal, the planemaker agreed to spend at least $455 million over the next three years to...

Let them eat tech! Meme stock mania may be dying down Short week - July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 - closed - July 5? How About those Florida Panthers? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Let them eat tech! - Meme stock mania may be dying down - Short week - July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 - closed - July 5? - How About those Florida Panthers? Market Update - Heavily weighted toward 10 stocks - breath sucks - Seeing slowdown in consumer confidence and holding steady on most economic reports - Some concerns mounting about Russia - Stress Tests - Anyone Surprised? Russia Issues - NATO wants to put a senior civilian official in Kyiv, Ukraine - Market was a little concerned about this - as new broke, selling occurred (for about 5 minutes) HA! Play with Fire - Keith Gill, the investor known as "Roaring Kitty" who helped spur the meme stock mania of 2021, was sued by GameStop investors who said they lost money through his "pump-and-dump" scheme for the videogame retailer. - A proposed class action accusing Gill of securities fraud was filed on Friday in the Brooklyn, New York federal court. - Investors led by Martin Radev, who lives in the Las Vegas area, said Gill manipulated GameStop securities between May 13 and June 13 by quietly accumulating large quantities of stock and call options, and then dumping some holdings after emerging from a three-year social media hiatus. More Kitty Hoo-Haa - Shares of Chewy popped in the premarket trading Monday after a Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed meme stock trader "Roaring Kitty" took a stake in the pet food e-commerce retailer. - The filing showed Keith Gill bought just over 9 million shares — amounting to a 6.6% stake in the company. That makes him the third-biggest Chewy shareholder, according to FactSet. Based on Friday's close, that stake is valued at more than $245 million. - Stock was initially p 16% in premarket (that is after some wild swings last week) ---- Close DOWN 6% on the day after that initial pop - This guy is up Ryan Cohen's butt pretty far.. Chipotle Split Update - Trading near a post-split low - Stock initially moved higher toward $68 then reverses hard over the past few sessions, trading near $60 - This is important as investors may not just run into split announcements after this performance. ---- Or people are finally agreeing with JCD on the lack of taste? Boeing - Boeing said Monday that it will buy back its struggling fuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems in an all-stock deal that the plane maker has said will improve safety and quality control. - It said it agreed to pay $37.25 a share in Boeing stock for Spirit, giving the aerospace company an equity value of $4.7 billion. Including Spirit’s debt the deal has a transaction value of $8.3 billion Boeing said. Spirit’s shares closed Friday at $32.87 a share, giving it a market capitalization of about $3.8 billion. ---- MORE: U.S. prosecutors plan to seek a guilty plea from Boeing over a charge tied to two fatal crashes of 737 Max planes, attorneys for the victims' family members said Sunday, blasting a potential agreement as a "sweetheart deal." - The DOJ said in May that it was reviewing whether Boeing violated a 2021 settlement that protected Boeing from federal charges. The company agreed to pay a $2.5 billion penalty for a conspiracy charge tied to the 2018 and 2019 crashes of its best-selling 737 Max planes, which killed all 346 people on the two flights. OIL! - Breaking out -- Concerns over supply issues due to Houthi rebels droning Suez Canal --- Hurricane season hitting early - EARLIEST Cat4 on record happening now!

- Churn and Burn - RAMP UP - Rotation (Renting Space) - Long Stretch with limited volatility - Short Interest at MULTI year lows - NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minute PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Summer Spin Cycle - New flow shifting to election - Banks - Fed's Stress Test Results  (Wednesday) - Last week of month and quarter! Market Update - Churn and Burn - RAMP UP - Rotation (Renting Space) - Long Stretch with limited volatility - Short Interest at MULTI year lows - NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minute Next week is JULY 4th - Markets closing early (1PM) on Wednesday - Markets Closed on Thursday - Most people will take Friday off! Short Interest - Multi-Year low on S&P 500 and stocks - Hedge fund disclosures stopping some from shorting (after Meme stock craze) - Seems that no shorts helping to calm volatility Stock Market - Weird Facts - The S&P 500 has gone 377 days without a 2.05% sell-off. That's the longest stretch for the benchmark since the great financial crisis - The index hasn't experienced a gain of at least 2.15% in that time either - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is considered by many investors as the de facto fear gauge on the Street. Last month, it hit its lowest level going back to November 2020. On Friday, it traded around 13, near historically low levels. - Complacency or Green-Light? Home Prices - Sales of previously owned homes are sitting at a 30-year low, and didn't move much in May as prices hit a new record and mortgage rates remain high. - Many reasons - but no place to go, high rates and high prices - IF more inventory comes on the market - possibly prices will come down (Last month inventories jumped 6.7%) - Median price of a home sold in May was $419,300 More Homes - Sales of homes priced below $250,000 were lower than a year ago, while sales priced between $250,000 and $500,000 were up just 1%. Sales priced between $750,000 and $1 million were 13% higher, and sales priced over $1 million were up nearly 23%. - Cash is still king, accounting for 28% of sales. - First-time buyers are hanging in at 31% of sales, up from 28% the year before. MORE HOUSING - April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 7.2% vs. 6.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 7.5% from 7.4% ERC Credit DENIED - The IRS will deny billions of dollars' worth of claims for a pandemic-era tax break while working to process lower-risk filings, the agency said on Thursday afternoon. - These are what you heard on commercials for a while... - After investigating more than 1 million claims worth roughly $86 billion, the IRS said in the release that it identified 10% to 20% of the highest-risk filings, and "tens of thousands" will be rejected in the coming weeks, according to the agency. Another 60% to 70% of claims with an "unacceptable level of risk" will be further examined, the IRS said. - During the ERC review period, the agency processed 28,000 claims received before September 2023 worth $2.2 billion and disallowed more than 14,000 claims worth $1 billion, according to the release. TESLA - Headcount reduction continues - 14% of workforce has been slashed this year -- The latest figure is not from precise payroll data, but from the number of people who are on Tesla's "everybody" email distribution list as of June 17 - Bloomberg reporting that Telsa looming for 20% total headcount cut in 2023 to benefit profitability after company reached inefficiency levels of 25% -30% Musk - Need to know - How many children did Elon father? Banks - Fed Stress Tests on Wednesday (all should pass) - U.S. bank regulators said four major banks had shortcomings in their "...

Apple AI - Disappoints (or confuses) NVDA - passes AAPL market cap Treasury yields moving within a range Beanstalk - what is that story again? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter NO SHOW NET WEEK - OUT ON BIZ FOR A FEW DAYS Warm Up - Apple AI - Disappoints (or confuses) - for a minute - NVDA - passes AAPL market cap - Treasury yields moving within a range - Beanstalk - what is that story again? - Fed in play Market Update - Large Caps dominate June (thus far) - Small-caps out of favor - Buyers are hungry - any dip is bought - Economic confusion - Jobs report - NVDA - 10:1 completed (now what?) Apple WWDC - Pins and Needles - Features will go beyond artificial intelligence to personal intelligence. - Will protect privacy at every step. Capabilities: - Will enable iPhone to create language and images.Language understanding will be natural. - New writing tools can summarize text when you are working on a blog post. - Users can create new emojis for conversation. - Images can be created in three styles. Actions: - Will allow hundreds of "actions" such as "show me my photos from last week" or "show me the podcast my mom wanted me to listen to last week." - Apple Intelligence is powered by large language models. - Introduces Apple Private Cloud with personalized AI. - Siri will be able to take AI enabled actions. It will allow for more natural language. ---- Market not impressed - was hoping for BIG AI announcement from Apple. ------ Stock down on this news - then POPS to ATH on Tuesday Elon on Apple AI - Elon Musk said he would ban Apple Inc. devices from his companies if OpenAI’s software is integrated into the products at the operating system level. - The remarks followed a presentation Monday by Apple Inc., when it said that customers would have access to OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot through the Siri digital assistant. Apple plans to roll out the capabilities as part of a suite of new AI features later this year. Jobs report - May nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 (Briefing.com consensus 185,000). - The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 249,000 from 237,000. - April nonfarm payrolls revised to 165,000 from 175,000. March nonfarm payrolls revised to 310,000 from 315,000. - May average hourly earnings were up 0.4% - Unemployment rate moved up to 4% --- YET - still HOPE for 1-2 rate cuts this year OOPS - Toyota - company has lost %15B market cap after false data found - Japan's transport ministry found false data used to certify certain models a week ago on Monday. - Other companies too - Toyota, Mazda, Suzuki, Yamaha -- Companies falsifying data used in safety tests. - Toyota chairman: "tested using methods that differ from the standards defined by the national authorities." --- Collusion???? Gold - Short Supply? - According to the World Gold Council - Gold hard to find - New gold deposits are becoming harder to find around the world as many prospective areas have already been explored - Gold Strategist: "I think the overwhelming story there is: after 10 years of rapid growth from around 2008, the mining industry is struggling to report sustained growth in production," said Reade. - Bottom Line: "It's getting harder to find gold, permit it, finance it, and operate it," Game-Stop Already - Shares tank 40% after another big run up - Keith Gill live stream - Continues to post cryptic messages now that he is back - Must be bored Panic Buttons - Retail giant Walmart says it is against putting panic buttons in stores - a move that the New York legislature wants to require under a new law aimed at keeping retail workers safe.

Sinkholes forming Memes again - Huge Moves Economy starting to stall Face Ripper moves into the close PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Sinkholes forming - Memes again - Huge Moves - Economy starting to stall - Announcing a NEW CTP Market Update - Face Ripping - Last Friday - Software Stocks hammered - May finished in the green nicely - Oil Drooping - Roaring Kitty is back Face Rip - Stocks ramped on the last day of the month - 300 points in 10 minutes to finish the day on Friday - markets had a good month - -- Large Cap Growth up 6% for the month - US real estate up 5% - Only area LataAm down for May Sinkhole Forming Again - MEGA Caps pulling market up - Primarily NVDA - Monday S&P 500 Flat - S&P Equal Weight  -0.53% Best Buy Earnings - "Sluggish Demand" -  Earnings per share: $1.20 vs. $1.08 expected   Revenue: $8.85 billion vs. $8.96 billion expected - Best Buy has noticed a pullback in purchases of discretionary items as consumers manage higher costs because of inflation. - Shares soar Software stocks Soft - Salesforce plunges 20% after it posted weaker than expected revenue - The WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund, an exchange-traded fund that tracks cloud stocks, slid 5% this week, the sharpest decline since January. Paycom, GitLab, Confluent, Snowflake and ServiceNow all lost at least 10% of their value in the downdraft. - Dell PLUNGED - 20% too this week Economics - April Construction Spending -0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior -0.2% - May ISM Manufacturing Index 48.7 vs 49.6 Briefing.com consensus; prior 49.2 - May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final 51.3 vs 50.9 prelim; prior 50.0 Focus on Manufacturing (Briefing.com) - The May ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 48.7% (consensus 49.6%), down from 49.2% in April. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the May reading suggests there was a faster pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector last month. - The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a faster pace of contraction in manufacturing activity that will stir worries about the economy missing its mark with a soft landing. - The New Orders Index slumped to 45.4% from 49.1%, hitting its lowest level since May 2023. - The Prices Index dropped to 57.0% from 60.9%. - The Employment Index increased to 51.1% from 48.6%. - The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 42.4% from 45.4%. - The Supplier Deliveries Index held steady at 48.9%. - The Production Index decreased to 50.2% from 51.3%. - The New Export Orders Index rose to 50.6% from 48.7%. Fed Cuts - Not Happening - According to the latest issues of Barrons - "The Federal Reserve isn’t likely to lower interest rates in 2024.  Elevated inflation, a resilient economy, and a still-strong, if softening labor market argue against the need for easing monetary policy, especially as these conditions are expected to persist through year end." WAIT A MINUTE - Rate cut bets for September are back a 66% probability after a slightly weaker than expected JOLTS report - 10YR Yields @ 4.35% (Down from 4.6% last week) GDPNow - Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q2 real GDP growth is 1.8%, down from 2.7% on May 31 - Latest downward revision follows today's release of the ISM Manufacturing Index for May and Construction Spending Report for April. As Usual - Backwards - OPEC+ prolongs cuts for one year - OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.

Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes Cruise anyone? Global Warming - New Info In PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM - The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes - Cruise anyone? - Global Warming - New Info In Market Update - 40,000 ! Then we fail - Fed Officials Hawkish behind closed doors - BBQFlation - Split Excitement! - Hindenburg Omen Fed - Two Faced - Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions. - Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. - The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. BBQFlation - Your Memorial Day barbecue will cost upward of 10 percent more than it did this time last year according to Datasembly - Datasembly follows the cost of groceries across the country every week. Its recently released data points to this year's Memorial Day festivities costing the average American family about $30.18 or 10.19% more than 2023. - Burgers jumped from $7.04 in 2023 to $8.07 in 2024, or a change of 14.63% in cost. Hamburger buns cost two cents more, from $3.04 on average to $3.06. Hindenburg Omen - Indicator was triggered last week. - only right about 25% of the time - Was thought to be able to predict market crashes - let's see what happens. FED HEAD - The Federal Reserve should wait for significant progress on inflation before cutting interest rates, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday. - Asked what conditions were needed for the Fed to cut rates once or twice this year, Kashkari said: “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back.” - He said the central bank could potentially even hike rates if inflation fails to come down further. “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point,” Kashkari added. Could we finally get relief from these thieves? - The U.S. Department of Justice is suing to break up Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, over alleged antitrust violations. - The lawsuit, joined by 30 states and filed Thursday, follows a DOJ investigation into whether Live Nation maintains a monopoly in the ticketing industry, a probe launched in 2022 and bolstered by fan complaints following a botched roll out for tickets to Taylor Swift's Eras tour. - In a statement, Live Nation said the DOJ's allegations of a monopoly are "absurd." - "The DOJ's complaint attempts to portray Live Nation and Ticketmaster as the cause of fan frustration with the live entertainment industry. It blames concert promoters and ticketing companies—neither of which control ticket prices—for high ticket prices. It ignores everything that is actually responsible for higher ticket prices, from increasing production costs to artist popularity, to 24/7 online ticket scalping that reveals the public's willingness to pay far more than primary tickets cost," said Dan Wall, Live Nation executive vice president for corporate and regulatory affairs. DONATIONS- New Shirt Design? Miracle Flights - The 1986 Air Carrier Access Act requires airlines to provide a wheelchair to passengers with disabilities at the airport. The problem: Many travelers are faking it,

Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday Oil Unusually stable Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident? Meme stocks come back to earth PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday - Oil Unusually stable - Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident? - Meme stocks come back to earth - We have an Osbourne Effect Market Update - 40,000 ! Get the party hats! - ATH, ATH, ATH - Commods - Copper and Gold (AND silver) - VIX - lowest since 2019 - Someone better against Tesla (Big name) Banks - The Federal Reserve and two other U.S. regulators are moving toward a new plan that would significantly reduce a nearly 20% mandated increase in capital for the country's biggest banks following lobbying efforts by industry CEOs like JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend. - Required increases in capital for banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs meant to ensure they have sufficient buffers to absorb potential losses — would on average be about as much as originally floated, the Journal added. - Top officials from all three agencies involved in the pending capital rules — the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — are still discussing substantive and technical revisions and there is no guarantee that an agreement will be reached, the WSJ reported. Goodbye? - In a response to a question Monday about the bank's succession planning, Dimon indicated that his expected tenure is less than five more years - That's a key change from Dimon's previous responses to succession questions, in which his standard answer had been that retirement was perpetually five years away. - Stock dropped 4% on that conversation No Direction - Grasping .... - Snap Inc. Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel said he’s investing more aggressively in bringing artificial intelligence and machine learning to Snapchat to make it more interesting for its users, the next major shift after years spent overhauling its advertising business. - “There was a recognition that we’d fallen behind the curve on the machine learning side, which, to some degree, was reflected in the business performance,” Spiegel said in an interview. “We needed to improve there and bring together some of our most senior machine learning folks to just talk about what it would look like for us to get to state of the art and really invest.” Meanwhile - VIX is sagging - The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, closed Friday at the lowest level since November 2019 as the benchmark stock index traded in a tight range just below the all-time high. - Aside from an April pop, the VIX has been muted for much of 2024 as shares climbed. VIX Chart Interesting - Online home goods retailer Wayfair is opening its first namesake store, near Chicago, following a string of other digitally native companies that have turned to brick-and-mortar for growth. - So they think the low cost failed execution is going to do better in the higher cost brick and mortar arena? - The company says people need to still sit in and try furniture.... (WHAT?) AI - Here we go - OpenAI has disbanded its team focused on the long-term risks of artificial intelligence just one year after the company announced the group, a source familiar with the situation confirmed to CNBC on Friday. - News of Sutskever's and Leike's departures, and the dissolution of the superalignment team, come days after OpenAI launched a new AI model and desktop version of ChatGPT, along with an updated user interface,

Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation PPI HOT - Market does not care A Meme stock face ripper! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Inflation reports PPI today and CPI tomorrow - Sentiment is dropping - wondering why - Meme stock face ripper - EV days - losses not acceptable - PPI and CPI this week Market Update - Another good week - seems like coming out of downturn - Rates down- 10Y Treas falling over past week - S&P 500 near record - Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation - PPI HOT - Market does not care Fed talk - Fed's Goolsbee and Kashkari - There has been cross currents in the data. - There has been some bumps in the road on inflation in 2024. - The Fed is in a wait and see mode - Cautious about how restrictive policy is. - More data is needed before they can predict a rate cut. - There is a high bar for another rate hike, but not ruling it out. - Leases trending up is a concerning signal. ----- What does any of that tell us? ------ We need to start a movement to SHUT THE FED UP (STFU) Latest Inflation Readings - The Producer Price index for final demand increased 0.5% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March. The index for final demand, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March. - On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 2.2%, marking the largest increase since April 2023, while the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, was up 2.4%, unchanged from March. - The key takeaway from the report is that nearly three quarters of the increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.6% increase in the index for final demand services, something that will detract from the Fed's confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to its 2% target. Powell speaking AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says he doesn't think next rate move will be a hike, more likely a hold; time will tell if policy is sufficiently restrictive; PPI reading was quite mixed Getting AI Overload - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says "not gpt-5, not a search engine, but we’ve been hard at work on some new stuff we think people will love! feels like magic to me"  Sentiment - Consumer sentiment fell sharply in May to the lowest level in six months as Americans cited concerns about stubbornly high inflation and interest rates and fears that unemployment could rise - May Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 67.4 vs 76.5 Briefing.com consensus; April Final was 77.2 Fed Put - Markets melting up since last Powell comments - There is  a new spin on the old "Fed put." The latter rested on an unspoken assurance that the Fed would step in with easier policy to forestall a market meltdown. - The new version doesn't guarantee a rate cut soon, but it has created an unspoken assurance that market participants can trade around the idea that the next monetary policy move is likely to be a rate cut. Meme Stocks - Gamestock was up 80% and  many of the other names moving hard --- Seems like the original Gamestock dude - Roaring Kitty put out a tweet on Monday and the stock went bananas... More Squeeze - Shares of the vaccine maker soared 99% Friday, after the company signed a $1.2 billion licensing agreement with Sanofi that includes commercializing a combined Covid-19 and flu shot. - The move boosts a stock that had plunged about 99% — prior to the deal — from its 2021 peak amid waning demand for its Covid vaccine.

Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment --- Remember - Confidence  and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment -- --- Remember - Confidence  and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) - Announcing the WINNER  CTP for Apple - Fake Work? Market Update - If down - buy.... Names that were hammered due to earnings catching bids again - Follow up - Utilities - Fed Speaks - Can't stop the Dove - Employment - Excitement about the Unemployment Rate Earnings Season Update: - Overall, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2024 to date. - Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 74%. - In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.5% above estimates, which is also below the 5-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.7% - Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors. - Three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings: Energy, Health Care, and Materials. - Revenue - up again - estimated to be 4.1% when all said and done. -  -    If 4.1% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index. Fake Work - An investor at famed Silicon Valley firm Andreessen Horowitz is the latest VC to get involved in the debate around "fake work" in the tech industry. - Ulevitch went on to point the finger at Google specifically, calling it "an amazing example." - "I don't think it's crazy to believe that half the white-collar staff at Google probably does no real work," he said. "The company has spent billions and billions of dollars per year on projects that go nowhere for over a decade, and all that money could have been returned to shareholders who have retirement accounts." - Marc Andreessen has criticized a managerial "laptop class" and tweeted in 2022, "The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more." Buy 'em - Companies that took a hit after earnings (NFLX, AMD) getting bid again - NFLX gapped lower from ~$608 to $551 and now $592 - AMD dropped from $160 to $140 and now $156 - SPY , IWM and QQQ- Now above the 50day Moving average again Follow Up - Utilities - Just wanted to provide this idea again - Data Warehouses and other AI Power hungry places --- Symbol list of some utilities to look at further - SO, NEE, EXC, CMS - Natural gas producers are planning for a significant spike in demand over the next decade, as artificial intelligence drives a surge in electricity consumption that renewables may struggle to meet alone. - After a decade of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand is forecast to grow as much as 20% by 2030, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published in April. Power companies are moving to quickly secure energy as the rise of AI coincides with the expansion of domestic semiconductor and battery manufacturing as well as the electrification of the nation's vehicle fleet. - AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030 Utilities ETF Apple - Earnings - Nothing great in the earnings. --- A few pockets of sunshine.... --- Raises dividend and $110 BILLION buyback - largest buyback EVER ...

Earnings season winners and losers. Episode 700 - been a great run - plenty more to come. New airline regulations and what that means to all of us. Inflation - its not over just yet. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Show #700 - Guess the date of EPISODE #1 (Show # 1 was Sep 16, 2008) - - No Agenda episode  #1  - October 26, 2007 --- The Disciplined Investor Podcast show #1 -  Mar 02, 2007 - ALL economic series showing signs of inflation - The great money in God - Top Wealthiest Pastors - Fiducuary rules fo Retirment Plans Market Update - Shaking off some and smacking others - earnings season underway - April not a great month for US equities - April now in the books - Earnings seasons - winners and losers - Yields on I Bonds Updated - European stocks end April down 1.49%, posting first negative month since October Derivative AI Investing - Secondary play - Utilities - We spoke of the huge demand for electricity/power from any source to power datacenters - Investors looking for a unique way into the stock market’s artificial intelligence boom are finding an intriguing bank shot in what’s traditionally the most boring corner of the equities universe: utilities. - Southern Company, NextEra, Excelon, CMS Energy also Eaton, Hubbell -- Bad couple years as this is an interest sensitive sector - but massive consumption increase coming Bird Flu in Milk - The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed milking cows in Colorado tested positive for Bird Flu, following earlier infections in Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Idaho, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Dakota. - Additional tests of milk showed that pasteurization killed the bird flu virus, federal health officials said on Friday, as Colorado became the ninth U.S. state to report an infected dairy herd. - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late on Friday said preliminary results from gold-standard PCR testing showed pasteurization killed the virus in milk and baby formula. It did not say how many milk products it had tested but added that it plans to do more testing on 297 products from 38 states. Good Money in God - Most Wealth Pastors - Benny Hinn, 71 Estimated net worth: US$60 million Joel Osteen, 61 Estimated net worth: US$100 million - Kenneth Copeland, 87 Estimated net worth: US$300 million Apple Headset and More - Earnings coming May 2 - Big slowdown in sales in China has been widely telegraphed - Not much excitement about the product line or any innovation at this point - AI is going to be conversation they will start to help push shares - Apple slashes Vision Pro production, cancels 2025 model in response to plummeting demand -- Analysts are cutting their sales for the Vision Pro in HALF! - - Apple may decide not to release a new model in 2025 - was expecting a cheaper version possibly Back to Inflation - Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated. - The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus. - Consumers showed they are still spending despite the elevated price level. Personal spending rose 0.8% on the month, a touch higher even than the 0.7% estimate. Personal income increased 0.5%, in line with expectations and higher than the 0.3% increase in February. - GDP Report showed more pricing pressures - Overall, 100% of recent reports showed that the inflation monste...

Markets having a tough time and a big week of data is coming. Got the 5% correction - is there more? M&A - Another deal dies PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Markets having a tough time - Happy Passover! - SHOW 700 coming up! - Happy belated 420 Day to our fine smoky listeners - Jumping to Conclusions - We have a limerick! Market Update - Big week(s) coming for economics - Got the 5% correction - is there more? - M&A - Another deal dies - Earnings - Tech on deck - Historic Treasury Auction this week - need to pay the bills since tax receipts not doing it and lots of debt outstanding Who Would think??? - UK - FTSE 100 at all-time high! Recap: - Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Tesla Inc., all of which are among the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech giants, will report THIS WEEK week. - Technology stocks are selling off, with the Nasdaq 100 Index registering its biggest weekly drop since November 2022 in the midst of a four-week losing streak, its longest since December 2022. - Even AI darling Nvidia Corp. is getting hit, plunging 10% on Friday and wiping out $212 billion in market value for its worst day since the Covid pandemic in March 2020. MAG7 Profit Outlook - But hope is on the horizon. Profits for the Mag Seven — which also includes Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia — are forecast to rise 38% in the first quarter from a year ago, dwarfing the overall S&P 500’s 2.4% anticipated year-over-year earnings growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. - Around 178 S&P 500 companies — representing more than 40% of the index’s market capitalization — will post results next week. But the biggest expectations are for megacap tech firms. = = Nvidia, which Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk dubbed “the most important stock on planet Earth,” doesn’t report its earnings for another month. Tesla - Stock down a lot - DOWN 43% YTD - Down 65% from high set November 2021 - Tesla is recalling nearly 3,900 of its Cybertrucks due to an issue with the vehicle's accelerator pedal. - The recall, announced Wednesday, was prompted by accelerator pedal pads in the trucks that "may dislodge and cause the pedal to become trapped by the interior trim," - All of the 3,878 of the 2024 Cybertrucks that Tesla built between Nov. 13 and April 4 are subject to the recall, the electric vehicle maker’s safety recall report said. - And then: Tesla on Saturday slashed the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver assistant software to $8,000 from $12,000 in the United States, as CEO Elon Musk reaffirms his commitment to self-driving technology. - Musk is betting the technology will become a major source of revenue for the world's most valuable automaker. But he has for years failed to achieve the goal of self-driving capability, with the technology under growing regulatory and legal scrutiny. ----- Could be a short squeeze setting up for earnings (Tonight) - READ MORE>>>>> Tesla Earnings - Tesla misses by $0.04, misses on revs, gross margin down 199 bps yr/yr, reiterates that in 2024, vehicle volume may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023 - Total GAAP gross margin of 17.4%, down 199 bps yr/yr. - Operating expenses up 37% yr/yr to $2.53 bln. - Total Deliveries down 9% to 386,810. - Outlook: Co states, "Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform.

Risk - happens fast! Costco Selling ALOT of Gold April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals Rates spike, oil moves lower PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Risk Happens FAST - Costco Selling ALOT of Gold - April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals - Fewer students attending 2 0r 4-year college Market Update - Banks reporting - mixed results - Rates UP! - Earnings Season - Risk off - Missiles Flying --- WAR escalations concerning investors Rates - Rates spiked with all of the recent concern that the Fed will not be cutting rates so fast - Came on on the Iran retaliation worries - Spike Monday to 4.64% for the 10Yr - starting to get worrisome that could be technical move and disrupt markets Rates in Europe - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks. - "We just need to build a bit more confidence in this disinflationary process but if it moves according to our expectations, if we don't have a major shock in development, we are heading towards a moment where we have to moderate the restrictive monetary policy," Lagarde said. --- Also noted that she is very attentive to the price of oil HA! If you don't like the numbers... - The Bank of England on Friday announced a “once in a generation” overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. - The review was initiated in response to criticism over shortcomings in the bank’s recent policymaking. - It sets out 12 recommendations — including scrapping the bank’s “fan chart” forecasting system — which BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing. Inflation Spots Sticker Shock And then at 1:30PM Tuesday - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Canadian forum says recent data shows lack of progress on returning to 2% inflation goal; says US economic performance has been quite strong. - Markets were not pleased - ---- Begs the question: - what is the point of this at a time with such global stress having these types of comments? ---- WSJ's Nick Timiraos says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell "dialed back" rate reduction expectations at Canadian forum amid new inflation uncertainty Safe-haven? - Bitcoin and other cryptos PLUNGE when Iran sent misses and drones - How is that digital gold or store of value? - Simply trades like a speculative risk asset and starting to hear that phrase quite a lot. - Tried to rally on Sunday when Iran said that is all they are doing- but sold off again Monday Earnings This Week -  Plenty of banks and financials (BAC, GS etc) also Netflix Thursday after the close - Proctor and Gamble on Friday - Problem is that they come right as risk elevated. Goldman Sachs Earnings - Goldman Sachs on Monday posted first-quarter profit and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by a surge in trading and investment banking revenue. - The bank said profit jumped 28% to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, from the year earlier period, thanks to a rebound in capital markets activities - Goldman shares climbed more than 4% in the days trading Monday. JPM Earnings - The bank said first-quarter profit rose 6% to $13.42 billion, or $4.44 per share, from a year earlier, boosted by its takeover last year of First Republic during the regional banking crisis. - But in guidance for 2024, the bank said it expected net interest income of around $90 billion, which is essentially unchanged from its previous forecast. - That appeared to disappoint investors, some of whom expected JPMorgan to raise its guidance by $2 billion ...

A WINNER - CTP for Rumble A new CTP to announce! Club 72 Thank You Solar Eclipse PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A WINNER - CTP for Rumble - A new CTP to announce! - Club 72 - Solar Eclipse Market Update - Boeing issues continue - Oil market on fire - Yellen - talking tariffs again - Kashkari and others on cuts - Earnings season starts this week Lucky CLUB 72 Jonathan Farris Mark Studebaker William Palmer Susan Erickson Terrence Cleary Anonymous (2) Fed Walking All Back - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that at the U.S. central bank's meeting last month he penciled in two interest rate cuts this year but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end. - "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said during an interview with Pensions & Investments. "There's a lot of momentum in the economy right now." Walking Forward - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it's possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting. - "While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse," Who is the best? -If you were wondering about the track record of the Fed Chair's performance over time, it's worth delving into the historical data. - Overall, the track record of Fed Chairs over time reflects the challenges and complexities of managing monetary policy in a dynamic and ever-changing economic environment. Each Chair has faced unique circumstances and challenges during their tenure, and their actions have had far-reaching implications for financial markets and the economy as a whole.   Whispers - Hearing that the car business - used and new having one of the worst years on record (from selective car salespeople) - Same as above on lower end boat business (sales) - U.S. small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation, according to a survey on Tuesday. - The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98. - - Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, reflecting higher input and labor costs, up 2 points from February. The share of businesses raising average selling prices rose 7 points from the prior month. Inflation Data and ECO - CPI and PPI this week - CPI expectations are 0.4% MoM for March --- Many are sahing that this is a clean month without odd seasonal factors - so something to watch - - 10 Yr at 4.378% ----------- FOMC minutes at 2:00 Wednesday -- Last week - Employment situation continues to be strong - 3.8% Unemployment rate 300k added to payrolls (Wage growth was okay) Earnings Season - Banks in Focus - Banks are expected to see some decline in earnings over the period - Focus on net interest margin as well as credit deterioration (and days outstanding) - However, YoY - earnings growth for some look pretty good - - - - Property & Casualty Insurance (87%), Reinsurance (62%), Life & Health Insurance (12%), and Multi-line Insurance (12%). REMOTE WORK on the sea

All of a sudden - mood swing The bloom is off the Rate-Cut-Rose Leaking Data - Another breach More AI - lots of $$ committed to this... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - All of a sudden - mood swing - Bloom is off the Rate Cut Rose - Leaking Data - Another breach - More AI - lots of $$ committed to this... Market Update - Oil prices moving through key resistance - Apple back to Oct 2023 support -watch out below? - Gold/Silver Soaring - into higher rates and higher USD??? - Oil on the rise CTP for Rumble Update - Marcus G - In the top spot right now.... - - Thatch House dude HCD: Donations - Need a new Shirt Prize and Design - Plus Contracted Devs prices inflation.  Analyzing Apple's Chart - Key levels of support - Down-trend Apple Chart Powell on Good Friday - PCE report (on day the markets are closed for Good Friday) -- Showed 2.8% YoY and 0.3% MoM - Powell tried to talk down market expectations for rate cuts like several other recent speakers - - Market still hoping for MAYBE 3 - but it looks like June is off the table. Stronger Economy than Thought - ISM comes in above 50 for the first time in nearly 18 months - Economic strength + good employment + Inflation = Rate CUT????? - Market is finally getting the hint --- 10-Yr rate spiked to 4.38% today ISM Chart Global Economic Trends - China finally saw its manufacturing number gain some traction last month --- China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, driven by growing new orders from customers at home and abroad, a private survey showed on Monday. - South Korea - Sticky inflation (Consumer prices advanced 3.1% in March from a year earlier) USA Strong Commodities on the rise - Cocoa futures for May delivery were up 3.9% at $10,030 per metric ton, marking the first time the commodity breaks above the $10,000 mark. Cocoa has been on a tear this year, soaring nearly 39%. - Ivory Coast, the biggest coca producer in the world, is facing hotter-than-normal temperatures — which have led to dryer-than-usual conditions and crop yields. TSLA - Q1 deliveries declined by 8.5% yr/yr to 433,000, representing TSLA's first yr/yr decline since the pandemic-impacted year of 2020. Importantly, that decrease is partly due to extraordinary events that were out of TSLA's control. -- Berlin fire factory shutdown, Red Sea passage issues etch. - Competition in China is really heating up and cost of EVs from many Chinese manufacturers are much lower. M&A - Amazon - Amazon.com Inc. says it’s investing an additional $2.75 billion into Anthropic, an artificial intelligence startup. - The infusion brings Amazon’s total investment in the company, a well-regarded builder of so-called generative AI tools able to generate text and analysis, to $4 billion, following an earlier investment announced in September. -  As part of that deal, Amazon had the right to contribute the additional funds in the form of a convertible note, provided it did so before the end of March. AI NEWS - Microsoft and OpenAI are in discussions regarding Stargate, a new AI super-computer data center project to be headquartered in the U.S. may cost over $115 billion and is planned for launch in 2028. - $$$$$$115 BILLION - That is like 115,000 $1,000,000 homes.... - Stargate’s power requirements, estimated to be several gigawatts (5) may require Microsoft and OpenAI to explore alternative power sources, like nuclear power. Enough to power 3,750,000 for a year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Hoover Dam X2 Meanwhile - Microsoft will sell its chat and video app Teams s...

Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday. Reddit IPO Frenzy! Inflation - definitely not going away. Announcing - A New Closest to The Pin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A New CTP Announced - No Show Next week - business meetings out of town - A not so surprising result in the Russian Elections - An important change to stock trade settlements is coming Market Update - Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday - Reddit IPO Frenzy - Inflation - definitely not going away - AI Frenzy - Culd Call This DHAI Unplugged - so much AI news to discuss - Yield Frenzy PPI Release - After  a HOT CPI, PPI Comes in Hotter - 0.6% on the core - but only 1.6% YoY - The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February. - Prices for final demand goods advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent. - Prices for final demand advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February. - Markets didn't know what to do with this on Friday. PPI MoM Company Stats - Recession? - According to FactSet: During Dec-March earnings calls, 47 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter. -- This number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61. - This quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021 Companies Citing Recession % of Companies Reddit - IPO slated to be live sometime this week (March 21) - 5X Oversubscribed - Reddit began sending invitations to users to participate in the IPO based on one of two measurements of engagement on the site: either the number of actions they’ve taken as a moderator of a forum on the platform (also known as a “subreddit”) or their “karma” score, a figure that indicates a user’s contributions and reputation among other users on the site. - Reddit plans to list 22 million shares at a price between $31 and $34, according to the latest version of the IPO prospectus it filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company stands to take in between $473.6 million and $519.4 million from the sale of roughly 15.3 million shares. - Valuation > $6 billion - Question???? Is Reddit profitable? NO -  However, the company has been substantially growing revenue in the past few years. ---- Reddit's total revenue in 2023 was $804 million, up 21% from $666 million in 2022. ----- Reddit's net loss for 2023 narrowed to $90.8 million. Yields - 10 YR - Highest level of 2024 - technically breaking out - if Fed moves a bot more hawkish - 4.50% is next test Yields Japan Yields - The Bank of Japan is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years on Tuesday following its two-day monetary policy meeting, Kyodo reported. - The BOJ will raise the short-term rate to the 0%-0.1% range, the report said. The development reflects growing confidence among policymakers that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is in motion following this year’s labor-management pay negotiations - RAISING TO ZERO! Global Rates - Who Will CUT First? First Mover? ELON - Increasing prices on Model Y by $1,000 --- Stock moves up by 6% - Goldman Downgrades - Perhaps this is why stock moved up - another bug downgrade - stock in the toilet - nowhere else to go --- SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies. Elon - Ketamine

Volatility is back and Bitcoin mania is here again. Need a new CTP Stock! China stocks on a run... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Volatility is back - Bitcoin mania - Need a new CTP Stock! - LSD - making an interesting comeback Market Update - NVDA had 2 down days! - Markets still want to go higher - not matter what the data - Yields move up with CPI - Big rebound for NVDA - not letting it go down too much... CPI Release - Total CPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month, meeting expectations, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.4% month-over-month (0.3%). - On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, compared to 3.1% in January, and core CPI increased by 3.8%, versus 3.9% in January. - Excluding shelter, CPI rose by a more modest 1.8% year-over-year. - Despite the headline disappointment for core CPI, the market seems optimistic about the future, anticipating a reduction in the isolated impact of the shelter index in the coming months due to an expected moderation in rent prices. (in other words, thinking the Fed's PCE will not be so hot next time and the Fed will still cut sometime this year) CPI Report key takeaways: - The food index showed no change month-over-month and increased by 2.2% year-over-year. - The energy index rose by 2.3% month-over-month and declined by 1.9% year-over-year. - Used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month and a 1.8% decrease year-over-year. - The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and unchanged year-over-year. - The all items index, excluding food, shelter, and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year. Inflation - YoY Inflation - ACTUAL Layoffs - Does not fit the narrative - Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. - The total of 84,638 planned cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront. - From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end. - Here is where it gets interesting: The layoff numbers, however, are not feeding through to weekly jobless claims, suggesting that unemployment is short-lived and workers are able to find new positions. Powell - On one hand he stated that the Fed is watching and not ready yet to cut rates - data dependent - A couple days later he indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate. - In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn't provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon. Mnuchin to the Rescue? -NYCB had bad month - and got worse - Lost 7% of deposits - Bond rating cut - Investment firm lead by Steve Mnuchin swooped in with a cool $1 billion rescue package - Remember NYCD bought Signature Bank - obviously so much crap in that portfolio it helped poison NYCB Oracle Earnings - New ATH - Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $1.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 7.1% year/year to $13.28 bln vs the $13.29 bln FactSet Consensus. - Q3 Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to $80 billion. - Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $5.1 billion, up 25% in USD, up 24% in constant currency. - Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.8 billion, up 49% in both USD and constant currency.

All sorts of good stuff in this episode. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!   DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Follow Ryan on Twitter  

TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed! Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising Year of Pharma? To The Moon - Crypto Style Valuations getting frothy? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Pays to Follow Pelosi! - Landing on the Moon - then falling over - Japan - something not kosher - New See-through laptop screens Market Update - TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed! - Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising - Year of Pharma? - To The Moon - Crypto Style - Valuations getting frothy   Froth-a-Bubble- Icous? - There is some concern at Apollo regarding a bubble in S&P 500 - The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the tech bubble in the mid-1990s, see chart below. - Different makeup back in 1999 - but still of interest asa the S&P500 reaches levels (P/E) at the high end of the ranges. - SEE LINK Smart Money? - Hedge funds piled into tech stocks in the weeks before Nvidia Corp. earnings. Now, they’re cashing out and selling at the fastest pace in seven months. - Professional managers offloaded their positions for four straight sessions last week, including Thursday, the day after Nvidia posted results, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime-brokerage unit. The intensity of the selling ranks in the 98th - he data suggests traders are booking profits on their tech wagers after a six-week buying streak and putting that extra cash into less volatile stocks, such as consumer staples. - SEE LINK Nancy! - NEWS MONDAY: PANW - Palo Alto Networks shares higher by 9% after Rep. Nancy Pelosi reported Friday afternoon the purchase of 70 call options (purchases made 2/12 and 2/21) - Stock moved down 27% after earnings last week - In fairness, the purchases on 2/12 are very underwater - AH picked this for the game right after post-earnings slump Earnings - Zoom - Zoom shares rose as much as 13% in extended trading on Monday after the video chat software vendor announced fiscal fourth-quarter results that topped analysts' expectations. - Here's how the company did, compared with consensus among analysts polled by LSEG: - -- - Earnings per share: $1.22, adjusted vs. $1.15 expected - - - -Revenue: $1.15 billion vs. $1.13 billion expected Disney -Walt Disneyshareholder Blackwells Capital is calling for it to come up with an artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, saying that this could lift the U.S. media and entertainment conglomerate's stock price by as much as 129%. Blackwells is one of two activist investors pushing for board seats What Goes Up... - Intuitive Machines Inc. shares sink Monday, after the spacecraft company said its lander, which successfully touched down on the moon last week, likely landed on its side. - The landing was touted as the first by a private-sector company to reach the moon intact, as well as the first US spacecraft to reach the moon’s surface since 1972. - In a Monday update, the company wrote that “flight controllers intend to collect data until the lander’s solar panels are no longer exposed to light,” and that “based on Earth and Moon positioning, we believe flight controllers will continue to communicate with Odysseus until Tuesday morning.” - Stock down 33% on this news Japan - Markets at new highs - Yen weak weak weak - Government keeps ultra-loose monetary policy - Recession official - Something is not right over there More Japan - Federal prosecutors in New York on Wednesday said they had charged a Japanese Yakuza leader with conspiring to traffic nuclear materials from Burma to other countries. - Prosecutors said the accused gangster Takeshi Ebisawa "and his confederates showed sa...

Japan makes surprise crypto move. AI dating coaches are coming - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely - AI Buying AI stuff - Cure for Frostbite? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AI dating coaches are coming - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely - AI Buying AI stuff - Cure for Frostbite? - AMAZING AMAZON Market Update - Japan - really pumping the risk assets - China government making $$ moves - China: Latest Problem: Lying Flat - Whoops - What is an extra ZERO anyway?  Follow Up---- - USA CPI came out HOT! - January PPI increased by 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), with the previous figure revised to -0.1% from -0.2%. Meanwhile, January Core PPI rose by 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), and the prior number was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%. - The significant message from the report aligns with the conclusion drawn from the unexpectedly high January CPI report: whether the market opts to overlook this data due to seasonal adjustments, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to dismiss it. - The Fed is likely to perceive it as a reason to maintain a patient approach in terms of potential rate cuts. Market Hysteria - The Russell 2000, sank 4% on Tuesday, but ultimately settled 1.1% higher on the week. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 declined 0.4% this week, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 jumped 0.7%. - The Russell was DOWN 4% on Tuesday after the hotter than expected CPI report. - In addition to the hot CPI reading, market participants also digested a below-consensus Retail Sales report for January, an unexpected drop in jobless claims to 212,000, and a hotter-than-expected PPI report for January. -The 2-yr note yield settled 15 basis points higher this week to 4.65% in response to this week's data and the 10-yr note yield rose 11 basis points this week to 4.30%. (Briefing.com) Japan Crypto News - Japan inched closer to allowing venture capital firms and other investment funds to hold digital assets directly, after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration agreed to submit a revised bill to implement the change. - His cabinet approved the text of a bill on Feb. 16 that seeks to partially amend the country’s industrial competitiveness enhancement act, according to a statement published on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s website. The bill states that “measures will be taken to add cryptoassets to the list of assets that can be acquired and held by investment limited partnerships,” referring to a vehicle used by venture capital firms to secure capital for investments. China - China’s southern province of Hainan moved to cut down-payment ratio for first-time homebuyers, the latest region in the country to ease mortgage policies to boost slumping home sales. - Minimum down payment for first homes was cut to 20% from 25%, according to a Monday report by Hainan Daily. The ratio for second homes remains unchanged at 30%, the outlet reported, citing a government notice without saying when the measure would go into effect. More China - China's market opened after the long Lunar New Year break with a thud. - China looks to be still buying directly into markets to prop up - Reports about pre-pandemic level spending on goods and travel, especially during the Lunar New Year did not lift the mood much China's Newest Concern: Lie Flat - "lie flat", a Chinese term used to describe people who work just enough to afford to spend their time on what they enjoy. ---- Not like Japan Inc of the 1980's - Although there is no data on how many young Chinese are opting out of corporate jobs that they traditionally would have taken, the youth jobless rate rose to a record high of 21.

SUPERBOWL Mania. Bitcoin Fever is back HUGE week for economic reports Altman looking for $ Winner for SAVE CTP announced PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  SUPERBOWL Mania - Bitcoin Fever is back - HUGE week for economic reports - Altman looking for $ - Winner for SAVE CTP Market Update - 3-Day Rule (Buy after plunge) - Made up Nonsense - Get out your 5,000 Hats! - Disney Earnings - Good Stuff - ARM Blowout - CPI Report Meltdown  S&P 500 Breaks 5,000! - All time high - The S&P 500 continues to hit fresh milestones with a first-ever break above the 5,000 level, its valuation is reaching new heights as well. - PE - forward price-to-earnings ratio -- a commonly used metric to value stocks -- this week rose to 20.4 times, a level last reached in February 2022, according to LSEG Datastream. - That puts it far above the index’s historic average of 15.7. - Expectations are for 9.7% earnings growth for 2024 - "The good news is that valuations, while stretched ... are nowhere near the 28x peak at the Y2K Bubble Top," Emanuel said. ???? Follow Up---- - CPI came out HOT! - YoY 3.1% for CPU and 3.9% for Core - The food index was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year. - The energy index was down 0.9% month-over-month and down 4.6% year-over-year. - The used cars and trucks index decreased 3.4% month-over-month and was down 3.5% year-over-year. - The shelter index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year. - The all items index less shelter was up 1.5% year-over-year. ----- Markets hit after reports - gained a bit back toward end of the session - but overbought and hot CPI don't mix --- Small Caps down 4%, NAZ down 2% S&P down 1.4% What Does it Mean? - Fed funds futures push any cut until June - 4 cuts are expectations for 2024 (down 7 at the start of the year) Economics this week Economics NVDA - Up, Up, UP - Goldman Target = $800 - NVIDIA surpassed Amazon (AMZN) in market value for a brief period on Monday More NVDA - Company is building a new business unit focused on designing bespoke chips for cloud computing firms and others, including advanced artificial intelligence (AI) processors, nine sources familiar with its plans told Reuters. - The dominant global designer and supplier of AI chips aims to capture a portion of an exploding market for custom AI chips and shield itself from the growing number of companies pursuing alternatives to its products. Altman (ChatGPT) - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is seeking trillions of dollars in investments to overhaul the global semiconductor industry - Altman has long talked of the supply and demand problem with AI chips - He's considering a project that would increase global chip-building capacity, - Altman could need to raise between $5 trillion and $7 trillion for the endeavor - Reportedly in talks with different investors, including the government of the United Arab Emirates. Waymo Cars Attacked - On Saturday night, a crowd surrounded a white sport utility vehicle that was moving along a street in the city's Chinatown district (San Fran) - A person jumped onto the hood of the Waymo vehicle and broke its windshield. Another person also jumped on the hood 30 seconds later as some in the crowd clapped in approval - Fireworks thrown in car and set on fire. - On previous occasions in San Francisco and Phoenix, Arizona, groups have disrupted the operations of self-driving vehicles, blocking their path, trying to enter the vehicles and jumping on their hoods Amazon - Bezos unloading shares - $2 billion last week - Plans to sell 50 million shares over the  next year or so Israel - Downgraded by Moody's

Big Week - AND HOW! Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%. Shakeup at Morgan Stanley Banking Sector Fears (NYCB) The latest Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  Big Week - AND HOW! - Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small (Regional Bank woes) --- AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%. - Shakeup at Morgan Stanley - Banking Sector Fears (NYCB) - AI induced euphoria - is that a thing? Market intoxicated on it. Market Update - Powell was Hawkish - Markets Didn't Care (past Wednesday) - HUGE Employment Surprise - Market Didn't Care (after 10 minutes) - META/Facebook Earning - Yes Markets cared - all day Friday - Undercurrent of something happening (Region  Bank breakdown - NYCB) - China comes out strong with market supportive measures  - market rallies 5% Employment Report - Much hotter than anticipated - Treasury Yields and the USD spiked - Unemployment rate at 3.7% (expected to tick up to 3.8% - Briefing.com: This report is not likely to persuade the FOMC to cut rates as soon, or as much, as the market had hoped. As a result, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), according to the CME FedWatch Tool. - markets were a bit flushed on the initial report but tossed it aside and preferred to focus on META earnings Rate Cut Odd for MARCH - As a result of the Fed meeting and employment report, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), SO REACHING - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that while the January job report was impressive on the surface, underlying details were not as strong. - “The headline number was almost breathtaking,” Goolsbee said in an interview on the “PBS NewsHour” program. - “If you peel back the onion a little bit, it’s not as strong as that headline number advertises … but it’s still very strong,” he said. - In particular, he noted that hours worked fell 0.2% last month despite the jump in net new jobs. Amazon - Blowout - Earnings per share: $1.00 vs. 80 cents expected by LSEG - Revenue: $170 billion vs. $166.2 billion expected - Amazon Web Services: $24.2 billion vs. $24.2 billion, according to StreetAccount - Advertising: $14.7 billion vs. $14.2 billion, according to StreetAccount - Amazon said first-quarter sales will be between $138 billion and $143.5 billion, representing growth of 8% to 13%. Analysts were expecting revenue of $142.1 billion, according to analysts. META - BLOW-OOOUUUUTTTT - Meta Platforms beats by $0.51, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; - FY24 total expense guidance unchanged at $94-$99 bln, - CapEx guidance of $30-$37 bln, up $2.0 bln at high end; - They stopped spending on META. - Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.50/share, also announces $50 bln increase to share repurchase program. - Stock up 21% Apple Earnings - headline: Apple beats by $0.08, beats on revs; iPhones and services beat; China revenue declines 13.1%  - Magic words: CEO Tim Cook thinks there is a huge opportunity to for Apple on AI, but he does not want to get ahead of things. - Apple reports Q1 iPhone revenue of $69.

HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter. China continues to try to save markets Push Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday. PCE - FED FAV - The Latest. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  Jury Duty? - Big Week for ECO - Jobs Report Friday - Penmanship - making a comeback? - Is this a Capitulation Moment - China? -- War Brewing - Dragging US into Mid-East Conflict? Market Update - HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter - China continues to try to save markets - Push Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday - PCE - FED FAV - The Latest PODCAST DEAL - Sirius XM Holdings Inc. has acquired certain exclusive rights to SmartLess, the hit podcast hosted by actors Will Arnett, Jason Bateman and Sean Hayes, as part of a larger deal between the satellite radio company and SmartLess Media. - The three-year accord is worth more than $100 million, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified. SUPER- Bowl - Tickets to attend the Super Bowl in Las Vegas — a rematch between the 2020 contenders — are the most expensive ever for the event, going for an average $9,815 each so far, according to reseller TickPick. - The price is 70% more than last year’s game, which was held in Arizona. The previous record of $7,046 was set in 2021 in Tampa, Florida, when the game was played at sharply reduced capacity Rate Hike Probabilities - First move for markets from Oct '23 was the HOPE and LOVE of Fed Rate Cuts to come - As soon as March - (The we got the AI 'rager' that helped support Bull markets) - - NOW, Rate CUT hopes fading - markets ignoring facts --- Rate Cut Chart Odds - Fading Rate Cut Odds Reporting this week: - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft --- Huge components for NAZ100 and S&P500 Microsoft - Microsoft was expected to report a 15.8% jump in quarterly revenue, its best growth in nearly two years, as rising adoption of its products infused with generative AI fuels demand for its cloud services. -- ACTUAL: ---- Microsoft's Q2 revenue was $62.02 billion, a 16% increase, surpassing the estimate of $61.14 billion. ----- Earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $2.93, beating the consensus by $0.16. -- Stock even A/H Google/Alphabet - GOOGL company achieved a YoY revenue increase of 13.5%, reaching $86.31 billion, surpassing expectations. - Google Advertising reported $65.52 billion in revenue, showing an 11.0% YoY growth but falling short of expecations. -- Stock Down 4% AH More Earnings - TSLA - Horrible! - Earnings per share: 71 cents, adjusted vs. 74 cents expected. - Revenue: $25.17 billion vs. $25.6 billion expected. - Operating margin for the quarter came in at 8.2%, down from the year-ago quarter's figure of 16% - Tesla said in its investor presentation that vehicle volume growth in 2024 "may be notably lower" than last year's growth rate as the company works toward launching its "next-generation vehicle" in Texas. - Stock down 14% on the news ---- Stock market cap still down 40% since purchase of Twitter in 2022 AMD - - Met expectations but guided DOWN - So much for the big rise based on NOTHING! - Stocks DOWN 10% Tech Layoffs - Silicon Valley’s tech companies are slashing headcount at a rapid pace. - Since the start of January, some 23,670 workers have been laid off from 85 tech companies, according to the website Layoffs.fyi. - Some are laying off staff in parts of the business to invest more heavily in developing AI products. China - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has said that investors will no longer be able to lend out shares for trading purpose...

Those margins - not a pretty look. Trouble in Airlines Space while the love for Apple remains. More Stimulus but hidden in the details. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  Trouble in Airlines Space - Apple Love Remains - More Stimulus - Hidden in the Details - BULL TAKE OFF - No Stopping Us Now - Right? (Overconfidence?) Market Update - Bitcoin - Sub $40k on Monday - Why? - Chatter IPO on the  way (again) - New Highs for markets - Pulled by a few stocks - And on The Margin - A Margin Crunch - Rates moving up - VIX moving down DONATIONS - HEY it is 2024! NEW HIGHS - A New Bull Market has just been declared. Out of the  BEAR as we eclipse the previous high set in 2022. Airlines - JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines on Friday said they are appealing a federal judge's ruling issued earlier this week that blocks the two carriers' planned merger on antitrust grounds. - JetBlue had planned to buy Spirit for $3.8 billion in a deal struck in the summer of 2022. A federal judge on Tuesday, however, barred that combination, saying it would eliminate the budget carrier and mean higher prices for cost-conscious consumers. - Spirit  drop 62% last week - trying to recover a bit - BUT, if Sprint fails - doesn't that mean that the elimination of a budget carrier could mean higher prices for cost conscious consumers? ---- They will appeal, give concessions and win. ---- Spirit up 90% since low last week Bitcoin Sinking - Bitcoin sub $40,000 on Monday as the sell-off continues - Blaming it on selling of the GrayScale and beig bought in NEW Sppot ETFs - Thought question: If Selling Apple in Fidelity and Buying in Schwab - does that impact share price? Banks Suing The Fed? - Big banks have hired one of the country’s top trial lawyers and are preparing to sue the Federal Reserve — a nearly unthinkable challenge — if sweeping new industry regulations aren’t watered down. - Eugene Scalia, the son of the former Supreme Court justice and a well-known conservative litigator, is quietly drawing up a lawsuit seeking to block the proposed rules on behalf of the Bank Policy Institute, a trade group that represents JPMorgan, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and others, people familiar with the matter said. - It would be the first time in recent memory that the industry has sued the Fed, and a departure from standard halls-of-power persuasion efforts that try to avoid antagonizing its chief regulator. More Airlines - The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recommended that airlines operating Boeing 737-900ER jets inspect door plugs to ensure that they are properly secured after some operators reported unspecified issues with bolts upon inspections. - Regulators have stepped up scrutiny on Boeing after a Jan. 5 mid-air panel blowout on an eight-week-old Alaska Airlines MAX 9 jet that left a gaping hole in the aircraft. Boeing has sought to contain the damage, appointing an independent advisor to examine quality control in its manufacturing processes while numerous planes remain grounded. - In its new "Safety Alert for Operators," the FAA said that some airlines had conducted additional inspections on the 737-900ER mid-exit door plugs and had noted "findings with bolts during the maintenance inspections." Apple - - Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab ended Samsung Electronics' 12-year run as the largest seller of smartphones in the world, after commanding a 20% market share in 2023, according to a report from International Data Corp. - Samsung ended the year with a 19.4% share, followed by China's Xiaomi, Oppo and Transsion,

- BIG News - Apple loses to.... - World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps AGAIN - let them eat stimulus! - Best of CES? - EVs getting some shade thrown - Bitcoin ETF approved PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - BIG News - Apple Loses to.... - World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps again - Best of CES? - EVs getting some shade thrown - Bitcoin ETF approved Market Update - Natural Gas price on the move - huge jump - 3 downgrades for Apple last week - Bank earnings - mixed, but could say disappoint - Another Stop-gap bill to AVERT a government shutdown Can You Believe this? - Microsoft ended Friday's U.S. trading session as the most valuable publicly traded company, surpassing Apple after briefly topping the iPhone maker during intraday trading on Thursday. - Shares of Microsoft climbed more than 3% for the week, bringing the company's market cap to $2.89 trillion, while Apple's stock dropped by over 3%, lowering its valuation to $2.87 trillion. More Apple - Apple said on Thursday that former Vice President Al Gore will retire from the company's board next month after serving as a director since 2003. - Other: 3 Downgrades last week! (Stock still up 2.5% for the week although down 3.5% for the year 2024 More Wealth News - Just in time for Davos - pick on the rich - LET THEM EAT STIMULUS! - The world's five richest men have more than doubled their vast wealth since 2020, according to an Oxfam report, as the charity calls for curbs on "corporate power." - The report found that the combined fortune of the world's wealthiest people — Tesla CEO Elon Musk, LVMH boss Bernard Arnault and family, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, and veteran investor Warren Buffett — has jumped from $405 billion in March 2020 to $869 billion in November 2023. - Seven of the world's ten biggest companies have a billionaire as their CEO or main shareholder, the report found. Meanwhile, the world's richest 1% of people own 43% of global financial assets, according to the research, such as publicly listed instruments like stocks and bonds, along with stakes in privately-held businesses. - "If current trends continue, the world will have its first trillionaire within a decade but poverty won't be eradicated for another 229 years," Oxfam said. Even MORE Davos - The global economy faces a year of subdued growth prospects and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical strife, tight financing conditions and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, a survey of top economists released on Monday found. - Conducted each year ahead of the World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos, the survey of 60-plus chief economists drawn globally from the private and public sectors attempts to sketch priorities for policymakers and business leaders. (meaningless) - Some 56% of those surveyed expect overall global economic conditions to weaken this year, with a high degree of regional divergence. While majorities saw moderate or stronger growth in China and the United States, there was broad consensus that Europe would muster only weak or very weak growth. - The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific was more positive, with very high majorities expecting at least moderate growth in 2024. - 70% see financial conditions loosening (rate cuts and stimulus) as inflation slows Speaking of Rate Cuts (NOT) - The European Central Bank may defy market expectations and hold off on starting interest rate cuts during the whole of 2024, the institution's Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Monday.

Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024! SECURE Act Benefits for 529 Plans China - turn around in gaming rule discussion Boeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - And we are back - Happy New year - Welcome to 2024 - Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024! - SECURE Act Benefits for 529 Plans - China - turn around in gaming rule discussion - Boeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts? Market Update - Worst start to the year since ... 2015 (Whatever that means) - Market continues to have little muscle memory (Still down for the YTD) - CES getting those AI juices flowing again - BITCOIN ETF - News OUT! WELL- HACKED - Changed - WOW!!! ** Start of year 2024 - Looking for you to write dome reviews on Spotify , Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts - Wherever - spread the word people! Start with this!!!!!!! -Bitcoin on the move - 13 companies filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF - Rumors that some decision will be made early this week - Bitcoin tops $47,000 on the news - May be sell the news moment.. ---- 4:15PM TODAY - UPDATE: Today the SEC grants approval for #Bitcoin ETFs for listing on all registered national securities exchanges. The approved Bitcoin ETFs will be subject to ongoing surveillance and compliance measures to ensure continued investor protection. (SEC Titter) --- 4:27PM Bitcoin down - explained as sell the news BUT- Gary Gensler private account:  @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products. ---- SO, was this a not approved or a not approved YET???? Podcasts Rule - Killing the Competition (or??) - Radio giant Audacy has filed for bankruptcy protection amid a slump in advertising revenue. - The Philadelphia-based company, which oversees major podcast and radio operations and has acquired CBS Radio, said it has filed a Chapter 11 petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas after a restructuring agreement with a majority of its debtholders. - The agreement will see the company cut roughly 80% of its nearly $2 billion in debt. No Ceiling - The U.S. federal government's total public debt has reached $34 trillion for the first time, the U.S. Treasury Department reported last week. - Each party is blaming the other - Biden plans to reduce U.S. deficits by $2.5 trillion over 10 years by increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy Americans and cutting spending on pharmaceuticals and tax breaks for oil companies. - Trump wants the tax cuts to be permanent. Bad Start - Traders hoping that a pan-markets year-end rally would pick up where it left off got the opposite on 2024’s first trading day, a session that featured one of the worst-ever concerted drops in stocks and bonds to start a year.| - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) each fell 0.6% Tuesday, the first time they’ve both slumped so much to start the year since the bond gauge began trading in 2002. --- First week was not plesant for most areas of the market - Looks like people were holding on to avoid paying taxes in 2023 (April 2024) ----- Then dumped Starbucks - Starbucks app: Coffee giant accused of rigging payments to the tune of nearly $900 million over 5 years - This is the probelm with gift cards and these plans - so much is forgotten about - “Starbucks rigs its payment platform so consumers are encouraged to leave unspent money on their cards and apps,” said Chris Carter, campaign manager for the group in a statement.

All sorts of good stuff in this episode. From M&A to the quick banking crisis of 2023. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!   DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Follow Ryan on Twitter  

Apple watch ban - stock unaffected. A surprise with housing prices. A grab-bag bull phrase being dusted off. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Slow volume - boring market (you know what they say) - China is testing some market moving ideas - New Year Coming - markets Closed Monday - Another GRAB-BAG Phase - Dusted off.... Market Update - The real Santa Claus rally - the final days - House prices - what? - Boosting Buybacks  - One Company - China wrecks markets - for a day Home Price Index - October S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4.9% vs 5.0% consensus - Prior reading was +3.9% Grab-Bag - Bull Phrase - Cash on The Sidelines - The stock market is set to see a significant boost next year, thanks to a record $6 trillion and a growing cash pile in money market funds - according to FundStrat -- (UBERBULL Shop) - - Fundstat's logic: If the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates next year, this would hold more true as the risk-free interest rate on money market funds will also fall. This would make holding cash in money market funds less appealing as compared to putting it in the stock market. China - Gamming - Latest: -- China approved 105 domestic games on Monday, the latest indication that Beijing is softening its stance after its move to tighten industry restrictions led to a $80 billion rout last week. --- The titles included those operated by Tencent Holdings Ltd. and NetEase Inc., China’s two leading game publishers that have been pummeled by Beijing’s new rules. Monday’s approvals show the Chinese authorities support the development of online gaming, an industry association said in a post on WeChat republished by the official Xinhua news agency. - What happened a few days earlier - - On Friday, Chinese officials announced new draft rules aimed at limiting how much gamers could spend and restricting rewards that encourage them to spend more time online. - The announcement was a surprise and ended up spooking investors and sending markets into a tailspin. - Games giant Tencent saw its share price drop as much as 16% while the stock of its rival NetEase tumbled a record 28%. Shares of the social-media service Bilibili, which is popular with gamers, tanked 14%. Consumer Sentiment! - December Consumer Confidence 110.7 vs. 104.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 101.0 from 102.0 - Look at this chart and look at a chart of equity markets - pretty much identical. Wealth Effect is real and will play a significant role in how inflation/disinflation/deflation plays out. Spending Report - Mastercard Spending Pulse reports sales increased 3.1% YoY during the holiday season (Nov 1 trhu Dec 24); NRF predicted spending would increase 3-4% in 2023 - Restaurants (+7.8%), Grocery (+2.1%), and Apparel (+2.4%) had the best performance. - Jewelry (-2.0%) and Electronics (-0.4%) were laggards. China Car Announcement - Nio launched the ET9 EV - The company also confirmed the launch of a low-priced brand called Alps. - Nio will focus on the European market in 2024. - High end is supposedly in competion with the Porche Panarama and the Maybach - The ET9 executive sedan, positioned in the same class as Mercedes Benz’s Maybach and Porsche’s Panamera series, is expected to start delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at an estimated price of 800,000 yuan (S$152,355), Apple Stops Selling Watch - Stock barley budges - Apple on Tuesday appealed a decision to ban imports of its watches based on a complaint from medical monitoring technology company Masimo, after President Joe Biden's administration declined to veto a government tribunal.

The train is leaving the station - get on or get run over. Inflation is turning and now there is what? Fed rally - just in time for Christmas. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024 - More layoffs - End pf year - bullish sentiment and candy cane dreams - AMAZING - NOW Deflation is starting to bubble up - Fed-Ex Earnings... Market Update - Data matters - but only bull case - Yields - next stop? What is it saying about the future economy? - Adobe M&A stopage - Homebuilders - hitting new highs - Hacking - another hit - Supply Chain Redux? Fed Rally - Then Chill - This is getting out of hand... - Just days after a Federal Reserve meeting that penciled in an ample course of interest rate cuts next year, which in turn unleashed a broad rally in financial markets, one of the U.S. central bank's top policymakers pushed back on the ebullience on Friday. - "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now," New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with CNBC.  (WHAT????) - When it comes to the question of lowering rates, "I just think it's just premature to be even thinking about that" as the central bank continues to mull whether monetary policy is in the right place to help guide inflation back to its 2% target, he said. DEFLATION concept entering the market - Deflation is happening on the "goods" side of the U.S. economy, or the tangible objects that Americans buy, economists said. - For one, a strong U.S. dollar makes imported goods cheaper. Some of those savings get passed on to consumers, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. ----- A strong dollar is a likely contributor to deflation in certain categories like household furniture and appliances, Zandi said. Additionally, weaker demand may be a factor: Households that spent liberally on home goods in the early days of Covid-19 lockdowns are likely no longer doing so, he added. --- Broadly, the pandemic snarled global supply chains, causing shortages that fueled big spikes in prices. Energy costs surged when Russia invaded Ukraine, pushing up transportation and other distribution costs. ------ Now, supply-chain disruptions are largely in the rearview mirror, economists said. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, for example, has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels from historic highs at the end of 2021. - Some prices, like those for airline tickets and eggs, are also falling back to earth after hitting record-high levels. The latter, for example, soared largely due to a historically deadly bout of avian flu among egg-laying hens. Egg and airline ticket prices are down about 22% and 12% in the past year, according to CPI data. Year Over Year November - Not Seasonally Adjusted - Does not include rents/housing. ( A big part of the the CPI index) Deflation - Food/Energy Deflation - All Items (X) Red Sea - War is hell - now ships diverted - Have to go around Cape Horn adding massive time for deliveries - Will this cause any price hikes? - Oil Prices? FedEx Earnings - FedEx shares tumbled 8% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the package-delivery giant lowered its revenue forecast as weaker demand hit sales. - The company said it expects a low-single-digit decline in revenue for the fiscal year, down from a previous forecast for flat sales year-over-year - less that analysts predicted. - It's the second consecutive quarter FedEx has lowered its sales outlook. - Meanwhile - Apple lowered its numbers for several quarters and the stock still rallies (Buybacks) Layoffs Auto - General Motors plans to lay off about 1,300 workers in Michigan starting early next year due to ve...

Up Up Up - Santa will be pleased. Diverging outcomes. Interesting M&A activity and a blast from the past. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024 - Deals - opened and closed - M&A - Two outcomes - same datapaoints - Diverging Outcomes - Caught Red handed - Guess the Bank (again) - Gamestop's new strategy Market Update - Bitcoin Update - Boom and Busting - Just as everyone getting back in - Big News for CRISPR - Big price too! - Gas prices -LOW - OIL - keeps going lower - VIX - 5-year LOW History: Jan. 5, 2022: The Dow hit its all-time high of 36,952.65. Today's Close: 36,577.94 SHAMELESS PLUGS - H&C/JCD VIX - Sub 13 print - - Lowest since 2018! - No Fear - no hedging DataPoints - Soft landing - not much different than a vibrant economy - How do yo have a vibrant economy when Fed trying to slow down? - Data supports hard and soft landing - Diverging outcomes - which is it? Caught AGAIN - Wells Fargo was snared in an industrywide probe into mortgage bankers' use of loan discounts last year, CNBC has learned.| - The discounts, known as pricing exceptions, are used by mortgage personnel to help secure deals in competitive markets. At Wells Fargo, for instance, bankers could request pricing exceptions that typically lowered a customer's APR by between 25 to 75 basis points. - The practice, used for decades across the home loan industry, has triggered regulators' interest in recent years over possible violations of U.S. fair lending laws. Black and female borrowers got fewer pricing exceptions than other customers, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has found. More Competition - AMD! - Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft said at an AMD investor event last week they will use AMD's newest AI chip, the Instinct MI300X. - If AMD's latest high-end chip is good enough for the technology companies and cloud service providers building and serving AI models when it starts shipping early next year, it could lower costs for developing AI models, and put competitive pressure on Nvidia' - NVDA slid for a hot second - then buying happened again.... - AMD stock up to $137 (about 10% from comments) Bitcoin - Bitcoin hit $44,000 last Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds. - Bitcoin down $4200 on this money... - Jamie Dimon thrashes out about crypto - ---"I've always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, et cetera," --- "If I was the government, I'd close it down," M&A - U.S. health insurer Cigna has ended its attempt to negotiate an acquisition of rival Humana after the pair failed to agree on price - Instead - Cigna announced plans to buy back $10 billion worth of shares - Shares rallied 12% on the news - HOW ABOUT LOWERING HEALTH INSURANCE COSTS??? More M&A - An investor group consisting of Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital has made a $5.8 billion offer to take department store chain Macy's private, according to a person familiar with the matter on Sunday. - Is this for real or just pump and dump stunt? - Stock is up 70% in last 30 days - you think anyone knew about this? - WHY would someone buy a dying department store? Real Estate? New Strategy - Ganestop - OH MY - In its quarterly report released last Wednesday night, GameStop announced two changes to its corporate investment plan: 1) company cash can now be used to buy equities instead of just short-term debt, 2) and that Cohen is in charge of the investments. Blast from the Past - Picard, is the lawyer working on collecting for Madoff claims

Everyone is bullish - that seems a bit overdone at this point. Tax Trap - Watch-out! Economic data remains strong - jobs data showing weakness (JOLTS) Bond yields sink - herd mentality and Fed bulls working it. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - So many bulls! Deafening.... (we know what that usually means..) - A new book for young investors - can we discuss or still a secret? - China - credit rating issue - My favorite charade,, scheme, scam of 2023 Market Update - Gold at all-time high! - Bitcoin Update - Moving - Alt assets picking up - good or bad? - Big money into Money markets - watch out for this trap Bitcoin - Bitcoin hit $44,000 on Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds. - Bitcoin is up 55% from the year's low of $26,533 on Oct. 11. - UP 165% YTD - Still way off record high of $69k - Nov 2021 Gold - Hitting ATH -- Reasons?? Risk -off or USD sinking? - Gold miners ETF still 10% below 2023 peak --- Time to buy? Rare Earth Metals - Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, cell phones and other electronics. - China began to rapidly expand in the industry starting during the 1980s and now controls 87% of global rare earths refining capacity - US spots in Alaska and other western states starting to look for ways to mine - in "clean" and efficient manner - FYI - RARE is not really rare - Considered RARE only due to difficulty in extraction process - These elements rarely exist in pure form; they are usually found within other minerals, making them costly to mine. Oil Prices - Now Sitting at $72 --- OPEC+ can't seem to agree and now concern demand waning CHINA - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded its outlook on China's government credit ratings to negative from stable - Moody's expects Beijing's support and possible bailouts for distressed local governments and state-owned enterprises to diminish China's fiscal, economic and institutional strength. - Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds, - Seems like this is going to be happening for a while - rolling downgrades of countries with excessive debt Canada - Greater Toronto Area home prices fell in November as higher borrowing costs crimped affordability, while the level of sales edged higher for the first time in six months - The seasonally adjusted average home price fell 2.2% in November from October to C$1,104,062 ($815,769), marking the fourth decline in the last five months. - New listings climbed 16.5% year-over-year but decelerating from the 38% pace of increase posted in October. Switzerland - A major Swiss bank admitted to conspiring with U.S. taxpayers and others to hide over $5.6 billion from the Internal Revenue Service - Banque Pictet, the private banking division of the 218-year-old Pictet Group, will pay about $122.9 million in restitution and penalties as part of an agreement with prosecutors - Where does that money go? - Between 2008 and 2014, the bank had 1,637 accounts on behalf of American clients, who collectively evaded approximately $50.6 million in U.S. taxes, the DOJ said. - The accounts themselves held more than $5.6 billion of the roughly $20 billion in total assets from U.S. taxpayers that the bank managed during the relevant period. ----- Does taxpayer have to pay anything? - Swiss banks are not so special anymore... VIX and Gamma - An epic rally in U.S. stocks has sent Wall Street's fear gauge to a post-pandemic low.

Heading toward the barn - traders looking for Santa to come though for December November was a pretty spectacular month for stocks... Oil - OPEC+ making some moves - crude prices diving. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing the Winner - CROC's and Entries for the CTP Cup 2023 - Thanksgiving is over - heading into the end of the year and investors appear excited - More strikes on  the horizon - Black Friday numbers are in - surprise - no surprise| - Temporary Cease Fire - Extended a few days - A Limerick Market Update - Short week - great month.... Best month in 2023 for most indices - AI got its grove back - Microsoft saved the day ! - -  VIX hits low since the pandemic -  KRI indicator +4 and holding with several clusters - Yields holding down - Housing numbers poor and economy slowly slowing - OIL! OPEC+ delays meeting - oil plunges on Wednesday... - Fed Parade of Talking heads is at it again.... Following: - Slap in Face? OpenAI not anticipated to offer MSFT a board seat on its new board, according to The Information - "It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns." Word Watch - Seeing this word starting to seep into all sorts of areas - "ELEVATED" - Schwab ad: "An elevated experience tailor made for trader minds" - Pinky up! December - Traders and Investors heading for home.... - Santa Rally is a possibility, especially if we see a quick dump to get rid of some of this froth.... - So much bad news is baked in and plenty of momentum - USD breaking below the 50-day - good for stocks  and commods VIX - FRIDAY - The VIX index of implied volatility on the S&P500 plunged to its lowest close since just before the COVID-19 shock unfolded in 2020 - an extreme some fear will inspire demand for options hedging and reversion back toward historic mean. It ticked back up to regain a foothold above 13 today. - This is interesting as other metrics are calling for extreme overheat - KRI +4 and holding with clusters (+5 or +6 is very concerning) - S&P 500, NASDAQ all high (HIGH) levels of RSI - Spearman +97 (HIGH) ----- McClellan +137 (complex above zero line) Markets Love it! - Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) in Q&A says if inflation continues to fall for several more months, the policy rate could be lowered; if there is a consistent decline in inflation, no reason for rates to remain really high Black Friday Update - Cut and paste every year - US online revenue up 7.5% from last year: Adobe Analytics  (NOTE: Nominal - not adjusted for inflation) - Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US, Adobe Analytics reported, offering a positive sign for retailers facing lackluster sales forecasts for the holiday season. - Demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment helped boost the day’s online sales by 7.5% compared with last year. - Consumers extended their budgets by leaning on buy-now, pay-later options, which climbed by 72% from the week before Thanksgiving (AFRM stock?) --- On the other hand: US Black Friday sales rise 2.5%  (less than anticipated) according to Mastercard and  many looking for bargains - E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year as consumers shopped for deals online, while in-store sales increased by 1.1%, MasterCard Spendingpulse said. Bank Closures  (JCD) - Big banks like PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase filed for closing several of their branches in multiple states last week amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns over the past years. - Altogether, banks filed for shutting down 64 branches.

AI technology in the hot seat. Apple gives in to pressure on messaging Short week - plenty of action. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - CROCs CTP is almost over - 4 days until end... Then December starts the CTP CUP 2024! - - Back from an RCL cruise- my, have things  changed -  Market starting to overheat (KRI +5) - End of Year - Santa Claus Rally - on schedule - PSI - Markets Closed Thursday and after 1pm Friday - Big doings in Crypto World - Pied Pipers (Binance now in hot water) Market Update - WEIRD Action - in the AI Space - Fire, Quit, Oust and then Hire - USD continues to fall - VIX has a 13 handle - BIG news - NVDA earnings What in the? - Sam Altman pushed out over the weekend.... --- Hair on FIRE in Silicon Valley - - Weekend scramble - MSFT picks up Altman to hear AI Unit - Hundreds of OpenAI employees have signed a letter demanding the board resign or face an employee exodus to Sam Altman’s new venture at Microsoft “eminently.” - What is going on? MORE OpenAI - OpenAI named ex-Twitch boss Emmett Shear as interim CEO - Commercialization of product seems to be at the heart of the matter - Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella said in posts on X that Altman would become CEO of a new research group inside the software maker, along with other departing OpenAI colleagues such as outgoing President Greg Brockman who quit following Altman's ouster. --- Was there a deeper and darker plan here? Hmmm- This sounds Off - OpenAI customers are looking for the exits, signaling a possible exodus of business that could devastate the startup. - More than 100 OpenAI customers contacted OpenAI competitor Anthropic over the weekend, a startup that has raised billions from both Amazon and Google in recent months, according to someone familiar with the situation. - Sounds like companies trying to create a corpse and pick on  its remains or manufactroversy - A manufactured controversy is a contrived disagreement, typically motivated by profit or ideology, designed to create public confusion concerning an issue about which there is no substantial academic dispute. This concept has also been referred to as manufactured uncertainty.  BitCoin ETF - I was interviewed about this very topic last week by Paul Barron (he intimated I was a boomer - look up the view) - The US Securities and Exchange Commission has deferred making a decision again on whether to approve the first US exchange-traded fund that invests directly in Bitcoin. - The primary US securities regulator deferred on filings from Franklin and Globe X, according to documents Friday. The deferrals come after delays for other filers because both companies had put More Crypto Crap - Changpeng “CZ” Zhao is stepping down as CEO of Binance as part of a major $4 billion settlement between the Department of Justice and the cryptocurrency exchange he founded, according to sources close to the discussions with the agency. - The settlement will be with the DOJ and Commodities Futures Trading Commission; the Securities and Exchange Commission is not participating. - As part of the settlement, Zhao will also plead guilty to anti-money laundering charges brought by the Department of Justice. He is scheduled to enter the plea in federal court in Seattle on Tuesday afternoon, the Wall Street Journal reported. - Binance, the DOJ, CFTC, and SEC had not replied to requests for comment at the time of publication. - The SEC charged Binance, and its founder CZ, in June with operating an unregistered exchange and misleading investors by using a Switzerland-based fund Sigma Chain, which was also owned by CZ,

Only days until money runs out - will the government shot-down? Markets on the herky-jerky, thanks to the Fed and Mr. Powell. Major retail earnings out this week - winners and losers. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - 4-days until shut- down / anyone  care? (Shut up about shut-down already - Moody's angry - Moves US rating outlook - Croc's CTP Still Open of Entries| - Thanksgiving - What are we doing - menu items! - BOOM!  CPI dips a bit ad market RAMP (KRE up 7% IWM up 5%+) Market Update - Herky Jerky - Thanks to Fed - Big names continue to push up index values - KRI +2 Slight Overheating - Retailers earnings this week, Walmart, Target Etc -- Consumers in the spotlight Moody's - Moody's on Friday changed the outlook on the government of United States of America's ratings to "negative" from "stable". - The rating agency said it expects United States' fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability. - Moody's affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at "Aaa". - Another wake up call to the administration/govy of US to get their shot together. Fed - Powell was in push-0back mode on Thursday on a speech that he clearly stated that there is probably more work to be done to conquer inflation - "If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so," Powell cautioned a market still betting both that rate hikes are done and that three cuts are coming next year, starting as soon as June. - Same day as the Bond market glitch, which as problematic - Not to worry, by Firiday no-one believed Powell an ran markets up hard (one of the best days for NAZ100 in 2023 Consumers - The consumer took a spending break ahead of the holiday season, with October retail sales, excluding autos and gas, falling by 0.08%, and core retail, which also removes restaurants, declining by 0.03% (CNBC Monitor) - The October data showed weakness in gas station sales, electronics and appliances and furniture and home stores. There was strength in sporting goods and hobby stores and non-store retails, or internet sales, along with health and personal care. Ransonware Attack - Biggest bank - Could this be the reason Treasury auction last Thursday was so weak (smacking down markets) - Sources told Bloomberg that ICBC Financial Services, a U.S. subsidiary of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, relied on the offline system to process trades of U.S. Treasuries after it was hit by a ransomware attack on Wednesday. - It could take days to reconnect ICBC to the electronic settlement system, Reuters reported. - Analysts say the attack, which disrupted the U.S. Treasury market on Thursday, was likely the work of LockBit, a Russia-linked criminal gang that was also accused of hacking Boeing earlier this year. Today, the group claimed responsibility in messages to reporters. Planes! - Emirates Airline on Monday announced an order for 95 Boeing aircraft at a value of $52 billion, kicking off the first major deal of the 2023 Dubai Airshow. - The state-owned flagship Dubai carrier, a subsidiary of Emirates Group, is ordering 55 additional Boeing 777-9s and 35 of its 777-8s, bringing the airline's total orders for the 777X widebody jets to 205 units. It is also updating its order of Boeing 787 Dreamliners from 30 to 35, comprised of 15 787-10s and 20 787-8s. - Being up 3% on the news Interesting... - Exxon aims to become a top lithium producer for electric vehicles with Arkansas drill operation - Exxon earlier this year purchased 120,000 acres of a geological site in southern Arkansas called the Smackover Formation that is rich in lithium.

Markets on fire - is it for real? Announcing a new Closest to the Pin! Household debt update - market thoughts and more... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Following up on last week's data deluge - Wondering - was it a DCB or a BMR (Dead Cat Bounce - Bull Market Rally) - WeWork is now WeBroke - 70 hour workweek? - GUILTY -Another Shutdown countdown Market Update - Household Debt reaches milestone - South Korea "leveling the playing field" - Best week of 2023 - Apple Earnings (Does anyone care?) - Microsoft - Big Move Headline - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on track for their longest streak of gains in two years, as a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields buoyed megacap growth stocks and investors sought more clarity on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. - Best week of 2023 - NASDAQ up 6%! Microsoft - Big Move! - OpenAI and other AI has been good tailwind for the company - Stock closing in on ATH -- H&C Clients own the stock MSFT CHART FOLLOW UP : What to Expect from the Data Deluge - ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last - Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady) - ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction) - FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change) - (Add in Treasury  issuance needed to make up deficit and  Apple earnings) ----- Result? Pretty much inline - Fed said one thing: Risk balanced about doing too much or too little and market went bananas --------Apple - Not impressive and outlook for this coming quarter not so good - but stock moves higher Countdown - November 17th is the end of the short-term budget extension Apple Earnings - EPS: $1.46 per share vs. $1.39 per share expected - Revenue: $89.5 billion vs. $89.28 billion expected - iPhone revenue: $43.81 billion vs. $43.81 billion expected - Mac revenue: $7.61 billion vs. $8.63 billion expected  - iPad revenue: $6.44 billion vs. $6.07 billion expected - Wearables revenue: $9.32 billion vs. $9.43 billion expected - Services revenue: $22.31 billion vs $21.35 billion expected - Gross margin: 45.2% vs. 44.5% expected - - Outlook - Not Great - and blamed one  less week in the 4th quarter on outlook -  - - Stock Down initially then rose with  market Skinny Drugs - Novo Nordisk said on Thursday it will supply "significantly" more doses of Wegovy in the U.S. next year, even as it cautioned shortages of the weight-loss injection would continue in the short to medium term. - The Danish drugmaker, which this year overtook LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company, posted record operating profit and sales for the third quarter, underscoring the phenomenal success of Wegovy so far. -"Specifically on the U.S. market, we'll be supplying significantly more in 2024 compared to what we are in 2023," Novo's CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen said in an interview. - H&C clients own NVO for past several months More Drugs - - Moderna said its 2023 sales would only hit the low end of its $6 billion to $8 billion forecast, reflecting weaker demand for COVID-19 vaccines, and its shares slumped 8%. - The vaccine maker also pushed back to 2025 - Stock down 59% YTD Household Debt - "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023, to $17.29 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed's nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. - Mortgage balances rose by $126 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $12.14 trillion at the end of September. - Credit card balances increased by $48 billion ...

Apple earnings are this week, along with a Fed rate decision, Treasury supply and  the Employment report. A deluge of data over the next few days. War time markets - skittish and on edge. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - End of Earnings Season - Droop - Big Week - Treasury $, Apple Earnings, Fed Rate Decision and BLS Employment - All of a sudden - export bans may hurt chip companies (after denying any material impact) -Big prediction on oil prices (but market thinks otherwise) ------ Oil signalling less concern - EV's all of a sudden a cold shoulder Market Update - Apple News - Weird time of day (8pm Monday) - Biden AI Executive Order - May hit some stocks - Strikes just about over in Car Country - big costs - Data deluge this week - expect investors to be on edge OIL Prediction - World bank out with prediction - Worst case scenario, if war widens could result in increased food prices worldwide - If no expansion - oil will average $81 next year - Medium disruption - prices up 35% - Large disruption - prices could go up 50-75% Market Technical View - Defined Channel - DOWN MARKET TREND What to Expect from the Data Deluge - ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last - Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady) - ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction) - FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change) - (Add in Treadury  issuance needed to make up deficit and  Apple earnings) Ganging up on Yellen - Several critical comments about Yellen's term as Treasury Secratary and Fed Chair --- Could have issued and locked in VERY cheap rates for long-term (50/00 yer bonds?) ----- Idea is sound, but there are other  considerations that could have been problematic Apple Update - Apple on Monday (at 8PM ET) announced a new MacBook Pro lineup featuring the all-new family of M3 chips: M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max. With a next-generation GPU architecture and a faster CPU, the M3 family brings even more performance and remarkable new capabilities to MacBook Pro. - The new 14?inch MacBook Pro with M3 is not only great for everyday tasks, but also delivers phenomenal sustained performance in pro apps and games. Perfect for aspiring creatives, students, and entrepreneurs, it now starts at $1,599. - The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Pro provides even greater performance and additional unified memory support, enabling more demanding workflows for users like coders, creatives, and researchers. - The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Max delivers performance and capabilities that push the limits of computing. - basically - faster chips, new finish to case (black ) - Apple also cut the price of its entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro, from at least $1999 to $1599, although it gets a less powerful M3 chip, instead of the "Pro"-level chip on last year's model. - Note - 3 days before earnings as the Mac sales have been an issue in a decline sales environment (3 consecutive YOY declines) Follow Up - Florida Real Estate - Due to the Sufside building collapse, new laws for reserve set-asides. --- This is on top of the added costs for HOA and COA insurance increaes - “People are going to be losing their homes. Foreclosures are increasing,” warned Broward County Commissioner Mark Bogen. “As it looks right now, there are going to be so many people unable to live in their homes…. This is going to really be a crisis in our state.” - DECADES - condo associations did not put aside enough $ for future repairs, now new law could require rainy day funds ---- (Ultimately this will be retracted if fully implemented as condo prices will crash) - Not limited to Florida Executive Order

Tech earnings are in the spotlight. Fed blackout period on until the next rate decision- coming up. Shutdown - STILL LOOMING! The fishing trip of a lifetime ! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Change of tune   .. inflation is old news - Big tech moving markets - earnings out - AI now to blame for higher costs (lower earnings) - In the heart of earnings season Market Update - Fed holding on to outlook - Worries bout default and no speaker of the house - Earnings continue to confuse as no absolute trend Guatemala - wow epic fishing adventure (just got in 2 hours ago) - 3 days of once in a lifetime fishing - Sailfish, Dorado, YellowFin Tuna (1000's of lbs caught over 3 days) - Spinner Dolphin (porpoise) everywhere November 15th Webinar  "2024 - What's in Store?  Register for the November 15th, 2024 Webinar Back on the attack - A bipartisan group of 33 attorneys general is suing Meta over addictive features aimed at kids and teens, according to a complaint filed Tuesday in a federal court in California. The support from so many state AGs of different political backgrounds indicates a significant legal challenge to Meta's business. - The federal suit also accuses Meta of violating the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) by collecting personal data on users under 13 without parental consent. - The states are seeking an end to what they see as Meta's harmful practices, as well as penalties and restitution. JP Morgan's Dimon -JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the fact that central banks got financial forecasting “100% dead wrong” about 18 months ago should prompt some humility about the outlook for next year. -Speaking on a panel at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dimon voiced doubts that central banks and governments around the world could manage the economic fallout from rising inflation and slowing global growth. M&A -Chevron (CVX.N) agreed to buy U.S. rival Hess (HES.N) for $53 billion in stock in a deal that reflects top U.S. energy companies drive for oil and gas assets in a world seeking lower-risk future fossil supplies and higher shareholder returns. - We've got too many CEOs per BOE (barrels of oil equivalent), so consolidation is natural," said Chevron Chief Executive Michael Wirth, adding the world could expect to see other deals. Ackman's Change  of Tune - Ackman’s move to exit his short against the 30-year Treasury could be a sign that his main fear is shifting from an overheated economy featuring higher interest rates and inflation to a slowing economy that could fall into recession amid geopolitical risks -   The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests,” Ackman wrote in a Monday post on X, formerly Twitter, adding that “there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates.” - Remember when he gave the dire warning during COVID   "HELL IS COMING" Stepping it up -The White House on Monday said Iran was in some cases "actively facilitating" rocket and drone attacks by Iranian-backed proxy groups on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria, and President Biden has directed the Department of Defense to brace for more and respond appropriately. - No end in sight - Lot's of discussion how that could actually help to tamp down inflation Davos of the Desert - The annual event is typically used by attendees as an opportunity to build relationships with some of Saudi Arabia's biggest companies and its $778-billion sovereign wealth fund, drawn by the promise of deals as the kingdom embarks on an ambitious reform plan to wean its economy off oil.

More War? More Money? Bond yields surged on latest PPI and CPI Earnings in the spotlight - So far - so good. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Better than expected - again... - More earnings coming this week - (TSLA, BAC, NFLX) - Banks in the spotlight - WAR - seems as if War playbook needs to be brought out and dusted off - Swifty's buy up movie tickets - MORE STRIKES! Market Update - Market in downtrend to consolidating ahead of news - Most markets are looking past the Israel war/issues - Big concern that this will spread and oil prices will keep rising -  War is good? $$$ and maybe the final straw that the Fed is looking at and saying.... Maybe a pause is warranted. November 15th Webinar  "2024 - What's in Store? Israel/Middle East - Does not appear to be an easy way out of this - Israel stock market not ding well - ETF (EIS) down 11% since this all began - US military selects 2,000 troops to prepare for a potential deployment to support Israel, but are not intended for combat, according to WSJ Tesla Earnings Outlook -  Reports Wednesday 10/18 - Annual goal 1.8 million delivered - Margins expected to be at 4-year low of 18.1% (some think could drop below 15%) - FactSet EPS consensus: 0.73 - FactSet Rev consensus: 24.26 bln Tesla Profitibility Trend Stock News - Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech — Shares of Pfizer dropped 1.3% Monday after the company slashed its full-year revenue guidance by $9 billion, noting waning demand for its Covid treatment and vaccine. - Rite-Aid declares bankruptcy (Chapter 11) - LuluLemon - Stock being added to the SP500  (Stock up to to 52 week high) (Taking place of Activision Blizzard - Schwab beat on earnings, a bit light on Revenue - stock initially down, but better than feared - Ferrari has started to accept payment in cryptocurrency for its luxury sports cars in the U.S. and will extend the scheme to Europe following requests from its wealthy customers (remember Tesla accepted for a while then halted program due to environmental concerns) - Mictosoft - Activision Blizzard takeover has been approved by UK regulators... Clearing way for deal to close Other Earnings - BAC Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.90 per share, $0.07 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.83; revenues rose 2.8% year/year to $25.2 bln vs the $25.13 bln FactSet Consensus. - - - - -  -Noninterest expense of $15.8B in 3Q23 increased $0.5B, or 3%, vs. 3Q22, driven by increased investments in the franchise across people and technology, as well as higher FDIC expense from the increased assessment on banks announced in 2022. - - - - - - - Net interest income (NII) up $614 million, or 4%, to $14.4 billion ($14.5 billion FTE)(B) , driven primarily by benefits from higher interest rates and loan growth.. - - - -  - - -Provision for credit losses of $1.2 billion increased $336 million. China - China is considering creating a state-backed stabilization fund to shore up confidence in its equity markets - What does that mean? ---- Fund with lots of money from the state to buy stocks when they are down. The ultimate bailout for investors ---- News out that  State-owned banks are buying state buying other state owned bank shares - that is something special Economics - PPI and CPI both came in hotter than expected this month - Expected and unexpected - Bonds yields rallied initially then hit some technical resistance - - Rate hike expectations ticked up, then moved back as concern over Middle-Eat conflict grows Social Security COLA - 3.2% increase for 2024 for COLA - 8.7% for 2023 - 5.9% for 2022 - - - 18.9% increase in over 3 years!

Jobs report - a blowout. Build the Wall (again). Short squeeze - that was something. What other surprises can the market ignore? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ROFL - Experts have no idea - Strikes still coming - Virginia is cold - Building a Wall! - Announcing the Winner of the CTP for NVDA Market Update - Employment Report Hot - Markets cave and then..... - Next up on list of surprses - Israel conflict (odd market action - but explainable) - Not a surprise - Fed gang talks down rate hike - Once again - entering earnings season - Even more potential strikes JOBS - U.S. employment increased by the most in eight months in September as hiring rose broadly, pointing to persistent labor market strength that could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to raise interest rates again, though wage growth is slowing. - The larger-than-expected surge in nonfarm payrolls last month and sharp upward revisions to July and August's jobs counts reported by the Labor Department in its closely watched employment report on Friday cemented expectations that economic activity accelerated in the third quarter. - Bond yields initially surged, then came back a bit - for whatever reason stocks surged late morning into the end of the day - -  Bond yields came in a bit, but weird situation - still elevated. Looked like a short-cover extraordinaire initially ---- Here is other side of the thinking (bull camp (just keep investing)  - "With bond yields soaring, the dollar strengthening, and equity market volatility increasing there is a renewed tightening of financial conditions that does some of the work for the Fed, so it's not a done deal the Fed hikes rates again," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. ----------The broad increase in payrolls was led by the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 96,000 jobs. Restaurants and bars dominated, with 61,000 positions created, returning employment in the sector back to its pre-pandemic level. Strike is On - Tens of thousands of nurses and other healthcare workers launched a planned three-day strike at Kaiser Permanente facilities across the U.S. on Wednesday, after contract talks failed to meet the union deadline for reaching a settlement. - Only going to get worse - MORE-->  Pharmacy employees at some U.S. Walgreens stores, including pharmacists, technicians and support staff, plan a walkout this week - between Monday and Wednesday - The walkout is in response to what pharmacy employees call burdensome prescription and vaccination expectations placed on pharmacists, the report said. Tesla - Needs to be in the news everyday - clearly this is a general plan by management - Drops prices again after lower unit deliveries - stock ignores the reality - Something weird with the stock recently...Way too much optimism (either manipulation/inside buying/something else?) War - Israel and ... - Big horrible situation in the Mid-East - Oil surges on conflict - Gaza strip cuttoff - ground offensive about to begin - Quite the social media war going on - misinformation on parade ---- Sunday futures get knocked then markets  rally on Monday (see below) Fed - Not Surprising - Top ranking Federal Reserve officials indicated Monday that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could steer the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate and substitute the work done by financial markets for formal monetary policy moves by the central bank. - "We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough,

Yields screaming higher. Big week for economic news that may flip the script. It is official - correction in many sectors and major indices. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from Barbados - Diving good and bad ---ROTI! -- Space Debris - fines being issued - Politicians on trial - Japan car deal - stopped - House Speaker Kevin McCarthy ? Market Update - 10Yr Yield approaching 4.5%   4.8%!!! - 30 Year was 4.65% Friday - now 4.94% - Friday Jobs number important - JOLTS was much stronger than expected today - Ugly market conditions - appears to be The TTBOWTBW coming soon. - UPDATE- Last week: Oversold reading - switched the short small-caps today This week: Closed position after failure to launch DUMB Stuff - Inflation is not some uncontrollable item that we are all victims of. We help to perpetuate inflationary trnds by paying up the prices and spend, spend, spend. If we look at strikes - for more $$ due to cost of living, that is ass-backwards. JCD: Bring Back HUAC? Space Junk - Dish Network Corp. was fined $150,000 by US regulators for leaving a retired satellite parked in the wrong place in space, reflecting official concern over the growing amount of debris orbiting Earth and the potential for mishaps. - “This is a breakthrough settlement, making very clear the FCC has strong enforcement authority and capability to enforce its vitally important space debris rules,” Loyaan A. Egal, the agency’s enforcement bureau chief, said in a statement. - The FCC says it has applications pending for more than 56,000 satellites. - The number of satellites has reached almost 9,000, compared with roughly 2,000 less than five years ago, according to Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at Harvard University. - SPACEX accounts for 4,800 of the total Political Funhouse - Donald Trump on trial in NY (Civil) ---- Outcome could be devastating for his business - Hunter Biden up on gun charges --- President Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden is expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday to lying about his drug use while buying a handgun - Both families need to get in the White House badly so that they will be able to issue pardons. The Issue... - Yields rising...Long-Bond getting hammered - Markets now spooked - Fed hawkish not helping - Govy Shutdown not helping - TLT down 17% in 3 months Long Bond ETF Bond Vigilantes - Benchmark US yields jumped to the highest levels in 16 years Monday, extending an uptrend that began in May. - The latest surge shows Treasuries are detached from their fundamental drivers, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. - The move shows rising alarm at what fiscal policymakers are doing, economist Ed Yardeni says. - The slide in Treasuries has been excessive given recent economic data and Federal Reserve policy, suggesting it’s instead being driven by fears over the swelling US deficit IPO Debacle - Instacart weakness continues as shares are now trading 36% below its IPO opening price of $42; slowing growth and a full valuation are primary culprits for the selloff - What about ARM - about 0% below opening day IPO price - Birkenstock - newest IPO that is being discussed Japan Putting Hammer Down - Japan's move to bar most used-car sales to Russia slammed the brakes on a trade nearing $2 billion annually that had boomed in the shadow of sanctions over Ukraine elsewhere - In early August, Japan's government banned exports of all but subcompact cars to Russia, cutting off a lucrative backchannel in trade in used Toyotas, Hondas and Nissans for a network of brokers and smaller ports - While wiping out Russia's biggest source of used cars,

Markets are pissed - and they have every right to be as Powell dumps markets. Seasonal patters playing out. Could strikes be the next market breaking catalyst? Listen in to what China is doing with US Bonds - not good PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - The Wait for the Fed is over - and the market is pissed - Starting t wonder if there  is another banking scare coming (rate rocketing higher) - We still selling Rosh Hashana  and Buying Yom Kippur? - Weight loss drugs worrying different market segments - Wondering - Next Catalyst for market - Unions Strike Trend? - PSA about COVID Season Market Update - 10Yr Yield approaching 4.5% - Oil taps $92 then comes in to $90 - Bad week for markets - we have some stats - Cisco M&A - Splunk - Oversold reading - switched the short small-caps today Market Commentary The major indices registered sizable declines last week. - Softness in mega caps had a disproportionate influence on index performance, but there was no effort to rotate anywhere else so many stocks came along for the downside ride. -  All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the red last week. ----- - - - - - The consumer discretionary (-6.4%), real estate (-5.4%), and materials (-3.7%) were the top laggards while the health care sector (-1.2%) saw the slimmest loss. - The catalyst for the weakness was another big jump in Treasury yields. ----- - - - The 2-yr note yield climbed eight basis points last week to 5.12%. --- - -The 10-yr note yield climbed 12 basis points last week to 4.44%. - - - - -  -Including lastweek's move, the 10-yr note yield is up 35 basis points this month. **** Those moves were largely in response to the Fed's hawkish pause on Wednesday. Fed Update Meeting (Briefing.com) - As expected, the FOMC voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. - - - The median fed funds rate estimate for 2023 was unchanged at 5.6% - - - BUT the median estimate for 2024 was 5.1%, versus 4.6% in June. This suggests officials are still leaning in favor of one more rate hike this year it also tells us that there is an expectation that rates will come down by only 50 basis points in 2024, as opposed to 100 basis points when estimates were provided in June. - - - - -The longer-run fed funds rate estimate was maintained at 2.5%, leaving one to infer that the Fed is going to stay committed to its 2.0% inflation target. Other Central Banks - Japan's central bank maintained its ultra-loose policy and left rates unchanged last Friday, mindful of the "extremely high uncertainties" on the growth outlook domestically and globally. - Yen dropped hard on the  news (weakening) - In a policy statement after its September policy meeting, the Bank of Japan said it would maintain short-term interest rates at -0.1%, and cap the 10-year Japanese government bond yield around zero. - Very dovish for Japanese rates (in a world that everything else is inflating) More Other Central Banks - The Bank of England halted its long run of interest rate increases on Thursday as the British economy slowed, but it said it was not taking a recent fall in inflation for granted. - A day after a surprise slowing in Britain's fast pace of price growth, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%. - Are they really using data that is real-time? Stupid as economy moves slowly - they are nuts! China Dropping Treasury Holdings - China has been reducing its US Treasury holding for about 10 years now - China, presumably, drew some conclusions from the Russia invasion of Ukraine (freezing of assets)  and recognized the same cou...

A new Closest to the Pin announced. UAW strike lingers... Fed rate decision ahead. Consumers are feeling the pinch. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing a NEW Closest to The Pin this week - Plenty of interest in new legislation up for vote - Retail worried about holiday season - hiring trends - Clorox Update - Waiting  and Waiting for Fed decision - markets on hold... Market Update - Ugly and the the week - markets spooked on inflation and eco - Wednesday is the day - Fed rate decision meeting - UAW Strike - EU Leaking proof it's decisions - Oil prices starting to pinch Commentary - Overall - markets are in a consolidation mode, eco is relatively strong with a few dispensed pockets of weakness. - Consumers are starting to feel the pinch - Several bears have finally capitulated - that is a concern (another one of those one sided things that is never discussed - when bulls capitulate it is good - when bears capitulate - it is good)" - Oil prices - that is a concern - Yields still rising - China may be bottoming - that is good sign - Inflation - slowing down, but Fed may have more work to do - Earnings outlook - hard to image much better from here - what is important is the forward multiple Fed Heads - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote on Saturday, while also forecasting the U.S. central bank would lift its economic growth projections when policymakers gather next week. - "On November, we think that further labor market rebalancing, better news on inflation, and the likely upcoming Q4 growth pothole will convince more participants that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will," the investment bank's strategists wrote in a report. - Current market bet s that there will be no hike this meeting - but potential for hike (0.25%) next meeting Some Legislative Stuff MJ Bill - The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled marijuana banking legislation for a vote on Sept. 27, a much-anticipated move that would advance one of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s top priorities to the Senate floor. - The bipartisan SAFE Banking Act sponsored by Democrat Jeff Merkley of Oregon has bipartisan support, including from the lead Republican sponsor, Steve Daines of Montana, who heads his party’s campaign committee. - Backers of the legislation have been increasingly optimistic they will easily exceed the 60 votes needed - If signed into law, the SAFE Banking Act would enable cannabis-related businesses (CRBs) to transact business by means other than cash Credit Card Legislation - Credit Card Competition Act of 2023 - It would require the largest credit-card issuing financial institutions in the country—those with assets over $100 billion–to enable at least two credit card networks to be used on their credit cards instead of just one, and at least one of those networks must be a network other than the Visa/Mastercard duopoly. - There is concern that this bill will potentially reduce airline (and other) reward points as competition will drive transaction fee prices down and need to drop incentive programs --- - HEADLINES on socialize media and internet about how this bill kills reward programs - however, does not seem that is a true statement - Similar legislation failed to pass in 2022 Oil - Recap of our discussion last week - Oil looks like destined to keep moving to $92 - then what? - Currently trading at $91 - A move above $92 would put $95 in play - as long as OPEC+ keeps with voluntary production cuts Retail Confidence

All the rage - let's test our testosterone - then shave our legs! China has figured it out....How to hurt the USA. Elon - listening in and shutting down? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  Big week - Inflation eyed - 10-year near 4.3% - One European country looks the worst - one recession - Biden  - 5-day world tour - Soft landing - everyone talking about it - Oh, Elon Market Update - Not such a great month so far.... - China  starting to panic (that may be good) -- 2 IPOs on Tap - M&A - One food deal announced - Apple .... More China restrictions (interesting) Happy New Year - Rosh Hashana Friday night. Tesla Upgrade - Tesla Inc.’s Dojo supercomputer may add as much as $500 billion to the company’s market value through faster adoption of robotaxis and network services, according to Morgan Stanley. - Dojo can open up “new addressable markets,” just like AWS did for Amazon.com Inc., analysts led by Adam Jonas wrote in a note, upgrading the stock to overweight from equal-weight and raising its 12-month price target to a Street-high $400 per share from $250. - Adam Jonas had a $250 price for Tesla for a while and was not really positive on  the shares. But, many say he likes headlines, so this is a perfect way to play it. - Jonas cut his price and overall recommendation  in June - Tesla shares up 10% on this upgrade (BTW, Morgan is one of Elon Musk's key advisory firms - so there is that) China - Freaking out? - China's financial regulator on Sunday reduced the risk weighting it attaches to insurance companies' holdings of blue-chip shares and tech stocks, encouraging them to invest more in the country's lagging stock market. - The National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR)said on its website that the risk weighting for CSI300 Index constituents would be reduced to 0.3 from 0.35, while that for stocks listed on Shanghai's tech-focused STAR Market would be cut to 0.4, from 0.45. - A lower risk weighting frees up more capital for insurers to invest. - It also set a relatively low risk weighting for private equity investments in China's strategic and emerging sectors. More China - China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan, the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China said on Monday, drawing a contrast with Democratic President Joe Biden, who said it made it less likely. - So this has to be a dividing line as well? Biden on Sunday called China's econ Yen - Japan - In a weekend interview, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could end its 7-year-old negative interest rate policy when achievement of its 2% inflation target is in sight - suggesting the BOJ is considering official interest rate hikes as well as an early end its bond-buying, yield cap policy. - The comments seemed to catch markets off guard, sending the 10-year Japanese government bond yield up more than 5 basis points to a 9-year high above 0.7%. The yen surged 1% against the dollar, knocking the U.S. currency back more generally on the foreign exchange markets. Tech - Qualcomm said Monday that it will supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026. - Wall Street analysts and Qualcomm officials had previously said they expected Apple to use an internally developed 5G modem starting in 2024. - The continued sales to Apple will boost Qualcomm's handsets business, which reported $5.26 billion in sales in the quarter ended in June, and could soften the blow of potentially losing a critical customer. About 21% of Qualcomm's fiscal 2022 revenue of $44.2 billion came from Apple,

China putting out stimulus ideas daily. Traffic jam in Panama! Weather is causing all sorts of problems Crude oil prices on the rise PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - COVID making the rounds again - J Biden tests positive - Weight loss - UAL Full ground stop today - Gone Private - Back to the Public life (ARM) - More bailouts in China - InfaDisinFlation - Slowing Deflation? Market Update - Hurricane Idalia - The $$ cost to insurers - Employment reports - mixed to good. Fed friendly (but rates creeping again) - What is happening to pharmacies? - GOVY shutdown clock continues - Oil is still rising - Back to School THANK YOU to all who decided it was a good idea to give - we are sending you books for those who graciously donated the special amount to show 666. Employment Report - Revisions to last two months (better) - Payrolls increased to 187,000 - Unemployment rate @3.8% - Rates came down a bit and markets took this as good news VFS Stock China - Continued problems with the economy - New measures over the past week to help real estate sector and lenders - Looks like injection of funds into Country Garden - USD moving to highs against the Yuan OIL - Even though there is a concern about China's economy  - oil keeps rising - Oil prices rose on Friday to their highest in over half a year and snapped a two-week losing streak, buoyed by expectations of tightening supplies. - Saudi Arabia decided to keep (extend) the voluntary cuts into October --- 1 million barrels per day -- Crude oil up 8% YTD - BUT, 21%  in the last 3-months ----- How does that fit with the deflationary story? Supply Chain/Weather Issues - The average wait time for non-booked vessels at the Panama Canal jumped by between 44% and 59% last month as a prolonged drought led to restrictions on daily transits and ship drafts. - The Panama Canal Authority began imposing the restrictions earlier this year in a move to conserve water. Only 32 vessels with a draft of up to 44 feet are now allowed to pass everyday, from 36 ships and maximum draft of 50 feet in normal conditions. - Waiting time averaged 8.85 days for southbound transit and 9.44 days for northbound passage in August, from 5.56 days and 6.55 days, respectively, in July, according to data from the Panama Canal Authority. VinFast - Follow up - OH My - down 70% from peak ARM - Chip design firm Arm on Tuesday submitted an updated filing for its upcoming blockbuster initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, setting a price range between $47 and $51. - Only 9.4% of Arm’s shares will be freely traded on the NYSE. - Arm was previously dually listed in London and New York, before SoftBank acquired it for $32 billion in 2016. Shoot it up! - Novo Nordisk launched its weight-loss injection Wegovy in Britain on Monday, its second debut in Europe in just over a month as the drugmaker seeks to expand in the region even as it struggles to keep up with soaring demand. - Surging demand for the drug, and Novo's highly effective diabetes drug Ozempic, have sent the company's shares and earnings to record highs. - So no problem taking these shots.....(only very recently approved for weight loss as it is a diabetes medicine) - MIRACLE DRUG - Get that shot in the belly roll!| - Danish drugmaker (Novo Nordisk) briefly unseated LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company in intraday trading on Friday, ending the French luxury group's 2-1/2 year-long reign at the top. COVID - First lady Jill Biden’s positive test for Covid-19 threatens to upend President Joe Biden’s plans to travel to the G-20 summit in India,

We have some insights from Powell's latest speech. China - trying to talk up markets. Big week for eco data - the softer, the better. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Powell Said - NOTHING NEW, Nothing Old, Nothing Really - Unions are next concern for inflation (wages) - Airlines weighing people - Big week for ECO - investors hoping for some weak numbers Market Update - China - Stock Market Support - Govy Trying - markets up last week 0- broke a couple week down streak - End of month - markets watching for employment data this week (Friday) - Players hitting the ask on high-flyers - ESG - not for $ - Crypto Moving on court rulling SPECIAL EPISODE -666. We are asking you for your support on this devlish episode 666 - Donate exactly 66.60 - BUT  Donors that go out for the big $666 will get a copy of Too Many Eggs hardcopy - that is well worth it. Big Bounce - Fed threads the needle again - Or the algos set to just buy as Fed talks - Butting up against resistance - Looks more like oversold bounce into end of month Yields - 10-Year - drops to 4.25 from 4.45% - Plenty arguing that the latest move was a top in rates - Avg mortgage rate tops 7% Yields - Tuesday Drop - Yeilds and USd dumping after soft JOLTs report - This is a good JOLTS report from the Fed's perspective. The labor market is cooling. U.S. job openings decreased to 8.8 million (lower than consensus expectations of 9.5), the lowest since March 2021. The mismatch between labor demand (openings) & labor supply (hired) narrowed. - Growht names moving up - dragging entire market with them Unions - Pushing hard for wage hikes - Big increase for pilots and UPS drivers recently - UAW President is looking for proposals that include: (or threat of a strike) - Ford GM and Stellantis - - 46% raise ---- 32 hour work week --- Return to traditional pensions - Recently won a 25% pay hike for workers at Ohio EV factory Crypto in the News - Appeals court ruling against SEC in Grayscale spot bitcoin ETF case - so the idea is that there will be a more accessible way to invest in bitcoin (like it is not now) |- Could be included in peions - Grayscale Trusts: GBTC +18%, ETHE +14%, GDLC +22%... Crypto Miners: MARA +17%, GREE +17%, HUT +16%, RIOT +15%, BITF +14%, SDIG +14%... Others with Crypto exposure: COIN +13.5%, MSTR +7.7%, NVDA +3% ECO This Week - Wednesday --- ADP Emplyment Change - (180k) --- GDP (2) 2.4% - Thursday ---- PCE Inflation 0.2% (MoM)* - Friday --- Non Farm Payrolls 185k /3.6% --- ISM Manufacturing ---Average Hourly earnings  0.3%  MoM China - manipulated market - China's stock market in disarray - China Evergrande reopens after 17 month tradig halt (Stock plunges 80%) - Government starting to talk up market - been in a funk for a while --- Reduces stamp duty on stock transactions and other measures to boost confidence (and approves dozens of new funds for investing over weekend) ---- Stock market (CSI 300) opened up 5.5% but trended lower all day Monday (closed up 1.5%) - Lenders and Developer hardships spooking investors AND draining their finances More China - China's foreign ministry said on Monday that inbound travelers to the country no longer need a pre-departure antigen test for COVID-19 from Aug. 30. - US study shows that the abrupt end to Covid restrictions last year may have caused an excess of 2 million deaths. --- Study showed an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths from all causes occurred among people over 30 years of age between December 2022 and January 2023, and were observed in all provinces in mainland China (China said a total of 55,

More Talk from Feds - Jackson Hole Confab Another government shutdown looming? Hot Dogs, get Your Hot Dogs! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - US Rates on the move - Jackson Hole Confab this week - Powell talking Friday - Another government shutdown looming? (September) - Russian Moon Landing - Not so good - Hot Dog Wars - Schmuchalucks Market Update - China freaking out investors - not showing big support - The S&P 500 index fell 2.1% last week, extending the market benchmark's losing streak to a third consecutive week as bond yields climbed to highs not seen in years. - The drop came as Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs; the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 16-year high and the 30-year Treasury yield reached a 12-year high - The SPAC is back? IPO opps? Parts of the market still yearning for risk (casino vs investing) - Moody's gets into the fray - cuts bank ratings Yields - Moving - 10-Year tops 4.35%++ - Long-term on a losing streak --- Meaning: High rates for longer being accepted by markets - also spread may narrow on curve - Minutes released this week from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated most committee members saw "significant upside risks" to inflation, which could prompt the central bank to further raise its benchmark lending rate. Long vs. Short 10-Year Pop! Moody's - Moody's cut credit ratings of several small to mid-sized U.S. banks on Monday and said it may downgrade some of the nation's biggest lenders, warning that the sector's credit strength will likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 banks by one notch and placed six banking giants, including Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp State Street and Truist Financial on review for potential downgrades. Inflation - Rice - Rice prices surged to their highest in almost 12 years, after India's rice export ban and adverse weather conditions dented production and supplies of Asia's primary staple food, according to the UN's food agency. Tesla - Tesla shares (TSLA) led the consumer discretionary sector's drop, falling 11% last week as reports said the electric vehicle maker reduced the prices for its premium Model S and Model X vehicles in China, its second price cut in the country this week. - The company also launched two cheaper versions of its Model S sedan and Model X sports utility vehicle in the US. NVDA - Earnings out on 8/23 - a good bit of optimism going into the print - Recent upgrade to the stock - HSBC upped their tgt on NVIDIA (NVDA) to $780 from $600 Odd Tech - Earnings AFTER the close on Friday (last) --- Worried investors - why would a company do that? (Friday Night Dump?) - - - Stock is ramping higher on the news.... - Palo Alto Networks — The security software vendor soared 12.5% following an earning's beat after the Friday market close. Fiscal fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.44, topping the $1.28 expected from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Revenue, however, fell short Earnings Roundup - Fabrinet surged 21% after its fiscal fourth-quarter results late Monday topped analysts' estimates. The advanced manufacturing services company posted non-GAAP earnings of $1.86 per share, greater than the $1.80 earnings per share expected - Dicks Sporting Goods shares plunged nearly 20% after the retailer reported an earnings miss and cut guidance for the year, due in part to an increase in retail theft ----- The tell ? Dicks announced management layoff and cost savings a day before the earnings -  Macy's slid about 1.6% after reporting second-quarter earnings.

Economy on fire in the US - while China sinks to new lows. Housing market sentiment slows - hit by high mortgage rates. Big break for big insurers. The Closest to The Pin Winner! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news (AGAIN) - FITCH - at it again - M&A in Steel industry - China eco spooks markets (Ghost Economics hits) - Impact of Maui Fires - Focus on A Utility Company Market Update - Sentiment shifting - AI craze dulls some tech selling off - Housing index drops - (builder sentiment) - 7% mortgage rates hit hard - EV price wars - led by Elon (beat them and bury them) - Disinflation is slowing ( Confusing?) Inflation - PPI comes out hot - Concern rising that there is commodity inflation returning - Talk of one more hike this year then cuts mid-2024 (Goldman Sachs Update) - Meanwhile - rates movin' up 10's Moving Yield Curve - Getting Crazy! 2/10's Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week Fitch - Another Warning - Discussed the rationale with Moody's last week - A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase. - Another one-notch downgrade of the industry's score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers Yen - Intervention - Yen hits 145 - level that has had BOJ intervention previously - Weakening due to easy monetary policy while everywhere else is tightening Yen Japan - 6% GDP (annualized) - expectations were for 3.1% - How do you keep rates at historic lows? China - Just bad news after bad news - So bad they announce a surprise rate cut last night - Discontinued reporting on unemployment of young people - (was record level of  21%+ last month) - Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase, - Industrial production rose by 3.7% in July from a year ago, below the 4.4% increase analysts had expected - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the first seven months of the year from a year ago, below the 3.8% forecast - The urban unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June More China - One of China’s largest private wealth managers has triggered fresh anxiety about the health of the country’s shadow banking industry after missing payments on multiple high-yield investment products. - Zhongzhi is among the biggest players in the country’s $2.9 trillion trust industry, which combines characteristics of commercial and investment banking, private equity and wealth management. - Firms in the sector pool savings from wealthy households and corporate clients to offer loans and invest in real estate, stocks, bonds and commodities. Russian Ruble Woes - Ruble hits 17 month low - discussion that this is because Russia losing the war? - Russia's central bank on Tuesday hiked interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting Cage Fight - Done - Zuck: "I think we can all agree Elon isn't serious and it's time to mo...

YIELDS and the Curve - getting weirder. Bear Twist -Tucked and ran. Earnings season update - big change this week to end the season. The Closest to The Pin standings! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news - Yields spike - Yield curve spreads - Prominent Bear - begs for mercy (Bullish Bear?) - Beer Ball - Reversing The Trend - Banks - Bowie: Under Pressure (who Else was featured on that song?) Market Update - Market Moving - earnings and ECO - Eco report was confusing many - what is the deal? - Earnings - some big hits and some big misses - An update on earnings season - Markets bummed - more downgrades, China data sucks 30 Second Shameless Host Plugs Inflation - Key CPI report out this week (tomorrow) - but many looking for consistent drop (AH sees potential for near-term bounce higher in inflation) - 3.5% - but weaker additions to payroll/jobs. - Wage growth kicking up again - Manheim Used Car Index -1.6% m/m, -11.6% yr/y (seeing moderation, but prices still high) Employment China Eco - China said Tuesday that exports fell by 14.5% in July from a year ago, while imports dropped by 12.4% in U.S. dollar terms. - That's worse than what analysts had expected. - A Reuters poll predicted a 12.5% decline in exports in July from a year ago, in U.S. dollar terms. Imports were expected to have dropped by 5% during that time, according to the poll. Yield Curve - The U.S. yield curve steepened by 20-30 basis points last week - the biggest steepening since March - and the steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. - Lots of talk from Bill Ackman about shorting the long end of the curve (20-30 yr) Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week DOWNGRADES - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of several U.S. banks on Monday and warned it was reviewing the status of some of the nation's biggest lenders. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 U.S. banks by one notch and placed some banking giants on review for potential downgrades. The agency also changed its outlook to negative for several major lenders. Overall, it changed the assessments for 27 banks in the sector. - The downgraded banks include M&T Bank, Pinnacle Financial Partners, Prosperity Bank and BOK Financial Corp . - The banks placed on review for downgrade include BNY Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial. -"Many banks’ Q2 results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital," Moody's wrote in a note. Italy! - How Do You Say Morons in Italian? - deficiente OR il ritardato - Italian banking shares took a beating on Tuesday morning after Italy's cabinet approved a 40% windfall tax on lenders' "excess" profits in 2023. - Just off negative rates and banks being punished again - Italian Deputy Prime Matteo Salvini told a press conference on Monday that the 40% levy on banks' extra profits derived from higher interest rates, amounting to several billion euros, will be used to cut taxes and offer financial support to mortgage holders.

X Platform is here. Or is it Platform X? China economic condition is of interest. Plenty of interesting earnings reports to discuss The Fed lifts rates - how is that playing out? Announcing a new Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - X or EX? May be the start of something or maybe the end of something - Saying goodbye to Pee-Wee - Crazy Meme-type crowd buying again - Sending big weapons package to Taiwan - Big news on Mac and Cheese (follow up) - The Bankruptcy Squeeze - fun market moves Market Update - July - great returns across the board - UBER - first ever profit - but there is more to the story - China markets are hot - but their economic condition is horrible - Credit card fee fight - Big boys looking to stop bleed - Fed lifts rates - once again can't help dovish talk - Almost a record! DJIA - Crude WTI at $82, 10Yr at 4.01% - FITCH! July Recap - Markets    July Snapshot   Overview DJIA Record - Almost - Respectable run for 13 days straight days - It missed the opportunity to tie its longest rally on record: a 14-session run in 1897. - Since the Dow's inception in 1897, there have been nearly 33,000 trading days. In that time, we've seen a single 14-day streak of gains and two streaks that ended at 13 positive sessions in a row. Prior to this week, the last 13-day rally was in January 1987. FED - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy still needed to slow and the labor market to weaken for inflation to "credibly" return to the U.S. central bank's 2% target. - "The (Federal Open Market) Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy, - During the press conference, every-time he tried to have a hawkish moment - he pulled it back with a softening of the stance FITCH - United States ratings cut by Fitch to "AA+" from "AAA", reflects expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, growing government debt, and erosion of governance related to peers - In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process. X SIGN - Twitter is now Platform X -- Somehow this is going to become the platform for all things??? === ELON put up a BIG lighted sign on roof of HQ - forced to rip it down after complaints --- On Monday, CNBC saw workers dismantling the glowing X, removing its lights and an arm of the letter, after the construction drew several complaints from neighbors and city officials. The complaints said that it was unpermitted, is a nuisance and, in one complaint, that its flashing lights made it hard to sleep. More Musk - JCD - Pluralistic Article about Tesla's Dieselgate, and Musk lies - https://pluralistic.net/2023/07/28/edison-not-tesla/#demon-haunted-world Mega Millions - Now over $1BILLION --- If there is a grand-prize winner in Tuesdays's drawing, that player can choose to receive the $1.05 billion jackpot in installments or a lump-sum cash payment of $527.9 million, Mega Millions said --- For most people that are playing - realize that about 40% goes to the government. So, you are sending the government 40% of every dollar you spend on lottery. Uber

Panic over  the potential NASDAQ 100 rebalance and here is what happened. Following up on the multi-billion dollar lose by Goldman - AppleCard a bust? The Fed and other important market moving events on the top of out list this week. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Another big deal - panic ended up a nothingburger - Summer Travel upended as wildfires heat up Europe - Biden-omics, this is a thing? - AI - coders going to be goners Market Update - Mega-Cap Tech earnings - Fed meeting this week - odds favor a hike - Bull run continues - Media all abuzz about the DJIA run - most consecutive up days since 2017 - P/E ration on SP500 now at 19.6 (forward) with a negative or zero growth rate Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 117.0 in July (Briefing.com consensus 111.5) from an upwardly revised 110.1 (from 109.7) in June. - In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 95.3. - The July reading marks the highest level for the Consumer Confidence Index since July 2021. - Big jump in UMich last week as well ---- FED HAS TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS   Consumer Confidence Fear/Greed - Extreme Greed   Fear/Greed Index   Fear/Greed History Microsoft Earnings - Good overall , guides soft for Sept quarter, shares drop 4% AH Google Earnings - AI big driver, good advert numbers, they like what they see - shares jump 6% AH Interesting - All of a Sudden - News that AT&T and Verizon may have lead cable problem --- Raymond James analysts wrote in a note that they estimate AT&T could spend between $264 million and $1.2 billion to remove lead-covered cables. If the company is required to remove all the lead-clad cables, it could cost AT&T roughly $84 million a year in a 15 to 25-year process, the analysts wrote. - Pratt & Whitney determined that a rare condition in powder metal used to manufacture certain engine parts will require accelerated fleet inspection (RTX down 15% on news as they premise to compensate airlines for the disruption) --- Powdered metal had a containment in it and the company started inspecting. ----- There is a concern that fleet needs to be inspected more rapidly. -------- The company expects to inspect another 1000 units next year and expects a very small fallout rate. - This will cause distribution to the airlines. -------------- Decliners: ULCC -5.79% LUV -5.60% JBLU -5.39% HA -5.42% UAL -3.96% DAL -3.14% AAL -2.87% SAVE -2.24 Greece Tourism - Fires burning since Wednesday on Rhodes forced the evacuation of 19,000 people over the weekend as an inferno reached coastal resorts on the island's southeastern coast. - Rhodes and Corfu are among Greece's top destinations for tourists mainly from Britain and Germany. - Tour operators Jet2, TUI and Corendon cancelled flights leaving for Rhodes. Britain's easyJet said on Sunday it was operating two repatriation flights on Monday from Rhodes to London's Gatwick airport in addition to the nine flights already operating between the island and Gatwick. - - AND: The heatwave engulfing the northern hemisphere is set to intensify this week, causing overnight temperatures to surge and leading to an increased risk of heart attacks and deaths, the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday. - - - - The WMO warned that the heatwave was in its early phases, saying it expected temperatures in North America, Asia, North Africa and the Mediterranean to be above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) "for a prolonged number of days this week as the heatwave intensifies". Special Rebalance on Monday - Not as much volatility on the Mega=cap names with the NAS...

bank earnings are out - same pattern as usual. China economy slipping further. Oil prices coming up as summer disruptions hit pipelines. Massive raises in the airline sector - 40%. At the same time, Ford slashing prices. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Bank Earnings - Friday the usual - Markets Trying very hard to stay positive - key analyst upgrades - Toffee Pretzels with Old Bay - Client Sent me a batch - McAllens Best Toffee  (reasonably priced too!) - Big price hikes and bigger price cuts - M&A - Microsoft deal makes DOJ look silly and may pave way for more activity - A look at a very bad stock chart - you probably won't believe the company Market Update - China economics - from bad to worse (what happened to that re-opening trade?) - All about AI - wait to hear in the next batch of earnings reports - Luxury firms feeling the heat after China's poor eco readings - Technicals - MOMO and FOMO - Ahead of Earnings - Clearly some excess exuberance in markets ECO - Two-year U.S. inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury market fell as low as 1.88% on Friday and held at 1.90% on Monday, well below the Fed's 2% target. - Surveys showing surging U.S. household confidence in June, as real wage growth turns positive and jobs remain plentiful, saw a hesitation in interest rate markets on Friday as Fed officials enter a blackout period before the July 26 decision. - Crude moving higher (this week it was because of supply disruptions and OPEC cuts) - Bets are that Fed will increase by 0.25% next week and probably be done. (Even though they are strutting around still talking about at least 2 more hikes and no thoughts about a cut anytime soon. - USD lowest level against a basket of currencies since April 2022 (also showing that expectations are for a Fed to chill out) ---10Y Treasuries - Down from triple top near 4.10% to 3.8% Retail Sales - Total retail sales in June increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%), yet May sales were revised up to 0.5% (from 0.3%). Excluding autos, June retail sales also increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.1%) in May. After accounting for the upward revisions to May sales, the June results were roughly consistent with expectations. (Briefing) The key takeaway from the report is that control group sales, which are used in the computation for personal spending in the GDP report, were up a solid 0.6%, leaving them far afield of an economy in recessionary distress. - Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales increased 0.3% month-over-month following a 1.5% increase in May. - Gasoline station sales declined 1.4% month-over-month after declining 2.1% in May. - Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealer sales dropped 1.2% month-over-month after increasing 1.4% in May. - Food and beverage store sales decreased 0.7% month-over-month after being unchanged in May. - Nonstore retailer sales jumped 1.9% month-over-month after increasing 0.7% in May. - Food services and drinking places sales rose 0.1% month-over-month after increasing 1.2% in May. - Electronics and appliance store sales increased 1.1% month-over-month following a 2.1% increase in May. Bank Earnings - Schwab comes up smelling sweet - Big flood of new accounts, deposits and decent earnings -  Bank of America - Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.88 per share, $0.04 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.84; revenues rose 11.1% year/year to $25.2 bln vs the $24.98 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock up 4%) ----- Revenue, net of interest expense, increased 11% to $25.

Make it or break it time - earnings season is right ahead... Fed heads - 8 speakers this week. Tesla - blows away delivery estimates - what that means for profitability. Change of direction for this currency? What the players expect. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - It is make or break - Earnings season is here - Hot weather and hot inflation - 8 Fed Speakers this week - CPI data Wednesday - expected to be soft - Base effect - Summer Doldrums but a Buying Frenzy! Market Update - Resilient - that's the word - Eco divergence as employment stays strong - Tech in the lead - But Banks ALL pass stress tests - Europe favored over US on valuations (new analyst call) - Big best on rising USD being reversed AI - Party’s over for ChatGPT Plus subscribers as OpenAI announced it has temporarily disabled the Browse with Bing beta tool from its service. - Apparently, people used the feature to completely bypass paywalls and consume content for free. - If a user specifically asks for a URL’s full text,” the AI will fulfill the request, including displaying content from paywalled articles - How did it avoid the paywall? ---- Some paywalls are simply pasted over” articles, ChatGPT could simply read the code rendering the text and display the content without a problem. META - New Threads is threat to Twitter ---Twitter has degraded severly since Musk took over (IN AH opinion) - META stock on fire, 100 million accounts created already - Twitter is threatening to sue (of course) West Wing Scandal? - White powder was found in the White House last week - Turned out to be Cocaine... - - Who leaved a stash of coke anywhere - much less the White House? Best Stock Market - This year (to date) ??? - Zimbabwe ---- 5, 10, 20% daily gains - Up 800% YTD - Argentina up only 100% in 2023   Best Market 2023 FOLLOW UP - Hyper-Inflation seems to boost stock markets - Is it possible that this is the playbook that investors are using in US and other developed countries? Change of Plans - Apple is slowing its headset production and also slowing the rollout --- By appointment only? - Goldman is in talks to offload Apple credit and savings products to Amex ---- Goldman trying to rid itself of bad bet on personal/retail finance endeavor under CEO Solomon. Jobs/Employment - End of June: US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina - July saw a slight uptick in initial claims - ADP report - HOT - 450k new jobs added to payrolls - BLS official disappointed - 200k added but Unemp Rate ticked down to 3.6% -- Jobs report still solid down to wage growth ---- Last 4 months added near 1M new jobs - not a jobs markets that is seen as being held back by rates Fed Rate Plans - Since we last spoke.... Odds are now 83% +/- of a rate hike in July - 10 year treasury over 4% - 2 year treasury over 5% - Inversion of 2/10 worst since 1980s (and holding for LONG time) -- Powell's recent commentary discussed potential for 2 more hikes and acknowledged that the inflation rate will not come to 2% target until at last 2025 ------ Note - they have never nailed a prediction for as long as time itself Meanwhile - Rates do not seem to be bothering many... --- Consumer Confidence hits 17-month high --- Housing seems to be coming back from brief dip - - Many of the homebuilders shares are at ATH China Economy - Another story - PPI inflation shrank to -5.4% below expectations - Industrial profits are in bad shape - Factory activity is in contraction for last few  months - Government pushing stimulus - targeting housing TESLA - Big print on deliveries

National Debt - Which way is it moving?  Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply alert... Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - what that really means. New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge)   PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Check out ccpstats.com Warm Up - National Debt - Which way is it moving? - Booming business - converting ICE to EV - Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply - Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge) - Happy belayed Juneteenth Market Update - Bulls are in control - half full - Fed says more hikes to come - no one believes them - ECB raises rates again - even as Eurozone slips into recession - Economic point to downside risk - China stimulus on the way NO SHOW NEXT WEEK - Cruising the Abacos (Bahamas) --- Assuming Tropical storm does not kick up Fed Meeting - Looked like a hawkish call - Unanimous decision to hold this meeting - Powell talked up future rate hikes and changed outlook to include 2 more @0.25% - Markets are not buying it.. --- Initial rates came up then they came in a bit, equity markets moved in similar fashion - What this is telling you is that markets feel that higher rates impacting the economy is fake news ----- BUT, if so, Powell will be even more aggressive Fed Follow Up - Last week, S&P 500 reaches highest in 14 months. - Led by the Mega-caps again. - Markets fell a bit on Friday with Op-X and long weekend Even more Fed Follow up - Friday: The Federal Reserve warned Friday that tighter U.S. credit conditions following a spate of bank failures in the spring could hinder economic growth this year. - In its semi-annual monetary report to Congress, the central bank noted that bank lending conditions have "tightened notably" over the past year due to the rapid increase in interest rates and the recent turmoil within the financial sector. - "Evidence suggests that the recent banking-sector stress and related concerns about deposit outflows and funding costs contributed to tightening and expected tightening in lending standards and terms at some banks beyond what these banks would have reported absent the banking-sector stress," the report said. - That survey also pointed to a sharp slowdown in demand for credit. ----- The percentage of banks reporting stronger demand for commercial and industrial loans tumbled by 55.5% in the first three months of the year, the sharpest decline since 2009 during the global financial crisis. - Powell: "The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," he said. "The extent of these effects remains uncertain." Economics - Data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers spent on a range of goods including vehicles. - Another data set showed jobless claims were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 262,0000 for the week ended June 10, but were above economists' forecast of 249,000 claims. - Import prices fell in May and the annual decrease was the sharpest in three years. - That followed a report on Tuesday showing April headline inflation increased by less than expected.  Crypto - According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and despite the U.S. regulator not approving any applications for spot bitcoin ETFs to date, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust will use Coinbase Custody as its custodian. - The SEC rejected Grayscale Investment LLC’s application last year to convert its flagship spot Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.

Tipping - where we stand on the issue. Oil prices plummeting - sign of the impending recession? Tipping and other interesting "fatigues" are starting to set in. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - PGA Tour partners with LIV - Back from Bahamas - the water is clear and the sand is soft white - AI still  the rage! - Zuck sneers at Apple - Epstein - JP Morgan Update - Tipping Fatigue Market Update - Markets Climbing the Wall of Worry - Beer Wars - Taking Share back from Craft Brewers - Rolling Recessions - Eurozone enters official recession - BOA Moynihan has some comments... - Seems like some Fatigue is approaching - too far, too fast Zuck on Apple VR Headset - Zuck points out that every Apple Vision Pro VR demo 'was a person sitting on a couch by themself' - He explains, "our vision for the metaverse and presence is fundamentally social. It’s about people interacting in new ways and feeling closer in new ways. Our device is also about being active and doing things. - "By contrast, every demo that they showed was a person sitting on a couch by themself. I mean, that could be the vision of the future of computing, but like, it’s not the one that I want." LARRRRY! - Lary Ellison - Oracle - Good earnings report - plenty of orders coming in.... - The Oracle founder has surpassed Bill Gates to rank fourth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as shares of the software firm have climbed 42% this year. Golf - PGA and LIV merging - A great deal of unrest about this - PGA trying to figure out ways to help those that stuck it out and maybe penalize LIV players - PGA said they could not afford to keep battling Saudi Arabia - All pending litigation has been cancelled. - One player Rory Mcilroy is really not happy about it and very vocal Golf - US Open - Los Angeles Country Club - 290 Yard Par 3? Beer - I Like Beer - Anheuser-Busch InBev and Molson Coors Beverage are set to gain market share from craft beer makers in the United States this year as cost-conscious consumers are opting for cheaper six-packs, according to analysts and industry experts. - Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect annual revenue to grow about 6% for Molson Coors and 7.5% for AB InBev in 2023, while craft beer maker Boston Beer Co is expected to post a near 3% fall in revenue, compared with last year's 1.6% rise. - "Most cost-conscious consumers are still buying the same volume of beer, but in the less expensive category of beer,"     Beer Beer AI Time - Big worries about FAKE AI generated content ahead of the 2024 election - Lots of fake media already - Campbell's Soup is talking up that they have embraced AI --- (We talked about when these off-beat names start to Tech-Wash that would be clue that surge could be over) - The 154-year-old Campbell Soup Co. is embracing Silicon Valley-inspired artificial intelligence (AI) technology to ensure its success in food and beverage innovation continues. The company is doing this by tracking and curating billions of data points to find inspiration and leverage agile design methodology to accelerate the development of new products that resonate with consumers. - “We leverage artificial intelligence to track and analyze these data points and it has become the main driver for the increase in number of products in our pipeline.” Recession ? Various Eco Reports - The euro zone has slipped into recession and Chinese data has disappointed, warning signs for world markets relieved that the March banking turmoil has not led to a full on credit-crunch and a U.S. debt ceiling crisis has been averted. - Goldman Sachs lowered its odds of a U.S.

Wham Bam! markets on fire - not stopping her now. Russia and Ukraine Updates - Colorcast? New Word - Fed Speak Update Update on Apple's WWDC . PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - OPEC+ Decides on cuts & No-Cuts - Everyone is running for President - Republicans getting their paperwork in - Russia and Ukraine Updates - Colorcast? - Married to AI - This is a dooozy - New Word - Fed Speak Update Market Update - Crypto getting knocked - News about Binance - Markets all excite about Apple VR headset - WWDC announcements - Narrowing breath - day by day - Best move in a day since... Employment Report Friday was gooooood DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help. Fed Speak Update - New word being used to convey Fed's next move - The street is all excited about .... "SKIP" - Pause is now Skip (Meaning that they not going to raise this meeting, but will reserve the right to raise if conditions require... - 27% Chance that the Fed will raise at next meeting (25 bps) - but that is much different than the day before the employment report Employment Report - Big gain in total number of people added to the payrolls - BUT - somehow the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.4% - --- This will give the Fed some cover so that they can hold off on a raise next week - The wage growth us still there and even with a tick up in the rate (possibly due to the labor participation rate moving up) there is still a good amount of inflationary pressure. War Color - Since when is every little bit of war covered? - "Moscow said on Monday it had thwarted a major Ukrainian offensive in the south of Ukraine's Donetsk region but Russia's main mercenary leader said Russian forces had lost ground around Bakhmut further north." Thoughts on any of the Apple announcements? - WWDC got all abuzz - VR Headset (success where others have failed?) Binance - The Securities and Exchange Commission filed 13 charges against Binance , the world’s largest crypto exchange, and its co-founder Changpeng Zhao, alleging that both comingled billions of dollars worth of user funds and sent them to a European company controlled by Zhao. - The U.S. regulator alleged that Zhao and his exchange worked to subvert “their own controls” to allow high-net-worth U.S. investors and customers to continue trading on Binance’s unregulated international exchange. - Seems all these have some bad dudes running the company - -- Bitcoin was down 7% on the news and the USD running (at the same time) ---Other cryptos also falling OPEC Cutting Production - Not really - Keeping production targets overall - BUT Saudi Arabia is actually doing volumtary cuts - that was enough for markets - push up oil a bit in the overnight sessions. ---- CLOSE to unchanged by midday. Married to AI - Gone  too far? - Rosanna Ramos, 36, from the Bronx, New York, has said she has tied the knot with virtual partner Eren Kartal after using online app Replika AI to create him. - "I could tell him stuff, and he wouldn't be like, 'Oh, no, you can't say stuff like that. Oh no, you're not allowed to feel that way,' you know, and then start arguing with me," she told the Daily Mail. "There was no judgment." - Replika AI markets itself as a way to make an AI best friend and confidante to chat with at any time. - For a one-time $300 fee, users can upgrade to Replika Pro. - This expands the capability of the language model and even gives the ability for the purchaser to change the relationship status to "Romantic Partner". - The company have overcome a number of difficulties to develop the intimacy aspe...

Closest to The Pin - first time this ever happened ! Something funny is happening with AI Back to business - some stories from Europe. Better yet - how about some Fed Limericks? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from Europe - Ireland and England (Ever been to an English Wedding?) - - Vaping a big thing in Europe (London) - A surprise CTP announcement - never before situation - Back for more - A special set of Fed Limericks - A lesson in Breath - very narrow right now... Market Update - AI running the show - NVDA - hits the $1 trillion mark for a moment today - UK inflation - still going - Case Shiller Housing report is out and ISM Manufacturing, Employment Report Friday - Apple - Bigger and Bigger -AI name - Did anyone hold C3.AI? UP BIG! DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help. SPECIAL GOODBYE to William O'Neil - Investor Business Daily Founder - pioneer of charting - passed at the age of 90 Housing and Eco - Case Shiller DOWN 1.1% YoY - Consumer Confidence up to 102 - still high (down slightly from last month) -  UK - Consumer prices rose by 8.7% in annual terms in April, down from 10.1% in March but still leaving Britain with the joint highest rate of inflation among Group of Seven advanced economies alongside Italy. ----In Western Europe, only Austria had a higher rate. - Food +20% YoY ( Observance - NO RECESSION IN LONDON - Lots of spending going 0n) Cathy Woods - Talking Valuations - The "visionary investor" sold out the fund's position in NVDA in January due to valuation concerns - - Meanwhile, when has valuations mattered to CW before? Vaping Crackdown - The British government said on Tuesday it would close a loophole that lets retailers give free samples of vapes to children in a clampdown on e-cigarettes - 2023 survey by public health charity Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) of 11-17 year olds in which 2 out of 5 young people said they smoke vapes just to try it, while 1 in 5 said they do it due to peer pressure. - Have there been any good studies on vaping vs traditional smoking? China Stocks - Re-opening craze - not playing out as expected - Small - retail investors have turned pretty bearish on China's stocks - China's small investors are also such a large force - accounting for some 60% of turnover, according to China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Yi Huiman, compared with a JPMorgan estimate of less than 25% in the United States - that their lack of interest shows up in market data. - CSI 300 down about 16% from October high Turkey - The Turkish lira slumped to yet another all-time low Tuesday, extending its slide after the re-election of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. - Erdogan believes that lower interest rates help to curb inflation - LIRA down 7% YTD - MULTI DECADE LOWS   LIRA - USD Debt Ceiling Talks - Agreement in Principle - McCarthy says it will be transformational for Americans - WAIT - wasn't this just supposed to be about raising the limit so bills that were already outstanding could be paid??? --- How much fat have they put into this? - Example: Manchin added a feature to approve all of the remaining permits to complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline that has been stalled for a long time. (pork/earmarks) - Watch for many 3PM - 3:30PM "surprise" announcements Disney Chess Match - Walt Disney Co is scrapping plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida in part because of "changing business conditions" in the state, according to an e-mail to employees seen by Reuters. - Disney parks chief Josh D'Amaro said "leadership changes" and "chang...

Markets appear to be climbing a wall of worry. Hoping that everything works out. Big badminton news - not to be missed. An update on markets and the weekly stock picks. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - NEW CTP for PacWest Bank (PACW) - Wild one.. - US default - create problem fix problem (all politicians know) - Wall of Worry - climbing - Badminton news - this is big - Europe Bound - No Show Next Week - 1 month T-Bill 5.6% Market Update - Stocks impervious - resilient (Not much movement within range) - Close Call- Banks skidded by another potential weekend bailout - that's good.... - Big Tech leads by a wide margin - YTD - DJIA up 18% - Hedge Funds crowding a trade again - AI rage making the rounds again  DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help. Debt Ceiling - Now they are talking about July, if June is cleared - Will slow walk this right up until the last minute - Game of chicken, but just politics as usual - Default would be big BIG problem - global system would unravel Wonky action - US Treasuries - S/T debt moving around a bit - Last week, the yield on 1-month Treasury bills surged 23.8 basis points to hit a high of 5.689% and yields on 2-month bills climbed to a high of 5.283% as investors sold off notes that mature about the time the debt limit could be hit. Musk in the News - Elon Musk hires ex-NBCUniversal ad chief Linda Yaccarino to be Twitter's CEO - Already too many ads - obnoxious - At first, TESLA stock got a bid as the thought was that Elon would get back to work at Tesla - "I am excited to welcome Linda Yaccarino as the new CEO of Twitter!" Musk tweeted. He said she "will focus primarily on business operations, while I focus on product design & new technology." - He added, "Looking forward to working with Linda to transform this platform into X, the everything app." More Musk........ There is always more Musk.... Tucker and Twitter - Tucker Carlson is starting a new show n Twitter - How does that work? One More Musk - Chief Executive Elon Musk has said that the company can make no new hires unless he personally approves them, including contractors - According to the report, Musk told executives to send him a list of hiring requests on a weekly basis, while also cautioning them to "think carefully" before submitting such requests. Crowded Trade - Hedge Funds releasing their quarterly additions and deletions - Crowding into mega-cap names - no wonder that the NASDAQ is so green this year - - Crowded trades make for tough exits M&A News - Gold giant Newmont Corp. secured a A$28.8 billion ($19.2 billion) deal to buy Australian rival Newcrest Mining Ltd., consolidating its position as the world’s biggest bullion producer with mines across the Americas, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea. - The transaction, now unanimously approved by Newcrest’s board but pending regulatory approval, is the gold mining sector’s largest deal to date, surpassing Newmont’s purchase of rival Goldcorp Inc. - In 2019. Newcrest, whose then chief executive officer stepped down abruptly at the end of last year, rejected initial overtures, though it had indicated earlier this month that it planned to recommend an improved takeover offer from its suitor. - Gold at high end of range is odd timing to get a deal (valuation based "cheapness") MCD Burns again - 4-year old - Remember the McDonald's Coffee lawsuits? - McDonald’s and a franchise holder are at fault after a hot Chicken McNugget from a Happy Meal fell on a little girl’s leg and caused second-degree burns

Announcing a new Closest to the Pin this week. Yellen starting to freak out. Market not ready for an inflation data surprise. Sentiment slipping.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ANNOUNCING - NEW CTP for PacWest - Some prices from F1 food stops - is this right? - Gamma squeeze Friday? - Small biz sentiment - taking a leg down - Derby Day - bourbon and ham sandwiches Market Update - Oil gets a reprieve - dropped as low at $63 - Credit/loans tightening and we are just starting - Lending conditions tighten overall - Earnings - 79% companies beating estimates (good color with Silverblatt this week)  DONATIONS? Debt Ceiling Fight - Odds? - Bug dilemma - Republicans pushing for spending cuts Inflation - NY Fed- estimates 3-year rise to 2.9% from 2.8% - NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations measure drops to 4.4% from 4.7% last month Employment Report - Higher than expected gains in employment - BUT - Last month revised much lower - so not much difference - Unemployment Rate drops to 3.4% - April Nonfarm Private Payrolls 230K vs. 160K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 123K from 189K - April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4 - April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4 - BIG ONE FOR INFLATION OUTLOOK - April Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.5% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3% Employment Situation Trend - Slowing economy - employment holding up well - How does that square?   Employment Chart Harbinger - Bank Credit is tightening (not much yet, but noticeable 1.5% drop) - 1.9% decline in bank credit in 1975. -  2.2% drop in bank credit in 2002. - 6.9% dip in bank credit between 2008 and 2010.   Credit Conditions Monday - Senior Loan Officer Report - Banks reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible and government residential mortgages, which remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit cards. - Market may see this (perversely) as good news as Fed could think this is bad and not raise... (The Upside Down) Oil Prices - Headlines - Thursday: Oil Prices Fall Due to Recession Fears - Friday: Oil Steadies - Traders Look To Future - Monday: Oil Higher: Recession Fears Abate - -3 days and story changes? --- Oil prices rose on Monday as fears of a recession in the U.S., which drove prices down for three straight weeks for the first time since November, started receding. Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $75.73 a barrel at 0624 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents, also 0.6%, at $71.79 a barrel. COVID EMERGENCY - OVER - COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency, World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared Friday. - COUNTS according to WHO - 765 million cases and 7 million deaths - Meanwhile - Rochelle Walensky will step down as director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the end of June, an unexpected departure after more than two years leading the agency through an oft-criticized response to the biggest public health crisis in a century. Icahn - Short Seller Report - Hindenburg cost Carl > $10 Billion - IEP Stock on the ropes due to questionable marks and leverage

Another weekend, another bank failure. 79% beat rate for earnings season - what does that mean? Sinkhole alert! Comparing and contrasting past occurrences. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Weekend bank failure and rescue - EGG BOOK? - NEAR MISS - Tornado Update - Sinkhole alert! - Fed releases the blame report for SVB - BIG story on education and AI Market Update - Earnings Season - Statistically looking good - Apple on tap this week - Wednesday - Fed rate decision - Friday - Employment Report -Debt limit on investor's minds JCD's take on Tucker Carlson's Firing... Sinkhole Alert - What Does it Look Like?   Sinkhole Recession Fears - Looks like this: - Oil taking a leg down - Gold on fire - Stocks Down -Bonds up First Republic - 2nd largest bank failure ever - seized by California regulators - JP Morgan acquires - "Our government invited us and others to step up, and we did," JPMorgan CEO Dimon said in a press release. - "This acquisition modestly benefits our company overall, it is accretive to shareholders, it helps further advance our wealth strategy, and it is complementary to our existing franchise." - In addition to most of First Republic's deposits, JPMorgan will pick up about $173 billion in loans and about $30 million of securities. It said it won't assume First Republic's corporate debt or preferred stock. - JPM up 2.5% - We Should BECOME A BANK! KRE Bank Index - Down 33% YTD -Down 6% today - as WAL and PACW crash - No Alice- The Banking Crisis is NOT over - Why all these WESTERN banks? Debt Limit - Failing to increase the debt limit would have catastrophic economic consequences. It would cause the government to default on its legal obligations - Congress has always acted when called upon to raise the debt limit. Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. Congressional leaders in both parties have recognized that this is necessary. - Yellen pulled forward date that Bye Bye Nurses - Almost a third of the nurses in the United States are considering leaving their profession after the COVID-19 pandemic left them overwhelmed and fatigued, according to a survey. - The survey of over 18,000 nurses, conducted by AMN Healthcare Services Inc in January, showed on Monday that 30% of the participants are looking to quit their career, up 7 percentage points over 2021, when the pandemic-triggered wave of resignations began. - The survey also showed that 36% of the nurses plan to continue working in the sector but may change workplaces. Pay Half - Pfizer Inc and BioNTech's new proposal to the European Union, amid a glut of COVID-19 shots, includes a provision for member states to pay half price, or about 10 euros ($11), for each of about 70 million cancelled doses, the Financial Times reported. - In January, Reuters reported talks between the EU and the two drugmakers aimed at reducing up to 500 million COVID-19 vaccine doses Brussels has committed to buy this year in return for a higher price. China Rebound? - China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April, official data showed on Sunday, raising pressure on policymakers seeking to boost an economy struggling for a post-COVID lift-off amid subdued global demand and persistent property weakness. - The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) declined to 49.2 from 51.9 in March, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, below the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity...

Markets are moving back and forth just waiting for some big news. Talk of a US default is making the rounds. Tech has a big day - helping to push markets up from their recent despair. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - All of a sudden - recession fears - US Default whispers - Republicans put forth budget with increase and expense slashing - India - taking over the population race - Resiliency everywhere ... Market Update - Banks - Still on shaky ground - Central Banks blamed for market rally - "This year’s rally in risk assets is more to do with a $1 trillion central bank liquidity injection than any improvement in the economic outlook, according to Citigroup Inc.. " - "That massive tailwind — enough to lop 50 basis points off the investment-grade risk premium — may soon become a huge drag as policymakers get back to quashing inflation, having extinguished the banking-sector fire. " - Do we believe that the Fed is done? Earnings Coca-Cola - Average price of 192 ounces of Coca-Cola's soda (12 pack of 16oz bottle) in the U.S. rose to $9.30 in 2022 from $8.03 in 2021, according to NielsenIQ's data. It stood at $10.55 so far in 2023. (31% increase in 2 years) - Adjusted earnings came in at 68 cents per share, compared with estimates of 64 cents. - The company's first-quarter revenue rose about 5% to $10.98 billion, beating estimates of $10.80 billion IBM Earnings - Bellweather anymore? - IBM Corp missed Wall Street expectations for first-quarter revenue - WHY? Hurt by shrinking corporate spending on IT services and a strong dollar. - IBM cut its full-year consulting revenue growth forecast to 6%-8% from earlier expectations of high single-digit percentage growth. - "We are seeing softness in certain components of our discretionary based offerings in consulting," Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh told Reuters about the U.S. market. Whirlpool - Didn't everyone think that margins would compress and higher rates will kill real estate? - Whirlpool prelim Q1 $2.66 vs $2.17 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $4.65 bln vs $4.50 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate - Whirlpool sees FY23 $16.00-18.00 vs $15.97 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $19.4 bln vs $19.02 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate Tech - Microsoft beats by $0.22, beats on revs; Azure +31% constant currency growth  (Shares up 6% A/H) ---- Revenue rose 7% to $52.9 billion in the quarter ended March - Windows division  reporting revenue of $13.3 billion versus analyst estimates of $12.19 billion - Alphabet beats by $0.10, beats on revs, Google Advertising revenue essentially flat yr/yr; On April 19, Board of Directors authorized repurchase up to additional $70 bln of Class A and Class C shares PLUS big 70b buyback announcement (Shares slight move A/H) ------- Ad sales saw a drop again - although not as much as last quarter Banks - The bank crisis is not totally over yet -  Earnings and news from First Republic Bank - massive loss of deposits and company looking to some drastic ways to save itself (stock don 49% today) - Pacific West bank - better than expected results, shares up 13% A/H Debt Ceiling - Limits - Republican led plan - McCarthy floated a plan last week that would pair $4.5 trillion in spending cuts with a $1.5 trillion increase in the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt limit. - All talking about this being political divided and will not pass - The HOPE is that it will get sides talking Change of US Default - debt ceiling etc - Current pricing of credit default swaps soar - BUT, only 2% implied odds of a default - Seen this movie before....... - This time different?

A flood of earnings and a flood in SOFLA Lunch with the Feds this week.  Last week's Fed minutes tell an interesting story. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Earnings Are Out - Flooding in SOFLA - we have pictures - Lunch with the Feds - Fed minutes tell an interesting story - Re-Announcing CTP for Goldman Sachs (glitch last week) Market Update - Going Sideways - Banks post decent results - but doesn't include post-crisis (bank run) - Tesla, Netflix earnings and and next week gets busy - Yellen making some noise - nosing in wrong business - Rates - Moving wrong direction (remains massively inverted) Yields - Yields on 3-month T-Bills have reached new post-2007 highs of 5.06%+ 3M Yield Chart Fed Minutes - Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show - Fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year, according to Federal Reserve documents released Wednesday. - Though Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the banking sector "is sound and resilient," staff economists said the economy will take a hit. - "Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff's projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years," the meeting summary stated. Apple Follow Up - We discussed potential store closures??? - Apple opens first retail store in India - Cook was there in Mubai this week to take selfies and smile China - GOLD AND JEWELS - Jewellery and precious metals consumption in China soared 37.4% in March from a year earlier underpinning a 13.6% jump for the quarter and topping the list of items that stoked a surge in first-quarter retail sales, official data showed on Tuesday. - "Economic fundamentals, risk aversion and the recovery of domestic consumption all drive the investment demand for jewellery and precious metals," said Pang Xichun, research director at Nanjing RiskHunt Investment Management Co.- China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter, with retail sales rising 10.6%, beating forecasts for a 7.4% increase by a large margin.  Bank Earnings - Generally okay - withing tolerance range - None seems to include post Bank run (Tighter standards) - Not much in guidance that is useful Bank Of America - Earnings: 94 cents per share versus 82 cents per share expected - Revenue: $26.39 billion versus $25.13 billion expected - Bank of America said its net interest income jumped 25% to $14.4 billion during the quarter, driven by benefits from rising rates and loan growth. - Stock up marginally Goldman Sachs - Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $8.79 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.73 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $8.06; revenues fell 5.5% year/year to $12.22 bln vs the $12.66 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. - Provision for credit losses was a net benefit of $171 million for the first quarter of 2023, compared with net provisions of $561 million for the first quarter of 2022 and $972 million for the fourth quarter of 2022. - Global Banking & Markets generated quarterly net revenues of $8.44 billion, driven by strong performances in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) and Equities, including record quarterly net revenues in Equities financing. - Net revenues were $12.22 billion for the first quarter of 2023, 5% lower than the first quarter of 2022 and 15% higher than the fourth quarter of 2022. The decrease compared with the first quarter of 2022 reflected lower net revenues in Global Banking & Mar...

Banks need some inflows - giving away prizes for deposits. Earnings season is about to begin - looking for a significant downside for growth. Yields ticking lower as recession fears bump inflation worries. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Easter and holiday season coming to an end... - A NEW Closest to The Pin Announcement - Bond yields way down - what does that mean? - Free Toasters Making a comeback - Gold, metals, alts, COINS! Market Update - Falling Yields - may be a bit much - Employment report - mixed bag - Earnings season starts this week - Big Banks - Apple news - PC Demand DONATIONS - April Donations - Bring May Flowers Earnings Season Prep - Going to be some bad guidance... If actions by companies any guide - Example - Google letter about 2008 and getting in advance so they can say - we are ahead of this... - Banks - what good can they say? Or maybe at worst levels? -  S&P 500 Estimates - looking for -7% YoY growth for earnings How Bad? Tech bad... - Apple Mac shipments fell 40.5% in the first quarter of 2023, compared with the same time the prior year, market intelligence provider IDC said. --- Apple’s worldwide PC market share dropped between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, from 8.6% to 7.2%, according to IDC data. - All five of the largest computer makers — Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo — saw double-digit drops in first-quarter shipments, reflecting weaker demand and persistent inventory woes. But Apple’s decline was the biggest of the bunch. - Taiwan Semi - slowing production as demand is not there Employment Report - March nonfarm payrolls 236K vs consensus 239K; prior revised to 326K from 311K - March unemployment rate 3.5% vs consensus 3.6%; prior 3.6% - March avg. hourly earnings 0.3% vs.consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2% - March avg. workweek 34.4 hours vs consensus 34.5; prior 34.5 - 25% of the employment gains were in services (restaurants, bars and hotels) Home Price Outlook - Moody's expects 98% of major markets to post a home price decline over the coming year. - According to Zillow, tight supply will make it hard for home prices to fall much heading forward. - Through the first two months of 2023, the biggest home price drops were found in markets like Austin (down 2.5% since December), Boise (down another 2.4%), Las Vegas (down another 2.4%), Phoenix (down another 2.2%), and San Jose (down another 2.1%). - Western US home values seem the most detached from fundamentals according to reports. Bond Yields - Dropped due to banking crisis - Even with FED pressing on - still lower (3.4% on 10-year)| - Heavy Inversion - Recession now the play versus inflation worries Sky Is Falling - Starlink seems to have a problem - Satellites are falling out of orbit and coming back dosn to earth (something Elon will never do) - Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell tracks SpaceX's satellite activity, and said that at present "at least 14" of the company's devices were "on their way down". - Reports show that the satellite in question likely burned up as it attempted to reenter the Earth's atmosphere, meaning traces of it will be incredibly hard to find. AS the Sky is Falling ... - Investors snapping up alternatives - Gold >$2,000 - Silver in rally mode - Bitcoin > $30,000 (but 1 bitcoin is still 1 bitcoin - Ether > $1,900 Meanwhile - Fed is full CYA mode - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday that financial system troubles that drove the central bank to provide large amounts of credit to banks is not collateral damage from the Fed’s aggressive effort to lower inflation.

The end is near - AI taking over they say... OPEC+ Suprise cuts - not the best tine for that move. Some bankers may be in hot water after their recent poor judgement. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - 1st Quarter scores gains - Gold and Silver breaking out - Never let a good crisis go to waste? - More layoffs... Big names making news - OPEC Surprise ! Market Update - Tech BIG winner 1Q 2023 - Yields down -- even though inflation still high - Reflex trades - all tied to rates - More layoffs coming - AI names making a run - with all chatter about AI doomsday ----- FRIDAY MARKETS CLOSED Twitter Logo Update  = Dodgecoin Ramp Happy Passover and Happy Easter (The Usual Holiday Price Drops for Political Purposes) - Bought 5 dozen eggs from Walmart yesterday for $12.75 - Matzah prices coming down as well AI Doomsday ! - They are coming for your job -- The letter, issued by the non-profit Future of Life Institute and signed by more than 1,000 people including Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque, called for a pause on advanced AI development until shared safety protocols for such designs were developed, implemented and audited by independent experts. - Elon Musk and a group of artificial intelligence experts and industry executives are calling for a six-month pause in training of systems more powerful than GPT-4, they said in an open letter, citing potential risks to society and humanity. - The letter also detailed potential risks to society and civilization by human-competitive AI systems in the form of economic and political disruptions, and called on developers to work with policymakers on governance and regulatory authorities. ---AI and Your JOB - -- Goldman Sachs: The boost to global labor productivity could also be economically significant, and nee estimate that AI could eventually increase annual global GDP by 7%. (Savings from less workers... less workers = less $ to spend) - Goldman Sachs Estimates That 300 Million Jobs Will Be Affected By AI In The Future QUESTION: Isn't this the same concerns we had in 2000? AI Banned - Italy has become the first country in the West to ban ChatGPT, the popular artificial intelligence chatbot from U.S. startup OpenAI. - Last week, the Italian Data Protection Watchdog ordered OpenAI to temporarily cease processing Italian users' data amid a probe into a suspected breach of Europe's strict privacy regulations. - How can they do this? Must be workarounds More Tech - Google to cut down on employee laptops, services and staplers for 'multi-year' savings - Google said it's cutting back on fitness classes, staplers, tape, and the frequency of laptop replacements for employees. - “We've been here before," Porat's email stated. "Back in 2008, our expenses were growing faster than our revenue. We improved machine utilization, narrowed our real estate investments, tightened our belt on T&E budgets, cafes, micro kitchens and mobile phone usage, and removed the hybrid vehicle subsidiary.” - “Just as we did in 2008, we’ll be looking at data to identify other areas of spending that is as effective as they should be, or that don’t scale to our size.”  (2008 references???) McDonalds ? - MCDONALD'S has shut down its offices temporarily as the company reportedly prepares for mass staff layoffs. - Corporate employees were instructed to cancel meetings at its headquarters. - The company said in the memo that the layoffs are intended to make McDonald’s more efficient. - “We have a clear opportunity ahead of us to get faster and more effective at solving problems for our customers and people and to globally scale o...

Microsoft Activision deal - back in the spotlight. Bank runs have cooled - but there are still questions. Resilient - yes, that's the word Fed officials will use. Over and over to describe banks. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - More Banks - But not to worry - Odds are for RATE CUTS this year starting July - Chili Cook Off - The Results (ask Andrew about the Cocoa) - Crawfish Boil and BBQ this weekend - What is JCD Doing? - Dueling message on Seaweed Blob - Moores law - Coiner - Dies Market Update - Big Bucks pulled from banks - (they have been screwing depositors for years with low rates) - Big banks getting those Big Bucks - Recession odds increased with all of these problems A Moment - Gordon Moore, the Intel Corp. co-founder whose theory on computer-chip development became the yardstick for progress in the electronics industry, has died. He was 94. Bank Notes - Nearly $100 billion in deposits pulled from banks; officials call system 'sound and resilient' - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and more than a dozen other officials convened a special closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council on Friday. --- "The Council discussed current conditions in the banking sector and noted that while some institutions have come under stress, the U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient," the statement said. - Data released Thursday showed that institutions took a daily average of $116.1 billion of loans from the central bank's discount window, the highest since the financial crisis, and have taken out $53.7 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program. Sunday - Kashkari: “The banking system is resilient, and it’s sound,” Kashkari told Margaret Brennan on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “The banking system has a strong capital position and a lot of liquidity and has the full support of the Federal Reserve and other regulators standing behind it. Now, I’m not saying that all of the stresses are behind us, I expect this process will take some time.” Controversial - Big banks, advising smaller banks... - The dynamic has put big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs in the awkward position of playing multiple roles simultaneously in this crisis. Big banks are advising smaller ones while participating in steps to renew confidence in the system and prop up ailing lenders like First Republic, all while gaining billions of dollars in deposits and being in the position of potentially bidding on assets as they come up for sale. New Programs - Because Banks are Sound - US authorities are considering expanding an emergency lending facility for banks in ways that would give First Republic Bank more time to shore up its balance sheet, according to people with knowledge of the situation. - AND YET - "I think this is more of a Bear Stearns moment. I think a lot of people, including me, said when they bailed out Bear Stearns, they increased moral hazard. They created an expectation of further bailouts," former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair said Friday - "[The government is] trying to imply that all uninsured are protected, which they don't have legal authority to do, frankly, and this is putting pressure on community banks," she said. "It's really troubling." First Citizens Buys Silicon Valley bank - SWEETHEART DEAL - First Citizens BancShares is acquiring $72 billion in SVB assets at a discount of $16.5 billion - But even after the deal closes, the FDIC remains on the hook to dispose of the majority of remaining SVB assets, about $90 billion, which are being kept in receivership. - And the FDIC agreed to an eight-year loss-sharing deal on commercial loans F...

No rest for bankers - weekend overload to quiet markets. COCO bond rug pull - billions lost The Fed in a no-win position this week. Rate decision meeting Wednesday. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Full blown banking crisis - S&P P/E  still above 17+ - Fed has big decision tomorrow - Fed/Treasury dusting off financial crisis playbook - Bond yields move - largest since '87 --- Banks joining in the charade - $30 billion - Whatever you do - don't say bailout! Market Update - Banks failing - forced merger over weekend - Fire sale for deposits - big win for some banks - COCO / ATI Bond massacre - RUG PULL - Tech favored over most other sectors - Goldman says rates hikes over FED GAME - What will the do tomorrow? - ECB Playbook (raise like nothing happening) - Powell Playbook - raise 0.25% and keep pushing that the data is what they look at - try to save face... - Volker Playbook - ram it - Bernanke Playbook - zero or cut GAME ON - We are playing the real life Monopoly - Treasury Secretary Yellen says the govy could backstop more deposits if necessary to stop contagion - - Trillions in deposits  - how would that work? - - - Monopoly Rules: The Bank: The Bank newer "goes broke." If the Bank runs out of money, the Banker may issue as much more as needed by writing on any ordinary paper. ----- Why would Yellen need to say that ??? Asked on Twitter this week: Why do so many investors enjoy throwing hard earned money into dumpster fires? (Follow John at @therealdvorak and Andrew at @andrewhorowitz) Dust off the playbook - Plenty of financial crisis moves being made ---- Have I mentioned that this group of Fed leaders could be the worst in my lifetime? - $30 billion from consortium of banks into First Republic ---- NON insured accounts was the push --- NO WAY is this not backstopped by Fed/Treasury as a attempt to boost confidence. TOTAL BS ----- Meanwhile - investors are not impressed. (Stock down from $29 to $17 since announcement) ---- WAIT - NEWS BREAKING MONDAY - JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) Dimon is leading talks with bank executives of others banks about new FRC plans; deal could involve converting previously announced $30 bln in deposits into a capital infusion, according to WSJ ----- NO Correction out - that may bot be the way they want to go .... Just spitting at the wall with ideas it seems -- Meanwhile after 47% drop yesterday, FRC up 36% Tuesday (still down 90% from peak) Remarkable - Yields up from ZERO - Earnings down and falling - Global banking crisis - S&P 500 forward P/E at 17.9 - PEG at 1.8! Credit Suisse  COCO - UBS buys for pennies on the dollar - COCO bonds (Contingent Convertible bonds) - wiped out - $17 billion lost as regulators write down bonds to ZERO - COCOs - high-yield investments with a hand grenade attached (AKA ATI bonds) --- They’re essentially a cross between a bond and a stock that helps banks bolster capital to meet regulations designed to prevent failure. They’re contingent in the sense that their status can change if a bank’s capital levels fall below a specified level; they’re convertible because in many cases they can be turned into equity Forced Merger - Credit Suisse bought by UBS - In a package orchestrated by Swiss regulators on Sunday, UBS Group AG will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse Group AG  and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses. (80% discount) - The Swiss central bank said Sunday's deal includes 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) in liquidity assistance for UBS and Credit Suisse. Fed Decision - Holding 2-day decision on rates today and tomorrow

Banks get smoked as depositors run scared. Fortunately we get a Sunday Night STICK SAVE! We have some bones to pick - bad math and even worse work ethics. Where are the bargains? We have some thoughts. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from Central America! - Largest bank failure since 2008! - Fed will keep raising until something breaks - HELLO!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Worst Fed Ever! - General lack of any business sense - math clearly not a priority in last generations - - No attention to detail - oversight sucks- management is limp - Sunday Night STICK SAVE! (A joint statement from the various regulators involved said there would be no bailouts and no taxpayer costs associated with any of the new plans. ) Market Update - Capitalism is Dead - Moral Hazard Lives On! - 2-day panic attack with region banks - SVB Blowup - DJIA down for the year - California Banking system is imploding - RUN-ON-Bank - CPI - not slowing down too much - 6% YoY - Everyone now banking on less Fed hikes due to banking crisis - or none... Or cuts! (85% chance for 0.25% increase next week) Coming up this week on Andrew's TDI Podcast - Guest, Anthony Scarramucci BONE TO PICK - All these tik-tok nubes  - want to be a millionaire but have no idea what that means - LET me explain something from someone who works with lots of money all the time... It takes work and then more work - - You can't just make it, you need to keep it. That is just as hard. ---- Making it is not just seeing it on social media - it is a grind and something special - hard work - which it seems is not what people want. ----- Sit at home, no oversight, playing on phone, personal time and personal boundaries that are above work AND not watching the details. --- This is what creates the mess we see today - Then we want government to bail us out! Childish! Assuming everyone knows what happened. Right? - Banks started to get squeezed as assets/loan valuations got crushed under higher rates - Fed pushed hard and banks did not risk adjust - Bad oversight  - SVB - Moodys was going to downgrade, Theil makes some noise about problems, stock offering to raise capital, sold bonds at loss - run on bank - Started with other banks and the problems from overlevearaging with Crypto - all the dominoes falling had to impact firms (tech pulling cash to meet needs, other companies trimming up) - Realization hit that regional banks could have more problems The Fed is Actually Looking At Itself - EPIC lack of oversight, blinders on as usual - The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced that Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr is leading a review of the supervision and regulation of Silicon Valley Bank, in light of its failure. The review will be publicly released by May 1. - "The events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank demand a thorough, transparent, and swift review by the Federal Reserve," said Chair Jerome H. Powell. - "We need to have humility, and conduct a careful and thorough review of how we supervised and regulated this firm, and what we should learn from this experience," said Vice Chair Barr. - There will be findings, many many months out as to how they could have done better, but nothing will come of it. ----- Fox guarding the hen house. Should be independent but Fed is above it all - right? Late Call - Or is it Early? - Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment' - The firm, part of the big three rating services, said it was making the move in light of three key failures that prompted regulators to step in Sunday with a dramatic rescue plan for depositors and other i...

China making moves. Elon gets his crown back and reversal of fortunes. March is just ahead - rates could spoil the party. Baby Bonds are back on the menu... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Lots of News - same old... - China making moves - Elon gets the crown back - Jamie Dimon Speaks Up - Cool Update From Apple - And Baby Bonds .... Market Update - A down month - short and out - Large Cap Growth - Beating Large Cap Value this year (small caps tied) - S&P 500 up ~ 4% for 2023 NASDAQ 100 up 10%! - Bonds - taking back some of the last month gains - Gold, Silver walking back on higher USD - Switcheroo ***NO SHOW NEXT WEEK**** Inflation - Not Giving Up - - The U.S. Federal Reserve may hike interest rates to nearly 6%, BofA Global Research said, as strong U.S. consumer demand and a tight labor market would force the central bank to battle inflation for longer. - PPI, CPI and PCE come in hot... - Don't think this is all over, but clearly not moving as fast - looks like we will settle in this area for a while Vape Wars - Altria Group Inc. is in discussions to acquire vaping startup Njoy Holdings Inc. for at least $2.75 billion in cash, according to people with knowledge of the situation. - A deal could be announced as soon as this week, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. There is also $500 million in follow-up payments if Njoy hits certain regulatory milestones, the people said. - Altria recently wrote down the value of its investment in Juul to $450 million. The decision to end the noncompete “maximizes our flexibility to compete in the e-vapor space while maintaining our economic interest in Juul,” Altria said in a statement. - BUT - original investment was $13 billion - GENIUS PLAN - kill the vaping industry so cigarettes are back in vogue China Area - Great slow play for markets... - Turn from ZERO-Covid to 100% - then keep rolling out more and more - Hong Kong will drop its COVID-19 mask mandate, chief executive John Lee said on Tuesday, in a move to lure back visitors and business and restore normal life more than three years after stringent rules were first imposed in the financial hub. (945 days) - ---- Egg Freezing - A member of China's top political advisory body said she would propose allowing unmarried women to access egg freezing as a measure to preserve their fertility after the country's population fell last year for the first time in six decades. ----------- Lu's recommendations come as authorities try to bolster a faltering birth rate with incentives including expanding maternity leave, financial and tax benefits for having children as well as housing subsidies. More China - China Renaissance Holdings said in an exchange filing on Sunday that its missing chairman and star dealmaker Bao Fan was currently cooperating with relevant Chinese authorities conducting an investigation. - Reuters previously reported, citing sources, that authorities took Bao away earlier this month to assist in an investigation into a former colleague, Cong Lin, the company's former president. Even More China - Chinese authorities have urged state-owned firms to phase out using the four biggest international accounting firms, signaling continued concerns about data security even after Beijing reached a landmark deal to allow US audit inspections on hundreds of Chinese firms listed in New York. Target Earnings - Target (TGT) reported a quarter similar to Walmart's (WMT) last week with a solid Q4 beat on the top and bottom line offset by weak guidance for Q1 and FY23. Q4 adj. EPS fell 41% from an impossible comp while comp sales grew 0.

Markets are feeling the pain of a Fed that just can't make up its mind. Earnings from retail - not so good. Global warming is the reason for this all! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A quick apology to Hobby Lobby - Inflation ticking up - CPI and PPI not what the market wanted - Change up, this Zip Code - now most expensive in country - Arctic melt is coming - Doomsday Glacier - WHAT? Water BillFlation - Announcing the Winner of the CTP ! Market Update - Bullard and Mester - Not liking the markets euphoria (50bps talk coming back) -- Ever since they opened their mouth - market been in a tailspin - Bird Flu - expanding - watch out chicken and egg prices - Tesla flying high - stock back in vogue - All-time high's for this country's main stock market - Earnings finishing off - mixed bag, but points to concerning quarters to come Bad Bullard (H/T Bespoke) Bullard Speaks Continuing on.... - Worst day of the year today... - S&P 500 Down 2%, DJIA off by 700pts (2%, NASDAQ down 2.5% - 10-year climbing toward 4% again| - Blame placed on unusual strength of the economy - turning better last several weeks. Water Bill - $1,578 this month at the house - that is inflation! - Full Story - No Leaks Hot Real Estate - Miami’s Star Island is now the nation’s most expensive neighborhood while the number of New York City areas where buying a home would set you back at least $1 million is on the decline, according to a new survey. - The average price of a single family home on Star Island, the man-made enclave off the coast of Miami Beach that is home to celebrities including Shaquille O’Neal, Gloria Estefan, and Rosie O’Donnell, was valued at an eye-popping $40.2 million as of December, according to Zillow. - 71% increase over 3 years - Star Island is now four times as expensive as Beverly Hills Gateway in Beverly Hills - NY real estate not lagging behind by much --- January average rent for Manhattan apartment - ALL TIME HIGH Bird Flu - Could bolster inflation (food) again - Outbreaks of the virus have continued in North and South America, Europe, Asia and Africa - Farmers thinking about vaccines - once unheard of - A company farm in Weld County, Colorado, was infected twice within about six months, killing more than 3 million chickens, Rust said. He thinks wind blew the virus in from nearby fields where geese defecated. Twitter - The Taco Bell of social media - introducing a new product update almost daily - Twitter said on Friday it will allow only paid subscribers to use text messages as a two-factor authentication (2FA) method to secure their accounts. - The company believes phone-number-based 2FA is being abused by "bad actors," - Twitter owner Elon Musk tweeted "Yup" in reply to a user tweet that the company was changing policy "because Telcos Used Bot Accounts to Pump 2FA SMS," and that the company was losing $60 million a year "on scam SMS." Glacier melting - Antarctica's vast Thwaites Glacier - nicknamed the Doomsday Glacier - say warm water is seeping into its weak spots, worsening melting caused by rising temperatures - Thwaites, which is roughly the size of Florida, represents more than half a meter (1.6 feet) of global sea level rise potential, and could destabilize neighboring glaciers that have the potential to cause a further three-meter (9.8-foot) rise. - Is this concern all about the displacement of the above the line ice? Brexit - Who Cares - The FTSE 100 is at an all-time high. - With all of the problems in Europe, world... ALL TIME HIGH - Obviously the best decision England made was to leave the EU Cisco Earnings

The sky is falling - literally. We are seeing markets applaud spending cuts - but how far does that reach? An update on inflation and the Fed's latest shenanigans. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Superbowl - thoughts on adverts/halftime? - Jesus Gets Us - Big news at the BOJ - Crypto Under Fire - AI frenzy seems over already - Kanye West Fallout continues - Soft Landing - Really? Market Update - Inflation ticks up again - UFO sightings and not much concern (Aliens) - Biden Eco Team shuffle - Inflation comes in a bit hot - markets shrug - What is making market move? Interesting insight - Parade of Fed speakers this week - mostly trying to sell their story (markets deaf to it) Happy Valentines Day! - Great time for a donation of either $214 or even $14 - Anyone that donated $214 will get a personally signed copy of my book - The Disciplined Investor - Essential Strategies for Success Soft landing - A soft landing by a central bank is when "the central bank tightens monetary policy to fight inflation but does not cause a recession." If it causes a recession, then it is a hard landing. - If there is a "soft landing" then there is going to be perpetual higher prices| - How is that possible knowing the economic cycles? Inflation Update - CPI comes in at 0.50% today (prior was 0.1%) - YoY 6.4% - Some serious concern that inflation may be much more sticky than thought ---- Potential 0.25% increase for more meetings and higher terminal rate - MARKETS DO NOT CARE Morning Meeting - Breakfast with big shot from Merrill today - Message, it will be messy but just stay invested - made some odd comments about valuation and earnings and just rushed past them - AH had sidebar with him.. Asked about the comment of $200 projected earnings for SP500 - -- Infers P/E forward of 20+ - Asked about his overweight US if better value elsewhere --- He said that makes sense of course, yeah ----- These guys are full of crap What is actually powering market? - Slashes, Cuts and Layoffs - - - Spending cuts, layoffs and other creative money saving --- Let's take that apart and see what we get - WHY???? Earnings for S&P 500 companies are down 23% YoY Updates - Yahoo plans to lay off more than 20% of its total 8,600 workforce as part of a major restructuring. - Many other companies are cutting back on CapEX and other expansion plans - Markets applauding when they see companies are practicing fiscal restraint - Financial Services also cutting Tech Layoffs ECO Team Shuffle - President Joe Biden has decided to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard as his top economic adviser, with an announcement coming as soon as Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said. - In addition, according to the people, Jared Bernstein, a member of the Council of Economic Advisers, is considered likely to be named its chair, replacing Cecilia Rouse, who is stepping down. BOJ Changes - Kazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, succeeding current central bank chief Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. - Kuroda was first appointed in March 2013 - Kishida recently emphasized the need for the next central bank governor to have "global communication skills" and be able to coordinate closely with global peers - There was some worry about Kishida not being as DOVISH as Kuroda (very difficult shoes to fill) Starting with $20 Million on Jesus - The “He Gets Us” ads, which directed viewers to a website to learn more about Jesus, were funded by Hobby Lobby CEO David Green and a string of other anonymous Christian donors. (Donor advised funds and

Superbowl mania - what we think (not that anyone cares) China balloons, market bubbles and plenty of frothy convo. An update on the Weekly Stock pick's game and the current Closest to the Pin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Superbowl teams are set - Eagles and Kansas City (spread +1.5 KC) - Markets have a very amateurish feel to them - crypto patterns of intraday rush and bust --- Meme Stocks moving again - Seems that the Church of Whats Hot Now - back in Biz (AI names) -- Latest Google, Baidu and Microsoft all announced AI integration today (catnip for traders) - There is a Sushi Terrorist on the loose - Hustle Bros are latching on and sucking your wallets - A new FED word to watch Market Update - Blowout Jobs report - what in tar-nation? - Another fraud uncovered - India - State of the Union Speech - going after the wealthy... - Powell speaks - Whipsaw Golf Fitting this week.. - Pretty interesting technology - Callaway Paradym X MARKETS! - The S&P 500 index rose 1.6% last week with the communication services and technology sectors leading a broad climb amid better-than-expected quarterly results from some companies and a slower pace of rate increases from the Federal Open Market Committee. - The market benchmark ended the week at 4,136.48, up from last Friday's closing level of 4,070.56. The index is now up 7.7% for the year to date but down 8.1% from a year ago. - This feels like an attempt to move off bottom like everyone in the pool from March/April 2020. (But this is a different time) Fed Speak - There was irrational exuberance - Transitory inflation - Green shoots - quantitative easing - not thinking about thinking about thinking about... - Average inflation targeting - balance outlook - And Now, introducing the work - disinflation... Powell used dozens of times in last speeches... Earnings Update - The slowdown in YoY revenue growth... Tesla: slowest since 2020 Amazon: 3rd slowest in company history Microsoft: slowest since 2017 Netflix: slowest in company history Google: 3rd slowest in company history Facebook: 2nd slowest in company history Apple: slowest since 2016 - BP on Tuesday reported a record profit of $28 billion for 2022 while boosting its dividend in a sign of confidence as it sharply raised overall spending plans and scaled back ambitions to reduce oil and gas output by 2030. MEME Stocks Moving again - BBBY (looking at potential bankruptcy) up 100%  today. - AI Stocks on the move - KOSS, GME, AMC all rocking....  Fed decision  and Employment Report? -- Odds rise after the the BLS employment report - 500k + new hires (estimates were for +250k) - labor participation rate rising - 3.4% unemployment rate (lowest since 1969) - USD jumps, Rates turn higher - Thoughts? State of the Union Speech - CNBC reports President Biden will call for quadrupling the tax on stock buybacks and a 'billionaire minimum tax' in his State of the Union speech tonight Earnings  and corporate -Amazon, Google, Apple -all had questionable earnings reports - Apple showed worst revenue groth in years and years - stock came off then buyers stepped in for some reason - Amazon was down as AWS missed - Google (Alphabet) just bad all the way around. - FORD - ugly outlook, loss and not at all what GM looked like. - Dell slashing 6,000 jobs (5% of workforce) ----!!! Company up initially on the news, then falls 3% during session ------ ALERT, Job cuts may no longer be seen as a good thing (Investors were rewarding companies) - HP cutting 6,000 jobs - Chipotle - Misses on earnings (top and bottom) - guidance soft (slowing growth/comps)

A new CTP announced - the first one for 2023. There is a new buzzword and it moves stocks pretty substantially. Big week ahead, earnings and the FED - coming at us at full speed. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Superbowl teams are set - Eagles and Kansas City - Big week for Earnings (big boys) and Fed rate decision (Wednesday) - People perplexed - why are multiples staying so strong with all the info at hand? - Expectations for Friday's employment report? Market Update - January ends on a good note. NAZ up about 10%, DJIA +2%, Long Bond ETF +7%, Bitcoin up 39%, Gold up 5.6% - On Above -> yields down , dollar down (exact opposite of most of 2022) - Car Companies - charging up the EV race - EuroZone surprise ECO - Interesting study on stock performance after earnings  Fed decision? -- Odds are leaning to a 0.25% increase - Thoughts? Earnings Stats - So far this earnings season, companies in the S&P 500 that MISS estimates are outperforming the S&P by 1.4% - On the flip side, those companies that have beat expectations have slightly underperformaed the S&P 500 - Per Goldman, stocks that have missed Q4 earnings estimates thus far are outperforming the S&P 500 by 140 bps the following session, performing better than stocks beating EPS, first time this has happened with data going back to 2006 - Theories? More Earnings - FVCBankcorp (FVCB) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.45 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. - This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -43.75%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.48, delivering a surprise of 2.13%. - Stock smoked on the news.... GM Earnings - General Motors (GM +8%) is trading higher after the automotive giant reported Q4 results this morning. GM reported big upside for both EPS and revenue. GM also guided FY23 EPS to $6.00-7.00, which was better than analyst estimates, and to FY23 adjusted EBIT of $10.5-12.5 bln. - GM also announced it will make an equity investment of up to $650 mln in Lithium Americas (LAC). The two companies will jointly invest to develop the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, which is the largest known source of lithium in the US and the third largest in the world. Cardboard - Cardboard box demand drops to lowest level since 2008 -- Bad for Amazon? - Meanwhile International Paper (IP) up 8% SURPRISE!! The euro zone grew 0.1% in the last quarter of 2022, according to preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday. - Expectations were for a -0.1% .... so not that far off and potential that revisions could take it down - The region has been under significant pressure in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as high food and energy costs compounded long-standing supply chain bottlenecks. - Germany was the worst in the grouping - GDP down -0.2% in 4th quarter AND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised upward its global growth projections for the year, but warned that higher interest rates and Russia's invasion of Ukraine would likely still weigh on activity. - 2.9% is the updated outlook, a 0.2% increase. DOWN fro 3.4% expected back in 2022 - Much of the upgrade is probably due to CHINA reopening. Follow Up - Robo Lawyer - Last week DoNotPay CEO Joshua Browder announced that the company's AI chatbot would represent a defendant in a U.S. court, marking the first use of artificial intelligence for this purpose.

Europe is not the hot investment ticket. The markets like all the bad news - layoffs, weak economics. A big trade in 2022 pays off - billions and billions. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Mondays and Fridays - Let's just invest on those days. - AH and China Covid Update - Biggest Trade EVA - Firings/layoffs/staff reductions the new "good news" - Getting the feeling that we are all obsolete - layoffs and AI Market Update - Quick Check - Big action, not much change. Markets sit about where there were last week this time - Debt Ceiling is the next screw up for this administration - will push an pull (for no reason) - Activists are getting busy - Elliot in on a big name - Europe in play again - All of a sudden CTP STOCK? China - COVID UPDATE - The possibility of a big COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have been infected, a prominent government scientist said on Saturday. - Do we have any working heories why they just gave up on COVID lockdowns? Europe - Target prices raised - Warmer temperatures and well-filled gas storage facilities mean there's less concern about power shortages and sky-high energy bills. - JPMorgan has raised its forecast for euro zone first-quarter economic growth to 1% from a contraction of 0.5% - Goldman upgrades as well - $ net inflows to European equity funds last week - first time in a year - In terms of valuations, European blue-chips are trading at a multiple of around 13, compared with a ratio of around 20 for the S&P 500 - Note: H&C has been continuing to add to non-US exposure for portfolios EuroStocks Euro and Gas Prices Growth in EU Big Play - Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and one of history’s most successful financial plays. - Citadel’s gain was the largest annual return for a hedge fund manager, surpassing the $15 billion that John Paulson generated in 2007 on his bet against subprime mortgages. Activists at the Gate - Salesforce shares gained more than 5% premarket Monday on news that activist investor Elliott Management has reportedly taken a multibillion-dollar stake in the cloud-based software giant. - Closed up 3% - If they are successful they will look for more "efficiencies" (job cuts) and potentially shedding low margin business sectors (Slack) Regulators at the gate -  The U.S. Department of Justice and several states filed a lawsuit against Google alleging that it illegally monopolized the market for online ads through years of self-dealing, anticompetitive acquisitions, and forcing businesses to use the products and services that it offers. The lawsuit could lead to a breakup of Google’s advertising business. Matt Kent, competition policy advocate for Public Citizen, released the following statement: - - “Nowhere is Big Tech’s monopoly power more apparent than in Google’s domination of the digital advertising market. One company cannot be permitted to control every layer of the market that, for better or worse, is the lifeblood of online commerce and our digital lives. The Justice Department is continuing its strong trend under AAG Kanter of taking on monopolists rather than negotiating with them.” Here is the Green Light for Firing - Wayfair — Recent news of layoffs and also reality of negative profits (aka losses) and poor financials... BUT - The online retailer jumped more than 26% after being double upgraded to overweight from underweight by JPMorgan. - The Wall Street firm cited improving market share trends and a better grasp on spending from management.

Financials reporting - mixed results. All much worse than a year ago.The HOPE trade is looking for a kindlier and gentler Fed. China has an interesting update on their population. Yield Curve inversion is real - pay attention. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Market in Rally Mode - Climate Change at Davos, ESG defended (should be defunded) - China releases population studies - Mega Million > $1.35 Billion (ONE WINNER!) - Biden classified docs - wow,  unforced error there. Market Update - Quick Check - January 2023 - SP500 +4.2%, TLT +7.22%, QQQ +7%, EEM 9%, BTC +28%, FXI +13.5%, GLD +5% - USD Basket 2023 Down 1%, 3 Months - 9% - Bank earnings - mixed, watching for margins and outlook for remainder - Bond yields pricing in easier Fed - 10Y @ 3.5% - EU hints on slowing rate hikes - maybe only 0.25% at next meeting. Deflation Talk ? Commodity Prices Housing Deflation? Housing Prices (CS20) AH Tweet:  - If you were wondering - not just a flash in the pan occurrence. Yield curve clearly and definitively inverted. Will discuss tomorrow night on DHUnplugged Podcast. Inversion Speaking of the USD - Morgan Stanley cut its 2023 year-end forecast for the dollar index to 98, and expects the greenback's weakness to be more pronounced against the euro this year as worries about the severity of an economic downturn start to ease. - They previously saw the index , which weighs the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, ending 2023 at 104. - Global growth is showing signs of buoyancy, macro and inflation uncertainty are waning and the USD is rapidly losing its carry advantage USD Weakness? Change in Central Bank Policy? Bond Vigilantes attack - Yields on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds breached the central bank's new ceiling on Friday in the market's most direct challenge yet to decades of uber-easy monetary policy. - A wall of selling catapulted 10-year Japanese government bond yields 4 basis points higher to 0.54%, the highest since mid-2015 and above a recently widened band of -0.5% to +0.5% set by the BOJ in a shock decision just a few weeks ago. - No more negative yields - anywhere in the world ----- This is where it gets interesting - The stress was evident across the yield curve and defied the BOJ's announcement on Friday of a fresh round of emergency buying worth around 1.4 trillion yen ($10.84 billion), when it already holds 80% to 90% of some bond lines. --- BOJ owns more than 50% of all bonds issued from Japan (Eating your own arm because you are hungry) Europe Off The Hook for Deep Recession? - Europe experienced its second-warmest year on record in 2022, European Union scientists said on Tuesday, as climate change unleashed record-breaking weather extremes that slashed crop yields, dried up rivers and led to thousands of deaths. - This was big concern due to Nat Gas Pricing and Oil (Russia related) - - Now said that Europe may not enter recession.... ---- In other words, they have no idea as early in the Winter and anything can happen - but betting warm conditions continue? Back to Davos - Climate activists protested in Davos on Sunday against the role of big oil firms at this week's World Economic Forum (WEF), saying they were hijacking the climate debate. (In other words, they are disagreeing with Climate activists and they don't like that) - And here who is saying this: "We are demanding concrete and real climate action," said Nicolas Siegrist, the 26-year old organiser of the protest who also heads the Young Socialists party in Switzerland. - With ESG crapola under scrutiny - there is an opening here

Greatest scam ever! Keep em' FAT! 2023 outlook - what comes next. Updates on New Years and the weather in Cali. Announcing the winner of the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back at it! Happy New Year - Fed still walking the walk - Monday - Holiday - Greatest scam ever! Keep em' FAT! - New Speaker - Wore them down - McCarthy ! Market Update - Rolling over into the EOY 2022 - Lots of talk about Higher Rates for Longer - 3.5% Unemployment? - Earnings start to roll in this week - JPM, WFC, C, BAC - Recession - Yield Curve Still Inverted, Key Indicators Rolled over California weather update - What is going on?  Asset Classes 2022 Asset Class 2022 Sectors  2022 Sectors 2022 S&P 500 Valuations Simple Math - 2 components of valuations made easy - earnings and confidence growth can be maintained - Earnings - last year $215 - exp 2023 $225 - Multiple = Confidence of Growth (Currently at 17 forward) - Recessions usually under 15 (way under) Simple Math Employment Report - Better (lower) wage growth got markets moving - 3.5% unemployment (from 3.7%) - 235k +/- jobs added - Manufacturing jobs lagging - Markets offsided - moved up big after report digested - US Dollar sank, metals rose, Yields came in GDP Report - Latest quarter shows expansion - but.... ISM Blended Composite - Services finally moved under 50 - full contraction now ISM Composite Da' Fed - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday stressed that central bank policymakers remain committed to wrestling high inflation under control, even though the methods to do so can prove to be politically unpopular. - Speech today seems to warn that the Fed is not going to back down, even if it hurts the economy. - "Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time," Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery at a conference held by Sweden's central bank. "But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy." Musk News - Richard Branson said that Elon showed up on his kitchen at 2:30 am ? - Branson said he woke up in the middle of the night to find the SpaceX CEO barefoot in his kitchen downstairs with his fast asleep baby X Æ A-12 after a staff member had let him in. WHAT????????????? - TESLA - Cut prices in China - Backlash! ---- Elon Musk was the second person ever to amass a personal fortune of more than $200 billion, breaching that threshold in January 2021, months after Jeff Bezos. ----- The Tesla Inc. chief executive officer has now achieved a first of his own: becoming the only person in history to erase $200 billion from their net worth. TESLA ---- Disgruntled Tesla Inc. owners swarmed showrooms in China over the weekend to complain about missing out on another round of price cuts as the company tries to boost sales in the world’s biggest electric-vehicle market. - Meanwhile - Tesla's Chinese suppliers jumped after the electric automaker slashed prices for some models in China. ---- Now almost 40% cheaper in China as compared to US prices) ----- Price cuts as China ends EV subsidy (news pounded China EV plays) - Shares of Anhui Shiny Electronic Technology closed 8.8% higher and Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics gained nearly 9%. Zhejiang China Electrics closed 7.92% higher and Shandong Jinjing Science & Tech rose more than 6%. Wells Fargo - Instead of its previous goal of reaching as many Americans as possible, the company will now focus on home loans for existing bank an...

A chronological compilation, separated by subject from DHUnplugged Podcasts aired in 2022. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!   DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Looking back at 2020 we covered a good amount of ground. Some laughs and deep insights on the markets. Listener Ryan Rediske put together a series of compilations by subject chronologically. He spent an enormous amount of time pulling clips from shows from 2021 and then stitched them together for this episode. Follow Ryan on Twitter   Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  

A chronological compilation, separated by subject from DHUnplugged Podcasts aired in 2022. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!   DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Looking back at 2020 we covered a good amount of ground. Some laughs and deep insights on the markets. Listener Ryan Rediske put together a series of compilations by subject chronologically. He spent an enormous amount of time pulling clips from shows from 2021 and then stitched them together for this episode. Follow Ryan on Twitter   Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  

Twitter in the news - what a surprise. China Covid policy shaking things up. Year end moves that we are watching. Update on the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Questioning integrity of Twitter - Trump sells out NFT collection - Losing streak for NAZ continues - Throwing in the towel on 2022 Market Update - Rolling over into the EOY 2022 - Lead Blanket Discussion - Yen Rallies - Massive move after Surprise Move - FedEx and Nike Earnings just released - Economics Upcoming... Earthquake in California 6.4? - North of San Fran....... Markets - MTD Dec 2022 - SPY    - 6.5% - QQQ   - 8% - TLT   +0.52% - IWM - 7.5% - EEM  - 4.25% Year To Date - By The Numbers YTD 2022 Yen Surprise - Almost 4% gain TODAY YTD 2022 Nike Earnings - NIKE beats by $0.20, beats on revs, gross margin down 300 bps, which is better than its prior guidance of down 350-400 bps; North America up 30%, Greater China down 3% - Stock up 12% A/H FedEx Earnings - FedEx beats by $0.36, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, reduces capital spending outlook by $400 mln; expects to generate FY23 cost savings of approx. $3.7 bln - - - Second quarter results were constrained by continued demand weakness, particularly at FedEx Express. - - - FedEx Express operating income declined 64% year-over-year due to lower global volumes, partially offset by an 8% package yield increase. - - - FedEx Ground operating income increased 24% year-over-year, due primarily to a 13% yield increase and cost reduction actions. - - - FedEx Freight operating income increased 32% year-over-year, driven by an 18% yield increase. - Not a great outlook overall from management - but maybe better than feared? - Stock up slightly A/H Economic Data on Tap - This week - Consumer Confidence (Tomorrow) GDP (3) Leading Indicators (Thursday), Durable Orders, PCE Prices and Personal income and Spending (Friday) - Last week's Retail Sale (-.6%) Retail Sales Highlights (Briefing.com) - Total retail sales, which are not adjusted for price changes, declined 0.6% month-over-month in November (Consensus -0.1%) - Retail sales, excluding autos, fell 0.2% month-over-month (Consensus +0.2%). Key Factors - Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales declined 2.3% following a 1.6% increase in October. - Furniture and home furnishing store sales declined 2.6% following a 2.0% increase in October. - Electronics and appliance store sales fell 1.5% following a 0.9% decline in October. - Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers sales declined 2.5% following a 1.3% increase in October. - General merchandise sales dipped 0.1%, paced by a 2.9% decline in department store sales, following a 0.3% decline in October. - Clothing and clothing accessories store sales dropped 0.2% after being flat in October. - Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book store sales declined 0.6% following a 0.7% increase in October. - Gasoline station sales slipped 0.1% following a 4.8% increase in October. Musk Items - Please explain the use of polls to do his dirty work? - Using "public" to choose outcome  by wording question/poll to what he expects? - ---  Also, can't he just push the numbers to gain his desired outcome. --- FOLLOW UP - Poll to see if he should step down as Twitter CEO ------ TSLA stock cap down $600-700 BILLION since high - much attributed to Twitter nonsense -- -OH NOW - Voting on Policy will be only for Blue Members Twitter Seeks Infusion - Elon Musk’s team has reached out to investors to raise new funds for his struggling social media platform Twitter, one of the investors said.

Make up your mind - China unhappy about everything. Yellen says inflation to cool. CPI comes in a bit better than feared. What is in store for the end of 2022 and into 2023? Announcing the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing Winner of latest CTP AND Entries for the CTP Cup 2022 - China lockdowns - scaring citizens - End of the year - Goodbye 2022 - People still concerned about 2023 - Musk boo'd ay Dave Chapelle stand-up - China - from zero-Covid to 100% Covid - Markets convulsing.... - Sam Bankman Fried Jailed - or just Sam Bankman NotFree or Sam Bankman Jailed Market Update -The S&P 500 index fell 3.4% last week as investors worried that a recent round of better-than-expected economic data might prompt the Federal Reserve to keep its key rate higher for longer. - All of the S&P 500's sectors fell last week. -- Energy had the largest percentage drop, down 8.4%, followed by communication services, which slid 5.4%, and consumer discretionary, which fell 4.5%. Other decliners included financials, down 3.9%; and technology and materials, which slipped 3.3% each. The smallest decline came from utilities, which edged down 0.3%. - All eyes are the Fed meeting this week - FOMC rate decision on Thursday (75% prob of a 50 basis point hike) - CPI Report released today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing turn of events... 2022 Exit Plan - Investors have good deal of capital losses - End of year could see some selling to book those deductions - - If that happens, look for a big January Effect mid January 2023 - Investors seem mentally exhausted from 2022 - get biz done now until end of year and "hope" for a more pleasant 2023 - 2023 may be  just as volatile as Fed not done CPI Report - Lighter than feared - markets go bananas on the print (November Core CPI 0.2% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3%) -  Total CPI was up "only" 7.1%, versus 7.7% in October, and core-CPI was up "only" 6.0%, versus 6.3% in October. - 10 year moves to 3.44%, USD drops hard, Stock futures soar - CME Fed Funds Futures at 79% for a 50 bps hike; One month ago it was at 80.6% (Meeting on Dec 14) CPI REPORT REACTION CPI Report Reaction One Musk - Got on stage at Dave Chapelle stand up concert - - Introduced as the world's richest person (which he no longer  is - Bernie Arnault took over - LVMH) - Supposedly significant # of people booing - (San Francisco venue) - Video of event ripped down off of Twitter (This is the problem - what happened to free speech?) CTP for 2022 - Past Winners Only for the CUP Marcus Galliford David Norman Paul Retzlaff Simon Lutzenberger Michael Devietro Matheau Phillips Rusty Shacklefordd DJIA is the index you will be guessing - you have until 12/21/2022 to enter. - Emails went out to all of you - NO ONE ELSE ENTER - Your price guess will be deleted if you are not the someone mentioned above. Not Pretty Fixed (Broken) Income Returns $600 = 1099K - Venmo, Paypal over $600 will be reported to IRS - Supposed to be for business transactions --- IRS admits, some personal transactions may be coded incorrectly - - BUT, all income is required to be reported, so this impacts you if you have not been compliant - - - ODD - Zelle is not reporting any transactions to the IRS.... -- - - - Zelle itself said it does not have to declare transactions made through the payment service because it is a network that does not hold the funds 2023 - Collection Social Security? - "Your Social Security benefits will increase by 8.7% in 2023 because of a rise in cost of living," the Social Security Administration states in the annual statem...

End of year gameplan - Is a Santa Rally in the cards - or have we seen the last of that for a while? Oil on the move - new sanctions against Russia... The yield curve inversion is very telling. Employment Report - Stronger than anticipated. The economy isn't slowing enough. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Monkeys can breath a sigh of relief - Marital Affair - just don't vaca in Indonesia - Santa Rally or Grinch-Off? - Employment report - not slowing enough - Apple - On and Off of Twitter Market Update - November - Good Start to EOY Seasonality - Rates down (4.25% -> 3.50% on 10YR) - Yield Curve Inversion - Oil Prices DOWN - even on latest Europe news  of Price caps - Overextended excitement post Powell speech - starting to fade  Economy Picking Up Steam? (October Numbers) - New orders for durable goods rose 1.1% m/m in October after increasing 0.2% in September. - New orders for nondurable goods increased 1.0% m/m in October after increasing 0.3% in September. - Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business spending -- were up 0.6% m/m in October after declining 0.7% in September. - Good news = Bad news Yield Curve Current Curve Inversion - Inversion at this magnitude is tough on economy - Banks slow lending - Less money to be made by developers (traditional users of leverage) - An inverted yield curve in U.S. Treasuries has predicted every recession since 1955, with only one false signal during that time. China - Re-Opening or False Hope? - Stocks - especially Hong Kong (Hang Seng) up 4.5% overnight as hope for new rules mean China relaxing - Looks like HOPE that China is going to all of a sudden reverse all of their recent policies. Tesla - Slowing - Bloomberg broke a story that the electric vehicle maker is cutting its December Model Y production by 20% at its Shanghai plant. - Of course Telsa rebutting that pretty fast - The report also comes on the heels of a 5-10% price cut in October for TSLA's Model 3 and Model Y in China, and this ominous tweet from Elon Musk on November 30: "Trend is concerning. Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. They are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession." - BUT - Some buyers in the U.S. are holding off on making a purchase until January 1, when the new $7,500 tax credit kicks in. Therefore, any weakness seen in December could be made up in January as buyers look to take advantage of the incentives. MPOX - New name and Out of Sight - Mpox is expected to no longer be considered a public health emergency in the United States from Feb. 1, 2023, the U.S. health department said on Friday. - The months-long declaration was meant to tackle the largest-ever outbreak of cases in the country. - The move signals that the crisis, which led to a spate of cases mostly among men who have sex with men, has come under control and would no longer require an emergency status meant to shore up funding and tools to fight the disease. Interested in this... - Hoka sneakers? --- Like walking on pillows - Owned by? Deckers (UGG Shoes) - DECK symbol - Stock has held up pretty well this year Another Stock Idea - IBKR - was promoted in Barron's over the weekend - The electronic brokerage firm, which offers active investors sophisticated trading tools and low commissions, recently reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.08, handily beating the consensus estimate of 96 cents. Net revenue of $847 million set a quarterly record, too, rising 18% quarter over quarter, and 30% year over year. - Stock in good position, slightly down on year - Multiple currencies,

Crude oil not liking the lockdowns. Entering a new phase of COVID-19...Permanent China closure next? November aiming to be another positive month for stocks as PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Big Tippers No More - Change in  trend - What is happening to oil prices? - End of Year CTP working on.... - Charity Sporting Clays this week - Invited to Shoot - iPhone production snafu Market Update - November trying for an up month - BONDS - Yields Down - Prices Up (November) - USD Down 4.5% in November - Gold Silver, perform well - But CRUDE? You see that? (Same crap today) - Hong Kong Stocks up 5% Monday Another year coming to an end... SCROOGED? Turkey UPDATE Like the story Scrooge.... - Markets thinking about Ghosts of past (1930's, 1970's?), Present (Easy Fed that pivots), Future (???) Tipping - Deflation - About 17% of Americans are tipping less due to inflation, while only 10% are tipping more, according to a recent survey of more than 1,000 people by PlayUSA. More than half, or 54%, also said they feel pressure to leave a tip when checking out on an iPad. - While tipping at full-service restaurants has held steady, averaging 19.6%, according to Toast's most recent restaurant trends report, tips at quick-service restaurants fell slightly from a year ago to 16.8%. - When it comes to takeout, customers are tipping even less — now down to 14.4%, on average, after it climbed earlier in the pandemic, Toast found. More-Flation - The average American household is spending $433 more a month to buy the same goods and services it did a year ago, according to a Moody's Analytics analysis of October inflation data. - Mortgage rates have doubled from a year ago - Each $100,000 costs 3% more annually ($3,000 per $100k or $250 per month) Headline Weekend Through Monday - TECH WARS - Apple (AAPL) -3% extends its decline after gapping below the 50-DMA on production concerns related to the iPhone in China... recent leg lower seems to reflect Elon Musk 'waging war' on Apple's 30% app store fee  - ALSO, Elon talking about possibly inventing alternative phone if Twitter kicked out of App Store --- Phil Schiller, a longtime Apple marketing executive who leads its App Store, last week deleted his Twitter account. Schiller's move came after Musk complained on Twitter about Apple's fees, saying they're effectively "a hidden 30% tax on the internet." Black Friday - The Winner? - Amazon or  Walmart? Who got the game? - Searches for Black Friday discounts on Walmart surged 386% year over year, leapfrogging rival retailer Amazon, which last year ranked first in Captify's survey of most searched retailers on Black Friday. This year, the world's largest e-commerce company ranked fourth, behind Target and Kohl's, respectively. - Black Friday is expected to pull in $9 billion in online sales, a 1% jump from the previous year, according to Adobe. OH - AND - Thanksgiving Day online spending hit a record of $5.29 billion, an increase of 2.9% year over year, according to Adobe, which tracks sales on retailers' websites. Typically, shoppers spend about $2 billion to $3 billion online in a day, according to Adobe. - That increase was driven by demand, not inflation, according to Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe. Online sales haven't been driven higher by inflation like store sales, since e-commerce is largely made up of electronics, apparel and other durables that have stayed stable in price or declined compared to groceries, he said. Crypto News - There is NO GOOD NEWS - Brendan Blumer, known as one of the creators of the EOS blockchain and one of the richest people in the crypto space,

Companies are announcing layoffs and market cheer! Crypto craziness - FTX ripples throughout industry. End of year game plan - CTP update and more. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Big Moves - Bets are For Less Hawkish - Nasty Action in Bitcoin/Coins - Weird moves at Disney - Crazy Weather in NorthEast - Reminder of the CTP going on right now.... Market Update - Short Week, Wednesday Big Day ECO (FOMC Minutes) - Headwinds keep piling on - nothing recedes these days - OPEC news of production increase - then denial - Crypto Saga continues SERVER UPDATE - ALL MOVED, CHECKED ALL GOOD TO GO Turkey Recipe? Dinner Plans? - PICKLE FEST Weather Update - Snowfall of more than 6 feet in western New York state prompted local officials on Saturday to further restrict road travel and forced airlines to cancel flights in the Buffalo area, just ahead of the busy Thanksgiving holiday week. Twitter/MUSK - Not talking about - gotten too weird - Although TSLA at 2-year low price - Any predictions about Twitter's future? - Oh, and Trump snubs Twitter after Reinstatement (By Poll?) World Cup - Alcohol BANNED from stadium last minute - World Jewish Congress said meals cooked to Jewish dietary rules and public prayer have been banned during tournament - It is all about $$$$ - More than ever.... Why More Nuclear Talk? - What is with this? - The head of Russia's state-run atomic energy agency, Rosatom, warned on Monday there was a risk of a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, following renewed shelling over the weekend. Oil Prices - Oil prices dropped to trade near two-month lows on Monday - Dropped to $75.25 for a moment then was bought on recent double-bottom - "Apart from the weakened demand outlook due to China's COVID curbs, a rebound in the U.S. dollar today is also a bearish factor for oil prices," said Tina Teng, a CMC Markets analyst. - More importantly, OPEC is discussing increasing production by 500,000 barrels per day OPEC Reversal - OPEC news that they are going to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day. - Quickly reverses after oil prices plunge OPEC MOVES Now to China - COVID deaths - first time being reported in a while - Lockdowns - roaming - Numbers climbing and big concern that this is going to keep the slowdown around the globe - Inflationary - to a degree and deflationary at the same time - China held their interest rates steady - they are having a tough time Over to South Korea - South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of November shrank 16.7% from the same period a year ago, dragged down by weak demand for chips and from China, customs agency data showed on Monday. - The country's imports fell 5.5%, bringing the trade balance to a $4.42 billion deficit, on track for an eighth straight month in the red. - Shipments to China dropped 28.3%, while those to the United States and European Union were up 11.0% and down 1.5%, respectively. - By product, sales of semiconductors fell 29.4% and wireless communication devices lost 20.6%, but those of cars and petroleum products gained 28.6% and 16.1% each. ---- Remember the Chip shortage? Peak Oil? Note those kind of events....... Not What You Want - Philips , which has been struggling with a major recall of ventilators, on Monday flagged further problems with some machines it has previously replaced - The FDA said the company had notified it that the sound abatement foam could come loose in some refurbished models, "lowering the inspiratory pressure". - In addition, trace amounts of particulate matter were found in air pathways of some reworked ventilator...

What is happening in the "de-fi" world. Looks more like a scene from Caligula than a trading exchange. We are allowing children to play with matches - who is really the stupid one? Everyone is "F" ing everyone. Bombs flying - rumors and reality. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Hey - What happened to the Red Wave? ---- Everything is gamed... - Crypto meltdown - just one week and then... - We are not talking about Musk or Twitter - Sick of the topics - New Tax In Mass - Greed - The Favorite Sport of Americans (and the world) Market Update - HUGE YUGE Rally - One Two Punch - Inflatio0n and gridlock hopes ---- More Rally on light PPI and Manufacturing prices - - Short Squeeze too - offsided flip-flop - Yields drop, USD drops - Market FLY - China supposedly easing up on COVID restrictions again and ..... helping real estate market - Biden's College Loan Forgiveness Program shot down - DXY down 3.5% last 5 days. 10-Year under 4% You know what is going on? - Asexual Finance - - Everyone is just creating things out of nothing - screwing each other and themselves - - One big "F" Job that yields nothing - - Lesson learned with FTX - don't kids matches unless you want them to start a fire. ---- OH and massive amount of losses --- It is the NON-Boomers that are screwing this all up BOMBS - Wartime News - Seems that market freaked out at 2PM Tuesday - Reports that 2 missiles veered off course and hit town in Poland - Then there was reports that Ukraine shot down and pieces hit areas in Poland - Then reports that all unconfirmed - markets rally back Massachusetts Tax - The new law creates a 4% tax on annual income above $1 million, on top of the state's current 5% flat income tax, aiming to fund public education, roads, bridges and public transportation. - How many will be leaving? - Where will they be going to? Gridlock? - What happened to the Red Wave? - House will ensure more gridlock than we have now - even though Dems have majority in Senate - What does the Biden scramble look like now through inauguration of new leaders? FTX meltdown - Whatever we know - I don't think we know anything - Days to take down 2nd largest Crypto exchange (without any conspiracy additives) - Bitcoin/Ether down 20% last week - crypto markets in disarray - It is NOT the coin - it is the little greedy bitches that have been allowed to play in this environment with no regulation - All of a sudden there is odd money movements/withdrawals. What about the transparency???? - Now potentially $$ missing ($1billion) - Mysterious outflows and: --- High-net-worth users are paying astronomical prices for NFTs on FTX at a time when the broader crypto and digital collectible market has nosedived. In one case, a collectible that traded near $9 three weeks ago sold for $10 million on Friday. Another NFT that was similarly priced a month ago, sold for $888,888.88 this week. (Somehow a way to move $$$ from FTX?) Retailers Reporting this week - Tuesday: Home Depot and Walmart (before the bell) - Wednesday: Lowe's and Target (before the bell) - Thursday: Macy's and Kohl's (before the bell); Gap (after the bell) Oil - OPEC Cuts Growth Forecast - Trims demand growth in 2022, 2023 by 100,000 bpd - Says global supply was in surplus in second, third quarters - OPEC Oct. output fell by 210,000 bpd, exceeding pledged cut - Saudi Arabia reports smaller drop in its October output - Oil demand in 2022 will increase by 2.55 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.6%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report, down 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

Crypto crash part XXIVV. The lesson is now clear - never put your company name on a sports facility. The Dems going to have a tough day - Biden concedes that a change is coming. Markets are caught between earnings downgrades and seasonal benefits - which way will it go? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Election Day! Lots looking for split govy! - Glitch on the server - last CTP may be a problem - All about Musk - All of the time - gotta keep relevant - Employment Report - Can't stop never gonna stop! - New Server Up - lots of dev time on this migration... Market Update - Starting out November on the wrong foot - Who Will run in 2024? Markets trying to sniff out the playbook - China's stock market rally hard! - False hopes? - Incredible - FTX now needs bailout IMPORTANT UPDATE - TrendTracker: S&P 500 earnings are up 2.2% yr/yr in Q3, but they are now expected to fall 1% in Q4 - FactSet - "On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2022 was 9.1%. By September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate had fallen to 3.9%. Today, the estimated earnings decline is -1.0%." - Earnings are currently expected to return to yr/yr growth in Q1 and accelerate throughout 2023, coming in at ~5% growth for the year (down from nearly 10% not long ago). - Those estimates still seem relatively optimistic/stale if the economy continues to soften as many economists expect. - Estimates for 2023 seem likely to come down further when companies will give initial guidance for the year with Q4 results in Jan-March. Earnings Slowing BUT...... - According to the historical trends during years of mid-term elections - Gridlock on Capitol Hill would be supportive of risk assets. Being forced to compromise serves to moderate the more extreme inclinations of each party, providing a more stable policy backdrop for investors. -- -The data supports this. - US equities have averaged annual gains of 12.9% when a president has had to contend with a split Congress. - This compares with a more modest increase of 6.7% when a Democratic president has controlled both chambers. Stock Trends - Mid-Terms Twitter Chaos - $8 Blue Checkmark - what is the point? - Flip flop - now $8 checkmark waits until after the election - Job cuts - massive headcount reduction (3,600- then a reversal a few days later - Blue Checkmark warning - imposters will get banned for life ---- So fake news and hate is okay, but just don't pose as Elon? What a joke! - Musk wrote on Sunday that, moving forward, Twitter will now permanently suspend impersonators' accounts without warning if they are not clearly labeled as parody. - Advertisers pulling out "temporarily" - - Musk uses it as a great way to make excuse for layoffs - even though layoffs were happening before the advertiser embargo Crypto - And that was that - FTX has liquidity crunch after massive withdrawals - Sam Bankman Fried panics and sells all to Binance - Binance will back all transactions - Remember Fried stepped in on some of the "stablecoin" deals hoping that they could save them - Fried has been called the last resort for many crypto - the new JP Morgan -- - The FTX co-founder is on the brink of a 94% wealth wipeout - Major coins were getting crushed early in the day Tuesday on the liquidity scare - - > Rally with this news - - Seems that this whole industry has been build on hope and greed rather than any substantive math/finance Apple - Finally Succumbs - Taiwan's Foxconn, Apple Inc's biggest iPhone maker, said on Monday it was working to resume full production at a major plant in China's Zhengzhou as soon as possible that has been hit by COVID-19 curbs,

Landmines everywhere - it is a warzone when it comes to markets. October - one of the best in history - who would have thought? Talks of a windfall tax - say it ain't so Joe! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - It is a financial war-zone out there! - For all the market timers who got out on the breakdown this month - HOW IT GOING? - Fed meeting this week - The Media all a flurry (Obsessed) - Lockdowns in China AGAIN (Also reports that COVID lab accident released from Wuhan) - Big end of Week- FOMC decision and employment numbers - What are they smoking in the UK? Market Update - BIG-TOBER - DJIA up 14% - Crazy Numbers - Apple has one of its biggest days ever, Amazon, one of its worst - FANG Stock drop by record - Windfall Tax Update (Why not charge Apple? Pfizer?) - New Term Out - From Pivot to..... How Good Of  A Month? - DJIA Up 14%, Financials Up 11%, LONG Treasuries DOWN 6%,  SMALL Caps Up 12%, CHINA down 12%, Oil up 8% - VALUE still outpacing Growth - YTD -11% vs -27% Good Idea? - JP Morgan building Rental Payment system - Says checks are still most used to pay rent today - wants to digitize - The bank is piloting a platform it created for property owners and managers that automates the invoicing and receipt of online rent payments - As a result, about 78% are still paid using old-school checks and money orders, according to JPMorgan - JPMorgan has spent the past few years working on the software, called Story, which is meant to ultimately become an all-in-one property management solution. Of Course There Is This - Renters filed a lawsuit this week alleging that a company that makes price-setting software for apartments and nine of the nation’s biggest property managers formed a cartel to artificially inflate rents in violation of federal law. - The lawsuit was filed days after ProPublica published an investigation raising concerns that the software, sold by Texas-based RealPage, is potentially pushing rent prices above competitive levels, facilitating price-fixing, or both. - The lawsuit accused the property managers and RealPage of forming “a cartel to artificially inflate the price of and artificially decrease the supply and output of multifamily residential real estate leases from competitive levels.” - RealPage’s software uses an algorithm to churn through a trove of data each night to suggest daily prices for available rental units. All Eyes on the Fed - Wobble baby - Fed toning down hawkish stance but still aggressively tightening = wobble - Odds are for 0.75% hike this meeting and more than 50% chance for 0.50% in December - HOWEVER, spending still robust, employment solid Silly - Chief Economist and Economic Policy Adviser to Vice President of United States Jared Bernstein hit the wires at the top of the hour with: "Biden has endorsed Fed's policy pivot" FAANG - MASSIVE LOSSES 1 - Year FAANG Social Media - Total thrashing after earnings - SNAP +6% and META +4% lifting on the Axios report that the FCC Commissioner wants to ban TikTok - According to sources: A ban would be huge for META and SNAP, but seems unlikely. Perhaps the government will force ByteDance to sell TikTok, - Didn't we go through this once before? Brazil - All too Familiar? - Brazilian leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated President Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff election - But Bolsonao (incumbent) did not concede defeat on Sunday night - Truck drivers believed to be Bolsonaro supporters on Sunday blocked a highway in four places in the state of Mato Grosso, a major grains producer, according to the highway operator. - Brazilian markets volatile

Directionless - markets have lost all sense of trend. Volatility expands, 5% swings daily - not since the great financial crisis.. Earnings are out and we take a peek. A new Closest to The Pin announced. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Hysteria - moves widening - Future soar Tuesday overnight - U Turn after U Turn After We Turn - Feel Like Dizzy Bats - Gates are Giving Big $$$ for another Disease - ANNOUNCING - A New CTP Market Update - What's the point? Up one Day Down the next - Lows hit last Thursday for 2022 then massive bounce (5% intraday move) - 4% 10-year is recent top? - Economics, Mixed - Earnings - beating lowered bar - Apple News - Rotten This! - BlackRock: MO State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick announces MOSERS has pulled $500 million in state pension funds from BLK due to ESG initiatives  - "At the MOSERS Board of Trustees meeting in June, the board directed staff to require BlackRock to abstain from voting proxies on behalf of the plan, due to concerns with their public statements and record of prioritizing ESG initiatives over shareholder return. BlackRock refused the Board's demand to abstain from voting the plan's proxies. As a result, MOSERS proceeded with, and has now completed, the sale of all of its equity holdings with BlackRock. The funds are now primarily managed through contracts held by NISA, a St. Louis-based investment manager." ECONOMICS - NAHB Housing Market Index 38 vs. 44 Briefing.com consensus; prior 46 - September Industrial Production 0.4% vs. 0.1% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.4% from -0.2% - September Capacity Utilization 80.3% vs. 79.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 80.1% from 80.0% Goldman Says - After beating lowered earnings.... - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon cautioned Tuesday that the U.S. economy might be headed for a downturn that could make investing and business decisions more difficult. - “That environment heading into 2023 is one that you’ve got to be cautious and prepared for,” he told CNBC. - His remarks came just a few days after his counterpart at JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, also warned of looming trouble for the U.S. economy. Wow - U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt used his first Monday on the job to announce that "almost all" tax measures announced by his predecessor would be reversed. - BTW - new Finance Minister - Kwarteng ousted after his bad move.. Bank of America Earnings - Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.81 per share, $0.03 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.78; revenues rose 7.6% year/year to $24.5 bln vs the $23.46 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. - Provision for credit losses of $898 million increased $1.5 billion. Net reserve build of $378 million vs. net reserve release of $1.1 billion in Q3-21. Net charge-offs of $520 million increased 12%. Net interest income (NII)(E) up $2.7 billion, or 24%, to $13.8 billion, driven by benefits from higher interest rates, including lower premium amortization expense, and solid loan growth. - Average loan and lease balances up $114 billion, or 12%, to $1.0 trillion led by strong commercial loan growth as well as higher credit card balances. Netflix Earnings (JCD has on Game) - Big move after hours +14% - Better sub additions - much better outlook - Taking NAZ100 futures higher Someone getting Smart? - Germany plans to extend the life of three of the country's nuclear power plants to mid-April 2023, according to Bloomberg American Express September Card Metrics - Reports September U.S. Consumer Card Member loans net write-off rate of 0.8% vs 0.8% prior month (0 bps change) with consumer loans 30 days past due 0.9% vs 0.

Dvorak's prediction is looking very prescient. Markets cannot get a break - all news is bad news. More boneheaded moves by governments. Need to get some adults in charge here... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Market Rally Hard – then Fade Hard - Nobel Prized awarded! - Inverse Cramer ETF Filed - IMF Poops on and Possible Party - Scare tactics? The Wealth Advisor Headlines Market Update - Jamie Dimon – Not Bullish - DJIA hit 29,010 low on Monday - Dvorak's Prophesy - UK in Distress - Nasty action - no reprieve, no good news - NASDAQ closes at 2 year low (taking out most of pandemic move Remember we talking last episode about "breaking things" - It looked as though there was a significant breakdown of confidence (especially in the UK) --- Dvorak Prophecy comes true - Bond market BROKE in UK - poor leadership and lack of plan - US and around the world, central bankers trying to break inflation (through recession) Big Week - Economics: PPI, CPI, FOMC Minutes, Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, UMICH (WOW!) - PPI expected to come in at 0.3% MoM, CPI 0.2%  MoM - CORE PPI expected 0.4%, CORE CPI 0.5% -- EARNINGS: BANKS start the earnings season (JPM Citi) IMF - The International Monetary Fund predicts global growth will slow to 2.7% next year, 0.2 percentage points lower than its July forecast, and anticipates 2023 will feel like a recession for millions around the world. - "The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession," the report said, echoing warnings from the United Nations, the World Bank and many global CEOs. - More than a third of the global economy will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union and China — will continue to slow, the report said. - Not particularly encouraging.... NOBEL - Ben Bernanke won this year's Nobel Economics Prize on Monday for laying the foundation of how the world now manages global crises like the recent pandemic or the Great Recession of 2008 - Student of the Depression and Recessions of the Past - BUT, Did not see anything of concern during 2006, 2007, 2008 as the financial system was starting to implode - Maybe could have been worse ???? Time for Selling (Tax Loss) - Into the end of the year –  time to start thinking about  Tax Loss harvesting - That’s the term for selling a stock at a loss and using that to offset gains elsewhere in one’s portfolio. - ** Mutual Funds are going to be looking for losses and may be selling as Oct 31 is often associated with incentive under TRA 1986 Twitter Deal - On, Off, On, Off, On again - Musk now says he wants to buy at original price of $54.20 - Banks may face stiff losses - Lenders that also include Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. committed to provide $13 billion of debt financing for the deal. Their losses would amount to $500 million or more if the debt were to be sold now, according to Bloomberg calculations. --- Why did he decide to go through with deal? Wanted out of deposition? More Musk – Endless Musk - Twitter to become Super-App? - On Tuesday, Musk tweeted that buying Twitter is an "accelerant to creating X, the everything app." - Super apps is a term to describe an app that often acts as a one-stop shop for all your mobile needs. For example, you might order a taxi or food via the app and at the same time do payments and messaging. This eliminates the need to have multiple apps for different functions. Defense Stocks - A basket of five— Northrop Grumman (ticker: NOC), Lockheed Martin (LMT),

- Egotistical Narcissists as as the the Stupidity Police are not doing their job. Chinese living in ROTTING properties Some amazing technicals - historic in fact. WOW! The lowdown on Pumpkin Spice latte.. Big Business! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Egotistical Narcissists - The Stupidity Police are not doing their job - Chinese living in ROTTING properties - We have another FRAMEWORK - Sending Kamala to the DMZ line Market Update - B A D - Things are starting to break - Confidence lost as things are breaking (Currencies) ---- Fed needs to chill - and I have a few tings to say.. - China opening up Macau (Casino stocks fly) - Technical indicators!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NEXT WEEK - YOM KIPPUR - NO SHOW Rate Update - High grade money markets >2.4% - 2 year muni bond >2.5%   3.5% - 12 month treasury >4.3% - 10-year taps 4% today - 1 year CD > 3.5% JCD - FYI - DJIA @ 30,706      29,500    29,134!!!! Tropical Storm/Hurricane - Storm looks nasty - in the middle of some of the bans right now Technical as of Monday Morning (Charts) - Some very severe oversold conditions - KRI (-7) - only seen one time in recent history and that was 12/24/2019 when market bottomed - RSI all over sold - McClellan - LOW (-400) - Spearman LOW (-98) - 11 New 52 week highs -(most inverse ETFs) - VIX >30 - 447  SP500 below 200 DMA Boneheads - Huge tax cuts in the UK apparently decided on overnight and the approval of massive debt issuance. - Do we miss Boris Johnson Yet? - More things breaking The Cable More on Brit Pound - That currency move is NOT normal and should give a cold-water-slap-upside-the-head-punch-in-the-mouth wake-up call to Team Powell. - The moves that they are making and the hard line they are shaking is a bit over the top. - Unfortunately they have a much bigger regard for themselves than then should. - In fact, it appears that Team Powell is made up a gaggle of egocentric narcissists that need to come down off their collective perch's and take a look at what is really going on and why we are seeing historic moves in some financial markets. Sending Kamala - Vice President Kamala Harris will visit the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the Koreas on Thursday in a bid to show Washington's commitment to the South's security - The DMZ visit will underscore the strength of the alliance between Seoul and Washington "in the face of any threats posed" by North Korea - Does not seem like a show of strength FEELINGS ON THE FED (Not due to markets, due to policy) - A bunch of  two-toned, zebra headed, slime-coated, pimple-farming, paramecium brain, munching-on-their-own-mucus, all suffering from PETER PAN? ENVY!!!  AND -  lewd, crude, rude, bag of pre-chewed food, dudes! Lying, crying, spying, prying ultra-pigs!   (From the movie Pan - Robin William) China - Rotting - A movement of home buyers around China who have moved into what they call "rotting" apartments, either to pressure developers and authorities to complete them or out of financial necessity. - Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute estimated in July that stalled projects accounted for 3.85% of China's housing market in the first half of 2022, equivalent to an area of 231 million square metres. Can't Even - Pumpkin spice latte (PSL) -  PSL industry was worth >$500 million - - Starbucks has sold more than 600 million since inception PSA - Don't cook your chicken in NyQuil - FDA now warning about this new TikTok challenge - Possible that brands are behind this insanity? - A number of videos challenged people to cook chicken in NyQuil, which contains acetaminophen,